Is -2.5 and -3.5 a profitable middle in the NBA?

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Doug

Doug

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Fishhead said:
No, because it is simply a DROPDOWN MENU and DIFFERENT LINE...........if they wanted they could give you 15 cents better if they wanted............sort of understand what I'm saying here?

FYI, tried at times to WAGER two different sides at PINNY on the same game.............one with the regular line and than the other side with the DROP DOWN MENU and they cut me off from doing so.
Click to expand...

That's weird !

I thought Pinny offered lines because they were in the business of taking bets ?

There should be bets on the other side of your bets, giving Pinny vig, no ?
 

wrongturn

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Shouldn't pinny also give 1 cent less to sell a hook than the true value? If that is the case, some games have half points that worth 10c.
 

PanchoSanza

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wrongturn said:
Shouldn't pinny also give 1 cent less to sell a hook than the true value? If that is the case, some games have half points that worth 10c.
Click to expand...

Which game are you seeing where they are giving you 10 cents extra to lay an extra half ?

All I see is either 8 or 9 cents.
 
Doug

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There is an SBR thread with some great info from their math wizard ( Ganchrow). I bumped it, so it's near the top.
 
Doug

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<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=ats>Spread</TD><TD class=ats>N</TD><TD class=ats>Freq.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>1</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3,413</TD><TD class=ats align=right>2.05%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>2</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3,839</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4.04%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>3</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4,631</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3.91%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>4</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4,925</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3.51%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>5</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4,829</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4.47%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>6</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4,455</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4.15%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>7</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3,978</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4.40%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>8</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3,429</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4.37%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>9</TD><TD class=ats align=right>2,983</TD><TD class=ats align=right>5.20%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>10</TD><TD class=ats align=right>2,486</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4.26%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>11</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,884</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3.98%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>12</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,457</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3.43%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>13</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,168</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3.94%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>14</TD><TD class=ats align=right>880</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3.98%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>15</TD><TD class=ats align=right>612</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4.41%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>16</TD><TD class=ats align=right>388</TD><TD class=ats align=right>6.19%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>17</TD><TD class=ats align=right>221</TD><TD class=ats align=right>4.07%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>18</TD><TD class=ats align=right>132</TD><TD class=ats align=right>2.27%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>19</TD><TD class=ats align=right>52</TD><TD class=ats align=right>5.77%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><HR>Methodology:
  • All NBA regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from http://www.covers.com/) from the 1990/1 season through November 17<SUP>th</SUP> of the 2006/7 season were analyzed (18,368 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
  • The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 1 point of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 2 and 4.
  • This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->__________________
 
CalvinTy

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Pancho Sanza said:
Which game are you seeing where they are giving you 10 cents extra to lay an extra half ?

All I see is either 8 or 9 cents.
Click to expand...
Just read the whole thread... I only want to mention that since I play a NBA system on this forum for halves/games, I do play with Pinny's drop-down menu to find which half point I feel I want to risk or give, etc.

So yes I do SEE 10 cents extra to lay extra half... in fact, I see one right away (lol, it was even the 1st game I looked at the drop-down menu, ha):

NY Knicks
Ind -6.5 +102

lay extra half -7 +112

is that what some posters are trying to mention?

* CalvinTy
 
Doug

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Here's NFL :

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=ats align=left>Spread</TD><TD class=ats align=left>N</TD><TD class=ats align=left>Freq.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>0</TD><TD class=ats align=right>434</TD><TD class=ats align=right>0.00%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>1</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,344</TD><TD class=ats align=right>2.08%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>2</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,667</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1.62%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>3</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,788</TD><TD class=ats align=right>9.51%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>4</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,855</TD><TD class=ats align=right>2.75%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>5</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,892</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1.80%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>6</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,278</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3.52%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>7</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,158</TD><TD class=ats align=right>6.13%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>8</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,089</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1.93%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>9</TD><TD class=ats align=right>833</TD><TD class=ats align=right>0.84%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>10</TD><TD class=ats align=right>546</TD><TD class=ats align=right>5.13%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>11</TD><TD class=ats align=right>426</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1.88%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>12</TD><TD class=ats align=right>355</TD><TD class=ats align=right>0.85%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>13</TD><TD class=ats align=right>229</TD><TD class=ats align=right>0.87%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>14</TD><TD class=ats align=right>181</TD><TD class=ats align=right>6.63%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>15</TD><TD class=ats align=right>136</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1.47%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>16</TD><TD class=ats align=right>89</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3.37%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>17</TD><TD class=ats align=right>46</TD><TD class=ats align=right>8.70%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>18</TD><TD class=ats align=right>30</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3.33%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<HR>Methodology:
  • All NFL regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from NFL Picks, College Football Picks, Winning Points) from the 1993/4 season through week 4 of the 2006/7 season were analyzed (3,382 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
  • The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.
  • This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.
 
CalvinTy

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Doug said:
nine looks like a key number !
Click to expand...
So from what I understand in those links, for ATS pushes (great for middling, duh me), meaning if we find a line at -8.5 and -9.5 scattered around, then we could middle it with -8.5 and inverse at +9.5 and hope that 5% "average of a likely push on 9" hits, right?

* CalvinTy
 
royalfan

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Fishhead said:
No, because it is simply a DROPDOWN MENU and DIFFERENT LINE...........if they wanted they could give you 15 cents better if they wanted............sort of understand what I'm saying here?

FYI, tried at times to WAGER two different sides at PINNY on the same game.............one with the regular line and than the other side with the DROP DOWN MENU and they cut me off from doing so.
Click to expand...

No, I guess I don't see what you are saying. I would if Pinny did play games with drop downs but they don't so the drop downs should give you a true indicator of what the true odds are if you split the difference between the home and away team's juice at the particular line the way I see it. Then you move the line to the other end of the middle and do the same thing and then if the difference is more 10 cents is is profitable at -110 juice. I still don't understand why this isn't sound and your logic of just because it is a dropdown it doesnt work doesnt make sense to me.
 
royalfan

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Pancho Sanza said:
I dont see the Toronto example you are referring to, show me.

As far as what each hook is worth, use pinnacles dropdowns, they generally charge 1 cent more to buy a hook than the true value.
Click to expand...


Here is my example. See anything wrong with it?

Atlanta game tonight, line is 7. on the drop downs if you take memphis down to 6 1/2 it makes atlanta -103 and memphis -107 so the AVERAGE of the two, which would be the TRUE odds in a no juice situation would be memphis -102 at this line. Now take Atlanta up to 7 1/2 points Atlanta is -124 and Memphis is plus 112 so the true odds would say atlanta is -118 at this line. Now if you add together the -118 to the -102 on the other side of the equator it is worth 20 CENTS!! Ala, we have an exactly break even middle chance at -110 juice. So there is my theory!! Please tell me what is wrong with it. Haven't heard anything yet that makes sense, yet I keep hearing this isn't a break even middle.
 
Fishhead

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Here's NFL :

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=ats align=left>Spread</TD><TD class=ats align=left>N</TD><TD class=ats align=left>Freq.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>0</TD><TD class=ats align=right>434</TD><TD class=ats align=right>0.00%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>1</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,344</TD><TD class=ats align=right>2.08%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>2</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,667</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1.62%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>3</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,788</TD><TD class=ats align=right>9.51%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>4</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,855</TD><TD class=ats align=right>2.75%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>5</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,892</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1.80%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>6</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,278</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3.52%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>7</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,158</TD><TD class=ats align=right>6.13%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>8</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,089</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1.93%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>9</TD><TD class=ats align=right>833</TD><TD class=ats align=right>0.84%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>10</TD><TD class=ats align=right>546</TD><TD class=ats align=right>5.13%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

PRECISELY WHY TAKING +6.5 and +9.5 is not advisable if one can buy up an extra half point for 10 cents.
 

wrongturn

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From Ganchow's NBA summary, it is worthwile to middle 9, 16, and 19 with full -110 juice, although 16 and 19 are not reliable because of the small sample size.
 
Doug

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CalvinTy said:
So from what I understand in those links, for ATS pushes (great for middling, duh me), meaning if we find a line at -8.5 and -9.5 scattered around, then we could middle it with -8.5 and inverse at +9.5 and hope that 5% "average of a likely push on 9" hits, right?

* CalvinTy
Click to expand...

In theory yes. You need to hit 4.76 % to break even. I wouldn't play it, myself. It's a little too thin of an edge for me.
 
Doug

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Fishhead said:
Here's NFL :

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=ats align=left>Spread</TD><TD class=ats align=left>N</TD><TD class=ats align=left>Freq.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>0</TD><TD class=ats align=right>434</TD><TD class=ats align=right>0.00%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>1</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,344</TD><TD class=ats align=right>2.08%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>2</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,667</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1.62%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>3</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,788</TD><TD class=ats align=right>9.51%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>4</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,855</TD><TD class=ats align=right>2.75%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>5</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,892</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1.80%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>6</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,278</TD><TD class=ats align=right>3.52%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>7</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,158</TD><TD class=ats align=right>6.13%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>8</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1,089</TD><TD class=ats align=right>1.93%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>9</TD><TD class=ats align=right>833</TD><TD class=ats align=right>0.84%</TD></TR><TR><TD class=ats align=right>10</TD><TD class=ats align=right>546</TD><TD class=ats align=right>5.13%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

PRECISELY WHY TAKING +6.5 and +9.5 is not advisable if one can buy up an extra half point for 10 cents.
Click to expand...

You might as well go thru it to +7.5, and +10.5.
 
Fishhead

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Doug said:
In theory yes. You need to hit 4.76 % to break even. I wouldn't play it, myself. It's a little too thin of an edge for me.
Click to expand...


.........and the "HIT" rate is lower on the #9 if you go back the 10 years prior to the 93-94 season.

Agree the past 12 years can be viewed as more significant(different game and lower scoring)............but on the flipside, adding 10+ years provides an even bigger sample.
 
Fishhead

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Fishhead said:
.........and the "HIT" rate is lower on the #9 if you go back the 10 years prior to the 93-94 season.

Agree the past 12 years can be viewed as more significant(different game and lower scoring)............but on the flipside, adding 10+ years provides an even bigger sample.
Click to expand...


One thing you should all take from this........the numbers ONE, THREE, FOUR are, for a better term, the deadest numbers between 1-10.

This is relatively the SAME from 83-94 also.
 

wrongturn

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A related question is what about the middles for half game, 1H or 2H. Are any of those worth higher?
 
Doug

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wrongturn said:
A related question is what about the middles for half game, 1H or 2H. Are any of those worth higher?
Click to expand...

all of them are worth more on a half, I'd take a 1 point middle ( hoops) on a half, but only the 1st half, second half is as good, but numbers dance around too much to try to middle, for my tastes.
 
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