Georgia (+6) over OSU **
I'm starting to see this line creep down a little so I went ahead and got it at +6. I would like to have seen a 7, but I think this number is history. I explained earlier in my thread why I like Georgia. One simple reason is the obvious. We have a proven powerhouse with Georgia who had a better record than OSU in 2008 with more starters coming back than OSU in 2009. Will the absence of Stafford and Moreno hurt Georgia? Yes. Will the absence of Pettigrew (possibly the best TE in the country last season) and Bowman hurt the OSU passing game? I would be surprised if it didn't. What it comes down to for me is the sum of each teams parts. And with the slate VHT players that Richt has recruited from his consistent top 10 classes, that Georgia can plug in easier than OSU..
Where I think they are going to be much stronger is on defense. 2008 was a very rare year where Richt had a defense that didn't perform up to his standards. Although allowing 320 yards per game was still very good. And a lot of teams would give their left nut to be that good. OSU probably for one, who gave up 410 ypg on defense. The thing that makes me think Georgia is a possible SEC/National title contender is the high amount of injuries this team suffered last season to some key players on both sides of the ball. They now have 15 starters returning, including many of those injured players. Remember, this team was rated preseason number one at the beginning of last season. With good reason. There is a lot of talent on this team who this season, as opposed to last season, is flying much more under the radar in 2009. Always a good thing in my opinion. Especially for covering these kinds of spreads where they are the rare dog. OSU on the other hand is new to this highly ranked game. They are number #7 in the preseason poll. Their highest ever that I can remember. And in Gundy's fifth season have still never covered when favored over a ranked team. Richt is 30-4 SU in true road games.
What this game comes down to is the superior offensive and defensive lines of Georgia vs the skill players of OSU. Georgia owns the lines in this game. OSU owns the skill players, although i think there are some VHT players on the Georgia side who I feel are going to emerge in this game. The majority of the time I'm going to side with the team with the better defense getting points. And although OSU now has Bill Young as their DC. One of the best DC's in the country, I don't think he's going to have them playing like Bama right out of the gate. But OSU's defense will be improved this year. Which keeps me from making this a bigger play. But I do think that Zac Robinson is going to miss his TE Pettigrew. Not only a great outlet receiver for Robinson, but he was also a good blocker. I also think that Bowman was a top notch receiver for OSU last season. And an excellent go to receiver for Robinson along with Dez Bryant. He's now gone and Robinson really doesn't have a great second target to take Bryant's spot. With a great run game, OSU has the potential to be as good offensively as last season. But I'm not sure they are going to come out from the beginning and be as potent as they were last year without these key playmakers who are now playing in the NFL. So the Pokes have lost their share of players too. What I think it's going to result in is a little lower scoring game than what is anticipated. And if Georgia can keep OSU out of the 30's here I think they have a good chance to win this game outright. At any rate, a TD is a lot of points to be giving to a proven SEC power team.
