NCAAF Systems

[rolltide]

a little note ... historically a solid play was to take underdogs vs the ML who not only have the better points per game defense but also the better yards per play defense. nothing matched yesterday (csu and ull had better ppg defense but not better ypp defense) but should be 4-6 plays coming up this yera:

Memphis (have moved to favorite)
C Michigan
Rice (have moved to favorite)
Rutgers
Miami FL (have moved to favorite)
Ole Miss
Boise St
Mich St
Arkansas St


i have conflicting with western kentucky otherwise I either match or am neutral on rest so as of today the ML dog plays would be:


Rutgers, Miss, Boise, Michigan St, Arkansas St

 

[GoSooners]

The only trouble with Boise is they are taking a pretty big class jump. Something that needs to be considered strongly after what Utah did to CSU yesterday...

 

[rolltide]

The only trouble with Boise is they are taking a pretty big class jump. Something that needs to be considered strongly after what Utah did to CSU yesterday...

agree, a simple cross-reference with SOS would be recommended

 

[Biz]

So Today, Dec 23

Marshall and Under
Navy and Over

 

[richporter]

bump

 

[Salsantorre]

here's the list. choose wisely...not much for over players



BET ON neutral team off b2b comfortable wins, including blowout 2 games ago, vs opponent off a shootout last game. 36-12 ATS, 22-10 BG (on ORE, on WAS)


OPPOSE small favs or dogs, neutral or away, badly outrushed in b2b games 15-29 ATS but 2-0 BG (oppose UCF)


UNDER non-conf game with at least one team at 9+ wins and at least one team went OVER last game. 44-88-2 o/u, 36-71-2 BG o/u (USU/UTEP under, COLST/UTAH under, BYU/MEM under, MARSH/NoILL under, NCST/UCF under, VT/CIN under, NEB/USC under, ASU/DUKE under) ... tightener, total 46.5-73.5 (all games qualify).... 32-77-2 o.u, 24-62-2 BG o/u


OPPOSE Notre Dame as a late season dog vs opponent off a win. 5-20 ATS, 2-10 BG (on LSU)


OVER december games where team covered b2b fav games. 33-19-1 o/u, 16-7 BG o/u (SDSU/NAVY over, CIN/VT over, TCU/MIS over)


UNDER december bowl game good rushing team vs good rush defense. 36-70-2 o/u (USU/UTEP under, COLST/UTAH under, WMICH/AFU under, BYU/MEM under, NCST/UCF under, ASU/DUKE under, NEB/USC under, UGA/LOU under)


UNDER bowl game where one team has at least 10% better WP %. 30-60 o/u (USU/UTEP under, COLST/UTAH under, RICE/FRES under, LT/ILL under, NCST/UCF under, VT/CIN under, TCU/MISS under, WISC/BARN under, MIZZ/MINN under, WAS/OKST under). best if opponent won final game of season.... 13-34 o/u (USU, COLST, LT, UCF, CIN, TCU, WAS games)


UNDER bowl game two good teams, high total (53-73.5), combined to avg over 62 ppg. 23-58-1 o/u (COSLT/UTAH under, BYU/MEM under, NoILL/MARSH under, NEB/USC under, DUKE/ASU under, UGA/LOU under, MIS/TCU nder, GT/MSU under, BST/ZONA under, MSU/BAY under, WIS/BARN under, KST/UCLA under, AKST/TOL under). best if DEC bowl game, 11-37 o/u


OPPOSE bowl favs with 14 days or more rest than opponent. 11-29 ATS (on NAVY)


UNDER any bowl game where both defenses allow 21-29.25 ppg. 20-41-2 o/u (ULL/NEV under, COLST/UTAH under, WMICH/AFU under, NEB/USC under, ATM/WVA under, BOISE/ZONA under, MISS/MINN under, IOWA/TENN under, KST/UCLA under). best if offenses combined to avg 61+ ppg, 8-28-1 o/u (NEV, UTAH, AFU, NEB, aTm, Zona, UCLA games fit)


OPPOSE & UNDER MAC bowl teams off a 6+ point loss to end the season. 1-12 ATS / 3-10 o/u (fits WKY and under, AFU and under, SoBama and under)


PLAY ON academies in bowl games vs opponent allowing 30 or less ppg. 23-8 ATS (on AFU, on NAVY)


OPPOSE 9+ win bowl teams off 3 straight wins and covers. 24-8 ATS (on NC State, on Marshall)


OPPOSE power-5 favs of 8+ in december bowl games. 32-11-2 (on Maryland)


OPPOSE Big 12 bowl teams (single digit dog or fav) vs opponent off a loss. 7-23 ATS (on aTm) ... subset, 1-7 vs SEC


PLAY ON big dog (7.5+) in december bowl games <.750 vs <.750 teams if opponent didn't cover final regular season game by more than a TD. 37-12-3 (on UTEP, on ND?). best if team covered their final reg season game, 22-5-1 ATS (neither fit though ND likely to be 7.5+ anyway)

Unless I am missing something that second play opposing UCF makes no sense since neither team was badly out rushed in their last two games. Just the opposite.

 

[Hammerman15]

Thanks for the help and posting roll, have a good christmas

 

[rolltide]

Unless I am missing something that second play opposing UCF makes no sense since neither team was badly out rushed in their last two games. Just the opposite.

not missing anything i just typed it very quickly and doesnt make much sense. it's about taking the rushing yards difference b/w these two teams in last two games and betting on the much hotter running game. Last game rush yards for ncst 358 vs ucf's 134 and 2 games back ncst 304 vs ucf's 140, so difference was more than 150 in each.


a couple more on the running bowls....

play on good rushing teams vs bad rushing defenses off a good rush defense game, 70-37 ATS (on Va Tech) - just 2-4 in bowl games

oppose dogs with poor yards per carry vs excellent yards per carry defense. 62-112-3 ATS (on Boston College) - both previous bowl teams that fit this lost easily but hasn't happened since 2009

 

[Salsantorre]

not missing anything i just typed it very quickly and doesnt make much sense. it's about taking the rushing yards difference b/w these two teams in last two games and betting on the much hotter running game. Last game rush yards for ncst 358 vs ucf's 134 and 2 games back ncst 304 vs ucf's 140, so difference was more than 150 in each.


a couple more on the running bowls....

play on good rushing teams vs bad rushing defenses off a good rush defense game, 70-37 ATS (on Va Tech) - just 2-4 in bowl games

oppose dogs with poor yards per carry vs excellent yards per carry defense. 62-112-3 ATS (on Boston College) - both previous bowl teams that fit this lost easily but hasn't happened since 2009

Ah, ok thanks for clarifying.

 

[rolltide]

an under i missed:

UNDER, game with team (ND) off huge amount of yards allowed vs opponent with >200 yards differential in last game. 9-53-1 o/u, 0-2 o/u BG (ND/LSU under) - team with terrible defense last game also in a 17-2 ATS run in this system

 

[savage55]

an under i missed:

UNDER, game with team (ND) off huge amount of yards allowed vs opponent with >200 yards differential in last game. 9-53-1 o/u, 0-2 o/u BG (ND/LSU under) - team with terrible defense last game also in a 17-2 ATS run in this system

Under is probably good here but I dont feel good about ND. Im not even sure if they will score. I think LSU mops them up pretty easy. You have LSU as a system play so ND now cancel that out? Im assuming ND is team with terrible defense last game

 

[rolltide]

Under is probably good here but I dont feel good about ND. Im not even sure if they will score. I think LSU mops them up pretty easy. You have LSU as a system play so ND now cancel that out? Im assuming ND is team with terrible defense last game

doesn't cancel out because of post #310 but would cancel out if +7.5.... so LSU a play only at -7 or lower.... (see the last system in post #298).


good start with the better defensive points & better yards per play dogs. Rice line dropped back to pk and won, Rutgers easy win, and helped cancel WKY so pleased with that area so far. doubt miami will drop back to pk or dog today so nothing there until boise

 

[rolltide]

bowls so far...sides 6-2, totals 5-7. try to keep in order....


sides
Va Tech 70-37 & also in better defense as pk or dog
Boston Coll 112-62
Miami only if pk or dog
Texas A+M 23-7, 7-1
LSU 20-5 (only if -7 or lower)
Maryland 32-11
Ole Miss only if pk or dog
Boise St only if pk or dog
Mich St only if pk or dog
Oregon 36-12
Washington 36-12
Arkansas St only if pk or dog


totals
Duke under 88-44, 70-36, 58-23
Nebraska under 88-44, 70-36, 58-23, 41-20, 28-8
aTm under 41-20, 28-8
LSU under 53-9
Georgia under 70-36, 58-23
Boise St under 58-23, 41-20, 28-8
Ga Tech under 58-23
Wisconsin under 60-30
Missouri under 60-30, 41-20
UCLA under 58-23, 41-20, 28-8
Washington under 60-30, 34-13
Toledo under 58-23




interesting note for teasers and ml parlays that i posted on twitter yday before Illini game. B10 dogs of 6.5+ are 1-20 SU in L21 bowl games, covering 7. only nebraska won SU vs UGA last year. Maryland, Ohio State to come and possibly Wisconsin and Minnesota as well.

 

[mws]

a little note ... historically a solid play was to take underdogs vs the ML who not only have the better points per game defense but also the better yards per play defense. nothing matched yesterday (csu and ull had better ppg defense but not better ypp defense) but should be 4-6 plays coming up this yera:

Memphis (have moved to favorite)
C Michigan
Rice (have moved to favorite)
Rutgers
Miami FL (have moved to favorite)
Ole Miss
Boise St
Mich St
Arkansas St


i have conflicting with western kentucky otherwise I either match or am neutral on rest so as of today the ML dog plays would be:


Rutgers, Miss, Boise, Michigan St, Arkansas St

Wouldn't Clemson qualify?