Sean McVay is your typical lazy entitled millennial..

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NBA is even more homogenized than NFL. Udoka turned Celts around, so he gets jammed up on some sex scandal and that's gonna be a problem? Right? Nah not really. Didn't miss a beat.

Popovich is actually a good example of someone that could've left at the right time similar to Phil Jackson. If Pop leaves after 2017ish, he's considered the best coach of all time by many (atleast modern era, we'll say post 1980)

Now people see him with egg on his face and he's just lumped in as 1 of the best with the rest really. Riley, Phil, Brown. I doubt he goes down as superior to them really. Not that anyone cares who the best coach is or anything.

I think guys like Spoelstra are great coaches, but edge is small. Bigger edge is probably in player development....Heat always find guys whereas the Bucks never find anyone. But even that could be variance/dry up sooner than later.
Moneyball with basketball was discovering the value of the 3 point shot---

Problem being it wasn't really discovered quick enough by a select number of teams, Kinda got discovered by all teams at once.
 

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D'Antoni got somewhat there---but even he didn't push it where it needed to be pushed back then.
 

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If the NFC sucked in 2020, it sucked in 2021-22 just the same - and still does.

The only NFC QB not named Aaron Rodgers who could have challenged the Rams was Brady, and the Rams edged his Bucs 30-27 in OT.

PatsFan already mentioned the miracle against the Niners.

Then, somehow they got to face the Bengals, instead of the winner of the NFL's marque matchup, which anyone would admit was football on a different level.

Like I said, lucky...VERY lucky.

No team is winning shit with Matthew Stafford. Hell, he's already been replaced by Mayfield!

Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl. I suppose the next argument in line is, giving up 2 firsts and a third would have been "worth it" for him too.

Give me a break.
 

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Funny looking back and see guys like andre drummund and greg monroe being fought over to who can pay them 100 million dollar contract. And it wasn't even all that long ago.
 

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Who cares? The year Manning won it all, the Chargers were a better team than the Pats and blew it on a fluke fumble by Marlon McRee. Then he got to play Rex Grossman Bears in the superbowl.

Dilfer is a weird name to go to considering the Ravens had 1 of the best defenses of all time and it was 22 years ago in a watered down year itself


The Rams had a good runout, but even with that runout, Goff playing the way Stafford played in those games is a pretty big leap. I'd have to see it to believe it.


NFC was fine the last few years, probably better than it was from 2015-2019 actually, this year with Brady/Rodgers getting old at the same time and the Rams struggling did it really fade. The Rams ran good for 2021 in that the Rams didn't have to go to Lambeau and the Bucs team they played was banged up w/o their best OL/WR. Of course they ran good with that, they also ran good to win 3 games by 3 points. But if they have Goff, that probably isn't happening.
 

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havent read the whole thread...but...yeah...are The Pats reverting to the mean? no playoffs? is Beli still a genius? does he need more time to turn that younga into the 'next brady'..


LMFAO..

who wins the Super Bowl? kinda hoping Buffalo ...between the Leafs and Buff SOMETHING good has to come....no?
 
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Moneyball with basketball was discovering the value of the 3 point shot---

Problem being it wasn't really discovered quick enough by a select number of teams, Kinda got discovered by all teams at once.
I still think its stupid to give up an easy fast break 2 in order to shoot a 3

I know, 3 is better than 2 but it seems like more people miss those 3's when they could have had the wide open 2

Its like going for 2 in football in the first half of the game when you dont need it and you end up chasing pts
 

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I still think its stupid to give up an easy fast break 2 in order to shoot a 3

I know, 3 is better than 2 but it seems like more people miss those 3's when they could have had the wide open 2

Its like going for 2 in football in the first half of the game when you dont need it and you end up chasing pts
In analytics the only thing better than a 3 is a dunk.

People use to believe the closer you got to basket to get shot off the better and the 3 was fool's gold.

But that is only true if you can get right to the basket.

You have seen Giannis, right? ;)
 

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I disagree. You need luck to win a super bowl.

Maybe not in the super bowl but the path that got you there. Maybe a certain play in an earlier playoff game. Even a lucky play in the regular season that got you to be a 1 seed?

Lets look at the 2020 bucs who won in New Orleans and Green bay in an EMPTY stadium.

If the stadium was full of fans, would the bucs still have reached the super bowl?

Other lucky games could be the pats winning the super bowl when they played KC in the AFC championship game and Chris Jones was offsides in overtime

There are WAY more situations as well but dont feel like thinking about them at the moment.

Guess i'm just being a lazy milenial?
Luck is definitely a key factor. I mean, odds are if you are winning with trophy at the end you probably were on the right side of more 50/50 stuff than not. Not always, but that's probably a part of it.

But that's not new or anything

A lot of overlooked human components not factored in as well when it comes to playoff runs, and they are magnified more in sports like football with single elimination format. Very common to see regular season juggernauts tighten up in higher leverage moments, for example. Near impossible to measure the intangible shit, but reality is it matters and definitely has played significant role in how some of these playoffs have played out

People analyze sports as Team A is this, and Team B is that, etc....just doesn't work that way.
 
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If the NFC sucked in 2020, it sucked in 2021-22 just the same - and still does.

The only NFC QB not named Aaron Rodgers who could have challenged the Rams was Brady, and the Rams edged his Bucs 30-27 in OT.

PatsFan already mentioned the miracle against the Niners.

Then, somehow they got to face the Bengals, instead of the winner of the NFL's marque matchup, which anyone would admit was football on a different level.

Like I said, lucky...VERY lucky.

No team is winning shit with Matthew Stafford. Hell, he's already been replaced by Mayfield!

Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl. I suppose the next argument in line is, giving up 2 firsts and a third would have been "worth it" for him too.

Give me a break.
Dilfer haha

Next up Brad Johnson

That era of football, you didnt need a star QB

2000- Dilfer
2001- unknown Brady
2002- Brad Johnson

You really didnt need a powerhouse QB back then. Just a good running game and defense

Hell, Jay Fiedler, Ricky Williams and a strong dolphins defense were actually good
 

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Who cares? The year Manning won it all, the Chargers were a better team than the Pats and blew it on a fluke fumble by Marlon McRee. Then he got to play Rex Grossman Bears in the superbowl.

Dilfer is a weird name to go to considering the Ravens had 1 of the best defenses of all time and it was 22 years ago in a watered down year itself


The Rams had a good runout, but even with that runout, Goff playing the way Stafford played in those games is a pretty big leap. I'd have to see it to believe it.
If Goff was so awful, how did he even make it to the Super Bowl?

Surely the 2021 Rams weren't the 2000 Ravens, but still a very good balanced team no matter who was QB.

You CAN win with a "game manager" type QB, although it will still be an uphill battle to beat an elite QB in good form.

The Rams would have been lucky to win a playoff game in the AFC with how unbalanced the conferences are right now.
 

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I never even liked Stafford much so it feels weird defending him. I actually looked it up when the trade was made and all I said was "I think its fine for going for it"


You click on eat of those box scores and watch the highlights, you're gonna have a tough time talking yourself into a team thinking Goff can do that after his '19 and '20 seasons. Or thinking he could do it now even.


This is the thread the day of the trade...A lot of opinions that vary from "Stafford sucks" to "Goff sucks", lol

For the record, I don't agree with Raiders72 "You put Stafford on KC and there is not much difference" :)
 

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I still think its stupid to give up an easy fast break 2 in order to shoot a 3

I know, 3 is better than 2 but it seems like more people miss those 3's when they could have had the wide open 2

Its like going for 2 in football in the first half of the game when you dont need it and you end up chasing pts
Depends on the situation,...what kind of fast break/who is on court, etc. maybe it is better to shoot the 3 if you have a 38-40% guy getting a look with a big guy who could clean it up under the bucket if miss, vs. Westbrook pulling up, etc.

Shooting more 3's makes sense as long as you're getting high enough shot quality that points per shot is higher than 2, but in reality if you allocate your shots to too much 3's or 2's it's a lot easier for defenses to guard you

In big picture, defenses will adjust and we probably see the game adjust as a result to less running/chucking 3's
 

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Don't get me wrong on Brady and Belicheck. They are great. But if you run it back they aren't winning 6 super bowls together.

If you run Peyton Manning back i bet he wins more than 1(forgetting broken down year when he absolutely was carried)

it's now about having an edge. not that you are all that much better. Simple +/- EV

Basketball and earlier football is different. Jordan is still winning 6 the cowboys are still winning 3 of 4.
 

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I never even liked Stafford much so it feels weird defending him. I actually looked it up when the trade was made and all I said was "I think its fine for going for it"


You click on eat of those box scores and watch the highlights, you're gonna have a tough time talking yourself into a team thinking Goff can do that after his '19 and '20 seasons. Or thinking he could do it now even.


This is the thread the day of the trade...A lot of opinions that vary from "Stafford sucks" to "Goff sucks", lol
The Stafford/Goff trade was good for both teams. Pretty clear

Same category as Kevin Love/Andrew Wiggins trade IMO
 

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What about Brady's last Super Bowl?

The Chiefs were the clear favorites against the Bucs, but Mahomes just decided not to show up. Very lackluster un-Mahomes-like play until the 4th quarter.

Did the Chiefs think the Bucs would be a cakewalk after emptying the tank against the Bills?

Bucs and Rams - two lucky NFC Super Bowl champs from an inferior conference. Shit happens.
 

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Yeah, again I don't even like Stafford that much but bit of a leap to think Goff is going 40 TD's and then has 3 b2b2b 4th quarter game winning drives to win the superbowl. I gotta give him his credit for that and not assume Jared Goff could do it.

A few teams lost that made their road easier? That's football....Not like Joe Burrow is Rex Grossman.
 

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What about Brady's last Super Bowl?

The Chiefs were the clear favorites against the Bucs, but Mahomes just decided not to show up. Very lackluster un-Mahomes-like play until the 4th quarter.

Did the Chiefs think the Bucs would be a cakewalk after emptying the tank against the Bills?

Bucs and Rams - two lucky NFC Super Bowl champs from an inferior conference. Shit happens.

They were a 3pt man fav man.

3 points....They dominated the game

Mahomes also sucked 4th Q/OT vs Cincy...Shit happens

He also sucked for 3 Q's vs SF in the SB and turned it on late.

You get to the highest levels and it isn't gonna be chopped liver.


"This team didn't showup" "This team fucked too many strippers the night before" "This team thought it would be a cakewalk"


This is just unprovable ESPN sports radio nonsense so you can find a narrative you want. it isn't analytical.
 
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What about Brady's last Super Bowl?

The Chiefs were the clear favorites against the Bucs, but Mahomes just decided not to show up. Very lackluster un-Mahomes-like play until the 4th quarter.

Did the Chiefs think the Bucs would be a cakewalk after emptying the tank against the Bills?

Bucs and Rams - two lucky NFC Super Bowl champs from an inferior conference. Shit happens.
Line was only 3 points
 

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Don't get me wrong on Brady and Belicheck. They are great. But if you run it back they aren't winning 6 super bowls together.

If you run Peyton Manning back i bet he wins more than 1(forgetting broken down year when he absolutely was carried)

it's now about having an edge. not that you are all that much better. Simple +/- EV

Basketball and earlier football is different. Jordan is still winning 6 the cowboys are still winning 3 of 4.
The John Maddens, Vince Lombardis and Bill Belichicks would never buy into this new age nonsense. Certainly not in a game as emotionally-charged as football.

You can't measure clutch factor/"gamer" using simple EV and analytics.

Big game players make the biggest plays in the biggest games.

Some players rise to the occasion under pressure, others are CRUSHED by it.

It's what separates the GREATS from the pack of "very good"
 

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