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Friday’s 6-pack:
Interesting bowl spreads……..
— Memphis -4.5 vs West Virginia
— California -1.5 vs UNLV
— Indiana @ Notre Dame -7.5
— SMU @ Penn State -9
— Clemson @ Texas -11
— Tennessee @ Ohio State -7.5

Quote of the Day
“You can shear a sheep many times, but only skin him once.”
Amarillo Slim

Friday’s quiz
In the history of the New York Knicks, who has scored the most points?

Thursday’s quiz
Who is the Kansas City Chiefs’ all-time leader in passing touchdowns?

Wednesday’s quiz
Jameis Winston played his college football at Florida State.

***************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here…….

— Rams 12, 49ers 6
Rams’ first five drives: 23 plays, 51 yards, five punts
Rams’ last five drives: 45 plays, 218 yards, four field goals.
Steady rain in 2nd quarter; no rain in second half, until last 2:00
Rams won 44-42 last week, 12-6 this week.
Really good teams find different ways to win games.
Rams outgained San Francisco, 302-191; there were no TD’s in this game.
QB Stafford threw for 160 yards, 97 of them to WR Nucua.
RB Williams ran ball 29 times for 108 yards.
49ers completed only 14-31 passes (3.8 yards/attempt).
San Francisco has now lost four of its last five games.

— In a year where strange things keep happeniong, Bill Belichick is the new football coach at North Carolina, at age 72. Belichick won six Super Bowls as an NFL head coach; he has never coached in college. This is going to be very interesting.

— Iowa State 89, Iowa 80
Cyclones trailed 62-53 with 11:37 left in the game.
Both teams shot 11-28 on the arc.
ISU’s Jefferson was 10-12 on foul line; entire Iowa team was 13-15.

— Strange but true stat: So far this season, SEC basketball teams are 26-3 vs ACC teams.

— QB Tommy DeVito is starting at QB for the Giants this week against Baltimore; Drew Lock is in a walking boot.
Saints are giving Jake Haener his first NFL start this week, with Derek Carr hurt.

— QB transfer info:
QB Thomas Castellanos is bolting from Boston College to Florida State, where he will re-unite with FSU’s new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, who coached Castellanos at UCF.
QB Connor Weigman is bolting from Texas A&M to Houston, which is 4-8 in its first season as a Big X team.

— Former UNLV coach Barry Odom is now the Purdue coach, after going 19-8 with the Rebels the last two seasons. Odom had previously gone 25-25 in four years at Missouri.
Purdue has some advantages that UNLV doesn’t; a strong alumni base led by former NFL star Drew Brees, a recently renovated stadium, other upgraded facilities and a reputation as a cradle of quarterbacks. UNLV has Allegiant Stadium, but not much of a football history.
Big 18 is also a much deeper pond than the Mountain West; Purdue has finished under .500 in 10 of their last 13 seasons.

Famous birthdays, December 13:
Dick Van Dyke, 99
Ferguson Jenkins, 82
Lemar Parrish, 77
Larry Kenon, 72
Andre Turner, 60
Jamie Foxx, 57
Scott Zolak, 57
Ricky Nolasco, 43
Taylor Swift, 35
Luis Garcia, 28
Gleyber Torres, 28
Brock Bowers, 22

— 1B/2B Spencer Horwitz had himself an eventful day Tuesday; first, the Blue Jays traded him to Cleveland, part of a 4-player deal.
Later that day, the Guardians traded him to Pittsburgh, for P Luis Ortiz and two prospects.
Horwitz played in 97 games for Toronto LY, hitting .265 with 12 home runs, and a .790 OPS. Not often a guy gets traded twice in the same day.

— Texas Rangers acquired 1B/3B Jake Burger from Miami, in exchange for three prospects; Burger hit .250 with 29 homers for the Marlins LY, with a .750 OPS.
He is expected to mostly be a DH for the Rangers.

— Unusual to read that 3B Nolan Arenado is asking off the St Louis Cardinals because he thinks they’re in decline; he has a no-trade clause in his contract, but supposedly will agree to be dealt to a contending team— he might even agree to move to first base.
Arenado is an 8-time All-Star and 10-time Gold Glove winner who is entering his age-34 season and coming off his worst offensive year (.272/.325/.394) since his rookie season.

— White Sox traded P Garrett Crochet to Boston to four prospects, two of whom got a strong thumbs-up from MLB Network analyst/former Colorado GM Dan O’Dowd.
Catcher Kyle Teel, OF Braden Montgomery are the two prospects.

— Rule 5 Draft was this week: it is designed to prevent teams from stockpiling too many young players. Players not on a team’s 40-man roster can be chosen by other clubs.
If a player is chosen in the Rule 5 draft, the player must be kept on the selecting team’s major league active roster for the entire season that follows the draft, so the 15 guys taken this week will be in the big leagues this entire season.
11 of the 15 players chosen this week are pitchers.

— RIP George Kreske, better known as the Amazing Kreskin, who passed away this week at age 88; when I was a kid, Kreskin was a fixture on a lot of talk shows- he was on The Tonight Show 88 times.
Kreskin was a “mentalist”, kind of like a psychic; one of his best-known tricks was to find his own paycheck for his current performance.
If he did not find it, he didn’t get paid for that day. He would instruct the audience to hide an envelope containing his paycheck, while he was escorted off stage and into seclusion by other members of the audience. He then re-emerged and hunted through the audience, almost always being able to find where it was.
It was fun to watch his act, especially as a kid. RIP, sir.
 

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Saturday’s 6-pack:
Teams that have scored most points in the 4th quarter this year:
118— Colts
116— Eagles
114— Buccaneers
112— Bills
108— Ravens
102— Bears

Quote of the Day
“Baseball hasn’t forgotten me. I go to a lot of Old Timers’ games and I haven’t lost a thing. I sit in the bullpen and let people throw things at me, just like old times.”
Bob Uecker

Saturday’s quiz
Josh Harris owns the NBA’s Philadelphia 76ers and the NHL’s New Jersey Devils; which NFL team does he own?

Friday’s quiz
In the history of the New York Knicks, Patrick Ewing has scored the most points.

Thursday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes is the Kansas City Chiefs’ all-time leader in passing touchdowns.

*********************************************

Saturday’s Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind……..

— Houston Astros traded OF Kyle Tucker to the Cubs Friday, for 3B/1B Isaac Paredes, P Hayden Wesneski and IF prospect Cam Smith.
Tucker has a career OPS of .870, hitting 112 homers the last four years; he is a free agent after next season.

— Cubs also added C Carson Kelly on a 2-year, $11.5M contract; Kelly has played most of his career with Arizona- he is .224 career hitter who is well thought of defensively.

— Milwaukee Brewers traded closer Devin Williams to Bronx for P Nestor Cortes and a prospect; New York apparently also tossed $4.5M in to complete the deal.
Williams had 36 saves in 2023, was hurt a lot of last year, had only 14 saves- he had a 1.25 ERA in his 21.2 IP last year.
Cortes was 9-10, 3.77 in 30 starts last year; he was 33-20, 3.61 in 84 starts for New York the last four seasons.

— Two short years ago, Juan Soto turned down a 15-year, $440M deal with Washington; now he has a 15-year contract worth $325M more than that.

— Nebraska 85, Indiana 68
Cornhuskers shot 62.9% inside arc, scored 1.23 points/possession.
Indiana is 2-3 vs top 100 teams; they shot 8-35 on the arc.

— Seattle Redhawks are bolting from the WAC to the WCC next year; Seattle is off to a slow 3-6 start this season, but the last three years, they were 66-35, 36-20 in WAC games.

— Bronny James played in his first road game in the G-League Thursday; he scored 30 points for the South Bay Lakers in a 106-100 loss to the Valley Suns. ,Lakers are 4-9, 0-6 on the road. Not really sure why James didn’t play in their first five road games.

Famous birthdays, December 14th:
Dee Wallace, 76
Cynthia Gibb, 61
Craig Biggio, 59
Scott Hatteberg, 55
Billy Koch, 50
Nicolas Batum, 36
Adam Frazier, 33
Ryan McMahon, 30
DK Metcalf, 27

— I’m not a fan of Thursday night NFL games; I think the product isn’t as good- football wasn’t meant to be played on three days’ rest.
Understood that NFL owners just want to wring as much $$$ as they can out of the TV system and Amazon is helping them with the Thursday package, but at same point, the quality of the product needs to matter.
I’d be in favor of Monday night NFL doubleheaders instead of Thursday games.

— As far as I can tell, there are seven teams playing in bowls this month who have changed head coaches, either firing theirs or having them move on to a different job.
Irony for $500, Alex: North Carolina’s bowl game is in Fenway Park, where a long time ago, the Patriots used to play home games. Bill Belichick is UNC’s new head coach; am guessing he’ll do the TV rounds to get publicity to help their recruiting.

— QB Hank Brown is bolting from Auburn to Iowa; he threw for 403 yards, six TD’s for Auburn this season. He has three years of eligibility left. Brown played high school ball at Lipscomb Academy in Tennessee, where his coach was former NFL QB Trent Dilfer.

— UNLV named ESPN analyst Dan Mullen its new football coach; he worked on ESPN the last three years (and was very good) after going 69-46 as the coach at Mississippi State, 34-15 at Florida. He has a 7-3 record in bowl games.

— Florida Atlantic named 33-year old Zach Kittley their new football coach; he is the youngest I-A head coach in the country. Kittley originally went to Abilene Christian to play basketball, but transferred to Texas Tech and worked as a student assistant to coach Sonny Cumbie, then became a grad assistant, where he worked with a QB named Patrick Mahomes.
He’s been Tech’s offensive coordinator the last three years. Red Raiders are 8-4 this season; they scored 56-52 points in their last two games.

— Kenny Dillingham is Arizona State’s 34-year old football coach; he started coaching when he was 17 years old, after tearing his ACL in high school. ASU is 11-2 this season and won the Big X title in their first year in the league.
2007-12- Chaparral HS, QB coach
2013- Chaparral HS, offensive coordinator (age 21)
2014-15- Offensive assistant, Arizona State
2016- Grad assistant, Memphis
2017- QB/TE coach, Memphis
2018- Offensive coordinator/QB coach, Memphis
2019- Offensive coordinator/QB coach, Auburn
2020-21- Offensive coordinator/QB coach, Florida State
2022- Offensive coordinator/QB coach, Oregon
2023-present- Head coach, Arizona State
 

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Top NFL Things To Know​

Header First Logo

Streak KIller​

Panthers Finally Favored
The Panthers have covered the spread in five straight games. Carolina hadn’t covered five straight games since 2013 when they covered six straight behind Cam Newton. At the moment, the Panthers own the longest active ATS winning streak in the NFL.

The Panthers have gone 33 consecutive games as underdogs, including being an underdog in 42 of their last 43 games. Carolina was last favored in Week 15, 2022 (vs. PIT). They’ve lost nine straight games ATS as a favorite, while every other NFL team has had at least three covers as a favorite since Oct. 1, 2021. They were last favored by FG (-3) or more in Nov. 2021.


Header First Logo

Big Apple​

Large Giants Spread
In the last 50 years, the Giants have never closed as an underdog of 14 or more points at home. The closest was back in 1973 when they closed +13.5 against Fran Tarkenton and the Vikings.

The last time they were this big of an underdog came back in December of 1966 against the Cowboys as a 23-point underdog at home.


Header First Logo

Will It End?​

Titans Historic Season
Titans are 2-11 against the spread this season, the worst mark for any team through 13 games since the 2016 Browns. Of the five other teams above, the 2016 Browns, 2007 Ravens and 1987 Bengals are the only three teams to start 2-12 ATS. Overall, The worst ATS mark for any team since 1990 is the Ravens, who went 3-13 ATS back in 2007.


Header First Logo

Bye, Bye, Bye​

Not The Best Year
Teams who are coming off a bye, facing a team who is not, is just 9-13 SU this season. A $100 bettor is down $713 on the moneyline in this spot, the 2nd-worst season for teams off of a bye over the last decade.


Header First Logo

Seven Heaven​

Chiefs ATS Losing Streak
Chiefs won and didn’t cover again last week. They are 12-1 SU and 4-8-1 ATS this season and are currently on a 7-game ATS losing streak. Since 1990, only two teams have had a 75%+ win pct while on a 7+ game ATS losing streak: the 2024 Chiefs and 2020 Chiefs.

Chiefs have now lost 7 consecutive games against the spread — the longest ATS losing streak of Andy Reid's coaching career.


Header First Logo

Two Face​

Texans 1H and 2H Difference
No team has seen a difference in their 1H and 2H play this year. The Texans are 11-2 against the first-half spread, the best mark of any team in the NFL.

As head coach of the Texans, DeMeco Ryans is 23-9 1H ATS, including 23-7 1H ATS with CJ Stroud at QB. Stroud’s 1H ATS mark is the 3rd-best of any QB of 262 QBs over the last 20 years behind just Jared Goff and Joe Flacco. Houston is also 2-11 against the second-half spread, the worst mark of any team in the NFL.


Header First Logo

Not So Super​

Saints Big Home Spread
The Saints are big home underdogs this week, which isn’t a frequent occurrence for them. In the past 20 years, New Orleans has only closed as an underdog of seven of 7 or more points at home two times, once in 2021 behind Trevor Siemian, who closed +7 and once in 2005, which was played outside the Superdome due to Katrina, with Todd Bouman, who closed at +9.5.

The last time the Saints closed above +7 at home in the Superdome was back in 1999, when Jake Delhomme started for New Orleans against Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and the Cowboys, closing +9 with the Saints winning outright.


Header First Logo

Bo Knows​

Nix Excels As Favorite
Bo Nix has started all 13 games so far this season for the Broncos, and Denver is 10-3 ATS, covering the number by 6.2 PPG. Entering Week 15, Nix is the most profitable QB ATS in the NFL.

Nix has only closed as a favorite six times in his 13 career starts, and he is 6-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 11.8 points per game. Nix is the lone remaining QB undefeated ATS as a favorite this year – no minimum starts.

Bo Nix is the first rookie QB to start 6-0 SU/ATS as a favorite all in their rookie year in the Super Bowl era.


Header First Logo

Header Second Logo

Pennsylvania Punch​

Battle in Philly
The battle of Pennsylvania, with this time in Philadelphia. The history of the Steelers–Eagles in Philly hasn’t been great for Pittsburgh. They have lost 10 straight games in Philadelphia, failing to cover the spread in 9 straight games on the road against the Eagles.

The Steelers are 5-0 SU/ATS when listed as underdogs this season – a true hallmark of Tomlin’s career. Tomlin is 64-35-4 ATS (65%) as an underdog, .500 ATS or better in eight straight seasons
 

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Best NFL Week 15 betting trends​


The trend: The Titans are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games

The trend: The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games

The trend: Since the 2020 season, the Ravens are an NFL-best 19-8-1 ATS in games after a loss

The trend: The Panthers are 3-14 SU & ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite

The trend: The Jets are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite

The trend: Washington is 5-1 to the Over on their team totals on the road this season


The trend: Miami’s road O/U record + Houston’s home O/U record is 2-9-1

The trend: The Steelers are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven regular season games as an underdog

The trend: The Lions are 11-2 ATS in the first half this season

The trend: The Broncos are 11-2 to the first half Over

The trend: The Cardinals are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite

The trend: The Bucs are 12-3 ATS in their last 14 road games

The trend: Six of Seattle’s seven home games have gone Under the first half total

The trend: The Bears have gone Under in eight of their last nine road games and are 0-6 ATS in the first half on the road


The trend: Every Raiders home game has gone Over the first half total, and five of Atlanta’s six road games have gone Over the first half total
 

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These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have fared well in their follow-up game, going 18-8 SU and 21-5 ATS (80.8%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+5 vs. CIN)

* Over the total is 11-1 in the last 12 of the Washington-New Orleans series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total in WAS-NO (o/u at 43.5)

NFL Streaks Betting System #7:
NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-76 SU but 59-30 ATS (66.3%) as underdogs of 5.5-points or more since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+6.5 at MIN)

*The last 26 Monday Night Football games featuring a home underdog have seen Under the total go 19-5-2 (79.2%), games producing just 38.4 PPG.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in ATL-LVR (o/u at 44)

*Minnesota is Over the total in 12 of the last 14 rematch games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-MIN (o/u at 43.5)

*Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after losing in upset fashion before the bye. (Record: 32-15-1 Under since 1992, 68.1%, +15.5 Units, 33% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-NYG (o/u at 42.5)

* INDIANAPOLIS is 24-21 SU and 32-12 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2010
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (+4 at DEN)

* CINCINNATI is on an incredible 16-1 SU and ATS run as a road favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-5 at TEN)

* NY JETS’ Aaron Rodgers is 18-5 SU and ATS with his team coming off a divisional loss since 2010
Trend Match (PLAY): NY JETS (-3 at JAX)

#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections: ARIZONA -6 vs. NE (+3.0 difference)
 

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Sunday’s 6-pack:
NFL teams with best record against spread:
10-3— Steelers, Broncos
9-4— Lions, Chargers
8-4-1— Vikings, Commanders
8-5— Eagles, Arizona, Bucs, Bills, Colts
7-5-1— Jaguars
6-5-2— Bears

Quote of the Day
“Any time coaches leave to take other jobs, it is emotional, and kids that are 18 to 22 years old are going to make emotional decisions instead of just breathing for a day or two.”
Marshall football coach Tony Gibson; his team had to opt out of their bowl game because lot of the players transferred after the previous coach moved on to another job

Sunday’s quiz
Who won the first Super Bowl played in a domed stadium?

Saturday’s quiz
Josh Harris owns the NBA’s Philadelphia 76ers and the NHL’s New Jersey Devils; he also owns the NFL’s Washington Commanders.

Friday’s quiz
In the history of the New York Knicks, Patrick Ewing has scored the most points.

**************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……..

— UConn 77, Gonzaga 71
UConn shot 62.9% inside the arc.
Huskies are 4-0 since their 0-3 trip to Maui.
Gonzaga is 2-3 in its last five games; they’re 4-3 vs top 100 teams

— UCLA 57, Arizona 54
Arizona led by 13 with 10:11 left in the game.
UCLA survived shooting 7-16 on foul line, 4-21 on arc.
Arizona is off to a 4-5 start, albeit vs schedule #24.

— Tennessee 66, Illinois 64
Gainey scored 23 off bench; he scored on driving layup at the buzzer for the win.
Illinois led by six with 10:21 left to play.
Teams combined to shoot 10-47 on the arc.

— Dayton 71, Marquette 63
Marquette led by 10 at halftime.
Dayton shot 59.5% inside the arc.

— SMU 74, LSU 64
LSU led by six points at halftime.
SMU’s bench outscored LSU’s subs 21-4.

— Western Kentucky 81, Murray State 76
Murray State led by 8 with 6:42 to play.
6-2 senior McHenry scored 29 points for the Hilltoppers.
— Marquette, Troy, as well as Army/Navy, are only basketball teams in country who haven’t had a player transfer on or off their team this season.

Famous birthdays, December 15th:
Art Howe, 78
Charlie Scott, 76
Don Johnson, 75
Helen Slater, 61
David Wingate, 61
Mo Vaughn, 57
Rodney Harrison, 52
Jonathan India, 28

— Memphis 87, Clemson 82 OT
Clemson led 69-63 with 2:22 left in regulation.
Memphis led 10-0 early; they shot 12-25 on the arc.

— St Bonaventure 74, Providence 70
St Bonaventure had 19 offensive rebounds led 35-26 at the half.
Big win for 10-1 Bonnies, who’ve played schedule #284

— Texas A&M 70, Purdue 66
Aggies out-rebounded Purdue, 34-23; they had 14 offensive boards.
6-9 F Payne was 6-6 from floor, had 16 points in 24:00 off bench.

— DePaul 91, Wichita State 72
Last 4 years, DePaul was 33-72; they’re 8-2 this year.
DePaul is #70 in experience, #356 in continuity; lot of transfers.

— Random knowledge:
The minimum salary for an NBA rookie: $1,157, 153
Minimum salary for a 10-year NBA veteran: $3,303,771

— Navy 31, Army 13
Navy QB Horvath ran ball for 204 yards, threw for 107 more.
Navy outgained Army, 378-178
Only third time in last 20 years this game went over the total.

NBA in-season tournament:
Bucks 110, Hawks 102
Milwaukee outscored the Hawks 28-19 in 4th quarter.
Bucks were 14-45 on the arc, 24-41 inside arc.
Giannis Antetokounmpo was 12-18 on the foul line.

Thunder 111, Rockets 96
Thunder outscored Houston 34-27 in third quarter.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 20 of his 32 points in the 2nd half.
Rockets shot 36.5% from the floor
Bucks-Thunder play in the championship game Tuesday night.

— South Alabama 30, Western Michigan 23
QB Davenport threw for 271 yards, in his 2nd start of the year.
Jeremiah Webb caught six passes for 182 yards.
Jaguars outgained Western Michigan, 537-317

Conference bowl records (SU/ATS)
Sun Belt 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS
MAC. 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS
 

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