MLB Fantasy News 2013

HacheMan · May 15, 2013

Granderson's return alters Yankees' lineup

Eric Karabell

What interests me most about the return of New York Yankees outfielder Curtis Granderson to the lineup is not, oddly enough, the two-time 40-home run, 100-RBI player himself. Granderson is going to play regularly. He’s going to hit home runs and strike out an awful lot, none of it surprising eager fantasy owners, and hopefully he’ll steal enough bases to really impact that category, as well. Regardless, I had no qualms about activating him right away for his season debut Tuesday night, even against the great King Felix Hernandez, which resulted in little help for fantasy owners. At least he’s back.
Actually, what I want to see is how Yankees skipper Joe Girardi -- and honestly, looking at that shell of a daily lineup it’s hard to believe this team is in first place, so credit where it’s due -- handles his future lineups now that the Grandy man is back, because that’s going to affect quite a few fantasy owners, as well. The Yankees still have precious little on the left side of their infield until Derek Jeter and Kevin Youkilis return, since their four starting-caliber (on the surface) outfielders can’t play there. Granderson, Vernon Wells, Brett Gardner and Ichiro Suzuki do appear worthy of regular at-bats, and then there’s the lefty-hitting designated hitter, Travis Hafner, with a higher OPS than every Yankee except second baseman Robinson Cano, and he led him entering Tuesday night. What will Girardi do?

A sore right shoulder injury to the normally durable Hafner -- OK, that’s a lie, as he’s about as brittle as they come -- settled the issue Tuesday night, as he sat and Vernon Wells could bench his outfielder's mitt, with Gardner splitting Granderson and Suzuki in the outfield. Frankly, fantasy owners don’t care much which outfield spot Granderson handles. Where he hits is important. The lineup was basically muffled by Hernandez for six innings, but a healthy Hafner would have created quite a conundrum. After all, Girardi can’t sit him against right-handed pitching. Gardner has been leading off and stealing bases. The rejuvenated Wells is New York’s second-best option on the Player Rater (after Cano) and the lone right-handed power hitter, so it makes little sense to sit him.

The correct answer is that the underwhelming Suzuki should be sitting, not Wells or Hafner or Gardner, who hasn’t been special but is a better center fielder and a reasonable leadoff choice. Suzuki offers no power and little plate discipline; his OBP is a disappointing .289. Despite what appeared to be a gentle rebirth offensively upon his cross-country trade from the Seattle Mariners to Gotham last year, Suzuki hasn’t been an above-average offensive player since 2010. He homered off Kansas City Royals right-hander Wade Davis last week, his second of the season, and then proceeded to go 0-for-4 with a strikeout in each of the next three contests. He should be on the bench most days, frankly, though name value probably counts for something. Since the potential Hall of Famer -- can’t say that about the other Yankees outfielders -- is owned in 57 percent of ESPN standard mixed leagues and is among the most added outfielders over the past week, I’d call that pertinent information.

Regardless, Granderson might have been a top-30 pick had he not had his forearm broken in his first at-bat of spring training, but it happened and he missed six weeks. He’s back and should provide fantasy owners with the numbers they’ve become accustomed to, with little aftereffects of the injury. Meanwhile, first baseman Mark Teixeira could see his serious wrist problem linger all year. Jeter’s ankle is also likely to be a factor even when he returns. Granderson should be fine. He hit cleanup Tuesday, which I actually like; Cano is this team’s best hitter -- and it’s not particularly close -- and he should continue to bat second, which is smart. I happen to think Wells is not a fluke, despite the fact he hasn’t been this good in a really long time, so splitting the lefties, while overrated in the big picture, makes sense here. Yes, Wells’ outstanding line drive rate should regress in time, but he’s drawing walks, hitting many singles to the opposite field and he’s just outside the top 10 among all batters in well-hit average, which is quite impressive. I’m not selling high on Wells, which I admit I find shocking.

It should be pointed out that Gardner hasn’t been that much better than Suzuki, but each is a left-handed hitter, so it’s not like a platoon makes sense. Using well-hit average again to prove a point, of 175 qualified hitters, they are two of the bottom 10 in that statistic. Gardner walks more -- and strikes out a lot more -- but has also been one of the better defensive center fielders in the game. While defensive metrics remain far from perfect, Granderson is not a strong defensive center fielder, and he looked comfortable in left field Tuesday.

Hafner’s situation bears watching; he’s owned in only 20 percent of ESPN’s 10-team leagues, which isn’t odd, but those in daily formats can speak to his value when the Yankees face a right-handed pitcher. A week ago Hafner’s ownership was doubled, but a recent slump can change everything. Nobody is expecting Hafner to play in 150 games this season. He averaged 86 of them the past five seasons. Still, the guy can still rake. Wells will DH with Hafner out this week, but here’s to wondering what will happen when Hafner is healthy. If I was counting on Suzuki, I’d start looking for a replacement.

HacheMan · May 15, 2013

Moreland no longer Rangers' 'weak link'

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

A month ago, the focus on Texas Rangers first baseman Mitch Moreland was on how he was the weak link in a strong lineup and should be replaced in the lineup by hotshot prospect Jurickson Profar. Ian Kinsler would slide from second base to first base and all would be right with the offense. Well, all is right with the Texas offense because Moreland was left alone to hit; on Tuesday night in Oakland, he smashed two more home runs, including a 10th-inning blast that ultimately stood for the winning run in an exciting 6-5 victory.It's merely the ides of May and no slugger has managed to reach the bleachers more this month than the oft-overlooked Moreland. He has smacked six home runs in 49 at-bats in May, hitting .347 with a .796 slugging percentage, and his next home run will give him double digits on the season. In 2011-12, Moreland averaged 15.5 home runs and 50.5 RBIs with 791 total at-bats. While few would have projected him to emerge for a 30-homer campaign and contribute mightily in batting average (he's a career .268 hitter), he's certainly on that track.
<OFFER>Moreland showed excellent plate discipline as a rookie in 2010, walking 25 times in 47 games, striking out only 36 times, but has abandoned this approach since then. Even now he's not exactly Joey Votto at the plate, drawing walks at a rate just below 7 percent, but he's hitting quite a few more fly balls than before, at the expense of line drives and ground balls. This tends to help a guy hit home runs, but figures to be unsustainable, as well. Still, Moreland is on pace for 37 home runs.</OFFER>
At this point, I'd say a 25-homer season is surely within reach, and he could probably hit .270, so it might actually be time to see what you can get via trade. Those numbers are clearly worth owning in 10- and 12-team leagues, and are why Moreland is ESPN's most added first baseman, finally passing one-trick pony James Loney (who leads the majors in batting), though Moreland remains available in more than half of ESPN's leagues. The case can be made for Moreland over some older, disappointing first basemen like Ryan Howard, Paul Konerko and Adam LaRoche, as well as younger, disappointing Kansas City Royals enigma Eric Hosmer, but I'm not quite there yet. I'd say he's right in that class, but the others will all improve at some point, as well.

The home runs Moreland delivered Tuesday were a really nice sign for another reason: They came on the road. While home/road splits tend to be examined closely with Colorado Rockies hitters, Rangers options should come under more scrutiny. Moreland now has five of his nine home runs on the road, along with eight of his nine doubles, though in nearly double the at-bats. That's good because it means more home playing time is pending. His batting average in home games is more than 100 points higher, but as long as he tempts us with power consistently, we can live with that.

While we're on the topic, Profar is slowly turning his season around at Triple-A Round Rock. He's hitting .250 overall with two home runs and six stolen bases in 34 games, but recently came off a thumb injury and is hitting .341 over 10 games. He could be hitting .500 in that span and still there's nowhere to play him in Texas. I ranked Profar No. 249 in my mid-May rankings -- updated staff rankings will be posted this week -- but admit it's not looking good for a promotion before August.
Box score bits (NL): Cincinnati Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto fanned four over five shutout innings for Class A Dayton on Tuesday, and could return to the big league mound this weekend in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, rookie sensation Tony Cingrani had his Thursday start pushed to Friday; he has been dealing with a sore shoulder, which could land him on the DL and allow Mike Leake to keep his starting job. … Homer Bailey fanned 10 Marlins in a complete-game win Tuesday. Bailey should be owned in all leagues, but honestly, streaming against Miami is so easy. Leake, Brandon McCarthy and Jonathan Pettibone could help while facing the Marlins over the next week. … How bad is this Marlins lineup? Second baseman Derek Dietrich, just in his fourth big league game, hit third. He singled twice and knocked in a run, and does have, say, Neil Walker-type power. … San Diego Padres right-hander Andrew Cashner is becoming interesting. He shut down the Baltimore Orioles over 7 1/3 innings Tuesday, allowing two runs (one earned), and lowered his ERA to 2.84. As always with Cashner, it's about health, not performance. … San Francisco Giants lefty Barry Zito was torched for 12 hits and eight runs (five earned) in Toronto. Zito has made eight starts; in six of them, he has allowed one or zero runs. In the other two, opponents have 20 hits and 17 runs in 8 1/3 innings. That's why you avoid him.
Box score bits (AL): I'm hardly the biggest Scott Kazmir fan out there, but he didn't look as bad as his line showed Tuesday in Philadelphia. If you spot-started him, stick with him next Monday when he faces the Seattle Mariners. … Chicago White Sox right-hander Addison Reed saved Tuesday's game, his 12th of the season. The White Sox have only 16 wins. If you think the White Sox will improve, there's no issue here. If you think they're a last-place team, though, consider selling Reed and his fortunate save rate. … You'll see the Josh Hamilton hate in full force in our rankings, but he did homer Tuesday, his fifth. There's just so much upside here if he gets on track. … Not the best outing for Royals right-hander Jeremy Guthrie, as four Angels homered off him, and he registered nary a strikeout in seven innings. Still, would an ERA of around 4.25 the rest of the way be a shock? In deep leagues, that's worth owning.

HacheMan · May 16, 2013

May Re-Ranks: Top 250

By Fantasy Staff | ESPN.com

The only constant in fantasy baseball is change. No matter how good we feel about our rankings on April 1, you'll want to blow them up by the end of the month. But of course, we also spend that month advising you not to panic. It's still early. Some guys start hot, some start cold; you don't know what you have yet.
Well, it's now the quarter pole of the season. Patience is a virtue, but being obstinate is not. So we charge seven of our original preseason rankers to re-evaluate their rankings, and the result is below. You can sort by each ranker's personal rankings, and as you'll see, there is quite a gap in how some of our analysts feel about particular players; we like to call these "trade opportunities," because if our analysts don't all agree, it's likely your fellow owners won't all be feeling the same about that player, either.
So go ahead, compare these to your own rankings, make your trade offers, your adds and your drops. Because mid-May turns into the All-Star break before you know it.

The rankers are fantasy analysts Tristan H. Cockcroft, Eric Karabell, AJ Mass and Todd Zola; fantasy editor Brendan Roberts; and Answer Guys

Dave Hunter and Shawn Cwalinski.
Players are listed with their current position eligibility in ESPN standard leagues. Analysts were asked to submit a top 250. Players who did not receive a vote from an analyst were given a value of 260 for the purpose of calculating their average.

[h=3]2013 Fantasy Baseball Mid-May Top 250[/h]Filter By Position: Top 250 | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | DH | SP | RP


Rank (preseason), name, eligibility, team TC EK BR AJM TZ SC DH AVG
1. (3) Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Det 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1.3
2. (1) Ryan Braun, OF, Mil 2 1 1 4 2 2 2 2.0
3. (4) Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY 4 5 4 3 3 3 3 3.6
4. (2) Mike Trout, OF, LAA 3 3 3 2 7 5 5 4.0
5. (8) Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Col 5 4 5 5 5 4 6 4.9
6. (5) Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pit 8 8 7 6 4 6 4 6.1
7. (12) Justin Upton, OF, Atl 6 6 6 7 6 10 8 7.0
8. (10) Prince Fielder, 1B, Det 7 7 9 8 11 7 7 8.0
9. (14) Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD 11 12 12 10 19 8 9 11.6
10. (11) Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Col 15 11 10 15 10 11 11 11.9
11. (17) David Wright, 3B, NYM 12 10 14 11 8 19 13 12.4
12. (9) Joey Votto, 1B, Cin 10 16 8 13 23 12 14 13.7
13. (13) Justin Verlander, SP, Det 14 13 11 12 31 9 10 14.3
14. (36) Bryce Harper, OF, Wsh 16 9 19 26 17 16 15 16.9
15. (21) Evan Longoria, 3B, TB 9 15 18 14 35 20 12 17.6
15. (22) Felix Hernandez, SP, Sea 13 18 17 9 26 21 19 17.6
17. (33) Adam Jones, OF, Bal 17 14 13 20 25 13 23 17.9
18. (6) Matt Kemp, OF, LAD 29 20 21 23 13 14 16 19.4
19. (20) Jose Bautista, OF, Tor 23 22 23 21 15 23 24 21.6
20. (18) Adrian Beltre, 3B, Tex 32 21 30 18 12 17 25 22.1
21. (26) Ian Kinsler, 2B, Tex 27 26 22 16 14 33 18 22.3
22. (30) Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Tor 19 17 29 24 18 15 39 23.0
23. (16) Buster Posey, C/1B, SF 25 29 15 19 33 36 17 24.9
24. (70) Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Ari 22 19 26 40 28 22 20 25.3
25. (7) Albert Pujols, 1B, LAA 20 24 24 25 34 26 26 25.6
26. (25) Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Bos 21 25 25 17 38 37 21 26.3
27. (52) Yu Darvish, SP, Tex 18 23 16 29 49 29 27 27.3
28. (47) Adam Wainwright, SP, StL 24 27 27 28 54 28 34 31.7
29. (43) Matt Holliday, OF, StL 30 38 32 47 27 24 37 33.6
29. (31) Cliff Lee, SP, Phi 31 28 38 22 55 30 31 33.6
31. (42) Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Bos 51 50 20 27 20 40 29 33.9
32. (23) Stephen Strasburg, SP, Wsh 26 36 33 32 73 39 22 37.3
33. (75) Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cin 43 53 42 45 22 18 43 38.0
34. (40) Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cin 33 42 35 30 74 35 36 40.7
34. (34) Starlin Castro, SS, ChC 34 30 37 33 66 57 28 40.7
36. (50) Madison Bumgarner, SP, SF 28 41 45 31 61 46 38 41.4
37. (78) Alex Gordon, OF, KC 37 60 40 57 24 38 41 42.4
38. (37) Billy Butler, 1B, KC 53 31 43 56 42 41 33 42.7
39. (39) Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, LAD 46 56 28 42 29 54 48 43.3
40. (72) Alex Rios, OF, CWS 59 54 47 44 9 34 58 43.6
41. (98) Carlos Gomez, OF, Mil 35 43 34 66 36 32 60 43.7
42. (49) Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Oak 64 32 50 68 21 25 54 44.9
43. (24) David Price, SP, TB 63 34 39 36 99 47 35 50.4
44. (63) Chris Sale, SP, CWS 58 57 44 38 50 48 69 52.0
45. (51) Ben Zobrist, OF/2B/SS, TB 57 35 58 39 58 67 51 52.1
46. (32) Cole Hamels, SP, Phi 39 40 51 54 80 56 47 52.4
47. (60) Allen Craig, 1B/OF, StL 68 51 59 61 30 55 53 53.9
47. (29) Matt Cain, SP, SF 77 45 46 43 71 51 44 53.9
49. (79) Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Wsh 47 67 49 52 63 45 66 55.6
50. (94) Chase Headley, 3B, SD 44 76 56 93 62 43 30 57.7
51. (41) Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atl 42 89 41 46 79 52 59 58.3
52. (103) Anthony Rizzo, 1B, ChC 73 71 54 70 43 49 55 59.3
53. (73) Carlos Santana, C/1B, Cle 55 63 48 55 76 62 57 59.4
54. (88) Max Scherzer, SP, Det 36 75 69 62 85 27 71 60.7
55. (160) Matt Harvey, SP, NYM 50 33 31 122 59 42 90 61.0
56. (84) James Shields, SP, KC 69 46 68 65 89 44 70 64.4
57. (81) Matt Moore, SP, TB 54 48 61 69 116 66 42 65.1
58. (59) Austin Jackson, OF, Det 71 84 76 53 40 84 49 65.3
59. (67) Aroldis Chapman, RP/SP, Cin 45 90 65 60 88 64 50 66.0
60. (55) Michael Bourn, OF, Cle 67 77 60 84 52 70 68 68.3
60. (61) Ian Desmond, SS, Wsh 40 37 71 37 182 59 52 68.3
62. (35) Jay Bruce, OF, Cin 38 47 53 34 218 53 40 69.0
63. (57) CC Sabathia, SP, NYY 60 66 70 41 105 72 75 69.9
64. (66) Mat Latos, SP, Cin 41 81 73 50 109 65 73 70.3
65. (77) Pablo Sandoval, 3B, SF 48 80 52 59 94 83 77 70.4
66. (100) Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY 52 52 55 103 48 117 89 73.7
67. (58) Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cle 109 49 83 58 67 93 63 74.6
68. (165) Chris Davis, OF/1B, Bal 92 73 75 126 32 31 94 74.7
69. (46) Gio Gonzalez, SP, Wsh 72 102 79 51 92 68 61 75.0
70. (48) Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Wsh 100 93 87 81 51 50 65 75.3
71. (145) Chase Utley, 2B, Phi 89 64 78 110 68 73 46 75.4
71. (138) Carl Crawford, OF, LAD 56 68 81 77 107 60 79 75.4
73. (106) Mark Trumbo, OF/1B, LAA 49 74 97 74 102 61 88 77.9
74. (122) Hunter Pence, OF, SF 91 95 89 82 53 58 78 78.0
75. (45) Yadier Molina, C, StL 103 62 63 35 106 107 72 78.3
76. (86) Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atl 74 86 57 108 57 92 87 80.1
77. (68) Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Mil 146 87 67 113 16 74 64 81.0
77. (62) Joe Mauer, C/1B, Min 108 65 62 49 132 77 74 81.0
79. (69) Zack Greinke, SP, LAD 65 55 72 92 87 112 92 82.1
80. (128) David Ortiz, DH, Bos 101 70 85 130 37 63 93 82.7
81. (65) Desmond Jennings, OF, TB 79 78 77 63 122 80 83 83.1
82. (174) Manny Machado, 3B, Bal 104 39 96 131 83 90 45 84.0
83. (19) Josh Hamilton, OF, LAA 93 58 36 48 220 106 32 84.7
84. (27) Jason Heyward, OF, Atl 78 44 64 121 98 128 62 85.0
85. (117) Anibal Sanchez, SP, Det 66 85 94 86 114 75 81 85.9
86. (82) Jose Altuve, 2B, Hou 84 72 74 72 84 85 142 87.6
87. (276) Jean Segura, SS, Mil 82 69 86 112 100 94 82 89.3
88. (15) Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Mia 96 59 82 75 128 101 85 89.4
89. (113) Jon Lester, SP, Bos 61 82 102 80 113 124 76 91.1
90. (112) Hiroki Kuroda, SP, NYY 85 96 105 83 95 89 109 94.6
91. (64) Johnny Cueto, SP, Cin 81 79 104 116 97 82 106 95.0
92. (89) Elvis Andrus, SS, Tex 87 110 110 73 78 109 101 95.4
93. (87) Martin Prado, OF/3B/2B, Ari 121 106 84 88 93 76 107 96.4
94. (132) Nelson Cruz, OF, Tex 107 103 108 102 41 95 120 96.6
94. (76) Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Phi 83 138 98 71 117 78 91 96.6
96. (173) Dexter Fowler, OF, Col 62 97 117 135 90 105 80 98.0
97. (143) Sergio Romo, RP, SF 86 154 66 115 91 91 96 99.9
98. (141) Torii Hunter, OF, Det 124 112 93 123 65 69 117 100.4
99. (95) Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Cle 99 99 95 85 119 110 103 101.4
100. (115) Doug Fister, SP, Det 88 92 103 90 134 96 108 101.6
101. (44) B.J. Upton, OF, Atl 97 83 88 100 145 133 67 101.9
102. (133) Mike Napoli, C/1B, Bos 159 107 80 97 86 79 116 103.4
102. (116) Jake Peavy, SP, CWS 114 100 113 96 96 71 134 103.4
104. (268) Starling Marte, OF, Pit 122 61 114 211 69 104 56 105.3
105. (127) Carlos Beltran, OF, StL 113 111 106 105 104 87 115 105.9
106. (74) Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phi 116 108 92 67 147 116 97 106.1
107. (97) Mariano Rivera, RP, NYY 70 132 101 76 130 114 122 106.4
108. (38) Jered Weaver, SP, LAA 117 101 107 173 81 88 84 107.3
109. (111) Shane Victorino, OF, Bos 136 98 130 111 75 81 123 107.7
110. (142) Jeff Samardzija, SP, ChC 76 123 112 133 111 108 118 111.6
111. (90) Rafael Soriano, RP, Wsh 75 127 90 78 164 136 112 111.7
112. (152) Lance Lynn, SP, StL 106 115 116 129 121 113 99 114.1
113. (239) Clay Buchholz, SP, Bos 95 94 124 184 115 99 102 116.1
114. (110) Angel Pagan, OF, SF 118 175 120 87 103 100 114 116.7
114. (125) Jim Johnson, RP, Bal 90 151 99 91 161 115 110 116.7
116. (139) Alcides Escobar, SS, KC 111 121 121 117 72 118 158 116.9
117. (105) Joe Nathan, RP, Tex 105 148 118 95 148 111 113 119.7
118. (85) Yovani Gallardo, SP, Mil 133 125 100 89 162 131 100 120.0
119. (53) Matt Wieters, C, Bal 163 109 91 64 146 182 86 120.1
120. (108) Josh Willingham, OF, Min 132 144 123 114 70 129 135 121.0
121. (124) Alejandro De Aza, OF, CWS 126 141 134 94 101 137 124 122.4
122. (126) Brett Gardner, OF, NYY 131 167 135 106 46 147 140 124.6
123. (56) R.A. Dickey, SP, Tor 125 140 119 79 154 153 104 124.9
124. (93) Melky Cabrera, OF, Tor 156 128 127 98 56 192 125 126.0
125. (80) Kris Medlen, RP/SP, Atl 147 188 111 104 152 86 105 127.6
126. (196) A.J. Burnett, SP, Pit 110 113 144 159 123 102 144 127.9
127. (218) Michael Cuddyer, OF/1B, Col 148 143 125 187 45 103 152 129.0
128. (136) Ryan Howard, 1B, Phi 135 135 138 125 44 164 182 131.9
128. (179) Wilin Rosario, C, Col 143 119 109 148 139 122 143 131.9
130. (129) Howard Kendrick, 2B, LAA 145 130 129 109 129 155 128 132.1
131. (54) Brett Lawrie, 3B, Tor 151 122 122 119 143 189 98 134.9
131. (176) Coco Crisp, OF, Oak 186 173 131 142 60 98 154 134.9
131. (175) Mike Minor, SP, Atl 102 129 143 137 155 119 159 134.9
134. (92) Fernando Rodney, RP, TB 128 169 126 118 125 146 133 135.0
135. (243) Hisashi Iwakuma, SP/RP, Sea 115 156 148 193 82 97 156 135.3
136. (261) Shelby Miller, SP/RP, StL 94 88 133 210 192 138 95 135.7
137. (135) Paul Konerko, 1B, CWS 184 136 115 145 77 161 177 142.1
138. (233) Josh Rutledge, SS/2B, Col 154 139 140 206 39 149 171 142.6
139. (162) Kyle Seager, 3B, Sea 144 116 141 134 171 185 127 145.4
140. (140) Addison Reed, RP, CWS 80 165 136 127 184 184 146 146.0
141. (189) Jason Grilli, RP, Pit 98 168 158 154 158 127 160 146.1
142. (71) Aaron Hill, 2B, Ari 211 124 149 99 131 165 167 149.4
143. (99) Ian Kennedy, SP, Ari 137 157 137 124 151 216 129 150.1
144. (207) Norichika Aoki, OF, Mil 141 174 167 164 110 130 169 150.7
145. (171) Todd Frazier, 3B/1B, Cin 158 131 132 138 231 150 119 151.3
146. (158) Homer Bailey, SP, Cin 119 114 187 157 120 191 172 151.4
147. (180) Derek Holland, SP, Tex 130 147 163 143 169 123 200 153.6
148. (213) Casey Janssen, RP, Tor 139 182 146 190 137 120 162 153.7
149. (230) Alex Cobb, SP, TB 120 120 152 196 214 156 121 154.1
150. (216) Tom Wilhelmsen, RP, Sea 112 178 142 198 141 183 132 155.1
151. (170) Nick Swisher, OF/1B, Cle 162 153 156 149 112 141 215 155.4
152. (245) Lorenzo Cain, OF, KC 138 134 161 219 159 157 141 158.4
153. (210) Tommy Milone, SP, Oak 160 176 171 169 149 121 191 162.4
154. (28) Jose Reyes, SS, Tor 164 105 166 101 235 NR 111 163.1
155. (236) Mark Reynolds, 1B, Cle 157 104 162 189 NR 125 153 164.3
156. (96) Brandon Morrow, SP, Tor 123 126 160 139 243 231 130 164.6
157. (164) Tim Hudson, SP, Atl 195 158 170 146 199 145 155 166.9
158. (144) Greg Holland, RP, KC 153 171 159 147 198 168 183 168.4
159. (194) Lance Berkman, 1B, Tex NR 117 165 175 174 140 149 168.6
160. (119) Erick Aybar, SS, LAA 188 179 128 177 194 139 176 168.7
161. (226) Everth Cabrera, SS, SD 129 118 151 182 NR 222 126 169.7
162. (195) Corey Hart, 1B/OF, Mil 237 137 185 197 47 199 189 170.1
163. (225) Ryan Dempster, SP, Bos 155 133 176 205 227 133 170 171.3
164. (221) Nick Markakis, OF, Bal 201 194 150 185 127 166 179 171.7
165. (163) Rafael Betancourt, RP, Col 161 189 172 153 207 159 163 172.0
166. (91) Ike Davis, 1B, NYM 227 221 153 136 157 143 174 173.0
167. (104) Hanley Ramirez, 3B/SS, LAD 127 91 169 171 NR NR 136 173.4
168. (147) Rickie Weeks, 2B, Mil 178 201 184 152 136 163 204 174.0
169. (297) Michael Saunders, OF, Sea 221 184 198 NR 64 158 139 174.9
170. (190) Glen Perkins, RP, Min 142 185 154 188 202 169 186 175.1
170. (203) Andrelton Simmons, SS, Atl 180 149 192 186 156 176 187 175.1
170. (114) Tim Lincecum, SP, SF 206 159 179 107 195 249 131 175.1
173. (199) Alfonso Soriano, OF, ChC 194 181 157 165 187 154 190 175.4
174. (120) Neil Walker, 2B, Pit 200 145 202 163 166 178 175 175.6
175. (157) Michael Morse, OF, Sea 140 191 147 NR 211 135 150 176.3
176. (101) Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC NR 163 145 120 183 232 137 177.1
177. (184) Kendrys Morales, 1B, Sea 171 231 175 166 140 162 201 178.0
178. (200) Trevor Cahill, SP, Ari 172 218 193 180 189 142 166 180.0
179. (161) Jeremy Hellickson, SP, TB 179 209 164 167 150 197 208 182.0
180. (153) Huston Street, RP, SD 182 193 194 172 170 170 196 182.4
181. (204) Jaime Garcia, SP, StL 150 210 191 168 204 190 168 183.0
182. (159) J.J. Hardy, SS, Bal 202 207 212 144 126 210 181 183.1
183. (148) Adam LaRoche, 1B, Wsh 250 166 168 174 176 173 184 184.4
184. (151) Andre Ethier, OF, LAD 223 196 174 151 153 177 218 184.6
185. (83) Victor Martinez, C, Det NR 213 139 128 133 NR 165 185.4
186. (150) C.J. Wilson, SP, LAA 189 161 155 140 188 NR 206 185.6
187. (263) Paul Maholm, SP, Atl 152 162 197 227 191 126 NR 187.9
188. (186) Chris Perez, RP, Cle 177 197 183 191 196 202 173 188.4
189. (348) Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, LAD 134 155 190 NR 249 204 145 191.0
190. (169) Grant Balfour, RP, Oak 199 208 211 181 144 181 225 192.7
191. (130) Dan Haren, SP, Wsh 193 190 204 132 NR 214 180 196.1
192. (472) Nate McLouth, OF, Bal 248 152 223 250 177 186 138 196.3
193. (188) Alexi Ogando, SP/RP, Tex 167 237 215 179 215 132 233 196.9
194. (250) Justin Ruggiano, OF, Mia 183 150 189 209 NR 188 211 198.6
195. (167) Dan Uggla, 2B, Atl 191 239 208 160 213 218 164 199.0
196. (234) Brandon Moss, 1B/OF, Oak 149 164 214 214 NR 174 219 199.1
197. (631) Edward Mujica, RP, StL 192 205 217 NR 165 144 213 199.4
198. (134) Ben Revere, OF, Phi 203 225 195 141 NR 230 151 200.7
199. (274) Juan Pierre, OF, Mia 197 192 209 236 186 148 238 200.9
200. (198) Kenley Jansen, RP, LAD 216 217 238 194 108 198 241 201.7
201. (191) Mark Teixeira, 1B, NYY 214 170 186 199 175 NR 209 201.9
202. (219) Justin Morneau, 1B, Min 176 242 173 201 208 207 210 202.4
203. (264) Bobby Parnell, RP, NYM 185 245 222 228 167 151 242 205.7
204. (193) Jayson Werth, OF, Wsh NR 230 188 203 185 200 178 206.3
205. (146) Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC 246 183 178 155 NR 239 192 207.6
205. (183) Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Bos NR NR 199 176 138 160 NR 207.6
207. (566) Travis Wood, SP, ChC NR 180 196 NR 142 NR 157 207.9
208. (172) Miguel Montero, C, Ari 198 177 177 204 NR 221 222 208.4
209. (155) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pit 190 223 182 161 NR 241 207 209.1
209. (375) Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oak 205 187 213 NR 178 NR 161 209.1
211. (187) Ichiro Suzuki, OF, NYY NR NR 201 178 135 227 216 211.0
212. (271) Yonder Alonso, 1B, SD 168 NR 235 234 221 152 217 212.4
213. (185) Alexei Ramirez, SS, CWS NR NR 216 170 163 194 226 212.7
214. (281) M. Carpenter, 1B/3B/2B/OF, StL 209 160 220 239 219 220 223 212.9
215. (205) Wade Miley, SP, Ari 181 238 221 192 NR 201 199 213.1
216. (118) Jonathon Niese, SP, NYM 231 229 181 162 234 NR 203 214.3
217. (223) Garrett Jones, 1B/OF, Pit NR 211 227 200 210 171 224 214.7
218. (192) Kevin Youkilis, 3B/1B, NYY 170 235 NR 224 200 247 188 217.7
219. (197) Salvador Perez, C, KC 228 206 180 212 NR 206 237 218.4
220. (496) Patrick Corbin, SP, Ari 165 199 240 NR NR NR 147 218.7
221. (247) Omar Infante, 2B, Det NR NR 236 222 168 167 235 221.1
222. (277) Chris Carter, 1B/OF, Hou 175 195 229 NR NR 203 231 221.9
223. (296) Mitch Moreland, 1B, Tex NR 172 210 NR 181 212 NR 222.1
224. (154) Jason Kubel, OF, Ari 208 NR 206 195 232 NR 195 222.3
225. (131) Danny Espinosa, 2B/SS, Wsh 230 NR 250 150 NR NR 148 222.6
226. (137) Brett Anderson, SP, Oak 218 NR 203 183 239 NR 202 223.6
227. (253) Jed Lowrie, SS, Oak 174 203 225 215 NR 233 NR 224.3
228. (424) Ervin Santana, SP, KC 187 186 243 NR NR 175 NR 224.4
229. (628) Tony Cingrani, SP/RP, Cin 196 200 200 NR NR 211 245 224.6
230. (255) Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B, SD 235 198 234 241 224 NR 185 225.3
231. (109) Josh Johnson, SP, Tor 244 227 233 217 217 246 194 225.4
231. (235) Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Pit 232 233 NR 226 172 195 NR 225.4
233. (166) David Freese, 3B, StL NR 214 207 231 237 213 221 226.1
234. (178) Marco Scutaro, 2B/SS, SF NR NR NR 156 229 193 227 226.4
235. (876) Jim Henderson, RP, Mil 169 204 241 NR NR NR 193 226.7
236. (215) Jonathan Lucroy, C, Mil 240 226 205 225 228 209 NR 227.6
237. (273) Jon Jay, OF, StL NR NR NR NR 124 180 NR 229.1
238. (490) Vernon Wells, OF, NYY NR 146 245 NR NR 238 198 229.6
239. (260) Kyle Lohse, SP, Mil 204 222 NR 232 222 208 NR 229.7
240. (208) Ryan Madson, RP, LAA 229 246 NR 216 201 245 214 230.1
241. (266) Brian McCann, C, Atl 215 202 219 247 247 NR 229 231.3
242. (209) Matt Garza, SP, ChC 219 NR NR 243 241 196 205 232.0
243. (319) Andy Dirks, OF, Det 226 NR NR 242 118 NR NR 232.3
244. (224) Ernesto Frieri, RP, LAA 212 240 NR NR 197 219 239 232.4
245. (220) Steve Cishek, RP, Mia NR 244 239 223 193 226 250 233.6
246. (211) Dayan Viciedo, OF, CWS NR 234 224 237 205 242 234 233.7
247. (212) Michael Young, 1B/3B, Phi NR 215 218 202 226 NR NR 234.4
248. (444) Kyle Kendrick, SP/RP, Phi NR 224 NR NR 212 172 NR 235.4
249. (305) Dee Gordon, SS, LAD 207 142 NR NR NR NR NR 235.6
250. (231) Daniel Murphy, 2B, NYM NR NR NR NR 173 179 NR 236.0

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HacheMan · May 16, 2013

Bits: Who replaces David Price?

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Tampa Bay Rays left-hander David Price left his Wednesday outing prematurely with a triceps injury. Of course it stinks, and of course we're all concerned about how much time he's going to miss, but then again, now a little adventure can commence, too. It happened with the Philadelphia Phillies a few weeks ago when the Roy Halladay implosions were backed up by obvious injury. Oh, who will replace him? What if it's the next Clayton Kershaw! I'd better sign Adam Morgan now! Fantasy owners just love this stuff. Sure, Price was a top-10 starting pitcher on draft day, the defending AL Cy Young Award winner and we all love him … but step aside because we want to see what Chris Archer or Jake Odorizzi can do!

I'm only being partly facetious, you know. As of Thursday morning, the update on Price, who was pummeled while he was out there against the Boston Red Sox and saw his ERA rise back over 5.00 again, was that he suffered a strained left triceps. The pessimist in all of us immediately thinks Tommy John surgery is pending and we won't see Price again until June 2014, but it really could be just a missed start or two, perhaps a short disabled list stint. It should go without saying, but don't cut Price today in any leagues. If he's visiting Dr. James Andrews tomorrow, however, well, all moves are fair game. Honestly though, I was buying low on Price a week ago, and I'm still doing so. Injury often explains poor performance, so if Price doesn't start again until mid-June, you definitely buy in. And this is not Halladay.

But hey, what about Archer and Odorizzi and the other outstanding young fireballing hurlers on the Triple-A Durham staff? The Phillies promoted right-hander Jonathan Pettibone recently, and he's no star, but he is 3-0 with a 3.41 ERA, and that's better than a lot of No. 6 fantasy starters. What the Durham Bulls are using is better than that: potential aces in Archer, right-hander Alex Colome and lefty Alex Torres, and Odorizzi tossed seven no-hit innings at Pawtucket a few outings ago. The first thing I look for when a pitcher is unlikely to make his next start is who started for the Triple-A club that same night of injury/premature exit. Organizations are all about keeping the pitchers on schedule and want to avoid disrupting routine. Odorizzi twirled in Rochester on Wednesday night, but it went poorly, as he permitted six runs, including three home runs, over 5 1/3 innings.

Box score bits (AL): Seattle Mariners outfielder/designated hitter Raul Ibanez smacked a pair of home runs and knocked in six at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday. A year ago, Ibanez hit 14 of his 19 home runs in the Bronx. If only teams traded for Ibanez before starting series there! Ibanez isn't as valuable as he was in 2012, but he's capable of reaching 19 home runs again. … Detroit Tigers outfielder Avisail Garcia launched a three-run home run out of the No. 9 lineup spot Wednesday. The power is real, but so is the strikeout potential. Still, he should play often. With Austin Jackson on the DL, Omar Infante inherited the leadoff role against terrible lefty Dallas Keuchel. Look for Andy Dirks to be in that role against right-handed pitching. … Chicago White Sox batting average-drain Adam Dunn launched a pair of no-doubt home runs Wednesday, knocking in five runs, but that .156 batting average is just too much to overcome. B.J. Upton can raise his .145 batting average 100 points. Does anyone think Dunn can realistically do this? … More White Sox: Infielder Jeff Keppinger had two hits and two RBIs Wednesday. It's not a misprint that his OBP is lower than his batting average, with each well below .200. Keppinger still hasn't drawn a walk in 2013. He was a 22nd-rounder in ESPN drafts, but isn't too popular anymore. Hmm, wonder why? … Each time I watch Oakland Athletics right-hander Dan Straily get lit up, I wonder what the fuss is about. On Wednesday he was awful, allowing four hits, five runs (four earned) and four walks in 4 1/3 innings. If only his ERA was in the 4s; it's 7.27. The strikeout potential isn't worth this.

HacheMan · May 16, 2013

Manny Machado deserves high ranking

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

While it seems as if everyone acknowledges Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout and Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper as the best young players in baseball, it sure looks as though the Baltimore Orioles have themselves a special young talent as well in third baseman Manny Machado. The 20-year-old had four more hits Wednesday, the fourth time in a week he delivered three or more, and raised his season batting average to .343, right up there among the league leaders.

I can’t admit I expected Machado, only a few months older than Harper, to do quite this well, but after six weeks of standout play I’m certainly on the proverbial bandwagon, a fact shown by my generous mid-May ranking. (Click here for the staff rankings!) I admit to being surprised my colleagues aren’t completely on board; after all, in addition to the lofty batting average, Machado is on pace for 20 home runs, 97 RBIs and 16 stolen bases. Orioles manager Buck Showalter, who knows a thing or two, clearly trusted Machado when he exalted him to the No. 2 lineup spot, and fantasy owners should trust him, too. He is now my No. 5 third baseman, and yes, his outstanding play has pushed him into the dynasty league discussion with Trout and Harper. We should stop discussing the fact he’s not playing shortstop and realize he is a clear stud regardless.
Perhaps I’m jumping the gun a bit on Machado, but age doesn’t seem to be a factor in how we analyze Trout or Harper. Those guys were considerably better at the plate last season, but Machado has made major strides. He’s hitting more line drives and fewer fly balls, swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone, walking more and striking out less. His BABIP is a bit inflated, but I don’t expect he’s going to hit .343 when October comes, either. But can he hit .300 with 20 home runs and 16 steals? You betcha! If so, my No. 39 rank is actually too cautious. It’s irrelevant that Machado was a 19th-rounder in ESPN average live drafts, projected to hit .261 with 19 home runs and 11 steals. He’s better than that, perhaps a lot better.
When I first started ranking players for this project last week I didn’t have Machado near my top 50, but he kept hitting, I kept thinking it over, and it all warranted a closer look. A right-handed hitter, he hasn’t even begun to hit lefties yet; all of his home runs have come off right-handed pitching, and his OPS is a cool .949 there. And he will hit lefties. If someone in your league wants to sell high, go get Machado. This is a special player.
As for others I ranked better than my colleagues, well, it’s kind of interesting, really. I’m generally partial to the older players, and for these rankings I was, but there are also quite a few younger fellows I seem to like more than most. Where’s my middle class in terms of age? Here are a few of the young -- and old -- names in addition to Machado. I suppose this is mid-May version of “my guys!”
Starling Marte, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates: His lofty batting average is more unsustainable than Machado’s but the power/speed package is legitimate. I doubt he finishes among the top 10 hitters (he’s currently fifth on the Player Rater), but top 50 wouldn’t surprise me. I haven’t really been defending him in chats, on Twitter, any multimedia, but other than the batting average and the fact he strikes out a ton, what’s the issue?
Lance Berkman, 1B, Texas Rangers: And here’s the old. The plate discipline never left, as he has more walks than strikeouts, and I could see a 20-90-.300 season. The fact he’ll be DH-only for 2014 isn’t an issue yet. I admit his average second half of 2011, when he was unbelievable in the first half, has me thinking sell-high in July, but he’s not in my top 100, either.
Matt Carpenter, 1B/2B/3B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals: You’ll see that the players in this blog entry have been the focus of previous blogs! Carpenter is going to hit .300 and score considerably more than 100 runs. He’s not a base stealer, and I’ll take the under on 15 home runs, but his versatility does matter and again, how many players seem capable of scoring 120 runs? He certainly does.
Dee Gordon, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers: I blogged about him earlier in the week, and trusted colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft touched on the subject Wednesday, so I’ll just add that Gordon will hit enough to stay in the bigs and steal 40 bases, which is really all that matters for fantasy owners.
Vernon Wells, OF, New York Yankees: I know what he did -- or didn’t do -- the past few seasons. Again, I don’t see it as particularly relevant. He homered again Wednesday, has new plate discipline and looks like a different player. It’s not as though he was streaky his final seasons with the Los Angeles Angels; he was just bad. So expecting him to suddenly fail after this great six weeks, I don’t see it.
Enjoy the rankings and share your thoughts in the comments section!

HacheMan · May 19, 2013

Arcia profile; top 10 prospects

By Jim Callis | Baseball America

Before the season, the Minnesota Twins planned to have Oswaldo Arcia spend much of the year at Triple-A Rochester. He was just 21 when the season began and had never played at that level.

Even when the Twins called him up April 15, when Wilkin Ramirez took a day of paternity leave, they sent Arcia back down immediately after he went 1-for-3 against the Angels. But the Twins summoned him again on April 17, when Darin Mastroianni injured his left ankle -- and Arcia may never see another day in the minors. He's hitting .286/.318/.476 with three homers and 13 RBIs through his first 23 games in the majors, getting time in both outfield corners.

So can Arcia maintain this level of production? In a word, yes.

Coming into the season, the Twins may have had the most impressive collection of hitting prospects in the game. No minor leaguer has more power than third baseman Miguel Sano, and arguably none have a more well-rounded collection of tools than center fielder Byron Buxton, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2012 draft. Aaron Hicks is a top-shelf athlete, and he skipped Triple-A and headed straight to the Twin Cities after lighting up the Grapefruit League.

Compared to those other prospects, Arcia didn't get as much money: He signed for $70,000 out of Venezuela in 2007, while Sano, Buxton and Hicks turned pro for a combined $10.9 million. He also didn't receive as much hype, but he's a better pure hitter than any of them. A career .316/.373/.539 performer in the minors, Arcia has the bat speed to hit quality pitching and punish mistakes. He projects to hit for a high average with solid power, and his strong arm fits well in right field. He's better equipped to produce in the majors right now than Hicks is, though big leaguers are starting to exploit Arcia's aggressiveness at the plate (four walks, 25 strikeouts in 88 plate appearances).

And with that, here is this week's top 10 fantasy prospects for 2013, a list that Arcia never managed to crack before being called up:

[h=3]1. Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians (Last week's rank: 2)[/h]Season totals: 1-0, 2.55 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 31 K's in 24 2/3 IP (four starts) at Triple-A Columbus.
Update: Bauer's lone outing last week was a big league spot start (his third of the year) in a Monday doubleheader against the Yankees. He took the loss after giving up three runs (two earned) in 6 1/3 innings, but he threw strikes and walked just two batters after fighting his control in his first two starts with Cleveland.
What he can do: If the Indians want to remain in contention, they need to stop yo-yoing Bauer from Triple-A and put him in the middle of their rotation. There's enough time for him to reach double-digit wins in the big leagues, and even though his walk rate might elevate his WHIP, he should be good for plenty of strikeouts.

[h=3]2. Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Last week's rank: 3)[/h]Season totals: 3-1 record, 2.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 31 K's in 42 1/3 IP (seven starts) at Triple-A Indianapolis.
Update: Cole isn't dominating Triple-A hitters even though he has the stuff to do so, but he's making fine progress with his control. He has walked just five batters in 19 innings over his past three starts after giving up 15 free passes in his first 23 1/3 frames.
What he can do: Francisco Liriano and Jeanmar Gomez have been surprisingly effective since joining Pittsburgh's rotation, so the Pirates don't need Cole at the moment. But they won't be able to wait much longer if he keeps throwing strikes. His production could be similar to Bauer's.

[h=3]3. Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays (Last week's rank: 1)[/h]Season totals: .252/.349/.392, 4 HR, 24 RBIs, 2 SB in 37 games at Triple-A Durham.
Update: Myers did hit his fourth homer of the season last week, but his strangely mediocre season continues. His overall numbers continue to decline, and he's hitting just .206/.320/.290 against right-handers.
What he can do: Arbitration considerations seemed to be all that were keeping Myers in the minors in April, but the Rays have less of a need for him now, and he's just not performing. While he does have the power to hit at least 10 homers in the second half of the big league season, he's not showing it on a consistent basis. That's why he's no longer in the top spot in these rankings.

[h=3]4. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals (Last week's rank: 4)[/h]Season totals: .348/.483/.620, 5 HR, 17 RBIs, 0 SB in 26 games at Double-A Harrisburg.
Update: Rendon continues to rake since getting his first taste of the big leagues, going 10-for-22 (.455) with two homers in the past week. Finally healthy, he's showing why he was Baseball America's top-rated prospect in the loaded 2011 draft.
What he can do: He looks like a better bet to hit for average and power in the big leagues this year than Myers, though Rendon's opportunity may be harder to come by. He'll have to wait for Ryan Zimmerman to get hurt again or for the Nationals to take at-bats away from a struggling Adam LaRoche or Danny Espinosa.

[h=3]5. Nick Franklin, 2B/SS, Seattle Mariners (Last week's rank: 5)[/h]Season totals: .330/.457/.509, 4 HR, 16 RBIs, 5 SB in 31 games at Triple-A Tacoma.
Update: Franklin's OPS at Tacoma (.966) continues to outpace the combined OPS of Mariners shortstops Brendan Ryan and Robert Andino (.811). Franklin's biggest weakness coming into the year was hitting left-handers, but he's batting .435/.519/.522 against southpaws in a small sample size (28 plate appearances).
What he can do: While he's not in the same class defensively as Ryan and Andino, Franklin is a much better hitter and has played a steady shortstop. His on-base skills and all-around offensive potential would be welcome additions near the top of Seattle's punchless lineup.

[h=3]6. Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers (Last week's rank: 7)[/h]Season totals: .250/.350/.368, 2 HR, 14 RBIs, 6 SB in 35 games at Triple-A Round Rock.
Update: Profar hit safely in all six games he played the past week, though he's not yet driving the ball the way he has in the past. He played his fourth and fifth games of the year at second base, where Ian Kinsler has been error-prone for Texas.
What he can do: The Rangers' best lineup, offensively and defensively, would have Profar at second base and Kinsler in the outfield. That could become a reality if Texas sees a sustained hot streak from Profar.

[h=3]7. Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: 6)[/h]Season totals: .317/.351/.480, 4 HR, 20 RBIs, 5 SB in 31 games at Triple-A Memphis.
Update: Taveras has caught fire at Triple-A; he recently went 7-for-14 with a homer over a three-game span to boost his slash stats to the levels you see above. Unfortunately, in the third of those contests (Sunday), he injured his right ankle trying to steal a base. The injury isn't expected to land him on the disabled list, but he hasn't played since.
What he can do: Taveras can play all three outfield spots, but the Cardinals are covered at all three positions and it may take an injury to get him in the lineup. It's not out of the question that he could be St. Louis' best hitter if given the opportunity.

[h=3]8. Zack Wheeler, SP, New York Mets (Last week's rank: 9)[/h]Season totals: 2-1, 3.74 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 47 K's in 43 1/3 IP (eight starts) at Triple-A Las Vegas.
Update: Wheeler has recorded his first three quality starts of the year in his past three outings, with 19 K's and just three walks in 20 innings during that time. He had some shoulder discomfort after pitching last Saturday, prompting an MRI that revealed only mild inflammation in his AC joint. He missed a start while getting checked out but will make his next one as planned.
What he can do: The missed start is just a speed bump, and Wheeler still is on course for a June call-up once his arbitration eligibility is delayed. He won't match Matt Harvey's ridiculous numbers, but some scouts liked him more than Harvey when both were in the minors.

[h=3]9. Kyle Gibson, SP, Minnesota Twins (Last week's rank: 8)[/h]Season totals: 2-5 record, 3.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 38 K's in 43 2/3 IP (eight starts) at Triple-A Rochester.
Update: After throwing a nine-inning shutout in his previous start, Gibson lasted just three innings while yielding seven hits and four runs Tuesday. He lost his aggressiveness after the first inning and was kept on a short leash after throwing 114 pitches in his shutout.
What he can do: Cole De Vries (forearm strain) is about to return for the Twins, so Gibson will have to wait a little longer to get a shot in the team's rotation. When he does, he could become Minnesota's best starter.

[h=3]10. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: 10)[/h]Season totals: .226/.277/.323, 2 HR, 12 RBIs, 21 SB in 37 games at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: Hamilton used an 11-for-34 (.324) streak to climb back above the Mendoza Line, starting with a shocking two-homer game last Friday that matched his total homer production for all of 2012. Of course, he's best known for his blazing speed, and he added four steals in his past seven games.
What he can do: Hamilton has more adjustments to make against Triple-A pitching, so it's hard to envision him being called up to Cincinnati until sometime after the All-Star break. No one has better stolen-base potential, though, so he's a fantasy prospect who can't be ignored, even if he's struggling at the plate.

HacheMan · May 19, 2013

Closer Report: Will Madson get saves?

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

The last time Los Angeles Angels right-hander Ryan Madson threw a pitch in a big league regular season game was the last Wednesday of September 2011, in the eighth inning against the Atlanta Braves. Madson retired Chipper Jones, Dan Uggla and Freddie Freeman without incident, and on 14 pitches. Since then Madson has been paid by the Cincinnati Reds and Angels, but he hasn’t logged an inning for either squad. It’s going to be a bit longer before he does.

Madson claims he’s ready for action this weekend as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery performed more than a year ago, but instead he’s been sent to Triple-A Salt Lake City to begin a rehab assignment originally announced as scheduled for several weeks. It’s tough to tell how long Madson will be there, but his fastball velocity is reportedly down around 91-92 mph, and the Angels want to be thorough. Remember, back in February, the Angels were talking about Madson being ready for the start of the season. That did not happen.

The question for fantasy owners is how soon Madson usurps the closer role from right-hander Ernesto Frieri, if at all. I have to admit, while I have believed all along that a healthy, thriving Madson would take the job and run with it, the Angels might not be in agreement. Frieri continues to battle occasional control issues, but he also boasts a 1.56 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings. Opponents are hitting .136 off him and left-handed batters are a miserable 1-for-31 off him, the lone hit being an A.J. Pierzynski game-winning home run. Frieri has been very good, so while fantasy owners continue to ask about Madson, I’m not sure it matters. Yes, he has more closing experience, but he also has more setup experience.

Madson is owned in 52.5 percent of ESPN standard leagues, so he’s relatively popular for a guy who hasn’t thrown a pitch in a game for a really long time. He’s not a bad stash, after all. Manager Mike Scioscia could call his name to close in June. Or he might never call it. I’m guessing Madson will save games this season, but from June 1 on, I’m betting Frieri saves more. Anyway, here are 10 pitchers owned in fewer than 50 percent of leagues that I think will save games from this point on this season, in order of current ownership.

Jose Veras, Houston Astros: Well, this is cheating. He is closing, but somehow available in more than half of ESPN leagues. Yes, the Astros are bad, but Veras has more saves than anyone on the New York Mets or Detroit Tigers. He can save 25.

Kyuji Fujikawa, Chicago Cubs: Kevin Gregg still hasn’t permitted an earned run. That probably means he’ll allow 12 in June. Fujikawa is likely next in line over Carlos Marmol.

David Hernandez, Arizona Diamondbacks: Hey, good for Heath Bell. Nice success story. For left-handed hitters, that is. Just a matter of time before the better pitcher gets chances, though I will point out that those cutting J.J. Putz will also likely miss out on saves since he’s not expected to be out long-term.

Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals: Kudos to Edward Mujica, but he’s throwing all split-finger fastballs and regular fastballs. I just think the (much) harder-throwing Rosenthal is better, and the Cardinals have made closer changes in recent seasons that didn’t appear needed to be made based on performance (see Fernando Salas, 2011). Wouldn’t shock me if Carlos Martinez starts 2014 closing here, with Rosenthal in the rotation.

Jared Burton, Minnesota Twins: I like Glen Perkins, and his numbers are terrific, but so are Burton’s. Either would make for decent real-life trade bait, frankly.

Steve Delabar, Toronto Blue Jays: I would have had Sergio Santos on this list, but he had elbow surgery this week. Casey Janssen has been awesome, but still being handled carefully coming off shoulder surgery. No AL relief pitcher has more strikeouts than Delabar.
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers: This is not an indictment on current closer Jim Henderson, who has done well, but one for John Axford, who I see no reason to keep owning. K-Rod was promoted from the minors this week and pitched Thursday, and if he doesn’t close here, he’s trade bait.

Tanner Scheppers, Texas Rangers: Joe Nathan has allowed runs in consecutive outings, while Scheppers has a 0.44 ERA, with one run given up all season. Nathan isn’t in danger, but those owning Joakim Soria are months from getting numbers.

Joel Peralta, Tampa Bay Rays: Fernando Rodney seemed back on track before Thursday’s nightmare, and the fact 19 of his 35 pitches were not strikes is particularly noteworthy. The steady Peralta is next in line, though I doubt a change is made soon unless Rodney is hurt.

A.J. Ramos, Miami Marlins: Bad teams make closer changes, and it’s not like Steve Cishek is thriving. Ramos is the future guy, and the future could come any day now.

Notes: Boston Red Sox right-hander Andrew Bailey should come off the DL soon, and I expect him to pretty much vault right into the closer role. Junichi Tazawa has done nothing wrong, but I smell the incumbent getting saves, at least until his next DL stint. … Jonathan Broxton is still next in line should something befall Aroldis Chapman, but J.J. Hoover is the one with three saves. Don’t read into it, as there were extenuating circumstances each time. … Los Angeles Dodgers flamethrower Kenley Jansen saved Tuesday’s win, and appeared to seize the closer role. The next night he entered in the seventh inning and Brandon League closed. The closer change could happen in time, but you shouldn’t dump League yet. Manager Don Mattingly doesn’t tip his hand because, he probably doesn’t know. … I no longer think Frank Francisco is in play to close for the New York Mets. Bobby Parnell seems safe. … Something is clearly awry with Philadelphia Phillies setup man Mike Adams. Don’t own him for safe innings or potential saves. … Heath Hembree is piling on the saves for Triple-A Fresno. Sergio Romo looks tremendous for the San Francisco Giants, but the dynasty stash is Hembree.

HacheMan · May 19, 2013

[h=1]What to do about Matt Cain?

[/h]By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

By the second inning of Thursday night’s game between the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies, the concerned, panicked and, let’s face it, angry tweets about right-hander Matt Cain started flowing in consistently. Cain allowed three home runs early in what ended up as a victory in Coors Field, as Todd Helton, Nolan Arenado and Wilin Rosario each took him deep. But still, I’m neither concerned, panicked nor angry, despite the fact Cain leads the big leagues in home runs permitted with 13.

It’s dangerous to make major decisions from start to start with reliable pitchers who were perhaps originally drafted as a team’s ace. Yes, Cain had some hiccups in April, posting a 6.49 ERA and serving up nine home runs in six winless starts, though his reasonable 1.29 WHIP and strong strikeout rate alleviated worry for me. In two May outings before Thursday, Cain righted the ship, so to speak, winning twice and permitting eight hits and one long ball in 15 1/3 innings. So we weren’t particularly worried entering Thursday, but an outing at Coors Field changes that again? Fantasy can be a roller coaster, but outings in Denver should be considered part of a different ride.

Cain’s staff mid-May rankings reflected his underachieving start to the season, as he fell to No. 47 overall after being 29th on our preseason rankings. But trying to deal this proven, durable pitcher at this point isn’t wise. Anything is possible in trade talks, but the time to deal Cain was before Thursday, if you were truly concerned. I wasn’t. Cain has annually outperformed his metrics; his career ERA of 3.35 doesn’t match up with his 4.19 xFIP, but he takes advantage of his spacious home ballpark and the fly ball pitcher has never allowed more than 22 home runs in a season. He might do that this season before June, but still, expect better days. After all, his WHIP is 1.21. Trust the WHIP, not the inflated 5.43 ERA.

Cain’s metrics point to the same ol’, same ol’, except for the skyrocketing HR/FB rate, and after all the homers Thursday he settled down, allowed nothing else and earned the win. The walk and strikeout rates are on par with past seasons. He isn’t allowing more fly balls than usual, they’re just going farther. His velocity is about the same, and he’s throwing more sliders, which isn’t really proof of anything. Batters aren’t swinging at as many of his non-strikes, and they’re making more contact with strikes, but it’s tough to call nine starts a worrisome trend.

There’s plenty of starting pitching these days, but there’s little reason to believe Cain is not the same guy you trusted in March drafts. Expect solid numbers from here on out. Now as for colleague Ryan Vogelsong, well, run away!

Box score bits (NL): So much for that pretty ERA for Rockies right-hander Jhoulys Chacin. He gave up eight runs to the Giants in 5 1/3 innings, and his ERA rose from 2.70 to 4.07. Let’s just say he’s a better play in road games. &#133 New York Mets lefty Jonathon Niese was oddly better in road games last year, and he seemed to get back on track Thursday in St. Louis, allowing two runs over 7 1/3 innings for his third win. Niese’s command was much better than recent outings, and his fastball velocity was up. If he pitches like this moving forward, he’s a top-50 starting pitcher option. &#133 Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jay Bruce hit a two-run double in the 10th inning, giving him 24 RBIs on the season. Bruce is striking out in a shocking 30 percent of his at-bats and walking less; I wouldn’t necessarily buy low, assuming he’s a top-50 player the rest of the way, but he can still provide a solid season. &#133 Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Travis Snider hit his first home run and stole a base Thursday. You might not believe this, but Snider is also hitting .292. I wouldn’t sound the breakout alarm yet, but at least he’s in the majors, right? Take a shot in deeper formats, he’s only 25. &#133 That’s two solid outings for Bucs lefty Francisco Liriano. How many will I need before I believe? Talk to me in July. &#133 The very available Adam LaRoche has homered in consecutive games and is hitting .386 in the past fortnight. Yeah, you bet I think what he did last season was legit.

Box score bits (AL): What’s wrong with Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander? Nothing, probably, but the Texas Rangers teed off for eight runs Thursday. Verlander was off; he issued two bases-loaded walks in one inning and Geovany Soto homered. Geovany Soto! Don’t assume Verlander is hurt or sliding. &#133 We can assume New York Yankees left-hander Andy Pettitte is hurt after he left Thursday’s start early with a sore muscle in his back. Even if he doesn’t end up on the DL this weekend, he’s a poor play next week. &#133 Rangers outfielder Leonys Martin went six weeks without a stolen base but now has steals each of the past two days, three total. There’s talent here, buy low. &#133 Anyone who tries to trade Rangers ace Yu Darvish because he threw 130 pitches Thursday doesn’t understand that pitchers used to do this routinely! He’ll be fine. &#133 Chicago White Sox infielder Jeff Keppinger drew a walk Thursday, his first of the year. About time! &#133 Don’t be fooled by Los Angeles Angels right-hander Jerome Williams, despite pitching well against a poor White Sox offense twice in a week. There’s no strikeout -- or any -- upside here.

HacheMan · May 20, 2013

Mid-May rankings explanations

By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

OK, I get it, I value players differently from other owners. This is not news to me.

This became readily apparent when our mid-May top 250 rankings were posted last week. The first six-plus weeks were in the books, and all we were to concern ourselves with was the final 19-plus weeks. So I fired up my spreadsheet, customized the rankings for a standard 10-team ESPN league and passed them along. Little did I know what havoc would ensue.

To say some of my rankings were different from the herd is an understatement. In a bit, I'll offer an explanation for several outlying projections. However, since some were so extreme, I'd first like to first describe the nuts and bolts of my methodology, because contrary to what some might believe, I didn't just pull names out of a hat or use a random number generator.

Simply put, I'm a numbers guy. My projections are "99.44 percent" stats-based and spreadsheet-driven. In short, a series of skills are translated into expected performance based on historical data and up-to-date projection theory protocols. As has been discussed in this column since its inception, skills do not always translate perfectly into expected performance. When a round bat meets a round ball, hits sometimes happen. But there is a great deal of happenstance. One of the tenets of projecting player performance is isolating the skill component and focusing on that to best foresee the future. My system focuses on said skills.

In a nutshell, what I do is come up with a weighted average of the expected skill and the current skill, with the level of regression determined by the findings of Russell Carleton and Tom Tango. For hitters, the skill that is quickest to stabilize is contact rate. Next is walk rate, followed by power and hit rate (which takes more than a season to be deemed reliable). To put things in perspective, we're already at the point of the season where at least part of a current contact rate is real. In other words, if a player is currently exhibiting a better or worse contact rate than expected, it's probable that going forward he will continue to do so. It could regress toward his expected mark, but remain better or worse. Jumping ahead a bit, it's this influence that is delineating my rankings from the pack, and in a lot of instances, it's the source of the consternation. Meanwhile, it takes basically a full season's worth of plate appearances before a batter's power level can be considered real, so this early in the season, the impact on home runs is minimal.

Pitchers follow a similar pattern, with strikeouts and walks stabilizing more rapidly while hits and home runs take much longer. Like hitters, if a pitcher is sporting a new strikeout rate and has faced ample batters, we can project him with an improved rate going forward. But we're not quite there in terms of walks, and as with hitting, it takes a season's worth of batters faced for hits and homers to be reliable. This all makes sense, as strikeouts and walks are the skills both hitters and pitchers can exhibit the most control over. The whole "round bat meeting round ball" thing introduces the luck element, which takes a much larger sample to flesh out.

With that as a backdrop, here are a handful of surprising observations I draw from my rankings:

[h=3]Alex Rios is a top-10 fantasy option[/h]

[h=4]Alex Rios[/h][h=5]OF, Chicago White Sox
Staff: 43.6; my rank: 9[/h]2013 STATS

GM42
AVG.301
R27
HR10
RBI25
SB7

Do you know where Rios finished last season on the ESPN Player Rater? Eleventh. That's right, Rios was the 11th-best fantasy option in 2012. And he's currently at No. 9 for this season. Yet I'm being raked over the coals (via Conversation posts) for having the audacity to suggest he'll remain there. I know the perception surrounding Rios: He's an every-other-year producer, and this was slated to be his down year. Well, apparently someone failed to inform the White Sox right fielder of this. Last season it took 25 homers, 23 steals and a .304 average to finish just outside the top 10 on the Player Rater. Is it really that outlandish to project a top-10 finish for a guy who is currently on pace to hit 39 homers with 27 pilfers?

To be clear, that's not my projection for him. From a skills perspective, Rios is displaying the same contact rate as last season, but with an improved walk rate. His BABIP is also quite similar. All this portends to him maintaining an average near .300. I actually pegged him for .287 going forward.

The main difference between this year and last is his spike in power. Rios set a career high with 25 dingers last season, so expecting another 30 is obviously a stretch, especially since, as I noted above, power takes so long to stabilize. We just can't consider the newfound power to be real. It comes from an increased HR/FB rate, along with hitting more fly balls. However, the HR/FB spike is not eye-popping, jumping to 18 percent from last year's 13 percent. The thing is, for Rios to end up as a top-10 option, you don't need him to maintain this elevated level. You only need him to do exactly as he did last season. Really, is that too much to ask?

Honestly, I think the misperception that Rios is an every-other-year player has kept many naive owners from realizing just how skilled and productive he really is. I stand by my contention that Rios will finish in the top 10 on the ESPN Player Rater.

[h=3]Jay Bruce is the new Adam Dunn[/h]

[h=4]Jay Bruce[/h][h=5]OF, Cincinnati Reds
Staff: 69.0; my rank: 218[/h]2013 STATS

GM43
AVG.279
R24
HR5
RBI28
SB0

OK, here's the deal: At the time we were asked to file our updated rankings, Bruce was whiffing at a 31 percent clip, well above his career level of 24 percent. He since has gone on one of his patented tears and brought that mark down to 29 percent, but I'm not going to back off my analysis and conclusion. That said, comparing Bruce to Adam Dunn is admittedly hyperbolic, as Dunn's career contact rate is worse than what Bruce has shown this season.

Based on the skills stability data, Bruce is going to strike out more than he did last season, a lot more. Keep in mind this is probability, not absolute, but the most likely outcome is Bruce whiffing at a career-high rate. His BABIP is presently .381, well above his career mark of .297. This is the luck element that needs to be eliminated from the rest-of-season calculation. From here on out, neutral luck should be anticipated. When that is combined with more strikeouts and a slight reduction in power, an average in the .240 range ensues. In standard ESPN leagues, this severely impacts his ranking. Bruce does not steal bases, so he offers no help there. So my objective analysis of Bruce has him hitting well below normal, with a small albeit meaningful decline in power.

I realize this is a hard sell regarding a player presently hitting .279 and in the throes of a hot streak. And in the name of full disclosure, plugging his current stats into my little black box does suggest a somewhat rosier scenario than I had for him last week. That said, his expected average is still in the .250 range with a reduction in power, so my ranking for him as of today would still be quite bad, just not as extreme. But I suspect I'd be taking just as much grief for ranking him, say, No. 157 than I am for ranking him No. 218. On the other hand, once this hot streak is over and Bruce turns cold again, the strikeouts will return and the expected average will again plummet. Bruce might not be Adam Dunn, but he's also not the power hitter with untapped upside that many believe he is.

[h=3]Chris Davis is 'too legit to quit'[/h]

[h=4]Chris Davis[/h][h=5]OF/1B, Baltimore Orioles
Staff: 74.7, my rank: 32[/h]2013 STATS

GM42
AVG.313
R26
HR12
RBI40
SB0

Davis is the opposite of Bruce in terms of skills. He's fanning 7 percent less than his career level, which, according to the skills stabilization data, suggests he has altered his contact rate baseline for the better and can be expected to continue to whiff less frequently. He's also drawing more walks, and because there is a positive correlation between walk rate and power, this portends to him maintaining a career-best power output, though this is far from definite considering the power skill is the slowest to stabilize. The small spike in Davis' 2013 power output can be explained by him simply lofting a few more fly balls; his HR/FB rate is the same.

I assume my colleagues are expecting Davis to revert more to his old swing-and-miss ways, while I'm trusting that the new contact rate in what they might perceive to be a small sample size can be real. While this is more of a topic for next spring, it should be noted that there is no guarantee Davis carries this improved contact rate into next season. In fact, the assumption should be that he won't. But I'm not concerned about next year, at least not yet. Because he's making better contact, Davis should finish with a 2013 Player Rater rank that is better than we all thought when we ranked him in the spring.

[h=3]Shin-Soo Choo: All aboard![/h]

[h=4]Shin-Soo Choo[/h][h=5]OF, Cincinnati Reds
Staff: 38.0; my rank: 22[/h]2013 STATS

GM43
AVG.309
R35
HR9
RBI19
SB5

The discrepancy here isn't as vast as some of the other ranks, largely due to Shawn Cwalinski ranking Choo at No. 18. However, his inclusion here is still warranted based on some of the comments in the Conversation section of the rankings article.

Choo is striking out less and walking more than originally expected, which is having both a direct and indirect impact on his numbers. Tangibly, his batting average is higher and the move to the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park has done wonders for his power. But that's not all. A projection encompasses not only the player's skills, but also his playing time and plate appearances. The Reds have Choo hitting leadoff, which in turn avails increased plate appearances. So not only is he playing better than expected, he's playing more than expected. My guess is it's this increased playing time that leads to the slightly different rankings.

[h=3]Ian Desmond is a one-year wonder[/h]

[h=4]Ian Desmond[/h][h=5]SS, Washington Nationals
Staff: 68.3; my rank: 182[/h]2013 STATS

GM43
AVG.268
R19
HR6
RBI17
SB4

There is actually a latent force driving this discrepancy over and above what I'll soon discuss. Coming into the season, I was already skeptical about Desmond -- I felt his 2012 breakout was more fluke than fact -- so my expected baseline is already lower than my colleagues'. Now factor in that he is whiffing more and walking less than last season and the cavernous gap in ranking is understandable, as I am further penalizing an already-tempered expectation.

Desmond's increased strikeout rate, along with a lower BABIP, has dropped his average 25 points. Fewer hits lead to lower across-the-board production, especially in steals and runs scored, so he doesn't have the counting stats to compensate for the .261 average I have for him going forward. I also don't factor in positions in my re-ranks. Why? Well, you'll just have to read my 2013 Draft Kit piece, in which I debunk the myth of position scarcity.

[h=3]Josh Rutledge is a poor man's Dustin Pedroia[/h]

[h=4]Josh Rutledge[/h][h=5]SS/2B, Colorado Rockies
Staff: 142.6; my rank: 39[/h]2013 STATS

GM42
AVG.247
R26
HR5
RBI13
SB5

As skeptical as I was on Desmond entering the season, I was that high on Rutledge. As such, my baseline was higher, as it reflected greater expectations than my colleagues. A huge part of this was and still is the playing time component. There is a cloud of doubt hanging over Rutledge's playing time, as Colorado has some viable alternatives, led by Eric Young Jr., who is currently chasing fly balls but could switch to picking up grounders when Michael Cuddyer returns. Still, I am confident Rutledge's skills will be sufficient enough to fend off Young.

In half of the 2012 campaign, Rutledge compiled a line of .274 average, eight homers and seven steals. Double that and you have a "Pedroia light" stat line, not exactly a laser show, but at least a couple of 1970s strobe lights. The knock against Rutledge was a subpar walk rate, and while he'll never be confused with Ted Williams in terms of plate patience, he has more than doubled his walk rate to an almost-acceptable mark of 7.8 percent. In addition, he has slashed his strikeouts by 3 percent.

So why is he hitting a scant .247? Well, Lady Luck has been rearing her ugly head (metaphorically speaking, of course; I'm sure she's a lovely woman). Rutledge is sporting a .267 BABIP, well below expected. Rutledge is hitting fewer line drives than normal, but remember that hit rates are very slow to stabilize, so in my secret sauce, I still expect Rutledge to carry a much higher BABIP going forward. When you regress his BABIP and factor in an improved walk and contact rate, I project Rutledge to hit around .290 from here on out. Now the Pedroia comparison seems a lot more palpable. If Pedroia is ranked No. 26, similar counting stats with an average a few points lower should warrant a rank at least closer to No. 39 than 143.

[h=3]Michael Saunders is the quietest 20/20 player in the game[/h]

[h=4]Michael Saunders[/h][h=5]OF, Seattle Mariners
Staff: 174.9; my rank: 64[/h]2013 STATS

GM27
AVG.247
R19
HR4
RBI12
SB6

Last season, in only 139 games, Saunders hit 19 homers and stole 21 bases. While this is more anecdotal than analytical, the revamped dimensions of his home park, Safeco Field, should help maintain if not increase his power. Plus, the Mariners upgraded their offense in the offseason, which should result in increased runs and RBIs to accompany the aforementioned homers and steals. Granted, Saunders hit only .247, but he still finished the 2012 campaign at No. 153 on the ESPN Player Rater. If you prorate what Saunders has done so far this season to the 553 plate appearances he had last year, he'll hit an identical .247, but with 21 homers and 32 steals, along with more runs and RBIs than last season. He's having a better year than last, yet he's ranked more than 20 spots worse than he finished 2012.

Perhaps many think my rank of 64 is overly optimistic, but I humbly disagree. His contact rate is identical to last year, and he's drawing more walks. If he can stay healthy, he can approach 20-20 for the rest of the season, let alone for his final line. Which leads me to ask this philosophical question: When Saunders hits a homers or steals a base, does anyone hear it?

[h=3]Aramis Ramirez is a top-20 player[/h]

[h=4]Aramis Ramirez[/h][h=5]3B, Milwaukee Brewers
Staff: 81.0; my rank: 16[/h]2013 STATS

GM16
AVG.352
R5
HR3
RBI12
SB0

Before you laugh, please consider these two facts: (1) Last season, Ramirez finished 23rd on the ESPN Player Rater; and (2) Between 2010 and 2012, no one played more innings at the hot corner than he did. Nobody. So without even considering skills and performance, all I'm expecting Ramirez to do is a smidge better than he did last season.

I know, I know, he's 36, and prior to 2010 he had a sketchy injury history. Furthermore, this is going to be a nearly impossible sell because he already has missed a large chunk of time because of a knee injury and there are recent mumblings that it's barking again. Maybe he hurt it during one of his jaunts around the bases after his pair of three-run homers over the weekend? I kid, but it serves the purpose of emphasizing how well Ramirez plays between injuries

I'm obviously fighting a losing battle here because my entire argument is based around Ramirez being more durable than perceived. I really can't make a strong case that a guy that has missed two of the previous four games is going to be a bastion of health for the next four-plus months. Instead, I'll qualify my statement with this: If he's healthy, it won't take much for Ramirez to be a top-20 player the rest of the season. OK, you can laugh now.

[h=3]Stephen Strasburg: Cause for concern[/h]

[h=4]Stephen Strasburg[/h][h=5]SP, Washington Nationals
Staff: 37.3; my rank: 73[/h]2013 STATS

GM9
IP57.1
W2
K's55
ERA2.83
WHIP1.12

We'll conclude this discussion with a couple of pitchers. Recall that the first skill to exhibit reliability for pitchers is strikeout rate. We're at the point of the season where it's safe to say that Strasburg won't be fanning batters at the clip he did last year, as evidenced by a drop in K/9 rate from 11.1 to 8.6. Fewer strikeouts has an additive impact on his ranking. First, strikeouts are a roto category, and he already is handicapped there because of his innings constraint. He's slated to toss around 200 frames, which, along with the reduced strikeout rate, puts him well behind the elite tier of pitchers. Fewer punchouts also has a negative impact on his ERA and WHIP, as that will result is a few more balls put into play. Some of these balls will be hits, and some of those hits will result in runs. Again the paucity of innings comes into play, as even if Strasburg manages to keep his ratios in check, the lower innings total reduces the impact they have to your team ERA and WHIP.

If Strasburg were still whiffing batters at last year's rate, he could accrue enough K's to overcome the deficiency in innings. But he isn't, so he won't. At least this season, Strasburg is not close to the same tier as Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw, the dynamic duo he was lumped in with by many this spring.

[h=3]Matt Moore is not yet a fantasy ace[/h]

[h=4]Matt Moore[/h][h=5]SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Staff: 65.1; my rank: 116[/h]2013 STATS

GM9
IP55.0
W8
K's54
ERA2.29
WHIP1.09

Yes, I am referring to the Matt Moore who is 8-0 with a 2.29 ERA. The problem here is he is walking even more hitters than last season, a rather unsightly 4.3 per nine innings. He's surviving on a BABIP below .200 that is sure to regress. The minuscule hit rate is masking a high home run rate, which could come back to haunt Moore once his hit rate corrects. Moore's FIP is 4.43 while his xFIP is 4.19, suggesting an ERA correction is right around the corner. Moore's stuff is great, and an 8.8 K/9 rate shows he can miss plenty of bats, but as long as the walks and homers remain elevated, once regression kicks in, his ERA will not remain an ace-worthy number.

Hopefully I have at least provided something to think about, even if you disagree with my rankings. If there are additional rankings you'd like explained, please post in the Conversation section of this column, and I'll do my utmost to address it.

HacheMan · May 20, 2013

Bits: Kinsler placed on DL, Profar gets call

Eric Karabell

The many fantasy owners and Texas Rangers fans who have been waiting all season for the promotion of super-prospect Jurickson Profar finally got their wish Sunday night: He got the call when Ian Kinsler was placed on the DL. But it's premature to assume he'll be up the rest of the season, perhaps even in a month, and that seriously dilutes his 2013 fantasy value. Just because Mike Trout and Bryce Harper made history in 2012 doesn't mean Profar will this season. Hey, I think Profar should be a regular player in the big leagues now, and I'd rank him as a borderline top-10 fantasy second baseman if I thought 400 at-bats were pending, because he has the power and speed to make a difference. It's just unlikely that he'll get that chance, so expectations should be guarded.

After all, Kinsler didn't even get to hit this weekend, yet he remains one of fantasy's top five second basemen, and he just missed an overall top-20 spot in our mid-May ranks. He's likely not moving to first base either, considering that Mitch Moreland has been just about the hottest hitter in all of baseball this month, including seven home runs already.

Basically, just because Kinsler is out for two weeks because of an intercostal strain in his rib cage doesn't mean he's losing his starting spot anytime soon, and he's not being traded or moved to a corner outfield spot, either. The Rangers placed Kinsler on the disabled list because there's little downside in doing that and their AL West lead is large; Profar homered twice for Triple-A Round Rock Saturday and had an eight-game hitting streak there, and there are no financial issues (as with Wil Myers in Tampa Bay), so why not call him up? Profar, already second base-eligible in ESPN leagues, is expected to be in the Texas lineup Monday against the Oakland Athletics, and if you have him, by all means activate him.

I could see Profar putting on a minishow the next fortnight, which makes adding him even in the 10- and 12-team formats enticing enough. The problem is what happens the first week of June when the Rangers pull a Cingrani on fantasy owners. Oh, you know what I mean. The Cincinnati Reds and fantasy owners enjoyed a month of top pitching prospect Tony Cingrani while Johnny Cueto was on the DL, and made no promises he'd stick around when Cueto was healthy. Cueto is scheduled to start Monday, so Cingrani was demoted over the weekend. Profar is in a similar situation. Which healthy Rangers hitter is going to sit in June? There aren't any obvious candidates.

The bottom line is this on Profar, who when the Sunday night game started was owned in a shade fewer than 10 percent of ESPN standard leagues, but already has jumped into the top five on the most-added list: Even in a shallow league, while I think Profar will be superior -- though not Trout-like -- to the likes of modestly owned Alexei Ramirez, Rickie Weeks and Erick Aybar short-term, there are no guarantees come the second week of June. It's a risk. Sure, if Profar hits and Kinsler misses an extra month, or Moreland or Elvis Andrus got hurt, you'll be glad you have Profar. But Kinsler played 155 and 157 games the past two seasons, overcoming durability issues that used to scare people away from the two-time 30-homer, 30-steal middle infielder, and this is not expected to be a long-term injury. Cut Yuniesky Betancourt, Brandon Crawford, Danny Espinosa (yes, I've seriously had enough of him), Zack Cozart and Emilio Bonifacio for Profar; none of them are special anyway. In three weeks you can re-sign one of them if need be.

And please don't cut Kinsler! Even if we were redoing the mid-May rankings again tomorrow, I'd still rate him as a top five second baseman for the rest of the 2013 season, even with him missing two weeks. It's not a big deal. Profar, 20, will be a big deal, but probably not on a regular basis until 2014.

Box score bits (AL): Tampa Bay Rays designated hitter Luke Scott launched his third home run Sunday and knocked in a run in five of six games for the week. Scott won't hit for a high average, but he's a legit 20-homer threat. … Boston Red Sox right-hander John Lackey permitted one hit and an unearned run in beating the Minnesota Twins on Sunday, and lowered his ERA to 3.31 in the process. Lackey doesn't warrant standard-league interest yet, but if his strikeout rate is high in a month, let's talk. … Grant Balfour remains the Oakland A's closer; he just needed a day off Sunday. Ryan Cook stepped in and handled the ninth inning. Balfour is safe. … The way Cleveland Indians right-hander Justin Masterson is striking out hitters, he should be universally owned. Masterson fanned 11 Seattle Mariners and won his seventh game Sunday and his third in a row. He's not an obvious sell-high option, either.

Box score bits (NL): Philadelphia Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz left Sunday's game early because of a hamstring injury, and he is expected to go on the DL. In standard leagues, Ruiz doesn't need to be owned right now. … Phillies utility guy Freddy Galvis blasted a game-winning home run off Reds closer Aroldis Chapman, but he's not going to see regular playing time, and if he did, he'd be overwhelmed at the plate. … Miami Marlins lefty Mike Dunn saved Sunday's game, as right-hander Steve Cishek put men on base and lefty Miguel Montero was up. Cishek remains the shaky closer, but Dunn is now in play as well. … New York Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy slugged his fourth home run of the season Sunday. Murphy had a huge week, hitting .500 with two home runs and seven runs scored. He's still available in quite a few mixed leagues. … San Diego Padres outfielder Will Venable homered and stole a base Sunday, a tasty combo meal for the paltry 17 percent of ESPN standard-league owners that have him. Venable has six home runs and eight steals already.</OFFER>

HacheMan · May 20, 2013

Phillips' new approach leads to more RBIs

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

While Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips has maintained strong fantasy value this season, he’s done so with some unusual early-season statistics, and according to him, he has manager Dusty Baker to thank and blame for that.

Through seven weeks, Phillips, annually a consistent producer in each of the five standard fantasy hitting categories, has been producing quite a bit more in a few of those stats, and less of another, and apparently it’s by choice. Bumped to the cleanup spot in the batting order shortly after teammate Ryan Ludwick was injured on Opening Day, Phillips is piling on the runs batted in. He loves them, too, and wants to lead the league. I caught up with Phillips at Citizens Bank Park Saturday night after his team waxed the Philadelphia Phillies 10-0, and he discussed how his plate approach is so much different because of the spot where Baker bats him.

“My job now is to get RBI -- it’s my No. 1 thing,” said Phillips, who is getting so many of them that he’s one off the NL lead and remains on pace for 133 of them. “That’s my goal, to get 100. When I hit fourth, that’s my job. I don’t really worry about my batting average or my on-base percentage -- it’s just getting the guy in [to score]. Having that approach has been working so far. I’m a free swinger. I like hitting fourth. It’s fun. Your job is to do one job.”

Sabermetricians far and wide can debate that quote, but Phillips is certainly buying in, and that matters most. Nobody has hit more sacrifice flies, and he’s knocked in runs with well-placed ground ball outs as well. Phillips once knocked in 98 runs in a season, but he might do that by August with leadoff hitter Shin-Soo Choo and first baseman Joey Votto leading the major leagues in OBP. They are trying to get on base, and Phillips is knocking them in with his 18 extra-base hits, ahead of his 2012 pace of 49. Just imagine if the Reds had a league-average No. 2 hitter. That lineup spot, led by shortstop Zack Cozart and featuring the immortal Cesar Izturis on Sunday, boasts an embarrassing .265 OBP. Entering Sunday, Phillips led the major leagues in total number of baserunners when he was at the plate, edging out Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau and Miguel Cabrera.

“I feel like I’m doing a pretty good job hitting cleanup so far,” Phillips notes. “To tell you the truth, they said I would hit second this whole year, and that didn’t happen. So when Ludwick comes back, you never know what will happen. Just put me in the situation you need me to fill gaps, that’s what I do. I’m a very versatile player. A lot of people don’t know that, but the Reds organization knows that.”

OK, so Phillips is accruing many RBIs, though he didn’t get any in Philly over the weekend, and it’s possible when Ludwick returns from shoulder surgery (perhaps as early as July), he’ll move to No. 2 in the order. That would, Phillips admits, adjust the numbers he’d likely produce. After all, Phillips’ 2013 is producing Jeff Kent-type power numbers, and he has yet to successfully steal a base. Phillips has averaged 15 steals the past three seasons, and boasts a 30/30 campaign to his credit. He’s ahead of pace for his normal power (18 home runs each of the past three seasons), but currently Jose Molina, Travis Hafner and Travis Wood have stolen a base, and Phillips has not.

“That’s not my choice,” Phillips said, first with a gentle smirk, then with a smile. “I would love to steal more bases. You’ve got to talk to the man, Dusty Baker. He’s the one holding me back. I have got to leave the [first base] hole open for [Jay] Bruce. Plenty of times I know I can get a bag, but I get the hold sign. Brucey hits a lot of balls in that hole. That’s the only reason I haven’t run. I know I can get 20 bags easily, but hey, I just do what I’m told.”

It’s interesting that Phillips has adopted this strategy at the plate, as most hitters will say they change little based on their lineup spot. His goal is 100 RBIs, and who knows when he’ll steal bases, if at all. On occasion, fantasy owners pencil in certain numbers upon drafting or trading for players and build their team off this. Phillips has been about as consistent an option -- regardless of position -- in recent years. It appears time for owners to adjust their expectations, however. This really could be a 25-homer, 110-RBI, 10-steal (at best) season; still valuable, but in a different way, so plan accordingly.

Reds talk: Votto had a terrific weekend, homering twice, reaching base six times Saturday, and he hit two more singles Sunday. Asked after Saturday’s game whether his power was back, he gave no definitive answer, noting “he felt better” and “just had a few good swings.” Votto hit four home runs the first 41 games. He might win the OBP crown, but I still take the under on 25 home runs and 100 RBIs. … I’d sell high on Shin-Soo Choo, within reason. He was hitless in two of the three weekend games, and I don’t see him maintaining his power, walk or stolen base pace. Put a different way, I’m a fan, but I don’t see him ending up a top-10 outfielder, and he’s seventh on the Player Rater today. … Outfielder Jay Bruce leads the NL in strikeouts, but he’s hitting .279, with five multihit games in his past seven. Bruce homered twice over the weekend. He’s on pace for 18 home runs and 103 RBIs. I say he gets 25 and 90. … Right-hander Homer Bailey appears to look better this year, as his strikeout rate and WHIP are improved, but he’s also faced the Phillies, Marlins and Nationals six times in nine outings. Those are three of the four lowest-scoring teams. … Closer Aroldis Chapman has blown his past two save chances. Go get him, if owning a top closer is your thing. He’s fine. Setup man Jonathan Broxton, however, has looked less than stellar against right-handed hitters. Still, he’s next in line for saves. … The Texas Rangers promoted Jurickson Profar, leading the fantasy world to now ask when the Reds will do the same with speedster Billy Hamilton. He’s hitting .228 at Triple-A Louisville. It won’t be soon. … And for those angry that rookie lefty Tony Cingrani was demoted -- it was hardly unexpected -- note that he really does need to work on his off-speed stuff. Cingrani doesn’t reach 100 mph like Chapman, and he was throwing 82 percent fastballs, which became a problem. He’s good, he’s deceptive and he’ll be back, but don’t overrate him.

HacheMan · May 21, 2013

[h=1]How relevant are pitcher wins?[/h][h=3]Can early surprises Corbin, Guthrie, Masterson keep piling up victories?[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Traditionalists can keep fighting, but their battle for wins is a losing cause.

As pitching grows increasingly specialized -- there has been a lower rate of starts lasting at least 110 pitches this season (12 percent) than in any time during the past quarter-century (that encompassing all seasons for which Baseball-Reference.com has pitch-count data; in all likelihood it's an all-time low) -- the value of the win continues to tumble. Quality starts -- those of at least six innings pitched and no greater than three earned runs allowed -- have resulted in a win only 53.3 percent of the time, the second-lowest rate in almost a century (2011, 53.2 percent).

Baseball might be a game of statistical benchmarks, the 20-win plateau a popular such example, but in the modern game that specific accomplishment carries far less meaning; it's mostly the product of extremely good fortune.

Consider: In the 13 completed seasons since 2000, eight times the respective league's (American or National) pitching leader in Wins Above Replacement won 20 or more games … but nine times he won 16 games or fewer.

Using this season's returns to illustrate: Among the 11 pitchers on pace for 20 wins are the names Patrick Corbin, Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Marquis and Justin Masterson, none of whom has ever won more than 15 games in a season previously. Three of them entered the year with losing career records; Marquis was only two games over .500. Guthrie is 19 games under .500 counting his 2013 performance.

How many do you think will finish 2013 with at least 20 wins?

Answering that is nearly impossible, and as forward prognostication goes, entirely irrelevant. It is the mistake all too many fantasy owners make: In defending, say, Corbin's season-to-date performance, they'll argue, "But he's 7-0," when the far more compelling case to be made is that his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching score) is 2.82, 15th among ERA qualifiers; his ground ball rate 50.3 percent, almost 5 percent higher than the league average; and his walk rate 7.5 percent, almost three-quarters of a percentage point beneath the league average.

Corbin's ability to avoid walks and induce grounders gives him a fighting chance once inevitable regression to the mean arrives, so the proper question about his future prospects is, what are his odds of maintaining an ERA beneath 3.50 and WHIP under 1.25? Any contribution in wins should flow from that answer; wins should not drive your projection, but rather be the byproduct of those ratios.

The same goes for Guthrie, whose continued reliance upon his sinker is largely behind his hot start; and Masterson, whose increased slider usage and effectiveness, especially against left-handed hitters, is behind his. Marquis would be in that group, too, if he didn't appear to have been entirely lucky (.231 BABIP, 80.3 LOB%); he has little to no chance at coming even close to those ratios going forward.

Here's why you shouldn't even bother to project wins: There isn't even a strong enough correlation between team influences -- run and bullpen support -- and wins as fantasy owners might believe. Examining statistics in the 13 completed seasons since 2000, only 55 percent of the time a pitcher reached the quality start minimum did he earn the win; 67 percent of the time he managed at least seven innings pitched with no greater than two earned runs allowed he won; and only 82 percent of the time he pitched eight-plus with zero or one earned runs allowed did he win. It's that 82 percent number -- approximately four-fifths -- that is shockingly low.

Breaking those numbers down further, let's illustrate what run support might have done for pitchers in each of these circumstances. Runs-per-game averages (the first column) are comparative to the league average; this year's Detroit Tigers, for example, would be in the "+0.50 or more" group thanks to averaging 1.01 runs per game more than the major league average (5.29, compared to 4.28).

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Runs (compared to MLB AVG)	<CENTER>QS</CENTER>	<CENTER>W</CENTER>	<CENTER>%</CENTER>	<CENTER>7+ IP, 2- ER</CENTER>	<CENTER>W</CENTER>	<CENTER>%</CENTER>	<CENTER>8+ IP, 1- ER</CENTER>	<CENTER>W</CENTER>	<CENTER>%</CENTER>
+0.50 or more	3959	2511	63.4%	1969	1470	74.7%	537	468	87.2%
+0.25 to +0.50	4708	2753	58.5%	2280	1592	69.8%	619	502	81.1%
0 to +0.25	6387	3665	57.4%	3014	2086	69.2%	802	661	82.4%
-0.25 to 0	6285	3459	55.0%	3056	2017	66.0%	850	683	80.4%
-0.50 to -0.25	5325	2764	51.9%	2500	1586	63.4%	636	520	81.8%
-0.50 or less	4361	2048	47.0%	2035	1197	58.8%	517	402	77.8%

Only at the extremes -- examples such as this year's Tigers, on the good side, or the Miami Marlins, on the bad -- did it appear that pitchers stood a significantly better or worse chance at notching the win, especially in that latter group, where there was effectively no difference on teams that averaged within a half-run of the league average. This "extremes" finding should come as no surprise; the shock should be that there's little-to-no difference between a merely above- or below-average team.

Now let's illustrate how bullpen support impacts the win column. In order to fairly judge relievers' performance, let's use ERA as our baseline, but also penalize relievers for the inherited runners that only starters left behind. As those aren't technically a reliever's responsibility, let's charge relievers one-half of an earned run for each of these "Bequeathed Runners" (the term Baseball-Reference.com uses) allowed to score, then recalculate that ERA. Again, we'll compare these "rERA" (Relief ERA) to the league's average.

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rERA (compared to MLB AVG)	<CENTER>QS</CENTER>	<CENTER>W</CENTER>	<CENTER>%</CENTER>	<CENTER>7+ IP, 2- ER</CENTER>	<CENTER>W</CENTER>	<CENTER>%</CENTER>	<CENTER>8+ IP, 1- ER</CENTER>	<CENTER>W</CENTER>	<CENTER>%</CENTER>
-0.75 or better	3555	2095	58.9%	1782	1228	68.9%	498	395	79.3%
-0.25 to -0.75	8730	4950	56.7%	4238	2844	67.1%	1112	917	82.5%
0 to -0.25	5035	2811	55.8%	2382	1619	68.0%	625	499	79.8%
+0.25 to 0	4303	2409	56.0%	2049	1385	67.6%	576	484	84.0%
+0.75 to +0.25	5062	2747	54.3%	2391	1606	67.2%	636	527	82.9%
+0.75 or worse	4340	2188	50.4%	2012	1266	62.9%	514	414	80.5%

Here's where it gets interesting: There is scarcely any relief impact upon starters' win potential except in the first two groups (quality starts and 7-and-2 games) in the instance of the game's truly worst bullpens. This means that, to use 2013 examples, only examples such as the Houston Astros (major league worst 4.80 relief ERA), Philadelphia Phillies (4.63 ERA and precious little setup help behind closer Jonathan Papelbon) and St. Louis Cardinals (4.54 ERA, nine blown saves) would be of significant concern.

What's more, look at those numbers from starts of eight innings or greater and zero or one earned run allowed: Teams with the worst bullpens actually protected the starter's lead (80.5 percent) more often than those with the best (79.3 percent). That's further evidence that good pitching -- not good run support or good relief work -- should fuel your wins projections.

For those lacking the time to do thorough such prognostication, here's a quick way to evaluate pitchers' year-to-date contributions, beyond the obviously valuable endeavor of examining their peripheral numbers (such as FIP, BABIP, LOB%, HR/FB% and batted-ball rates): Take our Player Rater numbers and extract wins from the equation. The charts below do this, the column on the left showing the top 30 starting pitchers (SP eligibles currently serving as relievers excluded) with wins included, the one on the right showing the top 30 excluding wins.

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Player	<CENTER>Team</CENTER>	<CENTER>With Wins</CENTER>	<CENTER>W/O Wins</CENTER>	Player	<CENTER>Team</CENTER>	<CENTER>W/O Wins</CENTER>	<CENTER>With Wins</CENTER>
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	1	1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	1	1
Matt Harvey	NYM	2	2	Matt Harvey	NYM	2	2
Yu Darvish	Tex	3	4	Felix Hernandez	Sea	3	7
Jordan Zimmermann	Wsh	4	7	Yu Darvish	Tex	4	3
Patrick Corbin	Ari	5	9	Clay Buchholz	Bos	5	6
Clay Buchholz	Bos	6	5	Hisashi Iwakuma	Sea	6	8
Felix Hernandez	Sea	7	3	Jordan Zimmermann	Wsh	7	4
Hisashi Iwakuma	Sea	8	6	Shelby Miller	StL	8	9
Shelby Miller	StL	9	8	Patrick Corbin	Ari	9	5
Justin Masterson	Cle	10	14	James Shields	KC	10	18
Matt Moore	TB	11	18	Chris Sale	CWS	11	12
Chris Sale	CWS	12	11	A.J. Burnett	Pit	12	16
Adam Wainwright	StL	13	13	Adam Wainwright	StL	13	13
Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	14	15	Justin Masterson	Cle	14	10
Mike Minor	Atl	15	17	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	15	14
A.J. Burnett	Pit	16	12	Travis Wood	ChC	16	19
Jon Lester	Bos	17	23	Mike Minor	Atl	17	15
James Shields	KC	18	10	Matt Moore	TB	18	11
Travis Wood	ChC	19	16	Madison Bumgarner	SF	19	22
Max Scherzer	Det	20	20	Max Scherzer	Det	20	20
Lance Lynn	StL	21	32	Cliff Lee	Phi	21	24
Madison Bumgarner	SF	22	19	Anibal Sanchez	Det	22	25
Jake Peavy	CWS	23	25	Jon Lester	Bos	23	17
Cliff Lee	Phi	24	21	Stephen Strasburg	Wsh	24	32
Anibal Sanchez	Det	25	22	Jake Peavy	CWS	25	23
Mat Latos	Cin	26	28	Homer Bailey	Cin	26	35
Alex Cobb	TB	27	31	Ervin Santana	KC	27	30
Scott Feldman	ChC	28	34	Mat Latos	Cin	28	26
Kyle Kendrick	Phi	29	35	Jeff Samardzija	ChC	29	44
Ervin Santana	KC	30	27	Trevor Cahill	Ari	30	33

Here is where you can perhaps extract some underrated value, so long as you can live with a potentially diminished number of wins: Jeff Samardzija has the greatest differential (15 spots) between the two charts of any member of the top 50 starting pitchers; Jose Fernandez (13), Homer Bailey (9), James Shields (8) and Stephen Strasburg (8) are four others who haven't been as fortunate in the wins column as they could. Bailey and Strasburg in particular are puzzling inclusions, as both of them pitch for teams projected to rank among the game's best winners.

Using the reverse, the aforementioned Marquis, 45th among starting pitchers on our Player Rater, would rank only 76th (difference of 31) if wins were excluded. Similarly, Guthrie (32), Jorge De La Rosa (30), C.J. Wilson (15) and Lance Lynn (11) might perhaps be overrated due to their wins-inflated Player Rater standing. In the example of Guthrie, a poor strikeout rate contributes, while with De La Rosa, the nightly ERA/WHIP risk of calling Coors Field his home makes him risky.

A final thought: If unpredictability in the wins column still frustrates you, ESPN's League Manager affords you the ability to pick the categories you want, in the event you'd like to remove wins from the equation in 2014.

But that's a conversation for another time … oh, wait, it's one we've already had!

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[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For starter- or reliever-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>	Player	<CENTER>Pos Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk</CENTER>
1	Clayton Kershaw, LAD	SP1	1	76	C.J. Wilson, LAA	SP55	76
2	Felix Hernandez, Sea	SP2	2	77	Grant Balfour, Oak	RP22	81
3	Justin Verlander, Det	SP3	3	78	Ernesto Frieri, LAA	RP23	85
4	Adam Wainwright, StL	SP4	5	79	Tim Lincecum, SF	SP56	83
5	Yu Darvish, Tex	SP5	4	80	Jeremy Hellickson, TB	SP57	71
6	Stephen Strasburg, Wsh	SP6	6	81	Jarrod Parker, Oak	SP58	86
7	Cliff Lee, Phi	SP7	8	82	Kenley Jansen, LAD	RP24	87
8	Madison Bumgarner, SF	SP8	7	83	Jose Valverde, Det	RP25	90
9	Max Scherzer, Det	SP9	9	84	Kyle Lohse, Mil	SP59	82
10	Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh	SP10	14	85	Jonathon Niese, NYM	SP60	94
11	Craig Kimbrel, Atl	RP1	12	86	Andrew Cashner, SD	SP61	97
12	Matt Harvey, NYM	SP11	15	87	Tim Hudson, Atl	SP62	79
13	Cole Hamels, Phi	SP12	10	88	Chris Tillman, Bal	SP63	105
14	Zack Greinke, LAD	SP13	21	89	Dan Haren, Wsh	SP64	78
15	Aroldis Chapman, Cin	RP2	13	90	Kevin Gregg, ChC	RP26	109
16	Chris Sale, CWS	SP14	17	91	Phil Hughes, NYY	SP65	84
17	Matt Moore, TB	SP15	16	92	Brandon McCarthy, Ari	SP66	127
18	Jon Lester, Bos	SP16	19	93	Wandy Rodriguez, Pit	SP67	95
19	Mat Latos, Cin	SP17	11	94	Andrew Bailey, Bos	RP27	114
20	CC Sabathia, NYY	SP18	18	95	Ricky Nolasco, Mia	SP68	112
21	Mariano Rivera, NYY	RP3	25	96	Ryan Madson, LAA	RP28	93
22	James Shields, KC	SP19	24	97	Brandon Beachy, Atl	SP69	100
23	Anibal Sanchez, Det	SP20	22	98	Josh Johnson, Tor	SP70	99
24	Matt Cain, SF	SP21	23	99	Alexi Ogando, Tex	SP71	66
25	Gio Gonzalez, Wsh	SP22	26	100	Jhoulys Chacin, Col	SP72	92
26	Rafael Soriano, Wsh	RP4	27	101	Kyle Kendrick, Phi	SP73	103
27	Johnny Cueto, Cin	SP23	30	102	Brandon League, LAD	RP29	101
28	Addison Reed, CWS	RP5	29	103	Marco Estrada, Mil	SP74	98
29	Hiroki Kuroda, NYY	SP24	32	104	Jason Vargas, LAA	SP75	116
30	Jonathan Papelbon, Phi	RP6	31	105	Travis Wood, ChC	SP76	124
31	Shelby Miller, StL	SP25	36	106	Heath Bell, Ari	RP30	133
32	David Price, TB	SP26	20	107	Jason Hammel, Bal	SP77	96
33	Jeff Samardzija, ChC	SP27	28	108	Jeremy Guthrie, KC	SP78	106
34	Clay Buchholz, Bos	SP28	37	109	David Hernandez, Ari	RP31	117
35	Sergio Romo, SF	RP7	33	110	Jose Veras, Hou	RP32	125
36	Jason Grilli, Pit	RP8	38	111	A.J. Griffin, Oak	SP79	118
37	A.J. Burnett, Pit	SP29	42	112	Jorge De La Rosa, Col	SP80	121
38	Mike Minor, Atl	SP30	39	113	Ross Detwiler, Wsh	SP81	102
39	Joe Nathan, Tex	RP9	40	114	Edwin Jackson, ChC	SP82	107
40	Doug Fister, Det	SP31	34	115	David Phelps, NYY	SP83	134
41	Homer Bailey, Cin	SP32	47	116	Jose Quintana, CWS	SP84	115
42	Lance Lynn, StL	SP33	41	117	Drew Smyly, Det	RP33	123
43	Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea	SP34	45	118	Trevor Rosenthal, StL	RP34	129
44	Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea	RP10	43	119	Julio Teheran, Atl	SP85	NR
45	Jake Peavy, CWS	SP35	44	120	Brett Anderson, Oak	SP86	88
46	Jered Weaver, LAA	SP36	46	121	Wei-Yin Chen, Bal	SP87	104
47	Alex Cobb, TB	SP37	48	122	Andy Pettitte, NYY	SP88	110
48	Jim Johnson, Bal	RP11	35	123	Tony Cingrani, Cin	SP89	80
49	R.A. Dickey, Tor	SP38	50	124	Ryan Cook, Oak	RP35	128
50	Derek Holland, Tex	SP39	52	125	Bartolo Colon, Oak	SP90	126
51	Fernando Rodney, TB	RP12	51	126	Scott Kazmir, Cle	SP91	122
52	Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD	SP40	54	127	Francisco Liriano, Pit	SP92	143
53	Patrick Corbin, Ari	SP41	65	128	Ubaldo Jimenez, Cle	SP93	149
54	Yovani Gallardo, Mil	SP42	53	129	John Lackey, Bos	SP94	136
55	Casey Janssen, Tor	RP13	56	130	Josh Beckett, LAD	SP95	111
56	Glen Perkins, Min	RP14	57	131	Bud Norris, Hou	SP96	108
57	Greg Holland, KC	RP15	61	132	David Robertson, NYY	RP36	131
58	Kris Medlen, Atl	SP43	58	133	Junichi Tazawa, Bos	RP37	119
59	Rafael Betancourt, Col	RP16	64	134	Kyuji Fujikawa, ChC	RP38	137
60	Brandon Morrow, Tor	SP44	49	135	Mike Dunn, Mia	RP39	NR
61	Jim Henderson, Mil	RP17	67	136	Steve Cishek, Mia	RP40	120
62	Edward Mujica, StL	RP18	77	137	Luke Gregerson, SD	RP41	139
63	Tommy Milone, Oak	SP45	63	138	Zack Wheeler, NYM	SP97	130
64	Ian Kennedy, Ari	SP46	55	139	Felix Doubront, Bos	SP98	132
65	Trevor Cahill, Ari	SP47	68	140	Koji Uehara, Bos	RP42	135
66	Huston Street, SD	RP19	73	141	Ryan Vogelsong, SF	SP99	113
67	Jose Fernandez, Mia	SP48	69	142	Zach McAllister, Cle	SP100	142
68	Ryan Dempster, Bos	SP49	62	143	Joel Peralta, TB	RP43	NR
69	Chris Perez, Cle	RP20	70	144	Tanner Scheppers, Tex	RP44	NR
70	Paul Maholm, Atl	SP50	60	145	Scott Feldman, ChC	SP101	147
71	Bobby Parnell, NYM	RP21	74	146	Mark Melancon, Pit	SP102	NR
72	Matt Garza, ChC	SP51	89	147	Rex Brothers, Col	RP45	NR
73	Wade Miley, Ari	SP52	72	148	Joaquin Benoit, Det	RP46	148
74	Ervin Santana, KC	SP53	75	149	Jeff Locke, Pit	SP103	150
75	Justin Masterson, Cle	SP54	91	150	Sean Marshall, Cin	RP47	141

HacheMan · May 21, 2013

Realistic expectations for Matt Kemp

Eric Karabell

Rumors that Los Angeles Dodgers skipper Don Mattingly could be out of work soon make little sense, since he’s not the one who built his flawed yet expensive team, rife with injuries, poor play and a lack of depth. On Monday night in Milwaukee, the Dodgers won 3-1, as ace lefty Clayton Kershaw went the distance to earn his fifth win, but the bigger story was how the team scored its runs, because only the feeble Miami Marlins are doing so at a lesser pace than Mattingly’s last-place bunch.
Outfielders Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier provided the run support Monday, Kemp with a solo home run and Ethier with one of his own, as well as a run-scoring triple to score Kemp, who had walked. Fantasy owners should remain committed to Kemp, the No. 6 overall pick in average live drafts, but even ESPN’s fantasy rankers (myself included) didn’t show quite the faith of the preseason expectations, dropping him to 18th overall. Kemp’s home run was merely his second of the season, and first in 97 plate appearances, a career-long drought. Is it a slump, an injury, his dating life? Who knows, but surely the fantasy world and Dodgers fans expected an MVP candidate, not fewer home runs than teammate Scott Van Slyke.

Clearly we view Kemp as a buy-low candidate, for he’s only two years removed from a 39-homer, 40-steal campaign. He’s currently on pace for eight home runs and 23 steals. One has to think the offseason surgery on his left shoulder is a significant factor, and if that’s the case Kemp should get stronger as the season goes on. His contact rate is down, his walk rate is down and obviously the power has been a problem, with only 11 extra-base hits. Kemp is not a guy fantasy owners can drop, but I’d be cautious in what you trade to acquire him. I ranked him 20th overall last week, and believe a 20-homer, 25-steal season is reasonable, but he’s far from a sure thing, just like many of his underachieving teammates.
Ethier is already down to 80 percent owned, and while I think he can still reach modest power totals of 20 home runs and 80 RBIs, there’s also evidence he’s no lock to achieve those numbers. Ethier is hitting many more fly balls as opposed to grounders than in recent seasons, which is a good sign, and he appears healthy. He’s a career .289 hitter, so expecting a strong batting line is reasonable. Why is he being dropped? Well, outfield is deep for those in 10- and 12-team formats, but I think we’ll soon see Ethier being added again. He remains a top-50 outfielder for me. The Dodgers are scheduled to face right-handed pitching all week, including a meeting next Monday with the oh-so-hittable Joe Blanton. Ethier does his best work against right-handers and at some point when Hanley Ramirez returns and Adrian Gonzalez is healthier, the lineup will be more formidable. It’s still got issues, like at third base (a collective .173 batting average and .490 OPS) and with the annoying Dee Gordon, and it’s feasible we’ll see prospect Yasiel Puig if there’s an outfield injury, but he’s not worth stashing now.
Box score bits (AL): Texas Rangers second baseman Jurickson Profar knocked in a pair of runs without a base hit in his season debut Monday, doing so from the No. 9 lineup slot. As noted Monday, Profar is a legit talent, but this is likely a short-term opportunity, so add him but be prepared for Profar to return to the minors soon. … Remember when Cleveland Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis hit .200 in April and impatient owners wanted to cut him? Kipnis had two more hits Monday, his fifth consecutive multihit performance, and stole his ninth base. Kipnis is a building block fantasy option. … Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Jake Odorizzi made his season debut Monday, in the injured David Price’s spot, and permitted three runs in five innings, earning a no-decision. Odorizzi fanned six. He’s a sketchy deep-league option this weekend against the New York Yankees. … Those spot-starting Kansas City Royals right-hander Jeremy Guthrie in Houston didn’t enjoy the results; Guthrie allowed eight hits and six runs in five messy innings. Just when you want to buy in on the rejuvenated pitcher, he does this. The Astros, by the way, are not the best team to spot start against, being 19th in runs scored.
Box score bits (NL): Cincinnati Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto made his first start in five weeks Monday against the New York Mets, allowing three hits and three runs in five innings, striking out eight. Cueto’s big mistake was a Marlon Byrd three-run home run. Cueto should be active in all leagues for his next outing, scheduled to be Sunday against the Chicago Cubs. … Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels lost again Monday, his NL-leading seventh in eight decisions, but he remains a wise buy-low choice nevertheless. Hamels fanned a season-high 10 and is on pace for close to 200. … Braves right-hander Julio Teheran brought a shutout into the ninth inning against the Minnesota Twins on Monday until allowing a Josh Willingham home run. Teheran hasn’t allowed more than three runs in his past five outings. He isn’t piling on the strikeouts, but could warrant mixed-league consideration soon. … Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Patrick Corbin continues to dazzle, even at Coors Field on Monday when he won his seventh game by going the distance, allowing one run and striking out 10. Corbin looks nothing like the struggling rookie from 2012, and while he’s a bit like Tampa Bay’s Matt Moore -- this pace is unsustainable -- his future is bright. … For all the complaining about San Francisco Giants first baseman Brandon Belt, his homer Monday was his sixth, and his four hits brought his average to .261. What’s Eric Hosmer doing? … Giants right-hander Ryan Vogelsong broke his hand Monday, while giving his best performance of a disappointing season, and will miss perhaps two months. He’s not worth keeping around in the interim.

HacheMan · May 21, 2013

Is it time to give up on Danny Espinosa?

Eric Karabell

The past two seasons, Washington Nationals middle infielder Danny Espinosa had been an attractive fantasy option, totaling 38 home runs and 37 stolen bases. Sure, he never was particularly helpful in the batting average category, but Espinosa played in 158 and 160 games in 2011 and 2012, respectively, and it was more than reasonable to target him in the mid- to later rounds this season. Espinosa finished the 2012 season 21st among middle infielders on the Player Rater and was drafted, on average, in the 14th round of ESPN live drafts.

However, with seven weeks of the season complete, it seems many owners have seen enough. Espinosa is down to 40 percent owned, as his batting average slumps to .163.

It's probably not a coincidence that his batting average is down so much as he attempts to play through a torn rotator cuff in his left shoulder. He originally hurt the shoulder in September and struggled the final weeks of 2012. Well, little has changed. While Espinosa sat Monday night in San Francisco for ordinary Stephen Lombardozzi, the Nationals were shut out for the sixth time this season and certainly want their switch-hitting starter and defensive asset to improve.

[+]Enlarge

<CITE>John McDonnell/The Washington Post</CITE> Drafted as a third baseman, Anthony Rendon has been playing second base at Double-A.

At some point, the underachieving Nationals, carrying a .227 team batting average and the third-worst scoring offense in baseball, could look for another solution. That could be the enticing Anthony Rendon, the sixth pick of the 2011 draft who has been logging at-bats as the Double-A Harrisburg second baseman. On Monday night, Rendon, hitting third in the lineup, smacked an RBI double to center field in the third inning at Erie, and the 1-for-4 performance actually lowered his batting average to .346 and dropped his OPS to 1.136. He has 27 walks, 22 strikeouts and 19 extra-base hits in 30 games. Rendon got 25 at-bats with Washington last month when third baseman Ryan Zimmerman was on the disabled list, and he hit .240 with one extra-base hit and five walks versus seven strikeouts. That small sample size doesn't tell us much, just like his current numbers for the Senators aren't particularly meaningful.

The point is that many judge Rendon's bat and offensive potential as big league-ready, with 20-homer pop and modest batting-average expectations. While it's reasonable to have reservations about him handling second base on a regular basis, the Nationals might be desperate for help. We can assume Espinosa wants to avoid surgery on his ailing shoulder, and though he hasn't used the shoulder as an excuse for his poor play, clearly something is amiss. It's not only the .163 batting average, pushed down by a recent stretch with one hit in 28 at-bats, including 13 strikeouts.

For the season, Espinosa has whiffed 38 times, a rate that is down a tad from his National League-leading total of 189 K's a year ago. But he has a mere three walks, so it's obvious pitchers can challenge Espinosa knowing his aggressive ways are a major handicap. That walk percentage is hard to believe. Chris Iannetta walked four times in one game over the weekend. Three walks in seven weeks? Yikes. Espinosa also boasts by far the worst line drive rate in baseball (barely 10 percent), and he's seeing a ton of fastballs, which again leads us to believe his shoulder is an issue.

The Nationals did get right fielder Bryce Harper back in the lineup Monday after he missed a few games with a sore knee, but left fielder Jayson Werth (hamstring) will not be ready to return from the DL this week and the team has received little production from Tyler Moore, Roger Bernadina and Lombardozzi in his spot. While first baseman Adam LaRoche has predictably rebounded in May, hitting .339 with four home runs, shortstop Ian Desmond has slumped, hitting .203.

The Nationals definitely hit last year, finishing 10th in the majors in runs scored, and Harper is even better. I'm buying low on most of the team's hitters, from LaRoche to Desmond to eventually Werth, and Rendon is a wise stash in deeper formats. It seems likely he'll get a chance soon if Espinosa doesn't turn things around, and frankly, there's little reason to expect a banged-up Espinosa to do that.

HacheMan · May 21, 2013

[h=1]In-house upgrades for contenders[/h][h=3]Why Anthony Rendon, Chris Carpenter and others can help now[/h]By Dan Szymborski | ESPN Insider

Baseball has now passed the quarter mark of the season, meaning that a player or team's slow start can no longer completely be written off as just another April slump. Most teams haven't thrown in the towel yet -- and teams such as the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins already have traded most of their players with value -- so pulling off a trade deadline-type rental is difficult in May.

As a result, most team upgrades at this point of the year will be made in-house, from players already in the organization. Contenders in particular have good reason to have limited patience with their biggest holes. So, which players likely to be called up will have the biggest potential impact on pennant races?

Note: We're focusing on contenders here, so a player such as Christian Yelich of the Marlins doesn't make this list. For each player listed, the ZiPS Rest-of-Season projection is included.

[h=3]Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals[/h]
The Nationals and the prospect-hounds never really had a great deal of concern about how good Rendon would be. The questions around him tended to circulate around his ability to stay on the field because of a history of ankle injuries. Healthy so far in 2013, Rendon has hit .346/.482/.654 for Harrisburg and already has received a taste of the majors when Ryan Zimmerman was injured.
<OFFER>Danny Espinosa has been a wreck in 2013 and there's only so much of his struggles that one can blame on a very low BABIP. Every season in the majors, Espinosa has swung at more pitches outside the strike zone, from 29.3 percent of the time while getting a cup of coffee in the majors in 2010 to 32.1 percent in 2011 to 40.5 percent last year to 42.2 percent this year. Even without the advanced stats, a 38-3 K/BB ratio is quite troubling.

Rendon has a lot more experience at third base, but with Zimmerman in the way, second base is the best shot for Rendon to make an impact this season, and he has played a handful of games there in the minors this year. The Nats, only 3½ games behind the Braves, can't afford to wait on Espinosa any longer.

ZiPS rest of season projection: .256/.345/.430, 7 HR, 36 RBI

[h=3]Kevin Gausman, SP, Baltimore Orioles[/h]
The unexpected competence of the starting rotation was one of the most pleasant surprises for the O's in their 2012 Cinderella run, but the follow-up campaign has been considerably less promising. The ERA of the rotation stands at 4.85, a weak enough figure that Baltimore's fourth-ranked offense is just barely keeping the team above the .500 mark. With Jason Hammel struggling and Wei-Yin Chen on the shelf, the O's are seeing way too much of Freddy Garcia, Jair Jurrjens and other fill-in pitchers.

Enter Gausman, the No. 4 pick in last year's draft. The O's have been resistant to calling him up, but it's hard to look past a sterling 49-5 K/BB ratio at Double-A, suggesting that the hype that he was one of the most major league-ready players in last year's draft wasn't just hype. J.D. Sussman of FanGraphs has been following Gausman and his scouting report makes it seems as though it's going to be hard for the team to resist a big upside play to keep from falling out of the race. You have to challenge your top prospects and it seemed to work out pretty well with that Manny Machado guy last year …

ZiPS rest of season projection: 9-6, 3.86 ERA, 120 IP, 31 BB, 104 K

[h=3]Darin Ruf, OF, Philadelphia Phillies[/h]
If the current Phillies are going to slap together one last run at the playoffs, they're going to have to score more runs. That may seem like an obvious fix, but what they can actually do about it is the hard part given that the team doesn't have a lot of flexibility at the major league level.

At 26 years old, Ruf is not a young prospect, isn't likely to develop much further, and the Phils need to see what he can do now. Delmon Young is a disaster -- if you're using your team's best pitcher to pinch run for an outfielder, you need to seriously reevaluate the thought process that led to the latter's acquisition. Ruf generally never made prospect lists, but he hit .317/.408/.620 for Reading last year and when given a chance in the majors, hit .333/.351/.727 in a dozen games, doing everything the team asked of him. Ruf is still recovering from a slow start for Lehigh Valley, but unless Philadelphia is willing to shed its remaining minor league depth in a blockbuster, he's the most likely source of any kind of better offense in-house.

ZiPS rest of season projection: .255/.322/.415, 14 HR, 52 RBI

[h=3]Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers[/h]
Ian Kinsler's injury gave Profar a shot at regular playing time in the majors and at this point, it's best for the Rangers if Profar plays well enough to cause some uncomfortable lineup questions when the incumbent Kinsler returns. David Murphy has been better in May after an abysmal .176/.227/.297 split in April, but he's still likely the weak spot in the lineup and left field is a practical short-term home for the odd man out in the infield. It's not a long-term fix, but figuring out a way to get Profar, Kinsler and Elvis Andrus all in the game at once would be beneficial.

ZiPS rest of season projection: .264/.335/.411, 9 HR, 43 RBI, 13 SB

[h=3]Chris Carpenter, SP, St. Louis Cardinals[/h]
Not the typical midseason addition, Carpenter's path from likely retirement in March to a possible return to the rotation in his umpteenth comeback isn't just a good story, but now he is more urgently needed in St. Louis thanks to injuries. The recurrence of Jaime Garcia's shoulder pain points to surgery being likely (he already has attempted the non-surgical options), Jake Westbrook is on the DL with elbow inflammation and the Cards have shown little desire to move Trevor Rosenthal out of a bullpen that has been generally lousy.

St. Louis needs better 2013 options than Tyler Lyons or John Gast, neither of whom the Cards intended to be getting starts in the majors. Michael Wacha turned some heads in the spring and has a 1.89 ERA in the hitter-friendly PCL, but his K/9 rate of 6.0 in Triple-A suggests that he could still use a little more time. Carpenter is hoping to start minor league rehab in a few weeks and he'd be the best option to fill out the rotation if he can manage it.

ZiPS rest of season projection: 4-3, 3.96 ERA, 75 IP, 17 BB, 60 K

[h=3]Josh Phegley, C, Chicago White Sox[/h]
You may not be bowled over by Phegley's minor league career stats, but one thing the stats don't know is that Phegley's early minor league career was derailed by a blood disorder known as ITP or idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura. No, it's not a disease created in the secret biolab of former Astros GM Tim Purpura, but an autoimmune disorder that affects platelet count in bone marrow and can cause bleeding and physical weakness.

Phegley had his spleen removed in 2010 and given that catcher is the most difficult position for players to develop offensively, it has taken some time for Phegley's bat to come around. But this season it has, with Phegley hitting .333/.393/.659 for Charlotte with 10 homers in 126 at-bats, already more homers before the end of May than he had hit in any professional season.

The White Sox are dead last in the AL in offense, a dreadful result for a team playing in a hitter's park and in the same league as the Astros. The team can't give up on Paul Konerko this quickly and remains unlikely to give up on Adam Dunn. However, it's time to give up on Tyler Flowers and his career .202/.295/.373 as a starting catcher. It's a miracle the White Sox have stayed close enough to be a threat, but they won't last long if they don't find bats somewhere.

ZiPS rest of season projection: .269/.311/.417, 9 HR, 36 RBI

HacheMan · May 22, 2013

Reasons behind B.J. Upton's slump

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

We've got an early leader for fantasy bust of 2013: B.J. Upton.

He leads the race by a mile: The No. 49 player selected on average in the preseason, Upton entered Wednesday's action 733rd overall on our Player Rater, that near-700-spot differential the largest of any player who hasn't missed time due to injury.

What's worse, Upton's current .155 batting average puts him in contention for the worst batting average in a season of at least 500 plate appearances -- that record is held by Rob Deer (.179, in 1991) -- and you can be sure that the Atlanta Braves, who are paying him more than $13 million this year and more than $75 million in the next four, will keep trotting him out there so he'll remain batting title-eligible.

Fantasy owners, however, might not be able to afford such patience.

Upton's struggles aren't necessarily news; one month ago, his owners were concerned. On May 22, they're in flat-out panic, and it took a tweet from a fellow Tout Wars competitor to draw my attention -- and we're talking fine-tooth comb attention -- back to Upton's issues. After all, he's a member of my NL-only squad (12-team league), and he was one of the poster boys for the season-opening edition of "Hit Parade," discussing my Tout Wars punt-batting-average strategy.

For full disclosure, Upton is a member of four of my fantasy teams, teams that reside in first (out of 12 teams), third (of 12), fourth (of 10) and fifth (of nine), so his full-season prognosis is especially important from a personal angle. And this isn't reported to draw attention to my own teams -- there's no reason for you to care -- but rather to stress that if you own him, we're in the same boat. Yes, that might be true for most players in baseball, considering the number of teams I field annually, but I'm forced to make specific, strategic decisions about Upton in the upcoming days. Let me share the thoughts behind these.

[h=3]On Upton and streakiness[/h]"Ride the streak" might be a common expression of mine on the Fantasy Focus podcast, granted mostly a tongue-in-cheek approach, but Upton is a player who annually has presented his fantasy owners with stretches of stats that reside at either extreme. Owning him means accepting such streakiness.

Through Tuesday, Upton had played 41 games this season, and in every one of his big league seasons he has endured a 41-game span of excessively high and low batting averages. In 2012, he had a 41-game span in which he batted .195, and another during which he batted .320. In 2011, his 41-game extremes were .167 and .301. In 2010, they were .203 and .283; in 2009, .190 and .305; and in 2008, .213 and .323.

It's 2009 that represents Upton's greatest prospects at a turnaround. But let's also not brush away the fact that 2009 was also his worst full season as a big league regular, as he batted .241/.313/.373, his .686 OPS easily a career low. Upton sported .191/.288/.283 triple-slash rates through 41 games that year; he managed .264/.325/.413 numbers with nine homers and 28 RBIs in his next 103 games.

Upton's triple-slash rates this season are .155/.246/.264, however, quite a bit worse than they were even in 2009. This argument hardly takes him off the hook.

[h=3]On adjusting to the new league[/h]
This was a thought of mine at the onset of the 2012-13 offseason, and it was behind my surprisingly low initial ranking of Upton. The thinking was that Upton, a player who sometimes showed a lack of focus during his time in Tampa Bay, might have stepped up his game a bit with a payday in his sights, best evidenced by the 18 home runs he hit in his final 50 contests.

Now in his first season with his new team and in the more pitching-oriented National League, Upton might have faced a stiffer challenge battling a new set of pitchers in an unfamiliar set of ballparks. Or at least that was my concern, one partly alleviated thanks to the Braves' acquisition of his brother Justin. (There's little doubt that made the team significantly better.)

The problem is that Upton's statistics don't necessarily support this theory. Approaching it from two angles, the following represents statistics against the 27 pitchers he has faced in at least 25 plate appearances in his career; they're broken down by stats in his first four PAs against each, then in all subsequent PAs:

First 4 PAs: .234 AVG, .340 SLG, 13.8 BB%, 33.0 K%
Fifth PA forward: .255 AVG, .452 SLG, 11.8 BB%, 28.9 K%
Upton's overall career stat line: .251 AVG, .415 SLG, 10.6 BB%, 25.4 K%

Those represent a noticeable increase in power, perhaps supporting the theory, but keep in mind that many of those PAs in the first group came earlier in Upton's career, when he hadn't exactly settled in at the big league level. Upton's slugging percentage in his first 95 games, in parts of 2004 and 2006, was .347.

Now let's look at how Upton has done against unfamiliar competition this year. Out of his 164 PAs, 40 percent have come against pitchers he had never seen before. The stats below are broken down into three groups: Pitchers he had never faced before (through Tuesday's games), pitchers he had faced between 1-4 PAs previously, and pitchers he had already faced in at least five career PAs.

Never faced: .193/.303/.333, 12.1 BB%, 33.3 K%
One to four PAs: .108/.195/.108, 9.8 BB%, 39.0 K%
Five-plus PAs: .140/.214/.240, 7.0 BB%, 29.8 K%

Clearly, Upton has stunk against everyone this year, familiar or unfamiliar. Though the history of players struggling with a league change is significant -- this analysis done for the magazine several years back when Miguel Cabrera joined the Detroit Tigers, then cited when Prince Fielder signed with the same team -- Upton's issues, again, exceed "acceptable" such levels.

[h=3]On Upton's free-swinging ways[/h]
This is the area of greatest concern for Upton, whose 32.7 percent strikeout rate thus far was exceeded at only one other stage of his career: He whiffed 33.9 percent of the time during his first 42 games of 2007. (Incidentally, Upton batted .308/.384/.555 during that span, a remarkable feat.)

Using our pitch-tracking tool, the statistics below show Upton's gradual decline in terms of plate discipline -- not just restricted to his 2013 numbers (through Tuesday):

2009: 9.1 BB%, 24.3 K%, 24 Miss%, 20 Miss% in the zone
2010: 11.0 BB%, 26.9 K%, 28 Miss%, 21 Miss% in the zone
2011: 11.1 BB%, 25.2 K%, 26 Miss%, 20 Miss% in the zone
2012: 7.1 BB%, 26.7 K%, 32 Miss%, 25 Miss% in the zone
2013: 9.8 BB%, 33.5 K%, 33 Miss%, 29 Miss% in the zone

During the past four full seasons (2009-12), five qualified hitters sported a sub-.200 batting average with a miss rate of at least 30 percent on swings on the morning of May 22: Rickie Weeks in 2012, Adam Dunn, Jonny Gomes and Mark Reynolds in 2011 and Drew Stubbs in 2010.

Here's how that group fared before and after May 22:

Through May 21: .179 AVG, .340 SLG, 29.6 K%, 13.2 BB%, 32 Miss%
May 22 forward: .234 AVG, .433 SLG, 29.7 K%, 11.4 BB%, 31 Miss%

That at least represents "regression to the mean" hope for Upton, who was projected to bat .245 with a .431 slugging percentage in the preseason, but even if he hits those numbers from today forward, he'll finish significant short of his full-season projection considering a quarter-plus of his year is in the books. It certainly doesn't support any part of his buy-low case other than "he has to get better, doesn't he?"

Yes, Upton has to get better, if only because he statistically can't get much worse. Still, let's set his new baseline, considering that there are 116 remaining Braves games, at a .220 batting average, 11 home runs, 43 RBIs and 24 stolen bases, beneath Upton's per-116-games career averages. The dual homer-steals contribution will surely grant him a respectable Player Rater ranking from this point forward, but might you be able to piece together comparable numbers to that merely filling his spot via the waiver wire the rest of the year.

In short, Upton drops precipitously in my rankings this week upon further analysis, and I'm wondering whether, for the rest of the year, he's going to be much closer in value to Drew Stubbs' 2012 stat line (.213 AVG, 14 HR, 40 RBI, 30 SB) than the No. 97 overall ranking I gave Upton a week ago.

Stubbs finished 2012 the No. 226 player overall.

Upton isn't the only player mired in a miserable season-opening slump. Let's take a look at two others in the midst of all-time poor performances, and discuss their rest-of-year outlooks:
Ike Davis: Having a little fun with arbitrary end points, Davis' performance through May 21 of each of the past two seasons is astonishing:

Through May 21, 2012: .161/.218/.299, 5 HR, 6.8 BB%, 27.9 K%
Through May 21, 2013: .149/.229/.248, 4 HR, 8.9 BB%, 30.6 K%

Now, here's a look at how he did the rest of last season:

116 G, 437 PA, .251/.339/.521, 27 HR, 11.7 BB%, 22.9 K%

Those statistics alone offer encouragement to Davis' fantasy owners, but they're also the only rational thing supporting his cause. Frankly, Davis is subject to the same pattern of regression to the mean that Upton is above, and that would hardly put his numbers going forward within range of what he did from this date forward in 2012 -- and keep in mind that he didn't even heat up last season until approximately the second week of June.

Davis at least seemed not to be totally helpless against breaking pitches last season, hitting 11 home runs against curveballs and sliders combined, three of them by May 21. This season, through Tuesday's games, he's a .135 hitter with a whopping 22 K's in 37 at-bats, going deep only once. He has significant adjustments to make in this area before he can be safely projected even a .250 hitter with 25-homer power going forward.

Danny Espinosa: He's a .159 hitter with a 27.6 percent strikeout rate, but most disturbingly, he has worked only three walks in his 145 plate appearances to date, for a 2.1 percentage. What's more, Espinosa has hit a higher percentage of ground balls this season (51.0 percent) than last (48.5 percent), and made hard contact significantly less often (.114 well-hit average in 2013, .192 in 2012).

The concern with Espinosa is the injury to his non-throwing shoulder, which might have contributed to his sluggish start. Those latter statistics support this case, and the fact that the Washington Nationals are reportedly experimenting with prospect Anthony Rendon at second base in the minors hints that they might have long-term health concerns with their big league regular. That he's excluded from my top 150 hitters this week illustrates the validity of these concerns.

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[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<CENTER># </CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rk </CENTER>	<CENTER>Prv Rk </CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rk </CENTER>	<CENTER>Prv Rk </CENTER>
1	Miguel Cabrera, Det	3B1	1	76	Starling Marte, Pit	OF35	74
2	Mike Trout, LAA	OF1	3	77	Torii Hunter, Det	OF36	75
3	Ryan Braun, Mil	OF2	2	78	Brett Gardner, NYY	OF37	79
4	Robinson Cano, NYY	2B1	4	79	Martin Prado, Ari	3B9	73
5	Carlos Gonzalez, Col	OF3	5	80	Lorenzo Cain, KC	OF38	83
6	Justin Upton, Atl	OF4	6	81	Howie Kendrick, LAA	2B9	88
7	Andrew McCutchen, Pit	OF5	8	82	Kyle Seager, Sea	3B10	87
8	Prince Fielder, Det	1B1	7	83	Wilin Rosario, Col	C5	86
9	Evan Longoria, TB	3B2	9	84	Michael Morse, Sea	OF39	84
10	Joey Votto, Cin	1B2	10	85	Norichika Aoki, Mil	OF40	85
11	Troy Tulowitzki, Col	SS1	12	86	Aramis Ramirez, Mil	3B11	89
12	David Wright, NYM	3B3	11	87	Ryan Howard, Phi	1B11	81
13	Adam Jones, Bal	OF6	14	88	Josh Willingham, Min	OF41	80
14	Edwin Encarnacion, Tor	1B3	15	89	Nick Swisher, Cle	OF42	98
15	Bryce Harper, Wsh	OF7	13	90	B.J. Upton, Atl	OF43	60
16	Paul Goldschmidt, Ari	1B4	18	91	Shane Victorino, Bos	OF44	82
17	Dustin Pedroia, Bos	2B2	17	92	Melky Cabrera, Tor	OF45	94
18	Albert Pujols, LAA	1B5	16	93	Brandon Moss, Oak	1B12	91
19	Jose Bautista, Tor	OF8	19	94	Jose Reyes, Tor	SS11	100
20	Buster Posey, SF	C1	20	95	Justin Morneau, Min	1B13	107
21	Adrian Beltre, Tex	3B4	24	96	Kendrys Morales, Sea	1B14	104
22	Alex Gordon, KC	OF9	28	97	Mike Napoli, Bos	C6	97
23	Matt Holliday, StL	OF10	23	98	Yonder Alonso, SD	1B15	102
24	Matt Kemp, LAD	OF11	22	99	Brian McCann, Atl	C7	129
25	Brandon Phillips, Cin	2B3	25	100	Mark Reynolds, Cle	1B16	95
26	Jay Bruce, Cin	OF12	29	101	Josh Rutledge, Col	SS12	93
27	Carlos Gomez, Mil	OF13	27	102	Kevin Youkilis, NYY	3B12	103
28	Starlin Castro, ChC	SS2	26	103	Nolan Arenado, Col	3B13	101
29	Shin-Soo Choo, Cin	OF14	31	104	Matt Wieters, Bal	C8	99
30	Billy Butler, KC	1B6	34	105	Chris Carter, Hou	1B17	106
31	Chase Headley, SD	3B5	32	106	Todd Frazier, Cin	3B14	96
32	Curtis Granderson, NYY	OF15	33	107	Pedro Alvarez, Pit	3B15	114
33	Ian Desmond, Wsh	SS3	30	108	Brett Lawrie, Tor	3B16	92
34	Pablo Sandoval, SF	3B6	36	109	J.J. Hardy, Bal	SS13	121
35	Alex Rios, CWS	OF16	42	110	Brandon Belt, SF	1B18	131
36	Adrian Gonzalez, LAD	1B7	35	111	Jed Lowrie, Oak	SS14	105
37	Michael Bourn, Cle	OF17	45	112	Andrelton Simmons, Atl	SS15	109
38	Ian Kinsler, Tex	2B4	21	113	Coco Crisp, Oak	OF46	112
39	Mark Trumbo, LAA	OF18	37	114	Alfonso Soriano, ChC	OF47	116
40	Carl Crawford, LAD	OF19	40	115	Dan Uggla, Atl	2B10	115
41	Carlos Santana, Cle	C2	39	116	Nick Markakis, Bal	OF48	120
42	Allen Craig, StL	1B8	46	117	Ben Revere, Phi	OF49	122
43	Austin Jackson, Det	OF20	47	118	Josh Donaldson, Oak	3B17	123
44	Yoenis Cespedes, Oak	OF21	44	119	Matt Carpenter, StL	2B11	126
45	Jean Segura, Mil	SS4	52	120	Domonic Brown, Phi	OF50	130
46	Dexter Fowler, Col	OF22	43	121	Paul Konerko, CWS	1B19	111
47	Ben Zobrist, TB	2B5	41	122	Juan Pierre, Mia	OF51	117
48	Anthony Rizzo, ChC	1B9	48	123	Mark Teixeira, NYY	1B20	128
49	Jason Heyward, Atl	OF23	50	124	Erick Aybar, LAA	SS16	113
50	Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos	OF24	38	125	Andy Dirks, Det	OF52	134
51	Freddie Freeman, Atl	1B10	49	126	Adam LaRoche, Wsh	1B21	149
52	Elvis Andrus, Tex	SS5	54	127	Rickie Weeks, Mil	2B12	108
53	Jose Altuve, Hou	2B6	53	128	Miguel Montero, Ari	C9	118
54	Chris Davis, Bal	OF25	57	129	Dee Gordon, LAD	SS17	124
55	Giancarlo Stanton, Mia	OF26	59	130	Jason Kubel, Ari	OF53	125
56	Josh Hamilton, LAA	OF27	58	131	Andre Ethier, LAD	OF54	133
57	Hunter Pence, SF	OF28	56	132	Jedd Gyorko, SD	2B13	139
58	Chase Utley, Phi	2B7	55	133	Matt Joyce, TB	OF55	142
59	Desmond Jennings, TB	OF29	51	134	Neil Walker, Pit	2B14	119
60	Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh	3B7	62	135	Aaron Hill, Ari	2B15	127
61	Manny Machado, Bal	3B8	65	136	Mitch Moreland, Tex	1B22	165
62	David Ortiz, Bos	DH1	63	137	Michael Saunders, Sea	OF56	132
63	Jason Kipnis, Cle	2B8	68	138	Justin Ruggiano, Mia	OF57	110
64	Nelson Cruz, Tex	OF30	66	139	Corey Hart, Mil	1B23	141
65	Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle	SS6	61	140	Michael Brantley, Cle	OF58	145
66	Joe Mauer, Min	C3	67	141	Nate McLouth, Bal	OF59	148
67	Yadier Molina, StL	C4	64	142	Jhonny Peralta, Det	SS18	155
68	Carlos Beltran, StL	OF31	70	143	Salvador Perez, KC	C10	136
69	Jimmy Rollins, Phi	SS7	71	144	Dayan Viciedo, CWS	OF60	213
70	Everth Cabrera, SD	SS8	78	145	Will Venable, SD	OF61	150
71	Michael Cuddyer, Col	OF32	90	146	J.P. Arencibia, Tor	C11	140
72	Alcides Escobar, KC	SS9	69	147	Vernon Wells, NYY	OF62	160
73	Angel Pagan, SF	OF33	72	148	Stephen Drew, Bos	SS19	138
74	Hanley Ramirez, LAD	SS10	77	149	Alexei Ramirez, CWS	SS20	153
75	Alejandro De Aza, CWS	OF34	76	150	Ryan Doumit, Min	C12	169

HacheMan · May 22, 2013

Should fantasy owners drop Matt Wieters?

<CITE class=byline>By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Baltimore Orioles catcher Matt Wieters celebrated his 27th birthday Tuesday with another hitless performance in four at-bats, dropping his season batting average to .223, but it’s hard to tell if fantasy owners have noticed. Wieters was supposed to be one of the top fantasy catchers this season, and perhaps he will get there, but it’s not going to happen with that batting average.
Wieters seems to have earned plenty of trust, as he remains one of seven catchers owned in 100 percent of ESPN standard mixed leagues, but all the others are hitting considerably better. Wieters was, after all, the fourth catcher chosen in ESPN live drafts and in the same sixth round as Nos. 2 and 3 Yadier Molina and Joe Mauer, but those guys are contending for batting titles, not hitting below their weight. Wieters has more consistent power potential than those fellows, but he also hit .249 two of the past three seasons, so it is reasonable to wonder if this start is the new, real thing.

The reason I bring this up is not to rip Wieters, who hits for power, takes walks and usually brings significant defensive value, as well. He’s in his prime and in deeper leagues there’s no reason to consider dumping him to add the likes of A.J. Pierzynski or J.P. Arencibia to replace him. But in ESPN standard leagues, only one catcher is needed per team, and if there are only 10 teams and Wieters isn’t among the top 10 catchers on the Player Rater, well, you do the math. I thought all catchers were overrated on draft day, as I had Buster Posey in my fourth round and Wieters at No. 85, but if we’ve been advising owners to move on from struggling catchers like Victor Martinez and Miguel Montero because there’s so much depth in shallow formats, will Wieters fit into that class and will people part with him?
If you think Wieters is going to hit .223 all season, then you should move on now. I don’t really believe that, as a low .237 BABIP should normalize some (his career rate is .289), his contact rate is actually at a career-best pace and he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone than either of the past two seasons, but I also don’t suddenly expect a month with a .320 batting average. Wieters, a switch-hitter, really doesn’t do much with right-handed pitching and over the past three full seasons he’s had only one month in which he hit .300 (.302 in August 2011). This isn’t John Buck -- well, the old John Buck with a career .236 batting average -- but those expecting Wieters to be an annual 30-homer guy who bats .270 are probably out of luck. I think what we saw last season is his baseline.
I stuck with Wieters as an 11th-rounder in last week’s mid-May staff rankings, but I was probably a bit too trusting. If I could do it over I would have moved most catchers down, and Wieters into the 13th or 14th round, as he really hasn’t had many strong at-bats lately. Wieters might end up at his current pace of 22 home runs and 83 RBIs -- nearly his 2012 season to the number -- and it wouldn’t be stunning if he added 20 points of batting average to boot. But are these numbers special? Are they difference-making, even for a catcher? The lure of Wieters heading into this season, and I argued against this with colleagues, was that he was turning 27, the supposed magic age for offensive growth -- I think it’s a year or two earlier -- and things could only improve. Well, it’s only seven weeks, but he’s not improving so far.
The bottom line is Wieters remains among my top 10 catchers, but barely, and with each 0-for-4 performance one has to think a few panicking owners will move on to whomever the hot catcher is that week. In the past week among the relatively ignored backstops playing well are Geovany Soto and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. I’ve seen people stream catchers, and it can work.
Last week, I ranked Posey, Molina, Carlos Santana and Mauer as my top tier at the position -- or Posey and then the others, if you insist -- and that was it for the overall top 100. Mike Napoli was my No. 5 catcher, with more power and batting average than Wieters, and then Wieters, Wilin Rosario seventh (he’s the top catcher on the Player Rater) and then a large drop-off to Miguel Montero, Brian McCann, Salvador Perez, Victor Martinez and Jonathan Lucroy. You have to go Rosario over Wieters at this point, and I certainly should have. McCann homered again Tuesday night, his fourth in a few weeks, and certainly he has a worthy track record and looks healthy. After that, nobody is really distancing themselves from the field. I’d keep Wieters owned in the 10- and 12-team one-catcher leagues, but he’s getting close to that territory in batting average, as we hit the two-month mark, where one has to consider if it’s worth it.
</CITE>

HacheMan · May 22, 2013

Diagnosing Hosmer and Moustakas' woes

Keith Law

HOUSTON -- Eric Hosmer looked like a future MVP as recently as spring training of 2012, but since then his failure to develop as a hitter has been one of the more surprising developments on the prospect front, and it's a major reason why the Kansas City Royals haven't played up to expectations. I scouted his game on Wednesday to try and get a sense of what has gone wrong.

Hosmer, the third overall pick in the strong 2008 draft -- two picks ahead of someone named Buster, and I don't mean Bluth -- was below-replacement level last year and is on pace to be worth less than a win above it this year. The most likely reason I can see is in his hands.

When Hosmer was tearing through the minors, his approach was exceedingly quiet, but since then it's become more and more complicated and less efficient at producing hard contact. Before reaching the majors, Hosmer would start his hands back by his left shoulder and load them behind him with one quick movement, putting them on a level with his lead shoulder and over a spot just behind his back foot. He'd step forward, start his weight transfer and then explode with a very rotational swing without moving his hands until he began that forward motion. It was simple and devastating.

Now, Hosmer starts his hands just behind his ear and they are in constant motion from when he gets set in the box to when he loads them in a position over his rear foot and lower than his front shoulder, which causes his back (left shoulder) to start to point up and back at the first base dugout. His hands continue moving as he strides, further back and further up, tracing half a circle, counterclockwise, before he brings them forward -- by which point he's already turned his hips most of the way. The torque he generates through hip rotation is wasted, and I think that's where his impressive raw power has gone.

If you want good news, Hosmer's bat speed is intact, and he's still in great shape. His at bats are solid, and he even hung in there on Tuesday night against a lefty specialist, Wesley Wright, brought in specifically to face him with two on in the eighth inning. But there is way too much untapped potential here, and if I can spot these alterations to Hosmer's swing mechanics, there's no reason the Royals couldn't do the same.

He's hitting .271/.342/.347, which shows he's not a lost cause, but the lack of power is alarming.

• I wish I could offer such a concrete opinion on Mike Moustakas' struggles, but there's nothing so glaringly different about his swing today. He's taking a much longer stride -- he used to have a minimal stride, just a short step forward that was more about having a trigger than transferring his weight -- and rather than whipping the bat through the zone as he used to do, he's almost dragging it behind him. It's possible that shortening his stride would help restore the lost bat speed, or at least keep him a little more closed through contact.

He always rolled over his lead foot a little, but that's more pronounced today than it was when he was in the minors. Hosmer can at least get by now because his plate discipline is so strong, but that's always been a weak point for Moustakas. He needs to hit to justify his place in the lineup, and right now his line is .180/.252/.309. I'd at least start by shortening his stride, if only to see if that can produce some short-term benefits.

• I should be back at Minute Maid Park on Wednesday night but will be bouncing between the Southland and Conference USA tournaments during the day, starting at the former at 9 a.m. and moving over to Rice's Reckling Park to try to catch Memphis' Sam Moll and Tulane's Tony Rizzotti in the late morning and afternoon. I look forward to seeing some of you along the way.

HacheMan · May 22, 2013

Don't dismiss Adam Dunn, Dan Uggla

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Relying on batting average drains such as Chicago White Sox first baseman Adam Dunn and Atlanta Braves second baseman Dan Uggla can be painful for any fantasy owner, but when they're hitting for power -- like they were Monday night -- they can still help a team. On Tuesday, they returned to their hitless ways, combining to go an evenly distributed 0-for-8 with four strikeouts. I admit to trying to ignore players like these on draft day, but by mid-May most fantasy owners have a better idea what type of offensive teams they possess, making it clearer if there's a need to add flawed power options, and if owning a .200 hitter is feasible.

Dunn smacked his 11th home run Monday, doing so with a first-inning, three-run blast off lefty Jon Lester. He's hitting a lame .168 and actually has more home runs than singles so far. That is tough to do, but then again, he's not paid to hit singles. What's interesting about Dunn is that entering Tuesday, five of his home runs had come in the past week, along with 13 RBIs, reassuring owners that last year's 41-homer season appears very much real. The year before, Dunn hit only 11 home runs. Will Dunn hit 30 more home runs this season? It's certainly possible, perhaps more likely than him hitting .200 the rest of the way. Regardless, he's approaching inclusion on ESPN's most-added list because owners are so desperate for power that they'll take it at any price.

<OFFER>Uggla's eighth home run likewise came in the opening inning Monday and with two men on base, and was also his lone hit of the night. Unlike Dunn, Uggla has been struggling of late, and sits at .179. We know these fellows are going to make many outs, but their power can be redeeming in the right situation as well. In Uggla's case, there are 20 players who have reached double digits in home runs so far, and New York Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano is the lone middle infielder in that class. I think position scarcity gets overrated, but certainly Uggla is enticing for that reason. If you need power and have a Joe Mauer-type or two to balance it out, a 25-homer second baseman is a treat, even if he isn't hitting near his weight.

It's generally not recommended to enter a season punting any category, but if you have to choose one at this point, nearly a third of the way through, batting average isn't a bad one. After all, you never punt power, and it's relatively easy to move up in stolen bases with a speedster or two. In pitching, saves is the category to dump. When it comes to batting average, Dunn and Uggla certainly weren't expected to help in that regard, but perhaps you're saddled with some combination of Josh Hamilton, Paul Konerko, Matt Wieters, B.J. Upton or one of the other top-100 players currently destroying your team batting average. Rather than jettison proven players for little return in an effort to help batting average, another option is to give up on the category and add others of that ilk, like Dunn or Uggla.

Of course, Dunn and Uggla are hardly alone. Of 169 players qualified for the batting title, 11 drag a sub-.200 batting average into Wednesday, and several are usable fantasy players: Dunn, Uggla, Pedro Alvarez, Mike Moustakas and Ike Davis, who deserves a blog entry all to himself. Those five players can hit for power, and I still think Upton and Rickie Weeks are worth owning. Hey, if your team batting average is already in the dumps, consider loading up on these players, because they contribute in other areas.

Box score bits (AL): White Sox lefty Jose Quintana took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday, ultimately allowing three singles in 6 1/3 shutout innings. Quintana hadn't won in nearly a month, and he's still not quite fodder for 10- or 12-team leagues. … Detroit Tigers right-hander Max Scherzer shut down a hot Cleveland Indians lineup Tuesday, allowing just two singles and a run in eight innings. Scherzer has been Detroit's top pitcher so far, and it's not so crazy to think it stays that way. … Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Matt Joyce left Tuesday's game early because of a tight hamstring. Joyce had two hits in the game, and in his past four games has six hits, two home runs and six RBIs. Not a bad deep-league option when healthy. … Oakland Athletics right-hander Dan Straily outdueled Texas Rangers right-hander Yu Darvish, winning 1-0 Tuesday. Straily lowered his 7.27 ERA to 5.73 with seven innings of two-hit ball. He's not a bad buy-low option, though his rotation spot is not secure.

Box score bits (NL): Chicago Cubs right-hander Matt Garza made a successful season debut Tuesday, tossing five shutout innings of one-hit ball at Pittsburgh. Garza missed more than half of 2012 with elbow woes, and isn't a lock to stay in the Cubs' rotation the rest of this year, but when active, he's worthy of owning in 10-team leagues. … Cincinnati Reds right-hander Mike Leake tossed seven shutout innings at Citi Field, permitting three hits. Leake's ERA dropped to 3.25. Meanwhile, Tony Cingrani has yet to pitch for Triple-A Louisville since his demotion. … Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard and his sore knee returned from a few days off to deliver three singles and three RBIs in Miami. Still, it's premature to expect he'll hit 25 home runs and avoid further injury. … Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Zack Greinke brought a 15-0 record and 2.89 ERA at Miller Park into Tuesday, then lost 5-2 to the Brewers, permitting 9 hits, 3 walks and 5 runs in four messy innings. Concerned about Greinke? Don't be.

HacheMan · May 22, 2013

[h=1]Mid-May rankings explanations[/h]By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

OK, I get it, I value players differently from other owners. This is not news to me.

This became readily apparent when our mid-May top 250 rankings were posted last week. The first six-plus weeks were in the books, and all we were to concern ourselves with was the final 19-plus weeks. So I fired up my spreadsheet, customized the rankings for a standard 10-team ESPN league and passed them along. Little did I know what havoc would ensue.

To say some of my rankings were different from the herd is an understatement. In a bit, I'll offer an explanation for several outlying projections. However, since some were so extreme, I'd first like to first describe the nuts and bolts of my methodology, because contrary to what some might believe, I didn't just pull names out of a hat or use a random number generator.

Simply put, I'm a numbers guy. My projections are "99.44 percent" stats-based and spreadsheet-driven. In short, a series of skills are translated into expected performance based on historical data and up-to-date projection theory protocols. As has been discussed in this column since its inception, skills do not always translate perfectly into expected performance. When a round bat meets a round ball, hits sometimes happen. But there is a great deal of happenstance. One of the tenets of projecting player performance is isolating the skill component and focusing on that to best foresee the future. My system focuses on said skills.

In a nutshell, what I do is come up with a weighted average of the expected skill and the current skill, with the level of regression determined by the findings of Russell Carleton and Tom Tango. For hitters, the skill that is quickest to stabilize is contact rate. Next is walk rate, followed by power and hit rate (which takes more than a season to be deemed reliable). To put things in perspective, we're already at the point of the season where at least part of a current contact rate is real. In other words, if a player is currently exhibiting a better or worse contact rate than expected, it's probable that going forward he will continue to do so. It could regress toward his expected mark, but remain better or worse. Jumping ahead a bit, it's this influence that is delineating my rankings from the pack, and in a lot of instances, it's the source of the consternation. Meanwhile, it takes basically a full season's worth of plate appearances before a batter's power level can be considered real, so this early in the season, the impact on home runs is minimal.

Pitchers follow a similar pattern, with strikeouts and walks stabilizing more rapidly while hits and home runs take much longer. Like hitters, if a pitcher is sporting a new strikeout rate and has faced ample batters, we can project him with an improved rate going forward. But we're not quite there in terms of walks, and as with hitting, it takes a season's worth of batters faced for hits and homers to be reliable. This all makes sense, as strikeouts and walks are the skills both hitters and pitchers can exhibit the most control over. The whole "round bat meeting round ball" thing introduces the luck element, which takes a much larger sample to flesh out.

With that as a backdrop, here are a handful of surprising observations I draw from my rankings:

[h=3]Alex Rios is a top-10 fantasy option[/h]

[h=4]Alex Rios[/h][h=5]OF, Chicago White Sox
Staff: 43.6; my rank: 9[/h]2013 STATS

GM42
AVG.301
R27
HR10
RBI25
SB7

Do you know where Rios finished last season on the ESPN Player Rater? Eleventh. That's right, Rios was the 11th-best fantasy option in 2012. And he's currently at No. 9 for this season. Yet I'm being raked over the coals (via Conversation posts) for having the audacity to suggest he'll remain there. I know the perception surrounding Rios: He's an every-other-year producer, and this was slated to be his down year. Well, apparently someone failed to inform the White Sox right fielder of this. Last season it took 25 homers, 23 steals and a .304 average to finish just outside the top 10 on the Player Rater. Is it really that outlandish to project a top-10 finish for a guy who is currently on pace to hit 39 homers with 27 pilfers?

To be clear, that's not my projection for him. From a skills perspective, Rios is displaying the same contact rate as last season, but with an improved walk rate. His BABIP is also quite similar. All this portends to him maintaining an average near .300. I actually pegged him for .287 going forward.

The main difference between this year and last is his spike in power. Rios set a career high with 25 dingers last season, so expecting another 30 is obviously a stretch, especially since, as I noted above, power takes so long to stabilize. We just can't consider the newfound power to be real. It comes from an increased HR/FB rate, along with hitting more fly balls. However, the HR/FB spike is not eye-popping, jumping to 18 percent from last year's 13 percent. The thing is, for Rios to end up as a top-10 option, you don't need him to maintain this elevated level. You only need him to do exactly as he did last season. Really, is that too much to ask?

Honestly, I think the misperception that Rios is an every-other-year player has kept many naive owners from realizing just how skilled and productive he really is. I stand by my contention that Rios will finish in the top 10 on the ESPN Player Rater.

[h=3]Jay Bruce is the new Adam Dunn[/h]

[h=4]Jay Bruce[/h][h=5]OF, Cincinnati Reds
Staff: 69.0; my rank: 218[/h]2013 STATS

GM43
AVG.279
R24
HR5
RBI28
SB0

OK, here's the deal: At the time we were asked to file our updated rankings, Bruce was whiffing at a 31 percent clip, well above his career level of 24 percent. He since has gone on one of his patented tears and brought that mark down to 29 percent, but I'm not going to back off my analysis and conclusion. That said, comparing Bruce to Adam Dunn is admittedly hyperbolic, as Dunn's career contact rate is worse than what Bruce has shown this season.

Based on the skills stability data, Bruce is going to strike out more than he did last season, a lot more. Keep in mind this is probability, not absolute, but the most likely outcome is Bruce whiffing at a career-high rate. His BABIP is presently .381, well above his career mark of .297. This is the luck element that needs to be eliminated from the rest-of-season calculation. From here on out, neutral luck should be anticipated. When that is combined with more strikeouts and a slight reduction in power, an average in the .240 range ensues. In standard ESPN leagues, this severely impacts his ranking. Bruce does not steal bases, so he offers no help there. So my objective analysis of Bruce has him hitting well below normal, with a small albeit meaningful decline in power.

I realize this is a hard sell regarding a player presently hitting .279 and in the throes of a hot streak. And in the name of full disclosure, plugging his current stats into my little black box does suggest a somewhat rosier scenario than I had for him last week. That said, his expected average is still in the .250 range with a reduction in power, so my ranking for him as of today would still be quite bad, just not as extreme. But I suspect I'd be taking just as much grief for ranking him, say, No. 157 than I am for ranking him No. 218. On the other hand, once this hot streak is over and Bruce turns cold again, the strikeouts will return and the expected average will again plummet. Bruce might not be Adam Dunn, but he's also not the power hitter with untapped upside that many believe he is.

[h=3]Chris Davis is 'too legit to quit'[/h]

[h=4]Chris Davis[/h][h=5]OF/1B, Baltimore Orioles
Staff: 74.7, my rank: 32[/h]2013 STATS

GM42
AVG.313
R26
HR12
RBI40
SB0

Davis is the opposite of Bruce in terms of skills. He's fanning 7 percent less than his career level, which, according to the skills stabilization data, suggests he has altered his contact rate baseline for the better and can be expected to continue to whiff less frequently. He's also drawing more walks, and because there is a positive correlation between walk rate and power, this portends to him maintaining a career-best power output, though this is far from definite considering the power skill is the slowest to stabilize. The small spike in Davis' 2013 power output can be explained by him simply lofting a few more fly balls; his HR/FB rate is the same.

I assume my colleagues are expecting Davis to revert more to his old swing-and-miss ways, while I'm trusting that the new contact rate in what they might perceive to be a small sample size can be real. While this is more of a topic for next spring, it should be noted that there is no guarantee Davis carries this improved contact rate into next season. In fact, the assumption should be that he won't. But I'm not concerned about next year, at least not yet. Because he's making better contact, Davis should finish with a 2013 Player Rater rank that is better than we all thought when we ranked him in the spring.

[h=3]Shin-Soo Choo: All aboard![/h]

[h=4]Shin-Soo Choo[/h][h=5]OF, Cincinnati Reds
Staff: 38.0; my rank: 22[/h]2013 STATS

GM43
AVG.309
R35
HR9
RBI19
SB5

The discrepancy here isn't as vast as some of the other ranks, largely due to Shawn Cwalinski ranking Choo at No. 18. However, his inclusion here is still warranted based on some of the comments in the Conversation section of the rankings article.

Choo is striking out less and walking more than originally expected, which is having both a direct and indirect impact on his numbers. Tangibly, his batting average is higher and the move to the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park has done wonders for his power. But that's not all. A projection encompasses not only the player's skills, but also his playing time and plate appearances. The Reds have Choo hitting leadoff, which in turn avails increased plate appearances. So not only is he playing better than expected, he's playing more than expected. My guess is it's this increased playing time that leads to the slightly different rankings.

[h=3]Ian Desmond is a one-year wonder[/h]

[h=4]Ian Desmond[/h][h=5]SS, Washington Nationals
Staff: 68.3; my rank: 182[/h]2013 STATS

GM43
AVG.268
R19
HR6
RBI17
SB4

There is actually a latent force driving this discrepancy over and above what I'll soon discuss. Coming into the season, I was already skeptical about Desmond -- I felt his 2012 breakout was more fluke than fact -- so my expected baseline is already lower than my colleagues'. Now factor in that he is whiffing more and walking less than last season and the cavernous gap in ranking is understandable, as I am further penalizing an already-tempered expectation.

Desmond's increased strikeout rate, along with a lower BABIP, has dropped his average 25 points. Fewer hits lead to lower across-the-board production, especially in steals and runs scored, so he doesn't have the counting stats to compensate for the .261 average I have for him going forward. I also don't factor in positions in my re-ranks. Why? Well, you'll just have to read my 2013 Draft Kit piece, in which I debunk the myth of position scarcity.

[h=3]Josh Rutledge is a poor man's Dustin Pedroia[/h]

[h=4]Josh Rutledge[/h][h=5]SS/2B, Colorado Rockies
Staff: 142.6; my rank: 39[/h]2013 STATS

GM42
AVG.247
R26
HR5
RBI13
SB5

As skeptical as I was on Desmond entering the season, I was that high on Rutledge. As such, my baseline was higher, as it reflected greater expectations than my colleagues. A huge part of this was and still is the playing time component. There is a cloud of doubt hanging over Rutledge's playing time, as Colorado has some viable alternatives, led by Eric Young Jr., who is currently chasing fly balls but could switch to picking up grounders when Michael Cuddyer returns. Still, I am confident Rutledge's skills will be sufficient enough to fend off Young.

In half of the 2012 campaign, Rutledge compiled a line of .274 average, eight homers and seven steals. Double that and you have a "Pedroia light" stat line, not exactly a laser show, but at least a couple of 1970s strobe lights. The knock against Rutledge was a subpar walk rate, and while he'll never be confused with Ted Williams in terms of plate patience, he has more than doubled his walk rate to an almost-acceptable mark of 7.8 percent. In addition, he has slashed his strikeouts by 3 percent.

So why is he hitting a scant .247? Well, Lady Luck has been rearing her ugly head (metaphorically speaking, of course; I'm sure she's a lovely woman). Rutledge is sporting a .267 BABIP, well below expected. Rutledge is hitting fewer line drives than normal, but remember that hit rates are very slow to stabilize, so in my secret sauce, I still expect Rutledge to carry a much higher BABIP going forward. When you regress his BABIP and factor in an improved walk and contact rate, I project Rutledge to hit around .290 from here on out. Now the Pedroia comparison seems a lot more palpable. If Pedroia is ranked No. 26, similar counting stats with an average a few points lower should warrant a rank at least closer to No. 39 than 143.

[h=3]Michael Saunders is the quietest 20/20 player in the game[/h]

[h=4]Michael Saunders[/h][h=5]OF, Seattle Mariners
Staff: 174.9; my rank: 64[/h]2013 STATS

GM27
AVG.247
R19
HR4
RBI12
SB6

Last season, in only 139 games, Saunders hit 19 homers and stole 21 bases. While this is more anecdotal than analytical, the revamped dimensions of his home park, Safeco Field, should help maintain if not increase his power. Plus, the Mariners upgraded their offense in the offseason, which should result in increased runs and RBIs to accompany the aforementioned homers and steals. Granted, Saunders hit only .247, but he still finished the 2012 campaign at No. 153 on the ESPN Player Rater. If you prorate what Saunders has done so far this season to the 553 plate appearances he had last year, he'll hit an identical .247, but with 21 homers and 32 steals, along with more runs and RBIs than last season. He's having a better year than last, yet he's ranked more than 20 spots worse than he finished 2012.

Perhaps many think my rank of 64 is overly optimistic, but I humbly disagree. His contact rate is identical to last year, and he's drawing more walks. If he can stay healthy, he can approach 20-20 for the rest of the season, let alone for his final line. Which leads me to ask this philosophical question: When Saunders hits a homers or steals a base, does anyone hear it?

[h=3]Aramis Ramirez is a top-20 player[/h]

[h=4]Aramis Ramirez[/h][h=5]3B, Milwaukee Brewers
Staff: 81.0; my rank: 16[/h]2013 STATS

GM16
AVG.352
R5
HR3
RBI12
SB0

Before you laugh, please consider these two facts: (1) Last season, Ramirez finished 23rd on the ESPN Player Rater; and (2) Between 2010 and 2012, no one played more innings at the hot corner than he did. Nobody. So without even considering skills and performance, all I'm expecting Ramirez to do is a smidge better than he did last season.

I know, I know, he's 36, and prior to 2010 he had a sketchy injury history. Furthermore, this is going to be a nearly impossible sell because he already has missed a large chunk of time because of a knee injury and there are recent mumblings that it's barking again. Maybe he hurt it during one of his jaunts around the bases after his pair of three-run homers over the weekend? I kid, but it serves the purpose of emphasizing how well Ramirez plays between injuries

I'm obviously fighting a losing battle here because my entire argument is based around Ramirez being more durable than perceived. I really can't make a strong case that a guy that has missed two of the previous four games is going to be a bastion of health for the next four-plus months. Instead, I'll qualify my statement with this: If he's healthy, it won't take much for Ramirez to be a top-20 player the rest of the season. OK, you can laugh now.

[h=3]Stephen Strasburg: Cause for concern[/h]

[h=4]Stephen Strasburg[/h][h=5]SP, Washington Nationals
Staff: 37.3; my rank: 73[/h]2013 STATS

GM9
IP57.1
W2
K's55
ERA2.83
WHIP1.12

We'll conclude this discussion with a couple of pitchers. Recall that the first skill to exhibit reliability for pitchers is strikeout rate. We're at the point of the season where it's safe to say that Strasburg won't be fanning batters at the clip he did last year, as evidenced by a drop in K/9 rate from 11.1 to 8.6. Fewer strikeouts has an additive impact on his ranking. First, strikeouts are a roto category, and he already is handicapped there because of his innings constraint. He's slated to toss around 200 frames, which, along with the reduced strikeout rate, puts him well behind the elite tier of pitchers. Fewer punchouts also has a negative impact on his ERA and WHIP, as that will result is a few more balls put into play. Some of these balls will be hits, and some of those hits will result in runs. Again the paucity of innings comes into play, as even if Strasburg manages to keep his ratios in check, the lower innings total reduces the impact they have to your team ERA and WHIP.

If Strasburg were still whiffing batters at last year's rate, he could accrue enough K's to overcome the deficiency in innings. But he isn't, so he won't. At least this season, Strasburg is not close to the same tier as Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw, the dynamic duo he was lumped in with by many this spring.

[h=3]Matt Moore is not yet a fantasy ace[/h]

[h=4]Matt Moore[/h][h=5]SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Staff: 65.1; my rank: 116[/h]2013 STATS

GM9
IP55.0
W8
K's54
ERA2.29
WHIP1.09

Yes, I am referring to the Matt Moore who is 8-0 with a 2.29 ERA. The problem here is he is walking even more hitters than last season, a rather unsightly 4.3 per nine innings. He's surviving on a BABIP below .200 that is sure to regress. The minuscule hit rate is masking a high home run rate, which could come back to haunt Moore once his hit rate corrects. Moore's FIP is 4.43 while his xFIP is 4.19, suggesting an ERA correction is right around the corner. Moore's stuff is great, and an 8.8 K/9 rate shows he can miss plenty of bats, but as long as the walks and homers remain elevated, once regression kicks in, his ERA will not remain an ace-worthy number.

Hopefully I have at least provided something to think about, even if you disagree with my rankings. If there are additional rankings you'd like explained, please post in the Conversation section of this column, and I'll do my utmost to address it.

Rank (preseason), name, eligibility, team	TC	EK	BR	AJM	TZ	SC	DH	AVG
1. (3) Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Det	1	2	2	1	1	1	1	1.3
2. (1) Ryan Braun, OF, Mil	2	1	1	4	2	2	2	2.0
3. (4) Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY	4	5	4	3	3	3	3	3.6
4. (2) Mike Trout, OF, LAA	3	3	3	2	7	5	5	4.0
5. (8) Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Col	5	4	5	5	5	4	6	4.9
6. (5) Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pit	8	8	7	6	4	6	4	6.1
7. (12) Justin Upton, OF, Atl	6	6	6	7	6	10	8	7.0
8. (10) Prince Fielder, 1B, Det	7	7	9	8	11	7	7	8.0
9. (14) Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD	11	12	12	10	19	8	9	11.6
10. (11) Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Col	15	11	10	15	10	11	11	11.9
11. (17) David Wright, 3B, NYM	12	10	14	11	8	19	13	12.4
12. (9) Joey Votto, 1B, Cin	10	16	8	13	23	12	14	13.7
13. (13) Justin Verlander, SP, Det	14	13	11	12	31	9	10	14.3
14. (36) Bryce Harper, OF, Wsh	16	9	19	26	17	16	15	16.9
15. (21) Evan Longoria, 3B, TB	9	15	18	14	35	20	12	17.6
15. (22) Felix Hernandez, SP, Sea	13	18	17	9	26	21	19	17.6
17. (33) Adam Jones, OF, Bal	17	14	13	20	25	13	23	17.9
18. (6) Matt Kemp, OF, LAD	29	20	21	23	13	14	16	19.4
19. (20) Jose Bautista, OF, Tor	23	22	23	21	15	23	24	21.6
20. (18) Adrian Beltre, 3B, Tex	32	21	30	18	12	17	25	22.1
21. (26) Ian Kinsler, 2B, Tex	27	26	22	16	14	33	18	22.3
22. (30) Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Tor	19	17	29	24	18	15	39	23.0
23. (16) Buster Posey, C/1B, SF	25	29	15	19	33	36	17	24.9
24. (70) Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Ari	22	19	26	40	28	22	20	25.3
25. (7) Albert Pujols, 1B, LAA	20	24	24	25	34	26	26	25.6
26. (25) Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Bos	21	25	25	17	38	37	21	26.3
27. (52) Yu Darvish, SP, Tex	18	23	16	29	49	29	27	27.3
28. (47) Adam Wainwright, SP, StL	24	27	27	28	54	28	34	31.7
29. (43) Matt Holliday, OF, StL	30	38	32	47	27	24	37	33.6
29. (31) Cliff Lee, SP, Phi	31	28	38	22	55	30	31	33.6
31. (42) Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Bos	51	50	20	27	20	40	29	33.9
32. (23) Stephen Strasburg, SP, Wsh	26	36	33	32	73	39	22	37.3
33. (75) Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cin	43	53	42	45	22	18	43	38.0
34. (40) Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cin	33	42	35	30	74	35	36	40.7
34. (34) Starlin Castro, SS, ChC	34	30	37	33	66	57	28	40.7
36. (50) Madison Bumgarner, SP, SF	28	41	45	31	61	46	38	41.4
37. (78) Alex Gordon, OF, KC	37	60	40	57	24	38	41	42.4
38. (37) Billy Butler, 1B, KC	53	31	43	56	42	41	33	42.7
39. (39) Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, LAD	46	56	28	42	29	54	48	43.3
40. (72) Alex Rios, OF, CWS	59	54	47	44	9	34	58	43.6
41. (98) Carlos Gomez, OF, Mil	35	43	34	66	36	32	60	43.7
42. (49) Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Oak	64	32	50	68	21	25	54	44.9
43. (24) David Price, SP, TB	63	34	39	36	99	47	35	50.4
44. (63) Chris Sale, SP, CWS	58	57	44	38	50	48	69	52.0
45. (51) Ben Zobrist, OF/2B/SS, TB	57	35	58	39	58	67	51	52.1
46. (32) Cole Hamels, SP, Phi	39	40	51	54	80	56	47	52.4
47. (60) Allen Craig, 1B/OF, StL	68	51	59	61	30	55	53	53.9
47. (29) Matt Cain, SP, SF	77	45	46	43	71	51	44	53.9
49. (79) Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Wsh	47	67	49	52	63	45	66	55.6
50. (94) Chase Headley, 3B, SD	44	76	56	93	62	43	30	57.7
51. (41) Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atl	42	89	41	46	79	52	59	58.3
52. (103) Anthony Rizzo, 1B, ChC	73	71	54	70	43	49	55	59.3
53. (73) Carlos Santana, C/1B, Cle	55	63	48	55	76	62	57	59.4
54. (88) Max Scherzer, SP, Det	36	75	69	62	85	27	71	60.7
55. (160) Matt Harvey, SP, NYM	50	33	31	122	59	42	90	61.0
56. (84) James Shields, SP, KC	69	46	68	65	89	44	70	64.4
57. (81) Matt Moore, SP, TB	54	48	61	69	116	66	42	65.1
58. (59) Austin Jackson, OF, Det	71	84	76	53	40	84	49	65.3
59. (67) Aroldis Chapman, RP/SP, Cin	45	90	65	60	88	64	50	66.0
60. (55) Michael Bourn, OF, Cle	67	77	60	84	52	70	68	68.3
60. (61) Ian Desmond, SS, Wsh	40	37	71	37	182	59	52	68.3
62. (35) Jay Bruce, OF, Cin	38	47	53	34	218	53	40	69.0
63. (57) CC Sabathia, SP, NYY	60	66	70	41	105	72	75	69.9
64. (66) Mat Latos, SP, Cin	41	81	73	50	109	65	73	70.3
65. (77) Pablo Sandoval, 3B, SF	48	80	52	59	94	83	77	70.4
66. (100) Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY	52	52	55	103	48	117	89	73.7
67. (58) Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cle	109	49	83	58	67	93	63	74.6
68. (165) Chris Davis, OF/1B, Bal	92	73	75	126	32	31	94	74.7
69. (46) Gio Gonzalez, SP, Wsh	72	102	79	51	92	68	61	75.0
70. (48) Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Wsh	100	93	87	81	51	50	65	75.3
71. (145) Chase Utley, 2B, Phi	89	64	78	110	68	73	46	75.4
71. (138) Carl Crawford, OF, LAD	56	68	81	77	107	60	79	75.4
73. (106) Mark Trumbo, OF/1B, LAA	49	74	97	74	102	61	88	77.9
74. (122) Hunter Pence, OF, SF	91	95	89	82	53	58	78	78.0
75. (45) Yadier Molina, C, StL	103	62	63	35	106	107	72	78.3
76. (86) Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atl	74	86	57	108	57	92	87	80.1
77. (68) Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Mil	146	87	67	113	16	74	64	81.0
77. (62) Joe Mauer, C/1B, Min	108	65	62	49	132	77	74	81.0
79. (69) Zack Greinke, SP, LAD	65	55	72	92	87	112	92	82.1
80. (128) David Ortiz, DH, Bos	101	70	85	130	37	63	93	82.7
81. (65) Desmond Jennings, OF, TB	79	78	77	63	122	80	83	83.1
82. (174) Manny Machado, 3B, Bal	104	39	96	131	83	90	45	84.0
83. (19) Josh Hamilton, OF, LAA	93	58	36	48	220	106	32	84.7
84. (27) Jason Heyward, OF, Atl	78	44	64	121	98	128	62	85.0
85. (117) Anibal Sanchez, SP, Det	66	85	94	86	114	75	81	85.9
86. (82) Jose Altuve, 2B, Hou	84	72	74	72	84	85	142	87.6
87. (276) Jean Segura, SS, Mil	82	69	86	112	100	94	82	89.3
88. (15) Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Mia	96	59	82	75	128	101	85	89.4
89. (113) Jon Lester, SP, Bos	61	82	102	80	113	124	76	91.1
90. (112) Hiroki Kuroda, SP, NYY	85	96	105	83	95	89	109	94.6
91. (64) Johnny Cueto, SP, Cin	81	79	104	116	97	82	106	95.0
92. (89) Elvis Andrus, SS, Tex	87	110	110	73	78	109	101	95.4
93. (87) Martin Prado, OF/3B/2B, Ari	121	106	84	88	93	76	107	96.4
94. (132) Nelson Cruz, OF, Tex	107	103	108	102	41	95	120	96.6
94. (76) Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Phi	83	138	98	71	117	78	91	96.6
96. (173) Dexter Fowler, OF, Col	62	97	117	135	90	105	80	98.0
97. (143) Sergio Romo, RP, SF	86	154	66	115	91	91	96	99.9
98. (141) Torii Hunter, OF, Det	124	112	93	123	65	69	117	100.4
99. (95) Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Cle	99	99	95	85	119	110	103	101.4
100. (115) Doug Fister, SP, Det	88	92	103	90	134	96	108	101.6
101. (44) B.J. Upton, OF, Atl	97	83	88	100	145	133	67	101.9
102. (133) Mike Napoli, C/1B, Bos	159	107	80	97	86	79	116	103.4
102. (116) Jake Peavy, SP, CWS	114	100	113	96	96	71	134	103.4
104. (268) Starling Marte, OF, Pit	122	61	114	211	69	104	56	105.3
105. (127) Carlos Beltran, OF, StL	113	111	106	105	104	87	115	105.9
106. (74) Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phi	116	108	92	67	147	116	97	106.1
107. (97) Mariano Rivera, RP, NYY	70	132	101	76	130	114	122	106.4
108. (38) Jered Weaver, SP, LAA	117	101	107	173	81	88	84	107.3
109. (111) Shane Victorino, OF, Bos	136	98	130	111	75	81	123	107.7
110. (142) Jeff Samardzija, SP, ChC	76	123	112	133	111	108	118	111.6
111. (90) Rafael Soriano, RP, Wsh	75	127	90	78	164	136	112	111.7
112. (152) Lance Lynn, SP, StL	106	115	116	129	121	113	99	114.1
113. (239) Clay Buchholz, SP, Bos	95	94	124	184	115	99	102	116.1
114. (110) Angel Pagan, OF, SF	118	175	120	87	103	100	114	116.7
114. (125) Jim Johnson, RP, Bal	90	151	99	91	161	115	110	116.7
116. (139) Alcides Escobar, SS, KC	111	121	121	117	72	118	158	116.9
117. (105) Joe Nathan, RP, Tex	105	148	118	95	148	111	113	119.7
118. (85) Yovani Gallardo, SP, Mil	133	125	100	89	162	131	100	120.0
119. (53) Matt Wieters, C, Bal	163	109	91	64	146	182	86	120.1
120. (108) Josh Willingham, OF, Min	132	144	123	114	70	129	135	121.0
121. (124) Alejandro De Aza, OF, CWS	126	141	134	94	101	137	124	122.4
122. (126) Brett Gardner, OF, NYY	131	167	135	106	46	147	140	124.6
123. (56) R.A. Dickey, SP, Tor	125	140	119	79	154	153	104	124.9
124. (93) Melky Cabrera, OF, Tor	156	128	127	98	56	192	125	126.0
125. (80) Kris Medlen, RP/SP, Atl	147	188	111	104	152	86	105	127.6
126. (196) A.J. Burnett, SP, Pit	110	113	144	159	123	102	144	127.9
127. (218) Michael Cuddyer, OF/1B, Col	148	143	125	187	45	103	152	129.0
128. (136) Ryan Howard, 1B, Phi	135	135	138	125	44	164	182	131.9
128. (179) Wilin Rosario, C, Col	143	119	109	148	139	122	143	131.9
130. (129) Howard Kendrick, 2B, LAA	145	130	129	109	129	155	128	132.1
131. (54) Brett Lawrie, 3B, Tor	151	122	122	119	143	189	98	134.9
131. (176) Coco Crisp, OF, Oak	186	173	131	142	60	98	154	134.9
131. (175) Mike Minor, SP, Atl	102	129	143	137	155	119	159	134.9
134. (92) Fernando Rodney, RP, TB	128	169	126	118	125	146	133	135.0
135. (243) Hisashi Iwakuma, SP/RP, Sea	115	156	148	193	82	97	156	135.3
136. (261) Shelby Miller, SP/RP, StL	94	88	133	210	192	138	95	135.7
137. (135) Paul Konerko, 1B, CWS	184	136	115	145	77	161	177	142.1
138. (233) Josh Rutledge, SS/2B, Col	154	139	140	206	39	149	171	142.6
139. (162) Kyle Seager, 3B, Sea	144	116	141	134	171	185	127	145.4
140. (140) Addison Reed, RP, CWS	80	165	136	127	184	184	146	146.0
141. (189) Jason Grilli, RP, Pit	98	168	158	154	158	127	160	146.1
142. (71) Aaron Hill, 2B, Ari	211	124	149	99	131	165	167	149.4
143. (99) Ian Kennedy, SP, Ari	137	157	137	124	151	216	129	150.1
144. (207) Norichika Aoki, OF, Mil	141	174	167	164	110	130	169	150.7
145. (171) Todd Frazier, 3B/1B, Cin	158	131	132	138	231	150	119	151.3
146. (158) Homer Bailey, SP, Cin	119	114	187	157	120	191	172	151.4
147. (180) Derek Holland, SP, Tex	130	147	163	143	169	123	200	153.6
148. (213) Casey Janssen, RP, Tor	139	182	146	190	137	120	162	153.7
149. (230) Alex Cobb, SP, TB	120	120	152	196	214	156	121	154.1
150. (216) Tom Wilhelmsen, RP, Sea	112	178	142	198	141	183	132	155.1
151. (170) Nick Swisher, OF/1B, Cle	162	153	156	149	112	141	215	155.4
152. (245) Lorenzo Cain, OF, KC	138	134	161	219	159	157	141	158.4
153. (210) Tommy Milone, SP, Oak	160	176	171	169	149	121	191	162.4
154. (28) Jose Reyes, SS, Tor	164	105	166	101	235	NR	111	163.1
155. (236) Mark Reynolds, 1B, Cle	157	104	162	189	NR	125	153	164.3
156. (96) Brandon Morrow, SP, Tor	123	126	160	139	243	231	130	164.6
157. (164) Tim Hudson, SP, Atl	195	158	170	146	199	145	155	166.9
158. (144) Greg Holland, RP, KC	153	171	159	147	198	168	183	168.4
159. (194) Lance Berkman, 1B, Tex	NR	117	165	175	174	140	149	168.6
160. (119) Erick Aybar, SS, LAA	188	179	128	177	194	139	176	168.7
161. (226) Everth Cabrera, SS, SD	129	118	151	182	NR	222	126	169.7
162. (195) Corey Hart, 1B/OF, Mil	237	137	185	197	47	199	189	170.1
163. (225) Ryan Dempster, SP, Bos	155	133	176	205	227	133	170	171.3
164. (221) Nick Markakis, OF, Bal	201	194	150	185	127	166	179	171.7
165. (163) Rafael Betancourt, RP, Col	161	189	172	153	207	159	163	172.0
166. (91) Ike Davis, 1B, NYM	227	221	153	136	157	143	174	173.0
167. (104) Hanley Ramirez, 3B/SS, LAD	127	91	169	171	NR	NR	136	173.4
168. (147) Rickie Weeks, 2B, Mil	178	201	184	152	136	163	204	174.0
169. (297) Michael Saunders, OF, Sea	221	184	198	NR	64	158	139	174.9
170. (190) Glen Perkins, RP, Min	142	185	154	188	202	169	186	175.1
170. (203) Andrelton Simmons, SS, Atl	180	149	192	186	156	176	187	175.1
170. (114) Tim Lincecum, SP, SF	206	159	179	107	195	249	131	175.1
173. (199) Alfonso Soriano, OF, ChC	194	181	157	165	187	154	190	175.4
174. (120) Neil Walker, 2B, Pit	200	145	202	163	166	178	175	175.6
175. (157) Michael Morse, OF, Sea	140	191	147	NR	211	135	150	176.3
176. (101) Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC	NR	163	145	120	183	232	137	177.1
177. (184) Kendrys Morales, 1B, Sea	171	231	175	166	140	162	201	178.0
178. (200) Trevor Cahill, SP, Ari	172	218	193	180	189	142	166	180.0
179. (161) Jeremy Hellickson, SP, TB	179	209	164	167	150	197	208	182.0
180. (153) Huston Street, RP, SD	182	193	194	172	170	170	196	182.4
181. (204) Jaime Garcia, SP, StL	150	210	191	168	204	190	168	183.0
182. (159) J.J. Hardy, SS, Bal	202	207	212	144	126	210	181	183.1
183. (148) Adam LaRoche, 1B, Wsh	250	166	168	174	176	173	184	184.4
184. (151) Andre Ethier, OF, LAD	223	196	174	151	153	177	218	184.6
185. (83) Victor Martinez, C, Det	NR	213	139	128	133	NR	165	185.4
186. (150) C.J. Wilson, SP, LAA	189	161	155	140	188	NR	206	185.6
187. (263) Paul Maholm, SP, Atl	152	162	197	227	191	126	NR	187.9
188. (186) Chris Perez, RP, Cle	177	197	183	191	196	202	173	188.4
189. (348) Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, LAD	134	155	190	NR	249	204	145	191.0
190. (169) Grant Balfour, RP, Oak	199	208	211	181	144	181	225	192.7
191. (130) Dan Haren, SP, Wsh	193	190	204	132	NR	214	180	196.1
192. (472) Nate McLouth, OF, Bal	248	152	223	250	177	186	138	196.3
193. (188) Alexi Ogando, SP/RP, Tex	167	237	215	179	215	132	233	196.9
194. (250) Justin Ruggiano, OF, Mia	183	150	189	209	NR	188	211	198.6
195. (167) Dan Uggla, 2B, Atl	191	239	208	160	213	218	164	199.0
196. (234) Brandon Moss, 1B/OF, Oak	149	164	214	214	NR	174	219	199.1
197. (631) Edward Mujica, RP, StL	192	205	217	NR	165	144	213	199.4
198. (134) Ben Revere, OF, Phi	203	225	195	141	NR	230	151	200.7
199. (274) Juan Pierre, OF, Mia	197	192	209	236	186	148	238	200.9
200. (198) Kenley Jansen, RP, LAD	216	217	238	194	108	198	241	201.7
201. (191) Mark Teixeira, 1B, NYY	214	170	186	199	175	NR	209	201.9
202. (219) Justin Morneau, 1B, Min	176	242	173	201	208	207	210	202.4
203. (264) Bobby Parnell, RP, NYM	185	245	222	228	167	151	242	205.7
204. (193) Jayson Werth, OF, Wsh	NR	230	188	203	185	200	178	206.3
205. (146) Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC	246	183	178	155	NR	239	192	207.6
205. (183) Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Bos	NR	NR	199	176	138	160	NR	207.6
207. (566) Travis Wood, SP, ChC	NR	180	196	NR	142	NR	157	207.9
208. (172) Miguel Montero, C, Ari	198	177	177	204	NR	221	222	208.4
209. (155) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pit	190	223	182	161	NR	241	207	209.1
209. (375) Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oak	205	187	213	NR	178	NR	161	209.1
211. (187) Ichiro Suzuki, OF, NYY	NR	NR	201	178	135	227	216	211.0
212. (271) Yonder Alonso, 1B, SD	168	NR	235	234	221	152	217	212.4
213. (185) Alexei Ramirez, SS, CWS	NR	NR	216	170	163	194	226	212.7
214. (281) M. Carpenter, 1B/3B/2B/OF, StL	209	160	220	239	219	220	223	212.9
215. (205) Wade Miley, SP, Ari	181	238	221	192	NR	201	199	213.1
216. (118) Jonathon Niese, SP, NYM	231	229	181	162	234	NR	203	214.3
217. (223) Garrett Jones, 1B/OF, Pit	NR	211	227	200	210	171	224	214.7
218. (192) Kevin Youkilis, 3B/1B, NYY	170	235	NR	224	200	247	188	217.7
219. (197) Salvador Perez, C, KC	228	206	180	212	NR	206	237	218.4
220. (496) Patrick Corbin, SP, Ari	165	199	240	NR	NR	NR	147	218.7
221. (247) Omar Infante, 2B, Det	NR	NR	236	222	168	167	235	221.1
222. (277) Chris Carter, 1B/OF, Hou	175	195	229	NR	NR	203	231	221.9
223. (296) Mitch Moreland, 1B, Tex	NR	172	210	NR	181	212	NR	222.1
224. (154) Jason Kubel, OF, Ari	208	NR	206	195	232	NR	195	222.3
225. (131) Danny Espinosa, 2B/SS, Wsh	230	NR	250	150	NR	NR	148	222.6
226. (137) Brett Anderson, SP, Oak	218	NR	203	183	239	NR	202	223.6
227. (253) Jed Lowrie, SS, Oak	174	203	225	215	NR	233	NR	224.3
228. (424) Ervin Santana, SP, KC	187	186	243	NR	NR	175	NR	224.4
229. (628) Tony Cingrani, SP/RP, Cin	196	200	200	NR	NR	211	245	224.6
230. (255) Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B, SD	235	198	234	241	224	NR	185	225.3
231. (109) Josh Johnson, SP, Tor	244	227	233	217	217	246	194	225.4
231. (235) Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Pit	232	233	NR	226	172	195	NR	225.4
233. (166) David Freese, 3B, StL	NR	214	207	231	237	213	221	226.1
234. (178) Marco Scutaro, 2B/SS, SF	NR	NR	NR	156	229	193	227	226.4
235. (876) Jim Henderson, RP, Mil	169	204	241	NR	NR	NR	193	226.7
236. (215) Jonathan Lucroy, C, Mil	240	226	205	225	228	209	NR	227.6
237. (273) Jon Jay, OF, StL	NR	NR	NR	NR	124	180	NR	229.1
238. (490) Vernon Wells, OF, NYY	NR	146	245	NR	NR	238	198	229.6
239. (260) Kyle Lohse, SP, Mil	204	222	NR	232	222	208	NR	229.7
240. (208) Ryan Madson, RP, LAA	229	246	NR	216	201	245	214	230.1
241. (266) Brian McCann, C, Atl	215	202	219	247	247	NR	229	231.3
242. (209) Matt Garza, SP, ChC	219	NR	NR	243	241	196	205	232.0
243. (319) Andy Dirks, OF, Det	226	NR	NR	242	118	NR	NR	232.3
244. (224) Ernesto Frieri, RP, LAA	212	240	NR	NR	197	219	239	232.4
245. (220) Steve Cishek, RP, Mia	NR	244	239	223	193	226	250	233.6
246. (211) Dayan Viciedo, OF, CWS	NR	234	224	237	205	242	234	233.7
247. (212) Michael Young, 1B/3B, Phi	NR	215	218	202	226	NR	NR	234.4
248. (444) Kyle Kendrick, SP/RP, Phi	NR	224	NR	NR	212	172	NR	235.4
249. (305) Dee Gordon, SS, LAD	207	142	NR	NR	NR	NR	NR	235.6
250. (231) Daniel Murphy, 2B, NYM	NR	NR	NR	NR	173	179	NR	236.0

MLB Fantasy News 2013

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