NFL
Weather Report
Sunday, December 1
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 13
Sunday’s games
Colts (-2.5) @
Patriots
Colts (5-7)
Indy lost 4 of last 5 games, are 1-3 ATS in last four games,
Colts are 2-6 giving up 20+ points.
Colts have played ten games (5-5) decided by 8 or fewer points.
Team total: under 6-4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 5-2 last seven
QB Richardson (6-6 as NFL starter) is back as the starter.
Colts are 8-5 ATS last 14 games as a road favorite.
Indy is 8-5 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss.
Colts are 2-4 SU on road, with wins by 1-3 points.
Under is 4-2 in Colts road games.
AFC South road teams are 7-11 ATS in non-divisional games.
Patriots (3-9)
Patriots lost three of their last four games, are 1-3-1 ATS on road.
Last five games, New England outscored foes 65-36 in 2nd half.
Patriots are 1-9 when they allow more than 10 points.
Team total: under 6-4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2 last five
NE is 10-22-1 ATS in last 33 games as an underdog.
Patriots are 32-48 since Tom Brady left town.
Patriots are 6-14 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
Rookie QB Maye is 2-5 as an NFL starter.
Over is 4-1 in their home games.
AFC East home teams are 5-8-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
New England won seven of last nine meetings.
Colts are 1-5 SU/3-3 ATS in last six visits to Foxboro.
Under is 3-0 in last three series games.
Steelers @
Bengals (-3)
Steelers (8-3)
Steelers won/covered five of their last six games.
Pittsburgh’s last three games were decided by total of 8 points.
Steelers are 10-5 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
Team total: over 4-2 last six
Opponents’ team total: under 7-4
Steelers are 7-3 in its last 10 games coming off a loss.
Pittsburgh is 8-5 ATS in last 13 AFC North road games.
Last seven games, Steelers are +11 in turnovers.
Last six games, Pittsburgh outscored opponents 100-48 in 2nd half.
Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Steelers are 19-7-1 ATS in last 27 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last two games, Steelers have only two TD’s on 22 drives.
Bengals (4-7)
Bengals gave up 34+ points in their last five losses.
Bengals are 4-1 if they allow 24 or fewer points, 0-6 if they allow more than 24.
Over is 8-2 in their last ten games.
Team total: over 7-4
Opponents’ team total: over 7-3-1
Bengals are 1-3 ATS as a home favorite TY.
Since 2022, Bengals are 10-6-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Cincinnati is 9-7 ATS in last 16 AFC North home games.
Bengals are 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Cincinnati is 0-6 SU in games decided by fewer than 7 points.
QB Burrow is 38-31-1 as an NFL starter.
Bengals won/covered their last three post-bye games.
Pittsburgh won three in row, 12 of last 16 series games.
Steelers are 8-2 SU/6-4 ATS in last 10 visits to Cincinnati.
Over is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
Chargers (-1) @
Falcons
Chargers (7-4)
Chargers won/covered four of last five games.
LA is 2-4 scoring 23 or fewer points, 5-0 scoring 24+.
Last eight games, Chargers outscored foes 145-56 in 1st half.
Team total: over 7-4
Opponents’ team total: under 6-4-1
Chargers are 8-4-2 ATS last 14 games as road favorites.
Bolts are 11-8-2 ATS last 21 games vs NFC opponents.
Chargers are 18-26-2 ATS in last 46 games coming off a loss.
QB Herbert is 37-37 as an NFL starter.
Over is 3-0 in their last three games.
Chargers are 5-13 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
AFC West road teams are 10-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Falcons (6-5)
Atlanta lost its last two games SU, scoring 2 TD’s on 19 drives.
Falcons were held to 17 or fewer points in all five losses.
Four of Falcons’ last five games stayed under the total.
Team total: under 4-1 last five
Opponents’ team total: over 5-2-1 last eight
Atlanta is 3-3 SU/2-4 ATS at home this season.
Falcons are 6-16-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 10-3 ATS last 13 post-bye games.
Falcons are 7-15 ATS last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
QB Cousins is 82-76-2 as an NFL starter.
Falcons are 3-9 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC teams.
NFC South home teams are 6-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chargers won last three series games, by 3-3-3 points.
Underdogs are 4-0-1 ATS in last five meetings (one pick ‘em)
Under is 5-1 in last six series games.
Seahawks (-1) @
Jets
Seahawks (6-5)
Seahawks are 2-0 since their bye, giving up 17-6 points.
Seattle allowed 26+ points in losses, 20 or less in wins.
Seahawks are 1-5-3 ATS last nine games vs AFC opponents.
Team total: over 7-4
Opponents’ team total: over 7-4
QB Smith is 36-42 as an NFL starter, 24-23 with Seattle.
Seahawks are 9-10-1 in last 20 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Seattle was held under 300 TY in three of last four games.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Seattle is 3-1 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Jets (3-8)
Jets are 1-7 SU/ATS in last eight games.
Jets are 3-1 if they allow 17 or less points, 0-7 if they allow 23+.
Jets are 0-6 scoring less than 21 points.
Team total: under 6-2 last eight
Opponents’ team total: over 6-1 last seven
Jets are 9-14 ATS last 23 games as a home underdog.
Jets are 1-6 ATS last seven post-bye games.
Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
Jets are 1-5 SU/ATS since their coaching change.
Last three games, Jets averaged only 251 yards/game.
AFC East home teams are 5-8-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Seattle won/covered last five series games.
Teams split their last two meetings in New Jersey.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Texans (-3.5) @
Jaguars
Texans (7-5)
Houston is 2-4 in last six games, after a 5-1 start.
Texans have five wins by 6 or fewer points.
Last seven games, Texans are 3-4, despite being +12 in turnovers.
Houston is 2-5 when it gives up more than 20 points.
Team total: under 7-5
Opponents’ team total: under 5-2-1 last eight
Texans are 2-5 if they allow 21+ points.
Texans are 4-6 ATS last 10 games as a road favorite.
Houston is 7-4 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 17-12 as an NFL starter.
Texans are 8-2 ATS in last ten AFC South road games.
Texans are 5-4 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Jaguars (2-8)
Jaguars lost last four games, by 3-5-5-46 points.
Jaguars covered four of their last five games.
Last two games, Jaguars have one TD on 18 drives.
Team total: over 3-2 last four
Opponents’ team total: over 5-2 last seven
Jaguars are 6-3 ATS last nine games as a home underdog.
Jaguars were held under 100 rushing yards in last four games.
Backup QB Jones is 18-27 as an NFL starter.
Six of their last seven games went over the total.
Jaguars have 12 turnovers in last seven games (minus-5)
Jaguars are 1-5 SU/2-3-1 ATS in last six post-bye games.
Texans outgained Jaguars 435-313, beat Jags 24-20 (-6) at hone in Week 4
Houston won 11 of last 13 series games.
Texans are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS last six visits to Jacksonville.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Cardinals @
Vikings (-3.5)
Cardinals (6-5)
Arizona won/covered four of last five games.
Cardinals are 17-12 ATS last 29 games coming off a loss.
In its six wins, Arizona outscored foes 77-30 in second half.
Team total: over 6-5
Opponents’ team total: under 7-4
QB Murray is 34-42-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Cardinals were held under 300 TY in four of five losses.
Arizona is 16-9 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog.
Under is 5-1 in their last six games.
Cardinals held last three foes to 243 yards/game.
Last three games, Arizona outscored foes 18-9 in second half.
Vikings (9-2)
Minnesota won last four games, holding all four foes under 100 YR.
Vikings allowed 31-30 points in their two losses.
Under is 8-3-1 in Minnesota’s last 12 home games.
Vikings are 6-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Team total: over 7-3-1
Opponents’ team total: under 7-4
Minnesota is 8-16 ATS in last 24 games as home favorite.
Minnesota has 21 takeaways in 11 games (+3 turnovers).
Minnesota gave up 391/386 TY in its two losses.
Vikings are 3-1 SU/ATS at home this season.
QB Darnold is 29-37 as an NFL starter, 8-2 with Vikings.
Vikings are 11-3-1 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
Vikings won six of last eight series games.
Cardinals are 0-8 SU/2-4-2 ATS last eight visits to Minnesota.
Over is 3-0-1 in ast four meetings.
Titans @
Commanders (-5.5)
Titans (3-8)
Tennessee split its last four games, after a 1-6 start.
Titans scored 17 or fewer points in their losses; 31-20-32 points in wins.
Tennessee is minus-12 in turnovers, with nine takeaways.
Team total: under 8-3
Opponents’ team total: over 5-3-3
Titans are 2-5 SU/1-6 ATS in last seven games.
Tennessee is 4-9 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
Tennessee has been outscored 156-88 in second half.
QB Levis is 5-12 as an NFL starter.
Tennessee is 0-8 ATS in last eight games coming off a win.
Titans are 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games vs NFC opponents.
Commanders (7-5)
Washington lost last three games, after a 7-2 start.
Last three games, Commanders gave up 28-26-34 points.
Rookie QB Daniels is 7-5 as an NFL starter.
Last two games, Commanders are minus-3 in turnovers.
Team total: over 9-3
Opponents’ team total: under 6-6
Washington allowed 26+ points in all five losses.
They’re 6-0 when they give up less than 26 points.
Last five games, Washington was outscored 98-59 in 2nd half.
Commanders are 13-20-1 ATS in last 34 games coming off a loss.
Commanders are 8-6 ATS in last 14 games vs AFC opponents.
Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
Tennessee won last two series games, 21-17/25-16.
Titans won/covered three of last four visits to Washington
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Buccaneers (-6) @
Panthers
Buccaneers (5-6)
Bucs lost four of last five games, last three losses were by 5-6-3 points.
Buccaneers are 1-4 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Bucs are 7-5 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 9-2
Opponents’ team total: over 8-3
Bucs are 8-9 ATS last 17 games as a road favorite.
QB Mayfield is 47-54 as an NFL starter, 15-15 with Buccaneers.
Six of Tampa Bay’s last eight games went over the total.
Bucs are 1-4 when they score less than 30 points.
Bucs turned ball over nine times in last five games (minus-2).
Tampa Bay is 7-4 ATS in last 11 NFC South road games.
Panthers (3-8)
Carolina is 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in last three games.
Panthers coach Canales was Tampa’s OC last year.
Carolina’s last three games were decided by total of 7 points.
QB Young is 4-18 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 5-5-1
Opponents’ team total: over 8-3
Carolina is 2-5 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
Panthers are 1-4 SU at home, losing by 23-10-18-3 points.
Over is 8-3 in Carolina games this year.
Panthers are 5-2-1 ATS in last eight NFC South home games.
Carolina is 0-8 when they give up more than 22 points..
Last seven games, Panthers are minus-9 in turnovers.
Tampa Bay is 8-1 SU/7-1-1 ATS in last nine meetings.
Buccaneers are 4-1 SU/ATS in last five visits to Charlotte.
Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.
Rams (-2.5) @
Saints
Rams (5-6)
Rams won four of their last six games, after a 1-4 start.
Rams are 1-6 scoring less than 26 points, 4-0 scoring 26+.
Eight of their 11 games were decided by 8 or fewer points.
Last four games, Rams are only 8-41 on third down.
Team total: under 7-4
Opponents’ team total: under 4-2-1 last seven
Favorites are 5-0 SU/ATS in Rams road games this season.
Last six games, Rams are +5 in turnovers.
Rams are 21-15-3 ATS in last 39 games coming off a loss.
Rams are 4-10-1 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Over is 3-1 in their last four road games.
NFC West road teams are 4-7-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Saints (4-7)
New Orleans won/covered both games since their coaching change.
Last two games, Saints gave up 468-443 TY, but only 17-14 points.
New Orleans is 1-7 when it scores less than 35 points.
Team total: under 3-2 last five
Opponents’ team total: over 6-2 last eight
Saints are 3-3 SU at home TY (underdogs 4-2 ATS)
Saints are 6-8 ATS last 14 games as a home underdog.
New Orleans is 9-15-2 ATS last 26 games coming off a win.
Saints are 1-3 in one-score games this year.
Saints are 11-12-2 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
QB Carr is 76-92 as an NFL starter.
Over is 4-2 in their last five games.
Home team won last four series games.
Rams lost 27-20/45-35 in last two visits to New Orleans.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Eagles @
Ravens (-3)
Eagles (9-2)
Eagles are 7-0 SU/5-2 in their last seven games.
Last two weeks, Eagles ran ball for 228-314 yards.
Philly outgained last six opponents, 2,717-1,558.
Team total: over 5-1 last six
Opponents’ team total: under 6-1 last seven
Eagles outscored last six opponents 70-33 in first half.
Philly is 6-1 SU/ATS away from home this year.
Last five games, Eagles are +9 in turnovers.
QB Hurts is 45-22 as an NFL starter.
Eagles are 8-1-1 ATS in last ten games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Eagles are 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 games vs AFC opponents.
NFC East underdogs are 8-11 ATS in non-divisional games.
Ravens (8-4)
Baltimore is 3-2 SU in its last five games, after a 5-game win streak.
Baltimore is 8-0 if they score 28+ points, 0-4 if they score less than 28
Ravens are 5-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Short week for Ravens after Monday night win in LA.
Team total: over 8-4
Opponents’ team total: over 8-4
Ravens are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.
Over is 10-2 in Baltimore’s games this year.
QB Jackson is 69-27 as an NFL starter.
Ravens are 20-5 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Over is 4-1 in Baltimore home games this season.
Last seven weeks, Ravens threw for 7.7+ yards/pass attempt five times.
Baltimore won three of last four meetings.
Last three series games were decided by total of four points.
Last four meetings went over the total.
49ers @
Bills (-7)
49ers (5-6)
QB Purdy didn’t play LW; check status for this week.
49ers are 1-5 when they score less than 30 points.
Last three weeks, 49ers are minus-4 in turnovers. .
49ers are 0-5 when they gain less than 400 yards.
Team total: under 7-4
Opponents’ team total: over 7-3-1
49ers are 11-6 ATS last 17 games as an underdog.
49ers are 12-8 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
QB Purdy is 26-10 as an NFL starter; backup Allen is 2-8
San Francisco is 5-8 ATS in last 13 games vs AFC opponents.
Over is 3-1 in their last four road games.
NFC West teams are 4-7-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Bills (9-2)
Bills won their last six games (5-1 ATS)
Buffalo gave up 35-23 points in its two losses (8-0 allow less than 23).
Buffalo outscored last five opponents 112-47 in second half.
Last seven games, Bills are +9 in turnovers (14-5).
Team total: over 9-2
Opponents’ team total: under 7-4
Buffalo is 10-10-1 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite.
Bills are 9-0 SU6-2-1 ATS in last nine post-bye games.
QB Allen is 77-37 as an NFL starter.
Last six Buffalo games went over the total.
Buffalo is 5-6-1 ATS in last 12 games vs NFC opponents.
AFC East home favorites are 5-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Buffalo won last two meetings, 34-24/45-16.
This is 49ers’ first visit to Buffalo since 2016.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.