Lets analyze buying points both ways, take Mia/ Sac... line is Sac -5
I can buy 4 half points at 10 cents each, so:
Miami +7 -150 150 to win 100
Sac -3 -150 150 to win 100
You have to hit one, so you get back 250 of your 300
If Sac wins by 4,5, or 6 points, you win both for +200
If Sac wins by 3 or 7 you win and push for +100
2 full points seems the max buy before price increases beyond 10 cents a half point.
Thoughts on how often this bought middle might hit ? I'm sure the books have determined that two points is the most they can sell ( cheaply), and I doubt this middle is profitable. You can buy more, but the price goes up.
I can buy 4 half points at 10 cents each, so:
Miami +7 -150 150 to win 100
Sac -3 -150 150 to win 100
You have to hit one, so you get back 250 of your 300
If Sac wins by 4,5, or 6 points, you win both for +200
If Sac wins by 3 or 7 you win and push for +100
2 full points seems the max buy before price increases beyond 10 cents a half point.
Thoughts on how often this bought middle might hit ? I'm sure the books have determined that two points is the most they can sell ( cheaply), and I doubt this middle is profitable. You can buy more, but the price goes up.
Okay, finally going to show why the self proclaimed experts at scalping and middling are wrong on some issues clearly and once and for all with clear things they will not be able to respond to.
1. For Iceman. You just said a couple posts ago, that the true value of a half point is 7 cents yet pinny is charging you more and the value is proven to be 7 cents. By who? You? Whoever that person is they are completely wrong as pinny lets you sell a half and gives you 8 to ten cents depending on the situation. So right away you are wrong. Fish also argued this earlier on in the thread and I immediately showed him an example where you could sell a half at pinny for ten cents. If you can sell both ways for ten cents on a game at pinny that proves the one point middle is a profitable one, yet you guys say it isn't, which is ludicrous considering pinny is giving you the worst of it on the sale prices. I did notice that pinny is tending to only give 8 or nine points on the sells today, but that was not the case they day that this was being discussed.
2. Iceman is coming up with some stupid theory that I am just basing my criteria on buying prices from pinny. Give me some credit man. Why in the world would you think I am that simple minded when obviously that would be flawed due to the fact that pinny is jamming you up a bit on the prices. I would not make as much as I do if I were this dumb. Instead I take the average juice between the favorite and the dog to get the true representation of where the line would be with no juice. If this is too complicated for you I will give an example, ironically in a game where the positve expected value at full -110 juice is exactly break even, even though the geniuses in here say that a full point is not ever worth it. I say it is as long as you get better juice on it than my pinny method shows it is worth it. Atlanta game tonight, line is 7. on the drop downs if you take memphis down to 6 1/2 it makes atlanta -103 and memphis -107 so the AVERAGE of the two, which would be the TRUE odds in a no juice situation would be memphis -102 at this line. Now take Atlanta up to 7 1/2 points Atlanta is -124 and Memphis is plus 112 so the true odds would say atlanta is -118 at this line. Now if you add together the -118 to the -102 on the other side of the equator it is worth 20 CENTS!! Ala, we have an exactly break even middle chance at -110 juice. So there is my theory plain as day, explained perfectly. Now, I want Fish and Ice to tell me what is wrong with it.
1. For Iceman. You just said a couple posts ago, that the true value of a half point is 7 cents yet pinny is charging you more and the value is proven to be 7 cents. By who? You? Whoever that person is they are completely wrong as pinny lets you sell a half and gives you 8 to ten cents depending on the situation. So right away you are wrong. Fish also argued this earlier on in the thread and I immediately showed him an example where you could sell a half at pinny for ten cents. If you can sell both ways for ten cents on a game at pinny that proves the one point middle is a profitable one, yet you guys say it isn't, which is ludicrous considering pinny is giving you the worst of it on the sale prices. I did notice that pinny is tending to only give 8 or nine points on the sells today, but that was not the case they day that this was being discussed.
2. Iceman is coming up with some stupid theory that I am just basing my criteria on buying prices from pinny. Give me some credit man. Why in the world would you think I am that simple minded when obviously that would be flawed due to the fact that pinny is jamming you up a bit on the prices. I would not make as much as I do if I were this dumb. Instead I take the average juice between the favorite and the dog to get the true representation of where the line would be with no juice. If this is too complicated for you I will give an example, ironically in a game where the positve expected value at full -110 juice is exactly break even, even though the geniuses in here say that a full point is not ever worth it. I say it is as long as you get better juice on it than my pinny method shows it is worth it. Atlanta game tonight, line is 7. on the drop downs if you take memphis down to 6 1/2 it makes atlanta -103 and memphis -107 so the AVERAGE of the two, which would be the TRUE odds in a no juice situation would be memphis -102 at this line. Now take Atlanta up to 7 1/2 points Atlanta is -124 and Memphis is plus 112 so the true odds would say atlanta is -118 at this line. Now if you add together the -118 to the -102 on the other side of the equator it is worth 20 CENTS!! Ala, we have an exactly break even middle chance at -110 juice. So there is my theory plain as day, explained perfectly. Now, I want Fish and Ice to tell me what is wrong with it.
Royal, smart poster but your'e wrong here.
1 point middles in the NBA at 10 cents each way dont work, period.
Im basing that on about 30,000 games in my database. I think the best way to answer the debate is using past results.
Unless you know something about how the next 20 years worth of games will play out that we don't, we can say that 30,000 is a fair sample size to state conclusively that you need more than a 1 point straddle.
-6.5/+7.5 is about breakeven but thats it, the rest are losers.
1 point middles in the NBA at 10 cents each way dont work, period.
Im basing that on about 30,000 games in my database. I think the best way to answer the debate is using past results.
Unless you know something about how the next 20 years worth of games will play out that we don't, we can say that 30,000 is a fair sample size to state conclusively that you need more than a 1 point straddle.
-6.5/+7.5 is about breakeven but thats it, the rest are losers.
Doug said:
Most of the time you are correct sir, but I just showed one today that is exactly break even, so if you feel like gambling at even value, you could fire it up. Usually you would need to get somewhere around -107-109 juice to make it break even depending on the situation. That is the point I am trying to make, that not all of these are losing values, according to pinnacle. Still awaiting Fish and Ice to tell me what is wrong with my method though and why you can sell a half at pinny for 8-10 cents if it is truly only worth 7 cents.
