Cnotes NL 2024-2025 Schedule, Best Bets, Opinons, News !

Search

Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2022
Messages
141
Tokens
 Logo
Thursday, Nov. 28
8:20pm ET on NBC
Tua Tagovailoa vs. Jordan Love
 Logo

Packers' Thanksgiving Legacy​

➤Packers have played on Thanksgiving eight times since 2000. They are 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS. Green Bay beat the Lions as big underdogs last year – the 2nd-biggest upset on Thanksgiving since 1980.

This will be just the 2nd time Green Bay plays at home on Thanksgiving in the last 100 years. They lost in 2015 at home vs. the Bears. Green Bay last won at home on Thanksgiving back in 1923 under coach Curly Lambeau against the Hammond Pros.

Thanksgiving Night Unders Trend​

➤Unders in Thanksgiving night games are 11-6 since 2006, going under the total by 4.2 PPG. When the total is 43 or higher, they are 8-3 to the under in that span.

Favorites Thrive in Thanksgiving Night Games​

➤Favorites in night games on Thanksgiving are 13-4 ATS since they started the 3-game holiday series back in 2006.

Dolphins' Perfect Thanksgiving ATS Record​

➤This will be the Dolphins first game on Thanksgiving since 2011, when they faced the Cowboys. Since 2000, Miami has played three Thanksgiving games, they are 3-0 ATS in those games.

LaFleur’s Short Rest Challenges​

➤Matt LaFleur has coached 14 total games with the Packers where they are on short rest. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS as an underdog and 2-6 ATS as a favorite. They are 6-1 ATS on the road and just 1-6 ATS at home in Lambeau.

Jordan Love has played two home games on short rest with Green Bay, losing exactly 34-20 in both games vs. Lions and Bucs.

NFC North's Dominance ATS​

➤The NFC North is now 23-11 ATS (68%) entering Week 13 — the 3rd-best ATS win pct for any division through 12 weeks in the Wild Card era (since 1990), behind the 2022 and 2016 NFC East.

Jordan Love’s Mixed Results as a Favorite​

➤The role as a favorite hasn’t been too kind to Jordan Love. Love is 5-7 ATS as a favorite in his short career and 10-7 ATS as an underdog.

Love has played at home 13 times, he is just 7-6 ATS, but when a warm weather team comes to GB – ARI, HOU, LA, NO, SF, TB – he is 5-2 ATS, covering the spread by over 5 PPG.

Dolphins Face Chilling Lambeau Conditions​

➤Average temperature in Lambeau Field Thursday night is expected to be just under 30°, with about 7-10 MPH winds.

Tua has played in 40° temperatures or colder four times with the Dolphins, Miami is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 18 PPG.

In the 3 of those 4 games that also had wind, Tua has scored 39 total pts in 3 games.

Last 20 years, Dolphins have played 27 total games in 40° temperatures or colder, they are 8-19 SU, including 1-10 SU in their last 11 games.

In 32° temperatures or colder in franchise history, they are 11-28 SU, including losing their last nine games in cold temperatures, since beating the Steelers in 2013 behind Ryan Tannehill.

Tua’s Night Game Struggles​

➤Tua Tagovailoa has played in 13 night games (5-8 SU, 4-9 ATS), 2 morning games (0-2 SU/ATS) and one Friday game (1-0 SU/ATS) in his career – a total of 16 “primetime” or standalone games. He is 6-10 SU, 5-11 ATS in those games.

Overall, Tua has struggled overall in night games. He’s 4-9 ATS in his career and he’s never covered consecutive night games within the same season – which is notable since he covered vs. Rams at night in his last start earlier this season.

Tua vs. Winning Teams in Night Games​

➤Tua has faced nine teams at 50% win pct or higher in night games, he is 3-6 SU/ATS, going 1-6 SU in his last 7 games, including 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in night games vs. teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher.

On the road or a neutral site, Tua has started 13 games vs. teams above .500, he is 2-11 SU and 4-8-1 ATS, losing 8 consecutive games outright.

Tua’s Travel Time Zone Troubles​

➤In November, Tua won and covered on the road in L.A. vs. the Rams. He’s never covered in two straight games outside of EST in his career.

Tua by time zone: 29-16-1 ATS in EST | 4-7 ATS all other time zones
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
105,970
Tokens

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
CHI at DET12:30 PMCHI +10.0
U 47.5
+500 +500
NYG at DAL04:30 PMDAL -3.5
U 37.5
+500 +500
MIA at GB08:20 PMGB -3.0
O 47.5
+500 +500
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
105,970
Tokens
NFL BEST BETS FOR NOVEMBER !

11/28/2024.....................3 - 2 - 0.....................60.00%.....................+ 4.00
11/25/2024.....................2 - 0 - 0..................100.00%......................+ 10.00
11/24/2024...................10 - 7 - 0....................58.82%......................+ 16.50
11/21/2024.....................2 - 0 - 0..................100.00%......................+ 10.00
11/17/2024...................10 - 8 - 0....................55.55%......................+ 6.00
11/14/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/11/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/10/2024...................3 - 14 - 0.....................17.64%......................- 62.00
11/07/2024......................2 - 0 - 0...................100.00%......................+ 10.00
11/04/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/03/2024.....................9 - 5 - 1.....................64.28%......................+ 17.50

TOTALS........................44 - 39 - 1.....................53.01%......................-+ 10.50
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
105,970
Tokens
Friday’s 6-pack:
NBA leaders in scoring:
32.4— Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milw
31.1— LaMelo Ball, Char
29.7— Nikola Jokic, /den
29.5— Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC
29.2— Anthony Davis, LAL
28.4— Jayson Tatum, Bos

Quote of the Day
“I’m focused on getting everyone back and getting everyone lined up. I don’t have a microphone, so there is no communication with coach there. We could have taken a timeout, but if we hit that play, no one would be worried about it.”
Bears QB Caleb Williams, talking about the end of Thursday’s 23-20 loss

Friday’s quiz
Arizona State coach Bobby Hurley scored 3.8 ppg in his five-year NBA career; who did he play most of his career with?

Thursday’s quiz
Hall of Fame QB Johnny Unitas played 18 years in the NFL, the first 17 for the Baltimore Colts; he played for the Chargers in his last season.

Wednesday’s quiz
Detroit Lions beat the Vikings 16-13 in 2016, the last time Detroit won on Thanksgiving Day.

*************************************************

Friday’s Den: NBA trends…….

NBA trends (thru Thursday, November 28)

Hawks (8-11):
— 1-3 SU in their last four games.
— 4-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Over 7-2 at home

Celtics (15-3):
— won last six games SU.
— 0-7 ATS last seven home games.
— over 5-2 last seven games.

Nets (9-10):
— won four of their last five games SU.
— 11-4 ATS as an underdog.
— over 6-3 last nine games

Hornets (6-12):
— lost seven of last nine games SU.
— 7-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— )-3 ATS if they played the night before
— under 5-2 last seven home games.

Bulls (8-12)
— 3-3 SU in last sis games.
— 8-10 ATS as an underdog.
— over 6-2-1 last nine games
— 1-4 ATS if they played the night before.

Cavaliers (17-2):
— 2-2 SU last four games.
— 8-3 ATS as a home favorite, 4-0 as a road underdog.
— over 6-1 last seven games.
— 3-0 ATS if they played the night before.

Mavericks (11-8):
— 6-1 last seven games SU.
— 5-2-1 ATS as an underdog.
— over 6-0 last six games
— 3-0 ATS if they played the night before.

Nuggets (10-7):
— 3-4 SU last seven games
— 3-8-1 ATS as a favorite.
— over 7-0 last seven home games.

Pistons (8-12):
— 1-4 last five games SU.
— 7-5 ATS as underdogs, 4-2 at home.
— over 3-1 last four games

Warriors (12-6):
— lost last three games SU, by 10-8-4 points.
— 5-1 ATS as an underdog
— 2-5 ATS last seven games.
— under 5-1 last six games

Rockets (14-6):
— won nine of last 11 games SU
— 7-3 ATS as a home favorite, 4-1 as an underdog.
— over 5-3 last eight games

Pacers (9-10):
— 3-0 SU in their last three games.
— 1-7-1 ATS in last nine games.
— over 6-2 last eight games.

Clippers (12-8):
— won six of last seven games SU
— 7-4 ATS at home.
— 5-2 ATS as a favorite
— under 5-2 last seven games.

Lakers (11-7):
— 1-3 SU last four games/1-5 ATS last six games
— 3-6 ATS on road.
— under 3-0 last three games.

Grizzlies (12-7):
— won last four games SU, scoring 128.3 ppg.
— 6-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— over 6-2 last eight games

Heat (8-8):
— 3-1 SU last four games.
— 2-5 ATS at home
— under 3-1 last four games.

Famous birthdays, November 29th:
Howie Mandel, 69
Cathy Moriarty, 64
Andrew McCarthy, 62
Don Cheadle, 60
TJ Rubley, 56
Pedro Martinez, 56
Mariano Rivera, 55
Jamal Mashburn, 52
Russell Wilson, 36
Stefon Diggs, 31
Julius Randle, 30
MJ Melendez, 26

Bucks (9-9):
— won last five games SU.
— 4-2-1 ATS last seven games as home favorite.
— under 11-5 last 16 games.
— 0-3-1 ATS if they played the night before

Timberwolves (8-10)
— 0-4 SU last four games.
— 2-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— over 5-2-1 last eight home games.

Pelicans (4-15):
— lost six in row, 12 of last 13 games SU
— 1-8 SU/ATS on the road.
— under 6-2 last eight games.

Knicks (10-8):
— 5-2 SU last seven games.
— 5-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— over 6-2 last eight games.

Thunder (14-4):
— won three in row, 6-2 in last 8 games SU
— 5-3 ATS on road.
— under 5-2 last seven games

Magic (13-7):
— won four in row, 10 of last 11 games SU.
— 8-1 ATS as home favorite, 2-5 as road underdog.
— over 3-1 last four games.

76ers (3-14):
— 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS last eight games
— 1-5 ATS as favorite, 3-8 as underdogs.
— over 3-1 last four games

Suns (10-8):
— lost six of last seven games SU
— 1-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— over 6-3 last nine games

Trailblazers (7-12):
— 1-4 SU last five games.
— 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— under 6-1 last seven games

Kings (9-10):
— 1-4 SU last five games, 1-6 ATS last seven.
— 0-4 ATS as home underdogs.
— under 3-1-1 last five games

Spurs (10-9):
— 4-1 SU in last five games
— 1-4 ATS as a road underdog, 5-3 as a home dog.
— under 4-2 last six games

Raptors (5-14):
— 3-2 SU in last five games.
— 6-2 ATS as home dog, 7-4 as road dog.
— under 9-2 last eleven games

Jazz (4-14):
— 1-6 SU/3-4 ATS last seven games.
— 3-5 ATS as home underdog, 4-5 as road dog.
— over 3-1 last four road games.

Wizards (2-15):
— 0-13 SU/2-10-1 ATS last 13 games
— 2-7 ATS as home dog, 2-5-1 as road dog
— under 3-1 last six games.
 

Member
Joined
Jun 22, 2009
Messages
18,736
Tokens
NFL
Weather Report

Friday, November 29


wGr78gV.png





NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 13

Friday’s game
Raiders
@ Chiefs (-10.5)
Raiders (2-9)
QB Minshew is OFY; O’Connell/Ridder are QB’s now.
Raiders are 0-7 SU/2-5 ATS in last seven games
Raiders have 22 turnovers in 11 games (minus-17).
Raiders are 5-2 ATS last seven AFC West home games.
Team total: over 7-4
Opponents’ team total: over 8-3


Raiders are 2-4 ATS this season as a road underdog.
In 4 of last 7 games, Raiders gave up 20+ points, just in 2nd half.
QB O’Connell is 5-7 as an NFL starter, Ridder 8-9.
Over is 8-2 in their last ten games.
Last eight games, Raiders averaged 5.8 or fewer yards/pass attempt.
Las Vegas is 17-22-1 ATS in last 39 games coming off a loss.
Raiders are 9-8 ATS in last 17 AFC West road games.


Chiefs (10-1)
Chiefs are 10-1, but they’re 0-5 ATS last five games.
Kansas City has only one win this year by more than 10 points.
Chiefs are 11-20 ATS in last 31 games coming off a win.
Chiefs ran for 165 yards LW, their 2nd-best yardage this year.
Team total: over 5-2 last seven
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1 last five


Chiefs are 16-20 ATS in last 36 games as a home favorite.
QB Mahomes is 100-26 as an NFL starter.
Chiefs are 4-9 ATS last 13 AFC West home games.
Chiefs have only two takeaways in last five games (minus-2).
Chiefs are 8-0 in games decided by 7 or less points.
Four of Chiefs’ last five games went over the total.


Chiefs (-8) won 27-20 in Las Vegas in Week 8
Chiefs won 16 of last 19 series games.
Raiders are 2-7 SU/4-5 ATS in last nine visits to Arrowhead.
Over is 7-2 in last nine meetings.
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
105,970
Tokens

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
LV at KC03:00 PMLV +13.5
O 42.5
+500 +500
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
105,970
Tokens
NFL BEST BETS FOR NOVEMBER !

11/29/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0...................50.00%....................- 0.50
11/28/2024.....................3 - 2 - 0...................60.00%....................+ 4.00
11/25/2024.....................2 - 0 - 0..................100.00%....................+ 10.00
11/24/2024...................10 - 7 - 0....................58.82%....................+ 16.50
11/21/2024.....................2 - 0 - 0..................100.00%....................+ 10.00
11/17/2024...................10 - 8 - 0....................55.55%....................+ 6.00
11/14/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%...................- 0.50
11/11/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%...................- 0.50
11/10/2024...................3 - 14 - 0.....................17.64%....................- 62.00
11/07/2024......................2 - 0 - 0...................100.00%...................+ 10.00
11/04/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%....................- 0.50
11/03/2024.....................9 - 5 - 1.....................64.28%....................+ 17.50

TOTALS........................45 - 40 - 1.....................52.94%................... + 10.00
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
105,970
Tokens
Saturday’s 6-pack:
Six highest-rated leagues in college basketball:
— SEC
— Big X
— Big 18
— Big East
— ACC
— Mountain West

Quote of the Day
“I mean, we just hold ourselves to such a high standard. We don’t feel like we’re playing our best football. We have to find a way to build up to play great (as) a full, entire team. It’s awesome that we’re finding ways to get wins. That’s what you’re going for. But our goal is to get to the Super Bowl.”
Patrick Mahomes

Saturday’s quiz
USC basketball coach Eric Musselman was also head coach for which two NBA teams?

Friday’s quiz
Arizona State coach Bobby Hurley scored 3.8 ppg in his five-year NBA career; he played most of his career with the Sacramento Kings.

Thursday’s quiz
Hall of Fame QB Johnny Unitas played 18 years in the NFL, the first 17 for the Baltimore Colts; he played for the Chargers in his last season.

*************************************

Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy couple days……..

— Does winning the Maui Classic help you in the NCAA Tournament? Winning three games in three days in November; obviously, it helps your seeding, but how have the teams who have done well in Maui done in March?
I looked at the teams who played in the finals at Maui since 2000……..
4 teams who won the Maui Classic also won the national title, but North Carolina was three of those four teams (2005, 2009, 2017). UConn was the 4th team, in 2011.
Three other teams won the Maui Classic but lost in the Final Four; Arizona (2001), UCLA (2007), Purdue (last year).
2017-18 Notre Dame team is only Maui Classic champ that missed the NCAA’s; of the last 23 Maui champs, 18 won at least one NCAA Tourney game- those 18 teams went 12-6 in their second round game, so 12 of 23 Maui champs made the Sweet 16.

— Of the last 23 teams to lose the final at Maui, only two (Kentucky 2010/Kansas 2011) made it to the Final Four- neither won the national title.
The last 13 Maui runner-ups made the NCAA’s; those teams went 10-3 in their first round NCAA game, 7-3 in their second round game.
Auburn beat Memphis in this year’s Maui final; expect to hear a lot from those teams in March.

Lions 23, Bears 20
Bears in first half: 19 plays, 38 yards, trailed 16-0 at halftime.
Bears in second half: 40 plays, 259 yards, 20 points.
Chicago had ball on Lions’ 25-yard line on last drive, but didn’t score.
Bears lost last six games, four of then by 3 or fewer points.
Detroit’s first five drives: 61 plays, 352 yards, 2 TD’s, 3 FG’s.
Lions ran ball for 194 yards, outgained Chicago 405-301.
Detroit won its last ten games (8-2 ATS).
Detroit snapped a 7-game losing streak on Thanksgiving Day.

— Bears fired their offensive coordinator two weeks ago; Friday, they fired head coach Matt Eberflus, despite the improvement shown by rookie QB Caleb Williams. Eberflus was 14-32 as coach of the Bears, 4-7 this season, but Williams hasn’t thrown an INT in his last 232 passes.
This is the first time ever that the Bears fired their coach during a season.

Cowboys 27, Giants 20
Cowboys won their first home game in six tries this season.
Dallas was 7-15 on third down, Giants 3-12
Cowboys are 9-0 SU/7-2 ATS in last nine games against the Giants.
Backup QB Cooper Rush is 7-3 as an NFL starter.
Giants are 0-7 SU/ATS in their last seven games.
Last seven games, Giants were outscored 97-29 in first half.
Giants averaged only 3.4 yards/pass attempt.
Dallas outgained the Giants, 317-247.

Packers 30, Dolphins 17
Green Bay led this game 24-3 at halftime.
Miami is 0-6 when it gives up 20+ points, 5-1 if they allow less.
Tagovailoa threw for 365 yards; they ran 14 times for only 39 yards.
Loss snaps Miami’s four-game-winning streak.
Green Bay in first half: 34 plays, 203 yards, 24 points.
Packers won seven of last eight games (2-4 ATS in last six).
Green Bay is 8-0 when they allow less than 24 points.
Packers are 21-15-1 ATS in last 37 games coming off a win.

Chiefs 19, Raiders 17
Chiefs scored only one TD, were outgained 434-329.
Chiefs were 7-16 on third down, Las Vegas 3-12.
Raiders are now 0-8 SU/3-5 ATS in last eight games.
Rookie TE Bowers caught 10 passes for 140 yards and a TD.
Chiefs are 11-1; they’re also 0-6 ATS last six games.
Raiders have 23 turnovers in 12 games (minus-18).
Chiefs are 16-21 ATS in last 37 games as a home favorite.
Kansas City’s new kicker Wright made four field goals.

— LA Dodgers signed utility guy Tommy Edman to a 5-year, $74M deal; Edman hit .328 in the postseason for LA this past year, scoring 12 runs with 13 RBI in 16 games.
His career hitting stats are very ordinary, but he’s versatile defensively and that is important in modern baseball.

— Tomorrow’s den will be all about college football, but this game was notable:

Georgia 44, Georgia Tech 42 OT
17-point underdog Tech led this game 17-0 at halftime.
Georgia scored two TD’s in last 3:39 to force overtime.
Dawgs are now 20-3 in their last 23 games against Tech; Yellow Jackets covered last three.

Famous birthdays, November 29:
Jim Chones, 75
Bo Jackson, 62
Ben Stiller, 59
Marcellus Wiley, 50
Andrés Nocioni, 45
Shane Victorino, 44
Rich Harden, 43
Elisha Cuthbert, 42
Kaley Cuoco, 39

— Oklahoma 69, Louisville 64
Oklahoma wins Battle for Atlantis, winning by 2-5-5 points.
Sooners start four seniors; experience matters.
Cardinals shot 7-32 on the arc, 9-16 on foul line.

— West Virginia 83, Arizona 76 OT
Mountaineers win 3rd place game at Atlantis; all three games they played there this week went to overtime.
Mountaineers are #73 in experience, #356 in continuity- lot of transfers. One of their best players is the coach’s son, who came with his dad from Drake, which was 59-17 in the MVC the last four years.

— Pitt 91, Ohio State 90 OT
Panthers hit a 3-pointer in transition at the buzzer for the walk-off win.
Ohio State led by 12 early in second half.
Buckeyes shot 11-20 on the arc; Pitt was 8-24.

— Purdue 80, Ole Miss 78
Purdue led by 17 with 6:00 left in first half.
Ole Miss led by 7 with 4:18 left in game.
Rebels were 15-36 on the arc, Purdue 10-22. Lot of offense.

— Butler 87, Mississippi State 77
Bulldogs made 12-22 shots on the arc, Miss State 7-27
Butler was +11 on the boards.

— Arizona State 68, Saint Mary’s 64
Sanon scored 19 points for ASU; he didn’t start.
Sun Devils are off to a 7-1 start.

Modern college basketball: Arizona State was 14-18 last year, missing NCAAs for third time in four years. Something had to change; coach Bobby Hurley went to some boosters and asked them to open their wallets. As a result, the Sun Devils added………
Alston Mason, who scored 17.5 ppg at Missouri State
BJ Freeman, who scored 21.1 ppg at Milwaukee
Basheer Jihad, who scored 18.6 ppg at Ball State
ASU also added two five-star freshmen, who don’t come cheap.
This sounds like the script from the movie Blue Chips, where Nick Nolte pays off three recruits to play for his Western U Dolphins, except that now, it is all within the rules.
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
105,970
Tokens
Sunday’s 6-pack:
Conference championship games next week:
— Sun Belt: Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State
— Mountain West: UNLV @ Boise State
— American: Tulane @ Army
— MAC: Miami vs Ohio (@ Detroit)
— SEC: Georgia vs Texas (@ Atlanta)
— Big 18: Penn State vs Oregon (@ Indianapolis)
— ACC: Clemson vs SMU (@ Charlotte, NC)

Quote of the Day

“It’s hard for me to say we’re not one of the 12 best teams in the country. If the committee’s job is to pick the 12 best teams, you tell me.”
South Carolina coach Shane Beamer

Sunday’s quiz
Miami Hurricanes lost their last five bowl games; who did they beat the last time they won a bowl?

Saturday’s quiz
USC basketball coach Eric Musselman was also head coach for the Golden State Warriors and the Sacramento Kings.

Friday’s quiz
Arizona State coach Bobby Hurley scored 3.8 ppg in his five-year NBA career; he played most of his career with the Sacramento Kings.

****************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……..

— Marshall 35, James Madison 33 OT
James Madison led this game 17-0 at halftime.
Marshall tied game on a TD with 5:04 left.
Marshall-Louisiana is the Sun Belt title game next week.

— Texas 17, Texas A&M 7
Texas outgained A&M 458-248; they led 17-0 at halftime.
A&M’s only score was a 93-yard pick-6 in third quarter.
Longhorns ran ball 50 times for 240 yards (4.8 yards/carry)

— Iowa State 29, Kansas State 21
Cyclones are 10-2, program’s first-ever 10-win season.
Teams combined to convert 7-29 third down plays.
K-State completed only 12-29 passes, was minus-2 in turnovers.

— Syracuse 42, Miami 38
10-2 Hurricanes led this game 21-0 early in second quarter.
This score means SMU-Clemson is the ACC title game next week.

— Michigan 13, Ohio State 10
Wolverines beat Ohio State for 4th year in a row.
Buckeyes were a 20-point favorite in this game.
Underdogs are 8-2 ATS in last ten series games.

— South Carolina 17, Clemson 14
QB Sellers ran 20 yards for game-winning TD with 1:08 left.
South Carolina ran ball for 267 yards (6.4 yards/carry)
Both teams finish regular season 9-3.

— Georgia 44, Georgia Tech 42 OT
Tech led 17-0 at halftime.
Dawgs scored two TD’s in last 3:39 of regulation to force OT.
Yellow Jackets outgained Georgia, 563-405.
The college overtime system is strange; liked the old format better.

— College football upsets of the week:
Michigan (+20.5) 13, Ohio State 10
Memphis (+12) 34, Tulane 24
Syracuse (+11) 42, Miami 38
Utah (+9.5) 28, Central Florida 14
Rice (+5.5) 35, South Florida 28

College basketball
notes:
— Monmouth 63, Seton Hall 51
Big East teams aren’t supposed to lose to CAA teams.
Monmouth shot 10-21 on the arc, Seton Hall 5-21.

— Creighton 80, Notre Dame 76
Bluejays shot 11-24 on the arc.
Notre Dame lost its last four games; they’re 1-3 vs top 100 teams.

— San Diego State 73, Houston 70 OT
Aztecs scored 25 points in first half, 40 in second half.
Houston shot 11-24 on arc, only 12-38 inside arc.
7 of the 10 starters in this game played 36+ minutes.

— Oregon 83, Alabama 81
Ducks put in a rebound with 0:04.4 left for the win.
Oregon is 8-0; they win the Players’ Era tournament.
Barthelemy scored 22 points for Oregon; he didn’t start.

Famous birthdays, December 1st:
Bette Midler, 79
Charlene Tilton, 66
Larry Walker, 58
Steve Walsh, 58
DeSean Jackson, 38
Dan Straily, 36
Gary Payton II, 32
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 25

— UConn 47, UMass 42
Huskies are quietly 8-4 under Jim Mora Jr, who was an NFL head coach for four years.
UMass led this game 28-27 at halftime.
UConn ran for 253 yards, outgained the Minutemen, 434-390.

— Utah 28, Central Florida 14
UCF finishes season 4-8, its worst record since 2015.
Coach Gus Malzahn is going to resign and become offensive coordinator at Florida State.
Utes’ win snaps their 7-game losing skid.

— Rice 35, South Florida 28
EJ Warner threw for 430 yards, three touchdowns.
Rice overcame 12 penalties for 93 yards; they averaged 10.2 yards/pass attempt.
Owls led 27-7 at halftime.

— NC State 35, North Carolina 30
Wolfpack scored game-winning TD with 0:25 left.
UNC had taken lead on a 47-yard TD pass with 1:51 left.
Teams converted only 5-23 third down plays.
NC State is 6-6; both teams are bowl eligible.

— Notre Dame 49, USC 35
Trojans are 6-6 this year, 8-10 in last 18 games overall.
Notre Dame had two pick-6’s in 4th quarter, 99 and 100 yards.
Notre Dame beats USC for sixth time in last seven meetings.

— Western Kentucky 19, Jacksonville State 17
WKU kicked a 50-yard field goal with 0:03 left for the win.
These teams meet again next week, in the C-USA championship game.
WKU was 7-20 on third down, Gamecocks were 2-13.
 

Member
Joined
Jun 22, 2009
Messages
18,736
Tokens
NFL
Weather Report

Sunday, December 1


ndTdPZG.png





NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 13

Sunday’s games
Colts
(-2.5) @ Patriots
Colts (5-7)
Indy lost 4 of last 5 games, are 1-3 ATS in last four games,
Colts are 2-6 giving up 20+ points.
Colts have played ten games (5-5) decided by 8 or fewer points.
Team total: under 6-4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 5-2 last seven


QB Richardson (6-6 as NFL starter) is back as the starter.
Colts are 8-5 ATS last 14 games as a road favorite.
Indy is 8-5 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss.
Colts are 2-4 SU on road, with wins by 1-3 points.
Under is 4-2 in Colts road games.
AFC South road teams are 7-11 ATS in non-divisional games.


Patriots (3-9)
Patriots lost three of their last four games, are 1-3-1 ATS on road.
Last five games, New England outscored foes 65-36 in 2nd half.
Patriots are 1-9 when they allow more than 10 points.
Team total: under 6-4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2 last five


NE is 10-22-1 ATS in last 33 games as an underdog.
Patriots are 32-48 since Tom Brady left town.
Patriots are 6-14 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
Rookie QB Maye is 2-5 as an NFL starter.
Over is 4-1 in their home games.
AFC East home teams are 5-8-1 ATS in non-divisional games.


New England won seven of last nine meetings.
Colts are 1-5 SU/3-3 ATS in last six visits to Foxboro.
Under is 3-0 in last three series games.


Steelers @ Bengals (-3)
Steelers (8-3)
Steelers won/covered five of their last six games.
Pittsburgh’s last three games were decided by total of 8 points.
Steelers are 10-5 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
Team total: over 4-2 last six
Opponents’ team total: under 7-4


Steelers are 7-3 in its last 10 games coming off a loss.
Pittsburgh is 8-5 ATS in last 13 AFC North road games.
Last seven games, Steelers are +11 in turnovers.
Last six games, Pittsburgh outscored opponents 100-48 in 2nd half.
Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Steelers are 19-7-1 ATS in last 27 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last two games, Steelers have only two TD’s on 22 drives.


Bengals (4-7)
Bengals gave up 34+ points in their last five losses.
Bengals are 4-1 if they allow 24 or fewer points, 0-6 if they allow more than 24.
Over is 8-2 in their last ten games.
Team total: over 7-4
Opponents’ team total: over 7-3-1


Bengals are 1-3 ATS as a home favorite TY.
Since 2022, Bengals are 10-6-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Cincinnati is 9-7 ATS in last 16 AFC North home games.
Bengals are 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Cincinnati is 0-6 SU in games decided by fewer than 7 points.
QB Burrow is 38-31-1 as an NFL starter.
Bengals won/covered their last three post-bye games.


Pittsburgh won three in row, 12 of last 16 series games.
Steelers are 8-2 SU/6-4 ATS in last 10 visits to Cincinnati.
Over is 5-3 in last eight meetings.


Chargers (-1) @ Falcons
Chargers (7-4)
Chargers won/covered four of last five games.
LA is 2-4 scoring 23 or fewer points, 5-0 scoring 24+.
Last eight games, Chargers outscored foes 145-56 in 1st half.
Team total: over 7-4
Opponents’ team total: under 6-4-1


Chargers are 8-4-2 ATS last 14 games as road favorites.
Bolts are 11-8-2 ATS last 21 games vs NFC opponents.
Chargers are 18-26-2 ATS in last 46 games coming off a loss.
QB Herbert is 37-37 as an NFL starter.
Over is 3-0 in their last three games.
Chargers are 5-13 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
AFC West road teams are 10-7 ATS in non-divisional games.


Falcons (6-5)
Atlanta lost its last two games SU, scoring 2 TD’s on 19 drives.
Falcons were held to 17 or fewer points in all five losses.
Four of Falcons’ last five games stayed under the total.
Team total: under 4-1 last five
Opponents’ team total: over 5-2-1 last eight


Atlanta is 3-3 SU/2-4 ATS at home this season.
Falcons are 6-16-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 10-3 ATS last 13 post-bye games.
Falcons are 7-15 ATS last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
QB Cousins is 82-76-2 as an NFL starter.
Falcons are 3-9 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC teams.
NFC South home teams are 6-9 ATS in non-divisional games.


Chargers won last three series games, by 3-3-3 points.
Underdogs are 4-0-1 ATS in last five meetings (one pick ‘em)
Under is 5-1 in last six series games.


Seahawks (-1) @ Jets
Seahawks (6-5)
Seahawks are 2-0 since their bye, giving up 17-6 points.
Seattle allowed 26+ points in losses, 20 or less in wins.
Seahawks are 1-5-3 ATS last nine games vs AFC opponents.
Team total: over 7-4
Opponents’ team total: over 7-4


QB Smith is 36-42 as an NFL starter, 24-23 with Seattle.
Seahawks are 9-10-1 in last 20 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Seattle was held under 300 TY in three of last four games.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Seattle is 3-1 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.


Jets (3-8)
Jets are 1-7 SU/ATS in last eight games.
Jets are 3-1 if they allow 17 or less points, 0-7 if they allow 23+.
Jets are 0-6 scoring less than 21 points.
Team total: under 6-2 last eight
Opponents’ team total: over 6-1 last seven


Jets are 9-14 ATS last 23 games as a home underdog.
Jets are 1-6 ATS last seven post-bye games.
Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
Jets are 1-5 SU/ATS since their coaching change.
Last three games, Jets averaged only 251 yards/game.
AFC East home teams are 5-8-1 ATS in non-divisional games.


Seattle won/covered last five series games.
Teams split their last two meetings in New Jersey.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.


Texans (-3.5) @ Jaguars
Texans (7-5)
Houston is 2-4 in last six games, after a 5-1 start.
Texans have five wins by 6 or fewer points.
Last seven games, Texans are 3-4, despite being +12 in turnovers.
Houston is 2-5 when it gives up more than 20 points.
Team total: under 7-5
Opponents’ team total: under 5-2-1 last eight


Texans are 2-5 if they allow 21+ points.
Texans are 4-6 ATS last 10 games as a road favorite.
Houston is 7-4 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 17-12 as an NFL starter.
Texans are 8-2 ATS in last ten AFC South road games.
Texans are 5-4 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.


Jaguars (2-8)
Jaguars lost last four games, by 3-5-5-46 points.
Jaguars covered four of their last five games.
Last two games, Jaguars have one TD on 18 drives.
Team total: over 3-2 last four
Opponents’ team total: over 5-2 last seven


Jaguars are 6-3 ATS last nine games as a home underdog.
Jaguars were held under 100 rushing yards in last four games.
Backup QB Jones is 18-27 as an NFL starter.
Six of their last seven games went over the total.
Jaguars have 12 turnovers in last seven games (minus-5)
Jaguars are 1-5 SU/2-3-1 ATS in last six post-bye games.


Texans outgained Jaguars 435-313, beat Jags 24-20 (-6) at hone in Week 4
Houston won 11 of last 13 series games.
Texans are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS last six visits to Jacksonville.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.


Cardinals @ Vikings (-3.5)
Cardinals (6-5)
Arizona won/covered four of last five games.
Cardinals are 17-12 ATS last 29 games coming off a loss.
In its six wins, Arizona outscored foes 77-30 in second half.
Team total: over 6-5
Opponents’ team total: under 7-4


QB Murray is 34-42-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Cardinals were held under 300 TY in four of five losses.
Arizona is 16-9 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog.
Under is 5-1 in their last six games.
Cardinals held last three foes to 243 yards/game.
Last three games, Arizona outscored foes 18-9 in second half.


Vikings (9-2)
Minnesota won last four games, holding all four foes under 100 YR.
Vikings allowed 31-30 points in their two losses.
Under is 8-3-1 in Minnesota’s last 12 home games.
Vikings are 6-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Team total: over 7-3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 7-4


Minnesota is 8-16 ATS in last 24 games as home favorite.
Minnesota has 21 takeaways in 11 games (+3 turnovers).
Minnesota gave up 391/386 TY in its two losses.
Vikings are 3-1 SU/ATS at home this season.
QB Darnold is 29-37 as an NFL starter, 8-2 with Vikings.
Vikings are 11-3-1 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.


Vikings won six of last eight series games.
Cardinals are 0-8 SU/2-4-2 ATS last eight visits to Minnesota.
Over is 3-0-1 in ast four meetings.


Titans @ Commanders (-5.5)
Titans (3-8)
Tennessee split its last four games, after a 1-6 start.
Titans scored 17 or fewer points in their losses; 31-20-32 points in wins.
Tennessee is minus-12 in turnovers, with nine takeaways.
Team total: under 8-3
Opponents’ team total: over 5-3-3


Titans are 2-5 SU/1-6 ATS in last seven games.
Tennessee is 4-9 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
Tennessee has been outscored 156-88 in second half.
QB Levis is 5-12 as an NFL starter.
Tennessee is 0-8 ATS in last eight games coming off a win.
Titans are 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games vs NFC opponents.


Commanders (7-5)
Washington lost last three games, after a 7-2 start.
Last three games, Commanders gave up 28-26-34 points.
Rookie QB Daniels is 7-5 as an NFL starter.
Last two games, Commanders are minus-3 in turnovers.
Team total: over 9-3
Opponents’ team total: under 6-6


Washington allowed 26+ points in all five losses.
They’re 6-0 when they give up less than 26 points.
Last five games, Washington was outscored 98-59 in 2nd half.
Commanders are 13-20-1 ATS in last 34 games coming off a loss.
Commanders are 8-6 ATS in last 14 games vs AFC opponents.
Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.


Tennessee won last two series games, 21-17/25-16.
Titans won/covered three of last four visits to Washington
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.


Buccaneers (-6) @ Panthers
Buccaneers (5-6)
Bucs lost four of last five games, last three losses were by 5-6-3 points.
Buccaneers are 1-4 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Bucs are 7-5 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 9-2
Opponents’ team total: over 8-3


Bucs are 8-9 ATS last 17 games as a road favorite.
QB Mayfield is 47-54 as an NFL starter, 15-15 with Buccaneers.
Six of Tampa Bay’s last eight games went over the total.
Bucs are 1-4 when they score less than 30 points.
Bucs turned ball over nine times in last five games (minus-2).
Tampa Bay is 7-4 ATS in last 11 NFC South road games.


Panthers (3-8)
Carolina is 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in last three games.
Panthers coach Canales was Tampa’s OC last year.
Carolina’s last three games were decided by total of 7 points.
QB Young is 4-18 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 5-5-1
Opponents’ team total: over 8-3


Carolina is 2-5 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
Panthers are 1-4 SU at home, losing by 23-10-18-3 points.
Over is 8-3 in Carolina games this year.
Panthers are 5-2-1 ATS in last eight NFC South home games.
Carolina is 0-8 when they give up more than 22 points..
Last seven games, Panthers are minus-9 in turnovers.


Tampa Bay is 8-1 SU/7-1-1 ATS in last nine meetings.
Buccaneers are 4-1 SU/ATS in last five visits to Charlotte.
Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.


Rams (-2.5) @ Saints
Rams (5-6)
Rams won four of their last six games, after a 1-4 start.
Rams are 1-6 scoring less than 26 points, 4-0 scoring 26+.
Eight of their 11 games were decided by 8 or fewer points.
Last four games, Rams are only 8-41 on third down.
Team total: under 7-4
Opponents’ team total: under 4-2-1 last seven


Favorites are 5-0 SU/ATS in Rams road games this season.
Last six games, Rams are +5 in turnovers.
Rams are 21-15-3 ATS in last 39 games coming off a loss.
Rams are 4-10-1 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Over is 3-1 in their last four road games.
NFC West road teams are 4-7-1 ATS in non-divisional games.


Saints (4-7)
New Orleans won/covered both games since their coaching change.
Last two games, Saints gave up 468-443 TY, but only 17-14 points.
New Orleans is 1-7 when it scores less than 35 points.
Team total: under 3-2 last five
Opponents’ team total: over 6-2 last eight


Saints are 3-3 SU at home TY (underdogs 4-2 ATS)
Saints are 6-8 ATS last 14 games as a home underdog.
New Orleans is 9-15-2 ATS last 26 games coming off a win.
Saints are 1-3 in one-score games this year.
Saints are 11-12-2 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
QB Carr is 76-92 as an NFL starter.
Over is 4-2 in their last five games.


Home team won last four series games.
Rams lost 27-20/45-35 in last two visits to New Orleans.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.


Eagles @ Ravens (-3)
Eagles (9-2)
Eagles are 7-0 SU/5-2 in their last seven games.
Last two weeks, Eagles ran ball for 228-314 yards.
Philly outgained last six opponents, 2,717-1,558.
Team total: over 5-1 last six
Opponents’ team total: under 6-1 last seven


Eagles outscored last six opponents 70-33 in first half.
Philly is 6-1 SU/ATS away from home this year.
Last five games, Eagles are +9 in turnovers.
QB Hurts is 45-22 as an NFL starter.
Eagles are 8-1-1 ATS in last ten games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Eagles are 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 games vs AFC opponents.
NFC East underdogs are 8-11 ATS in non-divisional games.


Ravens (8-4)
Baltimore is 3-2 SU in its last five games, after a 5-game win streak.
Baltimore is 8-0 if they score 28+ points, 0-4 if they score less than 28
Ravens are 5-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Short week for Ravens after Monday night win in LA.
Team total: over 8-4
Opponents’ team total: over 8-4


Ravens are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.
Over is 10-2 in Baltimore’s games this year.
QB Jackson is 69-27 as an NFL starter.
Ravens are 20-5 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Over is 4-1 in Baltimore home games this season.
Last seven weeks, Ravens threw for 7.7+ yards/pass attempt five times.

Baltimore won three of last four meetings.
Last three series games were decided by total of four points.
Last four meetings went over the total.


49ers @ Bills (-7)
49ers (5-6)
QB Purdy didn’t play LW; check status for this week.
49ers are 1-5 when they score less than 30 points.
Last three weeks, 49ers are minus-4 in turnovers. .
49ers are 0-5 when they gain less than 400 yards.
Team total: under 7-4
Opponents’ team total: over 7-3-1


49ers are 11-6 ATS last 17 games as an underdog.
49ers are 12-8 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
QB Purdy is 26-10 as an NFL starter; backup Allen is 2-8
San Francisco is 5-8 ATS in last 13 games vs AFC opponents.
Over is 3-1 in their last four road games.
NFC West teams are 4-7-1 ATS in non-divisional games.


Bills (9-2)
Bills won their last six games (5-1 ATS)
Buffalo gave up 35-23 points in its two losses (8-0 allow less than 23).
Buffalo outscored last five opponents 112-47 in second half.
Last seven games, Bills are +9 in turnovers (14-5).
Team total: over 9-2
Opponents’ team total: under 7-4


Buffalo is 10-10-1 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite.
Bills are 9-0 SU6-2-1 ATS in last nine post-bye games.
QB Allen is 77-37 as an NFL starter.
Last six Buffalo games went over the total.
Buffalo is 5-6-1 ATS in last 12 games vs NFC opponents.
AFC East home favorites are 5-6 ATS in non-divisional games.


Buffalo won last two meetings, 34-24/45-16.
This is 49ers’ first visit to Buffalo since 2016.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
105,970
Tokens

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 1

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
LAC at ATL01:00 PMATL +1.0
U 47.0
+500 +500
ARI at MIN01:00 PMMIN -3.5
O 45.5
+500 +500
PIT at CIN01:00 PMCIN -3.0
U 46.0
+500 +500
SEA at NYJ01:00 PMNYJ -1.0
U 41.5
+500 +500
TEN at WAS01:00 PMTEN +6.0
U 45.0
+500 +500
HOU at JAC01:00 PMJAC +3.0
O 45.5
+500 +500
IND at NE01:00 PMIND -2.5
U 41.0
+500 +500
LA at NO04:05 PMNO +2.5
O 49.0
+500 +500
TB at CAR04:05 PMCAR +6.5
O 46.5
+500 +500
PHI at BAL04:25 PMPHI +2.5
U 51.0
+500 +500
SF at BUF08:20 PMSF +6.5
U 44.5
+500 +500
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
105,970
Tokens
NFL BEST BETS FOR DECEMBER !

12/01/2024.....................3 - 7- 0.....................30.00%.....................- 23.50

TOTALS.............................3 - 7 - 0.....................30.00%.................... - 23.50
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
105,970
Tokens
Monday’s 6-pack:
— Cavaliers 115, Celtics 111- Cleveland is off to an 18-3 start.
— Lakers 105, Jazz 104- Laker starters were minus-23, subs +28.
— Clippers 126, Nuggets 122- Denver shot 58% from floor, still lost.
— Spurs 127, Kings 125- Wembanyama had 34 points, 13 boards, 11 assists.
— Mavericks 137, Trail Blazers 131- Doncic had 36 points, 13 assists.
— Magic 100, Nets 92- Orlando is off to a 15-7 start.

Quote of the Day
“As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly!!!”
Mr Carlson, WKRP in Cincinnati

Friday’s quiz
Where did Bills’ QB Josh Allen play his college football?

Sunday’s quiz
Miami Hurricanes lost their last five bowl games; they beat West Virginia 31-14 the last time they won a bowl, in Orlando back in 2016.

Saturday’s quiz
USC basketball coach Eric Musselman was also head coach for the Golden State Warriors and the Sacramento Kings.

**************************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……..

Eagles 24, Ravens 19
Eagles’ first four drives: 14 plays, 23 yards, four punts.
Eagles’ last seven drives: 43 plays, 237 yards, 24 points.
Philly is 8-0 SU/6-2 in their last eight games.
Philly is 9-1-1 ATS in last 11 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Saquon Barkley ran ball 23 times for 107 yards and a TD.
Baltimore led 9-0 after the first quarter.
K Tucker missed a PAT and FG’s of 47-53 yards (he made 34-50 yard FGs).
Baltimore is 8-0 if they score 28+ points, 0-5 if they score less than 28.

Vikings 23, Cardinals 22
Vikings drove 62 yards, scored game-winning TD with 1:13 left.
Kevin O’Connell is 24-9 as a HC in one-score games, really good.
Arizona ran for 154 yards, most RY Vikings have allowed this year.
Minnesota is 8-17 ATS in last 25 games as home favorite.
Cardinals outgained Minnesota 406-273, but scored only one TD.
Arizona had 10 drives; 5-6 on FG’s, one TD, two INT’s on last three drives.
Arizona is 17-9 ATS in last 26 games as a road underdog.
Vikings have won 5 in row, are 10-0 giving up less than 30 points.

Seahawks 26, Jets 21
Jets led 21-7 after a 99-yard kick return in second quarter.
DE Marshall had 92-yard pick-6 that made score 21-13.
Seahawks are 3-0 since their bye, giving up 17-6-21 points.
Seattle allowed 26+ points in losses, 21 or less in wins.
Jets first three drives: 18 plays, 110 yards, 14 points.
Jets rest of game: 44 plays, 155 yards, outscored 7-0 by Seattle defense.
Jets are 9-15 ATS last 24 games as a home underdog.
Jets are 1-8 SU/ATS in their last nine games.

Steelers 44, Bengals 38
Wilson threw a pick-6 on Pittsburgh’s third play of the day.
Steelers’ next five drives: 35 plays, 302 yards, 27 points.
Steelers won/covered six of their last seven games.
Steelers are 11-5 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
Wilson was 29-38/414 passing, with three TD’s.
Last eight games, Steelers are +13 in turnovers.
Cincinnati is 0-7 SU in games decided by fewer than 7 points.
Bengals are 4-1 if they allow 24 or fewer points, 0-7 if they allow more than 24.

Buccaneers 26, Panthers 23 OT
Carolina led 16-10 after the third quarter.
Carolina scored on 25-yard TD pass with 0:30 left to go ahead 23-20
Tampa Bay kicked 51-yard FG at the gun to force overtime.
Seven of Tampa Bay’s last nine games went over the total.
Carolina QB Young threw for 298 yards; he has gotten a lot better.
WR Thielen caught 8 passes for 99 yards and a TD.
Last four games, Panthers are 2-2 SU/4-0 ATS.
Carolina is 6-2-1 ATS in last nine NFC South home games.

Chargers 17, Falcons 13
Chargers’ only TD was 61-yard pick-6 late in third quarter.
Chargers won/covered five of last six games.
Bolts in first half: 31 plays, 148 yards, 3 FG’s on four drives.
Chargers held on in 2nd half: 15 plays, 40 yards, no points.
Atlanta lost its last three games SU, scoring 3 TD’s on 29 drives.
Cousins threw 4 INT’s, 3 of them on Falcons’ last four drives.
Falcons were held to 17 or fewer points in all six losses.
Falcons/Tampa Bay are now tied for first atop NFC South.

Famous birthdays, December 2nd:
Steven Bauer, 68
Mark Kotsay, 49
Britney Spears, 43
Aaron Rodgers, 41
Gary Sanchez, 32
Aaron Jones, 30

Colts 25, Patriots 24
Down 24-17, Colts drove 66 yards, scored TD with 0:12 left.
Then they went for 2 points; QB Richardson ran for the winning score.
6-7 Colts are 5-4 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Despite the win, Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
NE outgained Colts 422-253, but had only 2 TD’s in 6 trips to red zone.
Patriots lost their last three games, giving up 28-34-25 points.
Over is 5-1 in New England’s home games.
Patriots are 1-10 when they allow more than 10 points.

Rams 21, Saints 14
First regular season game in McVay era Rams didn’t score in 1st half.
Rams in first half: 23 plays, 93 yards, no points.
Rams in second half: 29 plays, 239 yards, 21 points.
Rams won five of their last seven games, after a 1-4 start.
Saints in first half: 43 plays, 159 yards, only six points (led 6-0 at half).
NO is 1-4 in one-score games this year.
Saints are 6-9 ATS last 15 games as a home underdog.
New Orleans is 9-16-2 ATS last 27 games coming off a win.

Texans 23, Jaguars 20
Texans first five drives: 33 plays, 125 yards, six points.
Texans last four drives: 23 plays, 171 yards, 17 points.
WR Collins caught 8 passes for 119 yards.
Houston has six wins by 6 or fewer points.
Jaguars’ QB Lawrence was KO’d (concussion( by a violent hit.
Jaguars lost last five games, by 3-5-5-46-3 points.
Jacksonville covered five of their last six games.
Jaguars are 7-3 ATS last ten games as a home underdog.

Commanders 42, Titans 19
Washington’s first four drives: 26 plays, 197 yards, 28 points.
Commanders led 21-0 after first quarter, outgained Titans 463-245.
Washington is 7-0 when it gives up less than 26 points.
McLaurin caught 8 passes for 73 yards, two TD’s.
Washington ran ball for 267 yards (5.9 yards/carry)
Titans are 2-6 SU/1-7 ATS in last eight games.
Titans scored 31-20-32 points in wins, 19 or fewer in their losses.
Tennessee is 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.

Bills 35, 49ers 10
49ers lost last three games, giving up 35-38 points in last two.
Buffalo ran ball for 220 yards, outgained SF 372-239 on a snowy night.
Star RB McCaffrey (knee) could be out for the season.
49ers are 0-6 when they gain less than 400 yards.
Buffalo’s first four drives: 26 plays, 238 yards, 21 points.
Bills won their last seven games (6-1 ATS); they clinched AFC East.
Last eight games, Bills are +12 in turnovers (17-5).
Last seven Buffalo games went over the total.

— Hall of Fame basketball coach Lou Carnesecca, who led St John’s to two Big East tournament titles and a 1985 Final Four appearance, died Saturday at age 99.
Carnesecca led St. John’s to eighteen 20-win seasons and 18 NCAA tournament appearances; he had a 526-300 record, was inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame in 1992.
RIP, coach.

— New York Mets signed P Frankie Montas to a 2-year, $34M deal; Montas was 7-11, 4.84 in 30 starts last year, for the Reds/Brewers. He is 44-46, 4.09 in 129 MLB starts.

— Bill Vinovich was the referee for the Cardinals-Vikings game in Minnesota Sunday; during the week, he was a basketball referee at the Acrisure tournament in Palm Springs, CA. I saw him do at least two games during the week (Thursday/Friday??) Busy week for a good official.
 

Member
Joined
Jun 22, 2009
Messages
18,736
Tokens
NFL
Weather Report

Monday, December 2


Q420kkb.png





NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 13

Monday’s game
Browns
@ Broncos (-5)
Browns (3-8)
Cleveland split last four games, after a 1-6 start.
Browns are 2-3 SU/ATS on road this season.
Cleveland is 3-0 when it scores 18+ points, 0-8 when it doesn’t
Browns are 6-13-1 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
Team total: under 9-2
Opponents’ team total: over 6-5


Browns are 8-12-1 ATS last 21 games as a road underdog.
Last five games, Browns ran ball for 77-80-79-66-85 yards.
Cleveland had extra time to prep; they played on Thursday LW.
Cleveland allowed 20+ points in nine of 11 games.
Browns are minus-6 in turnovers the last five games.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.


Broncos (7-5)
Denver is 6-0 if they score more than 20 points, 1-5 if they score 20 or less.
Last five weeks, Broncos converted 36-70 third down plays.
Broncos are 1-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Team total: over 7-4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 8-4


Favorites are 5-0 SU/ATS in Denver home games.
Denver is 9-12-1 ATS last 22 games as a home favorite (3-0 TY).
In wins, Broncos are +8 in turnovers; in losses, minus-6.
Under Payton, Denver is 7-7 ATS coming off a win
Six of Broncos’ last eight games went over the total.
Last three games, Denver held opponents to 57-50-69 rushing yards.


Broncos won nine of last 11 series games.
Browns are 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS in last seven visits to Denver.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
 

Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2022
Messages
141
Tokens
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on an 17-19 SU and 21-15 ATS (58.3%) surge since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-5.5 vs. CLE)

· In concert with the theme of big underdogs faring well on MNF, teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less at the time have gone 11-14 SU and 16-9 ATS (64%) in their last 25 tries against teams scoring higher than that.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+5.5 at DEN)

· Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 37-34 SU but just 25-44-2 ATS (36.2%) in the last 71 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-5.5 vs. CLE)

Bad MNF Team Trends
Denver 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-5.5 vs. CLE)

UNDER the total MNF Team Trends

Cleveland 4-2-1 Under run
Denver the last seven Under
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DEN (o/u at 42)

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Denver 8-20 SU and 9-17-2 ATS last 28
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-5.5 vs. CLE)

UNDER the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Cleveland 16-8-1 primetime Under run
Denver 17-4 Under since 2017

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie that started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Caleb Williams (Chicago), Jayden Daniels (Washington), Drake Maye (New England), and Bo Nix (Denver), although others could join them down the road.

(Games this week: CHI(+10)-DET, TEN-WAS(-5.5), IND-NE(+3), CLE-DEN(-5.5))

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Rookie quarterbacks have been solid bets in the home favorite role over the last four seasons

Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 36-11 SU and 33-13-1 ATS (71.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, DENVER

Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 48-57 SU but 60-44-1 ATS (57.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ENGLAND, DENVER

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #12 – Non-Sunday games have been a respite for rookie QBs
Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 18-18 SU and 23-11-2 ATS (67.6%) in their last 36 such tries. Moreover, they are 19-5-1 ATS (79.2%) in their last 25 Monday Night contests.
System Match (PLAY):
CHICAGO, DENVER
 

Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2022
Messages
141
Tokens

Cleveland @ Denver -5.5, Total 42​

Broncos are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games against Cleveland, including 8-1 SU at home

Browns are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games vs AFC West division.

OVER is 12-3 Cleveland’s last 15 games on the road.

Browns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in December.

Broncos are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games including 6 straight as favorites

Broncos are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 13.

Broncos are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games played on a Monday and played 7 straight UNDERs

Header First Logo

Bo Chalk​

Nix's Historic Start
Bo Nix has only closed as a favorite five times in his 12 career starts, and he is 5-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 13.7 points per game. Nix is the lone remaining QB undefeated ATS as a favorite this year.

Jayden Daniels started 5-0 SU/ATS as a favorite earlier this season. Caleb Williams also started 3-0 SU/ATS as a favorite, too. Bo Nix would be the first rookie QB to start 6-0 SU/ATS as a favorite all in their rookie year in the Super Bowl era.
 

Member
Joined
Jan 16, 2022
Messages
141
Tokens

Bo Nix's MNF debut: Rookie QBs on Monday Night​

➤We have a rookie in Bo Nix making his MNF debut this week at home against the Browns.

Rookie QBs on MNF aren’t as bad as one might think. They are 23-32-1 SU since the merger and in 2024 they are 1-0 SU/ATS with Jayden Daniels beating the Bengals earlier this season. Since the start of 2022, these QBs are 4-1 SU on MNF.

Sean Payton's struggles in night games​

➤Sean Payton has coached his share of night games in his NFL career with the Broncos and Saints, but ATS, especially recently hasn’t been a friendly atmosphere.

Since 2020, with both Denver and New Orleans, he is 4-12 ATS in night games, the least profitable ATS of 58 head coaches in that span. One of those wins came with Bo Nix, who beat the Saints on the road earlier this year.

Overall, Payton is 18-9 SU and 12-15 ATS in his coaching career on MNF. Over the last decade, he is 4-10 ATS on MNF.

Bo Nix's perfect record as a favorite​

➤Bo Nix has started all 12 games so far this season for the Broncos, and Denver is 9-3 ATS, covering the number by 6.5 PPG. The only QB more profitable ATS this season entering Week 13 is Jared Goff, who is 9-2 ATS with Thanksgiving on deck.

Nix has only closed as a favorite five times in his 12 career starts, and he is 5-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 13.7 points per game. Nix is the lone remaining QB undefeated ATS as a favorite this year – no minimum starts.

Jayden Daniels started 5-0 SU/ATS as a favorite earlier this season before losing two straight SU as a favorite against the Steelers and Cowboys. Not to mention, Caleb Williams also started 3-0 SU/ATS as a favorite, too.

Bo Nix would be the first rookie QB to start 6-0 SU/ATS as a favorite all in their rookie year in the Super Bowl era.

Between Weeks 1-4, Nix had a CPOE (completion pct over expected) that ranked 30th in the NFL. Since Week 5, Nix is 11th in the NFL.

Jameis Winston's struggles against Sean Payton​

➤With Jameis Winston once playing in the same division as Sean Payton, he has faced him nine times in his NFL career. Winston is 3-6 SU and ATS, losing his last three matchups vs. Payton both SU and ATS since 2018.

Winston’s struggles with extended rest​

➤Jameis hasn’t been great on extended rest in his career, he is 5-9 ATS, losing his last six games ATS on more prep time, including 1-8 ATS in his last 9 games on extended rest.

Browns' performance with extra rest​

➤Browns are on the longest possible rest time without having a bye week this week, going from playing Thursday Night Football to Monday Night Football. Those such teams are 20-17 SU and 21-13-3 ATS over the last decade, with those games going 25-12 to the under, by 4.1 PPG.

Overall, Kevin Stefanski has done a good job as an underdog in night games. He is 3-2 ATS, but on a 6pt teaser, he is 5-0 in that spot.

Monday Night Football Overs​

➤Monday Night Football overs have been the trend in 2024. They are 11-4 to the over, going over by 5.5 PPG.

At the moment, this is the 2nd-best year for overs on MNF in the last 20 years behind just 2008 when they were 12-3-2 to the over.
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
105,970
Tokens

MONDAY, DECEMBER 2

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
CLE at DEN08:15 PMDEN -6.5
O 41.5
+500 +500
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
105,970
Tokens
NFL BEST BETS FOR DECEMBER !

12/02/2024....................2 - 0 - 0...................100.00%....................+ 10.00
12/01/2024.....................3 - 7- 0.....................30.00%.....................- 23.50

TOTALS.............................5 - 7 - 0.....................41.66%.................... - 13.50
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,974
Messages
13,575,679
Members
100,889
Latest member
junkerb
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com