MLB Fantasy News 2013

[HacheMan]

A burgeoning belief in Yasiel Puig

Buster Olney

Vin Scully has been doing his job since 1950, which means he saw Jackie Robinson steal home, witnessed a perfect game by Sandy Koufax, and was there when Kirk Gibson hit one of the most incredible home runs in baseball history. So if you can amaze the great Dodgers broadcaster, well, that’s saying something.

And this is what Scully said after the latest feat by Yasiel Puig, on Thursday night: “I don’t believe it!” (You can hear it here.)

Puig has been in the big leagues four days and so far all he has done is hit three homers, including a two-run shot, a three-run homer, and then Thursday’s crushing grand slam. <!--offer-->

According to Elias Sports Bureau, that makes Puig just the third player since 1900 with three homers, including a grand slam, in his first four career games.

In spring training, Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said that Puig is one of those players you can’t take your eyes off, a perfect description. He hits, he hits with power, he throws and he runs, at full speed, all the time.

But in conversation Wednesday, Colletti said that through Puig’s very short time in professional baseball -- remember, he only signed with the Dodgers 342 days ago -- he has quickly learned to slow the game down, this while going full speed. He has waited on breaking pitches; he has taken the ball to the opposite field. Puig has been known as a hyperaggressive hitter and so one of the biggest questions about him is whether he’ll constantly put himself in ball-strike holes, as former top prospect Delmon Young has done in his career, by chasing pitches out of the zone. After all, Puig went through all of spring training without drawing a walk, and he has 27 walks in 278 plate appearances in pro baseball -- which is a low rate, but workable.

So far, so good.

Puig is really a six-tool player: He is a style master, with the bouncing neck chain and the garish mannerisms and gestures. He seems born for the stage, and born to play on a baseball team in L.A.; he is the Dodgers’ one-man version of Showtime, so far, on a team owned by the leader of Showtime, Magic Johnson.

Inevitably, he’s probably going to annoy players on other teams. But my guess is that he already has dealt with that. My guess is it won’t bother him, or the Dodgers, if he continues to do things that amaze even Vin Scully.

From ESPN Stats & Information: Puig’s three homers have come against three types of pitches, and they’ve all come with the Dodgers trailing or ahead by just a run. And all three have been on the first or second pitch of the at-bat.

Homer No. 1: Tuesday, fifth inning vs. the Padres, he hit a three-run homer off a 94 mph fastball, to tie the score.
Homer No. 2: Tuesday, sixth inning vs. the Padres, he hit a two-run homer off an 85 mph changeup.
Homer No. 3: Thursday, eighth inning vs. the Braves, he clubbed a grand slam off an 81 mph slider, with the bases loaded and the Dodgers clinging to an 1-0 lead.

Elsewhere for the Dodgers, Zack Greinke was really good too, nicking the corners. From Stats & Info, how Greinke won:

A. He threw 56 percent offspeed pitches, his most in a game since the start of the 2009 season.
B. He got five strikeouts with his offspeed pitches (changeup, curveball and slider); he had four total in his first six starts this season.

Cory Gearrin gave up Puig’s grand slam, and the Braves lost the first game of the series. He has allowed 24 hits and nine walks in 25 1/3 innings, with 18 strikeouts, which are not the numbers of most eighth-inning guys, who usually have a lot of swing-and-miss capability. He’s either going to have to perform better in that role or they’ll have to find somebody else.

Notables

• Major League Baseball has a lot more witnesses than just Tony Bosch, writes Steve Marcus. They have asked for FedEx and phone records, reports the Associated Press, in an effort to close the net. MLB is set to meet with Bosch.

The Yankees would save big if Alex Rodriguez is banned next season, writes Ken Davidoff.

• We had Domonic Brown on Thursday’s podcast, and he talked about the mechanical adjustment that has changed the direction of his season ... and maybe his career.

MLB draft

• The new draft cap rules have created a lot of debate about what the best strategy should be, especially for the first selections. Last year, the Astros chose Carlos Correa, a highly regarded shortstop who was not viewed by many teams as the top player on the board, because they knew they could sign him for fewer dollars and then use the extra dollars to spend on other picks later in the draft. If the Astros had strictly taken the best player, other teams thought they could have gone for Mark Appel or Byron Buxton.

But in the end, the Astros got Appel, as well, to add to a growing cache of organizational talent; they will likely pick at or near the top of the draft next year, too, and brick by brick, they are building something meant to last.

For those who might think Appel will be in the big leagues soon, well, that seems really unlikely, because the Astros now will focus on the proper timing of the promotion of all of these prospects -- trying to use their major league service time in the best possible manner for the organization. From Brian Smith’s story:

“This is not a player we’re going to rush to the big leagues. This is a player who’s going to be here for a while,” Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow said. “As good as Pac-12 baseball is, professional baseball is harder, and the major leagues is a lot harder. ... He certainly is a guy who’s capable of moving quickly, based on his experience. But we’re not going to put any time frame on it.”​

In the end, Appel -- who is advised by Scott Boras -- will get more money in his signing bonus than he would have last year (Although he has delayed his time in professional baseball by a year).

Chip Bailey gives us a look at what the Astros’ projected rotation might be. Speaking of Houston prospects: The Astros just promoted Jonathan Singleton to Double-A.

Keith Law has a list of the picks he liked and those he didn’t like. More draft stuff, division by division:

AL Central

• The Tigers tend to draft Vanderbilt guys, and they did again.

• The Twins, not surprisingly, selected a pitcher with their first selection, as La Velle Neal writes.

• The White Sox drafted a shortstop.

• The Indians, picking fifth, went for a guy with a ton of power.

• The Royals’ decision to pick a shortstop was something of a surprise, as Dick Kaegel writes.

AL East

• The Rays took a catcher, as Marc Topkin writes.

• The Orioles took some high school kids.

• The Yankees had three of the first 33 picks.

• The Red Sox drafted a lefty with their first choice, writes Brian MacPherson.

• Toronto chose a pitcher, as Bob Elliott writes.

AL West

• The Rangers took a third baseman with the 30th pick, and a pitcher with the 23rd pick.

• The Mariners went for a big bat.

• Oakland chose a high school outfielder.

• The Angels picked 59th.

NL East

• The Braves took a pitcher.

• The Mets selected a young slugger.

• Miami took a highly touted third baseman.

• The Phillies took a shortstop.

NL Central

• The Cubs nabbed a young power hitter.

• The Pirates added two more high-end guys to their growing pool of talent.

• The Cardinals nabbed two left-handed pitchers with their first-round selections.

• The Brewers had a long wait, writes Tom Haudricourt.

• The Reds grabbed an outfielder.

NL West

• The Rockies selected a high-end pitcher who had a positive drug test.

• The Dodgers went for pitchers from Minnesota, as J.P. Hoornstra writes.

• The Padres took a college slugger.

• Arizona was thrilled to get the pitcher it got, writes Steve Gilbert.

• The Giants drafted a self-described math geek.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. To help prepare Zack Wheeler for his promotion to the big leagues, Mets PR guru Jay Horwitz traveled to join him.

2. Jim Leyland says Rick Porcello will not be closing, for now.

Dings and dents

1.Bryce Harper is going to see Dr. Andrews. Not good. The outfield wall always wins.
Cal Ripken knew this, back in 1995.

2. The Rays are coping with another injury to a pitcher.

3.Ross Detwiler is preparing for his rehab start, writes Adam Kilgore.

4.Jacoby Ellsbury was back in the lineup.

5.Chris Carpenter says he still has a ways to go. But he’s getting there.

6.Dustin McGowan is again trying to write a happy ending, writes John Lott.

Other stuff

• Nelson Cruz could be facing a suspension and Ian Kinsler has an opportunity to do something selfless and embrace a position change, says Tim Cowlishaw. Even separate of that, Kinsler could prepare to play first base, as well as the outfield, because it’s evident that Jurickson Profar needs to play. Kinsler has signed the big contract of his career, so shifting isn’t going to cost him money.

• Yoenis Cespedes and the Athletics are on a serious roll. That’s 17 wins in their past 20 games.

• Two missed calls hurt the Rockies, writes Troy Renck.

• Watched a lot of Max Scherzer’s outing against Tampa Bay Thursday, and he was outstanding.

• The Phillies are up and over .500. Michael Young batted leadoff.

• The Mets’ offense is a mess, writes Andrew Keh.

• The Cardinals flexed their muscles.

Shelby Miller has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all 13 career starts. That’s the second-longest such streak to begin a career in Cardinals history (Jaime Garcia did it in 15 straight).

• The Royals have a winning streak.

• The Diamondbacks’ focus on Didi Gregorius began with a scout.

• Ichiro was back in Seattle.

• David Ortiz won in style.

Ortiz hit a walk-off homer, the 11th of his career. That’s tied for seventh-most all time and just two short of Jim Thome’s major league record. From Elias: It’s the first time in his career Ortiz has homered after the batter in front of him was intentionally walked. It’s his 16th walk-off hit and 10th walk-off HR since joining the Red Sox in 2003, both the most in baseball in that span.

• Cool story by Amanda Comak on what one major league debut has meant to a mother.

And today will be better than yesterday.

 

[HacheMan]

Bits: Cameron Maybin returns with flourish

Eric Karabell

Welcome back, Cameron Maybin! Perhaps many of you weren’t aware that the San Diego Padres outfielder hadn’t played since mid-April with a wrist injury because he had been hitting only .091 after 10 games, but it’s true. He returned to the Padres lineup Thursday night and made quite an impression, getting a few hits, drawing a walk, knocking in two runs and showing aggressive tendencies by stealing two bases and being caught on another while hitting in the No. 7 spot.

Maybin’s fantasy value tends to elicit various degrees of opinion. While he has never really been the coveted player he was expected to be when he made his big league debut for the Detroit Tigers at the ripe age of 20, and then being the big return in the noteworthy Miguel Cabrera trade from the Marlins, he’s certainly brought value with his speed, as well as the lure of upside. Some of his value has been offset by low batting averages, and it’s fair at this point to assume he’ll never be enough of a contact hitter or power option -- especially playing home games at Petco Park -- to be a star. But now that his wrist is healthy -- and we can presume it wasn’t the first two weeks when he had only three hits in 33 at-bats -- he does warrant attention.
Owned in a mere 13 percent of ESPN standard leagues, Maybin finished the 2012 season as fantasy’s No. 68 outfielder on the Player Rater, stealing 26 bases but hurting owners with a .243 batting average. He was easily a top-50 outfield option in 2011 when he hit a respectable .264 with 40 stolen bases and 82 runs scored. Which Maybin is the real one? Well, he’s 26 now and we’d like to think he has more to offer, but he’s never hit double-digit home runs in the majors and his career batting average is a below average .248. He’s basically an attractive base stealer at this point, and in that regard Thursday was a good sign. He ran a lot.
Esteemed colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft left Maybin out of his top 150 hitters in this week’s Hit Parade column, but that’s likely to change next week. It’s not as easy comparing Maybin to slow power hitters; it depends on fantasy team need. However, in a vacuum I’d prefer Maybin, who could easily steal more than 25 bases and hit close to 10 home runs the final four months, to fellow outfielders Andre Ethier, Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, Andy Dirks, Daniel Nava, Matt Joyce and Marcell Ozuna. I’m expecting Maybin to be popular on free agency the next week, especially with the league-wide rate of stolen bases down so much.
Meanwhile, the Padres were reportedly planning on sending the very tall Kyle Blanks to the minor leagues, but in a surprise, first baseman Yonder Alonso hit the DL with a hand injury instead. Blanks has been on my watch list for years, and upon promotion this season -- pretty much when Maybin got hurt -- he homered in his third start, but managed only three more over the next 100 plate appearances. With his strike zone management and raw strength, this guy should be hitting for far better power, regardless of home ballpark. Alonso’s injury keeps Blanks in the bigs, and he’s a close second to Carlos Quentin in team OPS (.817 to .810). Still, I can’t make much of a case to roster Blanks anymore in 10- or 12-team leagues, just as it was tough to like Alonso, on pace for only 16 home runs, but if the power really comes soon -- you know, the Domonic Brown power -- then buy in immediately.
Box score bits (NL): Speaking of steals, Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun stole his fourth base Thursday, second in a week. Hey, it’s a start. Oh, and I hear he’s involved in something off the field, too. I’m not selling. … Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Michael Young led off Thursday’s game, his first time in the role in nine years. Young hit three singles and against right-handed pitching probably won’t lead off. At this point, it’s doubtful Young even approaches 10 home runs or 60 RBIs. … Hope you didn’t have Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Ian Kennedy active Thursday: He was left on the mound to permit 13 hits and 10 earned runs in four innings. Kennedy had actually been pitching better of late, with 20 strikeouts in his past 18 innings. I’d buy low, actually. … Colorado Rockies catcher Wilin Rosario cooled off quickly after a big April, but he homered Thursday night. With 30-home run power, he’s still a top-10 catcher for me.
Box score bits (AL): Texas Rangers first baseman Mitch Moreland was placed on the DL Thursday with a hamstring injury, resulting in promotion for Chris McGuiness, the Arizona Fall League MVP. I speculated in early March that McGuiness would break out for the Cleveland Indians after being plucked in the Rule 5 draft, but they returned him to the Rangers, where he was hitting .275 at Triple-A Round Rock. This is likely a short-term look, but with Lance Berkman not hitting and not exactly durable, one should spend a buck or two in AL-only formats just in case. … Boston Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury returned to the lineup after missing a week with a groin injury apparently suffered in his five-steal game in Philly. Ellsbury produced four hits, but no stolen bases, and didn’t look 100 percent healthy. Get him into lineups immediately, at least until the next bout of missed games. … Similarly, it had been a while since anyone saw Seattle Mariners outfielder Michael Morse play, eight games to be exact. Morse (quad) cooled off quickly after hitting six home runs in the first 10 games of April, but he’s still capable of 30 home runs, if you need that sort of thing.

 

[HacheMan]

Injury updates: Braun, Kemp, Stanton, more

Stephania Bell

Every Monday, in this space, we'll provide updates on a variety of players to help you make your weekly lineup decisions. We'll specifically try to hit the players who are day-to-day, have just gone on the DL or are ready to return, so that you can better decide whether you can count on them or not.

All projected return timelines should be considered fluid.

Hitters

Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals (placed on DL retroactive to May 27): Last week, Harper was officially placed on the DL (backdated to his last appearance); this week he’s hoping he can come off of it. That sounds a little optimistic given that Harper is traveling to Pensacola, Fla., to pay a visit to Dr. James Andrews for a consultation. That appointment was scheduled when Harper’s irritated knee appeared to be making no progress. In recent days, he seems to have turned a corner according to the Washington Times. Harper had been running in the pool but the Times reports he stopped that activity and the discomfort has subsided. Still, Harper will be evaluated by Andrews Monday after which more information should be forthcoming. As of now, it’s worth keeping an eye on his activity this week to see if he is cleared to do more intense workouts. But if running in the pool was bothering him, it’s hard to imagine running on land will be smooth sailing out of the gate.

Matt Kemp, OF (placed on DL May 30), Hanley Ramirez, SS (day-to-day), Carl Crawford, OF (placed on DL June 2), Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers’ collective hamstring woes are the ultimate example of how difficult these injuries are to manage. After missing five weeks following thumb surgery, Ramirez returned for a few days, then missed another month with his hamstring strain. The team wanted to be very careful about bringing him back, especially with Kemp and then Crawford suffering similar, albeit lesser, injuries of their own. This is how I described the Ramirez situation last week: What the Dodgers cannot afford is for Ramirez to return and reinjure himself. Obviously there are no guarantees but the team at least needs to feel comfortable they have seen enough in his rehab outings to suggest his leg is ready for prime time.

Well, Ramirez was back only one day before experiencing tightness in his left hamstring. Although he was out of the starting lineup for several consecutive days, he did make pinch-hit appearances. Ramirez is getting repeat imaging on that leg however, given that it remains bothersome. This was exactly the situation the Dodgers were trying to avoid. Ramirez played in a handful of rehab games exhibiting nothing that would hint at his being less than ready to return. Still, as we often say, until an athlete has returned to his prior level of play for a few weeks without incident following a hamstring injury, it’s difficult to exhale and believe the problem is truly behind him.

And Ramirez is not the only one. When Kemp was first injured roughly 10 days ago, there was some initial thought he might not even require a DL stint, given his hamstring symptoms were so minor. It looked as if 15 days would be more than enough time to recover. Apparently not. The Dodgers’ official website reports Kemp’s right hamstring bothered him enough during pregame workouts Sunday that he does not look to be ready to return. The team originally anticipated having him back Friday; now it’s unclear just when a return could come. Manager Don Mattingly offered this: “We're not where we need to be with him. We do know that he's not 100 percent." Whether Kemp is apprehensive given his recent injury woes and struggles at the plate or whether there is more significance to the injury is unclear.

In the meantime, fellow outfielder Crawford was officially placed on the DL last Monday (retroactive to June 2) with a hamstring injury Mattingly characterized as “fairly significant” after it had originally been described by the team as a cramp. It certainly looks as if his absence will extend beyond the 15-day minimum.

At this point there is no real timetable on ANY of these players. The team has to be hoping that Yasiel Puig, whose brilliant performance since being called up at least provides a temporary distraction from the injuries, remains immune to the hammie bug.

Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (day-to-day): It has not been a good week for Braun on multiple fronts, including the injury department. Braun has had a thumb ailment which has been giving him intermittent trouble over the last month. On Sunday, he was removed from the game in the third inning and his words hinted at perhaps more extended time off. After the game, Braun told reporters he should have taken steps to address it sooner. "From the very beginning, I should have taken more time off and gotten it right," said Braun. "But I just continued to try to fight through it, play through it. It's at the point where it doesn't feel very good.” No specifics have been revealed as to the nature of Braun’s thumb injury other than “soreness,” making it difficult to ascertain just how much time it could cost him for it to completely heal. Braun has indicated on prior occasions that he has made adjustments to his swing but clearly it hasn’t gone away. The timing may be right for a DL move.

Austin Jackson, OF, Tigers (placed on DL retroactive to May 12, could return soon): Last week it sounded as if Jackson might return but I did caution it could get postponed. The Tigers opted not to send Jackson on a rehab assignment until he progressed further with his running, something he did to the team’s satisfaction last week, according to MLive.com. Now the Tigers are officially sending him out on assignment with a specific plan that will have him increase his activity over several days. While the team is allowing for flexibility in his rehab appearance schedule based on how the hamstring responds, Jackson could potentially return to the big league club by late next week.

Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins (placed on DL April 30, could return Monday): When Stanton went down with a hamstring injury, it immediately looked serious. A June return seemed most plausible. After missing multiple weeks and a seemingly (yet understandably) slow rehab process, suddenly Stanton’s imminent return feels a bit hurried. Stanton only just embarked on a rehab assignment last Tuesday and got off to a slow start at the plate but was able to play on back-to-back days. Because of inclement weather, Stanton lost a couple of game opportunities in the middle of the week. The Palm Beach Post reports Stanton could return Monday, according to manager Mike Redmond. While Monday was floated as a potential target when Stanton entered a rehab assignment, the missed days because of weather seemingly would have delayed his return. According to the Post, Redmond indicated Stanton could return because Casey Kotchman might be unavailable because of sore ribs. Surely the Marlins would not activate Stanton unless they thought he was out of the woods with the hamstring. Or would they? The Dodgers’ recent challenges with players returning from hamstring injuries even on a conservative timetable would be a warning. Stanton may return Monday and he may ultimately return without incident but it seems like a big “if.” Given how serious his injury looked when he originally went down while sprinting to first base, it’s going to take some convincing -- as in a few weeks of no setbacks -- before the specter of potential reinjury fades.

Pablo Sandoval, 3B, San Francisco Giants (day-to-day): Last week, we talked about Sandoval’s vague diagnosis related to his foot and that he was quite literally day-to-day. On Saturday, Sandoval aggravated his foot injury during his first at-bat and did not play Sunday. The natural next question is whether this setback will lead to a turn on the DL. According to the San Jose Mercury News, manager Bruce Bochy said, “The DL is a possibility.” Sandoval, who is in a walking boot, has an injury on the outside of his left foot, according to the Mercury News (although it is still unclear which structure then is compromised). Sandoval is not tiny and between the torsion through his foot when swinging the bat and the pounding it absorbs while running, the demands are fairly high. A more extended absence may be in his future.

Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Boston Red Sox (placed on DL May 24, likely return this week): Middlebrooks expressed optimism from the outset that he would return when eligible, or close to it. After some solid outings at Triple-A Pawtucket, it appears his return is near. According to the Providence Journal, manager John Farrell has made it clear what his role will be when he does rejoin the lineup. "Will's our third baseman," Farrell said. The team has not indicated precisely when Middlebrooks is expected to return but fantasy owners should keep an eye on any potential roster move. His uneventful recovery from this episode of back spasms -- and his performance at the plate during his rehab games -- warrants inserting him in fantasy lineups immediately upon return.

Jedd Gyorko, 2B, San Diego Padres (day-to-day): Gyorko exited Sunday’s game in the middle of the 10th inning with what the team is referring to as soreness in his right groin. He apparently suffered the injury just prior to sliding into second base, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune. Although Gyorko hoped it wasn’t severe, Padres manager Bud Black was less clear. “We’re not sure what it is,” said Black, “a strain, a pull, a cramp. But he had to come out of the game.” Gyorko is likely to undergo further evaluation Monday to determine whether a DL stint will be necessary. Awkward slides or missteps heading into slides have proved to be problematic for several players this year, a reminder that seemingly benign maneuvers can still result in injury. Fantasy owners should prepare for at least a couple of missed days for Gyorko, if not a little longer.

Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals (placed on DL retroactive to June 1, expected return June 16): Last week we discussed the nature of Strasburg’s injury and the concern the Nationals likely had about him compromising his shoulder if he played through it. That concern translated to a formal DL-designation for Strasburg later in the week after soreness kept him from attempting a Wednesday bullpen session. The reported non-severe nature of the lat strain also proved to be true as Strasburg was able to complete a throwing session just three days later. If all continues well with his program this week, Strasburg will make his next start on June 16, the first day he is eligible to return.

Clay Buchholz, SP, Boston Red Sox (day-to-day): A couple weeks ago, it was an irritated AC joint after sleeping awkwardly that forced Buchholz to miss a start. After a successful return outing, Buchholz left his subsequent start prematurely due to tightness in his neck. Are the two related? It’s hard to say with any degree of certainty. Certainly the neck and the shoulder are closely integrated in the throwing motion, but these can still be separate issues. Nonetheless, one of the concerns when Buchholz was dealing with the AC soreness was whether he was compensating for the shoulder. In an effort to prevent any significant change in his throwing mechanics, Buchholz was scratched from one start, then delayed for his next start. He seemed to be past the issue with his shoulder, but it’s certainly possible that subtleties from one injury contributed to how he was throwing. The close timing of the two injuries also hints at some relationship, even if a specific cause-and-effect mechanism is difficult to determine. In any event, Buchholz has indicated he will take every measure to ensure he’s fully healthy before attempting a return but for right now it does not appear that will involve a move to the DL.

Alexi Ogando, SP, Texas Rangers (placed on DL retroactive to June 6): Ogando returned from the DL for one start … and then went right back. After missing a month with biceps tendinitis, Ogando is back on the DL with what is simply being termed right shoulder inflammation. The concerns are fairly obvious. Back-to-back moves to the DL for a pitcher with a shoulder injury is never a good sign. More concerning is what it might mean from a structural standpoint. Often a diagnosis of biceps tendinitis (at the shoulder) signals a problem with the labrum, given their interface at the shoulder. An MRI in mid-May when Ogando hit the DL the first time reportedly revealed no structural issues, although the nuances of what is observed on imaging may be subtle. This is not to suggest his season is necessarily threatened but it wouldn’t be surprising if he is sidelined for a bit longer this time to help guard against yet another setback. The bigger question long-term may be how his role is modified, if at all, when he returns.

Daniel Hudson, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (on DL to start season, no timetable for return): In what may be the sad news of the week when it comes to injuries, Hudson reportedly suffered another tear in his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL), according to the Diamondbacks. Hudson was 11 months post-Tommy John surgery and was in the phase of rehab starts as he prepared to return to the majors. After feeling discomfort in his throwing elbow following his first rehab start Tuesday night, subsequent evaluation revealed the injury. The Diamondbacks have indicated they are exploring all medical options, but Hudson will first consult with Dr. James Andrews. While the initial news sounds dire, it is worth waiting to see the results of his consultation before presuming the worst-case scenario of yet another procedure.

 

[HacheMan]

Bits: Ike Davis sent down to Triple-A

Eric Karabell

Enough was mercifully enough for the New York Mets and their once-slugging first baseman Ike Davis on Sunday, as yet another hitless performance prompted the organization to finally demote to Triple-A Las Vegas a guy who blasted 32 home runs last season. It’s quite a fall from grace for a player who was chosen in the top 100 of ESPN live drafts (96th overall, to be exact), but I have to admit, I won’t be at all surprised when he’s back helping fantasy owners again soon.

Put simply, any power hitter dragging a batting average on the wrong side of .200 is someone I generally inquire about buying low on for deeper leagues, because it’s rare that a player completes a full season with such an ugly mark. In fact, Carlos Pena was the only hitter qualified for the batting title to hit below .200 last year, and he and Mark Reynolds achieved this ignominy in 2010. It’s not common. Adam Dunn didn’t qualify when he hit .164 in 2011, but you get the point. All these players bring power potential, and that includes the intriguing Davis. Yes, I wanted no part of him in any league Saturday, but now that he’s demoted, you can buy low in an NL-only format or deep mixed because the skill set is a proven one.
Whatever is wrong with Davis' swing -- and/or his confidence -- can be fixed. The popular thought by many a fantasy owner was that Davis would simply perform as he did a season ago, as patient owners were rewarded when his brutal first two months (.169 batting average, five home runs) was followed by four months of power among the best in the game and a reasonable enough batting average. Davis looked lost at the plate recently, but it’s not like the Mets have the next Lou Gehrig stepping in to replace him. If Davis can turn things around -- everyone hits in Las Vegas -- then it shouldn’t be a long-term trip. The current Las Vegas 51s are hitting .282 with a .816 OPS as a team. Davis should restore some confidence there.
I’ve long since moved on from Davis in a 10- or 12-team format, and he is owned in roughly a quarter of leagues in ESPN standard formats. I don’t see how there’s much risk now. Would you be interested in a player who mashed 20 home runs after the All-Star break in 2012? Only four players topped that mark: the great Miguel Cabrera, the emerging Chase Headley, the reliable Adrian Beltre and fellow struggler B.J. Upton. Really, those who own the Atlanta Braves center fielder should hope for the same result as with Davis. Get his daily at-bats off my fantasy team but fix what is wrong, because there is hope. Upton hit 21 home runs and stole 16 bases in 299 at-bats after the break last season. That’s tremendous. He batted .244 in that span, but that’s easily overlooked with the counting numbers. He was the 49th pick in ESPN average live drafts. While I’m all for moving on from draft-day mistakes by June, the fact is these top-100 options have proven upside, and the investment should be small at this point.
As for the beleaguered Mets, how they handle first base is interesting, at least to me. Josh Satin was called up from Las Vegas, and while he’s no prospect, the 28-year-old had 43 walks and 45 strikeouts in the minors, and this plate discipline is nothing new. Perhaps Daniel Murphy moves from second base to first and Jordany Valdespin finally gets regular at-bats. The often raw, unfocused Valdespin profiles as an intriguing power/speed combination, and it’s easy to see a 12-homer, 15-steal middle infielder lurking. The Mets really should see what they have in younger talents like Valdespin and outfielders Collin Cowgill and Juan Lagares rather than play the likes of Justin Turner, Marlon Byrd, Omar Quintanilla and the recently dumped Rick Ankiel. Fantasy owners should pay attention because Valdespin and Cowgill in particular could become popular soon.
Box score bits (NL): Washington Nationals infielder Anthony Rendon had three hits and three RBIs in the doubleheader sweep of the Minnesota Twins on Sunday but also made a pair of errors at second base. Rendon is a week from adding this new and valuable eligibility in ESPN leagues, but whether his bat offsets his glove long-term when Danny Espinosa is healthy is another story. … Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Kyle Lohse won his second game in 12 starts, allowing the Philadelphia Phillies one run over eight innings. Lohse isn’t 10-team-worthy, but he’s not a bad buy-low option. … Pittsburgh Pirates lefty Jeff Locke allowed only one hit and one run to the Chicago Cubs Sunday, although he walked seven in another no-decision. Locke continues to avoid home runs and runs overall; his ERA is 2.39. Still, I can’t sell high fast enough on this surprise, as major regression is coming. … San Francisco Giants right-hander Chad Gaudin is a surprise, winning starts at St. Louis and Arizona this past week. On Sunday, Gaudin, who hadn’t started in the majors in four years, fanned seven in six strong innings. Gaudin’s career WHIP is 1.49. Choose someone else.
Box score bits (AL): Boston Red Sox infielder Jose Iglesias produced two more hits Sunday, raising his batting average to .446 through 74 at-bats. Of course, the defensive-minded Iglesias was hitting .202 for Triple-A Pawtucket. If you’ve added Iglesias lately, you’ve probably trusted a mirage. Sell fast. … Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Adam Lind launched a three-run homer Sunday and raised his season batting average to a lofty .340. Lind has three hits or more in half of his past eight games. … Detroit Tigers lefty Jose Alvarez won in his big league debut, allowing three hits and a run over six innings. Alvarez was sent back to Triple-A Toledo after the game, but he’s having a terrific season and is a candidate for recall and deep league interest. … New York Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira fanned four times in five at-bats Sunday. Teixeira is hitting .167 through 10 games since coming off the DL. He does have three home runs, but is it worth it?

 

[HacheMan]

Five buy-low pitching options

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

I love a good garage sale.

It may be other people's junk, but as the saying goes, sometimes -- sometimes -- hidden beneath is treasure. (No, please don't take this as an invitation to offer me your collection of "Star Trek: The Next Generation" place mats, or your stockpile of VHS workout tapes. Seriously, I'm not interested.)


Many a time I've unearthed a gem: Like the 5,000-count box of 1976 Topps cards a guy just wanted out of his garage because he needed the space; like the signed Al Hirschfeld print sold because its prior owner had no idea nor cared who he was; like the $1 1977 New York Yankees world champions plaque that a guy at a card show later told me he'd sell me (his; I still had one) for "only" $150. Heck, my desktop printer came from a garage sale, only because its previous owner had bought an extra and then decided he didn't want two.

No, none of these finds come even close to that of a Renoir painting -- yeah, that really happened -- but they're items I treasured, items in which I saw hidden value where others could not.

It's a similar endeavor in fantasy baseball leagues when you're sifting through the trade market. Besides filling needs, you're attempting to find value where others might not, an exercise we've for years called the "buy-low trade." The idea is to identify players with low perceived values, or at least beneath the player's true value, whom you can acquire on the cheap.

So as we go garage sale-ing, if you will, the following five pitchers are the treasures I'm most seeking in trade. They are the players I think will provide you more than 10 spots in additional value beyond their perceived price tags.

And I'll stress that if you own any of these pitchers, close your garage door before I -- or any rival fantasy owner -- stops by. Come to think of it, perhaps that's why I'm so much more interested in attending garage sales than hosting my own; who wants to give away their treasures anyway?

[h=3]Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies[/h]

Hamels

Is there something in the cheesesteaks that makes pitchers inexplicably unlucky in the win column? A year after Cliff Lee won six games, the fewest by any 200-strikeout pitcher in baseball history, teammate Cole Hamels finds himself on pace for only five victories … to go with 195 whiffs.

Hamels has seven non-win quality starts, a pace of 18; Lee had a major league high 15 last season. (As an aside, James Shields is currently the major league leader with 10; Hamels ranks second.) And while Hamels' ERA (4.56) and WHIP (1.28) aren't as sparkling as Lee's were on this date a year ago (3.18 and 1.05), Hamels' peripherals suggest that he's dealing with all sorts of correctable bad luck.

Take a look at his stats in some key categories:

2013: 69.1 LOB%, 90.9 AVG fastball/cutter mph, 27 Miss%, .161 WHAV
2012: 78.1 LOB%, 90.4 AVG fastball/cutter mph, 28 Miss%, .172 WHAV
2011: 78.4 LOB%, 90.6 AVG fastball/cutter mph, 26 Miss%, .169 WHAV

The most noticeable decline in Hamels' game this year has been his control; his 7.5 percent walk rate (as a percentage of batters faced) and 2.89 walks per nine innings ratio are his highest since his rookie year of 2006. That said, he has but four walks in his past five appearances -- those resulting in a 3.1 percent rate and 1.23 walks-per-nine -- so the case could be made that Hamels is already back on track. His one win and 5.22 ERA in those games, however, probably much more likely caught his owners' eye. Chances are his owners are losing their patience, even if to date he remains owned in every ESPN league.

Hamels' numbers from 2010-12 were remarkably consistent, and if his perceived value has suffered from either an unexpectedly ordinary start to 2013 or something as silly as a "Cliff Lee comparison" -- same team, so same bad wins luck -- then it's time to pounce. I don't rank him as this because his market price has slipped beneath this, plus the walk rate warrants watching, but Hamels has an outstanding chance at ranking one of the 10 best fantasy starters from today forward.

[h=3]Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds[/h]

Bailey

Justin Verlander will get all the press for having a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching score) more than a run lower than his ERA, but Bailey's differential in those categories is similar -- and he's without question the buy-low candidate of these two. Why? Simple: Verlander is too obvious a name, with too lengthy a track record of success, for any of his owners to doubt him.

Bailey, meanwhile, has never been a fantasy ace at any stage of his career, but his peripherals say that he has pitched like one. He has the majors' ninth-best qualified FIP (2.56), and the 11th-best qualified xFIP (3.05), the latter correcting for what has been an unexpectedly low 0.43 home runs per nine innings ratio by the right-hander. Bailey also has struck out as many batters (83) as he has pitched innings (83), his 9.00 K/9 ratio is the highest at any career stop (10 or more starts) since he had a 10.19 mark in 13 turns in Double-A in 2006.

Like Hamels, Bailey has suffered from oddly poor luck -- especially because his Reds rank among the top 10 teams in baseball in runs scored -- as he has five quality starts in which he failed to notch a win, in four of those pitching seven innings or more. Keith Law's No. 9 prospect entering his rookie year of 2008, Bailey has finally emerged as a potential front-of-the-rotation starter, thanks to his addition of a two-seamer, and he's an excellent bet at ranking one of the 25 best starters in fantasy moving forward.

[h=3]Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles[/h]

Tillman

Go ahead, say that Tillman has already realized his expectations as a mini-breakthrough player for 2013, and that there isn't much room left to grow.

I disagree.

Two things were behind Tillman's 15-start resurgence the final three months of 2012: He recaptured his fastball velocity (average of 92.3 mph), and he continued to perfect a cutter/slider to deepen his arsenal. Granted, Tillman's fastball velocity has slipped to 91.8 mph on average this season, but I ask: What if he's one of the many pitchers who gains velocity as the summer progresses? To that end, he has averaged 92.5 mph with the pitch in his past four starts combined, during which time he has a 9.53 K/9 ratio.

Tillman's 20.2 percent ownership in ESPN leagues shows that he still has his share of skeptics, but his career arrow is pointing upward. In his price range, he has about the best odds of a top-25-starter season.

[h=3]Phil Hughes, New York Yankees[/h]

Hughes

Wow, a Yankees player might have low perceived value? Believe it.

Fantasy owners generally shy from Yankees pitchers -- ask Hiroki Kuroda's doubters during the 2012 preseason a little bit about that -- because of their bandbox home ballpark, and Hughes' career 1.79 homers-per-nine ratio at Yankee Stadium give them every reason to do so. He is a frustrating pitcher to own because of his gopher-itis, but at the same time, he continues to make small advances with his command and he has plenty of motivation -- he's a free agent at season's end.

Hughes' 3.65 K-to-walk ratio is his best in any of his seven big league seasons, and his miss rate on swings has risen again this year (21 percent), after taking a significant step forward last year (20 percent, up nearly 6 percent). Barring his signing in San Diego, Seattle or with the New York Mets in 2014, Hughes will never contend for an ERA crown. However, he is edging ever closer to a strikeout-per-inning average, and if he can keep his ERA beneath 4.00 he'll be a top-40 starter going forward.

[h=3]Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox[/h]

Reed

I've routinely been questioned for my generous ranking of Reed this season -- he was my No. 10-ranked pure relief pitcher entering the year and has landed within my top five in this space -- which hints that fantasy owners don't truly appreciate what's developing in the ninth inning in Chicago this year.

Reed is fourth in the majors in saves (19), eighth among pure relief pitchers on our Player Rater and he has a 2.17 FIP that ranks 13th among qualified relievers (and that includes middle relievers). A strikeout artist during his college and minor league days, Reed has seen his K's return this season, his K/9 rebounding to 10.50 after a disappointing 8.84 showing as a rookie in 2012. He has done this in large part thanks to improved command of his slider; he has thrown it for strikes 12 percent more often and generated swings and misses 7 percent more often.

Reed's early-career issues follow the classic pattern of a young prospect working through adjustments, unsurprising for a fly ball pitcher who calls a hitter-friendly ballpark his home. His mistakes are more magnified as a result of U.S. Cellular Field's confines, but as he progresses he's likely to only improve his ERA contributions, the one thing holding him back from clear top-five closer potential in fantasy. On skills, he has a chance to get there … this year.

Best yet: You might get him for scarcely the price of a top-10 closer.

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[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For starter- or reliever-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<center>Rnk</center>	Player, Team	<center>Pos Rnk</center>	<center>Prev Rnk</center>	<center></center>	<center>Rnk</center>	Player	<center>Pos Rnk</center>	<center>Prev Rnk</center>
1	Clayton Kershaw, LAD	SP1	1		76	Andrew Bailey, Bos	RP22	79
2	Felix Hernandez, Sea	SP2	2		77	Kenley Jansen, LAD	RP23	77
3	Adam Wainwright, StL	SP3	3		78	Kevin Gregg, ChC	RP24	78
4	Justin Verlander, Det	SP4	4		79	Wandy Rodriguez, Pit	SP55	72
5	Yu Darvish, Tex	SP5	5		80	Yovani Gallardo, Mil	SP56	63
6	Cliff Lee, Phi	SP6	6		81	Trevor Cahill, Ari	SP57	66
7	Max Scherzer, Det	SP7	8		82	Jonathon Niese, NYM	SP58	73
8	Stephen Strasburg, Wsh	SP8	7		83	Jose Valverde, Det	RP25	83
9	Madison Bumgarner, SF	SP9	9		84	Brandon Beachy, Atl	SP59	85
10	Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh	SP10	11		85	Ryan Dempster, Bos	SP60	87
11	Craig Kimbrel, Atl	RP1	10		86	Huston Street, SD	RP26	84
12	Aroldis Chapman, Cin	RP2	12		87	Francisco Liriano, Pit	SP61	97
13	Cole Hamels, Phi	SP11	15		88	Jason Vargas, LAA	SP62	81
14	Matt Harvey, NYM	SP12	13		89	Rex Brothers, Col	RP27	107
15	Mariano Rivera, NYY	RP3	17		90	Ricky Nolasco, Mia	SP63	93
16	Chris Sale, CWS	SP13	14		91	Jeremy Hellickson, TB	SP64	91
17	Mike Minor, Atl	SP14	24		92	Chris Perez, Cle	RP28	92
18	Gio Gonzalez, Wsh	SP15	20		93	Jake Peavy, CWS	SP65	52
19	Anibal Sanchez, Det	SP16	18		94	Kyle Lohse, Mil	SP66	99
20	Zack Greinke, LAD	SP17	22		95	Zack Wheeler, NYM	SP67	117
21	Jered Weaver, LAA	SP18	21		96	Brandon League, LAD	RP29	101
22	Jeff Samardzija, ChC	SP19	23		97	Tim Hudson, Atl	SP68	100
23	CC Sabathia, NYY	SP20	25		98	Tony Cingrani, Cin	SP69	146
24	Matt Moore, TB	SP21	16		99	Dan Haren, Wsh	SP70	82
25	Mat Latos, Cin	SP22	27		100	Andrew Cashner, SD	SP71	89
26	Shelby Miller, StL	SP23	31		101	Trevor Rosenthal, StL	RP30	111
27	Jason Grilli, Pit	RP4	32		102	David Phelps, NYY	SP72	113
28	Jon Lester, Bos	SP24	19		103	Brandon Morrow, Tor	SP73	102
29	Addison Reed, CWS	RP5	29		104	Rafael Betancourt, Col	RP31	90
30	Clay Buchholz, Bos	SP25	35		105	Rick Porcello, Det	SP74	149
31	Matt Cain, SF	SP26	30		106	Andy Pettitte, NYY	SP75	112
32	Homer Bailey, Cin	SP27	40		107	Bartolo Colon, Oak	SP76	118
33	James Shields, KC	SP28	26		108	A.J. Griffin, Oak	SP77	106
34	Jonathan Papelbon, Phi	RP6	33		109	Jose Veras, Hou	RP32	108
35	Lance Lynn, StL	SP29	37		110	Jorge De La Rosa, Col	SP78	96
36	Hiroki Kuroda, NYY	SP30	34		111	Tim Lincecum, SF	SP79	116
37	Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea	SP31	39		112	Ian Kennedy, Ari	SP80	75
38	Johnny Cueto, Cin	SP32	28		113	Kyle Kendrick, Phi	SP81	122
39	Sergio Romo, SF	RP7	38		114	Travis Wood, ChC	SP82	110
40	Alex Cobb, TB	SP33	41		115	Dan Straily, Oak	SP83	129
41	Edward Mujica, StL	RP8	44		116	John Lackey, Bos	SP84	119
42	Rafael Soriano, Wsh	RP9	36		117	David Robertson, NYY	RP33	127
43	Joe Nathan, Tex	RP10	42		118	Mark Melancon, Pit	RP34	120
44	A.J. Burnett, Pit	SP34	43		119	Mike Leake, Cin	SP85	121
45	Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD	SP35	45		120	David Hernandez, Ari	RP35	114
46	David Price, TB	SP36	46		121	Luke Gregerson, SD	RP36	130
47	Glen Perkins, Min	RP11	48		122	Gerrit Cole, Pit	SP86	NR
48	Doug Fister, Det	SP37	47		123	Ryan Madson, LAA	RP37	123
49	Kris Medlen, Atl	SP38	56		124	Brandon McCarthy, Ari	SP87	98
50	Patrick Corbin, Ari	SP39	49		125	Jhoulys Chacin, Col	SP88	103
51	Fernando Rodney, TB	RP12	53		126	Joel Peralta, TB	RP38	131
52	Greg Holland, KC	RP13	57		127	Alexi Ogando, Tex	SP89	115
53	Jim Johnson, Bal	RP14	54		128	Felix Doubront, Bos	SP90	126
54	Julio Teheran, Atl	SP40	80		129	Vinnie Pestano, Cle	RP39	125
55	Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea	RP15	51		130	Ryan Cook, Oak	RP40	132
56	R.A. Dickey, Tor	SP41	61		131	Brett Anderson, Oak	SP91	135
57	Matt Garza, ChC	SP42	55		132	Bronson Arroyo, Cin	SP92	139
58	Derek Holland, Tex	SP43	50		133	Jeremy Guthrie, KC	SP93	128
59	Grant Balfour, Oak	RP16	60		134	Wade Miley, Ari	SP94	105
60	Tommy Milone, Oak	SP44	62		135	Bud Norris, Hou	SP95	134
61	Casey Janssen, Tor	RP17	59		136	Miguel Gonzalez, Bal	SP96	142
62	Chris Tillman, Bal	SP45	69		137	Jeff Locke, Pit	SP97	141
63	Jarrod Parker, Oak	SP46	71		138	Kevin Gausman, Bal	SP98	109
64	C.J. Wilson, LAA	SP47	58		139	Joaquin Benoit, Det	RP41	138
65	Jose Fernandez, Mia	SP48	68		140	John Danks, CWS	SP99	145
66	Michael Wacha, StL	SP49	64		141	Marco Estrada, Mil	SP100	104
67	Heath Bell, Ari	RP18	86		142	Jacob Turner, Mia	SP101	NR
68	Justin Masterson, Cle	SP50	65		143	Tyler Clippard, Wsh	RP42	NR
69	Bobby Parnell, NYM	RP19	67		144	Jose Quintana, CWS	SP102	124
70	Paul Maholm, Atl	SP51	70		145	Eric Stults, SD	SP103	NR
71	Josh Johnson, Tor	SP52	94		146	Hector Santiago, CWS	SP104	NR
72	Jim Henderson, Mil	RP20	95		147	Francisco Rodriguez, Mil	RP43	137
73	Ernesto Frieri, LAA	RP21	74		148	Steve Cishek, Mia	RP44	NR
74	Phil Hughes, NYY	SP53	88		149	Samuel Deduno, Min	SP105	NR
75	Ervin Santana, KC	SP54	76		150	Sean Doolittle, Oak	RP45	150

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>

 

[HacheMan]

What's wrong with Starlin Castro?

Eric Karabell

Monday was a big night for a potential future stud Chicago Cubs shortstop, as top prospect Javier Baez bashed four home runs in a 9-6 win for Class A Daytona over Fort Myers, becoming only the second Florida State League player in 94 years to hit four home runs in one game (Ryan Harvey in 2006). Alas, Baez, the organization’s top pick in 2011, is only 20 years old and probably years away from starring at Wrigley Field, but it hasn’t stopped Cubs fans from longing for his eventual promotion, because so many seem fed up with the current option.

In other news Monday night, current Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro, all of 23 years old and already boasting nearly 600 career hits and a few All-Star game appearances, was booed while going 1-for-4 and hitting seventh in a foggy 6-2 loss to the Cincinnati Reds. He has four hits in his past 42 at-bats.

Castro seems to have lost quite a few fans in the first two months this season, which seems premature; he wasn’t, incidentally, one of the top 30 picks in ESPN’s Franchise Player Draft a week ago, after being No. 9 a year earlier. Castro remains 100 percent owned in ESPN standard leagues, but his owners are making noise on message boards and Twitter: The fourth-round pick from ESPN live drafts and No. 3 shortstop is currently 24th among shortstops on the Player Rater, worse than Jayson Nix, Daniel Descalso, Pedro Florimon and the long-ago demoted Josh Rutledge.

It’s easy to forget today, with Castro nowhere near the hits leaderboard, that since he made his big league debut at 20 on May 7, 2010, only four players have more hits. The guy has been a consistent hit machine with emerging power and stolen base potential, and few shortstops have accomplished so much at such a young age. Yet he’s not hitting at the same level this season (especially of late) or performing well in the field, and it has caused Cubs fans and fantasy owners to reassess a player that seemed well on his way to stardom. So what’s gone wrong this season?

He was never a patient hitter to start with, and this season he’s walking less, striking out more and well, you know how that combination generally ends up. Castro is hitting .243. I’ve seen him a few times in the past week and his at-bats have been quicker than usual, but he’s always been aggressive. It’s also generally been tough to tell what his plan has been at the plate or if he cared much about it, but again, he’s 23 and a career .290 hitter. Castro -- and his Cubs teammates -- seemed to slog through Monday’s game against Reds right-hander Homer Bailey, with Castro striking out, lining out to second base and grounding out to second before smashing a rope RBI double to deep left field when the game was out of hand in the ninth inning.

One problem this year is Castro is making considerably less contact across the board on pitches in and out of the strike zone, and he is swinging less. His batted ball rates don’t show much deviation from past seasons, and there hasn’t been talk of injury. Frankly, it just looks like a player in a giant slump; Castro hit .277 in April and only .252 in May, and so far in June is struggling at .071. Still, it’s tough to bet against someone with this track record.

While fantasy owners haven’t parted ways with Castro yet, it’s probably coming if his June numbers continue. I can’t imagine a better middle infielder available on your league’s free agent list -- certainly the likes of Nix, Florimon and Descalso are not -- but sometimes giving up on a player means dealing him for 50 cents on the dollar. I wouldn’t do that, either. In fact, knowing Castro’s hit rates the past three seasons, it’s a wise time to try to acquire him from an impatient owner. The problem is that other than history, there’s little in Castro’s 2013 stats to suggest a wonderful hitter is lurking. All three of his home runs came in April, along with two of his three stolen bases. His walk rate has been poor each month. His season BABIP is actually reasonable, higher than .300 in April and May. He hasn’t hit left-handed pitching, which is a bit odd, but also easy to see that normalizing in more at-bats.

In this case, it’s time to stop focusing on what Castro doesn’t do particularly well, but on the many base hits he has accrued. I don’t see any reason to project 15 home runs or 20 steals at this point, but he’s shown he’s capable of contributing in each category. A year ago, Castro hit 14 home runs, equally divided from first half to second, and he stole 25 bases. Sure, he was caught stealing more than the average player, but as with his occasional lapses in the field, chalk it up to focus. He still attempted 38 steals. This season, Castro has attempted four. Perhaps the incessant losing is catching up to him, but the team was terrible last season and Castro played better upon signing his long-term contract extension, batting .306 in the final third of the season.

Perhaps Castro doesn’t turn the corner into big-time power anytime soon, but if redrafting today, the only shortstops I’d definitively choose over him for the remainder of 2013 would be Troy Tulowitzki and Jean Segura, and I’d certainly consider Everth Cabrera for the stolen bases. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez are injured, while Castro is about as durable as they come. He’s going to be fine, and he remains a worthy starting shortstop for the Cubs and fantasy owners.

 

[HacheMan]

Closer Chart

By Fantasy Staff | ESPN.com

[h=4]Fantasy bullpen organization chart (last updated June 9)[/h]The chart below breaks down all 30 major-league teams' bullpens in terms of relievers' proximity to the closer role, not their overall fantasy value. Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
"Closer" is either that team's officially designated closer, or the pitcher most likely to get the team's next save chance. "Next in line" is the pitcher next-most likely to take over if something happens to the closer, or the one who might get any save chances on the closer's nights off. "Stealth" is a dark-horse candidate for saves, for those digging deep. These pitchers typically don't pose an imminent threat to the closer's job security, but might, given time. "Looming" is a pitcher who has his sights set on the closer role but whose circumstances might currently prevent him from doing so. Generally speaking, usual closers who are on hurt and/or on the disabled list (designated as "Inj." or "DL"), bereavement list ("BL") or restricted list ("RL"), closer-worthy pitchers currently working out of the rotation, specialists (especially lefties) or "next in line" options presently in the minors fit the description.

Team	<center> Closer </center>	<center> Next in line </center>	<center> Stealth </center>	<center> Looming </center>
	Heath Bell	David Hernandez	Brad Ziegler	J.J. Putz (DL)
	Craig Kimbrel	Cory Gearrin	Luis Avilan	Anthony Varvaro
	Jim Johnson	Darren O'Day	Tommy Hunter	Pedro Strop
	Andrew Bailey	Junichi Tazawa	Koji Uehara	Clayton Mortensen
	Kevin Gregg	James Russell	Carlos Marmol	Carlos Villanueva
	Addison Reed	Matt Thornton	Jesse Crain	Nate Jones
	Aroldis Chapman	Jonathan Broxton	J.J. Hoover	Sam LeCure
	Vinnie Pestano	Joe Smith	Cody Allen	Chris Perez (DL)
	Rex Brothers	Wilton Lopez	Matt Belisle	Rafael Betancourt (DL)
	Jose Valverde	Joaquin Benoit	Phil Coke	Bruce Rondon
	Jose Veras	Hector Ambriz	Wesley Wright	Jose Cisnero
	Greg Holland	Aaron Crow	Tim Collins	Kelvin Herrera
	Ernesto Frieri	Scott Downs	Robert Coello	Ryan Madson (DL)
	Brandon League	Kenley Jansen	Paco Rodriguez	Matt Guerrier
	Committee: Steve Cishek, Mike Dunn, Chad Qualls	A.J. Ramos
	Co-closers: Jim Henderson, Francisco Rodriguez	Mike Gonzalez	Brandon Kintzler
	Glen Perkins	Jared Burton	Josh Roenicke	Casey Fien
	Bobby Parnell	Brandon Lyon	Josh Edgin	Frank Francisco (DL)
	Mariano Rivera	David Robertson	Joba Chamberlain	Preston Claiborne
	Grant Balfour	Ryan Cook	Sean Doolittle	Pat Neshek
	Jonathan Papelbon	Mike Adams	Antonio Bastardo	Justin De Fratus
	Jason Grilli	Mark Melancon	Bryan Morris	Tony Watson
	Edward Mujica	Trevor Rosenthal	Seth Maness	Fernando Salas
	Luke Gregerson	Dale Thayer	Joe Thatcher	Huston Street (DL)
	Sergio Romo	Jeremy Affeldt	Javier Lopez	Jean Machi
	Tom Wilhelmsen	Carter Capps	Yoervis Medina	Charlie Furbush
	Fernando Rodney	Joel Peralta	Kyle Farnsworth	Jake McGee
	Joe Nathan	Tanner Scheppers	Jason Frasor	Robbie Ross
	Casey Janssen	Steve Delabar	Darren Oliver	Sergio Santos (DL)
	Rafael Soriano	Drew Storen	Tyler Clippard	Craig Stammen

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>

 

[HacheMan]

Bits: Struggling Yovani Gallardo fires gem

Eric Karabell

All the games count equally, so let’s not shortchange Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Yovani Gallardo for Monday’s excellent performance as he tossed eight innings of four-hit, shutout ball against the lowly Miami Marlins. After all, Miami's lineup did feature the return of slugger Giancarlo Stanton from the disabled list. Gallardo, however, will need more than conquering a Double-A lineup to fix his disappointing season. In fact, this appears to be a wise time to try to sell high before he faces the tougher Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves in his next few outings.

Gallardo wasn’t treated like a fantasy ace in drafts this season, but he had been for years, despite final results that were strong in the strikeout department but always lacking a bit in ERA and WHIP. This is a pitcher with a career WHIP on the wrong side of 1.30, and only one of the past four seasons has it been better than that. It’s currently at 1.38, down from 1.49 before Monday. Of course, in all four of those seasons, he has struck out 200 or more hitters, and he’s won in the teens each time with an ERA in the mid- to high-3s -- there’s nothing wrong with any of that -- but it’s always about value, and fantasy owners have expected more. This season, they’ve received considerably less.

Consider that in Gallardo’s previous three outings prior to Monday, in which the Oakland Athletics and both Pennsylvania teams had little trouble putting men on base, combining to score 14 runs off him in 15 2/3 innings, his fastball velocity showed little sign of rejuvenation. For the season, Gallardo’s strikeout rate is down quite a bit -- even against the Marlins he fanned only four hitters -- and it’s likely because he’s been throwing each of his pitches a bit slower than before. He’s also throwing fewer fastballs than ever, resulting in more line drives than usual. It’s fair to note that Gallardo’s 4.74 ERA looks worse than it should be -- his xFIP is in line with his ERA from recent seasons -- but with diminished velocity and a terrible defense behind him, will anything change?

Ultimately, Gallardo is one of the most-dropped pitchers in ESPN leagues despite being an overall top-100 pick, and none of the 25 starting pitchers picked before him is owned in fewer leagues. He should continue to drop his ERA modestly, but consider this: If he fans fewer than 160 hitters this season, which is his current pace, and his ERA and WHIP don’t help you, and with a last-place team he fails to win more than 12 games, then dealing for him in June wouldn’t be wise. For now the only positive for Gallardo is he beat Miami on Monday. There remains name value here, so consider your options.

Box score bits (NL): As for Miami’s Stanton, he singled in four at-bats from the No. 3 lineup slot. For those worried about lineup protection (don’t be), Marcell Ozuna and his .324 batting average hit cleanup. … Speaking of cleanup, the Los Angeles Dodgers moved Yasiel Puig to that role after he spent his first week leading off. Puig saw only nine pitches in four at-bats, but he had three singles. … Dodgers closer Brandon League allowed four ninth-inning runs to lose Monday, and even his best pal Don Mattingly may have little choice but to replace him with Kenley Jansen. … The San Diego Padres placed rookie second baseman Jedd Gyorko (groin) on the disabled list Monday, which stinks because he had hit eight home runs since the start of May. No worries, as Logan Forsythe came off the DL and homered in his first at-bat of the season, then later drew a walk, singled and scored. Forsythe is older than Gyorko and doesn’t bring the same power potential, but he runs and should help the next few weeks. Consider him in deep leagues as a short-term fill-in. … Evan Gattis is 6-for-8 with 4 home runs and 11 RBIs as a pinch hitter after Monday’s three-run shot. In daily, multi-catcher leagues, he’s the only one you leave active even if he doesn’t start the game.

Box score bits (AL): In addition to Stanton, several interesting young players came off the DL in the AL. The Boston Red Sox welcomed back third baseman Will Middlebrooks (back injury). He singled in a run in the first inning, then looked terrible making six outs after that in a 14-inning win. Middlebrooks is a bit overrated, but should improve his current .199 and flirt with 18-20 home runs. … The Los Angeles Angels reinstalled center fielder Peter Bourjos in the No. 9 lineup spot, since some guy named Mike Trout has been leading off. Bourjos singled twice and raised his average to .322, but his career .253 mark is more like one should expect. … Detroit Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson made his first rehab appearance for Triple-A Toledo on Monday, going hitless in four at-bats. Jackson (hamstring) could return to the Tigers on Friday and warrants immediate activation. … Toronto Blue Jays underachiever Colby Rasmus hit his 10th home run Monday. If he can keep his batting average at .255, then sure, own him. He hasn’t topped .225 since 2010. … I’ve pretty much come to terms that knuckleballer R.A. Dickey is droppable in 10- and 12-team formats, as one should expect this inconsistency on a consistent basis. Dickey allowed seven runs Monday, coming off an outing in which he came within two outs of a two-hit shutout. He might get on a great run, or he might get lit. He really doesn’t know, so how can we? … While Alex Cobb fans might be awfully dismayed at him permitting six first-inning runs to the Red Sox, his next three innings were fine. His season ERA is 2.95 with a strong K rate. See if you can buy low from a scared owner.

 

[HacheMan]

Seven buy-low hitting options

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

A-bargain-shopping we shall go …

The 2013 season, thus far, has been a disappointing one for more than a few hitters: Josh Hamilton, Miguel Montero, B.J. Upton, Giancarlo Stanton, Ike Davis … OK, for today's discussion at least, let's scratch Davis, following his recent demotion to Triple-A. There's little hope he can turn it around soon.

But knowing when it's time to trade for -- and for which of -- these struggling stars is key toward your competitive hopes. Remember, it's all about maximizing value; getting a player at the low end of his value curve gives you quite the competitive advantage. Sticking with the theme of Tuesday's 60 Feet, 6 Inches, today's "Hit Parade" identifies seven such undervalued hitters.

They are what we call "buy-low" players, players potentially in your league's bargain bin for one reason or another.

[h=3]Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves[/h]

Heyward

The No. 30 overall player selected on average -- and my No. 18-ranked player -- in the preseason, Heyward has been one of the year's biggest disappointments, due in part to the 23 Braves games he missed while recovering from an April 22 emergency appendectomy, but also in part due to his batting a ghastly .146/.290/.243 in his first 30 healthy games.

Since the beginning of June, however, Heyward has six multihit games out of 10, he's a .366/.409/.634 hitter in the month, he has an 83 percent contact rate that vastly exceeds his 76 percent career number and he has a 20 percent line-drive rate. He's also making consistently hard contact against right-handed pitchers, his well-hit average against them .221 for the season, offering a glimmer of hope that he can return to the 25-homer, 80-RBI plateaus.

Granted, that might paint a picture of an Andre Ethier-esque (the old Ethier, I mean) platoon man, but the Braves should pick their spots to sit Heyward with Evan Gattis on the roster, and that's a plus for Heyward's batting average. He shouldn't cost you close to top-50-overall-player value in trade, but there's little doubt that he has that kind of potential.

[h=3]Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies[/h]

Howard

I know what fantasy owners must be thinking: "First base is sooooooo deep and Ryan Howard is sooooooo old, why would I want him?"

It's simple: Howard has historically finished his seasons stronger than he has started them, and every day gets him further from the nasty Achilles injury that cost him most of 2012 -- one that effectively prevented him from ever returning to full form that year. To the former point, take a look at how many points his year-ending OPS has increased comparative to the morning of June 12 in his six full seasons, working backward: 46 (2011), 42, 34, 125, 37, 109 (2006). Howard also has a lifetime second-half OPS 109 points higher than in the first half (.962-.853).

Here's one more thing to consider: Twenty-five times so far this year Howard has made hard contact and hit a fly ball; his batting average on is .583 and he has a 24 percent homer rate (six homers total) when he has. From 2010-12, to compare, he struck 145 well-hit fly balls, he had a .723 batting average and a 51 percent homer rate (74 homers) on them. Just a little greater fortune on those batted balls alone and he might be more like a 13-homer than 7-homer hitter right now.

[h=3]Martin Prado, Arizona Diamondbacks[/h]

Prado

I'm at a loss to explain his poor start, because everything in his profile says that he's the victim of inexplicably bad luck, and nothing more. Consider:

• His overall BABIP is .262; the 2013 non-pitcher major league average is .297, and Prado's career number entering the year was .317.
• His BABIP when he makes hard contact is .574; the non-pitcher league average is .647 and Prado's 2009-12 number was .603.
• He has made hard contact 22.3 percent of the time he has put the ball in play this year; he did so 24.1 percent of the time in 2012.

This isn't to say that Prado is a fantasy superstar at his best, but he's also not deserving of dropping into the standard-league-replacement-level (read: around my 150th-ranked player below) tier, especially as he qualifies at three positions: second base, third base and outfield. If his owner has been benching him of late, then he or she might not recognize Prado's combination of versatility and low downside.

[h=3]Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers[/h]

Martinez

He slipped out of my top 150 several weeks ago, due to a mediocre start to his season, and the move made sense: In a 10-team ESPN standard league, only one catcher starts per team, meaning 10 active catchers at any given time. Martinez, simply put, was not deserving of top-10 catcher status.

Since then, however, he has elevated his game to the point where he might be due a massive rankings spike in the coming weeks, unsurprising considering he's now 62 games removed from microfracture knee surgery. Martinez has batted .303 with three home runs in his past 21 games, but let's go deeper: He has a .253 well-hit average (percentage of his at-bats that resulted in hard contact), which ranks 12th-best among qualifiers during that span.

Oh, and he bats behind some guys named Cabrera and Fielder…

[h=3]Chase Headley, San Diego Padres[/h]

Headley

Patience was a requirement if you were Headley's drafting owner, and if it is a virtue you lack, then brace for someone to steal him away from you on the cheap.

Consider that last season, Headley hit 23 of his 31 home runs, had 73 of his 115 RBIs and had a .978 OPS after the All-Star break, that OPS 198 points higher than before it. And that's not to say that he's a historic second-half player -- he had a .270/.351/.396 lifetime triple-slash line after the All-Star break from 2007-11 -- but rather that, if you drafted him, you were picking him almost exclusively based upon his second-half performance of 2012.

Headley's early struggles could merely be a timing issue after he began the season in the DL with a fractured left thumb, and while his 51 games played might seem like plenty to recapture it, his second-half outburst last year hints that maybe he's a player who needs even more time than that to get going. Heck, he homered Tuesday, maybe a first step toward recapturing his 2012 form. If he costs you anything less than a top-10 third baseman's price, he's a must-acquire.

[h=3]Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins[/h]

Stanton

The hate surrounding Stanton during his sluggish start to the season reached near-absurd levels. I won't hide the facts: He drove in nine runs in the Marlins' first 26 games, averaging one RBI per 9.8 plate appearances or 3.2 total bases. To compare, of the 21 other qualified No. 3 hitters in baseball at that stage of the season, only Kendrys Morales (9) had as few RBIs. I get it, the Marlins' lineup stinks.

Still, Stanton possesses as much raw power as almost anyone in the game -- he's at worst among the top five -- and homer hitters tend to fall into RBIs; there have been only five instances of a 40-homer hitter driving in fewer than 100 runs since the turn of the century. He also helped alleviate questions about his swing, having recently been activated from the DL due to a shoulder injury, hitting a home run to decide Tuesday's game.

If there's any chance Stanton's owner has Marlins doubts (Like, "He'll never see anything good to hit!"), sneak in and steal this potential top-25 overall hitter at a dramatically reduced price.

[h=3]Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles[/h]

Wieters

Like the aforementioned Howard (and to a lesser degree Headley), Wieters has a track record of stronger finishes to his seasons than starts; he has a lifetime second-half OPS 57 points higher than during the first half. That has been especially apparent the past two seasons, when he had second-half OPS of .840 (2011) and .771 (2012), those representing the best half-season numbers in his career.

While it feels like it has been forever that we have been waiting for a Wieters breakthrough, and the assumption that he'll settle in as an annual .240-hitting, 20-homer candidate is tempting, I still see more room for growth in this 27-year-old -- at least to the point he should be capable of a .260 average and 30 homers. Wieters is on pace for 20 homers, his home run/fly ball percentage down by 3 percent from his 2011-12 levels, despite what has been his highest rate of fly balls/line drives in his career (59.0 percent).

Another point in Wieters' favor: The catcher position has been terribly thin beyond the top six, to the extent that even in an ordinary year, he ranks 12th at the position on our Player Rater. There's little-to-no doubt he'll be a top-10 catcher come year's end and he might even reach the top five, but could he come cheaper?

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[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<center>#</center>	Player, Team	<center>Pos Rk</center>	<center>Prv Rk</center>	<center></center>	<center>#</center>	Player, Team	<center>Pos Rk</center>	<center>Prv Rk</center>
1	Miguel Cabrera, Det	3B1	1		76	Brian McCann, Atl	C5	79
2	Mike Trout, LAA	OF1	2		77	Starling Marte, Pit	OF33	70
3	Troy Tulowitzki, Col	SS1	8		78	Jimmy Rollins, Phi	SS8	75
4	Carlos Gonzalez, Col	OF2	4		79	Chase Utley, Phi	2B10	80
5	Robinson Cano, NYY	2B1	5		80	Kendrys Morales, Sea	1B12	83
6	Evan Longoria, TB	3B2	10		81	Josh Donaldson, Oak	3B12	111
7	Andrew McCutchen, Pit	OF3	6		82	Lorenzo Cain, KC	OF34	85
8	Joey Votto, Cin	1B1	7		83	Curtis Granderson, NYY	OF35	89
9	Prince Fielder, Det	1B2	12		84	Jose Reyes, Tor	SS9	88
10	Ryan Braun, Mil	OF4	3		85	Mike Napoli, Bos	C6	86
11	Jose Bautista, Tor	OF5	14		86	J.J. Hardy, Bal	SS10	97
12	Adam Jones, Bal	OF6	11		87	Coco Crisp, Oak	OF36	106
13	Paul Goldschmidt, Ari	1B3	15		88	Melky Cabrera, Tor	OF37	87
14	Justin Upton, Atl	OF7	9		89	Adam LaRoche, Wsh	1B13	101
15	Adrian Beltre, Tex	3B3	17		90	Ryan Howard, Phi	1B14	91
16	Dustin Pedroia, Bos	2B2	18		91	Wilin Rosario, Col	C7	84
17	Edwin Encarnacion, Tor	1B4	16		92	Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle	SS11	92
18	David Wright, NYM	3B4	13		93	Pedro Alvarez, Pit	3B13	98
19	Carlos Gomez, Mil	OF8	21		94	Adam Lind, Tor	1B15	135
20	Buster Posey, SF	C1	19		95	Salvador Perez, KC	C8	150
21	Chris Davis, Bal	OF9	20		96	Yasiel Puig, LAD	OF38	NR
22	Albert Pujols, LAA	1B5	23		97	Michael Morse, Sea	OF39	94
23	Brandon Phillips, Cin	2B3	22		98	Carl Crawford, LAD	OF40	63
24	Jay Bruce, Cin	OF10	24		99	Alejandro De Aza, CWS	OF41	100
25	Yoenis Cespedes, Oak	OF11	29		100	Matt Wieters, Bal	C9	96
26	Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos	OF12	33		101	Dan Uggla, Atl	2B11	127
27	Bryce Harper, Wsh	OF13	36		102	Brandon Belt, SF	1B16	95
28	Alex Rios, CWS	OF14	28		103	Alcides Escobar, KC	SS12	76
29	Matt Holliday, StL	OF15	38		104	Josh Willingham, Min	OF42	81
30	Adrian Gonzalez, LAD	1B6	26		105	Torii Hunter, Det	OF43	77
31	Jean Segura, Mil	SS2	40		106	David Freese, StL	3B14	133
32	Michael Bourn, Cle	OF16	31		107	Daniel Murphy, NYM	2B12	132
33	Allen Craig, StL	1B7	32		108	Victor Martinez, Det	C10	143
34	Shin-Soo Choo, Cin	OF17	27		109	Nate McLouth, Bal	OF44	115
35	Freddie Freeman, Atl	1B8	34		110	Norichika Aoki, Mil	OF45	102
36	Giancarlo Stanton, Mia	OF18	52		111	Nick Markakis, Bal	OF46	99
37	Hanley Ramirez, LAD	SS3	30		112	Nolan Arenado, Col	3B15	118
38	Dexter Fowler, Col	OF19	42		113	Jhonny Peralta, Det	SS13	119
39	Mark Trumbo, LAA	OF20	37		114	Nick Swisher, Cle	OF47	93
40	David Ortiz, Bos	DH1	48		115	B.J. Upton, Atl	OF48	104
41	Jason Kipnis, Cle	2B4	41		116	Alfonso Soriano, ChC	OF49	107
42	Chase Headley, SD	3B5	39		117	Kevin Youkilis, NYY	3B16	112
43	Everth Cabrera, SD	SS4	54		118	Jonathan Lucroy, Mil	C11	137
44	Austin Jackson, Det	OF21	49		119	Jed Lowrie, Oak	SS14	114
45	Ian Kinsler, Tex	2B5	56		120	Alexei Ramirez, CWS	SS15	145
46	Alex Gordon, KC	OF22	25		121	Paul Konerko, CWS	1B17	125
47	Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh	3B6	46		122	Mark Reynolds, Cle	1B18	105
48	Jason Heyward, Atl	OF23	67		123	Marco Scutaro, SF	2B13	NR
49	Yadier Molina, StL	C2	51		124	Justin Morneau, Min	1B19	103
50	Billy Butler, KC	1B9	45		125	Josh Reddick, Oak	OF50	138
51	Carlos Santana, Cle	C3	43		126	Brandon Moss, Oak	1B20	110
52	Ben Zobrist, TB	2B6	68		127	Jedd Gyorko, SD	2B14	113
53	Josh Hamilton, LAA	OF24	47		128	Brett Lawrie, Tor	3B17	131
54	Joe Mauer, Min	C4	59		129	Matt Joyce, TB	OF51	124
55	Manny Machado, Bal	3B7	58		130	Neil Walker, Pit	2B15	121
56	Hunter Pence, SF	OF25	53		131	Anthony Rendon, Wsh	3B18	NR
57	Ian Desmond, Wsh	SS5	62		132	Jason Castro, Hou	C12	136
58	Jose Altuve, Hou	2B7	57		133	Evan Gattis, Atl	C13	140
59	Anthony Rizzo, ChC	1B10	55		134	Erick Aybar, LAA	SS16	129
60	Carlos Beltran, StL	OF26	61		135	Kelly Johnson, TB	2B16	120
61	Matt Kemp, LAD	OF27	50		136	Jurickson Profar, Tex	2B17	134
62	Elvis Andrus, Tex	SS6	60		137	Chris Johnson, Atl	3B19	141
63	Nelson Cruz, Tex	OF28	64		138	Aaron Hill, Ari	2B18	NR
64	Domonic Brown, Phi	OF29	73		139	Ryan Doumit, Min	C14	146
65	Howie Kendrick, LAA	2B8	71		140	Chris Carter, Hou	1B21	117
66	Brett Gardner, NYY	OF30	72		141	Jayson Werth, Wsh	OF52	144
67	Starlin Castro, ChC	SS7	44		142	Ben Revere, Phi	OF53	116
68	Michael Cuddyer, Col	OF31	66		143	Angel Pagan, SF	OF54	74
69	Kyle Seager, Sea	3B8	82		144	Stephen Drew, Bos	SS17	NR
70	Martin Prado, Ari	3B9	65		145	A.J. Pierzynski, Tex	C15	NR
71	Mark Teixeira, NYY	1B11	90		146	Daniel Nava, Bos	OF55	149
72	Desmond Jennings, TB	OF32	69		147	Kyle Blanks, SD	OF56	NR
73	Aramis Ramirez, Mil	3B10	78		148	Didi Gregorius, Ari	SS18	NR
74	Matt Carpenter, StL	2B9	108		149	Gordon Beckham, CWS	2B19	NR
75	Pablo Sandoval, SF	3B11	35		150	Eric Hosmer, KC	1B22	NR

<thead>
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[HacheMan]

Realistic expectations for Gerrit Cole

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

It would be a waste of time to look for faults in Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole's big league debut. He took a four-hit, no-walk shutout into the seventh inning at PNC Park against the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday night, with a larger-than-normal crowd cheering him on, and was ultimately charged with two runs in 6 1/3 innings and won the game. Cole threw 59 of 81 pitches for strikes, his fastball and slider looked nasty and hard, and his changeup worked well, too. Giants hitters had little chance.

Cole even drove in the first two runs of the game with a single to center field. The guy certainly looks the part of a major leaguer, and while it's premature to call him the next Justin Verlander, there's little doubt a promising career is under way. Of course, I was saying this before Tuesday. One game shouldn't alter months/years of analysis.

<offer>But I also must add my standard fare for when a 22-year-old kid becomes all the fantasy rage, which is to be careful just how much you trust him. We've seen in the past week how Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig has been exalted by fantasy owners not only to quick 100 percent ownership, but perhaps the very top of the outfielder heap, which is foolish this soon. The guy is awesome, but sorry, I'm just not close to there yet. There's always a learning curve with young players; even Mike Trout did little in his first real taste of big league pitching (in 2011).

Cole, the first pick in the 2011 MLB draft, breezed through the minors with seemingly little resistance. While his strikeout rate at Triple-A Indianapolis wasn't noteworthy, and he's still prone to occasional lapses in fastball command, try telling that to a fantasy owner today! He'll be universally loved and probably at the top of the most added list by Thursday -- he jumped to 50 percent ownership even before throwing a big league pitch -- despite the fact the Giants entered Tuesday 23rd in road OPS and placed No. 3 hitter Pablo Sandoval on the disabled list earlier in the day. Cole averaged 96.2 mph with his many fastballs Tuesday, which would be the highest average among starting pitchers, and he reached 99.4 mph with one of them, which is also the fastest pitch thrown by a starter. Hey, he's exciting to watch and was certainly effective.

And all this contributes to why most prospects who make impressive debuts are natural sell-high options. What should we expect from Cole the final three-plus months? That's impossible to predict. Hitters will adjust to him, to a fastball that is hard but also straight. He'll need to adjust back, and that's if the Pirates keep him in the majors; the team seems noncommittal on how many starts he'll make and will soon have safer, veteran options returning from injury, like everyone's favorite fantasy barometer, lefty Wandy Rodriguez.

A few weeks ago, St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Michael Wacha was the next Verlander, the hot player to add in fantasy, and in his second start he turned into Joe Blanton and was mass-dropped. His third outing was also Tuesday night, and he pitched well in beating the New York Mets, but his rotation spot isn't secure, either. We can't be so reactive with young players, or veteran ones for that matter. Regardless, the same caveat on hot newcomers applies to Cole just as it did with Wacha, Jose Fernandez, Tony Cingrani and Kevin Gausman, among others: If you have room to add one of these potentially formidable strikeout pitchers, go for it, because the upside is enticing, and even if only one of every 10 rookie pitchers becomes that guy to break the mold, well, you want that guy. There's little risk because if they get lit up a few times, like Baltimore Orioles right-hander Gausman clearly has, they'll either end up back in the minors or you can just move on.

While we're talkin' Buccos, allow me to share observations from watching outfielder and leadoff hitter Starling Marte performing recently. Exactly one month ago, when Marte was hitting .336, I remarked in various places -- blogs, chats, videos, podcasts -- how there was at least 50 points of batting average regression coming quickly, due to the 24-year-old refusing to show even a hint of plate discipline. Well, Marte is now hitting .279, and on Tuesday he smacked his first home run since May 5. He does have 18 steals, including three in as many games, but he's obviously raw.

He's not in danger of heading to Indianapolis anytime soon, because even while slumping, he's superior to the likes of Jose Tabata, Alex Presley, Travis Snider and whatever else the organization can find for left field. But he remains an unfinished product, on pace for 33 walks and 149 strikeouts, and he's also a bit sloppy on the bases, having been caught stealing three times in June already. Marte hit .327 in April and .243 in May, and so far in June he's hitting .233. His overall BABIP is .346, but with his speed, we should expect it to be higher than the league average. Of course, with his aggressiveness at the plate, we should be pleased if he hits .270 with double-digit home runs and 35 steals. He's definitely worth owning in all leagues for the counting numbers, but beware that batting average risk.
</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Bits: Giants' injuries, new Dodgers closer

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Tuesday was not a good day for the San Francisco Giants. Before having to face hard-throwing Pittsburgh Pirates rookie phenom Gerrit Cole in his debut, the Giants placed third baseman Pablo Sandoval on the disabled list because of a strained left foot. The team is hopeful that Sandoval, the regular No. 3 hitter, will return in two weeks, but it's a bit early to know for sure. Then, after Cole was done toying with the Sandoval-less lineup, second baseman Marco Scutaro was hit on the left hand by a Tony Watson pitch in the seventh inning. X-rays were negative, but Scutaro could certainly end up joining Sandoval on the shelf.
<offer>The Giants don't have much infield depth in the high minors; Nick Noonan was called up from Triple-A Fresno to replace Sandoval and Joaquin Arias started at third base. Tony Abreu is another option and perhaps we see Triple-A second baseman Kensuke Tanaka or 2011 first-round pick Joe Panik, who is drawing walks and getting on base regularly for Double-A Richmond. It doesn't matter. The team isn't likely to get much production from its two infield spots for the foreseeable future.

For fantasy owners, one could easily argue that the loss of Scutaro will be more critical. Sandoval ranks a bit better on the season Player Rater, but considering how weak middle infield is in fantasy and how Scutaro is among the big league leaders in batting average, that's the statistic to focus on. After all, he's hitting .332, but that mark was .420 in May. Sure, he's not hitting for a lick of power and has yet to even attempt a stolen base, but you ignore the Player Rater when a guy is contending for a batting title and look for power elsewhere. Sandoval is hitting .289 and is on pace for 21 home runs and 97 RBIs, but he's likely to fall short of the latter two marks. Scutaro could hit .332 all year.

While the Giants don't have much to turn to that's better than replacement level, fantasy owners are in a better position. Among the third-base choices available in more than half of ESPN's standard leagues, there's Nolan Arenado, Will Middlebrooks, Anthony Rendon, Michael Young, Kevin Youkilis, Mike Aviles, Jose Iglesias and even Daniel Descalso available (I'd rank them in that order). A few of those guys have power potential, but it comes with batting-average risk. At middle infield, should you need a replacement, it's a wise time to see if Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks has turned his season around, for we know of his power/speed upside. Erick Aybar deserves more attention, as well. I'd take a chance on Nick Franklin too, then Gordon Beckham, Derek Dietrich, Logan Forsythe, Yunel Escobar, Stephen Drew, DJ LeMahieu and Mark Ellis, in that order, and there's always the chance the Rockies recall Josh Rutledge soon.

Box score bits (NL): Los Angeles Dodgers manager Don Mattingly made news Tuesday by finally proclaiming Kenley Jansen his closer over Brandon League. Jansen, already owned in 84.5 percent of ESPN standard leagues, then saved that night's brawl-filled game. It's time to drop League. The way he has pitched, it's hard to see the roles changing again. Jansen, meanwhile, has top-5 closer upside. … As for fallout from the Dodgers-Arizona Diamondbacks melee, expect struggling right-hander Ian Kennedy (still 46 percent owned) to face suspension and perhaps Zack Greinke and Yasiel Puig, as well, for their roles in the foolishness. … Colorado Rockies first baseman/outfielder Tyler Colvin smashed a pair of home runs Tuesday, and now has six RBIs in three games since promotion, but before you get all excited, note that he probably won't be starting for long. Colvin has been producing at Triple-A Colorado Springs, but if Michael Cuddyer can play, Colvin probably won't. … Colvin hit one of the home runs off beleaguered Washington Nationals right-hander Dan Haren, the big league leader in home runs allowed, who got lit up by the New York Mets in his last outing. Start him at Coors Field? No way! … Day 1 of the post-Ike Davis era for the Mets featured Daniel Murphy moving to first base, and Jordany Valdespin handling second base and leading off. Valdespin singled twice and has stolen base upside. Davis, meanwhile, was hitless with two walks and two strikeouts for Triple-A Las Vegas. … Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton launched his first home run since coming off the DL, a go-ahead blast in the eighth inning. You're running out of time to get him at a discount. … Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun sat out again because of a sore right thumb. He has missed only a few days so far, but a DL stint wouldn't be shocking. … Cincinnati Reds lefty Tony Cingrani came back from the minors, perhaps for just one outing and beat the Chicago Cubs with seven strong innings of two-run ball. He even singled twice. Make sure Cingrani is staying in Cincy before adding him.

Box score bits (AL): Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis didn't extend his home run lead Tuesday, but he did walk twice. That makes 31 walks on the season; last year, he walked 37 times in 139 games. Wow. … Texas Rangers lefty Derek Holland fell victim to the BABIP monster Tuesday, allowing nine hits (eight singles) and four runs in 4 1/3 messy innings. Holland's season numbers are fine, so don't panic here. … Need steals? Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Rajai Davis stole two bases against Chicago White Sox relievers Tuesday. Davis has been off the DL one week and has swiped three bases in his two starts. … It's nice to see right-hander Chien-Ming Wang back in the bigs. For hitters, that is. Wang tossed 7 1/3 hittable, run-filled innings Tuesday. At this point, there's no point relying on him or any of his Blue Jays rotation mates. … Kelly Shoppach caught Aaron Harang's near-perfect outing against the Houston Astros on Tuesday, but look for prospect Mike Zunino to get chances to catch soon. Zunino, who was hardly thriving at Triple-A Tacoma but got promoted regardless, is not worthy of ownership in 10- or 12-team leagues yet, though he does have power potential. As for Harang, who has posted shutouts (and many strikeouts) in two of his past four outings, it remains tough to make a case to use him against a decent offense. I still wouldn't add him for starts next week against the Angels and Athletics.</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Bits: A's rotation continues to sparkle

Eric Karabell

The first Oakland Athletics pitcher chosen in ESPN average live drafts prior to this season was not one of the current members of the stellar rotation or closer Grant Balfour. It was brittle left-hander Brett Anderson, who is trying to recover from his latest malady, a stress fracture in his right foot. Meanwhile, one A's hurler after another continues to shine, contributing to the team's first-place status in the AL West.

On Wednesday night, right-hander Dan Straily held the New York Yankees to three singles and two runs over 6 2/3 innings, earning his fourth win and lowering his WHIP to an impressive 1.07. A night earlier, longtime fantasy punching bag Bartolo Colon earned his fifth consecutive win, permitting nary a run for the third time in four outings to stymie the Yankees. On Thursday, Jarrod Parker, one of the top rookies from 2012, will aim to lower his season ERA for the ninth consecutive start. Sure, it was elevated to begin with, but that's still quite a feat. And there's also right-hander A.J. Griffin and lefty Tommy Milone thriving. None of these five pitchers is owned in more than 85 percent of ESPN leagues, but over the past month-plus, each has been terrific.

Straily's performance was the latest in a run that should solidify his rotation spot. He wasn't considered a noteworthy prospect when the 2012 season began, but then his already-terrific strikeout rate went to the next level, and he forced his way from Double-A Midland (108 K's in 85 1/3 innings) to Triple-A Sacramento (82 K's in 66 2/3 innings) to the big leagues, where he kept missing bats. On Wednesday, Straily didn't overpower the Yankees with strikeouts, but he threw many strikes (61 of 86 pitches). He has been a different pitcher this season, one who doesn't throw quite as hard but can still overpower hitters. If you're wondering why his ERA is so high (4.45), note that his FIP (3.15) is quite a bit lower, and that is a lot more telling.

As a rookie, Straily fell victim to home run and walk rates, but he certainly has cut into those this season, and he has been a bit unlucky with his rate of runners left on base. The only pitcher qualified for the ERA title to have a lower LOB percentage than Straily is beleaguered Chicago Cubs right-hander Edwin Jackson. At this point, fantasy owners should prefer Straily to Anderson, though the ownership percentages show the opposite. I've had enough of Anderson, who wasn't pitching so well even when healthy, and I see little reason to wait for him in 10- and 12-team formats.

Without question, Colon has been Oakland's top pitcher this season, and one of the best in baseball of late. In fact, he enters Thursday the No. 3 pitcher on the ESPN Player Rater over the past 30 days, and he also has teammates in the top 60 over that span (Balfour is 7th, Parker is 14th, Straily 24th, Milone 60th). Colon has permitted one run over his past four outings, covering 29 innings. While some might question his methods -- Colon was suspended 50 games last year for testing positive for a banned stimulant -- he has been terrific in 2013, boasting one of the lowest walk rates in baseball, and it all looks legit. Frankly, everything we're seeing from the Oakland staff looks legit.

Box score bits (AL): Seattle Mariners catcher Mike Zunino made his big league debut Wednesday and had a single in four at-bats. Mariners catchers rank among the worst in baseball (28th in OPS), and while Zunino wasn't thriving at Triple-A Tacoma, he has a good opportunity to win the starting job. Just don't consider him 10- or 12-team worthy just yet. … Same with right-hander Jeremy Bonderman, who tossed eight innings of three-hit, shutout ball before Tom Wilhelmsen blew his lead. The eight strikeouts in three outings is a big problem. … Better to go with the Houston Astros starter that earned a tough no-decision Wednesday. Right-hander Jordan Lyles fanned 10 Mariners in seven shutout innings. He's 2-0 with a 1.67 ERA in his past six starts. … Speaking of the M's, demoted second baseman Dustin Ackley played left field for Tacoma on Wednesday, and he's hitting .417 with twice as many walks as strikeouts in 14 games. Those in AL-only formats have been burned by him before, but eventually he'll hit. … Meanwhile, I'd add setup man Carter Capps today, just in case struggling Mariners closer Tom Wilhelmsen is hurt. He has been awful in June. … Finally some non-Mariners talk. I caught some of Ubaldo Jimenez's start Wednesday and yes, he handled a good offense in Texas. But he has walked three or more hitters in four of five outings. I'm still not buying. … Albert Pujols literally limped around the bases after hitting his 11th home run Wednesday. He'll keep playing, but I say he ends up around 25 home runs and a .260 batting average. Good luck selling high.

Box score bits (NL): Remember when the Cincinnati Reds had to at least be thinking of letting Tony Cingrani remain in the rotation at the expense of Mike Leake? Well, Leake won again Wednesday, allowing one run on three hits over eight innings at Wrigley Field. His ERA is down to 2.76, 18th in baseball. … Cubs lefty Travis Wood, incidentally, allowed two runs to lose the game, but his 2.65 ERA ranks 14th. Somehow Wood still isn't close to 100 percent owned in ESPN leagues. … Colorado Rockies outfielder Eric Young Jr. has three stolen bases in the past week. If he continues this trend, it likely won't be with the Rockies; he was designated for assignment Wednesday and could be traded soon. The guy can certainly run, so see where he lands. This is, however, good news if you're relying on Tyler Colvin, who should keep a job but likely won't start when Michael Cuddyer is healthy.

 

[HacheMan]

Tulowitzki suffers another significant injury

By Stephania Bell | ESPN.com

Just when it seemed enough time had passed to allow those fantasy owners nervously anticipating a Troy Tulowitzki injury to finally exhale, the Rockies' star shortstop is indeed hurt again. He suffered a broken rib making a diving defensive play Thursday night, and is expected to be out for more than a month.

It's actually Tulo who is the one finding it difficult to breathe. According to the Denver Post, Tulowizki was having difficulty breathing after suffering the injury to his right side in the eighth inning. He was taken to a local hospital, where an MRI revealed a rib fracture. "I'm just really upset. I worked so hard [to get back]," Tulowitzki said in a text message to the Denver Post. "I'm in a lot of pain right now; I'm not sure how long [I'll be out]."

MLB.com is reporting Tulowitzki is expected to miss four to six weeks. There are several factors that make this injury particularly difficult not only for a baseball player, but for a shortstop in particular. The first issue is the bone healing; there must be sufficient evidence that the bone is repairing itself before allowing an athlete to return to high-level baseball activities. That process typically requires three to four weeks, although it can take longer depending on the fracture location, whether it is displaced or not and the individual's general capacity for healing. During the early stages of recovery, unlike many other injuries in which the athlete can at least maintain cardiovascular training to some degree, rib injuries must be kept quiet. All movements are painful -- reaching, twisting, leaning and sometimes even just quiet breathing (no movement at all) -- which makes it impossible to tolerate the increased breathing demands of cardio training. Naturally, there is some deconditioning that occurs as a result.

Even after the rib heals to the point where the athlete can move more freely and resume cardio workouts, there are still the challenges of the sport itself. In baseball, the demands on the ribs are high both on offense and defense, for a shortstop in particular. The torsion through the rib cage that accompanies swinging a bat (even checking a swing) or cross-body defensive throws is exceptionally high. There is also the frequent leaping or diving necessary to make a catch, which stresses the rib cage either by stretching or by contact. A baseball player also needs to potentially absorb collision when running the bases or sliding. All of these factors have to be taken into consideration when evaluating the timeline for Tulowitzki's return, along with restoring his conditioning to one of game readiness. The latter part of the four-to-six-week timetable seems reasonable, but it could certainly take longer. As always, the time frame must be considered fluid.

Perhaps you remember the challenges Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury faced when trying to return following rib fractures in 2010. His original injury was in April, and although he attempted to return twice, he played in only 18 games that season before ultimately being shut down. Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke had a rib fracture entering spring training while with the Royals in 2011 and did not return to the mound until the first week of May. Granted, the positional demands are different -- he was in the AL, so he didn't have to hit -- but the torsion involved in pitching is similarly stressful.

Meanwhile, it seems unfair that Tulowitzki is out again with a lengthy injury. He has been beset by several injuries in recent years, including season-ending surgery in 2012 to repair core muscles and address scar tissue around a nerve in his left groin area. He worked diligently in his rehab following surgery to ensure he would be in good shape to start the 2013 season, and he was. After 58 games, he has a .347 batting average with 16 home runs. More important, he was playing consistently, even though it meant taking planned days off at times in the interest of long-term health management of his left leg. Unfortunately, Tulowitzki is again being forced to the sideline for at least a month, and the first threshold he must cross is simply being able to breathe without pain.

 

[HacheMan]

Cole, Zunino profiles; top prospects

By Jim Callis | Baseball America

As you may have noticed, two elite prospects were promoted in the past week. The Pittsburgh Pirates called up right-handed starting pitcher Gerrit Cole, whose pure stuff rivals that of anyone in the game, and the Seattle Mariners turned to Mike Zunino, baseball's top catching prospect.

Cole was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft and recipient of a draft-record $8 million bonus. He has an impressive arsenal that includes an upper-90s four-seam fastball, a mid-90s two-seamer, a wipeout slider and a tantalizing changeup. He began his big league career Tuesday night by fanning Angel Pagan on three consecutive 96 mph heaters, and he averaged 96 mph on his fastball for his 6 1/3 innings.

<offer>That said, though you can't read too much into one start, Cole didn't do anything Tuesday to shed the existing belief that he gets hit harder than he should, given his stuff. He gave up seven hits, and although he didn't walk a batter, he struck out only two. Command is the key for Cole and he threw strikes in his major league debut, but he could still do a better job of locating his pitches.</offer>

Cole battled control and command issues early in the season at Triple-A, where he averaged just 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings despite his impressive array of pitches. He's filling in for the injured Wandy Rodriguez (forearm strain) on a Pirates club that would make the playoffs if the season ended today. It's possible that Cole will show enough to keep his spot in the rotation, and if he does, I'd project him to post a rookie performance along these lines: 7-5 record, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 95 K's in 120 innings (20 starts).

Pittsburgh summoned Cole because it needed reinforcements for a playoff drive, but Seattle's promotion Zunino was more of a surprise. The No. 3 overall pick in the 2012 draft barely a year ago, he had four homers and 15 RBIs in his first five games at Triple-A in April, but he slumped after that. He was batting .238/.303/.503 with 11 homers and 59 strikeouts in 185 at-bats when he got the call.

Zunino, who went 1-for-4 Wednesday against the Astros, is an outstanding prospect with above-average power to go with a solid bat and defensive skills. He has the tools of a future all-star, but he might not help your fantasy team much in the present. He'll split time with Kelly Shoppach and may head back to the minors once backup Jesus Sucre recovers from a bone bruise.

Zunino hadn't proved he was ready to hit Triple-A pitching, let alone big leaguers, on a consistent basis. If he did share catching duties with Shoppach the rest of the year, I could see Zunino getting 175 at-bats and hitting below .250 with five to seven homers and 20-25 RBIs. I like his fantasy potential for the long term, but not so much for 2013, which is why he never cracked our fantasy Top 10 prospects list this year.

Speaking of which, here's the latest top 10:


[h=3]1. Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays (Last week's rank: 2)[/h]Season totals: .281/.355/.508, 13 HR, 55 RBIs, 7 SB in 61 games at Triple-A Durham.
Update: Myers' bat isn't cooling off; he hit three more homers last week and has bashed nine of his 13 long balls this season in the past three weeks. He has also taken over the International League lead in RBIs and is doing a better job of making contact.
Prognosis: The Rays have probably kept Myers in the minors long enough to avoid giving him an extra year of arbitration eligibility, and they have a slumping DH in Luke Scott (.504 OPS over the past month). There's no good reason not to promote Myers, who still has enough time left in the season to hit 10-15 homers for the Rays.


[h=3]2. Zack Wheeler, SP, New York Mets (Last week's rank: 4)[/h]Season totals: 4-2, 3.93 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 73 K's in 68 2/3 IP (13 starts) at Triple-A Las Vegas.
Update: In what should be his final minor league start, Wheeler hit 96 mph while allowing just one hit and striking out seven in 5 2/3 innings against Tacoma. The Mets are expected to give him his first big league start Tuesday.
Prognosis: Wheeler had some ups and downs at Las Vegas, dealing with minor oblique, blister and shoulder issues, as well as one of the toughest pitching environments in the minors. In fact, he might post better numbers in New York than he did in Triple-A.


[h=3]3. Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians (Last week's rank: 5)[/h]Season totals: 2-2, 4.02 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 55 K's in 53.2 IP (nine starts) at Triple-A Columbus.
Update: Bauer had his best start of the season Saturday, pitching seven shutout innings against Gwinnett. He allowed five hits and just one walk, and his strike percentage (66 of 105, 63 percent) represented a season best.
Prognosis: The Indians are slumping out of contention and recently put Justin Masterson on the disabled list with a sprained middle finger. Carlos Carrasco was terrible in place of Masterson and Scott Kazmir continues to get lit up, so Bauer could get another big league opportunity soon. He has already made three spot starts for Cleveland this season.


[h=3]4. Josh Rutledge, 2B/SS, Colorado Rockies (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]Season totals: .348/.438/.565, 2 HR, 10 RBIs, 1 SB in 17 games at Triple-A Colorado Springs.
Update: After joining the Rockies last July, Rutledge hit .345/.360/.634 in his first two months in the majors, but just .221/.308/.325 in his next three. That prompted a late-May demotion to Triple-A, where Rutledge has gotten back on track.
Prognosis: After Troy Tulowitzki broke his rib Thursday, the Rockies scratched Rutledge from the Colorado Springs lineup. He's expected to take over as Colorado's shortstop and should settle somewhere in between his divergent stat lines in the big leagues. Splitting the difference would mean .285/.334/.480.


[h=3]5. Nick Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers (Last week's rank: 6)[/h]Season totals: .302/.377/.498, 10 HR, 38 RBI, 1 SB in 68 games at Triple-A Toledo.
Update: Castellanos continues to rake, recording three straight multi-hit games to raise his June line to .447/.518/.766. One of the best pure hitters in the minors, he's making impressive strides with his power and plate discipline.
Prognosis: The Tigers should easily win the American League Central, but they could upgrade their lineup by replacing Andy Dirks with Castellanos. At the very least, he could platoon with Dirks and help spell aging veterans Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez. Castellanos has more fantasy upside than Avisail Garcia.


[h=3]6. Tyler Skaggs, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]Season totals: 4-5 record, 5.23 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 54 K's in 51 2/3 IP (nine starts) at Triple-A Reno.
Update: When Brandon McCarthy went on the disabled list because of shoulder inflammation, the Diamondbacks turned to Skaggs. He made three starts for Arizona and gave up five runs in five innings against the Giants on Sunday before being demoted the next day.
Prognosis: Part of the reason the Diamondbacks sent Skaggs down was that they won't need a fifth starter again until Tuesday. One of the game's top lefty pitching prospects, Skaggs has shown what he's capable of with six shutout innings against the Rangers on May 27 and his 17-to-6 K/BB ratio in the majors. Most of the Diamondbacks' rotation hasn't performed well, and Skaggs should get another opportunity soon.


[h=3]7. Kyle Gibson, SP, Minnesota Twins (Last week's rank: 7)[/h]Season totals: 6-5 record, 3.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 69 K's in 79 2/3 IP (13 starts) at Triple-A Rochester.
Update: The Twins want to see more consistency out of Gibson, and he's delivering it. He allowed one run in seven innings Sunday against Toledo, his fifth quality start in his past seven outings, though he did issue a season-high five walks.
Prognosis: Minnesota's starters have pitched better recently, but none of them are averaging more than 5.0 strikeouts per nine innings. Now that the super-two arbitration cutoff has likely passed, it shouldn't be long before Gibson gets his first big league start.


[h=3]8. Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: 9)[/h]Season totals: .319/.353/.475, 4 HR, 22 RBIs, 5 SB in 36 games at Triple-A Memphis.
Update: Taveras missed four weeks because of a high ankle sprain before returning last Saturday. The minors' best hitting prospect didn't seem affected by the layoff, going 6-for-18 (.333) with two doubles in five games following his return.
Prognosis: Jon Jay has struggled horribly during the past month (.207/.291/.228), but the Cardinals have the best record in baseball (43-23) and don't seem inclined to replace their center fielder. Taveras could hit .285 with double-digit homers in the second half of the big league season, but he may not get that opportunity.


[h=3]9. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: 8)[/h]Season totals: .255/.314/.341, 3 HR, 21 RBIs, 40 SB in 61 games at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: Hamilton is doing what he does best: steal bases. He has eight steals in his past four games to bring his season total to 40. He might not reach 100 swipes for a third straight season, but his 85 percent success rate is up from 81 percent a year ago, when he set a professional record with 155 steals.
Prognosis: Hamilton still has adjustments to make against Triple-A pitching, but his ability to steal at least 10 bases per month in the majors can't be ignored. The Reds could also upgrade their defense by putting him in center field and moving Shin-Soo Choo to left, so Hamilton could get the call if he improves at the plate.


[h=3]10. Archie Bradley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week's rank: 10)[/h]Season totals: 5-1 record, 1.34 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 47 K's in 47 IP (eight starts) at Double-A Mobile; 2-0 record, 1.26 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 43 K's in 28 2/3 IP (five starts) at high Class A Visalia.
Update: Bradley hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his 13 starts this year, and he can now stake a claim to being baseball's top pitching prospect. His command has regressed in his past four outings, with 16 walks in 27 innings, but he continues to overmatch Double-A hitters with ace-quality stuff.
Prognosis: As mentioned, the Diamondbacks are having rotation issues. They also continue to lead the National League West, and if Bradley can just throw a few more strikes, he could help their playoff push.


Dropped out (with last week's rank): Jesse Biddle, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (10).Called up (with last week's rank): Tony Cingrani, SP, Cincinnati Reds (1); Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates (3).

 

[HacheMan]

What can we expect from Wil Myers?

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

In 24 hours' time, we've ridden the Wil Myers rollercoaster; from the excitement and anticipation of his Tuesday major league debut to disappointment in his 1-for-7, 0-extra base hit, 2-strikeout performance in said doubleheader.

Myers' debut might not have produced the results that New York Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler's did, but interest in his long-term prospects remains high. He is the second-most added player, behind Wheeler, in ESPN leagues the past week. He is now owned in a whopping 95.3 percent of leagues.

Fantasy owners evidently aren't -- and shouldn't be -- reading too much into his Tuesday numbers. Baseball history shows us that debut dandies, at least on the hitting side, are notoriously hit-or-miss. Consider:

• J.P. Arencibia, Bert Campaneris, Bob Nieman, Mark Quinn and Charlie Reilly are the only five players to manage as many as two home runs in a debut.
• Besides those five, Ed Freed, Kazuo Matsui, Willie McCovey and Craig Wilson are the only players to manage eight total bases in their debuts.
• Campaneris, Lenny Dykstra, Kevin McReynolds, Trent Oeltjen, Jose Offerman and Ben Steiner, meanwhile, are the only six players to manage a "combo meal" -- as defined on the Fantasy Focus podcast as a home run and stolen base in the same game -- in their debuts.

That's quite a potpourri of names, as while McCovey is in the Hall of Fame, none of the others got even close. Keep that in mind if you're making decisions about future prospects in their big-league debuts; a dart board gives you comparable odds in predicting such instant success.

But let's get back to the topic of Myers' long-term prospects. Examining baseball history once more -- or at least games since 1916, the first season for which game-by-game data is available on Baseball-Reference.com -- we find that even the greatest performances during the first 25 games of a career result in a hodgepodge of players. Take a look:

• Zeke Bonura, Chris Davis, Kevin Maas and George Scott each hit 10 home runs, the most by any player in his first 25 games.
• Mandy Brooks (34) and Jim Greengrass (30) are the only players to manage at least 30 RBIs.
• Brooks (85), Joe DiMaggio (79) and Scott (73) are the only players with at least 70 total bases.

Again, we've got a Hall of Famer (DiMaggio), and in this case a very good player (Scott), and then there's Davis, who this season is on a similar run to the one he enjoyed in his first 25 career games. Still, it appears that a dart board might give you similar odds, though in this case let's say with a little practice required.


All of this, though, ignores one critical fact: Myers was widely regarded one of the top prospects in baseball, forecasted a future MVP candidate at the time of his December trade to the Tampa Bay Rays in the James Shields deal. Myers was Keith Law's No. 4 prospect this preseason, No. 7 during his May rankings update.

Knowing that a player is destined for greatness, might the odds of forecasting instant success increase? After all, we might all feel as if that's true, having watched Mike Trout, Law's top prospect entering both 2011 and 2012, enjoy arguably the greatest season by any rookie in the history of baseball in 2012.

To find out the answer, I examined the careers to date of all of Law's top 25-ranked hitters since 2008, his first published list on ESPN. As these would presumably be the most sought-after prospects in fantasy leagues, these seemed like a fair sample size from which to pull data. In all, 93 different players earned said rankings during that six-year span; remember that some players made multiple appearances (Trout the most notable example).

Six prospects, among those in the 2008-10 lists, haven't even debuted yet in the majors:
Tim Beckham (No. 6 hitter, 11 overall, in 2009)
Travis d'Arnaud (No. 4 hitter, 6 overall, in 2012)
Jaff Decker (No. 15 hitter, 27 overall, in 2010): He was recalled by the San Diego Padres on June 12, but was returned to Triple-A two days later.
Angel Villalona (No. 13 hitter, 20 overall, in 2008)
Ryan Westmoreland (No. 19 hitter, 32 overall, in 2010)

Seventeen prospects have reached the major leagues, but appear destined for disappointing big-league careers:
Lars Anderson (No. 4 hitter, 7 overall, in 2009)
Daric Barton (No. 25 hitter, 38 overall, in 2008)
Gordon Beckham (No. 24 hitter, 36 overall, in 2009)
Lonnie Chisenhall (No. 14 hitter, 26 overall, in 2010)
Dee Gordon (No. 23 hitter, 39 overall, in 2010)
Matt LaPorta (No. 18 hitter, 27 overall, in 2009)
Andy LaRoche (No. 16 hitter, 25 overall, in 2008)
Fernando Martinez (No. 5 hitter, 10 overall, in 2008)
Jordan Schafer (No. 17 hitter, 27 overall, in 2008)
Justin Smoak (No. 7 hitter, 9 overall, in 2010)
Travis Snider (No. 3 hitter, 5 overall, in 2009)
Jose Tabata (No. 14 hitter, 21 overall, in 2008)
Michael Taylor (No. 13 hitter, 24 overall, in 2010)
Carlos Triunfel (No. 11 hitter, 18 overall, in 2008)
Josh Vitters (No. 9 hitter, 14 overall, in 2009)
Brett Wallace (No. 11 hitter, 20 overall, in 2010)
Brandon Wood (No. 22 hitter, 34 overall, in 2008)

The jury is still out on another 15 prospects:
Dustin Ackley (No. 6 hitter, 7 overall, in 2011)
Jackie Bradley Jr. (No. 25 hitter, 40 overall, in 2013)
Aaron Hicks (No. 8 hitter, 10 overall, in 2011)
Eric Hosmer (No. 5 hitter, 5 overall, in 2011)
Jose Iglesias (No. 22 hitter, 45 overall, in 2011)
Cameron Maybin (No. 8 hitter, 13 overall, in 2008)
Devin Mesoraco (No. 6 hitter, 8 overall, in 2012)
Jesus Montero (No. 4 hitter, 4 overall, in 2011)
Logan Morrison (No. 12 hitter, 21 overall, n 2010)
Mike Moustakas (No. 11 hitter, 23 overall, in 2011)
Derek Norris (No. 16 hitter, 33 overall, in 2011)
Jurickson Profar (No. 1 hitter, 1 overall, in 2013)
Wilson Ramos (No. 25 hitter, 42 overall, in 2010)
Anthony Rendon (No. 11 hitter, 17 overall, in 2013)
Mike Zunino (No. 10 hitter, 15 overall, in 2013)

It's also far too soon to pass judgment on 17 members of the 2013 prospect class, nine from 2012 and two from 2011.

That leaves 27 players who "made it" -- that being defined as having fantasy significance in any season since -- which shows how difficult the conversion from prospect status to big-league stardom. (As an aside, that exemplifies how special a player Mike Trout is.) Eighteen of them ranked among the 43 players on Law's lists from 2008-10; that represents 42 percent who became successful big leaguers.

Here's how the overall group performed during each of their first calendar years in the big leagues -- meaning Trout's numbers from July 8, 2011, the date of his debut, through July 7, 2012, as one example -- comparative to the major league average rookie hitter since the beginning of the 2008 season:

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2008-13 statistics	<center>AVG</center>	<center>OBP</center>	<center>SLG</center>	<center>ISO</center>	<center>BB%</center>	<center>K%</center>	<center>AB/HR</center>
Average MLB rookie	.252	.314	.386	.135	7.7%	20.4%	42.6
Law's top 25 prospects	.264	.332	.421	.157	8.6%	19.9%	33.9

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Clearly this bunch possesses greater odds of instant success than the average rookie, which is why adding the Myers, Profars and Rendons of the baseball world makes sense in all fantasy leagues. You're taking out lottery tickets, but based upon scouts' forecasts, ones with greater odds than those of your typical freshman.

However, these "successes" were also a mishmash of early-career triumphs and failures. Trout himself illustrates this: He managed .220/.281/.390 triple-slash rates in 40 games of his first big-league stint in 2011, then .354/.412/.565 rates in his first 40 games following his next promotion in 2012. Let's break down these prospects' career performances into 25-game chunks, to determine whether there's any type of "learning curve" for this group as a whole:

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Career G	<center>AVG</center>	<center>OBP</center>	<center>SLG</center>	<center>ISO</center>	<center>BB%</center>	<center>K%</center>	<center>AB/HR</center>
1-25	.247	.315	.397	.149	8.3%	21.5%	36.3
26-50	.261	.333	.413	.152	9.2%	19.9%	36.6
51-75	.267	.334	.425	.158	8.7%	19.8%	33.1
76-100	.263	.328	.416	.153	8.3%	21.2%	33.9
101-125	.268	.336	.435	.167	8.5%	19.9%	29.7
126-150	.243	.318	.393	.150	9.1%	20.5%	29.9
151-175	.253	.325	.416	.163	9.2%	20.6%	32.2
176-200	.249	.321	.407	.157	9.2%	20.3%	34.0
200+	.262	.335	.428	.166	9.3%	19.7%	30.5

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Judging by these numbers, hitting prospects endure a vastly different growth curve than pitching prospects: They tend to struggle early, and if they survive said initial struggles, they hit better from their 26th games forward, peaking during their 101st through 150th games (those sometimes coming during their second big-league seasons). In particular, their plate-discipline numbers -- those strikeout and walk rates -- are at their worst in their first 25 career contests.

This is something to keep in mind with Myers, who despite a .300 career minor league batting average looks much more like a high-strikeout, low-average, big-power type. He whiffed in 23.2 percent of his plate appearances at the Triple-A level, which helps explain why, in the preseason, we projected him to hit only .262.

Myers might scuffle initially, as Trout did, but he has something in his favor that Trout didn't: The patience of his big-league team, which lacks the outfield depth Trout's Los Angeles Angels did then, meaning that he's much more likely to stick around for the long haul. Myers' fantasy owners must be patient; he's the kind of player who could hit 15 homers the rest of the way, but it's not unthinkable that all 15 might come in the season's final three months, once he's fully adjusted.

This is a lesson fantasy owners should also bear in mind with other top-ranked prospects from Law's list, who might debut in 2013:

Oscar Taveras, St. Louis Cardinals (No. 3 hitter)
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox (No. 4)
Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins (No. 5)
Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds (No. 16)
Travis d'Arnaud, New York Mets (No. 4 hitter in 2012)
Nick Castellanos, Detroit Tigers (No. 17 hitter in 2012)
Jonathan Singleton, Houston Astros (No. 13 hitter in 2011)

The upshot is that any top prospect is worth the pickup, a "cycling of lottery tickets," if you will, hoping that one will finally stick.

But consider how patient both you and his big-league team can be with each prospect. Can you afford to sit through potentially a month's adjustment time? Some might warrant it; and those -- Myers and Taveras fall into this group, as do Yelich and Castellanos to lesser degrees -- are the ones you want.

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[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<center>#</center>	Player, Team	<center>Pos Rk</center>	<center>Prv Rk</center>	<center></center>	<center>#</center>	Player, Team	<center>Pos Rk</center>	<center>Prv Rk</center>
1	Miguel Cabrera, Det	3B1	1		76	Desmond Jennings, TB	OF33	72
2	Mike Trout, LAA	OF1	2		77	Adam Lind, Tor	1B12	94
3	Carlos Gonzalez, Col	OF2	4		78	Coco Crisp, Oak	OF34	87
4	Andrew McCutchen, Pit	OF3	7		79	Wilin Rosario, Col	C5	91
5	Joey Votto, Cin	1B1	8		80	Salvador Perez, KC	C6	95
6	Robinson Cano, NYY	2B1	5		81	Josh Donaldson, Oak	3B10	81
7	Evan Longoria, TB	3B2	6		82	Matt Carpenter, StL	2B10	74
8	Adam Jones, Bal	OF4	12		83	J.J. Hardy, Bal	SS10	86
9	Prince Fielder, Det	1B2	9		84	Lorenzo Cain, KC	OF35	82
10	Paul Goldschmidt, Ari	1B3	13		85	Kyle Seager, Sea	3B11	69
11	Albert Pujols, LAA	1B4	22		86	Ryan Howard, Phi	1B13	90
12	Jose Bautista, Tor	OF5	11		87	Pedro Alvarez, Pit	3B12	93
13	David Wright, NYM	3B3	18		88	Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle	SS11	92
14	Carlos Gomez, Mil	OF6	19		89	Brian McCann, Atl	C7	76
15	Edwin Encarnacion, Tor	1B5	17		90	Mike Napoli, Bos	C8	85
16	Chris Davis, Bal	1B6	21		91	Aramis Ramirez, Mil	3B13	73
17	Adrian Beltre, Tex	3B4	15		92	David Freese, StL	3B14	106
18	Buster Posey, SF	C1	20		93	Yasiel Puig, LAD	OF36	96
19	Dustin Pedroia, Bos	2B2	16		94	B.J. Upton, Atl	OF37	115
20	Jay Bruce, Cin	OF7	24		95	Josh Reddick, Oak	OF38	125
21	Ian Kinsler, Tex	2B3	45		96	Daniel Murphy, NYM	2B11	107
22	Giancarlo Stanton, Mia	OF8	36		97	Alejandro De Aza, CWS	OF39	99
23	Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos	OF9	26		98	Ben Revere, Phi	OF40	142
24	Justin Upton, Atl	OF10	14		99	Kendrys Morales, Sea	1B14	80
25	Freddie Freeman, Atl	1B7	35		100	Brandon Belt, SF	1B15	102
26	Jean Segura, Mil	SS1	31		101	Melky Cabrera, Tor	OF41	88
27	Allen Craig, StL	1B8	33		102	Jason Castro, Hou	C9	132
28	Austin Jackson, Det	OF11	44		103	Adam LaRoche, Wsh	1B16	89
29	Bryce Harper, Wsh	OF12	27		104	Dan Uggla, Atl	2B12	101
30	Brandon Phillips, Cin	2B4	23		105	Michael Morse, Sea	OF42	97
31	Alex Rios, CWS	OF13	28		106	Carl Crawford, LAD	OF43	98
32	Yoenis Cespedes, Oak	OF14	25		107	Paul Konerko, CWS	1B17	121
33	Shin-Soo Choo, Cin	OF15	34		108	Wil Myers, TB	OF44	NR
34	Ryan Braun, Mil	OF16	10		109	Jhonny Peralta, Det	SS12	113
35	Michael Bourn, Cle	OF17	32		110	Torii Hunter, Det	OF45	105
36	Jason Kipnis, Cle	2B5	41		111	Jonathan Lucroy, Mil	C10	118
37	Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh	3B5	47		112	Matt Wieters, Bal	C11	100
38	Matt Holliday, StL	OF18	29		113	Nate McLouth, Bal	OF46	109
39	Yadier Molina, StL	C2	49		114	Brandon Moss, Oak	1B18	126
40	Mark Trumbo, LAA	OF19	39		115	Erick Aybar, LAA	SS13	134
41	David Ortiz, Bos	DH1	40		116	Victor Martinez, Det	C12	108
42	Dexter Fowler, Col	OF20	38		117	Josh Willingham, Min	OF47	104
43	Hunter Pence, SF	OF21	56		118	Nick Markakis, Bal	OF48	111
44	Manny Machado, Bal	3B6	55		119	Jedd Gyorko, SD	2B13	127
45	Hanley Ramirez, LAD	SS2	37		120	Todd Frazier, Cin	3B15	NR
46	Carlos Beltran, StL	OF22	60		121	Nolan Arenado, Col	3B16	112
47	Chase Headley, SD	3B7	42		122	Norichika Aoki, Mil	OF49	110
48	Ian Desmond, Wsh	SS3	57		123	Alcides Escobar, KC	SS14	103
49	Josh Hamilton, LAA	OF23	53		124	Matt Joyce, TB	OF50	129
50	Troy Tulowitzki, Col	SS4	3		125	Colby Rasmus, Tor	OF51	NR
51	Adrian Gonzalez, LAD	1B9	30		126	Eric Hosmer, KC	1B19	150
52	Alex Gordon, KC	OF24	46		127	Jurickson Profar, Tex	2B14	136
53	Joe Mauer, Min	C3	54		128	Shane Victorino, Bos	OF52	NR
54	Jason Heyward, Atl	OF25	48		129	Jed Lowrie, Oak	SS15	119
55	Nelson Cruz, Tex	OF26	63		130	Aaron Hill, Ari	2B15	138
56	Jose Altuve, Hou	2B6	58		131	Anthony Rendon, Wsh	2B16	131
57	Ben Zobrist, TB	2B7	52		132	Nick Swisher, Cle	OF53	114
58	Carlos Santana, Cle	C4	51		133	Alexei Ramirez, CWS	SS16	120
59	Starlin Castro, ChC	SS5	67		134	Alfonso Soriano, ChC	OF54	116
60	Howie Kendrick, LAA	2B8	65		135	Jayson Werth, Wsh	OF55	141
61	Everth Cabrera, SD	SS6	43		136	Miguel Montero, Ari	C13	NR
62	Domonic Brown, Phi	OF27	64		137	Angel Pagan, SF	OF56	143
63	Billy Butler, KC	1B10	50		138	Mark Reynolds, Cle	1B20	122
64	Brett Gardner, NYY	OF28	66		139	Adam Dunn, CWS	1B21	NR
65	Jose Reyes, Tor	SS7	84		140	A.J. Pierzynski, Tex	C14	145
66	Michael Cuddyer, Col	OF29	68		141	Neil Walker, Pit	2B17	130
67	Pablo Sandoval, SF	3B8	75		142	Chris Carter, Hou	1B22	140
68	Anthony Rizzo, ChC	1B11	59		143	Andrelton Simmons, Atl	SS17	NR
69	Martin Prado, Ari	3B9	70		144	Nate Schierholtz, ChC	OF57	NR
70	Starling Marte, Pit	OF30	77		145	Matt Dominguez, Hou	3B17	NR
71	Matt Kemp, LAD	OF31	61		146	Daniel Nava, Bos	OF58	146
72	Jimmy Rollins, Phi	SS8	78		147	Justin Morneau, Min	1B23	124
73	Chase Utley, Phi	2B9	79		148	Kyle Blanks, SD	OF59	147
74	Curtis Granderson, NYY	OF32	83		149	Brett Lawrie, Tor	3B18	128
75	Elvis Andrus, Tex	SS9	62		150	Nick Franklin, Sea	SS18	NR

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[HacheMan]

Wheeler wins debut; Mets acquire Young

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

Wow, Tuesday was a big day for the New York Mets. After all, how else can one describe the emotion that comes with trading for outfielder Eric Young Jr.

On the field, the Mets swept a doubleheader from the first-place Atlanta Braves, and did so with the 1-2 punch of right-handers Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler on display. Harvey has been sensational all season, and on Tuesday, he fanned 13 Braves over seven innings for his sixth win in seven decisions. It would certainly be fun if Harvey, 24, starts for the NL in the All-Star game next month in his home ballpark of Citi Field. Harvey was sold high in two of my leagues this week, which is wise if one can procure top offensive help. However, he’s not really the definition of a sell-high pitcher, despite being 13th on the Player Rater, since there’s really no clear sign of regression coming. If I were to re-rank today, Harvey would be among my top 10 starting pitchers.

As for Wheeler, his much-awaited big-league debut was a success, as he overcame early command issues to toss six shutout innings and earn the win. Wheeler walked five and struck out seven, the first pitcher to combine those numbers with nary a run allowed in his debut since Cole Hamels in 2006. Wheeler was sent back to the minors after the game, but is scheduled for two starts next week, at the Chicago White Sox and versus the Washington Nationals. Like Harvey, Wheeler is going to miss plenty of bats, but there’s no guarantee he’ll have the same early success of his teammate. Still, Mets fans have to be excited, as this is merely the second duo in MLB history, each 24 or younger, to start and win on the same day while totaling at least 20 strikeouts.

Expectations for Wheeler should be held in check; as colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft noted Tuesday, many young pitchers are facing potential innings cap issues that could halt their -- and your -- seasons prematurely. While Wheeler does have a clear path to a rotation spot, the Mets aren’t going to risk his future with tack-on September issues. Projecting 15 starts from this point on might be aggressive, but an ERA in the low- to mid-3s and a strikeout per inning is not.

By the way, the Young acquisition from the Colorado Rockies for minor league pitcher Collin McHugh shouldn’t be completely overlooked; the Mets, despite Marlon Byrd's heroics power-wise, feature the worst outfield in baseball. Young, 28, is no panacea for the future, as he’s proven to be inconsistent at the plate and weak defensively -- he shouldn’t be anywhere near second base -- but he’s a major stolen base threat, likely leadoff option, and most importantly, he’s going to play. If you need cheap stolen bases, Young should provide them. It’s the rare time a hitter leaving the friendly confines of Coors Field actually sees his value rise.

Box score bits (NL): There were few bright spots in Atlanta’s lost day, as the Braves scored four runs in two games and placed the majors’ top rookie power option on the disabled list. Evan Gattis has a strained right oblique. Fantasy owners were realizing that he was trending poorly anyways, no longer a top-15 catcher (only two hits in June, though each were home runs), and he surely should be dropped in 10- and 12-team one-catcher leagues. … Arizona Diamondbacks disappointment Martin Prado smacked a two-run homer Tuesday, and there’s every indication even better times are ahead, thanks to a low BABIP. The guy is a career .290 hitter. Buy low. … San Francisco Giants second baseman Marco Scutaro had two hits Tuesday, proving he can play through an injured finger. If so, he remains worth owning for his batting average even in shallow leagues. … Remember when many wanted to give up on Giants right-hander Matt Cain? His 10-strikeout, 2-run outing Tuesday continued his rejuvenation. His season WHIP is down to 1.13. … Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard stroked a stand-up triple Tuesday, though from his gait it was clear that knee woes are an ongoing issue. It’s really not a good time to buy low on Howard, for health and performance reasons.

Box score bits (AL): Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Wil Myers made his long-awaited debut Tuesday, hitting a single in seven at-bats in double-header losses to the Boston Red Sox. Myers was certainly aggressive in his at-bats, seeing a total of 21 pitches. There’s plenty of good to come, but don’t be surprised if he struggles the first few weeks. Yasiel Puig notwithstanding, it’s the new starting pitchers that tend to have instant success. … Cleveland Indians third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall is back from Triple-A Columbus, where he hit .390 with power over four weeks, though he was hitless in three at-bats for the Tribe Tuesday. Is Chisenhall merely a 4-A player? It’s too early to give up on a potential 20-home run hitter. … Meanwhile, Indians closer Chris Perez did not enjoy his rehab outing for Double-A Akron Tuesday, allowing three home runs and five runs in his one inning of work. Vinnie Pestano, who earned his second save for the Indians, should get another week of closing, at least. … Oakland Athletics right-hander Jarrod Parker continued his fine work, beating the Texas Rangers with seven innings of two-run ball. Parker has eight consecutive quality starts, and he’s safe to use in any ballpark. … The Seattle Mariners welcomed back first baseman Justin Smoak (quad) from the disabled list Tuesday, and he homered in four at-bats. Still, there’s little reason to believe Smoak can hit enough for 10- or 12-team formats. After all, he is a career .225 hitter. … Josh Hamilton hit into three double plays by the fifth inning Tuesday night and finished 0-for-5. I’m still not buying low on Hamilton, but if he continues to bat second in the lineup, he might harm Mike Trout’s potential for runs scored. Trout was erased on the bases each time!

 

[HacheMan]

Setting expectations for recent call-ups

By Keith Law | ESPN.com

Teams that like to delay promoting top prospects until the point in the year when it's late enough to avoid giving the player a shot at Super 2 status in arbitration can breathe easily now, as we're well past that date, as shown by recent and imminent call-ups of four prospects -- Wil Myers, Zack Wheeler, Mike Zunino and Gerrit Cole -- who appeared on my top 25 update in late May.

With Myers and Wheeler debuting Tuesday night, here are my thoughts on those four guys as well as three others we might see in the majors in the next month or so.

Zack Wheeler, RHP | New York Mets

Although expectations have been set sky-high by the remarkable stuff shown by Matt Harvey, Wheeler, once the superior prospect in my opinion, has a decent gap to close just to catch up to his fellow Met. <!--offer-->

A scout I spoke to who saw him recently said that Wheeler's curveball, once a plus pitch in my view, was just average for him as Wheeler was throwing both a curveball and a slider and seemed to be caught between the two of them. Harvey's slider has been the main difference-maker for him, as he came out of college more of a fastball-changeup guy who threw both breaking balls but wasn't consistently plus with either of them. Wheeler might get there at some point, but unless the Mets thought his curveball wasn't plus, it doesn't make sense to me to try to get him throwing both pitches unless he showed natural feel for the new pitch (the slider).

He still has plenty to recommend him, as he works with plus velocity and fills up the strike zone, with just 12 walks in his past eight starts, but I'd like to see him settle on just one breaking ball so he can miss bats in the majors the way he has done in the minors so far.

Wil Myers, OF | Tampa Bay Rays

I saw Myers in April and was a little concerned about his swing mechanics, especially the soft front side, where he rolled over his front foot through contact, pulling his whole body in that direction regardless of where the pitch was. Since then, the Rays have worked with him on maintaining a firm lower half during rotation and contact and on improving his hitting plan at the plate.

Myers has always been a high-walk hitter, but not always as disciplined as you would expect given the stat lines, something that became more apparent this year in Triple-A, where pitchers with some big league experience could get him to get himself out at the plate. He's been on a tear of late, with 10 homers in his past 104 plate appearance (dating to the start of a four-game series in Scranton), a .354/.385/.760 line in that period and a declining strikeout rate.

The sample is too small to be anything more than "a good sign" at this point, but, combined with some mechanical adjustments, there's more reason to believe he can contribute for the rest of the year, probably with a .250-.260 average but 15 or more homers, than there was a month ago.

Mike Zunino, C | Seattle Mariners

I was floored when the Mariners recalled Zunino last week, and I wasn't the only one -- several front-office executives told me they were similarly shocked because Zunino wasn't playing well enough to be recalled and, worse, because it flew in the face of the long-term interests of the franchise.

Starting Zunino's service-time clock prematurely might not matter in the long run; if he came up now or in September, and never goes back down (not a given), it wouldn't affect his free agency. But they put him on the 40-man roster before they needed to do so, a decision that can't be undone; he's there for years now, potentially precluding them from making other moves now or even during the winter. Worse, given that he didn't show any indication he was ready in Triple-A -- after hitting four homers in his first five games, he hit .213/.283/.409 until his call-up, with 53 strikeouts in 184 PAs -- there's a real chance he's not-ready enough that recalling him will stall his development. You can't risk screwing up a player of his potential or pedigree like this, especially when you still have the full six years of control remaining.

That's a long way of saying that I'm not that sanguine about Zunino in the short term -- his difficulty making contact in the PCL, a generally hitter-friendly league, doesn't bode well for his ability to do that against big league pitching. If he doesn't suffer from the early promotion, he still has All-Star potential down the road, a catcher who should hit for 20-homer power and plenty of average, but this was the wrong move for the franchise from a business and a baseball perspective.

Gerrit Cole, RHP | Pittsburgh Pirates

Cole has top-of-the-rotation stuff with a good delivery and plenty of athleticism to repeat everything, checking all of the boxes required for someone to project as a legitimate ace, someone who could lead a solid big league rotation, or qualify as a top-20 starter in the majors. His results have never matched the scouting reports, though, and if you've seen his first two starts, you have seen the two major reasons why, as he has fanned a total of three batters.

First, hitters see his four-seamer way too well. Cole has thrown 129 fastballs so far, and hitters have swung and missed at just 10 of them -- despite the fact that Cole hasn't exactly faced any powerhouse lineups so far. Worse, he has thrown just nine changeups in two starts, even though that is and has long been his best pitch, with incredible arm speed to deceive hitters and to make the four-seamer more effective because hitters won't be able to cheat on it so easily.

I still think Cole has enormous upside in the long run, but the Pirates have had their hands on him for two years and, through two starts, he does not appear to be any better than he was when he first signed. If nothing else, they need to alter his pitching plan to use more changeups and two-seamers and fewer four-seamers, especially within the zone.

Possible near-term call-ups

Jonathan Singleton, 1B | Houston Astros

Singleton was suspended for a second violation of the CBA's "drug of abuse" provision -- he tested positive for marijuana, a drug for which players on the 40-man roster are not tested and that has nowhere near the potential harm to the player or to his team that, say, driving while intoxicated might have. That aside, Singleton is back from his ridiculous 50-game layoff, showed enough in 11 games in Double-A (where he spent last season) for the Astros to bump him up to Triple-A, where he has gone 3-for-8 with three doubles so far.

The Astros' incumbent first baseman is 35-year-old Carlos Pena, hitting .225/.338/.369 while a shadowy figure wearing a baseball cap and holding a scythe stands over his shoulder. Singleton could top that line in the second half this year, with a little more average and pop.

Yordano Ventura, RHP | Kansas City Royals

Ventura throws a legit 100 mph as a starter -- more like 95-100, but triple digits are pretty uncommon outside of bullpens and the occasional seven-day rotation in college. If he were taller, I'd have him as a potential No. 1 or 2 starter, but Ventura's lack of height (he's 5-foot-11) translates to some fly ball tendencies that likely will make him a little more homer-prone in the majors than you'd like.

Regardless of Ventura's future role, however, if the Royals remain competitive -- even just by hanging around .500 into August -- they could bring him up at any point to help their bullpen the way David Price helped the Rays in 2008.

Anthony Ranaudo, RHP | Boston Red Sox

I'm stretching a little here to discuss Ranaudo, as it's not clear that he'd be the next pitcher recalled if the Red Sox need another starter. I loved Ranaudo at LSU, even though he did not have a huge fastball, because hitters didn't see the ball out of his hand at all and he could miss bats with the curveball.

An elbow issue messed with his junior year, dropping him out of the top 10 on my 2010 draft rankings and into the second round in the real world, and his career seemed to stall out after a shoulder injury and a groin strain wrecked his 2012 season. This year, his stuff is more than back -- he's been 92-95 consistently with a plus-plus curveball, hard in the low to mid-80s, and he's back to his old aggressive dare-you-to-hit-this mentality on the mound, as well.

I don't expect the Red Sox to rush him, but, at some point, they'll have to try someone other than Allen Webster to fill a hole in the rotation.

 

[HacheMan]

Next prospects up

By Jason A. Churchill | ESPN.com

In recent days, Anthony Rendon, Zack Wheeler, Wil Myers, Mike Zunino and Gerrit Cole have each been called up to the big leagues. The next wave of candidates for similar treatment are seasoning in the minors right now and may include the following premium talents. The first two were suggested and discussed by ESPN Insider's Keith Law:<offer>Yordano Ventura, RHP -- Kansas City Royals
Ventura, 22, was just promoted from Double-A to Triple-A two weeks ago, but as Law notes he throws really hard -- up to 100 mph -- and could help the Royals in a relief role this summer. He's struck out 90 batters in 72 1/3 innings this season.

Jonathan Singleton, 1B -- Houston Astros
Singleton is back from his 50-game suspension and in 14 games has hit and hit with some power. He was promoted to Triple-A after just 11 games in Double-A and is not likely to remain in the minors much longer if he continues to perform.

Sonny Gray, RHP -- Oakland Athletics
Gray continues to have the occasional hiccup with his control -- he issued five bases on balls three starts ago -- but he's also shown more consistency in that department than a year ago and has kept the ball down in the zone and out of the middle of the plate, serving up just three long balls in more than 80 innings of work. The next time the A's need a starter, Gray, who is missing bats at a rate of one strikeout per inning, could get the nod.

Nick Castellanos, OF -- Detroit Tigers
We've discussed Castellanos here before, and the 21-year-old has sustained his performance for more than a full month, and he's not slowing down. He's batting .362/.430/.594 in June, has cut down the strikeouts and increased his walk rate without sacrificing power. The division-leading Tigers may not be ready to call on Castellanos just yet, but barring the club's top pick in 2010 hitting a wall soon, he may force their hand.

It's worth noting that the Super Two threshold is nearing, and clubs likely will soon hit a safe date range for avoiding starting the arbitration clock on their top young talents. The status is based on a percentage -- 22 percent -- rather than an exact date, so clubs generally play it safe. The top 22 percent of the players (in terms of service days) with more than two years of big-league service, but less than three years, will qualify for Super Two arbitration status, granting them a fourth year of such eligibility and another substantial raise in salary. The safe date is likely to be in late June, and may even hit July. We won't know for sure for a few years, as this year's first-year players won't become potential Super Two candidates until after the 2015 season, and there's no guarantee that all of the call-ups will remain in the majors and accrue major-league service every day between now and the end of the '15 season.</offer>

 

[HacheMan]

Workload factor for young starters

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Lost in the disappointment of Michael Wacha's demotion was this: Part of the reason he, rather than Tyler Lyons, was assigned to Triple-A Memphis was the team's admitted concern for his workload.

Wacha did have a 4.58 ERA in three starts, so performance might have weighed equally, but St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Matheny confirmed that the rookie right-hander will face some sort of innings cap this season, whether he spends the rest of it in Memphis or St. Louis.

"We'll have to look over his whole workload," Matheny told the Cardinals' official website Friday. "We don't want to find ourselves in a situation at the end of the year where we have a kid that we can't use because he's had too much work. We're trying to be smart about that and also allow him to work on some things. When he comes back, we'll see how he throws."

In this age of pitch counts, relief specialization and 33-start seasons -- no starter has made 36 or more starts in 10 years, and there hasn't been a 35-start campaign since 2010 -- careful management of youngsters' seasonal workloads are all the rage. They're frequently called "innings caps," and whatever your opinion of them, they are something 21st-century baseball teams take seriously.

The Cardinals' approach with Wacha is understandable; he is in the midst of his first full professional season. The No. 19 overall pick in the 2012 draft, Wacha amassed 21 innings in the minor leagues last season on the heels of the 113 1/3 he threw for Texas A&M that spring for a total of 134 1/3 innings. This season, he has pitched 70 1/3 innings between Memphis and St. Louis. Using the Cardinals' schedule for pace setting, that puts him on track for 162 2/3, or a 28 1/3-inning increase. While that might not sound like a lot, keep in mind that he made his first start of 2012 for Texas A&M on Feb. 17 and the final one on June 1. His first appearance for the Cardinals' Gulf Coast League rookie affiliate came on July 11, and his final appearance for Double-A Springfield was on Sept. 15. He had a six-week midsummer respite while negotiating his contract with the Cardinals and was switched to relief shortly after joining the organization. It was a loooooong year.


Whether the Cardinals would have been smarter to reserve Wacha's remaining innings for the majors is a legitimate debate, but now that he has been demoted, the issue of his workload has moved front-and-center. With Lyons' struggles in his most recent turn, you might have heard whispers of doubt in the Cardinals' decision. Instead, you're hearing Wacha or Carlos Martinez, demoted to Memphis 18 days earlier to return to starting, as future replacement candidates.

Martinez might, in fact, be the better bet for the next promotion, if judging strictly by workload concerns. Though more than two months younger than Wacha -- they are both 21, but Wacha turns 22 on July 1, Martinez on Sept. 21 -- Martinez's conversion to relief during his brief stint with the big club in May suppressed his season innings pace; he's on track for 96 1/3 innings, which is eight fewer than he threw in the minors in 2012. Oh, and Martinez has a 2.45 ERA and 21 K's in 22 innings in his five starts since being demoted.

If you play in a deep mixed or NL-only league with the bench room to afford it, Martinez is every bit as attractive a long-term stash as Wacha.

Like Wacha, a fellow rookie starter has also been surrounded by "innings cap" chatter all season: Zack Wheeler, who is set to make his major league debut for the New York Mets on Tuesday.

"I know that Zack had about 150 innings last year, so given that base, he's probably this year limited to about 180 or 185, which ought to be plenty," Mets general manager Sandy Alderson told the New York Daily News in mid-May. "We try to build maybe 30 innings per year."

Wheeler, 23, has thrown 68 2/3 innings in the minors this season, for a pace of 173 2/3. That would be 24 2/3 more than he threw between Double- and Triple-A last season (149), easily within Alderson's target range.

Still, as innings tend to pile up more quickly at the big league level -- the schedule is longer, for one thing -- Wheeler might not quite make it to the regular-season finale. There's another potential obstacle in his path: As he is a member of a team 15 games under .500 and 14 1/2 out in the National League East, the Mets might decide that there's little point in pushing their most promising prospects in meaningless September games.

That's also the concern with fellow Mets right-hander Matt Harvey, the No. 8 starting pitcher on our Player Rater. Just 24 years old, Harvey has thrown 97 innings this season, for a pace of 245 2/3. That would represent an increase of 76 1/3 (after throwing 169 1/3 in 2012). Oddly, while Alderson mentioned a target number of innings for Wheeler, Mets vice president of player development and scouting Paul DePodesta had a different angle on Harvey's workload.

"It all depends on the individual and the composition of his individual innings. ... Pitch counts, stress of pitches and rest all factor in the final equation," DePodesta told ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin. "For instance, if a guy throws 170 innings over 28 starts and throws 105 pitches per game, he might actually go 210 innings the following year on 30 starts with an average of 100 pitches per game. On the surface, it's a 40-inning jump, but it was largely because he became more efficient with his pitches and added two starts."

It's refreshing to hear DePodesta cite workload management in terms of statistics other than outs recorded (what innings pitched actually credit), a performance-based metric, instead examining things like pitches thrown or batters faced, which are volume-based. This idea of a hard cap of plus-30 innings for pitchers under the age of 25 seems awfully arbitrary; the addition of 40 innings for a 24-year-old isn't always more taxing than 20 more for a 20-year-old.

That said, the Mets' performance almost assuredly has them counting every one of his frames beyond 200. While I've heard the theory that the team might deliberately alter his schedule to use up his innings in home games -- he has made nine of his 14 starts at Citi Field -- the attendance figures don't support it; the team has averaged 636 fewer fans in games Harvey pitched. This is a bad team, one that might rein him in during September accordingly -- at least once he passes that 200-inning threshold.

Let's examine a few more young starting pitchers who might face innings caps this season. Listed in parentheses are their ages (birthdays listed if upcoming within the 2013 regular season), 2013 innings pace, 2012 total innings and the difference between the two. All innings totals include major and minor league stats. A "worry level," ranging from low to moderate to high to extreme, is also included.


Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins (20 years old, turns 21 on July 31; 169 2/3 innings pace; 134 innings in 2012; 35 2/3-inning increase): Few pitchers spawn the innings-cap question more than Fernandez, if only because of his age and his placement on the worst team of baseball, which is sure to shut him down at the earliest opportunity. What the Marlins have done with their prized right-handed prospect, however, is a brilliant bit of in-progress workload management. Fernandez has a 3.11 ERA, so you might be surprised to learn that he has averaged 86.8 pitches per start, has only once thrown as many as 100 pitches and has a major league-leading 10 games of 90 pitches or fewer. The Marlins are pacing Fernandez nicely enough that even if he's shut down, it would be in September and would be almost entirely a product of the team's record. Worry level: Moderate.

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals (24 years old, turns 25 on July 20; 186 1/3 innings pace; 159 1/3 innings in 2012; 27-inning increase): He's relevant from two angles, the first that he was shut down due to a hard innings cap in 2012, the other that teammate Jordan Zimmermann's 161 1/3-to-195 2/3 innings pattern from 2011-12 seems like the blueprint for Strasburg's 2013. Strasburg is mostly on pace due to his current DL stint, but the Nationals have another factor to consider: Might they want to reserve some of his frames for a potential postseason run? Strasburg won't be the poster boy for the 2013 innings-cap debate, but he's not entirely exempt either. Worry level: Low.

Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates (22 years old, turns 23 on Sept. 8; 185 innings pace; 132 innings in 2012; 53-inning increase): He'll be the most on-the-fence cap candidate of them all. He's a member of a Pirates squad that finds itself currently positioned for a playoff spot yet is a team that has a history of second-half collapses and one that might not push its 22-year-old top prospect in games lacking in relevance. Still, Pirates general manager Neal Huntington hinted in mid-March that Cole wouldn't necessarily be capped. "I don't think we want him to get to 250 innings this year, but he's going to be free to go," Huntington told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. We'll see how truthful you were, Neal, should your team find itself 11 games out on Labor Day, as it was last season. Worry level: High.

Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles (22 years old; 162 innings pace; 138 2/3 innings in 2012; 23 1/3-inning increase): Gausman's 2012 total includes the 123 2/3 innings he threw for LSU, which, like Wacha, came in a season that began Feb. 17 and concluded June 10. Though the Orioles haven't publicly announced Gausman's innings cap, rumored numbers range from 150-175, the latter a reasonable high-end guess. He's seemingly right on pace, but after his poor performance during his initial big league stint, the Orioles might take a more conservative approach to his next recall due to workload concerns. Worry level: High.

Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves (22 years old; 192 innings pace; 137 1/3 innings in 2012; 54 2/3-inning increase): Here's another curious case from multiple angles, the first and most obvious being that the Braves, who have Brandon Beachy working his way back from Tommy John surgery (recent setback notwithstanding), have alternatives if they want to ease off Teheran's workload. The Braves appear destined for the postseason, meaning they might want to save some of Teheran's innings for October. Plus, the right-hander's recent breakthrough has actually advanced his season pace for innings. Sure, Teheran has tallied 137 1/3, 164 1/3 and 142 2/3 innings the past three seasons working backward, but would the Braves dare to push him to 190 and beyond? I say no, and it's the main reason he hasn't soared higher in my rankings. Worry level: High.

Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals (22 years old; 199 2/3 innings pace; 150 1/3 innings in 2012; 49 1/3-inning increase): After Harvey, Miller is arguably the next most relevant pitcher subject to an innings cap. Conveniently enough, Miller ranks exactly one spot higher than Harvey among starting pitchers on our Player Rater (seventh, to Harvey's eighth). Though Miller's professional innings totals have gone from 104 1/3 to 139 2/3 to 150 1/3, the Cardinals have the most compelling reason of all to monitor his workload. They're also probably playoff-bound, and Miller would be, at worst, their No. 3 starter in October. Per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch in mid-May, Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak acknowledged Miller's workload concern, though it is unclear whether it would manifest as a hard innings limit. If there is to be a 2013 "Stephen Strasburg" (referencing his 2012 playoff absence), Miller is it. Worry level: Moderate.

Finally, what of those "worry levels" for Wacha and the Mets kids?

Wacha's worry level: High.
Wheeler's worry level: Low.
Harvey's worry level: Moderate.

Adjust your rest-of-year rankings accordingly. Or just check 'em out below.

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[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For starter- or reliever-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column. These rankings can also be seen split up by position.

<center>Rnk</center>	Player, Team	<center>Pos Rnk</center>	<center>Prev Rnk</center>	<center></center>	<center>Rnk</center>	Player	<center>Pos Rnk</center>	<center>Prev Rnk</center>
1	Clayton Kershaw, LAD	SP1	1		76	Kevin Gregg, ChC	RP21	78
2	Felix Hernandez, Sea	SP2	2		77	Rick Porcello, Det	SP56	105
3	Adam Wainwright, StL	SP3	3		78	Zack Wheeler, NYM	SP57	95
4	Justin Verlander, Det	SP4	4		79	Jim Henderson, Mil	RP22	72
5	Yu Darvish, Tex	SP5	5		80	Heath Bell, Ari	RP23	67
6	Max Scherzer, Det	SP6	7		81	Trevor Cahill, Ari	SP58	81
7	Cliff Lee, Phi	SP7	6		82	Andrew Bailey, Bos	RP24	76
8	Madison Bumgarner, SF	SP8	9		83	Rex Brothers, Col	RP25	89
9	Stephen Strasburg, Wsh	SP9	8		84	Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea	RP26	55
10	Craig Kimbrel, Atl	RP1	11		85	Jason Vargas, LAA	SP59	88
11	Aroldis Chapman, Cin	RP2	12		86	Tim Hudson, Atl	SP60	97
12	Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh	SP10	10		87	Chris Perez, Cle	RP27	92
13	Matt Harvey, NYM	SP11	14		88	Jonathon Niese, NYM	SP61	82
14	Cole Hamels, Phi	SP12	13		89	Wandy Rodriguez, Pit	SP62	79
15	Chris Sale, CWS	SP13	16		90	Francisco Liriano, Pit	SP63	87
16	Gio Gonzalez, Wsh	SP14	18		91	Gerrit Cole, Pit	SP64	122
17	Mike Minor, Atl	SP15	17		92	Jake Peavy, CWS	SP65	93
18	Mariano Rivera, NYY	RP3	15		93	Bartolo Colon, Oak	SP66	107
19	CC Sabathia, NYY	SP16	23		94	Andrew Cashner, SD	SP67	100
20	Matt Cain, SF	SP17	31		95	Mike Leake, Cin	SP68	119
21	Zack Greinke, LAD	SP18	20		96	Jose Veras, Hou	RP28	109
22	Shelby Miller, StL	SP19	26		97	Travis Wood, ChC	SP69	114
23	Jeff Samardzija, ChC	SP20	22		98	Brandon Beachy, Atl	SP70	84
24	Jason Grilli, Pit	RP4	27		99	Ryan Dempster, Bos	SP71	85
25	Mat Latos, Cin	SP21	25		100	Trevor Rosenthal, StL	RP29	101
26	Addison Reed, CWS	RP5	29		101	David Phelps, NYY	SP72	102
27	Jered Weaver, LAA	SP22	21		102	Jeremy Hellickson, TB	SP73	91
28	Homer Bailey, Cin	SP23	32		103	Corey Kluber, Cle	SP74	NR
29	Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea	SP24	37		104	Jose Valverde, Det	RP30	83
30	James Shields, KC	SP25	33		105	Rafael Betancourt, Col	RP31	104
31	Jonathan Papelbon, Phi	RP6	34		106	Steve Cishek, Mia	RP32	148
32	Hiroki Kuroda, NYY	SP26	36		107	Kyle Lohse, Mil	SP75	94
33	Clay Buchholz, Bos	SP27	30		108	Jorge De La Rosa, Col	SP76	110
34	Rafael Soriano, Wsh	RP7	42		109	Brandon Morrow, Tor	SP77	103
35	Edward Mujica, StL	RP8	41		110	Ian Kennedy, Ari	SP78	112
36	Lance Lynn, StL	SP28	35		111	Dan Straily, Oak	SP79	115
37	Kenley Jansen, LAD	RP9	77		112	Miguel Gonzalez, Bal	SP80	136
38	Johnny Cueto, Cin	SP29	38		113	Jhoulys Chacin, Col	SP81	125
39	Jim Johnson, Bal	RP10	53		114	Mark Melancon, Pit	RP33	118
40	Doug Fister, Det	SP30	48		115	John Lackey, Bos	SP82	116
41	Sergio Romo, SF	RP11	39		116	David Robertson, NYY	RP34	117
42	Greg Holland, KC	RP12	52		117	Andy Pettitte, NYY	SP83	106
43	Joe Nathan, Tex	RP13	43		118	Joaquin Benoit, Det	RP35	139
44	Jon Lester, Bos	SP31	28		119	Tim Lincecum, SF	SP84	111
45	Alex Cobb, TB	SP32	40		120	A.J. Griffin, Oak	SP85	108
46	Glen Perkins, Min	RP14	47		121	Dan Haren, Wsh	SP86	99
47	David Price, TB	SP33	46		122	Brandon McCarthy, Ari	SP87	124
48	Anibal Sanchez, Det	SP34	19		123	Alexi Ogando, Tex	SP88	127
49	Patrick Corbin, Ari	SP35	50		124	Tony Cingrani, Cin	SP89	98
50	Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD	SP36	45		125	Luke Gregerson, SD	RP36	121
51	Matt Moore, TB	SP37	24		126	Kyle Kendrick, Phi	SP90	113
52	Julio Teheran, Atl	SP38	54		127	Dillon Gee, NYM	SP91	NR
53	Casey Janssen, Tor	RP15	61		128	Jeff Locke, Pit	SP92	137
54	Kris Medlen, Atl	SP39	49		129	David Hernandez, Ari	RP37	120
55	Fernando Rodney, TB	RP16	51		130	Bud Norris, Hou	SP93	135
56	R.A. Dickey, Tor	SP40	56		131	Ryan Madson, LAA	RP38	123
57	Grant Balfour, Oak	RP17	59		132	Marco Estrada, Mil	SP94	141
58	A.J. Burnett, Pit	SP41	44		133	Joel Peralta, TB	RP39	126
59	Jarrod Parker, Oak	SP42	63		134	Jacob Turner, Mia	SP95	142
60	Jose Fernandez, Mia	SP43	65		135	Wade Miley, Ari	SP96	134
61	Josh Johnson, Tor	SP44	71		136	Eric Stults, SD	SP97	145
62	Chris Tillman, Bal	SP45	62		137	Vinnie Pestano, Cle	RP40	129
63	C.J. Wilson, LAA	SP46	64		138	Edwin Jackson, ChC	SP98	NR
64	Matt Garza, ChC	SP47	57		139	Brett Anderson, Oak	SP99	131
65	Ervin Santana, KC	SP48	75		140	Brandon League, LAD	RP41	96
66	Justin Masterson, Cle	SP49	68		141	Ryan Cook, Oak	RP42	130
67	Derek Holland, Tex	SP50	58		142	Tyler Clippard, Wsh	RP43	143
68	Tommy Milone, Oak	SP51	60		143	Jesse Crain, CWS	RP44	NR
69	Yovani Gallardo, Mil	SP52	80		144	Samuel Deduno, Min	SP100	149
70	Ernesto Frieri, LAA	RP18	73		145	Drew Smyly, Det	RP45	NR
71	Bobby Parnell, NYM	RP19	69		146	Michael Wacha, StL	SP101	66
72	Phil Hughes, NYY	SP53	74		147	Ross Detwiler, Wsh	SP102	NR
73	Huston Street, SD	RP20	86		148	John Axford, Mil	RP46	NR
74	Paul Maholm, Atl	SP54	70		149	Felix Doubront, Bos	SP103	128
75	Ricky Nolasco, Mia	SP55	90		150	Bronson Arroyo, Cin	SP103	132

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[HacheMan]

[h=1]Surging Padres can win NL West[/h][h=3]San Diego's sneaky-deep lineup is key to latest winning streak[/h]By Paul Swydan | ESPN Insider
At the end of April, the spread in the ESPN Power Rankings for the denizens of the National League West was wide. But over the past two months, the division has congealed. One of the primary factors has been the play of the San Diego Padres, who now rank a season-best 16th overall. Sporting an above-.500 record for the first time since 2011, the Padres have overcome their slow start and are very much a factor in what has proven to be a soft NL West.
<offer>The Padres have clawed their way back to respectability almost entirely on the backs of their position players. They are allowing fewer runs to be sure, but entering Sunday they had allowed 4.61 runs per game in the past month. That's not exactly an encouraging sign. For the season, they are the only team whose pitchers collectively have a negative WAR. That is also less than encouraging, even allowing for the fact that they have been better as of late. Starters Jason Marquis and Clayton Richard in particular have been abhorrent. The two have combined to strike out 77 batters and walk 68, for an appalling 1.13 K/BB, in their 137 innings pitched. If San Diego is serious about trying to snatch the imminently winnable division crown, they should be replaced yesterday.
And despite the completely fallible pitching staff, the division is within their grasp thanks to what might be the deepest lineup in the National League. They have eight players who have posted at least 100 plate appearances and compiled a 100 wRC+ or better, which is tied for most in the majors with the Athletics, Braves and Rays. And the team is poised to potentially add Logan Forsythe to that group. Forsythe, who posted a 110 wRC+ last season, had been out all season with plantar fasciitis, but he returned this week and figures to see steady playing time.</offer>

Yasmani Grandal also stands to improve as he gets back into the groove. The catcher missed the first 50 games of the season following a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, and has been slow to get locked in at the dish. He's hit just .191/.304/.298 in his first 56 plate appearances, a far cry from the .297/.394/.469 line he posted last season. Grandal's plate discipline has remained intact this season though, so it should be only a matter of time before the rest of his game follows, especially when his batting average on balls in play rises from the paltry .200 where it currently resides.
Two of the more prominent players have been Everth Cabrera and Jedd Gyorko. Surprisingly, the two have been the most valuable middle infield combo in the game so far this season. They are both out of the lineup, as Gyorko is currently on the disabled list, and Cabrera may find himself there after injuring his hamstring Sunday. As Cabrera has played every single game of the season while posting a .382 OBP and league-leading 31 stolen bases, a prolonged absence from him would be a bitter pill to swallow.
Still, one of the team's other middle infielders, Alexi Amarista, is actually a member of the aforementioned deep group of hitters. Amarista is an extreme liability against lefties, but he has hit righties just fine. So even with Cabrera on the mend, all is not totally lost. Certainly, the team has not missed Gyorko. Even without the team leader in homers -- he hit the disabled list last Monday -- the Padres have reeled off six straight wins and counting with him sidelined.
In fact, this is how the Padres have operated all season. Chase Headley hurt? No problem, Gyorko can fill in. Gyorko hurt? No problem, Forsythe is ready to return. Cameron Maybin down for the count? It's fine, Chris Denorfia's got this. Yonder Alonso hurt his hand? No problem, Kyle Blanks is back, baby! And that's without even taking the oft-injured Carlos Quentin into account.
Of course, San Diego isn't in first place just yet. With the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Giants and Padres all separated by just two games, and the Dodgers still only 7 1/2 games back despite their abysmal start to the season, the NL West is very much anyone's game. And the three teams ahead of them don't quite have the balance problems that the Padres do.
The Padres have made a habit of second-half surges, but after a disastrous start they started their surge a little early this year. Until they give their starting rotation a makeover, they will be a bit suspect. But with no team pulling ahead in the NL West, San Diego now stands as good a chance to see October baseball as the rest of the division.