Costanza's Formula 1 Season 2007 Picks

[Costanza]

Going 2-2 this race having to put up with a lot of bullshit again.

Starting place on the grid was by far one of the most important factors this race. As good as every single car on the dirty side of the track lost places during the 1st lap. Having Trulli & Rosberg moved to that side because the penalty that Alonso/Fisico got, messed everything up and made the entire idea behind the pick work against them. Not much to do about it then to move on to the next race I guess. Will update the statistics later on.

 

[Costanza]

Wow, The 2 unit bet on alonso was voided a first a couple hours before the race, but they now payed it out at Bwin some how.

I'm going to wait a bit longer to adjust the stats incase they take it back again.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 68: Qualif H2H Vettel vs Liuzzi (1 Unit) @ 2.00 --> LOST (- 1.000 units)
Pick 69: Qualif H2H Rosberg+Webber vs Wurz+Coultard (1 Unit) @ 1.89 --> WON (+0.890 units)
Pick 70: Qualif H2H Vettel vs Liuzzi ( 0.7 Units) @ 1.95 --> WON (+0.665 units)
Pick 71: Race H2H R.Schumacher vs N. Rosberg (1 Unit) @ 1.66 --> LOST (- 1.000 units)
Pick 72: Race H2H M. Webber vs J. Trulli (1 Unit) @ 1.833 --> LOST (- 1.000 units)
Pick 73: Race H2H Fisichella vs Kubica (1 Unit) @ 1.588 --> WON (+0.588 units)
Pick 74: Race winner Alonso -> NOT (2 Units) @ 2.00 --> WON (+2.000 units)
Pick 75: Race H2H Fisichella vs Kovalainen (Kova not classified = No Bet) @ 1.840 (1 Unit) --> WON (+0.840 units)

updated record:

Picks = 75 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 41 / 31 / 3 (56,94% winners)
Units Bet = 71.7 units
Units Return = 80.455 unit
Profit = +8.755 Units
ROI = +11,15 %

Race 11 Hongarian GP Record: 5 - 3| +1.968 Units (+21.8% ROI)
Race 10 Europe GP Record: 4 - 6| -1.231Units (-23% ROI)
Race 09 British GP Record: 3 - 5| - 2.769 Units (-34.6% ROI)
Race 08 French GP Record: 1 - 5| - 4.599 Units (-70% ROI)
Race 07 US GP Record: 5 - 1| +5.500 Units (+73% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

back in 2 weeks for more F1 action

 

[Costanza]

Turkish GP weekend is about to start, going to trough some facts and odds tonight hoping to find something valuable.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 76: Free Practice 1 H2H Liuzzi vs Vettel @ 1.900 (1 Unit)

I'm kicking myself at the moment after missing out on the better 2.00 odds that were available less then an hour ago when I allready had descided to go for this bet. Still see good value and my tought on this one have been comfirmed in some way. Going for Vettel once again in this spot, he allready has some F1 experiance from last years practice sessions where he actually managed to drive the fastest time. Also last race during the 1st practice session, Vettel was able to clock a faster laptime then his team mate and this the first time he drove the Toro Rosso car. During the 2 previous race weekends in turkey, Liuzzi also wasn't able to get ahead of his team mates in the 1st free practice session. The circuit is very fast and techical which suits the more talented drivers. Since the stats are in favor and I believe that Vettel has wey more talent then Liuzzi I'm going to place a wager on Vettel in the H2H for the first free practice. (Bwin)

 

[Costanza]

Pick 77: Race Fastest Lap for Ferrari @ 1.955 (1 Unit)

Huge odds on this one and I should make it a 1.5 unit bet but I'm chosing to be a bit carefull because of the summer break which could have a bit surprising results. Ferrari is expected to be strong in Turkey on a circuit that should suit them. They are generally good when it comes down to racing conditions and have been able to clock the fastest lap during the race 8 times out of 11 so far. The team also sounds confident for this weekends race. Much better and more detailed write-up is to be found http://f1punter.wordpress.com !

only avaialble at Bwin
0.592 units on Kimi for fastest lap @ 3.30
0.408 units on Massa for fastest lap @ 4.80

 

[Costanza]

Free Practice 1 Bets
Pick 76: Free Practice 1 H2H Liuzzi vs Vettel @ 1.900 (1 Unit) --> LOST (- 1.000 units)

Vettel unable to get in front of his team mate during the 1st race day unfortunately

updated record:

Picks = 76 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 41 / 32 / 3 (56,94% winners)
Units Bet = 72.7 units
Units Return = 80.455 unit
Profit = +7.755 Units
ROI = +10,41 %

Race 12 Turkish GP Record: 0 - 1| -1.000 Units (-100% ROI)
Race 11 Hongarian GP Record: 5 - 3| +1.968 Units (+21.8% ROI)
Race 10 Europe GP Record: 4 - 6| -1.231Units (-23% ROI)
Race 09 British GP Record: 3 - 5| - 2.769 Units (-34.6% ROI)
Race 08 French GP Record: 1 - 5| - 4.599 Units (-70% ROI)
Race 07 US GP Record: 5 - 1| +5.500 Units (+73% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

I'm gonna have a look if there's something interesting available for the qualif session later tonight.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 78: Qualif H2H Coultard vs Webber @ 1.550 (1 Unit)

This bet is based on impressive stats that are in favor of Mark Webber. Because he didn't really feel good in his car today, webber cloced a slower time than his team mate on the 1st race day. The influence of this fact on the odds is way to much in my view. It has happend quite a couple times allready that DC was faster then his team mate on friday but has been dominating David Coultard the entire year during the qualif sessions. A massive 10-1 H2H record all of them being remarkable faster and only once failing to get ahead because he got in some kind of trouble. In the 2 previous Turkish GP's, Webber both managed to drive a good qualif sessions, DC on the other hand didn't manage to get in the best of his team mate Christian Klien back then. the 1.55 odds are an overreaction of the oddsmakers on Webber not managing to put up a good performance in the first 2 practice sessions who should not always be taken that serious. I still rate him as the best 1 fast lap Qualification driver and can only see bad luck getting in the way of winning this bet. 1.55 odds are available at Nordicbet !

 

[Costanza]

I'm planning to do a little study on statistics concerning saturdays free practice results in relation to the qualification results. Some bookmakers put H2H odds online an hour before the qualif session. If there are soms striking facts it might be interesting to know in order to find valueble bets.

 

[Costanza]

Bet24 is offering 1.70 odds on the Webber H2H which is a crazy price compared to any other bookie. The bet can even be taken with guarantueed profit when taking the counter 2.70 odds on coultard.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 79: Qualif H2H Coultard vs Webber @ 1.700 (1 Unit)

I'm making this a 2 unit bet, Webber his problem of handling his car has apperantly been solved and he was faster today during todays practice session. Massive 1.70 odds are still available @ Bet24
Win or lose, this is a +EV bet and I'm glad to take it for an extra unit

 

[Costanza]

Qualif Bet
Pick 78: Qualif H2H Coultard vs Webber @ 1.625 (2 Units)

Webber got ahead of DC as expected making it 11-1 in this seasons H2H confrontations.

updated record:

Picks = 78 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 42 / 32 / 3 (56% winners)
Units Bet = 74.7 units
Units Return = 83.705 unit
Profit = +9.005 Units
ROI = +12,05 %

Race 12 Turkish GP Record: 1 - 1| +0.250 Units (+8.3% ROI)
Race 11 Hongarian GP Record: 5 - 3| +1.968 Units (+21.8% ROI)
Race 10 Europe GP Record: 4 - 6| -1.231Units (-23% ROI)
Race 09 British GP Record: 3 - 5| - 2.769 Units (-34.6% ROI)
Race 08 French GP Record: 1 - 5| - 4.599 Units (-70% ROI)
Race 07 US GP Record: 5 - 1| +5.500 Units (+73% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

 

[Costanza]

Pick 79: Race H2H Button vs Barichello @ 1.720 (1 Unit)

Not much to explain here, Button had to change his engine and was put back 10 places on the starting grid. Barichello managed to qualify 1 place in front of his team mate and starts from 14th place which is 8 places in front of Button. Even though the Turkish circuit is a track where overtaking is possible, It will be very difficult for button to win this H2H without Barrichello getting in some kind of trouble. Barichello is driving with an old engine, but I'm not sure how much extra risk that gives him for technical problems. Ladbrokes has 1.72 odds available which seems to be worth to take if Barrichello has around 62% chance or more to finish in front of his team mate which seems to be the case in this spot.

 

[chriscol]

any opinion on the top 4 drivers or is it simply too risky for predictions with the chance of overtaking?

 

[Costanza]

Just awake, havn't even been able to see the Race start.
I usually don't bet outright winners unless the value is undeniable. Can't really give an opinion now because the race is allready halfway. Massa has an extremely good record when it comes down to winning races from Pole Position so would defenatly onvolve hin in case I would have made an outright bet.

another smack in the face on the Barrichello H2H, Before the race was announced that he also changed his engine and was put back to the last place. Edge en Button was completely gone and unless it gets lucky now it will probably lose.

Ferrari is looking good to get the fastest lap though.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 77: Race Fastest Lap for Ferrari @ 1.955 (1 Unit) --> WON (+ 0.955 units)
Pick 79: Race H2H Button vs Barichello @ 1.720 (1 Unit) --> LOST (- 1.000 units)

updated record:

Picks = 79 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 43 / 33 / 3 (56,5% winners)
Units Bet = 76.7 units
Units Return = 85.660 unit
Profit = +8.960 Units
ROI = +11,68 %

Race 12 Turkish GP Record: 2 - 2| +0.205 Units (+4.1% ROI)
Race 11 Hongarian GP Record: 5 - 3| +1.968 Units (+21.8% ROI)
Race 10 Europe GP Record: 4 - 6| -1.231Units (-23% ROI)
Race 09 British GP Record: 3 - 5| - 2.769 Units (-34.6% ROI)
Race 08 French GP Record: 1 - 5| - 4.599 Units (-70% ROI)
Race 07 US GP Record: 5 - 1| +5.500 Units (+73% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

Back in a couple weeks with the Italian GP

 

[Costanza]

Italian GP this weekend, Going to have a close look into things tonight.
should have something later today

 

[Costanza]

Pick 80: Free Practice 1 H2H Liuzzi vs Vettel @ 2.700 (1 Unit)

Even though I've lost this H2H bet twice before, I'm convinced that these odds are way too high and that this is something around a coin flip.

Some reasons in favor of Vettel clocking the best time:
* I honestly believe he's the more talented driver
* H2H so far in 1st free practice = 1-1 (in favor of higer odds)
* Vettel should have more excperiance in the Toro Rosso car by now
* He also was albe to drive the car on the Monza circuit during the testing days last weekend.
* He Clocked a better time then liuzzi during those testing days
(01:24:760 for liuzzi / 01:24:266 for Vettel)
* He managed to get the fastest lap during last years free practice sessions.

Some Reasons in favor of Liuzzi
* he's got more experiance
* he has a strong H2H record this year vs Speed (7-3 in favor of Liuzzi, last year 11-7 for speed)
* he was just faster then Vettel in every single session last race.
* Vettel has only been faster then him in Hungary GP during free practice session 1 & during the Race.

Adding up all these facts I believe that this H2H should be something around a coin flip and I'm willing to risk losing yet again a unit betting on Vettel for these 2.70 odds that Bwin are offering.

 

[Costanza]

Free Practice 1 Bets
Pick 80: Free Practice 1 H2H Liuzzi vs Vettel @ 2.700 (1 Unit) --> WON (+ 1.700 units)

Excellent start of the race weekend!
Finally Vettel is comming trough being around 0.400 sec faster then his team mate Liuzzi.

updated record:

Picks = 80 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 44 / 33 / 3 (57,14% winners)
Units Bet = 77.7 units
Units Return = 88.360 unit
Profit = +10.660 Units
ROI = +13,72 %

Race 13 Italian GP Record: 1 - 0| +1.700 Units (+170% ROI)
Race 12 Turkish GP Record: 2 - 2| +0.205 Units (+4.1% ROI)
Race 11 Hongarian GP Record: 5 - 3| +1.968 Units (+21.8% ROI)
Race 10 Europe GP Record: 4 - 6| -1.231Units (-23% ROI)
Race 09 British GP Record: 3 - 5| - 2.769 Units (-34.6% ROI)
Race 08 French GP Record: 1 - 5| - 4.599 Units (-70% ROI)
Race 07 US GP Record: 5 - 1| +5.500 Units (+73% ROI)
Race 06 Canada GP Record: 7 - 2| +3.806 Units (+38% ROI)
Race 05 Monaco GP Record: 1 - 1| - 0.200 Units (-10% ROI)
Race 04 Spain GP Record: 4 - 2| + 1.297 Units (+22% ROI)
Race 03 Bahrain GP Record: 4 - 1| +2.700 Units (+75% ROI)
Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

 

[Costanza]

will have a look at all the available odds tonight hopeing to find something interesting for the Qualif session tomorrow