You sound very sure about Olympiakos so I'll bite on that one. Paris Saint German sounds interesting too.
We also agree on West Ham but other than that I'm having trouble finding value in England this week. Same goes for Italy! I almost took Fulham +0.25 but Arsenal always seem to screw me no matter if I'm with them or against them - thus I stay away from The Gunners for the time being. (Btw, I assume you mean Arsenal -0.25)
Good luck!
We also agree on West Ham but other than that I'm having trouble finding value in England this week. Same goes for Italy! I almost took Fulham +0.25 but Arsenal always seem to screw me no matter if I'm with them or against them - thus I stay away from The Gunners for the time being. (Btw, I assume you mean Arsenal -0.25)
Good luck!
Thanks man.
"You sound very sure about Olympiakos so I'll bite on that one."
Well I am, I am, If you decide to play it I hope we both win here, a very telling sign is that, despite the limited liquidity, the most punters are offering for the handicap at betfair (post commision prices) are 1.4 for -1.5, 1.5 for -1.75 and 1.6 for -2.
"Paris Saint German sounds interesting too."
Yeah, they are a lot, price is currently, as I am sure you know, averaging a 1.69 at the few bookmakers are offering the bet, so much worse than even ten hours ago, and bodog are offering a 2.1, which is obvious that they are hosting an off line to incite some squares to get their money over there and blow them away latter on, fair enough bussiness decision imo.
I am using a different type of selection process for my english bets than the rest, and that's what I ve come up with and West ham is probably the best out of them, if i could stake them proportionaly, and yeap it's arsenal minus the quarter goal.
I found it really hard too to find anything of value in Italy, extremely hard so much as thought I didn't look into the games properly, so it's good to hear you don't like anything either. Spain is a diffent story. Let's see how it goes, bayern down by a goal a the moment let's also see if they can they turn it around, I am confident they will, otherwise i ll be 0-2 in bayern bets.
"You sound very sure about Olympiakos so I'll bite on that one."
Well I am, I am, If you decide to play it I hope we both win here, a very telling sign is that, despite the limited liquidity, the most punters are offering for the handicap at betfair (post commision prices) are 1.4 for -1.5, 1.5 for -1.75 and 1.6 for -2.
"Paris Saint German sounds interesting too."
Yeah, they are a lot, price is currently, as I am sure you know, averaging a 1.69 at the few bookmakers are offering the bet, so much worse than even ten hours ago, and bodog are offering a 2.1, which is obvious that they are hosting an off line to incite some squares to get their money over there and blow them away latter on, fair enough bussiness decision imo.
I am using a different type of selection process for my english bets than the rest, and that's what I ve come up with and West ham is probably the best out of them, if i could stake them proportionaly, and yeap it's arsenal minus the quarter goal.
I found it really hard too to find anything of value in Italy, extremely hard so much as thought I didn't look into the games properly, so it's good to hear you don't like anything either. Spain is a diffent story. Let's see how it goes, bayern down by a goal a the moment let's also see if they can they turn it around, I am confident they will, otherwise i ll be 0-2 in bayern bets.
ucking: pricks cost me earlier"thanks for the easy Kallithea over Jack..got back what those fuckin Bayern pricks cost me earlier"
I was wrong in betting them...of course you can be right and still lose, but I was wrong because a number of things did not warrant this bet. Sorry for that man, I really feel shitty if I post anything and some of you guys bet it and it doesn't hit...Easy over, 3-2 right now, and to think we had the 2.27 for 2.25...Levadiakos lost a penalti too...and that's probably going to cost me the handicap bet though, although there's still time in the game and they 're still making and missing chances.
I suggest you take the olympiakos asian hc bet john, a bet I feel very confident about, even if you get it at 3-5% less.
I was wrong in betting them...of course you can be right and still lose, but I was wrong because a number of things did not warrant this bet. Sorry for that man, I really feel shitty if I post anything and some of you guys bet it and it doesn't hit...Easy over, 3-2 right now, and to think we had the 2.27 for 2.25...Levadiakos lost a penalti too...and that's probably going to cost me the handicap bet though, although there's still time in the game and they 're still making and missing chances.
I suggest you take the olympiakos asian hc bet john, a bet I feel very confident about, even if you get it at 3-5% less.
that's what I thought too, but coruna proved a tough opposition for barcelona, and the whole goal difference on the handicap a very good insurance, hence our money back for this bet. And Braga managed the goaless draw they were aiming at, and half our stake will be returned and the other won.
To recap for the day:
EPL
Arsenal +1/4 at 2.02 Won +2.55
West Ham -1/4 1.87 Half Loss -1.25
Bolton +1/4 at 1.9 Loss -2.5
A. Villa at 1.75 Won +1.875
Primera
Coruna -1 over Barcelona at 1.89 Tie
Greek
Levadiakos +1/4 at 2.1 Loss -2.5
German
Bayern at 1.6 Loss -2.5
Portuguese
Braga + 1/4 at 2.1 +1.375
-2.95% for the day, slightly more than a unit, I guess I can afford it.
Betting Record 2
20-2-12 +18.2975% ( 8-1-3 5% bets, 12-1-8 2.5% bets)
The test record is doing better than I expected it...
Test Record.
5-2, +9.36%
PENDING:
Olympiakos -1 3/4 at 2.13 for 7.5%
Panionios over Akratitos at 1.4
Olympiakos over Ofi at 1.15
Double for 5% at 1.61.
One unit bets
Valencia over Malaga at 1.9
Mallorca +0.5 over Santader at 1.87
Getafe - Betis Over 2.5 at 2.15
PSG over Marseille at 1.9
To recap for the day:
EPL
Arsenal +1/4 at 2.02 Won +2.55
West Ham -1/4 1.87 Half Loss -1.25
Bolton +1/4 at 1.9 Loss -2.5
A. Villa at 1.75 Won +1.875
Primera
Coruna -1 over Barcelona at 1.89 Tie
Greek
Levadiakos +1/4 at 2.1 Loss -2.5
German
Bayern at 1.6 Loss -2.5
Portuguese
Braga + 1/4 at 2.1 +1.375
-2.95% for the day, slightly more than a unit, I guess I can afford it.
Betting Record 2
20-2-12 +18.2975% ( 8-1-3 5% bets, 12-1-8 2.5% bets)
The test record is doing better than I expected it...
Test Record.
5-2, +9.36%
PENDING:
Olympiakos -1 3/4 at 2.13 for 7.5%
Panionios over Akratitos at 1.4
Olympiakos over Ofi at 1.15
Double for 5% at 1.61.
One unit bets
Valencia over Malaga at 1.9
Mallorca +0.5 over Santader at 1.87
Getafe - Betis Over 2.5 at 2.15
PSG over Marseille at 1.9
Hey Jack, do you think it is dumb to take the over 2.5 in the Olympiakos game? Do you think they can get three goals? I know OFI probably isn't going to even get one. But, I was just looking for protection if they get one, or if Olypiakos scores three themselves. Thanks for your time, and good luck to you!!!!
jus, exactly as duck said it, your rationale for a so to speak "cover" bet (although cover bets are 99% of the time a big no, no because you are paying twice the vig for the same eventuality, and if you are right and you have the edge in both main and cover bet, which is rare, so be it, but if you are getting shortpriced in both then you are dooming yourself for no good reason) would only justify the under here at about 2.3 at the moment, meaning that you would be aiming for a clear 2-0 win for olympiakos, to win both bets, and covering for a low scoring draw or a 1-0 Oly win, making a small profit only if olympiakos had a +2 goal victory but an over result, and losing both in admittedly small probability that Ofi score BUT the rather large probability that Olympiakos score say 2 goals to win the game, which is all rather complicated, pointless and a losing proposition. But taking the over as an insurance,a as duck said, would mean that you are counting on Ofi scoring, otherwise your handicap bet on Olympiakos suffices. In this setup, and similar ones, the large handicap and the over are not actually complementary bets, but very similar ones, taking the away the propability that the much weaker team will score gives us the price for the handicap on the better team, slightly more than the over as it should be. So in similar senarios those two can't work to compliment each other, but rather one has to chose if they value the lesser teams chances to score higher than the over would imply and therefore chose to bet it instead of the taking the handicap... Well, it's getting late over here, and I am rambling but I think you get the gist of what I am saying.
"udging by what Olypiakos has done at home versus OFI over the years, OFI should get beat pretty bad. "
btw jus, if you 're not greek, and last time I checked baltimore wasn't anywhere near Athens, Greece, you are one informed punter having looked at the historical results too, not that they have any bearing most of the time, but sometimes they do.
btw jus, if you 're not greek, and last time I checked baltimore wasn't anywhere near Athens, Greece, you are one informed punter having looked at the historical results too, not that they have any bearing most of the time, but sometimes they do.
Hello Jack! Let me first say thank you very much for your time in posting, I really appreciate it! After reading what you and Duck wrote, I can see that Olympiakos -1.5,-2 is a much better pick than the over. In this particular game, it just looks so evident that OFI is not going to score. And, although history is not a giant factor, it still does go in Olypiakos favor at home:
20-11-2004 A Ethniki Olympiakos OFI 3 - 0
05-10-2003 A Ethniki Olympiakos OFI 4 - 1
01-02-2003 A Ethniki Olympiakos OFI 1 - 0
31-03-2002 A Ethniki Olympiakos OFI 3 - 0
03-02-2001 A Ethniki Olympiakos OFI 5 - 0
I honestly see much of the same here today. Also, OFI's road record is:
OFI 11 0 5 6 4 - 15 5 They don't even average scoring 1/2 of a goal a game on the road. I feel very confident that the worst case senerio of this game would be Olympiakos 2-0. But, I honestly believe that Olympiakos will clear the handicap. I also wanted to thank you for your compliment that I am an informed punter. I certainly try to be. I am not Greek, although I must say that Greeks are good people. I try to do my best research, but it is a little bit difficult at times in America, because there really are not that many outlets to give us soccer news on TV. I have to heavily rely on the Internet, but more times than not, the teams homepages are in their native languages, so I am am totally lost. But, of all the sports I bet, I do the best in soccer. And, it just might be because I don't have access to so many media outlets for soccer. I think sometimes that helps me by not getting too much information. Well, I guess I have to get running, but I just wanted to thank you for your time again, and I wanted to wish you all the best of luck on Olympiakos today. I honestly feel it will be a very easy winner. Best of luck to you!
20-11-2004 A Ethniki Olympiakos OFI 3 - 0
05-10-2003 A Ethniki Olympiakos OFI 4 - 1
01-02-2003 A Ethniki Olympiakos OFI 1 - 0
31-03-2002 A Ethniki Olympiakos OFI 3 - 0
03-02-2001 A Ethniki Olympiakos OFI 5 - 0
I honestly see much of the same here today. Also, OFI's road record is:
OFI 11 0 5 6 4 - 15 5 They don't even average scoring 1/2 of a goal a game on the road. I feel very confident that the worst case senerio of this game would be Olympiakos 2-0. But, I honestly believe that Olympiakos will clear the handicap. I also wanted to thank you for your compliment that I am an informed punter. I certainly try to be. I am not Greek, although I must say that Greeks are good people. I try to do my best research, but it is a little bit difficult at times in America, because there really are not that many outlets to give us soccer news on TV. I have to heavily rely on the Internet, but more times than not, the teams homepages are in their native languages, so I am am totally lost. But, of all the sports I bet, I do the best in soccer. And, it just might be because I don't have access to so many media outlets for soccer. I think sometimes that helps me by not getting too much information. Well, I guess I have to get running, but I just wanted to thank you for your time again, and I wanted to wish you all the best of luck on Olympiakos today. I honestly feel it will be a very easy winner. Best of luck to you!
