Jack's select plays.

[JackDee]

man did I sweat the panathinaikos game...and to tell you the truth I am way ahead in my betting, so I was sweating it off for some of you guys who might have bet it on my suggestion, it's one thing losing your money and quite another to incite others to lose too. In any case panathinaikos managed to turn a 0-2 deficit on the 65th minute and up to the 70th to a 4-2 win, fuck yes, and although they demonstrated all those playing elements that have cost them dearly this year (inability for creative football, capital errors in defence, some players distinct lack of quality, bad tactics from coach) they also demonstrated all the good elements for which I bet them determination (esp. from some key players), perseivereness, and signs that they've gotten finally together and somehow matured as a team.

Main Record
10-1-3 +28.45%

Bets
9-1-3 25.45%
Trades
1-0 3%

Pending
(bball) Panathinaikos over Aek 1.05(won), Olympiakos at 1.2 Aek at 1.35(won) for 5%
Olympiakos at 1.2 Panathinaikos at 1.65(won) for 7.5%

 

[JackDee]

Main Record
10-1-3 +28.45%

Bets
9-1-3 25.45%
Trades
1-0 3%

Pending
(bball) Panathinaikos over Aek 1.05(won), Olympiakos at 1.2 Aek at 1.35(won) for 5%
Olympiakos at 1.2 Panathinaikos at 1.65(won) for 7.5%

Betting Record 2
4-2 +7.33% ( 4-1 5% bets, 0-1 2.5% bets)

Again a 90th minute goal by Benfica cost us our bet, but, and let me dispel a myth here, far more goals are scored in the last minutes of a game than the public thinks they are, in any case a 3-0 game already settled going to 4-0 on the 90th minute and thus making the difference between a return of the stake and loss is harder to stomach. Still like I said I am trying a few new things out here, so a lesser yield will be acceptable.

bol.

Jack.

 

[jwblue]

Jack,

No doubt 89th and 90th minute goals are not uncommon. I got hosed on my Tottenham play this morning on one. It makes sense they would happen. One team makes a final rush to get a goal. Either they are successful or leave themselves weak defensively for a goal opportunity by the opponent.

IS

 

[JackDee]

exactly, but a lot of bettors think otherwise, I ll have to go through my stats and data, but, I think, I got it somewhere that the last minutes of a game are actually one of the highest scoring periods, I get back with you on that with the exact data when, and if I sort all my betting stuff out properly and find this one.

 

[joeyfitzclick]

any thoughts on West Ham V B'ham ?

 

[JackDee]

sorry I missed that joe, in any case i found no value in this one.


Schalke over Espanyol 1.68 at blue square. (1.78 -3/4 at pinnacle is decent too.) I expect this one to drop like a stone.

And for 1 unit.

Lille at 2.05 (canbet, betfair).

 

[JackDee]

"Schalke over Espanyol 1.68 at blue square. (1.78 -3/4 at pinnacle is decent too.) I expect this one to drop like a stone."

Of the only two bookmakers offering this one at -3/4, vcbet and 10bet have it priced at 1.7 (update: 10bet at 1.68 now), pinnacle currently only offer it -1 at 2.01 (with bet365 at 1.88!!!) and blue square dropped their 1x2 odds at 1.62.


updating

Main Record
12-1-3 +39.305%

Bets
9-1-3 25.45%
Trades
1-0 3%

Pending
Schalke over Espanyol 1.68 for 5%

Betting Record 2
4-2 +7.33% ( 4-1 5% bets, 0-1 2.5% bets)

Pending
Schalke -3/4 over Espanyol 1.78
Lille at 2.05 (the odds for this one have dropped too by about 8%)
Bolton at 2.08 (betfair)
All 1 unit bets.

Btw, anyone bet at betbutler? They are taking some rather, oh, well, should i say suicidal positions in their bets lately, if they don't attract enough squares anytime soon i expect them to be out of bussiness with such betting practises.

 

[JackDee]

 

[JackDee]

The lovely scarlett johansson was kind enough to grant us her blessings for another winning night, which could have been stellar had my boy stelios gianakopoulos managed to put bolton 1-0 ahead with his excellent header on the 90th, but, truth be told, the play there should have been the under and the draw, i was wrong, so no complaints. So to recap, both Schalke and lil won, albeit succeding at the impossible of fucking up a perfect 3-0 to a pathetic 3-2, 2 bets on Schalke, one on lil, and a loss on bolton. A couple of typical uefa upsets too, with levski, and above all rapid bucarest. I also have to ask our local german expert Chriscol why, again this year the german teams (well, not Schalke) are prone to such huge fuckups, is their level of football dropping that much, which i cant see why, or are eastern europian teams getting better? How come the germans the foremost nation of winning football mentality prove themselves such losers, it's impossible to fathom.

Thumbs up to roma, who come to prove that when a team is hot, it's hot against all odds, I can't remember seeing what they pulled off ever again, having a player sent off and being down to 10 on the 27th minute, and not only managing to score once, but again after being equalized, and thus win this one triumphantly. I know a lot of people where on them, and I am sorry I missed this one. What a great performance though...


Main Record
13-1-3 +42.705%

Betting Record 2
6-3 +8.43% ( 4-1 5% bets, 2-2 2.5% bets)

 

[JohnMolson]

Speaking of German teams taking a dump......here we go again.Hamburger laying an egg.down 1-0 to of all teams Thun at halfucking:

 

[JohnMolson]

<TABLE style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width=440 border=1><TBODY><TR bgColor=#e4ede5><TD width=25>FT'</TD><TD align=right width=140>Thun (Switzerland) </TD><TD id=res2 width=45>1 : 0</TD><TD align=left width=140> Hamburger (Germany</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>:monsters- :nopityA:

 

[Duckstabber]

Adding:

FT Stuttgart (Ger) 1 - 2 Middlesbrough

 

[JackDee]

don't you feel like shit though when you see a trend coming and yet not bet on it...shhh...and to think despite what i wrote and thought i almost conviced myself to bet on stuttgart, but later refrained...btw guys they line movement on hamburger was tremendous as I am sure you too noticed, a quarter ball, then half, and still dropping last time i checked this morning, with both german teams getting bet by everyone and the proverbial brother...lots of folk got burned today, glad we weren't on that boat...

None other than our main man here chriscol i think should provide, it's imperative actually, some clarification, some educated analysis on all these, like i said with that frequency it can't be a coincidence, and i lack the inside and indepth knowledge to have anything more than a vague observation on this. And if the germans are know for anything in soccer, and they are knows for a lot, but their prime characteristic is resilience, fighting spirit, and winning mentality, where the fuck is all that, we are talking here about big time melt downs...


And as john very succintly put it...

:nopityA:

 

[JackDee]

if anyone of you guys wants to drop me an email for some idle chit chat, or gambling talk or just to say hi, it's

jackdee@mail.gr

let's hook up, i don't always reply promptly mind you, lol.

 

[JackDee]

Roma over empoli at 1.4 pinnacle (real bargain) expect it to drop real soon, closest best thing is at betfair at 1.38, going towards main betting record for 7.5%

 

[JackDee]

Panathinaikos - Kallithea

Panathinaikos -1 3/4 at 1.99 10bet (bet365 at 2.0) for 7.5%

be back for more later.

bol boys.

 

[JackDee]

Greece Second Division (B Ethniki, B Katigoria)

Thrasivoulos - Aris
eurobet(coral's europian branch) away win at 2.9 for 3%
gamebookers draw at 2.8 for 3%

 

[jwblue]

Greece Second Division (B Ethniki, B Katigoria)

Thrasivoulos - Aris
eurobet(coral's europian branch) away win at 2.9 for 3%
gamebookers draw at 2.8 for 3%

Jack,

How do you feel about "Draw No Bet" wagers that some sportsbooks offer?

IS

 

[JackDee]

there's some simililarity with asian handicaps (pick'em), and if i remember correctly it's an aussie thing because I ve spotted them at australian books, and you know on principle it's a good option, but I don't think you ll find a good number with them most of the time and correct me if I am wrong the bookmaking margin they got is rather large. Draw betting is a serious no, no in soccer, which of course you can break wisely, and these types of bets I suspect are marketed towards someone with a background at another "no draw" sport, as the draw seems like a peculiarity at first from people with a background say in basketball or baseball, which they 'll at some point or another come to accept as they get used to the sport itself and betting at it. It's like the exact scores option where you get ripped by the book in general, but of course if you were best pals with belgian la louviere's coach and had it on good grounds that they were setting a game up for the exact "3-1" as part of their match fixing franchise you 'd have bet it, so if for some reason someone manages to find adequate value in a bet, even the most exotic prop, they should bet it no doubt. Have I managed to answer your question?

 

[JackDee]

Panathinaikos over Kalithea at 1.12
Ajax over Roosendal at 1.12
Feyenoord at 1.2
Combined at 1.51 (round up) for 7.5%
at victor chandler (now going by the ugly name of vcbet, for whatever reasons...)

For my second betting record I have the following.

2 unit Bets
West Ham +1/4 over Bolton at 2.05 victor chandler (2.07 at expekt, comparable prices at betfair small liquidity at the moment)
Ajax -2 at 1.85 bet365 (considering ajax is going against a team that has a stellar 10 defeats to one draw in their away games and 33-5 goals against, and their playing with some major absences this is a bargain)

1 unit bets
Villareal over Espanyol at 1.82 (betfair, betsafe)