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Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith wears safety pin for unity
November 16, 2016



KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith is not someone prone to making public statements, especially the kind that could be construed as political, controversial or divisive.


So when he showed up to a news conference after a victory at Carolina last Sunday, and there was a tiny silver safety pin on his shirt, a subtle act intended to promote tolerance stood out.


''It's funny,'' Smith said Wednesday, ''I didn't even think it got noticed at the time.''


Wearing safety pins has become commonplace following the presidential election as people in all walks of life, many of whom are concerned about Donald Trump's proposed policies, have made public their desire for a more inclusive and diverse society.


''I'll tell you what it wasn't: It wasn't anything political. Nothing to do with the presidential election. For me, just everything to do with tolerance, understanding,'' Smith explained before heading out to practice.


''Something I found out about at my kids' school where they were teaching about diversity and tolerance, and I don't know why. Just felt like it was pertinent at the time.''


Some athletes have expressed their dissatisfaction with Trump's election, including Tampa Bay wide receiver Mike Evans, who sat during the national anthem before last week's game against Chicago.


The Chiefs play the Buccaneers this Sunday.


That wasn't Smith's intent, though. The safety pin was meant to draw attention to the divisiveness in the country.


The election may have been part of it, but so has racial discrimination that led to the Black Lives Matter movement, and perceived attacks on sexual orientation and gender equality that have been linked to North Carolina's controversial House Bill 2.


''There's a lot going on right now. Things are crazy. I think there's a lack of understanding across the spectrum between people of different beliefs,'' Smith said. ''It had nothing to do with the presidential election or the outcome and everything to do with tolerance and diversity.''


The Chiefs have supported their players' freedom to speak on social issues.


In the season opener, cornerback Marcus Peters raised a gloved fist during the national anthem in a ''black power salute'' that was reminiscent of Tommie Smith and John Carlos at the 1968 Mexico City Olympics.


Peters said the act was meant to increase awareness of racial inequality, and that he stood in solidarity with 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who has been kneeling for the anthem this season.


''That's what is so great about America, right?'' Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. ''The NFL does a great job of letting people express themselves not only on the field as players, but also as people.


''We're just a microcosm of what this country is,'' Reid added. ''It's all healthy. That's what makes this country the greatest place in the world to live.''


Smith said he didn't mean to draw attention away from the win over the Panthers, nor did he want to create a stir in the locker room.


But he did say the locker room can be representative of the kind of tolerance people should embrace, pointing out that the 53 guys on the Chiefs roster come from different states with different social and economic backgrounds and varying religious beliefs.


''Growing up, playing team sports, there's guys in this locker room that think a vast variety of ways,'' Smith said. ''That comes back to respect and understanding, and there's a lot of respect and understanding in this locker room.''


Smith didn't say whether he would continue to wear a pin this season, but he did underscore that he didn't want the small act intended to promote unity to become disruptive.


''Like I said, it's about understanding of all humans. I don't care what you believe, where you stand - Muslim, Jewish, Christian, you name it,'' Smith said.


''I do know it's been tied here or there, but that's certainly not why I wore it. It originated from my kids' school and they're trying to teach about diversity. I wasn't trying to be a distraction.''
 

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Seahawks putting hopes of run game on Prosise, Rawls
November 16, 2016



RENTON, Wash. (AP) Thomas Rawls is back practicing with Seattle for the first time since Week 2. C.J. Prosise showed last week that he could be a solution for the Seahawks' underachieving run game.


And Christine Michael has once again been discarded by the Seahawks.


There are definitive changes that Seattle has made in an attempt to spark the 30th-ranked running offense in the NFL, centered on the belief that the combo of Rawls and Prosise can be the answer.


''We're going with guys that we want to go with,'' Seattle coach Pete Carroll said. ''We're excited about where we're moving and think it's going to fit together really well. You'll find out. You'll have a chance to see what you think here in a couple weeks.''


The makeover of Seattle's run game took a drastic turn in the past few days. First was Prosise becoming the primary ball carrier in last Sunday's 31-24 victory over New England , relegating Michael to a supporting role. Prosise had 17 carries for 66 yards, while Michael was on the field for only 11 plays and touched the ball just six times. Seattle finished with 96 yards rushing as a team, which is still a meager total compared to what the Seahawks have done in the past, but was their highest since Week 3.


It was clear that a shift was happening and Michael's time as the primary running back was ending, despite rushing for 469 yards and six touchdowns. But the move to waive Michael and replace him on the roster with undrafted rookie Troymaine Pope was a clear indication of what Seattle wants the hierarchy to be going forward.


''C.J. did a really good job. He's doing the things we like seeing in him. We look forward to continue growing with him. That's one,'' Carroll said. ''Thomas coming back, that's two, and we're all really excited about that. We've been waiting for that to happen.''


A year ago, Rawls was a breakout star, rushing for 830 yards and four touchdowns in seven starts while filling in for injured starter Marshawn Lynch. Rawls was on pace for a 1,000-yard season, despite getting limited carries early, before suffering a broken ankle in December against Baltimore.


Assuming he makes it through practice without setbacks, Rawls isn't likely to be thrown back into carrying a huge load against Philadelphia. Before getting hurt in the first half of the Week 2 loss at Los Angeles, Rawls had just 19 carries for 25 yards and no run of longer than eight yards.


But how the carries are split appears to be less of a concern after what Prosise showed against New England. There were numerous questions about the one-time wide receiver who converted to running back at Notre Dame, most notably whether he had the toughness to be more than a third-down back.


That seemed to be answered with one play in the first quarter when Prosise caught a short pass, raced down the sideline and lowered his shoulder into Duron Harmon and sent the defensive back sprawling.


''I was being physical, running downhill and initiating contact,'' Prosise said. ''That's something I've been working on my game to get better at.''


The play resonated with his teammates, who erupted on the sideline after seeing Prosise show a level of physical play that was sometimes missing with Michael.


''Our whole sideline exploded in excitement about that,'' wide receiver Doug Baldwin said. ''Football is a violent sport and when you see things like that in that nature from guys you really haven't seen anything from it gets you excited.''


NOTES: Carroll expected LT Bradley Sowell (knee) and TE Luke Willson (knee) to be available this week. But he did not commit to whether Sowell will return to left tackle or if rookie George Fant will continue to start. Carroll noted that Fant had no assignment mistakes in the win over New England. ... DE Michael Bennett (knee) is hoping to return next week against Tampa Bay. ... SS Kam Chancellor was named NFC defensive player of the week.
 

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Packers need to find balance on offense
November 16, 2016



GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) Without Eddie Lacy, the Green Bay Packers' offense has become the most pass-happy attack in the NFL.


With Lacy out following ankle surgery that's sidelined him for the past four games and will keep him out Sunday night at Washington, the Packers' sputtering offense has been at its best throwing early and often. Coach Mike McCarthy, however, wants to build a more balanced attack after Aaron Rodgers dropped back 59 times and handed off only 10 times in last week's blowout loss at Tennessee.


''I always want to run the ball more, but I also want to throw it 55 times a game, too,'' McCarthy said Wednesday. ''That's the way games are. You have to run the ball. Everything starts with running the football. You can't extend your offensive line and your pass-protection unit the way we have. Running the football is very important for a number of different reasons.''


To that end, Green Bay was awarded running back Christine Michael on waivers Wednesday. Michael joins a backfield with veteran James Starks, who returned last week after missing four games following knee surgery.


Michael was released by the Seahawks on Tuesday despite being the team's leading rusher with 469 yards (4.0 average) and six touchdowns. The hope is he will help deliver the balance the failed trade with Kansas City last month for Knile Davis didn't provide. Davis carried five times for 5 yards in two games before he was released Oct. 31.


''It allows us to get balanced again,'' receiver Jordy Nelson said of Starks and before the addition of Michael. ''I think that's what we were able to do early in the year, just stay balanced. It allowed us to get into the play action. It makes the defense worry about another playmaker out there. I think he brings the screen game into it as well, like he did last week when he scored a touchdown on a screen.


''When you don't have a running back, it's hard to do those things. We've tried to manage. I think we've done a decent job with the circumstances but, hopefully, we can get some guys healthy and get back to a normal offense.''


The Packers' offense has been anything but normal. They are passing two-thirds of the time, the highest rate in the league. Rodgers had a big game in almost upsetting Atlanta in Week 8 and rallied the team from deficits in losses to Indianapolis in Week 9 and Tennessee in Week 10. However, without the threat of a running game, the statistical production hasn't been consistently good. While Rodgers is third with 22 touchdown passes, he ranks 16th with a passer rating of 93.9, 20th with a completion rate of 63.1 percent, and 29th with 6.53 yards per dropback.


Redskins cornerback Josh Norman said don't be fooled by those mediocre numbers.


''Hey, man, let's not get things mistaken over there,'' said Norman, who called Rodgers and New England's Tom Brady the best quarterbacks in the NFL.


''That guy can hit you at any time, any place, anywhere, any given day, any given game,'' Norman added. ''I really don't care what the outside noise is. I know who we're facing and that's a cerebral quarterback that's the best of the best at what he's doing. Regardless of what others may think of him, I know for a fact that that is the toughest quarterback challenge to face because he has everything in his toolbox, in his arsenal, to make them win.''


Time is of the essence for Green Bay's offense to build an effective identity. With Starks and Michael, can it find balance? With Rodgers, is throwing the football repeatedly the way to go?


The Packers have lost three in a row and four of their last five games. At 4-5, their best road to the playoffs is through the beleaguered NFC North, in which neither Minnesota nor Detroit (both 5-4) has seized control.


''It doesn't matter stats-wise if we're running it a bunch of throwing it a bunch,'' Rodgers said. ''We just need to find a way to win. If we've got to throw it 60 times to win, we've done that before. Obviously, you'd love to have some balance, but, at this point in the season, it comes down to winning football games.''
 

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Bears LB McPhee has choice words for Manning, Giants
November 16, 2016



LAKE FOREST, Ill. (AP) Chicago Bears outside linebacker Pernell McPhee had some choice words for Eli Manning and the New York Giants.


He says the Bears are ''gonna tear'' them up and sack Manning when they visit the Giants this week.


McPhee's comment was in response to a question about New York's pass protection. The Giants have allowed just 13 sacks, including 12 on Manning, while Chicago has given up 18.


The Bears' defense ranks 11th overall and is tied for eighth in sacks with 24. McPhee has two sacks in three games after starting the season on the physically unable to perform list following offseason knee surgery.
 

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NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:


10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
11/03/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
11/06/2016 13-8-1 61.90% +2100
11/07/2016 0-1-1 0.00% -550
11/10/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/13/2016 9-12-0 42.86% -2100
11/14/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 82-104-6 44.09% -16200


O/U Picks 81-104-5 43.78% -16700


Triple Plays:..... 28 - 40 - 2


NFC EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM.....0 - 1......... ( NY GIANTS THUMPS PHILLY )
NFL GAME OF THE YEAR.................0 - 0 -1 ( CAROLINA PUSHES WITH RAMS )
TOTAL OF THE DAY .......................1 - 0.....( INDY/GB GOES OVER 53 )
NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GOY..............,..0 - 1.....( RAIDERS STOMP BRONCOS )
INTERCONFERENCE GOD.............,...0 - 1,,,,,( DENVER UPSET SAINTS )
NFC GOM................................,....0 - 1.....( PHILLY UPENDS ATLANTA )
NFC NORTH GOM...........................0 - 1......( TAMPA BAY STOMPS THE BEARS)
NFC WEST BLOW OUT.....................0 - 1 .... ( ARIZONA BARELY BEATS THE 9ERS)
SUNDAY NIGHT INTERCONFERENCE GOY....0 - 1 ( SEATTLE UPSETS NEW ENGLAND )
SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR 1 - 0 .....( WELL OVER THE 49 PTS....55 PTS )
 

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Thursday's Top Action
November 15, 2016



NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
New Orleans Saints (4-5 SU; 6-3 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (3-6 SU; 2-6 ATS)



Sportsbook.ag Odds: Carolina (-3); Total set at 52.5


Week 11 of the NFL season gets going with a NFC South showdown between two teams that are watching their seasons teeter on the brink of elimination. It's not quite panic time in New Orleans or Carolina with six games remaining after this one, but the loser of this contest is likely going to have too much ground to make up in the NFC to remotely consider a run at the playoffs. The stakes are getting higher and higher each week in the NFL and it will be interesting to see which team comes out ahead in this one.


New Orleans took the first meeting between these two by a 41-38 score a little over a month ago as they won it with a FG with 11 seconds remaining in the game. These two teams traded big plays and points with one another all afternoon, and it was the second straight meeting that ended with a score of 41-38.


In fact, three of the last four meetings between these two teams have seen the winner put up 41 points so it's no surprise to see a total of 52.5 get posted for this game.


Yet, while many believe - and for many good reasons statistically – that we will have another shootout between these rivals, I'm not so sure that will be the case. Yes, both teams are statistically poor on defense and the strength on both sides is the ability to put up points in a flurry, but the stakes are much higher in this matchup then they were a month ago and we should see these defenses step up a bit.


For one, the Saints defense appears to be playing a little better at the same time their offense has been stalling. Three of the last four Saints games have cashed 'under' tickets, and the only 'over' in that span came on the road in a blowout win over San Francisco where it was clear New Orleans let up in the second half. New Orleans is also on a 0-3-1 O/U run in their last four appearances on TNF and have a 2-5 O/U run going on the road.


Meanwhile, as the Panthers try to climb out of this hole they dug for themselves this year, it's been the defense that has been carrying the weight. They held Kansas City to 3 points in the first half last week before multiple turnovers by Carolina's offense put them in bad shape numerous times and cost them the game.


The week before that they held the Rams to just 10 points, and while no one is comparing those offenses to what the Saints bring to the table, the Panthers defense should rise up to the challenge again this week.


We also can't ignore the complete ineptitude the Panthers offense has shown the past two weeks. Cam Newton and company were shut out in the second half against KC, and the fact that they only managed 13 points – with only two FG's in the second half of that Rams game is a huge cause for concern.


Carolina realized in that first meeting with New Orleans that their chances for success decrease greatly when the game turns into a shootout and at 3-6 SU, it is the Panthers who definitely have more on the line this week.


Best Bet: Under 52.5 points
 

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NFL opening line report: Cowboys heavily favored over visiting Ravens in Week 11

Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott just keep getting it done for Dallas, and Week 10 was no exception.

Through 10 weeks of the NFL season, the team with the best record in the land is the one that lost its starting quarterback in the preseason. We talk about the Week 11 opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott just keep getting it done for Dallas, and Week 10 was no exception. The Cowboys (8-1 SU and ATS) scored two touchdowns in the final two minutes – on Elliott runs of 14 and 32 runs, sandwiched between a Pittsburgh TD – to pull out a riveting 35-30 victory as a 3-point road underdog.

Since dropping their season opener against the visiting New York Giants, the Cowboys are a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS, sitting not only atop the NFC, but the rest of the league after New England lost to Seattle on Sunday night.

Baltimore (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) has posted back-to-back wins, both in division play, and now actually leads the muddled AFC North. The Ravens drubbed league doormat Cleveland 28-7 laying 7.5 points in the Week 10 Thursday nighter.

“The Cowboys are the hottest team in football, and they’re going to attract a ton of money in this game,” Childs said. “The Ravens, having played Thursday night, have what I like to call a ‘mini bye,’ giving them three days for extra rest and extra prep time. We opened the Cowboys a full touchdown favorite, and as expected, we’ve seen our fair share of Cowboys money. But not enough to move off the key number of 7, so we added 5 more cents of juice, going to -7 (-115).”

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-6)

Seattle just might be in its back-to-back Super Bowl seasons form. The Seahawks (6-2-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) went into New England on Sunday night as a 7.5-point pup and came out with a 31-24 victory after making a goal-line stand in the final minute.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia might be recapturing some of its early-season magic. The Eagles (5-4 SU and ATS) snapped a 1-4 SU and ATS slide by handcuffing Atlanta’s potent offense in a 24-15 win laying 2 points at home.

“After a very impressive Sunday night win, we opened the Seahawks -6,” Childs said. “While the Eagles have played solid football this season, they’re a disappointing 1-4 both straight up and against the spread on the road. Seattle is arguably the loudest and toughest place to play for road teams. Throw in the Seahawks’ impressive win on the road against one of the best teams in the NFL on national TV, and I can see this line only going up.”

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (-3)

Green Bay beat Washington in the wild-card round of the playoffs last year, but Aaron Rodgers and Co. return to D.C. looking nothing like the team that posted a 35-18 win getting 2 points. On Sunday at Tennessee, the Packers (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) gave up 35 first-half points in a 47-25 loss as a 3-point favorite.

Washington is trying to get in gear in the NFC playoff chase. The Redskins (5-3-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) topped Minnesota 26-20 as a 2.5-point home fave Sunday.

“No question, the Packers are the most disappointing team this season. For a team that had Super Bowl aspirations, they’re in a dogfight just to make the playoffs,” Childs said. “That said, they’ve been a bookmaker’s dream, because week in and week out, they’re taking action from the public and not getting the money. But this is flat out must win game for the Packers, against a team they dominated last year in the playoffs.

“The Redskins are off a very nice win over the Vikings, but playing in the ultra-competitive NFC East, this game is huge for them to keep pace for a wild-card spot. Throw in the fact that the ‘Skins face three straight road games after this game, and it’s almost a must-win home game for them.”

Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (-5.5)

Oakland is in unfamiliar territory for this time of year, tied atop the AFC West with Kansas City, and both those teams share the conference’s best record with New England. The Raiders (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) will be well-rested, coming off their bye week after stuffing defending Super Bowl champion Denver 30-20 as a 1-point chalk in Week 9.

Houston (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) maintained its lead in the lackluster AFC South by beating Jacksonville 24-21 catching 3 points on the road Sunday.

“The Raiders are coming off arguably their biggest win in franchise history in the past 10 years,” Childs said. “They beat the defending Super Bowl champs at home in a Sunday night prime-time game. They are playing with a ton of confidence, having won three straight and six of their last seven games.

“But the Texans are off a solid win on the road, albeit against a very bad Jags teams. It was Houston’s first road win of the season. We opened Raiders -5.5, and all the early action is on the Raiders, so we just went to -6 this morning.”
 

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

Thursday, November 17

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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 5) at CAROLINA (3 - 6) - 11/17/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 61-39 ATS (+18.1 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
CAROLINA is 80-47 ATS (+28.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 54-27 ATS (+24.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 20

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TENNESSEE (5 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 5) - 11/20/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 5-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 7) at DETROIT (5 - 4) - 11/20/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 27-50 ATS (-28.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 56-82 ATS (-34.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (7 - 2) - 11/20/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 60-36 ATS (+20.4 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (2 - 7) at NY GIANTS (6 - 3) - 11/20/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 35-60 ATS (-31.0 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 32-55 ATS (-28.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (4 - 4 - 1) at MINNESOTA (5 - 4) - 11/20/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (4 - 5) at CINCINNATI (3 - 5 - 1) - 11/20/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (5 - 4) at DALLAS (8 - 1) - 11/20/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
DALLAS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
DALLAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
DALLAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (4 - 5) at CLEVELAND (0 - 10) - 11/20/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 97-69 ATS (+21.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (5 - 4) at LA RAMS (4 - 5) - 11/20/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 52-78 ATS (-33.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 175-217 ATS (-63.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-217 ATS (-63.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 57-86 ATS (-37.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 64-91 ATS (-36.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (7 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 8) - 11/20/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 229-185 ATS (+25.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 229-185 ATS (+25.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (5 - 4) at SEATTLE (6 - 2 - 1) - 11/20/2016, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (4 - 5) at WASHINGTON (5 - 3 - 1) - 11/20/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 176-125 ATS (+38.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 89-64 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 66-40 ATS (+22.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 56-90 ATS (-43.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 21-44 ATS (-27.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, November 21

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HOUSTON (6 - 3) vs. OAKLAND (7 - 2) - 11/21/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

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Week 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Thursday, November 17

8:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games


Sunday, November 20

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. DALLAS
Baltimore is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Baltimore

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games at home

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Arizona
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Indianapolis's last 23 games when playing Tennessee
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games
NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
MIAMI vs. LOS ANGELES
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Los Angeles's last 21 games
Los Angeles is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

4:25 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. SAN FRANCISCO
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
New England is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing New England
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

4:25 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. SEATTLE
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Seattle13-4-1 SU in its last 18 games
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. WASHINGTON
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Washington's last 14 games
Washington is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home


Monday, November 21

8:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. OAKLAND
Houston is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
 

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Short Sheet

Week 11

Thurs – Nov. 17

New Orleans at Carolina, 8:25 PM ET
New Orleans: 47-29 OVER after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
Carolina: 14-5 ATS in home games against conference opponents


Sun – Nov. 20

Tennessee at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM ET
Tennessee: 2-12 ATS versus division opponents
Indianapolis: 55-36 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5

Jacksonville at Detroit, 1:00 PM ET
Jacksonville: 7-0 ATS in road games after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
Detroit: 13-35 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4

Tampa Bay at Kansas City, 1:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay: 10-2 ATS in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games
Kansas City: 40-61 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Chicago at NY Giants, 1:00 PM ET
Chicago: 1-7 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49
New York: 63-40 ATS off a home win

Arizona at Minnesota, 1:00 PM ET
Arizona: 6-0 UNDER in dome games
Minnesota: 9-2 ATS as an underdog

Buffalo at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM ET
Buffalo: 11-2 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses
Cincinnati: 14-5 UNDER in the second half of the season

Baltimore at Dallas, 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore: 32-17 UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Dallas: 6-0 ATS after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 11-3 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
Cleveland: 1-8 ATS versus division opponents

Miami at Los Angeles, 4:05 PM ET
Miami: 34-17 UNDER after having won 4 out of their last 5
Los Angeles: 76-107 ATS after playing their last game on the road

New England at San Francisco, 4:25 PM ET
New England: 9-1 ATS after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored
San Francisco:

Philadelphia at Seattle, 4:25 PM ET
Philadelphia: 14-5 OVER in the second half of the season
Seattle: 21-8 ATS in home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous

Green Bay at Washington, 8:30 PM ET
Green Bay: 32-16 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3
Washington: 39-66 ATS as a home favorite


Mon – Nov. 21

Houston at Oakland, 8:30 PM ET
Houston: 19-8 ATS in road games in November
Oakland: 6-17 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread
 

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Wiseguys are advising that these Week 11 NFL lines are going to move

The Chiefs have reeled off five straight wins and now share (with New England and Oakland) the best record in the AFC at 7-2.

Game to bet now

Tampa Bay at Kansas City (-7.5)

Looks like we’ve been sleeping on the Chiefs, who have reeled off five straight wins and now share (with New England and Oakland) the best record in the AFC at 7-2. Granted, those last four wins (New Orleans, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Carolina) have come against teams with a combined 13-23 record, but they all count. The Chiefs have this one more game against a mediocre opponent before running a Denver-Atlanta-Oakland gauntlet which will go a long way toward determining if they can stand up to the league’s iron. Tampa Bay hasn’t been able to string two wins together this season but remains in both the NFC South and playoff mixes in a muddled NFC. Betting is steady on both ends in this one and the line should remain stable barring any new injury reports or heavy one-way betting.

Game to wait on

Houston at Oakland (-5.5) (Monday night)

The AFC West is where the action is this season, where the Chiefs and Broncos now have to contend with the Raiders. The swag is definitely back in Oakland, where the Raiders are giving their fans plenty to remember in what may be their final year on the coast before moving to Las Vegas. Oakland has won three in a row, is coming off its biggest win in years (at home over Denver on Nov. 6), has had a bye week off to rest and get healthy, and has three more home games in a row. Houston, which is 6-3 but has been outscored by 188-161 this season, looks like the weakest division leader. The Texans had just enough gas to get by Jacksonville last week, but there is concern about Brock Osweiler, who was just 14 for 27 against the Jags and threw for only 99 yards.

Total to watch

Buffalo at Cincinnati (46.5)

At 4-5 the Bills look like they’re headed for another trip to Mediocreville, but there is one bright spot – namely, Buffalo has shown that it can score points on the road. In fact, the Bills have averaged nearly 27 points in their last three road games and are a solid 7-2 on the over this season. The semi-burst has allowed the Bills to move toward the middle of the pack in the league offensively, and bodes well for this Sunday’s game against the Bengals – who rank 24th in the league defensively. Over players have already bet this game up a point from its 46.5 open.
 

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NFL Week 11 lines that make you go hmmm...


Books opened with the Cowboys as touchdown favorites versus the Ravens, but one Las Vegas oddsmaker doesn't agree with that spread.

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-6, 46)



This opener struck me as a little low from the onset, especially as it appears that Seattle may be reaching its preseason hype and potential after beating the New England Patriots this past week.


I made this number at the -7 mark, actually - no lower than -7 (-120), so I was surprised to see this a couple of plays below the key number. But I understand why it stands at -6. After their first road victory of the season against a lame Chicago team, the Eagles have lost four straight away from Philadelphia. To their credit they hung close in all four losses but playing in Seattle may be a bigger bite than they can chew.


Seattle’s results at home have not been by wide margins by any means and this too, definitely played into the early low number. But sometimes you can’t go by what was, and have to forecast that these two teams do not equate to their previous results. I see nothing but pay dirt for Seattle this week and do not fear a letdown after their big win in New England. I definitely see Seahawk money come kickoff so the play is early in the week for this one if you’re a Seattle backer.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 44.5)



If you haven’t noticed, the Chiefs are on a five-game win streak which has been driven by their defense. Allowing a tad over 15 points per game in the current skein, Kansas City is undefeated at home as well. I made this game closer to -8.5, bordering -9, as I am unimpressed with Tampa Bay’s slick 3-1 record on the road.


Add to that, that the Buccaneers last three wins overall have come against Carolina, San Francisco and Chicago – who have a combined 6-21 record. I’m missing something here that has the inferior team within a one-possession game.


The Chiefs have the incentive here as they are engaged with Oakland and Denver in the hotly contested AFC West. They also possess the playoff advantages in the division that they know can be lost in a moment’s notice.


We’re coming into the time where we will be playing the teams that are playing well, fighting for playoff positioning and playing in venues where victories are common, The Chiefs fit that bill in this one and we liken them to throw down the hammer here.


Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 45)


Dallas has been living the dream this year but a closer look unveils a streak of excellent games against mediocre opponents. Though last week’s win over Pittsburgh is well noted, the emotional high of the quality game spells letdown against a sneaky-good team that possesses an excellent defense of their own.


Baltimore is 5-4 and leading its division. This is due to the Ravens’ defensive efforts throughout the season - a consistent resistance that has yielded scores of 20 or less in six of their nine games. Coming off two straight wins, including a win of their own over Pittsburgh just two weeks ago, tells me the Ravens can get the deal done this week. They may not win, but this looks like a closer game than what bookmakers are currently dealing. I made this game in the -6 range. I actually see a Baltimore +7.5 on the board so if you can grab it, do so.


This game appears to have opened at -6.5 at a scant few places before some early pops on the line lifted this up a little higher than what I think is achievable. This is not on the bookmakers as much as the early money drove this to unattainable levels. Maybe a set up? We’ll have to see where the money goes on game day. But for now, if you see the hook, take it. Just don’t miss out on the points before it goes below the key number.


Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (-6, 46)


My first instincts said this line was too low for the home favorite. I was mistaken with Houston this past week against Jacksonville and overvalued the Jaguars’ level of play and expectant result. But this is not a last-place 2-7 Jacksonville team. This is a first-place 7-2 Oakland team on the back side of two consecutive road games.


My gut call on this line was -7. But again, I realize why oddsmakers made this lower with what Houston has done to this point. All the more to our advantage if you like the Raiders as I do this week. Both teams beat Jacksonville away - Houston by three, Oakland by 17. But where Oakland really grabs my attention is its three-game win streak, the last being a 10-point win over Denver at home then a nice break this past week with the bye week.


A possible letdown game? I don’t think so only because this Raiders team has momentum and a chip on its shoulder. Kick in the fact the Silver and Black are in a close fight with Kansas City and the Broncos, all within a half-game of each other for the top spot in the West, I see the Raiders rolling in this one and collecting another feather in their helmet, beating another first-place team.


As far as where the money goes, I’m not as sure that Houston won’t have its backers so you might want to wait and see when the first crack in the line appears and go from there.
 

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Dunkel


Week 11


Thursday, November 17


New Orleans @ Carolina



Game 309-310
November 17, 2016 @ 8:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
127.765
Carolina
140.152
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 12 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-3); Under









NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 11



Thursday's game


Saints (4-5) @ Panthers (3-6)—
Favorites covered six of last seven Thursday night games. Both these teams suffered tough losses last week- NO lost on a blocked PAT, Panthers blew 17-6 lead with 12:00 to go. Carolina is 2-3 at home; four of their last five games overall were decided by exactly 3 points. Saints are 4-0 vs spread on road this season, 2-2 SU, with average total in those games, New Orleans (+2.5) won first meeting 41-38 in Superdome five weeks ago; Saints led 21-3 early on- Carolina tied game with 2:58 left but Lutz nailed 52-yard FG with 0:11 left for win. Carolina is 6-3 in last nine series games, winning three of last four played here. Underdogs are 3-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games. Three of Saints’ last four games stayed under total.








NFL


Thursday, November 17



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football betting preview: Saints at Panthers
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Newton has plenty of weapons at his disposal as he tries to exploit a Saints defense that is yielding an NFL fourth-worst 400.6 yards per contest.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 52)


The New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers won't have long to stew following heart-wrenching defeats as the NFC South rivals tangle on Thursday night at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. The Saints fell on the wrong end of history on Sunday when they saw an extra point returned for a defensive two-point conversion in a 25-23 setback to Denver while the Panthers let a 14-point fourth-quarter lead evaporate in a 20-17 loss to Kansas City.


"I think (the short turnaround is) a good thing because all you want to do is get back on the field as fast as you can," New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees said. Brees (NFL second-best 2,992 yards) torched Carolina in the first encounter, throwing for 465 yards and four touchdowns before rookie Wil Lutz drilled a 52-yard field goal with 11 seconds remaining in a 41-38 win on Oct. 16. Cam Newton had a strong performance in his own right with three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) against the Saints, but the reigning NFL MVP ignited the meltdown against the Chiefs as his ill-advised pass was intercepted by Eric Berry and returned 42 yards for a score. "What we've done is put our backs completely against the wall. There is no room for error now," coach Ron Rivera said of the cellar-dwelling Panthers, who are saddled with an 0-3 mark in the division.


TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY:
The Panthers opened as 4-point home favorites and that line was bet down to -3 before recovering slightly to the current number of -3.5. The total hit the board at 51 and was bumped up a full point to 52 by Tuesday afternoon. Check out the complete history here.


WEATHER REPORT: It should be a perfect night for football at Bank Of America Stadium on Thursday night. Conditions are expected to be clear throughout the day with game-time temperatures in the mid-50's and barely a whisper of wind (1 mph).


WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Both the Saints and Panthers look to recover off of demoralizing losses in week ten. Oddly enough the main reasoning behind the Panthers loss is a continuation of their earlier matchup against the Saints. They've been able to put together two halves of consistent football. Will the Saints find the same success on the road?"


INJURY REPORT:


Saints - S K. Vaccaro (Probable, possible suspension), RB D. Lasco (Questionable, hamstring), T T. Armstead (Questionable, leg), WR T. Lewis (Questionable, undisclosed), LB S. Anthony (Questionable, hamstring), CB D. Breaux (Questionable, leg), RB T. Cadet (Questionable, toe), LB D. Ellerbe (Questionable, quadricep), P T. Morstead (Questionable, ankle), DL D. Onyemata (Questionable, knee), OL A. Young (Questionable, undisclosed).


Panthers - C R. Kalil (Probable, shoulder), RB J. Stewart (Probable, undisclosed), LB S. Thompson (Questionable, knee), S C. Jones (Questionable, concussion), DT K. Love (Questionable, knee), C G. Gradkowski (Questionable, knee), LB A. Klein (Questionable, concussion), TE E. Dickson (Questionable, calf), T M. Oher (Out, concussion).


ABOUT THE SAINTS (4-5 SU, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 O/U): Brandin Cooks enjoyed a career day in his previous encounter with Carolina, highlighting his career-high 173-yard performance with an 87-yard touchdown. The lengthy score began a string of four touchdowns in the last five games for the 23-year-old Cooks, who leads the team with six TDs and 694 yards receiving. Fellow wideout Michael Thomas leads rookies in catches (51), receiving yards (613) and touchdown receptions (five), but was held to his lowest yardage total (40) on Sunday and also lost a pair of fumbles - his first two of the season. Willie Snead, a former member of the Panthers' practice squad, had two touchdowns on Sunday, marking the first time he reached the end zone since the first two weeks of the season.


ABOUT THE PANTHERS (3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS, 5-4 O/U): Newton has plenty of weapons at his disposal as he tries to exploit a Saints defense that is yielding an NFL fourth-worst 400.6 yards per contest. Kelvin Benjamin looks to atone after his costly fumble led to the Chiefs' game-winning field goal with another strong outing versus New Orleans, against which he reeled in eight receptions on 14 targets in the first meeting. Fellow wideout Devin Funchess had a touchdown reception on Sunday against Kansas City and also had a 17-yard catch for a score in the first encounter with the Saints. Greg Olsen had six catches for 94 yards in the first meeting with New Orleans and leads all tight ends with 50 receptions and 712 yards receiving.


TRENDS:


* Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Panthers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Over is 8-0 in Saints last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.


CONSENSUS: The road team underdog New Orleans Saints are picking up 62 percent of the point spread action and Over is grabbing 75 percent of the totals wagers.
 

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NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:


10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
11/03/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
11/06/2016 13-8-1 61.90% +2100
11/07/2016 0-1-1 0.00% -550
11/10/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/13/2016 9-12-0 42.86% -2100
11/14/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 82-104-6 44.09% -16200


O/U Picks 81-104-5 43.78% -16700


Triple Plays:..... 28 - 40 - 2


NFC EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM.....0 - 1......... ( NY GIANTS THUMPS PHILLY )
NFL GAME OF THE YEAR.................0 - 0 -1 ( CAROLINA PUSHES WITH RAMS )
TOTAL OF THE DAY .......................1 - 0.....( INDY/GB GOES OVER 53 )
NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GOY..............,..0 - 1.....( RAIDERS STOMP BRONCOS )
INTERCONFERENCE GOD.............,...0 - 1,,,,,( DENVER UPSET SAINTS )
NFC GOM................................,....0 - 1.....( PHILLY UPENDS ATLANTA )
NFC NORTH GOM...........................0 - 1......( TAMPA BAY STOMPS THE BEARS)
NFC WEST BLOW OUT.....................0 - 1 .... ( ARIZONA BARELY BEATS THE 9ERS)
SUNDAY NIGHT INTERCONFERENCE GOY....0 - 1 ( SEATTLE UPSETS NEW ENGLAND )
SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR 1 - 0 .....( WELL OVER THE 49 PTS....55 PTS )
 

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THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 17


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


NO at CAR 08:25 PM


CAR -3.5 *****


U 52.5 *****
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 11


Sunday's games



Titans (5-5) @ Colts (4-5)— Indy (+2.5) won first meeting 34-26 in Music City, scoring two TDs in 0:08 span after 2:00 warning- it was their 10th win in row over Titans (23-4 in last 27). Tennessee lost its last eight visits here. Titans are 2-2 on road, 2-2 as road dogs, losing by 7 in Houston, 8 in San Diego, with wins at Detroit/Miami. In last three games, Tennessee averaged 12.2/7.3/9.8 yards/pass attempt- they’ve averaged 32 pts/game in their last six games. Colts are 2-2 at home, beating Bears by 6, Chargers by 4; they’re 0-3 this season when scoring less than 26 points. Last seven Tennessee games went over total; average total in their last five games is 53.7- over is 7-2 in Indy games. Colts covered nine of their last 11 post-bye games, seven in row when favored.


Jaguars (2-7) @ Lions (5-4)— Hard to lay 7 points with Detroit when they’ve trailed every game this year in 4th quarter; all nine of their games were decided by 7 or less points. Detroit is 3-1 at home, 1-2 as home favorite, with wins by 1-3-3 points and loss to Tennessee. Jax lost its last four games; in two games since changing OC’s, Jaguars lost by 5-3 points, scoring 17.5 pts/game while turning ball over six times on 21 possessions. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-10 vs spread, 3-6 at home. AFC South road dogs are 4-5 vs spread. Jags won three of five series games, only one of which was decided by less than 5 points- teams split two meetings here. Detroit won its last four post-bye games, covered nine of last 12. Three of last four Jaguar games went over total; Detroit’s last three games stayed under.


Buccaneers (4-5) @ Chiefs (7-2)— KC is 7-2 this year, 18-3 in its last 21 games but in their last two games, both wins, Chiefs scored one offensive TD on 22 drives, with eight FGAs. Chiefs have two wins this year when they trailed by 14+ in 4th quarter, only two games like that in NFL this year. KC is 4-0 at home this year but 1-3 as home favorite, winning at Arrowhead by 6-21-6-5 points- three of their last four wins are by 6 or less points. Tampa Bay scored 30.5 pts/game in splitting its last four games; Bucs are 3-1 on road, 1-1 as road dog, with only loss 40-7 at Arizona in Week 2- they won at Atlanta/Carolina. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-1 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 5-6. Bucs’ last four games went over total; Chiefs’ last five games stayed under.


Bears (2-7) @ Giants (6-3)— Big Blue’s six wins are by total of 21 points; their biggest win was 17-10 over Rams in London, when one of their two TD’s was scored by defense. Only one of nine giant games was decided by more than 7 points. New York is 4-1 SU at home, 1-3 as a home favorite, with home wins by 3-4-1-5 points, with loss to Washington. Bears ran 12 plays for minus-13 yards in second half at Tampa LW; Chicago lost four of last five games, is 0-5 on road, 0-4 as a road dog, losing away games by 9-14-6-16-26 points. There was lot of talk Monday that Cutler could on way out of Chicago soon. Teams split last six series games, with last one in ’13. Bears won three of last four visits here, but last one was six years ago. Under is 6-3 in Giant games, 3-1 in last four Chicago games.


Cardinals (4-4-1) @ Vikings (5-4)— Minnesota is in freefall, losing last four games after a 5-0 start. Vikings are 3-1 in their new stadium, with only loss in OT to Lions. Arizona allowed 28 pts/game in losing two of first three road games, with only win at SF; Cardinals turned ball over six times in last two games, is 0-1-1 this year in games with spread of 3 or less points. Minnesota is 5-2 in last seven games of a series where home team won last five meetings; Arizona beat them 23-20 LY in desert, thanks to +3 TO ratio. Cardinals lost last eight visits to Twin Cities, with last win here in ’77. NFC North teams are 9-15 vs spread outside the division; NFC West teams are 7-13. Three of last four Arizona games stayed under total; under is 7-2 in Viking games. This is only second game this year on artificial turf for the Cardinals (lost 33-18 in Buffalo).


Bills (4-5) @ Bengals (3-5-1)— Short week for Cincy after tough 21-20 loss to Giants Monday; Bengals are 1-3-1 in last five games, 2-1 as home favorites this year, winning by 15-14 points after a loss to Denver. Buffalo lost five of last seven post-bye games; they were favored in four of them. Bills allowed 100 points in losing last three games- they’re 2-3 on road, with wins vs QB’s Keenum/Brissett- their last three road games went over. Buffalo is 1-3 this season in games with spread of 3 or less points; Bengals are 1-3-1 in such games. Home side lost five of last seven series games; Bills won four of last five visits here, but Cincy won last three meetings overall, by 3-3-13 points. Over is 7-1 in last eight Buffalo, 3-1 in last four Bengal games. Buffalo is 0-4 this season in games decided by six or less points.


Ravens (5-4) @ Cowboys (8-1)— Dallas won/covered eight games in row; Romo may dress as a backup here, but QB Prescott is the man for Cowboys now. Pokes are 3-1 at home, 2-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 14-14-6 points, with loss to Giants in Week 1. Ravens are 2-2 on road, beating Jax/Browns; both their road losses were in Swamp Stadium (0-2 as a road underdog this year). None of Baltimore’s eight losses are by more than 8 points. Baltimore won last five series games; last time Dallas beat them was in ’91, when Ravens were the Cleveland Browns. AFC North teams are 4-9 vs spread in non-divisional road games. NFC East teams are 15-5 vs spread outside the division, 9-2 at home. Under is 4-1 in Ravens’ last five games, 1-3 in Cowboys’ last four.


Steelers (4-5) @ Browns (0-10)— Not only is Cleveland terrible (outscored 60-8 in second half of last three games), they haven’t had their bye yet so they’re tired too. Browns lost six of last seven games with Pittsburgh, losing 30-9/28-12 LY; Steelers won five of last six visits here, with three of five wins by 16+ points. Cleveland is 1-5-1 vs spread in its last seven games; 1-2-1 as home underdogs, losing home tilts by 5-20-3-25 points. Pitt lost its last four games, allowing 28 pts/game; Steelers lost last three road games, scoring four TD’s on 35 drives while scoring 10.7 pts/game. One thing though; all four Steeler wins this year are by 8+ points (wins by 22-8-29-18 points); they’re 0-3 in games decided by less than eight points. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 11-4 vs spread this season.


Dolphins (5-4) @ Rams (4-5)— Rookie QB Goff gets his first NFL start here, vs Dolphin defense that picked Rivers off four times in 4th quarter alone LW in San Diego. Miami won/covered its last four games, scoring 29 pts/game; they’re 1-3 on road, with only win in San Diego- they scored TD on defense/special teams in three of last five games. Bar has been set low for Goff; on their last 32 drives, LA scored one TD- they didn’t score a TD in two of their four wins this year. Rams are 1-2 in Coliseum, scoring 12.7 pts/game (two TDs on 31 drives). Miami is 10-2 in last 12 games against the Rams, winning last three; last series win for Rams was in 2001. Fish are 5-1 vs Rams in LA/St Louis. Major question in this game is if Goff’s presence will take a defender out of box, open up more running lanes for Gurley.


Patriots (7-2) @ 49ers (1-8)— Over last nine years, NE is 14-8 vs spread coming off a loss as a favorite. Brady comes home to play here, but Gronkowski may not play after lung was injured in Seattle game. New England is 4-0 on road this year, 3-0 as road favorite, winning on foreign soil by 2-20-11-16 points. 49ers lost last eight games (1-7 vs spread); they’re 1-4 as a home underdog this year, losing last four home tilts by 7-12-17-18 points. Patriots won last visit to SF 30-21 in 2008, their only win in five road games vs 49ers; they won three of last four games with Niners, after losing seven of first eight. AFC East teams are 6-3 as a non-divisional favorite; NFC West teams are 3-7 as an underdog, 0-4 at home. Over is 6-2 in Niners’ last eight games, 3-1 in Patriots’ last four.


Eagles (5-4) @ Seahawks (6-2-1)— Seattle got big win in Foxboro last week, could have letdown here. Seahawks are 4-0 at home this year, 1-3 as home favorites, winning at home by 2-19-2-6 points. Eagles lost four of last six games after a 3-0 start; they lost last four road games, allowing 28 pts/game but had strong defensive effort in 24-15 home win over Falcons LW. Philly is 4-2 vs spread as an underdog this year. Home side lost seven of last eight series games; Seattle won four of last five meetings. Philly is 5-3 in Seattle, but hasn’t been here since 2011. NFC West teams are 7-13 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC East teams are 15-5. Over is 4-2 in Eagles’ last six games, 5-2 in Seattle’s last seven. Seahawk opponents converted 27 of last 42 on third down, not good.


Packers (4-5) @ Redskins (5-3-1)— Green Bay is in free fall, losing last three games while allowing 111 points- they were down 35-10 in 2nd quarter in Nashville LW. Pack lost last three road games, by 3-1-22 points; their only road win was in opener at Jackaonville. Green Bay is 1-0 as an underdog this year. Redskins are 5-1-1 in last seven games after an 0-2 start (two home losses); they’re 2-1 as a home favorite, winning home games by 11-7-6 points. Washington is 30-57 on 3rd down in its last four games, helping improve field position. Packers won six of last seven series games, winning two of last three visits here, including a 35-18 win in a playoff game LY. Over is 7-2 in Washington games, 3-0 in Packers’ last three. NFC North teams are 5-9 vs spread in non-divisional road games.




Monday's game
Texans (6-3) vs Raiders (7-2) (in Mexico City)— Oakland won six of last seven games, covered last three, scoring 93 points (10 TDs on last 37 drives). Raiders ran ball for 163.3 yds/game last three games- both their losses this year came at home. Texans got first road win in Jacksonville last week; they’re 1-3 away from home, with all three losses by 18+ points- they’re 2-2 as an underdog this year. Oakland is 7-2 despite being favored in only three of nine games (1-2 as a favorite). Houston won six of last nine series games. Raiders are 2-11 in last 13 post-bye games but they covered last four. AFC South teams are 6-8 as non-divisional underdogs; AFC West teams are 8-6 as non-divisional favorites. Over is 7-2 in Oakland games, 4-2 in Houston’s last six games.
 

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 11


The Titans have been an above-average team at getting to the QB this season, ranking 10th in sack rate at 6.76 percent.


Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 52)


Titans' sack-happy ways vs. Colts' QB protection issues



Second place in the AFC North is up for grabs Sunday afternoon as the Titans' improving defense meets Andrew Luck and the high-octane Colts in Indianapolis. This game could very well be decided by how well Indianapolis can protect its franchise quarterback - and judging by the sack stats through the first 10 weeks of the season, Luck might find himself on the run - or worse, on his back - a healthy number of times.


The Titans have been an above-average team at getting to the QB this season, ranking 10th in sack rate at 6.76 percent. Veteran linebackers Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan led the way in that regard, combining for 15.5 sacks and 114 sack yards lost. And when it comes to pressuring quarterbacks in hostile territory, Tennessee is even better - recording the third-best road sack rate (8.57 percent) in the league.


Meanwhile, the Colts may possess one of the most dangerous offensive attacks in football, but keeping Luck upright has been a legitimate problem so far in 2016. Indianapolis has the highest sack rate against in the league at 8.68 percent; Indianapolis has yielded 33 sacks through the first 10 games, even after limiting Tennessee to just two in a 34-26 win over the Titans back on Oct. 24. Things should be much tougher for Luck and the Colts this time around.

Daily fantasy watch: Tennessee D/ST




Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-1, 40.5)


Dolphins' red-zone stinginess vs. Rams' lack of scoring chances



Don't look now, but the Dolphins have rekindled their fading playoff hopes on the strength of a four-game winning streak that has surged them above the .500 mark for the season. At the same time, the Los Angeles Rams are clinging to postseason hopes by a thread despite escaping with a thrilling 9-6 win over the New York Jets last week. The Rams have struggled getting into the red zone all season, and things don't get any easier this weekend.


Much of the attention for the Miami resurgence has fallen on running back Jay Ajayi, but the Dolphins' defense deserves just as much credit - if not more. Miami enters the week ranked sixth in the NFL in fewest red-zone visits allowed per game at just 2.9; only Baltimore, Arizona, Minnesota, Green Bay and the Jets have been stingier. It's a modest improvement from the 2015 campaign, when the Dolphins allowed 3.1 opponent red-zone visits per game.


As for the Rams, well, they're about as bad as you would expect them to be given their widespread scoring troubles. Los Angeles is tied with the Ravens for the fewest red-zone scoring chances per game at 2.3; the Cleveland Browns are the only other team below 2.5. And if you can believe it, that rate is actually better than what the Rams put up in their last season in St. Louis, when they made just 2.2 red-zone visits per game. Ugh.


Daily fantasy fade: RB Todd Gurley




Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (-5.5, 46)


Texans' interior D-line troubles vs. Raiders' stacked O-line



The Raiders find themselves in a three-horse race atop the AFC West in what has shaped up as the best division race in the league. Coming into the week tied with the Kansas City Chiefs and a half-game ahead of the Denver Broncos, Oakland faces a stiff test in Week 11 against a Texans team that has the outright lead in the AFC South. But the Raiders have an enormous advantage it will look to exploit against visiting Houston this weekend.


Oakland has built one of the most impressive offensive lines in the game, a group that deserves much of the credit for the successes of quarterback Derek Carr, running back Latavius Murray and receivers Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. Three of the team's five starting O-linemen - LT Donald Penn, LG Kelechi Osemele and C Rodney Hudson - have Pro Football Focus grades of 84.8 or better. Simply put, the left side of the Raiders' offensive line is second only to the Dallas Cowboys' front.


Houston has elite ends to counter the Oakland periphery - DRE Jadeveon Clowney (79.2 PFF grade) and DLE Whitney Mercilus (83.9) are certainly capable of pressuring the quarterback. But the interior duo of DRT Vince Wilfork (45.7) and DLT Christian Covington (42.3) is among the worst in the league, and could make things incredibly difficult for the Texans' next level of defense, particularly against Oakland's stout rush attack.


Daily fantasy watch: RB Latavius Murray
 

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Vegas Money Moves - Week 11
November 18, 2016



The betting public in Las Vegas is jumping on their favorites teams in NFL Week 11 again hooking up Dallas, New England and whoever is playing the Browns and 49ers, and why not because that combination is 30-7 against-the-spread this season. But before we get into the line moves initiated from sharps and what the public is playing on their parlays, let's talk a bit about the cold front hitting the northeast this weekend.


We haven't had to pay too much attention to weather conditions the first 10 weeks of the season because its been relatively nice everywhere, for the most part. But snow fell in Denver on Thursday night (Broncos have a bye this week) and a couple of NFL games this weekend should have weather play a role in the outcome, in particular the totals.


Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says the cold and snow isn't that big of deal when dealing the sides and totals, but when factoring in wind conditions, that's when it has a huge effect to the numbers. Its a good piece of advice to follow, and sharps are.


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Steelers as 9.5-point favorites at Cleveland, a number inflated just because the books know who the masses are going to bet. The total opened at 49.5. But with a 40 percent chance of snow showers and gusting winds off the lake up to 30 mph and a wind chill of 28 degrees, the Steelers are now -8 and the total has been dropped to 44.5. No matter how good a QB is, 30 mph winds are a tall task to overcome.


Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick said sharp action has the Browns once again, which isn't necessarily because of the weather, but because there was 2.5 to 3-points of value with them -- just like last Thursday against Baltimore. Stations opened the total Monday at 50 and large bets pushed them down daily to 44.5 by Friday which is what most books in town are showing.


The Westgate opened the Giants as six-point home favorites against the lowly Bears with a total at 47.5, and they've been bet up to -7.5 and the total has been bet down to 43.5 -- in part because of winds up to 25 mph with a wind chill at 38 degrees. McCormick says his books have taken lots of public action on the Giants.


Station books have also taken large bets on the Eagles-Seahawks 'under' from 46 down to 43. Not much wind is expected in Seattle, but there's a 40 percent chance of rain. The interesting part of that sharp move is that Philly has gone 'over' the total in all five of their road games and Russell Wilson looks healthy and comes off his best performance of the season at New England.


There's a 40 percent chance of light rain at San Francisco when the Patriots visit Sunday afternoon -- not much wind, but that's not why sharp money took the 49ers at +14 all the way down +12 which has a few books at -11.5 on Friday. Just like the inflated number against the Browns, the Patriots were inflated by 2.5 to 3-points just to make the public lay a bad number and attract large money on the value with the underdog. It worked. The 49ers ended and seven-game non-cover streak last week in a 23-20 last second loss at Arizona (-14).


McCormick said another sharp play among his 19 books in town was on the Vikings at home against the sluggish Cardinals. Minnesota is on a four-game losing streak, but large money bet them at +1, pick 'em, -1 and -1.5. They're currently the high Las Vegas number at -2 with a total at 40.


Stations top public plays are Pittsburgh, Dallas, New England, Seattle and the Giants, but bettors were thrown a loop last week as Dallas (8-1 ATS) was their only team to come through. Bettors are also low on cash.


"Low handles so far this week after last weeks big win for the books," said McCormick.
 

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Pick Six - Week 11
November 18, 2016



Week 10 Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS
Overall Record: 30-30 SU, 27-31-1 ATS


Review: The early games turned out well with the Chiefs, Eagles, and Broncos all winning as underdogs. The late games not so much with San Diego and Pittsburgh falling short as home favorites.


Titans at Colts (-3, 53 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


Tennessee
Record: 5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS, 8-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1


The AFC South race is still wide-open at the halfway point as Tennessee has played its way back into the pack. The Titans eclipsed the 35-point mark for the third straight week in last Sunday’s 47-25 home rout of the Packers as three-point underdogs. Tennessee keeps cashing OVER tickets on a consistent basis by hitting the OVER in seven consecutive games, including three in a row away from Nissan Stadium. The Titans have struggled against the Colts over the years by losing 10 straight meetings, including a 34-26 home defeat last month.


Indianapolis
Record: 4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS, 7-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1


The Colts are fresh off the bye week as Indianapolis held off Green Bay in its last contest, 31-26 as 7 ½-point underdogs. Indianapolis has yet to win back-to-back games this season, as two of its losses off a victory are by three points apiece to division foes Jacksonville and Houston. The Colts own a 2-1 SU/ATS record as a home favorite, one season after going 2-4 ATS when laying points at Lucas Oil Stadium. This is the fourth home total of 50 or higher this season for the Colts, as the UNDER is 2-1 in those contests.


Best Bet: Indianapolis -3


Cardinals at Vikings (-2 ½, 40) – 1:00 PM EST


Arizona
Record: 4-4-1 SU, 3-6 ATS, 6-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1


The Cardinals are one season removed from an NFC championship appearance as Arizona sits at .500 after nine games. Arizona edged San Francisco last week with a last-second field goal but failed to cover as 13 ½-point home favorites in a 23-20 victory. The Cardinals play five of their final seven games away from University of Phoenix Stadium as Arizona owns a 1-2 SU/ATS road mark with that lone win over the woeful 49ers. Arizona has dropped eight straight road matchups with Minnesota, while making its first trip to the Twin Cities since a 21-14 loss back in 2012.


Minnesota
Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 6-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 35/1


The Vikings were in the discussion of receiving home-field advantage after a 5-0 start. However, Minnesota may be left out of the playoffs if it doesn’t get on track and snap its current four-game losing streak. The latest tumble by Minnesota happened in Washington last Sunday as the Vikings fell short in a 26-20 defeat to the Vikings. During this four-game skid, Minnesota has averaged 14 points per game, while losing three times in the favorite role. The Vikings are laying points this week as Minnesota has compiled an 8-2 ATS record as a home favorite since the start of the 2015 season.


Best Bet: Minnesota -2 ½


Bills at Bengals (-2 ½, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


Buffalo
Record: 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS, 7-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1


Which Bills team will show up this week in Cincinnati? The one that won four straight games, including a shutout of the Patriots or the one that has lost three in a row? Buffalo has scored exactly 25 points in three consecutive contests (which is nearly impossible to do), but has allowed at least four touchdowns in each of those losses to Miami, New England, and Seattle. The Bills are in the midst of a five-game OVER streak, including three straight OVERS away from Buffalo.


Cincinnati
Record: 3-5-1 SU, 3-6 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 65/1


Amazingly, the Bengals still have a shot at winning the AFC North title in spite of going 1-3-1 in the last five games. Cincinnati hosts Pittsburgh and Baltimore in December, while traveling to Cleveland in three weeks. The Bengals were tripped up on Monday night by the Giants, 21-20 as Cincinnati has been held to fewer than 20 points in all five losses this season. Cincinnati owns a 2-1 SU/ATS mark at Paul Brown Stadium, while winning eight of its past 11 times in the role of a home favorite since 2015.


Best Bet: Cincinnati -2 ½


Ravens at Cowboys (-7 ½, 45) – 1:00 PM EST


Baltimore
Record: 5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-3-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 35/1


The Ravens have rebounded from a four-game skid to win back-to-back home divisional games against Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Baltimore has allowed 20 points or less in all five wins this season, while looking to go above .500 on the highway after losing its past two road contests to the Giants and Jets. The Ravens have lost five of their past six games against NFC foes, including an 0-2 SU/ATS mark this season in interconference action. Baltimore has never lost to Dallas in four lifetime matchups, including a 33-24 triumph to close out Cowboys Stadium in 2008.


Dallas
Record: 8-1 SU, 8-1 ATS, 5-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1


The Cowboys will continue to keep rolling with rookie Dak Prescott at quarterback after Dallas edged Pittsburgh, 35-30 to win and cover its eighth consecutive game. Fellow rookie star Ezekiel Elliott busted the 100-yard mark for the fifth time in the last seven games with 114 yards, including the game-winning 32-yard touchdown scamper in the final seconds. Dallas has not been favored by more than 6 ½ points at home this season, but the Cowboys have cashed in three straight home games since losing the opener to the Giants. There has not been a look-ahead factor for Dallas prior to its annual Thanksgiving matchup, as the Cowboys have won 11 consecutive years in the final game before Turkey Day (6-5 ATS).


Best Bet: Baltimore +7 ½


Dolphins (-1 ½) at Rams – 4:05 PM EST


Miami
Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 6-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1


The Dolphins remained out west following its 31-24 comeback victory over the Chargers last Sunday to win their fourth straight game. Miami topped the 27-point mark for the fourth consecutive week as the Dolphins haven’t won a game this season when scoring 24 points or less. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill hasn’t thrown an interception in the last four games, even though he hasn’t eclipsed the 260-yard mark passing. The Dolphins are listed as a road favorite for the first time since Week 2 of last season in a 23-20 defeat at Jacksonville as six-point chalk.


Los Angeles
Record: 4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS, 6-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1


The Rams finally pulled the plug on quarterback Case Keenum and are turning to top pick Jared Goff to revive an offense that ranks last in the league in points per game at 15.4. Los Angeles is coming off its second win this season in which they didn’t reach the end zone, knocking off the Jets, 9-6 as one-point favorites. The Rams are looking for their first home victory since Week 2 against Seattle, as Los Angeles has scored 10 points or less in five games this season.


Best Bet: Los Angeles +1 ½


Eagles at Seahawks (-6 ½, 50) – 4:25 PM EST


Philadelphia
Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 75/1


The Eagles have had their share of problems on the road this season by losing four of five games away from Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia climbed above the .500 mark in last Sunday’s 24-15 home victory over Atlanta, but remains three games behind Dallas in the NFC East. In their past two road losses, the Eagles have lost by six points to the Cowboys and five points to the Giants, while not dropping a game by more than a touchdown this season.


Seattle
Record: 6-2-1 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1


The Seahawks’ offense is kicking into high gear by scoring 31 points in each of their last two victories against the Bills and Patriots. Seattle picked up a morsel of revenge for its Super Bowl loss two years ago against New England by holding off the Patriots, 31-24 as 7 ½-point underdogs. Russell Wilson put together his best game of the season by throwing for 348 yards and three touchdowns, while picking up its second cover as an underdog this season. Seattle has won all four games at CenturyLink Field, but the Seahawks are 2-2 ATS at home.


Best Bet: Philadelphia +6 ½
 

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