MLB Fantasy News 2013

[HacheMan]

Baseball Challenge: Week 6 preview

By Mike Sheets
Special to ESPN.com

After missing the first few weeks of the season with a thumb injury, the Los Angeles Dodgers' Hanley Ramirez returned to action Monday. This is a notable development in nearly all types of fantasy baseball formats, but it's particularly intriguing in the Baseball Challenge. While players returning from injury carry risk of re-injury and sometimes take some time to shake off the rust, they also present a buying opportunity. And more often than not, the longer the player is sidelined, the more significant the opportunity when he returns.
When healthy, Ramirez is undoubtedly one of the best sources of offense at a weak shortstop position. However, because he has been on the disabled list, his market price has remained stagnant. His 5.0 market price ranks sixth at the position and is significantly less than Troy Tulowitzki's 6.1 price tag. Had Ramirez not missed any time, the two players' prices would likely be much, much closer. All things being equal, I'd still rather own Tulo of the two. But when you consider the huge price difference, things get a little cloudier.
You may or may not be ready to add Hanley, but let this serve as a reminder that you should keep track of star players on the disabled list (Jason Heyward, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hill, to name a few). When they return to the field, they'll likely be bargains at their respective positions.
[h=3]Week 6: May 6-May 12[/h]C: Wilin Rosario, Colorado Rockies, 4.9 market price (+0.3): Rosario is one of the biggest risers among catchers this week, though he still falls outside the top five in market price. For a guy who ranks third at the position in points, thanks to a .329-7-19 line in 23 games, that's pretty good. It's also worth noting that Rosario is hitting .417 with five of his seven homers away from Coors Field this year, so he's not simply taking advantage of his home ballpark.
1B: Prince Fielder, Detroit Tigers, 5.5 market price (-0.2): Fielder occupied this space in Week 5, and he's here again in Week 6. Why? For the second straight week, the slugger has seen his price drop by 0.2. This is noteworthy because he's a top-three BBC first baseman and has homered in two of his past four games. At 5.5, he remains somewhat pricey, but that's still a discount worth considering.
2B: Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds, 5.6 market price (-0.2): Phillips is similar to Fielder in that his price took a dip this week despite the fact that his 105 points this year rank second among second basemen. (Robinson Cano -- surprise, surprise! -- is No. 1.) The Reds second baseman may not carry super high upside, but he's a stable presence if you don't have the cap room to pony up for Cano. The fact he's cheaper than he was last week may be appealing.
3B: Chase Headley, San Diego Padres, 5.0 market price (+0.1): Headley is off to a fine start this year, sporting a .278/.365/.519 slash line in his first 14 games. What makes him so interesting, though, is that, because he missed the first couple of weeks of the season due to injury, his market price hasn't had a chance to escalate much. His 5.0 price tag, which ranks eighth at the hot corner, looks like a bargain. Remember, this is a guy who finished 2012 as the No. 2 third baseman in the Challenge.
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers, 5.0 market price (+0.0): Sure, it's only three games, but since returning from the DL Ramirez has five hits in nine at-bats, including three that went for extra bases. His price will be going up in the coming weeks, so if you're going to add him, you might as well do it now.
LF: Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland Athletics, 4.8 market price (-0.1): Cespedes also recently returned from the DL and as a result ranks just 10th among left fielders in market value. While he's batting just .233 on the year, he's hitting .300 with three extra-base hits, including a home run, and seven RBIs since returning to action Sunday. With a sticker price of 4.8, it's easy to see the value here.
CF: Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers, 4.8 market price (+0.0): Gomez has been blistering hot of late. Over the past two weeks, he's been the No. 1 center fielder in the Challenge, racking up 70 points while hitting .454 with four bombs and six steals. The Brewers outfielder is prone to streakiness, so he's not a great long-term investment, but he could be a valuable short-term option with the way he's swinging the bat.
RF: Josh Hamilton, Los Angeles Angels, 4.6 market price (+0.0): I wanted to comment on Hamilton because, frankly, I'm shocked that he's the most widely owned right fielder in the Challenge. Through 28 games, he's batting just .216/.260/.302 and ranks 15th in points at the position. While I can understand some owners wanting to buy low considering his salary is pretty cheap for the upside he offers, the guy is dead weight right now. Feel free to add him later if he shows signs of life, but do yourself a favor and replace him with someone contributing now.
DH: David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox, 4.9 market price (+0.4): Did you expect someone else? If so, you haven't been paying attention. Since coming off the DL, Big Papi is batting .487 with three home runs, 15 RBIs and nine runs. And all of that came in just 10 games. Nearly all of the big poppers at DH come in around the same price, so there's little reason not to go with Ortiz right now.
Pitching Staff: Atlanta Braves, 7.8 market price (-0.4): The Braves pitching staff saw a steep price drop this week, and I'm using it as an opportunity to buy. The team sports a 3.10 ERA, which is the best mark in baseball, and it ranks sixth in the Challenge in points. A discount like this doesn't come around often.
[h=3]Scouting Schedules[/h]ESPN's Park Factors over the last three seasons are used to determine which teams have hitter- or pitcher-friendly schedules for the coming week. For this column's purposes, a top-10 ranked ballpark in terms of home runs is considered hitter-friendly, while a bottom-10 park is pitcher-friendly. A team must have two series at hitter-friendly venues or two at pitcher-friendly parks to make the cut. Keep in mind, these numbers don't account for the fences being moved in at Petco Park and Safeco Field.
Hitter-friendly schedules: Cincinnati Reds, Texas Rangers, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Angels, Houston Astros
Pitcher-friendly schedules: San Francisco Giants, Pittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners, Oakland A's, New York Mets
Seven-day work weeks: Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Oakland A's, Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Indians
Five-day work weeks: Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Rookies poised for big K stats[/h][h=3]Keep close eye on fast-starting Miller, Ryu, Fernandez, Cingrani[/h]
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

What a rich class of rookie flamethrowers we're witnessing.

Consider: In each of the past two seasons, three rookie pitchers struck out 150 or more hitters. This year, four rookies are on pace to strike out at least that many. To put that into historical perspective, consider that in only two seasons since 1901 did four or more rookies whiff at least 150 hitters (6, in 1967; and 4, in 1970; that per Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index tool).
Yes, what Hyun-Jin Ryu, Shelby Miller, Tony Cingrani and Jose Fernandez have done thus far is historic; there is also compelling evidence that all four might remain on track to reach that plateau. But as is the case with any rookie, adjustment periods, workloads and fatigue are factors that threaten to come into play.
What, then, precisely are their odds of meeting their current full-season paces? Better yet: How will they fare in the other primary Rotisserie categories?
Let's take a snapshot of each, going in order of Player Rater standing.
[h=3]Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals[/h]

Miller
Age: 22; MLB career starts: 7; Player Rater SP ranking: 16th
Stuff: He has a 93.0 mph (2013 average to date) fastball and hard curveball, both of which have been solid thus far. Twenty-nine of his 38 strikeouts have come on the fastball, the other nine on his curve, the latter widely regarded his punch-out pitch. Watch Miller's curveball sometime; you'll see why it's his ticket to a 150-strikeout rookie season without severe danger of a major slump.
Adjustment period? If Miller is due one, it'll be because he lacks a viable third pitch. Keith Law noted in his preseason top 100 prospects -- he ranked Miller 21st -- that Miller's changeup "continues to improve and will flash above-average." Amazingly, Miller has thrown only eight changeups all year, all of them to lefties. The season-opening edition of "60 Feet 6 Inches" illustrated that pitchers at Miller's young career stage tend to be the ones who hit such a phase; I think he might well be due one soon. But let's be clear: Such a stage might last only 1-2 months and constitute a barely-sub-four ERA, which wouldn't cost him his rotation spot or make him a cut in any fantasy league larger than 12-team mixed. Only sell high if you're getting silly value, like that of a top-30 starter.
Workload: Miller is the member of this quartet in the best standing in this department, thanks to workloads of 104 1/3, 139 2/3 and 150 1/3 innings pitched the past three seasons working forward. Even if the Cardinals cap his innings, they probably wouldn't do so beneath 180 frames. In addition, keep in mind that he finished 2012 strong in Triple-A, with a 2.88 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 10.00 K-per-walk ratio in his final 10 starts, answering many of the questions about his prospect status that were raised during his sluggish first half.
Projection going forward: 24 GS, 3.85 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 135 K's.
[h=3]Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers[/h]

Ryu

Age: 26; MLB career starts: 7; Player Rater SP ranking: 36th
Stuff: Many scouting reports during the winter, at the time the Dodgers signed Ryu to a six-year, $36 million contract after paying a $25.7 million posting fee, had the left-hander's stuff ranging as high as that of a No. 3 or 4 starter to as low as that of a situational reliever. Ryu's changeup is the key to his sticking in the rotation: It's his best pitch, he uses it often against righties (30 percent usage) and opponents overall have batted .222 against it. Meanwhile, his delivery is deceptive enough to completely fluster lefties -- hence the "reliever" chatter -- as they're batting just .176/.243/.294 against him.
Adjustment period? Hitters might begin to catch up with Ryu the more times they see him; the San Francisco Giants, who on Sunday became the first team to face him for the second time during the regular season, enjoyed more success against him (4 runs, 8 hits, only 2 K's) in meeting No. 2. Two years ago, "60 Feet 6 Inches" examined pitchers' prospects for success during their proverbial "second trip around the league," and the telling tale was that strikeout artists tended to fare better than finesse types during that phase. Ryu's current 251-K pace might paint such a strikeout-artist picture, but if he's not a traditional flamethrower -- his average fastball velocity thus far is 90.0 mph -- is he subject to that? I wonder.
Workload: You might think Ryu is the safest of the quartet, thanks to three seasons of 180-plus innings pitched in his four years in the Korean Professional Baseball league. That's not necessarily true because, as with the Nippon Professional Baseball league (Japan), the Korean schedule is shorter -- 133 games per season. Ryu is therefore subject to the same adjustment to the U.S. game as a Japanese import, and one must wonder whether the 162-game schedule might cause a downturn in second-half stats.
Projection going forward: 24 GS, 3.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 142 K's.
[h=3]Tony Cingrani, Cincinnati Reds[/h]

Cingrani

Age: 23; MLB career starts: 4; Player Rater SP ranking: 42nd
Stuff: He's a fascinating case. Only two pitchers (three or more starts) have thrown their fastball more often than Cingrani this season (82.3 percent usage), but it's the deception created by his delivery that has made the pitch so effective. Cingrani's fastball has averaged 92.2 mph, has limited opponents to the ninth-lowest batting average (.179) and has notched 30 of his 33 strikeouts. Incidentally, he's only the second pitcher since 1900 to manage eight or more strikeouts in each of his first three major league starts.
The problem, however, is that Cingrani's secondary pitches lack polish. He has thrown his curveball 12 percent of the time, his changeup 5 percent and his slider less than 1 percent, and his 33 percent rate of throwing those pitches in the strike zone is the third-worst rate in the game. Cingrani is hoping that hitters fish for pitches out of the zone; no one has missed on eight swings at his "soft" stuff in the strike zone, and on 12 swings at "soft" stuff out of the zone, eight times hitters missed and three times they fouled it off, while the 12th was a harmless ground out.
Adjustment period? This goes hand-in-hand with the above; I believe that Cingrani is going to have to develop, and rely upon, his secondary pitches more to remain consistently successful. He has pitched well enough to warrant remaining in the Reds' rotation beyond Johnny Cueto's return from the disabled list -- he should bump Mike Leake after that point -- but I'm most concerned that Cingrani's midsummer phase will be the most distressing to his fantasy owners of this quartet. Deceptive hurlers can buck adjustment periods -- see Dontrelle Willis' 2003 -- but the risk makes him as strong a sell-high candidate as any 2013 rookie.
Workload: Cingrani threw 151 innings between high Class A (56 2/3), Triple-A (89 1/3) and Cincinnati (5) last season, after throwing 108 1/3 between Rice University (57) and rookie ball (51 1/3) in 2011, so an innings cap might not be a major factor. That said, any midsummer struggles could feed the Reds' thinking in this area. Don't be surprised if he doesn't top 170 frames.
Projection going forward: 20 GS, 4.15 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 118 K's.
[h=3]Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins[/h]

Fernandez

Age: 20; MLB career starts: 6; Player Rater SP ranking: 58th
Stuff: His is gooooooood … which should've been clear when he leapfrogged both Double- and Triple-A in order to make the Marlins' Opening Day roster at only 20 years old. Fernandez was the highest-ranked of the bunch in Keith Law's preseason top 100 prospects, placing 16th, after he managed a 1.75 ERA and 158 strikeouts in 134 innings in Class A ball last season.
A quick look at his pitch selection says Fernandez has what it takes to stick: His fastball has averaged 94.5 mph, with 54 percent of them clocked at 95 mph or higher, and opponents have batted .234 against it with 16 of his 32 K's. His curveball -- advertised as his strikeout pitch -- has limited foes to a .129 batting average with 11 K's and a 27 percent miss rate on swings. And his changeup, perhaps the most surprising advance, has limited left-handed hitters to a .083 batting average with a 42 percent miss rate on swings. It's no surprise, therefore, that Fernandez lacks a steep platoon split; lefties are batting .151/.262/.205 against him.
Adjustment period: What if he has already endured it? Fernandez's career starts Nos. 3-5 resulted in a combined 11 earned runs and 15 hits allowed in 13 innings, and he's coming off the best outing by any rookie (using Game Score) this season, his seven-shutout-inning, nine-strikeout masterpiece against the Philadelphia Phillies this past Saturday. Even if he has more adjustments to make, Fernandez's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching score) is 3.05, 20th-best in the league, and his K-to-walk ratio 2.67, 52nd-best (out of 114 pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched). I'd classify Fernandez as potentially the most stable of the quartet on a start-by-start basis; he might possess the smallest deviation in ERA/WHIP between months come season's end.
Workload: The Marlins have actually done a good job pacing Fernandez, who is on pace for 152 innings, or only 18 more than he threw in all of 2012 in the minors. They've done it by capping his pitch counts at 85 in each of his six starts, though couple his resulting shorter outings with the weak Marlins offense backing him and he's the weakest choice of the bunch by far in terms of wins, and perhaps quality starts as well. Fernandez might not need an innings cap at his current pace, so don't race to trade him assuming he'll bump up against one.
Projection going forward: 23 GS, 3.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 126 K's. (Keep in mind that his average innings-per-start should be well beneath the others'.)
You might also notice another rookie who cracked this week's rankings: Top New York Mets prospect Zack Wheeler, who tossed six shutout innings of three-hit baseball for Triple-A Las Vegas on Sunday.
Wheeler actually topped Fernandez, Miller and Cingrani in Keith Law's preseason top 100 prospects, and granted the chance to make 20 starts at the big-league level from this point forward, might have as good a chance at leading this bunch -- except for perhaps Ryu -- in strikeouts.
Let's take a closer look:
[h=3]Zack Wheeler, New York Mets[/h]

Wheeler

Stuff: He's somewhat like Miller and Fernandez in that Wheeler possesses a mid-90s fastball and a solid curveball that he can use to generate strikeouts. Thus far in his professional career, he has averaged 9.71 K's per nine innings, that number 9.15 in his 32 starts combined between Double- and Triple-A.
But unlike some of those others, Wheeler possesses a steeper platoon split, lefties batting .253/.363/.381 against him, compared to .209/.279/.296 for righties. As Law noted in the preseason, Wheeler sports "a straight change that is probably too hard to be truly effective," though at least he seems to have improved against left-handers so far this year: They're hitting .224/.329/.373 against him.
Adjustment period: Wheeler's so-so change might set him up for some early-career struggles; He's a pitcher whose career starts Nos. 6-20 might be somewhat forgettable. That said, he'll have a spacious ballpark in which to work, and as his career has yet to start, he'll at least possess the potential to give you up to 10 starts of use in his early weeks in the bigs.
Workload: Wheeler tossed 149 innings between Double- and Triple-A last season, after 115 frames between the Mets and San Francisco Giants' high Class A affiliates in 2011, and thus far he has 36 innings for Las Vegas in 2013. The Mets might cap him at around 170 frames; his fantasy owners should hope that, in that event, most of his remaining 134 innings come in the majors.
Projections going forward: 17 GS, 3.95 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 88 K's.
[h=3]Relief Efforts[/h]Sticking with this week's rookie theme, don't overlook the St. Louis Cardinals' promotion in the past week of one of their top pitching prospects, Carlos Martinez. Oddly, while 54 of Martinez's 55 career appearances in the minors were starts, the Cardinals immediately installed him in their struggling bullpen.
[h=3]Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals[/h]Stuff: Martinez's fastball is arguably quicker than anyone profiled this week; he has averaged 97.3 mph with his 21 big-league fastballs thus far, not a single one of them clocked beneath 94 mph. Between it and his sinker, he generates a healthy number of ground balls, as his ground ball rate in 2012 was 54.1 percent, and in the minors this year it was 51.4 percent. Martinez also has a curveball and a so-so changeup, though in short relief, he might rely mostly on his fastball.
Martinez's stuff profiles as future "closer" material, giving the Cardinals two arguably more talented youngsters behind red-hot closer Edward Mujica; primary setup man Trevor Rosenthal is the other. But even if Martinez is locked into the seventh inning for the long haul and Rosenthal the eighth, both setup men have enough ERA/WHIP/K's potential to help owners in NL-only leagues.
Adjustment period: Martinez might suffer through one, though in his defense he demonstrated significant improvement in his command in 2012, his walk rate dropping from 4.68 per nine innings in 2011 to 2.76 per nine last season. For now he's merely a speculative pickup in fantasy, so at least you wouldn't put yourself at nearly as much roster risk considering the price you'd pay.
Workload: It's not a concern if he's a reliever. Heck, many good starters have begun their careers as relievers -- Roy Oswalt and Johan Santana immediately come to mind -- and Martinez has little chance of topping the 104 1/3 frames he compiled in 2012 if he's throwing only an inning at a time.
Projections going forward: 45 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10 holds.
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[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For starter- or reliever-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>	Player, Team <CENTER></CENTER>	<CENTER>Pos Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER></CENTER>	<CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>	Player <CENTER></CENTER>	<CENTER>Pos Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk</CENTER>
1	Clayton Kershaw, LAD	SP1	1		76	Tony Cingrani, Cin	SP56	105
2	Felix Hernandez, Sea	SP2	2		77	Kyle Lohse, Mil	SP57	71
3	Justin Verlander, Det	SP3	3		78	Jose Fernandez, Mia	SP58	113
4	Yu Darvish, Tex	SP4	4		79	Tim Lincecum, SF	SP59	63
5	Adam Wainwright, StL	SP5	7		80	Tim Hudson, Atl	SP60	76
6	Cliff Lee, Phi	SP6	6		81	C.J. Wilson, LAA	SP61	88
7	Madison Bumgarner, SF	SP7	8		82	Bobby Parnell, NYM	RP21	86
8	Cole Hamels, Phi	SP8	11		83	Phil Hughes, NYY	SP62	108
9	Mat Latos, Cin	SP9	16		84	Jarrod Parker, Oak	SP63	64
10	Stephen Strasburg, Wsh	SP10	5		85	Edward Mujica, StL	RP22	106
11	Craig Kimbrel, Atl	RP1	10		86	Marco Estrada, Mil	SP64	72
12	Matt Moore, TB	SP11	13		87	Brett Anderson, Oak	SP65	70
13	Aroldis Chapman, Cin	RP2	12		88	Grant Balfour, Oak	RP23	94
14	CC Sabathia, NYY	SP12	14		89	Brandon League, LAD	RP24	83
15	Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh	SP13	18		90	Jason Hammel, Bal	SP66	96
16	Max Scherzer, Det	SP14	22		91	Kenley Jansen, LAD	RP25	85
17	Chris Sale, CWS	SP15	15		92	Justin Masterson, Cle	SP67	82
18	David Price, TB	SP16	9		93	Ernesto Frieri, LAA	RP26	89
19	Jon Lester, Bos	SP17	20		94	Dan Haren, Wsh	SP68	100
20	Anibal Sanchez, Det	SP18	26		95	Matt Garza, ChC	SP69	101
21	Matt Harvey, NYM	SP19	21		96	Jhoulys Chacin, Col	SP70	102
22	Gio Gonzalez, Wsh	SP20	17		97	Andrew Cashner, SD	SP71	110
23	Jeff Samardzija, ChC	SP21	23		98	Ross Detwiler, Wsh	SP72	90
24	Mariano Rivera, NYY	RP3	25		99	Josh Johnson, Tor	SP73	50
25	Matt Cain, SF	SP22	19		100	Wandy Rodriguez, Pit	SP74	84
26	James Shields, KC	SP23	27		101	Jose Valverde, Det	RP27	107
27	Rafael Soriano, Wsh	RP4	28		102	Andy Pettitte, NYY	SP75	91
28	Addison Reed, CWS	RP5	31		103	Wei-Yin Chen, Bal	SP76	95
29	Doug Fister, Det	SP24	33		104	Ryan Madson, LAA	RP28	103
30	Johnny Cueto, Cin	SP25	30		105	Edwin Jackson, ChC	SP77	98
31	Jonathan Papelbon, Phi	RP6	32		106	Ryan Vogelsong, SF	SP78	97
32	Hiroki Kuroda, NYY	SP26	36		107	Brandon Beachy, Atl	SP79	104
33	Jake Peavy, CWS	SP27	29		108	Bartolo Colon, Oak	SP80	109
34	Sergio Romo, SF	RP7	38		109	Chris Tillman, Bal	SP81	118
35	Joe Nathan, Tex	RP8	34		110	Bud Norris, Hou	SP82	115
36	R.A. Dickey, Tor	SP28	24		111	Jose Quintana, CWS	SP83	119
37	Jim Johnson, Bal	RP9	40		112	Koji Uehara, Bos	RP29	129
38	Clay Buchholz, Bos	SP29	45		113	Kyle Kendrick, Phi	SP84	140
39	Homer Bailey, Cin	SP30	39		114	Shaun Marcum, NYM	SP85	112
40	Alex Cobb, TB	SP31	44		115	Josh Beckett, LAD	SP86	99
41	Mike Minor, Atl	SP32	42		116	Jeremy Guthrie, KC	SP87	125
42	Lance Lynn, StL	SP33	49		117	Jason Vargas, LAA	SP88	124
43	Ian Kennedy, Ari	SP34	35		118	Kevin Gregg, ChC	RP30	145
44	Yovani Gallardo, Mil	SP35	43		119	Joel Hanrahan, Bos	RP31	117
45	Brandon Morrow, Tor	SP36	46		120	J.A. Happ, Tor	SP89	111
46	Paul Maholm, Atl	SP37	48		121	Steve Cishek, Mia	RP32	121
47	A.J. Burnett, Pit	SP38	51		122	James McDonald, Pit	SP90	114
48	Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea	RP10	52		123	Felix Doubront, Bos	SP91	122
49	Derek Holland, Tex	SP39	53		124	Andrew Bailey, Bos	RP33	93
50	Jason Grilli, Pit	RP11	57		125	A.J. Griffin, Oak	SP92	128
51	Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea	SP40	79		126	Dan Straily, Oak	SP93	NR
52	Kris Medlen, Atl	SP41	37		127	Brandon McCarthy, Ari	SP94	120
53	Jaime Garcia, StL	SP42	55		128	Drew Smyly, Det	RP34	132
54	Fernando Rodney, TB	RP12	47		129	Jose Veras, Hou	RP35	130
55	Glen Perkins, Min	RP13	59		130	Ryan Cook, Oak	RP36	123
56	Zack Greinke, LAD	SP43	66		131	Miguel Gonzalez, Bal	SP95	127
57	Shelby Miller, StL	SP44	73		132	Kyuji Fujikawa, ChC	RP37	116
58	Jered Weaver, LAA	SP45	58		133	Junichi Tazawa, Bos	RP38	137
59	Casey Janssen, Tor	RP14	68		134	Ricky Nolasco, Mia	SP96	139
60	Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD	SP46	81		135	Luke Gregerson, SD	RP39	138
61	Ryan Dempster, Bos	SP47	67		136	Trevor Rosenthal, StL	RP40	141
62	Rafael Betancourt, Col	RP15	56		137	Travis Wood, ChC	SP97	148
63	Jonathon Niese, NYM	SP48	41		138	Wade Davis, KC	SP98	133
64	J.J. Putz, Ari	RP16	54		139	David Hernandez, Ari	RP41	136
65	Alexi Ogando, Tex	SP49	60		140	Roy Halladay, Phi	SP99	74
66	Tommy Milone, Oak	SP50	65		141	Zack Wheeler, NYM	SP100	NR
67	Jeremy Hellickson, TB	SP51	61		142	David Robertson, NYY	RP42	147
68	Patrick Corbin, Ari	SP52	92		143	Sean Marshall, Cin	RP43	150
69	Jim Henderson, Mil	RP17	80		144	Carlos Villanueva, ChC	SP101	NR
70	Wade Miley, Ari	SP53	62		145	Jake Westbrook, StL	SP102	143
71	Greg Holland, KC	RP18	69		146	Joaquin Benoit, Det	RP44	134
72	Trevor Cahill, Ari	SP54	77		147	Jorge De La Rosa, Col	SP103	131
73	Ervin Santana, KC	SP55	87		148	David Phelps, NYY	SP104	146
74	Chris Perez, Cle	RP19	75		149	Lucas Harrell, Hou	SP105	149
75	Huston Street, SD	RP20	78		150	Scott Feldman, ChC	SP106	NR

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[HacheMan]

Hitters with hidden value

By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

Conventional player-ranking mechanisms are flawed.

This includes any of the various means of generating dollar values, even my own mechanism. They're all flawed. That's because these methods all assume a stagnant roster as if the player in question occupies an active roster spot all season. But often that's not the case; whether it's an injury, liberal transaction rules or just the streaming of players, active roster spots are transient. If you use a rating system that does not account for the fluid nature of roster spots to help manage your team, you are missing out on some hidden batting jewels that can really help pump up your counting stats while they are active.


Today we're going to describe a method to identify some of these gems, then look at several players who might be available in your standard mixed league. In addition, a handful of players who could be useful in deeper leagues will also be discussed.

Hitter expectation is a function of two elements: skill and playing time. A lesser-skilled player who is a regular for his team can be a better fantasy asset than a player with superior skills but, for whatever reason, does not play as much. But again, this assumes we're matching up these hitters over a 162-game span. On a per-game basis, the batter with grander skills is the better option. That's what this process is going to do: illuminate players with latent skills that are currently masked by a lack of playing time.

The means to do this is actually straightforward, at least in theory. If all we want to focus on is skills, then we take playing time out of the equation by assigning equal playing time to everyone and re-ranking all the hitters based solely on their production. The two rankings lists are then compared. Hitters with the largest gap in ranking between the actual stats and the list assigning equal playing time would be the hitters to target.

We'll hone in on players who are available in a vast majority of ESPN standard leagues, but whose skills are roster-worthy. In other words, these are hitters whose "real" ranking falls outside the top 150, but whose skills ranking propels them into the top 150. Keep in mind a standard ESPN league has 130 active hitters plus some reserves and players on the disabled list, so 150 is a practical boundary.

If you play in a league with daily transactions, these players are ideal to help you gain an edge. These days, major league teams announce their lineups well in advance of game time, and with the proliferation of social media, the information is readily available, so you shouldn't be left guessing or end up stuck with a goose egg for the day.

Chris Denorfia, OF, San Diego Padres: Denorfia is a right-handed hitter best used to face southpaws in a platoon, but since he is an above-average defender, he usually ends the season with more at-bats than the typical righty-hitting platoon player. He also picks up extra playing time when his teammates are slumping or injured, most notably the oft-injured Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin and usual platoon partner Will Venable. As you can see, there are plenty of paths for Denorfia to get more playing time than just facing lefties.

Denorfia went largely undrafted and is presently owned in only 3.5 percent of ESPN leagues. However, his skills rank around 140 among all hitters, and when you factor in the number of higher-ranked players that are hurt, his skills are worthy of at least a reserve spot. Then owners can activate him when he's scheduled to play. He has been batting leadoff or second in the lineup, which further increases his utility since he'll be assured of four and often five trips to the dish each game.

Denorfia has played in 29 games, which indicates he has been getting regular playing time and is thus worthy of a roster spot in leagues with weekly moves. His strength is above-average contact, sporting a respectable .283 average in his four seasons as a Padre, including a robust .300 so far this campaign. He's on pace for double-digit homers and steals, which isn't bad for a fourth or fifth fantasy outfielder with a solid average. If you're in the 96.5 percent of ESPN leagues in which Denorfia is available, he's worthy of a look.

[h=3]More mixed-league options[/h]Jordan Pacheco, 1B/3B, Colorado Rockies: Pacheco broke into the majors as a catcher, but he's weak defensively behind the plate. But he is athletic enough to play the corner-infield positions, which earns him plenty of at-bats as a utility player. Before the recent promotion of the Rockies' top prospect, Nolan Arenado, Pacheco was seeing a good amount of playing time at the hot corner. With Arenado established at third base, Pacheco is spelling Todd Helton at first base when a lefty is on the hill.

Pacheco is owned in only 1.3 percent of ESPN leagues, though his skills put him around No. 140 among all hitters. Like Denorfia, excellent contact is Pacheco's calling card; he has been a .300 hitter for much of his major and minor league career. He has little pop but can sneak in a handful of steals. Pacheco's fantasy utility comes in supporting your batting average so you can absorb a lower average from a player more apt to hit homers or steal bases. Pacheco's multi-position eligibility also comes in handy. Granted, he is starting only against lefties right now, but Helton is always an injury risk, so Pacheco likely will pick up additional at bats later in the season.

Jordany Valdespin, OF, New York Mets: The lefty-hitting Valdespin survived the recent purge in the Mets' outfield. Both Collin Cowgill and Kirk Nieuwenhuis were recently demoted, thinning the ranks and leaving Valdespin as one of the only candidates left who is capable of playing center field. Thus, he's in line to see regular playing against right-handed hitters and maybe more, depending on how long Marlon Byrd keeps his job.

Valdespin is the opposite of Pacheco in that he is capable of double-digit homers and steals with regular playing time but likely will bring your team's batting average down a bit. Still, when you rank him just on skill, he checks in at about 115. Valdespin is owned in just 0.2 percent of ESPN leagues, so here's your chance to get in on the ground floor. Chances are, not many have noticed the potential for additional playing time following the Mets' recent outfield shakeup. If you can afford a slight hit to your batting average, Valdespin should provide some quiet production for you.

Craig Gentry, OF, Texas Rangers: The transaction may have seemed innocuous at the time, but the Rangers waiving Julio Borbon served to cement Gentry's place on the Rangers roster, at least enough to warrant inclusion on this list. Gentry's excellent defense has assured him of playing time, and he's in line for even more if Leonys Martin continues to scuffle or the oft-injured Nelson Cruz is felled again. As is, Gentry is starting against all left-handers and the occasional right-hander.

Gentry is owned in just 0.2 percent of ESPN leagues despite a skill level that nudges him just inside the top 100 (at No. 98). Stealing bases is his forte, and Gentry has been successful on a healthy 82 percent of his steal attempts in his career. Despite limited power, Gentry has a knack for driving in runs, along with utilizing his speed to score a bunch of his own. If you are a fan of cheap speed, you could well be an impending fan of Gentry.

Scott Hairston, OF, Chicago Cubs: Admittedly, you likely need to play in a league with at least 12 teams to take the following couple of paragraphs seriously, but it's worth noting that Hairston has gone deep three times and has one steal. When his .132 average picks up, so will his production. He's currently starting only against southpaws, but if he were to warm up, the Cubs likely would use Hairston to spell David DeJesus on occasion, as he can handle center field defensively.

Though he's not displaying it thus far in 2013, as a full-timer, Hairston would rank about 108 among hitters in terms of skills, making him a back-end outfielder in deep leagues when he's playing regularly. Sure, not even brother Jerry would have his little brother on his fantasy team right now. But keep in mind that it was nary a year ago that Hairston smacked 20 bombs for the Mets, and he still has plenty of power. Once spring turns to summer and the balls begin to carry at Wrigley Field, picking up Hairston might not seem as ridiculous.

Rajai Davis, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Back in March, those of us who do playing-time prognostications weren't so sure Davis would get regular playing time. Ah, but these things have a way of working themselves out. Sure enough, Davis is on pace for his typical number of at-bats and likely will end the campaign with his usual 40-plus steals.

It's this speed potential that puts Davis inside the top 50 (at No. 46) in terms of skills. Keep in mind that Davis has averaged 43 steals in about 125 games over the past four seasons; just imagine if he played full-time. Davis is available in more than 96 percent of ESPN leagues.

Eric Young Jr., OF, Rockies: Young Jr. could be the Senior Circuit's version of Davis, as he usually finds an avenue to get playing time, and when he does, he runs (though he is off to a slow start this season in the stolen base department). After getting some playing time in the infield early in his career, Young has been playing exclusively in the outfield, where he can back up all three positions.

Young's stolen base prowess puts him at a surprising No. 24 via skills, but that'll happen when you can carry a .270 average along with a prorated total of well more than 60 steals per 162 games. Young is owned in less than one percent of all ESPN leagues and is probably not worth picking up even to spot start since it's hard to predict when he'll play. But if the situation ever arises in which he is playing regularly, you'll be able to make up ground in steals in leaps and bounds.


Logan Schafer, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: Admittedly, Schafer is a stretch since his pathway to playing time is less clear than the players discussed above, but since he checks in at No. 50 in terms of skills, I'll take a little liberty and include him here. Schafer serves as the Brew Crew's fourth outfielder, but sees only the occasional start. However, Carlos Gomez has not played more than 137 games in a season since 2008 and is on pace for 157 now, so he could be due for some time off later this season. Also, as good a story as Norichika Aoki was last year, he has struggled mightily since early in the season, so he might also sit for Schafer on occasion. If he were to play regularly, Schafer could threaten .300, which is where he derives most of his value, but is also capable of low double-digit homers with high-teens steals.

A.J. Pollock, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: Pollock has made some noise lately, busting out a surprising power stick, though his track record suggests he isn't likely to maintain his homer pace. Still, when the dust settles, Pollock falls just outside the top 150 with respect to skills. His four homers and five steals have caught the eye of a few ESPN gamers; his 7.0 ownership percentage is up three points over the past week.

[h=3]Deep-league potential[/h]
Trevor Crowe, OF, Houston Astros: Crowe was recently called up by the Astros as they revamped their outfield by designating Rick Ankiel and Fernando Martinez for assignment. With Justin Maxwell out with a broken hand, there could be some at-bats available for Crowe. His skills rank at 254 among all players (AL and NL), so it appears he could help an AL-only team with regular playing time. He has minimal power, but he can run, and since the Astros must manufacture runs, he could be afforded plenty of opportunities to show off his wheels.

Jeff Baker, OF, Rangers: Baker made the most of a couple of days subbing for the struggling David Murphy last week, homering in consecutive games. While he has a little pop, it's Baker's ability to sport a decent average that pokes him into the top 250 in terms of skills. When everyone is healthy, Baker will warm the pine, but with Nelson Cruz in the house and Murphy now playing more regularly following the departure of Josh Hamilton, it's very likely that Baker will be called upon to cover for the inevitable Cruz injury or Murphy off day. At those times, Baker can certainly provide some quality assistance in deeper leagues.

DJ LeMahieu, IF, Rockies: Much like Borbon and Gentry above, the recent trade of Chris Nelson to the Yankees could indirectly aid LeMahieu by removing one obstacle and in turn quickens his path back to the bigs. Already proficient at second and third base, LeMahieu has been playing shortstop at Triple-A Colorado Springs so he could back up all around the infield (much like Nelson did), not to mention take over at shortstop if Troy Tulowitzki were to be bitten by the injury bug again. A very good contact rate fuels LeMahieu's skill ranking of 218, which is actually close to being mixed-league worthy if he were to be called up to play full-time.

Tyler Moore, OF, Washington Nationals: Since the majority of the players discussed exhibit the bulk of their skills in speed and batting average, let's balance things by offering a big-time power source, albeit one with a rather large hole in his swing. Moore showed his prolific power last season, smacking 10 big homers in just 156 at-bats, which equates to about 40 for a full season. However, he is fanning at a 43 percent clip this season. His playing time has been sporadic, which could be at least partially the reason for his contact woes, or his contact woes could be what's limiting his playing time. Either way, if a scenario develops in which Moore is thrust into more action, perhaps he cuts down on the whiffs and demonstrates why his skills are at the cusp of the top 200 (at No. 201).

 

[HacheMan]

Bits: Is it time to give up on B.J. Upton?

Eric Karabell

While many eyes in Monday's Atlanta Braves win over the Cincinnati Reds were on rookie catcher Evan Gattis making his debut in left field, the guy to his left handling center field continued to struggle and anger fantasy owners. B.J. Upton struck out in his first four at-bats and nearly made it 5-for-5 in the eighth inning, drawing a walk on a full count. While Upton's proclivity for swinging and missing is nothing new -- though never quite to this extent -- he still hits for power, steals bases and needs to remain owned in all fantasy leagues. If one of your league mates has had enough, well, you know what to do.

We all know how much Upton is absolutely killing your fantasy team, because many of you keep tweeting and posting it in various places. But first of all, it's not true, and second, Upton's track record is too positive to send him to the waiver wire the first week of May so you can add the likes of Ryan Raburn, Matt Joyce and Garrett Jones. Those are a few of the most added outfielders in ESPN standard leagues, and while I understand the instant gratification aspect of fantasy, it's a six-month season and Upton wasn't a top-50 option in ESPN average live drafts by accident. Upton hit 28 home runs and stole 31 bases a year ago. In 2011, he hit 23 home runs and stole 36 bases. He's 28, in his prime.

<OFFER>In other words, we know what Upton can do, and while it's not quite what was expected from him when he was the second overall pick in the 2002 amateur draft, it's certainly not so bad that you would rather have Cleveland Indians veteran Raburn, who is on a crazy hot streak but has a dubious track record and is likely to lose playing time later this week when Michael Bourn returns from the disabled list.</OFFER>

Some of you don't want any part of a player like Upton, who struggles so much in batting average, but I'll take a .240 mark -- and it's been in that range four consecutive seasons, not down at Adam Dunn levels -- when the power/speed combination warrants it. Upton won't hit .148 all season. His BABIP will rise from its .197 mark. He'll hit better than .158 against left-handed pitching. His incredible 32.8 percent strikeout rate will drop. Upton's contact rates aren't particularly out of whack from previous baselines, and his line drive rate should rise.

Nothing good came from Upton's performance Monday, but the first week of May is just too early to cut a veteran player who has proved himself for multiple years. Remember, two seasons ago Braves second baseman Dan Uggla struggled mightily with his new team, hitting below the .200 mark in April, May and June. His second half was considerably better.

Upton doesn't play middle infield anymore -- remember the early days when he did? -- but he and Indians outfielder Drew Stubbs are the only players in baseball to hit 14 or more home runs and steal 30 or more bases each of the past three seasons, and Upton is the superior player.

When is it finally time to give up on Upton? Give me another month, at least. And even then I'll just bench him, not cut him. He's down to 96.3 percent owned. While I paid attention to Gattis on Monday, as he singled in a run in four at-bats and generally butchered left field -- he's not long for the position, folks -- and younger brother Justin Upton continued to thrive in the No. 3 lineup spot, B.J. Upton was a mess. Don't worry, the Braves aren't giving up. There's no chance Jason Heyward, upon his return in a few weeks from an appendectomy, will move to center field so Gattis can continue to handle left. Not happening. The Braves will be patient. So should you.


Box score bits (NL): I'm not selling Braves closer Craig Kimbrel either, but he allowed two more hits Monday -- really, it was three, but left fielder Jordan Schafer's trapped catch was missed -- and had blown two of his previous three saves before Monday. Always consider trading a top closer for a lesser one plus offense. … Braves catcher Brian McCann was hitless in four at-bats with a walk in his season debut. Still, he'll play more than Gattis in a likely platoon. … Reds leadoff hitter Shin-Soo Choo was hit by a pitch for the 11th time this season. While those in OBP formats appreciate the help, if it gets him hurt, it's not worth it. … Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Chris Capuano came off the DL Monday and did not pitch well, though his defense, and notably left fielder Carl Crawford, betrayed him. Still, even NL-only owners can't use Capuano these days. … What's gotten into Chicago Cubs right-hander Scott Feldman? It's one thing to toss a complete game and strike out 12 San Diego Padres last week. On Monday, he threw seven shutout innings of two-hit ball against the Texas Rangers, his former team. I'm still not buying outside of NL-only leagues. … Remember when Anthony Rizzo owners wanted to give up on him? His homer and four RBIs Monday put him on pace for 46 and 127. And his batting average is up to .262. He's terrific.

Box score bits (AL): Boston Red Sox right-hander Clay Buchholz saw his pristine 1.01 ERA rise to 1.60 when he permitted four runs over six innings, but this wasn't a pounding and had nothing to do with accusations of him adding substances to his pitches. He did strike out nine. … The Red Sox placed closer Andrew Bailey on the DL Monday afternoon then watched closer Joel Hanrahan blow the save in the ninth inning and a few batters later leave with right forearm tightness. Look for a DL stint for him as well (his second of 2013). I'd add Koji Uehara over Junichi Tazawa, and Alfredo Aceves shouldn't be ruled out for potential saves. … Kansas City Royals closer Greg Holland blew his second save of the season Monday, but don't all add Kelvin Herrera at once. He allowed his sixth home run of the young season to lose the game in the 11th inning. … Speaking of homers, Oakland Athletics right-hander Jarrod Parker was tagged for four more Monday in Cleveland then admitted he has been battling a sore neck for weeks. Move on, if you already haven't.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Guys whose hot starts are 'real'[/h][h=3]April produces many breakout stars, but only a few will sustain success[/h]By Dan Szymborski | ESPN Insider

One of the bigger challenges of evaluating performances early in the season is that April has a way of lying to you. In the big picture, even the worst major leaguer is a quite accomplished baseball player, and over 100 at-bats or batters faced can sometimes do some things that they never did before or ever will again. If we think back to April 2012, we can recall that Ryan Sweeney (.373/.394/.567) and Kirk Nieuwenhuis (.325/.386/.475) were having breakout seasons and Carlos Pena was back to form (.286/.412/.488). April 2011 bragged about the successes of Philip Humber (3.06 ERA) and Josh Tomlin (2.45). But the tales they told were all lies.

Every good lie has a grain of truth buried inside and embedded in all the crazy Aprils around baseball, there are always some players who have really made a sustainable improvement. The tricky part is figuring out which ones have really taken that step forward that won't come with an accompanying step back. Here are six players whose April success is no illusion, but rather a sign of legitimate improvement.

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[h=3]Dexter Fowler, OF, Colorado Rockies[/h]
<OFFER></OFFER>Fowler's been one of the guys who always seems on the very precipice of figuring everything out, but then stops hitting for a month and is sent down to Colorado Springs for a couple of weeks. His OPS is more than 100 points higher than his 2012 line, but a lot of the weakness of 2012 was a mediocre April. Fowler's line over the past 365 days is now at .311/.403/.506 and that's a star line, even on Planet Coors. He's not going to continue to hit as many homers -- one of every three fly balls leaving the park is simply unsustainable -- but he'll partially compensate for that with more triples (only one this year after 26 over the past two seasons). His batting average may go even higher than it is now with his .338 BABIP being 14 points off his career number.

ZiPS end of season projection: .279/.374/.494, 23 HR, 17 SB

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[h=3]Yu Darvish, SP, Texas Rangers[/h]
There was this feeling of mild disappointment in Darvish's rookie season, as his 3.90 ERA seemed pedestrian after all the preseason hype. The Rangers are seeing the ace they paid for this year, as Darvish is sporting a 2.56 ERA with 14.2 strikeouts per nine, a number even Craig Kimbrel wouldn't look down upon.

In truth, that disappointment felt in 2012 was a little premature. Darvish was essentially a rookie last season, not an established veteran who had maxed out what he could accomplish. Nippon Professional Baseball is the strongest league in the world outside of Major League Baseball, but it's not Major League Baseball. The general offensive philosophy is a little different in Japan and the United States -- in Japan, a greater amount of the batter/pitcher confrontation is based on timing and deception and there's generally less of a willingness to wait for a pitch and more attempt to make contact. NPB's tougher than the Triple-A International League, but the game in Toledo or Pawtucket is closer to the American League in approach.

Darvish came back in 2013 and made that slider with its biting movement an even bigger part of his game, and he hasn't looked back since. Perhaps even more amazing is that he's actually underperforming his dynamite peripherals, with his 1.90 FIP suggesting he's been even more dominant than he's looked. Darvish is making a strong case for himself as the AL's best pitcher right now.

ZiPS end of season projection: 19-8, 3.11 ERA, 270 K

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[h=3]Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers[/h]
Seems like somebody won the Johan Santana trade after all. It just was the Brewers instead of the Mets or Twins. It's hard to blame the Twins for giving up on Gomez after two years and very little improvement, and Gomez's first two years in Milwaukee revealed no indication that the Twins were wrong. But Gomez showed surprising power in 2012, clubbing 19 home runs (previous career total of 25) and he's been even better this year, with six homers already and a .368 batting average. The batting average won't stay there given a .418 BABIP that crushes his career .309 mark, but even with some regression there, he's making a strong case that he's actually a .270/.320/.470 hitter. With his defense, that's a star.

Did I mention that the Brewers signed Gomez to a three-year, $24 million extension for 2014 through 2016? He may be the anti-Ryan Howard, earning the entirety of his contract before it even starts.

ZiPS end of season projection: .294/.344/.499, 18 HR, 31 SB

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[h=3]Lucas Duda, OF, New York Mets[/h]
The Dude's turned himself into a walk machine this year, almost literally refusing to swing at any bad pitch. Duda's improved his swing rate every year he's played in the majors, going from swinging at 30 percent of pitches out of the strike zone to 25 percent in 2012 to a microscopic 19 percent this year, a number generally reached by the high-contact slap hitter cohort. The only question is if he can continue to reap the benefits of being patient, something that eluded players such as Jeremy Hermida and Ben Grieve who fell into the trap of becoming too passive at the plate.

With Ike Davis never having been both good and healthy simultaneously, the Mets need another source of dependable offense than David Wright. The Wilpons -- or possibly one of a number of banks they owe money to -- look to have a great deal in Duda. Now, they just need to convince the NL to use a DH, Duda's best defensive position.

ZiPS end of season projection: .249/.354/.442, 22 HR, 66 RBI

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[h=3]Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals[/h]
Wainwright's always been a very good pitcher, but his early 2013 has been almost otherworldly. Changes in walk and strikeout rate become significant very quickly for pitchers and his K/BB rate stands at 48/3 in 49 2/3 innings so far this season. That's not a typo. Wainwright's career is starting to resemble that of a horror movie antagonist; every time he's exiled to the nether regions of the world with a Tommy John surgery, he comes back for a sequel stronger than ever.

Even sillier to think about is that he's actually been a little unlucky, allowing an unsustainably high .347 BABIP so far this year. It's almost unfair for the rest of the division that Waino's been dominating the league while actually being cheated of some additional outs.

ZiPS end of season projection: 16-9, 3.17 ERA, 184 K, 34 BB

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[h=3]Matt Harvey, SP, New York Mets[/h]
The questions for Harvey weren't really if, but when. Harvey's done his best this season to demonstrate that he wasn't just successfully punching above his weight class in 2012 and that you can cross off the word "prospect" in black, permanent marker. He has a 1.56 ERA with a FIP of 2.27, showing there's no smoke and mirrors involved. The Mets can stop wondering when Harvey will be a successful major leaguer and start wondering if they can get a club-friendly deal to make Harvey a very rich man.

ZiPS end of season projection: 13-8, 3.26 ERA, 187 K

 

[HacheMan]

A shifting market for pitchers

Buster Olney

It's as if somebody is sticking pins into the class of would-be free-agent pitchers:

Roy Halladay: Out indefinitely with a shoulder problem; he'll be examined today. His contract with the Phillies is set to expire this fall.

Gavin Floyd: Out for the year, and maybe for a lot of next year, too.

Josh Johnson: Currently on the disabled list in a season in which it is important for him to show his durability. (And before he went down, he had been struggling.)

Tim Lincecum: His velocity is down, his ERA is up (at 4.41).
Matt Garza: Is still working his way toward his first pitch in a big league game in 2013, after getting hurt on the first day of spring training.

Chris Carpenter: His days as a big league starting pitcher may be over, although he has been working to come back this year in a bullpen role.

What this could mean, of course, is more contractual opportunity for other starting pitchers.
<OFFER>
Paul Maholm continues to set himself up well for free agency in the fall, although it's always possible that he could work out some sort of an extension with the Braves -- to date, there haven't been talks over a new deal -- to stay in a park that suits him.
Another name to keep in mind for free agency, and for the days leading up to the trade deadline: Scott Feldman, who has been throwing the ball well after a rough spring. Feldman shut out the Rangers for seven innings Monday, and now has allowed only five earned runs in his past 27 2/3 innings. The batting average on balls put in play against him is .206, suggesting that he's pitching with some good fortune. But keep in mind that Feldman has shown the ability to go on major streaks in the past; a burst of strong starts this season could not be timed better for him.
After Feldman cut through the Padres May 1, Dale Sveum talked about the new-and-improved Feldman:

"From what I am seeing, there is more arm speed and more velocity on the cutter," Sveum said. "That will always make things a little more crisp. When you add a couple more [miles per hour] things change a little bit. Location and not walking guys is always the formula for pitching [well]. He had a game plan to pitch those lefties in with the cutter and did it all night long."​

And the Padres had similar observations. From Carrie Muskat's story:

"That's pitching like Chris Carpenter or Roy Halladay, that type of stuff -- bringing it back from inside and cutting it on the outside," [Chase] Headley said. "When guys do that, sometimes you just have to tip your cap."Padres manager Bud Black said Feldman mixed his pitches well.
"We just couldn't solve the movement," Black said. "He was hitting corners, but I think the thing that really got him to throw a complete game was the movement on the fastball, keeping us off-guard both in and away, and the timing with the slower breaking ball. We just couldn't muster any good swings against him."
​

Feldman was outstanding Monday, as Fred Mitchell writes.

[h=3]Notables[/h]
• Carlos Santana is hitting .367 in a year in which the Indians have been careful not to put too much responsibility on him. Manager Terry Francona has mostly been hitting him sixth in the Cleveland lineup, especially on the days he catches, because the Indians' staff has been stressing the importance of running a game to Santana. In the past, some rival evaluators have believed that Santana has had trouble separating his work at the plate and behind the plate, so that if he was struggling on offense, he tended to struggle in his work at catcher.

The Indians have stopped losing, and along the way Monday, Mark Reynolds hit one of the longest home runs you will see, as some revenge. Ubaldo Jimenez is showing some signs of life, writes Bill Livingston. We'll have Francona on the podcast today.

• Andrelton Simmons put on a show in the Braves' win Monday. We'll have him on the podcast Wednesday.

• I watched a lot of the White Sox's win over the Royals Monday, when Chris Sale threw 57 pitches in the first two innings -- but was so efficient thereafter that he was still around to get an out in the eighth inning. Jordan Danks was The Man, after a baserunning mistake in the ninth inning, as Mark Gonzales writes.

• Andrew Cashner gave the Padres what they have been envisioning since they acquired him for Anthony Rizzo: He dominated the Marlins, drawing San Diego to within four games of .500, as AJ Cassavell writes.

• The Dodgers are a last-place team after losing for the fifth consecutive game. Don Mattingly is standing behind his guys. Adrian Gonzalez is going to play through his neck pain.

• Jeremy Bonderman has been throwing effectively in Triple-A, with a 3.57 ERA in six starts -- including eight scoreless innings in his last outing -- and so it figures that at some point, the Mariners will either fish or cut bait with him. Bonderman has an out clause in his contract, so Seattle can decide whether to promote him or pursue other opportunities.

Bonderman could be a nice (cheap) fit for the Milwaukee Brewers, who are trying to sort through their early-season issues, as Michael Hunt writes. The Brewers currently rank 24th in starters' ERA. Another team that could be a match: The San Francisco Giants, who don't have a lot of starting pitching depth in their organization and have had a great track record of making use of veteran pitchers like Bonderman.

• Andrew Bailey went on the disabled list, and a few hours later, Joel Hanrahan was set to join him, after suffering a forearm issue.
[h=3]Monday's games[/h]
1. The Giants' win streak ended, as Henry Schulman writes.2. Jarrod Parker is really struggling, and he gave up four homers, as Susan Slusser writes.
3. The Blue Jays had a great comeback win at Tampa Bay, with J.P. Arencibia getting a big hit.
4. The Royals had a tough beat, after a great outing by James Shields.
5. Cliff Lee shut down the Giants.

[h=3]Dings and dents[/h]
1. Johnny Cueto is making progress.2. Brian McCann is back; Jason Heyward is making progress.
3. Alex Rodriguez is back on the field.
4. Curtis Granderson is playing right field and left as part of his rehab.

[h=3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h]
1. The Giants have a roster situation developing. 2. The Rockies must get more production out of Juan Nicasio and Jeff Francis in the days ahead or consider alternatives, writes Troy Renck.
3. The Cubs called up Ryan Sweeney.
4. The Cardinals cleared a roster spot for Matt Adams.
5. Looking to shake things up, the Astros cut Rick Ankiel.

[h=3]AL East[/h]
• Richard Griffin writes that Alex Anthopoulos could change managers without firing John Gibbons.• The Red Sox snapped their losing streak, and David Ortiz extended his hitting streak -- to 26 games.
From ESPN Stats & Information:
1. He's hitting .430 (40-for-93) during the streak. He's actually hitting over .500 when he makes contact (40-for-77), with six home runs.
2. During this streak, Ortiz is hitting .484 versus right-handed pitching, .491 at home and .343 with two strikes.
3. Ortiz's 26-game hitting streak is the third longest by a player as a designated hitter. Paul Molitor had a 39-gamer in 1987. Juan Gonzalez had a 30-gamer spanning the 1998 and 1999 seasons.
• This was a brutal way for the Rays to open a homestand, writes Martin Fennelly.
• There have been a lot of seasons recently in which the Rays play way above expectations, but in watching them this year, it feels like they should be better.
• Freddy Garcia is looking to stay on as the No. 5 starter for Orioles.

[h=3]AL Central[/h]
• The Tigers will be drafting often this year.• The Twins gave away a lead.

[h=3]AL West[/h]
• Two days out of five, the Mariners can match up with anybody, writes Larry Stone.• Josh Hamilton is confident he'll break out of his early-season slump, writes Alden Gonzalez.
• Ian Kinsler felt like the Rangers didn't show up to play Monday.

[h=3]NL East[/h]
• The Marlins ... yeesh.• But the Marlins say they are drawing motivation from a headline.
• Nice piece by James Wagner on a pitching coach's mound visits.
• The Mets still like Ike, writes Kristie Ackert.

[h=3]NL Central[/h]
• Jed Hoyer says the Cubs' bullpen and so-so offense has been a problem, as Toni Ginnetti writes. But Anthony Rizzo has warmed.From ESPN Stats & Information: After hitting .173 with 26 strikeouts in 81 at-bats in his first 21 games, there was talk of Rizzo potentially being demoted to Triple-A. But that talk is no more after Rizzo's past 11 games, including a 3-for-4 with a homer and four RBIs in the win over the Texas Rangers. In that span, Rizzo has 18 hits, including 10 for extra bases, and is hitting .439. He has three times as many hits as strikeouts (six). From a technical standpoint, the big difference in performance for Rizzo is in his performance against pitches on the outer half of the plate, off the outside corner. Early in the season, if he wasn't homering against that pitch, he was popping it up to left field or grounding it to the right side. Now he's hitting line drives against it. Through April 26, he was 8-for-59 against outer-half pitches, with a .088 BABIP due to a low line-drive rate of 0.13. Since, he's 12-for-20 on those pitches with a line drive rate of 0.31. Rizzo had a single and double against outer-half pitches Monday.
• The Cardinals' young arms make the St. Louis bullpen fun to watch, writes Bryan Burwell.
• Jordy Mercer is taking advantage of his opportunity, writes Bill Brink.

[h=3]NL West[/h]
• Paul Goldschmidt wrecked the Dodgers.
[h=3]Other stuff[/h]
• So on Monday night, I sent out this tweet about Melky Cabrera's slow start: "So far, Melky Cabrera's OPS is about 300 pts lower this season than last,and closer to what it was with NYY 2006-2009."And Chipper Jones, a teammate of Cabrera during Cabrera's sluggish 2010 season, responded with this: "Hard to believe!"
• Zack Wheeler has turned the corner, dominating another start. At this point, there really isn't a good reason for the Mets not to promote Wheeler. Look, they're not the Tampa Bay Rays and shouldn't hold him down in the minors to avoid a year of arbitration; rather, they should get him in the big leagues to help him learn as much as he can this year.
• Our man Cris Carter was honored at Great American Ballpark.
• The dimensions of Fenway Park can get into the heads of players, writes La Velle Neal.
• Torii Hunter had some thoughts about Bryce Harper and Mike Trout.
• There is sad news about former Braves outfielder Otis Nixon.
• We had Sergio Romo on the podcast, and he was tremendous talking about that surprising final pitch he threw to Miguel Cabrera to end the World Series.
And today will be better than yesterday.

 

[HacheMan]

Injury updates: Bailey, Hanrahan, Greinke

Stephania Bell

A few more updates since posting Monday's injury cheat sheet.
Andrew Bailey, RP, Boston Red Sox (placed on DL May 6): Inflammation in his biceps is the latest ailment for Bailey, who is guaranteed to miss at least two weeks but could miss more, particularly if the area involved is near the shoulder. According to the Boston Herald, Bailey hopes to be held back from throwing for only a couple of days, but if the symptoms were enough to warrant a DL placement, the downtime is likely to be longer. The team hardly wants to bring him back in two weeks just to see him exit again with an exacerbation of the condition or, even worse, further damage.


Bailey came to the Red Sox in 2012, but the specter of injuries that plagued him in Oakland has continued to be an issue in Boston. In his first season with the club, a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his thumb required surgical repair and kept him out until August. This season, he started strong and was given the opportunity to close when Joel Hanrahan injured his hamstring. His strong performance would have kept him in the role had his arm not flared up.

The first order of business for the Red Sox is getting Bailey healthy enough to perform. Whether he can resume the closer role will have to be answered later and may depend on Hanrahan's status. Hanrahan, who just returned last week from a stint on the DL because of a right hamstring strain, had lost his closer role because Bailey was pitching so well. Then, just as he got the job back (following Bailey's injury), he exited Monday's game with forearm tightness.

While the vague diagnosis of a forearm strain, which is what the team is describing Hanrahan's injury as, can be either benign or serious depending on the source of the symptoms, it raises concern. Hanrahan has experienced pain in his throwing elbow and forearm before, even going on the DL to start the 2010 season because of a flexor-pronator strain, but told reporters after leaving Monday's game, "This is the first time it felt like this." Not exactly encouraging words.

Now both Bailey and Hanrahan are down, and the Red Sox will yield the closing spot once again (to whom is not yet clear).

Zack Greinke, SP, Dodgers (placed on DL April 12, expected back in late May/early June): Greinke went on the DL with a fractured collarbone sustained in a hit delivered by an angry Carlos Quentin, who had charged the mound. Greinke underwent surgery within days to repair the bone, and now it's just a matter of pain management. In fact, the surgery to repair Greinke's clavicle was performed with the goal that he would experience less overall downtime. Since he injured his non-throwing side, the main hurdle for Greinke post-surgery was pain. He must be able to complete his throwing motion without provoking the surgically repaired area such that it leads him to compensate.

The goal seems to be working. Greinke began playing catch shortly after surgery and has resumed harder throwing recently. The short interval of downtime post-surgery was key in keeping his throwing arm from losing the buildup work of spring training.

If he continues progressing at his current rate, it's possible that Greinke could return later this month, sooner than the eight weeks originally projected. Given the rash of injuries that have plagued the Dodgers' roster, they would no doubt welcome his presence.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]'13 rookie hitters mundane so far[/h][h=3]But still plenty of time for young bats to make major fantasy impact[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Quick trivia: Name the highest-ranked rookie hitter on our Player Rater.

It's not so easy, is it?

The answer is Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder A.J. Pollock, who places only 53rd among hitters, 79th overall. Beyond him, only Evan Gattis (89th) also ranks among the top 130 hitters -- that number important because it represents the traditional cutoff for "starter" status in standard ESPN leagues (10 teams times 13 hitting spots).

Yes, this year's rookie hitter crop, so far, has proved weak. For some historical perspective, consider that no rookie this year has hit more than seven home runs (Gattis), stolen more than five bases (Pollock) or batted higher than .271 in the requisite plate appearances for the batting title (Jedd Gyorko). Gattis is on a 35-homer pace, but he's the only one pacing higher than either 25 home runs, 25 steals or a .300 batting average, and his pace might slow by lost at-bats after the healthy return of Jason Heyward. We haven't seen a baseball season in which a rookie failed to bat a qualified .300-plus, hit 25-plus homers or stole 25-plus bases since 1967 … two years before baseball lowered the mound to counteract the game's extreme pitching leaning.

In the American League, the rookie class is especially weak. There's no greater evidence than April's choice for rookie of the month: Justin Grimm took those honors despite making just three starts, only two of them quality starts; and two of his three starts came against the AL's lowest-scoring April team (Seattle Mariners).

Contrasting this year's freshman class to last season's, fantasy owners might be puzzled. How could we have, in a year, gone from witnessing arguably the greatest rookie campaign in history (Mike Trout, whose 10.9 WAR was a rookie record), as well as the greatest season by a teenager (Bryce Harper, whose 5.2 WAR was a record by a teenager) to a year in which practically no rookie matters?


Simple: Let's not forget that last year, the freshman class wasn't looking all that much better on this date. Trout and Harper had been recalled on April 28 -- they had played just 10 days -- and no rookie had greater than five home runs, four stolen bases or a .291 qualified batting average. Andrelton Simmons, Yasmani Grandal, Anthony Rizzo and Manny Machado had not yet been recalled.

In other words, this pattern of slow-starting rookies is nothing new, mostly fueled by big league teams' tendencies to suppress prospects' service time. Service time -- that pertaining to players' future arbitration and free-agent eligibility -- is a frequently asked question for this reason; let's explain how this works:

• A prospect becomes eligible for free agency only after six full seasons in the major leagues, and he receives credit for a full season only if he spends fewer than 20 days in the minor leagues if he's on his team's 40-man roster (for example, Anthony Rendon has spent the entire year on the Washington Nationals' 40-man roster) or fewer than 12 days in the minors if he's not (Wil Myers, for example, is not on the Tampa Bay Rays'). (That per the Tampa Bay Times and Washington Post.)

• A prospect becomes eligible for arbitration either after three full seasons in the major leagues or if he's part of a group called "Super Two." To paraphrase the Major League Baseball rules for "Super Two" status, these are players with at least two but less than three years of big league service who rank among the top 22 percent in total service time in that group.

As you can see in that Post link, Rendon had spent the requisite 20 days in the minors at the time of his April 21 promotion, meaning that even had he remained with the Nationals beyond Ryan Zimmerman's activation from the disabled list, he wouldn't have been eligible for free agency until after 2019. For another example, Nolan Arenado won't be eligible for free agency until after 2019 because the Colorado Rockies waited until April 28 -- past the 20-day minimum -- to promote him. Late April, depending when Opening Day is, represents this important deadline.

The arbitration deadline, however, is variable by player rather than by the scheduling of Opening Day. Although there is no firm date, many teams believe that the beginning of June -- roughly June 1 -- is a "safe" point for players avoiding "Super Two" status.


That in mind, let's get to today's bold prediction: Wil Myers not only will be a member of the Rays come the first week of June but will finish the season as the American League's rookie home run champion and rookie of the year. (As an aside, I'll admit that my late-April promotion prediction on the Fantasy Focus podcast was premature; I believed his free agency, rather than his arbitration, clock was more important to the Rays.)

Although Myers' 2013 stats for Triple-A (.274/.368/.416 triple-slash rates, 3 HR in 29 G) might not be eye-popping, forgive him two things: First, he's adjusting to a new organization, and second, he had been dealing with a wrist injury at the start of the season and a foot injury as a result of a foul ball on April 18. More relevant is Myers' career Triple-A stat line: 128 games (May 16, 2012, through today), .297/.376/.523 triple-slash, 27 home runs (one per 18.6 at-bats), 10.7 percent walk rate, 24.1 percent strikeout rate.

Myers' propensity for strikeouts -- he has 25 whiffs in his past 69 plate appearances -- might make him a batting average/slumps risk as he adapts to the big leagues, but there are few prospects with his raw power potential. Even if he's a mere .260 hitter, he's capable of 20 home runs in the season's final four months, and that'd be well worthy of rookie of the year votes, even if it's not a freshman year on Trout's or Harper's level. Available in 85.3 percent of ESPN leagues, Myers is well worth stashing if you have an open bench spot.

That's not to say none of the rookies currently in the majors warrants attention. After all, rookies such as Wilin Rosario and Todd Frazier hadn't yet captured regular opportunities by this stage of 2012. Might there be a member of this rookie class due for an uptick in value in the coming weeks? (Let's stress up front that these aren't all the meaningful rookies, just the most interesting right now.)

[h=3]Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies

Promoted 10 days ago, coincidentally the same date on the calendar that Trout and Harper were in 2012, Arenado has already proved his worth in fantasy leagues, hitting three home runs in his first eight big league games. Arenado isn't a prospect on Trout's or Harper's level, having failed to crack Keith Law's top 100 in the preseason, but he's capable of making a run at the top-10 third basemen. Certainly he's in the conversation as a National League Rookie of the Year candidate; although remember that the NL boasts a rich crop of rookie pitchers.

Arenado's strength is his contact ability. He had a career 10.2 percent strikeout rate in the minors (9.1 percent in high Class A in 2010, 10.1 percent in Double-A in 2011 and 12.0 percent in Triple-A to begin this year) and was a .299 hitter there who never hit lower than .285 in any single season (2012, Double-A). Thus far, he has only three whiffs in 36 plate appearances (8.3 percent). A hitter who can put the ball into play that frequently is a plus at Colorado's Coors Field; consider that, in 30 individual player seasons in Colorado Rockies history (only batting-title-eligible hitters) of less than a 12.5 percent strikeout rate, 19 times those hitters batted at least .300.

Projection going forward: .285 AVG, 13 HRs, 58 RBIs.

<H3>Oswaldo Arcia, OF, Minnesota Twins</H3>
How about Arcia as a sneaky candidate for AL Rookie of the Year honors? The 21-year-old has improved his performance as he has advanced by level; he had an .826 OPS in high Class A, .955 OPS in Double-A and 1.201 OPS in Triple-A -- although the latter came in a minuscule sample of 10 games to begin this year. Still, Arcia has considerable power potential, evidenced by his .223 isolated power in his minor league career, and now he has a big league job in which to exercise it.

There are only two drawbacks to Arcia's fantasy prospects for 2013: One is Target Field, which isn't a good ballpark for left-handed power; the other is the bevy of right-field alternatives on the Twins' roster, including Chris Parmelee and Ryan Doumit. Still, Arcia appears to be here to stay, and he's a smart, speculative pickup in mixed leagues of 12 teams or greater or in AL-only formats.

Projection going forward: .265 AVG, 12 HRs, 39 RBIs.

<H3>Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B, San Diego Padres

He's not lighting the fantasy world ablaze but has nevertheless settled in as a serviceable middle infielder even in 10-team mixed leagues. If you drafted him as anything more, it was a mistake, likely fueled by his Pacific Coast League-inflated .328/.380/.588 triple-slash line last year. Gyorko looks like a good-not-great option in terms of batting average and home runs; his .271 and 15 paces in those categories look about right.

Projection going forward: .265 AVG, 14 HRs, 58 RBIs.

<H3>Marcell Ozuna, OF, Miami Marlins</H3>
Ozuna's recent promotion might seem surprising, in that he got the call ahead of spring sensation and higher-regarded prospect Christian Yelich, until you consider that Yelich debuted for Double-A Jacksonville on April 20, the same day as Ozuna, and got off to the slower start of the two. Ozuna does have gaudy minor league power numbers, having hit at least 22 home runs in each of the past three seasons, but he's more of a batting-average liability than the aforementioned Arcia.

Projection going forward: .245 AVG, 16 HRs, 47 RBIs.

<H3>Matt Adams, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals</H3>
Adams has returned from his oblique injury, but he faces the same obstacle he did before landing on the disabled list: He has Allen Craig ahead of him on the depth chart at first base. Perhaps no other prospect possesses Adams' combination of batting average and home run upside; he was a lifetime .318/.364/.563 hitter who averaged 36 home runs per 162 games played in the minors. The DL stint was effectively a setback, but the Cardinals can't keep Adams' bat buried on the bench if he hits in part-time action. Craig is capable of manning right field, should Carlos Beltran miss any time, and Craig has a history of injuries himself.

Projection going forward: .285 AVG, 11 HRs, 37 RBIs.

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[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<CENTER># </CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rk </CENTER>	<CENTER>Prv Rk </CENTER>	<CENTER># </CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rk </CENTER>	<CENTER>Prv Rk </CENTER>
1	Miguel Cabrera, Det	3B1	2		76	Brett Lawrie, Tor	3B10	55
2	Ryan Braun, Mil	OF1	1		77	Jean Segura, Mil	SS8	93
3	Mike Trout, LAA	OF2	3		78	Jason Kipnis, Cle	2B8	85
4	Robinson Cano, NYY	2B1	4		79	Torii Hunter, Det	OF37	79
5	Justin Upton, Atl	OF3	5		80	Ryan Howard, Phi	1B11	101
6	Carlos Gonzalez, Col	OF4	7		81	Shane Victorino, Bos	OF38	73
7	Prince Fielder, Det	1B1	8		82	Hanley Ramirez, LAD	SS9	32
8	Andrew McCutchen, Pit	OF5	6		83	Howie Kendrick, LAA	2B9	86
9	Joey Votto, Cin	1B2	9		84	Todd Frazier, Cin	3B11	67
10	Evan Longoria, TB	3B2	13		85	Brett Gardner, NYY	OF39	74
11	Troy Tulowitzki, Col	SS1	11		86	Everth Cabrera, SD	SS10	96
12	David Wright, NYM	3B3	10		87	Kyle Seager, Sea	3B12	104
13	Bryce Harper, Wsh	OF6	12		88	Matt Wieters, Bal	C6	77
14	Adam Jones, Bal	OF7	17		89	Melky Cabrera, Tor	OF40	82
15	Edwin Encarnacion, Tor	1B3	22		90	Alejandro De Aza, CWS	OF41	90
16	Albert Pujols, LAA	1B4	14		91	Josh Rutledge, Col	SS11	113
17	Dustin Pedroia, Bos	2B2	21		92	Lorenzo Cain, KC	OF42	123
18	Jose Bautista, Tor	OF8	18		93	Aramis Ramirez, Mil	3B13	84
19	Buster Posey, SF	C1	20		94	Starling Marte, Pit	OF43	109
20	Ian Kinsler, Tex	2B3	16		95	Mike Napoli, Bos	C7	92
21	Paul Goldschmidt, Ari	1B5	24		96	Paul Konerko, CWS	1B12	91
22	Matt Kemp, LAD	OF9	15		97	Brandon Moss, Oak	1B13	106
23	Matt Holliday, StL	OF10	30		98	Norichika Aoki, Mil	OF44	102
24	Adrian Beltre, Tex	3B4	25		99	Rickie Weeks, Mil	2B10	76
25	Brandon Phillips, Cin	2B4	23		100	Aaron Hill, Ari	2B11	81
26	Austin Jackson, Det	OF11	26		101	Erick Aybar, LAA	SS12	98
27	Starlin Castro, ChC	SS2	27		102	Jed Lowrie, Oak	SS13	83
28	Jay Bruce, Cin	OF12	28		103	Nick Swisher, Cle	OF45	108
29	Alex Gordon, KC	OF13	37		104	Kendrys Morales, Sea	1B14	99
30	Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos	OF14	19		105	Kevin Youkilis, NYY	3B14	103
31	Adrian Gonzalez, LAD	1B6	29		106	Josh Reddick, Oak	OF46	94
32	Ian Desmond, Wsh	SS3	38		107	Mark Reynolds, Cle	1B15	122
33	Chase Headley, SD	3B5	48		108	Jose Reyes, Tor	SS14	120
34	Billy Butler, KC	1B7	31		109	Miguel Montero, Ari	C8	95
35	Pablo Sandoval, SF	3B6	33		110	Nolan Arenado, Col	3B15	NR
36	Shin-Soo Choo, Cin	OF15	40		111	Jason Kubel, Ari	OF47	118
37	Carlos Santana, Cle	C2	44		112	Neil Walker, Pit	2B12	107
38	Dexter Fowler, Col	OF16	47		113	Andrelton Simmons, Atl	SS15	140
39	Mark Trumbo, LAA	OF17	52		114	Nick Markakis, Bal	OF48	105
40	Ben Zobrist, TB	2B5	34		115	Yonder Alonso, SD	1B16	138
41	Yoenis Cespedes, Oak	OF18	41		116	Pedro Alvarez, Pit	3B16	114
42	Carlos Gomez, Mil	OF19	63		117	Ike Davis, NYM	1B17	97
43	Desmond Jennings, TB	OF20	35		118	Jayson Werth, Wsh	OF49	111
44	Carl Crawford, LAD	OF21	49		119	Dan Uggla, Atl	2B13	127
45	B.J. Upton, Atl	OF22	39		120	Chris Carter, Hou	1B18	137
46	Elvis Andrus, Tex	SS4	43		121	Alfonso Soriano, ChC	OF50	NR
47	Alex Rios, CWS	OF23	36		122	Matt Carpenter, StL	2B14	121
48	Freddie Freeman, Atl	1B8	59		123	David Freese, StL	3B17	110
49	Allen Craig, StL	1B9	58		124	J.J. Hardy, Bal	SS16	129
50	Chris Davis, Bal	OF24	45		125	Andre Ethier, LAD	OF51	116
51	Michael Bourn, Cle	OF25	50		126	Justin Morneau, Min	1B19	126
52	Chase Utley, Phi	2B6	66		127	Ben Revere, Phi	OF52	100
53	Anthony Rizzo, ChC	1B10	65		128	Mark Teixeira, NYY	1B20	117
54	Josh Hamilton, LAA	OF26	42		129	Juan Pierre, Mia	OF53	149
55	Jason Heyward, Atl	OF27	46		130	Jonathan Lucroy, Mil	C9	128
56	Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh	3B7	54		131	Josh Donaldson, Oak	3B18	145
57	Jose Altuve, Hou	2B7	61		132	Domonic Brown, Phi	OF54	NR
58	Yadier Molina, StL	C3	53		133	Salvador Perez, KC	C10	135
59	Curtis Granderson, NYY	OF28	62		134	Brian McCann, Atl	C11	NR
60	David Ortiz, Bos	DH1	87		135	Justin Ruggiano, Mia	OF55	143
61	Giancarlo Stanton, Mia	OF29	60		136	Danny Espinosa, Wsh	2B15	134
62	Hunter Pence, SF	OF30	64		137	Victor Martinez, Det	C12	130
63	Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle	SS5	72		138	Will Middlebrooks, Bos	3B19	119
64	Martin Prado, Ari	3B8	57		139	Brandon Belt, SF	1B21	144
65	Michael Cuddyer, Col	OF31	88		140	J.P. Arencibia, Tor	C13	142
66	Nelson Cruz, Tex	OF32	78		141	Stephen Drew, Bos	SS17	NR
67	Alcides Escobar, KC	SS6	70		142	Carlos Ruiz, Phi	C14	132
68	Carlos Beltran, StL	OF33	71		143	Dee Gordon, LAD	SS18	NR
69	Josh Willingham, Min	OF34	75		144	Lance Berkman, Tex	1B22	112
70	Jimmy Rollins, Phi	SS7	51		145	Matt Joyce, TB	OF56	NR
71	Joe Mauer, Min	C4	68		146	Chris Young, Oak	OF57	131
72	Angel Pagan, SF	OF35	69		147	Coco Crisp, Oak	OF58	139
73	Manny Machado, Bal	3B9	89		148	Jedd Gyorko, SD	2B16	NR
74	Wilin Rosario, Col	C5	80		149	Nate McLouth, Bal	OF59	148
75	Michael Morse, Sea	OF36	56		150	Russell Martin, Pit	C15	NR

<THEAD>
<TH style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom"><CENTER> </CENTER>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>

</H3>[/h]

 

[HacheMan]

Thoughts on Indians rotation, Harvey

Eric Karabell

The Cleveland Indians are on quite a roll. Their 1-0 win over the Oakland Athletics on Tuesday night gave them wins in eight of nine games, and starting pitching has fueled the streak. This was the Tribe's fifth shutout of the season; last year's team produced six, along with a staff ERA of 4.78, second worst in the game. Today it's 3.92. Right-hander Zach McAllister tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings Tuesday, a day after Ubaldo Jimenez fanned eight over 5 2/3 effective (for him, at least) frames.
Fantasy owners have been asking about the relevance of these guys, as well as Wednesday's scheduled starter Justin Masterson and rejuvenated lefty Scott Kazmir, but to me, the Tribe option with the most upside is the guy who nearly tossed an erratic no-hitter Tuesday afternoon for the organization's Triple-A club in Columbus, Ohio. Yep, it's the same guy who has walked 13 big league hitters in 10 innings this year, the former first-round pick the Arizona Diamondbacks couldn't wait to unload.

Right-hander Trevor Bauer is a bit too wild to be unleashed regularly on big league hitters just yet, but when he figures things out, watch out. Last week, Bauer was unhittable against the Philadelphia Phillies, permitting just one hit through five innings for his first win and striking out five. He also walked six, as his fastball command remains erratic. On Tuesday, Bauer was one out from a seven-inning no-hitter against the Charlotte Knights in the first game of a doubleheader (doubleheader games are seven innings), but control was again an issue. Bauer walked four and hit four batters, and only 60 of his 106 pitches went for strikes. He did not earn the win. You won't see many lines like this: 6 2/3 innings, zero hits, two runs (both earned), four walks, seven strikeouts.</OFFER>

The truth is that I'm not terribly interested in any Indians starting pitchers for ESPN standard (10-team) mixed leagues. McAllister boasts a 2.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over six starts, but there's little upside. He's not a strikeout pitcher, and the former New York Yankees prospect has an xFIP of 4.32, which tells a more accurate story. His ERA last season was 4.24 as he won six of 22 starts.

I won't go near Jimenez, the former Colorado Rockies flamethrower. His win Monday was his second consecutive, but the walks scare me away. It's tough to issue nearly five walks per nine innings and get away with it. Jimenez is inducing more ground balls while maintaining a strong strikeout rate, but a .240 BABIP against is likely to regress a lot. I see an ERA in the 4.75-to-5.00 range.

The occasionally useful Masterson is the lone Tribe starter owned in more than 5 percent of leagues, but he's also being mass-dropped after allowing 12 runs in his past two outings. His strikeout rate is up, but I don't trust his fine April work against lefty hitters. If it seems unsustainable, it probably is. He'll give you 200 innings, but do you want another 4.93 ERA and 1.45 WHIP like last year?

Kazmir has pitched well his past two outings and he's throwing hard again, but right-handed hitters aren't being fooled in the least, with a .341 batting average and nine extra-base hits in 44 at-bats. That'sa scary stat!

Bauer is the future ace, once he figures out where the ball is going. I'd stash him away in larger mixed leagues and AL-only formats, for he's a lot better than Corey Kluber and has more upside than the other members of the rotation. I'd take McAllister next, as it's certainly possible he remains consistent and avoids blowup outings, but I fear his numbers will regress. Bauer might never be Matt Harvey -- that didn't take long -- but there's something there.

Box score bits (AL): While Bauer was slingin' it at Columbus, his center fielder was Michael Bourn, playing his first game on what figures to be a short rehab assignment for a finger injury. Bourn singled, walked and stole a base. He should be leading off for the Indians by the weekend and is worth activating immediately. … The new top of the order for the Houston Astros fared well Tuesday. Rookie Robbie Grossman stole the first two bases of his career and scored twice. Jimmy Paredes, called up earlier in the day, doubled in a run. And Jose Altuve batted third and homered. Watch Paredes, a switch-hitter who finally showed plate discipline at Triple-A. He brings pop and speed. … Boston Red Sox third baseman Will Middlebrooks had another hitless game Tuesday, lowering his batting average to .192, and he left early with pain in his right side after colliding with catcher David Ross. Middlebrooks has a three-homer game this season, but other than that, he has been terrible. Move on in 10-team mixed leagues. … We don't have to consider Toronto Blue Jays lefty J.A. Happ in a fantasy league to root hard for his health after a line drive struck him in the head Tuesday night.

Box score bits (NL): Miami Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich had quite a night for Double-A Jacksonville, getting five hits in six at-bats, with a home run and pair of triples. Yelich, 21, is hitting .333. Hey, if the Marlins' Marcell Ozuna can skip Triple-A, why not Yelich? I could see this happening within a month, though it's premature to stash him in 10-team mixed formats. … OK, New York Mets right-hander Matt Harvey is ridiculous. On Tuesday, he fanned 12 and allowed one baserunner in nine innings, though he didn't win (thanks to the Mets hitters). Other than Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez, would you take any pitcher over Harvey today? I'm not one for hyperbole, but yeah, he's my No. 4 pitcher. … Tim Lincecum used to be held in such high regard. I watched his Tuesday outing as one struggling Phillies hitter after another squared up his straight fastball and hittable changeup and slider. This is the same guy as in 2012. Lot of strikeouts, lot of walks, lot of runs. He's still worth owning in a 10-team league, but don't buy low.

 

[HacheMan]

Michael Young holding his own, but ...

Eric Karabell

You have to give Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Michael Young credit for a few things: 1) He is among the league leaders in batting average and hits; and 2) While he's no Gold Glover at third base, he's certainly not killing the team there.

As a Phillies fan, I wasn't exactly doing cartwheels after hearing of the relatively risk-free trade that landed him in Philly, but it has been tough to complain about his early results.

That said, Young seems aware that his fine start is a bit superficial and that there's more work to be done. After all, Young enters Wednesday having hit into more double plays than he has extra-base hits. I spoke to Young after Friday's game in Philadelphia about the many ground balls he has been hitting and what seems to be an adjustment in plate approach.

<OFFER>"I feel like I still have my best hitting in front of me this year," said Young, who was hitting .320 at the time and now sits at .330, tied for the 12th-best mark in baseball. "There are always things I want to work to get better at, but I like the fact that I'm battling when I'm getting down two strikes, working deep counts."</OFFER>

It's true that Young has been seeing more pitches than normal -- 3.83 pitches per plate appearance, as opposed to 3.44 his final season with the Texas Rangers -- and his walk rate has doubled. That's quite a change, though perhaps not a planned one. He's also swinging at only 24 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, whereas last season that number was a career-high 33 percent.

Perhaps Young came to the Phillies with something to prove after the Rangers dumped him, but is his newfound patience sustainable?

"I want to make sure I'm getting my pitch and putting it in play hard," said Young, who ranks 12th among active major leaguers with a .302 career batting average and is seventh in hits but only 31st in walks. "I've never walked a lot, but at the same time, I'm not a free swinger; I never have been. Adrian Beltre and I used to have this conversation. We both kind of pride ourselves in having good approaches, a good idea of what we want to do at the plate, but when we're hitting, we get our pitch for the most part, and he doesn't walk much either. When he gets his pitch, it goes in play. It's not fouled off, it's not taken, it's hit hard, and that's what I want to do, put the barrel on it and hit it hard."

I've seen nearly all of Young's at-bats this season, and before looking it up, I assumed he was hitting the ball hard on a regular basis, though often -- and maddeningly so -- on the ground. The ESPN Stats & Info department follows the statistic "well-hit average," and of the 184 hitters qualified for the batting title, Young ranks tied for 44th in the category, which certainly isn't bad. But he really isn't driving the ball this season and is hitting more ground balls than ever. Where are the extra-base hits? Young doubled twice Monday night and hit another Tuesday, giving him six on the season, but he also has a total of 20 home runs since the start of 2011.

"I've had stretches before when I hit a lot of balls in the air, but the first month of the season I've hit more ground balls than in the past," said Young, who ranks eighth in ground ball percentage at 57.9 percent, which is where powerless singles hitters such as Ben Revere and Elvis Andrus reside. Young's ground ball rate was a career-high 53.2 percent last season, well above his 46.6 career mark. The only three hitters delivering a lower fly ball rate are Revere, Everth Cabrera and Andrus.

"It goes in cycles," Young said. "I expect that to change. I'm a line-drive hitter. My game is hitting balls in gaps, getting lot of doubles. Those things go in cycles."

Perhaps he is right. Half of his doubles this season have come in the past two days, and it's a bit early to come to definitive conclusions. After all, while his .394 BABIP figures to regress quite a bit, a .300 batting average from him really wouldn't be a surprise. The power, however, has seemed gone for a few seasons. Fantasy owners are starting to run away, as Young was nearly 100 percent owned a week ago but is down to 94.5 percent owned today. That's understandable, as he is helping only in batting average. But if he continues to bat third on a regular basis -- and we can debate how prudent that is -- he should accrue RBIs just by playing regularly. Young knocked in six runs in April but has three in the past two days.

I think Young can end up at 10 home runs, 75 RBIs and hit .300. Perhaps that's optimistic, but that batting average alone over 600 at-bats -- and he is durable -- would make him worth owning in 10-team leagues. It would not make him a top-10 third baseman, but you probably shouldn't have expected that from him. Last year, he was 22nd among third basemen on the Player Rater. Look for some rejuvenation the final five months, but I'd still choose Manny Machado, Kyle Seager, Todd Frazier, Josh Donaldson and, yes, rookie Nolan Arenado over him. I would, however, keep Young over Will Middlebrooks, Trevor Plouffe, Kevin Youkilis, Chris Johnson and Juan Francisco. It's a decent time to buy low on Young, which is something I didn't expect to write a month ago.

 

[HacheMan]

TRUM: Want opinions?! I got plenty

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

Reaction was positive the last time I wrote a TRUM, I enjoy doing it and, frankly, only one of those reasons is needed for me to do it again. So here we are with "Thoughts, Ramblings, Useless information and Musings" for May 9, 2013, as I take a look through the box scores from Wednesday night …

• So I was watching the Braves-Reds game when my editor, Pierre Becquey, walked in to discuss the day's column. Juan Francisco was up with the bases loaded. "Come on, Juan, I need this," he said. Pierre, a die-hard Toronto Blue Jays fan, has clearly been reduced to rooting for his fantasy team. Anyway, we agreed I'd do a TRUM for Thursday and try to make it a monthly occurrence thereafter … just as Francisco parked a J.J. Hoover offering over the fence for his first career grand slam.

I've always liked Francisco -- with a career AB/HR rate of 22.9, his power is legit -- and now he's getting more or less regular playing time. On pace for a 25-homer/79-RBI season, he's available in more than 95 percent of ESPN leagues and is hitting .280 so far. Chris Johnson eats into his playing time, but I believe Francisco will get a majority of the work there. They need to find a way to keep his bat in the lineup, just like they do with "catcher-eligible Evan Gattis," as I like to call him, who got another start in left field. The problem with the Braves is there's not a lot of room to find playing time once outfielder Jason Heyward (appendectomy) returns, but maybe Gattis gets a fill-in start for Freddie Freeman once a week, two starts at catcher and one or two starts a week in the outfield. So who was not in the Braves' lineup Wednesday? B.J. Upton, who already has been caught stealing three times this season in addition to all the obvious issues. He was caught stealing only six times all last year. If you can't even count on the steals from him …

• Mike Minor, who was in "Lincecum Limbo," is now officially above the Wandy Line.

• Jay Bruce hit his second homer of the season Wednesday. Last train to "Buy-lowville" is leaving the station.

• After A.J. Burnett's last start, I announced on Twitter that he was officially above the Wandy Line, as well, and the start against Seattle on Wednesday was further evidence as to why. Dude hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any start this season, and check out this handy little tidbit put together by The SWAN of ESPN's Stats & Info, Zach Jones:

Most starts allowing 2 ER or fewer since start of the 2012 season

Clayton Kershaw 30
Justin Verlander 28
Jordan Zimmermann 28
Kyle Lohse 27
Felix Hernandez 27
A.J. Burnett 26
Matt Moore 26

That's a helluva list to be on, you know?

• On the other side of the ball, Michael Saunders now has four home runs and six steals in 58 at-bats. He's gonna go 20/20 this year if he can stay healthy, and he's still out there in 22 percent of leagues.

• And look who hit behind him Wednesday night, protecting him in the lineup: Jason Bay. What could possibly go wrong? Bay is a fantasy zombie. You just can't kill him …


• I just completed my first post-NFL draft fantasy football rankings for ESPN. It's a weirdly busy time for me. We're well into the baseball season, I'm starting to gear up for football and then, of course, all the book promotion stuff. This is my first book, so I don't know what is right and what isn't, to be honest. I want to promote the book, of course. I'm proud of it, and I hope it does well. But I also don't want to inundate everyone with constant book promotion. I've decided that once a week on each platform (column, podcast, Twitter, Facebook) is fair, at least until we get close to the release date. If that's too much, let me know. At any rate, if you're interested, they're giving away lots of extras if you pre-order it, including an autographed version. Just click the link to the right for details. If you're not, at least I'm talking about Luis Valbuena in the next paragraph. Wait, what?

• Yes, that's right, Cubs fans. Your No. 3 hitter Wednesday night was Luis Valbuena! And guess what? He went 1-for-2 and scored twice. He's hitting .270 on the season and is available in more than 97 percent of ESPN leagues. Not sure he's worth picking up in 10-team mixed leagues yet, but he is on pace for 24 home runs this year, he qualifies at third base (and is six games away from qualifying at second) and, well, I'm kinda sorta buying it. His walk rate is way up, as is his fly ball percentage. He hit 12 home runs between Triple-A and the majors last year in almost 550 plate appearances. He's getting lucky with his HR/FB rate, but do I think he could settle in at the 15-17 homer mark? Yeah, I do. He's gonna play every day, and in deeper leagues, you could do worse.

• And before you waste any good jokes making fun of the Cubs for batting Valbuena third, set your sights on Miami. The Marlins had Placido Polanco batting third Wednesday night. Third. Placido Polanco. I wish that was a misprint.

• Twenty total hits. Fifteen runs scored. And Josh Willingham goes 0-for-4. Sigh.

• Man, I loved Felix Doubront during the preseason as a deep AL-only sleeper for this season. Man, I was wrong. It's only because of how bad starter Allen Webster looked that maybe you didn't notice Doubront's 5 1/3 innings, 12 hits and six earned runs. Ugh.

• Deep AL-only league owners needing a starter might wanna take a speculative flyer on Bruce Chen. Luis Mendoza keeps getting lit up for the Royals, and Chen has an 8.49 K/9 rate so far this year and a microscopic 0.77 BB/9 over his first 11 2/3 innings this season. Crazy-small sample size, of course, but that's why I'm using the words "deep AL-only" and "flyer." I could see Chen replacing Mendoza (Mendooooooza!!!!!) in the rotation and having value.

• Jake Westbrook might as well change the name on the back of his jersey to "Sell High." Dude's BB/9 rate is over four. He went 5 1/3 Wednesday night, allowing three earned runs, nine hits and one walk, with just one strikeout. His ERA is 1.62. His FIP is 3.47. He's getting very lucky with his strand rate and has yet to allow a home run this season, which will change. Last chance to sell high because it's only gonna get worse from here.


• Just think, some poor guy, in some league, had Adam Rosales in his lineup Wednesday night and is going to lose his league by one home run. You just know it. Rosales, by the way, has a strikeout rate of 19 percent and a walk rate of just more than 4 percent. That batting average is coming down, down, down.

• Also announced on Twitter following his 17-strikeout game: Anibal Sanchez is officially above the Wandy Line.

• Another day, another oh-fer for Ryan Flaherty. This time it was 0-for-3, and Flaherty's batting average is down to .114. This has nothing to do with mixed leagues, but I own Alexi Casilla in a deep AL-only league in which I need speed, and I don't understand why he hasn't gotten more of a chance. He's hitting .200 on the year, so yeah, he's off to a slow start, too, but it's just 35 at-bats. Defensively, I don't think either guy has a huge advantage over the other, and Casilla is a career .249 hitter who stole 21 bases last year. I mean, come on. Flaherty is hitting .114!

• Whoever keeps throwing Ricky Romero out there is just cruel. I'm talking Blue Jays, not fantasy.

• Speaking of the Jays, their leadoff hitter Wednesday night was Brett Lawrie. He has hit there plenty again this season, which I still find interesting.

• Hey, Emilio Bonifacio got a hit! Sorry, just get excited for anything positive from him. Man, has he been terrible this year.

• James Loney is now hitting .385 on the season. I'm not buying him this high, but he has increased his walk rate a little and decreased his strikeout rate.

• He won't stay healthy, but as long as he is, crazy Luke Scott, as I call him, will always interest me. I've always had a bit of a soft spot for him. He went 1-for-3 Wednesday night with two RBIs and is now hitting .350.

• Speaking of batting averages I don't totally buy, Kelly Johnson's is now up to .283. That said, the rest of Johnson's numbers are legit. After home run No. 5 Wednesday night, he's now on pace for a 25-homer/88-RBI season, with 69 runs and 20 steals. And he's available in 77 percent of ESPN leagues. A 20/20 season from a middle-infield spot with a batting average that won't kill you … sign me up!

• I realize I'm not the target audience and there's lots wrong with it, but Lord help me, I really like the show "Smash" on NBC. I can't imagine it'll get renewed after this season, but the wife and I enjoy watching it together and arguing if Katharine McPhee is hot or just cute. I've actually seen every episode of this show. Total guilty pleasure.

• Yup, that's formerly-hated-by-the-Dodgers-front-office and erstwhile trendy fantasy sleeper Dee Gordon atop the Dodgers' lineup. Yes, Dee Gordon. It seems he has learned a bit of plate discipline in the minors. He went 2-for-4 with a run scored Wednesday and is hitting .316 in a small sample. You know the speed is real, and as long as he's getting playing time … And he's available in more than 70 percent of ESPN leagues.

• In my preseason Love/Hate, this is what I wrote about Paul Goldschmidt:

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks (Going in the eighth round, I'd pull the trigger in the fifth): I believe it all. The decreased strikeout rate, the increased contact rate, the improvement against lefties, the walk rate, the double-digit steals. I believe, during the offseason, he saved 40 children from a runaway school bus using only three toothpicks and fishing wire. I believe they found Osama bin Laden based on intel he provided. I believe his DNA will someday be used to cure cancer. I believe it all."​

His preseason average draft position (ADP) was 73.2, but I ranked him 45th overall in my preseason ranks. And you know what? Even I was too low on him. In an ESPN standard 10-team keeper league, I just offered Albert Pujols for him. And I bet I get turned down.

• Speaking of Pujols, man, my Angels are terrible. Been a tough year for me sports-wise. It started off great with RG3 and my beloved Washington Redskins (I lived in Virginia until I was 12). Then his knee injury, then the Lakers' horrific season (I lived in L.A. for 15 years before coming to ESPN and did local radio about the Angels and Lakers, and became a fan of those teams as a result) … Frankly, given the way the Lakers treated Phil Jackson and their horrible decision to hire Mike D'Antoni, it serves us right for the season to go how it did. And now the Angels are a hot mess. And I don't have any hope. The best players on the Angels' payroll right now? Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo and, oh yeah, Vernon Wells!

I cannot express how much this angers me. Wells never should have been traded for. He came to the Angels and was terrible and overpaid for two seasons, so horrific that he couldn't even crack the starting lineup toward the end, hitting .218 and .230, respectively, in his two seasons in Anaheim. His trade value was so low that the Angels had to literally pay a team to take him off their hands; they agreed to pay $28.1 million of the remaining $42 million left on his ridiculous contract. And what did Wells do Wednesday night? A home run and a steal -- hey, it's a combo meal! -- and he's now on pace for a 34-homer, 20-steal season, with 83 runs and 74 RBIs. He is still available in about 10 percent of ESPN leagues, but I don't own him on any of my teams. I can't stand Vernon Wells. Or the Angels' front office. Or the Lakers' front office. Or …

Makes my blood boil just thinking about it. I gotta go. I am one bitter Berry …

 

[HacheMan]

Closer report: Bell gets saves for D-backs

Eric Karabell

Big league managers don't always make what others perceive as the best choices when deciding who should and who should not be the designated closer for their teams. In fact, one might argue, when faced with a less-than-obvious choice, they seem to rarely do so. But those decisions are pretty important and dictate fantasy value. For example, did I particularly want to recommend and own Detroit Tigers right-hander Jose Valverde? Absolutely not! But he's the one getting closing opportunities, and so far, so good, he types with fingers crossed. Now here come the Arizona Diamondbacks with an injured J.J. Putz and does manager Kirk Gibson choose the perfectly reasonable setup man with strong numbers the past few seasons?

Well, his words suggested he didn't make a decision at all, but his actions clearly went with right-hander Heath Bell. Fantasy owners -- and Diamondbacks fans! -- might not like it, but Bell is the one to own.

Most people will simply assume that Bell, who hasn't been very good since 2011, and even then his numbers were misleading, will cough up the job and the deserving setup man David Hernandez will swoop in and save many, many games. Sorry, but I'm not buying that. As noted myriad times with Valverde, Bell doesn't need to be particularly good to keep the job. Gibson clearly wants the experienced closer, for better or worse. I don't expect Bell to pitch well, but let's be fair on a few things. Last year is over, when his ERA ended up over 5, and this year he has struck out 20 hitters in 14 1/3 innings and walked only three, and two of them came in one game. Don't get me wrong: Lefty hitters are going to torch Bell (.409/.458/.727 line), and he wouldn't even make the bullpen of perhaps a third of the big league teams, but he's closing, and we have to deal with it.

It hasn't helped that Hernandez has been less than perfect this season, but I wonder if it even matters. Managers don't have to choose the superior relief pitcher. We talk about the Los Angeles Dodgers and their arrangement constantly. Who would say Brandon League is better than Kenley Jansen? I can't make the case. But Wednesday night Jansen was pitching in the eighth inning of a tied game, allowing a Paul Goldschmidt home run and that led to Bell saving his third game of the season, second in as many nights. Say it out loud and it seems ridiculous: Heath Bell is a closer in the major leagues again. Kenley Jansen is not.

Fantasy owners should add Bell, keep Hernandez in mind for when he struggles and part with Putz, who may need surgery that could very well end his days as a closer. Those asking for Gibson to give lefty Matt Reynolds closing chances aren't paying attention. He won't. It's Bell until it turns into a Carlos Marmol-type deal, and then Hernandez should get a chance. But I doubt it happens in the next week or two. All the Bell issues from his Miami Marlins season of 2012, when right-handed batters hit .317 off him with 17 of the 44 hits going for extra-base hits, all the walks against lefties, they're relevant, but not really. Closing is about opportunity, and half these guys fake it anyway.



Here is what else is happening in the maddening world of closers:

• Dodgers manager Don Mattingly suggested earlier this week that he's contemplating a change to Jansen, but I doubt Wednesday's outing helps. League has blown only one save this season, though he's not overpowering anyone. I still think he leads the Dodgers in saves.

Atlanta Braves stalwart Craig Kimbrel has had his own hiccups recently, blowing three of his past five save opportunities. In that five-outing span he's allowed eight hits in 4 2/3 innings, three runs on three home runs. His stuff is still there, but I've seen the home runs and it looks like location is the problem. His command is excellent. I wouldn't worry here, but any shot right-hander Jordan Walden had of being next in line is probably gone now with his recent woes. Eric O'Flaherty has never saved a game, but he'd be next.

• The Boston Red Sox lost a pair of closers Monday in Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan. Armed with a pair of excellent setup men in Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa, manager John Farrell wasted little time in making the surprise choice, the more unheralded and inexperienced Tazawa. Time will tell if it works or if Farrell flip-flops like many managers. Tazawa is younger than Uehara and possesses strikeout potential and groundball tendencies, but as soon as either Bailey or Hanrahan returns -- who knows when that happens -- the experienced options will likely supplant him. I still predict Bailey, even if another DL stint lurks later in the summer, leads the Sox in saves, so I'd hold him over Hanrahan.

• Chicago Cubs manager Dale Sveum has been using Kevin Gregg to close for two weeks, so why he felt the need to make an official proclamation this week is unknown. Gregg is like Heath Bell. He was awful last season and it's doubtful he'll suddenly thrive, but for now he needs to be owned in all leagues. He still hasn't allowed a run. I wouldn't bother holding onto Carlos Marmol or Kyuji Fujikawa at this point in 10-team formats.

• The best 1-2 relief combination in baseball might be with the Pittsburgh Pirates, as Jason Grilli (league-leading 13 saves) and Mark Melancon (league-leading 12 holds) have combined to allow only two earned runs in 31 innings, while striking out 40. Impressive. If Grilli falters, there's no question who is next in line here.

 

[HacheMan]

Closer Chart

[h=4]Fantasy bullpen organization chart (last updated May 8)[/h]The chart below breaks down all 30 major-league teams' bullpens in terms of relievers' proximity to the closer role, not their overall fantasy value. Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
"Closer" is either that team's officially designated closer, or the pitcher most likely to get the team's next save chance. "Next in line" is the pitcher next-most likely to take over if something happens to the closer, or the one who might get any save chances on the closer's nights off. "Stealth" is a dark-horse candidate for saves, for those digging deep. These pitchers typically don't pose an imminent threat to the closer's job security, but might, given time. "Looming" is a pitcher who has his sights set on the closer role but whose circumstances might currently prevent him from doing so. Generally speaking, usual closers who are on hurt and/or on the disabled list (designated as "Inj." or "DL"), bereavement list ("BL") or restricted list ("RL"), closer-worthy pitchers currently working out of the rotation, specialists (especially lefties) or "next in line" options presently in the minors fit the description.

Team	<center> Closer </center>	<center> Next in line </center>	<center> Stealth </center>	<center> Looming </center>
	Heath Bell	David Hernandez	Brad Ziegler	J.J. Putz (DL)
	Craig Kimbrel	Jordan Walden	Eric O'Flaherty	Luis Avilan
	Jim Johnson	Pedro Strop	Darren O'Day	Tommy Hunter
	Junichi Tazawa	Koji Uehara	Clayton Mortensen	Andrew Bailey (DL)
	Kevin Gregg	Carlos Marmol	James Russell	Kyuji Fujikawa (DL)
	Addison Reed	Matt Thornton	Nate Jones	Jesse Crain
	Aroldis Chapman	Jonathan Broxton	Sean Marshall	J.J. Hoover
	Chris Perez	Joe Smith	Bryan Shaw	Vinnie Pestano (DL)
	Rafael Betancourt	Rex Brothers	Wilton Lopez	Matt Belisle
	Jose Valverde	Joaquin Benoit	Phil Coke	Bruce Rondon
	Jose Veras	Wesley Wright	Hector Ambriz	Rhiner Cruz
	Greg Holland	Kelvin Herrera	Aaron Crow	Tim Collins
	Ernesto Frieri	Scott Downs	Kevin Jepsen	Ryan Madson (DL)
	Brandon League	Kenley Jansen	Ronald Belisario	Matt Guerrier
	Steve Cishek	Jon Rauch	Mike Dunn	A.J. Ramos
	Jim Henderson	Mike Gonzalez	Tom Gorzelanny	John Axford
	Glen Perkins	Jared Burton	Josh Roenicke	Casey Fien
	Bobby Parnell	Brandon Lyon	Josh Edgin	Frank Francisco (DL)
	Mariano Rivera	David Robertson	Joba Chamberlain	Shawn Kelley
	Grant Balfour	Ryan Cook	Sean Doolittle	Chris Resop
	Jonathan Papelbon	Mike Adams	Antonio Bastardo	Phillippe Aumont
	Jason Grilli	Mark Melancon	Jared Hughes	Tony Watson
	Edward Mujica	Trevor Rosenthal	Carlos Martinez	Jason Motte (DL)
	Huston Street	Luke Gregerson	Dale Thayer	Andrew Cashner
	Sergio Romo	Santiago Casilla	Jeremy Affeldt	Javier Lopez
	Tom Wilhelmsen	Carter Capps	Charlie Furbush	Stephen Pryor (DL)
	Fernando Rodney	Joel Peralta	Jake McGee	Kyle Farnsworth
	Joe Nathan	Tanner Scheppers	Jason Frasor	Robbie Ross
	Casey Janssen	Steve Delabar	Esmil Rogers	Sergio Santos (DL)
	Rafael Soriano	Drew Storen	Tyler Clippard	Craig Stammen

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>

 

[HacheMan]

Bits: Zito getting the job done at home

Eric Karabell

I'm not quite sure how San Francisco Giants left-hander Barry Zito does it, since his stuff seems pretty average -- OK, perhaps below average -- but there he was on center stage Wednesday afternoon mowing down the Philadelphia Phillies at AT&T Park for seven innings of four-hit, one-run ball. Zito is owned in roughly half of ESPN's standard mixed leagues, which makes sense because he's worth owning about half the time. That's right, Zito is currently one of the best examples of a hurler fantasy owners should stream for home games, but avoid when he's on the road.

When one watches Matt Harvey and Yu Darvish, one marvels at their ability, and it's not only velocity. Their stuff is tremendous. Watching Zito on Wednesday, I was trying to figure out why Phillies hitters were falling for the off-speed junk and couldn't hit it hard. Nevertheless, Zito has twirled 33 innings at San Francisco's beautiful yet pitcher-friendly stadium in 2013, and permitted two runs. That's all. It's a 0.55 ERA, best in baseball for any pitcher with a minimum 20 home innings. In Zito's case, he's not a strikeout guy, and with a larger stadium, more fly balls are catchable. Perhaps it brings extra confidence that even if foes hit the ball hard, it's not leaving the yard. From 2010-12, Zito's home ERA was 3.63, his road mark 5.12. Zito is worth owning even in shallow 10-team leagues if you're the spot-starting type of owner that plans ahead in daily formats.

Who else has been money so far at home? Some of the top home pitchers are just awesome pitchers one would use in any stadium at any time, such as Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw or Washington Nationals right-handers Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg. Seattle Mariners lefty Joe Saunders is third in home ERA with a 0.81 mark, which is not surprising. Lovely Safeco Field also is large, helpful for pitchers. A year ago, Jason Vargas, a similar softer-tossing lefty, posted a 2.74 home ERA, and that mark was more than two runs higher on the road. Now Vargas is in Anaheim, but still boasts a considerable edge in home ERA. I'd use Saunders and most of the time Vargas at home, but rarely away from home.

Another lefty with interesting splits is the Texas Rangers' Derek Holland. His home ERA is 1.57, which is odd because Rangers Ballpark is a hitter's park and Holland's 2012 campaign saw him predictably post better stats away from home (3.65 road ERA, 5.55 home). Perhaps this is a sign that Holland's excellent start this year should be taken a bit more seriously. Or perhaps it's three outings and hardly enough to imply anything. It doesn't matter too much, since Holland will be active much of the time anyway.

In fairness to Zito, he has pitched only twice on the road this season, and one of them was a nightmare outing in Milwaukee when the Brewers tagged him for nine runs in 2 2/3 innings. Zito has made seven starts this season and permitted zero or one run in all but that outing. Does that mean Zito is safe for road games? Not really. Overall his xFIP is 4.41, and he's not missing bats. A patient offense could hit him, even at home. Other pitchers I'd consider for home games include Saunders, Vargas, Tommy Milone, Dillon Gee, Edinson Volquez and Kevin Correia, and I've downgraded New York Mets lefty Jonathon Niese from all-the-time status to simply home games as well.

On Thursday, the Mets are at home and Gee is on the mound against the Pittsburgh Pirates ... sounds like a plan to me!

Box score bits (NL): Atlanta Braves second baseman Dan Uggla smacked a pair of solo home runs Wednesday, scoring three times and raising his paltry batting average to .209. Uggla has proven 30-homer potential, and must be owned. ... The Miami Marlins started yet another second baseman in Derek Dietrich, who singled in three at-bats in his major league debut Wednesday. Dietrich, 23, was hitting for power and taking walks at Double-A Jacksonville, and he brings more upside than Donovan Solano and Chris Valaika, both injured. I'd take a shot on him in NL-only formats. ... Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jay Bruce has angered his fantasy owners by having just one home run and an NL-leading strikeout total through five weeks. He homered again Wednesday. I'd buy low. I have no concerns with Bruce. ... St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Jake Westbrook entered Wednesday's start with a league-leading 1.07 ERA - and a 4.48 xFIP. So which figure do you trust? On Wednesday, Westbrook was tagged for four runs (three earned) and nine hits in 5 1/3 innings. Run away. ... Former Cardinals overachiever Kyle Lohse allowed his own nine hits and four runs in 6 1/3 innings. Now 1-4 with a 3.53 ERA, Lohse remains safer than Westbrook, but 20 hits over his past two outings is a bit worrisome.

Box score bits (AL): Baltimore Orioles shortstop J.J. Hardy homered Wednesday for the third time in four games, giving him six on the season. Hardy is owned in a vast majority (87 percent) of ESPN leagues, and he should be. He has averaged 26 home runs his first two seasons with the Orioles. ... Fantasy owners would surely take 26 home runs from Mariners catcher Jesus Montero. He hit his third on Wednesday, but he's showing no signs of being close to a top-10 catcher. He enters Thursday ranked 37th among catchers on the Player Rater. Move on. ... Those of you who trusted Boston Red Sox rookie Allen Webster for his spot start Wednesday against the Minnesota Twins got burned; Webster didn't escape the second inning and was charged with eight runs. Spot-starting is a dangerous practice with unreliable arms, even against offenses like the Twins'. ... The Twins' Pedro Florimon homered, doubled and knocked in three, but he's not someone who is "emerging" as a hitter. He's a No. 9 hitter for a reason. ... With the Oakland Athletics fielding an entire outfield on the disabled list (Chris Young, Josh Reddick, Coco Crisp), first baseman Brandon Moss moved to right field to make room for Daric Barton. Remember him? Barton draws many walks, but he hit one home run in more than 400 plate appearances for Oakland over the past two seasons. Unless it's an AL-only format using OBP, pass on him. ... Eligibility alert: New York Yankees outfielder Vernon Wells, who homered and stole a base Wednesday, finished the game playing third base! For some of you, that could be valuable. I'm sticking with Wells in 10-team formats. He has slumped of late, but he's going to hit 25 home runs this season.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Top 10 prospects; recent call-ups[/h][h=3]What can fantasy owners expect from Martinez and other new big leaguers?[/h]By Jim Callis | Baseball America


Over the past week, big league teams have summoned four players who offer some fantasy intrigue but had yet to appear on our Fantasy Top 10 Prospects list this year. Some brief comments on each:

• Derek Dietrich, 2B, Miami Marlins: A second-round pick by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2010, Dietrich went to the Marlins in an offseason deal for Yunel Escobar. He batted .282/.408/.505 in Double-A before Miami turned to him after Donovan Solano and Chris Valaika got hurt. Dietrich probably won't hit for a high average but could provide 10 homers if he holds onto a regular job.

• Carlos Martinez, RP, St. Louis Cardinals: The best prospect of this group, Martinez has shown a mid-90s fastball and a hard curveball since signing for $1.5 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2010. Mitchell Boggs' implosion led the Cardinals to promote Martinez from Double-A, and he responded with scoreless work in his first two big league appearances. It's unlikely that he'll ascend to the closer's role this season in St. Louis, but it could happen soon.

• Jimmy Paredes, OF, Houston Astros: Part of a 2010 trade that sent Lance Berkman to the New York Yankees, Paredes has the versatility to play anywhere in the infield or outfield. The Astros are using him in right field after he opened the season batting .366/.433/.580 in Triple-A. He doesn't control the strike zone well enough to produce high batting averages, but he should offer at least gap power (three doubles in his first three games with Houston this year) and double-digit steals. He's the best bet of these four guys to claim regular playing time.

• Burch Smith, SP, San Diego Padres: The Padres will officially promote Smith on Saturday, when he's scheduled to start against the Rays. He always demonstrated a live arm at Howard (Texas) Junior College and the University of Oklahoma, but lasted 14 rounds in the 2011 draft because he was raw. Smith, who usually operates at 92-94 with nasty cutting action on his fastball, leads the Double-A Texas League in opponent average (.155) while ranking second in WHIP (0.73), third in ERA (1.15) and fifth in strikeouts (37 in 31 innings). He has more bat-missing ability than anyone else in San Diego's rotation.

This week's Fantasy Top 10:

[h=3]1. Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays (Last week's rank: 1)[/h]Season totals: .274/.370/.410, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 2 SB in 31 games at Triple-A Durham.
Update: Myers is showing less patience and hasn't homered in May, and he has just three long balls all season after slugging 37 in 2012. He left Thursday's game after two innings with an upset stomach. Meanwhile, the Rays have been getting increased production from their outfielders and their offense overall.
What he can do: Tampa Bay may delay Myers' arbitration eligibility by waiting until at least June to call him up, though that still would give him enough time to hit 15 homers in the majors this season.


2. Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians (Last week's rank: 2)
Season totals: 1-0, 2.55 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 31 K's in 24 2/3 IP (four starts) at Triple-A Columbus.
Update: Bauer was one out away from a seven-inning no-hitter on Tuesday before he got pulled after reaching 107 pitches, hitting one batter and walking another in the seventh. He continues to be difficult to hit (.185 opponent average), and he continues to battle his control (10 walks, five hit batters in 24 2/3 innings).
What he can do: Bauer already has made two spot starts for Cleveland this year and may make a third in Monday's doubleheader against the New York Yankees. The Indians are contending after winning 11 of their past 12 games, and Bauer could solidify the No. 3 slot in their rotation if he does a better job of locating his pitches.

[h=3]3. Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Last week's rank: 5)[/h]Season totals: 2-1 record, 2.23 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 26 K's in 36 1/3 IP (seven starts) at Triple-A Indianapolis.
Update: Cole is finally showing signs of harnessing his No. 1 starter stuff, allowing just eight hits and four walks in 13 innings over two starts in the past week. Nevertheless, the Pirates have said they won't call him up when they need a starter on Sunday.
What he can do: If the Pirates keep contending and Cole keeps finding the strike zone, he won't remain in Triple-A much longer. If he gets the call in June, he could provide 7-8 victories and 100 or more strikeouts.

[h=3]4. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals (Last week: unranked)[/h]Season totals: .314/.473/.557, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 0 SB in 20 games at Double-A Harrisburg.
Update: Rendon went 6-for-25 while filling in for an injured Ryan Zimmerman in Washington, then returned to Double-A last Saturday. He has been scorching ever since, with four multihit contests in six days fueling a .364/.500/.682 performance.
What he can do: Rendon is capable of providing batting average, homers and RBI as part of a potent Nationals lineup. If he keeps hitting like this, they'll find a way to get him regular at-bats in the majors.

[h=3]5. Nick Franklin, 2B/SS, Seattle Mariners (Last week's rank: 3)[/h]Season totals: .340/.461/.511, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 5 SB in 26 games at Triple-A Tacoma.
Update: After going hitless in four straight games, Franklin has rebounded to go 6-for-14 with three doubles in his past four contests. The Mariners are playing better but still are getting little production out of middle infielders Dustin Ackley, Roberto Andino and Brendan Ryan.
What he can do: Seattle won't pull the plug on Ackley, the No. 2 overall pick in 2009, but Franklin eventually could push him to the outfield. For now, Franklin is more likely to get a shot at shortstop, where he could surpass the combined OPS of Andino (.443) and Ryan (.356).

[h=3]6. Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: 4)[/h]Season totals: .296/.336/.444, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 3 SB in 28 games at Triple-A Memphis.
Update: Taveras isn't having a monster season to match his past two, but he's still considered the best hitting all-around hitting prospect in the minors and getting the job done in center field. Jon Jay is finally starting to hit for St. Louis, and it will continue to take an injury to create big league playing time for Taveras.
What he can do: Taveras has to bide his time, but his offensive upside makes him a fantasy prospect worth waiting for. He could provide a significant second-half boost if an opening arises.
[h=3]7. Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers (Last week's rank: 6)[/h]Season totals: .234/.341/.369, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 5 SB in 29 games at Triple-A Round Rock.
Update: Profar got a scare when he was hit on the left thumb by a pitch and left the game on Tuesday, but he returned the next night with his second three-hit contest of the season. The Rangers' lone weakness is in their outfield, and while Profar has the athleticism to play there, he has yet to do so as a pro.
What he can do: Like Taveras, Profar is an elite prospect who may need an injury to a big leaguer (or in this case, Ian Kinsler moving to the outfield) to get much big league playing time in 2013. But he could offer all-around offensive value at a scarce position if he does, so he stays in the Top 10.
[h=3]8. Kyle Gibson, SP, Minnesota Twins (Last week's rank: 9)[/h]Season totals: 2-4 record, 3.32 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 35 K's in 40 2/3 IP (seven starts) at Triple-A Rochester.
Update: Gibson followed up his worst outing of the season last Friday with a nine-inning shutout on Wednesday. That same night, Pedro Hernandez lasted just two innings in a start against the Red Sox, swelling his ERA to 5.96.
What he can do: Gibson has regained the quality and command with his pitches since Tommy John surgery in September 2011. The Twins have multiple weak links in their rotation, and he'll force his way to Minnesota before too long.

[h=3]9. Zack Wheeler, SP, New York Mets (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]Season totals: 2-1, 4.00 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 40 K's in 36 IP (seven starts) at Triple-A Las Vegas.
Update: Wheeler struggled for much of April, battling blisters as he adapted to the tough pitching environments in Las Vegas specifically and the Pacific Coast League as a whole. He has allowed just one run over his last two starts, including six shutout innings on Sunday. The No. 6 overall pick in the 2009 draft by the San Francisco Giants, Wheeler became a Met in a short-sighted trade for Carlos Beltran at the 2011 trade deadline. Wheeler has a mid-90s fastball, a hard slider and the makings of a decent changeup. His command can come and go at times, but he's still just 22 and some scouts preferred him to Matt Harvey when both were in the minors.
What he can do: There's no incentive for the Mets to promote Wheeler before June, which would accelerate his arbitration eligibility. But he looks nearly ready and would at worst be New York's third-best starter behind Harvey and Jonathon Niese.

[h=3]10. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: 8)[/h]Season totals: .198/.260/.273, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 17 SB in 30 games at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: Hamilton had his third and fourth multi-hit games of the season in the last week, but that still couldn't keep him from falling below the Mendoza Line. He also drew just one walk in six games and got stealing twice in three tries. It's too early to panic, but he's not showing any signs of being able to adjust to Triple-A pitching.
What he can do: Hamilton is baseball's fastest player and his 100-steal potential (over the course of a full big league season) should make him a fixture on this list until the Reds promote him. It's starting to look like that might not happen until 2014, however.


Dropped out (last week's rank): Grant Green, 2B, Oakland Athletics (10). Called up (last week's rank): Dee Gordon, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers (7).

 

[HacheMan]

Can we still believe in Eric Hosmer?

Eric Karabell

Heading into Thursday's games, plenty of players with 100 at-bats this season had yet to hit a home run, but the names read like a who’s who of powerless singles hitters, from Texas Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus to San Francisco Giants infielder Marco Scutaro and Miami Marlins contact guys Placido Polanco and Juan Pierre. Sitting there on the cusp of 100 at-bats at 97 was Kansas City Royals disappointment Eric Hosmer, a player manning a power position at first base but providing virtually no power.

Hosmer mercifully hit a Freddy Garcia pitch the opposite way over the left-center-field fence in Baltimore on Thursday night, driving in two runs and exiting the class of the homerless Ben Revere types of the world. However, it hardly means this is the start of something big. In fact, many fantasy owners have already moved on. I admit I’ve thought about it, too, and I’ve been a big supporter. Nobody sets a drop-dead date for when they give up on players, though. There’s still little evidence that Hosmer’s 2011 season, when he hit .293 with 19 home runs in 128 games, is what we should expect in 2013, although I hold out hope. Last year was a major step back for Hosmer, as he hit .232 with 14 home runs.

What caught my eye about Thursday’s Royals box score was how manager Ned Yost made major changes to his lineup. I don’t think that’s why Hosmer finally went deep, being moved into the No. 5 spot hitting behind designated hitter Billy Butler, which he was doing anyway. It’s certainly a new look, though not really the most sensible one. Hosmer should be leading off; if he’s not going to hit for consistent power, his relevant on-base skills and occasional show of speed can help the team. Perhaps he’d help fantasy owners more scoring runs, stealing bases. Of course, there was nothing wrong with incumbent leadoff hitter Alex Gordon, either, but he was moved down to third. He frankly has less impact on the lineup there, but he homered and knocked in two Thursday, so that’s probably enough to convince Yost it’s a trend.

Struggling shortstop Alcides Escobar, carrying one of the worst on-base percentages on the squad, moved up to leadoff, and center fielder Lorenzo Cain hit second. Escobar posted a .331 OBP last season, but it was fueled a bit too much by batting average, not patience. Escobar walked 27 times against 100 strikeouts. Put simply, he’s not an ideal choice to lead off. Cain gets on base and the speed is a nice asset, but this is just rearranging of bodies hoping for a spark, and it’s not likely Hosmer ends up topping the lineup anytime soon. There’s actually some good in his underlying numbers, despite the loss of power: He’s hitting fewer ground balls than last season -- although still too many -- and quite a few more line drives. He’s just not hitting many fly balls, and if he’s going to hit home runs, he’ll need to raise that mark.

Hosmer isn’t killing fantasy owners with a .277 batting average; it hurts when a first baseman has only one more home run than his owner, but still, with such a high line-drive rate -- he’s ninth in the league at 27.3 percent -- I’d say Hosmer is likely to keep raising that batting average. At this point I’d take 15 home runs this season if he hits .277. After all, we don’t need a Casey Kotchman with speed, as that’s not what anyone envisioned, either. For now I’m still going Hosmer over Mitch Moreland, Adam LaRoche, Yonder Alonso, Justin Morneau and Paul Konerko, but time’s a wastin’.
Anyway, the Royals won Thursday, so let’s go briefly through this new lineup with my latest thoughts.

Escobar, SS: He stole 35 bases last year and certainly could repeat that mark, so I am buying low. His numbers actually look similar to 2012, except he’s really cut into his strikeout rate. Kudos to him. If he remains at leadoff, he’ll score runs.

Cain, CF: One of my preseason sleepers looks fine so far, although he’s hit only one home run and he’s had some trouble stealing bases successfully (4-for-7). Still, I could see 15 home runs and 15 steals, down from my original 20-20 hopes.

Gordon, LF: No concerns here. If he’s not leading off, he’ll knock in more runs. His walk rate is way down so far, which could poke a hole in that fancy .316 batting average soon. He’s also homered in three straight games, so perhaps his goal is power.

Butler, DH: Don’t think about selling low. With more walks than strikeouts and no reason to believe the power is waning, he can raise his batting average 50 more points.

Hosmer, 1B: Hopefully he doesn’t go another five weeks sans a home run. I’ll wait until June to see.

Salvador Perez, C: Very available in ESPN leagues, but there’s power lurking, and he has some movement in his .278 batting average. I could see him hitting .300 with 15 home runs.

Mike Moustakas, 3B: His home run Thursday was his third of the season but second in as many days. He’s not likely to hit better than .270, perhaps even for a full season, but I trust his power more than Hosmer at this point. Moustakas isn’t Pedro Alvarez; there’s upside for 25 home runs and a .260 batting average.

Jeff Francoeur, RF: A really nice fellow, but that .274 OBP is a real problem. Unfortunately it’s 2012 all over again. Owning Jarrod Dyson in a deeper league seems smart, but I don’t see Francoeur being benched or traded.

Chris Getz, 2B: Frankly, I cannot understand why the Royals play him. Elliot Johnson isn’t really any better, though. Johnny Giavotella isn’t exactly a future Hall of Famer, but still, he’s better than this.

 

[HacheMan]

Heyward, Greinke close to returning

Stephania Bell

Every Monday in this space, we'll provide updates on a variety of players to help you make your weekly lineup decisions. We'll specifically try to hit the players who are day-to-day, have just gone on the DL or are ready to return, so that you can better decide whether you can count on them or not.

All projected return timelines should be considered fluid.


[h=3]Hitters[/h]
Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves (placed on DL April 21, could return this week): Heyward went on the disabled list following an emergency appendectomy, so at least there's comfort in knowing this is not going to be a recurrent problem. Now it's just a matter of when he will return … and when he'll be effective.

Heyward has been on a rehab assignment for several days at Triple-A Gwinnett, and other than some soreness that warranted a day off, his stint has been uneventful from a health perspective. It also has been uneventful at the plate, that is until Sunday, when he finally started hitting. The Braves don't have an exact date for his return, but he's expected to rejoin the team at some point this week.


Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Yankees (opened season on DL, could return this week): It's only fair that the Yankees actually get a player back from the DL after adding more and more players to it this season. Granderson's recovery and rehab have been totally uneventful, just the way the medical staff likes it. He has been crossing "to do" items off the list during his rehab assignment: He has faced both left- and right-handed pitching, played defense and played both day and night games. Perhaps most importantly, Granderson has not shown any lingering apprehension effects from getting hit by a pitch this spring. As he told the Yankees' official website reporter regarding his rehab at-bats, "There was no recall of the injury. There's going to be pitches inside, I'm going to get hit again, but you got to stay in."

The Yankees would like it if he stays healthy and stays in. There's every indication he will come back and be productive immediately, and that return could happen any day now, potentially as early as Tuesday, when the Yankees open a series at home.

Coco Crisp, OF, Oakland Athletics (placed on DL April 30, could return this week): Crisp strained his left hamstring trying to run out a groundball in the A's seemingly never-ending Monday night game nearly two weeks ago. Fortunately, the strain appeared mild and Crisp could potentially attempt to run the bases soon, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Obviously his tolerance of running will help determine his readiness to return -- manager Bob Melvin told reporters Crisp might not need a formal rehab assignment -- but as is always the case with hamstrings, until he runs in games without a setback, it will be impossible to tell just how healthy he is.

Chris Young, OF, A's (placed on DL April 30, could return Wednesday): The A's hope to get another outfielder with a soft tissue injury back soon. Just as Coco Crisp recovers from his hamstring, Young is working to get past a left quad strain that has sidelined him the past couple weeks. After passing the necessary rehab clearances, Young is expected to get some at-bats in extended spring training games during the early part of the week, according to the A's official website. If all goes well, he could return when eligible on Wednesday.

Neil Walker, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates (placed on DL retroactive to April 27, expected to return Monday): Two weeks ago in this space, I wrote about how the Pirates hoped to return Walker within days if he could swing the bat effectively. Clearly he could not, and the decision was made to place him on the DL. After beginning a rehab assignment last Thursday, it seems Walker has shown he has moved past the injury, and his return appears imminent.

Michael Cuddyer, OF, Colorado Rockies (placed on DL retroactive to May 9): Cuddyer had already missed three games with what he referred to as inflammation in his neck, related to a disc problem. Now it's clear he will be missing a few more. This is not Cuddyer's first episode of neck pain, but it appears to be the first time it has forced him on the DL. The hope is that the symptoms are limited to his neck and that it won't progress into his shoulder or arm. Rest is the best option for him in the short term, but given the variability of these types of ailments, a definitive timetable is difficult to determine. The soonest he can return is May 24, if his neck cooperates.

Jayson Werth, OF, Washington Nationals (placed on DL retroactive to May 3): This doesn't come as a huge surprise after Werth's hamstring continued to bother him despite missing the past eight games. If there is any good news, it's that it can be backdated to the last time Werth saw the field, making him eligible to return May 18. Whether he will be able to actually run at full speed by the end of this week remains to be seen. The Nationals have also indicated they believe dehydration was a factor in Werth's repeated muscle cramping.

The hope is that all will be under control and back to normal by the end of the week, although fantasy owners might want to wait until next week to insert him into their lineup.


[h=3]Pitchers[/h]
Zack Greinke, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (placed on DL April 12, could return Wednesday): When Greinke was injured in the brawl with Carlos Quentin, no one knew what to expect since a clavicle fracture in the non-throwing arm of a pitcher is not exactly your everyday injury. As soon as the Dodgers announced he was undergoing surgery to stabilize the fracture, his prognosis for return actually improved, as it appeared he would not face as much down time from throwing.

Turns out that was an accurate assessment. Despite the Dodgers' (understandably) conservative eight-week projection, Greinke appears poised to possibly return this week, which would mark 4 1/2 weeks post-surgery. He has passed the point of having discomfort and pitched in High-A ball last Friday. His velocity is up where he left off at the time of injury, and he appears from a functional standpoint to be ready to pitch in the majors. The final remaining hurdle is whether the bone has healed to the point where the team is comfortable with him absorbing contact. (The High-A outing afforded him the opportunity to pitch with a DH in the lineup; when he returns to the Dodgers, he will need to hit, run and potentially absorb contact should there be a collision). Expect those clearing tests to be performed over the next 24 hours and a decision to be forthcoming shortly after. If the team opts to hold Greinke out of a return to the majors Wednesday, he would likely get another rehab start this week and rejoin the team next week.

Brett Anderson, SP, A's (placed on DL April 30, could return Friday): After originally spraining his ankle in mid-April, it looked as if Anderson could avoid a DL stint with some rest. But he got called into service in the A's marathon game a couple weeks ago and it set him back, forcing the DL stint. With a pitcher so recently removed from Tommy John surgery, it's probably for the best that he allow the ankle to recover sufficiently to not threaten his throwing mechanics and, consequently, the health of his arm. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, Anderson is likely to rejoin the rotation Friday.

Ryan Madson, RP, Los Angeles Angels (opened the season on DL, could return this week): Madson's return following last April's Tommy John surgery has been delayed due to the soreness he experienced this spring. The delays aren't highly unusual, but it does bode for a gradual progression even as he returns to his major league team. Madson has been pitching in extended spring training and will begin a rehab assignment this week. He might not spend much time there, as the team could bring him up to the majors to build further endurance in that setting. As the Los Angeles Times have reported, he will not be the closer immediately upon return, and how the Angels opt to use him will likely depend on what they see from him as he resumes big league action.


Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds (placed on DL April 15, could return within 1-2 weeks): Cueto's original ailment was reported as a triceps injury, then was modified to a lat strain (more typical for a pitcher). But as he was recovering from that injury, he developed soreness in his oblique, a pitcher's nemesis, forcing a slowdown in his return schedule. Now Cueto seems to have cleared most of the major obstacles in his recovery and has initiated a rehab assignment. His next rehab outing is slated for Tuesday, and the Cincinnati Enquirer is reporting he could return to the Reds' rotation May 19.

It's entirely possible the team opts for another rehab start, depending on what they see during his outing this week and how Cueto feels after consecutive starts. Either way, it appears that, barring a setback, his return is not far off.

Andrew Bailey, RP, Boston Red Sox (placed on DL retroactive to April 29, could return within a week): Bailey is eligible to return from the DL Wednesday, but the club could still opt to send him out on a rehab assignment, pushing back that return. Bailey went on the disabled list with a biceps strain, a bit more worrisome than the one that sidelined teammate John Lackey because of the location of Bailey's symptoms (higher, closer to the shoulder). As noted in this space last week, Bailey has been plagued by a series of injuries, but he started the season strong for the Red Sox. With Joel Hanrahan now out for the remainder of the season, it would seem Bailey has the opportunity to recapture his closer role from Junichi Tazawa, if he can stay healthy. Considering his history, particularly in light of this current ailment, that's a big if. Even if Bailey returns without a rehab assignment, the bigger question will be how long he can go without a potential flare-up.

 

[HacheMan]

Bits: Kelly Johnson, Blue Jays hitters

Eric Karabell

Two Tampa Bay Rays hitters are featured among the top 10 hitters on ESPN's most added list, but only one of them is intriguing. That's second baseman/outfielder Kelly Johnson, who has fit in well in the team's No. 2 lineup slot while playing mainly left field. Johnson struck out in his lone official at-bat Sunday, but he also drew three walks. Jackpot! Johnson is hitting a cool .275, well above last season's miserable .225 mark with the Toronto Blue Jays, but even then he was contributing valuable power and speed from a middle-infield spot.Johnson is still providing the power/speed combo, and while he's still swinging and missing quite a bit -- he's on pace for 22 home runs, 18 steals and 136 strikeouts -- anyone capable of a 20-homer/20-steal season is worth a look. The well-traveled Johnson might seem eminently capable of dropping 50 batting average points soon, but despite the whiffs, he's making considerably more contact than last season. Remember, this is a player who averaged 21 home runs and 14 steals the past three seasons (and hit .245). Hey, I'd take those numbers in 2013, and he's on pace to better each mark, thanks to the mercurial ways of the Rays. He is and should be attractive in ESPN 10-team standard leagues.
Teammate James Loney is also popular, the No. 2 most-added first baseman over the past week. The No. 1 guy is the Texas Rangers' Mitch Moreland, but Loney is owned in more leagues. Wow, Rays, take a bow! Loney is a mere one base hit away from leading the major leagues in hitting here in mid-May. He homered Sunday, his third of the season, and he's batting .376 with a .989 OPS. Only Miguel Cabrera has a higher batting average. The comparisons end there.
While there's little harm in adding Loney now -- depending on whom you part with, of course -- just be prepared for the batting average to fall, and there's no reason to think he'll hit for enough power to make him a worthy corner infielder for your team. Loney enters the week one of five players being aided by a BABIP of better than .400. All five players (Joe Mauer, Carlos Gomez, Starling Marte, Cabrera and Loney) are hitting considerably better than .300, but I think only Mauer and Cabrera stay there. Loney is taking walks, making more contact and not striking out as much, and considering he has been on the bench against lefty pitchers, I wouldn't be shocked if he batted .300. But I'll say he hits more like .250 the rest of the way, and I'll take the under on 12 home runs and 70 RBIs. The fact we're even discussing him at all after years of underachievement with the Los Angeles Dodgers is a feat in itself.


Box score bits (AL): Michael Bourn owners should have the Cleveland Indians outfielder active this week. Bourn came off the DL over the weekend and stole two bases. He has at least 40 more in him. … Indians right-hander Chris Perez wasn't able to save Sunday's game; he suffered shoulder stiffness while warming up. With Vinnie Pestano on the DL and Joe Smith having been used already, that left Rich Hill and Cody Allen to finish off the Detroit Tigers. Pestano could return this week, but Perez is a risky activation until proven healthy. Smith (0.66 ERA) seems like a decent deep-league pickup, just in case. … Good luck trying to figure out Blue Jays speedster Emilio Bonifacio. He entered Sunday 1-for-16 in May, but with three stolen bases. On Sunday he homered, doubled, stole a base and scored three runs. I want to buy low, as he's second base-eligible, but it's still tough to tell who he is. … Blue Jays outfielder Jose Bautista batted second in the lineup Saturday and Sunday, and went 4-for-7 with two home runs and two walks in the role. He's owned in all leagues and was on my buy-low list to start with, but if this is what gets him going, so be it. … Boston Red Sox outfielder Shane Victorino left Sunday's game early (ribs, back) after running into the outfield wall. Victorino is off to a nice start this year -- he's hitting better than .300 -- and is capable of 30 steals. Any longer-term injury could aid Mike Carp, who is hitting .351 in limited action. … Perhaps you want no part of Rays right-hander Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona), but he had a decent week, allowing three earned runs in 12 innings in two starts, including Sunday's win. Hernandez has a 1.24 WHIP and better strikeout rate than ever. He's certainly interesting for deeper formats.
Box score bits (NL): Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Brandon McCarthy stymied the Philadelphia Phillies over eight shutout innings Sunday, allowing seven singles and no walks. It was McCarthy's best outing of the season. He's still too hittable and not missing enough bats for 10-team formats, but he's a fair buy-low option overall. … McCarthy should have won, but closer Heath Bell was dreadful, giving up four hits and two runs in the ninth inning. There's little indication David Hernandez will get the next save chance, but it's certainly no surprise that Bell would have problems. … We know Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez tends to be all or nothing with home runs and strikeouts, but Sunday's double was his first of the year! He also singled and knocked in a run. Alvarez has another 50 points of batting average growth, and remains worth owning. … Miami Marlins outfielder Justin Ruggiano, who I might have mentioned I was fond of a few times back in March, hit his seventh home run Sunday. He's hitting only .230, and might not top .250, but he's also on pace for 30 home runs and 21 stolen bases. I think we'd all take those stats.

 

[HacheMan]

Dee Gordon improved, could stick

Eric Karabell

Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Dee Gordon got the call to replace injured Hanley Ramirez in the big leagues barely a week ago, and while it’s a bit premature to call the lanky speedster a finished product or safe to keep his starting role the rest of the season, the early returns are promising. Gordon singled and stole his fourth base in eight games Sunday afternoon in a win over the Miami Marlins. He enters Monday hitting .269, which isn’t particularly noteworthy or telling (it’s only 30 at-bats), but the best sign of all are the walks, because for him it’s a potential game-changer.

Gordon has drawn five walks already, which continues a theme he featured at Triple-A Albuquerque, where he drew 14 walks in 25 games while striking out only 17 times. It’s often tough to judge Pacific Coast League statistics, since most of the ballparks are somewhat equivalent to your neighborhood little league parks, but plate discipline doesn’t depend on stadium. A season ago, Gordon wasn’t taking free passes with the Dodgers, and it showed in his paltry .280 on-base percentage. Gordon doesn’t project as a .300 hitter, and strength to drive the ball might always be an issue, but he should at least be getting on base. Fantasy owners want the stolen bases, but it’s quite impossible to steal them when you’re not on base.
Hopefully this new Gordon is legit, because let’s face it, the speed is undeniable. It’s not quite Billy Hamilton speed, but it’s enough to eventually lead all of baseball in stolen bases. Gordon entered 2013 having stolen 56 bases in his first two seasons, over 143 games and 527 at-bats. That’s basically a season. Gordon can steal 56 bases in a single season too, perhaps even this one, assuming he keeps his job and gets on base a little, which is more than reasonable. His weekend home run blast notwithstanding -- he’s no power hitter -- Gordon needs to make contact, get on base however possible and run. Through parts of two seasons, he drew 27 walks against 89 strikeouts. He enters Monday with five walks and six strikeouts. Gordon should be owned in all leagues, and it’s feasible he not only leads the majors in steals, but ends up a top-10 shortstop.
Ramirez doesn’t figure to return from his hamstring injury until June, but when he does return it’s certainly possible he’ll be moving over to third base. The Dodgers are getting embarrassing production from the position. Nick Punto started there Sunday. Dodgers third basemen enter Monday hitting .183, with a .289 OBP and startling .238 slugging percentage. Pitchers are better than this. The overwhelmed Gordon from last season is a huge upgrade, but as long as this Gordon keeps getting on base and running -- and defense isn’t a problem -- he’s not going to be demoted. Ramirez will move to third base so Punto, Juan Uribe and Luis Cruz can return to utility infield duty.
It’s also possible Ramirez balks at this move; why athletes even need to approve a team-mandated instruction is beyond me, but still, it could happen. Gordon is obviously capable of handling second base. Mark Ellis is Gold Glove caliber and he figures to return from his quad injury well before Ramirez returns. Ellis was off to a superficially strong start at the plate. The best Dodgers infield would include Ellis, Gordon and Ramirez playing regularly. There’s little need for fantasy owners to stash Ellis. He’s hitting .342, but let’s be real: his .258 batting average last season is more like it.
The point here is I believe Gordon will keep the shortstop job and threaten to lead the major leagues in stolen bases this season, so add him and enjoy. I’m pleased I stashed him away over Hamilton in a few deeper leagues, sensing the opportunity to play in the majors would come first. Hey, when everyone zigs, it’s often best to zag. Gordon has game, and as long as it includes patience at the plate, I’m all for it.
More Dodgers talk:
• Ramirez is no longer 100 percent owned (98.9 percent), which seems awfully shortsighted. He’s a potential top-5 middle infielder and can still make a run at 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases the final four months. I’d trade for him before he returns.
• First baseman Adrian Gonzalez has been in and out of the lineup recently with a neck problem, which is annoying since he’s off to a terrific start. Gonzalez homered Friday night and entered Sunday hitting .345 and on pace for 120 RBIs. Of course, Gonzalez did not play Sunday after aggravating the injury Saturday. I’d leave Gonzalez active this week. Perhaps he misses a game or two, but he’s locked in at the plate. I don’t see a 25-homer season pending, but 20-100-.310? Sure.
• Of course, it’s also possible the Dodgers are forced to give Gonzalez a DL stint, looking at the long term. Hopefully the team doesn’t do this Monday night -- for weekly leagues! -- and simply assume Scott Van Slyke can handle regular duty. Van Slyke was called up Friday and fanned as a pinch-hitter, then homered while starting Sunday. His Triple-A numbers were outstanding, with a .397 batting average, nine home runs and 30 RBIs in 34 games, but he’s hit in the minors before. Now 26, Van Slyke should be good enough to keep a bench job, but he’s not worth investing in for fantasy purposes.
• I see much hate around the fantasy community for outfielder Andre Ethier. You know, Ethier has posted a higher OBP and slugging percentage than Matt Kemp so far. I’m not selling low on either of them yet, but I also don’t view Kemp as a top-10 guy the way he’s playing. And as for the third outfielder, the rejuvenated Carl Crawford, he looks terrific. I wouldn’t trade a top-10 outfielder to acquire him yet, though. Look for our mid-May rankings later this week; where the Dodgers outfield places should be interesting. I’ll have Kemp over Crawford, but will my colleagues?
• By the way, right-hander Zack Greinke claims he is going to come off the disabled list to start Wednesday’s game against the Washington Nationals. In daily leagues, I’d activate him right away. Greinke famously broke his collarbone in the Carlos Quentin brawl, and is well ahead of schedule. Yes, there are times when I’m cautious in activating pitchers right off the DL, but with top-20 options, I tend to trust. I also activated Greinke in weekly formats, where the risk is not of a pounding, but that he just doesn’t pitch at all.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Being bullish on Dee Gordon[/h][h=3]Plus, Nolan Arenado deserves more attention; beware of Paul Konerko[/h]
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Apparently, I now like Dee Gordon.

At least that's what the rough draft of our updated top 250 -- the final list is due out Thursday -- suggests. Gordon checked in at 205th overall and as the 124th hitter; Eric Karabell was the only other person to even rank Gordon. Eric, in fact, was especially optimistic, placing Gordon within his top 125 players overall.

To think, one year, one month and 25 days ago I panned Gordon, saying that his free-swinging ways combined with a complete inability to drive the ball threatened to relegate him to career bench/pinch-running duty. I'm evidently the construction workers from "Major League" warming to Gordon in time; to complete this analogy, I suppose the rest of our rankers are the eternally pessimistic Cleveland Indians' grounds crew, and Eric is optimistic manager Lou Brown.

Who's right?

That's the challenging question. Eric's case for Gordon, which you can read here (Insider), is founded upon Gordon's rising walk rate. It's that skills improvement -- Gordon has walked in 11.9 percent of his 160 plate appearances between Triple-A Albuquerque and the Los Angeles Dodgers this season -- that has me warming, but at the same time, the sample remains small and I'm unconvinced his rate will remain that high. After all, we've seen hints of this before: Gordon walked in 9.2 percent of his 131 PAs between spring training and the first two regular-season weeks for the Dodgers in 2012 only to see that rate drop to 4.4 percent in his next 270 PAs (a 65-game span).


But what if Gordon can maintain, say, an 8 percent walk rate or better? It would mean the difference between a .300 and .320 on-base percentage -- keeping in mind that his career OBP is a so-so .301 -- and maybe 15 additional chances to steal. Here's why that matters: Baseball-Reference.com notes that Gordon has 226 career stolen-base opportunities in his big league career and that he has successfully swiped 61 bags, a 27 percent rate. To illustrate how remarkable that percentage is, Michael Bourn, the major league leader in steals since 2011 (Gordon's debut year), has swiped 106 bags in 646 opportunities, a 16 percent rate.

As walks don't matter in traditional rotisserie leagues, beyond their influence on steals opportunities, runs scored and playing time, let's be clear that Gordon is the poster boy for one-category performer. That said, he's probably up with the Dodgers for good, and if that's true and he maintains a better-than-.300 on-base percentage, he's a virtual lock for 35-plus steals from today forward. That would likely pace all major leaguers -- and would make him a clear top-250 player.

Going from players on the lower tiers to one who belongs in the top -- not that the group ranked him as such -- the lack of love for fresh-off-the-DL Curtis Granderson is puzzling. He was one of this week's biggest gainers in my rankings, soaring 26 spots (from 59th to 33rd), and his No. 46 ranking overall in our upcoming top 250 represented the group's most generous placement.

Being that rankings represent a projection period of today through season's end, shouldn't Granderson's original, pre-injury ranking, be restored? His fractured forearm has fully healed and should no longer be an issue, as colleague Stephania Bell noted here and here, and Granderson's 8-for-20, one-homer performance during his five-game rehabilitation stint for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, while irrelevant from a sample-size angle, represented necessary encouragement that he lacks fear of being hit by another pitch.

Granderson might never be a reliable source of batting average, possessing a .246 number during his New York Yankees career (2010-13), but he has averaged 33 home runs and 14 stolen bases per 123 games played for them, that number of games significant because it matches those the Yankees have remaining on the 2013 schedule. He also has a swing brilliantly suited to Yankee Stadium, with its short porch in right field, as his 176 pulled fly balls since 2010 are the most by any left-handed hitter during that span.

There's no reason Granderson can't hit 30 homers from this point forward, and if he sticks as the cleanup hitter following the healthy return of Mark Teixeira, he stands an excellent chance at 75 RBIs to go with them.

Continuing this week's sneak preview theme of our upcoming top 250 rankings, let's examine three more players I prefer to the group:



Nolan Arenado: I was the only one to rank Arenado among my top 250, at least in our initial draft, which makes me wonder whether fantasy owners as a whole have too much fear of failed Colorado Rockies prospects, a group that historically has included such names as Ben Petrick, Ian Stewart and Chris Iannetta. A decade ago, it seemed that everyone instantly hopped the bandwagon of Rockies rookies, assuming that Coors Field would inflate their numbers into the stratosphere, but nowadays we've apparently taken things too far in the opposite direction. Arenado has an advantage none of those other three did: He makes substantially greater contact, his strikeout rate at the Triple-A level just 12 percent and the minors overall 10.2 percent.

Granted, Arenado hasn't been as patient with the Rockies as he should -- his 40 percent chase rate (swing rate at pitches outside the strike zone) is 10th highest among the 332 hitters with at least 50 PAs -- but a return to his disciplined minor league ways should restore his batting average to the .280-.290 range, potentially driving his homer total into the teens. It would help if the Rockies locked him into a firm lineup spot; I'd suggest seventh, at least until he shows he can walk enough to move into the No. 2 spot.

Brandon Moss: One of the best parts of the rankings process is that in addition to provoking conversation about player valuation among readers, it also does so among ourselves; sometimes another ranker can open our eyes to a player's improving skills that we might not have initially seen. Like the Gordon example, Moss was a player whom I warmed to thanks to a debate with Eric Karabell (though this one occurred during spring training). Eric's contention was that, with Chris Carter now in Houston, Moss would no longer be subject to a straight platoon at first base. Sure enough, Moss has started seven of the Oakland Athletics' 13 games against a left-handed starter. While Moss hasn't thrived against lefties (.212/.257/.333), at least the added at-bats have provided him a mild counting-numbers boost.

Moss' power is legitimate, as he has a 49.4 percent fly ball rate and 15.4 home run/fly ball percentage, resulting in a 24-homer pace; he had 47.5, 24.4 and 21 numbers in those categories in 2012. I think he has room to improve, specifically his homer/fly ball rate, meaning 30 homers isn't out of the question.

Chris Carter: Speaking of Moss' former platoon-mate candidate, Carter's trade to Houston also freed him of the threat of a bench seat against right-handers. He has started 25 of 29 Houston Astros games against righty starters and backed up his new team's faith by hitting six of his nine homers against right-handers thus far. As a player destined to strike out greater than 30 percent of the time -- 40 percent isn't out of the question -- Carter will be a massive risk in terms of batting average all year, but there's little doubt he's capable of 30 homers.

Now, let's take a look at three players I like less than the group:



Paul Konerko: I've been consistent on this all year. I think Konerko's second wind has waned and that this decline represents the concluding phase of his productive career. Using mere triple-slash rates isn't exactly fair, because Konerko's .235 BABIP is bound to correct and boost his batting average somewhat, but check his trends in some key peripheral categories:

2012 first half: .195 isolated power, .223 well-hit average, 10.3 BB%
2012 second half: .174 isolated power, .205 well-hit average, 8.3 BB%
2013 to date: .135 isolated power, .164 well-hit average, 6.5 BB%

Whether any of this is the result of the wrist issues that have dogged him for the better part of two years is unclear, but Konerko succumbed to surgery on his wrist in October and hasn't looked like nearly the power source he was during his prime -- or his "second prime" of 2010-11. If he played any other position than the uber-deep first base, I might be more patient with him, but a slew of first basemen -- like the aforementioned Moss and Carter -- could produce just as valuable overall numbers the rest of the year.

Aramis Ramirez: He's another player I shied from this preseason, and I detailed many of my concerns in my "Bleagh!" players list of mid-March. Knee problems dogged Ramirez for much of spring training and resulted in a DL stint of 27 days early in the regular season. He's 9-for-27 with one home run in his first eight games since activation, causing fantasy owners to warm to him once more, but have we forgotten that the Milwaukee Brewers planned to lighten his load somewhat as he works back to full strength? Ramirez has a higher ground-ball rate (45.2 percent, up from 33.6 percent from 2010-12), lower well-hit average (.200, compared to .266 from 2010-12) and higher strikeout rate (20.0 percent, up from 13.7 percent from 2010-12) than he did in the three preceding years, and while the usual small-sample-size caveat applies, he's a 34-year-old more likely to be on the downward curve of his career. Be careful not to race him high into the top 10 players at his position.

Ike Davis: Wow, was I really the least optimistic about Davis, at least from a rankings perspective? Believe it. I've been the one championing the "Ike Davis also had awful numbers a year ago today" case for weeks, but there are still enough hints behind those stats that warrant at least a little long-term concern.

Through May 14, 2012: .168/.227/.311, 28.1 K%, .134 WHAV, 25 Miss%
Through May 14, 2013: .169/.261/.288, 29.9 K%, .109 WHAV, 29 Miss%

Davis' inability to adapt to breaking balls is an adjustment issue. He's now a .185 hitter with a 38.7 percent strikeout rate and 39 percent miss rate on swings against curveballs and sliders during his major league career (2010-12); the major league averages in those categories since 2010 are .217, 29.6 and 31 percent. Granted, he hit 11 home runs off them in 2012, but thus far he has only one.

I still believe Davis can improve in this regard and that he has top-20 first baseman value (21st at the position this week), but some hesitation is warranted.

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[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<CENTER>#</CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prv Rk</CENTER>	<CENTER></CENTER>	<CENTER>#</CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prv Rk</CENTER>
1	Miguel Cabrera, Det	3B1	1		76	Alejandro De Aza, CWS	OF36	90
2	Ryan Braun, Mil	OF1	2		77	Hanley Ramirez, LAD	SS9	82
3	Mike Trout, LAA	OF2	3		78	Everth Cabrera, SD	SS10	86
4	Robinson Cano, NYY	2B1	4		79	Brett Gardner, NYY	OF37	85
5	Carlos Gonzalez, Col	OF3	6		80	Josh Willingham, Min	OF38	69
6	Justin Upton, Atl	OF4	5		81	Ryan Howard, Phi	1B11	80
7	Prince Fielder, Det	1B1	7		82	Shane Victorino, Bos	OF39	81
8	Andrew McCutchen, Pit	OF5	8		83	Lorenzo Cain, KC	OF40	92
9	Evan Longoria, TB	3B2	10		84	Michael Morse, Sea	OF41	75
10	Joey Votto, Cin	1B2	9		85	Norichika Aoki, Mil	OF42	98
11	David Wright, NYM	3B3	12		86	Wilin Rosario, Col	C5	74
12	Troy Tulowitzki, Col	SS1	11		87	Kyle Seager, Sea	3B10	87
13	Bryce Harper, Wsh	OF6	13		88	Howie Kendrick, LAA	2B9	83
14	Adam Jones, Bal	OF7	14		89	Aramis Ramirez, Mil	3B11	93
15	Edwin Encarnacion, Tor	1B3	15		90	Michael Cuddyer, Col	OF43	65
16	Albert Pujols, LAA	1B4	16		91	Brandon Moss, Oak	1B12	97
17	Dustin Pedroia, Bos	2B2	17		92	Brett Lawrie, Tor	3B12	76
18	Paul Goldschmidt, Ari	1B5	21		93	Josh Rutledge, Col	SS11	91
19	Jose Bautista, Tor	OF8	18		94	Melky Cabrera, Tor	OF44	89
20	Buster Posey, SF	C1	19		95	Mark Reynolds, Cle	1B13	107
21	Ian Kinsler, Tex	2B3	20		96	Todd Frazier, Cin	3B13	84
22	Matt Kemp, LAD	OF9	22		97	Mike Napoli, Bos	C6	95
23	Matt Holliday, StL	OF10	23		98	Nick Swisher, Cle	OF45	103
24	Adrian Beltre, Tex	3B4	24		99	Matt Wieters, Bal	C7	88
25	Brandon Phillips, Cin	2B4	25		100	Jose Reyes, Tor	SS12	108
26	Starlin Castro, ChC	SS2	27		101	Nolan Arenado, Col	3B14	110
27	Carlos Gomez, Mil	OF11	42		102	Yonder Alonso, SD	1B14	115
28	Alex Gordon, KC	OF12	29		103	Kevin Youkilis, NYY	3B15	105
29	Jay Bruce, Cin	OF13	28		104	Kendrys Morales, Sea	1B15	104
30	Ian Desmond, Wsh	SS3	32		105	Jed Lowrie, Oak	SS13	102
31	Shin-Soo Choo, Cin	OF14	36		106	Chris Carter, Hou	1B16	120
32	Chase Headley, SD	3B5	33		107	Justin Morneau, Min	1B17	126
33	Curtis Granderson, NYY	OF15	59		108	Rickie Weeks, Mil	2B10	99
34	Billy Butler, KC	1B6	34		109	Andrelton Simmons, Atl	SS14	113
35	Adrian Gonzalez, LAD	1B7	31		110	Justin Ruggiano, Mia	OF46	135
36	Pablo Sandoval, SF	3B6	35		111	Paul Konerko, CWS	1B18	96
37	Mark Trumbo, LAA	OF16	39		112	Coco Crisp, Oak	OF47	147
38	Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos	OF17	30		113	Erick Aybar, LAA	SS15	101
39	Carlos Santana, Cle	C2	37		114	Pedro Alvarez, Pit	3B16	116
40	Carl Crawford, LAD	OF18	44		115	Dan Uggla, Atl	2B11	119
41	Ben Zobrist, TB	2B5	40		116	Alfonso Soriano, ChC	OF48	121
42	Alex Rios, CWS	OF19	47		117	Juan Pierre, Mia	OF49	129
43	Dexter Fowler, Col	OF20	38		118	Miguel Montero, Ari	C8	109
44	Yoenis Cespedes, Oak	OF21	41		119	Neil Walker, Pit	2B12	112
45	Michael Bourn, Cle	OF22	51		120	Nick Markakis, Bal	OF50	114
46	Allen Craig, StL	1B8	49		121	J.J. Hardy, Bal	SS16	124
47	Austin Jackson, Det	OF23	26		122	Ben Revere, Phi	OF51	127
48	Anthony Rizzo, ChC	1B9	53		123	Josh Donaldson, Oak	3B17	131
49	Freddie Freeman, Atl	1B10	48		124	Dee Gordon, LAD	SS17	143
50	Jason Heyward, Atl	OF24	55		125	Jason Kubel, Ari	OF52	111
51	Desmond Jennings, TB	OF25	43		126	Matt Carpenter, StL	2B13	122
52	Jean Segura, Mil	SS4	77		127	Aaron Hill, Ari	2B14	100
53	Jose Altuve, Hou	2B6	57		128	Mark Teixeira, NYY	1B19	128
54	Elvis Andrus, Tex	SS5	46		129	Brian McCann, Atl	C9	134
55	Chase Utley, Phi	2B7	52		130	Domonic Brown, Phi	OF53	132
56	Hunter Pence, SF	OF26	62		131	Brandon Belt, SF	1B20	139
57	Chris Davis, Bal	OF27	50		132	Michael Saunders, Sea	OF54	151
58	Josh Hamilton, LAA	OF28	54		133	Andre Ethier, LAD	OF55	125
59	Giancarlo Stanton, Mia	OF29	61		134	Andy Dirks, Det	OF56	190
60	B.J. Upton, Atl	OF30	45		135	Ike Davis, NYM	1B21	117
61	Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle	SS6	63		136	Salvador Perez, KC	C10	133
62	Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh	3B7	56		137	Danny Espinosa, Wsh	2B15	136
63	David Ortiz, Bos	DH1	60		138	Stephen Drew, Bos	SS18	141
64	Yadier Molina, StL	C3	58		139	Jedd Gyorko, SD	2B16	148
65	Manny Machado, Bal	3B8	73		140	J.P. Arencibia, Tor	C11	140
66	Nelson Cruz, Tex	OF31	66		141	Corey Hart, Mil	1B22	212
67	Joe Mauer, Min	C4	71		142	Matt Joyce, TB	OF57	145
68	Jason Kipnis, Cle	2B8	78		143	Jonathan Lucroy, Mil	C12	130
69	Alcides Escobar, KC	SS7	67		144	Oswaldo Arcia, Min	OF58	191
70	Carlos Beltran, StL	OF32	68		145	Michael Brantley, Cle	OF59	158
71	Jimmy Rollins, Phi	SS8	70		146	Lucas Duda, NYM	OF60	184
72	Angel Pagan, SF	OF33	72		147	Mike Moustakas, KC	3B18	153
73	Martin Prado, Ari	3B9	64		148	Nate McLouth, Bal	OF61	149
74	Starling Marte, Pit	OF34	94		149	Adam LaRoche, Wsh	1B23	192
75	Torii Hunter, Det	OF35	79		150	Will Venable, SD	OF62	152

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