Jack's select plays.

[JackDee]

At 2.05 i am taking a big fat under myself man, just noticed it, albeit for my third test record, not much of an indepth view here, but with one team defending a 1-0 and with the other being very attentive to keep a clean sheet to avoid a dooming goal and score too i can't see why the over is favoured here. so 2% on that one for my record 3.

And 1 unit on roma at 1.6 at betfair (toti or no toti, with the average at 1.45 this is a gift)

 

[chriscol]

doesnt took too long for hamburg to score...1-0 after 60 sec...we will see

 

[jwblue]

One goal by Thun probably advances them. Probably nothing but defense the second half by Hamburg.

IS

 

[JackDee]

very quick goals might obviously favour the over, but are no indication of an over or under tendency, they are what they are, quick goals. btw, it's good to see the germans are capable of overcoming at least one nation in the footballing world, be it the lowly swiss.

 

[chriscol]

dont forget bremen's comeback. berlin is crap and in complete chaos right now (look at my last german-weekend thread), but schalke will go through and that better than nothing....münchen get s the critics from all over the place in germany right now, especially ballack with his continues trade rumors...and they deserve it.

 

[JackDee]

I see, still the general tendency for german teams is on the downhill unfortunately, you can't get all triumphant about either hamburg overcoming lowly toun or werder managing to conceed 2 goals at home.

"münchen get s the critics from all over the place in germany right now, especially ballack with his continues trade rumors...and they deserve it."

man i wish i hadn't bet them, they dissapointed the fuck out of me, and the way they almost collapsed after the 65th minute, these were no german champions, where was the spirit in this performance...

 

[JackDee]

btw, inspades man, that under came in nicely, didn't watch the game to know if it was lucky or not, but it seems my thinking was applied here with hamburg keeping that clean sheet and managing the exact goals needed for them, and the under.

what did the german press say about this game? did they make a big fuss about the game and go soft on bayerns performance?

 

[jwblue]

Jack,

I feel fortunate to win this one. Hamburgh played a man short for the last 8 minutes.

IS

 

[JackDee]

"Hamburgh played a man short for the last 8 minutes. " did you watch the game?

It doesn't mean that much in modern football to goer down, not like it used to, in any case this actually worked for the under, if the better team have the score they want and are a man down, they ll go steadier and tighter on the defence, so it worked to the the bets advantage.

 

[JackDee]

well, marginal loss for the day, (not counting the trial record), roma deliver, marseille score the odd extra goal and we lose the under.

be back. peace.

 

[JackDee]

Birmingham over Sunderland at 1.7 at the exhanges and a large amount of bookmakers for 2 units.

1 unit.
Santader over Alaves at 1.8 (was) pinnacle
Newcastle -1/4 at 1.9 over Everton
A Villa +1/4 at 1.95 pinnacle

Panathinaikos over Akratitos at 1.2
Valencia over Getafe at 1.45
Double 1.74 for 6%

i ll be back for more.

 

[Duckstabber]

Good luck, Jack! I like your Spanish picks lot. No opinion on the Greek and English games. (Perhaps a small lean towards Everton +0.25... And as I've stated in another thread, I'm also on the under in that match)

KALI TIHI!

 

[chriscol]

i like your birmingham play

 

[JackDee]

thanks guys for chiming in, kali tixi indeed, the british games where kind to us with 3-0 coming in, and thankfully chris birmingham cash, i am bit worried with santader in spain duck, looks like everyone and their half sister are on the train which, or so it seems, is not a good sign, but taking the lead from you and researching the game it does have all the makings of a good one, the over looks good there too. On the other hand valencia are hot as hell, not that form exists really but that's another story, and are showing champions determination and resiliance with a case in point their last game, they have very important players fit to play again and the odds are very good.

can't be bothered to update the record, the spanish games are for tommorow and are still pending, i ll post some more plays most probably.

 

[JackDee]

For starters some greek league bet(s), heavy chalk on aek over ionikos at betfair for 7.5% at 1.35. (betfair, you can find better prices with time probably, i just couldn't be arsed to let it linger longer and aim at a higher price...) Local derby coming up in a week and i can't see any of the two aek or panathinaikos dropping any points, i am not saying the refs will play any major role in this one but they ll be most content if the above senario is met, ionikos where aek's nemesis last year where they cost them the champions league position, so there's the revenge factor here, although that too is a marginal factor, fact of the matter is that some things have improved for aek with new transfers emerson and old timer lakis clicking in the team, ionikos will also miss some somewhat important defenders and...well i am rambling here about staff that most of you dont give a shit, and rightly so, about, so that's pretty much it.

(btw, i forgot to post and of course I am not counting it towards my record, but for my future reference the two 3% bets i took for the kalithea panionios game where the different favourites offered by the bookmakers, with most favouring kalithea and expekt correctly favouring panionios amongst the few, I took advantage of this betting 3% respectively on the away win at 2.9 and the home win and 2.8 and figured that the 1/4 or slightly more chances for the draw meant that it was as if i had bet the 12 at a favourite price of 1.5 which was slightly better than fair bet here)

 

[JackDee]

old jackie has been taking a royal nap these past days, and missed one of the most obvious betting "opportunities" in his local greek league b with aris, but oh well, as well as a few other bets he had in mind betting against belgian louvieroise or la louviere or whatever the hell it goes by these days, the fix me up team aka. Another brilliant bet I was planning to post was sporting lisboa over academica for the portuguese league, i really like away favourites and this one seemed to fit all the details, with the home dogs having plenty of absences and as i am about to post it and bet it, i check out my outs and none seems to have a line, i go what the fuck, then after some detective work i figure out that the game has already been played, and the bet i ve not actually bet been won, brilliant work Jack, just brilliant... but like i ve said one mind only and time's never enough...


Greek league:
Larisa over Ofi at 1.8 eurobet (coral's europian outlet) for 3.5%

Hard to find any value elsewhere, or maybe i am just too tired and too bored, ajax away win looks ok, but doesn't really qualify, a handicap for porto in portugal maybe, let me check if espaniol line has moved enough to my favour, i know duck likes sevilla and he is right, a lot of people who know what they are doing like it, but i see now (1x2 line from 2.6 to 2.9)the odds have moved considerably and this one is getting a lot of public action, with pinnacle currently offering 2.21 for the pk line, but i ll take canbets amongst others +1/4 goal for the home team at 1.85 for one unit, not betting it yet, just suggesting it, and seeing if the line moves at all in my favour.

As part of my third experimental record I am taking the under for the dutch derby of alkmaar with eindhoven. at betfair at around 2.2 if i can get any decent liquidity at betfair, some lesser shops have 2.25 too, or i might go for the 2.5/3 option at 2.0 at pinnacle. (btw can someone explain to me what under 2 3/4, i.e. 2.5,3 mean at some shops as pinnacle because i ve never bet them, if you get 2 goals it's obviously an under, and if it's 3 then you get your money back?) Way i see it is you got a top teams match up, two tired teams here, i can't see why the under is so high...A lot of people will be on eidhoven too but i am not yet sure about this.

well, that's all boys. bol.

 

[JackDee]

almost forgot my german picks...

1 unit for hamburg at 1.85 over Stutgard.

and 2 units on Duisburg over Herta pk at 1.78, courtesy of my aussie pals at canbet, but you can get better prices too i am sure, duisburg is a crappy team they are sitting last from bottom at the german league, but wait a sec at home, they ve only lost twice, sure enough they ve drawn 6 games and only won 2 but we are at pk here and herta, well they are in complete disfuckingarray this team is more akin to a hospital ward than anything else, half the team is out, and the other half is doubtful, surely a midweek trip to bucharest for a humiliating disqualification to some underpaid, underpriviledged romanians, wont help much here either. If i were booking this one, they d be no way in hell i d let a pk line out. If this herta manage to be the third team to beat duisburg at home, then so be it.

Hope that my buddy chriscol likes these.

 

[chriscol]

i like your hamburg play, but i ll not play duisburg...your write up is correct, but Berlin screwed me so many times, doesnt matter which side i ve chosen. If i pick duisburg i am sure Berlin find a way to win it. so as i leave it alone you might be lucky.

 

[JackDee]

i see my friend, everyone have their personal likes and dislikes, i d leave it alone too in your position.

"let me check if espaniol line has moved enough to my favour, i know duck likes sevilla and he is right, a lot of people who know what they are doing like it, but i see now (1x2 line from 2.6 to 2.9)the odds have moved considerably and this one is getting a lot of public action, with pinnacle currently offering 2.21 for the pk line, but i ll take canbets amongst others +1/4 goal for the home team at 1.85 for one unit, not betting it yet, just suggesting it, and seeing if the line moves at all in my favour."

Like i said I did not bet this one last night, waiting the line to move in my favour, and somewhat predictably it has, a lot of public action on this one I suppose, well, now Sevilla is offered at 1.93 at be365, 1.92 at pinnacle, and 1.9 at canbet +1/4 goal, with two minutes to gametime i talking this one, it most probably won't move any higher and we might see some decreasing adjustment.

 

[JackDee]

Main Record
19-1-3 +61.7425%

Larisa over Ofi at 1.8 eurobet for 3.5%. WON +2.8%

Pending:
Panathinaikos over Akratitos at 1.2
Valencia over Getafe at 1.45
Double 1.74 for 6%

Aek over Ionikos at 1.44 (betfair) for 7.5%
(I did wait for this one finally for the price increase)

Olympiakos pk at 1.55 over paok for 7.5%


Betting Record 2
13-1-5 + 20.7725% ( 7-1-2 5% bets, 6-3 2.5% bets)

Newcastle -1/4 at 1.9 over Everton 1 unit WON +2.25%
A Villa +1/4 at 1.95 pinnacle 1 unit WON +1.1875
Birmingham over Sunderland at 1.7 2 units WON +3.5%

Pending:
Santader +1/4 over Alaves at 1.8 pinnacle 1 unit
Sevilla +1.4 at 1.92 pinnacle 1 unit
Hamburg at 1.85 over Stutgard 1 unit
Duisburg over Herta pk at 1.78 2 units

Test Record.
3-1, +6.1%.

Pending:
Egaleo Kalamaria Over 2,2.5 pinnacle at 2.19 for 3%