Costanza's Formula 1 Season 2007 Picks

[Costanza]

Pick 81: Race Fastest Lap Kimi Raikkonen [No Bet if Massa] @ 2.475 (1 Unit)

Ferrari was quite a bit slower in todays 2nd practice session mainly because they tested the car with a lot of fuel in the long runs and kimi had some technical problems and was only able to drive 12 laps. Ferrari was generally happy about the results today and feel confident about having a good pace during the race on Sunday. After last race the H2H between ferrari and Mclaren when it comes down to clocking the fastest lap is 9-3 in favor of Ferrari. I really believe that Kimi should be a much bigger favorite for this bet. Odds defenatly are influenced way too much by todays lap times. Another interesting thing is the fact that kimi really seems to be making a point of driving the fastest lap in the race. Clocking a really fast time in the last couple laps of the race like he's toying with it just for the fun of it. Ferrari should just like last week be able to get the fastest time and I'm counting on kimi who also clocked the fastest lap race time on the Monza Circuit the last 2 years. Still not ruling out Massa in the other ferrari and I'm taking him as a no bet safety.

0.75 Units on Kimi @ 3.30 (Bwin)
0.25 Units on Massa @ 4.00 (Bwin)

Making it 1 unit for kimi to get the fastest lap & No bet if it's Massa @ 2.475

 

[Costanza]

Pick 82: Qualif Top 10 Place Ralf Schumacher -> NO @ 2.00 (1 Unit)

This season the midfield has been extremely competitive. There is not much doubt that Ferrari, Mclaren and BMW are the top 3 teams who should always take their place inside the top 10 on the starting grid. Thas leaves us with 4 places left to be filled up. The Renaults have been looking strong last couple races and make good chance of making it to session 3. Rosberg has been solid all season long and also has a good chance to make it. This leaves 1 spot for basically 3 drivers (trulli / webber / Ralf )
Ralf hasn't really got very impressive stats on the Monza Circuit and was almost always slower there in qualif then his team mate. Even money for him not to make the top 10 in qualif looks like a bet worth taking. Odds available at Bet365

 

[Costanza]

I'm waiting for the Odds to come out for the qualif session which starts within 2 hours. Should be something interesting available

 

[Costanza]

Pick 83: Qualif H2H Liuzzi vs Vettel @ 2.00 ( 0.75 Unit)

Not sure why I decided to skip on the 2.30 odds that 5 Dimes was offering yesterday. Vettel hasn't been extremely stong during the 2 previous qualif sessions always making some kind of mistake. Confidence seems to he high now after being conciderably faster then team mate Liuzzi the entire weekend. Same reasons as previous vettel pick also count for this one. He should be faster if he manages to avoid making a mistake during his final qualif lap. 2.00 available at Bet365 (smaller stake mainly because I was stupid to miss out on better odds yesterday)

 

[Costanza]

Qualif Bets
Pick 82: Qualif Top 10 Place Ralf Schumacher -> NO @ 2.00 (1 Unit) --> WON (+ 1.000 units)
Pick 83: Qualif H2H Liuzzi vs Vettel @ 2.00 ( 0.75 Unit) --> WON (+ 0.750 units)

Schumacher did not get any closer then 18th place
Vettel in 11th place after Qualif session 1 was conciderably faster again then liuzzi who only got the 17th spot


updated record:

Picks = 82 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 46 / 33 / 3 (58,22% winners)
Units Bet = 79.45 units
Units Return = 91.860 unit
Profit = +12.410 Units
ROI = +15,62 %

Race 13 Italian GP Record: 3 - 0| +3.450 Units (+125% ROI)
Race 12 Turkish GP Record: 2 - 2| +0.205 Units (+4.1% ROI)
Race 11 Hongarian GP Record: 5 - 3| +1.968 Units (+21.8% ROI)
Race 10 Europe GP Record: 4 - 6| -1.231Units (-23% ROI)
Race 09 British GP Record: 3 - 5| - 2.769 Units (-34.6% ROI)
Race 08 French GP Record: 1 - 5| - 4.599 Units (-70% ROI)
Race 07 US GP Record: 5 - 1| +5.500 Units (+73% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

 

[Costanza]

haven't got much time right now but will defenatly have a look at what's available for tomorrows race later tonight.

 

[chriscol]

thx, i ll also have a look tomorrow before the race. hope our picks match. mercedes is looking dominant so far. i dont see that changed tomorrow,
Ralf Schumacher was talking on german tv that they have not a good car for this track the whole week and they dont think have much of a chance for a good result...maybe something to fade.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 84: Race Place after Lap 1 Trulli -> 9th or worse @ 2.31 (1 Unit)

Haven't really got much to say about this bet since it is really hard to find statistics on this subject. I just see value in this bet just by a couple logic toughts. The odds on Trulli who starts 9th on the grid to gain at least 1 place in the 1st lap of the race are set at 1.44. Sure he's starting from the "clean" side of the road which is an important factor but these odds are just too low. Rosberg & Kovalainen who I concider to be good pilots are starting in front of him. Haven't got that much knowledge about their starting capabilities but I do know that Trulli made a really bad start a couple races ago dropping quite some places. Also Button starting just behind him is known as a generally good starter. There are a couple overtaking possibilities in the chicanes and some places have a high risk factor when it comes down to collisions. So adding up all these factors I really don't see why Jarno Trulli would gain at least 1 place 70% of the time. 1.44 odds are too low so I'm happy to oppose them.

0.385 units on 9th place after Lap 1 @ 6.00 (bet365)
0.615 units on worse then 9th place after Lap 1 @ 3.75 (Bet365)

 

[Costanza]

Pick 85: Race H2H Sato vs Liuzzi @ 1.70 (1 Unit)

3th time this race weekend that I'm opposing Liuzzi who's not having very good results only being able to qualify in 19th place suffering from some traffic and a lack of top speed. This season he only managed to finish the race 3 times (a massive amount of 9 retirements) The H2H statistics against Sato are 10-2 in favor of Sato who has been quite reliable this season finishing 9 races. He's been faster then Liuzzi in every single session and is a driver that seems to be cut out for this type of fast low rear wing tracks. Monza is just like in Canada when it comes down to terms of high speed and low down force, sato was really impressive there taking points and overtaking Alonso at the end of the race. Sato missed the 2nd part of the qualif session by just a hundreth of a sec but is generally happy about the car and will start 2 places in front of Liuzzi in 17th place. I would really be surprised if Liuzzi could overtake Sato without something unfortunate happening. 1.70 odds are available at interwetten and defenatly worth the risk.

 

[chriscol]

unfortunately i have only access to the pinny matchups, so dont have too many "crazy" options.
that s what i am looking for.

Mercedes will win, but to have Alonso at 1.5 and Ham at 4.0 is a bit much between them.
i like Ham 4.0 in a two horse race.

Matchups.

Trulli over RS @ 1.41 starting from 9-18...only way i see a loss is Trulli goes out before RS

Vettel- Liuzzi : Vettel @1.67 it s my matchup of the day. Vettel very solid in comparison to his team-mate.

Rosberg- Wurz : Rosberg @1.45
Same here. Same car strting from 8-13..if Rosberg comes thru he should be ahead

Webber- DC: Webber @ 1.45
Same here. Same car, starting from 11-20..if Webber comes thru it should be easy.

it s risky to take the big favs, but i feel all just have to finish to be ahead of team-mate..any opinion on that..any care you feel like more dangerous to get out?

 

[chriscol]

how do you like Sato @2.45 over team mate Davidson
starting from 17-14, but it should not be too much between them and sato starting on better side.

 

[Costanza]

good luck with the bets, Mclaren should indeed take this one down but the 1.50 odds on alonso are just too short. in the last 15 years at monza, the driver on pole was only able to win 5 times. the season stats on The man stating from the pole are also against the odds on Alonso. His personal record is quite impressive also because of the extremely dominant period in the renault last season. I was thinking about going for Alonso not to win @ 2.65 but discided to skip it. Qualif was really close between him and hamilton 4.00 odds defenatly have some value even though the most logic result would be Alonso winning the race. There is also not that much reason for Hamilton to try any crazy moves since he's stilll ahead in the championchip and the point structure rewards drivers who manage to get a lot op top 3 places. Normally it's a 1 stop strategy in the race, so less chance of overtaking in the pits

Vettel really had come trough this weekend and he should be able to get the best of liuzzi. I'm usually carefull with the odds under ~1.60 for the race. I just hate it to lose those because of a safety car or a ritirement. I've also been thinking about the Sato vs Davidson Matchup, The odds are defenatly worth concidering since sato seems to be fit for these fast low down force tracks.

 

[Costanza]

Race Bets
Pick 81: Race Fastest Lap Kimi Raikkonen [No Bet if Massa] @ 2.475 (1 Unit) --> LOST (- 1.000 units)
Pick 84: Race Place after Lap 1 Trulli -> 9th or worse @ 2.31 (1 Unit) --> WON (+ 1.310 units)
Pick 85: Race H2H Sato vs Liuzzi @ 1.70 (1 Unit) --> WON (+ 0.700 units)

Kimi never had a chance to clock the fastest lap, Mclaren just too strong and with his crash yesterday he had to drive his spare car and use an engine from a couple races ago.
Trulli made another bad start and was around 13th after lap 1, Sato fell back for some reason after a couple laps but managed to get the best of liuzzi anyway.

updated record:

Picks = 85 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 48 / 34 / 3 (58,5% winners)
Units Bet = 82.45 units
Units Return = 95.870 unit
Profit = +13.420 Units
ROI = +16,27 %

Race 13 Italian GP Record: 5 - 1| +4.460 Units (+77.5% ROI)
Race 12 Turkish GP Record: 2 - 2| +0.205 Units (+4.1% ROI)
Race 11 Hongarian GP Record: 5 - 3| +1.968 Units (+21.8% ROI)
Race 10 Europe GP Record: 4 - 6| -1.231Units (-23% ROI)
Race 09 British GP Record: 3 - 5| - 2.769 Units (-34.6% ROI)
Race 08 French GP Record: 1 - 5| - 4.599 Units (-70% ROI)
Race 07 US GP Record: 5 - 1| +5.500 Units (+73% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

back next week with the belgian GP

 

[Costanza]

Belgian GP this weekend, early bet that I have had in mind since I went to the practice days more then a month ago will be online in a couple minutes

 

[Costanza]

Pick 86: Free Practice 1 H2H Kubica vs Heidfeld @ 2.20 (1.5 Units)

Nick Heidfeld was one of the only pilots who wasn't able to attend the testing days a bit more then a month ago on the Spa Francorchamps circuit. (because he had pain in his back at the time). Kubica had a full 3 days of testing on the circuit that was changed quite a bit. Bus Stop chicane is completely new and the 1st corner la scource after the start & finish line is also altered a bit. Kubica was able to test both wet & dry conditions on the track and got the 2nd best testing time at the end. Both drivers have been very close to eachother when it comes down to lap times. Kubica has defenatly got an edge in this 1st free practice and there is no reason why he should be the underdog. Heidfeld also hasn't got much overall experiance on the track, last time he raced there was in 2004 without a competitive car. The circuit also wasn't on the Formula 3 & Formula Ford calendar when he was driven in those. At the time when Kubica was driving F3 and Formula Ford, the circuit was on the calendar. So an overall huge difference in track experiance which defenatly is a big factor in the first session of the race weekend. Kubica should never be the underdog in this spot and I'm confident to make this a 1.5 unit bet.

 

[Costanza]

odds available at Bwin

 

[Costanza]

Pick 86: Free Practice 1 H2H Kubica vs Heidfeld @ 2.20 (1.5 Units) --> LOST (- 1.500 units)

kubica did not come trough during the first session unfortunately,
will probably take the rest of the GP weekend off, haven't got the time to go trough all the odds and bets in great detail so I'll just pass for now. I will keep an eye open for interesting news and weather updates though.

updated record:

Picks = 86 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 48 / 35 / 3 (57,8% winners)
Units Bet = 82.95 units
Units Return = 95.870 unit
Profit = +11.920 Units
ROI = +15,57 %

Race 14 Belgian GP Record: 0 - 1| -1.500 Units (-100% ROI)
Race 13 Italian GP Record: 5 - 1| +4.460 Units (+77.5% ROI)
Race 12 Turkish GP Record: 2 - 2| +0.205 Units (+4.1% ROI)
Race 11 Hongarian GP Record: 5 - 3| +1.968 Units (+21.8% ROI)
Race 10 Europe GP Record: 4 - 6| -1.231Units (-23% ROI)
Race 09 British GP Record: 3 - 5| - 2.769 Units (-34.6% ROI)
Race 08 French GP Record: 1 - 5| - 4.599 Units (-70% ROI)
Race 07 US GP Record: 5 - 1| +5.500 Units (+73% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

 

[Costanza]

Pick 87: Qualif H2H Vettel vs Liuzzi @ 1.72 (1 Unit)

Haven't really looked into this one closer but feel it is good value. I've backed Vettel before and it seems that he's really starting to get the best of his team mate from now on. I have a feeling that he'll be another rosberg/webber vs team mate. Odds at Bet365
Hope I won't regret this impulsive bet =)

 

[Costanza]

Pick 87: Qualif H2H Vettel vs Liuzzi @ 1.72 (1 Unit) --> LOST (- 1.000 units)

0.005 seconds was the differnce between a winner and a loser,
anyhow not making any more impulsive bets.

updated record:

Picks = 87 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 48 / 36 / 3 (57,1% winners)
Units Bet = 83.95 units
Units Return = 95.870 unit
Profit = +10.920 Units
ROI = +14,19 %

Race 14 Belgian GP Record: 0 - 2| -2.500 Units (-100% ROI)
Race 13 Italian GP Record: 5 - 1| +4.460 Units (+77.5% ROI)
Race 12 Turkish GP Record: 2 - 2| +0.205 Units (+4.1% ROI)
Race 11 Hongarian GP Record: 5 - 3| +1.968 Units (+21.8% ROI)
Race 10 Europe GP Record: 4 - 6| -1.231Units (-23% ROI)
Race 09 British GP Record: 3 - 5| - 2.769 Units (-34.6% ROI)
Race 08 French GP Record: 1 - 5| - 4.599 Units (-70% ROI)
Race 07 US GP Record: 5 - 1| +5.500 Units (+73% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

 

[Costanza]

I've got some spare time at the moment, looking at some possible bets for the chinese GP at the moment.