Is -2.5 and -3.5 a profitable middle in the NBA?

[Iceman]

Here is my example. See anything wrong with it?

Atlanta game tonight, line is 7. on the drop downs if you take memphis down to 6 1/2 it makes atlanta -103 and memphis -107 so the AVERAGE of the two, which would be the TRUE odds in a no juice situation would be memphis -102 at this line. Now take Atlanta up to 7 1/2 points Atlanta is -124 and Memphis is plus 112 so the true odds would say atlanta is -118 at this line. Now if you add together the -118 to the -102 on the other side of the equator it is worth 20 CENTS!! Ala, we have an exactly break even middle chance at -110 juice. So there is my theory!! Please tell me what is wrong with it. Haven't heard anything yet that makes sense, yet I keep hearing this isn't a break even middle.

Royal,
I have to back to work but I will be quick with this. First off don't take this the wrong way but you get REALLY defensive, as bad as any poster on here. I don't know why as NOBODY is trying to argue you with you opr even criticize you. If anything it is obvious you have alot to add. I really wish you would lighten up as I think we all can learn from each other but you make it that I don't want to even get involved because I am afraid you are going to fly off the handle. You just seem a little forward. We are all trying to win by learning anything we can from others to help our bottm line.

With that said you have me COMPLETELY 1000% confused. You are looking WAY WAY to deep and somewhere along the line someone is getting the terminology messed up. So here is the best I can explain it using the above data:

$-110/+100 -3.5 AND $-110/ +100 +4.5 is a 1 point middle and the number 4 hits on the PUSH chart 3.5% of the time. We have established that, PEORID. Lets all forget about true lines and 7 cents a side for now.

If out of 100 bets 3.5 bets win than 96.5 bets lose on the above bet. So 96.5 losing bets at $10 lost for each bet is $965 lost. Now 3.5% of those 100 plays are winners and each winninng bet pays $200 so 3.5 times $200 equals = $700 won after a hundred middles of -3.5 andf +4.5 subtract that from the juice lost on the 96.5 losing bets ($965 total) and you are -$265 after 100 1 point middles.


Basically you need a 4.76% push rate on a number to beat -110 on both sides or 20 cents total juice when added together (than you divide by two) witha 1 point middle.

 

[WVU]

you guys are confusing yourselves more than you have to. Either way this thread is a good read

 

[Fishhead]

you guys are confusing yourselves more than you have to. Either way this thread is a good read

:hahahahah :hahahahah :hahahahah :hahahahah

 

[royalfan]

Royal,
I have to back to work but I will be quick with this. First off don't take this the wrong way but you get REALLY defensive, as bad as any poster on here. I don't know why as NOBODY is trying to argue you with you opr even criticize you. If anything it is obvious you have alot to add. I really wish you would lighten up as I think we all can learn from each other but you make it that I don't want to even get involved because I am afraid you are going to fly off the handle. You just seem a little forward. We are all trying to win by learning anything we can from others to help our bottm line.

With that said you have me COMPLETELY 1000% confused. You are looking WAY WAY to deep and somewhere along the line someone is getting the terminology messed up. So here is the best I can explain it using the above data:

$-110/+100 -3.5 AND $-110/ +100 +4.5 is a 1 point middle and the number 4 hits on the PUSH chart 3.5% of the time. We have established that, PEORID. Lets all forget about true lines and 7 cents a side for now.

If out of 100 bets 3.5 bets win than 96.5 bets lose on the above bet. So 96.5 losing bets at $10 lost for each bet is $965 lost. Now 3.5% of those 100 plays are winners and each winninng bet pays $200 so 3.5 times $200 equals = $700 won after a hundred middles of -3.5 andf +4.5 subtract that from the juice lost on the 96.5 losing bets ($965 total) and you are -$265 after 100 1 point middles.


Basically you need a 4.76% push rate on a number to beat -110 on both sides or 20 cents total juice when added together (than you divide by two) witha 1 point middle.

I am asking what is wrong with my system. It seems to tell exactly what pinny believes the odds of hitting the middle would be. I understand the push charts as perfectly as anyone, that is not my question. I thought I worded the Toronto example perfectly, so not sure what you are confused about. I am looking for someone that can tell me what is wrong with my system of determining if a middle is profitable, not looking at past push charts. I am looking at what is likely to happen, not what has happened, and just want someone to explain what I am doing wrong or if it is the right way to do go about it as it is odd that it isnt matching up with past charts.

 

[royalfan]

you guys are confusing yourselves more than you have to. Either way this thread is a good read

You are good with numbers, being the bonus whore extroidinare, do you see what I am trying to do with that Toronto game and is it sound theory?

 

[wrongturn]

Agree, it is confusing, but it contains good info as well. One thing out of this discussion is that if you like a team, don't bet on the current line, sell it as much as possible if you can get 8c+ on each half point.

 

[royalfan]

Agree, it is confusing, but it contains good info as well. One thing out of this discussion is that if you like a team, don't bet on the current line, sell it as much as possible if you can get 8c+ on each half point.

I agree, that is what people are seeming to be saying and I know it isn't correct to do that.

 

[Iceman]

I am asking what is wrong with my system. It seems to tell exactly what pinny believes the odds of hitting the middle would be. I understand the push charts as perfectly as anyone, that is not my question. I thought I worded the Toronto example perfectly, so not sure what you are confused about. I am looking for someone that can tell me what is wrong with my system of determining if a middle is profitable, not looking at past push charts. I am looking at what is likely to happen, not what has happened, and just want someone to explain what I am doing wrong or if it is the right way to do go about it as it is odd that it isnt matching up with past charts.

I have read it 3 times and honestly get more confused every time. I figure out EVERYONE of my middles to see if they are profitbale based on the data I have from years of past results.

I really think you are making this way to confusing. I am not NOWHERE at the level you are at with regards to what you are talking about. I am just using basic math to try and get an edge.

 

[Iceman]

You are good with numbers, being the bonus whore extroidinare, do you see what I am trying to do with that Toronto game and is it sound theory?

one other thing.

It has been established that basically to win you can't pay much more than 7 cents a side (from the above data). That is proof, right? Now Pinny is charging you around 10 cents to come off the number and improve it. Paying 10 cents for something that is worth only 7 cents is not smart and I think we all agree on that.

 

[royalfan]

one other thing.

It has been established that basically to win you can't pay much more than 7 cents a side (from the above data). That is proof, right? Now Pinny is charging you around 10 cents to come off the number and improve it. Paying 10 cents for something that is worth only 7 cents is not smart and I think we all agree on that.

So answer this question. Every single NBA side possible tonight you can sell a half for 8 cents. You saying you should always take advantage of that since 7 cents is the value?

 

[wrongturn]

Iceman, how do you explain some 10c selling price? One thing I notice is that pinny changes the price of half point from time to time on the same game, so it reflects its opinion on a game in real time, I think.

 

[Fishhead]

So answer this question. Every single NBA side possible tonight you can sell a half for 8 cents. You saying you should always take advantage of that since 7 cents is the value?

SEVEN cents is the "WORTH THE TIME AND ENERGY" number for the "PLAYER".............the number 6.7 is the one I came up with YEARS and YEARS ago.

It makes things SIMPLE...........

FOR EXAMPLE..........

 

[WVU]

You are good with numbers, being the bonus whore extroidinare, do you see what I am trying to do with that Toronto game and is it sound theory?

I do see what you are saying, but I do not trust that Pinny is giving true odds on point buys and sells. The math you show looks correct, but I have no real way of testing it. Either way, a spreadsheet with long past history that Pancho utilizes would be the telling factor.

I do not find middles to make my profits. I find bets. When my bets become middles then that is just gravy. Each and every bet I make has an ultimate pupose. That purpose is usually to bust out or to finish up wagering requirements. I do not have the time to seach and hope for middles day in and day out. They happen naturally once in a while anyway. I could increase my profits per deal by studying middles more closely, but it would take away the time I spend finding the next deal.

 

[Fishhead]

SEVEN cents is the "WORTH THE TIME AND ENERGY" number for the "PLAYER".............the number 6.7 is the one I came up with YEARS and YEARS ago.

It makes things SIMPLE...........

FOR EXAMPLE..........

..........if your debating whether or not to go for a 1.5 middle............do not SPEND over 20 cents...........


6.7 x 3 half points = 20.1 cents

 

[royalfan]

I understand that going off past charts is one way of doing this to determine profitability. I think that is a pretty good indicator, no question about it. I just think my method is a possible even better way of determining it. So I will try and do this even more clear and detailed this time with a fresh example with up to date lines.

Milwaukee at chicago tonight. Current line is 7 1/2 and at that number Milwaukee is is -107 and Chicago is -103. So if Iceman and I were at the bar enjoying some drinks and wanted to make a fair value wager on the game we would have to assume the fair line to be 7 1/2 with the bucks favored at -102 juice, correct? That seems pretty cut and dry.

So now we take the dropdown to make the line 6 1/2 points instead. At this particular line the Bucks would be +112 and the Bulls -124. So if Iceman and I decided to use the 6 1/2 line instead for our friendly wager the fair line would be -118 juice if we took the bookies out of it.

So here we have two lines that cross over a potential number of 7. This is the one point middle we are talking about the entire thread. I am thinking that since the average juice in the first example(aka the fair juice for me and Icemans friendly wager) is milwaukee at -102 and in the 2nd example it is the bulls -118 on the average juices, which equates to a difference of 20 cents, that this would be an exact break even middle according to pinnacle. Again, anyone, please explain what is flawed here.

 

[PanchoSanza]

how are you converting -107 -103 to -102?

then in the 2nd example, +112 and -124 you are converting to -118?

Im lost here

 

[royalfan]

..........if your debating whether or not to go for a 1.5 middle............do not SPEND over 20 cents...........


6.7 x 3 half points = 20.1 cents

I see what you are now saying is that it is YOUR time and energy number and maybe that is what Ice is saying also, but he has never said that. What I am curious to know is what the TRUE value is so each half point is so each one of us could then determine if it is personally worth the time and effort.

 

[royalfan]

how are you converting -107 -103 to -102?

then in the 2nd example, +112 and -124 you are converting to -118?

Im lost here

I am just taking the difference between the home and road teams juice to make the line perfectly fair for a friendly wager between two guys. Assume that you pinny has a team at -500 and the dog at plus 300. If you and I were at the bar wanting to bet each other on that game we would have to make it a line of -400 to make it fair. Same thing I am doing on the juice for the bucks and bulls at both the 6 1/2 and 7 1/2 lines. That make sense?

 

[wrongturn]

There is some confusing in your method of calculating the everage juice. Everage -107 and -103 is -105. No?

 

[Fishhead]

how are you converting -107 -103 to -102?

then in the 2nd example, +112 and -124 you are converting to -118?

Im lost here[/quote]



PANCHO, ICEMAN, and a cast of RXers attempting to make sense of ROYALFAN and his inquiry.