Costanza's Formula 1 Season 2007 Picks

[Costanza]

Pick 88: Qualif H2H Webber vs Trulli @ 2.110 (1 Unit)

This one is something of a classic coin flip, both drivers have been really close all season long when it comes down the the qualif sessions usually making it inside the top 10. H2H is 8-7 in favor of Trulli. Both drivers had a good first race day clocking a good time. The toyota like usual very good during these practice sessions 1 place ahead of Webber. Both Trulli and Webber are top class qualif drivers. Last 2 races on this circuit, trulli was unable to get the best of his team mate, but Webber was. These 2 are so close when it comes down to lap times even though they have a different car. Webber has been quite impressive during last couple races, Trulli has been struggling a bit. I see this one just like most bookies who offer 1.85 - 1.85 odds like a classic coin flip that's even slightly in favor of Webber. So I have to take his side here. Odds allready dropped from 2.150 so I'm defnatly not the only one that's sharing this opinion.
Available at Pinnacle !

 

[Costanza]

Pick 89: Qualif H2H Vettel vs Liuzzi @ + 0.30 (0 Unit)

Some possible free money without any risk
Vettel havind a 10 place penalty has got some bookies with different ideas,
since he drops 10 places there istn't much he can do but to take a top 10 place which is very unlikely in dry conditions. Since fuel in the 1st 2 sessions are the same for everyone there is no possible advantage.

A couple reliable bookies have this matchup available at different prices. Putting 3 units on each without any risk but a void bet which is very unlikely.

3 units on Vettel @ 2.10 -> Bwin
3 units on Liuzzi @ 2.00 -> Stan James

Free money in case Vettel gets the best of his team mate.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 88: Qualif H2H Webber vs Trulli @ 2.110 (1 Unit) --> WON (+ 1.110 units)
Pick xx: Qualif H2H Vettel vs Liuzzi @ + 0.30 (0 Unit) --> NO Bet

updated record:

Picks = 88 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 49 / 36 / 3 (57,6% winners)
Units Bet = 84.95 units
Units Return = 97.980 unit
Profit = +12.030 Units
ROI = +15,33 %

Race 16 Chinese GP Record: 1 - 0| +1.110 Units (+111% ROI)
Race 15 Japanese GP Record: 0 - 0| +0..000 Units (+0% ROI)
Race 14 Belgian GP Record: 0 - 2| -2.500 Units (-100% ROI)
Race 13 Italian GP Record: 5 - 1| +4.460 Units (+77.5% ROI)
Race 12 Turkish GP Record: 2 - 2| +0.205 Units (+4.1% ROI)
Race 11 Hongarian GP Record: 5 - 3| +1.968 Units (+21.8% ROI)
Race 10 Europe GP Record: 4 - 6| -1.231Units (-23% ROI)
Race 09 British GP Record: 3 - 5| - 2.769 Units (-34.6% ROI)
Race 08 French GP Record: 1 - 5| - 4.599 Units (-70% ROI)
Race 07 US GP Record: 5 - 1| +5.500 Units (+73% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

 

[Costanza]

nothing for the Race so far

 

[themadactuarian]

I'm hoping you like Massa...

good luck.

 

[chriscol]

now it will be a great final...would be a fun bet to win to take kimmi to win it all...alonso will be desperate to overtake hammi...that could be a crazy race ..thx for work

 

[Costanza]

Shoud be a very interesting last race of the season =)

 

[Costanza]

Pick 89: Free Practice 1 H2H Alonso vs Hamilton @ 1.700 (1 Unit)

The First Practice starts within 2 hours and there is 1 matchup that has my interest at the moment.

The Sao Paulo circuit is completely new to Lewis Hamilton. only experiance he has is trough the simulator. Alonso has build up a lot of experiance over the years and has proven to be fast on the circuit with a pole position in 2005. The H2H statistics this year between the two mclaren drivers is 10-6 in favor of Alonso. Only once Hamilton was able to get the best of it on the 7 circuits new to him during the 1st free practice this season. Alonso in the hunt for the title should make a statement and go for a fast time in the first session. Possible rain is predicted and I see Alonso as the slightly better driver in wet conditions. I my view he shoud be around a 70% favorite in this spot.

 

[Costanza]

Alonso did not come out during the 1st free practice session because the track was slightly wet. Bet is void because he did not have an official time.

 

[chriscol]

what do you think about the race?

i know you dont like the straight winner, but i am looking at Massa..he is at home and if alonso and ham dont go out he will not let kimmi win.

than i also have a funny feeling about alonso...no real capping, but it is not a very good week for english sport...i can already see the news: collapse by the football team, loss by the rugby-team and young hamilton cant finish the last 2 races...

lot s of szenarios to discuss: is alonso really desperate to overtake ham? i think it only helps if ham is out.
will kimmi be desperate to overtake ham in first corner?? i think yes: his only chance is both mercedes are crashing out..what better situation than overtaking Ham early and than having Alonso driving right behind Ham..
those are szenarios i can see..just looking now for bets,matchups to make money with it..
do you have other matchups you like?

 

[Costanza]

Hey Chris,
been breaking my head over the possible scenarios for this race involving the Championchip winner and the only scenario that I can come up with it to sit back and enjoy the show without making a bet on it. Didn't have the time yet to look at some possible bets but I will during the day.
If you find something interseting let me know.

 

[averick]

There's something i don't really understand.. since Hamilton is starting second and Kimi third why are their h2h odds as such:

Raikkonen - Hamilton L 1.60 2.20

Shouldn't Hamilton be the favourite?

Raikkonen - Massa F 1.60 2.20

i'm not really sure about this too..

Also Raikkonen is at 2.70 to win today's race, while Massa is at 3.00, with Hamilton at 4.00.

Are they expecting Raikkonen to do well because Massa might let him win?

 

[chriscol]

yes that s the only reason...if somehow alonso and Ham go out..ferrari will manage somehow to get Kimmi in front...but how likely is this szenario?
in any other case it will be more important for ferrari to give Massa his "home win"..therfore i actually like the massa odds...either in matchuip up over kimmi or straight up to win. i have not decided yet.
but i also think not everything will go according to plan in this race...2 more hours to come up with ideas:

on other matchups

i like vettel over liuzzi

 

[Costanza]

a couple reasons for this,

*The Ferrari's generally have a better race pace then the Mclarens. Look back at most GP's this season and you'll see that the fastest lap in the race is for the ferrari most of the time.

* Take some time to look back at some similar situations this season where Lewis started in front of Kimi, almost always kimi was able to get the best of it during the race.

* The race is all about winning the championship, Hamilton only wants the title and is actually in an excellent position right now. Finishing 4th will probably be enoug for him which shouldn't be so difficult given the supremacy of the 2 top teams this season. Alonso starting from 4th will have an very difficult task to win this race. A very likely result for this race that Hamilton will be happy to sign for would be.

1 Massa (10pts)
2 Kimi (8pts)
3 Alonso (6pts)
4 Hamilton (5pts)

* also Hamilton is starting from the "dirty" side from the track if I'm not mistaken. It's been seen every race again that this is a serious disadvantage for the race start.

Can't wait for the race to start and see how things work out. It could all go very different then expected since it remains a very technical sport. Looking at the past, not many times did the champion chip leader end up champion in the last race with multiple candicates.

good luck

 

[Costanza]

about the Massa vs Raikkonen.

Massa has an impressive record when it comes down to winning races where he starts from the Pole. The only reason that Massa would 'give up' (in case he would be able to stay in the lead) is to help his team mate possibly win the championship. Still there is the fact that team orders are forbidden, so if it would happen that Hamilton would retire & the race order would be at that time 1) Massa 2) Kimi 3) Alonso. then Kimi would have to get in front of Massa to be world champion. If they pull something off then it would all be extremely suspicious. So Massa who just happend to have renewed his contract might have been askes by ferrari to give this one up for the team early in the race if the situation would occur.

 

[averick]

I'm liking Massa at 3.00, because for both hamilton and alonso to retire would take something sort of a miracle. but then anything can happen in this sport.

yes hamilton is starting on the side of the track that has more dirt, thus he has a slight disadvantage during the start. that slipped my mind earlier.

Anyone taking Massa to win the race?
I'm also looking at Massa over Hamilton @ 1.60, because i doubt Hamilton will try to pull any stunts off. He'll probably be happy to stay on the track and finish 2nd or 3rd.

 

[chriscol]

ok ive decided:

Massa over Kimmi (see above) @ 2.65

Alonso over Ham @ 2.61

it s enough for Ham, just not to retire, if ferrari wins..so i like an outcome where ham lets alonso pass and quitely drives home in forth or third position.

vettel-lizzu @ 1.72

BOL to all and a great race

 

[Costanza]

good luck today chris !

 

[averick]

bol to you too.

any thoughts on massa to finish ahead on hamilton, and to win the race?

tks i haven't been watching too much f1 this season, rather busy..

 

[averick]

in the end i took massa to win, massa over hamilton and tailed chris on massa over kimi.

lots of drama atm!
hamilton down to 7th.. if alonso finishes 2nd he will be champion.

on the other hand if all things stay the same then raikkonen can win this in dramatic fashion if he overtakes massa