Init-I always appreciate your insight and take time to read your post but I've completely stopped fading this Warriors team (except against OKC cause Bogut and Iggy were out). I know that they have been a tear and are bound to regress which is why you have been taking the other teams but this team plays at a ridiculous level and have completely bought into Kerr (i'm sure you know this more than me). Eventually they will have a few games where they struggle but that will likely be later on this road trip or post-All star break.
From now on, I will either tail on your props or bet on the Warriors because betting against this team is futile. Obviously there will be some situations to look at as the season goes on so always enjoy reading your thoughts but I expect this team to finish top of the West.
From now on, I will either tail on your props or bet on the Warriors because betting against this team is futile. Obviously there will be some situations to look at as the season goes on so always enjoy reading your thoughts but I expect this team to finish top of the West.
1/19
Well I was way off on the Rockets game. Funny thing, on my very first post this season I said I would bet Warriors after every loss because I believe theyre chemistry would get them back on track. They lose to OKC and I fade them. lol. I need to stick to my guns and hunches.
Onto todays game. Im sticking to my guns. Im playing Denver ATS. Denvers guards defend exceptionally well. Afallo and Lawson are very quick and can close the gaps on Klay and Currys jumpshots. Also, last year Denver played Warriors well on the road and even won both road games against them. Not to mention this the warriors 5th game in 7 days. Call me crazy but Im sticking to my guns.
Denver +14 for 1 unit
Denver +8 1H for 1 unit
Denver +390 1H to risk .25 units
GS team total under 115 for 1 unit
Still looking at props.
Well I was way off on the Rockets game. Funny thing, on my very first post this season I said I would bet Warriors after every loss because I believe theyre chemistry would get them back on track. They lose to OKC and I fade them. lol. I need to stick to my guns and hunches.
Onto todays game. Im sticking to my guns. Im playing Denver ATS. Denvers guards defend exceptionally well. Afallo and Lawson are very quick and can close the gaps on Klay and Currys jumpshots. Also, last year Denver played Warriors well on the road and even won both road games against them. Not to mention this the warriors 5th game in 7 days. Call me crazy but Im sticking to my guns.
Denver +14 for 1 unit
Denver +8 1H for 1 unit
Denver +390 1H to risk .25 units
GS team total under 115 for 1 unit
Still looking at props.
Since you started this thread I paid attention to GS' team totals. For me, as long as this team is playing at this pace I will be riding them ATS anytime it's below 15 and play their TT over. It seems they have been just destroying teams unless they find themselves in tough situation (Clips on Christmas and Thunder a couple of days ago which you correctly told us about). But against mediocre or lower tiered teams I think we should just continue to play on them ATS anytime it's below 15 and play their TT over. These should be auto plays until they slow down and come back to earth lol
Definitely appreciated. Even if you are on a break, your thoughts on the game would still be helpful. While I stated a few days ago that I would not be betting against this Warriors team, I am strongly considering taking Rockets plus the points tonight as they are coming off a blowout home loss to the W's a few days ago and will be trying to avoid a season sweep. Its hard for me to fade this team (especially in the 2nd half) so I am debating between a full game or first half play on the Rockets as they will be very motivated tonight. Would love to hear your thoughts on the Warriors, particularly any insight on the team mood to be aware of for tonight.
Thanks for the kind words guys. Ill come back for the writeups. I enjoy doing this, I was just worried about putting wrong info while I was on a bad run. In any case, I havnt been working Warrior games or projects lately. We have a rule, based off where you live, they put me working with the crew thats closer. I live closer to San Jose so when Sharks AND Warriors have home games, I work the SHark games unless I swap with another employee. Another shitty thing lately is when Im not working the games, theyve been putting a lot of us on the Niner and Raider projects. It BOGGLES my mind how football season is over in the bay area, yet Im still being forced to do projects for the Niners because of the Tomsula hiring. I love doing the Warrior stuff more than the other sports. Im hoping this last project I did for the Niners is done with and now working purely Warrior and a little bit of Sharks.
Interesting matchup coming up with the Kings. I say this because they know and hate the Warriors. While the Warriors have many other rivals that they like to step up against and BADLY want to win, they dont have that for the Kings. BUT, the Kings sole rival that they dismise is the Warriors. I mentioned before Im around players and execs sometimes, lately its been rare. But, Chris Mullin is the coolest mf-er in the world. When he was the Warriors exec couple years ago I got to talk to him a lot. He would always be in our studio talking basketball. Now, hes with the Kings as an exec and you can bet that he wants to win and turn around that franchise. With that said, its hard to bet against Warriors with their talent. You must bet Warriors or look for reasons to not take them. Kings already lost both games against the Warriors this year so Ill have to look deeper for the Saturday game. Ill be back then. Good luck everyone
Interesting matchup coming up with the Kings. I say this because they know and hate the Warriors. While the Warriors have many other rivals that they like to step up against and BADLY want to win, they dont have that for the Kings. BUT, the Kings sole rival that they dismise is the Warriors. I mentioned before Im around players and execs sometimes, lately its been rare. But, Chris Mullin is the coolest mf-er in the world. When he was the Warriors exec couple years ago I got to talk to him a lot. He would always be in our studio talking basketball. Now, hes with the Kings as an exec and you can bet that he wants to win and turn around that franchise. With that said, its hard to bet against Warriors with their talent. You must bet Warriors or look for reasons to not take them. Kings already lost both games against the Warriors this year so Ill have to look deeper for the Saturday game. Ill be back then. Good luck everyone
1/23
So I havent even checked out the lines for the games today until just now. HOLY SHIT! Warriors are favored by 16?!! Im thinking, how is this possible? That line is SUPER inflated. I get my Warriors are THE best team in the NBA but 16 points against the KINGs? Granted the Kings are below .500 but they can hang with the better teams in the NBA. Is Cousins out? Is Gay out? Is Thomas or McLemore or Tompson out? What the hell?
I mentioned on my last post that the Kings do not have ANY rival EXCEPT the Warriors. THIS is their rival. Warriors do not consider the Kings their foe. One of two things is happening with my analysis. EIther I know the Warriors better than whoever made the odds to this game OR this is a trap line. Ill let you decide how you would like to bet.
If I was up these past couple weeks with my picks I would EASILY make this my GOY type of play for 3 units which I do 1 or 2 times a year. But since Ive been on a bad run this is my 2unit play (average is 1 unit). SO, if you are up with your bankroll and follow my plays I would encourage making a larger play.
Kings + 16.5 to win 2 units
lag0su, in regards to your question, no I would lay off that and not touch it. I actually think Klay gets less than his average 22 points today and Gay gets more than his average of 19. Reason being, both are jump shooters type of Shooting Guards. Unlike the penatrating SGs, the jump shooters rely on rythem and streaks. Gays shot has been doing well (im basing this off his stats not watching). Klay was off on his last game. When hes on, his 3's are in the upper 40% to 50%. This last game he shot below 50from the field but 3 of 8 from 37% from 3. I see Klay having an off day and let the others take the spot light.
Klay under 22.5 1 unit
So I havent even checked out the lines for the games today until just now. HOLY SHIT! Warriors are favored by 16?!! Im thinking, how is this possible? That line is SUPER inflated. I get my Warriors are THE best team in the NBA but 16 points against the KINGs? Granted the Kings are below .500 but they can hang with the better teams in the NBA. Is Cousins out? Is Gay out? Is Thomas or McLemore or Tompson out? What the hell?
I mentioned on my last post that the Kings do not have ANY rival EXCEPT the Warriors. THIS is their rival. Warriors do not consider the Kings their foe. One of two things is happening with my analysis. EIther I know the Warriors better than whoever made the odds to this game OR this is a trap line. Ill let you decide how you would like to bet.
If I was up these past couple weeks with my picks I would EASILY make this my GOY type of play for 3 units which I do 1 or 2 times a year. But since Ive been on a bad run this is my 2unit play (average is 1 unit). SO, if you are up with your bankroll and follow my plays I would encourage making a larger play.
Kings + 16.5 to win 2 units
lag0su, in regards to your question, no I would lay off that and not touch it. I actually think Klay gets less than his average 22 points today and Gay gets more than his average of 19. Reason being, both are jump shooters type of Shooting Guards. Unlike the penatrating SGs, the jump shooters rely on rythem and streaks. Gays shot has been doing well (im basing this off his stats not watching). Klay was off on his last game. When hes on, his 3's are in the upper 40% to 50%. This last game he shot below 50from the field but 3 of 8 from 37% from 3. I see Klay having an off day and let the others take the spot light.
Klay under 22.5 1 unit
