Is -2.5 and -3.5 a profitable middle in the NBA?

[PanchoSanza]

The hook in the NBA is worth about 8.7 cents across ALL numbers, obviously it varies off certain #'s

Pinnacle will charge you more to buy it and wont pay you more than its worth to sell it. The most I see them giving you is 8 cents to sell them a hook. If they are paying you less than 8.7, your'e getting jipped

Where are you seeing them give you more than 8 cents?

 

[Fishhead]

You guys that think 1.5 point NBA middles are merely a break even proposition are wrong. If you're consistently getting 1.5 point middles on NBA sides at -1.10, you are going to put some people's lights out in the long haul.

A win longtern, yes......but a grind.

ONE point middles are not.....laying -110.

 

[PanchoSanza]

You guys that think 1.5 point NBA middles are merely a break even proposition are wrong. If you're consistently getting 1.5 point middles on NBA sides at -1.10, you are going to put some people's lights out in the long haul.

They are profitable, but not as much as you make it sound, you wont exactly put peoples lights out.

 

[royalfan]

BECAUSE YOUR PAYING 8-10 CENTS FOR A 6.7 CENT HALF POINT!!!!

:WTF:

Can you just answer this question Fish. I am not following you on this aspect. If you say that a half point is worth 6.7 cents then why can you sell a half point on pinnacle for 9-10 cents? This is where I am not following you and ice. I am sure there is a simple explanation, but I don't have it.

 

[PanchoSanza]

Can you just answer this question Fish. I am not following you on this aspect. If you say that a half point is worth 6.7 cents then why can you sell a half point on pinnacle for 9-10 cents? This is where I am not following you and ice. I am sure there is a simple explanation, but I don't have it.

Its worth 8.7 on average, pinnacle will charge you 9-10 to buy something worth 8.7 and will only give you 8-9 cents to buy it from you.

In cases where they are giving you 9 cents, its probly off a key # where its worth something like 9.5

 

[Fishhead]

I use 6.7 cents for my personal CUTOFF(because its easy and makes my NBA middles worthwhile)..............when actally a half point can/is worth a tad more.........7.0+ cents depending on the number involved.

The Majority of PINNYS sells are upgraded to 8 cents.......close to the AVERAGE ..........except on/off the number SEVEN which is worth more.

Remember also, your looking from a BOOKMAKERS perspective which will allow them to alter numbers and allow them to deal their OWN numbers.

 

[royalfan]

I use 6.7 cents for my personal CUTOFF(because its easy and makes my NBA middles worthwhile)..............when actally a half point can/is worth a tad more.........7.0+ cents depending on the number involved.

The Majority of PINNYS sells are upgraded to 8 cents.......close to the AVERAGE ..........except on/off the number SEVEN which is worth more.

Remember also, your looking from a BOOKMAKERS perspective which will allow them to alter numbers and allow them to deal their OWN numbers.

it seems panchos figure of 8.7 has to be more accurate, otherwise I still think in most cases you would be better off on all your plays selling a half point if you can get 8 or better if you think it is worth around 7. This is what I wasn't understanding all along.

 

[Anti-liberal]

They are profitable, but not as much as you make it sound, you wont exactly put peoples lights out.

Get enough VOLUME and you will. The formula for winning $$$ is "mathematical edge" X "volume". If, on average you have a 0.5% to 1% edge (that's profiting a half-cent to a cent on every dollar wagered in the long run), and you have a DAILY average volume of at least $25,000 to $60,000, you'll do just fine.

Scalps and middles aside, I'll gamble nickles and dimes usually, and up to 2 dimes on a play if I'm running good and in a pressing mode. If I see a 1.5 middle in NBA, I'll bet 5 dimes a side, if I can get it.

 

[Igetp2s]

Its worth 8.7 on average, pinnacle will charge you 9-10 to buy something worth 8.7 and will only give you 8-9 cents to buy it from you.

In cases where they are giving you 9 cents, its probly off a key # where its worth something like 9.5

For spreads between 3.5 and 10, they are generally selling for 9 cents, sometimes even 10.

 

[royalfan]

Can anyone find anything flawed about my system of determining if a middle is profitable or not using pinny's drop down that I described? Seems the perfect way of determing it, but curious if I am missing something or doing something wrong? Don't see how I could be, but certainly possible.

 

[PanchoSanza]

Get enough VOLUME and you will. The formula for winning $$$ is "mathematical edge" X "volume". If, on average you have a 0.5% to 1% edge (that's profiting a half-cent to a cent on every dollar wagered in the long run), and you have a DAILY average volume of at least $25,000 to $60,000, you'll do just fine.

Scalps and middles aside, I'll gamble nickles and dimes usually, and up to 2 dimes on a play if I'm running good and in a pressing mode. If I see a 1.5 middle in NBA, I'll bet 5 dimes a side, if I can get it.

Youll hold about 1.4 % on those types of middles, lots of better ways to earn out there. I dont even bother unless its at least 2 %

If you can get that kind of volume youll earn nicely. Good luck getting it unless you have stale locals who take a big pop.

 

[Fishhead]

it seems panchos figure of 8.7 has to be more accurate, otherwise I still think in most cases you would be better off on all your plays selling a half point if you can get 8 or better if you think it is worth around 7. This is what I wasn't understanding all along.

 

[PanchoSanza]

Can anyone find anything flawed about my system of determining if a middle is profitable or not using pinny's drop down that I described? Seems the perfect way of determing it, but curious if I am missing something or doing something wrong? Don't see how I could be, but certainly possible.

Their pricing is dead balls on 99 % of the time.

You wont be able to set up profitable middles using their drop downs if thats what your asking, they will charge you more than breakeven.

 

[Fishhead]

As stated, one should DEFINETLY take all 1.5 middles, even laying -110 on both sides...............as this has one only paying 6.7 cents PER HALF POINT................which we all know is worth more than that............expecially when the numbers 2, 5, and 7 are involved.

 

[Anti-liberal]

Youll hold about 1.4 % on those types of middles, lots of better ways to earn out there. I dont even bother unless its at least 2 %

If you can get that kind of volume youll earn nicely. Good luck getting it unless you have stale locals who take a big pop.

LOL...I'll take 1.4% for the rest on my life and die with a smile on my face.:hugesmile I get my volume by making 50 to 120 plays a day...all kinds of props, quarters, halves, HALF-TIMES (love those!) etc. One time I managed to make 120 plays of a day that featured only 3 NBA games and 2 NFL play-of contests. The shotgun approach works best for me. The edge seems to work itself out better, and the "breaks" even out. Anyways, thanks for leaving those 1.4% edges for bottom-feeders like me.

 

[PanchoSanza]

As stated, one should DEFINETLY take all 1.5 middles, even laying -110 on both sides...............as this has one only paying 6.7 cents PER HALF POINT................which we all know is worth more than that............expecially when the numbers 2, 5, and 7 are involved.

If its live in real time, I'll take it, if I have to chase it or use a questionable out for one of the legs, I wont bother.

Better opportunities out there.:drink:

 

[royalfan]

Their pricing is dead balls on 99 % of the time.

You wont be able to set up profitable middles using their drop downs if thats what your asking, they will charge you more than breakeven.

No that isn't what I am asking. I realize that is true. Talking about my toronto example from above. Is there anything flawed in coming to the conclusion that if the difference in the lines equates to 20 cents it is a break even middle, which obviously both sides will be different books, and if the method I used to get to the 20 cents spread was technically sound.

 

[royalfan]

also do you happen to have the value off past history of each particular half point Pancho? That would be awesome information if you do. Thanks for you informative posts.

 

[Fishhead]

No that isn't what I am asking. I realize that is true. Talking about my toronto example from above. Is there anything flawed in coming to the conclusion that if the difference in the lines equates to 20 cents it is a break even middle, which obviously both sides will be different books, and if the method I used to get to the 20 cents spread was technically sound.

No, because it is simply a DROPDOWN MENU and DIFFERENT LINE...........if they wanted they could give you 15 cents better if they wanted............sort of understand what I'm saying here?

FYI, tried at times to WAGER two different sides at PINNY on the same game.............one with the regular line and than the other side with the DROP DOWN MENU and they cut me off from doing so.

 

[PanchoSanza]

No that isn't what I am asking. I realize that is true. Talking about my toronto example from above. Is there anything flawed in coming to the conclusion that if the difference in the lines equates to 20 cents it is a break even middle, which obviously both sides will be different books, and if the method I used to get to the 20 cents spread was technically sound.

I dont see the Toronto example you are referring to, show me.

As far as what each hook is worth, use pinnacles dropdowns, they generally charge 1 cent more to buy a hook than the true value.