NCAAF Systems

[rolltide]

nice tightener but would KO your fit on GT

tA(rushing yards) / tA(rushes) >= 4.914 and 3.488 >= oA(rushing yards) / oA(rushes) >= 3.0312 and C and date > 20101010 and opo:rushing yards > 88

SU:	82-4-0 (22.95, 95.3%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	65-20-1 (6.65, 76.5%)	avg line: -16.3	+6: 75-11-0 (87.2%)	-6: 38-47-1 (44.7%)	+10: 78-7-1 (91.8%)	-10: 28-57-1 (32.9%)
O/U:	50-34-2 (3.86, 59.5%)	avg total: 58.1	+6: 34-50-2 (40.5%)	-6: 66-18-2 (78.6%)	+10: 29-56-1 (34.1%)	-10: 71-14-1 (83.5%)

 

[1958]

looks good

 

[rolltide]

this one KO's clemson....

on a 17-2 ATS run as well.... bet ON conference teams on 3-game win streak that have covered last two games by at least 40 points and last 3 games by at least 56 points (on GT)

p:ats margin + pp:ats margin > 40 and p:ats margin + pp:ats margin + ppp:ats margin >= 56 and p:W and pp:W and ppp:W ... and C
SU: 51-11-0 (17.18, 82.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 50-12-0 (9.37, 80.6%) avg line: -7.8 +6: 51-11-0 (82.3%) -6: 38-21-3 (64.4%) +10: 55-7-0 (88.7%) -10: 32-29-1 (52.5%) O/U: 8-7-1 (4.00, 53.3%) avg total: 61.4 +6: 6-10-0 (37.5%) -6: 10-6-0 (62.5%) +10: 5-11-0 (31.2%) -10: 12-3-1 (80.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.8 204.5 34.3 21.2 295.9 1.8 9.8 11.4 10.4 8.4 36.8 Opp 32.3 121.4 38.4 21.2 253.4 2.3 4.4 7.1 5.8 7.8 19.6
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Nov 22, 2014 Saturday 13 2014 LTCH OLDD away Nov 15, 2014 Saturday 12 2014 GTCH CLEM home 2.5 60.0

la tech will fit next week....

 

[tmader7]

Clemson is a TOTALLY different team with Deshuan Watson at the helm and he's starting Saturday. Stoudt's job was to "just win baby," which he was able to do the games Watson missed with the broken finger....but damn was it winning fugly! Tread real light here men.

~T~

 

[scorpion896]

RT, how do you put in teams in NCAA system? Looks a lot different then NFL. Example, team=STANFORD or team=ND for either stanford or notre dame work correctly

 

[rolltide]

RT, how do you put in teams in NCAA system? Looks a lot different then NFL. Example, team=STANFORD or team=ND for either stanford or notre dame work correctly

just type in "team and season=2014" and you will see how the dbase formats each for college. works same way, just they have freaky codes for teams and no shortcuts. aka not as user friendly....(tap the highlighted SDQL above team code and it will put in alphabetical order for you)

http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/query?output=default&sdql=team+and+season%3D2014&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

 

[In2Sports]

Can you run how teams do in the following game after allowing 100 yards or less
and
on the other side how teams do after gaining only 100 yards or less in the next game

I am going through box scores manually but it will take much time

Thanks

 

[rolltide]

Can you run how teams do in the following game after allowing 100 yards or less
and
on the other side how teams do after gaining only 100 yards or less in the next game

I am going through box scores manually but it will take much time

Thanks

i've just run it for last 7 years....no sense in seeing what happened to them in 1987

teams that ran for <100 last game:
p:rushing yards < 100 and season >= 2007

SU:	1253-1594-0 (-3.14, 44.0%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	1351-1405-60 (-0.24, 49.0%)	avg line: 2.9	+6: 1821-957-38 (65.6%)	-6: 931-1852-33 (33.5%)	+10: 2063-717-36 (74.2%)	-10: 686-2102-28 (24.6%)
O/U:	1263-1387-50 (0.02, 47.7%)	avg total: 53.8	+6: 898-1779-23 (33.5%)	-6: 1693-974-33 (63.5%)	+10: 676-1998-26 (25.3%)	-10: 1966-693-41 (73.9%)

teams that held opponent to <100 previous game:
po:rushing yards < 100 and season >= 2007

SU:	1871-1303-0 (4.58, 58.9%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	1588-1518-54 (0.58, 51.1%)	avg line: -3.9	+6: 2126-993-41 (68.2%)	-6: 1111-2003-46 (35.7%)	+10: 2419-713-28 (77.2%)	-10: 809-2311-40 (25.9%)
O/U:	1432-1584-71 (-0.19, 47.5%)	avg total: 53.4	+6: 1018-2030-39 (33.4%)	-6: 1947-1104-36 (63.8%)	+10: 767-2291-29 (25.1%)	-10: 2242-815-30 (73.3%)

teams that ran for <100 last game vs opponent that held their previous opponetn to <100
po:rushing yards < 100 and season >= 2007 and p:rushing yards < 100

SU:	226-201-0 (1.50, 52.9%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	215-202-8 (0.99, 51.6%)	avg line: -0.4	+6: 293-128-4 (69.6%)	-6: 150-265-10 (36.1%)	+10: 330-90-5 (78.6%)	-10: 111-308-6 (26.5%)
O/U:	185-224-8 (-0.56, 45.2%)	avg total: 52.4	+6: 135-278-4 (32.7%)	-6: 251-158-8 (61.4%)	+10: 97-315-5 (23.5%)	-10: 308-105-4 (74.6%)

 

[rolltide]

L USC (53-18, 63-27)
L East Carolina (44-12 if -2.5 to +3 & 86-30 if +/-2.5)
W Oregon St (20-3)
W Miss State (26-3)
W Texas (71-29, & 66-29 if line b/w -3 and +4)
L Oklahoma (71-29)
W Iowa (71-29)
L Ga Southern (66-29 if line b/w -3 and +4, & 86-30 if +/-2.5)
L Nevada (66-29 if line b/w -3 and +4, & 44-12 if -2.5 to +3.5, & 86-30 if +/-2.5)
W Missouri (66-29 if line b/w -3 and +4)
L BYU (63-18)
W W Michigan (63-18, 109-47)
W Marshall (41-17, 109-47 if -21+)
L TCU (44-12)
L Ohio St (44-12)
L LSU (86-30 if +/-2.5)
X Texas State (86-30 if +/-2.5)
L Auburn (44-12 if -2.5 to +3.5, & 86-30 if +/-2.5)
L Pitt (35-18, & 86-30 if +/-2.5)
L C Michigan (63-27)
L TCU (30-5)
Fla State (66-29/44-12/86-30) canceled by Miami (56-10)
Clemson (66-29, 86-30) canceled by GT (50-12)

L UCF/TUL over (33-6)
W PITT/NC over (43-13 only if total<68)
W APP/AKST over (43-13 only if total<68)
L SC/FLA over (43-13)
L VT/DUKE over (43-13 only if total>42)
W ALA/MST under (36-13 only if line<=9)
W ARK/LSU under (36-13)
L UTEP/NT under (36-13)
L UK/TEN under (60-26 if total 50.5-56.5)
W MEM/TUL under (70-29)
W BYT/UNLV over (33-6)
W WMU/EMU over (33-6)
W CMU/MIA over (33-6 only if -16.5 or bigger fav)
L WIS/NEB under (43-17 if total>51)
W USU/NMX under (43-17 if total>51)

sides 7-13, totals 9-6 .... 109-92-6 YTD

 

[BigdaddyQH]

109-92-6 figures out to slightly over 54%. That sure is a lot of work for minimal positive results.

 

[rolltide]

since people don't seem to like the query cut/paste I'll put system explanation, system history record, 2014 record (teams that fit this week)



OPPOSE winning favs off close road loss & playing a winning team, 31-5 ATS, 1-0 2014 (on BGSU wed)
OPPOSE previously unbeaten teams off first loss turning it over a bunch, 67-22 ATS, 7-2 2014 (on VANDY)
OPPOSE favs off OT game where they failed to cover by DD vs opponent off a cover, 5-25-1 ATS, 0-1 2014 (on CAL, on LOU)
PLAY ON small dogs with good rushing and overall defense, 125-53 ATS, 12-5 2014 (on LOU)
PLAY ON home fav off away conference win vs opponent off b2b2b conference wins, 73-29 ATS, 2-2 2014 (on UL-Laf)
PLAY ON big conf fav (24-35 points) off b2b conference blowout wins, 91-37 ATS, 3-2 2014 (on BAY if 24-35 fav)
PLAY ON big home fav (21-35 points) off huge conference blowout win, 111-47 ATS, 6-3 2014 (on BAY, on UCF, on Col St, on Mich St if 21-35 fav)
PLAY ON conference favs with great rush defense vs opponent that can't run, 30-6 ATS, 3-1 2014 (on UCF)
PLAY ON dog after game as fav and 1-AA game before that, 107-39 ATS, 8-1 2014 (on UTSA)
PLAY ON conference teams on 2+ streak with 40+ ats margin L2 & 56+ ats margin L3, 51-12 ATS, 1-1 2014 (on La Tech)
PLAY ON home team off b2b great defense and with at least double revenge, 75-29 ATS, 1-1 2014 (on ARK)
PLAY ON home conf dog off b2b home losses, 24-6 ATS, 2-0 2014 (on NM State)
UNDER total 50.5-56.5 after a blowout loss & facing a team that just scored 42+, 60-27 under, 2-3 under 2014 (TUL/ECU under only if 50.5-56.5)
UNDER conference team that just won SU away as a DD dog, 29-8 under, 7-2 2014 (APP/ULL under)
UNDER in close lined game (small fav or up to 2.5 dog) with Notre Dame under Kelly, 25-4 under, 3-1 2014 (ND/LOU under)
OVER big home favs (19+) of a bye week, 49-20 over, 11-7 over 2014 (HOU/TUL over, COLST/NM over, BAY/OSU over) - all 3 meet 37-8 o/u subset


Bowling Green (31-5)
Vanderbilt (67-22)
California (25-5)
Louisville (25-5, 125-53)
UL Lafayette (73-29)
Baylor (91-37 as 24-35 fav, 111-47 as 21-35 fav)
Central Florida (30-6, also 111-47 as 21-35 fav)
Colorado State (111-47 as 21-35 fav)
Michigan State (111-47 as 21-35 fav)
UT San Antonio (107-39)
La Tech (51-12)
Arkansas (75-29)
New Mexico State (24-6)

TUL/ECU under (60-27 if 50.5-56.5 total)
APP/ULL under (29-8)
ND/LOU under (25-4)
HOU/TUL over (49-20, 37-8)
CSU/NM over (49-20, 37-8)
BAY/OSU over (49-20, 37-8)

 

[Lostyet]

Thx RT. Good stuff as always.

 

[In2Sports]

Thanks for running that,

 

[rolltide]

good article on correlation b/w recruiting and on-field performance
http://regressing.deadspin.com/chart-which-ncaa-football-teams-outplay-their-recruit-1640831522

There was a significant correlation (r=0.77) between recruiting and on-field rankings. The mean difference between recruiting and on-field rankings was 16.6, and the median difference was 14.8. Arizona and Nebraska had the smallest discrepancies with a 0.2 difference, while Navy had the largest with a 57.4 difference. Recruiting obviously isn't an exact science and has its flaws. But given there's more than 120 teams in FBS college football, these rankings give a decent idea of where teams will sit in upcoming years.

 

[8ate]

good article on correlation b/w recruiting and on-field performance
http://regressing.deadspin.com/chart-which-ncaa-football-teams-outplay-their-recruit-1640831522

There was a significant correlation (r=0.77) between recruiting and on-field rankings. The mean difference between recruiting and on-field rankings was 16.6, and the median difference was 14.8. Arizona and Nebraska had the smallest discrepancies with a 0.2 difference, while Navy had the largest with a 57.4 difference. Recruiting obviously isn't an exact science and has its flaws. But given there's more than 120 teams in FBS college football, these rankings give a decent idea of where teams will sit in upcoming years.

..ty, again for gr8 thread..> ACC has FSU and Clem as best recruiters; and lately have been dominant in ACC..gl

 

[mws]

since people don't seem to like the query cut/paste I'll put system explanation, system history record, 2014 record (teams that fit this week)

Well, some of us love the query cut/paste, but it's your thread so do it your way. Thanks for sharing all this.

 

[Biz]

OVER big home favs (19+) of a bye week,

Does Oregon qualify?

 

[1958]

OVER big home favs (19+) of a bye week,

Does Oregon qualify?

Oregon qualifies but first 8 weeks bring the best results...

H and rest>8 and line<=-22 and week<=8

ATS:	101-53-4 (5.54, 65.6%)

and when line goes to -19 percentage drops but winnings increase.
H and rest>8 and line<=-19 and week<=8

ATS:	122-73-4 (4.46, 62.6%)

from week 9 and further on , system looks bad....

 

[mason456]

Great stuff thanks again

 

[rolltide]

OVER big home favs (19+) of a bye week,

Does Oregon qualify?

yeah, probably wasn't a line up when i ran it because now both col state and oregon are showing.... will update list in a bit. will happen when you run it on wed or thu of course....