Loz from Oz - Tennis picks

[Loz]

Santoro only had 14 UE's vs Ferrer(Ferrer had 41) and in 133 games played in this tournament he has only 66 unforced errors with 165 winners.....I think he has a big shot to upset but I played small on that and large on what I think is easy money:

Pinnacle:
Will D. Nalbandian Win 3-0?
NO -137


Good luck to all

I wouldnt like to dismiss Santoro's chances either. But I just have this unshakable feeling that Santoro will have a lot of trouble hitting the winners off Nalbandian like he did against his weaker opponents. I don't know if Nalby will get up in straight sets, I mean he has lost a set in most games so far because he tends to slacken off slightly during the match, but I think that the 5.5 is a reasonable ask. Best of luck and appreciate your thoughts mate

 

[Born2Run]

I see a little money making opportunity later in the Davenport vs Henin-Hardenne match at Pinnacle........Lindsay was playing very well before she re-injured her ankle in her last match and I am sure they will have her ankle wrapped better today...........so.......... I think she will have at least 2 good(winning) sets in her, if not and she injures herself again and can't finish, I get my money back anyway because if any player retires or is disqualified all set bets are refunded.:toast:

My Bets:

Will L. Davenport Win 2-0?
Yes +424

Will L. Davenport Win 2-1?
Yes +468


and the reason I bet the sets and not Davenport to win straight up is that if she retires after 2 sets are completed, Henin-Hardenne would be the official winner and it would be a losing bet

 

[Loz]

I see a little money making opportunity later in the Davenport vs Henin-Hardenne match at Pinnacle........Lindsay was playing very well before she re-injured her ankle in her last match and I am sure they will have her ankle wrapped better today...........so.......... I think she will have at least 2 good(winning) sets in her, if not and she injures herself again and can't finish, I get my money back anyway because if any player retires or is disqualified all set bets are refunded.:toast:

My Bets:

Will L. Davenport Win 2-0?
Yes +424

Will L. Davenport Win 2-1?
Yes +468


and the reason I bet the sets and not Davenport to win straight up is that if she retires after 2 sets are completed, Henin-Hardenne would be the official winner and it would be a losing bet

I think that if Lindasy is going to beat JuJu, she will have to do it in straight sets because even fully fit, she just doesnt have the stamina to go the full monty with her. Just look at most of her past 3 set matches where she loses it in the third - just comes down to fitness. I cant see Henin going out in straight sets so Its anyones guess how this will pan out. All the best with your punt and I hope Lindsay will win this one and go all the way for old time sake

 

[Loz]

Sharapova (-3.5) top bt Petrova @1.85 gamebookers

Petrova is a bit suspect against big name players at the business ends of slams. She doesnt handle pressure as well as others. The H2H between the girls is 3:1 to PEtrova with PEtrova winnign the last hit up comprehensively agains Sharapova. I think Sharapova will get up handsomely here.

 

[Loz]

Sharapova (-3.5) top bt Petrova @1.85 gamebookers

Petrova is a bit suspect against big name players at the business ends of slams. She doesnt handle pressure as well as others. The H2H between the girls is 3:1 to PEtrova with PEtrova winnign the last hit up comprehensively agains Sharapova. I think Sharapova will get up handsomely here.

Actually H2H is 3:1 to Sharapova.

 

[Born2Run]

Wow, how could a man be completely spent after just 1 set? I could have beaten Santoro in the 2nd and 3rd set

Oh well, whats great about betting is.........

NEXT BET

 

[Loz]

Wow, how could a man be completely spent after just 1 set? I could have beaten Santoro in the 2nd and 3rd set

Oh well, whats great about betting is.........

NEXT BET

Santoro's heart wasnt in it. I dont think anyone could predict he would treat like a Sunday afternoone hit and giggle.

 

[Loz]

Petrova (+3.5) bt Sharapova -5 units Lost
Nalbandian (-5.5) bt Santoro +3.75 Won

Updated YTD 30w: 29L (-13.75 units)

 

[Loz]

Henin (-3.5) to bt Davenport @1.85 gamebookers 5 units

Ok, got about an hour before this match tees off.

Was on the fence about this one earlier but seems that Lindsay's injuries are probably going to be too much for her. LAst 4 matches Henin has pretty much had her way with Lindsay apart form the last match which Henin won in a w/o.

Henin is a smart woman and has the ability to move hte ball around the court pretty easily. If she can do this successfully, the less mobile Davenport will struggle (that is, I hope she struggles). I like you Lindsay, but this one is for the money.

good luck

 

[sharky99]

Decided to take a shot with Hingis to win the first set at +165, we'll see.:missingte

 

[Loz]

Decided to take a shot with Hingis to win the first set at +165, we'll see.:missingte

Hi Sharky99, I hope you are right only because I like Hingis a lot more than Kim Clijsters. I havent had much luck with the girls lately, so hopefully you will. It would help if they held their serve a little more, but hey, what did I expect , this is the WTA. :lolBIG:

 

[Loz]

Federer (-7.5) to bt Davydenko @1.85 gamebookers 5 units

Federer dominates the H2H, surprise surprise.

Fed uncharacteristically lost the plot in the 3 and 4th sets agains Tommy Haas after looking to steam rol Haas after taking the first 2 sets 6:4 6:0. That cost us the handicap win and we got a push instead.

However, lets give credit where credit is due. Haas pushed Fed into a position where he made more UEs then he probalby made during the entire week. Effectively Haas was able to for a brief time fully dominate the Fed by messing with his mind - basically what Fed does to his opponents. Maybe this is becasue Haas had a psychological win over Fed in the lead-up event, I dont know.

Will Davy be capable to doing the same against Fed. I doubt it. In the H2H Davy has never really come all that close. Fed should be looking to re-assert his dominance over his opponents to send a signal that he is "invincible" again before the semis. Afterall, this is as a very important aspect of why he wins a lot of his matches.

Fed to outplay the Russian guy.


Grosjean to bt Kiefer @2.00 gamebookers 5 units

This match up is even stevens. There is a decent argument that Kiefer has has faced a lightly better calibre of opponents, but I question whehter JCF is a real power on hard court these days, and whether Srichaphan was fully fit. ITs not to say Kiefer is playing badly as obviously this is not the case, but to have his odds coninue to fall is a bit surprising.

One thing to note is that Kiefer is not always bets suited going in to matches as the definite favourite. Before the Australian Open he was often seen as being a bit of a choker - a lot of tennis punters could vouch for that as they saw their $ slip down the drain when Kiefer choked away a certain win in the final against Andreev.

LEaving that aside, Grosjean is no stranger to big matches. He has never progressed passed the semis at any slam event, neither has Kiefer.

I like the look of Grosjean this week and will stick with him.

Good luck whichever way you punt today.

 

[Loz]

I wont take a bet on Schnyder v MAuresmo, but if live betting is availble for Schnyder I will defintiely plonk some $ on to her if she is at least 3.00.

I know the H2H is way out in front for MAuresmo but history shows she is not reliable when it comes to the business end of the tourny.And certainly, Schnyder is a quality player with the weaponry to stuff up the French woman.

Schnyder's end of 2005 form seems to have stuck around and she is in blistering form. I rate her success more highly than Mauresmo whos straight sets demolition of Vaidisova didnt convince me that she is the favourite. AS I have said Vaidisova is overrated massively and it showed that day.

I wont count this if it gets up, but if i was a betting man which i am i would go Schnyder.

 

[Loz]

Have been having a crap run lately, but hope to get on to the winning trail today.

Sharapova to bt Henin @2.50 gamebookers 5 units

Henin's server was quite erratic against Davenport and she should have won that match a lot sooner than she did. I have the feeling Henin has not been as confident with her game as much as normal.

This is a big thing for Sharapova who has yet to emulate the lofty heights of winnign Wimbledon. She needs to win this game to show that she is not a one hit wonder, and I think that with HEnins shaky form this is an excellent chance.

Its not to say Sharapova is playing brillian tennis right now as she will crtainly have to lift her game againt Henin in all departments (the Petrova match was a joke), but if she does lift today she could certainly wipe out Henin in a surprise here.

Clijsters (-2.5) to bt Mauresmo @1.75 gamebookers 5 units

Clisters is just mentally tougher than MAuresmo. Boith players played matches yesterday with little rest so should be quite even.

Clisters even with "injury" is my pick. Mauresmo has continnually showed that she has a mental block in getting past the semis in most big tournys and I hope that this run continues.

I still believe that MAuresmo is getting too much credit here. The last match Schnyder played shit house, which flattered Mauresmo a little.

Clisters has the dominant H2H and this will continue in straights most likely.


Good luck!

 

[Born2Run]

I'm right with you in the crappy run Loz....I always seem to do very well in the early and middle rounds in the grand slams, but not at all in the late matches........ maybe its because I have more to choose form early and can be more selective........

Anyway, what was up with Kiefer throwing his racket towards Grosjean causing him to miss an easy shot and the judges not doing anything???? I think that changed the whole match after that....... its legal to do that????? He should of at least lost the point.....that made no sense to me.

Wow, you are a brave man taking Clijsters after all of those backhand errors she had yesterday........Hingis beat her in 6 straight games because of it.........I just can't pull the trigger on her, and Mauresmo made Schnyder look like she was an amateur......I actually love Mauresmo in this match, but since every move I have made lately has been or turned out wrong, who knows..........the good thing is that 1 of us has to win :toast:

Good luck to all

 

[Loz]

I'm right with you in the crappy run Loz....I always seem to do very well in the early and middle rounds in the grand slams, but not at all in the late matches........ maybe its because I have more to choose form early and can be more selective........

Anyway, what was up with Kiefer throwing his racket towards Grosjean causing him to miss an easy shot and the judges not doing anything???? I think that changed the whole match after that....... its legal to do that????? He should of at least lost the point.....that made no sense to me.

Wow, you are a brave man taking Clijsters after all of those backhand errors she had yesterday........Hingis beat her in 6 straight games because of it.........I just can't pull the trigger on her, and Mauresmo made Schnyder look like she was an amateur......I actually love Mauresmo in this match, but since every move I have made lately has been or turned out wrong, who knows..........the good thing is that 1 of us has to win :toast:

Good luck to all

I didnt see tha Kiefer racquet throwing incidcent but i think a lot of people said it was pretty unfair to Grosjean. It was very tense match, so i dont blame Grosjean for getting a bit annoyed with that.

Glad that Clijsters pulled out when she got injured to save the bet instead of playing on. I am right with you on Mauresmo, and I think she will have an excellent chance to get by Henin who doesnt look as confident as she normally is. Go M!!

 

[Loz]

Davenport bt Henin (-3.5) -5 units
Davydenko bt (Federe (-7.5) - 5 units
Kiefer bt Grosjean -5 units
Henin bt Sharapova -5 units
Mauresmo bt Clisjsters (Ret) Void

Updated YTD 30w: 33L (-33.75 units)

 

[Scooter1]

Loz - Just starting to look into tennis betting.

I appreciate your writeups and the precis of your reasoning, regardless of your current win/loss.

Good luck on future picks.

 

[Loz]

Loz - Just starting to look into tennis betting.

I appreciate your writeups and the precis of your reasoning, regardless of your current win/loss.

Good luck on future picks.

Thanks SCooter. Appreciate you taking the time to tell me what you think.

Sometimes I "write out aloud" because it just helps me think things over in my head when trying to decide a match. Hopefully we can make this a profitable year.

 

[Born2Run]

That was total BS what Henin-Hardenne did.......she said in an interview yesterday that she hasn't been this healthy for 3 years. Now she has a stomach ache and retires and in the post match press conference she said she has been sick for the last few days(she beat Sharapova in a tough match 2 days ago) and her shoulder was bothering her so she took a double dose of anti-inflammitory medicine...................well, guess who is added to my "dislike" list.....I will root against her for the rest of her life, that wasn't fair to Mauresmo either, her winning her 1st slam after all of those years like this.

TOTAL TOTAL BS....yes I am a little mad because I had a HUGE bet on Mauresmo at +217 but it just wasn't right