Minnesota would look more suspicious to me if it was bet up or the line was set at -10 or more. And this price it's an excellent bet. imo. The first week is a little different than the other weeks of the year where the linesmakers have a teams performance to base a line on. In this first week it's basically formulas, data and hype that help them set their lines.. And they're going to be off now and then, like I think they are here. Take advantage of the first week while you can. You don't get another one like it. As for Texas, I would either bet the Horns or just leave the game alone. I prefer to just leave it alone. Big spread games like this are no fun more me to bet or watch for that matter.
Dick Twomey has San Jose State believing they can step on the field and actually play against other D-1 teams nowadays. I'm thinking about taking them and the 36.5 against a true freshman starting qb, even though he's god's next gift to earth (Barkley). Thoughts? Again, it's a big spread, but the situation sets up well with USC thinking large about their next game being with Ohio State.....
I've just started looking at the USC/SJST game. Tomey has always been one of my favorite coaches. USC will have such a good offensive line and running game, that I think it will take some pressure off of whoever is at the helm in that game. -34 is a lot of wood to give. And they do have Ohio St. on board the next week. The only negative: San Jose has had problems in the past scoring points against the BCS conference schools. Only 12 last season vs Nebraska and 10 vs Stanford. Only 3, 14 & 0 the year before. They'll have to score some points here to cover against a potent USC offense..
7 months of ongoing discussions that we have had up to now GoSooners. I can hardly believe it's about to get real.
Do you remember that song "Sweet Judy Blue Eyes" by Crosby Stills and Nash? There's a line in it that goes, "Will you come see me, Thursdays and Saturdays? What have you got to lose?"
Here's what I make of it. The girl that song was written about was a football fan and he wanted her to keep him company watching the college games however she had no action on them because she only bet NFL.
Do you remember that song "Sweet Judy Blue Eyes" by Crosby Stills and Nash? There's a line in it that goes, "Will you come see me, Thursdays and Saturdays? What have you got to lose?"
Here's what I make of it. The girl that song was written about was a football fan and he wanted her to keep him company watching the college games however she had no action on them because she only bet NFL.
Conan...I wish I could find a "Sweet Judy" who would sit with me for 15 straight hours on Saturday watching football. I told my girlfriend not to even bother me on this day unless she's into making trips to the freg bringing me my adult beverages. I think we've reached an understanding...I don't think she's going to be around. But to make up for it I've got to kiss her ass the rest of the week. I haven't even brought up the topic of ESPN Thursday night football. I hope she has TIVO.
Been lurking around this forum for a while. Excited to join in the many great disscussions that take place here.
Gosooners, I was wondering what you thought about the under the OU/BYU game. It's at 68.5, and with all the changes on the OU offense and the returning starters on the BYU defense, plus this game being in Dallas (and not in Norman) I'm thinking under might be a good play. And looking at last year when OU matched up against an MWC team there was a total of 45 points scored in that game against TCU.
It seems to me that the under is a good looking play.
Gosooners, I was wondering what you thought about the under the OU/BYU game. It's at 68.5, and with all the changes on the OU offense and the returning starters on the BYU defense, plus this game being in Dallas (and not in Norman) I'm thinking under might be a good play. And looking at last year when OU matched up against an MWC team there was a total of 45 points scored in that game against TCU.
It seems to me that the under is a good looking play.
linebets...Ole Miss is kind of an enigma with me this season. As much as everything says they will be an SEC/Title contender with their favorable schedule and basically the only proven QB in the SEC besides Tebow, the percentages tell me it may not happen for them this year. The down side of Ole Miss is even though they didn't lose very many players from last year's team, the ones they lost from both lines were key players that will all be playing on Sundays. And the second thing going against them is in being the favorite to win their division they will no longer be flying under the radar. SoonerBS had one of the most interesting articles in his website that I've seen this year on the percentages of teams who won 3 or more or lost 3 or more games than they did the year before (like Ole Miss). And then what they did the next year. Here's a cut and paste. Most of the info that I'm talking about is down towards the bottom. But the whole article is interesting in pertaining to betting these teams.
Analyzing Numbers
August 6, 2009
By Jim Kruger
VegasInsider.com
Picking Winners in College Football
Before any sports season starts that I am going to be betting on, I try to find as many angles as I can from any and all sources that I believe can give me an advantage in betting on the team that will cover the spread. Some handicappers look at the fundamentals of a team such as how a team blocks and tackles, stops the run, etc. Others look at situational aspects such as how a team, any team, does after a win as a road underdog and now they are favored. Others look at specific team trends, such as the bad ATS (against the spread) record Fresno State has had after a loss.
The bottom line is that it really doesn’t matter how one handicaps, all that matters is whether you are cashing tickets. I like to find some high level filtering approaches that help me put teams in early categories of “play on” or “play against”. Naturally, as a season transpires, teams can move from one category to the other.
In some sports, there is credibility in the premise if you can pick who is going to win the game straight-up, you will have a winning year betting. In college football last season, including bowl games, the team with the most points at the end of the game had a 565-202 record against the spread. Of course you must remember that any underdog that won a game outright obviously covered the number in that game. College football underdogs last season won games straight-up 23.1% of the time.
Last season there were 30 teams that covered the spread at a rate of more than 60% for the season including post-season play. Only five of those 30 teams, 16.7%, had a straight-up losing record. Two squads clocked in at .500 records, both 6-6 for the year. The combined SU record of these 30 teams was 275-128, 68.2%. Collectively, they beat the number 67.8% of the time, 257-122.
If teams with winning records do such a good job in beating the oddsmaker's line, do losing teams have a strong tendency to have a poor ATS mark? To quote the former governor of Alaska, “you betcha!”
Teams that finished with a below 40% ATS record for the 2008 campaign in college football only won outright 143 times out of 382 games, a 37.4% frequency. The rate that you cashed a ticket betting on these teams was even lower, a 30.2% ATS record. Of the 31 teams that fall into the “below 40% ATS category”, only 7 had winning records with one coming in with a .500 slate.
So, just being able to pick which team will win a game outright should help you increase your winning percentage betting on college football. As noted above, teams with winning records have a better shot at having a winning ATS season. And, just the opposite is true with losing teams dropping more games against the spread than they win. It would be advantageous if we could determine what a team’s final record will be in 2009. Is there a method to project what a teams’ won-loss record will be?
Obviously, one can put many, many hours into studying a team and evaluating their schedule to try to determine what their final record might be before the season kicks-off. This is very time consuming. There is a short-cut to help determine whether a team will win more or fewer games this season compared to their SU record last year.
First, note which teams’ won-loss record improved or worsened by three games or more from the season before. Looking at how teams did in 2008 compared to 2007, 44 of the 120 FBS schools won-loss records varied by three or more games between the two seasons. Starting with the 2003 season and marking each season’s record, there were some very interesting results.
If a team won three or less fewer games from the previous season, there is a very strong trend that they will improve their record the next season. Actual numbers show these teams that dropped down three or more wins from the previous season have the same or a better record 85.1% of the time in the coming season. Over the past four years, this has happened 63 out of 74 times. In this scenario, only 11 teams out of 74 have had a worse record the following year. Some of the teams that suffered a three game or more drop in wins last year are Tennessee, Michigan, and Central Florida.
On the flip side of the equation, when a team improves by three or more total straight-up wins from one season to the next, there is a trend definitely worth noting regarding how their won-loss record will be this year. After a three or more jump in the number of seasonal wins from the previous year, teams fail to improve their win total 80.3% of the time in the following campaign. Eighty-one teams have had a three game or more improvement since 2003, but only 16 of them had a better record the next year after such an improvement. Three of the 24 teams that had such a jump in 2008 and could fall in season wins this year from the previous season are Rice, Minnesota, and Ball State.
The stats and trends I have mentioned are more tools one can use in handicapping college football. The method of looking at the differential in straight-up wins from one season to the next can be beneficial for bettors who like to place wagers on a team’s season wins number. No matter how you do it, having a road map at the beginning of a season on how you believe every team will perform for the year is beneficial to building your bankroll.
I like the under in the BYU/OU game. I liked it a lot more when it first came out at 75 for about a minute. Unfortunatly I wasn't there to catch that number. This is one of those rare times where i like the under, even with two heisman caliber QB's on opposing sides. The fact of the matter is between these two teams 9 OL starters were lost. But the defensive lines are still strong. So I can see a little bit of a slow start for this game. Bottom line is can Max Hall and this new offensive line and young WR's score 21 points or more against a top 5 defense, and can OU score 48 points or more with a new OL and WR's? That's what your looking at here to get the game over the total.
