Iceman said:
Lately I've been not trying to cap it with stats. I'm trying relying on some others that freely give their picks like Spreadbeater, Brewers, Frog, and a couple of others. In particular guys that seem to have a knack for being on the correct side of line moves, or even help cause them.
The free half I get on everything helps a lot, it's like betting at -103, even with that, I look more to betting at halftime. I have a better feel for it after I see what's happened in H1. I bet many more overs than unders in H2. I'm also likely to bet Q3 and Q4 under, instead of H2 under, if I like under.
I do a good number of H2 parlays ( usually fav and over) at +280. I also play some big dogs on ML for Q1 only. Some props also. I want to do more props in the future.
Iceman said:
aparently not if you ask pinny as I showed the math and proved i am correct. They are saying the half points from 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 are worth 10.25 cents each making the number three in the nba a slightly profitable middle at -110 albeit very slightly. Yet another guy that I would not expect to be wrong on this particular subject.
Yoshi said:It still doesnt make sense Ice...if they give you 8-10 (and you can check that in the drop down), why should you only pay 7 to buy the point on the same number? Because they are so generous?
You as a gambler should pay no more than 7 cents a side for a half point in NBA , they (Pinny) in turn are charging you 10 cents. I don't claim to be a sharp but where are we all going wrong with this. They are making you pay MORE for a half a point than you should. So if they have -7 -110 and you want to go down to -6.5 you shouldn't pay over -117 for it is what i am saying, they are charging you -6.5 -121 currently for that half point on a game right now (Chicago Bulls)
Iceman said:
Ice: I'm thinking that the 1.5 points is likely +EV, but not much, although you can't find it.
Explain this :
Overnite Memphis/ Boston game
Memphis +3 -107
Boston -3 -103
If you could get Memphis +3.5 -110, you could sell it back to Pinny as Bos -3.5 +105, and only lose 5 cents ( and the vig is higher on the non-standard line).
A point off of Pinny is probably good ( unless higher than -110).
I'm really thinking that theoretical 1.5 point gap is worth just a little, possibly because of the cumulatie effect that occurs as the gap widens, one point is definetly not enough.
I'm thinking about what might happen if you buy in both directions at different books. Like spread ( hoops) is 5, buy as much ( cheaply) as you can to get it down to -3 or so, and buy elsewhere to get it to maybe +7 ?
Probably won't work, but an idea !
he does have a pretty good grasp but may be overanalyzing it as I showed the math that shows 2 1/2 -3 1/2 is essentially a break even deal according to pinnacle. Very slight edge to the player, which makes 1 1/2 points an obvious gold mine at least when the number three is involved in it.
If you do a SEARCH on this subject(NBA middles), you will find many posts on this subject from me.
As mentioned in my initial post in this thread........laying -2.5 and taking +3.5 will lead you to the outhouse if your laying -110 on both sides.
You would be very hard pressed to find anyone on this forum that has middled/scalped the NBA "numbers" over the many years as I have(not boasting, just trying to give you guys background for my reasoning) and have spent EXTENSIVE time researching numbers in the NBA going back to the 1981-82 seasons to the present time and have a very sophisticated "database" for my percentages on ALL numbers in the NBA..........in which 3-4 years ago I posted what EVERY number was worth in terms of cents.
Again, laying 2.5 and taking +3.5 laying -110 each way WILL NOT show you a profit over the years.
As mentioned in my initial post in this thread........laying -2.5 and taking +3.5 will lead you to the outhouse if your laying -110 on both sides.
You would be very hard pressed to find anyone on this forum that has middled/scalped the NBA "numbers" over the many years as I have(not boasting, just trying to give you guys background for my reasoning) and have spent EXTENSIVE time researching numbers in the NBA going back to the 1981-82 seasons to the present time and have a very sophisticated "database" for my percentages on ALL numbers in the NBA..........in which 3-4 years ago I posted what EVERY number was worth in terms of cents.
Again, laying 2.5 and taking +3.5 laying -110 each way WILL NOT show you a profit over the years.
