On the Boston game tonight where the line is 3, pinny doesn't think 2 1/2 and 3 1/2 would be profitable as it is only an 18 cent gap not the necessary 20. Slightly different from the Wizard game the other night, but still illustrates it is very close to a break even deal and certainly would not send one to the outhouse as Fish says and if you get any better than average of -109 juice in this spot tonight pinny says it is worth it.
There is NO number in the NBA worth a FULL TEN cents..........and precisely why shops have no problem with players buying half points for TEN cents.
In football, no shops these days will allow buying on/off the number 3 for ten cents.........and even some on/off the number 7.
In the NBA, I see no shops not allowing one to buy a half point for ten cents..................WHY?.............because the player would be taking the worst of it.
In football, no shops these days will allow buying on/off the number 3 for ten cents.........and even some on/off the number 7.
In the NBA, I see no shops not allowing one to buy a half point for ten cents..................WHY?.............because the player would be taking the worst of it.
Fishhead said:
very much agree with this statement, which is why I said you need -109 or better juice on this game. The Wizard game the other night, according to pinny -110 juice would have even been ever so slightly profitable. My point is that this is very very close to being a break even situation one way or the other and many very smart people have claimed it is not even close to that. Just want some explanation from these people to back up this stance and how that can be based on what pinny says the numbers are. I think I am analyzing it correctly so don't see how I could be wrong.
Fishhead said:
Fish....tried searching quite a bit for this thread to no avail....when I search for threads started by you it only goes up to 4 pages, which isnt far enough.. also tried searching the subject in advance search with subject line only etc but couldn't find it.... if you could do us all a favor and post the lin Im sure it would be greatly appreciated
Thanks
royalfan said:
Pinny at times charges 13 cents on/off the number 7.......do you think 7 is worth 13 cents!?!?
To be honest, your confusing me in what you are actually asking.
NO NUMBER IS WORTH 10 CENTS IN THE NBA.......IF IT WERE, ONE WOULD/SHOULD BE BUYING HALF POINTS(FOR 10 CENTS) on ALL THOSE NUMBERS............WHICH ISN'T THE CASE.
Fishhead said:
me too. I am completely confused on what he is asking. I want to chime in but think I am missing something.
Here is my take: you should pay NO MORE than 7 or cents for a half a point on an NBA side and Pinny is charging you 10-11 cents for that side. You are not getting a bargin or deal. You are paying more for that half a point than you should.
If you know you are going to pay full juice on each side this is how I fugure it out. 20 cents being paid (only 10 cents because you lose only 1 bet but you say 20 cents being paid). You go form -2.5 to -3 and that is 7 cents paid, you then go to -3 to -3.5 and that is 14 total cents total for moving up a half point and then you go from -3.5 to -4 for a 21 cents paid that is -2.5 to -4 a 1.5 point middle and you have know paid 21 cents meaning you are actually paying more than the juice and have hit your breakeven point.
Not at all trying to be funny or a smartass but showing you the steps on how I was taught to figure this out since the beginning and use everyday still. I am not sure if you use a different approach.
Not at all trying to be funny or a smartass but showing you the steps on how I was taught to figure this out since the beginning and use everyday still. I am not sure if you use a different approach.
Royal,
I think you are very smart and have proven alot to me in the past year but what I think you are getting confused on is you are looking at it oppposite and saying Pinny is charging you 10 cents for a half point so if that is the case than 20 cents equal a 1 point middle. The point is they are giving you the worst of it for getting a half point. It has already been established that the half point is worth 7 cents or so so they are going to charge you MORE for a half point.
I think you are very smart and have proven alot to me in the past year but what I think you are getting confused on is you are looking at it oppposite and saying Pinny is charging you 10 cents for a half point so if that is the case than 20 cents equal a 1 point middle. The point is they are giving you the worst of it for getting a half point. It has already been established that the half point is worth 7 cents or so so they are going to charge you MORE for a half point.
Iceman said:
Do you think the value of 1/2 point is at all related to totals? If so, even though college buckets is more 'random', wouldn't 1/2 point side on a college game with a total of 110 be worth more than an NBA game with a total of 215 because there is less chance of deviation from the line due to less points being scored?
I'm pretty sure that in NFL -2.5, +3 is a much stronger play on a game with a 31 total than one with a 50 total. I know it applies to soccer. Not sure about buckets.
bj77pkr77 said:
sure completley. Like a 1st half lined 50 in CBB total. How many combos do you think can realistically hit. Maybe between number 30 and 80(and that might be stretching it) so 50 different combos. In NBA game total of 215 you could have between 170 and 250 which is 80 different combos. This is a half ass way of looking at it but I thik you get what I am saying.
