Delta...I do think Nevada's defense will improve against the pass this year. When you are dead last in pass rankings, you know there is nowhere to go but up. But realistically, teams don't improve from being ranked 120 in the country in pass defense to the top 50. The improvments are always gradual, and never as fast as anticipated. I think where you'll see the biggest improvment from Nevada is their play within their own conference. And also when they play at home. I actually think they have a decent chance to knock off Missouri a couple weeks after they play ND. But I just don't think this is a good spot for them. They are playing a team who easily knocked off another WAC team in the bowl when ND beat Hawaii. The same team who beat Nevada on the same field earlier in the season. I just don't think that the Nevada defense can compete physically with a BCS caliber offense on the road. This game will be more about the big guys up front than it will be the Nevada secondary and whether they've imprved this season.
DEAC....The only reason that I'm not playing Tulsa in this first game is a new QB going on the road for the first time and expected to cover 14 points. And going against a new Tulane defensive coordinator who likes to throw in a lot of blitz packages. I really like Todd Graham. And I believe him when he says this could be his most talented team. But it's just a little rule that I have with new QB's trying to cover the spread as a road favorite in their first division 1 game.
A few teams that are on my radar. I won't play all of these. I'm just waiting for fall practices to end and the lines to hopefully sway my way the closer we get to kickoff.
Illinois-The only thing that concerns me at all here is the 16 point line change from last year. But look at these player losses for Mizzou: Chase Daniel, Chase Coffman (all american), Jeremy Machlin (all american), RB Jimmy Jackson, LB Brock Christopher, DL Ziggy Hood, S William Moore, DI Strykar Sulak, K Jeff Wolfert (best kicker in Mizzou history). If there was ever a time for Illinois to get the monkey off their back with this team it is this year.
Army....Possible running dogs against an Eastern Michigan team that has only been a favorite twice in the last 3 years. And never by this many points.
LSU...I usually don't make it a habit of laying this much chalk on the road. But I think LSU is a sleeper team this year and possible national title contender. If QB Jordan Jefferson starts living up to his VHT billing, then we could see LSU back in the title game. I think they could be this good. And I also think they are going to be highly improved on defense with a new and better DC. Washington simply doesn't have the horses to stay on the field with this team for a full 60 minutes. Plus Jake Locker may not be completely comfortable in a new offense in this first game. Mistakes are sure to be made.
Va Tech...This team is extremely strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball, which allows them to compete with any team out there. They were basically able to just run all over and control the Cincy defense in their bowl game. Which was a head turner for me because I thought Cincy could win that game. What it does is make me think that VT can do what Clemson couldn't do against Bama last season in this first game. Go head to head in the trenches for a full 60 minutes. There isn't enough developed skill talent on either side of the ball for either of these teams to run and hide from each other. Plus with losing 3 players form the OL Bama won't be quite as dominant as to have their way with any defense this year. Maybe the biggest drawback for Bama is having a new QB going on the road and expected to cover 7 points in what will be a low scoring game.
Georgia..There are a lot of disagreements on this game, which in my opinion is good. I hate to be preaching to the choir here and everybody likes one team. I've seen a fair share of people who swear up and down that OSU is going to kick their asses and take numbers. But I think that people need to realize that this Georgia team consistently puts together top 10 recruiting classes year after year. And these aren't a bunch of panzies coming to town for OSU to beat up on. The Pokes up to this point have been very good beating the "lesser" teams. But they have consistently had trouble against the Big Dawgs. Pardon the pun. And I think you'll find that the Georgia defense is a little more stout than expected. Richt obviously worked on many things and got some defensive players healed in that month last year before their bowl game. And the strength of their defense started to show in holding MSU to 12 points and pretty much shutting them down. I think that progress will continue here. I think I read somewhere where Richt is something like 30-4 in true road games...Wow! Boone Pickens may be able to buy OSU a new stadium, but I'm not so sure he can buy a cover.
La Tech...Lot's of disagreements on this game too. But the reality is, an experienced La Tech is coming to town playing a team with a new coach and their third different offense in the last 3 years. Confusing? Could be. But asking a team who only averaged about 20 points a game last season to win by double digits right out of gate might be asking too much in their first game. With Malzahn as their new OC I have no doubt that Auburn will develop on offense better this year than last. But asking them to hit the ground running with a group of offensive starters that aren't all that talented in the first place might be asking too much.
Memphis...This is just a consideration at this point. I'm still not sure Ole Miss is the real deal until I actually see them play. I know they lost a couple studs off of their OL that could slow them down early. I would like to see this line go up some more.
Ohio...UCONN loses some offensive firepower from last season plus is going to a new offensive system with a new QB going on the road for the first time as favorites. The negative here is Ohio just isn't that good on defense, and I may have to see more points to seriously consider them.
NCST...I'm still considering this team. But I would like to see this line come down to 3.
CAL...I'm still considering this game. Even at 21. Maryland gave up over 150 yards rushing per game last year. And after graduations now have a very inexperienced defensive line going up against a team who averaged over 180 rushing per game last season and are expected to be even more dominant this year. Not a good combination at all. Jahvid Best will get on the Heisman map right out of the chute. I think he could run wild and easily have a 200 yard game. The trick is if QB Riley will just manage the game or try to make some plays. I would rather have him just hand off to Best and let him do his thing.
I've got a few other teams under consideration. But I would really need the lines to start moving my way before I would consider them. I would also prefer to get this next week of practice overwith with hopefully no injuries before I put any more money down.
Illinois-The only thing that concerns me at all here is the 16 point line change from last year. But look at these player losses for Mizzou: Chase Daniel, Chase Coffman (all american), Jeremy Machlin (all american), RB Jimmy Jackson, LB Brock Christopher, DL Ziggy Hood, S William Moore, DI Strykar Sulak, K Jeff Wolfert (best kicker in Mizzou history). If there was ever a time for Illinois to get the monkey off their back with this team it is this year.
Army....Possible running dogs against an Eastern Michigan team that has only been a favorite twice in the last 3 years. And never by this many points.
LSU...I usually don't make it a habit of laying this much chalk on the road. But I think LSU is a sleeper team this year and possible national title contender. If QB Jordan Jefferson starts living up to his VHT billing, then we could see LSU back in the title game. I think they could be this good. And I also think they are going to be highly improved on defense with a new and better DC. Washington simply doesn't have the horses to stay on the field with this team for a full 60 minutes. Plus Jake Locker may not be completely comfortable in a new offense in this first game. Mistakes are sure to be made.
Va Tech...This team is extremely strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball, which allows them to compete with any team out there. They were basically able to just run all over and control the Cincy defense in their bowl game. Which was a head turner for me because I thought Cincy could win that game. What it does is make me think that VT can do what Clemson couldn't do against Bama last season in this first game. Go head to head in the trenches for a full 60 minutes. There isn't enough developed skill talent on either side of the ball for either of these teams to run and hide from each other. Plus with losing 3 players form the OL Bama won't be quite as dominant as to have their way with any defense this year. Maybe the biggest drawback for Bama is having a new QB going on the road and expected to cover 7 points in what will be a low scoring game.
Georgia..There are a lot of disagreements on this game, which in my opinion is good. I hate to be preaching to the choir here and everybody likes one team. I've seen a fair share of people who swear up and down that OSU is going to kick their asses and take numbers. But I think that people need to realize that this Georgia team consistently puts together top 10 recruiting classes year after year. And these aren't a bunch of panzies coming to town for OSU to beat up on. The Pokes up to this point have been very good beating the "lesser" teams. But they have consistently had trouble against the Big Dawgs. Pardon the pun. And I think you'll find that the Georgia defense is a little more stout than expected. Richt obviously worked on many things and got some defensive players healed in that month last year before their bowl game. And the strength of their defense started to show in holding MSU to 12 points and pretty much shutting them down. I think that progress will continue here. I think I read somewhere where Richt is something like 30-4 in true road games...Wow! Boone Pickens may be able to buy OSU a new stadium, but I'm not so sure he can buy a cover.
La Tech...Lot's of disagreements on this game too. But the reality is, an experienced La Tech is coming to town playing a team with a new coach and their third different offense in the last 3 years. Confusing? Could be. But asking a team who only averaged about 20 points a game last season to win by double digits right out of gate might be asking too much in their first game. With Malzahn as their new OC I have no doubt that Auburn will develop on offense better this year than last. But asking them to hit the ground running with a group of offensive starters that aren't all that talented in the first place might be asking too much.
Memphis...This is just a consideration at this point. I'm still not sure Ole Miss is the real deal until I actually see them play. I know they lost a couple studs off of their OL that could slow them down early. I would like to see this line go up some more.
Ohio...UCONN loses some offensive firepower from last season plus is going to a new offensive system with a new QB going on the road for the first time as favorites. The negative here is Ohio just isn't that good on defense, and I may have to see more points to seriously consider them.
NCST...I'm still considering this team. But I would like to see this line come down to 3.
CAL...I'm still considering this game. Even at 21. Maryland gave up over 150 yards rushing per game last year. And after graduations now have a very inexperienced defensive line going up against a team who averaged over 180 rushing per game last season and are expected to be even more dominant this year. Not a good combination at all. Jahvid Best will get on the Heisman map right out of the chute. I think he could run wild and easily have a 200 yard game. The trick is if QB Riley will just manage the game or try to make some plays. I would rather have him just hand off to Best and let him do his thing.
I've got a few other teams under consideration. But I would really need the lines to start moving my way before I would consider them. I would also prefer to get this next week of practice overwith with hopefully no injuries before I put any more money down.
GS, the thing that concerns me the most with VaTech is that they lost a high caliber player named Darren Evans to a torn ACL who had over 1200 yds rushing and 11 TD's on 290 attempts. I think without him the opposing teams will not have to load the box to stop the run. Now they have an inexperienced player named Josh Oglesbyat RB who had only about 40 attempts with ruffly about 100 yds rushing for his first season in 2008. Behind this young RB are 3 freshman RB's with no collegiate experience. I know Tyrod Taylor will cause some issues for other teams, but it kinda makes me wonder what will happen to them this year.
This is also my main concern witn VT, and the only thing that has kept me from pulling the trigger on this team.. I've heard these freshmen in waiting are very good. But I'm still monitoring their practices to see how they are coming along. Of course Bama also lost a 1,400 yard rusher with Coffee. So they also have to replace a good rusher and are expected to be weaker there this season.
Always nice to see you back GS, I really do hope the greatest of seasons for you my friend. Its been fun through the years going back and forth with you. GL
My two cents: I agree CAL or no play. No value in the line at this point IMHO. Then again I like Texas and theres no value there either haha
My two cents: I agree CAL or no play. No value in the line at this point IMHO. Then again I like Texas and theres no value there either haha
GS as for LA Tech:
This team lacks playmakers. They have not shown much ability to put points on the board and be competitive when stepping up in class on the road. Scored only 7 points against Army and only scored 17 points against Northern Illinois in their bowl game and one of the touchadowns was scored on a kickoff return. Auburn defense was on the field so much last year due to the inept offense that the final numbers are a bit misleading. Chris Todd was not that bad until he injuried his shoulder. I believe he is a transfer from Texas Tech. I like Malzahn a lot too. I do not understand the line dropping on this one. Agreed, I am not much of a fan of laying double digits with a new coach in the first game. Just can't see LA Tech scoring more than 10 points in this game
This team lacks playmakers. They have not shown much ability to put points on the board and be competitive when stepping up in class on the road. Scored only 7 points against Army and only scored 17 points against Northern Illinois in their bowl game and one of the touchadowns was scored on a kickoff return. Auburn defense was on the field so much last year due to the inept offense that the final numbers are a bit misleading. Chris Todd was not that bad until he injuried his shoulder. I believe he is a transfer from Texas Tech. I like Malzahn a lot too. I do not understand the line dropping on this one. Agreed, I am not much of a fan of laying double digits with a new coach in the first game. Just can't see LA Tech scoring more than 10 points in this game
VOR...Nice to see you back. This Cal line is tough because I was anticipating somewhere around a 14 point line this summer. And everybody was foaming at the mouth here at playing Cal, including me. But my thinking is along the lines of a few other people I know when they say the linesmakers set this line high on purpose to scare off a few of those Cal backers and to get some Maryland action on this game. I think it was probably mission accomplised with many of these bettors. But my thinking all along has been that Cal is at the very least 3 TD's better than this depeted Maryland squad this year. The line feels about right when you consider last season when it opened at around Cal -15. You give Maryland 3 points for home field last season and the linesmakers thought Cal was 18 points better. You give Cal the 3 point homefield advantage this year and we're talking -21, despite the upset that Maryland pulled last season.
