MLB Fantasy News 2013

[HacheMan]

Bits: Albert Pujols' foot 'hurting real bad'

Eric Karabell

Los Angeles Angels first baseman Albert Pujols, a first-rounder in many fantasy drafts for this season, has a respectable .317 batting average after hitting a double in four at-bats Sunday afternoon. But that's hardly the story. It also came out Sunday that Pujols told the Los Angeles Times that the plantar fasciitis in his left foot clearly remains an issue. "I'm dying," Pujols said. "It's hurting real bad."

Yep, that's definitely an issue, and it's likely to panic fantasy owners enough to try to sell Pujols for whatever they can this week, before, as they tend to believe, the inevitable disabled list stint truncates his season. Well, I'll play the role of eternal optimist and still rely on and therefore trade for Pujols. I wouldn't part with a fellow first-rounder like Andrew McCutchen or Prince Fielder, but if this foot problem and the shocking quotes -- I mean, how often is an athlete this honest? -- creates a value opportunity, I'm certainly in.


<OFFER>Pujols went 6-for-13 this past weekend in a sweep of the Detroit Tigers with a pair of doubles, walks and runs scored, and this was against a good pitching staff, right-hander Rick Porcello excluded. (Still like Porcello from his spring training numbers? Ah, but I digress.) Anyway, if the worst thing that happens to Pujols is that he cannot play first base regularly and is stuck with designated hitter duties long-term, we'll take it. Of course, the worst thing would be a lengthy absence, but I don't see it coming any time soon. Pujols hit line drives all weekend. It's painful for us to watch him run to first base, and no doubt more painful for him, but even last season Pujols ended up hitting .285 with 30 home runs and 105 RBIs. He took a circuitous route to get there, starting the season terribly, but the hitting skills remain. If you expect a 40-homer, 120-RBI campaign, keep on dreaming, but that's not what we're talking about here.</OFFER>

The Angels say they'll keep using Pujols at DH as long as he can tolerate the pain, and judging by the future Hall of Famer's career and how he has managed to average 155 games played for the first 12 years of his career -- you know he must have played through injury before -- I don't see why a DL stint is inevitable. "He is particularly tough, mentally and physically," Angels GM Jerry Dipoto told the L.A. Times. "There's not a whole lot anybody can forecast. It's based on his own tolerance."

My personal tolerance for Pujols hate is actually well above normal. I stuck with him through his homerless April last season when he hit .217, buying low on him in one league, and enjoying three separate months with eight or more home runs and a .322 batting average from June through August. I ranked him seventh overall for this season, which matches his ESPN average draft position. He's not done. Yes, he's hurt, but from the at-bats I saw this past weekend, I'm not looking to sell Pujols in the leagues I have him. I don't expect him to steal bases in the foreseeable future, but he's capable of another 30-homer, 100-RBI season with a .300 batting average, and there aren't a ton of players who can still do this. Let's not assume this latest malady will trip up Pujols.

Box score bits (AL): Speaking of injured mashers, the Boston Red Sox welcomed David Ortiz (Achilles) back from the DL on Saturday, and he went 5-for-8 with a pair of RBIs in two games. Activate him immediately! … From old (Big Papi) to young: Right-hander Allen Webster was summoned for a Sunday doubleheader start, and it went reasonably well, with three runs (two earned) over six innings. He struck out five. Webster is already back with Triple-A Pawtucket, but we'll see him again, and there's promise. … Baltimore Orioles right-hander Jake Arrieta continues to struggle with walks. Including the five free passes he issued to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday, Arrieta has walked 14 in his past 14 innings. While walks weren't even remotely a problem in 2012, Arrieta can't be relied on now. … Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Roberto Hernandez -- you might know him as Fausto Carmona -- fanned seven Oakland Athletics on Sunday for his first win. Hernandez never used to be a big strikeout option, but he has whiffed seven in three of his four outings. Call it the Rays' rejuvenating pitching magic.

Box score bits (NL): Right-handers Chad Billingsley and Jhoulys Chacin each hit the DL this past weekend. For Billingsley, the Dodgers right-hander generally in demand but a noteworthy career underachiever, it's expected that his balky elbow will need Tommy John surgery. Time to move on. With Colorado Rockies ace Chacin, however, the back spasms that forced him prematurely from his last outing have been termed minor, though he'll obviously miss a few starts. If you own Chacin, who is 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, try to keep him. He has strikeout upside and has kept the walks down. … Joey Votto panic alert! The Cincinnati Reds first baseman entered the weekend with only one home run! Then he homered Saturday and Sunday. Still, although I take the under on 25 for the season, it's good to see him driving the ball. … Speaking of struggling hitters, Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton entered Sunday with nary an RBI in 12 games on the season. Well, he singled twice and knocked in a run Sunday. Still worried? I still view Stanton as a top-20 player; he's just off to a slow start. He didn't have lineup protection when he hit .290 and mashed 37 home runs in 123 games last year, either. … I don't think Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo will have a season like New York Mets first baseman Ike Davis did in 2012, with power and a low batting average. Rizzo smacked his sixth homer Sunday. He's hitting .210. He'll hit .270. Give it time.

 

[HacheMan]

Starting pitchers off to hot starts

By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

By and large, fantasy baseball enthusiasts know that all early-season analysis needs to be tempered by the small sample size from which it is generated. However, not everyone is aware that back in November 2007, current Baseball Prospectus author Russell Carleton, posting under the pseudonym "Pizza Cutter," answered the inevitable question, "How big does the sample have to be before we believe the data?"

In the "Statistically Speaking" blog, Carleton detailed numerous regression studies in which he determined the number of events necessary for certain baselines to stabilize. Hitters were looked at in terms of plate appearances, while pitchers were judged via batters faced. A "Cliffs Notes" version of Carleton's work is posted on Fangraphs and is a wonderful resource for those into the number-crunching element of this hobby.

Both hitting and pitching data is included, but because today's discussion focuses on hurlers, we'll share that data and then look at the hitting results in a future installment. Here's what Carleton discovered in terms of the pitching sample size necessary for select skills to stabilize. In other words, how many batters faced (BF) it takes for a new baseline to be considered real:

150 BF: strikeout (K) per plate appearance (PA), ground ball (GB) rate and line drive rate
200 BF: fly ball (FB) rate, GB/FB
500 BF: K/BB, popup rate
550 BF: BB/PA

At this point of the season, starting pitchers have faced about 100 batters, so none of the data has yet to stabilize. However, in today's landscape, the fantasy owner often cannot wait another couple of weeks for some of the data to be fully stable, let alone the months it will take for the bases on balls baseline to be trusted. As such, decisions must be made that are in part speculation. That said, at least with respect to strikeout and groundball rate, we're getting close to being able to make trustworthy analysis.

With that as a backdrop, let's put several pitchers who are off to a better-than-expected start under the microscope in an effort to discern which have the best chance to continue a high level of success and thus may be buy-high targets if their owners are looking to cash in. For each example, what to look for in terms of maintaining success will be highlighted, so at minimum you'll be able to monitor each in the coming weeks and have a leg up on your competition in terms of buying or selling these fast-starting arms.

Each pitcher will have a line with his 2013 numbers and a line with his career numbers. BIP is short for BABIP.


[h=4]Matt Harvey, New York Mets (103 batters faced, 29 innings pitched)[/h]

	ERA	xFIP	BIP	LOB%	K/9	BB/9	GB%	LD%	FB%	Pop%	HR/9	HR/FB
'13	0.93	3.19	.148	90.9	9.9	2.8	39.3	11.5	49.2	13.3	0.31	3.3
Car	2.14	3.39	.228	83.3	10.4	3.6	38.5	20.5	41.0	14.6	0.61	7.3

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We may as well start off with the most difficult specimen in the league. Conventional analysis suggests that Harvey has been extremely lucky with respect to batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and HR/FB%. The BABIP league average is around .295, while the mean HR/FB is 11 percent. Probability dictates both of these will regress toward league norms, which will in turn lead to a correction in his ERA as it trends more toward the xFIP above.

Of particular concern: Harvey appears to be a fly ball pitcher, or at least he has been so far, though this is partially mitigated by him inducing a higher than average number of infield flies, which is folded into the fly ball data. The concern is that once his HR/FB rate normalizes, his HR/9 will rise. That might not be as bad as it sounds, because high-strikeout pitchers such as Harvey minimize fly balls by allowing fewer balls to be put in play, not to mention many of those will continue to be popups. Harvey's HR/9 should remain below league average, but it likely will increase.

What is most intriguing is that Harvey's low BABIP is being driven by a low line-drive rate, and according to Pizza Cutter, line-drive rates are pretty quick to stabilize. We're still not to that point, so no definite conclusion can be drawn, but given that the BABIP of a fly ball pitcher is generally below league average and Harvey is two-thirds of the way toward exhibiting a line drive rate that is below league average, I'm comfortable in predicting he'll sport a BABIP that is below league average. I am reticent to characterize it as well below, but it wouldn't shock me if Harvey's BABIP was among the lowest in the league.

While the exact baseline is unclear, it's apparent that Harvey's strikeout rate will continue to be quite high, probably better than a batter per inning. This too should stabilize within a couple weeks.

The metric that will ultimately determine if Harvey is a bona fide ace or the tier below is his walk rate. Unfortunately, this will not stabilize for several months. That said, Harvey is off to an excellent start in this department. If I had to highlight one metric to monitor, it's Harvey's walk rate. As suggested, fly ball pitchers can be quite effective if they fan a bunch of hitters and minimize damage by not allowing many baserunners. The data points toward a paucity of hits, and if Harvey can limit the walks, we could be looking at a true No. 1 fantasy starter.

If Harvey's owner is looking to cash in and sell high, I'm all over it. Verdict: Buy high.


[h=4]Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox (101 BF, 26 IP)[/h]

	ERA	xFIP	BIP	LOB%	K/9	BB/9	GB%	LD%	FB%	Pop%	HR/9	HR/FB
'13	1.73	2.91	.260	79.2	8.0	1.4	47.2	25.0	27.8	2.9	0.00	0.0
Car	3.72	3.72	.300	74.9	8.2	3.3	48.0	19.2	32.8	6.3	0.83	9.9

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The number that stands out here is Lester's no homers allowed in 26 frames of work. You'll also note that Pizza Cutter did not include any home run data in his analysis, which indicates that nothing home run-related stabilized over the boundaries of his study (which was 750 plate appearances, in essence a full season). Obviously, Lester is going to serve up some dingers; we just can't analytically pinpoint the number of them, other than to say his HR/FB should regress toward the league average of 11 percent.

Looking at Lester's BABIP in concert with his line drives, it appears he has been quite fortunate, and while his line-drive percent is apt to fall, his BABIP likely will rise.

Coming into the season, many pundits felt the telltale sign for Lester would be his strikeout rate, as it has been in freefall mode over the past three seasons. Again with the caveat that we're only two-thirds of the way to our "for-real" baseline, it appears safe to say that at minimum, Lester has reversed the trend and looks to be fanning hitters at a rate closer to his career levels. This bodes well for the rest of the season.

As with Harvey, walks will be the ultimate key here. Presently, Lester is quite stingy with the free passes, but this will be the final baseline to stabilize. Perhaps this is partially a result of a low hit rate leading to the southpaw working a lot more from the windup, which helps his control. Once the hits start falling in, though, maybe his walks will increase a little as well.

It's fair to assume Lester is a different guy from last season's model. The real question is whether he is better than he was a couple years ago, when he was very good, but not great. That is, Lester was more of an upper-third-tier guy than elite. Ultimately, walks will be the determinant, and I'm not confident Lester will maintain this new baseline going forward, at least not to the level he has thus far.

While I wouldn't give him away, if I could get a 3.50-ERA pitcher and a hitting upgrade in return, I'd look to package Lester with a lesser hitter in a 2-for-2 deal. Verdict: Sell high.


[h=4]Paul Maholm, Atlanta Braves (103 BF, 26.1 IP)[/h]

	ERA	xFIP	BIP	LOB%	K/9	BB/9	GB%	LD%	FB%	Pop%	HR/9	HR/FB
'13	1.03	3.44	.212	93.5	8.5	2.7	51.6	17.2	31.3	5.0	0.34	5.0
Car	4.20	4.15	.304	71.4	5.8	2.9	52.1	19.4	28.5	7.5	0.83	10.1

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Maholm is a great test case to judge whether you believe in the data illuminated by analytical studies or whether you prefer to rely on your instincts and intuition. Aside from a BABIP that is in line for some serious regression, Maholm is the same pitcher he has always been, with one notable exception: His strikeout rate has spiked. The question is "fact or fiction?"

When I attempt to answer this question, I prefer not to blindly trust the data, as there are always exceptions. On the other hand, data is data, and the results are clear: It doesn't take as long, relatively speaking, to establish a new strikeout baseline. So I have to look beyond the chart above in an effort to learn the cause for the assumed effect.

Maholm's velocity is fundamentally the same as it has been the past several seasons. PitchFX data suggests he is throwing fewer cutters and sliders, while increasing the number of two-seam fastballs, curves and changeups. The difference is noteworthy, but not sufficient enough to hang one's hat on. That said, perhaps Maholm's change in pitch selection is the reason his strike percentage is up three points to 66 percent from his career mark of 63 percent. Based on pitch-efficiency data, Maholm is locating his fastball better than usual.

The percentage of Maholm's pitches inside the strike zone that batters are swinging at is five percentage points lower than normal, which helps explain the increased whiffs, along with a 3 percent increase in swinging strikes. Still, the root cause of these increased strikes, both called and swinging, is not obvious, so I consider it a leap of faith to call it sustainable. But once again, data is data. There very well may be an underlying reason for Maholm's spike in strikeouts.

I'm not comfortable enough either way to go out on a limb with Maholm. I'd like to see what happens over the next 50 batters faced before I make a definitive conclusion. Verdict: Hold.


[h=4]Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays (72 BF, 18 IP)[/h]

	ERA	xFIP	BIP	LOB%	K/9	BB/9	GB%	LD%	FB%	Pop%	HR/9	HR/FB
'13	1.00	3.72	.175	96.6	10.0	5.5	52.5	12.5	35.0	0.0	0.50	7.1
Car	3.52	4.18	.288	75.1	9.2	4.2	38.7	19.1	42.2	13.8	0.88	8.6

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Given that Moore's BABIP likely will regress, which in turn will impact his LOB percentage and correct his ERA, the aspect of Moore's early returns I find most intriguing is that he's inducing many more ground balls than previously in his career. Factor in that the Pizza Cutter-determined ground ball baselines are fairly quick to stabilize and this is something that definitely heeds attention.

It's important to note that Moore has had one fewer start than the three pitchers discussed above, so he's only halfway to the stabilization point. The main benefit if Moore continues to "burns more worms" is a lower home run rate, though his WHIP should edge up since grounders tend to be hits more often than fly balls.

Somewhat disconcerting, though, is that, at least early on, Moore has not addressed his issue regarding walks. That category doesn't stabilize for quite some time, so he still could turn that around. But it sure would have been more comforting to see better control from Moore to open the season. His control is definitely worth monitoring over the coming weeks and months.

While not to the same extent of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, there is a residual populace of Moore fans that like chasing the hot prospect, so if I could find someone to deal me a proven second tier starter, I'd sell high. Otherwise … Verdict: Hold to get a better handle on Moore's ground ball and walk rates.


[h=4]Ross Detwiler, Washington Nationals (81 BF, 20 IP)[/h]

	ERA	xFIP	BIP	LOB%	K/9	BB/9	GB%	LD%	FB%	Pop%	HR/9	HR/FB
'13	0.90	3.93	.250	92.2	5.0	1.4	53.8	18.5	27.7	5.7	0.45	5.6
Car	3.58	4.41	.280	71.6	5.5	3.1	47.2	20.1	32.7	7.5	0.78	8.4

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The primary reason for including Detwiler here is because he was a favorite of the high-stakes crowd and was on quite a few sleeper lists, so there could be some owners who missed out at the draft who are willing to deal for Detwiler now.

To be honest, you don't need to know when skills stabilize to conclude that Detwiler's early success is a result of a ridiculously high LOB percentage in concert with permitting a scant few baserunners. By means of reminder, LOB% measures the percentage of allowed baserunners to score. A solid bullpen can help buoy LOB%.

If you own Detwiler, there could be a market for him, as some might believe this is a bit of an "I told you so" scenario and want to acquire a favorite they missed out on at the draft, not realizing or perhaps even caring that he has been quite fortunate in the early part of the 2013 campaign. Verdict: Sell high.


[h=4]Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians (108 BF, 27 IP)[/h]

	ERA	xFIP	BIP	LOB%	K/9	BB/9	GB%	LD%	FB%	Pop%	HR/9	HR/FB
'13	1.67	3.38	.292	84.4	8.3	3.0	57.7	15.5	26.8	10.5	0.00	0.0
Car	4.09	4.18	.305	70.4	7.0	3.6	56.1	17.3	26.6	6.7	0.69	9.6

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On the surface, Masterson's analysis is straightforward and incorporates elements of the previous examples. Like Detwiler, his LOB% should regress. Like Lester, the home runs are coming. Like Maholm, his strikeout rate has spiked, and I would like a reason for that.

Anyone who has followed Masterson closely over the years realizes by now that how he fares against left-handed hitters dictates his success. So in order for me to really trust a change in baseline, I'd like to see an improvement against lefties. The thing is, at least thus far, Masterson's improved skills seem to mostly as a result of an even greater dominance against right-handed batters.

As such, I definitely want to wait and see what occurs over the next 50 batters faced, just to see if this maintains. I'd be a lot more comfortable if Masterson's new baseline were more a result of a major improvement against lefties, so therefore I am going to … Verdict: Hold, though if someone believes this is real, I wouldn't hesitate to sell high.


[h=3]Quick hits[/h]
Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals: His 8.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 rates are both better than league average, but the rookie lacks a baseline from which to compare. His .217 BABIP is sure to regress. If you can find someone willing to deal a pitcher with a more stable track record, I would … Verdict: Sell high.


Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox: Buchholz's pedigree hinted that more strikeouts were coming, and they're finally here. But are they here to stay? Pizza Cutter's data suggests he's well on the way there, so I'm pretty confident in saying he'll set a new K/9 baseline, higher than his career 6.8 mark though not to the 8.7 level it presently sits at. Buchholz's strike percentage is at his career average. His velocity and pitch distribution are normal. He is not inducing more swinging strikes than previously. The increase in whiffs is solely due to a marked increase in called strikes, as if Buchholz is either fooling more hitters or perhaps keeping them off-balance. Intuitively, this is not something I expect him to sustain throughout the season. So while I do expect an increase in strikeouts, I'd be willing to sell high if the offer helped my team in other areas. On the other hand, if his present owner was looking to take his profit and run, I'd at least inquire about trading for him and could possibly buy high.

Travis Wood, Chicago Cubs: Wood's K/9 and BB/9 rates are both worse than his career marks. So why so much success? He somehow has managed to not allow a homer in his initial 19 2/3 innings. This will change. Verdict: Sell Mortimer, sell!

Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers: Like Wood, Sanchez hasn't surrendered a home run yet this season. However, his other peripherals are in line with his career marks. If I own Sanchez, I hold. If his owner is looking to cash in his chips, I might buy high, depending on the cost.

 

[HacheMan]

The Wandy Line for 2013

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

According to Wikipedia, so it must be true, when Wandy Rodriguez was scouted by the Houston Astros in 1998, he falsely stated his name was Eny Cabreja. I can buy a fan of the Astros wanting a fake identity these days but I'm surprised a player would do it. But apparently, Wandy wanted to appear younger, so he convinced the real Eny (two years younger) to let him borrow his identity and lived under the name Eny Cabreja until 2002, when he admitted he was really 23-year-old Wandy Rodriguez, not the 21-year-old Eny.

Wandy, or as I like to call him, Way-Rod, has long been a favorite of mine for no real reason other than I've always sort of liked him. He's good -- not great -- but always seems to be on the cusp of taking it to the next level without ever quite getting there. Owner of a career 3.99 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, he was better back in 2010, when I first came up with the concept of the "Wandy Line," than he has been the past couple of seasons; in that year, he had a 3.60 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and a K/9 better than 8. Those stats were the dividing line between pitchers you need to have on your roster at all times and guys that you could throw back in order to pick up a hitter or another pitcher for the day. And so, even though Wandy is well below his own line these days -- even after a solid start to the year -- the name has stuck, mostly because I am a slave to tradition, and it flows better than "The Eny Line."

The line itself is constantly shifting in response to the quality of pitching in the league, but we're now far enough into the season that we have gained a little bit of perspective, can draw the line in the sand and sort the starting pitchers currently above or below this line.

Why is this important? Because of one oft-overlooked, not-even-scored-in-roto statistical category.

At-bats.

Over the past five seasons, the typical ESPN 10-team standard rotisserie league-winning team has consistently led its league in at-bats.

We're more impressed by big homers and big RBI totals, and they matter: Winning teams averaged 8.48 points from RBIs and 8.09 from home runs. Stolen bases are sought at the expense of power, but they've been worth an average of 7.58 points to winning teams. As for batting average, it contributed the least, 7.06 points to a winning team.

Runs are often overlooked. Yet winning teams earned an average of 8.85 points from runs scored, more than in any other hitting category. They aren't sexy, they aren't a big part of highlights, they're always the last to be invited to the party when stats gets together to throw a few down. When runs leave the bar, there are no paparazzi hanging out trying to take their picture, no one from TMZ is asking runs about who they were seen canoodling with in the corner. But make no mistake, runs is where it's at.

Runs are a product of good baseball. You get at-bats and you get on base? You're going to score some runs, along with helping in the other categories, because the more at-bats you get, the more opportunity you have to get a hit, drive in a run, crank one out of the park or swipe a base. And while you can get multiple RBIs or even multiple steals from one plate appearance, you can only ever score one run at a time. That is also true for home runs, of course, but not every batter is a home run hitter. But every batter is a potential run scorer. So by making sure you get as many at-bats as possible, you're giving yourself the most chances that something good is going to happen. And if you take an 0-for-5 that day? So be it. Because not only is batting average is the least important offensive category to winning teams, but the typical winning team's batting average had declined in three consecutive seasons since 2008 (.283, .281 in 2009, .277 in 2010, .274 in 2011) before rebounding to .275 last season.

Incidentally, the pitching category that winning teams averaged the most points in? Strikeouts. Because winning teams maximize their number of games started and supplement them with high-quality relievers who can contribute a couple of strikeouts per appearance along with the occasional vulture win or save while keeping your ERA or WHIP down.

Look, I'm not guaranteeing that if you accumulate the most at-bats and innings pitched, you will win your league, but I do promise you that you'll be in the mix at the end of the year. And in the last week of April? That's all you can ask for.

So how do you go about maximizing innings and at-bats? That's what the "Wandy Line" is all about.

This is the third annual edition of the Wandy Line, and while the names change, the strategy does not. And for the new kids in class, while the Wandy Line was created for ESPN standard 10-team leagues, it can easily be adjusted for any 8-, 10- or 12-team mixed league where there is a significant free-agent pool and bench spots are limited.

Now, in ESPN standard leagues, everyone has a 200-start limit. We'll talk about maximizing those 200 starts in a second, but since we all have the same limit, the place to gain an advantage is in every stat you can get without using up one of those 200 starts; there are no limits on how many at-bats you can accumulate or how many innings you can pitch, only on starts.

Based on ADP, the average ESPN standard league team is composed of six starters and three closers. Makes sense; if they average 32 starts each, six starters will get you 192 starts, and with 30 teams in the league, there's ostensibly 30 closers, or three per team. We know that's not exactly true, but the averages still work out that way.


But how efficient is it to carry six starters, really? Think of it this way: for four out of every five games, your starting pitchers are not earning you anything. You are getting a zero from six roster slots, 80 percent of the time. Nada. Zip. Zilch. 100 percent less than the whole enchilada. That roster spot is just gold-bricking it, instead of working for you. And considering you get only three bench slots in ESPN standard leagues, every spot is really, really valuable.

Now, obviously, there are some pitchers who are so good, so elite, so consistent that they are worth burning that empty slot for four-day stretches. Those pitchers are considered to be ATWL, or "Above the Wandy Line." There's a secret handshake and everyone comes to exclusive parties where there's an inordinate amount of people with goatees; there always seem to be an excess of those types at parties, often in white jackets. It's weird. But I digress.

The point is, there are elite pitchers you hang onto no matter what. But everyone else is expendable. Replaceable. Dispensable.

Ideally, every single day your starting lineup has a hitter in all 13 active offensive spots, whatever starting pitchers you have actually starting that day are active and the rest of your slots are occupied by a bunch of relievers; either closers or high-upside setup guys who get strikeouts and pitch those high-leverage innings in which they can vulture a win. Heath Bell (2.5 percent owned), for example, already has two wins, a save and 14 strikeouts in eight innings. You know who doesn't have two wins or 14 strikeouts yet? Ross Detwiler (80.4 percent owned) and Brandon McCarthy (23 percent owned). But I digress.

Now, to be able to pick up these relievers, we need roster spots. And to get roster spots, we get rid of any starting pitcher who isn't above the Wandy Line (or in Lincecum Limbo, which we'll explain in a bit) or starting that day. Your three bench spots should be occupied only by ATWL pitchers who aren't starting, or hitters who aren't playing but who you can't throw back. As for the pitching slots, better to have a middle guy who at least has a chance to pitch and contribute. There will be days when those guys don't get in the game, but at least they have a shot. And on those days that they do, those additional strikeouts and quality innings will add up.

So on any given day, your active pitchers are one of three types of players:
• A pitcher who is actually starting that day with a good matchup.
• A closer or a good middle reliever who ideally gets strikeouts.
• A starter who is ATWL or in Lincecum Limbo but who you couldn't bench because you needed those bench slots for hitters who aren't starting and whose slot you gave to a pickup.

That's it. If he's a starter who is not above the Wandy Line and is not going today and there's someone on the waiver wire that you could put into your starting lineup that day, then kiss that player goodbye. Doesn't always have to be a starter that you pick up. In fact, with only 200 starts, it shouldn't be a starter a lot of the time. It should be an offensive player to patch up your lineup, or a reliever.

So where is the Wandy Line? Last year, to earn 7 points, you needed an ERA of 3.61 and a WHIP of 1.22, while 1,372 strikeouts would get you roughly 8.5 points. Divide those strikeouts by 200, that's 6.85 strikeouts per start (which is not the same as K/9, let's be clear), which sounds right to me. Let's shoot for at least six strikeouts a game and anything we get from relief will make up the difference.

Using those baselines -- 3.61 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and at least six strikeouts -- I looked at every start from last year in which pitchers went at least seven innings while getting at least six strikeouts but giving up two or fewer runs and eight or fewer baserunners. Guess how many pitchers managed to reach those three thresholds at least 10 times last season, regardless of whether they won?

There were 28 pitchers last year to do that. That's it. Many of them the names you expect; Justin Verlander (19) and Clayton Kershaw (18) leading the way. Felix Hernandez had 15 such starts, Stephen Strasburg, R.A. Dickey and Max Scherzer had 14 and the members of the "13 times" club were David Price, Cole Hamels and Yovani Gallardo. Matt Cain, Jeff Samardzija, Mat Latos, Jake Peavy and Ryan Dempster, believe it or not, had 12 such starts. Madison Bumgarner, Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez, Zack Greinke, Josh Johnson, Ian Kennedy and Cliff Lee all had 11 and the guys with 10 starts last year meeting the criteria were Adam Wainwright, James Shields, CC Sabathia, Chris Sale, Yu Darvish, Bud Norris and, bet you wouldn't have guessed it, Joe Blanton.
The point is that it's fewer guys than you think who get those numbers very consistently. And so, it is with those benchmarks in mind -- along with each pitcher's run support, home park, bullpen and career track record -- that I present to you this year's Wandy Line.

These pitchers are above the line. They're the guys you should start no matter what and never drop, even though some of them are off to slow starts. It's too early to bail.

Justin Verlander
• Clayton Kershaw
• Stephen Strasburg
• Felix Hernandez
• Yu Darvish
• Adam Wainwright
• David Price
• Matt Cain
• Cole Hamels
• Gio Gonzalez
• Madison Bumgarner
• R.A. Dickey
• Chris Sale
• Max Scherzer
• Ian Kennedy
• Doug Fister
• Mat Latos
• Matt Moore
• James Shields
• Ian Kennedy
• Jon Lester
• Kris Medlen
• Jordan Zimmermann
•Matt Harvey
• Paul Maholm
• Clay Buchholz
• Hisashi Iwakuma
• Alex Cobb
• Jeff Samardzija
• Jake Peavy.
That's it. That's my current list of players who I am not dropping and who I am also starting no matter what every time they are up in the rotation.

Now, last year I added a new category: Lincecum Limbo. So named because of Tim Lincecum's early-season struggles. You didn't want to just drop him; he's Tim Lincecum, for Pete's sake, and last year at this time, that still meant something. But you also didn't feel comfortable starting him every time out. So the "Lincecum Limbo" list is comprised of either established studs who have performed worse than expected this year or have some sort of injury issue and will be dropped below the Wandy Line if those concerns aren't addressed; or they are up-and-comers who have been terrific this year and could be put permanently above the line but, due to a lack of track record, we are holding on to and taking a "wait and see" approach.

Injured guys include, but aren't limited to, Jered Weaver, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto and Jhoulys Chacin. The good-but-not-this-good guys include Justin Masterson, Anibal Sanchez, Mike Minor, Andy Pettitte, Patrick Corbin, A.J. Burnett, Ervin Santana, Homer Bailey and Hiroki Kuroda. Roy Halladay, Brandon Morrow, Yovani Gallardo and CC Sabathia are all ace-caliber guys who have to prove that they're still at this level before I trust them again.
That's it. If they are not on one of these two lists, then it's not a player I would keep on days they aren't starting. I'd have no problem dropping them, and if someone else gets them, so be it. The list is constantly updated and if you think there's a pitcher I forgot, ask away, either on Twitter or on Facebook and I'll try to answer.
Long live Eny Cabreja!

 

[HacheMan]

Catcher ranks: Where's Carlos Ruiz fit in?

Eric Karabell
Philadelphia Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz smacked a three-run home run and walked twice for Class A Clearwater on Wednesday night, a reminder that his season-opening suspension is nearing its end and fantasy owners will soon enjoy another productive player. Ruiz wasn't among the top-10 catchers in ESPN average live drafts nor should he have been, considering he was forced to miss the first 25 games for testing positive for a banned drug. However, when he plays for the Phillies on Sunday, it's worth remembering he finished the 2012 season as fantasy's No. 4 catcher, hitting .325 with 16 home runs.
The only three catchers who topped Ruiz in fantasy last year were Buster Posey, Yadier Molina and Joe Mauer, and they came off the draft board in that precise order in most drafts, and in the first six rounds. It's worth noting that Ruiz, even had he not broken the rules, would not have been ranked next, but he would have been in my top 10, with similar value to Salvador Perez and Jonathan Lucroy, two fellows I've been defending for their slow starts. The point is, from Sunday onward, Ruiz doesn't have that proverbial strike against him. He could play as many games as any other catcher the final five months, and while some batting average regression seems warranted, he should produce.


<OFFER>In ESPN standard mixed leagues, in which only one catcher is needed per team, it's not a bad idea to stream options unless you own one of the obvious stars at the position. Despite his 2012 campaign, Ruiz isn't in that class, but there seems little momentum in his current ownership. He's at 5.5 percent owned, barely top 20 among backstops. He's better than that, and I suspect myriad Miguel Montero, Jesus Montero, Ryan Doumit and Perez owners are ready to move on. In shallow leagues, there's almost no need to worry about dropping a second-tier catcher and having it cost you later; streaming the hot option is wise.</OFFER>

It's only a bit more than three weeks, but with numerous power surprises at this position, I figured I'd re-rank catchers to see where Ruiz falls from this point forward, because really, it doesn't matter what New York Mets catcher John Buck has done already, but what he will do. The statistics are already in the bank. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Mr. Buck will not remain the top catcher on the Player Rater much longer. OK, so I suspect many would agree, but is he top 10? Let's see. Here are my catcher rankings as if I were drafting today:

1. Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants: Off to a rough start -- he's behind Francisco Cervelli on the Player Rater -- but he's still the best. That said, he's not a top-20 fantasy option in my book a month ago, and he wouldn't be now.

2. Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals: Still no change. He'll hit .300 with 20 homers again, and remember he even steals bases.

3. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins: Batting title No. 4 wouldn't be a shock. Owning this guy gives a team flexibility to deal with the Mark Reynolds/Pedro Alvarez types.

4. Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians: I remain a big fan, and while he might drop 100 batting average points off his current mark, considering all the walks he draws, he really should hit better than .250.

5. Mike Napoli, Boston Red Sox: I'm moving him up, because he looks healthy and there is a constant flow of men on base for him to knock in. No catcher hit 30 homers and had 100 RBIs in 2012, but a healthy Napoli should make a run at it. By the way, for those in keeper formats, it's unlikely he will qualify at catcher for 2014.

6. Wilin Rosario, Colorado Rockies: Hard to argue with placing this guy fourth at the position. He shouldn't have been able to hit .270 with his lack of plate discipline, but he did it, and he's currently at .302, with power and three stolen bases.

7. Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles: Just a slow start in the batting average department, but people treat him as if he's so much better than Santana and will only get better. I think last year is what he is, which is still fine. By the way, this is the last catcher that should be owned in 100 percent of leagues.

8. Miguel Montero, Arizona Diamondbacks: Tough start, but he's drawing walks and he's far better than a .194 hitter. I'm not giving up, but I admit I would cut him for a hotter player.

9. Jonathan Lucroy, Milwaukee Brewers: Clearly I'm more a fan than most, but he hit .320 with 12 home runs in only 96 games last year. He's getting better. The Brewers see it; they've been hitting him cleanup.

10. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies: I say he hits .300 with double-digit home runs, enough to earn this spot from here on out. Plus, watch him bat fifth for Philly, with Michael Young moving to second or third. When Ruiz hits next week, he'll be on ESPN's most-added list quickly.

11. Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals: He's not going to hit near that .300 mark many projected him to if he's getting just one walk per month.

12. A.J. Pierzynski, Texas Rangers: The "old guy" should hit for average and reach 20 home runs.

13. J.P. Arencibia, Toronto Blue Jays: Seems to be hitting a homer per day, and a final tally of 30 is hardly outrageous. He also has walked twice versus an unfathomable 31 strikeouts. Watch him hit about .210 this year.

14. Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers: His awful start could be related to knee woes, but he's still capable of hitting .300 in any month and will knock in runs. Don't bet on more than 12 home runs, though.

15. Jesus Montero, Seattle Mariners: Believe it or not, there's actual risk he gets sent back to the minors. But in multi-catcher formats, you can't punt him.

16. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves: Hitting 20 home runs for five consecutive seasons should count for something. He should start playing regularly in two weeks, and doesn't figure to be in a platoon.

17. John Buck, Mets: While I'm skeptical his 2013 resurgence is a result of an adjusted swing -- he hit just .192 last year -- we should give him credit for this hot start. Buck won't be pushed by prospect Travis d'Arnaud (broken foot) until August, but it doesn't change the batting-average risk. Hope for .250 with 20 homers.

18. Ryan Doumit, Minnesota Twins: Terrible start, but he still has a pretty decent track record. Consider him an underrated option.

19. Evan Gattis, Braves: It just seems a bit unlikely that he'll play a lot when McCann returns, but even if he did, there's still no track record here, and his 53 percent fly ball rate is unsustainable (Arencibia's is 58 percent!). Sorry, this is not the NL Rookie of the Year.

20. John Jaso, Oakland Athletics: This patient hitter occasionally leads off, which helps him score runs, and he's relatively batting average-safe.

 

[HacheMan]

Bits: Is Alex Cobb the real deal?

Eric Karabell

Not all strikeout rates translate from the minor leagues to the majors, but in the case of Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Alex Cobb, who was successful in 2012 but hardly outstanding, it seemed like the best was still yet to come. It's why I paid particular attention to Cobb's strikeout rate in spring training and ultimately landed him on a few of my teams, as the Rays were raving about him and let's face it, that organization has proved to know a thing or two about pitching, even when it's not rejuvenating older players.

<OFFER></OFFER>Cobb posted enticing strikeout rates through the minor leagues, with more than a K per inning from 2010-12, and while his 2012 mark with the big club was modest, I was willing to take the chance in the later rounds of drafts on someone outside the top 60 starters in ESPN ADP. So far, so good as Cobb shut out the New York Yankees for 8 1/3 innings Wednesday, permitting only three singles and one walk while striking out seven. He's 3-1 with a 1.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, and it all looks legit. Cobb pounded the strike zone all night, throwing 72 of 106 pitches for strikes, and even though the Yankees lineup is a shell of what it normally is, the performance was impressive. Cobb was able to locate his fastball all night, while also inducing 11 ground-ball outs.


I owned Cobb on a few teams last year and recall being impressed with how he responded from a terrible mid-August outing against the Los Angeles Trouts when he was lit up for 12 hits and eight runs over 2 2/3 innings. That got him dropped by many fantasy owners, but the wise move was to be patient. After all, Cobb started August with three consecutive outings of seven innings and one run allowed. After the Angels thrashing, he tossed a four-hit shutout of the Oakland Athletics, whiffing eight. One could see a pitcher on the rise still figuring things out. This spring that pitcher struck out 28 in 25 2/3 innings, securing a rotation spot over hyped youngsters such as Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi. They'll have to keep waiting.

So far in April, Cobb has fanned only 22 hitters in 29 2/3 innings, so he's not exactly Clayton Kershaw, but growth remains. He's already 100 percent owned in ESPN standard mixed formats, but I'm still buying. A year ago, Rays lefty Matt Moore was one of my big sleeper picks, which didn't work out, but now he looks dominant. Trust the Rays. I've got them winning the World Series, and with David Price, Moore, Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson and let's face it, the useful Roberto Hernandez (25 strikeouts in 24 2/3 innings), it's hardly outrageous. Now, if they'd just call up their franchise right fielder, maybe they could provide a little support for these guys!

Box score bits (AL): One of my annual faves is Oakland Athletics lefty Brett Anderson, but I wouldn't use him for his next outing. Anderson cruised through three innings at Fenway Park Wednesday, but then that ended and he was ripped for six runs over four innings. Anderson was no sure thing to start after leaving his previous start with a sprained ankle, and he hurt his thumb a few starts earlier. Durable he is not. Add right-hander Dan Straily now in case he's summoned to replace a disabled Anderson. … Houston Astros outfielder Robbie Grossman doubled twice in his big league debut while leading off. He's a patient hitter with potential to help deep-league owners in runs and steals. … Astros corner infielder Brandon Laird homered, doubled twice and knocked in four. A right-handed hitter, there's not much to see here for fantasy, but use him to spot start against lefties like Seattle's Joe Saunders, who was awful Wednesday. … Astros right-hander Lucas Harrell was obliterated for eight runs in his second outing of the season, but including his seven innings of one-run ball Wednesday, he has permitted five runs in the other four starts. Harrell is useful in AL-only formats. … Detroit Tigers right-hander Jose Valverde, in the low minors when the week began, now has only one fewer save than the recognized closers on the Astros, Mets, Angels and Marlins. He'll finish 2013 with more than 25 saves. … Angels center fielder Peter Bourjos is hitting .317 in 63 at-bats. The return of shortstop Erick Aybar (heel) this weekend affects his batting slot, but contrary to popular opinion probably not his production or value. Leading off, Bourjos is hitting .316. Batting ninth he's at .318, and he still hasn't tried to steal a base anywhere.

Box score bits (NL): Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Ted Lilly tossed five effective innings at Citi Field in his season debut, allowing one run and striking out seven. Lilly isn't a standard league must-add, but he rarely pitches poorly. … Outfielder Julio Borbon made his first start for the Chicago Cubs, a week after the Texas Rangers let him go, and doubled in three at-bats. Borbon isn't expected to see much playing time, but there is stolen base upside if Alfonso Soriano or David DeJesus gets hurt, or dealt. … J.J. Putz owners are panicking after he blew his third save of the season Tuesday and wasn't summoned to close Wednesday's game, but he's still the closer. Setup man David Hernandez, not exactly thriving himself, blew the save but got the win. Don't add lefty Matt Reynolds, despite saves the past two days. They're probably his last ones. … Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez continues to improve, with four home runs in his past five starts. On Wednesday, he even homered off a left-handed pitcher! … Speaking of going yard off a lefty, Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard did as well. Incredibly, Howard hadn't homered on an 0-2 pitch since 2008. Anyway, Howard owners have been and should be patient (he remains 100 percent owned), as April is historically by far his worst slugging month.

 

[HacheMan]

Rondon profile; top 10 prospects

By Jim Callis | Baseball America

It's rare for a viable World Series contender to even consider using a rookie as its closer, but the Detroit Tigers did just that entering spring training. After Jose Valverde blew up in the playoffs for the second straight year, the Tigers cut him loose and cast their lot with young Bruce Rondon.

Rondon originally tried out for teams as a catcher before signing with the Tigers out of Venezuela in 2007. In many ways, he's reminiscent of Valverde, as Rondon is huge (6-foot-3, 275 pounds) and relies heavily on his fastball. He introduced himself to a national audience by hitting 102 mph with his first pitch at the 2012 Futures Game, has topped out at 103 mph and usually ranges from 97-100. His heater has good arm-side run, eliciting both swings and misses and broken bats.


<OFFER>Rondon also throws a mid-80s slider and an upper-80s changeup, though neither is very consistent. His control and command also need work, as he has averaged 5.0 walks per nine (along with 9.8 K/9) in the minors.</OFFER>

He had difficulty harnessing his pitches in big league camp, allowing nine walks and 17 hits in 12 1/3 innings, which not only cost him Detroit's closer job but also resulted in a trip to Triple-A Toledo to begin the season. But Rondon responded with seven scoreless outings and did a better job locating his pitches with the Mud Hens, earning him a call-up Tuesday when Octavio Dotel was placed on the disabled list because of a sore elbow.

The Tigers sport the worst bullpen ERA (4.86) in the American League and don't have a pitcher with more than one save. Even with Valverde back with the team, the opportunity is still there for someone to seize the closer role and run with it. Don't count on Rondon to do so, however.

In his major league debut Thursday, Rondon came on in the eighth inning against the Royals and allowed three hits and the game-tying run. The Tigers went on to lose in extra innings. Rondon certainly can light up the radar gun -- he averaged 98.8 mph with his fastball Thursday -- but until he gets better control and command, he won't (and shouldn't) be trusted to finish games for the Tigers. Valverde isn't a good bet for long-term success, but the Tigers do have other options (Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke, Al Alburquerque, Drew Smyly) who are more reliable than Rondon.

Here are the updated top 10 fantasy prospects for 2013:


[h=3]1. Wil Myers, OF Tampa Bay Rays (Last week's rank: 1)[/h]
Season totals: .338/.440/.515, 2 HR, 14 RBIs, 1 SB in 18 games at Triple-A Durham.
Update: Myers missed a game after bruising his right foot a week ago but returned with a vengeance, going on an 8-for-18 tear and hitting his first two homers of the season. He has reached base in all 18 games this season.
What he can do: He does have 22 strikeouts in 68 Triple-A at-bats, but his plus-plus power is exactly what the Rays' punchless offense needs.

[h=3]2. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies (Last week's rank: 5)[/h]Season totals: .387/.414/.710, 3 HR, 21 RBIs in 17 games at Triple-A Colorado Springs.
Update: The only thing to stop Arenado this season has been the weather; cold temperatures forced the cancellation of three of his games in the past week. The Rockies placed Todd Helton on the disabled list because of a strained left forearm, but opted not to call up Arenado until they could guarantee him regular playing time.
What he can do: Arenado will hit for a higher average and more power than Colorado's starter at third base, Chris Nelson. If the Rockies continue to contend, there's no reason not to make the switch to Arenado.


[h=3]3. Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians (Last week's rank: 7)[/h]Season totals: 1-0, 2.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 24 K's in 18 IP (three starts) at Triple-A Columbus.
Update: Bauer walked seven in five innings in his season-opening start in the big leagues, but he has done a much better job throwing strikes and attacking hitters at Triple-A. Not including Justin Masterson, Indians starters have combined to go 1-10 with a 7.41 ERA, and Brett Myers has gone on the disabled list because of a strained forearm.
What he can do: Cleveland is giving Corey Kluber the first shot at Myers' spot in the rotation, but their best short- and long-term option is Bauer. The Indians have designs on contending, and that will be harder to do with Bauer at Triple-A.


[h=3]4. Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers (Last week's rank: 2)[/h]Season totals: .207/.343/.362, 2 HR, 11 RBIs, 3 SB in 16 games at Triple-A Round Rock.
Update: After falling a double short of the cycle on April 16, Profar has fallen into a 3-for-26 slump. He's still making consistent contact (just four strikeouts during that span), and the Rangers continue to get little production from their first basemen and outfielders.
What he can do: Profar would give Texas a definite lineup upgrade if Ian Kinsler would move off second base. But when that would happen is uncertain.

[h=3]5. Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: 3)[/h]Season totals: .263/.300/.351, 1 HR, 6 RBIs, 3 SB in 15 games at Triple-A Memphis.
Update: Taveras has yet to heat up, turning in consecutive hitless games for the second straight week and producing just four singles and a walk in five contests. He's still the best hitting prospect in the minor leagues, and he continues to get the job done in center field. What he can do: Jon Jay is off to an even slower start in St. Louis, but Taveras isn't going to get a big league opportunity unless Jay, Matt Holliday or Carlos Beltran goes down with an injury.

[h=3]6. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: 4)[/h]Season totals: .211/.291/.296, 0 HR, 4 RBIs, 14 SB in 19 games at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: Baseball's most dangerous baserunner swiped five bases last week to move into second place in the minors with 14 overall. But he also reached base just eight times in six games and hasn't hit Triple-A pitching with any authority.
What he can do: Hamilton's bat isn't ready, but he still could help the Reds. He'd be the best center fielder on their roster and the likely National League stolen base champ if they promoted him today.


[h=3]7. Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Last week's rank: 6)[/h]Season totals: 1-1 record, 2.76 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 14 K's in 16 1/3 IP (four starts) at Triple-A Indianapolis.
Update: Cole ran afoul of the Pirates' minor league limit of 30 pitches in any inning again on Sunday, the third time in four starts that his outing has been truncated. He has the best pure stuff in the minors but still is figuring out how to locate his pitches where he wants.
What he can do: The Pirates are just a half-game out in the NL Central despite getting nothing from Jonathan Sanchez (0-2, 11.22 in three starts). Cole could make major contributions to a Pittsburgh playoff push, at least once he improves his command.


[h=3]8. Allen Webster, SP, Boston Red Sox (Last week: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: 0-0 record, 0.90 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12 K's in 10 IP (two starts) at Triple-A Pawtucket.
Update: Webster made his big league debut in an emergency start against the Royals. He impressed with his poise and his power sinker, even if he did allow a pair of solo homers and a third unearned run in a six-inning no-decision. He averaged 94.5 mph with his fastball and got outs with his slider and changeup.
What he can do: The Red Sox have tired of Alfredo Aceves, so if John Lackey falters following his return from the disabled list, Webster is the obvious candidate to replace him. With a solid offense behind him, Webster should be in position to earn more wins than most rookies.


[h=3]9. Kyle Gibson, SP, Minnesota Twins (Last week's rank: 10)[/h]
Season totals: 0-3 record, 4.43 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 19 K's in 20 1/3 IP (four starts) at Triple-A Rochester.
Update: Twins GM Terry Ryan was on hand for Gibson's last outing on Sunday, when he allowed three runs in five innings. Though Gibson wasn't his sharpest, Ryan told the St. Paul Pioneer Press he was encouraged by what he saw.
What he can do: Ryan may see a lot more of Gibson soon, as Minnesota starters rank last in the majors in innings (94) and strikeouts (49) and 25th in ERA (5.15). Once Gibson refines his command a bit, his sinker-slider mix should make him the Twins' best starter.


[h=3]10. Nick Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers (Last week: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: .244/.309/.407, 2 HR, 9 RBIs, 1 SB in 22 games at Triple-A Toledo.
Update: The 44th overall pick in the 2010 draft, Castellanos signed for a supplemental first-round record $3.45 million. He led the low Class A Midwest League with 158 hits in his first full pro season, then won the Futures Game MVP award and reached Double-A at age 20 last year. One of the best pure hitters in the minors, he's the second-youngest regular in the Triple-A International League, and he hit his first two homers of the year on Tuesday and Wednesday.
What he can do: The Tigers are getting little out of a left field platoon of Andy Dirks and Matt Tuiasosopo. Detroit isn't afraid to be aggressive with prospects, and Castellanos will give them a more productive option once he completes his transition from third base. He projects to hit for a high average with solid power.

Dropped out (with last week's rank): Alex Castellanos, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (9).
Called up (last week's rank): Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals (8).

 

[HacheMan]

Young could be cheap source of steals

Eric Karabell


Colorado Rockies first baseman Todd Helton hit the disabled list Thursday with a wrist injury, and while this is no longer a big deal in fantasy because he's not productive and is owned in less than 1 percent of ESPN standard mixed leagues, I'm a bit surprised the player most likely to benefit is no more popular. The Rockies have been using Eric Young Jr. to lead off recently and he's been up to the task, and for those needing stolen base aid, the best is surely yet to come.


Young, 27 and in his fifth big league season, has disappointed fantasy owners before, even when he was given opportunity to seize a regular role, so let's be a bit careful in setting expectations too high. Young's issues over the years have been numerous, from struggling to hit, to struggling to defend (he's no longer a regular option at second base), to struggling to stay healthy. Of course, he's always been able to run. Young stole 27 bases in 31 attempts in only 77 games in 2011, and last year he hit .316 with 14 steals in fewer than 200 at-bats.

The switch-hitting Young has been used in combination with the scorching Dexter Fowler at the top of the lineup and he's hitting .297 with a few stolen bases. On Thursday night he singled, doubled and scored a run, but most importantly he's playing. Last season when Young finally got a chance to play regularly in August he took major advantage, batting .406 with three home runs, three stolen bases and 13 runs scored in 18 games, until an oblique strain ended his season. Still, the Rockies seem interested in seeing what he can do, because he's probably running out of time to prove it. The team could have promoted Tyler Colvin, who hit .290 with 18 home runs for them last season, from Triple-A Colorado Springs, but the likely arrangement will be outfielder Michael Cuddyer handling first base regularly and Young in right field.
<OFFER></OFFER>

The reason to watch Young is for the opportunity he is getting to play, and the potential for stolen bases; he has 665 career at-bats over parts of five seasons and has swiped 64 bases. In addition, look at the team he plays for. Young possesses little power, but is a .310 hitter at Coors Field with 40 of his stolen bases, while he hits .215 on the road. I'd be comfortable using Young in home games initially in daily formats and see if he finally emerges, but also be wary that he's merely a utility player or fourth outfielder who can't handle the daily grind. That's possible, as well.

As for Helton, well, fantasy owners should simply thank him for his contributions over the years but not consider him unless it's an NL-only format, and even then, don't expect much.

Here are other players who, like Young, are owned in fewer than 5 percent of ESPN standard leagues, but feature some level of stolen base upside for those in deeper leagues.

Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle Mariners: He hit 19 home runs and stole 21 bases a year ago, and is expected to come off the DL from his shoulder injury early next week. He had already stolen three bases in nine games and should be more popular.

Rajai Davis, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: He's 5-for-5 in steals, and certainly seems to be playing enough to keep this up, especially with Emilio Bonifacio playing himself out of at-bats. Davis could pretty easily swipe 35 bases even as a part-timer.

Nate McLouth, OF, Baltimore Orioles: Laugh if you must, but he's leading off against right-handed pitching and running, with seven steals already. Plus, for those in OBP formats, he's drawn 14 walks, against eight strikeouts. He could steal 25 bases.

Will Venable, OF, San Diego Padres: Also a lineup fixture against right-handed pitching and generally ignored in fantasy for what he can't do (hit for average), he's averaged 26 stolen bases the past three seasons.

Eduardo Nunez, SS, New York Yankees: He's struggling to hit .200, but he has to play regularly with Derek Jeter out until after the All-Star break, and he stole 11 bases with the big club in only 38 games last year.

Stephen Lombardozzi, 2B/OF, Washington Nationals: Manager Davey Johnson told reporters Wednesday he intended to get Lombardozzi in the lineup more regularly, and there's upside for double-digit steals.

Brian Dozier, 2B, Minnesota Twins: Likewise, Dozier doesn't possess much offensive upside, but he can run enough to reach double-digit steals.

Gregor Blanco, OF, San Francisco Giants: He's playing, and a year ago he stole 26 bases, so he's shown the speed and aggressiveness. And if you don't like Blanco, his teammate Andres Torres is his platoon partner in left field, and he has a pair of stolen bases in the past week and stole 26 a few seasons ago.

Jordan Schafer, OF, Atlanta Braves: Jason Heyward shouldn't be out for more than a few weeks, but Schafer figures to get regular at-bats against right-handed pitching, and he did steal 27 bases in only 106 games last year.

Craig Gentry, OF, Texas Rangers: Doesn't provide anything for fantasy owners except steals, but he should get to 20, and if Leonys Martin doesn't hit, Gentry could play more.

 

[HacheMan]

Monday injury cheat sheet: April 29

Stephania Bell

Every Monday in this space, we'll provide updates on a variety of players to help you make your weekly lineup decisions. We'll specifically try to hit the players who are day-to-day, have just gone on the DL or are ready to return so that you can better decide whether you can count on them or not.
All projected return timelines should be considered fluid.
[h=3]Hitters[/h]
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies (DTD): The good news is that Tulowitzki's latest ailment does not appear to be serious; the better news is that his surgically repaired groin is doing just fine. The hot start to Tulowitzki's season has likely helped put to rest any lingering concerns about the injury that ended his 2012 campaign prematurely. Unfortunately, Sunday's game brought a different scare. Tulowitzki strained his left shoulder on an awkward slide in the third inning, forcing him out of the game. According to the Denver Post, the injury is being described as a strained rotator cuff. It appears he will only be sidelined for a couple of days to allow any inflammation and soreness to subside, and there are no plans to place him on the DL at this time.

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals (placed on DL 4/20, could return Friday): Zimmerman was placed on the DL with a strained left hamstring. While the injury was not considered serious, there are never any guarantees when it comes to these ailments. Zimmerman described it perfectly to the Washington Times: "Usually you can tell the difference between something that's bad and something that's not that bad, but with hamstrings you never know." What Zimmerman and the Nationals do know is that he has progressed well during his down time, performing running and hitting activities over the weekend. According to the Times, Zimmerman will play in rehab games Tuesday and Wednesday. If those outings are uneventful, he will rejoin the Nationals on Friday, when he is eligible to return. As is always the case with hamstrings, the only true measure of recovery is return to play without incident, but Zimmerman may be able to put that to the test soon.


Hanley Ramirez, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers (placed on DL 3/20, could return Tuesday): Ramirez injured his thumb playing in the final game of the World Baseball Classic and underwent surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament (yes, in his thumb). Credit the work the Dodgers had him do while in a modified cast -- including throwing -- with his quick recovery since the cast has come off. Ramirez regained his range of motion quickly, began hitting within days and progressed to throwing shortly afterward. He has already appeared in rehab games over the past weekend and has hit well. Granted, he's not facing major league pitchers yet, but the fact that he is ready to play both offense and defense will certainly have him beating the original target date of mid-May (eight weeks post-surgery). By how much will he beat it? The Dodgers aren't saying for sure, but April 30 is Ramirez bobblehead day at the park. Just sayin.'

Mark Ellis, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers (DTD): Ellis pulled up while running to first base Friday and it was determined later that he had strained his right quadriceps muscle. According to the Dodgers' official site, Ellis worried initially that it might be something more serious, but as he was able to jog on it, he recognized that it was not severe. He has already been able to swing a bat and throw the ball without any discomfort and is hopeful he can avoid a trip to the DL. Of course, the big issue with a quad strain is straight-ahead running, something Ellis has not yet tested at full speed. It appears he will be given some additional recovery time of a few days but if he remains relatively symptom-free and can increase his activity, he could potentially return by the end of the week.

Kevin Youkilis, 3B, New York Yankees (DTD): Last week, we said concern over Youkilis experiencing tightness in his lower back would be justified given his history. At the time, however, manager Joe Girardi downplayed it, saying he expected Youkilis back within a couple days. Well, those two days turned into a week and after a return on Saturday when he went 0-for-3, Youkilis was again experiencing stiffness the following day. He is scheduled for an MRI Monday. Concern is officially warranted. ESPN New York's Andrew Marchand notes how this could affect a timeline for Youkilis should he need a trip to the DL. Girardi acknowledged Sunday that all backs "can be tricky" and this situation with Youkilis reminds us that it is often the case with chronic low back pain, where "management" becomes the goal, as opposed to "cure." Right now the Yankees are in wait-and-see mode with their third baseman, but it appears the team will err on the side of caution. With Alex Rodriguez out until at least the All-Star break, it would be a significant blow to lose Youkilis for multiple weeks at a time.

Shane Victorino, OF, Boston Red Sox (DTD): The tricky back is in play with Victorino as well. What looked to originally be a one- to two-day affair has now extended past a week thanks to a flare-up, and may require a longer recovery. Victorino left the game early on April 20 with back spasms and after returning to action on April 22, was forced to leave the April 24 game early when the symptoms recurred. According to the Boston Globe, Victorino's improvement has only been "slight" in recent days, and with the team heading to the harsh turf of Toronto this week, his absence could be extended. It is not clear whether this will translate to a DL stint, but that does not seem to be ruled out. At the very least, it looks as if Victorino will rest a few more days before being tested in a game outing.

Neil Walker, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates (DTD): Those nasty spikes. Walker sustained a deep cut near the knuckle of his right index finger Friday while attempting to break up a double play, and he was forced out of the game. He received six stitches in what Walker described as "the deepest cut I've ever had for stitches," according to MLB.com. He was incredibly fortunate to escape without any damage to extensor tendons in the hand, which lie very close to the injury site. The team did not place Walker on the DL, in the hopes that he could return late this week. While he may not have the stitches out, if he can bend the finger enough to swing the bat effectively and throw accurately, he will return to the lineup. Walker is expected to test those skills Monday, and if all goes well, expect him to be back in the mix later this week.

Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle Mariners (placed on DL 4/11, could return Monday): Saunders has been recovering from a right AC sprain suffered when his shoulder encountered the outfield wall a few weeks ago. After returning to batting practice little more than a week post-injury, Saunders was able to gradually increase his throwing in subsequent days. He began a rehab assignment over the weekend, and the hope is that he will be activated Monday. As long as Saunders has shown he can make the necessary throws and bat effectively, there is no reason for lingering concerns regarding this injury. But it would probably be for the best if that right shoulder and the outfield wall can keep their distance for a bit.
Erick Aybar, SS, Los Angeles Angels (placed on DL 4/13, could return by midweek): Aybar was sent to the DL with a bruised left heel which was causing him trouble swinging the bat from the right side of the plate. He has since returned to running and hitting, all without incident thus far. Aybar has seen action in extended spring training games, but the Angels have opted to give him some more at-bats before returning him to the team. He will play in a Triple-A game Monday, but it's not yet clear whether this will be his final hurdle. The heel issue appears to be largely behind him; at least the extended rehab time allows him to test it in multiple situations. Aybar's return to the lineup is expected shortly, perhaps within the next couple days.

[h=3]Pitchers[/h]
Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers (DTD): The Detroit News reports Verlander said he developed "a little bit of a blister" on his right thumb near his fingernail, which was enough to bring him out of last Thursday's game after seven innings. Verlander shrugged off the notion that it would compromise his next start. Despite the thumb, Verlander had a decent outing, and there is no real indication for concern, particularly given that this is something he has contended with in the past. Blisters or other forms of skin breakdown can certainly threaten a pitcher's status, depending on the severity and location. This does not appear to be one of those times.


R.A. Dickey, SP, Toronto Blue Jays (DTD): Last week we heard about neck and back stiffness giving Dickey trouble, a decidedly vague qualification. It hasn't improved -- nor have Dickey's recent challenges on the mound -- and he is headed for an MRI to try to gain some additional information. Dickey has been pitching through consistent discomfort, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. There is no doubt that pain, tightness or stiffness in the neck will influence the function of the shoulder and potentially the entire upper arm. One question is whether it is an inhibition of arm strength due to pain or whether there is true weakness as a result of nerve compromise associated with the neck. More information should be forthcoming, but given the lack of improvement both subjectively in how he feels and objectively in how he's performed recently, don't be surprised if Dickey is headed for a more definitive absence.

Brett Anderson, SP, Oakland Athletics (DTD): Anderson sprained his right ankle on April 19, forcing him to leave a start after just one inning of work. It initially appeared as if it would be a non-issue since Anderson made his subsequent start. It was a rough outing, however, and he only lasted four innings. On Sunday, the team announced Anderson's Monday start would be skipped because of the ankle which, according to the San Francisco Chronicle, was aggravated during Wednesday's appearance. Although Anderson has indicated the ankle feels much better and he hopes to only miss the one start (his next outing would come Saturday this week), even subtle issues on a pitcher's landing leg can be enough to throw off his mechanics. With Anderson so recently removed from Tommy John surgery, there is no reason to press through an issue which should otherwise resolve quickly and risk greater consequences.

Josh Johnson, SP, Toronto Blue Jays (DTD): Sometimes players just know. After being scratched from his last start Friday due to triceps tightness and given his injury history, many were concerned as to what an MRI might show. Not Johnson. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported Johnson expected the MRI to come back clear. Turns out he was right. According to John Lott of the National Post, Johnson's MRI showed no ligament damage, only inflammation, and he is expected to resume his throwing program soon. While that program will likely be increased based on tolerance, it is too early to definitively say whether he will miss his next start, although it seems likely. Most importantly, on the scale of major injuries this does not appear to be a significant worry for Johnson.

 

[HacheMan]

Is it worth picking up Rockies' Arenado?

Eric Karabell

Fantasy owners generally can't avoid asking when this prospect and that prospect will finally get the chance to play in the majors, often presuming clear and immediate success for most, and the NL West-leading Colorado Rockies removed one such name from the board this past weekend by promoting third baseman Nolan Arenado to the big leagues. The move offers little risk and makes perfect sense for the Rockies, as incumbent Chris Nelson wasn't hitting (.600 OPS) and is better suited for utility infield duty, at best. Arenado was hitless in three at-bats -- though Arizona Diamondbacks center fielder Gerardo Parra stole a hit with a diving catch -- with a walk while batting seventh in his debut Sunday afternoon.

Arenado figures to play regularly and despite his top prospect status taking a significant hit last season, he really should hit enough to warrant consideration in all leagues. I generally want to rein in expectations for prospects, but Arenado is a polished hitter getting to play half his games in a wonderful hitter's paradise just like he had been at Triple-A. He's a right-hander hitter with modest and still growing power and enough plate discipline to hit for a high batting average, and the Rockies are scheduled to face left-handed starting pitchers in four of the next five games, perfect timing to promote him and get him off to a strong start. That all said, Arenado doesn't crash my top-15 third baseman party quite yet, but he just missed.
<OFFER></OFFER>

Look at the third basemen being mass-dropped in ESPN formats: People are giving up on Mike Moustakas, Kevin Youkilis, David Freese, Trevor Plouffe and Will Middlebrooks, among others, and while I'd practice a bit more patience with a few of them from a general sense, I can certainly see why this is happening. I understand parting with Youkilis, as he is injured yet again -- not a surprise -- and wasn't much of a draft-day investment anyway. Similarly, Plouffe has power but a critical flaw (he doesn't hit for a decent batting average). However, I still like Moustakas, Freese and Middlebrooks to bounce back, but are any of them going to provide considerably more value than the contact-providing Arenado? I really don't think so. Yes, I realize that struggling threesome hit 20, 20 and 15 home runs last season, respectively, but Arenado is certainly capable of doing the same.

Fantasy owners are always vying for that next big prospect, and while Arenado lost that top prospect status last season, I think he's good enough for adding in 10-team leagues. Again, a fantasy owner's situation often does not mirror a real team. If you've been relying on Chris Nelson, obviously you needed an upgrade. The pessimist will note that most Rockies hitting prospects perform well at Triple-A Colorado Springs, and it is indeed true; entering Sunday the Sky Sox as a team were hitting .306 with a .844 OPS, and their pitchers sported a 4.47 ERA. The Sox were 12-8. Arenado was hitting .364 with three home runs, 11 doubles and a 1.059 OPS, but this all needs context. Then again, look at Coors Field, where the Rockies still have 69 scheduled games to play.

Fantasy owners first became infatuated with Arenado after his 2011 season at High-A Modesto, when he hit .298 and knocked in 122 runs, and the Rockies didn't really have much at the big level at third base to block him. Even I, in one NL-only league last year, drafted Arenado and waited. And waited. And he never got promoted because while spending the entire season at Double-A Tulsa he did not hit for the power scouts and analysts expected. Colleague Keith Law ranked Arenado 26th overall in his 2012 top-100 prospects and then left him out of this year's overall list, though he was No. 3 on the Rockies. Talk about a precipitous drop.

As with most prospects, the normal caveats apply: Take the chance on a free agent as long as you're not dumping someone better. Arenado, 22, clearly brings upside, a simple swing and strong contact rates through the minors, and over the next five months I could see him hitting .270 with 15 home runs, perfectly competent for most leagues. I think Moustakas, Freese and Middlebrooks can do this as well, to varying levels, and each accomplished one -- or both -- of these modest statistics last season. Currently they aren't hitting, and since I view third base as being relatively deep this season, I feel like none of those hitters offers so much upside that I can be burned missing it. There's depth here. In colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft's latest position rankings there are several third basemen I'd cut for Arenado today, including Youkilis, Pedro Alvarez (whom I wrote positively about last week), Middlebrooks and Moustakas. I would keep the first 12 names on that list, as well as Manny Machado, Kyle Seager and Matt Carpenter.

Of course, the other big news surrounding the Rockies on Sunday was the face of the franchise hurting his left shoulder on an odd-looking slide at home plate. Knowing that shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is hardly the picture of durability, even the threat of injury and a missed game or two for him can send fantasy owners into a panic. Don't panic. Tulowitzki has a mild left shoulder strain and might miss a game or two, but as the top shortstop on ESPN's Player Rater, I'd take this opportunity to buy him, not sell.

 

[HacheMan]

Bits: Stanton off the home run schneid

Eric Karabell

Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton worried many a fantasy owner the first three weeks of this season; he entered last Wednesday hitting .176 with one lonely RBI in 14 games. But good things come to those who wait: Stanton launched his first home run Saturday, then smacked a couple more on Sunday. That's right, three home runs in one weekend, plus four runs scored and five RBIs. Well, there goes your chance to buy low, but then again, what was everyone so worried about, anyway?

I've acknowledged all along that the Marlins do not possess what a reasonable person would call a good offensive squad, despite Stanton's presence, but they didn't last season either. Only the Houston Astros scored fewer runs in 2012. I refuse to buy into the lack of talent surrounding Stanton as a justifiable explanation for struggles so deep that they reduce his value to the point one would ever consider dropping him (which you can't in ESPN standard leagues) or trading him for 14th-round talent. Last season, Stanton mashed 37 home runs in a mere 123 games, hitting .290 and slugging .608, best in the major leagues among qualified hitters. He didn't have Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols protecting him in the lineup then, either.

<OFFER>In actuality, the 2012 Marlins had Stanton, Jose Reyes and, for a few months each, Hanley Ramirez and Justin Ruggiano, and little else. Please don't use the likes of Logan Morrison as an example of lineup protection that the current Marlins didn't possess. Morrison produced a .707 OPS. Stanton is the team's No. 3 hitter; the cleanup hitters are actually hitting .264, second on the club to the team's No. 6 hitters (.291). No Marlins are really hitting for power, but still, don't overrate lineup protection. It doesn't explain Stanton's 2012 because, frankly, it doesn't exist.</OFFER>

Yes, Stanton is seeing a fewer percentage of strikes than any other hitter in the game except for San Francisco Giants hacking third baseman Pablo Sandoval, but in looking at the leaderboard for Zone% on Fangraphs, some of these hitters are actually off to very good starts, like Lance Berkman, Nate Schierholtz and that Bryce Harper fellow. Not to mention, it's still April, so this information falls in the "small sample size" category anyway. But we want sluggers to draw more walks and swing at the right pitches, and Stanton will adjust.

I suppose the case can be made that Stanton should never have been a second-round choice in ESPN average live drafts to begin with, but I won't make it. I can't say I was targeting him, but I predicted only two hitters would reach 40 home runs, and he was one of them (Jose Bautista the other). Today, I'd predict each can still do so, along with Harper, who will. Regardless, selling low on Stanton never made sense to me, nor does using his weekend performance to sell high, because he's capable of hitting all season. He did, after all, have a shoulder injury that cost him time a few weeks ago, and I feel compelled to point out that Stanton hit only .247 with one measly home run last April, then exploded for a .343 batting average with 12 blasts and 30 RBIs in May. He's going to be fine.

When sluggers like Stanton don't perform, people look for reasons why. Stanton didn't seem really pleased this winter with the direction the organization was taking, and it's possible that's affecting him or his focus, too. After all, for a really good right fielder to have five errors in three weeks seems awfully odd. Can't blame that on Placido Polanco and Greg Dobbs batting cleanup.


Box score bits (NL): Cincinnati Reds lefty Tony Cingrani continues to dominate, striking out 11 Washington Nationals on Sunday while allowing two hits and nary a run in six innings. Through three outings, Cingrani, who is owned in 83 percent of ESPN standard leagues, boasts a 2.25 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 28 strikeouts. If he keeps this up, he will not be sent back to the minors when Johnny Cueto returns, no matter what Mike Leake does. … Philadelphia Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz made his season debut Sunday after serving his 25-game drug suspension, and he got one hit (a double) in four at-bats from the No. 5 lineup slot. As noted Friday, Ruiz is among my top-10 catchers for the rest of the season. … St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Jason Motte was seemingly headed for Tommy John surgery a few weeks ago. But over the weekend, he threw multiple times, without issue. Perhaps Motte, owned in 35 percent of ESPN leagues, is worth keeping around after all, just in case. … You don't want Pittsburgh Pirates Russell Martin (two home runs Sunday, one Saturday) or soft-tossing lefty Jeff Locke (13 scoreless innings combined at Philadelphia and St. Louis last week) in a 10-team league. Trust me.

Box score bits (AL): Boston Red Sox right-hander John Lackey and his recovered strained biceps came off the disabled list Sunday and tossed six nice innings, striking out four batters while beating the Astros. Yeah, it was the Astros, but still, Lackey has AL-only viability. … Oakland Athletics outfielder Yoenis Cespedes made a triumphant return from the DL on Sunday, swatting a game-tying ninth-inning home run. Cespedes is a terrific buy-low option, while you can. … Toronto Blue Jays right-hander R.A. Dickey threw well Sunday; he lost to the New York Yankees 3-2, but he allowed only four hits in seven innings. Dickey is scheduled to have an MRI on his ailing neck/back, making him a risky play this week. … Baltimore Orioles outfielder Nate McLouth had four hits, four runs and his eighth stolen base Sunday. Yeah, you bet I'd add him until this stops, and I'm starting to question if that's going to be soon. … OK, I admit it, Seattle Mariners right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma looks terrific, and I see no negatives. He fanned eight Angels on Sunday, walking none.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Improving hitting stats[/h][h=3]What numbers must you reach and which hitters can help you get there?[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Is there a deadline to make a comeback in a fantasy baseball league?

It's the question we asked in Wednesday's 60 Feet, 6 Inches, in which the consensus take, examining the five prominent rotisserie pitching categories, was that mid-May represented a sort of breaking point for improving one's squad. Beyond June 1, improvement -- especially to your ratios -- was more difficult.

It's the question we now ask today, turning our attention to the five prominent rotisserie hitting categories -- and it turns out that fantasy owners can afford to wait a little longer before improvement becomes more difficult.

But not much longer.

To illustrate, the chart below shows you what an average team's statistical contributions were in ESPN standard 10-team mixed leagues in 2012. These numbers should help you set full-season categorical goals. Every league will vary, but these are good baselines for setting your projections.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>

Place	<CENTER>AVG</CENTER>	<CENTER>HR</CENTER>	<CENTER>RBI</CENTER>	<CENTER>SB</CENTER>	<CENTER>R</CENTER>
1	.275	292	1,061	189	1,118
2	.273	283	1,039	178	1,089
3	.272	276	1,024	172	1,069
4	.272	272	1,013	167	1,054
5	.271	268	998	161	1,032
6	.271	261	980	158	1,018
7	.271	255	961	154	996
8	.270	249	941	149	974
9	.270	242	918	143	951
10	.269	231	879	136	912

<TBODY>
</TBODY>

First, compare your team's full-season paces by category to the chart above. Are you considerably ahead of pace, or might you be surprised to learn that your "hot-starting" team is actually further behind than you thought? Take special note of any categories in which your team is noticeably ahead of the average first-place team or behind the last-place team; those are probably your excesses and weaknesses.

Returning to the initial question, let's assume for this exercise that your team is pacing for last-place numbers by category and your goal is to improve your overall rotisserie point total into the 80-point range -- that's eight, or third place, in each of the 10 standard categories -- to give yourself an excellent chance of winning. (The average winner's total in 2012 was 81.36 points.)

The chart below shows you what, using 2012 team averages, you'll need to gain from each of your 13 active hitting spots during the remainder of the season in order to make up the ground necessary to reach the 80-point threshold. To show degree of difficulty by stage of season, six start dates are used: May 1, May 16, June 1, June 16, July 1 and the All-Star break.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>

Date	<CENTER>Banked AB</CENTER>	<CENTER>AVG</CENTER>	<CENTER>HR/Spot</CENTER>	<CENTER>R/Spot</CENTER>	<CENTER>RBI/Spot</CENTER>	<CENTER>SB/Spot</CENTER>
5/1	1043	.273	0.74	2.54	2.25	0.66
5/16	1605	.274	1.15	3.91	3.46	1.01
6/1	2167	.274	1.55	5.28	4.68	1.36
6/16	2728	.275	1.95	6.65	5.89	1.72
7/1	3290	.276	2.35	8.01	7.10	2.07
ASB	3812	.278	2.72	9.28	8.23	2.40

<TBODY>
</TBODY>

Oddly, unlike on the pitching side, where two of the five categories are ratios, on the hitting side, the one ratio category -- batting average -- might appear at first glance to be the easiest in which to gain ground.

Not so -- but at least you can afford to wait longer than you could for ERA or WHIP.

[h=3]Batting average[/h]
Remember that the deeper we get into the season, the larger the sample size from which your team's batting average is drawn. In other words, a two-point difference in the standings has more weight in, say, July than it does today.

Let's analyze this statistically: If you're pacing for last-place numbers in batting average, you're batting .269 today (and with some hope, not worse than that). Your goal to finish third would be a .272 batting average.

As with ERA and WHIP, let's assume that some of your team's misfortunes were mere bad luck; you might have a team that also would place dead last in BABIP, or you own several players with horrible BABIP numbers. For this exercise, let's assume your team should regress to the mean in future weeks, meaning your squad should be capable of a .271 mark from this point forward, which was the league-average number in ESPN standard leagues in 2012.

If that's true, then you'll need one of your 13 hitting spots to provide you a .295 batting average over 420 remaining at-bats from May 1 forward, or you will need two of those 13 spots to provide a .283 mark, assuming the remainder of your squad hits exactly .271. From May 1 forward last season, 32 players managed at least a .295 mark in 420 or more at-bats, and 49 managed at least a .283 batting average in the requisite at-bats. Those hint that there's plenty of time to correct your batting-average problems if you act today.

Now, let's try this with May 16 as our starting point: You would need a .303 batting average from one player, a mark that 24 qualified hitters achieved after that date last season, or a .287 mark from two, which 47 managed in 2012.


That still seems manageable, right?

Let's jump ahead by a month and use June 16 as our starting point: From that point forward, you would need one player to bat at least .324 or two to bat .296 around the remainder of your lineup that bats the league-average .271. Last season, only 11 players managed to bat .324 in the requisite at-bats after June 16, but 35 hitters managed to bat .296 or better.

That June 16 date is the first point at which the degree of difficulty significantly increases, but at the same time those numbers show that such improvement isn't impossible. The primary difference is that, 6-7 weeks from now, you might need to acquire two batting-average specialists, rather than one, to make up ground.

Here are some potential batting-average contributors you might acquire cheaply:

Martin Prado: His .225 batting average is 35 points beneath his worst single (full) year number (.260 in 2011), and it's 65 points worse than his .290 mark in the past three seasons combined. A .223 BABIP has a lot to do with it; Prado's batted-ball rates are largely the same as they've always been, and he has made as consistently hard contact as he always has. An added advantage if you target him via trade: He's both outfield and third-base eligible.

Adrian Beltre: Granted, he's not making quite as quality contact as he did during his previous two years with the Texas Rangers -- his well-hit average (percentage of at-bats that resulted in hard contact) is .214, down from .309 in 2011 and .284 in 2012 -- but Beltre still has a good chance at finishing with a batting average in the .290 range. After all, it's difficult to imagine a hitter with a mere 11.3 percent strikeout rate since the beginning of 2011 batting a mere .214.

Billy Butler: He batted .306 from 2009-12 combined, never finishing with a single-year mark beneath .291, and he's a lifetime .300 hitter in the majors after hitting .336 during his minor league career, yet he's batting only .272 in 2013. Fortunately, it's not a product of Butler making bad decisions at the plate. He has an elevated 18.2 percent walk rate and opposing pitchers have thrown him only 47 percent of his pitches in the strike zone (50 percent from 2010-12).

Now, let's address the other counting categories on the hitting side, ranking them from easiest to most difficult in which to gain ground:

[h=3]Stolen bases[/h]
There's a reason steals are the easiest category -- among the five rotisserie hitting ones -- in which to singularly gain ground: It's that speedsters are easy to identify, and many of them suffer in terms of perceived value because of the old "one-category player" stigma. Ask Juan Pierre; for a decade he has gotten a bad rap for "helping you in steals only," yet year after year he's about as smart a trade target as there is for a steals-seeking team.

Consider that if you make a move for a speedster today, all you need as a last-place team seeking a third-place finish is to pick up an additional 8.5 steals from your 13 lineup spots. Look at some of 2012's biggest surprises: Mike Trout swiped 49 bags, Everth Cabrera 44, Norichika Aoki 30, Jarrod Dyson 30 and Tony Campana 30.


Frankly, you could wait until as late as mid-June, if you're willing to trade for your steals, considering the chart above shows that a team needs to gain 22.3 steals from its roster from June 16 forward. If there's any difference between now and then, it's that you might be able to scoop up steals off the waiver wire; by June, you'll almost certainly have to get it via trade.

Here are some potential speedsters you could target:

Angel Pagan: He swiped 37, 32 and 29 bases the past three seasons, working forward, and has the on-base skills necessary to give himself another reasonable chance at 30 come year's end. There's little in Pagan's profile to suggest he's slowing down, yet to date he's on pace for only 23 steals. You might be running out of time, though; he has three steals in his past six games.

Brett Gardner: He hasn't appeared quite his usual self through the season's first month. His walk rate down (9.1 percent, after 12.1 percent from 2010-12 combined), and his season pace for stolen bases is merely 24. But considering Gardner missed almost the entire 2012 campaign with elbow issues, might it be understandable that he needed some time to get comfortable at the plate? There's no question he has the on-base skills to drive his stolen-base opportunities and the speed to get his final number into the 40-45 range.

B.J. Upton: He's off to an awful start with his new team, the Atlanta Braves, but has everyone simply forgotten how hot and cold Upton has been throughout the course of his career? The main reason his slump is more noticeable is that it's coming at the beginning of the year. His June 2012 was every bit as poor, as he batted .194 with only one home run and three stolen bases in 27 games that month. If Upton's owner is in a panic, swoop in. He's probably just adjusting to a new league and team and is bound for a hit streak soon.

[h=3]Runs scored[/h]
This is a category in which your standing can quickly get out of hand, but unlike RBIs, it's not necessarily as difficult to address because of how frequently it's underrated by fantasy owners. It's often tied to other rotisserie departments, as home run hitters and speedsters tend to also be solid contributors in runs.



Here are some potential runs scored contributors you could target:

Everth Cabrera: There are few smarter runs scored targets than speedsters who bat first or second and know how to draw a walk. Cabrera is one of the quickest players in the game -- he has 51 steals in 58 chances since the beginning of last season -- and he has an 11.3 percent walk rate in 2013.

Desmond Jennings: He brings with him some danger in the batting-average department -- a .245 career hitter in the bigs -- but he's adept at drawing walks with a career rate of 9.1 percent, he's the table setter for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he lacks any significant competition for either his center-field or leadoff role.

Erick Aybar: Now healthy, Aybar has returned as the Los Angeles Angels' leadoff hitter -- effectively swapping spots with new No. 2 hitter Mike Trout -- and that means getting to bat ahead of run producers like Trout, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and Mark Trumbo.

[h=3]RBIs[/h]
RBIs tend to be a difficult category to address the deeper we get into the season, primarily because of their correlation to home runs -- the next category we'll discuss. Still, those seeking improvement in this category might want to target slow-starting players ticketed for middle-of-the-order jobs over the long haul or players who hit reasonably high in loaded lineups.


Here are some potential RBI producers you could target:

Miguel Montero: He's the No. 4 or 5 hitter in a lineup in which the leadoff/No. 2 hitter (Martin Prado) sports a puzzling .271 on-base percentage and in which both Adam Eaton and Aaron Hill should return in several weeks to capture two more of those top 3-4 spots. Montero himself is off to a slow start; his .194 batting average is 77 points beneath his career average, and he has slugged at least .435 in each of the past five seasons.

Ryan Zimmerman: He's a streaky, injury-prone player, but he's also one destined to slot back into the heart of the Washington Nationals order, behind the hot-starting Bryce Harper (who, granted, is now day-to-day). Remember, Zimmerman batted .319/.384/.580 with 20 home runs and 64 RBIs in 83 games over the final four months of last season, so he has the ability to get massively hot.

[h=3]Home runs[/h]
Why are home runs the most difficult category, being that they're a counting category? Simple: People place more of a premium on home runs than the other four categories. The chart above illustrates that, come June 1, you would need to pick up an additional 20.1 homers from your squad in the final four months in order to make the nine-point rally you would need to go from last to third place.


In other words, you would need to specifically target potential league leaders in homers, players available to you only via trade, and you're going to play a hefty price because the majority of them are valued in or near the top 25 players overall. This is the category in which you will want to make your move sooner rather than later -- especially since right now is a good buy-low time.

Here are some potential home run hitters you could target:

Jay Bruce: He is a streaky hitter, period, best illustrated by his career .256 batting average and 23.8 percent strikeout rate, so his current season total of one home run shouldn't come across as completely shocking. Remember, this is a slugger who once belted seven home runs in an 11-game span right around this time in 2012 -- April 26 to May 8 -- and his current 4.0 home run/fly ball percentage is ridiculously beneath his 16.3 percent number from 2010-12 combined.

Ike Davis: I'm still buying, but I've always been clear that this is not the kind of player you want for his batting-average contributions. Slow starts are nothing new to Davis. He was batting .170/.228/.296 with five home runs through May last season, meaning he was off to an even worse start than now. From June 12 forward last season, Davis hit 27 home runs, a number exceeded by only nine players in baseball.

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[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rk" column; these rankings can also be seen split up by position. Previous Ranking ("Prv Rk") is ESPN's preseason ranking among all hitters.

<CENTER># </CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rk </CENTER>	<CENTER>Prv Rk </CENTER>	<CENTER># </CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rk </CENTER>	<CENTER>Prv Rk </CENTER>
1	Ryan Braun, Mil	OF1	1		76	Rickie Weeks, Mil	2B7	78
2	Miguel Cabrera, Det	3B1	2		77	Matt Wieters, Bal	C5	60
3	Mike Trout, LAA	OF2	3		78	Nelson Cruz, Tex	OF39	77
4	Robinson Cano, NYY	2B1	6		79	Torii Hunter, Det	OF40	84
5	Justin Upton, Atl	OF3	5		80	Wilin Rosario, Col	C6	90
6	Andrew McCutchen, Pit	OF4	4		81	Aaron Hill, Ari	2B8	83
7	Carlos Gonzalez, Col	OF5	7		82	Melky Cabrera, Tor	OF41	72
8	Prince Fielder, Det	1B1	8		83	Jed Lowrie, Oak	SS8	79
9	Joey Votto, Cin	1B2	9		84	Aramis Ramirez, Mil	3B11	85
10	David Wright, NYM	3B2	10		85	Jason Kipnis, Cle	2B9	82
11	Troy Tulowitzki, Col	SS1	11		86	Howie Kendrick, LAA	2B10	80
12	Bryce Harper, Wsh	OF6	12		87	David Ortiz, Bos	DH1	93
13	Evan Longoria, TB	3B3	14		88	Michael Cuddyer, Col	OF42	94
14	Albert Pujols, LAA	1B3	15		89	Manny Machado, Bal	3B12	104
15	Matt Kemp, LAD	OF7	13		90	Alejandro De Aza, CWS	OF43	96
16	Ian Kinsler, Tex	2B2	17		91	Paul Konerko, CWS	1B11	97
17	Adam Jones, Bal	OF8	16		92	Mike Napoli, Bos	C7	110
18	Jose Bautista, Tor	OF9	18		93	Jean Segura, Mil	SS9	116
19	Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos	OF10	20		94	Josh Reddick, Oak	OF44	88
20	Buster Posey, SF	C1	19		95	Miguel Montero, Ari	C8	92
21	Dustin Pedroia, Bos	2B3	23		96	Everth Cabrera, SD	SS10	105
22	Edwin Encarnacion, Tor	1B4	30		97	Ike Davis, NYM	1B12	81
23	Brandon Phillips, Cin	2B4	24		98	Erick Aybar, LAA	SS11	102
24	Paul Goldschmidt, Ari	1B5	25		99	Kendrys Morales, Sea	1B13	99
25	Adrian Beltre, Tex	3B4	22		100	Ben Revere, Phi	OF45	89
26	Austin Jackson, Det	OF11	28		101	Ryan Howard, Phi	1B14	107
27	Starlin Castro, ChC	SS2	26		102	Norichika Aoki, Mil	OF46	106
28	Jay Bruce, Cin	OF12	27		103	Kevin Youkilis, NYY	3B13	91
29	Adrian Gonzalez, LAD	1B6	35		104	Kyle Seager, Sea	3B14	117
30	Matt Holliday, StL	OF13	34		105	Nick Markakis, Bal	OF47	115
31	Billy Butler, KC	1B7	29		106	Brandon Moss, Oak	1B15	122
32	Hanley Ramirez, LAD	3B5	64		107	Neil Walker, Pit	2B11	95
33	Pablo Sandoval, SF	3B6	42		108	Nick Swisher, Cle	OF48	101
34	Ben Zobrist, TB	OF14	38		109	Starling Marte, Pit	OF49	130
35	Desmond Jennings, TB	OF15	32		110	David Freese, StL	3B15	103
36	Alex Rios, CWS	OF16	44		111	Jayson Werth, Wsh	OF50	108
37	Alex Gordon, KC	OF17	45		112	Lance Berkman, Tex	1B16	112
38	Ian Desmond, Wsh	SS3	41		113	Josh Rutledge, Col	SS12	120
39	B.J. Upton, Atl	OF18	33		114	Pedro Alvarez, Pit	3B16	125
40	Shin-Soo Choo, Cin	OF19	39		115	Eric Hosmer, KC	1B17	87
41	Yoenis Cespedes, Oak	OF20	43		116	Andre Ethier, LAD	OF51	109
42	Josh Hamilton, LAA	OF21	37		117	Mark Teixeira, NYY	1B18	100
43	Elvis Andrus, Tex	SS4	40		118	Jason Kubel, Ari	OF52	119
44	Carlos Santana, Cle	C2	46		119	Will Middlebrooks, Bos	3B17	121
45	Chris Davis, Bal	OF22	51		120	Jose Reyes, Tor	SS13	124
46	Jason Heyward, Atl	OF23	31		121	Matt Carpenter, StL	1B19	131
47	Dexter Fowler, Col	OF24	50		122	Mark Reynolds, Cle	1B20	133
48	Chase Headley, SD	3B7	53		123	Lorenzo Cain, KC	OF53	138
49	Carl Crawford, LAD	OF25	86		124	Mike Moustakas, KC	3B18	132
50	Michael Bourn, Cle	OF26	49		125	Daniel Murphy, NYM	2B12	114
51	Jimmy Rollins, Phi	SS5	36		126	Justin Morneau, Min	1B21	123
52	Mark Trumbo, LAA	OF27	55		127	Dan Uggla, Atl	2B13	118
53	Yadier Molina, StL	C3	47		128	Jonathan Lucroy, Mil	C9	127
54	Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh	3B8	54		129	J.J. Hardy, Bal	SS14	126
55	Brett Lawrie, Tor	3B9	58		130	Victor Martinez, Det	C10	111
56	Michael Morse, Sea	OF28	62		131	Chris Young, Oak	OF54	136
57	Martin Prado, Ari	OF29	52		132	Carlos Ruiz, Phi	C11	NR
58	Allen Craig, StL	1B8	48		133	Adam LaRoche, Wsh	1B22	113
59	Freddie Freeman, Atl	1B9	57		134	Danny Espinosa, Wsh	2B14	128
60	Giancarlo Stanton, Mia	OF30	21		135	Salvador Perez, KC	C12	129
61	Jose Altuve, Hou	2B5	59		136	Michael Saunders, Sea	OF55	135
62	Curtis Granderson, NYY	OF31	61		137	Chris Carter, Hou	1B23	142
63	Carlos Gomez, Mil	OF32	69		138	Yonder Alonso, SD	1B24	NR
64	Hunter Pence, SF	OF33	63		139	Coco Crisp, Oak	OF56	98
65	Anthony Rizzo, ChC	1B10	67		140	Andrelton Simmons, Atl	SS15	141
66	Chase Utley, Phi	2B6	65		141	Chris Johnson, Atl	3B19	147
67	Todd Frazier, Cin	3B10	66		142	J.P. Arencibia, Tor	C13	134
68	Joe Mauer, Min	C4	56		143	Justin Ruggiano, Mia	OF57	139
69	Angel Pagan, SF	OF34	73		144	Brandon Belt, SF	1B25	NR
70	Alcides Escobar, KC	SS6	74		145	Josh Donaldson, Oak	3B20	NR
71	Carlos Beltran, StL	OF35	71		146	Alexei Ramirez, CWS	SS16	137
72	Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle	SS7	70		147	Vernon Wells, NYY	OF58	NR
73	Shane Victorino, Bos	OF36	68		148	Nate McLouth, Bal	OF59	NR
74	Brett Gardner, NYY	OF37	75		149	Juan Pierre, Mia	OF60	NR
75	Josh Willingham, Min	OF38	76		150	Adam Dunn, CWS	1B26	NR

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[HacheMan]

Crisp on DL; A's outfielders intriguing

Eric Karabell

Entering Wednesday, the No. 3 option on the Player Rater was none other than Oakland Athletics outfielder Coco Crisp, the same fellow who has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left hamstring. This creates quite the trouble for fantasy owners: On one hand, here's one of the most valuable players in all of fantasy a month into the season, someone owned in all leagues hitting .283 with five home runs, eight stolen bases and a whopping 24 runs scored. Then again, we all know Crisp isn't the third-best player (now fifth as of Thursday) in fantasy. He was a 20th-round choice in ESPN live drafts, a helpful player who provides stolen bases but certainly not an irreplaceable one.

However, for many dealing with one of the myriad other and better injured players, the wise move Thursday is to cut Crisp despite his awesome start to 2013. Look at all the fantasy monsters who still have that annoying asterisk next to their names, signifying DL status: Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Reyes, Jason Heyward, Ryan Zimmerman and Zack Greinke top the list, but there are at least 15 names I can find that I'd prefer to stash in my one and only DL slot. If you've got a deep bench and nobody relevant on it, of course you hold on to Crisp, but the point is his solid April shouldn't force you into a decision that could haunt you later.

Crisp is on pace for 28 home runs, 45 stolen bases and 134 runs scored, so it might seem odd to move on from that, but only the stolen bases reflect reality based on his career numbers and durability concerns. He's even drawn 17 walks against seven strikeouts, an impressive rate. In Crisp's first three seasons for the Athletics, he averaged nine home runs, 40 steals, 63 runs and, most importantly, only 110 games. Sorry, but that is Crisp, a fun but brittle player. It's possible his DL stint lasts only two more weeks, but then again, what happens when he returns? He's a streaky player, one who generally relies on speed, and this is a crowded and wonderful Athletics outfield. He was a clear sell-high choice a few days ago, but now that he's on the DL, the injury being suffered in the epic extra-inning game on Monday, good luck with that.

On Wednesday, the Athletics used Yoenis Cespedes in center field, which probably doesn't become a regular thing, but there's little worry about this player. Cespedes is a top-20 outfielder. Veteran Chris Young is a terrific outfielder, full of intriguing power and speed at the plate, but he's not a lock to hit his weight half the time. Young has achieved three 20-homer, 20-steal seasons since 2007. He's currently hitting a lame .172, but we can attribute some of that to an identical .172 batting average on balls in play. Young won't win a batting title, but he can hit .240 and already has four home runs and five steals, enough to make the batting average cost worthwhile.

The other notable struggler in the Oakland outfield is Josh Reddick, and many fantasy owners have already given up on him despite his 32 home runs, 85 RBIs and 11 stolen bases from a year ago. Reddick is hitting .148, though a .183 BABIP -- what is it about Oakland outfielders and BABIP? -- doesn't help. Reddick's power seemed a bit inflated in 2012, and 20 of his home runs came in the first half of the season, 10 last May. Like Crisp, he's going to have to hit to earn playing time on this team, because the Athletics do have options. Brandon Moss generally plays first base but can move to a corner outfield spot, and Seth Smith hits right-handers and deserves playing time, so Reddick, who doesn't have an extra-base hit in a week, is running out of time. He did draw three walks on Wednesday, but it's tough to make a mixed-league case for him.

For now, Cespedes is the only Athletics outfielder who must be owned in all leagues. I'd try to keep Crisp around if somehow your team has no other DL-eligible players more valuable, or bench room, but don't be afraid to move on despite his noteworthy numbers. Moss is near 100 percent owned in ESPN standard mixed leagues, but I suspect that will change. I think he can hit .275 with 30 home runs, but there will be bad streaks, too. Reddick is among the most dropped players, and for good reason, but remember he had a 10-homer May last year. He's capable of hitting 30 home runs again. Young is the wild card; we know he can provide 20 home runs and 20 steals, and he's the biggest threat to Crisp's playing time.

One final Athletics note: Left-hander Brett Anderson is obviously talented, but one skill he clearly lacks is health. And it is a skill. Anderson came back from Tommy John surgery last season and showed promise in six starts. That's the problem, to some degree; he always shows promise. In his first 68 career starts his ERA was 3.57, his WHIP 1.24. And he's only 25. But he sprained his right ankle a few weeks ago, kept on pitching, was scratched from Monday's start but entered in relief later in that game, reinjured himself and now is on the DL. And he was pitching poorly. A 16th-rounder in ESPN ADP, I've dropped him already, expecting fewer than 25 starts. It's always something injury-wise with Anderson. Right-hander Dan Straily, hardly a top prospect before he started striking everyone out in the minors last year, replaces Anderson, but he's got to avoid the home runs. He's permitted 13 in nine career starts, although the strikeouts keep us intrigued. Make him a spot starter for now.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]How to improve your pitching stats[/h][h=3]What numbers must you reach and which pitchers can help you get there?[/h]
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

It is the age-old question in fantasy baseball: When, if such a date could be nailed down exactly, do your league standings begin to matter?

Today, let's see if we can answer it.

In order to do so, let's first provide you 2012 average team statistical contributions across ESPN standard 10-team mixed leagues, so you can set, roughly, your full-season categorical goals. The chart below shows what the average team by standing in the given category had last season:

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Place	<CENTER>W</CENTER>	<CENTER>SV</CENTER>	<CENTER>ERA</CENTER>	<CENTER>WHIP</CENTER>	<CENTER>K</CENTER>
1	101	149	3.49	1.20	1,429
2	98	137	3.57	1.21	1,389
3	94	123	3.61	1.22	1,338
4	91	114	3.66	1.23	1,298
5	89	105	3.69	1.23	1,265
6	87	94	3.72	1.24	1,229
7	84	85	3.75	1.24	1,193
8	81	76	3.77	1.25	1,151
9	78	68	3.83	1.26	1,102
10	72	58	3.89	1.27	1,030

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Though your league's current standings might exhibit wider ranges from first to 10th by category -- the 26-games-per-team average thus far, a considerably smaller sample than those 162-game numbers from 2012, influences that -- your first assignment is to compare your team's placement in each category to the chart above. Where would your current paces place you? Might your paces exceed those of the average first-place team, or fall shy of the last-place squads?

Let's assume you're on pace to match the last-place numbers in every category, and you need to improve your overall Rotisserie point total to the 80-point range -- eight in each of the 10 standard categories -- in order to win. (The average winner's total, incidentally, was 81.36 points.) The chart below tells you what, again using last year's averages, you'd need to gain from each of the nine active pitching spots on your team during the remainder of the season in order to reach that 80-point threshold. Six different start dates are used to illustrate the difficulty at each stage: May 1, May 16, June 1, June 16, July 1 and the All-Star break.

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Date	<CENTER>Banked IP</CENTER>	<CENTER>ERA</CENTER>	<CENTER>WHIP</CENTER>	<CENTER>W/Spot</CENTER>	<CENTER>SV/Spot</CENTER>	<CENTER>K/Spot</CENTER>
5/1	232 2/3	3.56	1.18	0.4	1.2	5.5
5/16	358	3.51	1.17	0.6	1.8	8.4
6/1	483 1/3	3.46	1.16	0.8	2.4	11.4
6/16	608 2/3	3.40	1.15	1.0	3.1	14.4
7/1	734	3.32	1.12	1.2	3.7	17.3
ASB	850 1/3	3.21	1.10	1.4	4.3	20.1

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As you might expect, it's the counting numbers -- wins, saves and strikeouts -- that are the easiest to correct. Considering the ease of projecting saves and K's, at least comparative to the more volatile ERA, these might be your smartest routes to improving your slow start. Perhaps you'll only need to address one category; perhaps you'll need to attack them all.

Let's go category-by-category, in order of easiest to most difficult -- in this columnist's opinion -- to correct.

[h=3]Saves[/h]
There's no easier category to fix at any stage of the season. Longtime readers might recall this personal example, but I'll repeat it to offer encouragement to owners currently lacking in saves: I once, about five years ago in a 12-team mixed league, resided in 10th place in saves around Aug. 1, only to win the category by trading for two full-time closers and picking up a third off waivers. That nine-point improvement was crucial to my team's boost in the final standings.

Look at the stats in the chart above: Even at the All-Star break, that 4.3-save necessary boost equates to 38.6 additional saves needed from your team in the season's second half. To put that into perspective, nine closers managed at least 19 saves in the second half of 2012, so adding two to your roster would've been all that was necessary to rally from last to third place. Twenty closers managed 13 or more saves, meaning adding three from that group would've gotten it done.

The impact that timing has on the equation is the method you'll need to acquire these saves. All nine closers with 19 second-half saves would've been owned in ESPN leagues at the All-Star break; pitchers like Tyler Clippard and Steve Cishek, from the group that had at least 13, might have been available as free agents.

In other words, remain mindful of your waiver wire, but as the dates in the above chart approach, you'll increasingly need to go the trade route for your saves.

Here are some potential save-getters you might be able to acquire on the cheap:

Greg Holland: That he's one of the 30 current big-league closers with a potentially more-talented arm behind him (Kelvin Herrera) spawns questions about his long-term prospects in the role; a slow start to 2013 might also have contributed to his owners' doubts. Beyond Herrera's presence, however, Holland's troubles were overblown in the early weeks. Consider that he started last year slowly, too, posting an 11.37 ERA in April, only to register a 2.08 ERA after a brief, early-season DL stint. What if Holland is merely a slow starter? He might still be capable of another 30 saves, and he's among the best sources of strikeouts from the current big-league closer crop.

Kevin Gregg: Incredibly, Gregg, scooped right off the free-agent scrap heap in mid-April, appears to have emerged as the Chicago Cubs' new closer, thanks to four consecutive converted save chances. He's no safe bet in terms of ERA/WHIP -- make sure you do your homework to determine whether he'll do more damage than good to your ratios -- but he's also available for the mere cost of a free-agent pickup in 40.7 percent of ESPN leagues. Sometimes, it's pickups like these, even as short-term fill-ins, that do the most to correct your poor standing.

David Hernandez: He's not closing yet, but considering the recent struggles of J.J. Putz, Hernandez is a smart pitcher to stash. Putz has blown three of his past six save chances with a 5.40 ERA in seven games during that span; Hernandez has a 2.93 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 11.31 K/9 ratio during his Arizona Diamondbacks career.

[h=3]Strikeouts[/h]
The reason strikeouts gets the nod over wins is simple: K's are much, much more projectable a category of the two. Wins are largely unpredictable; strikeout-getting pitchers are far more identifiable.


Still, unlike saves, strikeouts have a time limit for those looking to improve. Looking at the chart above, the 11.4-K improvement required from June 1 forward equates to 103 additional K's needed from your nine pitching spots the remainder of the year. Using last season's numbers, that's effectively the difference between R.A. Dickey (169) and Clayton Richard (68), meaning that you'll probably need to acquire at least two strikeout-getters to address the problem after that date.

Using the May 16 numbers -- or a 76-K necessary improvement from your staff -- we're talking about the difference between Dickey (198) and, say, Wade Miley (122) or Jonathon Niese (122). That comparison makes it seem that May is the most critical time of year to correct a strikeout deficit.

Of course, strikeout improvement can be as simple as swapping a closer for a strikeout-getting starter; in many cases that's your best route, if you're already in good standing in the saves category or have some to spare.

Some potential strikeout artists you might be able to acquire on the cheap:

Max Scherzer: He's annually among the leaders in K-per-nine ratio -- his 13.21 number is second thus far -- and his "slow start" can be explained as simply as the 2.35 between his ERA (4.02) and FIP (1.68), the fifth-largest margin in the majors. Scherzer started last season slowly, too, but from May 1 forward he had a 3.14 ERA and 1.16 WHIP … plus a whopping 204 K's.

Jeff Samardzija: He was fourth in the game in K-per-nine ratio in 2012 (9.27) and ranks fifth thus far in 2013 (11.23), and he has the advantage of being underrated because he's a member of the Chicago Cubs, which hurts his "win potential." Samardzija seems much more likely to approach 200 innings this year after tallying 172 2/3 last season; that's another reason to target him via trade.

[h=3]Wins[/h]
I hate targeting wins, but manipulating the categorical standings is sometimes every bit as simple as swapping your closers for starters, who stand the better chance at quickly racking up wins.


It's also sometimes as simple as trading your starters from bad teams -- like the aforementioned Samardzija -- for those on good teams -- like Scherzer -- or by simply arranging your daily or weekly lineups to maximize your team's number of starts. (Whether your league has a cap on starts influences that, however.)

The early returns make it clear that the Detroit Tigers, Oakland Athletics, Baltimore Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds should be consistent sources of wins, accounting these teams' combination of run production and/or bullpen support; those in need of wins generally want pitchers from these squads.

Some potential "winners" you might be able to acquire on the cheap:

Derek Holland: He has four quality starts in five games, but only one win to show for it, and any of his past fantasy owners might be concerned that in his career he has never posted an ERA under 3.95 or WHIP beneath 1.22. What those skeptics might not have noticed, however, is that Holland improved his K-to-walk ratio in each of the past two seasons, and thus far it's at a career-best 3.11. He continues to hone his command, and he might be the sneakiest 15-win candidate out there.

Homer Bailey: Like Holland, Bailey has four quality starts in five games, but just one win. That two of his starts came against the Washington Nationals -- though he did win the first one -- and another came at St. Louis' Busch Stadium, where his career statistics are terrible, hasn't helped. Again like Holland, Bailey's K-to-walk ratio has consistently progressed: His 3.56 number to date would represent a new career-high, topping 2012's 3.23.

[h=3]ERA/WHIP[/h]
It's the ratio categories that are the most difficult to influence the deeper we get into the season, even if the chart above makes it appear as if the necessary improvements from those dates forward are marginal. I'd argue that WHIP is slightly easier to influence, if only because it tends to be the easier of the two ratio departments to project from season to season, but your strategy in either category nevertheless should be the same.

Let's approach it statistically: You're currently pacing for last-place numbers in either category, meaning today, your team ERA is 3.89, your WHIP 1.27. Your goal in either category, come season's end, is a 3.61 ERA or 1.20 WHIP, both of which would've placed you third in an average ESPN league last season.


Perhaps some of the reason for your slow start in either category has been bad luck; statistics like BABIP, home run/fly ball percentage, left-on-base percentage, FIP and xFIP can help determine whether that's true. So for this exercise, let's assume that your pitchers are due some degree of regression to the mean; we'll say that your pitchers should be expected a 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP from this point forward, which would've been league-average numbers in ESPN standard leagues in 2012.

In that event, you'll need one of your nine pitching spots to give you a starter's equivalent of 168 innings of a 2.68 ERA and 0.87 WHIP from May 1 in order for your team to hit those 3.61-ERA, 1.20-WHIP full-season requirements for third place. Four pitchers met both those innings and ERA requirements from May 1 forward last season; no one had that low a WHIP. The alternative is having two of your nine pitching spots giving you at least 168 innings with a 3.19 ERA and 1.05 WHIP; 13 pitchers met the innings and ERA requirements, but only two (Dickey and Clayton Kershaw) did so in both innings and WHIP.

Now let's look at June 1: Assuming the same level of staff regression in ERA/WHIP, you'd need two of your nine pitching spots to give you a 2.83 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 150 innings apiece to rally back into third place. Four pitchers managed the innings and ERA requirements; no one did so in both innings and WHIP.

The lesson is simple: It is imperative that, if you plan to finish among the leaders in ERA and WHIP and are off to a slow start in either category, you address your team's shortcomings in either area in May. By month's end, it's time to adjust your expectations in either category downward and try to improve in other areas. In no other category does the last-place pit get deeper these next few weeks.

Some potential ERA/WHIP options you might be able to acquire on the cheap:

David Price: Understand going in that you'll need to pay a top-10 starter's price to acquire him, but bold times require bold measures, and Price's owner might be more apt to deal him today than, say, a month from now. The point is that you might have a chance to acquire him at all, whereas once Price recaptures his prior Cy Young form, he might be untouchable. Talk up his slightly diminished fastball velocity -- he has averaged 93.5 mph with it, down from 95.4 mph in 2012 -- and his bloated 1.37 WHIP. The truth is that Price's command numbers have scarcely changed, and his 3.94 FIP shows that he's due for improvement.

Matt Cain: Go bold or go home. Teams in desperate need of ERA/WHIP help must take chances, and there's nothing in Cain's profile to suggest his early-season struggles are anything more than bad location. His velocity hasn't really changed (90.7 mph average fastball this year, 91.1 mph last), and he hasn't afforded any greater rate of hard contact than he did in 2012. If you can possibly swing a trade for Cain at beneath his spot in this column's rankings, he's as brilliant a candidate to improve your ERA/WHIP as you'll find.

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[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For starter- or reliever-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rnk" column. Previous Ranking ("Prev Rnk") is ESPN's preseason ranking among all pitchers.

<CENTER>Rnk </CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rnk </CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk </CENTER>	<CENTER>Rnk </CENTER>	Player	<CENTER>Pos Rnk </CENTER>	<CENTER>Prev Rnk </CENTER>
1	Clayton Kershaw, LAD	SP1	1		76	Tim Hudson, Atl	SP56	66
2	Felix Hernandez, Sea	SP2	3		77	Trevor Cahill, Ari	SP57	76
3	Justin Verlander, Det	SP3	2		78	Huston Street, SD	RP21	68
4	Yu Darvish, Tex	SP4	7		79	Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea	SP58	86
5	Stephen Strasburg, Wsh	SP5	4		80	Jim Henderson, Mil	RP22	87
6	Cliff Lee, Phi	SP6	5		81	Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD	SP59	80
7	Adam Wainwright, StL	SP7	9		82	Justin Masterson, Cle	SP60	91
8	Madison Bumgarner, SF	SP8	8		83	Brandon League, LAD	RP23	90
9	David Price, TB	SP9	6		84	Wandy Rodriguez, Pit	SP61	77
10	Craig Kimbrel, Atl	RP1	12		85	Kenley Jansen, LAD	RP24	83
11	Cole Hamels, Phi	SP10	10		86	Bobby Parnell, NYM	RP25	89
12	Aroldis Chapman, Cin	RP2	13		87	Ervin Santana, KC	SP62	97
13	Matt Moore, TB	SP11	17		88	C.J. Wilson, LAA	SP63	82
14	CC Sabathia, NYY	SP12	15		89	Ernesto Frieri, LAA	RP26	72
15	Chris Sale, CWS	SP13	14		90	Ross Detwiler, Wsh	SP64	92
16	Mat Latos, Cin	SP14	18		91	Andy Pettitte, NYY	SP65	95
17	Gio Gonzalez, Wsh	SP15	16		92	Patrick Corbin, Ari	SP66	102
18	Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh	SP16	20		93	Andrew Bailey, Bos	RP27	105
19	Matt Cain, SF	SP17	11		94	Grant Balfour, Oak	RP28	85
20	Jon Lester, Bos	SP18	21		95	Wei-Yin Chen, Bal	SP67	98
21	Matt Harvey, NYM	SP19	23		96	Jason Hammel, Bal	SP68	96
22	Max Scherzer, Det	SP20	22		97	Ryan Vogelsong, SF	SP69	84
23	Jeff Samardzija, ChC	SP21	24		98	Edwin Jackson, ChC	SP70	103
24	R.A. Dickey, Tor	SP22	19		99	Josh Beckett, LAD	SP71	94
25	Mariano Rivera, NYY	RP3	29		100	Dan Haren, Wsh	SP72	99
26	Anibal Sanchez, Det	SP23	32		101	Matt Garza, ChC	SP73	106
27	James Shields, KC	SP24	25		102	Jhoulys Chacin, Col	SP74	114
28	Rafael Soriano, Wsh	RP4	26		103	Ryan Madson, LAA	RP29	123
29	Jake Peavy, CWS	SP25	30		104	Brandon Beachy, Atl	SP75	111
30	Johnny Cueto, Cin	SP26	31		105	Tony Cingrani, Cin	SP76	132
31	Addison Reed, CWS	RP5	33		106	Edward Mujica, StL	RP30	131
32	Jonathan Papelbon, Phi	RP6	27		107	Jose Valverde, Det	RP31	NR
33	Doug Fister, Det	SP27	41		108	Phil Hughes, NYY	SP77	104
34	Joe Nathan, Tex	RP7	35		109	Bartolo Colon, Oak	SP78	117
35	Ian Kennedy, Ari	SP28	34		110	Andrew Cashner, SD	SP79	NR
36	Hiroki Kuroda, NYY	SP29	38		111	J.A. Happ, Tor	SP80	124
37	Kris Medlen, Atl	RP8	28		112	Shaun Marcum, NYM	SP81	125
38	Sergio Romo, SF	RP9	42		113	Jose Fernandez, Mia	SP82	88
39	Homer Bailey, Cin	SP30	43		114	James McDonald, Pit	SP83	110
40	Jim Johnson, Bal	RP10	46		115	Bud Norris, Hou	SP84	107
41	Jonathon Niese, NYM	SP31	37		116	Kyuji Fujikawa, ChC	RP32	109
42	Mike Minor, Atl	SP32	47		117	Joel Hanrahan, Bos	RP33	93
43	Yovani Gallardo, Mil	SP33	45		118	Chris Tillman, Bal	SP85	115
44	Alex Cobb, TB	SP34	48		119	Jose Quintana, CWS	SP86	130
45	Clay Buchholz, Bos	SP35	50		120	Brandon McCarthy, Ari	SP87	119
46	Brandon Morrow, Tor	SP36	36		121	Steve Cishek, Mia	RP34	108
47	Fernando Rodney, TB	RP11	44		122	Felix Doubront, Bos	SP88	135
48	Paul Maholm, Atl	SP37	49		123	Ryan Cook, Oak	RP35	113
49	Lance Lynn, StL	SP38	52		124	Jason Vargas, LAA	SP89	112
50	Josh Johnson, Tor	SP39	39		125	Jeremy Guthrie, KC	SP90	139
51	A.J. Burnett, Pit	SP40	53		126	Vinnie Pestano, Cle	RP36	116
52	Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea	RP12	57		127	Miguel Gonzalez, Bal	SP91	120
53	Derek Holland, Tex	SP41	51		128	A.J. Griffin, Oak	SP92	121
54	J.J. Putz, Ari	RP13	40		129	Koji Uehara, Bos	RP37	129
55	Jaime Garcia, StL	SP42	55		130	Jose Veras, Hou	RP38	136
56	Rafael Betancourt, Col	RP14	56		131	Jorge De La Rosa, Col	SP93	141
57	Jason Grilli, Pit	RP15	63		132	Drew Smyly, Det	SP94	140
58	Jered Weaver, LAA	SP43	60		133	Wade Davis, KC	RP39	122
59	Glen Perkins, Min	RP16	61		134	Joaquin Benoit, Det	RP40	101
60	Alexi Ogando, Tex	RP17	58		135	Julio Teheran, Atl	SP95	118
61	Jeremy Hellickson, TB	SP44	59		136	David Hernandez, Ari	RP41	127
62	Wade Miley, Ari	SP45	65		137	Junichi Tazawa, Bos	RP42	138
63	Tim Lincecum, SF	SP46	64		138	Luke Gregerson, SD	RP43	134
64	Jarrod Parker, Oak	SP47	62		139	Ricky Nolasco, Mia	SP96	143
65	Tommy Milone, Oak	SP48	67		140	Kyle Kendrick, Phi	SP97	NR
66	Zack Greinke, LAD	SP49	69		141	Trevor Rosenthal, StL	RP44	133
67	Ryan Dempster, Bos	SP50	75		142	Kelvin Herrera, KC	RP45	100
68	Casey Janssen, Tor	RP18	74		143	Jake Westbrook, StL	SP98	137
69	Greg Holland, KC	RP19	78		144	Bronson Arroyo, Cin	SP99	146
70	Brett Anderson, Oak	SP51	54		145	Kevin Gregg, ChC	RP46	NR
71	Kyle Lohse, Mil	SP52	73		146	David Phelps, NYY	RP47	NR
72	Marco Estrada, Mil	SP53	70		147	David Robertson, NYY	RP48	147
73	Shelby Miller, StL	SP54	81		148	Travis Wood, ChC	SP100	150
74	Roy Halladay, Phi	SP55	79		149	Lucas Harrell, Hou	SP101	NR
75	Chris Perez, Cle	RP20	71		150	Sean Marshall, Cin	RP49	NR

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[HacheMan]

Closer Report: Team-by-team breakdown

Eric Karabell

The original plan today was to open with a few paragraphs discussing just how great Chicago Cubs right-hander Kevin Gregg is, then head to notes. I would highlight Gregg's myriad positives as well as one or two negatives, if I could find any, and why he might actually keep the closer gig not only for 2013 but for eternity. Alas, I couldn't get past the sarcasm. The truth is that you, the loyal KaraBlog reader, deserve more. So let's not only discuss Gregg's chances of sustaining fantasy relevance -- I know, that's just incredible when you reread it -- but touch on each and every team, because we're one month in, and in some cases everything has changed.

Let's go in order of team wins through Thursday's games, because it's only fitting that Houston and Miami go last.

<OFFER></OFFER>
Boston Red Sox: Joel Hanrahan had the job and, though he struggled, lost it due to performance, not injury. Now Andrew Bailey, not exactly Mr. Durable, has the job and biceps soreness, resulting in Hanrahan's Thursday night save. Sorry, Bailey owners, but I originally projected more than 15 saves for each right-hander, and I'm sticking to it. Bailey last reached 50 innings in 2009. If I had to choose, I'd still go Hanrahan here.

New York Yankees: Um, never heard of their closer. He might be new. By the way, it was a year ago Friday that Mariano Rivera blew out his knee in the Kansas City outfield. He's back, looks awesome, is in a different class. Fun factoid: No AL pitcher has more strikeouts as a reliever this season than … David Phelps.

Atlanta Braves: Craig Kimbrel is dominating again. Lefty Eric O'Flaherty is terrific setting up. But I will say if something happens to Kimbrel, right-hander Jordan Walden would probably leap over O'Flaherty into the closer role. Walden was wild last year. On Thursday, he issued his first walk of the season, but also struck out the side.

Texas Rangers: Joe Nathan is safe. I kind of laugh when people say they expect Joakim Soria to supplant him. Soria missed last year after Tommy John surgery, and he's out until July at least. Nathan is cruising.

Colorado Rockies: Don't expect the first-place Rockies to be trading their closer in July. Rafael Betancourt is good enough, and Rex Brothers will have to wait another year. Wilton Lopez has been terrible.

St. Louis Cardinals: Now it gets interesting! Edward Mujica wasn't the first choice, but he could be the last one. Jason Motte hasn't had his Tommy John surgery yet, and while we're hopeful, let's be realistic. And Mitchell Boggs doesn't need to be owned. Trevor Rosenthal is likely next in line and leads all relievers in K's. He certainly could close if Mujica falters.

Baltimore Orioles: Many were concerned about Jim Johnson repeating his 2012, but there's really no danger here. He's whiffing nearly a batter per inning, too.

Detroit Tigers: Papa Grande! Colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft and I made the board bet on the Fantasy Focus baseball podcast the first week of the season on Jose Valverde's final save total. It will top 30. Of course, I'll lose other bets. I know some think Joaquin Benoit needs to be owned just in case, but I don't.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Jason Grilli entered this season with five career saves. He'll end it with 45.

San Francisco Giants: No reason to believe Sergio Romo will struggle at any point.

Oakland Athletics: Sixteen wins, three saves for this team. No team, even the Astros, has fewer. Hey, the Athletics lead the league in runs scored, so closer Grant Balfour just isn't getting save opportunities. He will.

Kansas City Royals: So much for Greg Holland sharing the role with anyone. Kelvin Herrera allowed four home runs in 84 1/3 innings in 2012. He's given up five this year in 12 1/3 innings.

Arizona Diamondbacks: What a mess this situation has become. J.J. Putz is 5-for-9 in save chances, but his velocity really isn't off much and his K rate looks great. If David Hernandez was thriving, the change would probably have been made already. Keep Putz owned. He might lose the job for a little while, but I still see a 30-save season. And by the way, Hernandez's struggles have opened the door for -- wait for it -- Heath Bell. He does have that ridiculous "experience" managers crave. Hey, don't discount Bell playing a role here. I mean, Kevin Gregg went from unemployed to closing within days, and of the 29 relievers with three or more saves, he's the only one to boast a perfect ERA.

Washington Nationals: Rafael Soriano has had a few hiccups, but with this team, he's saving 40 games. Drew Storen is next in line, not Tyler Clippard.

Cincinnati Reds: I predict Aroldis Chapman will never start a big league game, and nobody will care as he piles on the saves.


Milwaukee Brewers: This really isn't a mess, ya know. Right-hander Jim Henderson ascended to the role when John Axford imploded. And while he appeared to right himself, his last outing was a true implosion. It's Henderson's job and I say he keeps it, even when Francisco Rodriguez thinks he should be closing. That deadline is coming in about two weeks. I wouldn't confidently trade for Henderson, but he's going to save more than 25 games.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Kenley Jansen has one more save than I do. Nobody said life was fair. Also, nobody said Brandon League was great, but as I said/wrote all along, he's going to keep the job and save 30. I know he has only four strikeouts all year, but I'm betting manager Don Mattingly doesn't, and wouldn't, care anyway.

Philadelphia Phillies: No performance problems with Jonathan Papelbon.

Seattle Mariners: Tom Wilhelmsen is pretty underrated. I do think, though, that Carter Capps will be awfully popular a year from now.

Minnesota Twins: Right-hander Jared Burton will get some save chances this season, but for now lefty Glen Perkins is doing nothing wrong.

Cleveland Indians: Everyone seemed to love Vinnie Pestano six weeks ago, but Chris Perez is healthy and doing some fine work. I don't see him relinquishing the role.

Chicago White Sox: Addison Reed is secure, though he's always going to allow enough runs to avoid being elite.

Tampa Bay Rays: Fernando Rodney owners shouldn't have expected a sub-1.00 ERA to start with, but the seven walks versus nine strikeouts is Carlos Marmol-like. These are the old Rodney numbers, which is frightening. I'm only a little worried here. I think Rodney will be fine, but with an ERA in the low-3s.

New York Mets: Bobby Parnell is having a nice season. He should keep the role even when Frank Francisco returns, and I think he will. I just don't see more than 25 saves, because the Mets, you know, aren't going to be great.

San Diego Padres: Huston Street is secure until his next DL stint. Ah, we jest (though it's coming). Street really isn't pitching all that well, and I'd sell if I could, but only injury can stop him. Even if he's traded, he'd close for his new team. Next in line should be Luke Gregerson, though Dale Thayer is thriving as well.

Chicago Cubs: Six outings, four saves, nary a run for Kevin Gregg. He's 35. He was awful each of the past two years, and not exactly Dennis Eckersley prior to that. This is the Yuniesky Betancourt of closers. Enjoy the run, but run far away when it goes awry. It will. I think Gregg, Carlos Marmol and Kyuji Fujikawa will each save in the double digits, but none will reach 20. You think manager Dale Sveum knows? He makes it up from day to day.

Los Angeles Angels: Ernesto Frieri is walking way too many hitters to hold on to this job when Ryan Madson returns. Won't happen right away, but by June, it will. Madson should be stashed now.

Toronto Blue Jays: Casey Janssen is thriving, but his balky shoulder will land him on the DL at some point. This is a guy to sell high on. Sergio Santos is on the DL, but he is the proper handcuff here.

Miami Marlins: Ah yes, who will enjoy the 30 or so save opportunities for this team? Steve Cishek has not impressed as potential trade bait, and Jon Rauch has been worse. I'm still keeping an eye on A.J. Ramos for deep leagues. There's upside there.

Houston Astros: Believe it or not, five bullpens have a worse ERA than the awful Astros. Doesn't make Jose Veras look better, just sayin'. Right-hander Josh Fields remains my sleeper for saves, but there won't be many for anyone. Veras will get 16 of them, Fields eight.

Have a great weekend, and may your closers keep their jobs, for at least another few weeks!

 

[HacheMan]

Ozuna profile; top 10 prospects

By Jim Callis | Baseball America

Non-contending major league teams usually watch service time carefully, and rightfully so. If a team has no realistic chance of making the playoffs, there's no point in calling up a prospect if it's going to make him eligible for free agency and arbitration a year early. There's also no reason to rush them.

Yet the Miami Marlins decided to put Jose Fernandez on their Opening Day roster, which is going to make him expensive a year before he had to be. Now they're at it again, calling up Marcell Ozuna earlier this week.


When Giancarlo Stanton went on the disabled list with a strained hamstring on Tuesday, the Marlins lost by far the biggest threat in a lineup that ranks last in the major leagues in runs per game (2.79) and homers (13). To replace Stanton in right field, they summoned Ozuna.

<OFFER>Fernandez hadn't pitched above high Class A when he debuted for the Marlins, and Ozuna had just 42 at-bats above that level when he got promoted. Part of the reasoning was that Ozuna already was on the Marlins' 40-man roster, so they didn't have to clear space to add him. But they're running the risk of: (A) making him arbitration-eligible after 2015, if he sticks; and (B) impeding his development.</OFFER>

Though he was overshadowed by Fernandez and fellow outfield prospects Christian Yelich and Jake Marisnick in the Marlins' system, Ozuna has plenty of upside; he ranked 75th on Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects list. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2008, he has hit at least 22 homers in each of the past three full seasons. He led the short-season New York-Penn League with 21 in 2010 and the high Class A Florida State League with 24 last year, and he hit five long balls in his first 14 minor league games this season after missing the start of the season because of a wrist injury.

With Stanton sidelined, Ozuna has more raw power than anyone in Miami's lineup -- with emphasis on the word "raw." He still lacks discipline at the plate, gets too pull-conscious and chases breaking balls. At age 22, he really should be getting more minor league time to develop. The concern shouldn't be plugging a hole on a bad team; it should be helping him reach his potential as a 25-plus-homer threat who has the solid speed to steal a few bases and the range and arm strength to be a fine defender in right field.

Ozuna hasn't looked overmatched in his first three games in the majors, going 4-for-11 with two strikeouts. If he were to stick with the Marlins for the rest of the season, he'd probably post a sub-.250 batting average with as many as 15 homers and maybe 5-10 steals. But he'd be better off in the long run -- and so would Miami -- if he were in Double-A right now.

Given how the Marlins have handled their top prospects, we might see Yelich in the big leagues later in the year. Like Ozuna, he began the year on the disabled list at Double-A Jacksonville (foot injury). He's a better pure hitter with a little less power than Ozuna and a little more speed, making Yelich the better long-term option for fantasy purposes.

With that, here's this week's top 10 fantasy prospects for 2013:


[h=3]1. Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays (Last week's rank: 1)[/h]Season totals: .298 AVG/.387 OBP/.457 SLG, 3 HR, 17 RBIs, 1 SB in 24 games at Triple-A Durham.
Update: Myers' season-opening 19-game on-base streak ended on Saturday as part of a mild slump (5-for-26, nine strikeouts), though he did hit his third homer of the season. Matt Joyce is beginning to heat up in Tampa Bay, but the Rays have been playing Ben Zobrist mainly in the infield, leaving an obvious opening for Myers in the outfield.
What he can do: Myers would be the favorite to lead all rookies in homers if the Rays would put him in their outfield, but they might wait until June to delay his arbitration eligibility.

[h=3]2. Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians (Last week's rank: 3)[/h]Season totals: 1-0, 2.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 24 K's in 18 IP (three starts) at Triple-A Columbus.
Update: Bauer's lone start in the past week came in the big leagues, as he beat the Phillies with five shutout innings on Wednesday. He gave up just one hit and struck out five, though he continued to display erratic control with six walks. He impressed with his fastball, curveball and changeup, though he didn't always put them where he wanted.
What he can do: As planned, the Indians sent Bauer back to Triple-A immediately after his spot start. Their rotation is still a mess behind Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez, and Bauer could post double-digit wins and plenty of strikeouts if he can harness his stuff.


[h=3]3. Nick Franklin, 2B/SS, Seattle Mariners (Last week: unranked)[/h]Season totals: .377/.500/.565, 3 HR, 14 RBIs, 4 SB in 19 games at Triple-A Tacoma.
Update: In the same 2009 draft in which they took Dustin Ackley with the No. 2 overall pick, the Mariners had a second first-rounder and grabbed Franklin at No. 27. He has hit throughout the minors, including leading the low Class A Midwest League with 23 homers as a 19-year-old in 2010. After missing the first few games this year because of an illness, he has been on fire, batting .377 with the best on-base percentage (.500) in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League and a .565 slugging percentage. A switch-hitter who's much better from the left side of the plate, Franklin projects to hit for solid average with perhaps 15 homers per year (though Safeco Field won't help in that regard). He's a solid runner with the instincts to steal a few bases.
What he can do: Once again, Seattle is below .500 and having trouble scoring runs. The Mariners could bolster their lineup by putting Franklin at shortstop, where he's an adequate defender, in place of Robert Andino and Brendan Ryan. Eventually, Franklin figures to move to second base with Ackley likely shifting to the outfield.

[h=3]4. Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: 5)[/h]Season totals: .313/.360/.475, 3 HR, 12 RBIs, 3 SB in 22 games at Triple-A Memphis.
Update: Taveras is showing why he's the best pure hitter in the minors, recording four multihit games over the past week, going 10-for-23 (.435) during that span. Jon Jay's bat has yet to get going in St. Louis, but the Cardinals still are in first place and seem comfortable with their status quo.
What he can do: Taveras controls the strike zone so well that he's the best prospect bet to immediately produce (for a high average with solid power) once he gets the call. But that chance might not come unless Jay, Matt Holliday or Carlos Beltran gets hurt.

[h=3]5. Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Last week's rank: 7)[/h]Season totals: 2-1 record, 2.31 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 19 K's in 23 1/3 IP (five starts) at Triple-A Indianapolis.
Update: Cole is coming off his best start of the season, working seven innings and allowing just one run Saturday. Yet he still isn't dominating despite having the best arsenal in the minors (upper-90s four-seam fastball, mid-90s two-seamer, wipeout slider, solid changeup). That's because his command has been below-average all year, a trend that continued with four walks and five strikeouts in his last outing.
What he can do: The Pirates finally pulled the plug on Jonathan Sanchez, but they gave his rotation spot to Jeanmar Gomez while waiting for Francisco Liriano and Charlie Morton to return. Pittsburgh has legitimate playoff aspirations, which will only be enhanced if Cole can tame his front-of-the-rotation stuff. He'll be the Bucs' best big league starter as soon as he does.


[h=3]6. Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers (Last week's rank: 4)[/h]Season totals: .232/.351/.402, 2 HR, 13 RBIs, 3 SB in 22 games at Triple-A Round Rock.
Update: Profar's bat has begun to heat up with two homers in his past four games, but Mitch Moreland is starting to hit in Texas, as well, and Ian Kinsler still has shown no inclination to move off second base. While Profar has the physical tools to fill the Rangers' void in center field, he has yet to play in the outfield as a pro.
What he can do: Baseball's best prospect is the rare middle infielder who can hit for average and reach double figures in homers and steals, but he currently has no clear path to play regularly in the majors.


[h=3]7. Dee Gordon, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers (Last week: unranked)[/h]Season totals: .306/.393/.418, 0 HR, 11 RBIs, 13 SB in 24 games at Triple-A Albuquerque.
Update: The Dodgers have started having Gordon take ground balls at second base during infield in Triple-A. Mark Ellis could go on the disabled list with a strained right quadriceps soon, and Gordon has been performing well, leading the PCL in steals. He has hit just .260/.299/.315 in 143 big league games during the previous two seasons, but he still managed to swipe 56 bases during that time, making him a valuable commodity in roto setups.
What he can do: Ellis is 36 and he could keep breaking down, giving Gordon enough playing time to steal 30 or so bases. Gordon won't be an asset in any other fantasy categories, though he could hit for a decent average. He's also the Dodgers' best in-house candidate for a long-term second baseman.


[h=3]8. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: 6)[/h]Season totals: .204/.275/.301, 0 HR, 7 RBIs, 16 SB in 24 games at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: He might be the fastest player in baseball, but Hamilton is proving the adage that you can't steal first base. He hasn't had a multihit game since April 8, and he has gone just 11-for-77 (.143) since. What he can do: Hamilton isn't ready to hit major league pitching, yet he remains firmly in the middle of our list because of his stolen-base potential. Even if he didn't crack the Reds' lineup until August, he still could provide 25 steals.


[h=3]9. Kyle Gibson, SP, Minnesota Twins (Last week's rank: 9)[/h]Season totals: 1-3 record, 3.33 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 26 K's in 27 IP (five starts) at Triple-A Rochester.
Update: On Saturday, Gibson won his first minor league game since 2011 -- he had Tommy John surgery that September -- by tossing 6 2/3 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts. The Twins are hanging around .500 despite having several holes in their rotation, so Mike Pelfrey (2-3, 7.66) and Vance Worley (0-4, 7.22) should start looking over their shoulders.
What he can do: Gibson could be Minnesota's best starter as soon as he cracks the rotation. His deep repertoire and polish should make his transition to the majors easier than for most rookie pitchers.


[h=3]10. Grant Green, 2B, Oakland Athletics (Last week: unranked)[/h]Season totals: .321/.397/.500, 4 HR, 16 RBIs, 3 SB at Triple-A Sacramento.
Update: The No. 13 overall pick in the 2009 draft and the recipient of a $2.75 million bonus, Green hasn't rushed through the minors as quickly as projected, but he's on the verge of making his major league debut. The A's are getting little production out of their second basemen, led by Eric Sogard, while Green is hitting for average and power and controlling the strike zone (11 BB, 17 K's) better than ever.
What he can do: If Oakland makes Green a starter, he could bat .275 with 10-12 homers the rest of the way, which could help some fantasy teams. He has played six positions during his minor league career, giving him utility value if the A's decide to use him in that role.


Dropped out (last week's rank): Allen Webster, RHP, Boston Red Sox (8); Nick Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers (10).
Called up (last week's rank): Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies (2).

 

[HacheMan]

Bits: Outlook for rookies Gattis, Grimm

Eric Karabell

With so many interesting first-year players to watch this season, it would have been nearly impossible to predict that the top rookies for the month of April, as chosen by MLB, would be Atlanta Braves catcher Evan Gattis and Texas Rangers right-hander Justin Grimm. However, that's what happened, as each thrived and ended up with the hardware. The issue for fantasy owners is whether to project continued success for these surprises, because while I'm not overly optimistic, each case is compelling.
<OFFER></OFFER>

Gattis hit a pair of singles in Thursday's 3-1 loss to Dan Haren and the Washington Nationals, but his time as starting catcher seems to be waning as Brian McCann and his troublesome right shoulder should be active by early next week. The Gattis story has been a nice uplifting one, as the high school power hitter has overcome drug problems and depression, and after traveling the United States trying to find himself, returned to baseball, hit like a champ in the minors and ultimately found himself mashing six home runs for the first-place Braves in April.

A healthy McCann, however, will trump the Gattis story, and it's not like the 26-year-old is hitting .350 with a 1.000 OPS. Gattis is hitting .253, his .542 slugging percentage is going to regress when his unsustainable fly ball rate (54 percent) falls and pitchers have already seemed to figure out that he's not a patient hitter and isn't taking walks. Gattis is hitting .225 with two walks over the past two weeks. Last week, I ranked the top 20 catchers, and Gattis wound up at No. 19. He's certainly relevant in multi-catcher leagues, but I already feel like I need to alter that and push him outside the top 20. McCann will play a lot more. Gattis probably will end up in Triple-A at some point.


Grimm also got his chance to perform due to the misfortune of others, specifically when lefty Matt Harrison was having back troubles and ended up needing surgery for a herniated disk. Unlike McCann, however, Harrison doesn't figure to return to the active roster anytime soon. A notable prospect, Grimm did not produce eye-popping numbers in the minor leagues, and I thought his Thursday outing against the Chicago White Sox was an important one. After all, Grimm had faced the Seattle Mariners twice and the Minnesota Twins. I think you see my point.

Then again, the White Sox have scored fewer runs than those teams. Grimm had command problems early, but cruised into the sixth inning with a three-hit shutout. Then came a pair of singles and Tyler Flowers cleared the bases with a long home run. Still, Grimm fanned nine for the second time in three outings. He's one of the most-added pitchers in ESPN leagues, and while I don't entirely trust him yet as a big strikeout guy -- more of a ground-baller -- he could make 30 starts, keep his ERA in the low 4s and crack the top-75 starting pitchers or so. I'm just not there yet, so be wary.

Who will be the top rookies for fantasy purposes in May? Among the hitters, I like San Diego Padres second baseman Jedd Gyorko over Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado and St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Matt Adams. Gyorko hit his first home run on the first day of May, hopefully a harbinger, and I like the fact that he takes his walks and doesn't have to worry about playing time, which is an issue for Adams. I think we'll finally see Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Wil Myers in late-May, and perhaps Miami Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich as well. For the pitchers, it's tough to go against Cincinnati Reds lefty Tony Cingrani. Perhaps he's still headed to the minors when Johnny Cueto is healthy, but that seems foolish. Just be cautious in trading for the guy, as Cingrani's role is not secure, and certainly on occasion deception guys eventually struggle have to make adjustments. Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu seems legit. Marlins right-hander Jose Fernandez has certainly cooled off. I've now got St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Shelby Miller taking home top rookie honors in the NL this season, so I'll go with him in May as well.

Box score bits (NL): Washington Nationals right-hander Dan Haren shut down the Braves over eight innings Thursday, permitting one run. He wasn't overpowering, but he's clearly been better his past few outings. His next outing against powerful Detroit should also be telling. … Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon singled twice and walked, but with Ryan Zimmerman expected back for Friday's game, Rendon is headed back to the minors. … Chicago Cubs lefty Travis Wood deserved a better fate: He took a shutout into the eighth inning against the San Diego Padres, but three of his inherited runners scored (naturally) and he lost. Wood boasts a 2.50 ERA so far, and is showing no signs of being a fluke. … Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Michael Young singled and doubled Thursday. Prior to Thursday, his last 20 hits were singles, all since April 10. He might hit .300, but expect fewer than 10 home runs. … St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Allen Craig doubled in a pair of runs, and he's on pace for 116. He's also on pace for zero home runs. I think it's obvious to buy low here and expect strong numbers. … The Colorado Rockies signed right-hander Roy Oswalt to a minor-league deal. However, Oswalt showed little in 2012, and Coors Field isn't the place to show it. No need to stash him in 10- or 12-team mixed leagues.

Box score bits (AL): Houston Astros catcher Jason Castro continues to bat third, and he's actually doing a decent job. Castro homered Thursday, his third of the season, and he's hitting .277 and slugging .447. One can do worse in a multi-catcher mixed format. … Chicago White Sox right-hander Jake Peavy was a late scratch for Thursday's start with a sore back, and while he's scheduled to start Sunday, don't bet on it. Hector Santiago filled in and performed well at Texas, allowing one run in 5 1/3 innings. Look for him to get more chances. … Don't look for Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Josh Johnson for the next few weeks, at least. He was placed on the DL Thursday, and one-time ace lefty Ricky Romero was called up to start Friday. Perhaps Romero, who struggled in March and was demoted to Single-A, where he made only one start, will outduel Felix Hernandez and his Seattle Mariners, but there's no way I'd tempt fate.

 

[HacheMan]

Monday injury cheat sheet: May 6

Stephania Bell

Every Monday in this space, we'll provide updates on a variety of players to help you make your weekly lineup decisions. We'll specifically try to hit the players who are day-to-day, have just gone on the DL or are ready to return, so that you can better decide whether you can count on them or not.
All projected return timelines should be considered fluid.
[h=3]Hitters[/h]
Brian McCann, C, Atlanta Braves (opened season on DL, expected to return May 6): McCann has been on the radar of many fantasy owners looking forward to his season debut. It appears that day has arrived. According to news reports, manager Fredi Gonzalez says McCann will be active and with the team Monday when the Braves open a series in Cincinnati. McCann underwent surgery to repair the labrum in his right (throwing) shoulder in October and has been working his way back since. Although he has been hitting throughout the spring, the slower component of his return was throwing. McCann says he is now making the necessary throws, telling reporters this week, "The way I'm throwing now is basically the way I was throwing before I got hurt." While that is all good news as far as performance expectations, the Braves have indicated that McCann would not return to an everyday role immediately. Fantasy owners should keep tabs on the Braves' daily lineups for the next few weeks to check McCann's status.

Hanley Ramirez, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers (placed on DL May 4, timetable uncertain): No sooner did Ramirez rejoin his team than he departed again, this time with a strained left hamstring that required him to be helped off the field. After wasting no time proving his surgically repaired thumb was a nonissue, as evidenced by him going yard in his season debut, Ramirez injured his lower half running the bases Friday night. Difficulty putting weight on it reflected the severity of the injury. Manager Don Mattingly did not shy away from the likelihood Ramirez would miss more than the minimum stay, telling reporters, "It's going to be a while." In fact, Mattingly referenced Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp's injury of last year. Kemp, who was injured at virtually this same time of year, returned after a minimal DL stint only to reinjure his hamstring two days later. He then went back on the DL for more than a month.

Interestingly, Ramirez had not been sidelined for extended time with a left hamstring strain previously; however, he did have a 2011 DL stint for sciatica and numbness in his left leg associated with a lower back problem. It is not unusual clinically to see hamstring strains on the same side as previous sciatic episodes; whether they are directly or indirectly related -- or completely unrelated -- is often difficult to determine. The bottom line is that Ramirez will not be rushed, but as is always the case with hamstring injuries, until he returns successfully without a flare-up, there will be reason for concern about the potential for recurrence.

[h=3]Pitchers[/h]Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (DTD): Halladay has admitted to experiencing shoulder discomfort and will be traveling to Los Angeles for a consultation with Dr. Lewis Yocum. According to ESPN's Jayson Stark, Halladay began feeling discomfort in the shoulder the morning after his April 24 start. Halladay said the soreness "just kind of progressed over the last two weeks or so." Now they will try to get to the bottom of what exactly is causing this soreness. When speaking with reporters Sunday, Halladay also indicated this was the first time he had experienced this particular ailment, suggesting it was not the same sensation he had last year when he was diagnosed with a latissimus dorsi strain. The team has not yet confirmed a move to the DL, but it seems inevitable. At age 35, with the accumulated pitching mileage on his throwing shoulder, there was reason to be concerned heading into this season that Halladay's body would start showing signs it was unable to keep up with the physical demands of another baseball year. It is likely he will be shut down from throwing for a period of time; hopefully after his visit to the West Coast, we will learn more.

 

[HacheMan]

Roy Halladay's ownership set to plummet

Eric Karabell

Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Roy Halladay began Sunday owned in 100 percent of ESPN standard leagues, but that number is going to drop precipitously in the coming days. Halladay owners trusted him Sunday against the awful Miami Marlins, despite the fact he has been erratic this season and was obliterated earlier this week by the Cleveland Indians. After all, Halladay wouldn't need to be at his best to pitch against that lineup, or so goes the theory. The Marlins entered Sunday hitting .224 as a team, alone in baseball in averaging fewer than three runs per game.

Unfortunately, Sunday's results, both during and after the game, have changed the story quite a bit. After Halladay was embarrassed by an awful, Double-A lineup for nine runs in 2 1/3 innings, suffering his second consecutive 14-2 blasting, fantasy owners can't simply expect the former Cy Young Award winner to just "fix" things. The Phillies can't pretend it was just a bad day, because this was more than that. And now, after Halladay finally and mercifully admitted his right shoulder has been hurting for weeks, we can assume a disabled list stint is pending, and you can feel fine about sending Halladay to your free-agent lists in 10- and 12-team mixed leagues.

<OFFER></OFFER>I'd still use my DL slot on him in those formats if it's available, but as I wrote last week when valuable Oakland Athletics outfielder Coco Crisp was injured and sent to the sidelines for a few weeks, it's tough to hold on to injured players who aren't sure things in shallow leagues, and it goes double for starting pitchers because there's terrific depth. In many leagues, we get only one DL slot and short benches. Placing Halladay there is probably not your smartest use of the slot. Many have asked about ranking the DL-eligible players to see where Crisp and Halladay, for example, slot in, and I do that later in this blog entry. Halladay owners won't like it.

As for Halladay's Sunday performance, it wasn't painful only for him. The guy who was fantasy's No. 1 pitcher in 2012 average live drafts -- man, doesn't that seem like forever ago? -- hit Justin Ruggiano twice with pitches that he couldn't control, and threw behind another hitter, and it wasn't a statement pitch out of anger. He just had no command, notably on his cutter. Rookie shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria -- not a good hitter at all -- entered play batting .186 with a .543 OPS, and by the fourth inning he had knocked in seven runs on a homer and triple. Clearly something was wrong, and at least now we know a physical issue is in play.


Why bother holding on to Halladay in deeper leagues, or stashing in shallower ones? Don't expect the old Halladay ever again, but if healthy he can be useful. Shoulders are complicated. As of now, we don't know if Halladay is out for May or for months. Could he return to top-60 starting pitcher relevancy in 2013? Yes, I believe he could. A few weeks ago, he was pitching fine. Where do I rank him the rest of the way, as of May 6? Outside my top 60, and it's not close. It's time to move on. As for how the disappointing Phillies proceed, it's possible lefty prospect Adam Morgan, who pitched in Triple-A Sunday, is added to the 40-man roster and promoted. He's not worth a look in 10- or 12-team leagues yet. Neither is right-hander Tyler Cloyd, who wasn't nearly as good as his minor league stats a year ago.

Here is a ranking of the players who have DL status in ESPN leagues. In other words, if they don't have the asterisk, they're not listed here. In standard leagues, you get one DL spot. If I have three of these players, this is my order of whom I would keep, assuming I couldn't trade. Again, the truth hurts and yes, I clearly favor hitters over pitchers, which we all should. As of this writing, Halladay is not on the DL, but I would place him behind these 15 players and into the "best of the rest" section, right after Josh Johnson. Yep, I would. If I missed someone notable (not Francisco Cervelli!), post in the Conversation section below and I will chime in there! And I removed Brian McCann from the list, because he could be activated from the DL by the time you read this.

1. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins: Hit fine the weekend before the hamstring injury, and speed isn't his game. Still capable of 30 home runs in four months.

2. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves: Should return this month with no ill effects from his appendectomy, and he'll hit and run.

3. Michael Bourn, OF, Cleveland Indians: Injury was to finger, not legs. For the rest of the season, he could lead majors in stolen bases.

4. Jose Reyes, SS, Toronto Blue Jays: Could be out a while longer, but a middle infielder like this can make a huge impact because of whom he replaces on your team.

5. Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Yankees: He'll hit for power and contribute in steals, even though nobody enjoys the batting average.

6. Hanley Ramirez, SS/3B, Los Angeles Dodgers: We don't yet know how much time he is expected to miss (hamstring), as it happened over the weekend (a month?). Again, middle infield, big enough bat, invest.

7. Zack Greinke, SP, Dodgers: Was pitching well when he got hurt, and could return this month.

8. Jered Weaver, SP, Los Angeles Angels: Was not pitching all that well when he got hurt, though it's his non-pitching elbow. I'm just saying I had prior concerns.

9. Aaron Hill, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks: Could be another three weeks before he's back, but again, he's worth waiting for considering most middle-infield situations.

10. Coco Crisp, OF, Oakland Athletics: Serious regression was coming in regard to his power numbers, but still, it's not a serious injury and he always runs.

11. Dayan Viciedo, OF, Chicago White Sox: Could return this week from oblique injury. He hit 25 homers last year and can do so again.

12. Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds: Return has been delayed, but he's a top-20 pitcher when healthy.

13. Corey Hart, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: Should be another month, but will hit for enough power to be owned everywhere.

14. Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees: Should be at least another month, but unlike Hart and his knee problems, Teixeira has a bad wrist. Scary.

15. Ryan Madson, RP, Angels: Could easily step into closer role right away. Could easily have setback on elbow any day, too.

Best of the rest: Neil Walker, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates; Adam Eaton, OF, Diamondbacks; Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Yankees; Josh Johnson, SP, Blue Jays; Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees; Kyuji Fujikawa, RP, Chicago Cubs; Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees; Peter Bourjos, OF, Angels; Chris Young, OF, Athletics; Matt Adams, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals; Cameron Maybin, OF, San Diego Padres.

 

[HacheMan]

Consistency Ratings: Through May 5

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Perhaps no fact exemplifies the week-to-week volatility of baseball statistics than this: Only nine players earned their place in your lineup in both Rotisserie and points-based leagues in each of the first five weeks of the 2013 season.

You read that right, nine players. Nine. And Justin Upton, Yu Darvish and Chris Davis aren't among them.

That's not to toss cold water on these hot starters' efforts; they all rank among the top 10 performers for the 2013 season to date in both Rotisserie formats (as seen on our Player Rater) and points-based leagues. But when it comes to week-to-week consistency, each has exhibited a flaw, however small.

For Upton, it was his 3-for-20, zero-homer Week 5, which placed him outside the top 130 hitters on our Player Rater. Davis, meanwhile, was 4-for-18 without a home run in Week 5, also finishing outside of that range. Both hitters' poor performances the past week classified them as "Stiffs," by the criteria used in this column. As for Darvish, he barely eked out a quality start against the Los Angeles Angels in his lone Week 2 start. He wouldn't have ruined you had you started him, but there were at least 90 better pitchers you could've used.

These measures -- or the phrase "Stiffs" -- might sound familiar to those who follow our Consistency Ratings, a longtime fantasy football feature that was introduced for fantasy baseball for the first time in our 2013 Draft Kit. Beginning today, and continuing on the first Monday of every month (save for Labor Day in September), we'll calculate the current season's Consistency Ratings to date, to give you a sense of which players have been the most or least consistent from week to week.

Here's how the Consistency Ratings formula works: Using weekly statistics -- a "week" for these purposes equals one scoring period in ESPN's standard game, meaning "Week 1" ran from Sunday, March 31, through Sunday, April 7, despite that being an eight-day span -- we've graded players in Rotisserie leagues based upon how they scored that week on our Player Rater, or in points-based leagues based on the point total they accrued. For the latter, we used our standard-league points scoring system. For hitters, that's one point apiece per total base (1 for single, 2 for double, 3 for triple, 4 for home run), run scored, RBI, walk or stolen base, and minus-1 per caught stealing. For pitchers, that's one point per out recorded (or 3 per inning pitched) or strikeout, five points per win or save, minus-5 per loss, minus-2 per earned run and minus-1 per hit or walk allowed.

Now, here's how the grading system works:

A "Start": A player earns one of these in a given week by ranking on our Player Rater or scoring a point total that would've made the maximum cutoff for active roster spots at his position in a standard ESPN league. This means that he would've been one of the 10 best catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen or shortstops (one starter apiece at each times 10 teams), the 30 best corner or middle infielders (three starters apiece at each times 10 teams), the 130 best hitters overall (13 active hitters times 10 teams, meaning, at worst, he'd have filled your utility spot) or the 90 best pitchers (nine active pitchers times 10 teams).

A "Stud": This works similarly to a "Start," except that the standards are greater. The player had to be one of the top three catchers, top 10 corner or middle infielders, top 20 outfielders, top 25 hitters overall or top 30 pitchers.

A "Stiff": A player is graded this if his Player Rater ranking or point total for the week not only missed the "Start" cutoff, but missed it by such a wide margin that he'd have severely damaged your team's performance. We double the "Start" cutoffs to score this: This means the player finished outside the top 20 catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen or shortstops, the top 60 corner or middle infielders, the top 260 hitters overall or the top 180 pitchers.

These categories are tabulated, then converted into a "Consistency Rating" formula, which represents the percentage of the season's weeks in which the player was worth the "Start." This docks a player for missed time -- these missed weeks are tallied in a category called "Sat" -- and to answer the inevitable follow-up question as to why we dock for missed time: If the player is of no service to you during his missed time, why should he be credited with anything positive for it?

You can see the full 2013 Consistency Ratings in the chart at column's end. Before we get to that, however, let's tackle some of the more curious findings:
Catchers stink. No position -- except perhaps first base -- can be judged "rich" in terms of volume of consistent weekly performers, but when looking at the catcher position, the spot's inconsistency stands out. No catcher has earned his starting status in each of the season's five weeks, and every meaningful backstop has been a Stiff -- that's outside the top 20 at his position -- in both Rotisserie and points-based leagues in at least one of those five weeks.

Perhaps that makes sense if you consider the top-ranked catcher on our Player Rater, John Buck, places 35th; every other position has a player rated higher (relief pitcher Sergio Romo is the next-lowest, at No. 27). In points-based scoring, meanwhile, only Buck (47th, with 108 points) and Mike Napoli (22nd, with 124) rank among the top 50 players overall.

Now, it's worth pointing out that only eight catchers managed a Consistency Rating of 60 percent or greater in 2012, with Buster Posey (79.2%) and Joe Mauer (79.2%) the only ones to top 70 percent. (Those are points-based ratings; Rotisserie Consistency Ratings are unavailable for 2012.) Couple that with the fact that players like Napoli and Buck currently pace the position, and volatility is clearly the name of the game behind the plate. Fantasy owners have generally been impatient with slow-starting catchers like Miguel Montero, Salvador Perez and Jonathan Lucroy. Keep in mind, however, that swapping out your catcher doesn't guarantee you any greater weekly reliability. Frankly, you might find yourself struggling through the same inconsistency, except with a catcher with less of a track record.

What is it about Pittsburgh Pirates closers? Heck, what is it about the Pirates as a team in the season's early weeks? Thus far, the team is on pace for a 51-42 first half, which if it holds up would give them a third consecutive season with a winning record at the All-Star break.


Closer Jason Grilli, like Joel Hanrahan before him, is a major benefactor; he is tied for the major league lead in saves and has actually ranked among the top 30 pitchers on our Player Rater in four of the five weeks to date. Remember, Hanrahan managed 49 saves, a 1.82 ERA and 1.01 WHIP combined before the All-Star break in 2011 and 2012. At the same time, let's not ignore that Hanrahan saved only 27 games with a 2.83 ERA and 1.35 WHIP after the break in those two years.

So is Grilli's success a matter of his own skills improvements, the Pirates' hot start leading to a greater number of save chances, or both? You have to ask yourself, what was behind Hanrahan's success? Then ask yourself, were the Pirates' late-season struggles in 2011 and 2012 more a product of Hanrahan's issues, or might Hanrahan's so-so numbers have been the result of the team's decline? They're all difficult to answer, but Grilli -- and his team -- thus far is following a similar pattern.

Rocky Mountain high? Not necessarily. Fantasy owners are familiar with the boost in offensive numbers that Colorado's Coors Field presents; one might assume that Colorado Rockies hitters might be more inconsistent than most, simply because they'd be less apt to have good weeks when they played entirely on the road. That hasn't been the case so far in 2013, as six Rockies hitters have a Consistency Rating of 80 percent or greater through five weeks. In addition, Rockies hitters are responsible for 15 "Stud" weeks, an average of three per week.

Breaking down the weekly schedules, consider that the Rockies spent exactly one week apiece entirely at Coors (Week 3) and entirely on the road (Week 2). In Week 2, two Rockies rated "Studs" in Rotisserie formats (Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler), while seven were "Starts" (Gonzalez and Fowler, as well as Wilin Rosario, Josh Rutledge, Todd Helton, Michael Cuddyer and Troy Tulowitzki). In Week 3, to compare, three Rockies rated "Studs" (Gonzalez, Tulowitzki and Rutledge), but only five rated as "Starts" (those three plus Cuddyer and Eric Young Jr.).

Using team hitting splits, the Rockies have averaged 5.73 runs per game with .295/.354/.493 triple-slash rates in 17 games at Coors thus far. On the road, meanwhile, they have averaged 4.88 runs per game with .276/.350/.451 rates. Granted, that's a noticeable difference, but those road numbers are hardly poor, rating them among the 10 best road teams in baseball. It looks as if this team is a lot more trustworthy on the road this year than anyone anticipated.


[h=3]Consistency Ratings: 2013 Weeks 1-5[/h]
Players are initially ranked in order of their Consistency Rating in Rotisserie leagues (Roto%), calculated as the percentage of the season's five weeks -- not weeks the player played, but total weeks on the MLB schedule -- in which his Player Rater standing registered a "Start" score. All categories are sortable both ascending and descending; just click on the headers to sort. Players must have a Consistency Rating of 50 percent or greater in either Rotisserie or points-based formats in order to be included on the chart.

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Player	<CENTER>Team</CENTER>	<CENTER>Roto%</CENTER>	<CENTER>Pts%</CENTER>	<CENTER>FPTS</CENTER>	<CENTER>Player Rater</CENTER>	<CENTER>Start</CENTER>	<CENTER>Stud</CENTER>	<CENTER>Stiff</CENTER>	<CENTER>Sat</CENTER>
Clay Buchholz	Bos	100.0%	100.0%	158	6	5	2	0	0
Miguel Cabrera	Det	100.0%	100.0%	155	1	5	3	0	0
David Wright	NYM	100.0%	100.0%	125	9	5	1	0	0
Madison Bumgarner	SF	100.0%	100.0%	125	41	5	2	0	0
Adam Jones	Bal	100.0%	100.0%	124	10	5	3	0	0
Michael Cuddyer	Col	100.0%	100.0%	124	13	5	3	0	0
Ian Kinsler	Tex	100.0%	100.0%	118	17	5	3	0	0
Ryan Braun	Mil	100.0%	100.0%	111	33	5	2	0	0
Matt Holliday	StL	100.0%	100.0%	109	64	5	2	0	0
Yu Darvish	Tex	100.0%	80.0%	161	5	4	4	0	0
Dexter Fowler	Col	100.0%	80.0%	116	22	4	3	0	0
Angel Pagan	SF	100.0%	80.0%	93	91	4	1	0	0
Carl Crawford	LAD	100.0%	80.0%	92	45	4	2	1	0
Alcides Escobar	KC	100.0%	80.0%	88	56	4	1	0	0
Hisashi Iwakuma	Sea	80.0%	100.0%	136	30	5	3	0	0
Shin-Soo Choo	Cin	80.0%	100.0%	125	31	5	3	0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	Col	80.0%	100.0%	118	26	5	3	0	0
Paul Goldschmidt	Ari	80.0%	100.0%	118	34	5	2	0	0
Anthony Rizzo	ChC	80.0%	100.0%	113	37	5	1	0	0
Austin Jackson	Det	80.0%	100.0%	111	39	5	1	0	0
Pablo Sandoval	SF	80.0%	100.0%	105	55	5	0	0	0
Jean Segura	Mil	80.0%	100.0%	101	16	5	1	0	0
Felix Hernandez	Sea	80.0%	80.0%	149	11	4	4	1	0
Chris Davis	Bal	80.0%	80.0%	138	8	4	3	0	0
Justin Upton	Atl	80.0%	80.0%	137	4	4	3	0	0
Carlos Gonzalez	Col	80.0%	80.0%	130	7	4	4	1	0
Jordan Zimmermann	Wsh	80.0%	80.0%	130	23	4	3	0	0
Manny Machado	Bal	80.0%	80.0%	127	20	4	2	0	0
Robinson Cano	NYY	80.0%	80.0%	124	24	4	3	0	0
Mike Napoli	Bos	80.0%	80.0%	124	52	4	3	1	0
Bryce Harper	Wsh	80.0%	80.0%	122	29	4	4	1	0
Matt Moore	TB	80.0%	80.0%	122	36	4	2	1	0
Mark Reynolds	Cle	80.0%	80.0%	119	18	4	3	1	0
A.J. Burnett	Pit	80.0%	80.0%	117	53	4	2	0	0
Mat Latos	Cin	80.0%	80.0%	117	69	4	2	0	0
Coco Crisp	Oak	80.0%	80.0%	115	14	4	3	1	0
Patrick Corbin	Ari	80.0%	80.0%	113	61	4	2	0	0
Lance Lynn	StL	80.0%	80.0%	110	59	4	3	1	0
John Buck	NYM	80.0%	80.0%	108	35	4	2	1	0
Brandon Phillips	Cin	80.0%	80.0%	108	62	4	3	0	0
Jason Grilli	Pit	80.0%	80.0%	107	40	4	1	0	0
Nelson Cruz	Tex	80.0%	80.0%	107	57	4	2	0	0
Chase Utley	Phi	80.0%	80.0%	105	46	4	2	0	0
Torii Hunter	Det	80.0%	80.0%	103	60	4	1	0	0
Alex Gordon	KC	80.0%	80.0%	100	73	4	2	1	0
Jaime Garcia	StL	80.0%	80.0%	100	99	4	2	1	0
Andrew McCutchen	Pit	80.0%	80.0%	97	54	4	1	1	0
Dustin Pedroia	Bos	80.0%	80.0%	97	66	4	2	0	0
CC Sabathia	NYY	80.0%	80.0%	96	98	4	1	1	0
Travis Hafner	NYY	80.0%	80.0%	95	80	4	0	0	0
Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	80.0%	80.0%	95	114	4	2	1	0
Ian Desmond	Wsh	80.0%	80.0%	94	96	4	1	0	0
Albert Pujols	LAA	80.0%	80.0%	94	186	4	0	1	0
Wilin Rosario	Col	80.0%	80.0%	93	42	4	0	1	0
Vernon Wells	NYY	80.0%	80.0%	93	72	4	2	1	0
Daniel Nava	Bos	80.0%	80.0%	93	107	4	1	0	0
Kyle Kendrick	Phi	80.0%	80.0%	93	117	4	2	1	0
Ryan Dempster	Bos	80.0%	80.0%	90	118	4	1	1	0
Yadier Molina	StL	80.0%	80.0%	88	112	4	0	1	0
Howie Kendrick	LAA	80.0%	80.0%	86	111	4	1	0	0
Jason Hammel	Bal	80.0%	80.0%	76	164	4	0	1	0
Justin Verlander	Det	80.0%	60.0%	132	32	3	2	0	0
Nate McLouth	Bal	80.0%	60.0%	106	12	3	1	0	0
Carlos Santana	Cle	80.0%	60.0%	106	44	3	3	2	0
Jim Johnson	Bal	80.0%	60.0%	93	47	3	1	0	0
Everth Cabrera	SD	80.0%	60.0%	89	94	3	3	1	0
Addison Reed	CWS	80.0%	60.0%	89	75	3	1	0	0
Josh Rutledge	Col	80.0%	60.0%	88	103	3	1	0	0
A.J. Pollock	Ari	80.0%	60.0%	83	79	3	1	1	0
Tom Wilhelmsen	Sea	80.0%	60.0%	82	93	3	1	0	0
Joe Nathan	Tex	80.0%	60.0%	76	108	3	0	1	0
Jim Henderson	Mil	80.0%	60.0%	75	90	3	1	1	0
Rafael Soriano	Wsh	80.0%	40.0%	83	100	2	1	0	0
Craig Kimbrel	Atl	80.0%	40.0%	82	102	2	1	1	0
Joey Votto	Cin	60.0%	100.0%	121	65	5	2	0	0
Mark Trumbo	LAA	60.0%	100.0%	119	43	5	1	0	0
Prince Fielder	Det	60.0%	80.0%	137	15	4	2	0	0
Mike Trout	LAA	60.0%	80.0%	126	28	4	3	0	0
Adam Wainwright	StL	60.0%	80.0%	122	49	4	2	0	0
Jon Lester	Bos	60.0%	80.0%	108	81	4	1	0	0
Edwin Encarnacion	Tor	60.0%	80.0%	107	68	4	1	0	0
Hunter Pence	SF	60.0%	80.0%	103	50	4	1	0	0
Jeremy Guthrie	KC	60.0%	80.0%	103	85	4	1	0	0
Alex Rios	CWS	60.0%	80.0%	101	38	4	2	0	0
Buster Posey	SF	60.0%	80.0%	98	150	4	2	1	0
Kyle Seager	Sea	60.0%	80.0%	98	152	4	1	0	0
Ben Zobrist	TB	60.0%	80.0%	97	126	4	2	0	0
Yonder Alonso	SD	60.0%	80.0%	94	134	4	1	1	0
Matt Carpenter	StL	60.0%	80.0%	94	167	4	2	1	0
Alejandro De Aza	CWS	60.0%	80.0%	93	83	4	1	0	0
James Shields	KC	60.0%	80.0%	93	116	4	1	0	0
Desmond Jennings	TB	60.0%	80.0%	92	97	4	1	0	0
Allen Craig	StL	60.0%	80.0%	92	147	4	1	1	0
Jose Bautista	Tor	60.0%	80.0%	91	143	4	1	0	0
Nick Markakis	Bal	60.0%	80.0%	91	173	4	0	0	0
Brett Gardner	NYY	60.0%	80.0%	89	119	4	1	0	0
Jay Bruce	Cin	60.0%	80.0%	89	249	4	0	0	0
Carlos Villanueva	ChC	60.0%	80.0%	87	135	4	1	1	0
Jake Peavy	CWS	60.0%	80.0%	85	127	4	1	0	0
Alexi Ogando	Tex	60.0%	80.0%	76	155	4	2	1	0
Jayson Werth	Wsh	60.0%	80.0%	75	160	4	0	1	0
Matt Harvey	NYM	60.0%	60.0%	140	21	3	2	0	0
Starling Marte	Pit	60.0%	60.0%	120	2	3	3	0	0
Max Scherzer	Det	60.0%	60.0%	119	51	3	2	1	0
Josh Donaldson	Oak	60.0%	60.0%	113	63	3	2	1	0
Carlos Gomez	Mil	60.0%	60.0%	112	3	3	3	0	0
Sergio Romo	SF	60.0%	60.0%	106	27	3	3	1	0
Jacoby Ellsbury	Bos	60.0%	60.0%	104	19	3	2	0	0
Shelby Miller	StL	60.0%	60.0%	103	58	3	2	0	0
Doug Fister	Det	60.0%	60.0%	102	86	3	1	0	0
Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	60.0%	60.0%	97	71	3	2	1	0
Ervin Santana	KC	60.0%	60.0%	96	84	3	1	0	0
Adrian Beltre	Tex	60.0%	60.0%	96	141	3	1	0	0
Justin Ruggiano	Mia	60.0%	60.0%	95	74	3	2	1	0
Brandon Moss	Oak	60.0%	60.0%	95	101	3	1	0	0
Gerardo Parra	Ari	60.0%	60.0%	95	104	3	2	0	0
Jose Altuve	Hou	60.0%	60.0%	94	121	3	2	0	0
Carlos Beltran	StL	60.0%	60.0%	93	77	3	2	0	0
Alex Cobb	TB	60.0%	60.0%	93	95	3	2	1	0
Yuniesky Betancourt	Mil	60.0%	60.0%	92	78	3	3	1	0
Ryan Howard	Phi	60.0%	60.0%	91	144	3	1	1	0
Brandon Crawford	SF	60.0%	60.0%	91	165	3	3	1	0
Mike Minor	Atl	60.0%	60.0%	90	92	3	1	0	0
Adrian Gonzalez	LAD	60.0%	60.0%	90	132	3	1	1	0
Tim Hudson	Atl	60.0%	60.0%	89	128	3	2	2	0
Daniel Murphy	NYM	60.0%	60.0%	88	169	3	2	1	0
Mariano Rivera	NYY	60.0%	60.0%	85	89	3	2	0	0
Starlin Castro	ChC	60.0%	60.0%	85	158	3	1	0	0
David DeJesus	ChC	60.0%	60.0%	85	175	3	1	0	0
Carlos Pena	Hou	60.0%	60.0%	85	298	3	1	2	0
Aroldis Chapman	Cin	60.0%	60.0%	84	67	3	1	2	0
Jon Jay	StL	60.0%	60.0%	84	170	3	1	0	0
Chris Sale	CWS	60.0%	60.0%	82	139	3	1	1	0
Norichika Aoki	Mil	60.0%	60.0%	82	151	3	1	0	0
Rickie Weeks	Mil	60.0%	60.0%	80	258	3	1	1	0
Paul Maholm	Atl	60.0%	60.0%	79	125	3	1	2	0
James Loney	TB	60.0%	60.0%	79	130	3	1	1	0
J.J. Hardy	Bal	60.0%	60.0%	79	268	3	0	0	0
Domonic Brown	Phi	60.0%	60.0%	78	219	3	0	1	0
Stephen Strasburg	Wsh	60.0%	60.0%	77	161	3	1	0	0
Matt Wieters	Bal	60.0%	60.0%	77	282	3	0	2	0
Elvis Andrus	Tex	60.0%	60.0%	76	174	3	1	1	0
Rafael Betancourt	Col	60.0%	60.0%	75	109	3	0	1	0
Yoenis Cespedes	Oak	60.0%	60.0%	74	178	3	1	0	0
Zack Cozart	Cin	60.0%	60.0%	74	331	3	1	0	0
Jhoulys Chacin	Col	60.0%	60.0%	73	146	3	2	1	0
Andrew Bailey	Bos	60.0%	60.0%	73	129	3	1	1	0
Drew Smyly	Det	60.0%	60.0%	73	136	3	1	2	0
Trevor Cahill	Ari	60.0%	60.0%	72	180	3	0	2	0
Matt Joyce	TB	60.0%	60.0%	72	196	3	1	1	0
Kelly Johnson	TB	60.0%	60.0%	71	145	3	0	1	0
Colby Rasmus	Tor	60.0%	60.0%	69	322	3	0	1	0
Jose Fernandez	Mia	60.0%	60.0%	63	197	3	1	2	0
Chase Headley	SD	60.0%	60.0%	61	239	3	0	0	0
Andy Pettitte	NYY	60.0%	60.0%	60	230	3	0	1	0
Eric Chavez	Ari	60.0%	60.0%	58	278	3	0	2	0
Mark Ellis	LAD	60.0%	60.0%	57	194	3	0	0	0
Chris Denorfia	SD	60.0%	40.0%	82	162	2	0	0	0
Chris Young	Oak	60.0%	40.0%	78	177	2	2	1	0
Casey Janssen	Tor	60.0%	40.0%	71	123	2	0	0	0
Gio Gonzalez	Wsh	60.0%	40.0%	67	203	2	1	2	0
Homer Bailey	Cin	60.0%	40.0%	65	199	2	1	2	0
A.J. Pierzynski	Tex	60.0%	40.0%	62	285	2	0	2	0
Brandon League	LAD	60.0%	40.0%	50	206	2	0	2	0
Ernesto Frieri	LAA	60.0%	40.0%	49	240	2	0	2	0
Juan Pierre	Mia	60.0%	20.0%	62	120	1	0	1	0
Jordany Valdespin	NYM	60.0%	0.0%	52	208	0	0	1	0
Craig Gentry	Tex	60.0%	0.0%	51	234	0	0	1	0
Evan Longoria	TB	40.0%	80.0%	106	70	4	2	0	0
Lucas Duda	NYM	40.0%	80.0%	90	191	4	2	0	0
Billy Butler	KC	40.0%	80.0%	84	212	4	0	1	0
Kendrys Morales	Sea	40.0%	80.0%	83	287	4	0	1	0
Jimmy Rollins	Phi	40.0%	80.0%	74	312	4	0	1	0
Cole Hamels	Phi	40.0%	80.0%	64	218	4	1	1	0
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	40.0%	60.0%	141	25	3	2	1	0
Anibal Sanchez	Det	40.0%	60.0%	116	48	3	2	1	0
Jed Lowrie	Oak	40.0%	60.0%	108	106	3	1	0	0
Derek Holland	Tex	40.0%	60.0%	99	88	3	2	0	0
Lance Berkman	Tex	40.0%	60.0%	92	185	3	1	0	0
Seth Smith	Oak	40.0%	60.0%	86	181	3	1	0	0
Lorenzo Cain	KC	40.0%	60.0%	82	76	3	2	0	0
Martin Prado	Ari	40.0%	60.0%	82	290	3	1	1	0
Jhonny Peralta	Det	40.0%	60.0%	80	183	3	1	0	0
Nate Schierholtz	ChC	40.0%	60.0%	79	122	3	1	0	0
Alfonso Soriano	ChC	40.0%	60.0%	75	172	3	1	2	0
Denard Span	Wsh	40.0%	60.0%	75	189	3	0	1	0
Michael Brantley	Cle	40.0%	60.0%	74	281	3	0	1	0
Michael Young	Phi	40.0%	60.0%	70	315	3	0	2	0
Jake Westbrook	StL	40.0%	60.0%	69	195	3	1	2	0
Brandon Belt	SF	40.0%	60.0%	67	284	3	0	2	0
Wade Miley	Ari	40.0%	60.0%	66	241	3	0	1	0
Adam LaRoche	Wsh	40.0%	60.0%	62	540	3	0	2	0
Phil Hughes	NYY	40.0%	60.0%	59	264	3	2	2	0
Francisco Cervelli	NYY	40.0%	60.0%	54	326	3	0	1	0
Josh Willingham	Min	20.0%	80.0%	84	207	4	1	0	0
Dan Uggla	Atl	20.0%	80.0%	77	372	4	0	0	0
Kevin Slowey	Mia	20.0%	60.0%	105	82	3	1	1	0
Mitch Moreland	Tex	20.0%	60.0%	78	224	3	0	1	0
Jedd Gyorko	SD	20.0%	60.0%	77	325	3	1	1	0
Ruben Tejada	NYM	20.0%	60.0%	67	393	3	0	0	0
Justin Wilson	Pit	20.0%	60.0%	62	176	3	0	1	0
Ike Davis	NYM	20.0%	60.0%	61	512	3	0	2	0
Bud Norris	Hou	20.0%	60.0%	51	269	3	1	1	0
Tommy Hanson	LAA	20.0%	60.0%	39	392	3	0	1	0

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[HacheMan]

What to do with slumping Jays options?

Eric Karabell

There is certainly no shortage of disappointing Toronto Blue Jays players, as the team enters the first full week of May in last place in the American League East and with a mere 11 victories in 32 games. The lone team with a worse run differential is the Double-A team known as the Houston Astros. But fantasy owners invested in many a Blue Jay in March, and in myriad cases are running away. Should they? Here are numerous Blue Jays being dropped in ESPN standard 10-team leagues and my thoughts after a relatively positive Sunday in which they scored 10 runs and won.
Melky Cabrera: One of the most dropped outfielders, which is understandable, Cabrera hit his first home run Sunday, a solo shot off lefty Joe Saunders. He also scored three runs. He hadn't even scored a run in 10 games! Ever the optimist but also wary of one month's work dictating proof, I haven't dropped Cabrera yet in leagues, and still think he can hit .300 with 12 home runs, 12 steals and 80 runs, so I'm being more patient.


<OFFER>Brandon Morrow: The right-hander won his first game Sunday in his seventh outing, permitting three hits and two runs in eight innings, and most important, fanning eight Seattle Mariners. Sure, it wasn't the Detroit Tigers, and he walked five, but you own Morrow for the whiffs. Earlier in the week, he fanned seven Boston Red Sox. I'm buying a 175-strikeout season, though with an ERA over 4.00, and leaving him among my top-50 starting pitchers.</OFFER>

Emilio Bonifacio: His start has been brutal, and I cannot fathom why a guy known mainly for his speed and stolen base prowess didn't even attempt a steal in April. Not one. Bonifacio stole 30 bases in 64 games in 2012. Bonifacio, who did add second base eligibility to his outfield status a few weeks ago, didn't reach base via hit Sunday, but he did steal two bases. I don't know why he hasn't been running, but he's certainly capable of making a big difference in fantasy if this is the start of something. I'm being patient here too, but mainly because of the second base eligibility.

J.P. Arencibia: Only John Buck has more home runs as a catcher, but Arencibia last hit one two weeks ago. With an incredible 42 strikeouts against two walks, it was eminently predictable that his batting average would plummet, and it has. Even with two hits Sunday, he's hitting .243. It can drop 40 more points. He's not among my top-10 catchers, and it's not close. But can he swat 25 home runs? Sure he can.

Josh Johnson: He hit the DL Friday with triceps inflammation, necessitating the recall of lefty and former ace Ricky Romero (don't go near him in fantasy, by the way). Sure, in 10- and 12-team leagues, I'd let the former Miami Marlins right-hander go, but there's strikeout potential here when healthy. He did make 31 starts last year. This appears to be a short-term injury. Wait in deeper formats, because a top-50 starter lurks.

R.A. Dickey: And finally, the 2012 NL Cy Young Award winner has dropped below the 100 percent owned threshold after Saturday's miserable outing. I think it's a mistake to cut him in 10-team formats, though. Dickey allowed five home runs in 13 innings this past week, but otherwise wasn't bad. He had command of the knuckleball. The MRI on his ailing back/neck was clean. I'm investing, even in 10-team leagues.

Box score bits (AL): Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez saw his streak of three multihit games end Sunday, but he did draw two walks. He entered Sunday with one walk all year. That's a great sign he's turning things around, though his .281 average certainly isn't bad. … Texas Rangers first baseman Mitch Moreland had a nice weekend against the Red Sox. He had five hits the first two games, then homered Sunday. He's safe to start in fantasy with his .282 batting average and with prospect Jurickson Profar playing in the minors. … Baltimore Orioles slugger Chris Davis hurt a knee Friday and was supposed to miss a few games, but he started Sunday. He's safe for activation this week. … I'm not buying Tampa Bay Rays singles-hitting first baseman James Loney batting cleanup Sunday, but the guy is hitting .398 in 83 at-bats. (Lead him off!) The Rays already rehabilitated Fernando Rodney. Why not Loney? Just don't expect any power. … Oakland Athletics catcher/first baseman Luke Montz was called up last week when Coco Crisp hit the DL, and the power hitter has been handling designated hitter duties. On Sunday, he hit his first big league home run since 2008. Montz, 29, is no prospect, but the Athletics are scheduled to face a few lefties this week, so he should get some at-bats.


Box score bits (NL): Lost in the Roy Halladay disaster Sunday was Marlins right-hander Kevin Slowey tossing yet another gem, winning his first game since 2010. With him having a 1.81 ERA in seven starts, you should add him while he's hot. … Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado enjoyed his weekend, taking David Price deep for a grand slam Saturday, and homering again Sunday, but it's interesting that the rookie batted second Sunday. It might not stick, not like Orioles third baseman Manny Machado, but he'd score more runs there. … The Atlanta Braves will welcome back catcher Brian McCann on Monday night. Evan Gattis had two more hits Sunday but is about to see a decrease in playing time. … New York Mets outfielder Lucas Duda knocked in a run Sunday, giving him 10 this season. With six home runs, and a .411 OBP fueled by the highest rate of pitches per plate appearance in baseball, he should have 25. Get him if he's available. … Mets lefty Jonathon Niese gave up seven runs on seven hits and six walks Sunday. I loved him on draft day, but considering he has one of the worst strikeout rates in the majors, I fear something is wrong. Let him go in 10-team formats. … Yuniesky Betancourt played some left field late in Sunday's blowout loss. MVP Ryan Braun need not worry about his job. … Fantasy owners keep whining about St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Allen Craig, but he blasted his first home run Saturday, and knocked in four more runs Sunday. He has 25 RBIs and is fine. Buy low.