NCAAF Systems

[rolltide]

guess it was just ORE i was missing there

Bowling Green (31-5)
Vanderbilt (67-22)
California (25-5)
Louisville (25-5, 125-53)
UL Lafayette (73-29)
Baylor (91-37 as 24-35 fav, 111-47 as 21-35 fav)
Central Florida (30-6, also 111-47 as 21-35 fav)
Colorado State (111-47 as 21-35 fav)
Michigan State (111-47 as 21-35 fav)
UT San Antonio (107-39)
La Tech (51-12)
Arkansas (75-29)
New Mexico State (24-6)

TUL/ECU under (60-27 if 50.5-56.5 total)
APP/ULL under (29-8)
ND/LOU under (25-4)
HOU/TUL over (49-20, 37-8)
CSU/NM over (49-20, 37-8)
BAY/OSU over (49-20, 37-8)
COL/ORE over (49-20, 37-8)

would normally cancel out UTSA with the stuff i posted in the motivated bowl thread but i don't feel like pasting it here and adding those others http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1006281

 

[rolltide]

W Bowling Green (31-5)
L Vanderbilt (67-22)
L California (25-5)
W Louisville (25-5, 125-53)
L UL Lafayette (73-29)
L Baylor (91-37 as 24-35 fav, 111-47 as 21-35 fav)
W Central Florida (30-6, also 111-47 as 21-35 fav)
W Colorado State (111-47 as 21-35 fav)
W Michigan State (111-47 as 21-35 fav)
L UT San Antonio (107-39)
L La Tech (51-12)
W Arkansas (75-29)
L New Mexico State (24-6)


W TUL/ECU under (60-27 if 50.5-56.5 total)
W APP/ULL under (29-8)
L ND/LOU under (25-4)
W HOU/TUL over (49-20, 37-8)
W CSU/NM over (49-20, 37-8)
W BAY/OSU over (49-20, 37-8)
L COL/ORE over (49-20, 37-8)


sides 6-7, totals 5-2 (if you clicked on that link to other thread i posted those 5-win favs vs opponent off a win went 3-0...south carolina, western kentucky, and san diego state...now 13-1-1 since 2006 season)


.... 120-101-6 YTD

 

[rolltide]

speaking of bowl motivation we'll start out with this one since there is a tuesday fit

PLAY ON 5-win favs or small dogs in game #12 if not off a demotivating blowout loss and facing an opponent with 5-9 season losses. 24-5 ATS (on Ohio -2 TUE, Akron FRI, & on Tenn, UAB, Fresno, Northwestern on SAT)

 

[rolltide]

in case any of you want to join the cause....

-----Forwarded Message-----
From: UAB GREENBACKERS
Sent: Nov 24, 2014 12:07 PM
To: greenbackers UAB
Subject: The Future of UAB football
Good morning all. As you have probably heard, the future of our football program is in doubt. My understanding is that a decision will likely be made within the week as to whether we will continue to field a team. It is imperative that we show support right now if we hope to continue the progress that has been made this year. I would ask each of you to send an email to President Watts, Brian Mackin and Chancellor Witt expressing your desire for the continuing of UAB football. I am including their email addresses below. Thanks and Go Blazers.

President Ray Watts- president@uab.edu & rwatts@uab.edu
Chancellor Robert Witt- witt@uasystem.ua.edu
Brian Mackin, athletic director - bmackin@uab.edu

 

[rivercitybirdie]

wow, this is an amazing thread that i hadn't clicked on before...

and exactly the kind of analysis i like....

i really HATE the whole 8 factors that don't make any intuitive sense together and voila they produce a 23-1 backtested ATS record. so much stuff like this out there.

i like simple intuitive rules and this thread delivers

 

[rivercitybirdie]

that correlation between recruiting and performance article was very very interesting. i wonder about that stuff all the time.

interesting that state universities (non-football talent states i'd add) seem to underperform and non-bcs schools seem to outperform.

i wonder though about comparing the classes of miami-ohio, SJSU and LM. seems like you are comparing a bunch of 2 star guys for which there isn't that much info... at that level i wonder if coaches are just taking who they like and rely less on ratings... one thing i do think is that SEC states have basically unlimited pools of basic athletes (basically very large black populations that play football.. vs. some other states with large black pops but not nearly as much high school football)

 

[rivercitybirdie]

so i did a little ATS analysis myself....

the 10 teams whose recruiting has improved the most the last 5 years..... slope of ranking/avg ranking. very simplistic. maybe i'll divide by beginning ranking next...

anyway, top 5 56.4% ATS. exclude SMU (the only significant ATS loser in top 10) and you have 63.4%... top 10 teams 61.5%

great ATS teams:
TCU, Utah, MCS, Baylor

good ATS teams:

cincy

ok ats teams:

houston, vandy, navy, stanford

terrible ats team: SMU

anyway, v interesting i think.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

How do your angles and trends (of which there are over 500 that I know of) deal with injuries? Do you even figure them in? I ask because you suggest taking Northwestern on Saturday. They are currently an 8 1/2-9 oint favorite, even though they have lost their starting QB for the game. I think that Illinois, who is 2-3 S/U and 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games, is a very good value against a crippled Northwestern team who has a home record of 2-4 S/U this season. How do injuries fit in to your angles and trends?

 

[rolltide]

PLAY ON 5-win favs or small dogs in game #12 if not off a demotivating blowout loss and facing an opponent with 5-9 season losses. 24-5 ATS (on Ohio -2 TUE, Akron FRI, & on Tenn, UAB, Fresno, Northwestern on SAT)

UNDER single digit dogs that were 22+ dogs in LY's meeting. 13-40 o/u, 5-11 o/u 2014 (FSU under, UTEP under, W MICH under)

PLAY ON away fav off a loss where they scored 6 or less vs opponent off close game. 34-16-3 ATS, 0-0 2014 (on LSU)

UNDER total 50.5-56.5 home team off blowout loss vs opponent that just scored 42+. 27-60-1 o/u, 3-2 2014 (Miss under, So Bama under if total in range)

OPPOSE winning favorites off a close road loss vs winning opponent. 6-31-1 ATS, 2-0 2014 (on RICE)

OVER home favs of 19+ off a bye week. 52-21 o/u, 14-8 2014 (OU/OSU over) - also meets 40-9 o/u subset

OPPOSE home conf rested dog off a loss vs normal rested fav. 77-30 ATS, 9-4 2014 (on CINCY)

PLAY ON conference dogs with revenge vs opponent off home dog win, 46-19-2 ATS. 0-1-1 2014 (on GA State)

OPPOSE teams off OT double digit spread non-cover vs opponent off spread cover. 26-6 ATS, 1-2 2014 (on RICE, on UVA)

UNDER total 52+ with home team off b2b great defense and opponent off 26+ scored. 18-44-2 o/u, 3-6 2014 (GT under)

PLAY ON 4-9 point dogs with great rush defense. 125-53-6 ATS, 11-4 2014 (on STAN, on FLA, on BYU)

team specifics....
PLAY ON notre dame as a dog vs opponent off loss. 17-4 ATS
OPPOSE USC in a non conference home game line within 7 of pk. 15-3-1 ATS (ND are 8-0-1 ATS in this spot)

W Ohio -2 (24-5)
Akron (24-5)
Tennessee (24-5)
UAB (24-5)
Fresno (24-5)
Northwestern (24-5)
Rice (31-6, 26-6)
Virginia (26-6)
Cincinnati (77-30)
Georgia St (46-19)
Ohio St (121-63)
Florida if 4-9 dog (125-53)
Stanford if 4-9 dog (125-53)
BYU if 4-9 dog (125-53)
Notre Dame (17-4, 15-3)

FSU/FLA under (40-13)
UTEP/MTSU under (40-13)
WMU/NoILL under (40-13)
MIS/MISST under only b/w 50.5-56.5 (60-27)
SoBAMA/NAVY under only b/w 50.5-56.5 (60-27)
GT/UGA under (44-18)


if i come up with any interesting game 12 specific ones, will post later. one to be aware of that can be used for teasers or ML parlays....5-6 dogs of 10+ are 1-23 SU trying to get bowl eligible and just 8 covers. Pitt, Michigan, Kentucky, and Oregon State in that spot this week

 

[savage55]

OVER home favs of 19+ off a bye week. 52-21 o/u, 14-8 2014 (OU/OSU over) - also meets 40-9 o/u subset

You left this one off the list Roll

 

[rolltide]

OVER home favs of 19+ off a bye week. 52-21 o/u, 14-8 2014 (OU/OSU over) - also meets 40-9 o/u subset

You left this one off the list Roll

because game isn't this week. pulled OU off the sides list but missed the total. dec 6 game

 

[savage55]

because game isn't this week. pulled OU off the sides list but missed the total. dec 6 game

I just noticed that myself.

What about LSU though? Not listed but they fit one of your systems. Thanks

 

[rolltide]

you are correct, savage...sorry about that. i cut and pasted it without that one at the top but they definitely fit under the away conference fav off horrible offensive loss

for saturday:

this one will be interesting.... actually both teams fit it, which is pretty incredible, so will come down to the line to see what side things fall on

if trickett plays i would think wvu will be a big enough fav that they'll be a play against....incredibly rare to see this type of system possibly opposing both sides. wild (system is to oppose single digit favs or small dogs off b2b fav losses if opponent not off a dog loss last game

game number > 4 and date>19991101 and -9 < line < 2.5 and p:FL and pp:FL and C and rest < 11 and (opL) = False

it's the tightener of game number>4 and date>19991101 and -9<line<2.5 and p:FL and pp:FL and rest < 11

 

[1958]

rt
this system of yours is also strange...
http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/qu...6+and+9+>=+o:losses+>=+5&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

what to pick: VIR or VTCH?

from a total of 29 plays for all years and this only year you have 8... dont know what to say.

 

[1958]

you are correct, savage...sorry about that. i cut and pasted it without that one at the top but they definitely fit under the away conference fav off horrible offensive loss

for saturday:

this one will be interesting.... actually both teams fit it, which is pretty incredible, so will come down to the line to see what side things fall on

if trickett plays i would think wvu will be a big enough fav that they'll be a play against....incredibly rare to see this type of system possibly opposing both sides. wild (system is to oppose single digit favs or small dogs off b2b fav losses if opponent not off a dog loss last game

game number > 4 and date>19991101 and -9 < line < 2.5 and p:FL and pp:FL and C and rest < 11 and (opL) = False

it's the tightener of game number>4 and date>19991101 and -9<line<2.5 and p:FL and pp:FL and rest < 11

I think you have to go with the better team (highest margin or at least positive margin)
http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/qu...+=+False+and+season>2000&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

 

[djheire]

Just wanted to shout out and say thanks for always posting these stats.... Haven't been very active this fall, but will probably be back in the groove for cbb and be back on the pops website soon.

 

[rolltide]

rt
this system of yours is also strange...
http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/qu...6+and+9+>=+o:losses+>=+5&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

what to pick: VIR or VTCH?

from a total of 29 plays for all years and this only year you have 8... dont know what to say.

yeah, but i let this one make my choice.... OPPOSE teams off OT double digit spread non-cover vs opponent off spread cover. 26-6 ATS, 1-2 2014 (on RICE, on UVA)

 

[savage55]

you are correct, savage...sorry about that. i cut and pasted it without that one at the top but they definitely fit under the away conference fav off horrible offensive loss

All good Roll I played them anyway and it worked out just fine..

Kap and my Niners looked like crap though.. Mainly Kap!! I dont think he is the guy to get the job done.. Kap and Roman need to hit the road and unfortunately I think Harbaugh is gone with Roman and we have to keep that loser Kap...

 

[rolltide]

with line now out at +13 we can put Iowa State on the list....

game number > 4 ... and -13.5 < line < 2.5 and p:FL and pp:FL and C ... rest < 9
SU: 16-23-0 (-2.54, 41.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 5-31-3 (-6.91, 13.9%) avg line: -4.4 +6: 18-20-1 (47.4%) -6: 2-37-0 (5.1%) +10: 24-12-3 (66.7%) -10: 2-37-0 (5.1%) O/U: 8-7-1 (4.88, 53.3%) avg total: 52.0 +6: 7-9-0 (43.8%) -6: 10-6-0 (62.5%) +10: 7-9-0 (43.8%) -10: 10-4-2 (71.4%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.3 140.2 35.8 21.3 260.1 2.3 7.0 9.4 5.6 6.9 25.6 Opp 38.6 149.6 34.6 20.6 256.1 1.9 8.0 6.9 5.6 6.7 28.1
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Nov 29, 2014 Saturday 14 2014 WVA IWST away -13.0 63.0

 

[rolltide]

i gotta say...that's a pretty nasty push with Iowa State up 21-7 and getting those 13. but, bet shit = get shit