Loz from Oz - Tennis picks

[Loz]

Schnyder to bt Myskina @1.72 Pinnacle 5 units

H2H is 3:2 in favour of Myskina. However, in the last 3 games it was 2:0 to Schnyder taking into account Myskina got a walkover.

In recent times, Schnyder has had the better run of form, has performed more consistently against quality players, and has shown greater mental composure on court. Myskina has been patchy evere since the Frnech Open win. She almost lost to Jamea JAckson in the 2nd round which is pretty indicative of where she is at at the moment.

Schnyder at anything above 1.70 is worth a punt in my opinion.

 

[Loz]

Ljubicic (-4.5) to bt Johansson @1.85 gamebookers 5 units


Last 2 matches Ljubicic has beaten Johansson convincingly and hasnt even lost a set.

I remember watching their last match at the Paris Masters and Johansson didnt look like coming anywhere near to the big serving Croat, but then Ljubjo has been playing like a man possessed.

Spring forward 3 months, Ljubcic doesnt see mto have lost any of that form and intensity which took him into the top ten. In fact he has probably got better ,especially afte his DAvis Cup heorics which only served to raise his confidence further.

I can't see Johansson taking more than 1 set, and if he does, he will have to be in top form. Ljubjo will get the handicap somehow or other.

I think this bet and the Schnyder bet are my best bets.

 

[Loz]

I will update YTD later today...and good luck

 

[Loz]

My apologies. Please Ignorethe Nalbandian bet above. I think it started already before I posted - just thought it was following the Roddick match. Sorry!!! Of course wont count that in the YTD.

 

[Loz]

Santoro to bt Ferrer @2.90 gamebookers 5 units


This is an even contest in my opinion. You can bet your arse that Ferrer's stock value rose about 30% after the straight sets demolition of Ancic, but, you know, I cant believe Ancic lost like this agaisnt Ferrer on a talent match up alone. More like Ancic had a brain explosion as he does in matches that he is expected to win. What does this mean, it means that the big money has gone behind Ferrer.

No disrespect to Ferrer, but he is no certainty for me at 1.35 or odds of around that. Santoro is not a crash and bash player like Ferrer, and has more flexible playing style that will surprse Ferrer more so than Ancic could relying too heavily on his big serve. I think that Santoro's greater expereience in these conditions will surprise here. They dont call him the Magician for nothing.

 

[Loz]

Sharapova (1.25) x Ljubicic (1.53) --> @1.91 Pinnacle 5 units

Not much to say here. Sharapova ist technically better than Hantuchova, holds her nerve, and has bigger balls. This will be pretty one-sided but great to watch these 2 hot chicks anyway.

Ljubicic, will get past johansson in 3 or 4 sets at most.

 

[Loz]

Santoro is starting to give me the shits. He is up a set and 2 breaks against Ferrer, and now looks like he is gonna lose both goddam breaks. and that usually means we starting heading south...

 

[Loz]

What a fucking waste.

 

[Loz]

<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Nalbandian bt Nieminen -5
Ferrer bt Ancic (-4) -5
Hantuchova bt Williams (-3.5) -5
Hrbaty bt Andreev -5
Chela bt Vliegen -5

Roddick (-8) bt Benneteau +4
Robredo (+5.5) bt Blake +4
Baghdatis (-5.5) bt Gremelmayr +4
Sahrapova (-6) bt Kostanic +4
Ljubicic (-4.5) bt Johansson +4.25
Santoro bt Ferrer +9.5
Ljubicic x Sharapova (parlay) +4.5


Updated YTD 27w: 28L (-19.5 units)

Schynder match still to come...

 

[Loz]

Grosjean (-3.5) to bt Mathieu @1.80 gamebookers 5 units

This is a match I am very tempted bet 10 units on as I think it is an absolute gift from the bookies.

The reason being, I feel that Mathieu has far exceeded his expectations coming in to the OZ Open whilst Grosjean is expected to make it to the semis at least. Grosjean is the better player, has the better big-game expereience, and whilst Mathiue occaissionally shows moments of absolute brilliance, this happens far too often for me to lose any sleep over taking this bet.

 

[Loz]

Federer (-7) to bt Haas @1.80 gamebookers

I heard someone say that Haas made a big mistake by beating Federer in the lead-up event at Kooyong because now Federer is going to enjoy exacting his revenge tomorrow when they meet again.

I dont know whether this is true, but one thing is for sure, you dont get to beat Federer twice in a row very often at all. Federer said at the end of his last match that revenge will factor in to this match, and so presumably, he will press hard against the German.

Haas on the other hand looked pretty vulnerable when he played Luczak in the last round. Federer has the H2H against Haas which is not surprising. I think that Federe will get the 7 games easy. Watch it and enjoy the master at work.

 

[Loz]

Davydenko (-3.5) to bt Hrbaty @1.80 gamebookers 5 units

I bet against Hrbaty previously on the basis that he had been through consecutive 5 set matches which I believed would have drained him severely of energy. However, I was wrong, and he shocked me by coming back from 2 sets down against Andreev to win his next match.

Hrbaty will be an absolute legend if he can overcome Davydenko in this encounter. I dont know of any player in the history of hte open who would have won so many 5-setters if he can pull this off.

In any case, Davy already has a H2H advantage over Hrbaty on Hard court, and has had a relatively easy schedule in comparison and I think that he will be just far too much for Hrbaty to handle tomorrow.

All of 2005 Davydenko was the consumnate professional and made giant strides towards getting to the deepe end of slam tournys. He will not mess things up like his countryman Andreev did. Perhaps there may also be a bit of revenge on his mind too? 3.5 games wont be nearly enough of a handicap to save Hrbaty in the likely event that Hrbaty goes down

Good luck

 

[red007]

Sharapova (1.25) x Ljubicic (1.53) --> @1.91 Pinnacle 5 units

Not much to say here. Sharapova ist technically better than Hantuchova, holds her nerve, and has bigger balls. This will be pretty one-sided but great to watch these 2 hot chicks anyway.

Ljubicic, will get past johansson in 3 or 4 sets at most.

you can't bet tennis parlays at pinnacle can you?

 

[Loz]

you can't bet tennis parlays at pinnacle can you?

Red007,

Thanks for pointing that out, and I am sorry if I misled you. I dont actually have a Pinnacle account just a gamebookers account and assumed that they would have parlays/multis there. I saw the odds were better at Pinnacle so naturally suggested that one automatically.

I am not going to count the parlay win I suggested with Pinnacle odds as this would not be accurate or fair to anyone who read that suggestion and will readjust the YTD shortly. Thanks again.

L

 

[Loz]

Correction (see above): Ljubicic x Sharapova (parlay) Void

Updated YTD 2w: 28L (-24.0 units)

 

[red007]

Red007,

Thanks for pointing that out, and I am sorry if I misled you. I dont actually have a Pinnacle account just a gamebookers account and assumed that they would have parlays/multis there. I saw the odds were better at Pinnacle so naturally suggested that one automatically.

I am not going to count the parlay win I suggested with Pinnacle odds as this would not be accurate or fair to anyone who read that suggestion and will readjust the YTD shortly. Thanks again.

L

no problem. i thought maybe pinnacle had started allowing tennis parlays.
its a shame that they are afraid to allow tennis parlays while many books allow it.

 

[Loz]

no problem. i thought maybe pinnacle had started allowing tennis parlays.
its a shame that they are afraid to allow tennis parlays while many books allow it.

Updated YTD 26w: 28L (-24.0 units)

Its surprising though how Pinnacle doesnt allow multis but i guess their odds are usually very generous anyway.

I only quote Gamebookers because its where i go to place bets at first instance for various reasons. But if you have a pinnacle acocunt more often then not just take the bet there as the odds are likely to be a little higher.

Good luck today

 

[Loz]

Schnyder bt Myskina +3.5
Grosjean (-3.5) bt Mathieu +4
Davydenko (-3.5) bt Hrbaty +4
Federer (-7) vs Haas Push

Updated YTD 29w: 28L (-12.5 units)

 

[Loz]

Nalbandian (-5.5) to bt Santoro @1.85 gamebookers 5 units

The stats show that H2H is 2:1 to Santoro, 2 matches were split on clay and Santoro won a match on Carpet back in 2002. Its fair to say that, these stats may not be that indicative of how they will match up tomorrow on hard court.

Whilst Santoro brought home the $ for us against Ferrer in the previous round there were a lot of UEs from both players and Santoro cant afford to bring that kind of game against Nalbandian or Nalbandian will end him in a hurry. I think that Santoro has had a much easier run to date than Nalbandian and the Frenchman time should be up.

Nalbandian should get this in what I expect to be a stroll in the park.

 

[Born2Run]

Santoro only had 14 UE's vs Ferrer(Ferrer had 41) and in 133 games played in this tournament he has only 66 unforced errors with 165 winners.....I think he has a big shot to upset but I played small on that and large on what I think is easy money:

Pinnacle:
Will D. Nalbandian Win 3-0?
NO -137


Good luck to all