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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
College basketball teams playing the fastest tempo:
— New Mexico
— Fresno State
— Cal Poly
— Kentucky
— Alabama
— Western Kentucky

Quote of the Day
“I’m not doing another 3-game MTE again. Moving forward, we will only play home-and-homes or single-game events… I don’t think I’ll ever do a 3-game MTE again. There’s zero chance I ever do that again”
Connecticut basketball coach Dan Hurley, after going 0-3 in the Maui Classic

Tuesday’s quiz
What team did John Calipari lead to the Final Four in 1996?

Monday’s quiz
Bills’ QB Josh Allen played his college football at Wyoming

Sunday’s quiz
Miami Hurricanes lost their last five bowl games; they beat West Virginia 31-14 the last time they won a bowl, in Orlando back in 2016.

*****************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……

Broncos 41, Browns 32
Winston threw for 497 yards, four TD’s.
He also threw 3 INT’s, 2 of which were returned for Denver TD’s.
Jeudy caught nine passes for 235 yards and a TD.
Last time a Cleveland QB threw for 400+ yards? Josh McCown (457) in 2015
Nix threw a 93-yard TD pass to put Denver ahead, 28-17.
Lutz kicked 27-yard FG to put Denver ahead 34-32 with 2:54 left.
Cleveland outgained the Broncos, 552-400.
Denver is 7-0 if they score more than 20 points, 1-5 if they score 20 or less.

— Rhode Island 84, Yale 78
Archie Miller’s Rams are 8-0, albeit against schedule #337.
Yale, Charleston are only teams in top 150 that URI has played so far.
Providence @ URI is an interesting game on Saturday’s schedule.

— Washington State 68, Nevada 57
Nevada was favored by 11.5 points.
Wazzu was 12-29 on the arc, Wolf Pack 4-20.

— Purdue fired football coach Ryan Walters after going 1-11 this season, 0-11 vs I-A teams, with only three of the 11 losses by less than 17 points.
Purdue was 5-19 in Walters’ two seasons as head coach; they lost 66-0 to rival Indiana Saturday- they’re 129th in the country in offense, 130th in defense.

— Good news for Sam Houston State- they went 9-3 this year, in their 2nd year as a I-A team.
Bad news for Sam Houston State- Temple hired Sam Houston’s coach KC Keeler as their new head coach. Keeler was 97-39 overall at Sam Houston, winning the I-AA national title in 2020;

— Duke 23, Wake Forest 17
Duke threw a 39-yard TD pass on the last play of the game for a walk-off win.
Wake Forest led 17-3 with 1:00 left in the third quarter,
Duke is 9-3, with six wins by 7 or fewer points.

— Former NFL QB/Stanford alum Andrew Luck was named as the Cardinal’s general manager; he will manage aspects of both the football and business sides of the program.
On the business side, he will handle duties typically held by NFL team presidents — fundraising, sponsorships, attendance, sales, in-stadium experience and alumni relations.

For football, Luck will oversee the coaching staff, player personnel, recruiting, roster management and student-athlete experience, whatever that is.

— Chicago Cubs signed P Matthew Boyd to a 2-year deal worth $29M; Boyd will be 34 on Ground Hog Day- he was 2-2, 2.72 in eight starts for Cleveland this past year, 0-0, 0.77 in three playoff starts for the Guardians. For his career, Boyd is 46-69, 4.85 in 168 career starts, mostly with Detroit.

Famous birthdays, December 2nd:
Bobby Howfield, 88
Tom Woodeshick, 83
Jim Brewer, 73
Daryl Hannah, 64
Julianne Moore, 64
Brendan Fraser, 56
Lindsey Hunter, 54
James Laurinaitis, 38

— Washington Commanders were 4-13 last year; they’re 8-5 this year, despite playing a rookie QB, who has done really well.
Commanders were minus-14 in turnovers last year; they’re +3 this week,

— Started watching re-runs of the old TV series Criminal Minds, never watched that show much. One of the first shows I watch, the bad guy is played by Michael O’Keefe, who played Danny Noonan in the classic movie Caddyshack.
Michael O’Keefe will be 70 in April, which makes me feel old; he played Lakers owner Jack Kent Cooke in the HBO series Winning Time couple years ago.

— I’m watching the Duke-Kansas game on TV last week; the game was played at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and former Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski was sitting courtside with his wife. Sitting to Krzyzewski’s left was the actor Ken Jeong, who was in the Hangover movies.
Made me wonder what those two guys would talk about, if anything, and if Coach K had ever seem The Hangover. Funny movie.

— Colorado-Iowa State was the 5th place game at the Maui Classic, which is unusual only because those teams are in the same league now. Usually teams from the same league aren’t in the same tournament, but with all the jumping between leagues, this happened.
Same thing at the Battle for Atlantis, where Arizona-West Virginia played in the 3rd place game.

— Last year, 1,962 college basketball players entered the transfer portal, with over 1,100 of them changing teams. With 364 Division I teams now, that works out to 5+ players per team looking to jump ship.

— Dartmouth 88, Boston College 83
ACC teams aren’t supposed to lose to Ivy League teams, especially lower-level Ivy teams.
Dartmouth made 17-31 3-pointers in the game, which was last Friday.

— Notre Dame’s basketball team has a freshman guard Brady Stevens, who scored over 1,000 points in high school at Wellesley High in Massachusetts. The reason I mention this is that his father is Brad Stevens, the President of Basketball Operations for the Celtics.
 

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WEEK 14

Thursday, December 5

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Sunday, December 8

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Monday, December 9

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NFL

Week 14


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Trend Report
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Green Bay vs Detroit
Green Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home

Atlanta vs Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

Jacksonville vs Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

NY Jets vs Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing NY Jets

New Orleans vs NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of New Orleans's last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Giants's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans

Carolina vs Philadelphia
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

Cleveland vs Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Cleveland's last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 20-1 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

Las Vegas vs Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games

Seattle vs Arizona
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games

Buffalo vs LA Rams
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Rams's last 10 games when playing Buffalo
LA Rams is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

Chicago vs San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Chicago
San Francisco is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Chicago

LA Chargers vs Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games on the road
LA Chargers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Cincinnati vs Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati


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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
College basketball teams playing the slowest tempo:
— Wagner
— Virginia
— Air Force
— Minnesota
— North Texas
— Seton Hall

Quote of the Day
“I mean, they’ve been kicking everybody’s ass. So I’m fortunate enough to, again, just to be on a team that’s rolling like that. And whatever I can do to help, that’s what I’m here for.”
Jamal Adams, on why he signed recently with the Detroit Lions

Wednesday’s quiz
Who was coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers before Mike Tomlin?

Tuesday’s quiz
John Calipari led UMass to the Final Four in 1996.

Monday’s quiz
Bills’ QB Josh Allen played his college football at Wyoming

**********************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy night of basketball…….

— Rough night for the ACC; their teams went 1-8 against the SEC in their annual challenge, with Clemson’s win over Kentucky the only bright spot.

— Clemson 70, Kentucky 66
Clemson F Schieffelin was 4-20 from floor, also had 20 rebounds.
Clemson is 8-1, with three top 100 wins.
Kentucky is 7-1, splitting two top 100 games.

— Arkansas 76, Miami 73
Miami led this game by 7 with 6:51 left to play.
Arkansas was 11-23 on arc, Miami 9-29.
I’m still a little amazed that Kentucky didn’t want Calipari to coach anymore.

— Missouri 98, California 93
Cal Bears led 51-33 at halftime.
Mizzou was 32-44 inside arc, 3-9 outside arc, 25-38 on foul line.
Cal is an ACC team, by the way. No idea why, but they are.
Mizzou is off to a 7-1 start, after going 0-18 in SEC last year.

— Ole Miss 86, Louisville 63
7-1 Rebels shot 65% inside the arc.
Ole Miss was 8-20 on arc, Louisville 5-30
This was Louisville’s 4th top 60 game in the last seven days.

— Oklahoma 72, Georgia Tech 61
Tech led this game 34-30 at halftime.
Oklahoma was 26-30 on foul line, Tech 12-18.
Sooners are 8-0, with three top 100 wins, plus this win.

— South Carolina 73, Boston College 51
Gamecocks were 10-19 on the arc, BC was 2-15.
Opponents are shooting 44.6% inside arc vs Carolina (#39)
Eagles are shooting 46.3% inside arc (#298) vs schedule #284.

Famous birthdays, December 4th:
Jeff Bridges, 75
Bernard King, 68
Lee Smith, 67
Frank Reich, 63
Marisa Tomei, 60
Jeff Blake, 54
Blake Snell, 32
Paul Blackburn, 31
Jackson Holliday, 21

— Clemson won the last eight times they played in the ACC football championship game; last time they lost was in 2009, 39-34 to Georgia Tech.

— Michigan 67, Wisconsin 64
Wolverines are off to a 7-1 start, after going 8-24 LY.
Michigan is forcing turnovers 23.3% of time (#14 in country).

— Iowa 80, Northwestern 79
Hawkeyes outscored Northwestern 12-5 over the final 1:43
Iowa led 38-21 late in the first half.

— Villanova 68, Cincinnati 60
Wildcats get their first top 100 win in four tries.
Villanova was 14-17 on foul line, Bearcats 6-11.
Cincinnati is 6-1, but they’ve played schedule #308.

— Army 103, LeMoyne 100 3OT
Army led by 14 with 5:07 left in regulation.
Teams combined to shoot 18-70 on the arc; no bueno.
LeMoyne’s subs outscored Army’s bench, 35-5.

— Murray State 63, Evansville 61
Purple Aces shot 55% inside arc, but never led this game.
Murray State starts five seniors; three of them played 38:00+.
Evansville is 3-5; this was their first loss by less than 11 points.

— Cavaliers 118, Wizards 87
Washington is 2-17; they’ve lost 15 games in a row.
Wizards are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games.
Washington’s last win was October 30th. Oy.
 

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Top NFL Things To Know​

Header First Logo

A New Low​

Giants ATS Losing Streak
The Giants are on a 7-game ATS losing streak entering this home game against the Saints. This is the Giants' longest ATS losing streak as a franchise in the Super Bowl era. If the Giants don’t cover on Sunday, they would also own a 5-game ATS losing streak at home – their longest as a franchise since 2003 (lost 7 straight ATS at home).


Header First Logo

Header Second Logo

Familiar Dogs​

Aaron Rodgers' Big Line
In Aaron Rodgers’ 257 career starts, he has only been listed as an underdog of 6 pts or more 11 times, with his last such start coming back in 2022 for the Packers. If the Jets close above +6, it will be Rodgers' biggest underdog vs. a divisional opponent in his career.

Tua Tagovailoa has only faced the Jets four times in his career and he is 4-0 SU. In Tua’s career, he is 11-0 SU vs. the Jets and Patriots and 1-8 SU vs. the Bills. Tua has closed as a favorite of six or more points 16 times. Miami is 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS in those games.


Header First Logo

Down and Out​

Bears Fire Matt Eberflus
40 teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 18-22 straight up (SU) and 23-17 against the spread (ATS) in their first game following the firing. Those teams had a 106-271-3 SU record (28%) before the head coaching change. They also compiled a 142-231-6 ATS (38%) record before the coaching change.

It isn’t often a team fires a head coach midseason after posting an above .500 ATS record that year. Eberflus was just the 5th head coach since 2003 to do that and the only one 3+ games above .500 ATS.

2024 Bears, Matt Eberflus: 7-4-1 ATS
2018 Browns, Hue Jackson: 5-3 ATS
2011 Chiefs, Todd Haley: 7-6 ATS
2011 Dolphins, Tony Sparano: 8-7 ATS
2005 Lios,n Steve Mariucci: 6-4 ATS


Header First Logo

No Field Advantage​

Home Teams Struggle
Dead. Even. Home teams and road teams are exactly even on the moneyline entering Week 14, going 95-95 SU this year.

A $100 bettor taking all home teams this season are down $3,078, which would be the 2nd-worst year for home teams on the moneyline over the last 20 years, barely ahead of 2019 (-$3,113).



Header First Logo

Header Second Logo

20 Years Later​

Browns Trying to Break Streak
Browns have lost 20 consecutive regular season games in Pittsburgh. Their last win came back in October of 2003 behind Tim Couch. Two weeks ago the Browns beat the Steelers on Thursday Night Football behind Jameis Winston. In Mike Tomlin’s career with the Steelers, no opposing QB is 2-0 SU or better against him.


Header First Logo

Six Appeal​

Chiefs ATS Losing Streak
At the moment, the Chiefs are on a 6-game ATS losing streak. This is the longest ATS losing streak of Patrick Mahomes’ NFL career. Andy Reid’s last 6-game ATS losing streak came back in 2012 with the Eagles and he has never lost 7 straight games ATS in his NFL coaching career.

Since 1990, only two teams have had a 75%+ win pct while on a 6+ game ATS losing streak:
+ 2024 Chiefs
+ 2020 Chiefs

How often do defending Super Bowl champs have a 6+ game ATS losing streak? Only three times since 1990 and two have come from Mahomes and the Chiefs.
+ 2024 Chiefs
+ 2020 Chiefs
+ 1997 Packers
 

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Thursday’s 6-pack:
Most passes thrown in a game for the Cleveland Browns:
64— Bernie Kosar, 1987
61— Colt McCoy, 2011
58— Jameis Winston, 2024
57— Brian Sipe, 1981
56— Jason Campbell, 2013
54— Brian Hoyer 2013/Eric Zeier 1995

Quote of the Day
“When all is said and done, more is usually said than done.”
Unknown

Thursday’s quiz
What was the biggest upset in Super Bowl history? (pointspread-wise)

Wednesday’s quiz
Bill Cowher was coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers before Mike Tomlin.

Tuesday’s quiz
John Calipari led UMass to the Final Four in 1996.

************************************

Thursday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..

— SEC pounded on the ACC this week, going 14-2 in their challenge.
Chances are we’ll hear about this week on Selection Sunday, when most of the SEC gets in the Field of 68.

— Alabama 94, North Carolina 79
83-possession game, very fast pace. Alabama scored 1.13 points/possession.
North Carolina was 5-28 on the arc.
Alabama is #68 in bench minutes; they put six guys in double figures.

— Duke 84, Auburn 78
Auburn led 13-2 out of the gate, but Duke shot 55.6% inside the arc.
Duke had only four turnovers, in a 63-possession game.
Auburn started 5 seniors; Duke played one senior more than 5:00.

— Creighton 76, Kansas 63
Kansas never led; they shot 35.7% from the floor.
Creighton led 41-31 at halftime.
Bluejays are shooting 60.2% inside the arc (#11)

— UConn 76, Baylor 72
UConn was 26-33 on foul line, Baylor 12-19
Baylor led by 11 early on, led 37-36 at halftime.
Baylor is 5-3, 2-3 against top 50 teams (schedule #10).

— Oregon 68, USC 60
Oregon held the Trojans to 34.5% from the floor.
Ducks are 9-0, with four top 100 wins.
Trojans other than Claude (9-20) were 10-35 from the floor.

— Iowa State 81, Marquette 70
This game was 61-61 with 8:43 left.
Marquette star Jones was only 6-21 from the floor.
Cyclones are 3-1 vs top 100 teams, scoring 87.5 ppg

Famous birthdays, December 5th:
Jeroen Krabbe, 80
Jim Plunkett, 77
Bill Simpson, 73
Cliff Floyd, 52
Charlie Batch, 50
Josh Smith, 39
AJ Pollock, 37
Christian Yelich, 33

— Maryland 83, Ohio State 59
Terps led this game 63-23 at one point; they shot 59.5% inside arc.

— Belmont 99, Illinois State 97 OT
Belmont led MVC opener 54-45 at the half.
Illinois State shot 18-33 on the arc and still lost.
Belmont is 7-2, playing schedule #285.

— New Mexico 83, San Jose State 77
San Jose led 17-4 early, 71-65 with 7:16 left in game.
Lobos had 16 offensive boards, out-rebounded San Jose 42-31.

Upsets of the Night:
Coastal Carolina (+5.5) 58, Campbell 57
Creighton (+4.5) 76, Kansas 63
North Dakota State (+4.5) 77, Weber State 73
St Thomas (+4.5) 87, Northern Colorado 75
IU Indy (+4.5) 84, Green Bay 75

— Texas 63, NC State 59

59-possession game; very slow pace.
NC State lost last three games, scoring 61-61-59 points.
Wolfpack was 5-14 on arc, 6-14 on foul line.

— Summit League went 5-4 against the Big Sky in their challenge; underdogs were 5-4 ATS in the nine games.

— Jacksonville Jaguar QB Trevor Lawrence was put on IR, is most likely out for the year; he got a concussion Sunday after a late hit by a Houston defender.

— South Korean star 2B Hyeseong Kim was posted, will be available as a free agent starting Thursday at 5:00. KIm will be 26 next month; he hit .326 LY, with 11 homers, 75 RBIs while stealing 30 bases for the Kiwoom Heroes in the KBO.

— Red Sox signed reliever Aroldis Chapman for one year, $10.75M. In 61⅔ IP for Pittsburgh last year, Chapman struck out 98, walked 39, had a 3.79 ERA. He’ll be 37 years old soon; Boston will be his 7th major league team.
 

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NFL
Weather Report

Thurday, December 5


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NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 14

Thursday’s game
Packers
@ Lions (-3)
Packers (9-3)
Packers won three in row, seven of last seven games (38-10/30-17 last two).
Green Bay is 4-2 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Green Bay won last three road tilts by 1-3-5 points.
Team total: over 7-5
Opponents’ team total: under 9-2 last 11


GB is 16-7 ATS in last 23 games as a road underdog (1-1 TY).
Packers are 21-15-1 ATS in last 37 games coming off a win.
Green Bay is 8-0 when they allow less than 24 points.
Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Green Bay is 9-7 ATS in last 16 NFC North road games.
Green Bay is 16-14-1 ATS last 31 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Packers won 24-19 at LA in Week 5, their only game on artificial turf TY.


Lions (11-1)
Detroit won its last ten games (8-2 ATS).
Last six games, Lions outscored opponents 94-31 in 2nd half.
Detroit is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS at home this season.
Opponents have converted only 31 of last 98 third down plays.
Team total: over 5-4 last nine
Opponents’ team total: under 8-4


Under Campbell, Lions are 13-6 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 7-3 ATS in NFC North home games.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 21-10 ATS in games coming off a win.
Lions have outscored opponents 47-16 in last 2:00 of each half.
Lions are 14-4 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
QB Goff is 81-55-1 as an NFL starter, 37-25-1 with Detroit.
Last four games, Lions held opponents to 296.8 yards/game.


Lions (+1.5) won 24-14 at Lambeau in Week 9.
Packers outgained Detroit 411-261, but were bad in red zone.
Teams split their last eight meetings.
Teams also split their last eight meetings in Detroit.
Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.
Both teams are on normal rest, playing on Thanksgiving LW.
 

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Best NFL Week 14 betting trends​


The trend: Since the start of last season, the Lions are 7-1 ATS in games after not covering the spread

The trend: The Titans are 0-5 ATS at home this season and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite

The trend: Since the start of November, these teams are a combined 8-1 to the Under MIN vs ATL

The trend: The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a double-digit favorite

The trend: The Dolphins are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games when favored by six or more

The trend: The Browns are 1-20 SU & 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games in Pittsburgh

The trend: The Raiders have gone Over their team total in five straight games

The trend: The Giants are 5-1 to the Under on their team total at home
 

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These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better outright have gone 41-15 SU and 35-21 ATS (62.5%) in the rematch contest
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-6.5 vs. CLE)

In Monday Night Football games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 27-26 SU but 15-36-2 ATS (29.4%) in the L53.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+5.5 vs. CIN)

Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 44-70 SU but 65-44-5 ATS (59.6%) when playing as underdogs of 3 points or more.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY JETS (+6 at MIA), ATLANTA (+5.5 at MIN)

SAN FRANCISCO is on 13-2 Over the total surge as home favorite of -3 to -7 points
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-SF (o/u at 44)

NEW ORLEANS’ Derek Carr is 5-11 SU and 1-14 ATS as a road favorite since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-4.5 at NYG)

Mac Jones (JAX) is 0-14 SU and 1-13 ATS (7.1%) as an underdog of 7 points or less
Trend Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+3.5 at TEN)

DETROIT is on 17-9 SU and 20-6 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3 vs. GB)

CINCINNATI is on an incredible 15-1 SU and ATS run as a road favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-5.5 at DAL)

NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 58-14 SU and 47-23-2 ATS (67.1%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-5.5 vs. ATL)

Over the total is 8-0-1 in the last nine of the Las Vegas-Tampa Bay series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LVR-TB (o/u at 46.5)

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections: NY GIANTS +4.5 vs. NO (+6.6 difference)
 

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THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· Road teams have done well, 35-41 SU and 42-32-2 ATS (56.8%) in the last 76.
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (+3 at DET)

· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 24-22 SU but 15-29-2 ATS (34.1%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 and later are 42-25 SU and 40-25-2 ATS (61.5%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3 vs. GB)

· A long-running trend of Thursday night home field advantage being crucial in divisional games has turned lately, with these hosts going 20-17 SU but 15-22 ATS (40.5%) since the start of the 2019 season. Prior to that, divisional hosts were on an amazing 17-2-1 ATS run.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-3 vs. GB)

· More on totals, there have been 31 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 or greater, they went Under at a 22-9 rate (71%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): GB-DET (o/u at 51.5)

Good TNF Team Trends
Green Bay 7-4 SU and 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (+3 at DET)

NFL Streaks Betting System #15: NFL teams playing at home on Thursday’s after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with a 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS (75%) record in their last 16 tries.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3 vs. GB)

Best NFL rematch teams lately
– Detroit: 14-3 ATS run in rematches
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3 vs GB)
 

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Packers @ Lions -3.5, Total 51.5​

Lions are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against Green Bay.

Lions are 15-1 SU in their last 16 games as the favorite.

Lions are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games, 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games

Lions are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 divisional games

Packers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games played in Week 14.

Packers are 18-2 SU in their last 20 games played in December.

Packers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games at Detroit

Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as the underdog.

Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 TNF road games

Lions are 1-7 SU in their last 8 TNF home games
 

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Thursday, Dec. 5
8:20pm ET on Prime Video
Jordan Love vs. Jared Goff
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Road team success in Love vs. Goff matchups​

➤Jordan Love and Jared Goff have faced off three times before this and all three times the road team got the win and cover.

Favorites dominate Thursday night games​

➤Favorites on games played on a Thursday have dominated in recent years. They are 53-18 SU (75%), but only 38-33 ATS. On the moneyline, they are winning by 6.1 PPG and have a +8.5% ROI.

Love's struggles against NFC North rivals​

➤In Love’s rookie year, he went 4-2 ATS vs. the NFC North, covering the spread by 6.6 PPG. 2024 has been a different story, with the Packers 0-3 ATS in Love’s starts vs. the NFC North, failing to cover the spread by 5.5 PPG.

Love is 1 of 3 QBs 0-3 ATS or worse vs. division opponents this year with Patrick Mahomes and CJ Stroud.

Packers' success as underdogs under LaFleur​

➤The Packers are 2-2 SU/ATS as dogs this season. Matt LaFleur is 24-12 ATS (67%) as an underdog. LaFleur is also 20-16 SU as a dog (+$1,595 on a $100 bet).

Under LaFleur, Green Bay has gone an amazing 18-5 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more and 14-3 ATS as a dog of more than 3 pts.

LaFleur vs. good teams: A mixed record​

➤Matt LaFleur has done an incredible job facing good teams. He is 28-17 ATS (62%) vs. teams above .500 SU with the Packers – the 3rd-best mark of any head coach since his NFL coaching debut.

The issue? He is 0-3 ATS in that spot this season facing the Lions, Texans and Vikings.

LaFleur's December dominance​

➤In December, Matt LaFleur-coached teams have been dominant. He is 18-2 SU and 11-9 ATS, but when he is listed as an underdog, the Packers are a perfect 4-0 SUATS, covering the spread by 16.1 PPG.

Lions' performance after Thanksgiving​

➤After Thanksgiving game coming up for the Lions. Detroit has won and covered four straight game after Thanksgiving (lost 3 straight SU/ATS prior). Since 2005, Lions are 6-13 SU, 10-9 ATS the game after Thanksgiving.

Goff’s strong home performance​

➤Jared Goff has finished .500 ATS or better at home in six straight seasons and is 4-2 ATS this year. In that span since 2018, Goff is 34-20-2 ATS (63%) at home, the best mark of any QB in the NFL.

After the Lions fail to cover in their previous game, Goff is 15-4 ATS with Detroit, including 10-2 ATS at home.

Goff's dominance against NFC North teams​

➤With the Lions, Jared Goff is 15-6 ATS vs. NFC North. Since 2018 with the Lions and Rams, Goff is 25-12-1 ATS vs. his own division, 2nd-best mark of 123 QBs behind just Dak Prescott.

Goff’s 15-6 ATS mark vs. NFC North is the second best of any QB last 20 years behind just Aaron Rodgers.

Lions' dominance against the first-half spread​

➤Over the last three seasons, the Lions are now 36-12-1 against the first-half spread – the best mark of any team in the NFL. When that game is against a NFC North opponent, the Lions are 12-2-1 1H ATS.


 

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THURSDAY, DECEMBER 5

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
GB at DET08:15 PMDET -3.5
U 52.5
+500 +500
 

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NFL BEST BETS FOR DECEMBER !

12/05/2024....................0 - 2 - 0....................00.00%....................- 11.00
12/02/2024....................2 - 0 - 0...................100.00%....................+ 10.00
12/01/2024.....................3 - 7- 0.....................30.00%.....................- 23.50

TOTALS.............................5 - 9 - 0.....................35.71%.................... - 24.50
 

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Friday’s 6-pack:
Some teams who have played tough schedules so far…….
4) Auburn 7-1
5) San Diego State 5-2
6) Alabama 7-2
7) North Carolina 4-4
9) Baylor 5-3
10) Memphis 7-1

Quote of the Day
“It’s a really significant day for Las Vegas, for Nevada. There will be more of that. We’ll have the groundbreaking, we’re going to have a (stadium) topping off party and were going to have Opening Day. We’re going to have many years of Major League Baseball.”
Las Vegas Stadium Authority Chairman Steve Hill

Friday’s quiz
What year did the A’s move from Kansas City to Oakland?

Thursday’s quiz
Super Bowl III was the biggest upset in Super Bowl history, when the 18-point underdog Jets upset the Baltimore Colts, 16-7.

Wednesday’s quiz
Bill Cowher was coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers before Mike Tomlin.

***************************************

Friday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday……..

Good day to be an A’s fan…….
A’s relocation to Las Vegas cleared a major hurdle Thursday with the approval of three long-anticipated agreements that were needed before ballpark construction can begin.
A’s will play in Sacramento the next three years, hope to begin playing in a new stadium on the Las Vegas Strip in 2028.
Damn near choked on my lunch Thursday when I got a text saying the A’s signed P Luis Severino to a 3-year, $67M contract, the biggest contract the A’s have given out since 2004, when Eric Chavez got paid.
This past year, Severino was 11-7, 3.91 in 31 starts for the Mets, after previously pitching for eight years in the Bronx. His career record is 65-44, 3.81 in 156 starts.

Lions 34, Packers 31
Lions drove 63 yards, kicked 35-yard FG at the gun.
Detroit won its last eleven games (8-3 ATS).
Goff threw for 283 yards, three TD’s.
Detroit was 7-15 on third down, 4-5 on 4th down.
Only 5 of Packers’ 44 plays were on 3rd down (1-5).
Green Bay’s first three drives: 10 plays, 46 yards, no points.
Green Bay rest of the game: 34 plays, 249 yards, 31 points.
Detroit led 17-7 at halftime.
Packers scored two TD’s in first 3:45 of third quarter.
GB is 17-7 ATS in last 24 games as a road underdog

— North Carolina has interviewed 72-year old Bill Belichick about their coaching job; while Belichick has won six Super Bowls, he’s never coached in college.
Tar Heels just fired 73-year old Mack Brown as coach, after going 23-16 the last three years.
Belichick’s son is defensive coordinator for the Washington Huskies.

— If you like the NFL, Hard Knocks on HBO Max is great to watch; this year’s show is focusing on the entire AFC North. Get to see some behind-the-scenes stuff, which is educational.

— Quarterbacks/receivers should get stat credit for interference penalties.

— UCLA fired offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy after the Bruins ranked 126th in scoring this year, 118th in yardage. Bieniemy gets paid $1.2M to go away.
Bieniemy worked for the Washington Commanders LY, after working with the Chiefs for ten years before that. Rumor was he didn’t get along well with Patrick Mahomes, but Kansas City won two Super Bowls while he was there.
UCLA replaces Bieniemy with Indiana OC/QB coach Tino Sunseri.

— Oklahoma State fired both coordinators after their 3-9 season, where they were 0-9 in Big X games. Problem is, OSU had gone to bowl games the previous 18 years, going 12-6 in the bowl games and suddenly, this year the assistants aren’t good enough?
Offensive coordinator Kasey Dunn has worked for the Cowboys since 2011; that had to be a tense/awkward conversation when he was told to take a hike.

Famous birthdays, December 6th:
Larry Bowa, 79
Steven Wright, 69
Bill Hanzlik, 67
Lance Blankenship, 61
Sarah Rafferty, 52
Judd Apotow, 57
Kevin Cash, 47
Johnny Manziel, 32
Giannis Antetokounmpo, 30

— Penn State 81, Purdue 70
Nittany Lions led by 27 midway thru second half.
Purdue turned ball over 24 times in their conference opener.

— TCU 76, Xavier 72
Xavier led by 6 with 7:28 left in the game.
Horned Frogs put five guys in double figures, including two subs.
Xavier shot 63% inside the arc, only 9-28 outside arc.

— Detroit 79, Fort Wayne 78
Mastodons led Detroit by 8 with 8:51 left in game.
Titans shot 11-25 on the arc.
Detroit is 5-5 under new coach Montgomery; they were 1-31 last year.

— Oakland 66, Wright State 64
Wright State shot 16-31 on arc, but 6-20 inside arc, only 4-5 on foul line.
Oakland starts four seniors; they played non-conference schedule #8.

— Drake 66, Valparaiso 60
Drake is 8-0, with four starters who used to play D-2 ball.
Bulldogs are forcing turnovers 22.4% of time (#27)
Drake already has three top 100 wins.

— Long Beach State 73, Fullerton 56
Long Beach gets its first win in nine D-I games.
Favored Titans were 1-13 on arc, 9-18 on foul line.

— Cal-Irvine 82, Bakersfield 66
Irvine was 33-40 on foul line, Bakersfield 17-19.
Anteaters are 9-0, with only two top 150 wins.
Six of Irvine’s eight I-A wins are by 12+ points.
 

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Saturday’s 6-pack:
Teams getting the highest % of their points on 3-pointers:
51%— North Dakota State
46.2%— North Florida
45.2%— Tennessee Tech
44.6%— Furman
44.2%— DePaul
44.1%— Akron

Quote of the Day
“We wanted to make something of a statement coming into a new city and coming into a new ballpark. But more than that, to improve on what we have. Signing someone with Luis’ experience to be a leader was important to us.”
A’s general manager David Forst, after signing P Luis Severino

Saturday’s quiz
What city hosts the Holiday Bowl every year?

Friday’s quiz
A’s moved from Kansas City to Oakland in 1968.

Thursday’s quiz
Super Bowl III was the biggest upset in Super Bowl history, when the 18-point underdog Jets upset the Baltimore Colts, 16-7.

****************************************

Saturday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here……..

— P Shane Bieber re-signed with the Cleveland Guardians, for one year, $10M, with a $4M buyout if they don’t keep him after 2025.

— P Clay Holmes signed with the Mets for three years, $38M; he’s going to start for the Mets, after making 300 relief appearances over the last six seasons. He did start four games for the Pirates in 2018.

— Dodgers star 1B Freddie Freeman had surgery on his right ankle Thursday, is expected to be ready for the start of spring training. Freeman hit .282 last year with 89 RBI and an .854 OPS; he hit .250 in LA’s postseason games, when he was hampered by the ankle injury.

— The St. Petersburg City Council voted to approve bonds necessary to finance a new $1.3B stadium for the Tampa Bay Rays, which could open in 2028.
The Rays have said it was impossible to play at the Trop next year and maybe not until 2026, because of the damage from a tropical storm in October.

— C Kyle Higashioka signed a 2-year deal with the Texas Rangers for $13.5M; the 34-year old catcher hit 17 homers in 263 plate appearances for San Diego last year.

— It turns out that referee Bill Vinovich worked four college basketball games in four nights in Palm Springs last week, then worked the Cardinals-Vikings game in Minnesota Sunday.
Thursday night, Vinovich worked the Cal-San Diego-Santa Barbara basketball game in the Thunderdome.

— Houston Rockets coach Ime Udoka was fined $50,000 by the NBA for his actions during Tuesday’s loss to Sacramento.
He was fined for confronting and directing profane language toward a game official, failing to leave the court in a timely manner after being ejected, and public criticism of the officiating.
“Missed calls, blatant missed calls right in front of you. You’re calling ticky-tack moving screens, little s— like that, but you don’t want to call the obvious ones right in front of you. That was it. Thought [Sengun] got fouled a few times on that drive and on the layup and they don’t want to call it. So I told him to get some f—ing glasses and open your eyes.”
Alrighty then.

Famous birthdays, December 7th:
Ellen Burstyn, 92
Johnny Bench, 77
Larry Bird, 68
C Thomas Howell, 58
Eric Chavez, 47
Ryan Theriot, 45
Jake McQuaide, 37
Kyle Hendricks, 35
Yasiel Puig, 34
Pete Alonso, 30

— There were three college football conference title games Friday:

Jacksonville State 52, Western Kentucky 12
Gamecocks win C-USA in their second year as a I-A team.
Jax State won nine of last ten games, after an 0-3 start.
Gamecocks ran for 386 yards, outgained the Hilltoppers, 562-229.
Back in 1985, Rams won NFC West with QB Dieter Brock, who played most of his career in the CFL. Dieter Brock played his college ball at Jacksonville State.

— Boise State 21, UNLV 7
Last eight years, Broncos are 6-2 SU in MW title games.
UNLV ran for 217 yards; they had an 87-yard run, but didn’t score on that drive.

— Army 35, Tulane 14
Army wins the AAC in their first season in the league.
Cadets ran ball for 335 yards; they were 4-9 on 3rd down, 4-5 on 4th down.
Army scored 35 points while throwing two passes the whole game.

— Northwestern 70, Illinois 66 OT
Illinois loses its Big 18 opener, slips to 7-2, 1-2 against top 100 teams.
Wildcats’ last four games were all decided by 5 or fewer points.

— West Virginia 73, Georgetown 60
Hoyas led 30-28 at halftime.
Senior G Small scored 26 for West Virginia, which is 6-2, 3-2 vs top 100 teams.

— Niagara 69, Siena 68
Niagara outscored Saints 6-2 over the final 2:12
Purple Eagles were 17-20 on foul line, Siena 9-14.

— Oklahoma State wants football coach Mike Gundy to re-do his contract so that he makes less $$$, then use the money he gives back to help fund their NIL program.
There will be lawyers.

— In the movie Moneyball, when they make such a big thing about trading 1B Carlos Pena, Pena was hitting .218 when he got traded to Detroit. He wound up having a 14-year career with eight different teams, he hit 286 home runs with a career OPS of .808.
John Mabry hit .275 with 11 homers for the A’s that year, stepping in at 1B For Pena.
 

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Sunday’s 6-pack:
Highest scoring teams in college football:
44.2 ppg— Miami
43.3— Indiana
39.8— Notre Dame
39.2— SMU
39.1— Boise State
38.6— Texas Tech

Quote of the Day
“Don’t give up, don’t ever give up.”
Jim Valvano

Sunday’s quiz
Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel has played college football for two other schools; which ones?

Saturday’s quiz
San Diego hosts the Holiday Bowl every year.

Friday’s quiz
A’s moved from Kansas City to Oakland in 1968.

*********************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….

— Georgia 22, Texas 19 OT
Texas tied game on a 37-yard FG with 0:18 left.
Each team scored one touchdown in regulation.
Longhorns outgained Georgia, 389-277.
11-2 Dawgs won their last four games, the last two in overtime.
Georgia QB Beck hurt his right arm during the game, didn’t finish.

— Clemson 34, SMU 31
Clemson kicked a 55-yard FG at the gun for the win.
Tigers have won their last nine appearances in the ACC title game.
Clemson led this game 31-14 in 4th quarter.
SMU drove 79 yards, tied game 31-31 on TD with 0:16 left.
SMU’s punter Isaac Pearson was a coal miner for four years in Australia, before coming to America and going to college as a punter.

— Oregon 45, Penn State 37
Ducks led this game 31-24 at halftime.
Oregon ran ball 35 times for 292 yards (8.3 yards/carry).
Ducks win the Big 18, in their first year in the league.

— Arizona State 45, Iowa State 19
Sun Devils ran ball 39 times for 245 yards (6.3 yards/carry).
ASU wins the Big X, in its first year in the league.
Sun Devils were picked 15th out of 16 team in the pre-season media poll.

— Marshall 31, Louisiana 3
WR Chapman caught 8 passes for 86 yards and a TD.
Thundering Herd was 8-15 on third down, Louisiana 2-16
Marshall outgained the Ragin’ Cajuns, 410-256.

— Ohio U 38, Miami OH 3
Bobcats outgained Miami, 467-189.
Bobcats threw ball for 235 yards, ran it for 232.
Ohio won its last six games, since a 30-20 loss at Miami.

College Basketball Upsets of the Day:
New Mexico State (+20.5) 89, New Mexico 83 OT
Washington State (+8.5) 74, Boise State 69
Loyola Marymount (+8.5) 68, Nevada 64
Denver (+8.5) 68, Portland State 67
Long Beach State (+6) 76, Hawai’i 68
Indiana State (+4.5) 80, Missouri State 77


— SS/3B Willie Adames signed a 7-year, $182M deal with San Francisco; he hit 32 homers, knocked in 112 runs for Milwaukee LY. He’s hit 87 home runs the last three years

— OF Tyler O’Neill signed a 3-year deal with the Orioles worth $49.5M, filling the void in the Oriole outfield created by Anthony Santander’s free agency.
O’Neill hit 31 homers last year in his only season with the Red Sox; his OPS was .842 last year, his career OPS is .792.

— Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki is expected to be posted at the winter meetings, but he isn’t expected to sign until after January 15, when the international amateur signing period starts, and more $$$ will be available.

— Oklahoma State was paying football coach Mike Gundy $7.75M/year, but his contract has been re-done, and the money that was taken away from him will go into OSU’s NIL program, as they try to recruit better players.
Oklahoma State had gone to 18 consecutive bowls before this year, but they went 3-9, 0-9 in conference games. Gundy is the winningest coach in OSU history.

Famous birthdays, December 8th:
Kim Basinger, 71
Steve Dils, 69
George Rogers, 66
Wendell Pierce, 61
Teri Hatcher, 60
Jeff George, 57
Mike Mussina, 56
Philip Rivers, 43
Josh Donaldson, 39
Dwight Howard, 39

— Marquette 88, Wisconsin 74
Marquette scored 88 points on 66 possessions; they were only 8-26 on the arc.
Marquette was +11 in turnovers (16-5), shot 63.9% inside the arc.
Badgers lost two in row after an 8-0 start; they led 39-37 at halftime.

— New Mexico State 89, New Mexico 83 OT
Huge upset in the Land of Enchantment.
Aggies had lost five in row, had the #338 eFG% in country.
Lobos led by 14 early, but State made 14-31 shots on the arc.

— Rhode Island 69, Providence 63
Rams are 9-0, but they’ve played schedule #330.
Both of URI’s top 100 wins were by six points.
Providence led this game by 8 with 13:43 left in the game.

— NC State 84, Florida State 74 OT
Seminoles led 66-60 with 3:444 left to play.
Wolfpack snaps 3-game skid with their first top 100 win in four tries.
NC State shot 64.5% inside the arc.
Bad beat if you had the Seminoles +5.

— St John’s 88, Kansas State 71
K-State came a long way to play a game that started at 11:30am in Queens.
Wildcats led by 10 with 5:36 left in first half.
Red Storm outscored K-State 53-32 in the second half.
 

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