G.S. Warriors Thread

[Inittowinit]

I do better with my analysis when Im around my coworkers and when Im working the games. With these longer breaks, I dont get that opportunity so take my analysis with a grain of salt.

The thing Ive gathered after watching the Toronto game was that Warriors moved at an incredible pace and shot lights out. The Raptors did not try to slow down the Warriors with size, rather went speed and shooters and tried to keep up with them. In other words, the Warriors scored 126 points because:
- Warriors shot above 50%
- Warriors moving at an incredible pace up and down the court
- Raptors moving the ball at a fast pace and tried to keep up with Warriors
- Raptors not inserting size in their lineups/matchup keeping the pace high.

I could be wrong, but Ill take my chances that Thunder do not let the above 4 factors set in. OKC is 2nd in the NBA in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (Warriors 1st).

Im locking it in now and taking my chances knowing that if it loses, I believe I played the smart bet.

1/5
Warriors Team Total Under 110 1.1units to win 1 unit
OKC money line +135 1 unit to win 1.35 units

Still wanting to do Klay prop but waiting.

 

[boss415]

Big dubs fan and was a season ticket holder in 2006. Love your input and i am on okc tonight +3. Line indicates a tough one for warriors. Bol tonight and thanks again

 

[Inittowinit]

Thanks Boss. Im a big fan too, hoping we win it all this year.

I could be an action junkie, but im doing this JUST FOR FUN betting really small. Not recommending you tail this unless your an action junkie, IM ONLY doing this because I have tomorrow off and wanting to watch the game recorded with a beer from couch. Not going to check this thread or hear what happend till I watch the game tomorrow on my couch. But I think Warriors start their hot shooting first half and reality of a good defensive team catchs up second half.
Betting quarter of a unit for fun Warriors 1st half -1.5
then a quarter of a unit on OKC +1 3rd q
quarter of a unit on OKC +.5 4th q
Not recomending this as anything other than fun to watch the game. My plays for today are

1/5
Warriors Team Total Under 110 1.1units to win 1unit
Okc Moneyline +135 1unit to win 1.35
Klay Thompson over 21.5 points 1.1units to win 1unit
(i bit the prop. I think one of the two Curry over 25.5 points or Klay over 21.5 points hit, so if you dont like my klay prop, you could use your judgement and do Curry, I just think Klay is due. Only reason Im hesistant is because hes still not getting to the free throw line which is what he needs to do regularly. But f-it, Ill take the bate. )

Good luck all, Ill be back to review my notes tomorrow.

 

[eggshot]

Still riding my boys though! GSW-2.5!

 

[Inittowinit]

1/7

Ive been sucking. I hate proposing to fade my Warriors. BUT this time I think I have it right. Granted ive said this for the past two games, but I think the size of Hibbert and West neutrilize the Warriors. Im taking Pacers +11.5 and Team total over 95.5.

Pacers for 2 units
Over team total for 1.

 

[Biz]

I was on Indiana too, and losing Hibbert early completely changed the complexion of the game. Great pick regardless.

 

[BigHurt007]

Klay went off
He wanted to make you pay for not taking his point prop

 

[Inittowinit]

1/9

Hi All,

Ive been sucking with my picks since my hot start so Im going to not post my plays. Im too worried about losing other people money, when I get on a hot streak again Ill post my picks too. For now, Ill just put my notes and what Im seeing and hearing.

So, Bogut played his first game, shockingly, he played more minutes than what Kerr told our studio. THey didnt release to the stations around here that he was going to play. In fact, their Exec St Jean said it was going to be couple more weeks and they were not going to rush him, and he said this day before he played. Im not sure if St Jean blatently lied to our studio or Bogut simply told them he was ready day of. In any case, morning of, Kerr told our studio (I personally didnt hear) that Bogut was playing and would only play a few minutes. He ended up playing 15 which is more than it sounds. Considering their exec thought he'd need couple more weeks.

On to Warriors play. Dam, I cant believe ive been fading them. Theyve been shooting lights out. I keep thinking Warriors are going to slow down, but theyre not. Jump shooting teams are streaky teams and you would think at some point it would slow down. THe reason Warriors arent slowing down is because of this depth. Their bench alone can beat a lot of teams starters. Especially now that Bogut and Lee are healthy, they are scary.

Speights - Im especially impressed with Speights. I think all of us are waiting for him to go back to being a bench player but his perimeter shot is on point. ANYTIME hes getting the ball around the key, hes hitting that jump shot. His defense is still a bit sketchy. Hes a bad rebounder but decent and fights hard defensivly.

Bogut- looked slow in his first game back, which makes me think this should lead the Warriors scoring pace to slow down, because they run the offense through him. Well, they did before his injury. At this point, when hes in the pace will slow down.

Klay- I mentioned in order for him to get over that 22 point prop bet is he NEEDS to get to the foul line. He hadnt been doing so, and now his last two games he finally has. I can see him going on a high scoring streak for the next couple games now. Everythings going well for him EXCEPT his tic tac fouls which he needs to control

STeph Curry- very intersting trend this year. IVe noticed the games IVe been working his 3 point shot has not been on. Now this last week looks like its gotten better but there was a month stretch where hes hit 3 or lower a game. Its interesting to note because this is his first year as a full time PG defender. I think hes trying to show the world hes a complete player where hes a shut down defender and an elite passer. This maybe effecting his shot. Im going to see how he shoots the 3ball the next couple games, but a prop to look at is to ride his assist + rebound prop over and scoring under.

Thats the only notes I have for now. Hopefully this helps. Im interested to hear what you all play or anything you like. Id like this thread to be all Warriors info, plays, etc from everyone. I maybe back if I have anything else to add today.

 

[sunshine11]

Cleveland +12

 

[BigHurt007]

Thanks for your insights innit, hope you get back on track shortly
Out of curiousity, have you heard any "inside" opinions re: Silver's stance on legalizing betting?

 

[boss415]

I like not posting plays if you arent feeling it. I was running hot and posting and as soon as things flattened out i didnt want anybody with me until i got straightened out. As far as the dubs go we should Not fade this team as we know how good they really are. I took under against the pacers which was a bad call since the total jumped a full point right before game. I say its on em or no play for me. Good luck my fellows dubs fan!

 

[Inittowinit]

I like not posting plays if you arent feeling it. I was running hot and posting and as soon as things flattened out i didnt want anybody with me until i got straightened out. As far as the dubs go we should Not fade this team as we know how good they really are. I took under against the pacers which was a bad call since the total jumped a full point right before game. I say its on em or no play for me. Good luck my fellows dubs fan!

Boss, yeah im with you. I shouldnt be posting leans or if i dont have a good play. Seems like I was posting just for action. Ill only post if I feel I have a good read or I hear something.

 

[Inittowinit]

Thanks for your insights innit, hope you get back on track shortly
Out of curiousity, have you heard any "inside" opinions re: Silver's stance on legalizing betting?

Hey Bighurt,

No I havent heard anything at my work or with any of the interviews weve done, BUT on a local radio station here I did hear Silver do an interview about the subject. He was mentioning how he was for legalizing betting because of it bringing more attraction to the average fan. He mentioned how big betting on Soccer overseas was and how it should draw the novice fan to the sport. But my work hasnt said anything about it.

 

[jamobeatz]

My CLE line moved to 13.5? Any reason why?

 

[sunshine11]

Because they stink. Lol. I stick with my system. Good line.

 

[Biz]

I'm on Cleveland +13. Played Indiana +12 the other night, Hibbert goes out early or that game might have been different.

I love my Dubs, live 10 minutes from Oracle, but a bet is a bet. I'm on Cavs and the Under tonight. Couple of my system plays point to Cavs and the referee tonight is an Unders ref. Been very strong to the under so far this year.

 

[DChosta]

Thanks for your thoughts last night inittowinit, ended up hitting the Klay Thompson O21.5 pts prop. He and Curry seem to set up scoring in the pace in the game early and I'm typically seeing Thompson with about 8-9 pts in the first quarter alone. Like you said, the key to getting his points over really seems rely on his ability to get to the FT line. Your read on Curry is also superb in that he is demonstrating his "do-it-all" approach as he racked up similar numbers to Klay Thompson + 10 ASSISTS and really getting the ball distributed to the RIGHT PLAYERS at the RIGHT TIME. Although I love my Lakers/Clippers... watching this Warriors team play is just plain FUN. They really are unselfish, extremely deep, and are my favorite to take it all this season.

 

[Inittowinit]

Glad you won DChosta. Ironically, the one day I dont post my plays, I went 2-0. Funny how that happens. I ended up playing the Klay over points and Steph under 3.5 3s.

For today, not sure what Im playing. Even though its a road game, Im still working in the studio for pre and post game stuff. Ill post my plays close to game time.
Interesting things to note, Warriors shoot significantly lower on the road than home. I believe its like 8-10 points lower and percentage is signicantly lower. In addition, the Jazz defense has played better in recent and if not for their sloppy turnovers, theyd given up less.

Warriors obviously have one of the best if not, the best defense and shoot lower on the road. Im sure the high altitude and time off should affect a jump shooting team like the Warriors as well. In addition, Jazz have trouble scoring and their PF has a nagging injury.

Im leaning Under every which way. Under 1st Half, Under game, Under Warriors team total, Under Jazz. Not putting anything through yet. Hoping to get some others insight here and at work. What do you all think?

Be back by game time.

 

[DChosta]

I personally went with Warriors -7 for tonight but I think that your under is not a bad bet either. Altitude and travel should affect the Warriors shooting tonight but the defense has also been stepping up with guys coming back from injury and bench players are getting chances to play important minutes in the game. It will be interesting to see how the Warriors do outside of Oracle again but I think it's GSW/Under or nothing for me. Any looks at any player props?

 

[Inittowinit]

Playing the unders for 1 unit.

2 unit play curry under 13.5 assts and rebds

Ill explain later