Cnotes NL 2024-2025 Schedule, Best Bets, Opinons, News !

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 24​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
TB at NYG	01:00 PM	TB -6.0 O 40.5	+500 +500
DET at IND	01:00 PM	IND +7.5 O 50.0	+500 +500
TEN at HOU	01:00 PM	TEN +7.5 O 40.0	+500 +500
DAL at WAS	01:00 PM	DAL +11.0 O 44.5	+500 +500
NE at MIA	01:00 PM	NE +7.5 U 45.5	+500 +500
MIN at CHI	01:00 PM	CHI +3.0 O 40.0	+500 +500
KC at CAR	01:00 PM	KC -11.0 O 43.0	+500 +500
DEN at LV	04:05 PM	LV +5.0 O 41.5	+500 +500
SF at GB	04:25 PM	SF +6.0 O 44.5	+500 +500
ARI at SEA	04:25 PM	SEA +1.0 U 47.0	+500 +500
PHI at LA	08:20 PM	LA +3.0 O 48.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

NFL BEST BETS FOR NOVEMBER !

11/24/2024...................10 - 7 - 0....................58.82%......................+ 16.50
11/21/2024.....................2 - 0 - 0..................100.00%......................+ 10.00
11/17/2024...................10 - 8 - 0....................55.55%......................+ 6.00
11/14/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/11/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/10/2024...................3 - 14 - 0.....................17.64%......................- 62.00
11/07/2024......................2 - 0 - 0...................100.00%......................+ 10.00
11/04/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/03/2024.....................9 - 5 - 1.....................64.28%......................+ 17.50

TOTALS........................39 - 37 - 1.....................51.31%......................- 3.50

 

[CNOTES]

Monday’s 6-pack:
Some interesting Week 13 NFL spreads
— Bears @ Detroit (-10.5, 48.5)
— Giants @ Dallas (-3.5, 38.5)
— Dolphins @ Green Bay (-3, 47.5)
— Raiders @ Kansas City (-12.5, 42.5)
— Colts (-2.5, 42.5) @ New England
— Steelers @ Cincinnati (-3, 46.5)

Quote of the Day
“We got down to the end there and it was a game-situational extravaganza. It was like Yahtzee. Everything was in there.”
Dallas coach Mike McCarthy, after the Cowboys’ 34-26 win

Monday’s quiz
In the movie Last Vegas, what well-known actress plays the lounge singer who winds up hooking up with Michael Douglas at the end of the movie?

Sunday’s quiz
2010 was the last time Alabama lost 3+ football games in a season; ESPN’s Greg McElroy was Alabama’s QB that year.

Saturday’s quiz
Other than the Chiefs (won last two titles), the 2021 Rams are the last team to win a Super Bowl- they beat Cincinnati 23-20 in that game.

***********************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday……..​

Cowboys 34, Commanders 26
Down 27-20, Washington threw an 86-yard TD pass with 0:21 left.
Seibert missed the PAT, his second missed PAT of the game.
Dallas then ran the onside kick back for a TD.
Cowboys snap a 5-game losing streak with this upset win.
This game was 3-3 at halftime.
Washington lost last three games, after a 7-2 start.
Commanders allowed 26+ points in all five losses.
QB Daniels threw for 275 yards, 2 TDs, ran for 74 yards and another TD. This was first game in NFL history with 2 missed PAT’s, 2 kick returns for TDs and also a blocked punt.

Titans 32, Texans 27
Titans’ first three drives: 22 plays, 212 yards, 17 points.
Tennessee led 20-17 at halftime.
Houston took 24-23 lead on pick-6 0:04 left in 3rd quarter.
Titans went ahead for good on 70-yard TD pass with 9:35 left.
Titans scored 17 or fewer points in their losses; 31-20-32 points in wins.
Houston is 2-4 in last six games, after a 5-1 start.
Texans are 2-5 when they give up more than 20 points.
Houston is 5-15 ATS last 20 games as a home favorite.
Texans are 2-7 ATS in last nine AFC South home games.

Vikings 30, Bears 27, OT
Minnesota drove 83 yards, kicked game-winning FG in OT.
Bears had scored 11 points in last 0:22 of regulation to tie game.
Bears lost their last five games, three of them by 3 or fewer points.
Vikings won/covered their last five visits to Chicago
Bears are 3-11 ATS in last 14 NFC North home games.
Minnesota is 8-2-2 ATS in last 12 games as road favorite.
Addison caught 8 passes for 162 yards and a TD.
Minnesota scored 30 points despite Jefferson catching 2 passes for 27 yards.
Last three years, Vikings have 23 wins by 8 or fewer points, most in NFL.
Vikings are 9-0 when they allow less than 30 points.

Chiefs 30, Panthers 27
Chiefs led 27-16 after third quarter.
Chiefs’ first five drives: 52 plays, 319 yards, 27 points.
Carolina drove 51 yards, tied game on TD with 1:49 left.
Kansas City then drove 57 yards, kick game-winning FG at gun.
Chiefs are 10-1 SU; they’re 0-5 ATS in last five games.
Kansas City ran ball for 165 yards, their 2nd-most this season.
Over is 8-3 in Carolina games this year.
Panthers’ opponents’ team total: over 8-3

Famous birthdays, November 25
John Laroquette, 77
Bernie Kosar, 61
Jill Hennessy, 56
Anthony Peeler, 55
Donovan McNabb, 48
Nick Swisher, 44
Alec Burleson, 26
Jaylen Waddle, 26
Blake Corum, 24

Dolphins 34, Patriots 15
Miami won last three games, giving up 15-19-15 points.
Dolphins led 31-0 after the third quarter.
Last six weeks, Dolphins outscored foes 77-25 in 1st half.
Miami is now 7-1 in last eight games vs New England.
New England’s first seven drives: 37 plays, 160 yards, no points.
Patriots are 6-14 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
New England is 10-22-1 ATS in last 33 games as an underdog.
Patriots are 32-48 since Tom Brady left town.

Buccaneers 30, Giants 7
Buccaneers’ first six drives: 52 plays, 366 yards, 30 points.
Tampa Bay led 23-0 at halftime.
Mayfield threw for 294 yards, also ran for a TD.
Buccaneers’ team total: over 9-2
Giants in first half: 17 plays, 46 yards, 3 punts, no points.
Giants lost their last six games (0-6 ATS).
Giants are 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS at home, losing by 22-5-10-25-5-23 points.
Giants haven’t had a positive turnover ratio in any game TY.

Lions 24, Colts 6
Detroit won its last nine games (8-1 ATS).
Last five games, Lions outscored opponents 77-11 in 2nd half.
Detroit is 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS on road this season.
Opponents have converted 24 of last 84 third down plays.
Under Campbell, Lions are 8-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Colts in second half: 20 plays, 94 yards, no points.
Colts are 6-9 ATS last 15 games as a home underdog.
AFC South underdogs are 9-15 ATS in non-divisional games.

Broncos 29, Raiders 19
Raiders led 13-9 at halftime.
Denver in 2nd half: 38 plays, 163 yards, 20 points.
Raiders in 2nd half: 44 plays, 180 yards, 6 points.
Denver is 6-0 if they score more than 20 points, 1-5 if they score 20 or less.
Last five weeks, Broncos converted 36-70 third down plays.
Raiders are 0-7 SU/2-5 ATS in last seven games
Raiders have 22 turnovers in 11 games (minus-17).
Raiders’ opponents’ team total: over 8-3
QB Minshew broke his collarbone, is out for year.
First time in nine years Denver won at the Raiders.

Packers 38, 49ers 10
Packers won six of their last seven games.
Green Bay’s first three drives: 34 plays, 187 yards, 17 points.
Green Bay outscored last eight foes 128-58 in second half.
Packers out rushed San Francisco, 169-44.
Backup QB Allen was 17-29/199 passing (first start since 2022)
49ers are 1-6 when they score less than 30 points.
49ers are 0-5 when they gain less than 400 yards.
San Francisco is +7 in turnovers in wins, minus-7 in losses.

Seahawks 16, Cardinals 6
Seattle’s only offensive TD came on a 61-yard drive just before halftime.
Seahawks scored a defensive TD on a pick-6 in third quarter.
Seattle allowed 26+ points in losses, 20 or less in wins.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Arizona was 3-12 on third down, Seahawks 7-14.
Cardinals are 1-4 SU/ATS in last five visits to Seattle.
Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in last seven NFC West road games.
QB Murray is 34-42-1 SU as an NFL starter.
These teams are for first atop the NFC West.

Eagles 37, Rams 20
Eagles led 20-14 at halftime.
Barkley ran 70 yards for TD on first play of 3rd quarter.
Barkley ran ball 26 times for 255 yards, 2 TD’s.
Eagles are 7-0 SU/5-2 in their last seven games overall.
Philly was 9-15 on third down, Rams 0-8.
Last four games, Rams are only 8-41 on third down.
Eagles are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Rams are 1-6 scoring less than 26 points, 4-0 scoring 26+.

College basketball notes……..

— LSU 109, Central Florida 102, 3 OTs
UCF led 38-18 late in first half.
LSU is 5-1, with the #27 eFG% defense.

— Drake 81, Vanderbilt 70
MVC’s Bulldogs win Charleston tournament, with 4 starters poached from a D2 team.
Bulldogs shot 61.5% inside the arc.
6-4 junior Stirtz had 16 points, 11 assists.

— Bradley 80, Middle Tennessee 69
MVC’s Braves win tournament at Coastal Carolina.
Bradley starts four seniors; they shot 10-22 on the arc.
Braves are #33 team in country in continuity.

— Georgia 66, St John’s 63
Dawgs are rebounding 43.7% of their missed shots (#5 in country)
St John’s had 21 offensive boards, but shot 2-19 on the arc.
Rough 1-2 trip to Atlantis, with losses by 1-3 points.

— Kennesaw State 79, Rutgers 77
Kennesaw led by 18 at halftime.
Owls out-rebounded Rutgers, 46-24.
Kennesaw survived being minus-13 in turnovers (22-9).

— Wisconsin 81, Pitt 75
Wisconsin is 7-0, scoring 79+ points in every game.
Badgers are playing pace #152, their fastest pace in at least 28 years.
Badgers are shooting 86.5% on foul line, #1 in country.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Monday, November 25

 

[ozzy44]

Baltimore @ LA Chargers +3, Total 51​

Chargers are 1-15 SU in their last 16 games as the underdog including 10 straight losses

UNDER is 11-2 LA Chargers’ last 13 MNF games.

Ravens are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games played in Week 12.

OVER is 9-2 Baltimore’s last 11 games.

OVER is 6-1 Baltimore’s last 7 games on the road.

OVER is 5-1 Ravens past 6 MNF games

Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at Chargers

Ravens are 9-2 ATS past 11 MNF road games

UNDER is 19-6 LA Chargers’ last 25 games.

Chargers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home.

UNDER is 12-5 LA Chargers’ last 17 conference games

UNDER is 15-6 LA Chargers’ last 21 games played on a Monday

 

[ozzy44]

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 13-13 SU and 15-10-1 ATS (60%) dating back to September 2021. The last 24 of these games have seen Under the total go 18-4-2 (81.8%) as well, games producing just 37.5 PPG.
Systems Match: PLAY LA CHARGERS (+2.5 vs BAL), also PLAY UNDER in BAL-LAC (o/u at 50)

In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on an 17-18 SU and 21-14 ATS (60%) surge since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (+2.5 vs. BAL)

Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 37-33 SU but just 25-43-2 ATS (36.8%) in the last 70 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (+2.5 vs. BAL)

UNDER the total MNF Team Trends
LA Chargers 11-2 UNDER L13
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-LAC (o/u at 50)

BALTIMORE at (274) LA CHARGERS
* BALTIMORE is 13-12 SU and 18-6 ATS vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7% since 2020
* BALTIMORE is 41-22 ATS (65.1%) in road/neutral games since 2017
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-2.5 at LAC)

* LA CHARGERS are 61-29 UNDER the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
System Match: PLAY UNDER in BAL-LAC (o/u at 51)

BALTIMORE at (274) LA CHARGERS
* Road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last six of the BAL-LAC series
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE ATS


Sunday, Nov. 8
8:15pm ET on ESPN
Lamar Jackson vs. Justin Herbert

MNF Overs Surge in 2024 Despite High Totals​

➤Monday Night Football overs have been the trend in 2024. They aer 10-4 to the over, going over by 5.8 PPG. With an over on MNF, it would be the 2nd-best year in the last 20 years for overs on MNF behind 2008.

With a high total, buyer beware. On the other side, MNF totals of 49+ are just 24-35 to the over since 2010,

Lamar Jackson Shines in Tight Spread Games​

➤As either a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog, Lamar is 25-6 ATS in his career in the regular season.

When Jackson is favored by more than 3 points in his career, he is 25-35-1 ATS, including the playoffs.

Lamar Jackson Rules Regular Season Night Games​

➤Lamar Jackson is the king of night games during the regular season. He is 19-5 SU (79%) at night, the best win pct of any QB min. 15 starts since the merger.

Lamar Jackson: 19-5 SU
Steve Young: 23-7 SU
Ken Stabler: 15-5-1 SU
Joe Montana: 22-8 SU

Of note, Lamar is 0-2 SU in night games during the playoffs.

Lamar’s Mixed ATS Record After SU Losses​

➤Lamar was 4-0 ATS last year after a SU loss. In 2024, he is 2-1 ATS after a loss.

In his career, Lamar is just 11-11 ATS after a SU loss, including 6-2 ATS at a road or neutral site and 5-9 ATS at home after a loss

After a SU loss, Lamar has been favored by less than 3 pts or a dog six times and he is 6-0 ATS.

Chargers’ Defense Dominates First Halves This Season​

➤Chargers were the 9th team in the Super Bowl era to allow 20 points or fewer in each of the first 9 games of a season. Last week they allowed the Bengals to get to 27 pts with their second half surge.

Chargers defense has allowed 7 pts or less in ten straight first halves entering this week: 7, 3, 5, 7, 0, 7, 7, 0, 7, 6

Herbert’s Historic Second-Half ATS Struggles​

➤Herbert has struggled against the second-half spread in his career (32.4% ATS), but even more so at night at 4-14-1 2H ATS in his career, including 2-11-1 2H ATS when the Chargers had a lead entering the half.

Herbert is 22-46-5 (32%) against the second-half spread in his career. In the past 20 seasons, he ranks 261st of 262 QBs in second-half ATS profitability, ahead of only Matthew Stafford. He’s 11-31-2 against the second-half spread when leading at halftime (-$2,108 — third-worst in NFL since 2005).

Chargers Seek Rare Four-Game Home Cover Streak​

➤Chargers aren’t historically great home teams. Entering this matchup, they’ve covered three in a row at home for the first time since the 2014 season.

The Chargers haven’t covered the spread in 4 straight home games since the 2007 season, when they covered seven straight at home.

Ravens Thrive After Facing Steelers​

➤Not a huge issue. In franchise history, the Ravens are 25-7 SU when listed as a favorite the week after facing the Steelers.

Lamar’s Success Against First-Time Opposing Coaches​

➤Jim Harbaugh has never faced Lamar Jackson prior to this week. In Lamar Jackson’s 94 career starts, he has faced a coach for the first time 43 times – he is 36-7 SU (85%), 23-20 ATS in those games. In a coach's first two games vs. Lamar, Jackson is 51-16 SU, 35-31-1 ATS. In a coach's 3rd game or later, Lamar is just 16-11 SU and 15-12 ATS.

Lamar’s First Half Road ATS Success Slips in 2024​

➤Away from home, Lamar is 31-14-1 against the first half spread in his career, but just 2-4 1H ATS this season

 

[skoda]

Great work ”You All”

 

[CNOTES]

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 25​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
BAL at LAC	08:15 PM	BAL -2.5 O 50.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

NFL BEST BETS FOR NOVEMBER !

11/25/2024.....................2 - 0 - 0..................100.00%......................+ 10.00
11/24/2024...................10 - 7 - 0....................58.82%......................+ 16.50
11/21/2024.....................2 - 0 - 0..................100.00%......................+ 10.00
11/17/2024...................10 - 8 - 0....................55.55%......................+ 6.00
11/14/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/11/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/10/2024...................3 - 14 - 0.....................17.64%......................- 62.00
11/07/2024......................2 - 0 - 0...................100.00%......................+ 10.00
11/04/2024.....................1 - 1 - 0.....................50.00%......................- 0.50
11/03/2024.....................9 - 5 - 1.....................64.28%......................+ 17.50

TOTALS........................41 - 37 - 1.....................52.56%......................-+ 6.50

 

[CNOTES]

Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Some interesting college football spreads
— South Carolina @ Clemson (-2.5)
— Louisville (-3.5) @ Kentucky
— Kansas @ Baylor (-1)
— Notre Dame (-7.5) @ USC
— Auburn @ Alabama (-11.5)
— Arizona State (-9) @ Arizona

Quote of the Day
“I’ve been at the top. I feel like I’ve been at the bottom—you just got to react the same regardless of what it is. I know I’m going to have a good game again. I know I’m going to have a bad game again. I got to ride the wave, get to the next one and get through it. I jokingly say all the time you only remember your last game.”
Broncos QB Bo Nix

Tuesday’s quiz
Who was the Broncos’ QB, the last time they made the playoffs?

Monday’s quiz
In the movie Last Vegas, Mary Steenburgen plays the lounge singer who winds up hooking up with Michael Douglas at the end of the movie.

Sunday’s quiz
2010 was the last time Alabama lost 3+ football games in a season; ESPN’s Greg McElroy was Alabama’s QB that year.

*****************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Early season college basketball trends​

— Memphis 99, UConn 97, OT
Tigers led by 13 with 4:00 left in game, but it went to OT.
Memphis was 29-40 on foul line, UConn 19-24
Memphis was 12-22 on arc, UConn 14-30
Six of the eight players Memphis used are seniors.

— Modern college basketball- Memphis’ roster is mostly transfers:
PJ Haggerty- six games at TCU, 30 games at Tulsa
Tyrese Hunter- 35 games at Iowa State, 71 games at Texas
Dain Dainja- 3 games at Baylor, 71 games at Illinois.
Colby Rogers- 47 games at Cal Poly, 28 games at Siena, 33 games at Wichita
PJ Carter- 11 games at Campbell, a year at a junior college, 30 games at UTSA
Nicholas Jourdain- 74 games at Temple.
Moussa Cisse- 29 games at Memphis, 61 games at Oklahoma State, 26 games at Ole Miss, now he is back in Memphis.
Memphis is #6 in country in experience, #319 in continuity. An older team that figures to get better as they play together more.

— PJ Haggerty took 298 foul shots for Tulsa last year, 2nd most in country (Zach Edey, 436).

College basketball trends (these records are all against the spread, thru Sunday)……..
I’ll list the leagues as ranked on Kenpom.com

— SEC
23-16 ATS as a favorite, 7-7 as underdog, 9-6 on neutral courts

— Big X
16-29 ATS as a favorite, 7-9 as underdog, 4-11 on neutral courts

— Big 18
29-35 ATS as a favorite, 8-6 as underdog, 4-3 on neutral courts

— Big East
14-18 ATS as a favorite, 6-2 as underdog, 6-2 on neutral courts

— ACC
20-21 ATS as a favorite, 11-12 as underdog, 7-8 on neutral courts

— Mountain West
14-13 ATS as a favorite, 7-8 as underdog, 2-3 on neutral courts

— Famous birthdays, November 26
Jan Stenerud, 82
Art Shell, 78
Richie Hebner, 77
Roger Wehrli, 77
Harry Carson, 71
Bob Walk, 68
Mike Moore, 65
Harold Reynolds, 64
Chuck Finley, 62
Mario Elie, 61
Shawn Kemp, 55
Cal Raleigh, 28

— Atlantic 15
15-18 ATS as a favorite, 5-13 as underdog, 5-10 on neutral courts

— West Coast
16-16 ATS as a favorite, 9-12 as underdog, 3-3 on neutral courts

— American
16-16 ATS as a favorite, 9-11 as underdog, 4-11 on neutral courts

— Conference USA
10-5 ATS as a favorite, 16-9 as underdog, 7-2 on neutral courts

— Missouri Valley
15-13 ATS as a favorite, 16-11 as underdog, 8-4 on neutral courts

— WAC
3-15 ATS as a favorite, 7-12 as underdog, 1-1 on neutral courts

— Big West
13-11 ATS as a favorite, 20-13 as underdog, 5-1 on neutral courts
It is still very early in the college basketball season; everyone is still learning which teams have how much and that includes the coaches.

 

[Udog]

WEEK 13

Thursday, November 28

Friday, November 29

Sunday, December 1

Monday, December 2

 

[Udog]

NFL

Week 13

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Trend Report
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Chicago vs Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

NY Giants vs Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Giants's last 12 games
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants

Miami vs Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Green Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Las Vegas vs Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games

Arizona vs Minnesota
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Minnesota is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

LA Chargers vs Atlanta
LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Chargers's last 10 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers

Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 20-4 SU in its last 24 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games

Houston vs Jacksonville
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Houston is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Houston

Indianapolis vs New England
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

Seattle vs NY Jets
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing Seattle

Tennessee vs Washington
Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee

LA Rams vs New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Rams's last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams's last 10 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams

Tampa Bay vs Carolina
Tampa Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Carolina
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games at home

Philadelphia vs Baltimore
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baltimore's last 8 games
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

San Francisco vs Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games on the road
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Cleveland vs Denver
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Cleveland's last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 13

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday’s 6-pack:
— Bucks 106, Heat 103- Milwaukee has won five in a row, is now 9-9.
— Rockets 117, Minnesota 111 OT- Alperen Sengun had a triple double.
— Spurs 128, Jazz 115- Spurs were +34 in 22:00 sub Wesley played.
— Suns 127, Lakers 100- Phoenix outscored LA 36-18 in third quarter.
— Bulls 127, Wizards 108- Bulls outscored Washington 40-18 in 2nd quarter.
— San Diego State 71, Creighton 53- Aztecs’ subs outscored Creighton’s bench 18-7.

Quote of the Day
“I don’t think that’s crazy at all. This is a Super Bowl-winning coach. Mike McCarthy has been there and done that. He has great ideas. We got a lot of football left.”
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones

Wednesday’s quiz
Who did the Detroit Lions beat, the last time they won on Thnaksgiving Day?

Tuesday’s quiz
Peyton Manning was the Broncos’ QB, the last time they made the playoffs, in 2015.

Monday’s quiz
In the movie Last Vegas, Mary Steenburgen plays the lounge singer who winds up hooking up with Michael Douglas at the end of the movie.

*******************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….​

— Dodgers signed P Blake Snell for five years, $182M (36.4M/year).
Last year, Snell was 5-3, 3.12 in 20 starts for the Giants; he was 14-9, 2.25 in 32 starts for San Diego the year before. He is 76-58, 3.19 in 211 career starts.
Dodger players got a full World Series share of $477,441 apiece- they voted that more people than usual get full shares, so the full share was less than what Ranger, Astro players got in the previous two years.

— Kansas 75, Duke 72
Kansas star Dickinson played only 24:00; he was ejected for a flagrant foul.
Duke is 4-2, losing this game and by 5 to Kentucky.
Kansas is #1 in country in experience, #110 in continuity; they’re off to a 6-0 start.

— Alabama 85, Houston 80 OT
Houston led by 4 with 1:03 left in regulation.
Alabama was 30-41 on foul line, Cougars 26-33.
LJ Cryer was 9-26 from floor, had 2 assists; his job is to shoot.

— Colorado 73, UConn 72
Huskies led by 11 late in the first half.
UConn lost last two games, by total of three points.
In those games, UConn was 29-37 on foul line; opponents, 47-68.
UConn-Dayton is an unlikely 7th-place game Wednesday in Maui.

— Samford 103, North Dakota State 98, OT
Bison led by 15 with 4:38 left to play. Yikes.
Samford shot 73% inside arc, only 13-23 on foul line.
North Dakota State was 20-39 on arc; one of their subs was 7-8.

— Wyoming 64, Tulane 63
Tulane led by 16 with 13:58 left in the game.
Teams combined to shoot 8-42 on the arc.
Jordan Nesbitt had 10 points, 13 rebounds; he didn’t start.

— In Division I college hoop this year, there are 25 sets of brothers who are teammates.

— Tuesday night college basketball upsets:
Colorado (+14.5) 73, UConn 72
Western Illinois (+11.5) 64, South Alabama 63
Boston College (+9.5) 63, Boise State 61
Cal-Fullerton (+5.5) 72, Pepperdine

— Famous birthdays, November 27:
Dave Giusti, 85
Don Strock, 74
Curtis Armstrong, 71
AJ Duhe, 69
Michael Rispoli, 64
Brooke Langton, 54
Nick Van Exel, 53
Ivan Rodriguez, 53
Adam Archuleta, 47
Jimmy Rollins, 46
Lamarcus Joyner, 34
Eloy Jimenez, 28

— North Carolina fired football coach Mack Brown; the 73-year old Brown has UNC headed to a bowl games for the sixth year in a row, but the school decided to move on.
Brown is 282-149-1 as a head coach, 113-78-1 in Chapel Hill, 14-12 in bowl games.

— East Carolina fired its football coach last month when they were 3-4; the interim coach has gone 4-0 since then, so now interim coach Blake Harrell has become head coach Blake Harrell.
ECU has scored 45.8 ppg in the four games with Harrell in charge; they’re bowl eligible.

— One of the teams Harrell beat was Tulsa (38-31); they fired football coach Kevin Wilson Sunday, a day after the Hurricane lost 63-30 at South Florida. Wilson was 7-16 in his two years at Tulsa; wide receivers coach/recruiting coordinator Ryan Switzer is the interim coach.

— Texas-Texas A&M are playing this year for the first time since 2011, when they were big rivals in the Big X. Now they’re SEC rivals; last time they played, Longhorns won 27-25 on a walk-off field goal by Justin Tucker, now the Ravens’ kicker.

— Since 2005, double digit favorites are 9-0 ATS in NFL Thanksgiving Day games.

— With Tampa Bay Rays playing home games at a spring trining facility next year, MLB juggled the Rays’ schedule a little bit, I’m guessing to keep as many of their games as possible out of the extreme summer heat in Florida.
47 of Tampa Bay’s first 59 games will be at home; 69 of their last 103 games are on the road.

— 33-year old lefty Yusei Kikuchi signed a 3-year, $63M contract with the Los Angeles Angels; Kikuchi was 5-1, 2.70 in ten starts for the Astros LY, after they acquired him from Toronto.
In his MLB career, Kikuchi is 41-47, 4.57 in 154 starts.

— There is a NFL survivor pool at Circa in Las Vegas; it costs $1,000 to get in- there were 14,266 entries this year, so the prize pool is $14,266,000.
Before last week, there were 99 people left in the survivor pool; one genius didn’t put a pick in, so he’s out. 33 people had Washington, eight others had Houston, so they’re below 60 people left in the pool.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
NBA leaders in minutes per game:
37.6— Nikola Jokic, Den
36.6— Luka Doncic, Dal
36.4— Jaylen Brown, Bos
36.3— DeMar DeRozan, Sac
36.3— Michael Porter, Den
35.9— Damian Lillard, Milw

Quote of the Day
“During this time of the year, I am constantly being reminded of the things in my life that I am most thankful for. Baseball is one of them. Baseball has been a part of my life for as long as I can remember, and for the rest of my life I will be thankful for the opportunities and experiences it has given me. Time is precious.
I’m incredibly grateful for all the years I spent playing the game I love, but now it is time for me to spend it with the people who I’m most thankful for. Thank you to all of you who have been there for me throughout the years. It’s been an unbelievable ride.”
Brandon Crawford, who retired this week after 14 years in the major leagues

Thursday’s quiz
Hall of Fame QB Johnny Unitas played 18 years in the NFL, the first 17 for the Baltimore Colts; what team did Unitas play for in his last season?

Wednesday’s quiz
Detroit Lions beat the Vikings 16-13 in 2016, the last time Detroit won on Thanksgiving Day.

Tuesday’s quiz
Peyton Manning was the Broncos’ QB, the last time they made the playoffs, in 2015.

****************************************

Thursday’s Den: Happy Thanksgiving…….​

— Other than March, this might be the best week of the year for college basketball; ton of games on TV from all over the country, with games on very late at night. Good stuff.

— Auburn 90, Memphis 76
Auburn wins Maui Classic, scoring 86 ppg in three games.
Auburn is 7-0 already, with four top 40 wins.
Auburn shot 72% inside the arc.

— Alabama 95, Rutgers 90
Alabama was 10-25 on the arc, Rutgers 2-13
Bailey/Harper combined for 59 points for Rutgers; they’re both freshmen.
Alabama survived being minus-11 (20-9) in turnovers.

— Dayton 85, UConn 67
Defending national champ Huskies went 0-3 at the Maui Classic.
UConn is 4-3; four teams they beat are all ranked #321 or lower.

— West Virginia 86, Gonzaga 78 OT
Zags led by 5 with 0:25 left in regulation.
Senior G Small scored 31 points, had 7 rebounds for WVU
Gonzaga star Nembhard was 1-10 from the floor.

— Michigan State 94, North Carolina 91 OT
Spartans led by 14 late in first half.
UNC is 1-3 vs top 100 teams; they trailed by 21 in the one win.
Spartans are 6-2 despite shooting 22.4% on the arc (#361)

— Oregon 78, San Diego State 68
Ducks were 18-26 on foul line, Aztecs 4-8
Oregon out-rebounded San Diego State, 41-24.
Ducks are 7-0, with three top 100 wins.

— There were 12 teams that won Wednesday that trailed at one time by 10+ points.

— Wednesday night college basketball upsets:
West Virginia (+14.5) 86, Gonzaga 78 OT
Western Michigan (+9) 73, Youngstown State 62
Dayton (+7.5) 85, UConn 67
Appalachian State (+7) 66, Sam Houston State 63
Sacramento State (+6.5) 63, Air Force 61
Georgia State (+4.5) 74, Tulsa 71
Michigan State (+4.5) 94, North Carolina 91 OT

— Famous birthdays, November 28:
Paul Warfield, 82
Ed Harris, 74
S. Epatha Merkerson, 72
Preston Dennard, 69
Judd Nelson, 65
Jon Stewart, 62
Walt Weiss, 61
Johnny Newman, 61
John Burkett, 60
Matt Williams, 59
Leandro Barbosa, 42
Andrew Bogut, 40

— Louisville 89, Indiana 61
Cardinals are 4-1; experience team #10, continuity team #352
Last three years, Louisville was 25-71, 11-49 in ACC games.
Bringing in a boatload of transfers is making a big difference.

— Texas A&M 77, Creighton 73
Aggies scored 27 points in 1st half, 50 in 2nd half.
Creighton was 13-37 on the arc, 10-23 inside arc.
Bluejays are 0-3 vs top 100 teams, scoring 63 ppg.

— Sacramento State 63, Air Force 61
Hornets trailed by 17 late in first half.
Sac State shot 9-21 on arc (42.9%), 13-35 (37.1%) inside arc.

— Oklahoma 79, Providence 77
Senior G Elvis scored 26 points, had one assist- his job is to score.
Sooners shot 60% inside thew arc.
This was the first top 200 game for both teams.

— Michigan 78, Xavier 53
Wolverines shot 11-22 on the arc.
Michigan is 6-1, with the #15 eFG% in country.
New coach May is really good; he led FAU to Final 4 two years ago.

— Samford 84, Utah Valley 76
Samford starts 3 seniors; they trailed by 13 with 10:42 left to play.
Samford forced 23 turnovers (+10); they shot 55.8% inside arc.
Utah Valley started three sophs, two juniors. Experience matters.

— If you watch a basketball game on TV with no sound on, it is interesting to see how much contact the refs allow; watching the second half of Dayton-UConn as I type this, the officials are letting the guys play. You see lot of contact, without lot of fouls called.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Thursday, November 28

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 13

Thursday’s games
Bears @ Lions (-10)
Bears (4-7)
Bears lost last five games, three of then by 3 or fewer points.
Bears fired their offensive coordinator two weeks ago.
Chicago is 15-33 on third down since then, an improvement.
Last four games, Bears were outscored 43-26 in second half.
Team total: under 6-4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 8-3


Under Eberflus, Bears are 7-13-1 ATS on road underdog.
Chicago is 3-6 ATS in last nine NFC North road games.
Under Eberflus, Chicago is 12-14-2 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Last four games, Bears are 0-4 despite being +4 in turnovers.
Chicago is 0-6 if they score less than 24 points.


Lions (10-1)
Detroit won its last nine games (8-1 ATS).
However, Lions have lost the last seven years on Thanksgiving Day.
Last five games, Lions outscored opponents 77-11 in 2nd half.
Detroit is 4-1 SU/ATS at home this season.
Opponents have converted only 24 of last 83 third down plays.
Team total: over 5-3 last eight
Opponents’ team total: under 8-3


Under Campbell, Lions are 13-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 7-2 ATS in last nine NFC North home games.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 21-9 ATS in games coming off a win.
Lions have outscored opponents 47-16 in last 2:00 of each half.
QB Goff is 80-55-1 as an NFL starter, 36-25-1 with Detroit.
Last two games, Lions didn’t allow a TD, on 18 drives.


Lions won three of last four meetings.
Bears are 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in last six visits to Detroit.
Under is 4-2 in last six series games.


Giants @ Cowboys (-10.5)
Giants (2-9)
Giants have QB issues; check status whether DeVito/Lock starts.
Giants are 0-6 SU/ATS in last six starts.
Giants are 2-3 SU/ATS on road, losing by 3-8-3 points.
Giants haven’t had a positive turnover ratio in any games TY.
Team total: under 7-4
Opponents’ team total: over 5-0 last five


Last six games, Giants were outscored 84-19 in first half.
Under Daboll, Giants are 11-8 ATS as a road underdog
Under Daboll, Giants are 14-11-1 ATS coming off a loss.
QB DeVito is 3-4 as an NFL starter; Lock is 9-14.
Under is 8-3 in their games this season.
Three of Giants nine losses were by more than 10 points.


Cowboys (3-7)
Dallas snapped 5-game skid with win at Washington LW.
Cowboys are 1-7 when they allow more than 17 points.
Last six games, Cowboys gave up 22 TD’s on 67 drives.
Dallas is 21-16 ATS in last 37 games coming off a win.
Team total: under 6-2 last eight
Opponents’ team total: over 5-1 last six


2nd straight short week for Cowboys; third game in 12 days.
Dallas is 0-5 SU/ATS at home this season.
Backup QB Rush is 6-3 as an NFL starter (most starts, 2022).
Cowboys converted 10 of last 40 third down plays.
Over is 4-1 in Dallas home games.
Dallas was held under 100 RY in eight of last ten games.


Cowboys (-5.5) won 20-15 in New Jersey in Week 4.
Cowboys are 8-0 SU/6-2 ATS in last eight against the Giants.
Giants are 0-7 SU/2-5 ATS in last seven visits to Dallas.
Over is 5-0 in Giants’ last five visits to Dallas.


Dolphins @ Packers (-3.5)
Dolphins (5-6)
Dolphins won last three games, giving up 15-19-15 points.
Miami is 0-5 when it gives up 20+ points, 5-1 if they allow less.
Miami is 33-60 on 3rd down last five games, with Tagovailoa back at QB.
Tagovailoa is 36-23 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 6-4-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2 last five


Under McDaniel, Miami is 6-7 ATS as a road underdog (2-2 TY).
Last six weeks, Dolphins outscored foes 77-25 in 1st half, but went 3-3.
Dolphins are 28-19 ATS in last 47 games coming off a win.
Miami is 2-3 ATS TY in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
AFC East dogs are 5-8 ATS in non-division games away from home.


Packers (8-3)
Packers won six of last seven games (1-4 ATS in last five).
Green Bay is 4-2 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Green Bay outscored last eight foes 128-58 in second half.
Team total: under 3-2 last five
Opponents’ team total: under 8-2 last ten


GB is 7-9 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.
Packers are 20-15-1 ATS in last 36 games coming off a win.
Green Bay is 7-0 when they allow less than 24 points.
Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Green Bay is 6-8 ATS in last 14 games vs AFC opponents.
Last six games, Packers were outscored 54-9 in last 2:00 of half.


Dolphins playing in Green Bay in late November could be dicey.
Packers won three in row, five of last six series games.
Dolphins lost two of last three visits to Green Bay.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.

 

[ozzy44]

Top NFL Things To Know​

Restore The Roar​

Lions Big Fav on Thanksgiving
The Lions are currently 10.5-point favorites on Thanksgiving over the Bears. This would be Detroit's biggest favorite on Thanksgiving since 1968, as a 12-pt favorite against the Eagles

Unfortunately for the Lions, Thanksgiving hasn't been a winning day lately. Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 0-3 SU together on the holiday (2-1 ATS).

---

It's Been A While​

Cowboys, Lions Struggle
It's one or the other. The Lions and Cowboys haven't gone 2-0 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2001 and they haven't both gone 2-0 SU/ATS on Thanksgiving since 1994.

---

Chalk City​

Favorites Reign on Turkey Day
Favorites have historically dominated on Thanksgiving.

• Since 2004, favorites on Thanksgiving are 48-9 straight up (SU) and 38-19 against the spread (ATS).
• Favorites of over 10 pts are 9-0 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005 and 11-0 ATS in the Wild Card era (since 1990).
• In Wild Card era (since 1990), favorites of 7 pts or more on Thanksgiving are 29-5 SU and 25-9 ATS.

---

Big Dog Time​

More Upsets Than Ever
NFL underdogs of 6+ points are 36-23-2 ATS this season. A $100 bettor taking each on the moneyline would be up $1,000 for a +16% ROI (19-43 SU).

Through 12 weeks, the 19 SU wins for teams +6 or higher is the most since there was also exactly 19 back in 2004.

---

Home Cooking​

All Favorites
In 2024, there are no road favorites on Thanksgiving. All three home teams are listed as a favorite as of now – the first time since 2013 and 2014 there are no road favs on Thanksgiving.

---

Crowd Movement​

Public Feast
Betting Thanksgiving in the past has been as easy as following the crowds.

Favorites with 60%+ of tickets are 23-9 ATS
Public sides (51%+ of tickets) are 34-19 ATS
Public sides, who are favorites, are 30-14 ATS
Public sides are .500 ATS or better every year since 2014 and 11 of the past 12 years
Since 2005, nine teams have closed with 74% or more of the spread tickets on Thanksgiving and those sides went 9-0 SU and ATS.

Biggest Public Sides on Thanksgiving Since 2005
82%: 2023 49ers, -7 at SEA (W, 31-13)
80%: 2019 Saints, -7 at ATL (W, 26-18)
79%: 2005 Falcons, -3 at DET (W, 27-7)
77%: 2012 Patriots, -7 at NYJ (W, 49-19)
77%: 2008 Cowboys, -11.5 vs. SEA (W, 34-9)
75%: 2010 Patriots, -6 at DET (W, 45-24)
75%: 2008 Titans, -11 at DET (W, 47-10)
74%: 2016 Steelers, -8.5 at IND (W, 28-7)
74%: 2007 Colts, -13.5 at ATL (W, 31-13)

---

Deep Rooted​

Cowboys Covering Issues
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thanksgiving games after covering vs. Washington last year. They are 2-11 ATS in their past 13 Thanksgiving games dating back to 2011 — failing to cover the spread by 9.2 PPG.

Dallas won and covered on Thanksgiving last year, they haven’t won and covered consecutive games on Thanksgiving since 2008-09 behind Tony Romo.

Favorites are 36-19 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005. The Cowboys are 6-9 ATS as favorites, the rest of the NFL is 30-10 ATS on Thanksgiving.

---

A Cold Night​

Dolphins Travel To Lambeau
Average temperature in Lambeau Field Thursday night is expected to be just under 30°, with about 7-10 MPH winds.

Tua has played in 40° temperatures or colder four times with the Dolphins, Miami is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 18 PPG.

In 32° temperatures or colder in franchise history, they are 11-28 SU, including losing their last nine games in cold temperatures, since beating the Steelers in 2013 behind Ryan Tannehill.

Favorites in night games on Thanksgiving are 13-4 ATS since they started the 3-game holiday series back in 2006.

---

Low Totals​

Giants-Cowboys Low O/U
In the last 20 years, only three games on Thanksgiving have closed with an over/under below 40:

2019: Bears at Lions, 37.5 (24-20 final)
2006: Broncos at Chiefs, 39 (19-10 final)
2006: Bucs at Cowboys, 39 (38-10 final)

---

Can't Cover​

Chiefs Historic Stretch
As a favorite of 6 pts or more, the Chiefs are 6-0 SU and 0-5-1 ATS this season. As a favorite of above a full TD (7.5 or more), they are 4-0 SU and 0-4 ATS.

Forget the fact KC is undefeated SU and defeated ATS, since 1990, only one team has played at least six games as a 6+ point favorite in their first 11 games and had no covers ATS, the 1997 Packers, who were coming off a Super Bowl win in 1996, made it back to the Super Bowl in 1997 and lost to the Broncos.

---

A Bear Market?​

Chicago's Big Line
A Bears upset of the Lions on Thanksgiving depending on the closing line could make history.

Biggest Upsets on Thanksgiving since 1980
1993 — Dolphins +10 over DAL
2023 – Packers +8.5 over DET
2015 — Bears +7.5 over GB
1986 — Seahawks +7.5 over DAL

 

[ozzy44]

Best NFL Week 13 betting trends​

The trend: The Lions are 19-7 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season

The trend: The Cowboys have allowed an average of 39.1 ppg over their last six home games

The trend: The Packers are 16-5 ATS in the first quarter over their last 21 games

The trend: The Raiders have gone Over their team total in four straight games

The trend: The Texans are 9-2 SU after a loss since the start of last season

The trend: The Chargers are 8-2-1 ATS in the first half this season

The trend: The Cardinals are 0-11 SU lifetime in Minnesota

The trend: The Titans are 0-7 ATS after a win since the start of last season

The trend: The Patriots are 2-11-2 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog

The trend: The Over has hit in four straight Bengals’ home games

The trend: The Jets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog

The trend: The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played in December

The trend: These teams are a combined 18-4 to the first half Over this season Car vs. TB

The trend: Baltimore is 11-4 SU in the second half over their last 15 games

The trend: The Bills are 9-2 to the Over on their team totals this season

The trend: The Browns haven’t covered the spread in consecutive games this season

 

[ozzy44]

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Dallas: 15-1 to the Over in the last 16 home rematch games
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYG-DAL (o/u at 37.5)

Teams that lose outright to divisional rivals as double-digit favorites have bounced back in the next contest with a 14-2 SU and 12-4 ATS (75%) record since 2015
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-5.5 vs. TEN)

Rookie quarterbacks are 19-5-1 ATS (79.2%) in their last 25 Monday Night contests.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-5.5 vs. CLE)

Play on teams coming off their bye week and facing the Chargers. (Record: 13-2 SU and 14-1 ATS since ’08, 93.3%, +12.9 Units, 88% ROI, Grade 68)
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+2 vs. LAC)

NFL Streaks Betting System #6: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games ATS and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 15-28 SU but 31-10-2 ATS (75.6%) in their last 43 tries.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+12.5 at KC)

NFL Streaks Betting System #15: NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their L4 games outright have kept the momentum going with a 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS (80%) record in their last 15 tries.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10 vs. CHI)

The Colts have gone 15-2-1 ATS in pre-bye week road games since 1993, but did lose in 2022 at Dallas, their most recent try
System Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-3 at NE)

TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is on 13-2 Under the total run as a road favorite
System Match: PLAY UNDER in TB-CAR (o/u at 46.5)

In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), UNDER the total is 29-13 (69%) in the last 42.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-BUF (o/u at 45)


THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 35-40 SU and 42-31-2 ATS (57.5%) in the last 75.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+3.5 at GB)

· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 24-22 SU but 15-29-2 ATS (34.1%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 41-25 SU and 39-25-2 ATS (60.9%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-3.5 vs. MIA)

Good TNF Team Trends
Green Bay 6-4 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-3.5 vs. MIA)

UNDER the total TNF Team Trends
Miami 8-2-1 Under in the last 11
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-GB (o/u at 47)

(305) CHICAGO at (306) DETROIT
* UNDERDOGS are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the CHI-DET series
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS

(309) MIAMI at (310) GREEN BAY
* GREEN BAY is on a 5-1 SU and ATS surge versus Miami
System Match: PLAY GREEN BAY ATS

(307) NY GIANTS at (308) DALLAS
* The last five games of the NYG-DAL series in Dallas went Over total, avg 60.2 PPG
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

 

[ozzy44]

Chicago @ Detroit -10.5, Total 48.5​

Bears are 1-15 ATS in their last 16 games played in Week 13.

Bears are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games on the road.

Bears are 2-15 SU in their last 17 divisional games

Bears are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played on a Thursday.

Bears are 1-7 ATS past 8 as double-digit dog

Lions have ben double-digit favorites just 4 times in a decade and covered all four

Lions are 14-1 SU in their last 15 games as favorites

Lions are 32-9 ATS in their last 41 games

Lions are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games at home

Lions are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 divisional games

OVER is 15-6 Detroit’s last 21 games played in Week 13.

Lions have lost 7 straight Thursday home games SU

NY Giants @ Dallas -4, Total 37.5​

Cowboys are 14-1 SU in their last 15 games against NY Giants

Giants have failed to cover 6 straight games

OVER is 12-3 past 15 meetings here

Giants have lost 9 straight Thursdays, Cowboys have won 6 straight Thursdays

UNDER is 19-8 NY Giants’ last 27 games when playing as the underdog (7-20 SU)

Cowboys are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games.

Cowboys 0-7 ATS streak at home

Cowboys are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 divisional games

OVER is 15-6 Dallas’ last 21 games at home.

Miami @ Green Bay -3, Total 47​

Dolphins are 2-14 SU in their last 16 games as the underdog.

Packers are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games played in Week 13.

UNDER is 13-2 Miami’s last 15 games played on a Thursday

OVER is 11-4 Green Bay’s last 15 games played on a Thursday.

Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Miami.

Past five meetings here all played UNDER

Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 TNF road games

Packers have won 6 straight non-conference games SU