Costanza's Formula 1 Season 2007 Picks

[Costanza]

Hongarian Grand Prix this weekend !

Pick 68: Qualif H2H Vettel vs Liuzzi (1 Unit) @ 2.00

Sebastian Vettel is replacing Scott Speed in the Toro Rosso team and has allready shown that he is the talent that they are claiming him to be. The 20 year old driver allready started 1 race this year with BMW and finished just inside the points. Now he's getting the chance to prove what he's worth and he seems to be feeling really good in the new team and the new car. Without any testing he was allready capable of compeating with his new team mate still having to adjust to the new car. With another practice session to go, everything should be in place for him to win the H2H matchup agains Liuzzi who got regualry beat by his former team mate Scott Speed during qualif. The Hongaroring is is circuit where the starting place is extremely important because of the few overtaking opportunitys the circuit has to offer. So I'm sure that Vettel will do anything in his power to get the best possible position.
They are offering even money on this matchup at Bet365 which is worth taking in my opinion.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 69: Qualif H2H Rosberg+Webber vs Wurz+Coultard (1 Unit) @ 1.89


I'm taking this combo because Betsafe is just offering a bit too high odds on both these matchups. Even though Wurz has closed a big part of the gap between him and his team mate, Rosberg is still way the better driver and I expect nothing less then him qualifying in front again. During the first day at the hungaroring he was able to drive the 4th fastest time being a bit more then half a second faster then Wurz who ended 12th (1.35 odds on Rosberg)

Webber is well known to be a good qualif driver and I also expect him to be once again faster then his team mate Coultard. H2H stats are allmost 100% in favor of Webber. (1.40 odds on Webber)

These 2 should be easy winners of nothing unfortunate happens.
1.35 x 1.40 = 1.89 odds available with Betsafe

 

[tkt]

Tip Detail

Sport Motorsport
Event F1 Hungary qualifying H2H
Selection Button vs Baricello, Button to win
Strength 10/10
Date 04/08/2007
Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 2.00 (Back)
Reasoning A new team mate battle between Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello takes place today in qualifying. Recently Jenson improved his performances in qualifying and started to beat his team mate that’s why today we are relying on him. Last year he won this GP despite the fact that he was starting behind Rubens this year it will probably never happen again but I think he will beat his team mate in qualifying. Rubens had some problems yesterday in Free Practice and the problems may not disappear as quickly as we all expect so this looks like a very good bet.

 

[tkt]

Tip Detail

Sport Motorsport
Event F1 Hungary qualifying H2H
Selection Davidson to win Sato in H2H
Strength 10/10
Date 04/08/2007
Bookmaker/Price Unibet @ 1.85 (Back)
Reasoning Sato showed nothing good in both friday practice sessions, Davidson was a lot better in both of them, I expect this to continue today...

 

[tkt]

Tip Detail

Sport Motorsport
Event F1 Hungary qualifying H2H
Selection Rosberg to win Trulli in H2H
Strength 10/10
Date 04/08/2007
Bookmaker/Price Unibet @ 1.75 (Back)
Reasoning Trulli showed nothing in friday practice, Rosberg was better on both practices, I expect him to continue this today too...

 

[tkt]

Tip Detail

Sport Motorsport
Event F1 Hungary qualifying H2H
Selection Alonso vs Hamilton, Alonso to win
Strength 10/10
Date 04/08/2007
Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.66 (Back)
Reasoning Alonso was better in both free pratices on friday, I expect him to keep this up on saturday free practice and qualifying.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 68: Qualif H2H Vettel vs Liuzzi ( 0.7 Units) @ 1.95

I'm semi-cancelling this bet after Liuzzi was quite a bit faster in the last practice session. I expected Vettel to be in front of him by then. Expekt is offering a nice way out only losing 5% which I'm going to take for a part of the stake.

 

[tkt]

UNBELIEVABLE!

4 out of 4 won.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 68: Qualif H2H Vettel vs Liuzzi (1 Unit) @ 2.00 --> LOST (- 1.000 units)
Pick 69: Qualif H2H Rosberg+Webber vs Wurz+Coultard (1 Unit) @ 1.89 --> WON (+0.890 units)
Pick 70: Qualif H2H Vettel vs Liuzzi ( 0.7 Units) @ 1.95 --> WON (+0.665 units)

updated record:

Picks = 70 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 38 / 29 / 3 (56,7% winners)
Units Bet = 65.7 units
Units Return = 73.027 unit
Profit = +7.327 Units
ROI = +11,15 %

Race 11 Hongarian GP Record: 2 - 1| +0.555 Units (+20.5% ROI)
Race 10 Europe GP Record: 4 - 6| -1.231Units (-23% ROI)
Race 09 British GP Record: 3 - 5| - 2.769 Units (-34.6% ROI)
Race 08 French GP Record: 1 - 5| - 4.599 Units (-70% ROI)
Race 07 US GP Record: 5 - 1| +5.500 Units (+73% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

 

[Costanza]

Pick 71: Race H2H R.Schumacher vs N. Rosberg (1 Unit) @ 1.66

Just a couple reasons why Nico Rosberg has got more then 60% chance of Finishing this race ahead of Ralf.

The main thing Rosberg has to do here is staying ahead of Ralf after the start. Everything looks to be in place for this to happen. Nico starting 1 place ahead on the clean side of the road which is very important on a 'dusty' circuit like the Hongaroring. The circuit is known for a high level of dificulty when it comes down to overtaking, so Rosberg who should be able to drive a faster pace should be clean after a good start. Just like last week I like to oppose Ralf because he always finds some way to mess his race up. It's been a while since Rosberg was able to take points because a lot of unforutunate events. I really believe he is able to get this done tomorrow. 1.66 odds defenatly have value in this spot and are available with Bet365.

 

[Costanza]

*** 1.69 odds on Rosberg are available with 5Dimes!

 

[Costanza]

Pick 72: Race H2H M. Webber vs J. Trulli (1 Unit) @ 1.833

Almost the exact same reason as previous pick, the starting place on the grid is extremely important in this race. Trulli has got a serious advantage starting from the clean side and should be able to keep in front at the start. It must be said that Webber is starting from 10th and will probably have more fuel allowing him to stay out a bit longer. Still I'm not really affraid of this fact also because there is some added value when it comes down to reliability. The RBR car is still having quite some problems here and there and should have more chance of a retirement. I'm glad to take the 1.833 odds on this which are available at 5Dimes.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 73: Race H2H Fisichella vs Kubica (1 Unit) @ 1.588

Once again I like this type of bet based on starting place on the grid combined with the nature of the track that doesn't allow much overtaking. Clean vs Dirty side really makes a lot of difference. BMW should be the better car and I see Kubica driving a good race in what can be called his home Grand Prix since there are a lot of Poilsh fans. Once again available at 5Dimes

 

[tkt]

I cannot find any decent H2Hs in my book, but Costanza what do you think about these?
Sebastian Vettel (Toro Rosso) - Vitantonio Liuzzi (Toro Rosso)
David Coulthard (Red Bull) - Mark Webber (Red Bull)
Jarno Trulli (Toyota) - Ralf Schumacher (Toyota)
Adrian Sutil (Spyker) - Sakon Yamamoto (Spyker)
Jenson Button (Honda) - Rubens Barrichello (Honda)

I would take Button out of these, what do you think?

 

[tkt]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/6929333.stm

So news is out! Alonso 5 places down! Hamilton has advantage definitely now!

 

[Costanza]

Pick 74: Race winner Alonso -> NOT @ 2.00 (2 Units)

bet this one fast because news just is out that Alonso starts in 6th place because of the incident.
Still available at some places, I betted at Bwin

 

[Costanza]

Bet will probably be voided but it's worth a shot, was typing a reply to your questions when I got the news tkt.

Lost all the text and will keep it short now.

starting position is very important when betting H2H specially on this circuit.
I never take too low odds becouse the "reverse implied odds" you have because of the chance of a retirement. Button seems the best option out of those at around 1.70+ I would say.

good luck

 

[Costanza]

Pick 75: Race H2H Fisichella vs Kovalainen (Kova not classified = No Bet) @ 1.840 (1 Unit)

Yet another very interesting opportunity has come up with Fisico getting a 5 place Penalty after he blocked yamamoto during the qualif session. Kova has been all over his team mate last couple races and things look very good for him to win yet another H2H battle in this race. Starting 2 places in front of his team mate defenatly gives him an edge and some bookies still have to adjust their odds. The 2.25 odds that bet4e are offering are defenatly +EV. Still taking it a bit safe beause I allready have a bet against Fisico on this race and I'm adding the No bet option in case Kova has to retire. I will count both bets seperate in case they would both win.

0.818 units on H2H Kova @ 2.25 (Bet4e)
0.182 units on Kova not te be classified @ 5.5 (Stan James)

 

[chriscol]

constanza, how do you like Heidfeld over Massa @ 1.51? i cannot understnad the odds seeing the quali results

 

[Costanza]

Defenatly seems worth taking, but I always try not to go too low in odds when it comes down to Race H2H bets because of the retirement factor really hurts when it comes down to these bets.

I had a bet in mind for Heidfeld to take a top 3 place @ 3.3 just after the penalty was awarded to Alonso but the specific bookmaker that was offering those odds did not accept moneybookers deposit.

good luck !
odds on Kovalainen dropped from 2.25 to 1.65 by now and the Bet on Alonso not to win the race has been voided by Bwin