MLB Fantasy News 2013

[HacheMan]

Bits: Josh Rutledge shipped to Triple-A

Eric Karabell

A week ago, Josh Rutledge of the Colorado Rockies was among the top 10 second basemen on ESPN's Player Rater. Now he's on his way to Triple-A Colorado Springs. Talk about a swift fall from grace!

Rutledge, a 23rd-rounder, on average, in ESPN live drafts still ranks above such players as Adrian Gonzalez, Billy Butler, Yoenis Cespedes, Starlin Castro and Michael Bourn on the Player Rater, and remains on pace for 18 home runs, 18 stolen bases and 92 runs scored. However, his lack of plate discipline and defensive struggles earned him the demotion. It's a shame, too, because quite a few fantasy owners are going to need a replacement; Rutledge began Wednesday owned in 95 percent of ESPN standard leagues (that number was already down to 85 percent as of Thursday morning). Rutledge's demotion likely will be a short-term one, but I wasn't high on Rutledge to begin with because he just refuses to embrace the art of drawing even a modest number of free passes. Between Double-A Tulsa and the Rockies last season, he drew 23 walks in 670 plate appearances.

<OFFER>The Rockies are apparently going to give the underwhelming DJ LeMahieu the second base job, but there's nothing to see here from a fantasy perspective. I compare LeMahieu to Chicago Cubs Gold Glover Darwin Barney in that the Rockies are probably better off using him because he's so defensively capable, but offensively, let's just say they'd need to bat him eighth. Of course, he did hit second Wednesday, but I don't see that lasting. I saw a Rockies beat writer compare LeMahieu to longtime big leaguer Jamey Carroll. Optimism abounds!

What has happened to Rutledge points out how different fantasy baseball and real-life baseball can be. In the fantasy world, the five home runs and five stolen bases the athletic Rutledge has delivered make him enticing, but his poor OBP told the larger tale. Combine that with his poor defense and Rutledge has barely been a replacement-level player so far, and for those thinking he just needs to figure out how to hit away from Coors Field, consider that he actually has better road numbers. Alas, the guy is only 24, and this will be his first appearance at Triple-A, so chances are we will see him again soon, and his skill set, while a bit flawed, is enticing nevertheless. In NL-only formats you wait for Rutledge, considering he has hit 13 home runs and stolen 12 bases in as many attempts over 434 big league at-bats. In fact, he could become a 20-homer/20-steal player with a bit more polish.

One of fantasy's more popular sleepers heading into this season has lost his opportunity for now, which is pretty rare if you think about it. It's not as though LeMahieu is Washington Nationals infield prospect Anthony Rendon, a real-life first-rounder and potential future star. And for those wondering whether outfielder Eric Young Jr. will get another chance to play second base and regain that eligibility, forget it. His defense was subpar there in the past, and he's at least usable in the outfield. Young really isn't doing enough at the plate to keep his leadoff job anyway, and when Michael Cuddyer comes off the DL later this week and goes right back into the Rockies lineup -- he was a top-20 overall hitter on the Player Rater when a bulging disk in his neck forced him out -- Young and first baseman Todd Helton each figure to lose playing time.

Box score bits (NL): One might think Pittsburgh Pirates lefty Francisco Liriano is a must-add at this point because his three-start ERA is an even 1.00, and he has fanned 25 batters in 18 innings following Wednesday's impressive seven shutout innings against the Cubs. Just be prepared to dump the guy when he starts walking everyone. Liriano has shut down the Cubs, New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers, all teams with 18 or fewer wins. Next week he gets the Detroit Tigers and a matchup with Justin Verlander. If Liriano dominates there, and avoids command issues, then I'm interested. His ERA has been over 5.00 three of the past four seasons for a reason. … Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley is likely DL-bound today because of an oblique strain. Freddy Galvis will replace him, and while Phillies fans might think he's the next Ryne Sandberg, fantasy owners can ignore him. … Mets top prospect Zack Wheeler pitched five effective innings for Triple-A Las Vegas on Wednesday after missing a start because of a sore shoulder. Wheeler could be a big leaguer in a few weeks, but don't assume he's the next Matt Harvey, either. There is major upside, though. … San Diego Padres rookie Jedd Gyorko homered again Wednesday, his fifth of May. Frankly, this is not surprising news. He should end up with 20-plus home runs.

Box score bits (AL): New York Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda left his Wednesday start early because of a bruised right calf, but he was getting torched anyway. His season ERA remains a solid 2.67, so keep him owned, but remember that he's 38 and injuries happen. … Minnesota Twins Opening Day starter Vance Worley was hammered Wednesday and promptly demoted to Triple-A. Hope you didn't buy in to a guy with average stuff. Rumor is right-handed prospect Kyle Gibson could be promoted soon. If so, he'd immediately become the team's top starting pitcher, but fantasy owners shouldn't drop a top-60 starter to get him. … Speaking of pitchers to avoid, Cleveland Indians right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the most added pitchers in ESPN leagues. On Wednesday, the Tigers shredded him for six runs in four innings. Yes, there is strikeout potential here, but as good as people think his May has been, his ERA for the month is 4.79. Avoid him! … Indians backup catcher Yan Gomes homered again, giving him three this week. He's not a top-20 catcher, but he ranks higher on the Player Rater than Salvador Perez, Ryan Doumit and Jonathan Lucroy, if you need a decent second catcher. … Still avoiding Houston Astros closer Jose Veras? His save Wednesday gave him eight for the season, the same number Jonathan Papelbon and Glen Perkins have.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=3]Can Gerardo Parra keep up the pace?

Eric Karabell


One of the main reasons it was easy to be skeptical about whether Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Gerardo Parra would be able to continue his exceptional season was the competition on his own team. After all, the Diamondbacks figured to use lefty hitting slugger Jason Kubel in left field, while rookie Adam Eaton would get on base and run and handle center field, and Cody Ross wasn’t given an exorbitant three-year contract to merely pinch hit. However, as May winds down none of Arizona's expected starting outfielders are playing a significant role for the team, if any at all, and Parra keeps on producing.
In fact, Parra is doing so well that he’s actually tied for second in all of baseball in WAR (wins above replacement), behind only Cincinnati Reds first baseman/walk machine Joey Votto, and that order was reversed entering Wednesday. Triple Crown threat Miguel Cabrera, incidentally, is tied for fifth, a shade behind Parra, who garners significant value from excellent defense. From a pure fantasy aspect, Parra has been a nice surprise, going from undrafted in most leagues to close to top-20 outfielder status.
The Diamondbacks fell to the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday, with Parra going hitless, but the bigger story might have been the news that Eaton suffered a setback with his strained left (throwing) elbow. Eaton is among the most added outfielders in ESPN standard mixed leagues because his long-awaited return seemed to be roughly a week away, and he’d been reporting no issues on his rehab assignment. Then came the weekend. Eaton, feeling discomfort in the balky elbow recently, couldn’t play, and the team is playing it safe. The MRI results should be announced soon, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Eaton’s UCL tear necessitates Tommy John surgery -- yes, it happens to non-pitchers, as well -- which would unfortunately end his season and any chance of one of my favorite sleepers performing.
Of course, it would also guarantee Parra a bit more job security than he previously had, though the way he’s been hitting -- and fielding, which counts quite a bit toward his WAR rating -- that would have likely taken care of itself. After all, Kubel missed half of April with a quad injury and hasn’t shown the form that resulted in 30 home runs and 90 RBIs last season. Ross singled twice as the cleanup hitter Wednesday but has only one home run and seven extra-base hits, a season after giving the Boston Red Sox 22 long balls and 57 extra-base hits. Eaton hasn’t played at all. The odd Ross signing -- remember, they had Justin Upton in right field previously -- seemed to relegate Parra to fourth outfielder status, but Parra is clearly the better overall player.
As a result, the Eaton news affects Parra in a potentially positive fashion, but the question needs to be asked: Is Parra really this good? He’s owned in nearly all ESPN standard leagues at this point, but it sure seems that his value is predicated on his continuing to hit for a high batting average and scoring many runs. Parra isn’t a power hitter or an effective base stealer, though he is on pace for 14 homers and 14 steals. While his walk rate is up and his strikeouts are down, Parra has never hit double digits in home runs before, even in the minors, and he’s a poor 4-for-10 in stolen-base attempts this year. Parra will retain value for the Diamondbacks with his defense, but offensively he’s not likely to finish among the top 50 outfielders, making him a risky long-term acquisition.
It’s actually not a bad time to buy low on Kubel and Ross, as they have proven their power potential over the years, after all. The team’s leadoff hitter and center fielder Wednesday was A.J. Pollock, but it sure looks like he just can’t get on base consistently, though like Parra, he’s terrific with the glove. Pollock sports a .270 OBP, making the decision to lead him off curious at best. His plate discipline is an issue, as Pollock has walked five times against 29 strikeouts. He might end up with 12 to 15 home runs and midteens in stolen bases as well, just like Parra, but unfortunately he’s more fourth outfielder than emerging offensive star. There isn’t much in the high minors, either, as Alfredo Marte has power potential but was hit in the face by a pitch Monday and could miss considerable time, and speedster Tony Campana is doing little at Triple-A Reno.
Diamondbacks Dirt: Versatile Martin Prado was hitless in four at-bats Wednesday, dropping his already disappointing batting average to .232. The main caveat here is that Prado is a .291 career hitter, and his current BABIP of .244 is well below his career .312 mark. Prado is certainly capable of hitting .300 the rest of the way, and with eligibility at second base, third base and outfield, buy low. … Latest news on second baseman Aaron Hill: His broken left hand should be analyzed next week, with an early-June return possible. Hill was fantasy’s No. 2 second baseman in 2012. … I haven’t given up on catcher Miguel Montero (and his .189 batting average) in multi-catcher formats, but I can’t make much case to be patient in one-catcher standard leagues. … Right-hander Ian Kennedy is not only showing few signs of being the guy who won 21 games two years ago, but his numbers pale in comparison to last year (4.02 ERA). It’s not a matter of velocity. Some progress is likely, but Kennedy isn’t a lock for the top 60 starting pitchers anymore. … Earlier in the week, through the magic of video, I detailed how lefty Patrick Corbin (easily the team’s top starting pitcher) is the definition of a sell-high choice. Check it out. … Injured closer J.J. Putz (elbow) probably won’t be re-examined for another week at least, but I’m skeptical that we'll see him pitching anytime soon. Stand-in closer Heath Bell has only one bad outing in his past seven, but will probably get a long leash even when he struggles, which he will since lefties are hitting .419 off him with a 1.196 OPS. Bell would be better served as a right-handed specialist, but the Diamondbacks already have that in Brad Ziegler.



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[HacheMan]

Gausman profile; top 10 prospects

By Jim Callis | Baseball America

It's no surprise that the Orioles turned to a former No. 4 overall draft pick to fortify their rotation. But instead of Dylan Bundy getting the call, it was Kevin Gausman.

Baltimore signed Gausman for $4.32 million last July, a year after landing Bundy with a $6.225 million contract. Bundy reached the majors as a 19-year-old last September, capping a spectacular pro debut, but he has yet to pitch this year after coming down with stiffness in his elbow.

Gausman, a product of Louisiana State, pitched just 15 innings after signing last summer but made the jump to Double-A for his first full pro season. He had no trouble there, going 2-4 with a 3.11 ERA and an outstanding 49 strikeouts and 5 walks in 46 1/3 innings over eight starts.


After growing tired of Jake Arrieta's inconsistency, the Orioles replaced him in their rotation with Gausman, who made his big league debut Thursday against the Blue Jays. He showed off his two best pitches in his first inning of work, striking out Edwin Encarnacion with a 97 mph fastball and Adam Lind on an 85 mph changeup.

Gausman, who usually works in the mid-90s with his four-seam fastball, reached 99 mph with his heater last night. The knock on him as an amateur was that he lacks a quality breaking ball, but he has made significant strides with his slider, and it should be at least an average pitch for him. His command and control are two more assets, although he was a little too pumped up against Toronto and took the loss after giving up seven hits, two walks and four runs in five innings.

While he has been overshadowed by Bundy, Gausman has the same ace potential. No one in Baltimore's rotation can match his stuff, and while he might have ups and downs, like all rookie pitchers, he has plenty of fantasy upside. Assuming he stays with the Orioles for the rest of the season, he could win roughly 7-10 games with a 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 100 strikeouts.

And with that, here is this week's top 10 fantasy prospects for 2013:

[h=3]1. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals (Last week's rank: 4)[/h]
Season totals: .330 AVG/.473 OBP/.625 SLG, 6 HR, 24 RBIs, 1 SB in 32 games at Double-A Harrisburg.
Update: Even after hitless performances in his past two starts, Rendon is leading the Eastern League in on-base percentage and slugging. He's getting about one game per week at second base, an ominous sign for big leaguer Danny Espinosa, who is batting just .163/.196/.291 while dealing with a torn rotator cuff.
Prognosis: An outstanding defender at third base, Rendon has played only five games at second base as a pro. But the Nationals are slogging around with a 24-23 record, 4 1/2 games out of a playoff spot as of today, and they can't afford to wait much longer for Espinosa to pull out of his slump.

[h=3]2. Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians (Last week's rank: 1)[/h]
Season totals: 2-0, 3.23 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 33 K's in 30 2/3 IP (five starts) at Triple-A Columbus.
Update: In what has become a recurring theme for Bauer this season, he battled the strike zone again in his most recent start (Sunday). Though he got the win, he gave up five walks in six innings and threw just 55 of 101 pitches for strikes.
Prognosis: The Indians surprisingly lead the American League Central, and plugging Bauer into the middle of their rotation would help their postseason cause. If he can start attacking the strike zone, at worst he would be Cleveland's No. 3 starter behind Justin Masterson and Zach McAllister.

[h=3]3. Nick Franklin, 2B/SS, Seattle Mariners (Last week's rank: 5)[/h]
Season totals: .318/.442/.477, 4 HR, 20 RBIs, 7 SB in 31 games at Triple-A Tacoma.
Update: The Mariners began the shakeup of the American League's worst offense when they demoted Jesus Montero to Triple-A on Thursday. The next former uber-prospect to make the trip to Tacoma could be Dustin Ackley, who sports a ghastly .542 OPS, a full 377 points worse than Franklin's OPS at Triple-A.
Prognosis: A first-round pick in the same 2009 draft in which Ackley went No. 2 overall, Franklin has on-base ability and good pop for a middle infielder. He could take over for Seattle's offensively challenged shortstops (Brendan Ryan, Robert Andino), but he's a better fit defensively at second base and could pave the way for moving Ackley to the outfield.


[h=3]4. Zack Wheeler, rhp, New York Mets (Last week's rank: 8)[/h]
Season totals: 3-1, 3.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 49 K's in 48 1/3 IP (nine starts) at Triple-A Las Vegas.
Update: Wheeler got plenty of good news over the past week. After missing a start because of mild shoulder inflammation, he returned to the mound Wednesday and worked five innings (67 pitches) to collect his third consecutive victory. A Mets official told the New York Post that the club plans to call up Wheeler after two or three more Triple-A starts, and that he might already be in New York if not for his brief shoulder issue.
Prognosis: The Mets don't have much to be excited about on days when Matt Harvey doesn't pitch. Wheeler can change that, though he probably won't provide a lot of wins because the Mets' offense won't offer much run support.

[h=3]5. Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays (Last week's rank: 3)[/h]
Season totals: .242/.337/.385, 5 HR, 28 RBIs in 42 games at Triple-A Durham.
Update: Myers hit his fifth homer of the year last night. That was a rare highlight for him in May, as he has batted just .183/.277/.296 this month.
Prognosis: The Rays' outfield situation is stabilizing, and Myers' bat is not. He hasn't found his power after hitting 37 homers last year, and what once seemed like an imminent call-up has been placed on hold.

[h=3]6. Kyle Gibson, SP, Minnesota Twins (Last week's rank: 9)[/h]
Season totals: 3-5 record, 3.25 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 46 K's in 52 2/3 IP (nine starts) at Triple-A Rochester.
Update: Gibson has thrown nine-inning shutouts in two of his past three outings and took a no-hitter into the eighth inning Sunday. He struck out eight and needed just 93 pitches to go the distance.
Prognosis: The Twins removed Pedro Hernandez from their rotation and replaced him with Samuel Deduno. Gibson is the better long-term solution, and he'll likely get the call once he passes the projected super-two arbitration cutoff in early June.

[h=3]7. Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Last week's rank: 2)[/h]
Season totals: 3-2 record, 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 35 K's in 48 IP (nine starts) at Triple-A Indianapolis.
Update: Cole has struggled in his two most recent starts, surrendering a season-worst three homers in the first outing and a season-worst eight runs in the second. He hit 98 mph last Sunday in a prospect pitching matchup against Allen Webster (Boston Red Sox prospect), but he lacked command in an 11-3 loss.
Prognosis: The Pirates would be a wild-card team if the season ended today, and they're getting effective work from all five members of their rotation. Cole has more upside than any of them -- really, more upside than any pitcher in the minors -- though his call-up will have to wait until he can start placing his pitches where he wants to.

[h=3]8. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: 10)[/h]
Season totals: .246/.304/.341, 2 HR, 13 RBIs, 24 SB in 43 games at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: Hamilton's overall numbers aren't impressive, but his steals definitely are, and he has batted .286/.330/.374 in May. The Reds are in a three-team dogfight in the National League Central while getting little production from their left fielders.
Prognosis: If he continues to hit, Cincinnati could upgrade its offense and defense by putting Hamilton in center field and shifting Shin-Soo Choo to left. Hamilton is easily capable of stealing 10 or more bases per month in the big leagues.

[h=3]9. Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: 7)[/h]
Season totals: .317/.351/.480, 4 HR, 20 RBIs, 5 SB in 31 games at Triple-A Memphis.
Update: Taveras hasn't played since May 12, when he hurt his right ankle on a steal attempt, though he has taken batting practice and shagged fly balls. The Rangers have promoted Jurickson Profar, so even while not playing, Taveras has inherited the title of the best prospect in the minors.
Prognosis: When he returns to full health, there's little doubt that Taveras could step into the Cardinals lineup and produce immediately. But he's going to have to wait for an injury to Matt Holliday, Jon Jay or Carlos Beltran to get the opportunity to show what he can do.

[h=3]10. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: 3-0 record, 0.90 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 25 K's in 20 IP (four starts) at Double-A Mobile; 2-0 record, 1.26 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 43 K's in 28 2/3 IP at high Class A Visalia (five starts).
Update: The Diamondbacks planned for Bradley to spend most of the year in high Class A because he's just 20 and his command still needed a lot of work. But the No. 7 overall pick in the 2010 draft blazed through the hitter-friendly California League in just five starts, and he has been even better since his promotion to Double-A. A University of Oklahoma quarterback recruit who signed for $5 million, he's one of the few minor leaguers with the stuff to compare to Cole's. Bradley has a 93-98 mph fastball, a knee-buckling curveball and a sinking changeup, and he has cut his walk rate from 5.6 per nine innings in 2012 to 3.3 this year.
Prognosis: Arizona doesn't have an obvious opening in its rotation, and Daniel Hudson is just about back from Tommy John surgery. But none of the Diamondbacks' starters have an arm as electric as Bradley's, and he'll force his way to the majors if he keeps pitching like this.
Called up (with last week's rank): Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers (6).

 

[HacheMan]

Closer Report: Sell high on Grilli, Perez?

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Team performance certainly plays some role in analyzing potential save totals, especially if you're in the business of selling high and buying low, which fantasy owners should be. Some big league teams are off to better starts than others, but if you think the second half won't be as kind, well, then the closer's value should take a hit. The following won't please the long-suffering fans of the Cleveland Indians and Pittsburgh Pirates, and I certainly hope they remain contenders into mid-September, but we went through this last year as the closers for these teams were far less valuable after the All-Star break.

As such, it's perfectly reasonable to consider moving Chris Perez and Jason Grilli while they're hot, especially in Grilli's case; he's the major league leader in saves, a fickle category to begin with. Sure, it's possible that these two franchises separated by a leisurely car ride -- I wholeheartedly recommend checking out their home stadiums, as I did last summer on consecutive days -- will continue to play terrific baseball all through the summer, but what if they don't?

<OFFER>Last year the Indians and Pirates were first-half darlings to some extent and their closers were, not surprisingly, benefactors of this success, ranking fourth and fifth in total saves with 24 and 23, respectively, and earning trips to the All-Star Game in Kansas City. After this date, however, their teams struggled, and it showed in the save totals. Before the break, they combined for 47 saves. After the break, they totaled only 28, neither ranking among the top 17 in the category from July 10 onward.

Frankly, Grilli would be a sell-high choice even if the Pirates do win the NL Central. After closing out the Chicago Cubs on Thursday afternoon, he's on pace for 65 saves, which would, of course, break the record of 62 set by the Los Angeles Angels' Francisco Rodriguez in 2008. Grilli also boasts a 1.25 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and ridiculous, Dennis Eckersley-like five walks and 34 strikeouts. Perhaps Grilli really is this awesome at age 36, but it's worth pointing out that the Pirates seem to be overachieving just a bit -- they're a surprising second in the majors in ERA -- and the case can be made that setup man Mark Melancon has been even better.

Melancon, who flamed out for the Boston Red Sox last season, leads everyone in holds, sports a 0.80 ERA and has walked one batter all year versus 26 strikeouts. Grilli doesn't need to hiccup much for Melancon to get chances. Grilli ranks first among all relief pitcher-eligible options on the Player Rater, so unless you think he stays there all year, ahead of Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman and others, by definition he's a sell-high choice.

The issues with Perez are relatively similar, except he ranks 31st on the same Player Rater among relief-eligible pitchers. He has more experience than Grilli in the closer role, but there's actually a better argument that Perez's setup man is a superior pitcher. Vinnie Pestano was considerably better last year, but Perez got the saves. Perez is having a nice season, with a 2.25 ERA and healthy strikeout rate, but he has featured erratic tendencies over the years, and because fantasy owners care most about the saves, consider moving him now before another injury or change in performance gets in the way. Remember, Perez had shoulder issues in March and was expected to miss Opening Day. A few weeks ago, he needed X-rays on his pitching thumb, and barely a week ago had trouble warming up when his shoulder balked and left him unavailable a few days. Just as Grilli's numbers seem tough to repeat through six months, it's the same with Perez, whose cumulative ERA the past two seasons is 3.45. He might save 40 games, but I doubt he does so with a 2.25 ERA.

Grilli and Perez are sell-high options based on their performance and that of their teams, and I'd also throw in Addison Reed of the Chicago White Sox, Edward Mujica of the St. Louis Cardinals, Jim Henderson of the Milwaukee Brewers, Bobby Parnell of the New York Mets, Huston Street of the San Diego Padres and Rafael Betancourt of the Colorado Rockies. Reed has saved 16 games already, while his team has only 21 wins. That rate of saving 76 percent of the team's wins is so generous, it would shatter the record set by Bryan Harvey for the expansion Florida Marlins in 1993, as he saved 45 of the team's 64 wins (see chart below). By the way, Grilli has saved 66 percent of the Pirates' wins, which has been accomplished once in history.

[h=4]Highest percentage of pitcher saves per team wins (entering 2013)[/h]

Pct.	Pitcher	Team	Year	Saves	Team wins
.703	Bryan Harvey	Marlins	1993	45	64
.647	Eric Gagne	Dodgers	2003	55	85
.642	Joakim Soria	Royals	2010	43	67
.639	Mike Williams	Pirates	2002	46	72
.631	Randy Myers	Cubs	1993	53	84

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>

Meanwhile, Mujica is a rookie closer at 29, and while he might keep the role, the Cardinals have shown they'll switch things up even when performance doesn't warrant a change, and setup man Trevor Rosenthal leads all relief pitchers in strikeouts. Plus, that .196 BABIP of Mujica's should go up and hurt his numbers soon. Henderson looks great so far, but it's tough to buy a 0.95 ERA from him, plus the organization continues to discuss John Axford as if his return to the role is somewhat expected, which admittedly seems odd. Parnell has four wins already, tops among relievers, and three more than Cole Hamels. Um, I'll take Hamels there. Parnell is pitching well, but the wins aren't sustainable. Street isn't pitching well, and hasn't fulfilled his annual quota of DL stints yet. And Betancourt is similar to Perez in that his Rockies, while a nice story, are unlikely to sustain playing this well for six months. Plus, Betancourt has been battling a groin injury.

Notes: I'd just forget about owning any Miami Marlins reliever at this point, as Steve Cishek is, at best, sharing the role. Don't be shocked when Chad Qualls gets chances. I mean, if Jose Veras can save games, the brutal Qualls can. … Don't worry about Baltimore Orioles closer Jim Johnson. He's really not pitching that poorly, and you shouldn't have expected 2012 numbers anyway. His strikeout rate, incidentally, is up. It will take far more to him to lose the job to the likes of Pedro Strop and Darren O'Day. … As expected, the Red Sox took the healthy Andrew Bailey and placed him right back in the closer role, before Junichi Tazawa could even get one save. But I say Bailey has at least one more DL stint in him at some point. … Last week I blogged about the Angels' Ryan Madson and how he still isn't healthy enough to pitch anytime soon, and how it raises the value of Ernesto Frieri. Since then, Madson's rehab program was shut down as his elbow remains sore. Frieri looks even better for 30-plus saves, though he couldn't finish Thursday's game, and Robert Coello could. Coello has precious little track record of success, so don't worry about Frieri.

 

[HacheMan]

Breaking down Kevin Gausman's debut

Eric Karabell

So many eyes in the real and fantasy baseball world were on young Baltimore Orioles right-hander Kevin Gausman Thursday night as he made his much-awaited big league debut in Canada against the Toronto Blue Jays. Gausman, the team’s No. 2 preseason pitching prospect behind Dylan Bundy, and No. 26 overall on colleague Keith Law’s board in February, got the call after a mere eight starts at Double-A Bowie (3.11 ERA, 49 strikeouts in 46 1/3 innings) but was deemed ready. It also didn’t hurt that the Orioles desperately needed rotation help, and hey, a quick promotion worked with Manny Machado a year ago, didn’t it?
Gausman reminds me a bit of New York Mets top prospect Zack Wheeler in build (each is 6-foot-4, roughly 185 pounds) and stuff, as they seem to effortlessly hit the mid-90s on their fastball and touch 98 mph, and they have the nasty off-speed stuff to thrive as well. Gausman looked strong through three innings against the Blue Jays, permitting two hits and missing bats, but his command wasn’t perfect. Then things fell apart in the fourth inning as Jays hitters squared him up. Adam Lind and J.P. Arencibia doubled to lead to two runs, and in the fifth inning, two more runs scored when Arencibia followed a Lind single with a long home run. Arencibia does have 11 home runs, after all, but also an incomprehensible two walks and 55 strikeouts in 165 at-bats. Gausman didn’t need to challenge him, but his command should improve and he’ll get wiser with experience.

That was Gausman’s night, a mixed bag of sorts and 89 pitches, 58 of them for strikes. Gausman certainly didn’t look overwhelmed on a night when he had every reason to be. The fastball velocity is one thing, but his changeup is so tremendous that he’ll pile on the strikeouts. The slider might be a bit of a work in progress, but the Orioles are doing the right thing. There’s next to no upside with Jair Jurrjens or Steve Johnson, and this Freddy Garcia situation is suboptimal. Gausman’s final line doesn’t seem special, but you had to see how it happened. Don’t be the fantasy owner who cuts him so quickly; Gausman is perhaps the most-added pitcher over the past 48 hours, but keep the 22-year-old and give him another month of starts to see what he does. This isn’t like Tony Cingrani of the Cincinnati Reds, when eventual demotion was expected; Gausman is a better prospect, and the Orioles don’t possess great rotation depth. His next outing is scheduled to be a short bus ride south against the Washington Nationals on Tuesday, and then perhaps the following Sunday at home against Miguel Cabrera and the Detroit Tigers. OK, so the Tigers game is potentially scary for anyone, but the Nationals matchup, go for it! Only two teams have scored fewer runs.
It’s premature to call Gausman a top-60 starting pitcher for 10- or 12-team standard leagues, but if your last pitcher is nothing special, like Chris Tillman, Phil Hughes, Bronson Arroyo or Rick Porcello (stop adding him!), make the move. There’s significant strikeout and WHIP upside pending, even if the occasional mistake pushes the ERA up into the 4s. I wouldn’t drop the likes of Gausman’s Thursday night foe Brandon Morrow, or Jonathan Niese, Jeremy Hellickson or Josh Johnson to acquire him, but Gausman certainly has top-20 upside in time, even if that is 2014 or later. It’s still worth taking a look.
Box score bits (AL): While most fantasy owners had enough a month ago, the Seattle Mariners finally demoted “catcher” Jesus Montero to Triple-A Tacoma Thursday, where he is expected to mainly handle first base. Montero is borderline unplayable behind the plate, and he hasn’t done much at the plate either, hitting .208 sans power, which is the bigger issue. Hey, at least if Montero hits, he’ll be catcher eligible through 2014 as well! … The fellow Montero was famously dealt for, incidentally, is on the mend from major shoulder problems and threw a five-inning simulated game Thursday. I don’t see much reason to stash right-hander Michael Pineda away for a 2013 rainy day, but the New York Yankees seem to believe he can help them by the All-Star break. I’m skeptical, since he last pitched in the majors in 2011, but obviously we’ve seen the upside. … Morrow certainly didn’t shine Thursday, earning the win despite six runs allowed in seven innings, but at least he was throwing strikes. Three of them were hit over the fence, too. Morrow is owned in roughly half of ESPN’s leagues, which I think remains too low based on his career strikeout figures, but I admit he doesn’t look the same these days. … Minnesota Twins outfielder Josh Willingham looked like his old self Thursday, bashing a pair of home runs. Willingham is owned in only 85 percent of leagues, but the 35 home runs from last year weren’t a fluke. Plus, his walk rate and fly ball rate are up. Buy low, quickly. … Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout homered and stole a base Thursday, becoming the first player in baseball to reach double digits in each. It’s still May. Regression? Well, I don’t see it.
Box score bits (NL): While it’s clear Chicago Cubs right-hander Edwin Jackson has pitched in some bad luck so far, that 6.11 ERA after Thursday’s drubbing in Pittsburgh just stares back at all of us in deeper leagues. Jackson’s xFIP is 3.66. I know it might be painful, but he’s striking people out, and patience is warranted. … Pirates leadoff hitter Starling Marte singled twice to start rallies, stole a base and scored two runs, and he’s hitting an impressive .310. Plus, he also drew a walk. It was his first since May 12, and his second game all month with a free pass. Look, Marte’s great, but he’s not hitting .310 over six months with this kind of plate discipline.

 

[HacheMan]

Orioles have high hopes for Kevin Gausman

By Matt Kremnitzer | ESPN.com

Things started out well enough for Orioles right-hander Kevin Gausman in his highly anticipated major league debut Thursday in Toronto. Through three scoreless innings, the 22-year-old phenom struck out three, walked one and allowed two singles.

Then the wheels started to fall off. After back-to-back doubles to begin the bottom of the fourth, a bunt single and a walk, Gausman had allowed a run and was faced with a bases-loaded, no-out jam. He then fell behind 3-0 on the count to Emilio Bonifacio, but Gausman got Bonifacio to hit a sacrifice fly to center field (thanks to a generous strike-one call). He then retired the next two batters to escape the jam, but the Blue Jays weren't done. In the fifth, J.P. Arencibia hit a two-run home run on an inside fastball, giving the Jays a 4-3 lead. Gausman finished the inning, but his night was done after that.

His final pitching line went as follows: 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 SO on 89 pitches, as the Blue Jays went on to win 12-6. So, yeah, it wasn't a great outing, but it's not hard to see why the Orioles promoted Gausman in the first place. Gausman, who was ranked 26th in Keith Law's preseason top 100 prospects list, has an outstanding repertoire that includes a mid-90s fastball, an outstanding changeup (his best pitch) and a slider that he's been working to improve since entering Baltimore's farm system. He occasionally throws the slider at two different speeds, and when thrown harder it can resemble a cutter.

On Thursday, Gausman utilized all of his pitches, including a few fastballs that touched 98 and 99 mph and several impressive changeups. But he will need to demonstrate better command to keep hitters off balance. It's one thing to blow minor league hitters away by getting ahead and then throwing pitches that are clearly outside the strike zone. But in the majors, pinpoint accuracy will make filthy offerings that much more difficult to deal with. Still, it was Gausman's first start, and it's not uncommon for a pitcher with so little minor league experience to need to command his pitches better.

It's basically a given that Gausman will receive a second start (and more), and he definitely should. The Orioles could have gone in a few other directions instead of promoting him. They could have given Jair Jurrjens another start, recalled Zach Britton or Steve Johnson, or gone with Jake Arrieta or T.J. McFarland. Granted, those aren't necessarily very good options, but the O's didn't have to call up Gausman. But Orioles manager Buck Showalter and executive vice president Dan Duquette wanted to give the youngster a shot, and you'd think they want to see how he performs as the team's fifth starter, at least for a handful of outings -- and preferably for the next few months.

Many Orioles fans expected to see Gausman in Baltimore at some point in 2013, but not in May. If not for the injuries to Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez, the O's probably wouldn't have made this decision so early. Chen is scheduled to begin rehabbing a strained right oblique muscle soon, but he's still at least a few weeks away from returning. And Gonzalez only just came back from a blister on his right thumb on Tuesday. But because of Arrieta's previous ineffectiveness, Freddy Garcia is currently in the rotation, and he has not been good. Garcia has a 4.84 ERA in 22.1 innings, and he's barely striking anyone out (3.22 K/9) and has already allowed six home runs. Since Gonzalez is back, there's no need to have Jurrjens in the rotation (he was recently optioned back to Triple-A Norfolk), and when Chen returns, he'll likely take Garcia's spot in the rotation.

As the Orioles demonstrated when they surprisingly promoted Manny Machado last August, they're not afraid to give their talented young players a chance if they can help the team win games. Showalter said as much on Wednesday. Machado solidified third base and helped the Orioles get to the postseason last year. And now, the O's are hoping Gausman can at least pitch decently for however many starts they decide to give him. They don't need him to dominate, but they do need him to perform better than the rest of their fringe starters. Overall, the Orioles' rotation, which has now used 11 different starting pitchers, has been underwhelming. Heading into Thursday, Baltimore ranked 12th in the American League in ERA (4.73), 14th in K/9 (6.11) and 11th in BB/9 (3.40).

But Gausman could help to change that. He was talented enough for the Orioles to select him fourth overall in last year's draft, and they believed he was advanced enough to only pitch in 15 combined innings in their low- and high-A affiliates before promoting him to the next level. Starting the year at Double-A Bowie in April, Gausman overwhelmed hitters in 46.1 innings, striking out 49 batters and walking just five. He won't replicate those fantastic numbers in the majors, but the O's are hoping he can at least add something to a rotation that could use a shot in the arm.

 

[HacheMan]

Injury report: More big names hit the DL

Stephania Bell


Every Monday in this space, we'll provide updates on a variety of players to help you make your weekly lineup decisions. We'll specifically try to hit the players who are day-to-day, have just gone on the DL or are ready to return, so that you can better decide whether you can count on them or not.

All projected return timelines should be considered fluid.


[h=3]Hitters[/h]
Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Yankees (placed on DL May 25; expected to miss at least a month): When it comes to injuries this season, if the Yankees didn't have bad luck, they wouldn't have any luck at all. Granderson, whose season finally got under way just a few weeks ago, is now out for at least a month with another fracture.

Two hit-by-pitches have resulted in fractures for Granderson, the first a broken right radius (forearm bone) just above the wrist, and now a broken left fifth metacarpal (the long bone of the hand, at the base of the fifth (pinkie) finger). The latest incident occurred Friday night when Granderson absorbed the impact of a pitch to his left knuckle in the fifth inning. In an almost eerie forewarning of this event, Granderson spoke to the Yankees' website just weeks ago during his rehab assignment (from the first fracture) about not fearing the inside pitches. "There's going to be pitches inside, I'm going to get hit again, but you got to stay in," Granderson said. In this case, he stayed in until he was forced out, literally, because of injury.

If there's any good news here, it's that it appears this fracture, like the first, will not require surgery. Broken bones typically require four to six weeks to allow sufficient healing to permit return to play; if Granderson's finger shows good early callus formation (bone healing) and he can grip the bat effectively, his timetable should fit right in that timeframe. That said, he might have to encase his fingers, hands and forearms in bubble wrap when he steps to the plate to get through the rest of the season.


Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals (day-to-day): Add bursitis to the list of Harper's aches and pains resulting from crashing into walls, but don't expect it to land him on the disabled list if he can help it. Harper's knee bothered him enough to warrant an MRI, which came back clean, according to manager Davey Johnson. The Washington Post reports Harper will be sidelined for several days, although he may be utilized as a DH against Baltimore later in the week. One thing is certain, though: Harper has no intention of changing anything about the hard-nosed way he plays baseball. These intermittent minor injuries have threatened his status for a couple of games here and could be an ongoing challenge for Harper and his fantasy owners.

Shane Victorino, OF, Boston Red Sox (placed on DL retroactive to May 21): Victorino had been battling back spasms in recent weeks yet managed to avoid a DL stint. Not now. This time it's his left hamstring that's giving him fits, and Victorino will be forced to rest until he can run without limitation. Interestingly, Victorino's hamstring started to bother him just days after returning to the lineup following missed time for his back. If these two issues are related, which would not be surprising, this could turn out to be intermittently problematic throughout the season.

Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Red Sox (placed on DL May 24): Perhaps back spasms are contagious in Boston. Middlebrooks left Thursday's game early due to back spasms, something manager John Farrell told reporters might have begun Wednesday night as Middlebrooks came out of the batter's box. The good news is that Middlebrooks said, according to ESPN Boston, that as of Saturday he was already feeling improvement. "I do [think I'll come off the DL when eligible]," he said, adding, "I feel better than yesterday, so if I'm already making steps forward, that's where I want to be." This looks to be a minor episode.

Jayson Werth, OF, Nationals (placed on DL retroactive to May 3): When Werth was first placed on the disabled list, the thought was that he would miss the minimum amount of time. After all, when the decision was made to formally move him, he had already missed eight games and seemed to be faring better. But if there's anything we know about hamstring injuries, it's that they are among the least predictable of all soft-tissue ailments. It is often not until the athlete tests the leg with full-speed sprinting activities that lingering issues make themselves known. In Werth's case, he experienced discomfort when breaking out of the batter's box, according to Amanda Comak of the Washington Times. The persistent discomfort led to an MRI, which manager Davey Johnson told reporters was "alarming." Consequently, Werth's timetable has been extended with a new target date of June 3, according to general manager Mike Rizzo (via the Washington Post). It's worth reiterating, however, that hamstrings remain unpredictable. Let's see what Werth does this week in his workouts before counting on a Monday return.

Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies (placed on DL May 23): Utley's knees haven't really been a topic of discussion this season since they haven't seemed to limit him thus far. Now, however, Utley is dealing with a different type of injury issue: a strained right oblique. The Phillies report it as a Grade 1 or minor strain, and the move to the DL reflects their desire to not allow it to worsen. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. offered a timetable of 2-4 weeks, which is certainly reasonable, adding, "We do believe and hope that Chase will be ready to play in Philadelphia within 15 days." The average missed time for an oblique strain in a hitter runs right around a month, but the most mild forms have allowed an athlete return after the minimum stay (such as Freddie Freeman earlier this season). Although there is some optimism Utley will be back after the 15 days, there's no reason for the team to rush him, especially this early in the season.

Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Minnesota Twins (placed on 7-day concussion DL May 22; expected to return Wednesday): Plouffe took a knee to the head while sliding last Tuesday and was subsequently placed on the concussion DL. Concussions are the least predictable of all injuries, but based on Plouffe's fairly swift recovery so far, it appears the Twins will get him back the first day he's eligible to return. According to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Plouffe passed his neurocognitive (ImPACT) tests Thursday and participated in cardio work Friday, which shows progression. If he is able to perform baseball-related activities early this week without any recurrence of symptoms, it appears he will be cleared to rejoin his team's lineup Wednesday.

Wilkin Ramirez, OF, Twins (placed on 7-day concussion DL May 26): Another collision, another concussion for a Twins player. Unlike the knee to the head Plouffe sustained, Ramirez was concussed making a defensive play in the outfield Saturday when he crashed into teammate Josh Willingham. According to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Ramirez was not originally on board with the DL designation, that is until he experienced queasiness during the team's flight home Sunday. Good job by the Twins, who certainly have had experience with complex concussions (think former AL MVP Justin Morneau). Now it will be a matter of waiting to see how Ramirez progresses throughout the next week.


[h=3]Pitchers[/h]
Chris Perez, RP, Cleveland Indians (placed on DL May 27): Perez is sidelined with right shoulder soreness, and he was placed on the disabled list for the first time in his major league career early Monday. He was forced to leave Sunday's game against the Red Sox early because of the shoulder, according to ESPN.com. "It kind of pinched on me and sent a little pain down my arm," Perez said. While any shoulder issue is of concern for a pitcher, this doesn't yet have the sounds of something major. It appears Perez at least needs some down time to let the symptoms settle, and he can then hopefully return to throwing. Hopefully.

Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox (day-to-day, expected to start at some point this week): Buchholz was scratched from his Monday start after irritating his right acromioclavicular (AC) joint (the point of the shoulder), something he attributes to falling asleep on his side with his arm wrapped around his young daughter. The impression is that this is just a simple matter of delaying his start to account for the soreness, preventing him from compensating and potentially creating another problem. According to ESPNBoston.com, the plan is for Buchhholz to play catch Monday, and he expects to pitch again later this week.


Jim Henderson, RP, Milwaukee Brewers (placed on DL May 25): Henderson left Friday night's game in the ninth inning after straining his right hamstring while trying to field a ground ball. After visiting with the team doctor Saturday, the decision was made to place Henderson on the disabled list, which would allow him some additional time off to recover. It sounds like it will be a closer-by-committee situation in Milwaukee until Henderson is ready to return, whether that's in two weeks or slightly longer.

Chris Sale, SP, Chicago White Sox (day-to-day): Mild tendinitis in his posterior throwing shoulder was the diagnosis for Sale. While any inflammation in a thrower's shoulder is a cause for some concern, the Sox immediately indicated they expected Sale to return for his next start after being scratched last Wednesday. Those plans were confirmed after Sale played catch in the outfield prior to Saturday's game. Afterward, Sale said, "It felt a lot better than I actually thought it would be. Everything is on track, and I will be ready to go Tuesday." He was scheduled to follow up Saturday's session with a Sunday bullpen, and there has been no word of any setback.

If Sale returns without incident, there will be a big sigh of relief from his fantasy owners. But the specter of concern has been raised once again -- last year, there were some questions about whether he was dealing with an elbow injury in May, followed by a reported dead arm period in July -- which must remain in the back of our minds. The bigger question will be whether or not Sale can get through the remainder of the season without this turning into something more substantial.

David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays (placed on DL May 16): Triceps tightness originally put Price on the DL, but nobody on the Rays seemed overly concerned. Manager Joe Maddon said he did not expect Price to miss more than two or three starts. Apparently there's now reason to be at least a little more concerned. Despite Price's assertions that his arm feels "great," he hasn't yet begun to throw. According to the Tampa Bay Times, playing catch hopefully will begin within the next few days, but Price will have to proceed through a throwing progression before returning the rotation, which could take an additional few weeks. So much for him missing only 2-3 starts; now there is no official timetable. Until Price actually starts throwing with effort, it's difficult to gauge whether the slow progress is as a result of the Rays taking a conservative approach with him or because of legitimate concern over the health of Price's arm.

Jaime Garcia, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (placed on DL May 18; done for the season): Garcia tried to get through his shoulder injury without resorting to surgery, and he was successful in doing so for a few starts. His shoulder, like those of so many other pitchers before him, exhibited the wear and tear associated with overhead throwing in the form of labral damage. Eventually that damage made it impossible to throw. After consulting with Dr. James Andrews, Garcia is headed for surgery. It appears his operation will be performed by team physician Dr. George Paletta. The recovery typically requires about six months, meaning if all goes well, Garcia should be ready to return when the season gets under way in 2014.

Ryan Madson, RP, Los Angeles Angels (opened the season on DL; no timetable for return): Every time it seems Madson is making progress in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, he seems to have some form of setback, which delays his return. The most recent incident occurred last week, when Madson developed soreness in his arm while throwing. Instead of beginning an anticipated rehab assignment with Triple-A Salt Lake, Madson has been shut down indefinitely. He is now 14 months post-surgery, and while the timetable for return following this procedure has a range of anywhere from nine to 16 months, the multiple setbacks Madson has experienced are discouraging.

Rarely is the road back to competition entirely uneventful, but Madson seems to have been pushed back with various episodes of discomfort a bit more than usual. At this point, the Angels seem to be getting solid production from Ernesto Frieri in the closer role, and it looks as if he will stay there for the foreseeable future. No doubt the Angels would like to see Madson return to the mound this year, but it has already proven to be slow going. For fantasy purposes, it's probably time to move along.

Jered Weaver, SP, Angels (placed on DL April 8; expected to return Wednesday): It's always nicer to see someone returning from the disabled list as opposed to going on it, especially when it's your team's -- real or fantasy -- ace hurler. Weaver has been out for more than a month after sustaining a non-displaced fracture of his radial head as a result of an awkward fall on the mound. His road to recovery has been uneventful, with the latter part primarily focused on building up his arm strength to the point of being able to reclaim his spot in the rotation. The Angels have announced Weaver will return Wednesday to face the Angels' neighboring rival, the Los Angeles Dodgers, and fantasy owners should have no concerns about starting him right out of the gate.

Ryan Vogelsong, SP, Giants (placed on DL May 21; expected to miss eight weeks): Vogelsong had not one break but two in his right (throwing) hand, an injury sustained while hitting last week. He underwent surgery last week which required five pins to stabilize the fractures, according to manager Bruce Bochy, and he will need time for the bone to show evidence of healing before he can resume throwing. He will then need additional time to regain throwing strength. Given the projected timeline, expect Vogelsong to be out until well after the All-Star break.

 

[HacheMan]

Indians put Chris Perez on DL

ESPN.com news services

The Cleveland Indians placed closer Chris Perez on the 15-day disabled list with right shoulder soreness, the team announced Monday.
It's the first career trip to the disabled list for the 27-year-old Perez. He was scheduled to be examined and have an MRI in Cleveland on Monday.
Manager Terry Francona said right-hander Vinnie Pestano (1-1, 5.25 ERA) would close games for the Indians during Perez's absence.
Left-hander Nick Hagadone was recalled from Triple-A Columbus and is in Cincinnati for the Indians' game against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday afternoon and gave up the winning home run. Going into the game, Hagadone had a 7.20 ERA in 10 innings over 13 combined appearances in his first two stints with the Indians this season.


The right-handed Perez felt stiff while warming up Sunday and was forced out of Sunday's game against the Boston Red Sox with two outs and a 2-1 count on Jacoby Ellsbury. The Boston star followed with a two-run double on Joe Smith's first pitch, capping a four-run, ninth-inning rally that lifted the Red Sox to a 6-5 win.
Perez said after Sunday's game that he had "been dealing with a little thing for the last couple of weeks, but we stayed on top of it and it had been getting better. But [Sunday] it took a couple steps back."
"I don't want to leave that mound at all, especially with the game on the line like that and the team trying to cling to a win," Perez said Sunday. "But you can't pick when you're going to get hurt and unfortunately right now it's a little sore."
Cleveland led 5-2 entering the ninth, when Perez (2-1) walked Dustin Pedroia leading off. David Ortiz doubled, and Mike Napoli and Jarrod Saltalamacchia hit consecutive RBI groundouts.
Walks to Jonny Gomes and Jose Iglesias around Stephen Drew's single loaded the bases. On his third pitch to Ellsbury, Perez felt a pinch in the shoulder. With Francona watching at his side, Perez threw a warm-up pitch that sailed past catcher Carlos Santana.
"It kind of pinched on me and sent a little pain down my arm," Perez said Sunday. "Then I tried to throw another pitch and it just wasn't happening."
Perez is 2-1 with six saves and a 4.32 ERA for the Indians (27-22, second place in the AL Central). He has two blown saves. He has saved more than 30 games each of the past two seasons, including a career-best 39 in 2012.

 

[HacheMan]

Nats: Bursitis in Bryce Harper's knee

ESPN.com news services

Outfielder Bryce Harper was not in the Washington Nationals' lineup for Monday afternoon's 6-2 loss to the Baltimore Orioles and likely will miss Tuesday's game because of soreness in his left knee, manager Davey Johnson told reporters.

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Johnson said before Monday's game that an MRI performed on Harper's knee showed no structural damage but the slugger has been diagnosed with bursitis in the knee.

Team medical director Wiemi Douoguih said the outfielder has inflammation of the bursa sac in front of his knee, which he anticipates clearing up in a couple of days.
"We need to let it calm down," Johnson said, according to USA Today Sports.
Johnson said it's possible Harper could return as the designated hitter on Wednesday when the Nationals play the Orioles in Baltimore.
Harper said Sunday he didn't expect to miss any time and said the knee "probably won't get better until the offseason" and "I've just got to deal with the pain."
Harper aggravated his knee three times Sunday against the Philadelphia Phillies -- with two head-first slides in the first inning and then fouling a pitch off the knee in the third inning. He was limping throughout the game and was removed for a pinch runner after drawing a walk in the seventh.
Harper has already missed three games because of the knee that's been bothersome since he ran into the wall in a game against the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 13, a collision that also left him with a gash in the chin that required 11 stitches.
Harper is hitting .287 with 12 home runs and 23 RBIs.
Johnson criticized Harper on Sunday for his head-first slides.
"If he'd quit head-first sliding, he'd be a lot better off," he said.
Harper, however, differed with the manager on whether it would do any good to stop sliding head-first, saying the knee feels pressure either way.
"If I slid feet-first right now, my knee might pop and not be good," Harper said.
The Nationals on Monday also officially placed left-hander starter Ross Detwiler on the 15-day disabled list with a strained oblique muscle. The move was made retroactive to May 16 in the hopes that he can return to the rotation next Sunday.
Left-handed reliever Xavier Cedeno was recalled from Triple-A Syracuse. Johnson said Sunday he hasn't decided who will start Tuesday in place of Detwiler, who is 2-4 with a 2.76 ERA in eight starts this season.
Meanwhile, catcher Wilson Ramos, out since May 16 with a left hamstring injury, will miss another four weeks, Douoguih said.

 

[HacheMan]

Projecting HRs: Who will hit the most?

Eric Karabell


It might seem crazy to bet against Detroit Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera leading the majors in pretty much whatever he wants to, but when predicting the final home run leaders for 2013, based on what we know so far and what I think will happen, I'm going with Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Edwin Encarnacion. That's not exactly going out on some limb, not like projecting Freddy Galvis to bash 40 home runs, but it does mean I don't expect another Triple Crown this season.

<OFFER>Encarnacion accomplished much in terms of power last season, and while it appears he's off to a slow start in a few categories, I look at him as legit and about to really get going. The man who used to be known as E5 for his defensive, um, prowess is hitting enough home runs, drawing enough walks, hitting enough fly balls, and oh, that BABIP is awfully low, enough to believe the very best is yet to come.

This final week of May in the KaraBlog, I'll be predicting the final leaders in several fantasy categories, and Encarnacion is my choice to finish the 2013 season leading the big leagues in home runs. You might disagree, which is good and worthy of debate, but isn't it just so incredibly easy to pick the obvious guy? Hopefully, the names below will help you to evaluate potential trades or make you feel better about the players you own, or maybe it's just a fun venture with little consequence. Regardless, here are the 10 guys I predict to hit the most home runs for the entirety of 2013, and how many they will hit.

1. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Blue Jays (44 home runs): Legit slugger makes it consecutive 40-homer campaigns, but there is some bad news. He's probably not good for 12 stolen bases again!

2. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Tigers (41): He probably ends up fantasy's top player when he leads with a .354 batting average and 143 RBIs, though. I'd call that a pretty nice season!

3. Jose Bautista, OF, Blue Jays (39): If the Blue Jays finish in last place with this offensive firepower, that's quite the feat. Hey, Joey Bats is back.

4. Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B, Cleveland Indians (39): You know what? He's not on pace for 200-plus strikeouts. The power has always been there, so give him credit for bouncing back nicely.

5. Chris Davis, 1B, Baltimore Orioles (38): Give him credit, too. I wouldn't say I thought his fine 2012 campaign would be a career year, but to be hitting .341 the final week of May is quite a feat.

6. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers (36): Dependable and often overlooked. He hit 36 homers last year, too. Look at his walks and strikeouts. He basically just hits the ball all the time.

7. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels (35): He's so good he increases his home run total from his rookie season. And he steals 34 bases. And bats .294. And helps old ladies cross the street. And wins the WAR title, so to speak. But Cabrera wins MVP again.

8. (tie) Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Oakland Athletics (34): A sleeper pick of sorts, he's off to a tough start, except he's hitting a ton of fly balls. Well, some fly balls do tend to leave stadiums.

8. (tie) Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals (35): Hopefully he's durable, but he's so good at age 20 that it's hard to fathom how great he'll be in two or three seasons. Oh, and I say he takes home NL MVP honors as the Nationals make the postseason.

8. (tie) Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies (35): First-rounder in all fantasy leagues rarely gets discussed as a potential No. 1 pick, but check the Player Rater. He's right there as the best NL fantasy option.

11. (bonus!) Josh Willingham, OF, Minnesota Twins (33): Not a sleeper pick since he did it last season, but a reminder to see if he's out there or in your league. He's taking more walks and hitting many fly balls.

Best of the rest: The above list is mostly American League sluggers, but then again, of last season's top 10 home run hitters, only three were National Leaguers (Ryan Braun, Giancarlo Stanton, Jay Bruce). I see the two healthy ones from that group (Braun, Bruce) reaching 30 home runs still, though there's some concern with strikeout-machine Bruce. … Stanton will play roughly enough to hit a total 21 home runs. … The top middle infielder for power will be Robinson Cano, of course, but Troy Tulowitzki will stay healthy and reach 30 for the third time. Dan Uggla will get there as well for the sixth time in seven seasons. And don't be shocked when Kelly Johnson, of all people, hits a career-high 30 home runs. He's a Tampa Bay Ray. Crazy rejuvenation happens there. … No Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets or St. Louis Cardinals hit 25 home runs, for those thinking of buying low on Matt Kemp, Ike Davis or Allen Craig, among others. … Others I see hitting 30 home runs include Mark Trumbo, Adam Dunn and Evan Longoria. Notably missing from the list is Atlanta Braves outfielder Justin Upton. Yes, he hit 12 long balls in April, but he has slowed down considerably since. He ends up at only 29. Still a great season for a playoff team, though.

Up Wednesday, the stolen base leaderboard!

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Top 25 prospects update[/h][h=3]Oscar Taveras moves to top spot; Byron Buxton makes major leap[/h]
By Keith Law | ESPN Insider

Although it's the height of Rule 4 draft season, I typically reorder my top 25 pro prospects as we approach the end of May each year. This year there isn't as much chaos as there usually is near the top of the rankings, as just one top-10 prospect from this winter is currently in the majors.

We had two late but significant promotions that removed players from consideration for this list -- Jurickson Profar (Texas) and Kevin Gausman (Baltimore). Profar was the top prospect on my offseason list and would have remained so if he were still in the minors right now. Gausman would have moved up significantly from the offseason into the back of the top 10, as he was one of the top pitching prospects in the minors alongside Taijuan Walker and Archie Bradley.

1. Oscar Taveras, OF | St. Louis Cardinals (age 20)
Current level: Triple-A (Memphis)
Preseason ranking: 2

Taveras hasn't had a huge start in Triple-A this year, hitting for average but not power with a poor walk rate, although he won't turn 21 until mid-June, and the raw hit and power tools are beyond any doubt. Whenever the Cardinals have an opening in their outfield, he's ready, as soon as he gets over a recent ankle injury that has had him on the shelf for a couple of weeks.
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2. Byron Buxton, CF | Minnesota Twins (age 19)
Current level: Low Class A (Cedar Rapids)
Preseason ranking: 22

Buxton was the top prospect on my board in last year's amateur draft, and his huge April (.392 BA/.510 OBP/.584 SLG) seemed to justify that ranking in striking fashion. His May hasn't been as torrid, but the raw ability that made him such a commodity out of high school -- 80-grade speed on the 20-80 scouting scale, a very quick bat, a plus arm, the potential for plus-plus defense in center -- is accompanied by more present baseball skill than I realized last spring. He's already 19, so a late-season promotion to high-A wouldn't be too aggressive if he continues to rake.

3. Xander Bogaerts, SS | Boston Red Sox (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Portland)
Preseason ranking: 5

Still just 20 years old, Bogaerts has been playing solid shortstop for Portland with a solid walk rate but isn't yet generating the power expected from his explosive swing. I have little doubt that will come in time and still believe he has a better-than-even chance to stay at short.

4. Christian Yelich, OF | Miami Marlins (age 21)
Current level: Double-A (Jacksonville)
Preseason ranking: 6

A foot injury started his season late, but after a slow couple of weeks, Yelich has returned to mashing, hitting .284/.356/.636 since the start of May with patience and a high contact rate, as well as solid defense in center. He has one of the best swings in the minors and could see the big leagues this summer given what's (not) ahead of him in Miami.

5. Francisco Lindor, SS | Cleveland Indians (age 19)
Current level: High Class A (Carolina)
Preseason ranking: 7

Lindor doesn't quite have the star potential of the guys above him, but he's going to be a very good big leaguer for a very long time. He will play this entire season at age 19 and ranks in the top 10 in the high-A Carolina League in OBP, while providing plus defense at short and value on the bases. He probably won't have the power to end up a superstar, but he could be an Elvis Andrus-type player who's extremely valuable without ever becoming an MVP contender.

6. Miguel Sano, 3B | Minnesota Twins (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Fort Myers)
Preseason ranking: 11

There are so few guys in the minors who project to hit 30 to 35 homers a year -- without some huge caveat such as, "He might strike out 200 times a year" -- that Sano ends up in the top 10 here despite questions about his position (he's still hanging in there at third base) and ultimate size. I don't think he'll be in the majors before late 2014, at the earliest, but the probability of his becoming an above-average big league regular is very high now.

7. Wil Myers, RF | Tampa Bay Rays (age 22)
Current level: Triple-A (Durham)
Preseason ranking: 4

Myers has had one of the worst starts of any player on this list, striking out nearly a third of the time while hitting for very little power, something I discussed in April when I saw Durham play. He's actually been worse since that series, maintaining that low contact rate with declining results when he does put the ball in play.

8. Taijuan Walker, RHP | Seattle Mariners (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Jackson)
Preseason ranking: 9

Walker is repeating Double-A after last year's two-level jump to avoid the hitter-friendly Cal League, and the results have been just adequate so far, although everything that has made Walker a top prospect for two-plus years is intact -- the big fastball, the incredible athleticism, the easy delivery.

He's added a spike curveball this year, a move that makes no sense to me given that he already had a good curveball and that Mike Mussina is the only major league starter I know of who could command a spike. I'd like to see Walker go back to fastball-curveball-change and focus on commanding what he's got.

9. Archie Bradley, RHP | Arizona Diamondbacks (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Mobile)
Preseason ranking: 29

Bradley always had ace-quality stuff, with a fastball up to 98 mph and a curveball from hell, but his control troubles last year appear to be behind him. He has walked just more than 10 percent of hitters this year after walking more than 14 percent of them last year. Diamondbacks fans should be gritty -- I mean, giddy -- over the prospect of a rotation with Bradley, Pat Corbin, Tyler Skaggs, Wade Miley and Daniel Hudson by Opening Day of 2015.

10. Addison Russell, SS | Oakland Athletics (age 19)
Current level: High Class A (Stockton)
Preseason ranking: 10

A minor back injury led to a slow start for Russell, whom the A's promoted aggressively to high-A at age 19 this spring, but he's starting to return to form now, showing solid plate discipline and the ability to square up better quality pitching. He projects as an impact bat at shortstop, where impact bats are hard to come by.

11. Dylan Bundy, RHP | Baltimore Orioles (age 20)
Current level: Has not played (injury)
Preseason ranking: 3

Bundy was in the top three in all of baseball coming into this spring, but the uncertainty around his elbow injury decreases his value, at least for the time being. I've heard that Buck Showalter wanted Bundy to improve his time to the plate, which could have caused Bundy to alter his mechanics and hurt himself, but the injury could just as easily be the result of overuse in high school.

The latest on Bundy is that he is set to resume throwing in a couple of weeks after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection to deal with soreness in his right forearm.

12. Gerrit Cole, RHP | Pittsburgh Pirates (age 22)
Current level: Triple-A (Indianapolis)
Preseason ranking: 8

You know, Gerrit, it's time we talk about what it means to have "plus stuff." It doesn't mean you light up the radar gun. It doesn't mean you buckle scouts' knees with your slider. It means every now and then you need to miss a bat. So maybe do that a little more and walk guys a little less, and we'll see you in the big leagues.

13. Aaron Sanchez, RHP | Toronto Blue Jays (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Dunedin)
Preseason ranking: 19

He's on the shelf right now with a minor muscle pull, but Sanchez's plus stuff, including a fastball up to 99 mph with minimal effort, is producing better results already than it did last year, a step forward similar to Archie Bradley's, where the performance is catching up to the scouting reports.

14. Jameson Taillon, RHP | Pittsburgh Pirates (age 21)
Current level: Double-A (Altoona)
Preseason ranking: 20

If you want to argue that Taillon is better than Cole, I won't strongly dispute it. Cole has more weapons and does it a little easier, but Taillon is very physical and will show two plus pitches of his own, with just a year's difference between the two.

15. Zack Wheeler, RHP | New York Mets (age 22)
Current level: Triple-A (Las Vegas)
Preseason ranking: 15

Wheeler missed one start in May with a sore clavicle but returned last week to throw five innings at Iowa and isn't expected to have further problems. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff, and after a few wild outings early in the year, including one in which he walked six guys, he has walked just five in his past four outings.

16. Gary Sanchez, C | New York Yankees (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Tampa)
Preseason ranking: 18

Although there's still some question of whether he will remain a catcher long term, I think he's going to stay there, as he's enough of an athlete to become an adequate backstop in time -- and his bat will be MVP-caliber for that position.

17. Anthony Rendon, 3B | Washington Nationals (age 22)
Current level: Double-A (Harrisburg)
Preseason ranking: 17

Rendon didn't embarrass himself in 25 at-bats in Washington last month and continues to hit well with an outstanding approach in Double-A. I still don't get why the Nationals are taking a guy who's had three traumatic ankle injuries and experimenting with him at second base, and if they leave him at third, he can take over when Ryan Zimmerman has to move off the position.

18. Mike Zunino, C | Seattle Mariners (age 22)
Current level: Triple-A (Tacoma)
Preseason ranking: N/A

The third overall pick in last June's draft, Zunino, like Myers, has struggled to start the season, although in his defense he's the only position player from his draft class who's in Triple-A right now. I thought he might be up by late June, but Labor Day seems like a more realistic target now.

19. Carlos Correa, SS | Houston Astros (age 18)
Current level: Low Class A (Quad Cities)
Preseason ranking: 24

Correa was the No. 1 pick last June, one spot ahead of Buxton. If you're an Astros fan dismayed to see Buxton's crazy start in low-A, bear in mind that Correa is nine months younger than Buxton and performing extremely well (.274/.402/.400) for someone so young and who has yet to grow into his frame and tap into his power potential.

20. Kyle Zimmer, RHP | Kansas City Royals (age 21)
Current level: High Class A (Wilmington)
Preseason ranking: 27

Zimmer looked dominant earlier in the season but has slowed a little to where he's looking just very good. It's a tiny sample, but seeing that he's allowed six homers already in nine starts isn't great, since he pitches in a big ballpark and his stuff is good enough that A-ball hitters shouldn't square him up like that.

21. Jorge Soler, OF | Chicago Cubs (age 21)
Current level: High Class A (Daytona)
Preseason ranking: 42

The power is already showing up thanks to Soler's tremendous bat speed, and he's drawn more walks (18 in 173 PAs) than I would have guessed given how long he had gone without facing live pitching before last summer. He's been only fair in right field and his arm has looked average, both disappointments relative to what I saw from him last year.

22. Gregory Polanco, OF | Pittsburgh Pirates (age 21)
Current level: High Class A (Bradenton)
Preseason ranking: 55

Scouts seem mixed on whether he'll stay in center or not, but even if he doesn't, he brings a lot of skills to the table offensively and would be very good in a corner. If he does stay in center, he has some star potential because of his bat.

23. Garin Cecchini, 3B | Boston Red Sox (age 22)
Current level: High Class A (Salem)
Preseason ranking: Unranked

Cecchini is a high-IQ player with a good feel for hitting but no plus tools who just missed my preseason top 100 and now looks like he clearly should have made it, hitting .365/.475/.615 and translating that ability to hit into above-average power production. There's absolutely some randomness/sample-size stuff at work here, but the early reports from scouts are glowing -- it's hard not to write up a player positively when he goes 8-for-10 in a three-game series.

24. Michael Wacha, RHP | St. Louis Cardinals (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Memphis)
Preseason ranking: Unranked

Multiple scouts have told me they've seen an above-average breaking ball from Wacha this year, which was the main concern about him coming out of Texas A&M last June. (That said, I still don't get why he fell to the 19th pick.) There are rumors he will be called up to start for St. Louis on Thursday, but even if he has to wait, he could step into the Cardinals' rotation this summer and be a league-average starter as soon as next year.

25. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP | Tampa Bay Rays (Age 20)
Current level: Low Class A (Bowling Green)
Preseason ranking: 47

The Rays have handled him very gently, but Guerrieri is flashing ace stuff -- fastball up to 97 mph, a hammer breaking ball -- while showing very good control for a 20-year-old in his first full season of pro ball. He has been facing 18-to-21 hitters in most starts but has yet to walk more than two guys in any outing. He's also killing worms like it's a mission, with a groundout/air out rate above 3.5.

Also considered: Robert Stephenson, RHP (Cincinnati Reds); Yasiel Puig, OF (Los Angeles Dodgers); Billy Hamilton, CF (Cincinnati Reds); Tyler Skaggs, LHP (Arizona Diamondbacks); Corey Seager, IF (Los Angeles Dodgers).

 

[HacheMan]

Are post-DL pitchers safe to start?

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Stubbornness -- stubbornness in the face of facts -- is not an endearing quality of a fantasy baseball analyst.

Our place is to constantly review and revise our opinions. We cannot cling to old mantras, not when the game is changing to this degree: The major league ERA this season is 3.99, more than a quarter-run below the 2008 league average (4.32). If your pitching strategy has not changed accordingly, even just a little, you are not keeping up with the times.

For example, I have long distrusted pitchers immediately following their activation from the disabled list, but recent events have prompted me to re-examine that conservative approach; three outings in particular sent me back to the fact-finding drawing board:

• I watched Zack Greinke throw five innings of one-run baseball against the Washington Nationals on May 15, earning himself the win.


• I watched Johnny Cueto throw five innings of three-run baseball with eight strikeouts at the New York Mets on May 20, also earning himself the win.

• And I watched Matt Garza throw five innings of shutout, one-hit baseball at the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 21.

All three pitchers had Bill James Game Scores of at least 50 in those outings (50 represents a "quality start" using that measure). In fact, 13 of the past 14 top 50-valued starting pitchers -- that valuation determined by either their preseason average draft position or their Player Rater standing in the season in question -- managed a Bill James Game Score of 50-plus in their first starts since being activated from the disabled list.

Long have I stood behind this particular pitching strategy: Always bench a starting pitcher in his first start fresh off the disabled list. It is one I have discussed in this space in detail as recently as two years ago, and it is one that I said in the Week 9 Forecaster that I would break for a fresh-off-the-DL Wednesday starter, Jered Weaver.

Back in 2011, the facts suggested the conservative approach was the correct one. Today, the facts suggest otherwise. They say that I shouldn start Weaver not just because he's an elite pitcher but because even the "pretty good" tend to succeed in start No. 1 back.

Reexamining this study, I isolated the 47 top-50 starting pitchers -- again that value point decided by either preseason ADP in the given season or final Player Rater standing at the conclusion of said season, among exclusively starting pitchers -- who made a grand total of 71 trips to the DL and have subsequently been activated, since the beginning of 2010. To qualify, these pitchers had to be directly activated into a team's rotation; none of them were initially sent to the bullpen or the minor leagues for a start or two first.

The chart below breaks down their performances into six groups: The first is their statistics in their final five starts before landing on the DL; the next four represent stats in their first through fourth starts following activation; the final represents stats in their fifth starts and beyond after being activated.

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<CENTER>Start No.</CENTER>	<CENTER>QS%</CENTER>	<CENTER>ERA</CENTER>	<CENTER>WHIP</CENTER>	<CENTER>K/BB</CENTER>	<CENTER>K/9</CENTER>	<CENTER>BB/9</CENTER>	<CENTER>IP/G</CENTER>	<CENTER>Pitches /GS</CENTER>
Prev. 5	50.0%	4.20	1.30	2.67	7.87	2.95	5.88	95.5
1	45.1%	2.99	1.19	3.05	7.81	2.56	5.60	87.3
2	57.7%	3.99	1.28	2.77	7.92	2.86	5.85	94.2
3	46.3%	4.87	1.40	2.41	7.06	2.93	5.83	94.7
4	50.8%	4.31	1.33	2.94	7.50	2.55	6.02	97.7
5+	59.6%	3.89	1.26	2.78	7.67	2.76	6.21	99.2

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That 2.99 ERA and 1.19 WHIP represent a stark contrast to the numbers from my 2011 study (4.34 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), and it makes the decision to start Weaver on Wednesday -- as well as future DL returnees such as David Price, Josh Johnson and Brandon Beachy -- much more sensible. You'd have to go all the way back to April 8 of last season, for Clay Buchholz's first start of the season following his recovery from a stress fracture in his back, for the last true "stinker" from this group (4 IP, 8 H, 7 ER).

That said, there are two caveats to these findings.

One is that, despite those sparking ratios, the same trend of capped pitch counts and diminished stamina apparent in the 2011 study remain. The average pitches per start (87.3) and quality start percentage (45.1 percent) remain significantly beneath the 2013 major league averages of 95.4 and 51.4 percent, meaning that if your league has a strict seasonal starts cap, you might not extract the necessary volume of stats from your starter. This is the rationale for the "consider your league context" warning I have regularly passed along.

That said, the average Bill James Game Score of this group was 52, higher than the 2013 major league average of 51, and remember that this formula rewards strikeouts, meaning it's a better representation of fantasy success than quality starts. You might not get the length of outing you desire, but the per-inning contributions should be palatable.

The other caveat is that, while these pitchers might have enjoyed recent success in start No. 1 fresh off the DL -- and, to a lesser degree, also in start No. 2 -- starts Nos. 3 to 5 have been a bit shakier, as the aforementioned Greinke and Garza have shown. It appears that one start's success following activation doesn't guarantee anything for subsequent turns; in fact, it appears the "diminished velocity or spotty command" might emerge in this latter stage of recovery. The K/BB ratio stats in start No. 3 illustrate that -- and while I excluded it from the chart due to minimal variance -- there is indeed an ever-so-slight dip in average velocity in starts Nos. 3 and 4.

The reason for these shifts isn't abundantly clear, but, to speculate, perhaps teams are getting smarter at easing their most valuable starters back from injuries slowly, in addition to capping their pitch counts lining them up for somewhat softer first matchups. Sure enough, there were three Pirates matchups, two Mets, one Chicago Cubs and one Minnesota Twins, as well as Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers and Nationals matchups that came during massively down periods for those offenses in that aforementioned group of 14 recent fresh-off-the-DL starters.

Either way, I'm amending my strategy: Feel free to start any meaningful fantasy starter in his first start fresh off the DL, so long as you've done your requisite homework regarding his pitch count/stamina and matchup.

Then, be mindful of each and every one of his next several matchups, which is an add-on to my strategy that was not present before.

Returning to Weaver, he threw 5⅔ innings and 75 pitches in his most recent extended spring training game on May 22, meaning he might be prepared to approach 100 pitches in his Wednesday assignment. It comes against the Dodgers in a home game; since the beginning of 2011, Weaver has an ERA at home (2.11) more than a run lower than on the road (3.14), while the Dodgers are mired in a 13-game stretch during which they've batted .244/.310/.358 and averaged 3.46 runs per contest.

I'll reiterate: Weaver gets my nod. At least for this matchup.

It's Weaver's starts Nos. 2-6 that might warrant more caution. Consider that, after this outing, he'd next get the Boston Red Sox (on the road), New York Yankees (at home), Seattle Mariners (home), Detroit Tigers (road), St. Louis Cardinals (home) and Red Sox again (home) in those following five turns, assuming he pitches every fifth game. If the Los Angeles Angels pitch him on every fifth day, he'd trade only one of those matchups: the Cardinals for the Houston Astros on the road. Weaver's owners should watch his first start, if possible, and make their decisions on a start-by-start basis from there.

[h=3]Relief Efforts[/h]
In a week in which one of the top starting pitching stories is a pitcher coming off the DL (Weaver), arguably the top relief pitching story is two closers going on the DL: The Milwaukee Brewers placed Jim Henderson on the DL on Saturday with a strained right hamstring he suffered a night before, while the Indians placed Chris Perez on the DL on Sunday with rotator cuff tendinitis.

This opened up two bullpens to multiple short-term candidates for saves, with Vinnie Pestano of the Indians the most obvious pickup in either bullpen. Perez's primary setup man for a little more than two calendar years, Pestano has the fifth-most holds (70) since the beginning of the 2011 season, to go along with a sparkling 2.69 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 3.13 strikeouts-per-walk ratio during that span. The problem, however, is that Pestano's performance has come into question of late, perhaps for the first time in his career.


Pestano's average fastball velocity, clocked at 92.1 mph on average thus far in his big league career, was a mere 89.2 mph on average in his outing this past Friday, then 88.4 mph a day later on Saturday. Those represent his fifth-worst and worst numbers in any single outing in his career. He was touched up for four runs on four hits in his inning of work in the latter appearance, raising his season ERA to 5.25. Considering he spent 17 days on the disabled list earlier in the month with elbow tendinitis, Pestano perhaps isn't his usual healthy self, meaning that while he's worth an instant add in any format, he's hardly assured of holding this job if he doesn't improve soon.

In the event Pestano can't get it done, either 2011 draftee Cody Allen or righty-dominating Joe Smith could get a look in the role. Allen is an intriguing stash for AL-only owners as the owner of a 2.31 ERA and 11.57 strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio in 20 appearances, as well as a mid-90s fastball and curveball that could put him into future-years closer consideration.

The Brewers' bullpen, meanwhile, will go to the dreaded committee despite the presence of John Axford and his 106 career saves, which rank 17th among active major leaguers. Axford, in fact, might not even be part of said committee, as manager Ron Roenicke told the team's official website on Saturday, "I think we like what we're doing with Ax now, and we'll probably continue to do it that way."

Francisco Rodriguez, third among active relievers with 295 career saves, moves to the forefront of the closer speculation in Milwaukee, especially after he completed Friday's game in relief of Henderson to notch a one-out save. Rodriguez might share opportunities initially with Mike Gonzalez -- and perhaps even Brandon Kintzler or Burke Badenhop -- but in this season in which "closer experience" has driven many managerial decisions around the game -- see Gregg, Kevin; Bell, Heath; and Valverde, Jose -- he's the smartest pickup of the bunch. Strange, strange things keep happening in the ninth inning this season.

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[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top-150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For starter- or reliever-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER></CENTER>	<CENTER>Rnk</CENTER>	Player	<CENTER>Pos Rnk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk</CENTER>
1	Clayton Kershaw, LAD	SP1	1		76	Brandon Morrow, Tor	SP57	60
2	Felix Hernandez, Sea	SP2	2		77	Grant Balfour, Oak	RP20	77
3	Justin Verlander, Det	SP3	3		78	Ernesto Frieri, LAA	RP21	78
4	Adam Wainwright, StL	SP4	4		79	Ryan Dempster, Bos	SP58	68
5	Stephen Strasburg, Wsh	SP5	6		80	Jarrod Parker, Oak	SP59	81
6	Yu Darvish, Tex	SP6	5		81	Jose Valverde, Det	RP22	83
7	Cliff Lee, Phi	SP7	7		82	Brandon McCarthy, Ari	SP60	92
8	Max Scherzer, Det	SP8	9		83	Kenley Jansen, LAD	RP23	82
9	Madison Bumgarner, SF	SP9	8		84	Andrew Cashner, SD	SP61	86
10	Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh	SP10	10		85	Kevin Gregg, ChC	RP24	90
11	Craig Kimbrel, Atl	RP1	11		86	Dan Haren, Wsh	SP62	89
12	Cole Hamels, Phi	SP11	13		87	Andrew Bailey, Bos	RP25	94
13	Matt Harvey, NYM	SP12	12		88	Wandy Rodriguez, Pit	SP63	93
14	Aroldis Chapman, Cin	RP2	15		89	Phil Hughes, NYY	SP64	91
15	Zack Greinke, LAD	SP13	14		90	Wade Miley, Ari	SP65	73
16	Chris Sale, CWS	SP14	16		91	Jeremy Hellickson, TB	SP66	80
17	Matt Moore, TB	SP15	17		92	Kyle Lohse, Mil	SP67	84
18	Jon Lester, Bos	SP16	18		93	Ricky Nolasco, Mia	SP68	95
19	Anibal Sanchez, Det	SP17	23		94	Brandon Beachy, Atl	SP69	97
20	Mariano Rivera, NYY	RP3	21		95	Jason Vargas, LAA	SP70	104
21	CC Sabathia, NYY	SP18	20		96	Julio Teheran, Atl	SP71	119
22	James Shields, KC	SP19	22		97	Tim Lincecum, SF	SP72	79
23	Mat Latos, Cin	SP20	19		98	Tim Hudson, Atl	SP73	87
24	Matt Cain, SF	SP21	24		99	Chris Perez, Cle	RP26	69
25	Gio Gonzalez, Wsh	SP22	25		100	Jhoulys Chacin, Col	SP74	100
26	Jeff Samardzija, ChC	SP23	33		101	Marco Estrada, Mil	SP75	103
27	Addison Reed, CWS	RP4	28		102	Heath Bell, Ari	RP27	106
28	Johnny Cueto, Cin	SP24	27		103	David Phelps, NYY	SP76	115
29	Shelby Miller, StL	SP25	31		104	Josh Johnson, Tor	SP77	98
30	Jonathan Papelbon, Phi	RP5	30		105	Vinnie Pestano, Cle	RP28	NR
31	Mike Minor, Atl	SP26	38		106	Travis Wood, ChC	SP78	105
32	Hiroki Kuroda, NYY	SP27	29		107	A.J. Griffin, Oak	SP79	111
33	Sergio Romo, SF	RP6	35		108	Jorge De La Rosa, Col	SP80	112
34	A.J. Burnett, Pit	SP28	37		109	Jim Henderson, Mil	RP29	61
35	Jason Grilli, Pit	RP7	36		110	David Hernandez, Ari	RP30	109
36	Homer Bailey, Cin	SP29	41		111	Jason Hammel, Bal	SP81	107
37	Clay Buchholz, Bos	SP30	34		112	Brandon League, LAD	RP31	102
38	Rafael Soriano, Wsh	RP8	26		113	Alexi Ogando, Tex	SP82	99
39	Jered Weaver, LAA	SP31	46		114	Kyle Kendrick, Phi	SP83	101
40	Lance Lynn, StL	SP32	42		115	Jose Veras, Hou	RP32	110
41	Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea	SP33	43		116	Ryan Madson, LAA	RP33	96
42	Joe Nathan, Tex	RP9	39		117	Jeremy Guthrie, KC	SP84	108
43	Alex Cobb, TB	SP34	47		118	Trevor Rosenthal, StL	RP34	118
44	Doug Fister, Det	SP35	40		119	Jose Quintana, CWS	SP85	116
45	Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea	RP10	44		120	Francisco Liriano, Pit	SP86	127
46	David Price, TB	SP36	32		121	John Lackey, Bos	SP87	129
47	Jake Peavy, CWS	SP37	45		122	Francisco Rodriguez, Mil	RP35	NR
48	Patrick Corbin, Ari	SP38	53		123	Rex Brothers, Col	RP36	147
49	R.A. Dickey, Tor	SP39	49		124	Joel Peralta, TB	RP37	143
50	Derek Holland, Tex	SP40	50		125	Edwin Jackson, ChC	SP88	114
51	Kris Medlen, Atl	SP41	58		126	Brett Anderson, Oak	SP89	120
52	Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD	SP42	52		127	Bartolo Colon, Oak	SP90	125
53	Yovani Gallardo, Mil	SP43	54		128	Mike Dunn, Mia	RP38	135
54	Glen Perkins, Min	RP11	56		129	Felix Doubront, Bos	SP91	139
55	Edward Mujica, StL	RP12	62		130	Zack Wheeler, NYM	SP92	138
56	Fernando Rodney, TB	RP13	51		131	Drew Smyly, Det	RP39	117
57	Casey Janssen, Tor	RP14	55		132	Andy Pettitte, NYY	SP93	122
58	Greg Holland, KC	RP15	57		133	Wei-Yin Chen, Bal	SP94	121
59	Trevor Cahill, Ari	SP44	65		134	Ryan Cook, Oak	RP40	124
60	Jim Johnson, Bal	RP16	48		135	David Robertson, NYY	RP41	132
61	Justin Masterson, Cle	SP45	75		136	Bud Norris, Hou	SP95	131
62	Matt Garza, ChC	SP46	72		137	Mark Melancon, Pit	SP96	146
63	Chris Tillman, Bal	SP47	88		138	Tanner Scheppers, Tex	RP42	144
64	Tommy Milone, Oak	SP48	63		139	Mike Leake, Cin	SP97	NR
65	Huston Street, SD	RP17	66		140	Tony Cingrani, Cin	SP98	123
66	Rafael Betancourt, Col	RP18	59		141	Scott Kazmir, Cle	SP99	126
67	C.J. Wilson, LAA	SP49	76		142	Ubaldo Jimenez, Cle	SP100	128
68	Jonathon Niese, NYM	SP50	85		143	Josh Beckett, LAD	SP101	130
69	Michael Wacha, StL	SP51	NR		144	John Danks, CWS	SP102	NR
70	Ian Kennedy, Ari	SP52	64		145	Cody Allen, Cle	RP43	NR
71	Jose Fernandez, Mia	SP53	67		146	Jerome Williams, LAA	SP103	NR
72	Bobby Parnell, NYM	RP19	71		147	Jeff Locke, Pit	SP104	149
73	Paul Maholm, Atl	SP54	70		148	Zach McAllister, Cle	SP105	142
74	Ervin Santana, KC	SP55	74		149	Luke Gregerson, SD	RP44	137
75	Kevin Gausman, Bal	SP56	NR		150	Mike Gonzalez, Mil	RP44	NR

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>

 

[HacheMan]

SB projections: My updated top 10

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Nobody should be terribly surprised that San Diego Padres shortstop Everth Cabrera is running wild, because this is what he did last season. Cabrera led the National League -- and all middle infielders -- in stolen bases last season, and all of baseball in the category after the All-Star break, with an impressive 29. He's off to a tremendous start this season as well. Cabrera doesn't do much else to help a fantasy team: His power is next to nil, he won't approach a .300 batting average and on the Padres he likely won't score a ton of runs. But the guy has upped his walk and contact rates, doesn't try to hit fly balls, and when he gets on base, he certainly takes advantage.

It's hardly going out on a limb to project Cabrera to lead the big leagues in stolen bases this season, but I'm doing it anyway. What should I say, Kevin Youkilis wins the crown? Continuing with a week full of predictions after Tuesday's home run blog entry, we deal with the speedsters, and there might be a surprise or two lurking.

1. Everth Cabrera, SS, San Diego Padres (54 projected steals): Fantasy owners will certainly take it! Nobody reached 50 steals in 2012, after all. Cabrera has job security and a green light. Can't ask for much more.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox (46): He ran wild in April, and his biggest problem in May has been that he can't steal first base. I'm still buying a big steals and runs season, but the homers stay in single digits.

3. Coco Crisp, OF, Oakland Athletics (41): One of the more underrated speedsters out there, Crisp might have another DL stint in him, but his plate discipline has been terrific, and he isn't slowing down.

4. Michael Bourn, OF, Cleveland Indians (40): He's probably fast enough to lead the big leagues in steals, but it's tough to tell whether he wants to. Speed doesn't always age well, and he's 30. Last season he stole only 42 bags. I see the slight downward trend continuing.

5. Starling Marte, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (37): The main issue here is that when his batting average drops 50 or so points, he won't be on base as much, because he doesn't take many walks.

6. Jean Segura, SS, Milwaukee Brewers (36): A bit like Marte in that he won't help himself by drawing walks, but he clearly wants to run. Just beware of the other offensive categories falling back some.

7. (tie) Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees (34): I thought he'd be a better overall player, to be honest, but it doesn't mean he can't top 30 steals for the third time.

7. (tie) Ben Revere, OF, Philadelphia Phillies (34): He has been pretty disappointing, but the Phillies have to play him, and I could see a double-digit-steal month or two on the horizon, too.

7. (tie) Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels (34): Never heard of him.

10. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Indians (33): And you thought last year was a fluke! Kipnis had a miserable April, but May has been kind for power and speed purposes.

Best of the rest: There won't be another 30-homer/30-steal season for Brewers stud Ryan Braun. He's trying to steal bases, but it's just not working. I say he ends up with 15. … Miami Marlins leadoff hitter Juan Pierre probably could steal 40 bases if he were to get 500 at-bats, but I don't see that happening anymore with prospects Christian Yelich and Jake Marisnick knocking on the promotion door. Pierre might end up as an AL contender's fourth outfielder soon. … He won't end up in Toronto, though. The Jays already have Rajai Davis and Emilio Bonifacio. Davis will flirt with 30 steals once he's healthy. Bonifacio has been healthy and a major disappointment after swiping 30 bases in a mere 64 games in 2012. Move on. … Baltimore Orioles outfielder Nate McLouth has resurrected his career, but I think he falls a bit short of 30 steals. … What happens to Cincinnati Reds running machine Billy Hamilton? Well, it'd be easier to recommend him if he was thriving at Triple-A Louisville, but he's not. See you in September, and enjoy the nine steals.

Coming up Thursday, we look at the starting pitchers!

 

[HacheMan]

Projecting SP wins: My updated top 10

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Unlike home runs and stolen bases and most offensive statistics, for that matter, pitcher wins are not a good gauge of a player's true ability. They just aren't. We could compare myriad sets of pitchers in this space with similar statistics in ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate and more, and then you'd see that some of these guys have five or six wins, while others inexplicably have two or three. There's Matt Moore and Patrick Corbin off to monster starts and Cole Hamels sputtering away sans run support. I can't make the case Hamels has been better, but just because someone has or hasn't won games through 10 starts tells us nothing about the remaining 22 or so starts.

So it is that I'll take a shot at predicting the final leaderboard in pitchers' wins. I know it's silly, but it's fun, and it continues the theme of projection week, with home runs and stolen bases already off the board. This will not be a ranking of Player Rater value, but rather just wins, and hopefully this will give you an idea of which pitchers I like more than others.

<OFFER>1. (tie) Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (20 projected wins): He's the best pitcher in the game, for both real-life and fantasy purposes, and I see him becoming more fortunate in the wins category as the season progresses and his team modestly improves.

1. (tie) Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers (20): Um, he's pretty good, too! He gets plenty of run support, and as we've seen, he's capable of pitching deeper into games. I say Darvish wins the strikeout title as well.

3. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals (19): Darvish was my AL Cy Young pick back in Feburary, and here was my NL pick. No reason to switch now! Wainwright has been a big winner before, but more important, he should reach 230 innings again. More innings, more shots for wins.

4. (tie) Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays (18): He's obviously off to a great start when it comes to wins, and while he has been a bit fortunate considering his walk rate, there's room for improvement. I'm selling high on Corbin, but not so much with Moore.

4. (tie) Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals (18): Similarly, Zimmermann's strikeout rate has room for considerable growth based on his 2012 figures, so while his xFIP tells us regression is ahead, he'll keep winning games for a team that is about to take off.

4. (tie) Lance Lynn, Cardinals (18): Obviously I see the Cardinals continuing to thrive this season. Watch Lynn pitch and he doesn't seem special. He even lost his rotation spot briefly last season. But he also won 18 games, and the Cardinals have the bullpen to hold his leads. I think he wins 18 again.

4. (tie) Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox (18): Nothing in his numbers concerns me, and he actually has produced a consistent xFIP over the past few years. The team around him, however, is much improved. This gift will keep on giving, and he'll win more than talented teammate Clay Buchholz.

8. (tie) Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (17 each): Yeah, Scherzer has a microscopic WHIP and more strikeouts while Verlander is putting way too many men on base, but I say they end up in the same place for the eventual AL Central champs.

8. (tie) CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees (17): The last time the hefty lefty failed to win half of his starts in a season was 2008, when he still won 17 games. He'll do it again here in 32 starts. Teammate Kuroda is more of a health concern at 38, but he's pitching better than last season, when he was healthy enough to win 16 games.

Best of the rest: There's nothing wrong with Corbin, but it's hard to imagine him keeping up this wins pace, and the team's bullpen is a looming issue as well. Well, unless you think Heath Bell is reliable. … The nightmare second half for Justin Masterson last season (5.60 ERA) is still on my mind. … I thought about Chicago White Sox lefty Chris Sale and right-hander Jake Peavy, but isn't it wishful thinking to expect more than 30 starts for each? … Like the White Sox, New York Mets ace Matt Harvey pitches for a below-average team, and while not every guy on a bad team fails to win, it's also tough to expect Harvey to keep his ERA this low for six months. He might not even get the chance to pitch regularly in September. … As for Mr. Hamels, all he needs to do is see how many wins Cliff Lee earned in 2012, because he's that guy this year. By the way, I say Lee wins 15 this year. … I want to pick James Shields to win in the high-teens, but he just has too far to go at this point. … Same with Cincinnati Reds ace Johnny Cueto, though I like his team better.

We finish the week with projected saves leaders!</OFFER>

 

[HacheMan]

Wacha profile; top 10 prospects

Less than a year after the Cardinals took him with a first-round pick, right-hander Michael Wacha made his big league debut Thursday night against the Royals. Wacha needed just 93 pitches to navigate seven innings, allowing one run on two hits and no walks while striking out six. He retired the first 13 batters he faced and would have earned the victory if Mitchell Boggs hadn't imploded (again) in the ninth inning.

Wacha worked in the 92-94 mph range and touched 97 with his fastball, and he recorded four of his six strikeouts with his quality changeup. He mixed in a few breaking balls but mainly relied on the fastball and changeup.

Teams are always looking for pitching, especially college arms who can move quickly. Wacha fit that bill perfectly after going 27-7 in three years at Texas A&M. So how did he last until the 19th overall pick last June? Well, the only knock on Wacha, who had two plus pitches, plus command and control and a track record of success, was that he had a mediocre breaking ball. More than a few clubs have to be second-guessing their decision to pass on him right about now.


<OFFER>Wacha signed quickly for his assigned pick value of $1.9 million, ended his first pro summer in Double-A and began his first full season in Triple-A. He was dazzling in big league camp, where St. Louis manager Mike Matheny said Wacha had the best changeup of anyone on hand. He was dazzling in the minors, as well, posting a 1.71 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 74 strikeouts in 73 2/3 innings.</OFFER>

I didn't rank Wacha among the top 10 fantasy prospects for 2013 prior to his call-up because, frankly, I didn't see much of an opportunity for him to make an impact in St. Louis, given the Cardinals' deep stable of arms. But Jaime Garcia had season-ending shoulder surgery, Jake Westbrook has ongoing elbow issues and call-up John Gast just went on the disabled list because of a shoulder strain.

Wacha's polish should allow him to make the transition to the big leagues more easily than most pitchers, and playing for a quality team will help, as well. His stuff isn't as loud as most of the pitchers in this week's fantasy top 10 (below), but Wacha is the best bet to provide your fantasy team with wins and lower your ERA and WHIP this year.


[h=3]1. Zack Wheeler, SP, New York Mets (Last week's rank: 4)[/h]Season totals: 3-1, 4.13 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 53 K's in 52 1/3 IP (10 starts) at Triple-A Las Vegas.
Update: Amid chatter that he'll get the call to New York in the next couple of weeks, Wheeler turned in a mediocre four-inning start Monday, his second outing back after missing a turn with mild shoulder inflammation. Nevertheless, Las Vegas manager Wally Backman told Newsday, "This kid's ready. He's ready to pitch in the big leagues. I personally believe that. His stuff definitely plays. It's a matter of when the organization feels he's ready to go there."
Prognosis: Once he won't accrue enough service time to gain an extra year of arbitration eligibility, the Mets will promote Wheeler. That likely will happen in mid-June. Some scouts preferred him to Matt Harvey when both were in the minors, though don't expect the same instant impact. Wheeler has battled oblique, blister and shoulder issues this year and has rarely been in peak form.


[h=3]2. Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians (Last week's rank: 2)[/h]Season totals: 2-2, 5.05 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 41 K's in 41 IP (seven starts) at Triple-A Columbus.
Update: Bauer's past three starts have been his worst three of his minor league season, as his ERA has nearly doubled from 2.55 to 5.05. He continues to fight control problems, issuing 14 walks in 16 1/3 innings while giving up 17 hits and 18 runs. His best recent contribution? His rap song "Gutter to the Grail: Cleveland Indians Original Track," which was well received by players on the big league club.
Prognosis: The Indians have holes in the back of their rotation, and Bauer has better pure stuff than anyone in their rotation. But until he solves his control and command issues, Cleveland can't toss him into a playoff race.


[h=3]3. Chris Archer, SP, Tampa Bay Rays (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]Season totals: 5-3, 3.96 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 52 K's in 50 IP (10 starts) at Triple-A Durham.
Update: Originally a fifth-round pick by Cleveland in 2006, Archer went to the Cubs in a trade for Mark DeRosa and to the Rays in a deal for Matt Garza. He has electric stuff, with his lively 92-96 mph fastball and wipeout slider both grading as well above-average pitches when he's on. He has sound mechanics but inconsistent command, though that didn't stop him from fanning 36 in 29 1/3 big league innings a year ago. If everything comes together, he projects as a No. 2 starter in the majors, though he also could make for a dynamic closer down the road.
Prognosis: When David Price went on the disabled list with a triceps injury, Jake Odorizzi got the first shot at replacing him but was hit hard in two starts. Archer will get the call to start Saturday against the Indians. There's no timetable yet for Price's return, so Archer should get a few starts to show what he can do.


[h=3]4. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals (Last week's rank: 1)[/h]Season totals: .330/.473/.625, 6 HR, 24 RBIs, 1 SB in 32 games at Double-A Harrisburg.
Update: Rendon hasn't played since May 23 after having wisdom teeth removed. While he has been out, the Nationals put Danny Espinosa on the disabled list with a fractured right wrist and announced that Stephen Lombardozzi (and not Rendon) would replace him in the big league lineup.
Prognosis: Neither Espinosa nor Lombardozzi has provided much offense, and Washington already has fallen 5 1/2 games back in the playoff race. The Nationals can't afford to lose much ground, so Rendon could get the call at second base sooner rather than later. And if Ryan Zimmerman gets hurt again, Rendon is the obvious choice to fill in for him.

[h=3]5. Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays (Last week's rank: 5)[/h]Season totals: .267/.350/.471, 9 HR, 41 RBIs, 3 SB in 49 games at Triple-A Durham.
Update: Finally we see the Wil Myers we expected. The 2012 Minor League Player of the Year has five homers in the past eight days, giving him nine on the season. He's still striking out a lot (60 times in 191 at-bats), but he's once again looking like one of the elite power hitters in the minors.
Prognosis: The Rays are getting production from all three outfield spots and don't have an obvious need for Myers right now. But if his bat stays this hot, they'll have to find room for him in the second half.

[h=3]6. Kyle Gibson, SP, Minnesota Twins (Last week's rank: 6)[/h]Season totals: 4-5 record, 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 59 K's in 66 2/3 IP (11 starts) at Triple-A Rochester.
Update: After Gibson threw eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball last Saturday, the Twins hinted that he might be one more good start from making his big league debut. But he took a step backward on Thursday, giving up a season-high six runs in six innings.
Prognosis: The Twins will wait a bit longer for Gibson, who needs to show more consistency. He has thrown scoreless ball in four of his past seven starts but has been torched in the other three. Minnesota has recently added mediocre options Samuel Deduno and P.J. Walters to its rotation, so the opportunity is there for Gibson.


[h=3]7. Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Last week's rank: 7)[/h]Season totals: 3-3 record, 3.67 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 39 K's in 54 IP (10 starts) at Triple-A Indianapolis.
Update: Cole might have the best pure stuff of any pitcher in the minors, yet he's averaging only 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Incredibly, he has as many whiffs as innings in just one of his 10 starts, and that came way back on April 10, when he fanned five in two frames. In his last start, he allowed three hits and two walks to the first five batters, then just one more baserunner over six innings.
Prognosis: Like his former UCLA teammate Bauer, Cole could help the Pirates, a surprise contender, if he could do a better job of locating his pitches where he wants to. The difference between the two is that Bauer's big league club has more obvious holes in its rotation.


[h=3]8. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: 8)[/h]Season totals: .248/.316/.330, 2 HR, 16 RBIs, 30 SB in 50 games at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: Hamilton is starting to hit -- his .248 average is his highest since April 17 -- and he continues to run (eight steals in his past nine games). With Ryan Ludwick out until August, the Reds are making do with a left-field platoon of Donald Lutz and Xavier Paul.
Prognosis: Lutz isn't doing much at the plate, so if Hamilton continues to make adjustments, the Reds could pair him with Paul in left field and/or use him as a defensive upgrade for Shin-Soo Choo in center. Hamilton might not help fantasy teams much in the other categories, but he's capable of 10-plus steals per month with even semi-regular playing time.


[h=3]9. Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: 9)[/h]Season totals: .317/.351/.480, 4 HR, 20 RBIs, 5 SB in 31 games at Triple-A Memphis.
Update: Taveras still hasn't played since May 12 after hurting his right ankle stealing a base. The injury isn't considered serious, and he has participated in batting practice and outfield drills, but the Cardinals placed him on the seven-day disabled list Tuesday.
Prognosis: Even if he were fully healthy, the current best prospect in the minor leagues still wouldn't have a clear path into the Cardinals' lineup. But his offensive ability would make him extremely valuable if he gets that chance.


[h=3]10. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week's rank: 10)[/h]Season totals: 4-1 record, 0.79 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 37 K's in 34 IP (six starts) at Double-A Mobile; 2-0 record, 1.26 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 43 K's in 28 2/3 IP at high Class A Visalia (five starts).
Update: It took 11 starts before anyone could tag Bradley with a loss this year, though it's hard to fault him for allowing just one run in eight innings in a 1-0 defeat Wednesday. He has permitted just three runs in six Double-A starts, though his walk level is up to 4.2 per nine innings (from 3.1 in high Class A).
Prognosis: Arizona has starting depth, Daniel Hudson is about ready to return from Tommy John surgery and Tyler Skaggs looked great in a Monday spot start. That said, Bradley has wipeout stuff, and if he keeps pitching like this, the Diamondbacks will have to promote him.
Called up (last week's rank): Nick Franklin, 2B/SS, Seattle Mariners (3).

 

[HacheMan]

Projecting saves: Will Grilli, Mo set pace?

Eric Karabell

We're nearly two months into the season, and now is a perfect time to look closer at your closers to see if they're doing the job you expect from them. Saves and stolen bases are the easiest categories to move up in for fantasy owners after two months of the season, because those statistics are so finite. Craig Kimbrel saves games. Aroldis Chapman saves games. And you know what, so do the more unheralded Edward Mujica, Glen Perkins and yes, even Kevin Gregg. So let's conclude "season predictions week" with the pitchers I think will end up among the top 10 in saves. Because we saved the best for last.

1. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees (45 saves): It somehow seems fitting that the greatest relief pitcher of all-time will end his career with the league's top save total, and the chance to finish more games in October (which he will). Rivera has actually led the majors in saves in a season only three times, but with a team that no longer wins its games 8-2, he's on pace for a career high. He'll fall short there, but nobody will save more games this year -- or ever.

2. Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves (44): Other closers might have a lower ERA, but he's still the best. Only concern is that both his top setup men are done with elbow problems, which hardly means he's next, but can the likes of Cory Gearrin and Anthony Varvaro do the job in front of him? Apparently I believe so.

3. (tie) Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers (43): Perhaps Gearrin can thrive much like Rangers setup man Tanner Scheppers has. Regardless, Nathan is thriving yet again, no worries here.

3. (tie) Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox (43): One would think he can't continue to save roughly three of every four ChiSox wins, but then again, the team should improve as the season goes on.

5. Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds (40): Would still have more value pitching 175 innings, but that ship sailed months ago.

6. Jason Grilli, Pittsburgh Pirates (39): His start has been so impressive he might save this many by the All-Star break. OK, that's impossible, but just be careful here, as Joel Hanrahan didn't get many save chances when the Pirates went in the tank the final months last year.

7. Sergio Romo, San Francisco Giants (37): An underrated pitcher, and we know this team gives its closers many save chances.

8. (tie) Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies (34): The most expensive closer is also perhaps the most underused one. It makes little sense, but we can't control how he's used. He'll still have a very good year.

8. (tie) Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles (34): Yes, his 2012 season was tremendous and unsustainable, but he's not a bad pitcher. He's just struggling a bit but will figure things out.

10. Ernesto Frieri, Los Angeles Angels (33): It's not looking like Ryan Madson is close to joining the Angels, so Frieri likely will keep this job indefinitely. He walks batters, but he's also tough to hit.

Best of the rest: The top St. Louis Cardinals reliever is actually right-hander Trevor Rosenthal, a future starter. Edward Mujica is thriving, but I predict Rosenthal will have the job by September. … Huston Street is capable enough, but injuries have held him to less than 30 saves in five of the past six seasons. Trade him now before his next DL stint! … Rafael Soriano would seem to be a lock for 35 saves on a Washington Nationals team that figures to improve, but with two former closers setting him up, there's no way the organization would push Soriano with any kind of tweak in his arm, leg or any other body part. … Tom Wilhelmsen is certainly good enough to save 35 games. Are the Mariners good enough to give him that many chances, though?

Have a great weekend!

 

[HacheMan]

Wacha profile; top 10 prospects

By Jim Callis | Baseball America

Less than a year after the Cardinals took him with a first-round pick, right-hander Michael Wacha made his big league debut Thursday night against the Royals. Wacha needed just 93 pitches to navigate seven innings, allowing one run on two hits and no walks while striking out six. He retired the first 13 batters he faced and would have earned the victory if Mitchell Boggs hadn't imploded (again) in the ninth inning.

Wacha worked in the 92-94 mph range and touched 97 with his fastball, and he recorded four of his six strikeouts with his quality changeup. He mixed in a few breaking balls but mainly relied on the fastball and changeup.

Teams are always looking for pitching, especially college arms who can move quickly. Wacha fit that bill perfectly after going 27-7 in three years at Texas A&M. So how did he last until the 19th overall pick last June? Well, the only knock on Wacha, who had two plus pitches, plus command and control and a track record of success, was that he had a mediocre breaking ball. More than a few clubs have to be second-guessing their decision to pass on him right about now.


<OFFER>Wacha signed quickly for his assigned pick value of $1.9 million, ended his first pro summer in Double-A and began his first full season in Triple-A. He was dazzling in big league camp, where St. Louis manager Mike Matheny said Wacha had the best changeup of anyone on hand. He was dazzling in the minors, as well, posting a 1.71 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 74 strikeouts in 73 2/3 innings.</OFFER>

I didn't rank Wacha among the top 10 fantasy prospects for 2013 prior to his call-up because, frankly, I didn't see much of an opportunity for him to make an impact in St. Louis, given the Cardinals' deep stable of arms. But Jaime Garcia had season-ending shoulder surgery, Jake Westbrook has ongoing elbow issues and call-up John Gast just went on the disabled list because of a shoulder strain.

Wacha's polish should allow him to make the transition to the big leagues more easily than most pitchers, and playing for a quality team will help, as well. His stuff isn't as loud as most of the pitchers in this week's fantasy top 10 (below), but Wacha is the best bet to provide your fantasy team with wins and lower your ERA and WHIP this year.


[h=3]1. Zack Wheeler, SP, New York Mets (Last week's rank: 4)[/h]Season totals: 3-1, 4.13 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 53 K's in 52 1/3 IP (10 starts) at Triple-A Las Vegas.
Update: Amid chatter that he'll get the call to New York in the next couple of weeks, Wheeler turned in a mediocre four-inning start Monday, his second outing back after missing a turn with mild shoulder inflammation. Nevertheless, Las Vegas manager Wally Backman told Newsday, "This kid's ready. He's ready to pitch in the big leagues. I personally believe that. His stuff definitely plays. It's a matter of when the organization feels he's ready to go there."
Prognosis: Once he won't accrue enough service time to gain an extra year of arbitration eligibility, the Mets will promote Wheeler. That likely will happen in mid-June. Some scouts preferred him to Matt Harvey when both were in the minors, though don't expect the same instant impact. Wheeler has battled oblique, blister and shoulder issues this year and has rarely been in peak form.


[h=3]2. Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians (Last week's rank: 2)[/h]Season totals: 2-2, 5.05 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 41 K's in 41 IP (seven starts) at Triple-A Columbus.
Update: Bauer's past three starts have been his worst three of his minor league season, as his ERA has nearly doubled from 2.55 to 5.05. He continues to fight control problems, issuing 14 walks in 16 1/3 innings while giving up 17 hits and 18 runs. His best recent contribution? His rap song "Gutter to the Grail: Cleveland Indians Original Track," which was well received by players on the big league club.
Prognosis: The Indians have holes in the back of their rotation, and Bauer has better pure stuff than anyone in their rotation. But until he solves his control and command issues, Cleveland can't toss him into a playoff race.


[h=3]3. Chris Archer, SP, Tampa Bay Rays (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]Season totals: 5-3, 3.96 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 52 K's in 50 IP (10 starts) at Triple-A Durham.
Update: Originally a fifth-round pick by Cleveland in 2006, Archer went to the Cubs in a trade for Mark DeRosa and to the Rays in a deal for Matt Garza. He has electric stuff, with his lively 92-96 mph fastball and wipeout slider both grading as well above-average pitches when he's on. He has sound mechanics but inconsistent command, though that didn't stop him from fanning 36 in 29 1/3 big league innings a year ago. If everything comes together, he projects as a No. 2 starter in the majors, though he also could make for a dynamic closer down the road.
Prognosis: When David Price went on the disabled list with a triceps injury, Jake Odorizzi got the first shot at replacing him but was hit hard in two starts. Archer will get the call to start Saturday against the Indians. There's no timetable yet for Price's return, so Archer should get a few starts to show what he can do.


[h=3]4. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals (Last week's rank: 1)[/h]Season totals: .330/.473/.625, 6 HR, 24 RBIs, 1 SB in 32 games at Double-A Harrisburg.
Update: Rendon hasn't played since May 23 after having wisdom teeth removed. While he has been out, the Nationals put Danny Espinosa on the disabled list with a fractured right wrist and announced that Stephen Lombardozzi (and not Rendon) would replace him in the big league lineup.
Prognosis: Neither Espinosa nor Lombardozzi has provided much offense, and Washington already has fallen 5 1/2 games back in the playoff race. The Nationals can't afford to lose much ground, so Rendon could get the call at second base sooner rather than later. And if Ryan Zimmerman gets hurt again, Rendon is the obvious choice to fill in for him.


[h=3]5. Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays (Last week's rank: 5)[/h]Season totals: .267/.350/.471, 9 HR, 41 RBIs, 3 SB in 49 games at Triple-A Durham.
Update: Finally we see the Wil Myers we expected. The 2012 Minor League Player of the Year has five homers in the past eight days, giving him nine on the season. He's still striking out a lot (60 times in 191 at-bats), but he's once again looking like one of the elite power hitters in the minors.
Prognosis: The Rays are getting production from all three outfield spots and don't have an obvious need for Myers right now. But if his bat stays this hot, they'll have to find room for him in the second half.

[h=3]6. Kyle Gibson, SP, Minnesota Twins (Last week's rank: 6)[/h]Season totals: 4-5 record, 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 59 K's in 66 2/3 IP (11 starts) at Triple-A Rochester.
Update: After Gibson threw eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball last Saturday, the Twins hinted that he might be one more good start from making his big league debut. But he took a step backward on Thursday, giving up a season-high six runs in six innings.
Prognosis: The Twins will wait a bit longer for Gibson, who needs to show more consistency. He has thrown scoreless ball in four of his past seven starts but has been torched in the other three. Minnesota has recently added mediocre options Samuel Deduno and P.J. Walters to its rotation, so the opportunity is there for Gibson.


[h=3]7. Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Last week's rank: 7)[/h]Season totals: 3-3 record, 3.67 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 39 K's in 54 IP (10 starts) at Triple-A Indianapolis.
Update: Cole might have the best pure stuff of any pitcher in the minors, yet he's averaging only 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Incredibly, he has as many whiffs as innings in just one of his 10 starts, and that came way back on April 10, when he fanned five in two frames. In his last start, he allowed three hits and two walks to the first five batters, then just one more baserunner over six innings.
Prognosis: Like his former UCLA teammate Bauer, Cole could help the Pirates, a surprise contender, if he could do a better job of locating his pitches where he wants to. The difference between the two is that Bauer's big league club has more obvious holes in its rotation.


[h=3]8. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: 8)[/h]Season totals: .248/.316/.330, 2 HR, 16 RBIs, 30 SB in 50 games at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: Hamilton is starting to hit -- his .248 average is his highest since April 17 -- and he continues to run (eight steals in his past nine games). With Ryan Ludwick out until August, the Reds are making do with a left-field platoon of Donald Lutz and Xavier Paul.
Prognosis: Lutz isn't doing much at the plate, so if Hamilton continues to make adjustments, the Reds could pair him with Paul in left field and/or use him as a defensive upgrade for Shin-Soo Choo in center. Hamilton might not help fantasy teams much in the other categories, but he's capable of 10-plus steals per month with even semi-regular playing time.


[h=3]9. Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: 9)[/h]Season totals: .317/.351/.480, 4 HR, 20 RBIs, 5 SB in 31 games at Triple-A Memphis.
Update: Taveras still hasn't played since May 12 after hurting his right ankle stealing a base. The injury isn't considered serious, and he has participated in batting practice and outfield drills, but the Cardinals placed him on the seven-day disabled list Tuesday.
Prognosis: Even if he were fully healthy, the current best prospect in the minor leagues still wouldn't have a clear path into the Cardinals' lineup. But his offensive ability would make him extremely valuable if he gets that chance.


[h=3]10. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week's rank: 10)[/h]Season totals: 4-1 record, 0.79 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 37 K's in 34 IP (six starts) at Double-A Mobile; 2-0 record, 1.26 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 43 K's in 28 2/3 IP at high Class A Visalia (five starts).
Update: It took 11 starts before anyone could tag Bradley with a loss this year, though it's hard to fault him for allowing just one run in eight innings in a 1-0 defeat Wednesday. He has permitted just three runs in six Double-A starts, though his walk level is up to 4.2 per nine innings (from 3.1 in high Class A).
Prognosis: Arizona has starting depth, Daniel Hudson is about ready to return from Tommy John surgery and Tyler Skaggs looked great in a Monday spot start. That said, Bradley has wipeout stuff, and if he keeps pitching like this, the Diamondbacks will have to promote him.
Called up (last week's rank): Nick Franklin, 2B/SS, Seattle Mariners (3).

 

[HacheMan]

Projecting saves: Will Grilli, Mo set pace?

Eric Karabell

We're nearly two months into the season, and now is a perfect time to look closer at your closers to see if they're doing the job you expect from them. Saves and stolen bases are the easiest categories to move up in for fantasy owners after two months of the season, because those statistics are so finite. Craig Kimbrel saves games. Aroldis Chapman saves games. And you know what, so do the more unheralded Edward Mujica, Glen Perkins and yes, even Kevin Gregg. So let's conclude "season predictions week" with the pitchers I think will end up among the top 10 in saves. Because we saved the best for last.

1. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees (45 saves): It somehow seems fitting that the greatest relief pitcher of all-time will end his career with the league's top save total, and the chance to finish more games in October (which he will). Rivera has actually led the majors in saves in a season only three times, but with a team that no longer wins its games 8-2, he's on pace for a career high. He'll fall short there, but nobody will save more games this year -- or ever.

2. Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves (44): Other closers might have a lower ERA, but he's still the best. Only concern is that both his top setup men are done with elbow problems, which hardly means he's next, but can the likes of Cory Gearrin and Anthony Varvaro do the job in front of him? Apparently I believe so.

3. (tie) Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers (43): Perhaps Gearrin can thrive much like Rangers setup man Tanner Scheppers has. Regardless, Nathan is thriving yet again, no worries here.

3. (tie) Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox (43): One would think he can't continue to save roughly three of every four ChiSox wins, but then again, the team should improve as the season goes on.

5. Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds (40): Would still have more value pitching 175 innings, but that ship sailed months ago.

6. Jason Grilli, Pittsburgh Pirates (39): His start has been so impressive he might save this many by the All-Star break. OK, that's impossible, but just be careful here, as Joel Hanrahan didn't get many save chances when the Pirates went in the tank the final months last year.

7. Sergio Romo, San Francisco Giants (37): An underrated pitcher, and we know this team gives its closers many save chances.

8. (tie) Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies (34): The most expensive closer is also perhaps the most underused one. It makes little sense, but we can't control how he's used. He'll still have a very good year.

8. (tie) Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles (34): Yes, his 2012 season was tremendous and unsustainable, but he's not a bad pitcher. He's just struggling a bit but will figure things out.

10. Ernesto Frieri, Los Angeles Angels (33): It's not looking like Ryan Madson is close to joining the Angels, so Frieri likely will keep this job indefinitely. He walks batters, but he's also tough to hit.

Best of the rest: The top St. Louis Cardinals reliever is actually right-hander Trevor Rosenthal, a future starter. Edward Mujica is thriving, but I predict Rosenthal will have the job by September. … Huston Street is capable enough, but injuries have held him to less than 30 saves in five of the past six seasons. Trade him now before his next DL stint! … Rafael Soriano would seem to be a lock for 35 saves on a Washington Nationals team that figures to improve, but with two former closers setting him up, there's no way the organization would push Soriano with any kind of tweak in his arm, leg or any other body part. … Tom Wilhelmsen is certainly good enough to save 35 games. Are the Mariners good enough to give him that many chances, though?

Have a great weekend!

 

[HacheMan]

MLB draft impact fantasy players

By Jim Callis | Baseball America

By the time baseball's 2013 amateur draft began last night, five players from the 2012 draft had already reached the major leagues: righthanders Kevin Gausman (Baltimore Orioles) and Michael Wacha (St. Louis Cardinals) and lefties Paco Rodriguez (Los Angeles Dodgers), Alex Wood (Atlanta Braves) and Michael Roth (Los Angeles Angels).

First-round picks Gausman and Wacha could make significant contributions this season, highlighting how fast draftees can have an impact on both real and fantasy baseball. Here are six names from the 2013 draft who could help your fantasy team sooner rather than later, ranked in order of immediate impact.
<offer>1. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Chicago Cubs (taken no. 2 overall): Bryant has the best power in the 2013 draft, showing it off by slamming 31 homers this spring; that's as many or more long balls as 228 of the 296 NCAA Division I teams. He projects as a solid hitter with well above-average power, and he could crack the Cubs lineup as a third baseman or right fielder sometime in 2014.

2. Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros (No. 1 overall): The Astros nearly took Appel No. 1 overall in 2012 and did so yesterday. There's no question that he already has better stuff than anyone in Houston's rotation, and he could surface in Minute Maid Park by the end of this season if the club doesn't care about service time. His mid-90s fastball and his slider are both swing-and-miss offerings, and his changeup should give him an average third pitch.

3. Colin Moran, 3B, Miami Marlins (No. 6 overall): The most polished hitter in this year's draft, Moran is an on-base machine who should set up Giancarlo Stanton with plenty of RBI opportunities. He'll hit for a high average with decent power and probably could step in today and give the Marlins more offense than they're getting from Placido Polanco. Mid-2014 is a more realistic ETA.

4. D.J. Peterson, 3B/1B, Seattle Mariners (No. 12 overall): Bryant will hit more homers and Moran will hit for a higher average, but Peterson may have a better combination of the two skills than either of them. He recognizes pitches well and barrels them with ease, and he projects to provide more than enough offense at first base, his likely destination. However, Safeco Field has been a graveyard for top hitting prospects Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero and Justin Smoak.

5. Jonathan Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies (No. 3 overall): Baseball America's top-rated prospect in the 2013 draft, Gray has even better pure stuff than Appel with a heavy fastball that reaches 100 mph and a wipeout slider. He's not as polished as Appel, so Gray probably will require more time in the minors, and he doesn't have the most hospitable home park in Coors Field.

6. Cory Knebel, RHP, Detroit Tigers (No. 39 overall): One of the top college closers for the past three years, Knebel shouldn't require much minor league time before joining a big league club that's looking for someone who can consistently finish games. His main weapon is a 91-98 mph fastball, and he backs it up with a hard curveball. The deception in his delivery and his competitive nature help his stuff play up.


[h=2]Top 10 for 2013[/h]

[h=3]1. Tony Cingrani, LHP, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]Season totals: 3-0 record, 1.15 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 49 K's in 31 1/3 IP (6 starts) at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: How dominant has Cingrani been in Triple-A this year? When he struck out nine in seven innings on Sunday, he also allowed three runs, two more than the total he gave up in his first five Triple-A starts.
Prognosis: Added to the Reds rotation when ace Johnny Cueto went on the disabled list early in the season, Cingrani responded by going 2-0, 3.27 with a 1.03 WHIP and 41 K's in 33 innings. Cincinnati returned Cingrani to the minors after Cueto came back in late May, but the staff ace is out again and Cingrani will be called up this weekend. Major league hitters haven't been able to solve his fastball, so double-digit wins and plenty of strikeouts are possible if he stays in the big league rotation.


[h=3]2. Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays (Last week's rank: 5)[/h]
Season totals: .280/.356/.491, 10 HR, 49 RBI, 5 SB in 55 games at Triple-A Durham.
Update: The reigning International League player of the week, Myers finally got his bat going in late May and hasn't stopped hitting since. Five of his 10 homers have come in the past two weeks, and he's reclaiming his status as one of the game's best power prospects.
Prognosis: The Rays have kept Myers in the minors nearly long enough to guarantee he won't gain an extra year of arbitration eligibility. Regular DH Luke Scott is slumping, so Tampa Bay could give Myers a call-up as early as next week. There's still enough time for him to produce 15 big league homers this year, though his propensity for striking out will limit his batting average.

[h=3]3. Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Last week's rank: 7)[/h]Season totals: 5-3 record, 2.91 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 47 K's in 68 IP (12 starts) at Triple-A Indianapolis.
Update: Cole may be gaining the consistency that has eluded him all season. He has made two scoreless seven-inning starts in the last week, issuing just two walks in the process and snapping Myers' 12-game hitting streak on Wednesday.
Prognosis: With Jeanmar Gomez and Wandy Rodriguez sustaining injuries in the last week and the Pirates remaining in contention, they shouldn't wait much longer before promoting Cole. He'll be a more valuable fantasy contributor than Zack Wheeler in 2013, because Cole will play for a better club and therefore have a shot at more victories.


[h=3]4. Zack Wheeler, rhp, New York Mets (Last week's rank: 1)[/h]Season totals: 4-1, 3.86 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 59 K's in 58 1/3 IP (11 starts) at Triple-A Las Vegas.
Update: Wheeler turned in one of his best starts of the season last Saturday, allowing just four baserunners and one run while striking out six in as many innings. After one more minor league appearance, he's expected to make his major league debut next weekend against the Cubs.
Prognosis: While it's unclear whose spot in the Mets rotation he'll take, Wheeler should leave the minors in his rearview mirror. He won't make the immediate impact that Matt Harvey did as a rookie last year, but some scouts liked Wheeler more than Harvey when both were in the minors.


[h=3]5. Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians (Last week's rank: 2)[/h]Season totals: 2-2, 4.63 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 49 K's in 46.2 IP (eight starts) at Triple-A Columbus.
Update: Bauer's season of inconsistency continued on Monday, when he gave up a season-high nine hits and 12 baserunners in 5 2/3 innings. He has struggled since making his third big league start of the year on May 13, as he still hasn't harnessed a deep arsenal of quality pitches.
Prognosis: Corey Kluber isn't distinguishing himself in the back of the Indians rotation, leaving a spot for Bauer's taking. But he still needs to do a better job of locating his offerings before Cleveland will trust him in a playoff race.


[h=3]6. Nick Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]Season totals: .288/.359/.481, 9 HR, 32 RBI, 1 SB in 62 games at Triple-A Toledo.
Update: Castellanos has been on fire in June, going 11-for-25 (.440) with three homers. He already has nine homers after totaling 17 in his first two full pro seasons, and his plate discipline is improving as well as his power.
Prognosis: The Tigers haven't been able to pull away from the pack in a weak American League Central. One of the best hitting prospects in the minors, Castellanos would be an upgrade over Andy Dirks in left field and could make his big league debut in the next few weeks.


[h=3]7. Kyle Gibson, SP, Minnesota Twins (Last week's rank: 6)[/h]Season totals: 5-5 record, 3.34 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 63 K's in 72 2/3 IP (12 starts) at Triple-A Rochester.
Update: Gibson was on the verge of a big league call-up until he got knocked around in a May 30 outing. He got back on track on Tuesday with a quality start, his fourth in his last six tries.
Prognosis: The Twins desire a bit more consistency from Gibson, but they also should want a starter who can average more than 5.0 strikeouts per nine innings, and they don't even have one of those in their current rotation. When he safely passes the projected cutoff for "Super 2" arbitration in the next week or two, he could make his big league debut.

[h=3]8. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: 8)[/h]Season totals: .246/.313/.341, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 32 SB in 56 games at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: Baseball's quickest player continues to slog his way through a lackluster Triple-A season. Hamilton is stealing bases but not running with the same reckless abandon he did while setting a pro stolen base record (155) last year, and he has been slow to adjust to more advanced pitching while making the transition from center field to shortstop.
Prognosis: Donald Lutz is fizzling in a left-field platoon with Xavier Paul while Ryan Ludwick is sidelined. But the switch-hitting Hamilton isn't doing enough from the right side of the plate (.241/.247/.356) to grab Lutz's half of the time-share. Hamilton remains a fixture on our Top 10 nonetheless, because of his stolen-base potential.


[h=3]9. Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: 9)[/h]Season totals: .317/.351/.480, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 5 SB in 31 games at Triple-A Memphis.
Update: Taveras still hasn't played since May 12 after hurting his right ankle on while stealing a base. The Cardinals now are classifying the injury as a high ankle sprain, which is more serious than they initially though, and his return to the lineup isn't imminent.
Prognosis: He's hurt and he's blocked by three quality outfielders in St. Louis, but Taveras is the best prospect in baseball and capable of producing as soon as he steps into a big league lineup. So he'll remain on our Top 10.


[h=3]10. Jesse Biddle, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]Season totals: 3-5 record, 3.23 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 72 K's in 61 1/3 IP (11 starts) at Double-A Reading.
Update: The Phillies took a local high school product with their first-round pick in the 2010 draft, signing Biddle for $1.16 million as the 27th overall pick. He led the high Class A Florida State League with 151 strikeouts last season and has kicked his stuff and game up a notch this spring. Biddle has a solid fastball and sweeping curveball, and hitters just don't barrel the ball against him.
Prognosis:If the Phillies try to contend, Biddle could bolster the back of their rotation. If the club decides to play for the future and trade veterans for prospects, Biddle could plug a hole and give fans another reason to come to Citizens Bank Ballpark.

Dropped out (last week's rank): Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (10).Called up (last week's rank): Chris Archer, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays (3); Anthony Rendon, 3B/2B, Washington Nationals (4).
</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Closer Report: Gregerson gets his chance

Eric Karabell

For years, San Diego Padres right-hander Luke Gregerson has been discussed as one of the many top setup men on the verge of becoming a closer. Now that the opportunity has mercifully arrived, he deserves attention in all leagues. What, Huston Street got hurt? That never happens! Sarcasm aside, with closers, it’s generally about opportunity first and skills second, and Gregerson does have that flashy sub-1.00 ERA. It’s just not going to stay there.

It’s generally wise to add new closers to your team whether you covet the saves or not, because these guys tend to make terrific trade bait. Put Gregerson near the top of that sell-high list. For one, Street will return from his sore calf -- it’s always something with him -- probably sometime later this month, and there’s little question about the relief hierarchy. Street certainly isn’t having a good season by any definition other than the saves -- which tell us nothing -- but he’s their guy, at least until the next injury or the team falls apart and trades him. Check back in late July for both scenarios, but they didn’t move him last year, so don’t expect they will in 2013.
Gregerson, however, has been a durable strikeout option for years, piling on the holds (if you’re into that sort of thing), one of those myriad right-handers who takes full advantage of spacious Petco Park and thrives. In general, he fits the profile of a potential future closer for being able to retire both left-handed and right-handed hitters with serious aplomb. Yes, in 2011 lefties stroked a .329 batting average against him, but a .400 BABIP played a role there. He didn’t allow a home run to a lefty that season. There’s little reason for concern if he continues to get opportunity. If Street doesn’t return, Gregerson could save 20 games.
Just be aware that there is risk here, which is why one should always consider how desperate another owner is for the saves, especially if they were in on the bidding or just a few minutes late to get help. Gregerson’s current xFIP nearly matches his 2012 mark of 3.30. He has pitched well above his expected numbers for years, but his strikeout rate has been inconsistent and it seems a wise time to add and sell. Gregerson saved a game over the weekend -- though it wasn’t pretty -- and won Thursday’s extra-inning affair, but the shiny 0.94 ERA is a mirage, as is his overall .160 BABIP. Plus, the role isn’t secure.
Still, he’s a closer by name and the most added pitcher in ESPN standard leagues, and that’s valuable. Gregerson ranks highly on my list of obvious sell-high closers, along with Heath Bell, Andrew Bailey, Kevin Gregg, Rex Brothers and yes, on a far different level because of pace and easy-to-sell Player Rater value, Jason Grilli (and any closer dominating to that level). Bell is still living precariously on the edge whenever a lefty hitter comes to the plate. There are, however, signs incumbent J.J. Putz could return in the next fortnight. Bailey is the AL version of San Diego’s Street; when’s the next DL stint coming? Gregg has permitted runs in two of three outings, the proverbial beginning of the end. Run away. We’re probably discussing 28-year-old right-hander Blake Parker getting save chances in a month for the Cubbies. Brothers has been awesome all season, but Rafael Betancourt is their guy when healthy. Perhaps one or two of these pitchers keeps the job, but your best bet is to minimize risk and maximize value.
As for other situations to watch, checking on the Los Angeles Dodgers is always meaningful. Brandon League, however, has had only one hiccup outing in the past two-plus weeks, and it came at Coors Field. Yes, Kenley Jansen is better, but I’d argue Yasiel Puig is better than Andre Ethier as well, but it hardly guarantees the youngster playing time if there’s one available starting spot. Nobody seems pleased by this, but I predicted League would save 30 games this year, and it’s looking realistic.
The situation with the Cleveland Indians bears watching as well, but let’s be clear about the value of fill-in closer Vinnie Pestano: It could easily be short-lived. Yes, Chris Perez is on the DL with a sore shoulder and then he added to the intrigue with some off-field issues, which could result in legal problems. That hardly means he won’t be getting a save chance this time next week. Legal situations like his often take time to figure out. Pestano’s work against lefty hitters also leaves quite a bit to be desired.
Finally, there are the awful Milwaukee Brewers. Francisco Rodriguez told me last weekend he has been promised nothing in terms of keeping the closer role, and hopes to stick with the team the rest of the summer, but he’d seem like perfect trade bait. I doubt a fantasy owner can get much for him, not like Gregerson. Regardless, incumbent closer Jim Henderson is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment this weekend from his hamstring injury, and expectations are he resumes the ninth-inning role immediately. If you need saves and Gregerson is gone, see if Henderson is available. Saves are pending.