fucking choked is what they did, takes a lot for a 1.3 favourite to lose a game where they are 1-0 up and playing against 10. What can you do, shit happens, they cost me too a lot of money.
But don't know if you noticed john i was actually on exactly the opposite side of Sevilla taking Espanyol +1/4 and being extremely suspicious of all the so called expert punters on the internet and in the print media favouring Sevilla read the bit on that in the previous page. As I ve not watched the game I ll have to read about it to find out how they managed to not only lose but get blown away, but good or bad teams, are not always as good or bad as they seem, and I was very confident about this bet, almost made it a two unit one. I am sorry you missed it and was on the other side. As for duisburg it didn't take a nuclear scientist to figure them out, although making it a 2 unit play i made damn sure i covered my ass taking the pk line. Don't know if you were on any of the 3-0 english bets yesterday, and larisa came in nicely for the greek league. As well as Olympiakos with their away win. Aek is struggling currently, and panathinaikos away win will be pointless as it was doubled with valencia.
Jack.
But don't know if you noticed john i was actually on exactly the opposite side of Sevilla taking Espanyol +1/4 and being extremely suspicious of all the so called expert punters on the internet and in the print media favouring Sevilla read the bit on that in the previous page. As I ve not watched the game I ll have to read about it to find out how they managed to not only lose but get blown away, but good or bad teams, are not always as good or bad as they seem, and I was very confident about this bet, almost made it a two unit one. I am sorry you missed it and was on the other side. As for duisburg it didn't take a nuclear scientist to figure them out, although making it a 2 unit play i made damn sure i covered my ass taking the pk line. Don't know if you were on any of the 3-0 english bets yesterday, and larisa came in nicely for the greek league. As well as Olympiakos with their away win. Aek is struggling currently, and panathinaikos away win will be pointless as it was doubled with valencia.
Jack.
Main Record
20-1-4 +59.895%
Panathinaikos over Akratitos at 1.2 WON
Valencia over Getafe at 1.45 LOSS
Double 1.74 for 6% LOSS -6%
Olympiakos pk at 1.55 over paok for 7.5% WON +4.1525%
Pending:
Aek over Ionikos at 1.44 (betfair) for 7.5%
Betting Record 2
13-1-5 + 25.4725% ( 8-1-2 5% bets, 8-4 2.5% bets)
Going 6-1 overall, and 2-0 in 2 unit bets.
Santader +1/4 over Alaves at 1.8 1 unit WON +1%
Sevilla +1/4 at 1.92 1 unit WON +2.3%
Hamburg at 1.85 over Stutgard 1 unit LOSS -2.5%
Duisburg over Herta pk at 1.78 2 units WON +3.9%
20-1-4 +59.895%
Panathinaikos over Akratitos at 1.2 WON
Valencia over Getafe at 1.45 LOSS
Double 1.74 for 6% LOSS -6%
Olympiakos pk at 1.55 over paok for 7.5% WON +4.1525%
Pending:
Aek over Ionikos at 1.44 (betfair) for 7.5%
Betting Record 2
13-1-5 + 25.4725% ( 8-1-2 5% bets, 8-4 2.5% bets)
Going 6-1 overall, and 2-0 in 2 unit bets.
Santader +1/4 over Alaves at 1.8 1 unit WON +1%
Sevilla +1/4 at 1.92 1 unit WON +2.3%
Hamburg at 1.85 over Stutgard 1 unit LOSS -2.5%
Duisburg over Herta pk at 1.78 2 units WON +3.9%
Main Record
21-1-4 +63.195%
Aek over Ionikos at 1.44 (betfair) for 7.5% WON +3.3%
Betting Record 2
13-1-5 + 25.4725% ( 8-1-2 5% bets, 8-4 2.5% bets)
Aek could have messed up a good betting weekend, but they didn't, could have been better, but going 8-2 I can't really complain, I am actually very grateful. In less than a month we have almost doubled one betting bankroll having made up to 88% of combined profit with some limited agressive staking but mostly with 2.5%, 5% bets and some 7.5% ones. This is commendable, but one own can always do better.
See you all in a few days.
Jack.
P.S. As I am writing this Real Mallorca turn a 0-1 deficit to Real Madrid to a 2-1 win. As i wrote in duckstabbers thread I was on them, and he was too, so a nice winner to end the day.
21-1-4 +63.195%
Aek over Ionikos at 1.44 (betfair) for 7.5% WON +3.3%
Betting Record 2
13-1-5 + 25.4725% ( 8-1-2 5% bets, 8-4 2.5% bets)
Aek could have messed up a good betting weekend, but they didn't, could have been better, but going 8-2 I can't really complain, I am actually very grateful. In less than a month we have almost doubled one betting bankroll having made up to 88% of combined profit with some limited agressive staking but mostly with 2.5%, 5% bets and some 7.5% ones. This is commendable, but one own can always do better.
See you all in a few days.
Jack.
P.S. As I am writing this Real Mallorca turn a 0-1 deficit to Real Madrid to a 2-1 win. As i wrote in duckstabbers thread I was on them, and he was too, so a nice winner to end the day.
Not at the beginning no, the learning curve is pretty steep, and it's not just knowing something superficially, it takes some time for it to sink in, I have done better, I 've done worse, I ve bet very impulsively, I have blown away bankrolls and months of good work by chasing losers, I ve bet blind drunk, I ve taken the most moronic positions in the most obvious bets, what for me is a fact is that i could be doing much better, of course I have been betting on and off because a proper job won't let you take up betting full time (last year for example I din't place a single bet for months), so time is a constraint, I ve got so many betting plans I have not taken up and so many areas I ve left uncovered, so many things I ve been meaning to read... a database project I never get around to implementing.
Jackie cannot resist another (winning) bet for the midweek although I vowed for a gambling chastity pledge, so I ve been making my hard, laboured way through the nasty, stinking shit that is the international friendlies trying to find some value, any value, some unders looked good and I dropped a test bet for brazil under at 1.93, pinnacle are patently opinionated when it comes to their over unders, but I can't see why this one should have such a high price for the under given the horrible pitch and weather conditions and the fact that it's a friendly.
Other than that i have tried hard to find something of value too for the euroleague, hard time boys, i am trying to filter all sorts of information and while it's worth a few bets none of them seem too strong, i ve debated hard with myself over betting my home teams of panathinaikos and olympiakos, but I don't feel it in my gut to bet them, and I be sorry if I miss out on the profits here, but it just doesn't right, so I am taking a grande bet for efes pilsen for two units at the tremendous odds pinnacle offer (and plenty of others) of 1.19 for 2 units. I hear you saying, wow, gutsy call Jack, you got balls of steel betting a 1.19 favourite...true, true very true...
Now if my guts somehow rearrange themselves I might come back with bets either for or against the greek euroleague-ers.
Other than that i have tried hard to find something of value too for the euroleague, hard time boys, i am trying to filter all sorts of information and while it's worth a few bets none of them seem too strong, i ve debated hard with myself over betting my home teams of panathinaikos and olympiakos, but I don't feel it in my gut to bet them, and I be sorry if I miss out on the profits here, but it just doesn't right, so I am taking a grande bet for efes pilsen for two units at the tremendous odds pinnacle offer (and plenty of others) of 1.19 for 2 units. I hear you saying, wow, gutsy call Jack, you got balls of steel betting a 1.19 favourite...true, true very true...
Now if my guts somehow rearrange themselves I might come back with bets either for or against the greek euroleague-ers.
A nice under comes in with Russia (who deserved the draw here from what I ve seen) Good chance to update my test record, which I ll do very infrequently because time's an issue, I am also going to be rasing my base stakes of 2% by 1% everytime i drop a bet in the test record, so this one i took for 4%, with 2 per cent being my base unit, which is open to a lot of discussion at best, and at worst unacceptable but like i said it's just a trial record, that doesn't have much bearing to me financially.
Test Record.
4-2, +6.82%.
I hope my greek boys don't screw me over and get as that is 1.3, they ve dominated the game so far and lost plenty of chances, and we are also waiting for the fucking turks (sorry but I intensly dislike turks) in the euroleague for another heavy chalk.
Test Record.
4-2, +6.82%.
I hope my greek boys don't screw me over and get as that is 1.3, they ve dominated the game so far and lost plenty of chances, and we are also waiting for the fucking turks (sorry but I intensly dislike turks) in the euroleague for another heavy chalk.
One superb goal from my manchester city boy Samaras, if you catch it in some highlights you ll know what I mean, and the greeks are up 1-0, and even if they don't score again which they probably will, there's no chance in hell that the it team will equalize, so, what with nowadays interest in the bank being around a 2-3 percent a year, it's nice to have a 1 or so increase in your bankroll in a day. I ll take a nap now.
Betting Record 2
14-1-5 + 26.2475% ( 8-1-2 5% bets, 9-4 2.5% bets)
Betting Record 2
14-1-5 + 26.2475% ( 8-1-2 5% bets, 9-4 2.5% bets)
man, am I pissed with the #@$# turks for dropping 2 whole units at home at a1.19 favourite, remind jack to not bet 2 units in a league he doesn't know this well, and above all to not take friends advice on his betting, no matter who knowledgeable they are (seem), but part of betting is suffering horrible upsets, wiping the shit away and continuing, i ll be on betfair while watching the italy germany game and if i find anything of value i ll post it.
Another betting weekend is at foot (pun intended) and I ve made some of my selections for it.
Let's start with the greek league bets.
Olympiakos -1 3/4 at 2.13 (10bet, pinnacle, pointbet, bet365 etc. all offer very close matches) over Ofi for 7.5%
The almost certain champions of the greek league face arch rivals Panathinaikos brother team. Two teams going in completely opposite ways, with ofi after a very long time in league 1 heading straight to relegation, something they fully deserve because they are no more, no less, pathetic. There are all sorts of factors favouring such a high bet here. First of all Olympiakos will be 90% playing at full strength, while their opponents have some minor injuries. Secondly, the revenge factor, as Olympiakos lost away to Ofi in the first round, one out of their two losses all season, with no draws either. Thirdly and most importantly, blowing Ofi away will be the demand of the fans, that are very eager to see their team putting a convincing nail on the coffin of a team that almost every season open the legs far and wide when playing with Panathinaikos and offer them 6 easy points. Another factor is the officiating but I won't go into that. This line is imo way off, I would not be booking this one at any other line than the -2 goals, the fact that we are having half our stake at odds of over 50% chance at 1 1/2, is as good a gift as they come. The books are going, well, by the book here calculating the odds via their power ratings and databases and hence the "objective", albeit, off line. I d add another 2.5% on Olympiakos but I am considering adding them on the moneyline for a some other bets, so for the time being, I ll refrain, but I suggest this bet wholeheartedly.
Panionios over Akratitos at 1.4
Olympiakos over Ofi at 1.15
Double for 5% at 1.61.
(Ι am also considering the following but havent made my mind up yet as to whether or how much I ll be staking these, Paok pk over Ionikos at 1.9, and the over 2 1/4 for the same game at 2.25 at pinnacle, the overs at Kalithea Levadiakos and Kalamaria Larisa at 2 1/4 at 2.27 and at 2.26 (pinnacle) respectively.The derby between Aek and Panathinaikos is among my considerations as well, I go to watch this game up close and personal so, hate to say that because I ll sound degenerate, regardless of the value I d like to have some action on it...and maybe if i dig enough i can even find value...but I ll definately have action...hehe.)
Taking the lead from duckstabber I have also bet on Valencia over Malaga at 1.9 and Mallorca +0.5 over Santader at 1.87 both for a unit, I considered doubling the unit in either one, but my gut feeling goes against it, and when this happens, I trust it. These are for the spanish primera of course. I ll also be betting an over in the primera, as you can see I am not betting a lot of these, mainly because I am not as good, at the moment, as I am in my other bets, but I think I ve spotted a nice one here in the Getafe v. Betis game, both of these teams have got key figures in their defences out, two central defenders that 've played for almost all their previous games for Getafe, one of them has actually played in all of them, and for Betis we have another important defender out, and a key defender very doubtful. In their home and away games combined the under is behind the over but only at 13-14, with getafes games played at home at 8-5 overs to unders actually. I see no reason consequently why the over should be priced at 2.15 chez pinnacle or 2 1/4 at 1.81 at ten bet, and after I finalize a few things, I ll bet a unit on that one. Pinnacle start moving this one down! Another bet for the primera will be La Coruna -1 over Barcelona at 1.89 Pinnacle. Granted barcelona are the shit at the moment, they 've won most teams at home with clear 2+ goals victories....BUT...first and foremost they ve had a lot, and I mean a lot of players both travelling away and playing away midweek for their national teams, that's taxing for a player, a good buddy of mine who is a former player and physio has told me that the average resting time for a football player to fully recuperate after a trip away and a game is 72 hours, secondly they got the game of the season coming up, and they can afford not playing that well with their clear lead in the championship, thirdly Coruna are one of the best away teams, equal to only Valencia and bettered only by Barca themselves with 7-3-2 record, better than real madrid, fourthly do you know that over the past five seasons they actually won more times at nou camp than Barca have at 3-2, and they've go the world to play for for the uefa spot, that's fifth, and we have a whole goal to our advantage here. What more can a bettor want? I don't need anything more to honour pinnacles 1.89 for a unit, and possibly two, I ve not made my mind up yet.
Now let's move over to near by portugal as Jack's weekend card expands and extends as a, well, something that expands and extends a lot. I ll gladly take Braga + 1/4 for a unit at pinnacles 2.1 (which have gotten the fair share of my action so far, so it's either me or them). Boavista have won their past 6 games in a row AND are playing at home so what the fuck I am doing here? Braga are the better team, a tough team, they are sitted higher and don't want to drop any points to ensure the go to the cl next year, they have on their part won only 3 out of their past six, but have drawn all the rest, and boavista will be without their very important center back defender and half right midfielder while braga are going there foul squad. Both have very tight defences, they score and receive few goals, and this under tendency of course favours the underdog as well. 1 unit for me on this one, and pinnacle start dropping your price again.
Now on to Germany, and I am taking my buddy's chriscol's suggestion for Bayern. As he mentioned van bouiten's out for hamburg, and from what I ve read two other relatively important players are out, blainlix and viki (sorry for the spelling), all the squares will be counting on Bayern's away game with Milan, but, wait a sec, hamburg got a game for the uefa too, and bayern have actually got some bench depth for too. I think everything warrants a 1.64 bet (betfair) for the home team, if bayern fuck me for the second time round, so be it, but this is the right bet. (another off the record reason I am on this is that a tipster I am following, big time fade material, is on the other side...)
Just as am about to place a bet on marseille on the handicap i am fortunate enough to read some french guy on the net saying they marsellese have anounced a few moments ago that they are fielding a team with 5 regulars and the rest from their b team... pinnacle have taken it off...betfair have their -1/4 handicap at 1.55 but you still get 1.8something, betclass are still offering this one at 2.1, but to be fair I ll quote this at 1.9 where it is still very available, the news are not the only reason I am taking this one, I have been going through psg results and looking at their shots on goals, comparing these to their results one can see how the ones are imcompatibles with the others, to cut a long story short, if a team take the right shots on goals but a result fails to come their way, it will sooner rather than later. And here's a good spot.
I got some more but later.
bol. Jack.
Let's start with the greek league bets.
Olympiakos -1 3/4 at 2.13 (10bet, pinnacle, pointbet, bet365 etc. all offer very close matches) over Ofi for 7.5%
The almost certain champions of the greek league face arch rivals Panathinaikos brother team. Two teams going in completely opposite ways, with ofi after a very long time in league 1 heading straight to relegation, something they fully deserve because they are no more, no less, pathetic. There are all sorts of factors favouring such a high bet here. First of all Olympiakos will be 90% playing at full strength, while their opponents have some minor injuries. Secondly, the revenge factor, as Olympiakos lost away to Ofi in the first round, one out of their two losses all season, with no draws either. Thirdly and most importantly, blowing Ofi away will be the demand of the fans, that are very eager to see their team putting a convincing nail on the coffin of a team that almost every season open the legs far and wide when playing with Panathinaikos and offer them 6 easy points. Another factor is the officiating but I won't go into that. This line is imo way off, I would not be booking this one at any other line than the -2 goals, the fact that we are having half our stake at odds of over 50% chance at 1 1/2, is as good a gift as they come. The books are going, well, by the book here calculating the odds via their power ratings and databases and hence the "objective", albeit, off line. I d add another 2.5% on Olympiakos but I am considering adding them on the moneyline for a some other bets, so for the time being, I ll refrain, but I suggest this bet wholeheartedly.
Panionios over Akratitos at 1.4
Olympiakos over Ofi at 1.15
Double for 5% at 1.61.
(Ι am also considering the following but havent made my mind up yet as to whether or how much I ll be staking these, Paok pk over Ionikos at 1.9, and the over 2 1/4 for the same game at 2.25 at pinnacle, the overs at Kalithea Levadiakos and Kalamaria Larisa at 2 1/4 at 2.27 and at 2.26 (pinnacle) respectively.The derby between Aek and Panathinaikos is among my considerations as well, I go to watch this game up close and personal so, hate to say that because I ll sound degenerate, regardless of the value I d like to have some action on it...and maybe if i dig enough i can even find value...but I ll definately have action...hehe.)
Taking the lead from duckstabber I have also bet on Valencia over Malaga at 1.9 and Mallorca +0.5 over Santader at 1.87 both for a unit, I considered doubling the unit in either one, but my gut feeling goes against it, and when this happens, I trust it. These are for the spanish primera of course. I ll also be betting an over in the primera, as you can see I am not betting a lot of these, mainly because I am not as good, at the moment, as I am in my other bets, but I think I ve spotted a nice one here in the Getafe v. Betis game, both of these teams have got key figures in their defences out, two central defenders that 've played for almost all their previous games for Getafe, one of them has actually played in all of them, and for Betis we have another important defender out, and a key defender very doubtful. In their home and away games combined the under is behind the over but only at 13-14, with getafes games played at home at 8-5 overs to unders actually. I see no reason consequently why the over should be priced at 2.15 chez pinnacle or 2 1/4 at 1.81 at ten bet, and after I finalize a few things, I ll bet a unit on that one. Pinnacle start moving this one down! Another bet for the primera will be La Coruna -1 over Barcelona at 1.89 Pinnacle. Granted barcelona are the shit at the moment, they 've won most teams at home with clear 2+ goals victories....BUT...first and foremost they ve had a lot, and I mean a lot of players both travelling away and playing away midweek for their national teams, that's taxing for a player, a good buddy of mine who is a former player and physio has told me that the average resting time for a football player to fully recuperate after a trip away and a game is 72 hours, secondly they got the game of the season coming up, and they can afford not playing that well with their clear lead in the championship, thirdly Coruna are one of the best away teams, equal to only Valencia and bettered only by Barca themselves with 7-3-2 record, better than real madrid, fourthly do you know that over the past five seasons they actually won more times at nou camp than Barca have at 3-2, and they've go the world to play for for the uefa spot, that's fifth, and we have a whole goal to our advantage here. What more can a bettor want? I don't need anything more to honour pinnacles 1.89 for a unit, and possibly two, I ve not made my mind up yet.
Now let's move over to near by portugal as Jack's weekend card expands and extends as a, well, something that expands and extends a lot. I ll gladly take Braga + 1/4 for a unit at pinnacles 2.1 (which have gotten the fair share of my action so far, so it's either me or them). Boavista have won their past 6 games in a row AND are playing at home so what the fuck I am doing here? Braga are the better team, a tough team, they are sitted higher and don't want to drop any points to ensure the go to the cl next year, they have on their part won only 3 out of their past six, but have drawn all the rest, and boavista will be without their very important center back defender and half right midfielder while braga are going there foul squad. Both have very tight defences, they score and receive few goals, and this under tendency of course favours the underdog as well. 1 unit for me on this one, and pinnacle start dropping your price again.
Now on to Germany, and I am taking my buddy's chriscol's suggestion for Bayern. As he mentioned van bouiten's out for hamburg, and from what I ve read two other relatively important players are out, blainlix and viki (sorry for the spelling), all the squares will be counting on Bayern's away game with Milan, but, wait a sec, hamburg got a game for the uefa too, and bayern have actually got some bench depth for too. I think everything warrants a 1.64 bet (betfair) for the home team, if bayern fuck me for the second time round, so be it, but this is the right bet. (another off the record reason I am on this is that a tipster I am following, big time fade material, is on the other side...)
Just as am about to place a bet on marseille on the handicap i am fortunate enough to read some french guy on the net saying they marsellese have anounced a few moments ago that they are fielding a team with 5 regulars and the rest from their b team... pinnacle have taken it off...betfair have their -1/4 handicap at 1.55 but you still get 1.8something, betclass are still offering this one at 2.1, but to be fair I ll quote this at 1.9 where it is still very available, the news are not the only reason I am taking this one, I have been going through psg results and looking at their shots on goals, comparing these to their results one can see how the ones are imcompatibles with the others, to cut a long story short, if a team take the right shots on goals but a result fails to come their way, it will sooner rather than later. And here's a good spot.
I got some more but later.
bol. Jack.
EPL
Arsenal +1/4 at 2.02
West Ham -1/4 1.87
Bolton +1/4 at 1.9
Blackburn +.5 at 1.88 1/2 a unit.
prices at the regular suspects, pinnacle, betfair, mansion etc.
A. Villa at 1.75 at centrebet or betfair or slightly higher at mansion have got me thinking real hard, it's a great bet but I having some trouble with the absences in the back, their stopper out and another defender, possibly one coming back from injury and a few kids throughn in...what the fuck...
A. Villa at 1.75 betfair.
Arsenal +1/4 at 2.02
West Ham -1/4 1.87
Bolton +1/4 at 1.9
Blackburn +.5 at 1.88 1/2 a unit.
prices at the regular suspects, pinnacle, betfair, mansion etc.
A. Villa at 1.75 at centrebet or betfair or slightly higher at mansion have got me thinking real hard, it's a great bet but I having some trouble with the absences in the back, their stopper out and another defender, possibly one coming back from injury and a few kids throughn in...what the fuck...
A. Villa at 1.75 betfair.
