Costanza's Formula 1 Season 2007 Picks

[Costanza]

Pick 60: Qualif Top 10 place Jenson Button = NO (1 Unit) @ 1.60

The competition for a spot inside the top10 is extremely tough at the moment. 3 teams (6 drivers) are as good as guaranteed a top 10 place. (Mclaren/Ferrari/BMW) then we've got the Renault cars who have shown to be vert competative lately and should normally also get a top 10 spot. Webber, Trull & Rosberg are also 3 drivers who regulary end up in the top 10 and Ralf has also shown to be capable lately. This leaves very little space for other cars to get this result. Jenson button only managed to get 1 top 10 spot in qualif so far this year in monaco were both Honda cars performed good. In all other sessions this season, he failed to get there. After having driven 36 laps today he tested the car in a long run which also made him lose quite some fuel resulting in faster times and an 8th place. So this good result in the free session might have caused the odds to be just a little bit to high on Jenson to make it to qualif session 3.
1.60 is available on Bwin.

 

[Costanza]

I'm concidering making a counter bet on the trulli H2H,
it's really looking like last GP where ralf was also faster in every single session, will know more when the new odds are out at expekt

 

[Costanza]

Pick 61: Qualif H2H Ralf vs Trulli (0.6 Units) @ 2.05

don't feel very secure about this one anymore since it's really looking like the same scenaria as last GP. So I'm taking this little counter bet since Rosberg should have no problem finishing ahead of wurz. odds now available at Unibet

 

[Costanza]

Europe GP qualif Bets
Pick 58: Qualif H2H Trulli+Rosberg vs Ralf+Wurz (1 Unit) @ 2.04 --> WON (+1.040 units)
Pick 59: Qualif Top 10 place Kovalainen (1 Unit) @ 1.66 --> WON (+0.660 units)
Pick 60: Qualif Top 10 place Jenson Button = NO (1 Unit) @ 1.60 --> WON (+0.600 units)
Pick 61: Qualif H2H Ralf vs Trulli (0.6 Units) @ 2.05 --> LOST (- 0.600 units)

updated record:

Picks = 61 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 35 / 23 / 3 (60% winners)
Units Bet = 57.8 units
Units Return = 67.453 unit
Average Stake = 0.94 units
Profit = +9.653 Units
ROI = +16,7 %

Race 10 Europe GP Record: 3 - 1| +1.700 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 09 British GP Record: 3 - 5| - 2.769 Units (-34.6% ROI)
Race 08 French GP Record: 1 - 5| - 4.599 Units (-70% ROI)
Race 07 US GP Record: 5 - 1| +5.500 Units (+73% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

Gonna take a look at some bets for the race later on.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 62: Race H2H Kovalainen vs Webber (1 Unit) @ 1.90

I really like the odds that Interwetten are offering on this matchup. So Kovalainen is starting 1 place behind after qualifying 0.002 sec slower than Webber. 7th place for Kova who's starting from the cleaner side of the track which might help him during the start of the race. Kovalainen who has really shown his talent last couple races should be able to maintain a faster pace then Webber who is generally a better Qualif driver then he is a race driver. Another huge factor which made me lean for the Renault in this spot is the reliability of the car. Even though both cars are equipped with the renault engine, RBR has had quite some problems with the reliability of their car. Specially their Gearbox has been causing them a lot of trouble. Looking back at previous races at the Nurburgring it is noticable that there were frequently cars who had to retire because of Gearbox problems. So chances are defenatly higer of webber having technical problems in the race compared to Kovainen in the Renault which gives the bet and extra edge.

 

[Costanza]

can't pull the trigger on any other bets I'm interested in right now, gonna have another look tomorrow a couple hours before the race.

 

[themadactuarian]

I am somewhat scared about the start, as the selfish spaniard might get aggressive at the first turn. Shumi commentary that Hamilton is worth watching (on the TV), is just meant to insult the competition...

KIMI -127 is great value. Barring mech. problems, RAIKO should get 3rd win a row.

good luck.

 

[MistaFlava]

I agree...Kimmi is not losing this race...not the way Ferrari is surging.

 

[Costanza]

Also feel strong about Kimi winning his 3th in a row but not making awager on it. Out of the last 10 races on the Nurburgring in F1, only Michael Schumacher was able to win it (twice) starting from Pole Position.
Gonna have a look into Kimi to drive the fastest lap @ 2.60 odds later today, they look rather high at first sight

 

[Costanza]

Pick 63: Race Fastest Lap Kimi Raikkonen [-1/2 stake if Massa] (1 Unit) @ 2.188

Kimi has dominated the entire weekend so far and things really look like he found his speed again last couple races in the Ferrari. Starting from Pole, everything is in place for him to take hir 3th victory in a row whick I'm not backing because I'm not a fan of outright winning bets since there are a lot of things that can go wrong at any time. I highly favor a ferrari car to drive the fastest lap during the race and taking Kimi to do this just like in Britain where he was able to clock the fastest time during the race. Still wouldn't rule out Massa who will most likely be in the battle for 2nd place with Alonso and in case Massa has a bit more fuel on board, the 2 or 3 extra laps out before his 1st pit stop should very fast laps with low fuel and him pushing things to win the extra needed time to pass Alonso in the pits.

So
0.875 units on Kimi to drive the fastest lap @ 2.50 (Bwin)
0.125 units on Massa to drive the fastest lap @ 4.00 (Bwin)

 

[Costanza]

Another interesting opportunity for some free money has come up,
previous Matchup bet Webber vs Kovalainen is available for these prices

Kovalainen @ 1.90 -> Interwetten
Webber @ 2.30 -> 5 Dimes

Those with a big bankroll should be able to take full advantage of this =)
Couple more bets for the race will be online within the hour.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 64: Race Safety Car during race = NO (1 Unit) @ 1.72

Talked about this one a bit back, no direct rain predictions and the odds on the safety car are dropping everywhere at the moment. A couple bookies still have the overpriced 1.72 odds which offer quite some value and are worth backing. available with betterbet / skybet

 

[Costanza]

Pick 65: Race Hamilton NOT to be classified (0.2 Units) @ 6.00

gonna keep this short since time is running out,
probably a long shot, but odds have some value in this spot in my view.
Hamilton having an accident yesterday is starting the race from 10th spot so al lot more chance for him to have an accident during the start of the race or during one of the overtaking actions. It is reported that he has no injury's but there might still be something that he might suffer from during the race. There will probably be no rain but there is still a chance on it to fall. So some of these facts make me take a small bet on hamilton to fail to be classiefied in the race. Everything has gone his way so far this year and it might be time for him to get unlucky in this race. 6.00 odds available at Stan James

 

[Costanza]

Pick 66: Race Sutil to be classified (1 Units) @ 2.00

even money on this bet looks worth taking, The spyker has allready proven to be able to finish a race and since things are not going very good with the Lap times and the car balance this weekend, their only goal for this race will be just to get to the Finish line. Sutil should be capable to finish this race and the 2.00 odds are available @ Bet365

 

[Costanza]

Pick 67: Race H2H Trulli vs R.Schumacher (1 Unit) @ 1.769

I still believe trulli is the better overall driver of the 2. He's starting 1 place in front but on the "dirty" side of the track. Schumacher is starting in 9th place with Hamilton behind him who will be looking to win at least a place during the start. Ralf tested his start a high amount of times during the spa testing last week, not sure if this will make such a difference though. Trulli should be able to finish in front of Ralf who so far has always found some way to mess thing up during the race. 1.769 odds available @ 5 Dimes

 

[MistaFlava]

Good luck man, hope you dont mind me posting. I took:


Scott Speed 1.99 over Vitantonio Liuzzi

Just think he is capable of building on success at this track in the past. It's almost inevitable that both Toro Rosso's are going to retire at some point but Speed is pumped about the race this week saying that his girlfriend is with him for the first time in three months and that he is motivated. Speed finished 11th here in 2006 and after two straight weeks of retirement, I think he can produce a good result and maybe actually finish the race for once (longshot but you never know). Liuzzi makes a lot of mistakes as a driver and he seems to always get caught up in the melees on the first turns of a race. I don't know why he's like that. Anyways, his car is capable of beating Speed's but I don't think he'll get the job done as he has never had a good handle on this racetrack. Speed should be able to stay ahead until they both shoot into retirement.


GL

 

[Costanza]

don't mind at all flava,
what a tough start with that rain shower after lap 1, will be a difficult and probably unprofitable GP

 

[MistaFlava]

Good luck man, hope you dont mind me posting. I took:


Scott Speed 1.99 over Vitantonio Liuzzi

Just think he is capable of building on success at this track in the past. It's almost inevitable that both Toro Rosso's are going to retire at some point but Speed is pumped about the race this week saying that his girlfriend is with him for the first time in three months and that he is motivated. Speed finished 11th here in 2006 and after two straight weeks of retirement, I think he can produce a good result and maybe actually finish the race for once (longshot but you never know). Liuzzi makes a lot of mistakes as a driver and he seems to always get caught up in the melees on the first turns of a race. I don't know why he's like that. Anyways, his car is capable of beating Speed's but I don't think he'll get the job done as he has never had a good handle on this racetrack. Speed should be able to stay ahead until they both shoot into retirement.


GL

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$


Thanks Costanza. Gotta love it when the wager is already done. Speed beaches right before the red flag and on the way by the turn, Liuzzi crashes into the removal tractor...LOL and they are both out of the race but Speed ranked ahead of Liuzzi. Correct me if I am wrong.

 

[Costanza]

nice call Flava,

Still can't get over the fact that Hamilton went wide in that corner just like so many others only to have the safety truck pull him up and put him back on the track instead of him retiring. Never seen such a thing in all my years watching F1. Not feeling up to it right now so I'll update the stats later on, a bit more then 1 unit lost on the weekend I guess. Really need to find a reliable source on the weather updates because it messed up everyting again.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 62: Race H2H Kovalainen vs Webber (1 Unit) @ 1.90 --> LOST (- 1.000 units)
Pick 63: Race Fastest Lap Kimi Raikkonen [-1/2 stake if Massa] (1 Unit) @ 2.188 --> LOST (- 0.500 units)
Pick 64: Race Safety Car during race = NO (1 Unit) @ 1.72 --> LOST (- 1.000 units)
Pick 65: Race Hamilton NOT to be classified (0.2 Units) @ 6.00 --> LOST (- 1.000 units)
Pick 66: Race Sutil to be classified (1 Unit) @ 2.00 --> LOST (- 1.000 units)
Pick 67: Race H2H Trulli vs R.Schumacher (1 Unit) @ 1.769 --> WON (+0.769 units)

Another one soon to forget
:nohead:

updated record:

Picks = 67 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 36 / 28 / 3 (56% winners)
Units Bet = 63 units
Units Return = 69.722 unit
Profit = +6.722 Units
ROI = +10,6 %

Race 10 Europe GP Record: 4 - 6| -1.231 Units (-23% ROI)
Race 09 British GP Record: 3 - 5| - 2.769 Units (-34.6% ROI)
Race 08 French GP Record: 1 - 5| - 4.599 Units (-70% ROI)
Race 07 US GP Record: 5 - 1| +5.500 Units (+73% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)