G.S. Warriors Thread

[Inittowinit]

Another winner last night.

Oracle was rocking last night. Arguably the loudest NBA stadium. Some key notes Im going to factor into tuesdays game.
-Curry is really playing unselfishly. You can just see that he will pass up opportunities to look for that pass to get someone else going. Risky right now playing any point props on him over.
- Klay is really playing selfishly. He is forcing shots and its clear he is wanting to be their high scorer nightly. Ill be looking at playing his points props over Tuesday.
- Draymond Green is going back to his role last year of being the shut down defender. He didnt take many shots and was often passing his open looks. I think with Lee back, hes seeing ALLL the depth in scoring options Warriors have and hes taking the back seat.

Anyhow,
8-2 +6.75units

 

[BigHurt007]

At this point, I'm thinking they are a fade with the lines they are getting

 

[Inittowinit]

Unfortunatly, not going to do an indepth write up for tonites game. Im having to work the Sharks NHL game and not Warriors tonite. As far as my quick thoughts. Obviously no way Warriors lose this game. But, same scenario as Timberwolves game, how can you cap a 18-20 point spread. I would lean that Warriors cover that. But not playing it. Couple things Im going to look at are the Over and Klay Thompson over in points. I would normally say the Klay over in points Im playing based off my notes, however a coworker of mine mentioned that he doesnt score as much when playing bad teams. He will shoot more against good competition. Im going to look at his games and see if that is accurate.

 

[DChosta]

Thanks for dropping in with yours thoughts about tonight's game. Seems like you have a pretty fun job up there in the Bay Area being so close to some of those sports teams.

 

[Inittowinit]

Thanks for dropping in with yours thoughts about tonight's game. Seems like you have a pretty fun job up there in the Bay Area being so close to some of those sports teams.

Thanks DChosta, its really fun, unfortunatly doesnt pay well. Without divulging to much about my position, I work in Productions. Its part time, but its cool that I get to be at some games and obviously get exposed to the team on a closer basis. Even get to meet, talk and hang out with the players once in a while.

In regards to my play for today

12/30
Going to play Warriors Team Total over 114. I mentioned Warriors depth. THey have tons of depth and I actually believe warriors bench (Lee, Ezeli, Iggy, Speights, Livingston) can beat the Sixers and score at will. Warriors like to put on a show at home too which should help the scoring. Im playing this for 2units. I dont feel comfortable with the Klay over in points any longer because Im still not seeing him get to the line. Hes taking his shots and not passing, but Id like to see him get to the line before I start playing his points over. Ill be watching tonites game tomorrow and see how he does for the next propbet.

12/30
Warriors Team Total Over 114 2.2Units to win 2 Unit
Average bet is 1 unit ($100 is my 1Unit). 3 Units would be a max play

 

[BigHurt007]

Thought I saw Ezeli was a scratch
Took 76rs+19
Good luck on your over, seems exceedingly high to me but what do I know?

 

[DChosta]

1 thing to love about betting overs, nice to cross the finish the line before the game is finished and not worry about a backdoor. GSW putting on another shooting clinic in a blowout at home. Nice call once again inittowinit, truly invaluable work you're doing pal! Have a happy New Year and I wish you an even better year than the one before. Sorry the Sharks game wasn't as fun to watch unfortunately.

Thankyou)(&

 

[RussellPeters]

Thanks DChosta, its really fun, unfortunatly doesnt pay well. Without divulging to much about my position, I work in Productions. Its part time, but its cool that I get to be at some games and obviously get exposed to the team on a closer basis. Even get to meet, talk and hang out with the players once in a while.

In regards to my play for today

12/30
Going to play Warriors Team Total over 114. I mentioned Warriors depth. THey have tons of depth and I actually believe warriors bench (Lee, Ezeli, Iggy, Speights, Livingston) can beat the Sixers and score at will. Warriors like to put on a show at home too which should help the scoring. Im playing this for 2units. I dont feel comfortable with the Klay over in points any longer because Im still not seeing him get to the line. Hes taking his shots and not passing, but Id like to see him get to the line before I start playing his points over. Ill be watching tonites game tomorrow and see how he does for the next propbet.

12/30
Warriors Team Total Over 114 2.2Units to win 2 Unit
Average bet is 1 unit ($100 is my 1Unit). 3 Units would be a max play

Thanks for another easy winner with over 6 minutes still left to play. Great call man!

 

[Inittowinit]

Thanks all for the kind words. I hope you guys tailing are also noticing the units Im playing. My average bets are 1 unit, however yesterdays was bigger at 2. Obviously I feel stronger about those more. I may have a 3 unit game a couple times in the season. On a different note, Yesterdays SHarks game was a mess. Sharks offense looks really unsynced. Im going to watch yesterdays Warrior game today at some point when I start my other job. From the box score I watched, Im glad I layed off that Klay prop bet. I saw he had 14 points at the half and then nothing second half. Aside from that, looks like my thoughts were pretty dead on. Kerr took his starters out in the 4th and the bench tacked on to the already large lead.

BigHurt, I know you mentioned fading Warriors for a while with the inflated lines, I think opposite. Because of their depth and talented bench, I think they can cover these big spreads against weak competition. Its the 7-10 point spreads against the above average teams that will be tough.

Ill be working the next game on Friday so Ill have some notes on the next matchup then. Things Ill be looking at, Klay points over and possibly a defensive matchup with the Raptors. Hopefully Ezellis sprained ankle gets better by then.

9-2 +8.75 units.

 

[Green17]

"WinIt":
Thanks once again for all of your efforts and letting us at the RX be a part of it.
Appreciate it.

 

[Inittowinit]

1/2

Couple quick notes before I come back to post my play in a couple hours. After two blowout games against bad competition, Warriors now face the Eastern Conferences best team. Both Coach Kerr and Green were stating this will be a playoff type game for them. The thing that makes this interesting is how the Raptors current road trip, they faced STRONG competition and played exceptionally well against these teams. They lost to Chicago (still put up 120 points), beat Denver, Beat La Clip, and lost in OT to Portland. Pretty impressive with this being on the road and not having one of their best scorers in DeRozan. On a different note, Warriors played cupcake teams in Twolves and the Sixers on their homestand.

Another note, Lees minute restiction has been removed. Im curious how the Warriors will spell Speights. The Raptors have lots of size. Their Center is 7 foot and their 2 forwards are 6"9. Lee will be coming off the bench, but I think no matter who he is on, he will be at a mismatch. I think this is a bad matchup for the Warriors because of the Raptors size. Draymond Green is playing PF in a SF body.

My early lean is going to be Raptors + the points or Raptors team total over. Because of the previous games they played I think the Raptors may start strong and Warriors play catch up. Im going to be looking for reasons to NOT play them. Im heading to the studio for a couple hours and Ill post my play from there. The Warriors radio host will be in the studio same time I am, hopefully I dont get in trouble for asking him his thoughts and prediction. He was the one that told my coworker about the Clippers going to beat the Warriors on Christmas.

Anyone else capping this game, Id like to hear your thoughts on this. Leaning Raptors and Raptors TT over. NO play yet.

 

[BigBoyBalochka]

Thoughts ont he total.... Thanks in advance

bbb

 

[DChosta]

Hey there inittowinit, although I'm not keyed in on the totals. I believe that the Raptors +4.5/5 is rather attractive play for the night as I believe they will be able to keep up the scoring pace with Warriors in a big statement game. Even without Derozan, the Raptors have played the west tough and as you stated earlier, with David Lee expected to play more minutes, his size mismatch will be key factor in Raptors getting board and more opportunities in the paint. Gl with your play.

 

[Inittowinit]

Im typing from wkrk so i dont have time to give a full write up. Unfortunatly got sent on a project so didnt talk to the unnamed play by play guy.

Gonna play raptors 1st quaeter at +1.5. Simply bc theyve been playing good c9mpetition and warriors havnt. Thinking they come out strong. Also playing valecionas over 22.5 points and rebouds. Raptors would be foolish to not give him the ball with the size difference.

Bbillyboy, i lean under now instead of over. Warriors will slow it down with lee amd klay and curry have yet to come out and shoot lights out for a while.

1/2
Raptors 1stq +1.5 1.1units to win 1 unit
Valancious over 22.5 poijts and rebounds 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

 

[DChosta]

Wow that was a weird game as the Raptors kept trying to trade shots with the Warriors with GS going on big runs time to time. I did not have the pts + rebs but I did take Valuncias Over 13.5 points, despite going 3-4 for 8 in the first quarter, I thought both props would be in good shape but as the Warriors got a big lead, the Raptors went to their shooters as I believe they were not happy with Valuncias's lack of defense. Warriors looking like world-beaters right now though. Get them next time pal.

 

[Biz]

Went to the game tonight and watched my under bet go up in flames. Didn't care at all.

Just a really fun game to watch, high scoring and a lot of energy. My nephew took me, nice seats and he told me every game he's been to this year is a Dub cover and over. That will be my new system play.

Innit,
Enjoy your write-ups, great insights.

 

[Inittowinit]

Thats awesome you got to go to the game Biz. I think what makes this team so exciting this year is how much they pass as well too. These guys love to get their teammates involved and put on a show for the crowd. Youll notice, when the Warriors are up with a comfortable lead, they will start show boating. Curry will pull the behind the back shots, shoot from well beyond the arch without looking. Ridiculous stuff to get the crowd going louder.

Some of the Warriors execs were on our local station talking about Westbrook. Some still talk about Westbrook as one of the top PGs in the West, but the thing lacking is game management. You will see Curry dish the ball when he sees a teammate with the hot hand, shoot the three when the team needs it. Point being, he will provide for the team based on the situation. Contrary, Westbrook lacks this. He has the mentality that he can take over a game when needed, so he hesitates to pass, which is the struggle for them with Durant. The comparison was brought up, Durant and Westbrook with Garnett and Marbury back in the day.

On to tonights notes. Man, Warriors put on a show against the Easts best and I was impressed. My analysis was waayyyyy off. Im upset that Raptors coach took Valuciounius sooo quickly. He had 8 points in the first 11 minutes and never really got brought back in. Im going to try to be more selective with my picks. Looking at tonites matchup, its hard to go against Warriors or the Over. Warriors shooting at high pace, lights out. The key to the Warriors high scoring this year is NOT because of Curry or Klay. Ive said it before, its because of their depth. They have soooo much talent on their bench. so the key to tonite hitting over is the bench keeping up their good streak. My initial thoughts are Warriors and under. I think Kerr knows Warriors can outscore their opponnent and now hes wanting to see them beat their opponent defensivly. This is just a hunch though. I think tonites game Curry and Klay will get 25+ each with the outside game. But, I see everyone else (Lee, Speights, Green, Livingston, Iggy) struggling against the length and strength of Adams, Perkins and Ibaka. If you recall the last game they played, before Durant sprained his ankle OKC was controlling the game and winning. Once Durant came out, they still put a fight till (if I recall) the last minute of the game.

Im leaning and probably playing Thunder moneyline, Game Under, Klay over in points.

Requested tonite off because of another engagment so I wont be in studio to hear anything but hopefully post my plays well before gametime.

 

[BigHurt007]

Man you are supposed to be the Warriors homer around here! Now fading em two games in a row?
Following the line move and taking OKC ML as well
Really see a revenge factor here after Slim Reaper got hurt last time these two met

 

[thesandman1]

It's a plus having a homer who bets against his team when it's the right thing to do. Thanks for posting.

 

[BigHurt007]

Agreed
Wasn't making a jab at all