Loz from Oz - Tennis picks

[Loz]

Nakamura (+4) games to bt Dulko 1.80 @ gamebookers 5 units

The more I think about thismatch, the question mark over Dulko keeps growing in my mind. I still think that Nakamura has a good chance of winning outright, but, I will happily take the 4 hc games on offer here too. I am expecting that even if Dulko gets off to a flyer, she has a habit of taking her mind off the job and could easily be down 6:0 straight after. Time will tell.

 

[Loz]

Chakvetadze (+5.5) to bt Vaidisova @1.95 gamebookers 5 units

Chavetadze is a better player than these odds give her credit for. Maybe she hasn't been all that impressive since arriving in Australia, but neither has Vaidisova lived up to the hype that surrounds her. There is no question that Chakvetadze has a real chance of beating Vaidisova, but she will certainly have to lift her game a notch but I thin kshe will do it as she tends to be a slow starter in slams.

Vaidisova's ranking (for what its worth) is bolstered by those 3 tournamens wins in a row in Asia last year which whilst impressive should be put in perspective. The calibre of players at those tournys did not include any top 10 players.

Vaidisova was expected to blow Schiavone out of the water in Sydneym, but she herself was destroyed in straight sets. I think the hype surrounding here is too much and 5.5 games in a WTA match is too enticing.

 

[Loz]

Phau (+4.5) to bt Horna @1.85 gamebookers 5 units

I think this is a real danger match for Horna. Horna upset Monfils in stragiths sets. I don't know what happened there, but, Phau has a fairly impressive, yet larglye unnoticed, hard court record. And yes, there are enough decent names in there who he has beaten from time to time to make me think that he could push Horna in this one.

Horna himself is no slouch on hard courts, but I think that the 4.5 hc against him and playing a guy like Phau is just a bit too much. Phau will catch Horna napping after the big win on Monfils I suspect.

 

[Loz]

Late one...

Laine (+6) to bt Hingis @1.90 gamebookers 5 units

Not to take anything away from Hingis, but Zvonareva through that match away with the most immature performance I have seen in a long time. The Russian girl was overcome by the Hingis persona.

Laine is a little known Finnish girl who has fairly solid hard court performances. At the end of the day Hingis is still not at her peak and to win by 6 games is quite a lot to ask -thats a whole goddam set. I have confidence that LAine will be able to keep hte score respectable here.

good luck.

 

[Loz]

Today's record

Mirnyi bt Sanguinetti -5
Hingis (-6) bt Laine -5
Krajicek bt Mirza -5
Vaidosva (-5,5) bt Chackvetadze -5
Horna (-4) bt Phau -5
Nakamura (+4) bt Dulko +4
Nakamura bt Dulko +6.75

Updated YTD 20w: 25L (-28.75 units)

This is unacceptable. Its long season, and apologies for the slump.

 

[Loz]

Nieminen to bt Nalbandian @2.60 gamebookers

So far Nalbandian has done what needs to be done to win his matches in workmanlike fashion. He has been far from convincing against Udomchoke and Wawrinka, two players who he shoulod have put away quite easily. The virus he picked up a week ago seems to stil lbe affecting his game.

He can't afford to just turn up and expect to win agains Nieminen. I admit to being biased as a big fan of Nieminen, but putting this aside, their H2H is very close. In fact on 5 meetings on Hard court Niemine leads 3:2.

Nieminen is in very good form, and is still riding a wave of momentum from this first tourny win in Adelaide. He is a real threat to Nalbandian today and I believe will cause the upset.

 

[Loz]

Correction: Updated YTD 20w: 23L (-28.75 units)

 

[Loz]

Roddick (-8) to bt Benneteau @1.80 gamebookers 5 units

I haven't seen Roddick this focused since the US Open 2003 when he was a complete killing machine. Maybe he isn't quite at the peak of his abilities, but one thing is for sure, he hasn't forgotten about the humiliation of losing first round at the US open last year. So when he goes out to play, expect him to not just win it, but crush his opponent. So far, he has won his matches by more than 8 games. His last opponent Moodie is no walkover on hard court.

Last time these guys met (albeit in 2004) Roddick smashed Benneteau 6:2 6:4. I think the signs are there that Roddick will put Bennetau out of his misery sooner rather than later.

 

[Loz]

Robredo (+5.5) to bt Blake @1.80 gamebookers 5 units

Blake keeps on winning but he also keeps losing at least a set each match. The H2H is 2:0 on Hard court to Blake, but those matches were played a couple of years ago. Robredo has improved on this surface since then and is certainly capable of keeping it tight against Blakes opponents so far have not been up to the level of Robredo who I think can keep it tight.

 

[Loz]

Baghdatis (-6.5) to bt Gremelmayr @1.80 gamebookers 5 units

Ginepri imploded against Gremelmayr in 5 sets when he had it won. There is a considerable class difference here between these guys and I doubt that Baghdatis will make the same mistake. Gemelmayr has passed his use by date.

 

[Loz]

Ancic (-4.5) to bt Ferrer @1.80 gamebookers 5 units

Ancic should be able to do the job on Ferrer today. Ancic has been the more impressive of 2 players so far and has won all his matches with ease. Ferrer struggled with the big-serving but 1-dimensional Bracciali last round in rugged 4-setter. H2H is Ancic in a one sided match on hard court. This is a match that, Ancic should be the favourite, and should win.

 

[Loz]

Sharapova (-6) to bt Kostanic @1.80 gamebookers

Normally I would think quite hard about backing a player with a -6 game hc but in this matchup I think it is justified. Massive class difference here.

 

[Loz]

Williams (-3.5) to bt Hantuchova @1.75 gamebookers 5 units

The equation is this, can a half fit Serena Williams beat a fully fit Hantuchova by at least 3.5 games. My answer is yes, 7/10 times. ITs all arbitrary I know, and I might bet talking out of my arse, but having watched Hantuchova in person try and hold her serve in the Sydney tournament, I felt embarrased for her. Hantuchova had the chance of being a top 5 contender on a consistent basis but she just isnt that quality of player. Williams, despite her big arse at the moment, is a massively better player and talen then Hantuchova. We've seen the proof in the pudding, she can still win convincly despiter her obvious physical challenges. Hantchova will get ripped apart like shark bait from the get go. An if I am wrong then I deserve to lose my hard earned $ on this but I doubt that will happen.

 

[Loz]

Andreev to bt Hrbaty @1.85 gamebookers 5 units

Andreev has shown that he is not just a clay/carpet specialist, but can match it with the best on the hard courts down here in Oz land.

On form alone, he can certaily get past Hrbaty, who doesnt seem to be firing on all cylinders a the moment. Hrbaty has done htings the hard way with 2 drawn out 5-set matches against Marach and Dick Norman. Needless to say, that will sevgerely advantage Andreev. Whilst Andreeve is also coming off a 5 setter agtainst Sluiter, this is more understandable as Sluiter is a player os substantially higher quality.

History again shows that Hrbaty has ap oor record of progressing deep in to slam events and I think that Igor will see to it that Hrbaty's run ends here.

 

[Loz]

Vliegen to bt Chela @2.55 gamebookers 5 units

Vliegen will upset Chela who looked very badly injured at the end of hte Hewitt match. Vliegen has the ability to spring this upset.

 

[JohnMolson]

Vliegen looked like shit..couldn't even manage a set

 

[Loz]

Vliegen looked like shit..couldn't even manage a set

Yeah. Shit is the operative word.

 

[JohnMolson]

Loz

see any way that Frauddick could lose to Baghdatis??.thinking of parlaying him with Petrova:smoking:

 

[Loz]

I think that Petrova should be a pretty safe bet in the parlay.

I also think that Roddic should get by Baghdatis, but, dont underestimate the quality of this guy - Baghdatis really does seem to be the real deal, and I think he will put up a fight against A-Rod.

So, take the parlay, but dont put crazy money down on it. just dont expect it to be smooth sailing. Afterall, we are getting into the business end of hte turn and weird shit often happens.

 

[Loz]

Nalbandian (-4.5) to bt Robredo @1.85 gamebookers

Robredo played out of his skin against Blake. He will have to maintain that intensity, if not, play better than that performance to get by Nalbandian. Nalby has been playing in second gear so far, but i imagine its only a matter of time before he starts to go ape-shit and start destroying his opponents as he surely can.

Nalby put away Nieminen the other day, who I rate as good as Robredo, if not better, so Nalby should do this comfortably after a tight 1st-2nd set.