On my phone typing. Jazz are an above average rebounxing team and with lee and bogut bacck reduces curry staying back for the boards.i dont see him getting more than 2 brds. For the assists, he likes to show off more when going against the premier pgs in the league. Also, i see them moving slower trying to set up bogut amd lee up more
Won my prop bet yesterday but still on a cold streak so proceed with caution.
Someone earlier in this thread mentioned month ago to fade warriors because of inflated lines. I think that begins now.
Playing
Heat +15.5 to win 1.5 units
Under 202 to win 1unit
Warriors under 49 3rd qt (bogut doesnt start and he starts 3rd quarter plays stong defense) to win 1 unit
Curry over 24.5 points to win 1 unit.
Someone earlier in this thread mentioned month ago to fade warriors because of inflated lines. I think that begins now.
Playing
Heat +15.5 to win 1.5 units
Under 202 to win 1unit
Warriors under 49 3rd qt (bogut doesnt start and he starts 3rd quarter plays stong defense) to win 1 unit
Curry over 24.5 points to win 1 unit.
Too many teams have been trying to run with warriors and keep pace with them. That does NOT work. I think Heat (especially now without Wade) slow things down and play STRONG defense and shoot high percentage shots.
One of the execs here were talking about Heat playing this Hassan guy thats unknown and plays rewally well and could cause a bad matchup for anyone with Warriors. We'll see how this plays out.
One of the execs here were talking about Heat playing this Hassan guy thats unknown and plays rewally well and could cause a bad matchup for anyone with Warriors. We'll see how this plays out.
Interesting line tonight as GSW down to -1 from 2.5, Bogut and Iguoudala declared out for tonight vs OKC Thunder. Should be in for a good one now as Thunder will be hungry to avenge their losses to the Warriors this season and dropping last night's game to the Rockets. Now that Dion Waiters is in OKC, I wonder how he effective he will be tonight against the Warriors. Eager to hear your thoughts on tonight's game inittowinit.
I hate doing this, but Im putting my side play in early. I think the line will go back towards OKC so grabbing it now. I looked at my local and saw +135 and put 1 unit on it immidietly. Now when I look, its down to -105.
In any case Im playing OKC moneyline.
Heres what I think. I think this is the correct time to fad the Warriors against the line for the rest of the month. Theyll still win majority of the games but were going to get some inflated lines. For this evenings game. Warriors are riding with TONS of confidence. In my opinion, over confident. Take a look at their wins since their loss to the clippers on xmas:
Minnisota (5-24) 110-97
Phili (4-26) 126-86
Toronto (were already on a losing streak 24-9) 126-105
OKC ( skip this for now ill get back to this)
Indiana (14-23) 117-102
Cleveland (without lebron and on a losing streak as well) 112-94
Utah (13-26) 116-105
Miami (17-22)
Point being, Warriors have dominated against some bad teams. NOW they face an Extremely hungry OKC team who got humiliated in Goldenstate. I expect OKC to be laser focused today. Now lets talk about Bogut and Iggy out. (both not hurt just resting and declared out) I have mentioned time and time again the warriors success is due to their depth. After Klay and Curry, the most important players to the Warriors SUPRISINGLY are Bogut and Iggy. Bogut for obvious reasons. He runs the plays in the high post, rim defender, etc. But Iggy is HUGE for the warriors. he gets NO praise because hes on the second team, but little known fact, according to a coworker of mine, hes at the top in the league with his + - team points when hes on the court. Ive been trying to look up that stat but cant see where its located. So ill take his word for it. He is very important to the team chemistry. Above average defender and brings energy off the bench.
If anyone knows where I can find the + - stat, id love to see that by the way.
In any case, Im going to come back with props later, but for now locked in OKC moneyline for 2 units
In any case Im playing OKC moneyline.
Heres what I think. I think this is the correct time to fad the Warriors against the line for the rest of the month. Theyll still win majority of the games but were going to get some inflated lines. For this evenings game. Warriors are riding with TONS of confidence. In my opinion, over confident. Take a look at their wins since their loss to the clippers on xmas:
Minnisota (5-24) 110-97
Phili (4-26) 126-86
Toronto (were already on a losing streak 24-9) 126-105
OKC ( skip this for now ill get back to this)
Indiana (14-23) 117-102
Cleveland (without lebron and on a losing streak as well) 112-94
Utah (13-26) 116-105
Miami (17-22)
Point being, Warriors have dominated against some bad teams. NOW they face an Extremely hungry OKC team who got humiliated in Goldenstate. I expect OKC to be laser focused today. Now lets talk about Bogut and Iggy out. (both not hurt just resting and declared out) I have mentioned time and time again the warriors success is due to their depth. After Klay and Curry, the most important players to the Warriors SUPRISINGLY are Bogut and Iggy. Bogut for obvious reasons. He runs the plays in the high post, rim defender, etc. But Iggy is HUGE for the warriors. he gets NO praise because hes on the second team, but little known fact, according to a coworker of mine, hes at the top in the league with his + - team points when hes on the court. Ive been trying to look up that stat but cant see where its located. So ill take his word for it. He is very important to the team chemistry. Above average defender and brings energy off the bench.
If anyone knows where I can find the + - stat, id love to see that by the way.
In any case, Im going to come back with props later, but for now locked in OKC moneyline for 2 units
A bit of an older article but it somewhat references your points on Iggy's contribution to the efficiency of the Warriors.
http://hoopshabit.com/2014/09/04/andre-iguodala-impactful-player-nba/
Excerpts:
"During the 2013-14 season, the Warriors saw a massive transformation in their defense. They went from being the No. 14 defense in the NBA to being the No. 4 team in basketball in terms of defensive rating (105.5 to 102.6). They allowed the 10th-fewest points (99.5), in large part because of their pace (No. 6 in the NBA). What changed from that 2012-13 roster to last season? Aside from Andrew Bogut playing almost 1,000 more minutes, the only significant change was the arrival of Iguodala.
According to basketball-reference.com, the 2013-14 regular season marked the first time in Iguodala’s career that he had a double-digit affect while he was on the court (per 100 possessions). In fact, over the previous five seasons, he’s gone from a minus-4.7 in 2009-10 with the Philadelphia 76ers to a remarkable plus-13.8 last season with the Warriors.
If that wasn’t impressive enough, Iguodala’s regular season net on/off court rating was a remarkable plus-17.7, which according to 82games.com, was the best in the league for anyone who appeared in at least 40 percent of their team’s minutes. In quite the damning stat for the Warriors bench, the next two highest were Stephen Curry (plus-17.4) and Klay Thompson (plus-14.9).
Iguodala’s always been lauded for his defense, although last season was the first time he was named to the NBA’s All-Defensive First Team (with one second team in 2010-11)."
"To use a car analogy, the body and the engine are the two things that are going to get the most attention. They’re the sexy parts of the car, if you will. Thompson and Curry are those parts of the Warriors. When you watch or when you check out the basic stats, they’re the ones that stick out.
Iguodala is like the oil. Replace him with a lesser quality oil, and you still have a car that will run — but it’s likely to be less efficient than it once was. With the proper high-performance oil, your car will run at peak performance. Put in the cheap stuff and you’re going to get a lot less than that."
The line appears to have flipped and now OKC is favored in this matchup.
http://hoopshabit.com/2014/09/04/andre-iguodala-impactful-player-nba/
Excerpts:
"During the 2013-14 season, the Warriors saw a massive transformation in their defense. They went from being the No. 14 defense in the NBA to being the No. 4 team in basketball in terms of defensive rating (105.5 to 102.6). They allowed the 10th-fewest points (99.5), in large part because of their pace (No. 6 in the NBA). What changed from that 2012-13 roster to last season? Aside from Andrew Bogut playing almost 1,000 more minutes, the only significant change was the arrival of Iguodala.
According to basketball-reference.com, the 2013-14 regular season marked the first time in Iguodala’s career that he had a double-digit affect while he was on the court (per 100 possessions). In fact, over the previous five seasons, he’s gone from a minus-4.7 in 2009-10 with the Philadelphia 76ers to a remarkable plus-13.8 last season with the Warriors.
If that wasn’t impressive enough, Iguodala’s regular season net on/off court rating was a remarkable plus-17.7, which according to 82games.com, was the best in the league for anyone who appeared in at least 40 percent of their team’s minutes. In quite the damning stat for the Warriors bench, the next two highest were Stephen Curry (plus-17.4) and Klay Thompson (plus-14.9).
Iguodala’s always been lauded for his defense, although last season was the first time he was named to the NBA’s All-Defensive First Team (with one second team in 2010-11)."
"To use a car analogy, the body and the engine are the two things that are going to get the most attention. They’re the sexy parts of the car, if you will. Thompson and Curry are those parts of the Warriors. When you watch or when you check out the basic stats, they’re the ones that stick out.
Iguodala is like the oil. Replace him with a lesser quality oil, and you still have a car that will run — but it’s likely to be less efficient than it once was. With the proper high-performance oil, your car will run at peak performance. Put in the cheap stuff and you’re going to get a lot less than that."
The line appears to have flipped and now OKC is favored in this matchup.
Not liking anything else much when looking at my props. Klay has been on a shooting slump and Warriors have been loving the play of Holliday lately. I think with Barbosa, Barnes, Holiday and Livingston in the rotation, Warriors spell Klay a bit more with him having to deal with Harden in a few days.
Plays for 1/16
OKC +135 2 units to win 2.7 units
Klay under 21.5 to win 1 unit
may have a play at half
Plays for 1/16
OKC +135 2 units to win 2.7 units
Klay under 21.5 to win 1 unit
may have a play at half
Pretty busy today. Im working the Sharks game today so I wont have time to ask around and heading out right now as we speak. I mentioned yesterday that Im going to fade the Warriors ATS for the next couple games or so. I also noticed in yetsterdays game, everyones shots didnt seem that great. Barnes made some 3s but he ALWAYS hits those ones from the side. Not sure why the defender keeps him out there uncovered. Klay looked good. Aside from those two, nothing seemed great. Also, Curry seems to struggle everytime against Beverely. Im going to hammer the under team total for Warriors.
Locking in 1/17
Warriors team total under 106 to win 2 units
Rockets -2 to win 1 unit
Locking in 1/17
Warriors team total under 106 to win 2 units
Rockets -2 to win 1 unit
