NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 14
Sunday’s games
Saints (-5) @ Giants
Saints (4-8)
New Orleans is 2-1 SU/ATS since their coaching change.
Saints lost last four road games, giving up 25.3 ppg.
New Orleans is 1-8 when it scores less than 35 points.
Saints are 0-7 when they give up 20+ points.
Team total: under 4-2 last six
Opponents’ team total: over 6-3 last nine
Saints are 1-3 ATS as a favorite this year.
Saints are 1-6-1 ATS last eight games as a road favorite.
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS last seven games coming off a loss.
Saints are 1-4 in one-score games this year.
QB Carr is 76-93 as an NFL starter.
Over is 7-5 in their games this season.
Giants (2-10)
Giants are 0-7 SU/ATS in last six games.
Giants are 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS at home, scoring 10 points/game.
Giants haven’t had a positive turnover ratio in any games TY.
Team total: under 7-5
Opponents’ team total: over 6-0 last six
Last seven games, Giants were outscored 97-29 in first half.
Under Daboll, Giants are 8-8-1 ATS as a home underdog
Under Daboll, Giants are 14-12-1 ATS coming off a loss.
QB Lock is 9-15 as an NFL starter.
Under is 8-4 in their games this season.
Last two games, Giants gained 247/245 yards.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Saints lost four of last six visits to the Garden State (vs Giants)
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Browns @ Steelers (-6.5)
Browns (3-9)
Cleveland scored 24-32 points last 2 games, most they’ve scored TY
Winston also threw two pick-6’s and an INT in red zone Monday nite.
Browns are 2-4 SU/ATS on road this season.
Cleveland is 3-1 when it scores 18+ points, 0-8 when it doesn’t
Team total: under 9-3
Opponents’ team total: over 7-5
Short week for Browns after Monday’s loss in Denver.
Browns are 8-13-1 ATS last 22 games as a road underdog.
Last six games, Browns ran ball for 77-80-79-66-85-77 yards.
Cleveland allowed 20+ points in 10 of 12 games.
Browns are 6-14-1 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss.
Browns are minus-7 in turnovers the last six games.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Steelers (9-3)
Steelers won/covered six of their last seven games.
Pittsburgh’s last four games were decided by total of 14 points.
Steelers are 6-5 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.
Team total: over 5-2 last seven
Opponents’ team total: under 7-5
Steelers are 14-6-1 in its last 21 games coming off a win.
Pittsburgh is 12-4 ATS in last 16 AFC North home games.
Last eight games, Steelers are +13 in turnovers.
Last seven games, Pittsburgh outscored opponents 117-65 in 2nd half.
Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Wilson threw for 414 yards LW (10.3 yards/attempt).
Home team won last five series games.
Browns (+3.5) beat Steelers 24-19 at home two weeks ago.
Cleveland lost 4 in row, 21 of last 22 visits to Pittsburgh (1-6 ATS last 7)
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Falcons @ Vikings (-5.5)
Falcons (6-6)
Kirk Cousins against his old team; he threw 4 INT’s in LW’s loss.
Atlanta lost its last three games SU, scoring 3 TD’s on 29 drives.
Falcons were held to 17 or fewer points in all six losses.
Atlanta scored 22= points in all of its wins.
Team total: under 5-1 last six
Opponents’ team total: over 5-3-1 last nine
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.
Falcons are 3-7 ATS last 10 games as an underdog overall.
Falcons are 9-13-1 ATS in last 23 games coming off a loss.
QB Cousins is 82-77-2 as an NFL starter.
Five of Falcons’ last six games stayed under the total.
NFC South underdogs are 10-12 ATS in non-divisional games.
Vikings (10-2)
Minnesota won last five games, winning last two by 1-3 points.
Vikings allowed 31-30 points in their two losses.
Under is 9-3-1 in Minnesota’s last 13 home games.
Vikings are 7-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Team total: over 7-4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 7-5
Minnesota is 8-17 ATS in last 25 games as home favorite.
Minnesota has 23 takeaways in 12 games (+4 turnovers).
Minnesota gave up 391/386 TY in its two losses.
Vikings are 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS at home this season.
QB Darnold is 30-37 as an NFL starter, 9-2 with Vikings.
Vikings are 11-4-1 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
NFC North home favorites are 11-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Vikings won five of last six series games.
Teams split their last six meetings in Minnesota.
Under is 7-3 in last ten meetings.
Raiders @ Buccaneers (-6.5)
Raiders (2-10)
QB O’Connell threw for 340 yards in LW’s 19-17 loss to Chiefs.
Raiders averaged 8.4 yards/pass attempt LW, their best this year.
Raiders are 0-8 SU/3-5 ATS in last eight games.
Raiders have 23 turnovers in 12 games (minus-18).
Team total: over 8-4
Opponents’ team total: over 8-4
Raiders are 3-4 ATS this season as a road underdog.
Raiders held last three opponents to 82-63-63 rushing yards.
QB O’Connell is 5-8 as an NFL starter.
Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games.
Raiders are 7-9-1 ATS last 17 games vs NFC teams.
Las Vegas is 18-22-1 ATS in last 41 games coming off a loss.
AFC West road teams are 11-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Buccaneers (6-6)
Bucs won their last two games, after a 1-5 skid.
Bucs are 2-4 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Tampa Bay lost last three home tilts, giving up 41-31-23 points.
Bucs are 7-6 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
Team total: over 9-3
Opponents’ team total: over 8-4
Bucs are 3-2 ATS as a favorite this season.
Tampa Bay is 3-2-1 ATS last six gams as a home favorite.
QB Mayfield is 48-54 as an NFL starter, 16-15 with Buccaneers.
Seven of Tampa Bay’s last nine games went over the total.
Bucs are 2-4 when they score less than 30 points.
Bucs turned ball over 11 times in last six games (minus-3).
Tampa Bay is 5-7 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC opponents.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Raiders won 30-24/31-24 in last two visits to Tampa.
Last six series games went over the total.
Panthers @ Eagles (-12.5)
Panthers (3-9)
Carolina is 2-2 SU/4-0 ATS in last four games.
Those four games were decided by total of 10 points.
Last two weeks, Panthers threw for 249-289 yards.
QB Young is 4-19 as an NFL starter.
Team total: over 6-5-1
Opponents’ team total: over 8-4
Carolina is 3-5 ATS this year in games coming off a loss.
Panthers are 2-10-1 ATS last 13 games as a road underdog.
Over is 9-3 in Carolina games this year.
Panthers’ first seven losses were all by 10+ points (last two by 3-3)
Carolina is 0-9 when they give up more than 22 points..
Last shree games, Panthers are +3 in turnovers.
NFC South road teams are 7-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Eagles (10-2)
Eagles are 8-0 SU/6-2 in their last eight games.
Last three weeks, Eagles ran ball for 227.3 yards/game.
Eagles outscored last seven opponents 84-45 in first half.
Team total: over 6-1 last seven
Opponents’ team total: under 6-2 last eight
Philly is 3-1 SU/1-3 ATS at home this season.
Last six games, Eagles are +9 in turnovers.
QB Hurts is 46-22 as an NFL starter.
Eagles are 1-5 ATS in last six games as a double digit favorite.
Eagles are 6-3 ATS in last nine games coming off a win.
NFC East favorites are 6-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Teams split their last six series games.
Panthers won two of last three visits to Philly.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Jaguars @ Titans (-4)
Jaguars (2-10)
Jaguars lost last five games, by 3-5-5-46-3 points.
Jaguars covered five of their last six games.
QB Lawrence got KO’d LW (concussion), is likely out here
Team total: under 7-5
Opponents’ team total: over 5-3 last eight
Jaguars are 5-3 ATS last eight games as a road underdog.
Jaguars were held under 100 rushing yards in last five games.
Backup QB Jones is 18-27 as an NFL starter.
Six of their last eight games went over the total.
Jaguars have 13 turnovers in last eight games (minus-6)
Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in last seven AFC South home games.
Titans (3-8)
Tennessee is 2-6 SU/1-7 ATS in last eight games.
Titans scored 19 or fewer points in their losses; 31-20-32 points in wins.
Tennessee is minus-13 in turnovers, with ten takeaways.
Team total: under 8-3-1
Opponents’ team total: over 6-3-3
Titans are 0-3 ATS as a favorite this season.
Tennessee is 3-7 ATS in last 10 games as a home favorite.
Tennessee has been outscored 170-100 in second half.
QB Levis is 5-13 as an NFL starter.
Tennessee is 2-6 ATS in last eight games coming off a loss.
Titans are 2-5 ATS in last seven AFC South home games.
Jaguars won three of last four series games.
Jaguars are 1-9 SU/2-8 ATS in last 10 visits to Tennessee.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Jets @ Dolphins (-6)
Jets (3-9)
Jets are 1-8 SU/ATS in last nine games.
Three of their last four losses were by 3-1-5 points.
Jets are 3-1 if they allow 17 or less points, 0-8 if they allow 23+.
Jets are 0-6 scoring less than 21 points.
Team total: under 6-2 last eight
Opponents’ team total: over 6-1 last seven
Jets are 1-5 SU/ATS on the road this season.
Jets are 3-10 ATS last 13 AFC East road games.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Jets are 1-6 SU/ATS since their coaching change.
Last four games, Jets averaged only 253 yards/game.
Jets held last two opponents to 91-84 rushing yards.
Dolphins (5-7)
Dolphins won three of last four games, after a 1-6 skid.
Miami is 0-6 when it gives up 20+ points, 5-1 if they allow less.
Miami is 47-74 on 3rd down last six games, with Tagovailoa back at QB.
Tagovailoa is 36-24 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 6-5-1
Opponents’ team total: over 7-5
Under McDaniel, Miami is 12-8 ATS as a home favorite (2-4 TY).
In games 5-8, Dolphins ran ball for 170 yards/game.
Last four games, Miami ran ball for 63.3 yards/game.
Dolphins are 6-4 ATS in last 10 games coming off a loss.
Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in last eight AFC East home games.
Dolphins won eight of last nine series games.
Jets are 0-8 SU/2-5-1 ATS in last eight visits to Miami.
Under is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
Seahawks @ Cardinals (-2.5)
Seahawks (7-5)
Seahawks are 3-0 since their bye, giving up 17-6-21 points.
Seattle allowed 26+ points in losses, 21 or less in wins.
Seahawks are 6-4 ATS in last ten NFC West road games.
Team total: over 8-4
Opponents’ team total: over 7-5
QB Smith is 37-42 as an NFL starter, 25-23 with Seattle.
Seahawks are 10-10-1 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Seattle was held under 300 TY in four of last five games.
Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
Seattle is 4-1 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Seahawks are minus-9 in turnovers in losses, +2 in wins.
Cardinals (6-6)
Arizona is 0-2 since its bye, losing 16-6/23-22.
Cardinals are 18-12 ATS last 30 games coming off a loss.
In its six wins, Arizona outscored foes 77-30 in second half.
Team total: over 7-5
Opponents’ team total: under 8-4
QB Murray is 34-43-1 SU as an NFL starter.
Cardinals were held under 300 TY in four of six losses.
Arizona is 4-2 SU/ATS at home this season.
Under is 6-1 in their last seven games.
Cardinals are 11-8 ATS in last 19 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Arizona outgained Minnesota 406-273 LW, but lost 23-22.
Cardinals (-1) lost 16-6 at Seattle two weeks ago.
Arizona kicked two FG’s, gave up a defensive TD.
Seattle is 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in last five meetings.
Seahawks are 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS in last three visits to Arizona.
Under is 9-3 in last 12 series games.
Bills (-4) @ Rams
Bills (10-2)
Bills won their last seven games (6-1 ATS)
Buffalo gave up 35-23 points in its two losses (9-0 allow less than 23).
Buffalo outscored last six opponents 126-54 in second half.
Last eight games, Bills are +12 in turnovers (17-5).
Team total: over 10-2
Opponents’ team total: under 8-4
Buffalo is 18-12 ATS in last 30 games as a road favorite.
Bills are 24-15-1 ATS in last 40 games coming off a win.
QB Allen is 78-37 as an NFL starter.
Last seven Buffalo games went over the total.
Buffalo is 6-6-1 ATS in last 12 games vs NFC opponents.
Bills held four of last six opponents under 300 TY.
Rams (6-6)
Rams won five of their last seven games, after a 1-4 start.
Rams are 2-6 scoring less than 26 points, 4-0 scoring 26+.
Nine of their 12 games were decided by 8 or fewer points.
Last five games, Rams are only 12-50 on third down.
Team total: under 8-4
Opponents’ team total: under 5-2-1 last seven
Rams are 3-3 SU/2-4 ATS in home games this season.
Last seven games, Rams are +5 in turnovers.
Rams are 8-5-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
Rams are 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog.
Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
Rams are 8-13-1 ATS in last 22 games vs AFC opponents.
Buffalo won/covered last three series games.
Bills won/covered last three visits to Los Angeles.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Bears @ 49ers (-4)
Bears (4-8)
Bears lost last five games, four of then by 3 or fewer points.
Bears fired their coach LW, their OC three weeks ago.
Chicago converted 22 of last 48 third down plays, an improvement.
It is unclear how firing the coach helps the rookie QB.
Team total: under 6-5-1
Opponents’ team total: under 9-3
Bears are 8-13-1 ATS last 22 games as a road underdog.
Chicago is 13-14-2 ATS in last 29 games coming off a loss.
Bears ran ball for less than 80 yards in four of last five games.
Last five games, Bears are 0-5 despite being +5 in turnovers.
Chicago is 0-7 if they score less than 24 points.
NFC North underdogs are 5-3 ATS inion-divisional games.
49ers (5-7)
49ers lost last three games, are 0-4 ATS since their bye.
49ers are 1-6 when they score less than 30 points.
Last four weeks, 49ers are minus-7 in turnovers. .
49ers are 0-6 when they gain less than 400 yards.
Team total: under 7-5
Opponents’ team total: over 8-3-1
Star RB McCaffrey is likely out for the year.
49ers are 3-3 SU/ATS as a home favorite TY.
49ers are 12-9 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
QB Purdy is 26-11 as an NFL starter.
Over is 7-3 in their last four ten games.
NFC West favorites are 6-7-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
Teams split last eight series games.
Bears won their last two visits to Santa Clara.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Chargers @ Chiefs (-3.5)
Chargers (8-4)
Chargers won/covered five of last six games.
LA is 3-4 scoring 23 or fewer points, 5-0 scoring 24+.
Last eight games, Chargers outscored foes 154-63 in 1st half.
Team total: over 7-5
Opponents’ team total: under 7-4-1
Chargers are 0-4-1 ATS last five games as road underdogs.
Bolts are 3-6-1 ATS last 10 AFC West road games.
Chargers are 10-9-3 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
QB Herbert is 38-37 as an NFL starter.
Under is 5-1 in their last roadgames.
Chargers are 3-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Chiefs (11-1)
Chiefs are 11-1, but they’re 0-6 ATS last six games.
Kansas City has only one win this year by more than 10 points.
Chiefs are 11-21 ATS in last 32 games coming off a win.
Chiefs ran for less than 80 yards in three of last four games.
Team total: over 5-3 last eight
Opponents’ team total: over 5-1 last six
Chiefs are 16-21 ATS in last 37 games as a home favorite.
QB Mahomes is 101-26 as an NFL starter.
Chiefs are 4-10 ATS last 14 AFC West home games.
Chiefs have only three takeaways in last six games (minus-1).
Chiefs are 9-0 in games decided by 7 or less points.
Under is 3-1 in Chiefs’ last four home games.
Chiefs (-7.5) won 17 -10 at SoFi in Week 4, outgaining Chargers, 329-224
Chiefs are 5-0 SU/2-3 ATS in last six meetings
Chargers are 3-3 SU/4-2 ATS in last six visits to Arrowhead.
Under is 4-2 in last six series games.
Bengals (-5) @ Cowboys
Bengals (4-8)
Bengals lost last three games, giving up 35-34-44 points.
Bengals are 4-1 if they allow 24 or fewer points, 0-7 if they allow more than 24.
Over is 9-2 in their last eleven games.
Team total: over 8-4
Opponents’ team total: over 8-3-1
Bengals are 3-0 ATS as a road favorite TY.
Bengals are 10-5 ATS last 17 games as a road favorite.
Cincinnati is 9-3-2 ATS in last 14 games vs NFC teams.
Bengals are 21-11-1ATS in last 33 games coming off a loss.
Cincinnati is 1-7 SU in games decided by fewer than 7 points.
QB Burrow is 38-32-1 as an NFL starter.
Cowboys (5-7)
Dallas won its last two games, 34-26/27-20.
Cowboys are 1-7 when they allow more than 20 points.
Last six games, Cowboys gave up 24 TD’s on 78 drives.
Dallas is 22-16 ATS in last 38 games coming off a win.
Team total: under 6-3 last nine
Opponents’ team total: over 6-1 last seven
Dallas is 1-5 SU/ATS at home this season.
Backup QB Rush is 7-3 as an NFL starter.
Cowboys converted 17 of last 55 third down plays.
Over is 5-1 in Dallas home games.
Dallas was held under 100 RY in five of last seven games.
Cowboys won last five series games, covered last four.
Bengals lost 30-7/20-19 in last two visits to Dallas
Under is 6-1 in last seven meetings.