Loz from Oz - Tennis picks

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Loz

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Born2Run said:
That was total BS what Henin-Hardenne did.......she said in an interview yesterday that she hasn't been this healthy for 3 years. Now she has a stomach ache and retires and in the post match press conference she said she has been sick for the last few days(she beat Sharapova in a tough match 2 days ago) and her shoulder was bothering her so she took a double dose of anti-inflammitory medicine...................well, guess who is added to my "dislike" list.....I will root against her for the rest of her life, that wasn't fair to Mauresmo either, her winning her 1st slam after all of those years like this.

TOTAL TOTAL BS....yes I am a little mad because I had a HUGE bet on Mauresmo at +217 but it just wasn't right

Completely feel your pain mate. There will be more matches to win - trust me.

Although Henin is infoamous for using the injury time out to screw up her opponents, I have to say, she really did look pretty devestated having to pull out like that. Injuries do happen.

I remember a few times players in the past screwed me up BIG time and I promised never to back them again. That was a big mistake. I learnt one thing is for sure - you have to leave emotion and sentimement at the door - you have to often bet against your fave players and sometimes bet on players you hate who have cost you in the past - if it is a sensible bet, and they can make you money in doing so. :103631605
 

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Born2Run - It is unfortunate that Hardenne bowed out. I assume your bet was pushed because it didn't go two full sets, or didn't go a full match.
Seems to depend on the individual book as far as the rule from what I've seen.

If you're not too annoyed to think about it - was wondering what aspects of the matchup put you onto a big bet on Mauresmo.

You obviously were on the right side.
 

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Well, my selection was based on several reasons:

1)Mauresmo wasn't missing many of her shots (unforced errors), even against a power hitter like Clijsters in the semifinal she played very well and had just broken her to go up a break in the last set before Kim twisted her ankle and retired (I also LOVED Mauresmo in that match and it went into the 3rd set so I still cashed:toast: )

2) She made 2 seeded opponents (Schnyder(7) and Vaidisova(16)) look like amateurs in the 4th round and quarterfinal matches

3)Hardenne IMO should not have beaten Sharapova in the semifinal, 2 bad line calls went her way in the 3rd set and both of those calls were for game point....instead of Sharapova being up 4-2, Hardenne was up 4-2..... and Mauresmo is 2-0 head to head lifetime against Sharapova

Its nice to find an underdog with everything going their way......... I didn't have a doubt in my mind that Mauresmo would win.........and guess what, she also made Hardenne look like an amateur.........I don't buy the stomach ache thing and neither did any of the commentators.

Look at what she did in the last 4 matches of this tournament:

4th round vs Vaidisova(16): 6-1, 6-1
Quarters vs Schnyder(7) : 6-3, 6-0
Semi vs CLijsters(2) : 5-7, 6-2, 3-2 Clijsters retired
Finals vs Hardenne(8) : 6-1, 2-0 Hardenne retired


It won't be long and she will be #1 again....and I am going to continue to support her....all the way to the bank:money8:
 

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Keep up the good work.It's great to have a good tennis specialist posting.Thanks again!
 

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Born2Run - I have some questions re: your analysis above. Not arguing with you - as I mentioned earlier in the thread, I am new to this.

But for the sake of my understanding your analysis further, I'd like to ask some questions which I hope you or one of the other experts wouldn't mind responding to:

Suppose I was analyzing the HH/Mauresmo matchup prior to the event which just took place:

I see that HH is 2-0 lifetime vs. Vaidisova, and specifically

2004-08-30 US Open Hardcourt R128 Justine Henin-Hardenne (BEL) 6-1 6-4
2005-08-15 Toronto Hardcourt QF Justine Henin-Hardenne (BEL) 7-5 7-6(4)
Justine Henin-Hardenne (BEL) leads 2:0

Clearly HH in the 1st meeting in 04 won 12-5 overall.
In the 2nd meeting in 05 it was a much closer 14-11 .

Since these games were before I was paying attention -

is is safe to assume that HH would probably struggle now with Vaidisova, which makes Mauresmo's Aussie Open 06 win over Vaidisova that much more impressive,

or -

is it unrealistic for me to assume that, because it might have simply been
uncharacteristic, and I'm basing my assumption on a tiny sample size?



Next:


Mauresmo " Quarters vs Schnyder(7) : 6-3, 6-0" in 06 Aussie open.

Now, to look at how HH has done vs Schnyder:

When I look at a much larger sample size of data of HH vs Schnyder lifetime, I see that :
Looking at the lifetime record of their mups, and their 05 meetings.
2005-04-25 Warsaw Clay QF Justine Henin-Hardenne (BEL) 6-1 6-2
2005-05-02 Berlin Clay SF Justine Henin-Hardenne (BEL) 6-0 6-1
Justine Henin-Hardenne (BEL) leads 6:0
Hard: Justine Henin-Hardenne (BEL) leads 2:0
Clay: Justine Henin-Hardenne (BEL) leads 4:0
Grass: Tied 0:0
Indoor: Justine Henin-Hardenne (BEL) leads 1:0


I see that HH dispatched Schnyder easily in those meetings.

However, those matches were both on clay (in 05).

Does that mean that I can't realistically judge how HH would have done against Schnyder on Hard courts in 05/06, or can I judge that it's essentially even in my evaluation of the HH/Mauresmo match with regards to Schnyder - ie, that both of those players have handled Schnyder with ease?


Finally - looking at HH vs Clijsters in 04, 05 , and lifetime, I see: <table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"><td class="smalltext" nowrap="nowrap">
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</td></tr></tbody> </table>
 

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Aussie Open 06 - Mauresmo vs. Clijsters

"Semi vs CLijsters(2) : 5-7, 6-2, 3-2 Clijsters retired"


Finally, looking at HH vs Clijsters lifetime, I see that it is Clijsters 10-7, and on hardcourts it is Clijsters 8 - 3.
So Clijsters lifetime has dominated HH on Hard courts.

It's tough for me to evaluate the Mauresmo/Clijsters 06 match though, since it didn't complete, and Mauresmo overall 14-11 games in the match.

Again, none of the above is arguing with your analysis. I'm sure I'm missing a lot.

Just wanted to throw out what I see in my limited vision at this point.

If you or any other tennis capper would rather discuss it off the board, I could post my MSN Messenger address, or my email address.

Looking forward to learning all that I am missing in looking at these past histories.
 

Loz

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For those who dont bet on the tennis much, there are many useful stats sites to use. I would strongly recommend the following site:

http://tennis.matchstats.com

It compmlements the ATPtour.com site in that it gives you a summary of H2H and breakdown of each player's w/l rations on different surfaces. It also gives player performances on the Challenger cct.
 

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Loz - Your link brings one to "catchynames.co". Thanks for the site recommendation though.

Were you on Mauresmo in the finals as well?

Can you tell me some other things I should've looked at re: the stats I reproduced?

Any other stat sites and/or tennis forums you or any of the others here recommend?
 

Loz

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Sorry Scoot,

Try this link instead http://tennis.matchstat.com

Firstly, good on you for researching your tennis stats before you bet. That is sensible and I recommend that you always do your homework as much as is practicable. One thing though, tennis just like any other sport, there is no one right way to analyse who will win or lose. Its pretty much a personal thing. Having said that, there are some fundamental considerations which I imagine most punters would use.

There are too many factors to go through but the following considerations are only examples of points to consider, not an exhaustive list:
- H2H
- Each players w/l record on a particular surface
- recent form vs long term form

You also have to give weigh up other factors such as to w/l ratio based o nquality of opponents faced. Eg. a guy who may win 50 matches and lose 10 matches may not be any good if he only played low ranked challenger players. And vice versa. Just common sense stuff.

It also important that you dont get caught up in the stats - its only a starting point never the be all and end all. A large part of successful punting in tennis is to do with watching the players play or at least generally keeping track of their personal characteristics their nuances, what makes certain players tick when other dont, ie. does player X usually choke against player Y on clay etc etc, does player Z play well on certain continents etc. This just comes with time, and its always a learning process.

Also, if you find yourself getting too technical and analysing 100 different stats or points - in my opinion, it can be counter-prodeuctive. Keep it simple - look at the "key stats" and use a common sense approach to figure out which player is most likely to get the up on the day.

I personally do a lot of handicap betting on tennis because the range of possible value bets are much wider. I know that not all bookies have this available, but you really should sign up with one if you dont already.
 

Loz

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Scooter1 said:
Loz - Your link brings one to "catchynames.co". Thanks for the site recommendation though.

Were you on Mauresmo in the finals as well?

Can you tell me some other things I should've looked at re: the stats I reproduced?

Any other stat sites and/or tennis forums you or any of the others here recommend?

Btw I was supporting Mauresmo, but I was too chicken to place a bet on her particularly with my poor form. I am very happy for her win and hope that Henin's retirement doesnt detract from her tournament victory as I see it as the culmination of 7 hard years of work, not just 2 weeks.

I frequenlty stated that I didnt believe that MAuresmo would win match after match but too my surprise was wrong. My reasons were largely based on her past history of choking and falling away at the deep end of tournys. But now, I have to take a mental note in future that Mauresmo's mindset may no longer be the same and it would be foolish of me to think this way automatically even though it might have been relevant in the past.

There are some other stats sites that you can use:

www.itftennis.com
www.atptour.com
www.wtatour.com


The stats are fairly self explanatory.
 

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Scooter1, I think you might be trying to analyze prior form and weighing that too heavily........if you are going to use the past H2H record, its important to also go back in the stats and see how their recent form was for each match: Was it right before a grand slam? Many players do not play all out right before slams to avoid injury and get beat in early rounds to inferior players.... Were they playing regularly? If it was a match after a couple of months off it may not be an accurate result. A spotty pattern(play a tournament, then not for 6 weeks, another, then none for 1 month, etc) is usually from something that is bothering them (illness, injury, etc), so those matches shouldn't be weighed too heavily....... and surface record is important but it is also important to know a little about the surface that they are playing on in the current match. For example the Australian Open is an outdoor hardcourt, BUT is it really? It has a rubbery surface which makes it slower than other hardcourts and players that play flat and do not use a lot of spin do not do as well there as on other faster hardcourts..... so...... its a hardcourt that is kind of between clay and hardcourt. Also if the match is in the Rod Laver Arena or the Vodafone Arena and there is rain or a threat of rain they close the roof and it becomes an indoor match. For all of these reasons it is important to pay very close attention to what is going on from day to day.

The following are what I use to base my selections on and in the order of importance:

1) RECENT FORM: how did the player get to THIS match? was it by playing well or their opponents playing poorly? How is their serve? Better, same or worse than usual?Are they making a lot of unforced errors? Double faults? Btw, I don't weigh close matches in early rounds against much inferior players too heavily. It is usually just a sign that the much better player is just playing hard enough to beat that opponent.

2) How did they play on THIS surface in the past? In THIS tournament in the past? This is more important in early rounds, because obviously if the player has advanced to the 4th round or farther, they are playing well on the surface.

3) H2H record. I look at the head to head record really just to vindicate what I think of the current form and to see if it has happened in the past. If the opponent has not beaten the other ever or for the last several matches, I will go back and see if I can find out why and/or re-think my opinion of todays match. Even though 1 player has been much better in the past, circumstances might be different for this match and there is great value when that occurs.


Lets all work together and throw our opinions of what matters out on to the table here and make some :money8: :toast:
 

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Loz - Thanks for the info.

Do you - or anyone else - have an opinion on the men's final?
 

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Born2Run - Somehow I missed your response when I posted last.

Thank you.

As mentioned, I'm new to this (i.e., don't know what's important and what's not, or, put another way, don't know what I'm doing) so your response is very helpful.



"Also if the match is in the Rod Laver Arena or the Vodafone Arena and there is rain or a threat of rain they close the roof and it becomes an indoor match."


What's the difference between indoor and outdoor on the same type court, or in Rod Laver with the roof open or closed?

Temperature?
Light?

It appeared to be so hot during the match, can't imagine there was any wind with the roof open, so I don't imagine that is a factor.

Also, without taping the matches or making notes, it's impossible to know if a prior match at Laver was a roof open or roof closed match.

Perhaps you take notes on this.
 

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Baghdatis +550 was a lot lower that I thought. I have been riding him since the Roddick match I will make a small bet on him tonight, but doubtful about the results. My only hope is that it goes five sets in which case Baghdatis is 6-0 and I also got 10-1 that Baghdatis wins 3-2
 

Loz

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I simply cant go against Federer in this one but I can't make a call with any confidence how Baghdatis will respond - will he go down fighting in a close one? will he take a set at least? will he get smashed and capitulate under the pressure of a major final? Too hard basket for me Im not afraid to say. Now, a lot of people expected Baghdatis to get into the spotlight sooner rather than later, but I for one didnt expect him to get this far THIS quickly. He is still somewaht of an unknown quantity and that is the danger in taking handicap bets, set bets and so on in my mind. And add to that Federer's recent form has shown that he is human and has lost about 5 sets combined over the past 3 matches which is a big "form slump" by his standards.

It will be a good game to watch it if you can, and mental note things about Baghdatis that you see for future reference. For instance, if he is down 4:0 in the first set, how does he react, does he keep firghtint anyway to keep his morale up - or, does he just give hte set away and save his energy for the next set? This kind of stuff can be useful in handicap betting later. You can learn a lot from observing a player's lbehaviour whether they win or lose. I am assuming Bag will lose of course :)

Good luck everyone, and I am very much lookjing forward to checking out the ATP tournaments starting tomorrow. Should be plenty of action on offer.
 

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At first I thought a play on Bag would be the way to go, until I thought a bit further - Bag easily dispatched opponents who Fed easily dispatches.

So how to interpret a match between a terrific new player to these levels, and one of the best players ever?

Bag was impressive coming back from 2 down in his last match.

Will R. Federer win 3-0 sets. No.
???
 

Loz

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Scooter, at the end of the day you have to make a call. Baghdatis is a fantastic talen no doubt, he has won over solid competiton and in doing so has shown trememndous mental toughness by digging himself of seemingly hopeless positions at times. But, Fed has been consistently bringing home the bacon tournament after tournament after tournament at the highest levels.

Hmmm, if I had a gun held to my head, I would see what odds were available for Bag man to take at least 1 set. But I would want at least 2.50 for this. Again, take it easy on this match scoot if you arent sure. there are plenty of other things to look at in coming days.
 

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"Hmmm, if I had a gun held to my head, I would see what odds were available for Bag man to take at least 1 set. But I would want at least 2.50 for this."


What is wanting 2.50 in American odds? Does this mean +150?

Right now it's -125 at Pinn (Fed not to win 3-0).
 

Loz

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Scooter1 said:
"Hmmm, if I had a gun held to my head, I would see what odds were available for Bag man to take at least 1 set. But I would want at least 2.50 for this."


What is wanting 2.50 in American odds? Does this mean +150?

Right now it's -125 at Pinn (Fed not to win 3-0).

Bag, that is in decimal odds. 2.50 means that for every 1.00 you bet and win you get 2.50 back (profit of 1.50).
 

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