Soccer experiment

[quantumleap]

I just thought I would post a match in the Irish Eircom league that I've been following today. Pinnacle and another book had Drogheda at 3.84 while TheGreek and Bookmaker had this line at around 2.80. That's a full point less than Pinnacle! Do you think they had some reason to discount this side so severely? I realize it's only one game but I'm going to post additional matches that have a full point difference.

Drogheda leads 2-0 at the 55' mark.

 

[winbet]

QL,
I can only think that Paddy Power and Boylesports would be more in the picture as to the latest Irish Games, The American Books will only be feeding off their supplier and as you dont know who they are the above Two will be taking the live money.

By live money I mean People in the know as to Team selection etc, Betfair and Betdaq is a good guide here. Last week the Locals here told me Sligo was an absolute steal @ 1.91, I didnt think too much of it when the price on Betfair drifted out to 2.18 and after going ahead in the 2nd Half comfortably won 3-0. However, later I found out that the Manager of Sligo had rested 3 of his best players considering the potentially easy game and only introduced them in the 2nd half.

So the point being is someone always knows something We dont but its usually reflected at betfair.:drink:

 

[quantumleap]

QL,
I can only think that Paddy Power and Boylesports would be more in the picture as to the latest Irish Games, The American Books will only be feeding off their supplier and as you dont know who they are the above Two will be taking the live money.

By live money I mean People in the know as to Team selection etc, Betfair and Betdaq is a good guide here. Last week the Locals here told me Sligo was an absolute steal @ 1.91, I didnt think too much of it when the price on Betfair drifted out to 2.18 and after going ahead in the 2nd Half comfortably won 3-0. However, later I found out that the Manager of Sligo had rested 3 of his best players considering the potentially easy game and only introduced them in the 2nd half.

So the point being is someone always knows something We dont but its usually reflected at betfair.:drink:

Very nice bit of information. Thanks winbet. I'll be sure to tune in to betfair more often. I usually see their prices reflected at tip-ex.com.

:toast:

Now that I have re-thought the bidding process at the various books I use, it seems that TheGreek and Bookmaker may not necessarily know something about a particular match. It is more likely they are just not offering decent odds which leads to that much less of a price.

There is an Argentinian match going at 6pm Eastern time that has Pinnacle offering 5.72 for Rosario against Estudiantes. Bookmaker is offering it at 4.25. However, they have Estudiantes at 1.60 while Pinnacle has it at 1.69. Point being that Bookmaker is just offering shit lines, not that they are shying away from paying out on a team they think may win in Rosario.

 

[quantumleap]

Mothership - Premier League
West Ham pk 1.88 over Newcastle
I see Pinnacle and other books list West Ham at around 2.64 while other books (sharper? or just cheaper?) list WH at 2.25. Betfair has them listed at 2.74. I'll take the pk price here as insurance.

Reading +1/2 1.83 over Wigan
Pinnacle and others have Reading at 4.11 while they are listed at 2.90 at other books.

 

[quantumleap]

West Ham 2, Newcastle 2, Push, 0.00
Reading 0, Wigan 0, WINNER, +0.83

YTD: +1.57

 

[quantumleap]

Argentina - Primera
Lanus +1/2 +134 over Velez

Several books have +440 for Lanus. Others are down to +265.

 

[quantumleap]

Argentina - Primera
Lanus +1/2 +134 over Velez

Several books have +440 for Lanus. Others are down to +265.

Velez 3, Lanus 2, Loss, -1.00.

Another extra time goal causes a loss for me. Lanus was up 2-0 early too.



I guess I can't be too mad. It seems like this was a good pick anyway.

YTD: +0.57

Lots of picks for Sunday.

 

[quantumleap]

Perhaps I'm getting overconfident due to recent results but what the hell. This is kind of fun.

I've decided to post those teams where some (sharp?) books hang a 20% worse line (or close to it) on the 3-way line than the majority to keep bettors off their choice. If it's an away team I'm likely to take the +1/2 or even the pk feeling that the away team will be wanting to settle for a draw on the road.

Mothership - Premier League
Blackburn +1/2 -147 over Portsmouth
Higher lines for Blackburn -1/2 are at +252; other books have it at +200.

Everton pk -137 over Villa
+143 vs. +110.

Other leagues will follow.

 

[quantumleap]

Spain - Primera
Osasuna +1/2 +113 over Valencia
+339 vs +225. (114 points!)

Racing Santander +1/2 -145 over Mallorca
+222 vs. +185.

Real Madrid -1/2 -245 over Bilbao
-245 vs. -300.

Almeria +1/2 -157 over Valladolid
+221 vs. +185.

 

[quantumleap]

Italy - Serie A
AS Roma -1 -108 over Torino
-191 vs -300.

 

[quantumleap]

Germany - Bundesliga
Bayern Munchen -1/2 -119 over VfB Stuttgart
-119 vs. -200.

Wolfsburg +1/2 +123 over Leverkusen
+373 vs. +250.

 

[quantumleap]

Argentina - Primera
River Plate -1/2 -152 over Argentinos Juniors
-152 vs. -200

Boca Juniors pk +116 over San Lorenzo
+228 vs. +150

 

[quantumleap]

Argentina - Primera
Gimnasia la Plata +1/2 +130 over Newell's
+484 vs. +285.

Also some books have Newell's -1/2 at -143 while the majority has it as a worse number of -150 which would tell me that the few books are inviting action on Newell's.

 

[quantumleap]

Blackburn 1, Portsmouth 0, WINNER, +0.68
Everton 2, Villa 2, Push, 0.00
Osasuna 0, Valencia 3, Loss, -1.00
Racing Santander 1, Mallorca 3, Loss, -1.00
Real Madrid 3, Bilbao 0, WINNER, +0.41
Almeria 0, Valladolid 1, Loss, -1.00
Roma 4, Torino 1, WINNER, +0.93
Munchen 4, Stuttgart 1, WINNER, +0.84
Wolfsburg 2, Leverkusen 2, WINNER, +1.23
River Plate 4, Argentinos Juniors 2, WINNER, +0.66
Boca Juniors 0, San Lorenzo 1, Loss, -1.00
Gimnasia La Plata 0, Newell's 1, Loss, -1.00

Today: -0.25

YTD: +0.32

All the favorites won by more than 1 goal today.

 

[quantumleap]

The numbers below each pick are explained in post #28 in this thread.

Germany - Bundesliga 2
Freiburg -1/2 +110 over Greuther Furth
+110 vs. -125.

Portugal - Superliga
Vitoria Setubal -1/2 -153 over Estrela Amadora
-153 vs. -200

Denmark - SAS Ligaen
Aalborg -1 +114 over Horsens
-165 vs. -222

Sweden - Allsvenskan
IFK Goteborg -1 -164 over Sundsvall
-250 vs. -333

 

[quantumleap]

Perhaps I got a bit too greed by taking -1 instead of -1/2 on the Scandinavian matches.

Aalborg 1, Horsens 0, Push, 0.00
Goteborg 1, Sundsvall 0, Push, 0.00
Freiburg 3, Greuther Furth 2, WINNER, +1.10
Vitoria Setubal 0, Estrela Amadora 0, Loss, -1.00

Today: +0.10

YTD: +0.42

 

[Betting4Fun]

It looks so far as close to be around the 50% mark,i wonder if you could perhaps fine tune and try to reduce your total plays here by perhaps looking again at all your winners and see if could find something else in common that might narrow the total play list and possibly get more winners,i know its all in all matter of luck as even with endless research things can always go the other way and get some bumps,but not sure if there is any way to try and narrow the play list to hopefully contains more of the winners you had so far than the losers :think2:

Very nice to watch

 

[quantumleap]

It looks so far as close to be around the 50% mark,i wonder if you could perhaps fine tune and try to reduce your total plays here by perhaps looking again at all your winners and see if could find something else in common that might narrow the total play list and possibly get more winners,i know its all in all matter of luck as even with endless research things can always go the other way and get some bumps,but not sure if there is any way to try and narrow the play list to hopefully contains more of the winners you had so far than the losers :think2:

Very nice to watch

B4F:
I swear, you and I are on the same wavelength sometimes.

I'm looking at putting stricter conditions on the bets. I no longer take the dog if it's only a 40-point difference. I figure some books are just limiting their exposure by cutting down 40 points on the dog so that really isn't a good indicator of a possible winner IMO.

As far as the amount of games, it really doesn't take a whole lot of time to determine if a match is a play or not. I've been trying to limit the matches lately to the major players like EPL, Primera, etc. But I feel the more matches I list the better indicators I have to narrow things down. I've already narrowed down a little bit.

The favorites lately are coming through although I don't know how long that will last. As you may have noticed I played all favorites today. But seriously there were no dog indicators out there.

I will play the dogs if I find a difference of 100 points unless it's something like +600 to +500. Drogheda's difference was between +284 and +180 and Lanus' difference was between +440 to +265 so perhaps I'll limit dogs to a 100-point difference and nothing above +500.

Thanks for the input. It helps to be able to type things out. Typing it out sometimes takes my thought process in different directions or sometimes helps my thoughts gel better than if I didn't type them out.

 

[quantumleap]

I'm going to try this with the Japanese league since I see such a large discrepancy in one of their matches:

Japan - J-League
Tokyo Verdy/Albirex Niigata under 2 1/2 +111
+111 vs. -150

Oita Trinita/FC Tokyo over 2 1/2 +100
+100 vs. -145

 

[quantumleap]

Japan J-League
Nagoya Grampus Eight -1/2 +131 over Kawasaki
+131 vs. -111