Costanza's Formula 1 Season 2007 Picks

Costanza · Jul 1, 2007

Thanks Leviathan, Ferrari vs Mclaren Battle is really close
Could go both ways and there is no way to tell what strategies the teams will use. Magny Cours is a circuit with a very short Pit lane making it only around 20 seconds for a pit stop from start to finish. Schumacher was the only driver so far managing to win a race after taking 4 pit stops at this circuit.
There is also still chance on rain for as far as I know

I'm still looking into some things right now and really like Raikonnen to be in 3th place after lap 1 @ 1.95. The distance from the starting line to the 1st corner isn't that big so less chance for overtaking actions.

Costanza · Jul 1, 2007

3 more bets for the race that's starting within the hour...

Pick 47: Race Place after Lap 1 Raikkonen = 3th (1 Unit) @ 1.950

With not a long way to go before the 1st corner and 2 rather good starters in front of him, chances are rather high that Kimi will just keep his 3th place after lap 1. Available @ Bet365

Pick 48: Race H2H Sutil vs Albers (1 Unit) @ 1.901

Sutil is the faster driver, allready has experiance on the track and is one of the better driver in case there would bet wet track conditions. Even though he's staring 1 place behind he should be able to classify in front of Albers. Available @ Gamebookers

Pick 49: Race H2H Coultard vs Webber (1 Unit) @ 2.15

Coultard has a very good record at Magny Cours and is the better driver when it comes down to driving a race. He's starting 2 places behind his team mate but I'm not really concernd about that. He allready had his share of bad luck so far and has got equal chance to have technical problems then his team mate.

Costanza · Jul 1, 2007

Pick 44: Race Top 8 Finish for Rosberg (-1/2 in case of retirement) (1 Unit) @ 1.973 --> LOST (- 1 unit)
Pick 47: Race Place after Lap 1 Raikkonen = 3th (1 Unit) @ 1.950 --> LOST (- 1 unit)
Pick 48: Race H2H Sutil vs Albers (1 Unit) @ 1.901 --> WON (+0.901 units)
Pick 49: Race H2H Coultard vs Webber (1 Unit) @ 2.15 --> LOST (- 1 unit)

Noting went as planned this weekend :s
Rosberg 9th just outside the points
Coultard just 1 place behind his team mate
Hamilton not taking a good start and kimi able to overtake him
Sutil having technical problems during his fast lap in qualif

A GP weekend soon to forget

updated record:

Picks = 49 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 29 / 17 / 3 (63% winners)
Units Bet = 46.2 units
Units Return = 56.922 unit
Average Stake = 0.94 units
Profit = +10.722 Units
ROI = +23,2 %

Race 08 French GP Record: 1 - 5| - 4.599 Units (-100% ROI)
Race 07 US GP Record: 5 - 1| +5.500 Units (+73% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)

Hoping for better results next week at silverstone

Costanza · Jul 6, 2007

Time to bounce back in the British GP this weekend.

RobFunk · Jul 6, 2007

You got to be thinking that Hamilton takes it on his home turf. I know it's had to have your crossed your mind.

Ferrari got really fast again though.

Costanza · Jul 6, 2007

Pick 50: Qualif H2H Trulli+Rosberg vs Schumacher+Wurz (1 Unit) @ 1.86

Just quite a bit overpriced this bet in my opinion because the bookies are just a bit too much influenced by Ralf's good performance in free practice 2 today. Jarno Trulli is still one of the better qualif drivers when the prices are being rewarded and has a perfect 8-0 H2H lead so far this year in the qualifiquations. Both drivers have had some good performances in silverstone qualif session. Trulli has so far always been faster then his team mate in Silverstone (only once he was unable to drive a time). He also managed to qualify on the 1st row in 2003 with his Renault.

Rosberg also has a perfect 8-0 record against his team mate Wurz when it comes down to qualification sessions. I don't see many reasons why this would not be the case again this weekend and to short 1.20 odds are enough to take into a parlay.

So 1.55 x 1.20 = 1.86 for both Trulli and Rosberg to qualify once again ahead of their team mates. A bet that has been a 100% hit so far this year in 8 races. Odds are available at interwetten.

Costanza · Jul 6, 2007

Pick 51: Qualif Winner = Massa (if not but Massa > Kimi = No Bet) (1 Units) @ 2.787

Ferrari was able to comfirm their performance from last week so far and they are looking strong for tomorrows qualif session. Kimi was fastest today with a rather big 0.650 sec margin on all other cars. Even though it shouldn't be taken extremely serious, it usually gives a general idea of what to expect. Massa has allready proven to be a very good driver when it comes down to qualifying and was unable to drive a fast lap on soft tyres today because he made a mistake during his last lap. I favor Massa to take his 5th pole of the season.

I'm splitting this up in 2 bets:
0.5 units on Massa to take the Pole @ 3.574 (Betfair)
0.5 units on Massa > Kimi @ 2.00 (Expekt / Bwin / ...)

Costanza · Jul 6, 2007

Pick 52: Qualif H2H = Webber vs Barrichello (1 Units) @ 1.481

I just don't see any other winner then Mark Webber in this matchup. Even though Red Bull Racing dissapointed in France, I don't think the progression of Honda is that big and Webber who usually is able to qualify in the top 10 should end up in front of Barrichello.

Costanza · Jul 6, 2007

last bet is available at pinnacle, still looking into the Sutil vs Albers bet at the moment.

small update on bet 50: Unibet is offering 1.91 odds on this !

Costanza · Jul 6, 2007

Pick 53: Qualif H2H = Sutil vs Albers (1 Units) @ 1.650

I'm sticking with this bet, it should have won last week but Sutil had technical problems in his final fast lap of the qualif session. Adding up the possible wet track conditions Sutis defenatly got an edge over his team mate. The 1.65 odds that bwin are offering are woth a shot at.

Costanza · Jul 7, 2007

Pick 54: Race Points Finish Rosberg (1 Units) @ 2.450

I'm also sticking with this bet this GP, Rosberg is having a good season this year and is well capable of taking a top 8 spot in the race. Just finished outside the top 8 last week and he's looking strong again so far this race weekend. Odds available at Betfair

Costanza · Jul 7, 2007

Pick 50: Qualif H2H Trulli+Rosberg vs Schumacher+Wurz (1 Unit) @ 1.86 --> LOST (- 1 unit)
Pick 51: Qualif Winner = Massa (if not but Massa > Kimi = No Bet) (1 Units) @ 2.787 --> LOST (- 1 unit)
Pick 52: Qualif H2H = Webber vs Barrichello (1 Units) @ 1.481 --> WON (+0.481 units)
Pick 53: Qualif H2H = Sutil vs Albers (1 Units) @ 1.650 --> WON (+0.650 units)

Not the best qualif session, I'm going to try to stay away from these speculative bets from now on. Rosberg his fast lap got screwed up by a yellow flag which forced him to slow down. Ralf was impressive and the bet on massa had no chance. Both low odds bets won without a fight so things could have been worse. I'm going to take a look into things 2 hours before the race so that I'm sure about weather conditions and stuff. Probably a second losing GP in a row and I'm not planning to go chasing things right away.

updated record:

Picks = 53 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 31 / 19 / 3 (62% winners)
Units Bet = 50.2 units
Units Return = 60.053 unit
Average Stake = 0.95 units
Profit = +9.853 Units
ROI = +19,6 %

Race 08 British GP Record: 2 - 2| - 0.869 Units (-21.7% ROI)
Race 08 French GP Record: 1 - 5| - 4.599 Units (-100% ROI)
Race 07 US GP Record: 5 - 1| +5.500 Units (+73% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)

Costanza · Jul 8, 2007

Pick 55: Race H2H Hamilton vs Raikkonen (1 Units) @ 1.727

Starting from the pole on the left clean side of the track defenatly gives an edge to Hamilton to get off to a good start in his home GP. Both times so far when Hamilton started from Pole Position, he managed to lead from start to finish and I would not be surprised if this would once again be the case today. He has proven to be one of the better drivers in the field in his very reliable Mclaren Car. In 6 of the 8 GP's so far this year the Pilot starting from the Pole took the victory. H2H stats so far is 6-2 in favor of Hamilton. For this to be an even money bet he needs a 57.9 % chance to finish ahead of Kimi. I estimate this a bit higer so I'm taking the 1.727 odds that PaddyPower are offering on this.

Costanza · Jul 8, 2007

Pick 56: Race H2H Sutil vs Albers (1 Units) @ 1.650

I don't see much chance of Albers overtaking Sutil in the race unless something unfortunate happens. Sutil is starting 2 places in front of him on the same side of the track. There is still some chance on rainy race conditions in Silverstone which could be in favor because Sutil is one of the better drivers when it comes down to wet weather conditions. This one needs to have around 60.5% chance to win to be even money. Sutil starting in front should give a big enough edge to take it. Odds available at expekt

Costanza · Jul 8, 2007

Pick 57: Race H2H Kovalainen vs Fisichella (1 Units) @ 2.100

Kovalainen has really made a lot of improvement since the start of the season where he made some rookie mistakes. Last couple GP's he really made a good impression after good qualif sessions and taking a handfull of points in the races finishing a couple times ahead of his team mate. This race weekend he was faster then Fisico in every single session. Starting 1 place in front of his team mate on the "good side" of the track he should not be the underdog here. The extra edge of having the same car and equal chance of technical problems makes me favor him finish ahead. Most places only give around 1.90, Stan James is offering 2.10 odds which are worth taking.

Costanza · Jul 8, 2007

Pick 54: Race Points Finish Rosberg (1 Units) @ 2.450 --> LOST (- 1 unit)
Pick 55: Race H2H Hamilton vs Raikkonen (1 Units) @ 1.727 --> LOST (- 1 unit)
Pick 56: Race H2H Sutil vs Albers (1 Units) @ 1.650 --> LOST (- 1 unit)
Pick 57: Race H2H Kovalainen vs Fisichella (1 Units) @ 2.100 --> WON (+1.100 units)

Not much going as planned again, Hamilton dissapointed and was a bad pick. Rosberg didn't have much chance because the unlucky qualif starting place. Sutil blew up his engine when being ahead of his team mate. Glad to see kova delivering something. Another GP soon to forget with 2 bets I don't feel good about and turned out to be on the complete wrong side (Massa for pole and Hamilton H2H). Will have 2 weeks to clear my head and get things straight. I'll be visiting Francorchamps this week to withness the F1 Practice days which should be fun

updated record:

Picks = 57 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 32 / 22 / 3 (59% winners)
Units Bet = 54.2 units
Units Return = 62.153 unit
Average Stake = 0.95 units
Profit = +7.953 Units
ROI = +14,6 %

Race 08 British GP Record: 3 - 5| - 2.769 Units (-34.6% ROI)
Race 08 French GP Record: 1 - 5| - 4.599 Units (-70% ROI)
Race 07 US GP Record: 5 - 1| +5.500 Units (+73% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)

RobFunk · Jul 12, 2007

Costanza, I have to say your knowledge is impressive even if you had a bad week. I enjoy reading your stuff.

I'll be visiting Francorchamps this week to withness the F1 Practice days which should be fun

Lucky! Enjoy.

Costanza · Jul 20, 2007

Europe GP this weekend at the Nurburgring

Pick 58: Qualif H2H Trulli+Rosberg vs Ralf+Wurz (1 Unit) @ 2.04

I'm going to take another shot at the bet that totally went wrong last time. Rosberg did had very bad luck and Ralf impressed and was for the first time faster in a qualif session. Don't see this one time event I don't see this one time event changing anything to the fact that Trulli is the better qualif driver. In the last 7 years he was able to qualiy 7 times in front of his team mate, Ralf has a 3 on 7 record including 0-2 vs Trulli.
Season H2H stats are still impressive with a 8 - 1 record for Trulli.

Rosberg has proven to be just way faster then his team mate and only bad luck can keep him away from qualifying ahead.

Trulli @ 1.70 x Rosberg @ 1.20 = 2.04 odds available with interwetten

Costanza · Jul 20, 2007

Pick 59: Qualif Top 10 place Kovalainen (1 Unit) @ 1.66

A clear pattern is noticable here, Renault not being very fast during the friday free practice sessions where they concentrated on finding a good balance and testing the tyres. Both Renault cars did not drive fast times just like on fridays in last couple GP's where they came out good during the qualif session. Kovalainen has found his turn in the team and his results have been very good lately. He managed to get to the 3th part of the qualif session last 4 races with an average of a ~6th place in the 2nd part of qualif. Renault should normally be on their usuall pace again tomorrow and I'm taking Kova to take a top 10 stating place now at a 1.66 price which is available at Bet365. Bwin is actually only giving 1.35 for this, so people with a big bankroll should be able to get guarantueed profit taking both sides.

Costanza · Jul 20, 2007

Race Safety Car to be out = NO @ 1.72 (waiting to place this bet)

Just like most circuits these days there have been made a lot of safety measures to guarantee the safety of the pilots. This is usually done by removing the grind near the corners and replacing it with the same material as the track itself so that cars who go wide have no problem getting back in the race. This fact reduces the chance of cars blocking the road with quite a bit and this has been noticable with only 2 races so far this year who had a safety car. Last 10 years at the Nurberugring the safety car was only needed twice. My only concern at the moment is the weather conditions who are obviously a huge factor concerning this bet. Going to wait to place this bet just before the race if the odds stay up and when I'm sure there will be no rain. info on these safety car stats from f1punter.wordpress.com