MLB Fantasy News 2013

HacheMan · Apr 10, 2013

Weaver out 4-6 weeks with fractured elbow

Stephania Bell

When initial X-rays came back negative on Los Angeles Angels ace Jered Weaver's left elbow Sunday night, we still prepared for the possibility that he could miss a start. It turns out he will miss several.

Weaver's awkward landing on his left forearm when he fell while dodging a line drive did in fact result in a fracture. Weaver suffered a non-displaced fracture of the radial head. These fractures are often difficult to see on an X-ray, and it was not until Weaver underwent further imaging tests that the severity of the injury was discovered.

The radius is one of two bones in the forearm, running from the thumb side of the wrist up toward the elbow. The head of the radius is the flattened end that sits adjacent to the humerus. A fall onto the arm with the elbow somewhat flexed (which is what happened with Weaver) can jam the radius against the humerus, resulting in a fracture.
The fact it is non-displaced (meaning bony ends are in alignment) is a plus, as it will not require surgery to heal. Weaver is fortunate he did not dislocate the elbow or end up with a more complicated fracture, either of which could have resulted in a far more protracted absence.
Weaver was placed on the 15-day DL Tuesday, but the team has indicated he is expected to miss four to six weeks. It's possible, however, that if all goes well, he could return on the early side of that projection.

The primary goal for Weaver will be to restore the natural range of motion to the left arm. Early motion is the key to a successful recovery here. He will need to restore his natural pitching motion, and even though this is his non-throwing arm, it does more than dangle at his side. Any disruption to his standard throwing motion could result in compensations, which would then threaten the health of his right arm.
Additionally, he needs to be able to field defensive plays from the mound and not hesitate to use the left arm to protect himself, should that be necessary.

HacheMan · Apr 10, 2013

Motte could need Tommy John surgery

Stephania Bell

Unfortunately, the pattern is becoming all too familiar. A pitcher experiences elbow ____ (insert pain, stiffness or tightness here) and is shut down for a period of _____ (insert two, four or six) weeks. During that time he is not allowed to throw but focuses instead on arm-strengthening exercises. In the course of ongoing evaluation, if an injury to the ulnar collateral ligament is _____ (insert strongly suspected or confirmed), the player is given the opportunity to see how he responds to the episode of conservative care. If there is no improvement, the ultimate fate is reconstruction of the ligament, otherwise known as Tommy John surgery.

Just as it has been for numerous other pitchers, this is St. Louis Cardinals closer Jason Motte's narrative. After experiencing stiffness in his right elbow in March, Motte was shut down with what was originally described as a flexor tendon strain. He began an exercise program and was placed on the DL to start the season. After a follow-up evaluation Tuesday, reports emerged that Motte had not been cleared to throw. According to Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com, Motte has a confirmed ligament tear, and if he does not improve, he'll undergo Tommy John surgery. Cardinals GM John Mozeliak explained the rationale of setting a deadline to see if Motte is able to return to throwing by early May. "Rather than drag this thing out all summer, we put a soft deadline on it to find out," Mozeliak said.
The time frame for return is well-established now at approximately 9-12 months following this procedure, although there is always the potential of extending beyond that range. The Cardinals have seen other pitchers on their staff undergo the procedure in the spring and return by the following spring -- most recently Adam Wainwright -- so there is an encouraging example for Motte in-house. While there is still an outside chance he could show enough improvement functionally to allow him the opportunity to return, it remains just that: an outside chance.

HacheMan · Apr 10, 2013

Impact of diminished velocity

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Diminished fastball velocity is not a death sentence.

Oh, you might disagree if you're a Roy Halladay owner, having watched him surrender a 14.73 ERA, .353 batting average and three home runs in his first two regular-season starts, following a spring training in which he had a 6.06 ERA, .323 BAA and three homers allowed in six turns. In those two regular-season outings, he has averaged 89.3 mph with his fastball, cutter and sinker combined; he averaged 91.5 mph with those pitches in 2010-11, when he won the National League's Cy Young award (2010) and finished the runner-up (2011).

The danger of the Halladay lesson is latching onto a singular aspect of his struggles, which ties to a statistic much more readily available today than, say, five years ago. Velocity readings have become all the rage in baseball -- and therefore fantasy baseball -- and with them comes the risk of misinterpretation.

This is the time of year in which fantasy owners are most apt to overreact, seeking something -- anything -- to explain their pitchers' early struggles. In some cases, velocity readings are relevant. But to make sweeping, league-wide judgments on the numbers is foolish; every case is individual and many such examples don't bear any worry whatsoever. As is, the league-wide numbers illustrate that average fastball velocities tend to be lower in April:

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<center>Year</center>	<center>Apr</center>	<center>May</center>	<center>June</center>	<center>July</center>	<center>Aug</center>	<center>Sept</center>
2010	90.8	91.0	91.2	91.2	91.3	91.3
2011	90.9	91.3	91.5	91.6	91.7	91.6
2012	91.3	91.6	91.7	91.6	91.6	91.7

For two individual examples why fantasy owners shouldn't rush to panic, let's flash back to 2012, when Felix Hernandez averaged 91.0 mph with his fastball during an April 7 start, his second of the year, after reported 89-90 mph numbers from his first start on March 28 in Japan (our pitch-tracking tool didn't include this game). Hernandez's owners were wild with panic over the readings, but after April 7, he managed 20 quality starts, a 2.98 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 210 strikeouts in his final 31 turns. Oh, and by the way, he averaged 92.1 mph in those 31 starts, more than 1 mph beneath his 2011 average (93.2).

Clayton Kershaw, meanwhile, suffered the largest season-opening-outing velocity drop of any top-50-ADP starting pitcher in the past three years, his 89.2 mph average last April 5 more than 4 mph slower than his 2011 average (93.3). There was, however, an explanation: He was battling the stomach flu, which ended up limiting him to three innings and 39 pitches. After that date, Kershaw managed 25 quality starts, a 2.56 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 226 K's in 32 games. His velocity was effectively back by start No. 2: He averaged 92.8 mph on April 10.

That's not to say that every pitcher follows the Hernandez or Kershaw path. To make this a more comprehensive study, consider that in the past three seasons, 47 starting pitchers selected among the top 50 at their position suffered an average fastball velocity drop of at least 1.0 mph in their first starts of the year (comparative to the prior year's average). Twenty-six of those starters finished within 20 spots of their ADPs -- 15 of them either matching or exceeding it.

(In the chart below, "Prev mph" represents the previous year's average fastball velocity, "ADP" is the player's average draft position in that season and "PR" is the individual's Player Rater finish in that season.)

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Player	<center>Year</center>	<center>Prev mph</center>	<center>ADP</center>	<center>Debut mph</center>	<center>Diff.</center>	<center>April mph</center>	<center>Diff.</center>	<center>PR</center>
Roy Halladay	2012	91.6	1	89.6	-2.0	89.9	-1.7	77
Justin Verlander	2012	94.8	2	93.1	-1.7	93.6	-1.2	2
Clayton Kershaw	2012	93.3	3	89.2	-4.1	92.8	-0.5	3
Felix Hernandez	2012	93.2	5	91.0	-2.2	91.3	-1.9	11
Tim Lincecum	2012	92.2	6	90.0	-2.2	89.7	-2.5	148
CC Sabathia	2012	93.7	8	92.1	-1.6	91.7	-2.0	16
Dan Haren	2012	89.9	9	88.4	-1.5	88.6	-1.3	78
Cole Hamels	2012	91.3	10	90.2	-1.1	90.8	-0.5	8
Jon Lester	2012	92.7	13	91.3	-1.4	92.4	-0.3	131
Yovani Gallardo	2012	92.6	15	91.3	-1.3	91.3	-1.3	31
Ricky Romero	2012	92.0	22	89.8	-2.2	91.1	-0.9	318
Mat Latos	2012	92.8	25	91.7	-1.1	92.4	-0.4	21
Josh Beckett	2012	92.9	27	90.8	-2.1	91.3	-1.6	129
Ubaldo Jimenez	2012	93.2	29	91.3	-1.9	91.8	-1.4	276
Tommy Hanson	2012	91.1	31	88.7	-2.4	89.7	-1.4	106
Anibal Sanchez	2012	91.6	41	90.0	-1.6	90.2	-1.4	59
Jaime Garcia	2012	89.8	44	88.7	-1.1	88.4	-1.4	116
Johnny Cueto	2012	93.1	45	91.2	-1.9	91.5	-1.6	10
Brandon Morrow	2012	93.7	49	91.8	-1.9	93.3	-0.4	40
Roy Halladay	2011	92.1	1	90.7	-1.4	91.2	-0.9	3
Cliff Lee	2011	91.2	4	90.0	-1.2	91.4	0.2	4
Jon Lester	2011	93.0	5	91.6	-1.4	92.1	-0.9	30
Justin Verlander	2011	95.3	8	94.0	-1.3	94.4	-0.9	1
Tommy Hanson	2011	92.6	11	90.9	-1.7	91.3	-1.3	48
Cole Hamels	2011	91.7	15	90.6	-1.1	91.6	-0.1	8
Max Scherzer	2011	93.0	24	91.5	-1.5	92.0	-1.0	72
Clay Buchholz	2011	93.9	27	92.3	-1.6	91.9	-2.0	103
Tim Hudson	2011	91.2	28	89.8	-1.4	89.9	-1.3	17
Ted Lilly	2011	86.7	30	84.6	-2.1	86.2	-0.5	41
Brett Anderson	2011	92.0	33	90.7	-1.3	90.6	-1.4	142
John Danks	2011	91.3	34	90.2	-1.1	91.1	-0.2	95
Colby Lewis	2011	89.9	35	87.4	-2.5	88.2	-1.7	53
Brett Myers	2011	89.4	42	86.9	-2.5	88.5	-0.9	93
Ricky Nolasco	2011	90.9	43	89.9	-1.0	90.2	-0.7	117
Josh Beckett	2011	93.2	44	91.9	-1.3	92.7	-0.5	11
Jhoulys Chacin	2011	91.0	45	90.0	-1.0	90.2	-0.8	62
Ryan Dempster	2011	90.9	47	89.6	-1.3	90.0	-0.9	115
Johan Santana	2010	90.5	10	89.5	-1.0	89.1	-1.4	24
Chris Carpenter	2010	92.8	12	91.4	-1.4	90.9	-1.9	18
Yovani Gallardo	2010	92.1	13	90.9	-1.2	91.5	-0.6	52
Javier Vazquez	2010	90.9	15	88.8	-2.1	88.7	-2.2	139
Josh Johnson	2010	94.9	17	93.5	-1.4	94.0	-0.9	12
Matt Cain	2010	92.5	19	91.3	-1.2	91.3	-1.2	15
Clayton Kershaw	2010	93.8	23	92.4	-1.4	92.8	-1.0	16
Max Scherzer	2010	93.6	35	92.6	-1.0	91.6	-2.0	36
Rich Harden	2010	91.9	38	90.5	-1.4	89.3	-2.6	277
Jonathan Sanchez	2010	91.6	44	89.6	-2.0	90.1	-1.5	22

Meanwhile, 18 relief pitchers selected among the top 20 at their position suffered an average fastball velocity drop of at least 1.0 mph during the first week of the year (fantasy's Week 1, compared to the prior year's average). Ten of these relievers finished within 15 spots of their ADPs -- three of them exceeding it.

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Player	<center>Year</center>	<center>Prev mph</center>	<center>ADP</center>	<center>Debut mph</center>	<center>Diff.</center>	<center>April mph</center>	<center>Diff.</center>	<center>PR</center>
Jonathan Papelbon	2012	94.8	3	93.7	-1.1	93.1	-1.7	8
Brian Wilson	2012	94.0	4	92.2	-1.8	92.2	-1.8	333
Joel Hanrahan	2012	97.0	9	95.7	-1.3	95.6	-1.4	15
Rafael Betancourt	2012	92.2	10	91.0	-1.2	91.1	-1.1	25
Huston Street	2012	90.1	17	88.5	-1.6	88.7	-1.4	24
Brian Wilson	2011	95.7	1	94.4	-1.3	94.5	-1.2	23
Heath Bell	2011	93.9	2	92.3	-1.6	93.2	-0.7	9
Joakim Soria	2011	91.7	4	89.2	-2.5	89.7	-2.0	38
Neftali Feliz	2011	96.2	5	94.3	-1.9	94.3	-1.9	22
Carlos Marmol	2011	94.1	6	91.5	-2.6	91.6	-2.5	32
Huston Street	2011	91.2	11	89.7	-1.5	89.4	-1.8	43
John Axford	2011	94.9	13	93.9	-1.0	94.2	-0.7	3
Chris Perez	2011	94.5	14	91.9	-2.6	92.3	-2.2	21
Francisco Cordero	2011	94.3	15	93.0	-1.3	92.5	-1.8	8
Jose Valverde	2011	95.1	16	92.9	-2.2	93.6	-1.5	6
Jonathan Broxton	2010	97.6	1	95.1	-2.5	95.3	-2.3	56
Brian Fuentes	2010	90.0	17	88.2	-1.8	88.6	-1.4	27
Frank Francisco	2010	93.4	20	91.5	-1.9	92.0	-1.4	94

Incidentally, to dig deeper, seven of the 65 pitchers above -- starters or relievers -- averaged at least 2.0 mph beneath their prior-year averages in both their first starts/first week of the year and for the month of April in total; yet three of those seven finished within 10 spots of their ADPs.

What all this tells us is that every pitcher's story is different, and each suffering a velocity drop must be examined individually. So let's do that today, addressing some of the more notable examples so far in 2013:

CC Sabathia, New York Yankees (92.2 mph average in 2012, 89.6 in 2013 debut): His 2.6 mph average fastball velocity drop during his first start raised many red flags for fantasy owners and analysts, but many of those people aren't considering the context. Sabathia, who was coming off October elbow surgery, was kept on a lighter schedule than usual this spring; his two starts and 10 innings pitched represented his second fewest of any spring training (he missed the 2005 exhibition season with an abdominal injury). He also historically exhibits lower velocity -- and poorer rotisserie stats -- in April than in future months; he averaged 92.6 mph in April 2010, 92.6 mph in April 2011 and 91.8 in April 2012, compared to 93.1 mph overall in those three years combined. I agree with colleague Eric Karabell's assessment of Sabathia's "struggles;" and any concern related to Sabathia's past workloads, offseason operation or 2012 velocity drop (92.2 mph) was already accounted for in my No. 17 ranking of him among starting pitchers.

Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers (94.2 mph average in 2012, 91.8 in 2013 debut): Push the panic button with Scherzer, who recorded 135 of his 231 strikeouts with his fastball last season, if you wish. I'll counter that he has shown a history of mediocre velocity in April -- he's in the above chart twice -- and in his career, he has a 4.86 ERA in April and May, compared to 3.43 from June through September. Scherzer's "velocity woes" could create quite a buying opportunity, even if they extend four or five starts into his season.

John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers (96.1 mph average in 2012, 94.1 in first week of 2013): The charts above do demonstrate that a velocity drop is a bit more disconcerting for a reliever than for a starter, especially if you account for the quick hook many managers have with closers. Axford's 2.0 mph decline is perhaps the most troubling, because he needed to start the year hot in order to recapture his manager's favor following a disappointing 2012. But in his case, it's not necessarily velocity that's at the root of the problem -- his location is just as problematic. Though sample sizes contribute to this number, Axford has left his fastball up in the zone 8 percent more often thus far in 2013. Location was an issue for him in 2012, as well, so there's every reason to believe his won't be an overnight fix.

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (94.1 mph average in 2012, 91.0 in 2013 debut): This isn't intended to inspire a panic, but the fact remains that Verlander's 91.0 mph average on April 1, followed by 91.4 mph on April 7, represented his lowest average fastball velocities in any start since 2009, the first season ESPN's pitch-tracking data was charted. And it'd be largely irrelevant if not for two things: One is that Verlander's annual fastball velocity was in a three-year pattern of decline, and the other is that he has amassed a major league-high 762 1/3 innings pitched (playoffs included) the past three seasons combined. In his defense, his numbers in those April 1 and 7 starts were fine -- 2.19 ERA and 1.22 WHIP -- but his performance bears watching in the coming weeks, being that there's not a substantial difference in value between a top-2 and top-10 fantasy starting pitcher.

Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers (93.9 mph average in 2012, 91.4 thus far in 2013): He's not going to get every call like Monday's game-ender, and any cause for alarm with his velocity drop is that it harkens memories of his early 2011, when he was fresh off Tommy John surgery. In the first two months of that season, Nathan was only 3-for-5 in save chances with a 7.63 ERA and 1.70 WHIP, his average fastball velocity 91.3 mph in those 17 appearances, before he returned to the disabled list with a flexor strain. Now 38, Nathan warrants more attention than in the past, though thus far his rotisserie stats have been fine and he faces little immediate competition for saves in the Texas Rangers' bullpen. No reason to panic.

Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers (91.7 mph average in 2012, 90.1 in 2013 debut): His radar-gun readings so far this year aren't the greatest concern; it's that they were down last season that put them under more scrutiny. Gallardo averaged 92.6 mph in 2011, 91.7 mph in the first half of 2012 and 91.6 mph in the second half of 2012. His strikeout rate has also slipped slightly in recent years; by percentage of batters faced it has gone from 25.7 percent (2009) to 24.9 percent (2010) to 23.9 percent (2011) to 23.7 percent (2012), and through two starts he has an 11.3 percent K rate this season. Of any of these pitchers, he most belongs on a "watch list."

And what of Halladay himself?

He's yet another example of a pitcher with whom radar-gun readings don't tell the entire story. Command is the larger concern: Halladay's walk rate -- calculated as a percentage of total batters faced -- has gone from 3.8 percent in 2011, to 5.6 percent in 2012, to 14.6 percent in his first two starts of 2013. (His walk rate was also 12.0 percent during spring training.) And Halladay's cutter, his signature pitch, has resulted in a .750 batting average and two home runs.

Halladay's struggles have extended to the point where he might need a DL stint to return close to his old form, and they're the reason for his precipitous drop in this week's rankings. There's every reason to panic with him.

But to again be clear: They are not only related to velocity, nor should velocity be hailed as the example by which all other pitchers should be judged in that department.

[h=3]Relief efforts[/h]
Three bullpens are either on the verge of or have already undergone a change at closer, including the aforementioned John Axford's own Milwaukee Brewers. Axford's struggles have opened the door for Jim Henderson, who, after a spring in which he posted a 5.68 ERA and 9:6 K-to-walk ratio, has managed four consecutive scoreless appearances including his first save on Monday.

Though Henderson's minor league track record -- 3.31 ERA, 2.15 K-per-walk ratio in Double-A; 4.01 ERA, 1.71 K-per-walk ratio in Triple-A -- makes him appear a mediocre choice to close, he at least deserves credit for a month-by-month improvement in terms of his command. He averaged 2.43 K's per walk last August and 3.83 K's per walk last September, has six K's compared to zero walks thus far in April, plus possesses one of the better sliders among current big league relievers. Henderson might yet possess the skills to hold this gig for several weeks -- if not the entire year -- meaning the Brewers can afford to shy from Axford, allowing him to work through his problems in middle relief.

The Kansas City Royals' closer role could be a wide-open one, after Greg Holland afforded four walks, four hits and four runs in his first three appearances of the season. Like some of the relievers discussed earlier, his average fastball velocity has also dropped comparative to 2012; he has averaged 94.9 mph, after averaging 96.0 mph last season. In Holland's defense, he began last season similarly poorly -- his ERA 11.37 last April -- but the Royals can't afford the luxury of patience with him in a high-profile role considering their multitude of alternatives.

Kelvin Herrera has the most natural closer "stuff," having averaged 4.10 K's per walk with a 1.92 ERA during his minor league career, then 3.67 K's per walk with a 2.35 ERA for the Royals last season. He notched the save on Sunday, and might receive the next chance, as Aaron Crow's appearance at closer on Monday was more a product of Herrera having previously worked back-to-back days. Fantasy owners might want to scoop up Herrera, who has top-10-closer stuff if granted the gig.

Finally, as hinted last week, the Chicago Cubs made the long-overdue move to demote Carlos Marmol from their closer role, installing Kyuji Fujikawa during the weekend. Though Fujikawa endured a rocky outing on Saturday, his track record of strong command in Japan makes him a worthy top-20 fantasy closer.

<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style>[h=4]TOP 150 PITCHERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. Starter- and reliever-specific rankings are in the "Pos Rnk" column, and can also be seen at this link: Position Rankings.

<center> Rnk </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Pos Rnk </center>	<center> Prev Rnk </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Pos Rnk </center>	<center> Prev Rnk </center>
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	SP1	1	76	Marco Estrada	Mil	SP57	90
2	Justin Verlander	Det	SP2	2	77	Trevor Cahill	Ari	SP58	74
3	Felix Hernandez	Sea	SP3	3	78	Kyle Lohse	Mil	SP59	77
4	Stephen Strasburg	Wsh	SP4	4	79	Kenley Jansen	LAD	RP20	76
5	David Price	TB	SP5	5	80	Jason Motte	StL	RP21	88
6	Matt Cain	SF	SP6	6	81	Matt Harrison	Tex	SP60	65
7	Cliff Lee	Phi	SP7	8	82	Greg Holland	KC	RP22	50
8	Cole Hamels	Phi	SP8	7	83	Grant Balfour	Oak	RP23	89
9	Madison Bumgarner	SF	SP9	10	84	Roy Halladay	Phi	SP61	52
10	Yu Darvish	Tex	SP10	14	85	Casey Janssen	Tor	RP24	91
11	Gio Gonzalez	Wsh	SP11	9	86	Edwin Jackson	ChC	SP62	78
12	Adam Wainwright	StL	SP12	13	87	Ryan Dempster	Bos	SP63	79
13	Johnny Cueto	Cin	SP13	15	88	Josh Beckett	LAD	SP64	87
14	Chris Sale	CWS	SP14	17	89	Bobby Parnell	NYM	RP25	93
15	Craig Kimbrel	Atl	RP1	16	90	Wandy Rodriguez	Pit	SP65	92
16	R.A. Dickey	Tor	SP15	12	91	Kyuji Fujikawa	ChC	RP26	99
17	Zack Greinke	LAD	SP16	21	92	Kelvin Herrera	KC	RP27	NR
18	Aroldis Chapman	Cin	RP2	19	93	Brandon McCarthy	Ari	SP66	84
19	Mat Latos	Cin	SP17	20	94	Phil Hughes	NYY	SP67	98
20	CC Sabathia	NYY	SP18	18	95	Wei-Yin Chen	Bal	SP68	96
21	Matt Moore	TB	SP19	23	96	Hisashi Iwakuma	Sea	SP69	105
22	Jordan Zimmermann	Wsh	SP20	22	97	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	SP70	112
23	Max Scherzer	Det	SP21	24	98	Jose Fernandez	Mia	SP71	147
24	Jon Lester	Bos	SP22	38	99	Steve Cishek	Mia	RP28	83
25	James Shields	KC	SP23	25	100	Brandon League	LAD	RP29	97
26	Rafael Soriano	Wsh	RP3	29	101	Jim Henderson	Mil	RP30	NR
27	Kris Medlen	Atl	SP24	27	102	Julio Teheran	Atl	SP72	94
28	Jonathan Papelbon	Phi	RP4	26	103	Jason Vargas	LAA	SP73	95
29	Josh Johnson	Tor	SP25	30	104	Shelby Miller	StL	SP74	103
30	Brandon Morrow	Tor	SP26	34	105	James McDonald	Pit	SP75	110
31	Jeff Samardzija	ChC	SP27	47	106	John Axford	Mil	RP31	54
32	Mariano Rivera	NYY	RP5	33	107	Jason Hammel	Bal	SP76	118
33	Ian Kennedy	Ari	SP28	37	108	Jonathan Broxton	Cin	RP32	104
34	Yovani Gallardo	Mil	SP29	28	109	Dillon Gee	NYM	SP77	109
35	Fernando Rodney	TB	RP6	31	110	Matt Garza	ChC	SP78	107
36	Jake Peavy	CWS	SP30	40	111	Mitchell Boggs	StL	RP33	100
37	Jonathon Niese	NYM	SP31	43	112	Vinnie Pestano	Cle	RP34	108
38	Joe Nathan	Tex	RP7	39	113	Chris Tillman	Bal	SP79	101
39	J.J. Putz	Ari	RP8	35	114	Bud Norris	Hou	SP80	113
40	Addison Reed	CWS	RP9	46	115	Ross Detwiler	Wsh	SP81	117
41	Anibal Sanchez	Det	SP32	41	116	Jose Veras	Hou	RP35	106
42	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	SP33	32	117	Joaquin Benoit	Det	RP36	136
43	Brett Anderson	Oak	SP34	45	118	Brandon Beachy	Atl	SP82	121
44	Matt Harvey	NYM	SP35	64	119	Drew Storen	Wsh	RP37	111
45	Doug Fister	Det	SP36	36	120	Ivan Nova	NYY	SP83	115
46	Homer Bailey	Cin	SP37	58	121	Justin Masterson	Cle	SP84	143
47	Alex Cobb	TB	SP38	66	122	Andy Pettitte	NYY	SP85	131
48	Jim Johnson	Bal	RP10	42	123	Gavin Floyd	CWS	SP86	127
49	Sergio Romo	SF	RP11	53	124	Ryan Cook	Oak	RP38	114
50	Tim Lincecum	SF	SP39	49	125	Jhoulys Chacin	Col	SP87	NR
51	Jarrod Parker	Oak	SP40	51	126	Sergio Santos	Tor	RP39	116
52	Mike Minor	Atl	SP41	60	127	Miguel Gonzalez	Bal	SP88	NR
53	Joel Hanrahan	Bos	RP12	57	128	Andrew Bailey	Bos	RP40	123
54	Lance Lynn	StL	SP42	48	129	Chad Billingsley	LAD	SP89	125
55	Jaime Garcia	StL	SP43	63	130	Patrick Corbin	Ari	SP90	134
56	Huston Street	SD	RP13	55	131	David Hernandez	Ari	RP41	135
57	Jered Weaver	LAA	SP44	11	132	Bartolo Colon	Oak	SP91	132
58	Dan Haren	Wsh	SP45	44	133	Tyler Clippard	Wsh	RP42	130
59	Rafael Betancourt	Col	RP14	61	134	Shaun Marcum	NYM	SP92	120
60	Jeremy Hellickson	TB	SP46	56	135	Ryan Madson	LAA	RP43	102
61	Derek Holland	Tex	SP47	59	136	Tommy Hanson	LAA	SP93	122
62	Tom Wilhelmsen	Sea	RP15	67	137	Sean Marshall	Cin	RP44	128
63	A.J. Burnett	Pit	SP48	72	138	Mark Buehrle	Tor	SP94	124
64	Paul Maholm	Atl	SP49	82	139	Ricky Nolasco	Mia	SP95	133
65	Glen Perkins	Min	RP16	73	140	Koji Uehara	Bos	RP45	141
66	Alexi Ogando	Tex	SP50	80	141	Luke Gregerson	SD	RP46	144
67	Clay Buchholz	Bos	SP51	85	142	A.J. Griffin	Oak	SP96	NR
68	Tim Hudson	Atl	SP52	69	143	Trevor Rosenthal	StL	RP47	NR
69	Tommy Milone	Oak	SP53	70	144	Felix Doubront	Bos	SP97	137
70	Chris Perez	Cle	RP17	71	145	Rick Porcello	Det	SP98	129
71	Ernesto Frieri	LAA	RP18	81	146	David Robertson	NYY	RP48	149
72	C.J. Wilson	LAA	SP54	62	147	Ervin Santana	KC	SP99	NR
73	Jason Grilli	Pit	RP19	86	148	J.A. Happ	Tor	SP100	NR
74	Ryan Vogelsong	SF	SP55	68	149	Sean Doolittle	Oak	RP49	146
75	Wade Miley	Ari	SP56	75	150	Wily Peralta	Mil	SP101	138

HacheMan · Apr 10, 2013

Impact of diminished velocity

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Diminished fastball velocity is not a death sentence.

Oh, you might disagree if you're a Roy Halladay owner, having watched him surrender a 14.73 ERA, .353 batting average and three home runs in his first two regular-season starts, following a spring training in which he had a 6.06 ERA, .323 BAA and three homers allowed in six turns. In those two regular-season outings, he has averaged 89.3 mph with his fastball, cutter and sinker combined; he averaged 91.5 mph with those pitches in 2010-11, when he won the National League's Cy Young award (2010) and finished the runner-up (2011).

The danger of the Halladay lesson is latching onto a singular aspect of his struggles, which ties to a statistic much more readily available today than, say, five years ago. Velocity readings have become all the rage in baseball -- and therefore fantasy baseball -- and with them comes the risk of misinterpretation.

This is the time of year in which fantasy owners are most apt to overreact, seeking something -- anything -- to explain their pitchers' early struggles. In some cases, velocity readings are relevant. But to make sweeping, league-wide judgments on the numbers is foolish; every case is individual and many such examples don't bear any worry whatsoever. As is, the league-wide numbers illustrate that average fastball velocities tend to be lower in April:

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<center>Year</center>	<center>Apr</center>	<center>May</center>	<center>June</center>	<center>July</center>	<center>Aug</center>	<center>Sept</center>
2010	90.8	91.0	91.2	91.2	91.3	91.3
2011	90.9	91.3	91.5	91.6	91.7	91.6
2012	91.3	91.6	91.7	91.6	91.6	91.7

For two individual examples why fantasy owners shouldn't rush to panic, let's flash back to 2012, when Felix Hernandez averaged 91.0 mph with his fastball during an April 7 start, his second of the year, after reported 89-90 mph numbers from his first start on March 28 in Japan (our pitch-tracking tool didn't include this game). Hernandez's owners were wild with panic over the readings, but after April 7, he managed 20 quality starts, a 2.98 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 210 strikeouts in his final 31 turns. Oh, and by the way, he averaged 92.1 mph in those 31 starts, more than 1 mph beneath his 2011 average (93.2).

Clayton Kershaw, meanwhile, suffered the largest season-opening-outing velocity drop of any top-50-ADP starting pitcher in the past three years, his 89.2 mph average last April 5 more than 4 mph slower than his 2011 average (93.3). There was, however, an explanation: He was battling the stomach flu, which ended up limiting him to three innings and 39 pitches. After that date, Kershaw managed 25 quality starts, a 2.56 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 226 K's in 32 games. His velocity was effectively back by start No. 2: He averaged 92.8 mph on April 10.

That's not to say that every pitcher follows the Hernandez or Kershaw path. To make this a more comprehensive study, consider that in the past three seasons, 47 starting pitchers selected among the top 50 at their position suffered an average fastball velocity drop of at least 1.0 mph in their first starts of the year (comparative to the prior year's average). Twenty-six of those starters finished within 20 spots of their ADPs -- 15 of them either matching or exceeding it.

(In the chart below, "Prev mph" represents the previous year's average fastball velocity, "ADP" is the player's average draft position in that season and "PR" is the individual's Player Rater finish in that season.)

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Player	<center>Year</center>	<center>Prev mph</center>	<center>ADP</center>	<center>Debut mph</center>	<center>Diff.</center>	<center>April mph</center>	<center>Diff.</center>	<center>PR</center>
Roy Halladay	2012	91.6	1	89.6	-2.0	89.9	-1.7	77
Justin Verlander	2012	94.8	2	93.1	-1.7	93.6	-1.2	2
Clayton Kershaw	2012	93.3	3	89.2	-4.1	92.8	-0.5	3
Felix Hernandez	2012	93.2	5	91.0	-2.2	91.3	-1.9	11
Tim Lincecum	2012	92.2	6	90.0	-2.2	89.7	-2.5	148
CC Sabathia	2012	93.7	8	92.1	-1.6	91.7	-2.0	16
Dan Haren	2012	89.9	9	88.4	-1.5	88.6	-1.3	78
Cole Hamels	2012	91.3	10	90.2	-1.1	90.8	-0.5	8
Jon Lester	2012	92.7	13	91.3	-1.4	92.4	-0.3	131
Yovani Gallardo	2012	92.6	15	91.3	-1.3	91.3	-1.3	31
Ricky Romero	2012	92.0	22	89.8	-2.2	91.1	-0.9	318
Mat Latos	2012	92.8	25	91.7	-1.1	92.4	-0.4	21
Josh Beckett	2012	92.9	27	90.8	-2.1	91.3	-1.6	129
Ubaldo Jimenez	2012	93.2	29	91.3	-1.9	91.8	-1.4	276
Tommy Hanson	2012	91.1	31	88.7	-2.4	89.7	-1.4	106
Anibal Sanchez	2012	91.6	41	90.0	-1.6	90.2	-1.4	59
Jaime Garcia	2012	89.8	44	88.7	-1.1	88.4	-1.4	116
Johnny Cueto	2012	93.1	45	91.2	-1.9	91.5	-1.6	10
Brandon Morrow	2012	93.7	49	91.8	-1.9	93.3	-0.4	40
Roy Halladay	2011	92.1	1	90.7	-1.4	91.2	-0.9	3
Cliff Lee	2011	91.2	4	90.0	-1.2	91.4	0.2	4
Jon Lester	2011	93.0	5	91.6	-1.4	92.1	-0.9	30
Justin Verlander	2011	95.3	8	94.0	-1.3	94.4	-0.9	1
Tommy Hanson	2011	92.6	11	90.9	-1.7	91.3	-1.3	48
Cole Hamels	2011	91.7	15	90.6	-1.1	91.6	-0.1	8
Max Scherzer	2011	93.0	24	91.5	-1.5	92.0	-1.0	72
Clay Buchholz	2011	93.9	27	92.3	-1.6	91.9	-2.0	103
Tim Hudson	2011	91.2	28	89.8	-1.4	89.9	-1.3	17
Ted Lilly	2011	86.7	30	84.6	-2.1	86.2	-0.5	41
Brett Anderson	2011	92.0	33	90.7	-1.3	90.6	-1.4	142
John Danks	2011	91.3	34	90.2	-1.1	91.1	-0.2	95
Colby Lewis	2011	89.9	35	87.4	-2.5	88.2	-1.7	53
Brett Myers	2011	89.4	42	86.9	-2.5	88.5	-0.9	93
Ricky Nolasco	2011	90.9	43	89.9	-1.0	90.2	-0.7	117
Josh Beckett	2011	93.2	44	91.9	-1.3	92.7	-0.5	11
Jhoulys Chacin	2011	91.0	45	90.0	-1.0	90.2	-0.8	62
Ryan Dempster	2011	90.9	47	89.6	-1.3	90.0	-0.9	115
Johan Santana	2010	90.5	10	89.5	-1.0	89.1	-1.4	24
Chris Carpenter	2010	92.8	12	91.4	-1.4	90.9	-1.9	18
Yovani Gallardo	2010	92.1	13	90.9	-1.2	91.5	-0.6	52
Javier Vazquez	2010	90.9	15	88.8	-2.1	88.7	-2.2	139
Josh Johnson	2010	94.9	17	93.5	-1.4	94.0	-0.9	12
Matt Cain	2010	92.5	19	91.3	-1.2	91.3	-1.2	15
Clayton Kershaw	2010	93.8	23	92.4	-1.4	92.8	-1.0	16
Max Scherzer	2010	93.6	35	92.6	-1.0	91.6	-2.0	36
Rich Harden	2010	91.9	38	90.5	-1.4	89.3	-2.6	277
Jonathan Sanchez	2010	91.6	44	89.6	-2.0	90.1	-1.5	22

Meanwhile, 18 relief pitchers selected among the top 20 at their position suffered an average fastball velocity drop of at least 1.0 mph during the first week of the year (fantasy's Week 1, compared to the prior year's average). Ten of these relievers finished within 15 spots of their ADPs -- three of them exceeding it.

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Player	<center>Year</center>	<center>Prev mph</center>	<center>ADP</center>	<center>Debut mph</center>	<center>Diff.</center>	<center>April mph</center>	<center>Diff.</center>	<center>PR</center>
Jonathan Papelbon	2012	94.8	3	93.7	-1.1	93.1	-1.7	8
Brian Wilson	2012	94.0	4	92.2	-1.8	92.2	-1.8	333
Joel Hanrahan	2012	97.0	9	95.7	-1.3	95.6	-1.4	15
Rafael Betancourt	2012	92.2	10	91.0	-1.2	91.1	-1.1	25
Huston Street	2012	90.1	17	88.5	-1.6	88.7	-1.4	24
Brian Wilson	2011	95.7	1	94.4	-1.3	94.5	-1.2	23
Heath Bell	2011	93.9	2	92.3	-1.6	93.2	-0.7	9
Joakim Soria	2011	91.7	4	89.2	-2.5	89.7	-2.0	38
Neftali Feliz	2011	96.2	5	94.3	-1.9	94.3	-1.9	22
Carlos Marmol	2011	94.1	6	91.5	-2.6	91.6	-2.5	32
Huston Street	2011	91.2	11	89.7	-1.5	89.4	-1.8	43
John Axford	2011	94.9	13	93.9	-1.0	94.2	-0.7	3
Chris Perez	2011	94.5	14	91.9	-2.6	92.3	-2.2	21
Francisco Cordero	2011	94.3	15	93.0	-1.3	92.5	-1.8	8
Jose Valverde	2011	95.1	16	92.9	-2.2	93.6	-1.5	6
Jonathan Broxton	2010	97.6	1	95.1	-2.5	95.3	-2.3	56
Brian Fuentes	2010	90.0	17	88.2	-1.8	88.6	-1.4	27
Frank Francisco	2010	93.4	20	91.5	-1.9	92.0	-1.4	94

Incidentally, to dig deeper, seven of the 65 pitchers above -- starters or relievers -- averaged at least 2.0 mph beneath their prior-year averages in both their first starts/first week of the year and for the month of April in total; yet three of those seven finished within 10 spots of their ADPs.

What all this tells us is that every pitcher's story is different, and each suffering a velocity drop must be examined individually. So let's do that today, addressing some of the more notable examples so far in 2013:

CC Sabathia, New York Yankees (92.2 mph average in 2012, 89.6 in 2013 debut): His 2.6 mph average fastball velocity drop during his first start raised many red flags for fantasy owners and analysts, but many of those people aren't considering the context. Sabathia, who was coming off October elbow surgery, was kept on a lighter schedule than usual this spring; his two starts and 10 innings pitched represented his second fewest of any spring training (he missed the 2005 exhibition season with an abdominal injury). He also historically exhibits lower velocity -- and poorer rotisserie stats -- in April than in future months; he averaged 92.6 mph in April 2010, 92.6 mph in April 2011 and 91.8 in April 2012, compared to 93.1 mph overall in those three years combined. I agree with colleague Eric Karabell's assessment of Sabathia's "struggles;" and any concern related to Sabathia's past workloads, offseason operation or 2012 velocity drop (92.2 mph) was already accounted for in my No. 17 ranking of him among starting pitchers.

Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers (94.2 mph average in 2012, 91.8 in 2013 debut): Push the panic button with Scherzer, who recorded 135 of his 231 strikeouts with his fastball last season, if you wish. I'll counter that he has shown a history of mediocre velocity in April -- he's in the above chart twice -- and in his career, he has a 4.86 ERA in April and May, compared to 3.43 from June through September. Scherzer's "velocity woes" could create quite a buying opportunity, even if they extend four or five starts into his season.

John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers (96.1 mph average in 2012, 94.1 in first week of 2013): The charts above do demonstrate that a velocity drop is a bit more disconcerting for a reliever than for a starter, especially if you account for the quick hook many managers have with closers. Axford's 2.0 mph decline is perhaps the most troubling, because he needed to start the year hot in order to recapture his manager's favor following a disappointing 2012. But in his case, it's not necessarily velocity that's at the root of the problem -- his location is just as problematic. Though sample sizes contribute to this number, Axford has left his fastball up in the zone 8 percent more often thus far in 2013. Location was an issue for him in 2012, as well, so there's every reason to believe his won't be an overnight fix.

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (94.1 mph average in 2012, 91.0 in 2013 debut): This isn't intended to inspire a panic, but the fact remains that Verlander's 91.0 mph average on April 1, followed by 91.4 mph on April 7, represented his lowest average fastball velocities in any start since 2009, the first season ESPN's pitch-tracking data was charted. And it'd be largely irrelevant if not for two things: One is that Verlander's annual fastball velocity was in a three-year pattern of decline, and the other is that he has amassed a major league-high 762 1/3 innings pitched (playoffs included) the past three seasons combined. In his defense, his numbers in those April 1 and 7 starts were fine -- 2.19 ERA and 1.22 WHIP -- but his performance bears watching in the coming weeks, being that there's not a substantial difference in value between a top-2 and top-10 fantasy starting pitcher.

Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers (93.9 mph average in 2012, 91.4 thus far in 2013): He's not going to get every call like Monday's game-ender, and any cause for alarm with his velocity drop is that it harkens memories of his early 2011, when he was fresh off Tommy John surgery. In the first two months of that season, Nathan was only 3-for-5 in save chances with a 7.63 ERA and 1.70 WHIP, his average fastball velocity 91.3 mph in those 17 appearances, before he returned to the disabled list with a flexor strain. Now 38, Nathan warrants more attention than in the past, though thus far his rotisserie stats have been fine and he faces little immediate competition for saves in the Texas Rangers' bullpen. No reason to panic.

Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers (91.7 mph average in 2012, 90.1 in 2013 debut): His radar-gun readings so far this year aren't the greatest concern; it's that they were down last season that put them under more scrutiny. Gallardo averaged 92.6 mph in 2011, 91.7 mph in the first half of 2012 and 91.6 mph in the second half of 2012. His strikeout rate has also slipped slightly in recent years; by percentage of batters faced it has gone from 25.7 percent (2009) to 24.9 percent (2010) to 23.9 percent (2011) to 23.7 percent (2012), and through two starts he has an 11.3 percent K rate this season. Of any of these pitchers, he most belongs on a "watch list."

And what of Halladay himself?

He's yet another example of a pitcher with whom radar-gun readings don't tell the entire story. Command is the larger concern: Halladay's walk rate -- calculated as a percentage of total batters faced -- has gone from 3.8 percent in 2011, to 5.6 percent in 2012, to 14.6 percent in his first two starts of 2013. (His walk rate was also 12.0 percent during spring training.) And Halladay's cutter, his signature pitch, has resulted in a .750 batting average and two home runs.

Halladay's struggles have extended to the point where he might need a DL stint to return close to his old form, and they're the reason for his precipitous drop in this week's rankings. There's every reason to panic with him.

But to again be clear: They are not only related to velocity, nor should velocity be hailed as the example by which all other pitchers should be judged in that department.

Relief efforts

Three bullpens are either on the verge of or have already undergone a change at closer, including the aforementioned John Axford's own Milwaukee Brewers. Axford's struggles have opened the door for Jim Henderson, who, after a spring in which he posted a 5.68 ERA and 9:6 K-to-walk ratio, has managed four consecutive scoreless appearances including his first save on Monday.

Though Henderson's minor league track record -- 3.31 ERA, 2.15 K-per-walk ratio in Double-A; 4.01 ERA, 1.71 K-per-walk ratio in Triple-A -- makes him appear a mediocre choice to close, he at least deserves credit for a month-by-month improvement in terms of his command. He averaged 2.43 K's per walk last August and 3.83 K's per walk last September, has six K's compared to zero walks thus far in April, plus possesses one of the better sliders among current big league relievers. Henderson might yet possess the skills to hold this gig for several weeks -- if not the entire year -- meaning the Brewers can afford to shy from Axford, allowing him to work through his problems in middle relief.

The Kansas City Royals' closer role could be a wide-open one, after Greg Holland afforded four walks, four hits and four runs in his first three appearances of the season. Like some of the relievers discussed earlier, his average fastball velocity has also dropped comparative to 2012; he has averaged 94.9 mph, after averaging 96.0 mph last season. In Holland's defense, he began last season similarly poorly -- his ERA 11.37 last April -- but the Royals can't afford the luxury of patience with him in a high-profile role considering their multitude of alternatives.

Kelvin Herrera has the most natural closer "stuff," having averaged 4.10 K's per walk with a 1.92 ERA during his minor league career, then 3.67 K's per walk with a 2.35 ERA for the Royals last season. He notched the save on Sunday, and might receive the next chance, as Aaron Crow's appearance at closer on Monday was more a product of Herrera having previously worked back-to-back days. Fantasy owners might want to scoop up Herrera, who has top-10-closer stuff if granted the gig.

Finally, as hinted last week, the Chicago Cubs made the long-overdue move to demote Carlos Marmol from their closer role, installing Kyuji Fujikawa during the weekend. Though Fujikawa endured a rocky outing on Saturday, his track record of strong command in Japan makes him a worthy top-20 fantasy closer.

<style type="text/css">.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</style>TOP 150 PITCHERS

Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 pitchers are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. Starter- and reliever-specific rankings are in the "Pos Rnk" column, and can also be seen at this link: Position Rankings.

<center> Rnk </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Pos Rnk </center>	<center> Prev Rnk </center>	Player	<center> Team </center>	<center> Pos Rnk </center>	<center> Prev Rnk </center>
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	SP1	1	76	Marco Estrada	Mil	SP57	90
2	Justin Verlander	Det	SP2	2	77	Trevor Cahill	Ari	SP58	74
3	Felix Hernandez	Sea	SP3	3	78	Kyle Lohse	Mil	SP59	77
4	Stephen Strasburg	Wsh	SP4	4	79	Kenley Jansen	LAD	RP20	76
5	David Price	TB	SP5	5	80	Jason Motte	StL	RP21	88
6	Matt Cain	SF	SP6	6	81	Matt Harrison	Tex	SP60	65
7	Cliff Lee	Phi	SP7	8	82	Greg Holland	KC	RP22	50
8	Cole Hamels	Phi	SP8	7	83	Grant Balfour	Oak	RP23	89
9	Madison Bumgarner	SF	SP9	10	84	Roy Halladay	Phi	SP61	52
10	Yu Darvish	Tex	SP10	14	85	Casey Janssen	Tor	RP24	91
11	Gio Gonzalez	Wsh	SP11	9	86	Edwin Jackson	ChC	SP62	78
12	Adam Wainwright	StL	SP12	13	87	Ryan Dempster	Bos	SP63	79
13	Johnny Cueto	Cin	SP13	15	88	Josh Beckett	LAD	SP64	87
14	Chris Sale	CWS	SP14	17	89	Bobby Parnell	NYM	RP25	93
15	Craig Kimbrel	Atl	RP1	16	90	Wandy Rodriguez	Pit	SP65	92
16	R.A. Dickey	Tor	SP15	12	91	Kyuji Fujikawa	ChC	RP26	99
17	Zack Greinke	LAD	SP16	21	92	Kelvin Herrera	KC	RP27	NR
18	Aroldis Chapman	Cin	RP2	19	93	Brandon McCarthy	Ari	SP66	84
19	Mat Latos	Cin	SP17	20	94	Phil Hughes	NYY	SP67	98
20	CC Sabathia	NYY	SP18	18	95	Wei-Yin Chen	Bal	SP68	96
21	Matt Moore	TB	SP19	23	96	Hisashi Iwakuma	Sea	SP69	105
22	Jordan Zimmermann	Wsh	SP20	22	97	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	SP70	112
23	Max Scherzer	Det	SP21	24	98	Jose Fernandez	Mia	SP71	147
24	Jon Lester	Bos	SP22	38	99	Steve Cishek	Mia	RP28	83
25	James Shields	KC	SP23	25	100	Brandon League	LAD	RP29	97
26	Rafael Soriano	Wsh	RP3	29	101	Jim Henderson	Mil	RP30	NR
27	Kris Medlen	Atl	SP24	27	102	Julio Teheran	Atl	SP72	94
28	Jonathan Papelbon	Phi	RP4	26	103	Jason Vargas	LAA	SP73	95
29	Josh Johnson	Tor	SP25	30	104	Shelby Miller	StL	SP74	103
30	Brandon Morrow	Tor	SP26	34	105	James McDonald	Pit	SP75	110
31	Jeff Samardzija	ChC	SP27	47	106	John Axford	Mil	RP31	54
32	Mariano Rivera	NYY	RP5	33	107	Jason Hammel	Bal	SP76	118
33	Ian Kennedy	Ari	SP28	37	108	Jonathan Broxton	Cin	RP32	104
34	Yovani Gallardo	Mil	SP29	28	109	Dillon Gee	NYM	SP77	109
35	Fernando Rodney	TB	RP6	31	110	Matt Garza	ChC	SP78	107
36	Jake Peavy	CWS	SP30	40	111	Mitchell Boggs	StL	RP33	100
37	Jonathon Niese	NYM	SP31	43	112	Vinnie Pestano	Cle	RP34	108
38	Joe Nathan	Tex	RP7	39	113	Chris Tillman	Bal	SP79	101
39	J.J. Putz	Ari	RP8	35	114	Bud Norris	Hou	SP80	113
40	Addison Reed	CWS	RP9	46	115	Ross Detwiler	Wsh	SP81	117
41	Anibal Sanchez	Det	SP32	41	116	Jose Veras	Hou	RP35	106
42	Hiroki Kuroda	NYY	SP33	32	117	Joaquin Benoit	Det	RP36	136
43	Brett Anderson	Oak	SP34	45	118	Brandon Beachy	Atl	SP82	121
44	Matt Harvey	NYM	SP35	64	119	Drew Storen	Wsh	RP37	111
45	Doug Fister	Det	SP36	36	120	Ivan Nova	NYY	SP83	115
46	Homer Bailey	Cin	SP37	58	121	Justin Masterson	Cle	SP84	143
47	Alex Cobb	TB	SP38	66	122	Andy Pettitte	NYY	SP85	131
48	Jim Johnson	Bal	RP10	42	123	Gavin Floyd	CWS	SP86	127
49	Sergio Romo	SF	RP11	53	124	Ryan Cook	Oak	RP38	114
50	Tim Lincecum	SF	SP39	49	125	Jhoulys Chacin	Col	SP87	NR
51	Jarrod Parker	Oak	SP40	51	126	Sergio Santos	Tor	RP39	116
52	Mike Minor	Atl	SP41	60	127	Miguel Gonzalez	Bal	SP88	NR
53	Joel Hanrahan	Bos	RP12	57	128	Andrew Bailey	Bos	RP40	123
54	Lance Lynn	StL	SP42	48	129	Chad Billingsley	LAD	SP89	125
55	Jaime Garcia	StL	SP43	63	130	Patrick Corbin	Ari	SP90	134
56	Huston Street	SD	RP13	55	131	David Hernandez	Ari	RP41	135
57	Jered Weaver	LAA	SP44	11	132	Bartolo Colon	Oak	SP91	132
58	Dan Haren	Wsh	SP45	44	133	Tyler Clippard	Wsh	RP42	130
59	Rafael Betancourt	Col	RP14	61	134	Shaun Marcum	NYM	SP92	120
60	Jeremy Hellickson	TB	SP46	56	135	Ryan Madson	LAA	RP43	102
61	Derek Holland	Tex	SP47	59	136	Tommy Hanson	LAA	SP93	122
62	Tom Wilhelmsen	Sea	RP15	67	137	Sean Marshall	Cin	RP44	128
63	A.J. Burnett	Pit	SP48	72	138	Mark Buehrle	Tor	SP94	124
64	Paul Maholm	Atl	SP49	82	139	Ricky Nolasco	Mia	SP95	133
65	Glen Perkins	Min	RP16	73	140	Koji Uehara	Bos	RP45	141
66	Alexi Ogando	Tex	SP50	80	141	Luke Gregerson	SD	RP46	144
67	Clay Buchholz	Bos	SP51	85	142	A.J. Griffin	Oak	SP96	NR
68	Tim Hudson	Atl	SP52	69	143	Trevor Rosenthal	StL	RP47	NR
69	Tommy Milone	Oak	SP53	70	144	Felix Doubront	Bos	SP97	137
70	Chris Perez	Cle	RP17	71	145	Rick Porcello	Det	SP98	129
71	Ernesto Frieri	LAA	RP18	81	146	David Robertson	NYY	RP48	149
72	C.J. Wilson	LAA	SP54	62	147	Ervin Santana	KC	SP99	NR
73	Jason Grilli	Pit	RP19	86	148	J.A. Happ	Tor	SP100	NR
74	Ryan Vogelsong	SF	SP55	68	149	Sean Doolittle	Oak	RP49	146
75	Wade Miley	Ari	SP56	75	150	Wily Peralta	Mil	SP101	138

HacheMan · Apr 10, 2013

Bits: Thoughts on LaRoche, Lincecum ...

Eric Karabell

Washington Nationals first baseman Adam LaRoche is a steal of a 15th-round choice in ESPN average live drafts, but he started the season hitless in 13 at-bats, then missed a few games because of back stiffness, and that apparently was enough for a handful of impatient fantasy owners to send him to the waiver wire. When LaRoche smacked his second home run of Tuesday night's 8-7 win over the Chicago White Sox, he was down from 100 percent ownership in ESPN standard mixed leagues to 94.2 percent. I had to laugh. It's one week!
<offer>LaRoche rarely seems to get the credit he deserves, but there was nothing fluky about his 33-homer, 100-RBI season from 2012. It wasn't the first time the underrated LaRoche delivered a similar season; he has five 25-homer campaigns (for four different franchises), and he's not a batting average liability. I thought numerous older yet power-laden first basemen fell too far in drafts this season (Paul Konerko, Ryan Howard, Lance Berkman). LaRoche is relatively safe, so check your league(s) and see whether he recently became available.

On Tuesday, LaRoche registered his first hits of the young season, taking right-hander Jake Peavy deep in the sixth inning and then doing the same to tough lefty Matt Thornton two frames later. The homer versus Thornton is especially telling, though it's worth noting that the lefty-swinging LaRoche didn't have trouble against lefties in 2012. He hit 11 home runs off them, a mark eclipsed by only three other left-handed hitters: Adam Dunn, Curtis Granderson and Josh Reddick. That trio combined to hit .216 against lefties (and not much better overall, for that matter), while LaRoche hit .268 against them and .271 overall. That matters. Owning Dunn can be painful. Owning LaRoche last season certainly was not.
My preseason take on LaRoche was that there was little reason to fear poor numbers from him based on his track record and the depth of offensive talent surrounding him in D.C. Plus, he might seem brittle because he missed most of 2011, but in the other seven seasons since 2005, he has averaged 147 games. I don't really know what he has to do to earn more respect in the fantasy world, but one would think his Tuesday performance will inch him back to that 100 percent ownership mark.
Box score bits (NL): Tim Lincecum and Josh Beckett faced off last week, and neither pitched well. On Tuesday, they continued that trend. Beckett's velocity remains down, and I don't trust him even as a matchups starter. How many better matchups will there be than the Padres in San Diego? Lincecum allowed five runs in the second inning at home to Colorado and really can't stop walking people (11 walks, 11 K's in 11 innings). These aren't bounce-back sleepers, folks. … The Atlanta Braves keep hitting rookie catcher Evan Gattis fourth, and he homered again Tuesday. Brian McCann (shoulder) might find himself in a platoon when he returns. I still wouldn't add Gattis in 10-team, one-catcher formats, though. He's not better than Jonathan Lucroy or Jesus Montero, the two most dropped catchers. … New York Mets right-hander Dillon Gee is a reliable strikethrower, but he was around the plate a bit too much Tuesday, as the Philadelphia Phillies tagged him for 10 hits, three of them home runs, in three messy innings. Gee became a strikeout pitcher last season, but I'm not buying it. … Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Jean Segura doubled and tripled Tuesday, as he continues to impress. I view him as a 30-steal guy, though he hasn't run much yet. Let's just say he's no light-hitting Alex Gonzalez.
Box score bits (AL): You might be wondering who Texas Rangers right-hander Nick Tepesch is after he tossed seven strong innings Tuesday to beat the Tampa Bay Rays. Tepesch is hittable and doesn't pile on the strikeouts, and while he won a rotation spot this spring, he's hardly overpowering or reliable. Leave him on free agency unless he's facing Houston. … Then again, if you thought Seattle Mariners rookie Brandon Maurer would be a great spot-start option against those pitiful Astros on Tuesday, your ERA is hurting now. Maurer didn't escape the first inning. The Astros had scored 17 runs in seven games, and added 16 more Tuesday. I liked Maurer in the spring, but one must think he's likely headed to Triple-A after this disaster. … Powerful Astros outfielder Chris Carter slugged a pair of home runs in the 16-9 win, and there should be 20 more pending. I thought it was interesting that catcher Jason Castro was elevated to the No. 3 lineup spot. Why not, right? Castro had a few hits. Hope you're not a Brett Wallace owner presuming he played a major role in the 22-hit attack; he whiffed four times in four at-bats and is batting .048. … White Sox second baseman Gordon Beckham left Tuesday's game with a wrist injury. He was off to a superficial start to the season, with a bunch of singles but little else. If he needs to miss time, the White Sox could promote Tyler Greene, who was dumped by the Astros a few weeks ago. If Greene can't make the Astros, how can he help a fantasy team? Well, he did produce 11 home runs and 12 steals in 305 big league at-bats last season. … Andy Pettitte (2-0, 1.20 ERA) is No. 5 on the most added list among starting pitchers. I drafted him on multiple teams late. He might get hurt at some point, but he won't hurt you when healthy.
</offer>

HacheMan · Apr 11, 2013

TRUMming like it's 2004

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

Kid: Don't turn it! That song is awesome.
Me: What are you talking about? It's terrible.
Kid: It's 2 Chainz.
Me: Who on earth is "two chains?"
Kid: I forgot. You're old.
Me: I'm not old. I just don't listen to most rap music because, well, because … (sigh) because I'm old.
Kid: Exactly.
So I'm reluctant to use the phrase but it's appropriate here, because back in the day, I used to write something called "The TRUM." TRUM stood for "Thoughts, Ramblings, Useless information and Musings" and that's exactly what it was. Started in 2004, when I had my own website, it was a nightly brain dump of whatever was on my mind, and during baseball season, it was a daily romp through the box scores, with me commenting on whatever stood out to me. I loved writing the TRUM. My schedule and other duties these days don't allow me to do it like I used to, but every once in a while, especially when it's early and there's no significant stats to dive into, I like to bring it back.

Let's start in Detroit, where the Blue Jays managed just their third win of the season yesterday. … I am starting to get slightly worried with Emilio Bonifacio. I love Bonifacio but he had his fourth error Wednesday night playing second base. He's not hitting nearly well enough to put up with horrible defense (his double Wednesday night was of the bloop variety) and Brett Lawrie will be back sooner than later. He's got his eligibility in ESPN leagues for this season (five games) but his playing time could be in jeopardy. … Fun with early-season batting averages: Jose Reyes is hitting .406 and J.P. Arencibia is hitting .313. Reyes has a much better shot at .400 than Arencibia has at .300. Still, funny to see. … Mark Buehrle wasn't helped by his relief in this game, but still. Another bad start, he hasn't managed to pitch through six innings in two starts. His ESPN.com ownership is 11.5 percent. It should be zero. Nothing special here, with no strikeouts. … Spring training darling Rick Porcello is owned in 15 percent of leagues and I feel the same way about him. Should not be owned in ESPN standard leagues. In 10 innings this year, he has three strikeouts. Three. His career K/9 is 4.96 in 122 starts.

Last weekend I went back to College Station, Texas, for my longtime dynasty keeper leagues. We do two different auctions, a 12-team NL one and a 12-team AL-only auction. Everyone can keep up to 14 players a year at their previous salary, and toward the end of the auction, when money was scarce, Matt Adams of the Cardinals was up for bids. Young, not assured regular playing time, I still love him and went all the way up to $11. But another guy went to $12 and I just couldn't pull the trigger on $13 at that point, as I still had a lot of holes to fill. I got a feeling I'm gonna regret that one, and soon. Adams goes 2-for-3 with a home run and three RBIs and is now 9-for-15 (.643) on the young season. He's gonna hit his way into full-time at-bats. They're just gonna have to. … Meanwhile, Matt Carpenter is also off to a nice start. Goes 4-for-5 with a homer, two runs, two RBIs, hitting .400 in 35 at-bats. You could do worse at your corner infield spot (he qualifies at first and third right now, will qualify at second before long) and probably have at some point. Jake Westbrook has yet to allow an earned run this year, throwing a complete game after shutting down the Giants. He'll get wins and won't hurt your WHIP, but I'm not buying. He has 10 walks to four strikeouts this year in just under 16 innings. That's gonna catch up eventually, as it always has. He's an NL-only or deep mixed-league play, nothing more. … Despite him getting rocked in this game (5 innings, 7 ER), I'd still rather have Westbrook's opponent, Homer Bailey. Wonder if, looking back on it, Bailey's parents regret naming their pitcher son "Homer." I would.

If you're reading this on Thursday afternoon, I'm in New York City, meeting with all the publicity people at my book publisher. I'm guessing they're going to ask why I don't write or tweet about it more. So you know, I'm throwing it in here that I have book coming out in July, just in case they check the column before the meeting. Now I can look back at them and say, "I mentioned it. What are you doing to promote it?" That's really all I aim for. The ability to have a look of semi-superiority in meetings. You can preorder with the links to the right and the people who pre-order it will get all sorts of cool bonus stuff that we're announcing soon. … I thank you in advance for tolerating the book shilling that I'm gonna have to do over the next few months.
Craig Gentry, who doesn't even play every day, stole his third base of the year Wednesday night. Cheap speed, thy name is Craig Gentry. … On the surface, things look good for Matt Moore, as he improves to 2-0 and his ERA continues to be 0.00, having not allowed an earned run. But he needed 106 pitches to get through 5 1/3 on Wednesday night after needing 100 to get through six against Cleveland. Don't love that. Bears watching.

Not enough for A.J. Pollock to hit two home runs, he threw in a steal, as well. Think most viewed him as fill-in material and not much more while Cody Ross and Adam Eaton were out, but he was a former first-round pick and he's at least making it interesting. If nothing else, I assume he's gonna keep starting against lefties even when everyone is healthy. I like him in an NL-only, plucky kind of way. … Paul Goldschmidt is now up to .343 on the season. If I change my Facebook status to say I'm in a relationship with Paul Goldschmidt, is that weird?

I was sad to hear of the passing of Roger Ebert. In his review of "Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles," he called it "genial family entertainment," which, frankly, is the nicest thing anyone's ever said about that movie. His other quote about the movie, "I've seen audits that were more thrilling," is probably more accurate. RIP, Roger.
Wow, home run No. 4 for Bryce Harper. "Oh yeah? Well, he still hasn't stolen a base!" And that concludes this episode of "irrational unsatisfied fantasy baseball owner theater." Hard to steal a base when you're jogging around them. Like many, I was pretty high on Harper in my preseason ranks, but I may not have been high enough. Guy on Twitter told me about a trade offer he got in a non-keeper league; Justin Upton for Bryce Harper, straight up. Would I make the deal and trade for the even hotter, six-home run, .400-hitting Upton? I said I would. But I thought about it. And that should tell you something about where Harper's value is headed these days. For the record, Upton went mid-second round in March (16.5), Harper was a late third-rounder (30.0).

More fun with early batting average: Paul Konerko, .154; Adam Dunn, .179. Lord it over Paul while it lasts, Adam.

Mentioned on the podcast this week how, after publishing last week's 10 lists of 10 with all the team names, I got a lot of "How come you didn't print my awesome name of ____?" Here's why: It was probably offensive. Rare is the name I can use that is a pun of the names of R.A. Dickey, Tim Lincecum, Albert Pujols, Jake Peavy, Eric Byrnes and many others. Or it's not original. I can't tell you how many people suggested "I gotta have more Cowgill!" or "Blame it on Rios," or some variation of "All Upton your Grilli." Even "A guy walks into Aybar" gets old after a while. The list goes on and on, all submitted many, many times. I don't mind it. Your team, name it what you want and some of those are funny. But if your name didn't make the list, that's probably why. Of course, I do also have limited space. But seriously, can we retire "Honey Nut Ichiros?" It's time.
The No. 1 catcher in baseball and the fourth best player overall when you woke up Thursday morning? None other than John Buck, who now has five home runs on the year, has hit them in three straight and is hitting .393 on the season. Oh yeah, he's available in 45 percent of leagues. The average is a fluke, but the power isn't. Enjoy it while it lasts. … Sure, they were down, but at least Bobby Parnell got to pitch in a ninth inning! I feel for my Mets fan friends. … Is Chase Utley back? Now hitting .333 on the season, just hit his second home run, I think I'm kinda buying this.

Welcome back, Stephen Drew. You'll pardon me if I continue to ignore you, right? … Had Daniel Nava in a deep AL-only league last year. Always liked him. Now he has three home runs on the season. I would assume he's already owned in every AL-only league he could help in and he's not a mixed-league consideration yet, but he could be very soon with some more regular playing time, and there's a few ways that can happen. … Ho hum, another day, another Chris Davis home run. Every time Chris Davis hits one out, an angel gets its wings. As crazy hot as his pace is, I still say he's not a sell high. Think this is somewhat legit (he was on my preseason Love list; I had him ranked five rounds ahead of his average draft position) but more to the point, you're not gonna get back what he's worth, even once he cools down. Every player has the right price, sure, but unless you get an offer you feel you can't refuse, stay put and enjoy the ride. … Speaking of rides, despite the one that Davis gave one of Joel Hanrahan's offerings in the ninth Wednesday as part of a five-run rally, Boston's closer is safe for now. But hey, former All-Star Andrew Bailey has yet to allow a run this year. … Second stolen base for Alexi Casilla. In only four at-bats all season. Another good source of cheap speed, Casilla actually stole 21 bases last year in fewer than 300 at bats. He'll get more playing time with Brian Roberts out (sigh) and if he gets the starting gig, he'll be valuable in 12- and 14-team mixed leagues to anyone who needs speeds out of the middle infield. And don't we all, really?

I get email.

Michael Arseneau (Toronto, Ont., Canada): Matt Berry's article posted April 4, 2013, 4:51 PM stating "Hey, he's healthy now." (About Brian Roberts). Apr 4, 6:25 PM, Brian Roberts leaves with hamstring injury. Now wish me to lose all my money!!!

I can't possibly do that, Michael. I'm expecting you to have a huge financial windfall and never get stuck in traffic again.

Also, it's April 11, Troy Tulowitzki is still healthy. As you were.

Really, Barry Zito? Trying to suck us all in, aren't you? Beat the Cards and now the Rockies, both very legit teams. Seven innings, strikes out four, walks one, just eight baserunners … I can't … but, well, he did have a good postseason … and won 15 games last year … NO! I will not be sucked in by Barry Zito. Repeat after me: "I will not be sucked in by Barry Zito." The K rate is still down, it hasn't been above 6.00 since 2010. Not buying for mixed leagues. Must … resist … Barry Zito! But just for fun, Wednesday night at the plate in the Giants' 10-0 win over the Rockies: Hunter Pence goes 0-for-5 with a run. Zito goes 2-for-3 with two runs and an RBI.

Mike Minor off to a hot start and I'm buying it a little, but keep in mind he's beaten the Cubs and the Marlins. Let's not give him the Cy Young just yet. Remember when Nate made fun of me on the podcast for my Evan Gattis love? And now, Nate's out of the country? Coincidence? I think not. Three bombs and counting. Fredi Gonzalez has said Gattis'll get about 75 percent of the starts at catcher (until Brian McCann comes back), and he continues to hit cleanup. He's available in 97 percent of leagues, because catcher is so deep, but there's probably quite a few teams he could help out even if it means moving your 1B-eligible catcher to the corner, or sticking Gattis in your UT spot while he's hot. … The average isn't real but the power is when you're talking about Juan Francisco; so as long as Freddie Freeman is on the DL, Francisco will play third while Chris Johnson plays first. Those Aramis Ramirez/Brett Lawrie/Chase Headley owners hurting at third or corner should take a look at Francisco.

The people recommending Wade Davis are clearly the people who have never owned Wade Davis. Stay away. What has your ERA ever done to you? … Meanwhile, after announcing that Greg Holland was still his closer, Ned Yost gave Kelvin Herrera the save opportunity for the Royals, and Herrera promptly struck out the side. Now, Yost doesn't want Greg Holland going on back-to-back days right now, so he wasn't available. But still. Herrera is still available in 68 percent of leagues, and as I said on the podcast and Twitter last week, he needs to be owned in all leagues where the top middle relievers are owned, and if he gets the closer gig (and he will sooner than later) he's got top-five fantasy closer potential.

Oh good, Michael Carter-Williams of Syracuse is turning pro. Well, anytime you go 1-for-6 with five turnovers and two assists in a Final Four game that you fouled out of, your next step should absolutely be to turn pro. No, not bitter at all about the Syracuse loss, why do you ask?

Albert Pujols is hitting .346 so far with two homers and three doubles among his nine hits. He's also walked nine times (.514 OBP). Guess he's not gonna have another slow start this year. … More fun with early batting average: Howard Kendrick up to .344, Peter Bourjos at .318, Josh Hamilton at .156. … Eric Sogard stands to get a lot more playing time with the injury to Scott Sizemore. AL-only play, nothing more. … Break up the Astros! Either that, or Safeco's moved-in fences have the pitchers spooked. That's 24 runs in two days for Houston. You know the Astros. The team that had catcher Jason Castro, he of the career .234 batting average, hitting third Wednesday night?

Carl Crawford looks healthy and like someone who has something to prove. Which he kinda does. First home run of the year for him. … Kenley Jansen has an ERA of zero, Brandon League has an ugly three-hit inning but gets the save. If you gave me an over/under on saves for Kenley Jansen this year and set the line at 10, I'm taking the over.

To the extent I can, I'm gonna try to do more TRUMs this year. I enjoy them and you know I have useless thoughts and ramblings up the wazoo. Though I still haven't figured out what a wazoo is, exactly. Share your thoughts about that and anything else you want in the comments section. You'll see, it's therapeutic.

HacheMan · Apr 11, 2013

Lessons learned from early stats

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

It's only natural to overreact at this stage of the season.
Let's face facts: We've just come off a 153-day span without baseball that counts (115 days if you're counting from the final 2012 World Series game through the spring training openers) and are only days removed from the excitement of draft season. The 2013 campaign is fresh and new, and the urge to put plenty of stock in your league's standings is often irresistible.

My advice: Ignore them, at least until May.
This is the worst time of the year to trust numbers, because there's no other time of year in which samples are smaller. Year-to-date statistics are based on a maximum of eight team games played, meaning that streaks and slumps are magnified, the perception greater than at any point of the year. We are far more unfair judges of player performance today than we would be in, say, July. Frankly, we would do ourselves far greater service -- that's fantasy owners and analysts -- if we always cited a player's statistics in past-calendar-year blocks. At the very least, we'd be better off if every sample cited was of identical size.
To illustrate, consider this: Had the 2012 season begun Aug. 9, Adam Jones would have had full-season triple-slash rates of .233/.303/.267, zero home runs and one stolen base 16 games in. Had the year started then, his fantasy owners might have been running for the hills. Instead, they presumably exercised more patience with the eventual No. 11 hitter on the 2012 Player Rater, because his full-season numbers would have had more influence on their opinion.
So here's the question: Why should a Buster Posey owner panic today, despite the fact that he's a .208/.269/.250 hitter with zero homers or steals through seven games? Considering there is no injury or obvious obstacle to Posey's path to success, there's no reason he should be treated any differently than Jones was in August. Heck, he deserves more leeway, being that he was drafted earlier this spring (16th overall) than Jones was last season (81st).
That said, a "don't worry" brush also shouldn't be used to paint broad strokes across the entire baseball population. Sometimes there is deeper meaning to the numbers, or at least something that warrants more closely monitoring the player's performance in the coming days.

With the caveat that the tiniest of samples often lead to the worst of misinterpretations, let's take a look at some of 2013's more curious early numbers:
" Through 34 plate appearances, Giancarlo Stanton has four hits and zero home runs. The Stanton numbers of greater relevance are this: He has walked or struck out in 56 percent of those PAs, whereas in his first three seasons he walked or whiffed 39 percent of the time, deviating by only 1 percent from that 39 number in any individual year. In addition, only 35 percent of the pitches thrown to him have been within the strike zone, the second lowest rate in the majors and a 9 percent decline from 2012.
Naturally, those kinds of facts, plus the fact that Greg Dobbs (5 starts) and Placido Polanco (3) have been the cleanup hitters behind him, spawn the inevitable "lineup protection" debate. Yes, perhaps the Miami Marlins' lineup deficiencies will limit the number of quality pitches that Stanton sees in 2013. But he will see some, he does have power potential that rivals that of anyone in the game, and there are two other points to cite in his defense. The first is that, as a "three-true-outcomes" hitter -- meaning a player who has a large percentage of PAs result in a home run, walk or strikeout -- Stanton is going to be prone to slumps from time to time. The other is that, judging by his career history, he has been known to get off to his share of slow starts.
The chart below lists the 15 active players who had the largest OPS differential between their April and full-season numbers from 2010-12 combined (minimum 150 PAs in April, 900 total), with April being the poorer side:
<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>

Player <CENTER>April OPS</CENTER> <CENTER>Total OPS</CENTER> <CENTER>Difference</CENTER>
Giancarlo Stanton .701 .928 -.227
Aramis Ramirez .635 .845 -.210
Victor Martinez .665 .847 -.182
Chris Johnson .598 .755 -.157
Raul Ibanez .612 .754 -.142
Carlos Gonzalez .786 .918 -.132
Ronny Cedeno .542 .670 -.128
Albert Pujols .799 .926 -.127
Rajai Davis .553 .675 -.122
Alexei Ramirez .589 .708 -.119
Gordon Beckham .545 .664 -.119
Delmon Young .630 .746 -.116
Mark Reynolds .660 .775 -.115
Juan Pierre .559 .672 -.113
J.J. Hardy .614 .726 -.112

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>

That's as compelling evidence as there is that Stanton's owners should give him a longer leash. It's also something to keep in mind if you're disappointed with the early returns of Victor Martinez or Albert Pujols.
" Marco Scutaro has hit only one line drive in 34 PAs. By comparison, Scutaro hit three line drives in his first game of 2012. No one hit more line drives last season (138), and only Paul Goldschmidt was higher than Scutaro's 23.4 percent line-drive rate. We caution so often on these pages the difficulty of a player repeating such a high number. Line-drive rates often vary by multiple percentage points -- it's rare to see a player consistently manage higher than 22 percent from year to year -- and Scutaro had a mere 18.9 percent rate in 2011 and 19 percent in 2010. His fantasy appeal remains that of the "can't hurt you" middle infield type, being that he's rarely one to disrupt your team's batting average, but a .290 mark in the category might be his eventual result.
" Josh Hamilton has only one extra-base hit in 29 at-bats, and it was a double. Again, there's a more telling number at play: Hamilton has chased pitches outside of the strike zone (swings on non-strikes) 50 percent of the time, and he has missed on his swings 32 percent of the time. Last season, he set career worsts in both departments en route to a .259 second-half batting average. There's a simple solution for what ails Hamilton: Recapture the kind of plate discipline he had during his outstanding 2010 season.
" Coco Crisp has hit four home runs and has made hard contact 12 times, second most in the majors. Wherefore thy power, Coco? Crisp's critics will be quick to point out that three of the homers came against mediocre Houston Astros pitching -- Brad Peacock, Bud Norris and Lucas Harrell, to be specific -- and there's another reason to doubt: Our Home Run Tracker notes that two of Crisp's homers wouldn't have cleared the fence in any park except Houston's Minute Maid Park. Heck, Crisp is already more than a third of the way to his entire 2012 season total in homers (11).

" Chris Davis has four homers and a major league-leading 17 RBIs. Fantasy owners probably know by now that the RBIs are somewhat fluky and reliant upon team performance, but Davis' early power surge shouldn't be entirely cast aside as a mere streak from a historically streaky player. Two other numbers of his stand out as hints of skills improvement. One is his 16 percent miss rate on swings, which is 15 percentage points beneath his 2012 number (31 percent). The other is his 6-for-8, 2-homer performance on "soft" stuff -- specifically curves, sliders and changeups -- which reflects an equal-or-better level of performance to that of 2012. Certainly Davis' early surge supports his 2012 breakthrough as legitimate, and it's not unthinkable that if he's closing more of the holes in his swing that he might even take a small step forward in 2013.
" Brett Wallace has struck out in 17 of 22 PAs. Contact has never been Wallace's strong suit, but that's a somewhat unbelievable strikeout rate, even with the sample as small as it is. The Astros could always restore Chris Carter to either first base or designated hitter, using Carlos Pena at the other spot, if Wallace doesn't pick up the pace. From a long-term angle, continued struggles by Wallace could lead to midsummer questions about Jonathan Singleton's arrival.
" Jesus Montero has neither walked nor made hard contact once. This is another one that is difficult to believe, though it's worth pointing out that Montero did have the 17th-highest swing rate in baseball last season (51 percent) and the 19th-lowest walk rate (5.2 percent). He did get off to a comparably aggressive start last year too, walking only twice in April, but fantasy owners were probably hoping for a breakthrough, especially with the Seattle Mariners bringing in the outfield fences at Safeco Field this year. Still, give Montero some time: The Mariners have played just two games at Safeco.
" Josh Reddick, who struck out the 31st-most often in 2012, has struck out the fifth-least often in 2013. Oddly enough, most of his other numbers are largely in line, with the exception of his ground-ball rate (41.7 percent, up from 29.7 percent) and his BABIP (.087, down from .269). There appears not to be any reason to worry about Reddick's early struggles, though a boost to his contact rate could help him be more of a contributor in terms of batting average over the long haul.
<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
[h=4]TOP 150 HITTERS[/h]Note: Tristan H. Cockcroft's top 150 hitters are ranked for their expected performance from this point forward, not for statistics that have already been accrued. For position-specific rankings, see the "Pos Rk" column. Previous Ranking ("Prv Rk") is ESPN's preseason ranking among all hitters.

<CENTER>#</CENTER> Player, Team <CENTER>Pos
Rk</CENTER> <CENTER>Prv
Rk</CENTER> <CENTER></CENTER> <CENTER>#</CENTER> Player, Team <CENTER>Pos
Rk</CENTER> <CENTER>Prv
Rk</CENTER>
1 Ryan Braun, Mil OF1 1 76 Carlos Gomez, Mil OF35 61
2 Miguel Cabrera, Det 3B1 2 77 Todd Frazier, Cin 3B10 95
3 Mike Trout, LAA OF2 3 78 Freddie Freeman, Atl 1B12 59
4 Andrew McCutchen, Pit OF3 4 79 Angel Pagan, SF OF36 77
5 Robinson Cano, NYY 2B1 6 80 Carlos Beltran, StL OF37 73
6 Matt Kemp, LAD OF4 5 81 Aramis Ramirez, Mil 3B11 54
7 Carlos Gonzalez, Col OF5 7 82 Brett Gardner, NYY OF38 78
8 Joey Votto, Cin 1B1 9 83 Alcides Escobar, KC SS8 85
9 Justin Upton, Atl OF6 11 84 Ben Revere, Phi OF39 81
10 Prince Fielder, Det 1B2 10 85 Erick Aybar, LAA SS9 75
11 Albert Pujols, LAA 1B3 8 86 Nelson Cruz, Tex OF40 80
12 Jose Bautista, Tor OF7 12 87 Victor Martinez, Det C6 70
13 David Wright, NYM 3B2 15 88 Neil Walker, Pit 2B10 76
14 Troy Tulowitzki, Col SS1 18 89 Howard Kendrick, LAA 2B11 93
15 Giancarlo Stanton, Mia OF8 13 90 Andre Ethier, LAD OF41 84
16 Buster Posey, SF C1 16 91 Ryan Howard, Phi 1B13 89
17 Evan Longoria, TB 3B3 17 92 Miguel Montero, Ari C7 101
18 Adam Jones, Bal OF9 25 93 Adam LaRoche, Wsh 1B14 90
19 Ian Kinsler, Tex 2B2 22 94 Josh Reddick, Oak OF42 94
20 Jason Heyward, Atl OF10 14 95 Kevin Youkilis, NYY 3B12 118
21 Adrian Beltre, Tex 3B4 20 96 Torii Hunter, Det OF43 99
22 Jose Reyes, Tor SS2 26 97 David Ortiz, Bos DH1 97
23 Dustin Pedroia, Bos 2B3 23 98 David Freese, StL 3B13 102
24 Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 1B4 19 99 Jed Lowrie, Oak SS10 135
25 Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos OF11 28 100 Mark Teixeira, NYY 1B15 117
26 Billy Butler, KC 1B5 29 101 Alejandro De Aza, CWS OF44 88
27 Jay Bruce, Cin OF12 27 102 Jason Kubel, Ari OF45 109
28 Starlin Castro, ChC SS3 24 103 Wilin Rosario, Col C8 115
29 Brandon Phillips, Cin 2B4 33 104 Kendrys Morales, Sea 1B16 105
30 Bryce Harper, Wsh OF13 31 105 Nick Swisher, Cle OF46 96
31 B.J. Upton, Atl OF14 30 106 Carl Crawford, LAD OF47 121
32 Josh Hamilton, LAA OF15 21 107 Mike Moustakas, KC 3B14 98
33 Matt Holliday, StL OF16 32 108 Coco Crisp, Oak OF48 114
34 Austin Jackson, Det OF17 36 109 Paul Konerko, CWS 1B17 92
35 Michael Bourn, Cle OF18 34 110 Derek Jeter, NYY SS11 107
36 Desmond Jennings, TB OF19 37 111 Will Middlebrooks, Bos 3B15 111
37 Paul Goldschmidt, Ari 1B6 42 112 Dan Uggla, Atl 2B12 122
38 Jimmy Rollins, Phi SS4 44 113 Kyle Seager, Sea 3B16 106
39 Ben Zobrist, TB OF20 38 114 Michael Cuddyer, Col OF49 112
40 Adrian Gonzalez, LAD 1B7 35 115 Salvador Perez, KC C9 104
41 Ian Desmond, Wsh SS5 39 116 Pedro Alvarez, Pit 3B17 100
42 Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh 3B5 41 117 Nick Markakis, Bal OF50 108
43 Yoenis Cespedes, Oak OF21 43 118 Jayson Werth, Wsh OF51 116
44 Elvis Andrus, Tex SS6 47 119 Manny Machado, Bal 3B18 110
45 Alex Rios, CWS OF22 48 120 Lance Berkman, Tex 1B18 120
46 Allen Craig, StL 1B8 45 121 Danny Espinosa, Wsh 2B13 103
47 Shin-Soo Choo, Cin OF23 51 122 Norichika Aoki, Mil OF52 125
48 Pablo Sandoval, SF 3B6 52 123 Daniel Murphy, NYM 2B14 127
49 Alex Gordon, KC OF24 55 124 J.J. Hardy, Bal SS12 124
50 Aaron Hill, Ari 2B5 56 125 Ichiro Suzuki, NYY OF53 119
51 Yadier Molina, StL C2 46 126 Justin Morneau, Min 1B19 126
52 Carlos Santana, Cle C3 53 127 Marco Scutaro, SF 2B15 113
53 Jason Kipnis, Cle 2B6 40 128 Alexei Ramirez, CWS SS13 138
54 Matt Wieters, Bal C4 49 129 Jonathan Lucroy, Mil C10 128
55 Martin Prado, Ari OF25 66 130 Everth Cabrera, SD SS14 129
56 Joe Mauer, Min C5 50 131 Adam Dunn, CWS 1B20 146
57 Chase Headley, SD 3B7 62 132 Trevor Plouffe, Min 3B19 142
58 Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle SS7 58 133 Mike Napoli, Bos C11 133
59 Mark Trumbo, LAA OF26 63 134 Brandon Moss, Oak 1B21 148
60 Brett Lawrie, Tor 3B8 57 135 Dayan Viciedo, CWS OF54 130
61 Jose Altuve, Hou 2B7 60 136 Andrelton Simmons, Atl SS15 131
62 Dexter Fowler, Col OF27 91 137 Michael Young, Phi 1B22 140
63 Josh Willingham, Min OF28 64 138 Jean Segura, Mil SS16 NR
64 Eric Hosmer, KC 1B9 69 139 Starling Marte, Pit OF55 147
65 Chris Davis, Bal OF29 83 140 Michael Saunders, Sea OF56 NR
66 Curtis Granderson, NYY OF30 67 141 Matt Carpenter, StL 1B23 NR
67 Hanley Ramirez, LAD 3B9 72 142 Josh Rutledge, Col SS17 NR
68 Ike Davis, NYM 1B10 65 143 Cameron Maybin, SD OF57 123
69 Melky Cabrera, Tor OF31 68 144 Chris Young, Oak OF58 NR
70 Rickie Weeks, Mil 2B8 82 145 Garrett Jones, Pit 1B24 144
71 Michael Morse, Sea OF32 86 146 Mark Reynolds, Cle 1B25 NR
72 Shane Victorino, Bos OF33 71 147 Jesus Montero, Sea C12 134
73 Anthony Rizzo, ChC 1B11 74 148 Emilio Bonifacio, Tor OF59 132
74 Hunter Pence, SF OF34 79 149 Chris Carter, Hou 1B26 150
75 Chase Utley, Phi 2B9 87 150 Franklin Gutierrez, Sea OF60 NR

<THEAD>
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</TBODY>

HacheMan · Apr 11, 2013

Bits: Stephen Drew debuts for Red Sox

Eric Karabell

Once upon a recent time, Stephen Drew was one of the better shortstops in baseball. From 2007-10, he averaged 15 home runs, 63 RBIs and 7 steals for the Arizona Diamondbacks, annually teasing fantasy owners with the prospect of really significant numbers, but still being valuable enough for mixed-league ownership. Since then, Drew hasn't played much or very well. But he made his 2013 debut with the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday, and I'm certainly intrigued enough to consider him a potential addition in a 10-team league at some point soon.
<OFFER>Drew, currently owned in a bit more than 4 percent of ESPN standard leagues, went hitless in four aggressive at-bats (only nine pitches) while hitting eighth against Baltimore Orioles right-hander Jake Arrieta and his pals. Now 30 and apparently free of the concussion symptoms that dogged him this spring and ankle problems stemming from the gruesome home plate incident of mid-2011, it's reasonable to think a healthy Drew can produce his "old numbers," though his health is tougher to predict. Certainly heading to the American League and a home ballpark such as Fenway seems conducive enough for a rebound to relevance. There's debate about demoting/sitting Jose Iglesias, an exceptional fielder, but trust me, that .450 batting average of his might have been cut in half with 500 at-bats. Drew is better.

</OFFER>
One would think Drew is already owned in all AL-only formats, but what it will take for him to become a mixed-league consideration? Well, a 15-homer, 60-RBI, 7-steal shortstop seems compelling enough to me. Last September is a small sample, but Drew hit .263 for the Oakland Athletics with five home runs and 14 RBIs, giving hope for his future. The Orioles' J.J. Hardy, Athletics' Jed Lowrie and Chicago White Sox's Alexei Ramirez are each 100 percent owned. If Drew delivered the numbers he used to average, he'd be worthy of full ownership, especially compared to that crew. Hardy might whack 25 homers, but he won't run. Lowrie is off to a terrific start, but he has never posted a 15-homer, 60-RBI season as Drew has, he doesn't steal bases, and he has never even batted 400 times in a season. The durable, consistent Ramirez I certainly like better, but a healthy, productive Drew will rise on the most-added list quickly, so keep an eye out.

Box Score Bits (AL): Speaking of middle infielders trying to make a comeback, poor Scott Sizemore of the Athletics re-tore his left ACL and is done for the season. Sizemore's roster spot was taken by Andy Parrino, but keep an eye on Triple-A Sacramento's Jemile Weeks, who in his two extreme batting-average seasons for Oakland (.303 in 2011, .221 last year) stole a total 38 bases. … Toronto Blue Jays lefty Mark Buehrle was already among the most dropped starting pitchers before Wednesday, then was pummeled for six runs (five earned) in 4 1/3 innings at Detroit. His current ERA: 10.24. With so much pitching depth in fantasy, and him not being a strikeout guy, it's already time to move on. … The Blue Jays claimed outfielder Casper Wells from Seattle on Wednesday. He hits left-handers well, and should take at-bats from Colby Rasmus and potentially Rajai Davis. But he's still not worth anything in 10-team mixed formats. … Interesting line for future Tampa Bay Rays phenom (I believe) Matt Moore in Texas, as he walked six but allowed only one hit, no runs. He'll get it right, eventually. … Lance Berkman owners might not like it, but trust me, occasional days off against tough lefties, such as Moore on Wednesday, are good for his health and batting average. … Orioles third baseman Manny Machado took Red Sox closer Joel Hanrahan deep for the winning three-run home run Wednesday, but he has otherwise been quiet, hitting .200. You have to love the fact that Buck Showalter keeps batting him second. Be patient with him. … Seattle outfielder Michael Saunders crashed into the outfield wall and hurt his right shoulder, which should give Jason Bay the playing time he covets. Whether it matters or not is another story. … Mike Trout finally stole a base. Stop worrying, there will be 50 more.

Box Score Bits (NL): St. Louis Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter homered among his four hits Wednesday, raising his season batting average to .400. The guy is legit, and he needs only eight more games at second base for that critical eligibility. … Teammate Matt Adams continues to rake when given opportunity. Filling in for Allen Craig, he homered and knocked in three. If Carlos Beltran had to miss time, it wouldn't be Oscar Taveras playing, but rather Craig in right field and Adams at first base regularly. … Diamondbacks outfielder A.J. Pollock smacked two home runs and knocked in four Wednesday. He's a lot like Adam Eaton, not a power guy but he runs, and could carve out a role starting against lefties like the brutal Jonathan Sanchez, who allowed nine runs. … It's understandable why the Pittsburgh Pirates took a chance on Sanchez, but there's no way you should in any league. … The left fielder for Arizona was Alfredo Marte, who hit 20 home runs at Double-A Mobile in 2012. The Cody Ross signing hurt his chances of playing, but Marte, who had two hits and a walk Wednesday, is a name to remember. … You might not like Barry Zito, but the San Francisco Giants lefty has yet to allow a run in 14 innings. Of course, in six Giants seasons, his final ERA has never finished on the good side of 4, and it shouldn't this year. … Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Chad Billingsley thrived in his season debut, allowing one run to win in San Diego. His balky elbow was able to avoid Tommy John surgery, and at least you know he'll pitch well enough when active. If he gets lit, the Dodgers do have depth.

HacheMan · Apr 11, 2013

Buck jumps into top 10 in Player Rater

Eric Karabell

Entering Thursday, the No. 3 most-added player and No. 4 option on the ESPN Player Rater for standard mixed leagues was, believe it or not, New York Mets catcher John Buck. While it's simplistic to note that he is not likely to continue his torrid pace and end up as a top-10 backstop, the fact is he's hot now. Buck homered in each of three games this week at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, the first time in his career he has accomplished such a streak, and he sits just one home run behind the big league leaders with five of them, matching in nine games what all Mets catchers did the entirety of 2012. John Buck? Really? Yeah, John Buck.
I figured I'd speak with the suddenly popular Buck after the Phillies finished off their 7-3 win Wednesday night and find out if he knew why this was happening. After all, while I admit to being mighty skeptical of a 32-year-old catcher with a career .237 batting average and only one 20-homer season on his nine-year résumé keeping this going, that doesn't mean it can't continue. Stranger things have happened.

"I'm just trying to stay loose with my hands," said Buck, whose 15 RBIs lead the National League by five. "It's something I worked on with [Miami Marlins hitting coach] Eddie Perez last year toward the end, trying to take the tension and muscle out of my swing. I carried it into the offseason. I think it's made my bat speed better, helped me stay more selective at the plate."

<OFFER>Buck hit .192 for those 2012 Marlins and .227 the year prior, striking out more than 100 times each season, so it's safe to say we have a reasonable baseline on him. His current .375 batting average is soon going to take a major hit, resulting in fantasy teams moving on. But let's be fair, the power is a different story. Since Buck debuted in 2004, only six primary catchers have more home runs, so there is value in longevity.</OFFER>

But really, all of this is OK. The main issue with adding Buck in ESPN standard, 10-team formats, where each team needs only one catcher, is that people are impulsively dropping stronger long-term choices, such as the Milwaukee Brewers' Jonathan Lucroy, the Kansas City Royals' Salvador Perez and the Seattle Mariners' Jesus Montero. Then again, with so much depth at the position for one-catcher formats, there's also little harm in doing that since you know talent should be readily available.

The truth is that Lucroy and Perez are really good, and a week of underwhelming stats doesn't scare me away one bit. I'm quickly losing faith in Montero, I must admit, since, according to the great Tristan H. Cockcroft in Wednesday's Hit Parade, he has yet to make hard contact even once and hasn't drawn a walk. That's a bad combination to go with him not being a good defender and top prospect Mike Zunino seemingly about ready. The point is to go ahead and add Buck while he's hot and hitting homers every day, but be prepared for normalcy to sprout its realistic head and for the option that you cut to potentially come back to haunt you, producing for another fantasy rival.

What if this really is a late-career emergence, though? I asked Buck if he was a new player or this was simply a good start.

"Both, I think," Buck said. "I feel like I do have some things that I didn't have in the past. Going through last year, I grew from it and benefited from it. Maybe I'm getting good results early on because of that. I'm just trying to hit the ball solid, literally, and not trying to do anything more."

In 2010 for the Toronto Blue Jays, Buck hit what seems like an aberrant .281, achieving this despite drawing 16 walks against 111 strikeouts. That's tough to do, and repeat. He also hit 20 home runs and turned that into a nice contract with the Marlins, whom he hit .213 for. Buck was included in the one-sided November trade heading back to Toronto then sent to the Mets a week before Christmas in the R.A. Dickey deal.

The Mets, likely not playoff contenders this season, have one of the top catching prospects in the game in Travis d'Arnaud, who was a bigger key to the Toronto trade. Certainly Buck wouldn't be benched if he continued to rake, but when it stops, he's top trade bait to make room for d'Arnaud, who seems ready for the big leagues. Perhaps Buck will hit in his next stop as well, but there's tremendous batting average downside. ESPN Fantasy projected a .229 mark with 15 home runs, which is certainly reasonable, so be aware.

Mets meanderings: Leadoff hitter Jordany Valdespin produced three infield singles and shined defensively in center field, and one must wonder why he doesn't play more regularly. Fantasy owners would love his steals potential. Second baseman Daniel Murphy, who cost Valdespin a run scored Wednesday with a poor baserunning play in the fifth inning, lauded Valdespin's "energy at the top of the lineup," while manager Terry Collins said, "We've gotta try to get him in there a little bit more." Keep interest, fantasy owners. … Lucas Duda, high on my sleeper list last season, launched two solo home runs Wednesday. He wasn't real talkative after the game, noting, "I'm seeing the ball pretty well" and saying his "confidence level is pretty high, especially at the plate." That last part made me chuckle. He's not a good defender in left field, but if he hits 20 home runs, and he should, few will care. … First baseman Ike Davis is hitting .129. We've been here before, no? Another 30-homer season is coming, but I don't see why anything more than a .250 batting average can be expected.

HacheMan · Apr 11, 2013

Mike Zunino is forcing Seattle's hand

[h=5]Buster Olney[/h]
The Seattle Mariners' season is still taking shape, and in the days ahead, they will have to play without Michael Saunders, who was hurt Wednesday in an ugly collision with the wall; he immediately reached up to the area of his right collarbone.
But an important part of the Mariners' future -- and 2013 season, in all likelihood -- is taking shape outside of Seattle. Catcher Mike Zunino, the No. 3 overall pick in last year's draft, is off to a strong start in Triple-A, and is starting to build his case for promotion. Zunino dominated Class A and Double-A last season, and has eight extra-base hits in his first six games for Tacoma.

Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik ran through the list of Zunino's specific skills in a phone conversation Wednesday afternoon -- good power, quick release, average to slightly above-average throwing arm. But the most important part of the impression that Zunino left in spring training was how well he fit in, how at ease he was in a major league clubhouse. As Jim Caple wrote in this piece from a few weeks ago, Zunino's mother was a catcher on the Italian softball team, and his dad was a minor leaguer.

Zunino, then, has been in the arena his whole life, and has seemed to develop a comfort with the process. Zduriencik said, "For that position, that's a really good quality. He's got a good presence. He asks great questions. He sits around and talks with older guys, and he's not intimidated at all."
<OFFER>That ease was also fostered by his years at the University of Florida, in the highest level of college baseball. He is rocketing through the minor leagues, to the degree that his success is something of a problem. Baseball officials greatly prefer that their prospects go through slumps, through repeated days of poor performance, so that they develop some history and process to learn how to dig themselves out mentally. So far, Zunino has done nothing but thrive in the minors.
"He just needs to play," said Zduriencik. "This guy really hasn't failed, and he needs to have the ups and the downs. He's a fast-tracker, and if you brought him to the big leagues today, he'd handle himself."

It will be Zunino who will dictate with his play his timetable to the big leagues, Zduriencik said, and it's likely that sometime soon, he will be an option for the Mariners.

Some follow-up on other top prospects at the start of this season:

• Aaron Hicks, who had a great spring and won a job with the Twins, drew the ire of his manager after the Twins' latest defeat. From Mike Berardino's story:

In Hicks' case, it wasn't really the fact he is now 2-for-35 (.057) with 16 strikeouts after going hitless in five at-bats with three more whiffs.

More concerning, from Gardenhire's perspective, was Hicks' failure to run at full speed on a ball that Lorenzo Cain dropped for a two-base error in center field leading off the seventh.

"I can't handle that," Gardenhire said. "I haven't talked to him about it because I always have to calm down before I talk to people. Not finishing, not running that ball out, hesitating, kind of slowing up -- that bothers me an awful lot."

The manager, it should be noted, brought up that violation on his own.

"I don't care what you're doing on a baseball field," he said. "It takes no talent whatsoever to hustle, and he didn't finish running out. We finish balls off. We always run. That's probably part of the frustration factor, but I can't live with that. I'll have my conversation with him."

• The Mets' Zack Wheeler was recently sent for an MRI because of a blister problem.
• Yasiel Puig (Dodgers) was pulled from a game Wednesday because of a mental mistake.
Tony Cingrani is off to a great start in Triple-A, and Dusty Baker says the left-hander will be the guy called up if the Reds have a starting pitcher go down.

• Jurickson Profar (Rangers) has a whole bunch of walks, and strikeouts.
• Mike Olt (Rangers) is hitting .111, with 11 strikeouts in 27 at-bats.

• Wil Myers (Rays) is hitting .360 in 25 at-bats for Triple-A Durham.

• Chris Archer, Myers' teammate in Durham, has two walks and 12 strikeouts in 10 innings.

• Anthony Rendon (Nationals) is hitting .192, with a bunch of walks.

• Kevin Gausman (Orioles) had a rough first outing in Double-A.

• Gerrit Cole (Pirates) has pitched six innings in his first two starts.

[h=3]Around the league[/h]
• Nolan Ryan is staying with the Rangers. Hopefully, all the egos involved in this matter will remain in check, because this was one of the silliest chapters in baseball in recent years. Six weeks of internal drama came to an end, writes Evan Grant. Maybe he's staying because he wants to start what he finishes. Richard Durrett says this is a huge relief for the club.
• A friend of Barry Zito had a great description about where he is mentally these days: For years, he was the pitcher who hadn't performed up to his end of one of the biggest contracts in baseball history. But the postseason wins over the Cardinals and Tigers last fall freed his mind, and now he's just rolling, mixing his cutter and his curveball and keeping hitters off balance, and after his outing Wednesday, he has yet to allow a run.
Plus, he's already got three hits this season.
Zito could trigger his $18 million option for next season, writes Tim Kawakami.
From Elias: The Giants have won the past 13 regular-season games started by Zito, the longest such streak for this franchise since the New York Giants won 13 consecutive games started by Sal Maglie spanning the 1951 and 1952 seasons. Zito is 9-0 with a 3.20 earned-run average during this streak. Maglie was 12-0 with a 1.45 earned-run average during his streak, including one game in relief. Zito has thrown seven scoreless innings in each of his two starts this season. The only other pitcher in Giants history to throw seven-plus scoreless innings in each of his first two starts of a season was Al Worthington -- who threw shutouts in each of his first two major league starts, in July 1953.
• The Orioles' Chris Davis was on the podcast and had some great memories of the day he had to pitch two innings last year. Orioles GM Dan Duquette says Davis has been lobbying for another opportunity, and Aaron Boone talked about the great work of Oakland hitting coach Chili Davis.
• The Athletics did some serious damage against the Angels.

Mike Scioscia called a team meeting after the Angels' loss. Scioscia talked about his team:

"The talent's in that room," said Scioscia, the orchestrator of that meeting. "I think once we get going, get that confidence level to be where it needs to be, we're going to get into our game and play our game more often. We have nobody to think about but our own club."

The sense of urgency comes from recent memory. Last year, the Angels struggled to score runs, could barely hold leads and -- minus Mike Trout -- lost 14 of their first 20 games, putting themselves in a hole they never climbed out of. But Albert Pujols -- batting .346 and having a far better April than his homerless one last spring -- is trying to keep 2012 in the past.

"We don't go and look back and dig on the old dirt that we already buried," Pujols said after going 4-for-4 with two doubles, becoming the 35th player to notch 1,000 career extra-base hits. "Last year was last year. This is 2013. We need to stay focused and concentrate on this year. That's how I look at it, and I think I can speak for the rest of our ballclub."

• Houston is on a winning streak, and has piled up a bunch of runs the past two days.

• The legend of Evan Gattis grows with each swing. He just overwhelms the baseball with the hacks he takes. Here's video proof.

From Elias: Atlanta has allowed only 18 runs in its first nine games of the season. That matches the third-fewest runs allowed in the first nine games of a season in Braves franchise history. They allowed 15 runs in their first nine games in 1993, 16 in 1958 (while in Milwaukee) and 18 in 1888 (Boston).
• Bryce Harper crushed a colossal home run. Here's video proof.
• On the day Matt Adams expected to be drafted, he waited for 15 rounds before walking away from his laptop in disgust. Now he's in the big leagues with the Cardinals and is off to a great start, with nine hits in 14 at-bats.

• The Detroit bullpen had another tough day, as John Lowe writes. So far this season, the Tigers relievers have a combined ERA of 6.66, easily the worst in the majors.
There's no need to panic yet, writes Lynn Henning.

• Boston's sellout streak came to an end, writes Tim Britton.

[h=3]Dings and dents[/h]
1. Scott Sizemore has the worst luck: Another torn ACL, another lost season.

2. Sean Marshall landed on the disabled list with a sore shoulder.

3. Derek Jeter is making progress.

4. David Ortiz may be back in action as soon as next Friday, as mentioned within this Michael Silverman notebook.

5. The Pirates will wait as long as possible before deciding whether to start Wandy Rodriguez.

6. Gordon Beckham is expected to go on the disabled list.

7. R.A. Dickey is dealing with a nail problem.

8. Aaron Hill got hit on the hand.

9. Erick Aybar appears to be headed for the disabled list.
[h=3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h]
1. Ivan Nova's turn in the rotation is going to be skipped.

2. Chris Dickerson got word of his promotion in an interesting way.

3. The Jays picked up an outfielder.

4. The Braves traded for a reliever.

[h=3]Wednesday's games[/h]
1. The Orioles mounted a huge rally.

2. Joel Hanrahan blew the save chance.

3. The Royals are at the top of their division after sweeping the Twins.

From Elias: Royals starting pitchers are 4-0 with a 3.16 earned-run average over the team's last four games. It's the first time since September 2011 that Kansas City won four straight games with the starting pitcher earning the win in all the games. The Royals won five straight games with the starter earning the win each game during that streak. Kansas City's starters in those five games were Felipe Paulino, Everett Teaford, Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar and Jeff Francis.

4. Jonathan Sanchez lost it early.

5. Gavin Floyd was good and bad, writes Mark Gonzales.

6. The Jays put together a badly needed rally.
7. Matt Moore came up with a good outing just when the Rays needed it. Ben Zobrist made a great throw. Here's the video evidence.

8. A.J. Pollock had a big day.

9. The Padres' Eric Stults struggled.

[h=3]NL East[/h]
• Chase Utley is returning to his old self, writes David Murphy.

• A record-low crowd showed up for the Marlins' game. The Marlins' season has gone from frustrating to ugly.
[h=3]NL Central[/h]
• The Cardinals showed some great resilience this week, writes Bernie Miklasz. The win for Jake Westbrook was No. 99.
• The next week looms as a big test for the Pirates, writes Gene Collier.
• Aramis Ramirez is out and the Brewers are struggling to find someone to replace his bat, writes Tom Haudricourt.
[h=3]NL West[/h]
• Walt Weiss has confidence in Todd Helton.
• Chad Billingsley was The Man for the Dodgers.
[h=3]AL Central[/h]
• The Indians have some time to regroup.
• Trevor Plouffe is quickly becoming a target.
[h=3]Other stuff[/h]
• Cubs prospect Jorge Soler went after an opponent with a bat in his hand.

• The Jackie Robinson movie is a boon to the Negro Leagues Museum, writes Sam Mellinger.

• Mariano Rivera had a great learning experience in 1997.

• This is a moment when somebody took sports way too seriously. It's supposed to be fun.

• Some umpires got stuck in traffic.

• Kevin Durant talked about his brief baseball career.

And today will be better than yesterday.

HacheMan · Apr 15, 2013

Bits: Is Clay Buchholz's breakout for real?

Eric Karabell

Boston Red Sox right-hander Clay Buchholz, owner of a no-hitter from his second big league start way back in 2007, nearly matched the feat Sunday when he held the beleaguered Tampa Bay Rays -- yes, them again -- hitless for seven innings. Buchholz is off to a terrific start in 2013, which must surprise many people since he was a 22nd-round choice in ESPN average live drafts. He has gone from roughly 80 percent owned to 100 percent owned in the past week, but there's a reason why there were so many disbelievers to begin with.

Buchholz missed more than half of the 2011 season because of a back injury, and started the next year so miserably that some fantasy owners just couldn't get on board, and might never trust him again. Buchholz brought a 7.18 ERA into June last season, becoming a free agent in most leagues. In June/July his composite ERA was 2.42. And in September, his ERA was 4.82, though it was ruined by one bad outing. Still, this is a streaky pitcher in an odd career plagued by injury, and Sunday's outing was a reminder just how good he can be. But things can change quickly.
<OFFER>For now, enjoy what Buchholz is providing, though the obvious call here is to sell high. I know, I know, he looked awesome Sunday, allowing two hits over eight shutout innings and striking out a career-best 11, and his season ERA dropped to 0.41. That's one earned run in 22 innings. It's simplistic to say "that can't continue," since we all know it can't, but Buchholz has been so streaky in his career, and health has been a bit less assured with him than others, it's a perfect time to see if the Zack Greinke/Jered Weaver owners in your league will overpay for the No. 65 starting pitcher in ADP, a guy who was taken after Ivan Nova and Edwin Jackson, among others.</OFFER>
On Sunday, Buchholz had command of all four of his pitches, though it's worth noting he did walk four Rays, and threw a relatively low 69 of his 109 pitches for strikes. Teammates and manager John Farrell noted Buchholz's maturity from his rookie year, one who "knows himself more as a pitcher." Then again, even last season Buchholz was erratic, and he never has made as many as 30 starts in a season. That doesn't mean fantasy owners can't trust him, but when he can't throw all his pitches for strikes, or things don't go as well as they did Sunday, he's prone to tough outings. Buchholz isn't a big strikeout pitcher, either, registering only 129 whiffs in 29 starts last year. I'm actually a modest fan, and I do own him on a few teams, but what he did Sunday, and that fancy ERA he's now sporting, pretty much scream sell-high.
Box score bits (AL): Cleveland Indians outfielder Michael Bourn homered Sunday, then later cut his hand diving into first base. Bourn needed five stitches and could miss a few games. Through 10 games, Bourn has two home runs and just one stolen base. Odd. ... Remember when Chicago White Sox catcher Tyler Flowers was all the rage following homers in consecutive games to start 2013? Well, he recently had an 0-for-22 stretch, not surprisingly, though he did hit a double to break it Sunday. ... I'm buying on Kansas City Royals right-hander Ervin Santana. After his eight-inning, two-run (one earned) outing Sunday, his ERA is 2.45, and he has 19 strikeouts in 22 innings. ... With Los Angeles Angels right-hander and potential closer Ryan Madson (elbow) still perhaps weeks away from returning, Ernesto Frieri maintains his strong value. His four-out save Sunday featured four strikeouts. ... From Rookie of the Year contender to ESPN's most-dropped list, Oakland Athletics right-hander Jarrod Parker allowed eight runs in 3 1/3 innings Sunday. Could a demotion to the minors be pending? Or is he this year's version of Buchholz? ... I would never have used Seattle Mariners rookie right-hander Brandon Maurer on Sunday after he couldn't escape the first inning against the Houston Astros on Tuesday, so naturally he threw a capable six innings of three-run (two earned) ball against the Texas Rangers. I'd shy away from Maurer this coming week, though. ... Good sign in Texas: Shortstop Elvis Andrus stole his fourth base Sunday. Last season, when he swiped a mere 21 bags, Andrus was 5-for-9 the entire second half. Perhaps he was hiding an injury.

Box score bits (NL): The Cincinnati Reds placed right-hander Johnny Cueto on the DL with a lat strain, and he could miss more than a month. Cueto, like Weaver and Greinke, is worth keeping around, but good luck doing so if you own all three. The Reds are expected to recall lefty Tony Cingrani this week, and the 23-year-old is worth adding immediately. In 12 1/3 innings at Triple-A Louisville he has allowed nary a run on just three hits, with 21 strikeouts. ... The Reds' Joey Votto homered Sunday, which wasn't a story in the past. But his last home run came on June 24, 2012. It's early, but don't be shocked when he falls short of 25 home runs. ... Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Roy Halladay bounced back with a strong outing Sunday, taming the awful Miami Marlins over eight innings. Halladay's command was off for four innings, then he got on track. Overall, he struck out two. Still, next weekend's start against the St. Louis Cardinals is a far greater gauge of where he is. ... The Chicago Cubs keep saying Carlos Marmol is not in the closing picture, but with Kyuji Fujikawa on the DL and Shawn Camp not exactly skilled enough to pitch important innings (he was pummeled Sunday), I see Marmol getting another shot. ... I wouldn't trade for Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Aaron Hill. He left Sunday's game because of left wrist soreness, after sitting a few games, and a DL stint could be pending. ... Those lucky few owning San Diego Padres outfielder Carlos Quentin should sit him this week since he's serving a suspension for his part in the bench-clearing brawl recently. Kyle Blanks was called up from Triple-A Tucson. Blanks has always hit for power, at least for the times he has been healthy, and is worth a look in deep leagues in case he sticks.

HacheMan · Apr 15, 2013

Puig profile; top 10 prospects

By Jim Callis | Baseball America

Prospects don't come with much more intrigue than Los Angeles Dodgers youngster Yasiel Puig. Scouts noted his power potential, speed and arm strength even well before he defected from Cuba.

However, there also has been plenty of uncertainty about Puig. He missed the 2011-12 season in Cuba's professional league (the Serie Nacional de Beisbol) after getting suspended either because he was considered a potential defector or because he was arrested on shoplifting charges during a tournament in the Netherlands in June 2011. There was a circus atmosphere to his workouts, with confusion as to his agent situation and where he would put his talents on display, which left several talent evaluators frustrated.

<OFFER>Still, the Dodgers saw enough to hand Puig a seven-year big league contract worth $42 million, including a franchise-record $12 million bonus. He hasn't disappointed thus far. In 29 pro games, including six this year at Double-A Chattanooga, he has batted .373/.458/.647 with six homers, 18 RBIs and nine steals. He was even more dazzling in big league camp this spring, going 30-for-58 (.517) with three homers and four steals.</OFFER>

Puig is a physical specimen at 6-foot-3 and 245 pounds. His most impressive tool is his well-above-average right-handed power, which has earned him comparisons to Vladimir Guerrero, Bo Jackson and Sammy Sosa. Like Guerrero and Sosa, Puig is a free swinger with tremendous bat speed. He has drawn 15 walks in his 29 minor league games, though that's more the product of teams being afraid to pitch to him rather than evidence of a discerning eye. Big leaguers won't be as fearful of Puig, who will need some time to adjust at the game's highest level.

From a fantasy standpoint, Puig will contribute plenty of power but likely not a high batting average, especially at first. He has the above-average speed to steal a few bases and could put up numbers along the lines of fellow Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes.

Puig has continued to rake in his first six games at Double-A, putting up .450/.522/.700 numbers with a homer, three RBIs and a steal. The only blip came when he was removed early from Wednesday's game for what the Dodgers called a "mental error." They wouldn't specify the details, though they were sure to describe it as a teaching moment rather than a disciplinary issue.

So if Puig has tremendous tools and continues to terrorize professional pitchers, why can't he crack our second installment of the Top 10 fantasy prospects for 2013? Because the Dodgers are paying their starting outfield of Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier a combined $53.5 million this season. Unless one of them gets hurt, Puig might not visit Dodger Stadium until September.

And with that, here's our updated Top 10:

[h=3]1. Wil Myers, OF Tampa Bay Rays (Last week's rank: 2)[/h]
Season totals: .333/.424/.407, 0 HR, 5 RBIs in 7 games at Triple-A Durham.
Update: Today is the first day that teams can call up players without them getting a full year of service time for 2013 (and thus one year closer to free agency). The Rays, who rank 27th in the majors with a total of four homers, could be tempted to add Myers' power to their lineup in the very near future. He has yet to homer this season, but he's swinging the bat well, and his 37 long balls last season were the most by a 21-year-old minor leaguer since 1963.
What he can do: Provide a lot more punch in the Tampa Bay lineup than Sam Fuld can. That's for sure.

[h=3]2. Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers (Last week's rank: 1)[/h]
Season totals: .250/.438/.292, 0 HR, 3 RBIs, 3 SB in seven game at Triple-A Round Rock.
Update: Though big league incumbent Elvis Andrus is tied to the Rangers through at least 2018, Profar has made all but one of his starts in Triple-A at shortstop. That's where Profar has the most value, though he'll likely break in with Texas at second base. That's if Ian Kinsler shows a willingness to shift to first base or the outfield.
What he can do: Offer solid numbers across the board and allow Texas to fill a void at another position if Kinsler will move.

[h=3]3. Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (Last week's rank: 3)[/h]
Season totals: .286/.375/.286, 0 HR, 2 RBIs, 1 SB in three games at Triple-A Memphis.
Update: Taveras didn't make his first start of 2013 until Wednesday, because the Cardinals wanted to work him back slowly after he missed time to attend a funeral in the Dominican Republic.
What he can do: Hit for average and power in the big leagues right now, though he'll have to wait for an injury to Matt Holliday, Jon Jay or Carlos Beltran to get that opportunity.

[h=3]4. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Last week's rank: 5)[/h]
Season totals: .296/.345/.444, 0 HR, 2 RBIs, 6 SB in seven games at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: After stealing a minor league-record 155 bases a year ago, Hamilton has swiped bases in just two of his seven games in 2013. But he stole three bases in each of those contests and ranks second in the minors with six. Ryan Ludwick's shoulder injury made Chris Heisey a starter in Cincinnati, and Hamilton could be next in line. Though he's making the transition from shortstop, he already may be a better defensive center fielder than anyone on the Reds' roster.
What he can do: Lead the National League in steals if he gets called up before midseason. And not that it will help your fantasy team, but he'd also be a defensive upgrade over Shin-Soo Choo in center.

[h=3]5. Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians (Last week's rank: 4)[/h]
Season totals: 0-1, 5.40, 5 IP, 2 K's, 1.80 WHIP in one start with the Indians.
Update: Bauer has yet to make his 2013 minor league debut, because the Indians promoted him for one start while Carlos Carrasco served a suspension. As had been an issue in his four big league starts with the Diamondbacks last summer, Bauer struggled to throw strikes. He walked seven batters in five innings and took a 6-0 loss against the Rays. He averaged 93 mph with his fastball but had trouble throwing his secondary pitches for strikes.
What he can do: Pitch at the front of Cleveland's rotation once/if he learns to attack the strike zone.

[h=3]6. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies (Last week's rank: 8)[/h]
Season totals: .476/.542/.952, 2 HR, 6 RBIs, 0 SB in six games at Triple-A Colorado Springs.
Update: Arenado opened eyes with his performance in the Rockies' big league camp, and he has built on that momentum in Triple-A. He homered in his first two games of the season and currently ranks seventh in the minors with a 1.494 OPS.
What he can do: Hit for more average and power than Colorado's current starting third baseman, Chris Nelson.

[h=3]7. Travis d'Arnaud, C, New York Mets (Last week's rank: 6)[/h]
Season totals: .316/.481/.474, 0 HR, 2 RBIs, 0 SB at Triple-A Las Vegas.
Update: D'Arnaud is living up to his billing as one of baseball's two best catching prospects (along with the Mariners' Mike Zunino) and giving the Mets no remorse over dealing 2012 Cy Young award winner R.A. Dickey to acquire him. He hasn't had a fully healthy season since 2009, though he has shown he's fully recovered after tearing the posterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last June.
What he can do: Provide a lot more batting average and at least as much power as John Buck, though Buck is off to a hot start, so d'Arnaud will have to bide his time in Triple-A for now.

[h=3]8. Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Last week's rank: 7)[/h]
Season totals: 0-1, 6.00, 6 IP, 7 K's, 1.83 WHIP in two starts at Triple-A Indianapolis.
Update: Cole's first two starts this season have been abbreviated ones, because both times he has run afoul of the Pirates' policy to end an outing after a 30-pitch inning. The Indianapolis staff actually gave him a reprieve after a 32-pitch first inning Wednesday, but Cole followed with a 31-pitch second inning. He has displayed a mid-90s fastball and a hard slider, but command continues to ail him. He can show stuff comparable to Stephen Strasburg's, but Cole often gets hit more than he should because of inconsistent location.
What he can do: Supplant A.J. Burnett as the Pittsburgh starter with the best arsenal, at least once Cole figures out how to harness it.

[h=3]9. Tony Cingrani, SP, Reds (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: 1-0, 0.00, 12 1/3 IP, 21 K's, 0.41 WHIP in two starts at Triple-A Louisville.
Update: A third-round pick as a senior out of Rice in 2011, Cingrani led the minors with a 1.73 ERA in his first full pro season and finished 2012 in Cincinnati. He turned in the most spectacular performance of the opening day of minor league play, fanning 14 batters in six no-hit innings. In his second start, he pitched 6 1/3 scoreless frames. Cingrani has good command and mixes speeds with an 88-95 mph fastball that hitters don't seem to pick up well, and he backs it up with a fading changeup. His slider isn't as sharp as his other offerings, but that hasn't held him back so far. The Reds thought about calling him up when lefty reliever Sean Marshall went on the disabled list with a shoulder injury, but they decided to wait until they need a starter.
What he can do: Reach double-digit wins as an unheralded rookie -- think Wade Miley -- if a spot for him opens up in Cincinnati.

[h=3]10. Allen Webster, SP, Boston Red Sox (Last week's rank: unranked)[/h]
Season totals: 0-0, 0.00, 5 IP, 5 K's, 1.000 WHIP in one start at Triple-A Pawtucket.
Update: Other teams still can't believe that the Red Sox acquired Webster and Rubby De La Rosa and shed $261 million in salary when they traded Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Nick Punto to the Dodgers last August. Webster dominated in big league camp with a 92-97 mph fastball with turbo sink and two potential plus secondary pitches in his changeup and slider. His pitches have been sharp in his two minor league starts (the second was washed out by rain after two innings and thus didn't count toward his totals), though his command has not. After John Lackey headed to the disabled list with a biceps train, Boston shuffled its rotation in a way that would allow Webster to slot in more easily if needed.
What he can do: Give the Red Sox better stuff and likely less volatility than Alfredo Aceves can as a starter.

Just missed: Tyler Skaggs, SP, Diamondbacks; Mike Zunino, C, Mariners.

Dropped out (last week's rank): Dylan Bundy, SP, Orioles (9); Mike Olt, 3B/1B, Rangers (10).

Jim Callis is the executive editor of Baseball America.

HacheMan · Apr 15, 2013

Pos. eligibility: Will Lawrie move to 2B?

Eric Karabell

At this point, fantasy owners are simply eager to see Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Brett Lawrie out on the diamond playing, let alone thinking about which position he'll be. Over the weekend, though, the Blue Jays announced a bit of a shocker, that Lawrie, on the mend from an oblique strain and having not appeared in the big leagues yet this season, will play second base as part of his rehab assignment. It seems like odd timing, but if it's emulated in the major leagues, there are clear fantasy repercussions.
For one, adding second base eligibility to his existing third base qualification would be quite a coup for his existing fantasy owners. The depth of these positions doesn't really match up, as people who own Blue Jays shortstop Jose Reyes can tell you as they desperately search for unfulfilling middle-infield replacements. Lawrie has earned a reputation in his short career as a brittle player, which we hope he'll overcome, but any time extra eligibility is added, especially this one, it adds value. If Lawrie had had second-base eligibility for 2013 drafts, he surely would have been selected well before the seventh round, for me at least a round better.

<OFFER>Lawrie was a second baseman in the low minor leagues with the Milwaukee Brewers, though there are varying opinions on his proficiency there because he was ultimately moved. Last year, he was one of baseball's finest third basemen using advanced metrics, so in a way, the Blue Jays seem willing to give up defense in order to get more offense. Slugging outfielder Jose Bautista already moved back to third base this weekend, a position he knows well, and could add eligibility in a week. We're all for this in the fantasy world, unless you think defensive distractions affect offensive production, which I don't.

But all of this seems a bit moot if the Blue Jays don't use the open spot in right field for a serious bat. The team could use some combination of Emilio Bonifacio, Rajai Davis and newcomer Casper Wells there, or promote speedy prospect Anthony Gose from Triple-A Buffalo. Gose isn't off to a noteworthy start and he was awfully overwhelmed at the plate with the big club last year, but he's an exceptional defender and could steal many bases this season. Davis isn't much of an on-base threat, though he is a bit underowned in ESPN leagues because he could steal 40 bases even in a part-time role. Wells hits lefties well, but not right-handers. Perhaps the Blue Jays can acquire an outfielder more easily than a fill-in middle infielder.

Another impetus for this potential move is the early struggles of Bonifacio, both at second base (four errors already) and at the plate, where his .209 batting average is really hollow because he has just one walk in 44 plate appearances. He offers no power and hasn't even attempted a stolen base, which is pretty much his calling card. Bonifacio just might not be playable in the infield anymore. If he was thriving at second base, none of these other moves would be necessitated. Alas, they are.

Still, Bonifacio will get to play and, like Davis, should be able to steal many bases without many at-bats. Lawrie is probably at least another week away from returning from the disabled list. He suffered the rib injury in an exhibition game prior to the World Baseball Classic five weeks ago. For the record, Bonifacio needs one more game at second base to trigger eligibility there. He's far more palatable there than as outfield-only.

Reyes' injury, as noted in Saturday's blog entry, is a big one, not only for fantasy owners but also for the Blue Jays, who don't have a suitable shortstop on the roster and have lacked offense. Moving Lawrie and Bautista is their way of helping the offense, which has hit .228 in the team's disappointing 5-7 start. We shall see, but fantasy owners should be prepared to act. I think Lawrie can still flirt with a 20-homer, 20-steal season, and good luck naming more than a few middle-infield-eligible players who can do that.

While we're talking eligibility, did you notice that New York Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano played an inning at shortstop on Saturday? Check your league rules; maybe one game is enough to add eligibility. In standard ESPN formats, one would need 20 games from the previous season, 10 games in-season. I doubt Cano plays another inning at short, but still, as someone who was once able to make Kirby Puckett my regular second baseman, it can certainly help! In the same game Saturday, catcher Francisco Cervelli moved to Cano's second base spot. That's just not quite as exciting!

It's a bit early to discuss other big-picture items when it comes to eligibility, but here are a few notes:

• Colorado Rockies infielder Josh Rutledge did add second base eligibility over the weekend. He played mainly shortstop last season.

• Houston Astros slugger Chris Carter is a few days away from adding outfield eligibility. He was first base from last season. First base is deep, so moving Carter to your outfield is a gain. Chris Parmelee of the Minnesota Twins is in the same situation.

• Matt Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals is still another week or so from adding second base eligibility to his current -- get this -- first base, third base and outfield eligibility.

• And finally, for those of you in one-game eligibility leagues, San Diego Padres first baseman Yonder Alonso, barely worth a look in standard leagues at that position, played an inning at second base and was listed as a third baseman in a game last week. Nice!
</OFFER>

HacheMan · Apr 16, 2013

Myers could help Rays' sluggish offense

Eric Karabell

Wil Myers had a decent game Monday night with a two-run single and two walks, raising his season batting average to .297. Of course, Myers was in Charlotte playing right field for the Durham Bulls, not in Boston with the Tampa Bay Rays. Myers is also one of the most dropped outfielders in ESPN standard mixed leagues even though little has changed with his situation in the past month. If you drafted Myers, you shouldn't be surprised he remains in Triple-A at this point.
The Rays made it clear that Myers, acquired during the winter in the James Shields deal from the Kansas City Royals, would not be rushed to the majors, even if he's seemingly ready and the Rays struggled to initially score runs. Well, they're officially struggling. On Sunday, right-hander Clay Buchholz took a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Rays, and on Monday right-hander Ryan Dempster fanned 10 Rays in seven strong innings, permitting just two hits. The Rays enter Tuesday hitting .205 as a team with 35 runs scored -- only the awful Miami Marlins are worse -- with just five home runs in 12 games (nobody has hit more than one) and with an on-base percentage and slugging percentage on the wrong side of .300.
<OFFER>Myers could certainly help, but would the Rays deviate from their fiscally prudent path to promote him a month or two early? On a general level, fantasy owners have had to deal with significant long-term injuries, making it difficult to use bench spots on minor leaguers like Myers, Jurickson Profar and Billy Hamilton, however promising they might be. Myers hasn't homered yet for the Bulls, but at least he's drawing walks (.417 OBP). He'd certainly fit in nicely behind Evan Longoria as the No. 5 hitter. I'd try to make room on your bench for Myers, because it's going to be tough for the Rays to keep him in Durham two more months, even if it means an extra year of team control five years from now.</OFFER>
From a fantasy aspect, there's not much to discuss with the current Tampa Bay offense. Three Rays are 100 percent owned, and should be: Longoria homered Monday, his first extra-base hit of the season, but I have no concerns with him other than durability. Outfielder Desmond Jennings stole second base in the ninth inning Monday, his fourth of the season. He's not likely to hit much better than .250, but he's capable of 20 homers and 40 steals. And Ben Zobrist remains a top-five second baseman and shortstop, an awesome combination. After that, the No. 4-owned Rays hitter is Myers, at 19 percent.

Outfielder Matt Joyce, who generally hits right-handed pitching, is not 100 percent owned. (He currently has a .430 OPS against righties.) Shortstop Yunel Escobar is hitting .098. Second baseman Kelly Johnson is hitting .185. Frankly, it would be a surprise if Zobrist isn't playing a middle-infield spot regularly soon and Myers doesn't get the call to handle right field. Also be on the lookout for shortstop Hak-Ju Lee, first baseman Leslie Anderson and outfielder Brandon Guyer. Lee's strength is defense, but he's also hitting .412 for Durham, with seven walks in 10 games. Escobar has a .324 OPS so far. Anderson couldn't be worse than James Loney. And Guyer has that late-emerging Justin Ruggiano look about him; now 27, Guyer brings a modest combination of power and speed and would be an upgrade over Sam Fuld, Shelley Duncan, Ryan Roberts and, well, most Rays hitters.
Box score bits (AL): Minnesota Twins outfielder Oswaldo Arcia made his big league debut Monday and had a single in three at-bats. Arcia, who was hitting .414 with three home runs in nine games for Triple-A Rochester, was demoted immediately after the game, but his is a name to remember if Josh Willingham is traded or Chris Parmelee doesn't hit. … Los Angeles Angels outfielder Peter Bourjos led off Monday's game with his second home run. We're still waiting for his first stolen-base attempt, but be patient. He could stick as a leadoff hitter if he hits decently. … Interesting lineup by the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday, as righty-hitting catcher J.P. Arencibia hit No. 3 against right-hander Gavin Floyd. He homered, so it's tough to mock the move, but it's certainly unconventional. Jose Bautista sat out with back spasms. Probably has nothing to do with his playing third base over the weekend, right? In other Jays news, Brett Lawrie is expected to come off the DL on Tuesday and play third base. … Chicago White Sox outfielder Dayan Viciedo, who entered Monday with four hits in 34 at-bats, had three hits Monday. Viciedo hit 25 home runs last year, but he's one of the most dropped players in ESPN leagues after two weeks. He shouldn't be. … Red Sox right-hander Andrew Bailey failed to save Monday's game, but he did earn the win. He's also likely the team's closer now, as Joel Hanrahan (hamstring) has struggled, and a DL stint is possible.
Box score bits (NL): Washington Nationals infielder Stephen Lombardozzi started at second base for the injured Danny Espinosa (hand) and contributed two hits and an RBI. Espinosa isn't expected to need a DL stint, but Lombardozzi has modest stolen-base potential should he play regularly. … Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander James McDonald permitted eight runs (three earned) on eight hits and two walks Monday, and retired only five St. Louis Cardinals. He now has one good start, one bad one and one in between. I'd rather pre-emptively add Cincinnati Reds prospect Tony Cingrani than own McDonald. … Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez didn't get a hit Monday, which has been a trend; he's now hitting .073. He'll hit for power, but he can be painful to own at times like these. … Reds manager Dusty Baker hit shortstop Zack Cozart second Monday, which is difficult to defend. Cozart doubled in four at-bats but is hitting .167 with a .180 OBP this season. The No. 2 most-dropped shortstop, after the Angels' Erick Aybar, Cozart does too much harm in batting average to own. … Mitchell Boggs was brought in with a four-run lead to close out the Cardinals' 10-6 win Monday, but right-hander Edward Mujica was warming up for the potential save. Boggs' leash is short, and it appears Mujica is next in line.

HacheMan · Apr 16, 2013

Fowler, Rockies off to solid start on road

Eric Karabell

The Colorado Rockies enter Tuesday leading the big leagues in home runs, slugging percentage and OPS, and with nine of their 12 games having come on the road, away from cozy and -- this week, at least -- snowy Coors Field, that's quite a treat. The Rockies are bashing and feature five hitters off to terrific starts, with the biggest surprise being center fielder Dexter Fowler, currently 13th on the Player Rater.

<OFFER></OFFER>Fowler has piqued the interest of many a fantasy owner for years, not only for playing half his games in a hitter-friendly home ballpark. A terrific athlete, he features an enticing combination of power and speed, though he's mainly underachieved in terms of actual home runs and stolen bases at this level. He's hit double-digit home runs once (last year), and since his 27-steal effort in 2009, he hasn't topped 13. He keeps on drawing walks, though, which generally results in higher batting averages and for many, an eventual development of power. Predicting a Fowler breakout since 2010 hasn't been going out on the proverbial limb, nor is it particularly insightful now, but his statistical ceiling doesn't appear as high as his skills suggest.

A switch-hitter with balanced rates from each side at this point of his career (he used to struggle against right-handers), Fowler has hit all six of his home runs, entering Tuesday's home doubleheader with the New York Mets, against right-handed pitchers. Four came in road games, notable because that figure already tops what Fowler did in all of 2012, when he hit three road home runs in 71 games. Like most Rockies hitters, Fowler brings extreme home/road splits throughout his career, and since he hasn't exactly been Carlos Gonzalez in the past, fantasy owners often opt to bench him away from Denver. That would clearly be a mistake now. When it comes to stolen base potential, it looks like Fowler isn't interested in accruing high totals; he attempted only 17 steals in 2012.

It comes down to the power and whether the previous two weeks are a harbinger of more. Fowler's isolated power sits at an unsustainable .426, though it's worth noting he has raised his mark a bit annually. He's obviously more of a triples guy, and while we note that doubles tend to turn into home runs with growth, I can't recall others turning three-base hits into 400-foot blasts consistently. Fowler hit a pair of long home runs Friday night in San Diego, solo shots off right-handers Tyson Ross and closer Huston Street, and while it's a bit easier to go yard in Petco Park than it used to be, Fowler's tools are just so enticing. He also tried to steal a base but was thrown out by catcher Nick Hundley. This should, frankly, be a 20/20 guy at least, and he'd only need two or three home runs per month the rest of the way to reach the power mark.

Still, while 20 home runs seem likely, it's premature to expect the power surge to continue at a strong rate. Fowler's power spiked early last year as well, when he hit four home runs in each of the first two months, then five home runs over the final four months. A 19th-round choice in ESPN average live drafts, his ownership reflects recent interest, and I concur there's every reason to add Fowler in case he's the next Carlos Gonzalez. It's unlikely, though. It's awfully early, but Fowler's fly ball rate is actually lower than normal, with more than half his fly balls leaving ball parks. Fowler did more than triple his HR/FB rate from 2011 to 2012, but this isn't a guy swinging like Mark Reynolds, either. I just don't want to overrate a good two weeks and expect six home runs per month, not yet.

For now, seeing a pattern in Fowler's base stealing the past three seasons (13, 12 and 12 steals, with a below average rate), I think it's more likely he reaches 20 home runs than 20 stolen bases. He should be doing both. Regardless, calling the No. 48 outfielder in ESPN average live drafts a top-20 outfielder from two weeks is premature, so own him but stop short of trading a proven top-50 player to acquire him. He's breaking out to some degree, but temper overall expectations.

Rox talk: Wasn't Michael Cuddyer supposed to be doing this last season (.333, 3 home runs)? Oh wait, he did. Cuddyer hit .299 in April, and had 12 home runs and eight steals by the All-Star break. The issue was an oblique injury shutting him down early. Cuddyer should be owned in all leagues, but beware of a possible trade. He's older, and despite the strong start, the Rockies aren't likely contenders. Plus, I think they want to see what Eric Young Jr. could do regularly, and Tyler Colvin is wasting time in Triple-A. … Todd Helton launched a pinch-hit game-winning home run Sunday, but he's not worth adding in 10- or 12-team mixed formats. Helton still knows the strike zone, but has been hitting fewer line drives early on, and too many fly balls that aren't traveling far. Be happy if he hits .275 with 10 home runs. … Third baseman Chris Nelson brings no power, but is really a second baseman. None of his nine hits so far have gone for extra bases. It'd be a bit ridiculous if he's the reason prospect Nolan Arenado can't be promoted. Arenado will get his chance, I suspect, in May. There's little cause to keep a guy hitting .459 at Colorado Springs there much longer. … If second baseman Josh Rutledge got 500 at-bats, he'd probably hit 15 home runs and steal 20 bases, but it's tough to be impressed with his hacking approach. He swings at everything and has no intention of working a count. Still, own him in all leagues for the counting stats, though I doubt he hits better than .260.

HacheMan · Apr 16, 2013

Lawrie, Profar and the second base search

Keith Law

Second base is a funny position in baseball; you rarely see high draft picks spent on true second basemen, or big dollars committed to amateur second basemen in the Dominican Republic or Venezuela.
Second basemen are often converted there from shortstop, and move because they couldn't handle the more difficult position, due to lack of arm strength or trouble ranging far enough in both directions. Among last year's WAR leaders at second base (per Baseball Reference), the top six were all signed or drafted at other positions; among the top 20, only Howie Kendrick, a 10th-round pick, and Jose Altuve, signed for five figures out of Venezuela, were already second basemen when they turned pro.

</PODCAST></P>Now we have several teams looking at potential conversion candidates to second base, either to fill an existing hole on their depth charts or to try to get certain bats into their lineups.
The injury to Jose Reyes has left the Toronto Blue Jays shuffling infield parts around, including the somewhat surprising decision to try Brett Lawrie out at one of his old positions: second base.
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Lawrie was drafted at that position by the Milwaukee Brewers after an abortive attempt to make him a catcher while he was in high school, but despite his athleticism, he struggled badly at second and seemed destined for the outfield before the Jays converted him to third base, with very positive results.

[h=4]Brett Lawrie[/h][h=5]#13 3B
Toronto Blue Jays[/h]2012 STATS

GM125
HR11
RBI48
R73
OBP.324
AVG.273

Trying Lawrie out at second while he's on a rehab assignment makes sense, as it's a rare opportunity to see if the defensive improvements he's made at third transfer to his old position. This would give the team substantially greater flexibility down the road. The team could upgrade at second or third or in right field, with Lawrie at second or third and Jose Bautista at third or in right. You don't want to try a player out at a new spot in the middle of a major league season when you're trying to win, so giving Lawrie a few reps there this week to see how it looks is a smart move.
The Jays' real problem is that they don't have a good replacement at shortstop for Reyes; every internal candidate will be a defensive downgrade there, whether it's Maicer Izturis or Emilio Bonifacio. Lawrie's ability to play second as well as third, assuming it works out, is great in the long run but doesn't help them in the short term, as the hypothetical upgrade I cited above doesn't currently sit in the organization. The Jays might be able to make a trade in June or July to help the club, but that's independent of the Reyes injury.
As for Lawrie's potential at second, he's improved his footwork since his days there with the Brewers, especially in his first move after contact. He's athletic and explosively quick, a skill that's more valuable at third, where reaction times are shorter, than at second, where range and turning the double play are more important. Former coach Brian Butterfield, now with the Red Sox, helped Lawrie improve his footwork overall and at worst should be average at second, good enough for part-time duty as long as he can avoid injury turning the double play. Given the quality of his bat, though, significant time at second base might be too much risk for the Jays to stomach.
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</CENTER>The Washington Nationals are facing a similar dilemma with top prospect Anthony Rendon, a natural third baseman (and a very, very good one) who is currently blocked at the major league level by Ryan Zimmerman, formerly a great defensive third baseman whose arm is so weak right now he couldn't throw you under the bus.
Zimmerman has had shoulder problems on and off for years, and offseason surgery to try to correct the problem hasn't helped, as we saw in Friday night's game against Atlanta, where Zimmerman's awkward motion was on display in an errant throw to second that helped cost the Nationals the game. He drops down on throws, which is often a sign that throwing conventionally is uncomfortable, and also puts more action on the ball after it's released, the way a sidearm pitcher gets sink on his fastball that isn't there when he's throwing from a three-quarters or higher slot.

[h=4]Ryan Zimmerman[/h][h=5]#11 3B
Washington Nationals[/h]2013 STATS

GM13
HR1
RBI11
R3
OBP.321
AVG.239

If Zimmerman, who is signed through 2019 and is guaranteed $100 million (including a "personal services" contract for after his playing career), were a lock to stay at third, the Nationals would have to consider finding another position for Rendon. They've played him two games at second base this season in Triple-A and one at shortstop, but he's not cut out for middle infield work. He doesn't have the quickness or lateral agility you want in either of those positions, but more importantly, he's had injury issues of his own, including three traumatic ankle injuries in the past five years.
Second base is a dangerous position to begin with, because of the beating players there take when turning double plays, and requires more quick movements to left or right than third base does -- all bad news for a guy with a propensity for ankle injuries. If Rendon can't get out of the way of a runner quickly enough while acting as the pivot on a potential twin killing, he could blow out either of his ankles, again. That's not a risk I'd want to take with a potential impact bat like his.
The easiest solution would be to move Zimmerman, who still has great hands and range, to first base, where arm strength is less important. The decision to re-sign Adam LaRoche for two years, while a reasonable value in the abstract, means that first base is occupied for now, and unless the National League adopts the DH rule in the next few weeks -- we should be so lucky -- there is no place for Zimmerman to go.
Rendon is hitting .333/.473/.571 for Double-A Harrisburg, so it seems like he won't be there for long. A few months in Triple-A won't hurt Rendon, who missed most of last season after suffering one of those ankle injuries in the season's second game, but Washington will have to decide one way or the other on his future position after this season.
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</CENTER>The St. Louis Cardinals' dilemma at second base is more of a short-term one, as they see Kolten Wong, the No. 96 prospect in baseball coming into this season, as their long-term solution there, possibly as soon as the middle of this year.
In the interim, they have started Matt Carpenter there in a few games, even though he'd never played the position professionally outside of five games (two starts) last year. The Cardinals drafted Carpenter in the 13th round in 2009 as a redshirt (fifth-year) senior out of TCU, where he played third base most of his last three years on the Frogs' roster.

At 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, he'd be the biggest full-time second baseman in history if he qualified for the batting title there, listed at five pounds above that of Ben Zobrist (a great defensive second baseman) and Neil Walker (something south of that), more similar athletically to Walker than the quicker Zobrist.
He's turned himself into an adequate third baseman, thanks mostly to improved reads off the bat, but doesn't have the agility to be more than that, and I think second will be tougher for him than it would be for a more athletic player such as Lawrie. If he's not the full-time third baseman, he'll make an incredible super-utility guy, however, because he can handle second on an occasional basis, as well as filling in at third or first or in an outfield corner. In the era of the four-man bench (12 pitchers, eight starting hitters and a backup catcher), that's incredibly valuable.
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</CENTER>The easiest conversion call here involves the best prospect in baseball, Texas shortstop Jurickson Profar, who is blocked in Arlington by Elvis Andrus, with both players plus defenders at the position.
Profar could start for a lot of clubs right now, just not the one that currently employs him, and sliding him over to second base would solve a lot of Texas' problems, if it could get Ian Kinsler to agree to do the right thing for the team and shift to first base. The Rangers aren't getting enough offense from Mitch Moreland, a platoon player in the best of circumstances, at first, and would improve offensively and defensively from benching or demoting him and putting Profar at second.
They have another option to get Profar in the lineup when they decide he's ready, however: center field, where neither Leonys Martin nor Craig Gentry, both excellent defenders, have contributed much offense. Profar has at least played a little second base (26 games in pro ball) but has never played the outfield in a regular-season game at any level. It's a position he could learn in time, given his foot speed and the tremendous instincts he's shown since he signed at age 16, but a transition to second base would help the major league team more quickly.

HacheMan · Apr 21, 2013

Tracking Tampa's top prospects

Keith Law

Durham hosted an 11 a.m. "Education Day" game on Thursday against Charlotte, giving me an opportunity to see a few of Tampa's top prospects, including the two major names they acquired in the James Shields/Wade Davis trade.

• Durham starter Jake Odorizzi showed four pitches, but nothing was plus or even truly above average. His fastball was straight at 89-92, touching 93 in the fourth, and he struggled badly with command throughout his outing. Early in the game, he worked mostly with an 83-85 mph slider, trying to backdoor it to lefties, and an 80-82 mph straight change. Later in the outing, he flipped a few slow curveballs, with good depth but perhaps too slow to be more than a show-me pitch.
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Unfortunately, none of the other three offerings is a swing-and-miss pitch -- he took advantage of a bad Charlotte lineup more than anything else. He had some success when elevating the fastball, but that's a bad formula against big league hitters who hit mistakes out of the park.

Odorizzi's delivery is very clean and simple, with a little deception from how long he hides the ball and very good extension out front when he releases the ball. He stays online to the plate with a consistent landing spot. There seemed to be a plan in place to work hitters side to side and up and down, but his trouble locating the fastball meant he couldn't fully execute it.

[h=4]Rays' Top 10[/h]

Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Wil Myers, RF (4)
2. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP (47)
3. Chris Archer, RHP (53)
4. Jake Odorizzi, RHP (68)
5. Hak-Ju Lee, SS (78)
6. Alex Colome, RHP (81)
7. Richie Shaffer, 3B
8. Drew Vettleson, RF
9. Enny Romero, LHP
10. Mikey Mahtook, CF

• Shortstop Hak-Ju Lee wasn't given much of a chance to impress Thursday, bunting in two of his first three at-bats (both were clearly attempts to bunt for a hit and advance a runner), with a first-pitch swinging bunt of sorts in the other at-bat. His fourth at-bat saw him finally allowed to swing away, and he responded with a line-drive single that broke a seventh-inning 2-2 tie.

Lee's swing looks better than it did in the Arizona Fall League last year, when he was a mess -- he's keeping his weight back much better now, which should produce more solid contact and less cutting through fastballs like he did in October. I've always believed in his defense, and he's a plus-plus runner, but he'll need to maintain this swing to be an everyday shortstop in the majors.

• Right fielder Wil Myers should have been the headliner but had a slow day, finishing with a bloop single that should have been caught, after which he was replaced by a pinch runner.

The main difference I see is with his front leg -- at the time of contact, his front foot is now pointing almost directly at the pitcher, and sometimes it's not even flat on the ground, which pulls his whole body out counterclockwise and means he's getting less force from his lower half. That makes it sound like a bigger deal than it is -- it took me a few looks at the video to pick it up -- but it's not right. Myers' swing was never picture-perfect, but it worked because he has strong, quick wrists and a very good idea of the strike zone. Rolling that front foot may be a problem for him, especially in producing power, however.

• Tim Beckham ... I remember when he had bat speed.

• Charlotte's roster was very light on prospects -- I'm not saying its players are old, but a few of them brought their grandkids to the game -- with outfielder Jared Mitchell the one name who might be of interest to Chicago White Sox fans. Unfortunately, it wasn't pretty, as Mitchell swung through 90-91 mph fastballs while striking out in his first two at-bats. I spoke to a scout earlier today who had Mitchell last year. He told me he put Mitchell in as a release candidate; I wish I could offer something to dispute that.

HacheMan · Apr 22, 2013

Starting pitchers off to hot starts

By Todd Zola | Mastersball.com

By and large, fantasy baseball enthusiasts know that all early-season analysis needs to be tempered by the small sample size from which it is generated. However, not everyone is aware that back in November 2007, current Baseball Prospectus author Russell Carleton, posting under the pseudonym "Pizza Cutter," answered the inevitable question, "How big does the sample have to be before we believe the data?"

In the "Statistically Speaking" blog, Carleton detailed numerous regression studies in which he determined the number of events necessary for certain baselines to stabilize. Hitters were looked at in terms of plate appearances, while pitchers were judged via batters faced. A "Cliffs Notes" version of Carleton's work is posted on Fangraphs and is a wonderful resource for those into the number-crunching element of this hobby.

Both hitting and pitching data is included, but because today's discussion focuses on hurlers, we'll share that data and then look at the hitting results in a future installment. Here's what Carleton discovered in terms of the pitching sample size necessary for select skills to stabilize. In other words, how many batters faced (BF) it takes for a new baseline to be considered real:

150 BF: strikeout (K) per plate appearance (PA), ground ball (GB) rate and line drive rate
200 BF: fly ball (FB) rate, GB/FB
500 BF: K/BB, popup rate
550 BF: BB/PA

At this point of the season, starting pitchers have faced about 100 batters, so none of the data has yet to stabilize. However, in today's landscape, the fantasy owner often cannot wait another couple of weeks for some of the data to be fully stable, let alone the months it will take for the bases on balls baseline to be trusted. As such, decisions must be made that are in part speculation. That said, at least with respect to strikeout and groundball rate, we're getting close to being able to make trustworthy analysis.

With that as a backdrop, let's put several pitchers who are off to a better-than-expected start under the microscope in an effort to discern which have the best chance to continue a high level of success and thus may be buy-high targets if their owners are looking to cash in. For each example, what to look for in terms of maintaining success will be highlighted, so at minimum you'll be able to monitor each in the coming weeks and have a leg up on your competition in terms of buying or selling these fast-starting arms.

Each pitcher will have a line with his 2013 numbers and a line with his career numbers. BIP is short for BABIP.

[h=4]Matt Harvey, New York Mets (103 batters faced, 29 innings pitched)[/h]

	ERA	xFIP	BIP	LOB%	K/9	BB/9	GB%	LD%	FB%	Pop%	HR/9	HR/FB
'13	0.93	3.19	.148	90.9	9.9	2.8	39.3	11.5	49.2	13.3	0.31	3.3
Car	2.14	3.39	.228	83.3	10.4	3.6	38.5	20.5	41.0	14.6	0.61	7.3

We may as well start off with the most difficult specimen in the league. Conventional analysis suggests that Harvey has been extremely lucky with respect to batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and HR/FB%. The BABIP league average is around .295, while the mean HR/FB is 11 percent. Probability dictates both of these will regress toward league norms, which will in turn lead to a correction in his ERA as it trends more toward the xFIP above.

Of particular concern: Harvey appears to be a fly ball pitcher, or at least he has been so far, though this is partially mitigated by him inducing a higher than average number of infield flies, which is folded into the fly ball data. The concern is that once his HR/FB rate normalizes, his HR/9 will rise. That might not be as bad as it sounds, because high-strikeout pitchers such as Harvey minimize fly balls by allowing fewer balls to be put in play, not to mention many of those will continue to be popups. Harvey's HR/9 should remain below league average, but it likely will increase.

What is most intriguing is that Harvey's low BABIP is being driven by a low line-drive rate, and according to Pizza Cutter, line-drive rates are pretty quick to stabilize. We're still not to that point, so no definite conclusion can be drawn, but given that the BABIP of a fly ball pitcher is generally below league average and Harvey is two-thirds of the way toward exhibiting a line drive rate that is below league average, I'm comfortable in predicting he'll sport a BABIP that is below league average. I am reticent to characterize it as well below, but it wouldn't shock me if Harvey's BABIP was among the lowest in the league.

While the exact baseline is unclear, it's apparent that Harvey's strikeout rate will continue to be quite high, probably better than a batter per inning. This too should stabilize within a couple weeks.

The metric that will ultimately determine if Harvey is a bona fide ace or the tier below is his walk rate. Unfortunately, this will not stabilize for several months. That said, Harvey is off to an excellent start in this department. If I had to highlight one metric to monitor, it's Harvey's walk rate. As suggested, fly ball pitchers can be quite effective if they fan a bunch of hitters and minimize damage by not allowing many baserunners. The data points toward a paucity of hits, and if Harvey can limit the walks, we could be looking at a true No. 1 fantasy starter.

If Harvey's owner is looking to cash in and sell high, I'm all over it. Verdict: Buy high.

[h=4]Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox (101 BF, 26 IP)[/h]

	ERA	xFIP	BIP	LOB%	K/9	BB/9	GB%	LD%	FB%	Pop%	HR/9	HR/FB
'13	1.73	2.91	.260	79.2	8.0	1.4	47.2	25.0	27.8	2.9	0.00	0.0
Car	3.72	3.72	.300	74.9	8.2	3.3	48.0	19.2	32.8	6.3	0.83	9.9

The number that stands out here is Lester's no homers allowed in 26 frames of work. You'll also note that Pizza Cutter did not include any home run data in his analysis, which indicates that nothing home run-related stabilized over the boundaries of his study (which was 750 plate appearances, in essence a full season). Obviously, Lester is going to serve up some dingers; we just can't analytically pinpoint the number of them, other than to say his HR/FB should regress toward the league average of 11 percent.

Looking at Lester's BABIP in concert with his line drives, it appears he has been quite fortunate, and while his line-drive percent is apt to fall, his BABIP likely will rise.

Coming into the season, many pundits felt the telltale sign for Lester would be his strikeout rate, as it has been in freefall mode over the past three seasons. Again with the caveat that we're only two-thirds of the way to our "for-real" baseline, it appears safe to say that at minimum, Lester has reversed the trend and looks to be fanning hitters at a rate closer to his career levels. This bodes well for the rest of the season.

As with Harvey, walks will be the ultimate key here. Presently, Lester is quite stingy with the free passes, but this will be the final baseline to stabilize. Perhaps this is partially a result of a low hit rate leading to the southpaw working a lot more from the windup, which helps his control. Once the hits start falling in, though, maybe his walks will increase a little as well.

It's fair to assume Lester is a different guy from last season's model. The real question is whether he is better than he was a couple years ago, when he was very good, but not great. That is, Lester was more of an upper-third-tier guy than elite. Ultimately, walks will be the determinant, and I'm not confident Lester will maintain this new baseline going forward, at least not to the level he has thus far.

While I wouldn't give him away, if I could get a 3.50-ERA pitcher and a hitting upgrade in return, I'd look to package Lester with a lesser hitter in a 2-for-2 deal. Verdict: Sell high.

[h=4]Paul Maholm, Atlanta Braves (103 BF, 26.1 IP)[/h]

	ERA	xFIP	BIP	LOB%	K/9	BB/9	GB%	LD%	FB%	Pop%	HR/9	HR/FB
'13	1.03	3.44	.212	93.5	8.5	2.7	51.6	17.2	31.3	5.0	0.34	5.0
Car	4.20	4.15	.304	71.4	5.8	2.9	52.1	19.4	28.5	7.5	0.83	10.1

Maholm is a great test case to judge whether you believe in the data illuminated by analytical studies or whether you prefer to rely on your instincts and intuition. Aside from a BABIP that is in line for some serious regression, Maholm is the same pitcher he has always been, with one notable exception: His strikeout rate has spiked. The question is "fact or fiction?"

When I attempt to answer this question, I prefer not to blindly trust the data, as there are always exceptions. On the other hand, data is data, and the results are clear: It doesn't take as long, relatively speaking, to establish a new strikeout baseline. So I have to look beyond the chart above in an effort to learn the cause for the assumed effect.

Maholm's velocity is fundamentally the same as it has been the past several seasons. PitchFX data suggests he is throwing fewer cutters and sliders, while increasing the number of two-seam fastballs, curves and changeups. The difference is noteworthy, but not sufficient enough to hang one's hat on. That said, perhaps Maholm's change in pitch selection is the reason his strike percentage is up three points to 66 percent from his career mark of 63 percent. Based on pitch-efficiency data, Maholm is locating his fastball better than usual.

The percentage of Maholm's pitches inside the strike zone that batters are swinging at is five percentage points lower than normal, which helps explain the increased whiffs, along with a 3 percent increase in swinging strikes. Still, the root cause of these increased strikes, both called and swinging, is not obvious, so I consider it a leap of faith to call it sustainable. But once again, data is data. There very well may be an underlying reason for Maholm's spike in strikeouts.

I'm not comfortable enough either way to go out on a limb with Maholm. I'd like to see what happens over the next 50 batters faced before I make a definitive conclusion. Verdict: Hold.

[h=4]Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays (72 BF, 18 IP)[/h]

	ERA	xFIP	BIP	LOB%	K/9	BB/9	GB%	LD%	FB%	Pop%	HR/9	HR/FB
'13	1.00	3.72	.175	96.6	10.0	5.5	52.5	12.5	35.0	0.0	0.50	7.1
Car	3.52	4.18	.288	75.1	9.2	4.2	38.7	19.1	42.2	13.8	0.88	8.6

Given that Moore's BABIP likely will regress, which in turn will impact his LOB percentage and correct his ERA, the aspect of Moore's early returns I find most intriguing is that he's inducing many more ground balls than previously in his career. Factor in that the Pizza Cutter-determined ground ball baselines are fairly quick to stabilize and this is something that definitely heeds attention.

It's important to note that Moore has had one fewer start than the three pitchers discussed above, so he's only halfway to the stabilization point. The main benefit if Moore continues to "burns more worms" is a lower home run rate, though his WHIP should edge up since grounders tend to be hits more often than fly balls.

Somewhat disconcerting, though, is that, at least early on, Moore has not addressed his issue regarding walks. That category doesn't stabilize for quite some time, so he still could turn that around. But it sure would have been more comforting to see better control from Moore to open the season. His control is definitely worth monitoring over the coming weeks and months.

While not to the same extent of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, there is a residual populace of Moore fans that like chasing the hot prospect, so if I could find someone to deal me a proven second tier starter, I'd sell high. Otherwise … Verdict: Hold to get a better handle on Moore's ground ball and walk rates.

[h=4]Ross Detwiler, Washington Nationals (81 BF, 20 IP)[/h]

	ERA	xFIP	BIP	LOB%	K/9	BB/9	GB%	LD%	FB%	Pop%	HR/9	HR/FB
'13	0.90	3.93	.250	92.2	5.0	1.4	53.8	18.5	27.7	5.7	0.45	5.6
Car	3.58	4.41	.280	71.6	5.5	3.1	47.2	20.1	32.7	7.5	0.78	8.4

The primary reason for including Detwiler here is because he was a favorite of the high-stakes crowd and was on quite a few sleeper lists, so there could be some owners who missed out at the draft who are willing to deal for Detwiler now.

To be honest, you don't need to know when skills stabilize to conclude that Detwiler's early success is a result of a ridiculously high LOB percentage in concert with permitting a scant few baserunners. By means of reminder, LOB% measures the percentage of allowed baserunners to score. A solid bullpen can help buoy LOB%.

If you own Detwiler, there could be a market for him, as some might believe this is a bit of an "I told you so" scenario and want to acquire a favorite they missed out on at the draft, not realizing or perhaps even caring that he has been quite fortunate in the early part of the 2013 campaign. Verdict: Sell high.

[h=4]Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians (108 BF, 27 IP)[/h]

	ERA	xFIP	BIP	LOB%	K/9	BB/9	GB%	LD%	FB%	Pop%	HR/9	HR/FB
'13	1.67	3.38	.292	84.4	8.3	3.0	57.7	15.5	26.8	10.5	0.00	0.0
Car	4.09	4.18	.305	70.4	7.0	3.6	56.1	17.3	26.6	6.7	0.69	9.6

On the surface, Masterson's analysis is straightforward and incorporates elements of the previous examples. Like Detwiler, his LOB% should regress. Like Lester, the home runs are coming. Like Maholm, his strikeout rate has spiked, and I would like a reason for that.

Anyone who has followed Masterson closely over the years realizes by now that how he fares against left-handed hitters dictates his success. So in order for me to really trust a change in baseline, I'd like to see an improvement against lefties. The thing is, at least thus far, Masterson's improved skills seem to mostly as a result of an even greater dominance against right-handed batters.

As such, I definitely want to wait and see what occurs over the next 50 batters faced, just to see if this maintains. I'd be a lot more comfortable if Masterson's new baseline were more a result of a major improvement against lefties, so therefore I am going to … Verdict: Hold, though if someone believes this is real, I wouldn't hesitate to sell high.

[h=3]Quick hits[/h]
Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals: His 8.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 rates are both better than league average, but the rookie lacks a baseline from which to compare. His .217 BABIP is sure to regress. If you can find someone willing to deal a pitcher with a more stable track record, I would … Verdict: Sell high.

Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox: Buchholz's pedigree hinted that more strikeouts were coming, and they're finally here. But are they here to stay? Pizza Cutter's data suggests he's well on the way there, so I'm pretty confident in saying he'll set a new K/9 baseline, higher than his career 6.8 mark though not to the 8.7 level it presently sits at. Buchholz's strike percentage is at his career average. His velocity and pitch distribution are normal. He is not inducing more swinging strikes than previously. The increase in whiffs is solely due to a marked increase in called strikes, as if Buchholz is either fooling more hitters or perhaps keeping them off-balance. Intuitively, this is not something I expect him to sustain throughout the season. So while I do expect an increase in strikeouts, I'd be willing to sell high if the offer helped my team in other areas. On the other hand, if his present owner was looking to take his profit and run, I'd at least inquire about trading for him and could possibly buy high.

Travis Wood, Chicago Cubs: Wood's K/9 and BB/9 rates are both worse than his career marks. So why so much success? He somehow has managed to not allow a homer in his initial 19 2/3 innings. This will change. Verdict: Sell Mortimer, sell!

Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers: Like Wood, Sanchez hasn't surrendered a home run yet this season. However, his other peripherals are in line with his career marks. If I own Sanchez, I hold. If his owner is looking to cash in his chips, I might buy high, depending on the cost.

HacheMan · Apr 22, 2013

Monday injury cheat sheet: April 22

Stephania Bell

Every Monday, in this space, we'll provide updates on a variety of players to help you make your weekly lineup decisions. We'll specifically try to hit the players who are day-to-day, have just gone on the DL or are ready to return, so that you can better decide whether you can count on them or not.

All projected return timelines should be considered fluid. [h=3]Hitters[/h]Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels (DTD): "I'm dying." Those were the words of Pujols himself Sunday when describing trying to play through plantar fasciitis in his left foot. Not particularly encouraging. Every athlete who contends with plantar fasciitis will describe extraordinary pain (like "stepping on a nail" or "walking on broken glass") and knows it is virtually impossible to get relief, unless he stops activity altogether. As for now, the plan is for Pujols to try to manage the condition, meaning he will receive treatment directed at pain relief, stretching, supportive footwear and anything else that might help all while continuing to play, albeit limited to DH duty. Unfortunately, every time the foot hits the ground stretching the inflamed fibrous tissue of the arch, Pujols is reminded of the pain. At some point it simply may be too much for him to bear and his foot could force him to take some extended down time.

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals (placed on DL April 20): Zimmerman had been experiencing cramping in his left hamstring for several days before being forced out of last Wednesday's game early. He did not play Friday or Saturday, instead undergoing an MRI, which led to placement on the DL. While it sounds as if the strain is not serious, it was hampering him not only with his running but also while hitting. Manager Davey Johnson noted Zimmerman was not comfortable landing on his left leg when hitting. One has to wonder if some of his recent throwing inconsistencies can also be attributed, at least in part, to discomfort in his left leg. According to Amanda Comak of the Washington Times, the Nationals are hopeful that Zimmerman will only miss the minimum time, but hamstrings can be finicky. The key for the Nationals is preventing this from turning into a bigger injury, undoubtedly part of the rationale for a DL placement.

Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta Braves (DTD): Sometimes being a veteran means understanding when to take yourself out of a game proactively. It appears Uggla did just that on Saturday when he felt something in his left calf while trying to run out a ground ball. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Uggla let manager Fredi Gonzalez know he was having discomfort in the calf and was concerned it could get worse if he stayed in the game. Uggla then sat out Sunday's game also but was hopeful he could return Monday. Calf strains tend to be increasingly prevalent as athletes move into their thirties (Lance Berkman, Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols) and early rest may be the best medicine in trying to minimize downtime.

Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, Cleveland Indians (DTD): Slipping on the dugout steps is not how an athlete wants to incur an injury. Unfortunately that's precisely how Cabrera ended up with a contusion of his left wrist, and it's lucky it wasn't worse. X-rays taken of his wrist were negative, but as the Cleveland Plain-Dealer reported, it started to bother Cabrera during Saturday's game, so he came out early. Falls on an outstretched hand can often result in a fracture of the forearm or wrist bones but it appears Cabrera escaped both. He sat out Sunday's game and could sit longer if the wrist is still painful so fantasy owners should monitor his status daily.

Kevin Youkilis, 3B, New York Yankees (DTD): When Youkilis left Saturday's game early because of tightness in his lower back, those familiar with his history may have been a little nervous. That concern would be justified because Youkilis has a fairly extensive history of low back problems including an episode, which required a trip to the DL in 2011. This flare-up appears to be of the minor variety with manager Joe Girardi telling reporters he thinks Youkilis will be available Monday night.

Shane Victorino, OF, Boston Red Sox (DTD): Victorino also left Saturday's game early due to tightness in his lower back. He sat out Sunday's doubleheader but is expected to return to the lineup Monday. Early Sunday, manager John Farrell had considered using Victorino in the second game, suggesting he was making rapid improvements. Ultimately he was given all of Sunday off but it appears he will be back to face the Oakland Athletics.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves (placed on DL April 7, activated April 22): It looks as if the decision to rest Freeman early -- despite his displeasure -- has paid off. ESPN's Jim Bowden reported Monday that manager Frank Wren indicated Freeman has been activated and is ready to play against the Colorado Rockies on Monday night. Freeman had been sidelined with a right oblique strain, but it was always considered minor; the Braves were trying to ensure that it remained that way. After a couple of uneventful rehab games, Freeman has been deemed ready to return.

Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle Mariners (placed on DL April 11, could return late in week): A crash into the outfield wall resulted in a sprained right shoulder for Saunders. Although the team did not issue a timetable initially, it looked as if it could sideline him for an extended time. There are some encouraging signs that Saunders is progressing nicely however, most notably that he took batting practice last Friday. According to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times, Saunders hopes to return when eligible (April 26) but will need to test throwing with his injured shoulder first. One of the most difficult things to do after an injury such as this is raise the arm completely overhead. Throwing with power will perhaps present more of a challenge than hitting so fantasy owners should monitor his activity closely throughout the week.

[h=3]Pitchers[/h]
Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Colorado Rockies (placed on DL retroactive to April 20): Chacin was off to a solid start but has been sidelined with a lower back strain that forced him out of Friday's game early. According to the Rockies' official website, Chacin is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Monday. As for now there is no timetable for his return in place. The Rockies have recalled right-hander Rob Scahill from Triple-A Colorado Springs to take his place.

Kyuji Fujikawa, RP, Chicago Cubs (placed on DL April 13, could return when eligible, April 28): Fujikawa suffered a right forearm strain, sending him to the DL, but according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago, Fujikawa has already begun testing the forearm throwing. If all continues well, Rogers reports Fujikawa will get a couple of rehab outings under his belt this week and could return this weekend.

Brett Myers, SP, Cleveland Indians (placed on DL April 21): Myers has been fighting some tendinitis in his throwing elbow, but the picture has recently become more complex. The Indians announced via Twitter that Myers was placed on the DL Sunday with tendinitis and a mild UCL sprain. The report also indicated Myers would be shut down for two weeks and would not throw until symptom free. While the suggestion that the UCL sprain is minor is encouraging, it ultimately comes down to function. The fact that Myers experienced a drop in velocity is worrisome, but he also indicated he was not having any pain while pitching. At the very least, fantasy owners should expect him to miss four to six weeks (shutdown time followed by throwing progression), although the timeline ultimately will be dictated by how his elbow responds.
Ted Lilly, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (opened season on DL, expected return April 24): Lilly underwent a labral repair of his left (throwing) shoulder last September and was slowed in the spring by the flu. He felt he was ready to pitch in the majors when Zack Greinke went down with a clavicle fracture, but the Dodgers preferred to keep him on a rehab assignment, moving Chris Capuano to the starting rotation instead. As it turns out, Capuano was moved to the DL with a calf strain last week and Lilly was able to get some extra innings under his belt. According to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times, Lilly has confirmed he will start Wednesday against the New York Mets. Given the Dodgers' starter woes, a healthy -- and effective -- Lilly is badly needed.

Chad Billingsley, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (placed on DL retroactive to April 16, could be out for the season): Did we mention the Dodgers are having some woes with their starting rotation? It looked initially as if Billingsley had survived the scare with his throwing elbow that cropped up last season. He underwent PRP injections in the fall, rested his right elbow, then resumed a progressive throwing program. The Dodgers waited during the offseason, expecting perhaps a bump in the road to recovery as often happens with partial UCL tears, but nothing went wrong with the elbow … until now.

Billingsley managed well all through the spring but had a delayed start to the 2013 season due to a bruised index finger sustained while he was attempting a bunt. He eventually joined the rotation April 10 but it wouldn't last long. After two starts, Billingsley experienced some renewed elbow pain and now finds himself back on the DL. The bigger concern is that this may signal the beginning of the end of his season. If in fact the UCL tear has progressed to the point where Billingsley cannot function well enough to throw, he will be headed for Tommy John surgery. Given the recovery time from reconstructive elbow surgery, Billingsley stands a chance of losing time into next season if he does not address it quickly. No one wants to send an athlete to surgery when it isn't warranted and there will undoubtedly be careful evaluation of all sides of the equation, but the writing seems to be on the wall. Don't count on seeing Billingsley back in the lineup anytime soon, if at all.

Shaun Marcum, SP, New York Mets (placed on DL April 1, could return late this week): Marcum has been sidelined since the start of the month with what the team called "nerve inflammation" in his neck. After receiving injections early to help with pain and inflammation, Marcum has been on a slow and steady rehab course. There have been no reports of any setbacks thus far, an encouraging sign. According to ESPN New York's Kieran Darcy, Marcum will throw 70-75 pitches in a rehab outing Monday and, if all goes well, could return to face the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday. This is all positive news for Marcum and the Mets, but it is worth noting that these types of ailments lend themselves to recurrence.

Brett Anderson, SP, Oakland Athletics (DTD): Anderson has been contending with a sprained right ankle, which resulted in a shortened appearance Friday and a complete day of rest Saturday. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Anderson threw a bullpen Sunday, which went well, and he appears "likely" to make his Wednesday start. The biggest concern with an ankle sprain on the landing leg of a pitcher is that it not throw off his mechanics and risk injury to his throwing arm. The A's must like what they see if they're considering a prompt return.

HacheMan · Apr 22, 2013

Is Anthony Rendon worth a pickup?

Eric Karabell

For years, fantasy baseball owners old enough to have owned former Gold Glove third baseman Scott Rolen in his heyday have heard people compare Washington Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman to him. Rolen was a terrific player at the plate and in the field -- when healthy, of course -- and although I suspect he's not a particularly strong candidate for the Hall of Fame, it doesn't diminish what he accomplished. Zimmerman reminds me of Rolen in that he's a very good hitter and defender at the hot corner, but it's hard to count on the guy to stay healthy. The latest reminder came over the weekend, setting into motion a scenario in which the Nationals' top hitting prospect was promoted.

<OFFER></OFFER>
Before dealing with the exciting Anthony Rendon, let's talk more about Zimmerman. Early last week he was dealing with what the team called cramping in his left hamstring, and it seemed minor. He left Wednesday's game prematurely, missed a few more and then on Saturday underwent an MRI. Later Saturday, he was placed on the 15-day disabled list, and Rendon, a masher at the plate but also with his own serious durability concerns, got the call to the majors, and he made his debut on Sunday afternoon.

While this should be a three-week injury for a strained hammy and nothing more, thus sending Rendon back to the minors, I certainly didn't like what I was seeing from Zimmerman the first few weeks defensively, and it could have been affecting his offense. Zimmerman is hitting .226 in 15 games, but watching him throw the baseball awkwardly with his new sidearm motion, it sure looked like his troublesome right shoulder was either giving him trouble or he was struggling to deal with the aftereffects.

In two of the past five seasons Zimmerman missed significant playing time (106 games in 2008, 101 games in 2011), and last year shoulder problems affected his play in the first half (.243, below-average power) until a cortisone shot somewhat famously turned things around (.319, 17 home runs). Zimmerman had offseason shoulder surgery, necessitating the new throwing motion that has turned even routine plays into adventures. Zimmerman is signed for many more years, but already there has been much discussion about him moving across the diamond to first base, making room for the prospect chosen sixth in the 2011 draft. This weekend their careers crossed paths.

Let's not panic yet and drop Zimmerman in a standard league. He was, after all, a top-50 option in ESPN average live drafts, and perhaps this really is just a minor hamstring issue, and he'll return soon. Plus, the few weeks off should help his shoulder, if he was feeling pain. The Nationals have already said Rendon will play regularly while he's in the majors, but this is no position battle. When Zimmerman is healthy, Rendon will leave. Colleague Keith Law ranked the 23-year-old as the No. 17 overall prospect back in February, praising him from an offensive standpoint. So far at Double-A Harrisburg, Rendon was hitting .292 with two home runs in 14 games, but also 14 walks versus nine strikeouts and a .462 OBP, befitting his patient approach.

Rendon made his big league debut Sunday at Citi Field in New York and went hitless in four at-bats, striking out twice against Brandon Lyon and Bobby Parnell. He flied out twice against Mets starter Dillon Gee. Rendon also committed an error. It was an inauspicious debut for a top prospect, but things will get better. Rendon can rake. Immediately my Twitter feed filled up with Rendon talk; I wouldn't call him a must-add in 10- or 12-team leagues, because it should be a short-term look in the big leagues. I wouldn't cut corner infielders Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Ike Davis, Brandon Belt, Pedro Alvarez, Will Middlebrooks or Nationals teammate Adam LaRoche, either. All those players bring a baseline of previous success, and all are among the most dropped corner infielders in standard formats. However, none is in imminent danger of being sent back to Double-A in a few weeks. When it comes to lower-ceiling corner infielders like Jeff Keppinger, Greg Dobbs, Mitch Moreland, Trevor Plouffe, sure, take the chance on Rendon. There's little to lose, and in one-year formats you can cut him and find someone else.

What if Zimmerman is hurt worse than the Nationals have led on and Rendon sticks around awhile? Well, it's certainly possible. Not all hamstring injuries are created equal. It's also possible that Zimmerman returns soon but first baseman Adam LaRoche still isn't hitting, and he's the one who gets benched (though I doubt it). The point is, yes, it is possible that Rendon hits so much in the next few weeks that the Nationals need to deal with it and just cannot send him back down. But how he hits initially will also affect fantasy owners' decision-making. I think San Diego Padres second baseman/third baseman Jedd Gyorko will take walks and hit for enough power to matter this season, like Rendon, if the team was committed to him for 500 at-bats. But Gyorko is off to a slow start and is being mass-dropped already. I don't really agree with it.

Ultimately, if you own Rendon in a dynasty league, don't overrate the next few weeks, whether he hits or not, because his future is bright. If you own Zimmerman, it's premature to cut bait, though I have modest concerns about him anyway because of the shoulder.

Player	<CENTER>April OPS</CENTER>	<CENTER>Total OPS</CENTER>	<CENTER>Difference</CENTER>
Giancarlo Stanton	.701	.928	-.227
Aramis Ramirez	.635	.845	-.210
Victor Martinez	.665	.847	-.182
Chris Johnson	.598	.755	-.157
Raul Ibanez	.612	.754	-.142
Carlos Gonzalez	.786	.918	-.132
Ronny Cedeno	.542	.670	-.128
Albert Pujols	.799	.926	-.127
Rajai Davis	.553	.675	-.122
Alexei Ramirez	.589	.708	-.119
Gordon Beckham	.545	.664	-.119
Delmon Young	.630	.746	-.116
Mark Reynolds	.660	.775	-.115
Juan Pierre	.559	.672	-.113
J.J. Hardy	.614	.726	-.112

<CENTER>#</CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prv Rk</CENTER>	<CENTER>#</CENTER>	Player, Team	<CENTER>Pos Rk</CENTER>	<CENTER>Prv Rk</CENTER>
1	Ryan Braun, Mil	OF1	1	76	Carlos Gomez, Mil	OF35	61
2	Miguel Cabrera, Det	3B1	2	77	Todd Frazier, Cin	3B10	95
3	Mike Trout, LAA	OF2	3	78	Freddie Freeman, Atl	1B12	59
4	Andrew McCutchen, Pit	OF3	4	79	Angel Pagan, SF	OF36	77
5	Robinson Cano, NYY	2B1	6	80	Carlos Beltran, StL	OF37	73
6	Matt Kemp, LAD	OF4	5	81	Aramis Ramirez, Mil	3B11	54
7	Carlos Gonzalez, Col	OF5	7	82	Brett Gardner, NYY	OF38	78
8	Joey Votto, Cin	1B1	9	83	Alcides Escobar, KC	SS8	85
9	Justin Upton, Atl	OF6	11	84	Ben Revere, Phi	OF39	81
10	Prince Fielder, Det	1B2	10	85	Erick Aybar, LAA	SS9	75
11	Albert Pujols, LAA	1B3	8	86	Nelson Cruz, Tex	OF40	80
12	Jose Bautista, Tor	OF7	12	87	Victor Martinez, Det	C6	70
13	David Wright, NYM	3B2	15	88	Neil Walker, Pit	2B10	76
14	Troy Tulowitzki, Col	SS1	18	89	Howard Kendrick, LAA	2B11	93
15	Giancarlo Stanton, Mia	OF8	13	90	Andre Ethier, LAD	OF41	84
16	Buster Posey, SF	C1	16	91	Ryan Howard, Phi	1B13	89
17	Evan Longoria, TB	3B3	17	92	Miguel Montero, Ari	C7	101
18	Adam Jones, Bal	OF9	25	93	Adam LaRoche, Wsh	1B14	90
19	Ian Kinsler, Tex	2B2	22	94	Josh Reddick, Oak	OF42	94
20	Jason Heyward, Atl	OF10	14	95	Kevin Youkilis, NYY	3B12	118
21	Adrian Beltre, Tex	3B4	20	96	Torii Hunter, Det	OF43	99
22	Jose Reyes, Tor	SS2	26	97	David Ortiz, Bos	DH1	97
23	Dustin Pedroia, Bos	2B3	23	98	David Freese, StL	3B13	102
24	Edwin Encarnacion, Tor	1B4	19	99	Jed Lowrie, Oak	SS10	135
25	Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos	OF11	28	100	Mark Teixeira, NYY	1B15	117
26	Billy Butler, KC	1B5	29	101	Alejandro De Aza, CWS	OF44	88
27	Jay Bruce, Cin	OF12	27	102	Jason Kubel, Ari	OF45	109
28	Starlin Castro, ChC	SS3	24	103	Wilin Rosario, Col	C8	115
29	Brandon Phillips, Cin	2B4	33	104	Kendrys Morales, Sea	1B16	105
30	Bryce Harper, Wsh	OF13	31	105	Nick Swisher, Cle	OF46	96
31	B.J. Upton, Atl	OF14	30	106	Carl Crawford, LAD	OF47	121
32	Josh Hamilton, LAA	OF15	21	107	Mike Moustakas, KC	3B14	98
33	Matt Holliday, StL	OF16	32	108	Coco Crisp, Oak	OF48	114
34	Austin Jackson, Det	OF17	36	109	Paul Konerko, CWS	1B17	92
35	Michael Bourn, Cle	OF18	34	110	Derek Jeter, NYY	SS11	107
36	Desmond Jennings, TB	OF19	37	111	Will Middlebrooks, Bos	3B15	111
37	Paul Goldschmidt, Ari	1B6	42	112	Dan Uggla, Atl	2B12	122
38	Jimmy Rollins, Phi	SS4	44	113	Kyle Seager, Sea	3B16	106
39	Ben Zobrist, TB	OF20	38	114	Michael Cuddyer, Col	OF49	112
40	Adrian Gonzalez, LAD	1B7	35	115	Salvador Perez, KC	C9	104
41	Ian Desmond, Wsh	SS5	39	116	Pedro Alvarez, Pit	3B17	100
42	Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh	3B5	41	117	Nick Markakis, Bal	OF50	108
43	Yoenis Cespedes, Oak	OF21	43	118	Jayson Werth, Wsh	OF51	116
44	Elvis Andrus, Tex	SS6	47	119	Manny Machado, Bal	3B18	110
45	Alex Rios, CWS	OF22	48	120	Lance Berkman, Tex	1B18	120
46	Allen Craig, StL	1B8	45	121	Danny Espinosa, Wsh	2B13	103
47	Shin-Soo Choo, Cin	OF23	51	122	Norichika Aoki, Mil	OF52	125
48	Pablo Sandoval, SF	3B6	52	123	Daniel Murphy, NYM	2B14	127
49	Alex Gordon, KC	OF24	55	124	J.J. Hardy, Bal	SS12	124
50	Aaron Hill, Ari	2B5	56	125	Ichiro Suzuki, NYY	OF53	119
51	Yadier Molina, StL	C2	46	126	Justin Morneau, Min	1B19	126
52	Carlos Santana, Cle	C3	53	127	Marco Scutaro, SF	2B15	113
53	Jason Kipnis, Cle	2B6	40	128	Alexei Ramirez, CWS	SS13	138
54	Matt Wieters, Bal	C4	49	129	Jonathan Lucroy, Mil	C10	128
55	Martin Prado, Ari	OF25	66	130	Everth Cabrera, SD	SS14	129
56	Joe Mauer, Min	C5	50	131	Adam Dunn, CWS	1B20	146
57	Chase Headley, SD	3B7	62	132	Trevor Plouffe, Min	3B19	142
58	Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle	SS7	58	133	Mike Napoli, Bos	C11	133
59	Mark Trumbo, LAA	OF26	63	134	Brandon Moss, Oak	1B21	148
60	Brett Lawrie, Tor	3B8	57	135	Dayan Viciedo, CWS	OF54	130
61	Jose Altuve, Hou	2B7	60	136	Andrelton Simmons, Atl	SS15	131
62	Dexter Fowler, Col	OF27	91	137	Michael Young, Phi	1B22	140
63	Josh Willingham, Min	OF28	64	138	Jean Segura, Mil	SS16	NR
64	Eric Hosmer, KC	1B9	69	139	Starling Marte, Pit	OF55	147
65	Chris Davis, Bal	OF29	83	140	Michael Saunders, Sea	OF56	NR
66	Curtis Granderson, NYY	OF30	67	141	Matt Carpenter, StL	1B23	NR
67	Hanley Ramirez, LAD	3B9	72	142	Josh Rutledge, Col	SS17	NR
68	Ike Davis, NYM	1B10	65	143	Cameron Maybin, SD	OF57	123
69	Melky Cabrera, Tor	OF31	68	144	Chris Young, Oak	OF58	NR
70	Rickie Weeks, Mil	2B8	82	145	Garrett Jones, Pit	1B24	144
71	Michael Morse, Sea	OF32	86	146	Mark Reynolds, Cle	1B25	NR
72	Shane Victorino, Bos	OF33	71	147	Jesus Montero, Sea	C12	134
73	Anthony Rizzo, ChC	1B11	74	148	Emilio Bonifacio, Tor	OF59	132
74	Hunter Pence, SF	OF34	79	149	Chris Carter, Hou	1B26	150
75	Chase Utley, Phi	2B9	87	150	Franklin Gutierrez, Sea	OF60	NR

MLB Fantasy News 2013

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