Just a point to note, Sevilla is now at -195/-222. I want to see how successful teams are that start out with a spread of 50+ and then have the spread lessened.
Brazil - Serie A
Figueirense -1/2 -125 over Coritiba
-125/-181
This is a good case of where a book is being safe by hanging this -181 line. I don't see this spread that often on favorites of -125. The prices for Coritiba -1/2 are +337/+325 and the draw prices are +260/+265. While the book that is being safe is discounting the Coritiba line it's not nearly the same amount I usually see for this price. That tells me the book that is being safe is taking a position to keep you off Figueirense and offering you a decent price on the opponent and the draw.
Brazil - Serie A
Figueirense -1/2 -125 over Coritiba
-125/-181
This is a good case of where a book is being safe by hanging this -181 line. I don't see this spread that often on favorites of -125. The prices for Coritiba -1/2 are +337/+325 and the draw prices are +260/+265. While the book that is being safe is discounting the Coritiba line it's not nearly the same amount I usually see for this price. That tells me the book that is being safe is taking a position to keep you off Figueirense and offering you a decent price on the opponent and the draw.
Line movement alert: Figueirense -1/2 has now moved to -222 in some places. :scared:
Argentina - Primera
Tigre pk -123 over Atletico Lanus
+146/+105 for Tigre and +174/+185 for Lanus
I realize this isn't 50 points. However, I believe this isn't much different than a spread of -200/-250. The safe book not only is discounting the Tigre pick but is also giving more for Lanus.
Had them with Real parlayed for easy winner today/night.
Great stuff you got here,keep up the good work,sure next
season with that method we will be raking some $$$ !!
Are there any sites in particular which cover lines for daily games all at once
or you have to jump from one bookie site to the next to see their lines?
In other words where do you compare lines between several books
and how many in total you weeding through daily?
Had them with Real parlayed for easy winner today/night.
Great stuff you got here,keep up the good work,sure next
season with that method we will be raking some $$$ !!
Are there any sites in particular which cover lines for daily games all at once
or you have to jump from one bookie site to the next to see their lines?
In other words where do you compare lines between several books
and how many in total you weeding through daily?
Hey B4F, where ya been? Yeah, that Seville had me worried getting behind 0-1 but they sure came through didn't they?
:toast:
I'm planning on using this for the summer leagues as well although there's not as much action as during the European leagues.
I use www.tip-ex.com and www.betbrain.com which are both excellent sources. However, even they leave out a couple books so I do have to jump between screens.
I'm only playing the matches that Americans can play since I don't want to post matches that I'm not playing so I'm only checking those. It doesn't take very long. Maybe 15 minutes at a time depending upon the day. And then I do it maybe once in the afternoon, once at night and if I have time at work I do it once in the morning.
Thanks for the heads up,I am still around,just took break posting soccer,still do(post) some Girls Tennis if can call it really tennis..LOL
You doing great job here,and the total record without the experiments around during the early stages could have been even way better by now ,now that you got the system tweaked some since the first baby steps in the beginning.
I think you got a good thing here,next season will be exciting,Keep it coming.
<TABLE class="ocbase oc"><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE class=ochead><TBODY><TR><TD class=ocg>FBFIN Veikkausliiga-08</TD></TR><TR><TD class=oct><SCRIPT>document.write(create_local_time(2008,4,19,16,0,0,1));</SCRIPT>May 19, 2008 19:00:00</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocdivider colSpan=3></TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3><TABLE class=ocptbl><TBODY><TR><TD class=ocp>HJK vs Tampere Utd</TD><TD class=ocl>Finnair Stadium (908 km)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocdivider colSpan=3></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD class=ocoalink><IFRAME src="http://www.tip-ex.com/book_signup.php" frameBorder=0 width=120 scrolling=no height=60></IFRAME></TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocdata vAlign=top><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>odds</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>three way</TD></<TR></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD><TABLE><TBODY><TR class=ocpr title="Initial average odds: 2.026 3.207 3.477"><TD>2.031</TD><TD>3.210</TD><TD>3.509</TD><TR><TD>2.050</TD><TD>3.250</TD><TD>3.500</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD><TABLE><TBODY><TR class=ocpr title="Initial average probabilities: 45 29 26"><TD>45</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>26</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD><TABLE><TBODY><TR class=ocpr><TD>0.97</TD><TD>0.97</TD><TD>1.05</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD><TABLE><TBODY><TR class=ocpr><TD>99</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD></TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD><TD title=Bet>b</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD><TD title=Bet>b</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR><TR><TD>h/a</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD><TABLE class=ocpatable><TBODY><TR><TD class=ocb>Nordicbet</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>Betfair</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>PinnacleSports</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>Ladbrokes</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>Betsson Exchange</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>Expekt</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>Eurobet</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>Mansion88.com</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>bet-at-home</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>Betsson Sportsbook</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>Unibet</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>Redbet</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>Doxxbet</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>StarPrice</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>Betway</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>Stan James</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>myBet.com</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>Sportingbet</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>Bet 365</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>GoldVictory</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>Veikkaus</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ocb>Oddset</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD><TABLE class=ocotable id=oc_365541_0><TBODY><TR class=oco id=bo_a25984278><TD>2.150</TD><TD>3.200</TD><TD>3.400</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a25897938><TD>2.140</TD><TD>3.400</TD><TD>3.950</TD><TD>*</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a26010113><TD>2.130</TD><TD>3.320</TD><TD>3.870</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a26009601><TD>2.100</TD><TD>3.250</TD><TD>3.400</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a25989811><TD>2.100</TD><TD>3.200</TD><TD>4.000</TD><TD>*</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a25991167><TD>2.100</TD><TD>3.200</TD><TD>3.550</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a25975214><TD>2.100</TD><TD>3.250</TD><TD>3.250</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a25989363><TD>2.050</TD><TD>3.100</TD><TD>3.200</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a25975497><TD>2.050</TD><TD>3.200</TD><TD>3.300</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a25978419><TD>2.050</TD><TD>3.250</TD><TD>3.450</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a25980744><TD>2.050</TD><TD>3.250</TD><TD>3.550</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a25980845><TD>2.010</TD><TD>3.190</TD><TD>3.490</TD><TD>*</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a25980063><TD>2.000</TD><TD>3.250</TD><TD>3.430</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a26010341><TD>2.000</TD><TD>3.250</TD><TD>3.400</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a25979829><TD>2.000</TD><TD>3.250</TD><TD>3.650</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a25993688><TD>2.000</TD><TD>3.200</TD><TD>3.500</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a26000372><TD>2.000</TD><TD>3.250</TD><TD>3.500</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a25976469><TD>2.000</TD><TD>3.200</TD><TD>3.500</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a25971442><TD>2.000</TD><TD>3.250</TD><TD>3.750</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a26007322><TD>1.950</TD><TD>3.200</TD><TD>3.600</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a25989021><TD>1.850</TD><TD>3.150</TD><TD>3.600</TD></TR><TR class=oco id=bo_a25984566><TD>1.850</TD><TD>2.800</TD><TD>2.850</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD><TABLE class=ocprtable><TBODY><TR class=ocpr><TD>43</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>27</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>46</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>25</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>46</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>25</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>44</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>27</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>46</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>24</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>44</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>26</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>44</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>28</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>43</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>28</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>44</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>27</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>45</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>27</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>45</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>26</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>45</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>26</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>45</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>27</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>45</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>27</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>46</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>25</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>46</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>26</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>46</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>26</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>46</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>26</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>47</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>25</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>46</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>25</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>48</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>24</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>43</TD><TD>29</TD><TD>28</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD><TABLE class=ocextable><TBODY><TR class=oce><TD>0.97</TD><TD>0.91</TD><TD>0.89</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.97</TD><TD>0.97</TD><TD>1.04</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.96</TD><TD>0.95</TD><TD>1.01</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.95</TD><TD>0.93</TD><TD>0.89</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.95</TD><TD>0.91</TD><TD>1.05</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.95</TD><TD>0.91</TD><TD>0.93</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.95</TD><TD>0.93</TD><TD>0.85</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.93</TD><TD>0.89</TD><TD>0.84</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.93</TD><TD>0.91</TD><TD>0.87</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.93</TD><TD>0.93</TD><TD>0.90</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.93</TD><TD>0.93</TD><TD>0.93</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.91</TD><TD>0.91</TD><TD>0.92</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.90</TD><TD>0.93</TD><TD>0.90</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.90</TD><TD>0.93</TD><TD>0.89</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.90</TD><TD>0.93</TD><TD>0.96</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.90</TD><TD>0.91</TD><TD>0.92</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.90</TD><TD>0.93</TD><TD>0.92</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.90</TD><TD>0.91</TD><TD>0.92</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.90</TD><TD>0.93</TD><TD>0.98</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.88</TD><TD>0.91</TD><TD>0.94</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.84</TD><TD>0.90</TD><TD>0.94</TD></TR><TR class=oce><TD>0.84</TD><TD>0.80</TD><TD>0.75</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD><TABLE class=ocretable><TBODY><TR class=ocpr><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>99</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>97</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>96</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>89</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>93</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>91</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>88</TD></TR><TR class=ocpr><TD>80</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD title="updated 1 minutes ago" width=7 bgColor=#55aa11 height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD title="updated 11 hours 21 minutes ago" width=7 bgColor=red height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD title=live width=7 height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD width=7 bgColor=gray height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD title="updated 3 minutes ago" width=7 bgColor=#55aa11 height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD title="updated 27 seconds ago" width=7 bgColor=#55aa11 height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD width=7 bgColor=gray height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD title="updated 1 minutes ago" width=7 bgColor=#55aa11 height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD title="updated 1 minutes ago" width=7 bgColor=#55aa11 height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD title=live width=7 height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD title="updated 1 minutes ago" width=7 bgColor=#55aa11 height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD title="updated 11 hours 16 minutes ago" width=7 bgColor=red height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD title="updated 1 minutes ago" width=7 bgColor=#55aa11 height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD title="updated 3 minutes ago" width=7 bgColor=#55aa11 height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD title="updated 4 minutes ago" width=7 bgColor=#55aa11 height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD title="updated 2 minutes ago" width=7 bgColor=#55aa11 height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD title="updated 1 minutes ago" width=7 bgColor=#55aa11 height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD title="updated 1 minutes ago" width=7 bgColor=#55aa11 height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD width=7 bgColor=gray height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD title="updated 3 minutes ago" width=7 bgColor=#55aa11 height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD title="updated 1 minutes ago" width=7 bgColor=#55aa11 height=7> </TD></TR><TR><TD title="updated 2 minutes ago" width=7 bgColor=#55aa11 height=7> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
OK,Perhaps you an help me out,for instance,that match taking place tomorrow in Finland,as far as i recall you suggested 50 points difference as indication for anything going,so ,would that be in that case away win or draw in that case as we have about 50 pts gap on away or draw between highest and lowest lines among these books?
I see 60 pts gap for draw and 80 pts gap for away,is that how it works for start and then if it is a dog play you skip and play just favorites that way?
OK,Perhaps you an help me out,for instance,that match taking place tomorrow in Finland,as far as i recall you suggested 50 points difference as indication for anything going,so ,would that be in that case away win or draw in that case as we have about 50 pts gap on away or draw between highest and lowest lines among these books?
I see 60 pts gap for draw and 80 pts gap for away,is that how it works for start and then if it is a dog play you skip and play just favorites that way?
Guys, this one has been on my mind off and on all day. I just couldn't figure out why this went from -181 to -222. Here's what I found at another site:
http://www.futebolinterior.com.br/news.php?id_news=44558
Coritiba without: Jéci, Marlos and Keirrison injured. Carlinhos Paraíba is suspended and Rodrigo Mancha crashed with car.
watched the Figueria match yesterday and just a phenomenal job by their keeper to reject about 15 Coritiba chances to draw even with an extra man. Fig really dominated 11 on 11 but an ugly tackle left them a man short for 30' and Coxa did everything they could to find the net. Goalie should be Brazil's player of the week
Which channel did you happen to catch this on?
It sounds to me that this wasn't necessarily a sure thing. That just goes to show that moderation should be practiced even when a line moves so strongly near match time. What still makes me wonder is why most books kept this at -117. Did they not have the information on the missing Coritiba players?
:toast:
OK, since it's rather slow this time of the week it's time I stepped into the way-back machine and did some figuring on my past picks.
In post #53 on 5/3 I posted that home teams did a lot better than road teams. However, I didn't figure in the fact that favorites did well no matter if they were on the road or were at home. Between the day I kept both sets of numbers (4/27) and the last day I posted road picks (5/3), if I bet -1/2 on only those teams with a 50 point spread or more the favorites went 7-1, +2.71 with Derry City being the only loss. This is both road and home. So I may take a look at road favorites in the future.
I changed my picks from both road and home teams to just home teams on 5/4. From 5/4 to 5/18 favorites won 13-3, +3.75 and the dogs won 13-13-2, -0.76. So I may have to address the issue of just playing favorites, either home or both.
In post #53 on 5/3 I posted that home teams did a lot better than road teams. However, I didn't figure in the fact that favorites did well no matter if they were on the road or were at home. Between the day I kept both sets of numbers (4/27) and the last day I posted road picks (5/3), if I bet -1/2 on only those teams with a 50 point spread or more the favorites went 7-1, +2.71 with Derry City being the only loss. This is both road and home. So I may take a look at road favorites in the future.
I changed my picks from both road and home teams to just home teams on 5/4. From 5/4 to 5/18 favorites won 13-3, +3.75 and the dogs won 13-13-2, -0.76. So I may have to address the issue of just playing favorites, either home or both.
I wanted to point out one match today in the Swedish Superettan league that I won't bet on but will mention it in passing. It's Bunkeflo at home vs. Landskrona Bois. LB has won both road matches while Bunkeflo has lost both their home matches. The price on some books has gone from +263 to +280 while other books are staying put at +200. This would fit the system.
However, I am refining the system to not just bet blindly but to look at each particular situation. Until this league's season progresses a little further I think I'll pass on these types of matches.
However, I am refining the system to not just bet blindly but to look at each particular situation. Until this league's season progresses a little further I think I'll pass on these types of matches.
