Cnotes 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 11
November 18, 2016


Week 10 Recap


Total bettors saw a stalemate in last week’s 14-game slate (7-7) and a couple of contests had some fortunate or unfortunate endings. The Chargers led the Dolphins 10-7 at halftime and ‘under’ bettors (49) were confident with that score but turnovers and big plays contributed to 38 points in the final 30 minutes.


Another game that turned at halftime was the Arizona-San Francisco matchup. The Cardinals led 20-10 at the break and the ‘over’ (47) was on a great pace. Sure enough, the worst defense in the league stifled the Cardinals to three points in the second half and the game stayed ‘under’ the number as the pair combined for six field goals. Through 10 weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ holds the edge with a 79-67-1 (54%) record.


Keep an Eye On!


-- The Bears have scored 20 or more points once this season but the Giants have allowed 21.6 points per game at home this season.


-- Arizona has watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 this season but all three ‘over’ winners took place on the road.


-- Including last week’s ‘over’ result versus Pittsburgh, the Cowboys have seen the ‘under’ go 8-2 in their last 10 games against AFC opponents.


-- Something has to give on the total between Kansas City (Under 7-2) and Tampa Bay (Over 6-3) when they meet at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.


-- Detroit has seen the ‘under’ go 4-0 the last four years in the previous game before their annual Thanksgiving Day battle. The offense averaged 17 PPG during this span, which has resulted in a 1-3 SU record.


Divisional Action


Tennessee at Indianapolis: The Colts outlasted the Titans 34-26 on the road in Week 7 and the ’over’ (48 ½) connected with a big fourth quarter surge (27 points). Bettors are starting at a total of 53 for the rematch and while that number seems inflated, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ based on recent form. Tennessee has seen the ‘over’ cash in seven straight games and it’s averaging 31.7 PPG during this span. Indianapolis has allowed 28.4 PPG this season, which is ranked 29th in the league. The Colts have seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 on the season and they’ve also leaned heavily to high side in their last 10 games off the bye (7-3). Including the first meeting this season, the ‘over’ has cashed in four of the last five between the pair. Lastly, every AFC South divisional matchup (6-0) has gone ‘over’ this season.


Pittsburgh at Cleveland: This series has watched the ‘under’ cash in three straight and eight of the last 10 meetings. Despite being for offensive fireworks, Pittsburgh has watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 this season and that includes a 3-1 mark on the road. Cleveland has watched the ‘under’ cash the last two weeks, largely due to its offensive struggles. The Browns weak defense (419 YPG) makes you believe Pittsburgh can put up a crooked number and you can certainly argue that the Cleveland offense can overachieve against a weak Steelers defense (380 YPG). However, some bettors have already bet into the ‘under’ and knocked the total from 49 ½ down to 45 as of Friday evening. Why? The latest weather reports are predicting a 40% chance of snow showers and wind gusts up 30 MPH, the latter being the bigger factor.


Headed West


Week 11 will featured three East Coast clubs playing in the Pacific Time Zone on Sunday. Including last week’s outcome between the Dolphins and Chargers, the ‘over’ has gone 6-4 in these matchups. Three of the ‘under’ winners came from Arizona, who is a perfect 6-0 to the ‘under’ at home this season.


Coincidentally, all three of these totals have been knocked down and two of them due to possible poor weather, which was talked about in-depth in the weekly Vegas Money Moves piece.

Miami at Los Angeles: The Dolphins stayed on the West Coast this week as they look to pull off the California sweep after defeating San Diego last Sunday. The Rams defense (327 YPG) is a big step up in class for Miami, who could have two starters out on the offensive line. Los Angeles has the worst scoring offense (15.4 PPG) in the league and it would be surprising if rookie QB Jared Goff can improve on that number in his first NFL start.


New England at San Francisco: Even though rain is expected in the forecast for this matchup, can San Francisco really slow down New England? The Patriots were held to 24 last week but they’re still averaging 32 PPG since QB Tom Brady returned. San Francisco’s defense had it second-best performance of the season last week and still allowed 23 in a loss at Arizona. Knowing the Patriots visit the Jets next week and they’re coming off a tough loss to Seattle, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get in and get out of this game healthy. Also, New England won’t have offensive weapons TE Rob Gronkowski or WR Chris Hogan available for Sunday.


Philadelphia at Seattle: This total has dropped from 46 to 43 due to the aforementioned weather reports. The ‘Hawks have put up 31 points in each of their last two games and the offense has played better at home. Philadelphia’s defense has been great at home (9.5 PPG) but very shaky on the road (24.4 PPG). Seattle has watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 at CenturyLink Field and the Eagles have gone 4-0-1 to the ‘over’ as visitors.


Under the Lights


The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the primetime games last week and of the three nights, Monday continues to be the best lean for the low side with a 7-3-1 record. Including this past Thursday’s result between Carolina and New Orleans, the ‘under’ as gone 17-14-1 this season.

Green Bay at Washington: This total is hovering between 49 and 50 points at most books and all signs on paper point to the high side. The Redskins have seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 overall and that includes a 5-0 mark at FedEx Field. Green Bay enters this game on a 3-0 ‘over’ run and its surrendered 33, 31 and 47 points during this span. The Packers beat the Redskins 35-18 in the first round of the playoffs last year at D.C. and the ‘over’ (47 ½) was never in doubt. If you’re looking for an ‘under’ angle, the Green Bay defense is expected to be healthier this week and the Packers have seen the ‘under’ go 2-0 in their first two games versus NFC East foes this season.


Houston vs. Oakland (from Mexico City): Based on the total (46) and the tendencies we’ve seen from Houston, the number tells me that this game will play to the tempo of the Texans. Houston scored a season-high on the road last week when it beat Jacksonville 24-21 but seven of those points came from the defense. So with that effort, the offense has only scored 39 points in four games outside of Houston this season. We can’t dismiss the fact that Oakland has been a great ‘over’ team (7-2) based on a solid offense and weak defense. However, I believe the venue will play a factor and the high altitude (7,350 ft) could have both teams gassed in the second-half. For what it’s worth, Houston scored nine points at Mile High (Denver - 5,280 ft) in Week 7 and Oakland put up 15 and 14 in its last two trips to Colorado.


Fearless Predictions


I caught some luck last week as the Denver team total slid ‘over’ with a two-point conversion from its defense. That win made up for the dismal performance by Arizona in the second-half. After the dust settled, we turned a small profit ($190) and cut into the overall bankroll ($50). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Best Over: Tennessee-Indianapolis 52 ½


Best Under: Baltimore-Dallas 45


Best Team Total: Under Detroit 26 ½


Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under 53 ½ Baltimore-Dallas
Under 55 Houston-Oakland
Over 33 ½ Philadelphia-Seattle

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 11
November 19, 2016


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Eagles are 10-0 ATS (13.10 ppg) since Dec 18, 2005 as a dog and on turf after they had more than 150 rushing yards last game.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Buccaneers are 0-10 ATS (-12.15 ppg) since Dec 07, 2014 as a dog and after a game in which no receiver had at least 40% of their passing yards.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:


-- The Bengals are 9-0-1 ATS (8.55 ppg) since Dec 30, 2012 at home when AJ Green had at least seven receptions last game.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Redskins are 0-11 OU (-6.68 ppg) since Sep 16, 2002 at home after a home game where they allowed less than 80 rushing yards.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Bears are 11-0 OU (10.68 ppg) since Dec 25, 2011 off a game as a favorite where they gained less than 300 total yards.


NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Seahawks are 0-11 OU as a home favorite off a game as a road dog in which they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards.

 

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 11
November 19, 2016


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.


Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.


The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.


This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.


Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9


Week 10


Week 11


1) Baltimore +7 (596)
2) Miami -2.5 (516)
3) Tennessee +3 (509)
4) Minnesota PK (499)
5) Tampa Bay +7.5 (434)


SUPERCONTEST WEEK 11 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
New Orleans (+3.5) 155 Carolina (-3.5) 74
Tennessee (+3) 509 Indianapolis (-3) 280
Jacksonville (+6.5) 330 Detroit (-6.5) 282
Tampa Bay (+7.5) 434 Kansas City (-7.5) 131
Chicago (+7.5) 283 N.Y. Giants (-7.5) 227
Arizona (PK) 333 Minnesota (PK) 499
Buffalo (+2.5) 394 Cincinnati (-2.5) 292
Baltimore (+7) 596 Dallas (-7) 315
Pittsburgh (-8) 392 Cleveland (+8) 172
Miami (-2.5) 516 Los Angeles (+2.5) 331
New England (-13) 277 San Francisco (+13) 187
Philadelphia (+6.5) 300 Seattle (-6.5) 412
Green Bay (+2.5) 363 Washington (-2.5) 405
Houston (+5.5) 201 Oakland (-5.5) 430


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 6-14 30%
6 1-3-1 5-19-1 21%
7 3-2 8-21-1 28%
8 3-2 11-23-1 32%
9 2-3 13-26-1 33%
10 0-5 13-31-1 29%

 

[CNOTES]

SNF - Packers at Redskins
November 19, 2016


Green Bay (4-5 straight up, 4-4-1 against the spread) has lost three straight and four of its last five and will have the tall task of getting back on track at FedEx Field Sunday night against Washington (5-3-1 SU, 6-3 ATS), who have lost only once (5-1-1) in its last seven games.


As each teams power rating go in different directions, the Packers find themselves as underdogs for just the second time this season as Washington is -3 (EV) with a total set at 50.


There was some comfort with Packers nation that when wide receiver Jordy Nelson returned this season that the offense would get back to dominating, but Nelson still doesn't appear to be fully recovered as far as speed goes. He's not blowing by defenders as we've all been accustomed to despite leading the team with 50 recptions, 635 yards and 8 touchdowns.


The real problem has been the running game, or lack of it. Coverage has been easier for teams facing Green Bay because they don't have to respect the run. Running back Eddie Lacy (ankle) hasn't played since Week 6 and he's still the teams leading rusher (360 yards). The active leading rusher is quarterback Aaron Rodgers (226 yards) and his three rushing TDs are the only Packers TDs on the ground all season. This is Week 11, that is horrendous, and a huge part of their demise.


Green Bay claimed RB Christine Michael off waivers earlier in the week after he was cut in Seattle, which could help down the road. But a player that has been dumped three separate times between two teams shouldn't be considered the savior. Still, he should be better than the alternative of Ty Montgomery and and James Starks.


The biggest boost this week will be the return of LB Clay Matthews who has missed the Packers 1-4 run the past five weeks with a hamstring injury. Statistically, the Packers defense hasn't been that bad. They allow only 84.4 yards per game on the ground (No. 4) and 339 YPG overall (No. 10). They have a respectable 23 sacks, but have created only 10 turnovers. Matthews should add a little extra spice of intensity for the defense.


The most encouraging note for the Packers (4-5) is that no one is running away with the NFC North as the Lions and Vikings each sit at 5-4. They can regroup, make a run, and still win the division. But they better start their move fast.


As for the Redskins (5-3-1), they sit third in the NFC East behind Dallas (8-1) and the Giants (6-3), but they've got something special going on with an offense that averages 407 YPG (No. 4), which is the highest average in team history. They've had only nine 3-and-out offensive series this season, the least in the league, as is their 25 total punts.


After missing last week, WR DeSean Jackson (head contusion) has been upgraded to 'probable,' which is great news for the offense. The injury to watch is with long snapper Nick Sundberg (back) who is still 'questionable' for Sunday. If he is unable to play, QB Colt McCoy would take over the duties which should be interesting to watch on special teams.


LINE MOVEMENT


The South Point in Las Vegas opened Washington -2.5 and it was quickly bet up to -3 on Monday until +3-flat was attractive and bet on Thursday. The only book in town that uses flat numbers is still sitting at -2.5, which is kind of telling. No respected money is laying -2.5 enough to force them back to -3, the most key number in the NFL.

OVER THE WORD IN D.C.


All five of the Redskins home games have gone 'over' the total with an average score of 24.6 to 25. Overall, they've gone 'over' in seven of nine games this season and 16-5 to the 'over' in their last 21.


RECENT MEETINGS


These two teams met in last year's Wild Card playoff game last season at Landover with Washington (-2) jumping out to an 11-0 lead early in the second quarter, but then Green Bay would go to to outscore them 35-7 the rest of the way for a 35-18 win, which went 'over' the total of 47.


The previous meetings was in 2013 with Green Bay (-9) winning 38-20 at Lambeau Field and going 'over' the total of 48.5 points.


SNF PROPS (WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPERBOOK)


-- Total completions by Aaron Rodgers: 26.5
-- Total TD passes by Aaron Rodgers: 2
-- Total receiving yards by Jordan Nelson: 80.5


-- Gross passing yards by Kirk Cousins: 292.5
-- Total TD passes by Kirk Cousins: 1.5 OV -175
-- Total receiving yards by Jordan Reed 65.5
-- Total sacks by both teams: 4.5 UN -120


NEXT WEEK


The Westgate posted Week 12 early lines with the Redskins getting +6.5 at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day and the Packers catching three points at Philadelphia for the Monday night matchup.

 

[mickj]

Thursday's Top Action
November 15, 2016


NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
New Orleans Saints (4-5 SU; 6-3 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (3-6 SU; 2-6 ATS)


Sportsbook.ag Odds: Carolina (-3); Total set at 52.5


Week 11 of the NFL season gets going with a NFC South showdown between two teams that are watching their seasons teeter on the brink of elimination. It's not quite panic time in New Orleans or Carolina with six games remaining after this one, but the loser of this contest is likely going to have too much ground to make up in the NFC to remotely consider a run at the playoffs. The stakes are getting higher and higher each week in the NFL and it will be interesting to see which team comes out ahead in this one.


New Orleans took the first meeting between these two by a 41-38 score a little over a month ago as they won it with a FG with 11 seconds remaining in the game. These two teams traded big plays and points with one another all afternoon, and it was the second straight meeting that ended with a score of 41-38.


In fact, three of the last four meetings between these two teams have seen the winner put up 41 points so it's no surprise to see a total of 52.5 get posted for this game.


Yet, while many believe - and for many good reasons statistically – that we will have another shootout between these rivals, I'm not so sure that will be the case. Yes, both teams are statistically poor on defense and the strength on both sides is the ability to put up points in a flurry, but the stakes are much higher in this matchup then they were a month ago and we should see these defenses step up a bit.


For one, the Saints defense appears to be playing a little better at the same time their offense has been stalling. Three of the last four Saints games have cashed 'under' tickets, and the only 'over' in that span came on the road in a blowout win over San Francisco where it was clear New Orleans let up in the second half. New Orleans is also on a 0-3-1 O/U run in their last four appearances on TNF and have a 2-5 O/U run going on the road.


Meanwhile, as the Panthers try to climb out of this hole they dug for themselves this year, it's been the defense that has been carrying the weight. They held Kansas City to 3 points in the first half last week before multiple turnovers by Carolina's offense put them in bad shape numerous times and cost them the game.


The week before that they held the Rams to just 10 points, and while no one is comparing those offenses to what the Saints bring to the table, the Panthers defense should rise up to the challenge again this week.


We also can't ignore the complete ineptitude the Panthers offense has shown the past two weeks. Cam Newton and company were shut out in the second half against KC, and the fact that they only managed 13 points – with only two FG's in the second half of that Rams game is a huge cause for concern.


Carolina realized in that first meeting with New Orleans that their chances for success decrease greatly when the game turns into a shootout and at 3-6 SU, it is the Panthers who definitely have more on the line this week.


Best Bet: Under 52.5 points

This steered me to under, thank you!

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Sunday, November 20


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Underdogs: Week 11 pointspread picks and predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Titans QB Marcus Mariota is completing 69.5 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions, to go along with a crazy good 122.1 passer rating.


I turned 30 this week.


I suppose that means I should start to realize that my dream of making the NBA as the second coming of Steve Nash is finally dead.


Seriously though, turning 30 years old didn’t really bother me the way I had seen it affect others. Maybe that has something to with the fact I was thrown a killer surprise party by my girlfriend, complete with oyster shucking and martini bar.


Or maybe, it’s because I got a great birthday present from the gambling gods, with my underdog picks going 3-0 SU and ATS on my big Three-Ohhh.


Considering dogs went 8-5 SU and 9-4 ATS last week, I would have felt pretty terrible if I couldn’t nail down at least three of them. So, kind of like a surprise party you had a feeling was coming, while not completely unexpected, the results are more than welcome.


Not as surprising, is how bad the AFC South has been this season.


The Tennessee Titans, at 5-5, are still in contention for the division title and sit in second place behind the 6-3 Houston Texans. They face a critical road game at 4-5 Indianapolis, one the Titans need to win if they want to keep pace.


Tennessee has won four of its last six games thanks to two things: running the football and the meteoric rise of second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota.


While it should be noted one of those losses was a 34-26 defeat as 4-point home favorites at the hands of the Colts, Mariota has been tremendous during that six-game stretch. He's completing 69.5 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions, to go along with a crazy good 122.1 passer rating.


Meanwhile, DeMarco Murray is enjoying Music City, giving the Titans the league’s third-best rush offense at 145.2 yards per game. He should continue to roll this week, matching up against a Colts rush defense that gives up 114.9 yards per game.


Let’s not forget the Titans rank fifth in the NFL in sacks with 26 and go against a brutal Colts offense line that has left Andrew Luck battered, allowing a NFL worst 33 sacks this season.


I think the Titans continue to surprise this week. Try to look shocked when they cover.


Pick: Titans +3




Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) at Minnesota Vikings


These teams are mirror images of each other and not in a good way. Both were considered NFC contenders, have top-ranked defenses, and are currently struggling.


After starting the season a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS, the Vikings have dropped four in a row both SU and ATS, scoring just 14 points per game in the process.


They rank dead last in total offense and rushing yards, which seems insane when we are talking about the Vikings, but that’s what happens when you lose several offense lineman to injury. Oh, and that Adrian Peterson guy is missed pretty sorely right about now.


Meanwhile, although Arizona is coming off a win, it was an uninspiring 23-20 home victory over a San Francisco squad that was a 13.5-point dog and is just 1-1-1 SU and 0-3 ATS in the last three games.


So while this appears to be an even matchup in the futility department, I have a little more faith in the Cardinals, mainly because their problems seem fixable.


Arizona’s big issue this season has been turnovers. The Cardinals rank seventh in total offense, but 20th in points per game at 22.4. With all other things being equal, the Cardinals have the much better offense and if they can hold on to the ball, they not only cover but win outright.

Pick: Cardinals +2.5




Green Bay Packers (+3) at Washington


Talk about not seeing it coming. The Green Bay Packers' struggles could be the stunner of the season so far.


Aaron Rodgers doesn’t look like the quarterback we all know, there's been a revolving door of running backs in Green Bay, and the Packers have lost three in row, allowing 37 points per game in that stretch. They're going up against the fourth-ranked offense in the NFL Sunday night. Did I mention they head into Washington, which has revenge on its mind after the Packers knocked the Redskins out of the playoffs last season? No. Well, there's that too.


Yet I still like the Packers. Surprise!


This is mostly a “can they actually be that bad?” play, plus I think Rodgers wants to show everyone he’s still got it on national television.


Pick: Packers +3




Last Week: 3-0 ATS
Season: 18-11-1 ATS (62%)

 

[CNOTES]

Essential Week 11 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday


The Seahawks have been bet from the opening number of -4.5 to the current number of -6.5 for Sunday's NFC showdown with the Eagles.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (7.5, 44.5)


* A date with Cleveland couldn't come at a better time for reeling Pittsburgh, which also has lost three in a row on the road and plays four of its next five away from home. While Ben Roethlisberger and the offense managed to get untracked in last week's 35-30 home loss, the defense permitted the Cowboys to put together a pair of late 75-yard touchdown drives. Frustrated by his team's inability to stop the opposition, coach Mike Tomlin is taking what appears to be a desperate measure by moving veteran linebacker James Harrison into the starting lineup. Harrison was the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year in 2008, but he's now 38 years old, already has come out of retirement once and has made only 19 tackles on the season.


* For a team that has featured an NFL-high 26 different starting quarterbacks since 1999, it hardly comes as a surprise that first-year coach Hue Jackson has had a revolving door under center. Jackson made a surprise move last week, pulling rookie Cody Kessler in the third quarter in favor of veteran Josh McCown with the Browns trailing by six points, but he is turning back to third-round pick Kessler to face Pittsburgh. "I came here ... to solve this quarterback issue that's been here," Jackson told reporters Thursday. "Is the guy on our roster now? We're going to find that out." Jackson also needs to solve major issues on his defense, which is yielding 30.1 points and 419.1 yards -- ranking 31st in each category.


LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened this AFC North battle as 9-point road favorites and that number has dropped to 7.5. The total opened at 49.5 and as of Saturday morning has been bet down 5 points to 44.5. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Steelers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in November.
* Under is 7-1 in Steelers last 8 road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Browns last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.


Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 45)


* Baltimore's top-ranked run defense will take aim at rookie Ezekiel Elliott and Dallas' offensive line after holding the Steelers (36 yards on 18 carries) and Browns (33 on 13) to 2.2 yards per carry. Quarterback Joe Flacco is taking more chances down the field under new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg and averaged 7.56 yards per attempt in the last two games while throwing four touchdown passes. Receiver Breshad Perriman helped in the deep passing game by recording 64 yards on three catches, including a 27-yard TD, against Cleveland.


* Elliott leads the NFL with 1,005 rushing yards and piled up 114 and two TDs on the ground while adding 95 receiving yards and another score in last week's win. The Ohio State product already went up against three of the top 11 run defenses in the league (Green Bay, New York Giants and Chicago) and totaled 348 rushing yards in those contests. Prescott is playing mistake-free football with 14 TD passes and two interceptions but is not being overly conservative while averaging 8.35 yards per attempt.


LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened the game between divisional leaders as 7-point home favorites and the total at 45. Bettors appear to be happy with both numbers as neither number has moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 6-1 in Ravens last 7 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Ravens last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 47.5)


* T.J.Yeldon leads the rushing game with a paltry 285 yards on 79 carries and has combined with newcomer Chris Ivory for just two rushing scores on the season. Bortles, who broke franchise records with over 4,400 yards and 35 touchdowns last season, threw a pick-six on the opening drive of the Jags' 24-21 loss to Houston last week, the third time this season he's thrown an interception on Jacksonville's first possession. Look for defensive back Jalen Ramsey, who has become a clear favorite in the race for defensive rookie of the year while shutting down a litany of star receivers throughout his first season, to shadow Detroit's Marvin Jones.


* Stafford, completing 67.3 percent of his passes on the season, continues to be one of the league's best at directing come-from-behind wins -- all five of Detroit's victories have been the result of game-deciding drives by Stafford. Since 2011, Stafford has 23 game-winning drives in the fourth quarter and he reportedly is looking to parlay that success into a $25 million deal at year's end. The Lions have been fairly stingy on defense, allowing 22.9 points a game, (14th in league). Top linebacker DeAndre Levy, who has battled several leg injuries, was back at practice but he is still listed as doubtful to make his first return since Week 1.


LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened the week as 6.5-point home favorites and were briefly faded down to 6 mid-week before rising back to 6.5. The total opened at 47 and has inched up half point late in the week to 47.5. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
* Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.


Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 52.5)


* The maturation of second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota - who has benefited from the addition of running back DeMarco Murray -has been the story for Tennessee’s flourishing offense. Mariota has passed for 21 touchdowns against eight interceptions, and he and Murray head the league’s third-ranked rushing attack. The Titans have struggled to stop the pass recently, allowing 300 or more yards through the air in four of the last five games - including a season-high 341 in a 34-26 loss to the Colts in Week 7.


* Indianapolis has reasonable balance on offense, with running back Frank Gore putting together a decent season and Andrew Luck throwing far fewer interceptions than a year ago. The Colts have had difficulty keeping Luck upright, however, as he has been sacked 33 times - a concern against a Titans team with 28 sacks to its credit. Indianapolis’ downfall has been its defense, which ranks 31st against the pass and 22nd versus the run while forcing only eight turnovers - fifth-fewest in the league.


LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened the week as 3-point home favorites against their divisional rival and that number held before fading half point to 2.5 Friday afternoon. The total opened at 53 and quickly dropped to 52 Sunday evening and held most of the week before returning to 53 Friday. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
* Over is 7-0-1 in Titans last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
* Titans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 meetings.


Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 47)


* Tyrod Taylor leads all NFL quarterbacks with 362 yards on the ground and is the only signal-caller with at least 4,500 yards passing (4,804) and 900 rushing (930) since the start of 2015. Linebacker Lorenzo Alexander is tied for the league lead with 10 sacks while wide receiver Marquise Goodwin ranks fifth with an average of 18.8 yards per catch. The Bills are 16-11 in games following their bye week, but Rex Ryan is just 2-6 in such contests during his career as a head coach.


* Linebacker Rey Maualuga (fibula) also was a full participant in practice on Thursday after missing Monday's loss to the New York Giants. A run specialist, he would be a welcome addition to the lineup on Sunday as Buffalo ranks second in the league in rushing offense (155 yards). Jeremy Hill has scored three touchdowns on the ground in as many games and ranks second in the league since 2014 with 26 rushing scores.


LINE HISTORY: The Bengals opened up as 3-point home favorites and that was quickly bet down half point to 2.5 and that number has held firm since Monday. The total opened at 47 and remained there all week. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
* Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.
* Bengals are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 4-1 in Bills last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 44.5)


* Tampa Bay scored a season-high 36 points against the Bears thanks to four takeaways – a common theme in the team’s success. The Buccaneers have forced 11 turnovers in their four wins and just four in their five defeats. The running game has been practically non-existent in the last two games, and quarterback Jameis Winston could use some help on the ground against a tough pass rush and secondary.


* The Chiefs’ offense has foundered over the last two weeks, but the defense has made up for it by continuing to force turnovers as an impressive rate. Kansas City leads the league with 22 takeaways, including at least two in each of its five straight wins. Smith rarely puts up flashy numbers, but he continues to get the job done as he has recorded eight touchdown passes against three interceptions, while Spencer Ware has been effective both running the ball and catching it out of the backfield.


LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened the week as 7.5-point home favorites and that number has remained all week. The total opened at 44.5 and like the spread remains fine the bettors and hasn’t moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
* Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
* Over is 8-2 in Buccaneers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.


Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 40)


* David Johnson was limited to 55 yards on 19 carries last week but gained 46 on five receptions to become the first player since Indianapolis' Edgerrin James in 2005 to record 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his team's first nine games. The product of Northern Iowa ranks second in the league with 1,213 scrimmage yards and is one of three players in NFL history (Gale Sayers and Abner Haynes) to record 15 rushing touchdowns, five receiving scores and a kickoff-return TD in his first two seasons. Carson Palmer, who has eclipsed 300 passing yards in three straight contests, has thrown for seven touchdowns with just one interception in four career games against Minnesota.


* Sam Bradford has excelled at home this season, throwing six touchdown passes without an interception while posting a 111.3 rating in four games. The Vikings changed kickers this week, releasing Blair Walsh and signing Kai Forbath, who split last season between Washington and New Orleans. Stefon Diggs had 13 receptions for 164 yards against the Redskins after making 13 catches for 80 yards versus Detroit in Week 9, becoming the first player in NFL history with at least 13 catches in consecutive games.


LINE HISTORY: The line opened as a PK, the bettors have spoken and as of Saturday morning the Vikings are 2.5-point favorites at home. The total opened at 41.5 and has been faded all the way to 40. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Vikings are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 12-3-1 in Cardinals last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 9-1 in Vikings last 10 games following a ATS loss.
* Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.


Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-7.5, 43)


* Chicago's difficult season got even worse this week after wideout Alshon Jeffery was suspended four games for performance-enhancing drugs, with Cutler likely turning to tight end Zach Miller (team-leading 44 receptions) as the focus of the passing game. Jordan Howard recorded his fourth 100-yard rushing performance on Sunday, one shy of the franchise record for a rookie (Beattie Feathers in 1934, Rashaan Salaam in 1995). Linebacker Pernell McPhee promised to get Manning dirty as the Bears are eighth in the league with sacks (24) while the Giants' quarterback has only been dropped 12 times in 350 passing attempts. "I don't care what everybody else did. We (are) gonna sack him. ... I'm gonna make sure of that," McPhee said.


* The dust barely settled after New York eked out a 21-20 victory over Cincinnati on Monday when Beckham boasted greater heights for his ascending team. "We're really looking forward to Feb. 5 in Houston,” said Beckham, who has been feeling good with six touchdowns in his last five games after being held out of the end zone in his previous four. "That's the goal, obviously. I probably said that the past two or three years since I’ve been in the league. I feel real confident in this team." Veteran Rashad Jennings ran for 87 of his team's 122 yards to help New York's 31st-ranked rushing attack get untracked on Monday, but Chicago's defense (11th-ranked) should provide a tougher test.


LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened as 7.5-point home favorites and has remained there all week. The total opened at 45.5 and has been inching down all week to the current number of 43. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.


Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (2, 39.5)


* Much-maligned quarterback Ryan Tannehill has not recorded a single turnover during Miami's winning streak after committing nine (seven interceptions, two fumbles) in the first five games. "I think that's the biggest thing for us right (now), is taking care of the football (and) not giving the other team opportunities with good field position and keeping ourselves in the right spot," Tannehill said of the Dolphins, who are plus-8 in turnovers during the winning streak. Tailback Jay Ajayi has rushed for 608 yards and four touchdowns during that stretch, but saw his string of 100-yard performances stopped at three after being limited to just 79 versus San Diego.


* One man's opportunity led to another's misery as Keenam approached the podium on Wednesday with a frown and told reporters he "wasn't happy" with coach Jeff Fisher's decision. With the team's passing game stuck in neutral, running back Todd Gurley has faced stacked boxes and is mustering a disappointing 3.1 yards per carry. The second-year back failed to reach the end zone for the seventh time in nine games during Los Angeles' 9-6 victory over the Jets on Sunday and faces a Miami team that has limited New York and San Diego to 100 yards on 33 carries over the last six quarters.


LINE HISTORY: The line opened as a PK, quickly to the Rams as 1-point home favorite and bettors quickly jumped all over the road team bumping that line to Dolphins +2. The total opened at 40.5 and has been bet down a full point to 39.5 Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Rams are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (11, 51)


* Even if Gronkowski is able to play, which appears increasingly unlikely, Brady still has the luxury of throwing to backup tight end Martellus Bennett, who made seven catches for 102 yards against Seattle. “Look, I’ve started the majority of my career," Bennett, who has three 100-yard performances this season, told reporters. "Starting in a football game is just football. It doesn’t matter how I play or when I play. It’s just the same thing.” New England also will feature a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for 69 yards and three touchdowns while having over 20 carries for the fifth time this season. The Patriots yield 18.1 points per game despite ranking in the bottom-third in sacks, forced fumbles and interceptions.


* San Francisco showed some moxie in ending a string of four straight blowouts by erasing an early 14-point deficit and clawing back from 10 down in the second half against Arizona. Carlos Hyde, who rushed for six touchdowns in the first five games, returned to the lineup after missing two contests with a shoulder injury but was limited to 14 yards on 13 carries. Colin Kaepernick has rushed for as least 55 yards in three of his four outings since replacing Blaine Gabbert as the starter, but he could be without deep threat Torrey Smith (shoulder), who was limited in practice Thursday. The 49ers rank last in the NFL in total yards (429.7) and rushing yards (180.4) allowed.


LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as massive 13.5-point road favorites and the line has steadily been fading to the current number of 11. The total opened at 51.5 and dropped as low as 50.5 before settling at 51. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.
* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 road games.
* Under is 8-1 in 49ers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 42.5)


* The Philadelphia backfield is a confusing one to label, yet both veteran Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews are making their mark in distinctly different ways. Sproles remains a threat in the passing game with eight receptions last week and Mathews rushed for a season-high 109 yards and scored twice to increase his touchdown total to four in his last three contests. Jordan Matthews, who is nursing back spasms, has been the lone consistent Eagles wideout with 23 catches for 216 yards in his last three games.


* With Thomas Rawls (fibula) expected to return on Sunday and rookie C.J. Prosise turning heads by recording a career-high 153 yards from scrimmage (66 rushing, 87 receiving) versus the Patriots, Seattle opted to end Christine Michael's second stint with the club by waiving him this week. Prosise's dominating performance notwithstanding, the Seahawks are expected to ease back Rawls into the system despite the team being on pace for a franchise low for yards in a 16-game season. "We've got to get him back first. Let's get him back, get him going, make sure he's ready to roll and all that, and we'll figure that out," coach Pete Carroll said. "If he makes it through the week, he's going to play considerably because he’s in great shape and he's ready to do that. But we're not going to overplay him or try to take it too far too soon."


LINE HISTORY: The line opened with Seattle as 6-point home favorites and that line was quickly bet up to 6.5 and has remained there all week. The total opened at 45.5 and has been fading all week to the current number of 43. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS:


* Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Over is 11-2 in Eagles last 13 vs. NFC.
* Over is 8-2 in Seahawks last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 20


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


ARI at MIN 01:00 PM


MIN -2.5

U 40.0 *****


PIT at CLE 01:00 PM


PIT -8.5 *****


U 44.0


JAC at DET 01:00 PM


JAC +6.0


O 47.0 *****


BUF at CIN 01:00 PM


CIN -2.5


O 47.5 *****


BAL at DAL 01:00 PM


BAL +7.0


U 44.5 *****


CHI at NYG 01:00 PM


CHI +7.0


U 41.5


TEN at IND 01:00 PM

IND -3.0 *****


O 53.0


TB at KC 01:00 PM

KC -7.0 *****


O 45.0 *****


MIA at LA 04:05 PM


LA -1.0 *****


U 39.0 *****


PHI at SEA 04:25 PM


SEA -6.5


O 43.0 *****


NE at SF 04:25 PM


NE -11.0 *****


O 51.5


GB at WAS 08:30 PM


WAS -3.0 *****


O 48.0 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Monday’s six-pack

Six most popular picks this week in the Westgate Super Contest:


6) Raiders -5.5 (430)


5) Buccaneers +7.5 (434)- W


4) Vikings even (400)- W


3) Titans +3 (509)- L


2) Dolphins -2.5 (516)- W
1) Ravens +7 (596)- L


season record: 20-44-2


Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday


Colts 24, Titans 17— Indy led 21-0 19:35 into game, held on for dear life; they’ve now won 11 in row over the Titans and 24 of last 28. Tennessee lost its last nine visits here. Indy stays within 1.5 games of Texans in AFC South. Colts have now covered 10 of their last 12 post-bye games, eight in row when favored.


Lions 26, Jaguars 19— Detroit has still trailed every game this year in 4th quarter; all ten of their games were decided by 7 or less points- they actually covered this game on a late FG. Jax lost its last five games; in two games since changing OC’s, Jaguars lost by 5-3-7 points, scoring 18 pts/game while turning ball over nine times on 34 possessions.


Buccaneers 19, Chiefs 17— Tampa Bay is 4-1 on road, 1-4 at home; go figure- they converted 11-16 on 3rd down which is huge in a low scoring game. KC had won 18 of previous 21 games, but in their last three games, have scored three offensive TDs on 30 drives, with nine FGAs. Bucs outgained KC by 99 yards.


Giants 22, Bears 16— Chicago led 16-9 at half, never scored again. Big Blue’s seven wins are by total of 27 points; their biggest win was 17-10 over Rams in London, when one of their two TD’s was scored by defense. Only one of ten Giant games was decided by more than 7 points. Chicago lost five of last six games, is 0-6 on road, 1-4 as a road dog, losing away games by 9-14-6-16-26-6 points.


Vikings 30, Cardinals 24— Minnesota had TD on both defense/special teams, now has six such TDs this year; they snap 4-game skid, are 4-1 at home are tied for first with Lions in NFC North. Arizona allowed 28.5 pts/game in losing three of first four road games, with only win at SF; Cardinals turned ball over eight times in last three games, is 0-2-1 this year in games with spread of 3 or less points.


Bills 16, Bengals 12— When Houston Texans were on Hard Knocks in 2015, Bill O’Brien said this to his team: “You’re a part of the most competitive business in the world.” There is such a fine line between winning/losing these games. One play, one bounce of the ball makes all the difference. Bengals are 1-4-1 in last six games and their season is in freefall.


Cowboys 27, Ravens 17— Baltimore had 136 penalty yards, Cowboys 45. Dallas won/covered nine games in row; Cowboys are 4-1 at home, 3-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 14-14-6-7 points, heading into a Thanksgiving game with their rivals from Washington. NFC East teams are now 16-7 vs spread outside their division. Meanwhile Joe Flacco is taking grief from former Ravens; we’re a fickle society.


Steelers 24, Browns 9— Not only is Cleveland terrible (outscored 70-17 in second half of last four games), they haven’t had their bye yet so they’re tired too. Browns are 1-6-1 vs spread in its last eight games; QB kessler got KO’d, so it is McCown’s turn to get pummeled. All five Steeler wins this year are by 8+ points (wins by 22-8-29-18-15 points).


Dolphins 14, Rams 10— On their first 11 drives, Miami ran 42 plays for 92 yards; they were totally inept. Trailing 10-0 with 6:40 left, they won game with drives of 77-75 yards on 15 plays (10.1 yards per play, with penalties added in). Dolphins have now won/covered five games in a row; playoff teams find a way to win, cruddy teams find a way to lose. Miami is only a game out of the Wild Card slot.


Patriots 30, 49ers 17— There were three 4:00 games Sunday; funny thing is, only one of the three were it didn’t rain was the game in Seattle. 49ers are now 6-20 since Jim Harbaugh took off for Michigan; they were 44-19-1 while he was with Niners. Maybe they should’ve kept him.


Seahawks 26, Eagles 15— Wilson looks like his old self (almost); speed of new RB Prosise (was WR in college) makes Seahawk offense lot more dangerous. Seattle is 5-0 at home this year, 2-3 as home favorites, winning at home by 2-19-2-6-11 points. Eagles lost five of last seven games after a 3-0 start; they lost last five road games, allowing 27.7 pts/game.


Redskins 42, Packers 24— Green Bay is in free fall, losing last four games while allowing 153 points, most they’ve allowed in any 4-game stretch since the year before Vince Lombardi came to Green Bay (1958)— Pack lost last four road games, by 3-1-22-18 points; their only road win was in opener at Jacksonville. Redskins are 6-1-1 in last eight games after an 0-2 start (two home losses).


Under is 11-2 in NFL games this weekend. There were 12 extra points missed today; three of them in domes. Kicking is mental.

 

[CNOTES]

MNF - Texans vs. Raiders
November 20, 2016


The Week 11 card wraps up south of the border as the NFL heads to Mexico City, Mexico for a key AFC matchup between the Raiders and Texans. Oakland is listed as the home team in this contest although Houston is closer to Mexico City. The Raiders are fresh off the bye week sitting atop the AFC West, while the Texans are leading the AFC South in spite of inconsistent play at the quarterback position.


LAST WEEK


The Texans (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) finally won their first road game following an 0-3 start away from NRG Stadium. Houston held off Jacksonville, 24-21 to cash as 2 ½-point underdogs, even though quarterback Brock Osweiler threw for only 99 yards. Osweiler did connect on a pair of touchdown passes with fringe tight ends Ryan Griffin and Stephen Anderson, while Kareem Jackson returned an interception 47 yards for the opening score of the game. The Texans improved to 3-0 inside the AFC South, while scoring more points at Jacksonville (24) than they did in their previous three road losses combined (22).


Oakland (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) had the week off in Week 10, but the Raiders dominated the Broncos, 30-20 two weeks ago at home. The Raiders picked up their third consecutive victory as running back Latavius Murray scored three touchdowns and racked up 114 yards. Quarterback Derek Carr threw for a career-high 513 yards the game prior in an overtime triumph at Tampa Bay, but Denver held Carr to a season-low 184 yards through the air, his second game this season throwing for 200 yards or less. The Raiders picked up their first home cover of the season in four tries, while improving to 3-9 ATS since the start of 2015 at the Coliseum.


POINTS APLENTY


Whenever the Raiders take the field, expect the scoreboard to light up. For the exception of two games in which Oakland was limited to 17 points or fewer, the Raiders have posted OVERS in seven of nine contests. The Silver and Black has scored at least 28 points seven times, while losing only once when eclipsing this point mark (Week 2 against Atlanta in 35-28 defeat).


Last season, the Raiders cashed the OVER in three of the first four games away from the Black Hole, but finished 3-0-1 to the UNDER in the last four road contests. Even though Oakland is the home team on Monday, we’ll look at their away numbers as Jack Del Rio’s squad is 4-1 to the OVER in five games away from the Coliseum.


NON-DIVISION NONSENSE


The Texans have compiled a terrific 6-1 record against AFC South opponents on the road since Bill O’Brien took over as head coach in 2014. However, Houston has struggled on the highway against non-division foes in this stretch by posting a 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS record, including an 0-3 SU/ATS mark this season. Two of those victories came in the underdog role with one of those wins at Cincinnati last season as a 10-point ‘dog in a 10-6 Monday night triumph. The third victory came against, you guessed it, the Raiders back in 2014.


SERIES HISTORY


The last time these teams faced off was in Week 2 of the 2014 campaign in Oakland as the Texans roughed up the Raiders, 30-14 as three-point road favorites. The Houston defense intercepted Carr twice, while Oakland held the ball for a shade over 21 minutes. Oakland won the previous two meetings in Houston in 2011 and 2013, but the Raiders have lost six of nine lifetime matchups with the Texans since 2004.


LINE MOVEMENT


The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened the Raiders as 5 ½-point favorites, but that number has moved up slightly to 6 heading into Monday. The total opened at 46 as that number has lowered to 45 at the Westgate, but a handful of books have kept the 46 number.


HANDICAPPER’S CORNER


VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says the quarterback advantage obviously lies with the Raiders, but he breaks down some stunning numbers on Houston’s signal-caller, “Carr is rated as a top 10 quarterback despite a heavy workload of pass attempts as he has one of the lowest interception rates of all-time going in his young career, including just three in 354 attempts so far this season. Osweiler has nine interceptions this season and his QB rating ranks 31st in the NFL, only ahead of since-benched starters Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Fitzpatrick among qualified players. Osweiler has completed just over 58 percent of his passes and his 5.6 yards per attempt rate is the very worst in the NFL.”


However, the Texans have fattened up against weak competition according to Nelson, “Statistically there is a huge edge for Houston defensively in this matchup with the Texans eighth in the NFL in yards per play allowed, but the schedule rates among the weaker slates in the league and only a Week 2 win over Kansas City at this point rates as a high quality win for the Texans. The Texans have been out-gained in four of the last five contests despite winning three of those games and the lone game in that run where Houston had a yardage edge was the miraculous overtime win over Indianapolis.”


PROPS – According to the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook


Houston


B. Osweiler - Total Gross Passing Yards
232 ½ - OVER (-110)
232 ½ - UNDER (-110)


B. Osweiler – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (+115)
1 ½ - UNDER (-135)


L. Miller – Total Rushing Yards
80 ½ - OVER (-110)
80 ½ - UNDER (-110)


Oakland


D. Carr – Total Completions
24 ½ - OVER (-110)
24 ½ - UNDER (-110)


D. Carr – Total Touchdown Passes
2 – OVER (+120)
2 – UNDER (-140)


Will A. Cooper score a touchdown?
YES (+120)
NO (-140)

 

[CNOTES]

NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:


10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
11/03/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
11/06/2016 13-8-1 61.90% +2100
11/07/2016 0-1-1 0.00% -550
11/10/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/13/2016 9-12-0 42.86% -2100
11/14/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
1/17/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/20/2016 12-12-0 50.00% -600


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 89-110-6 44.72% -16000


O/U Picks 87-111-5 43.94% -17550


Triple Plays:..... 33 - 46 - 2


NFC EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM.....0 - 1......... ( NY GIANTS THUMPS PHILLY )
NFL GAME OF THE YEAR.................0 - 0 -1 ( CAROLINA PUSHES WITH RAMS )
TOTAL OF THE DAY .......................1 - 0.....( INDY/GB GOES OVER 53 )
NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GOY..............,..0 - 1.....( RAIDERS STOMP BRONCOS )
INTERCONFERENCE GOD.............,...0 - 1,,,,,( DENVER UPSET SAINTS )
NFC GOM................................,....0 - 1.....( PHILLY UPENDS ATLANTA )
NFC NORTH GOM...........................0 - 1......( TAMPA BAY STOMPS THE BEARS)
NFC WEST BLOW OUT.....................0 - 1 .... ( ARIZONA BARELY BEATS THE 9ERS)
SUNDAY NIGHT INTERCONFERENCE GOY....0 - 1 ( SEATTLE UPSETS NEW ENGLAND )
SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR 1 - 0 .....( WELL OVER THE 49 PTS....55 PTS )

 

[CNOTES]

Texans (6-3) vs Raiders (7-2) (in Mexico City)— Oakland won six of last seven games, covered last three, scoring 93 points (10 TDs on last 37 drives). Raiders ran ball for 163.3 yds/game last three games- both their losses this year came at home. Texans got first road win in Jacksonville last week; they’re 1-3 away from home, with all three losses by 18+ points- they’re 2-2 as an underdog this year. Oakland is 7-2 despite being favored in only three of nine games (1-2 as a favorite). Houston won six of last nine series games. Raiders are 2-11 in last 13 post-bye games but they covered last four. AFC South teams are 6-8 as non-divisional underdogs; AFC West teams are 8-6 as non-divisional favorites. Over is 7-2 in Oakland games, 4-2 in Houston’s last six games.

 

[CNOTES]

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 21


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


HOU at OAK 08:30 PM


OAK -6.5 *****


O 45.5 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Carr, Raiders rally past Texans 27-20
November 21, 2016


MEXICO CITY (AP) The party in the stands started early in the second NFL regular season game ever played in Mexico with loud cheers and chants from before kickoff until the final whistle. The Oakland offense took a little longer to get going, but once they did Derek Carr and the Raiders came out with yet another win.


Carr woke up a struggling offense by throwing two touchdown passes in the fourth quarter as the Raiders capped a successful trip to Mexico with a 27-20 victory over the Houston Texans on Monday night.


''We got punched in the mouth,'' Carr said. ''We weren't doing things the way we usually want to do things executing wise. But there was no doubt in anybody's mind that we'd come back and win the football game.''


Oakland had been held to 120 yards through three quarters with the running game going nowhere and Carr finding few open receivers downfield. But that suddenly changed in the fourth quarter to give the Raiders (8-2) their fourth straight win for the first time since 2002 .


With star receiver Amari Cooper lined up in the backfield, Carr found fullback Jamize Olawale open for a 75-yard catch and run that tied Houston (6-4) at 20.


''We felt like that was the momentum shifter,'' Cooper said.


Then Oakland took advantage on two questionable spots by the officials to take over on downs at the 15 and drove 85 yards in five plays to take the lead on a 35-yard pass to Cooper to send the Texans to their fourth loss in five games outside of Houston.


''Very tough loss,'' defensive lineman Jadeveon Clowney said. ''We should have won the game, we are trying to win every game. You don't leave the game in the ref's hands.''


That set off loud celebrations from the pro-Raiders crowd of 76,743 in the second regular season game ever played in Mexico. What was originally scheduled as an Oakland home game featured Raiders music during stoppages, Tommie Smith lighting the Al Davis torch in a memorable return to Mexico City nearly a half-century after his Black Power salute at the 1968 Olympics and frequent ''RAI-DERS!'' chants.


While the atmosphere was electric, the field was a bit slippery leading to some falls and the high elevation 7,380 feet above sea level played a factor. The Raiders needed to use a timeout on defense at one point in the fourth to catch their breath and receiver Michael Crabtree was seen gasping for breath at one point.


''To be able to play here was amazing,'' Carr said. ''There's so much history, so much rowdiness. I love soccer and it gave me a kind of soccer feel.''


CLOSE SPOTS: The Texans were upset on two spots on the fourth-quarter drive before Oakland went ahead. On third-and-2, Lamar Miller was stopped just short of the first down even though Houston believed he got it. Coach Bill O'Brien went for it on fourth down but Akeem Hunt was stopped about an inch short on fourth down and the play stood after a replay challenge.


LASER SHOW: Houston QB Brock Osweiler had to deal with an unusual distraction during the game as a fan with a green laser frequently shined it on the Houston quarterback as he dropped back to pass in an act more familiar in soccer games played here than in NFL games. That wasn't the only soccer tradition imported for this game. Fans also used a homophobic chant on kickoffs. Mexico's soccer federation has been punished by FIFA in the past for the chant during World Cup qualifiers. Fans threw paper airplanes on the field in the third quarter with Oakland's Sean Smith taking a turn throwing one that reached the field during a break.


STREAK BROKEN: Carr had thrown 170 straight passes without an interception before getting picked by A.J. Bouye on a deep ball on the first play from scrimmage in the second half. It was Carr's fourth interception of the season and the first since Kansas City's Marcus Peters got one Oct. 16.


INTERNATIONAL SCORER: With his extra point in the second quarter, Oakland's Sebastian Janikowski scored a point in his third country, having previously done it in the United States and United Kingdom. Joe Nedney is the only other player to score in Mexico, the U.S. and the U.K. Five other players have scored in Canada, the U.K. and the U.S.: running back Steven Jackson and kickers Robbie Gould, Matt Bryant, Dan Carpenter and Jay Feely.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:


10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
11/03/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
11/06/2016 13-8-1 61.90% +2100
11/07/2016 0-1-1 0.00% -550
11/10/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/13/2016 9-12-0 42.86% -2100
11/14/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
1/17/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/20/2016 12-12-0 50.00% -600
11/21/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 90-110-6 45.00% -15500


O/U Picks 88-111-5 44.22% -17050


Triple Plays:..... 35 - 46 - 2


NFC EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM.....0 - 1......... ( NY GIANTS THUMPS PHILLY )
NFL GAME OF THE YEAR.................0 - 0 -1 ( CAROLINA PUSHES WITH RAMS )
TOTAL OF THE DAY .......................1 - 0.....( INDY/GB GOES OVER 53 )
NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GOY..............,..0 - 1.....( RAIDERS STOMP BRONCOS )
INTERCONFERENCE GOD.............,...0 - 1,,,,,( DENVER UPSET SAINTS )
NFC GOM................................,....0 - 1.....( PHILLY UPENDS ATLANTA )
NFC NORTH GOM...........................0 - 1......( TAMPA BAY STOMPS THE BEARS)
NFC WEST BLOW OUT.....................0 - 1 .... ( ARIZONA BARELY BEATS THE 9ERS)
SUNDAY NIGHT INTERCONFERENCE GOY....0 - 1 ( SEATTLE UPSETS NEW ENGLAND )
SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR 1 - 0 .....( WELL OVER THE 49 PTS....55 PTS )

 

[CNOTES]

Tuesday’s six-pack


Six interesting college basketball scores from Monday:


— Wisconsin 74, Tennessee 62- Badgers were up 17 early; Vols caught up early in second half, went head for a while, but the more veteran team prevailed.


— Northwestern 77, Texas 58– Could be a huge win for Wildcats, who have never been in NCAA tournament.


— Bucknell 75, Vanderbilt 72— Oy. Bryce Drew’s old team (Valparaiso) is better than his new one (Vandy). Could be a long winter in Nashville.


— Creighton 86, Ole Miss 77— High-octane Bluejays win Paradise Jam.


— Oklahoma State 98, UConn 90— Brad Underwood is a really good coach. UConn is 1-3.


— Winthrop 84, Illinois 80 OT— Losses like this get coaches fired.


Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……


13) Watching the Maui Classic Monday, got to hear Bill Walton do two games, along with Roxy Bernstein on ESPN2. Walton is a classic, a true original. Here is a partial list of the things he was discussing during the Tennessee-Wisconsin and Oregon-Georgetown games:


— Scrabble
— Grateful Dead and his love of music
— the Dakota Pipeline (Roxy got him off this subject pretty quickly)
— Banana bread
— the world record for amount of time holding your breath (24 minutes?)
— the origin of Georgetown’s mascot (Hoya)
— Davey Crockett (he is from Tennessee)


Walton does a lot of prep; I learn something new every time I listen to him, just that often it has zero to do with basketball. He is upbeat and fun to listen to.


12) Get well soon to Arizona Cardinals’ coach Bruce Arians, who was hospitalized Monday with chest pains. Original prognosis was apparently positive; hopefully he’ll be back on the sidelines very soon.


11) NHL’s Columbus Blue Jackets have a player named Matt Calvert, who got 36 stitches in his face during a game with the Rangers last week. Mr Calvert got his stitches, came back into the game and wound up scoring the game-winning goal. Hockey players are tough.


10) Ryan Fitzpatrick is back at QB for the Jets this week; they play New England Sunday, in a game that was supposed to the Sunday night game until NBC flexed out of it and into the Chiefs-Broncos game.


9) LSU has to hire a football coach soon; Les Miles leaves big shoes to fill, but rumors are out there that big-name candidates are shying away from LSU, because AD Joe Alleva has a bad rap amongst coaches and administrators. People are hesitant to work for a guy who fired a coach with a record as good as Miles has.


8) Bears QB Jay Cutler may be out for the year with a shoulder issue; Matt Barkley is the backup right now— he’s played in five NFL games, but has never started one.


7) Quick basketball story: Long time ago I’m watching a high school basketball tournament with some friends; this is the first night of the tournament. Best player on the team that is losing gets his layup blocked, and he goes down in a heap, pounding the floor in pain. Three people carry him off and help him to the locker room.


One of my friends speaks up: “He isn’t hurt; his pride is hurt. He was getting his ass kicked and didn’t want to play anymore.” It was a bold statement bordering on rude, but we’re there again the next night, and the kid is out there against a lousy team, scores 30 points without a limp.


My friend was right; the kid had begged out of the game the first night. Go figure.


6) UCLA’s football team is not having a great year, in part because they had eight kids drafted by the NFL in April, the most Bruins picked in one draft since 1988.


5) Jim Grobe is the Interim football coach at Baylor this year, where one of the two best players they’ve had is Robert Griffin III. It is ironical that RGIII’s first game at Baylor was against Wake Forest, where the coach at the time was……Jim Grobe.


4) Mexico City is twice as big a city as Houston and Oakland….combined.


3) West Virginia got spanked at home by Oklahoma Saturday, but RB Justin Crawford ran ball 24 times for 330 yards, creating 11 missed tackles. He also fumbled near the goal line, which hurt West Virginia when they still had a chance to win, but 13.8 yds/carry is damn good.


2) FS1 (channel 219 on DirecTV) mainly televises just Big East basketball, which means you get to see a lot of low or mid-majors from now until Christmas, since Big East teams mostly take it easy with their pre-conference schedules.


It is fun to watch how low-major teams who are usually getting whacked use the game as an education, calling timeouts to teach certain situations; that’ll hopefully pay off for them when their conference play starts in January. But there are other reasons these games are played, too……


1) Speaking of which, I may not have these numbers exactly right, but if not I’m close; I got into a Twitter dialogue about this with ESPN’s Seth Greenberg last year.


Long Beach State pays basketball coach Dan Molson roughly $200K a year, but he actually makes around $600K, lot of money for a guy who has taken the 49ers to one NCAA tourney in his nine years in Long Beach. Where does the extra $400K come from?


Here are Long Beach State’s first five D-I games this season, all on the road, all coming with sizable guarantee checks attached: Wichita State-North Carolina-Louisville-UCLA-Washington. The extra $400K comes out of the guarantee money Long Beach gets for playing these games.


Long Beach has lost the first four of those this month, allowing 96.8 pts per game, with 26 points the closest loss of the four. Wonder what the players think about getting their butts kicked, just so their coach can fatten his bank account?

 

[CNOTES]

Week 12


Vikings (6-4) @ Lions (6-4)— Battle for first place in NFC North. Detroit kicked 58-yard FG on last play of regulation, won first meeting 22-16 in OT at Minnesota three weeks ago. This rivalry has been swept in four of last five years; Lions are 7-5 in last 12 games with Vikings, 4-2 in last six played here. Minnesota snapped 4-game skid with win over Arizona; they’ve scored a TD on defense/special teams in 4 of their 6 wins. Vikings lost last three road games, by 11-10-6 points- they’re 1-1 as road dogs. All 10 Detroit games were decided by 7 or less points; Lions trailed all 10 games in 4th quarter- they’re 4-1 at home, 2-2 as home favorites. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year. Last four Detroit games stayed; under total; under is 4-1 in Viking road games.


Redskins (6-3-1) @ Cowboys (9-1)— Two hot teams; Washington is 6-1-1 in last eight games, Dallas has won/covered nine straight games. Really short week for Redskins, who have long road trip, plus they played Sunday NIGHT. This is only 4th true road game for Washington; they are 2-1 in first three, all decided by 6 or less points- two of those were in New Jersey/Baltimore, very short trips- they also had neutral field game in London. Dallas hasn’t lost since Opening Night vs Giants; they’re 3-1 as home favorites this year. Cowboy opponents are just 8 for last 28 on third down. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC East divisional games. Over is 4-1 in last five Redskin games, 2-5 in last seven Dallas games.


Steelers (5-5) @ Colts (5-5)— Colt QB Luck had concussion in win over Titans; check status for this game; his backup is Tolzien (0-1-1 as NFL starter, with ’13 Packers). Pitt is 13-2 in last 15 series games, winning last two 51-34/45-10; they outgained Colts 522-240 in LY’s game. Steelers won three of last four visits here, but last one was in 2011. Pitt snapped 4-game skid with lackluster 24-9 win in Cleveland; they’re 2-3 on road, with losses by 31-15-7 points. Only one of 10 Steeler games was decided by less than 7 points. Indy won three of last four games, is 3-2 at home, 2-2-1 vs spread as an underdog this year. NFC North teams are 8-18 vs spread in non-divisional games, 4-10 on road. AFC South teams are 13-14 vs spread, 7-7 at home. Steelers allowed 16 or less points in their wins, 21+ in their losses.


Titans (5-6) @ Bears (2-8)— Chicago QB Cutler hurt shoulder Sunday, may be out for year; check status- former Eagle/Cardinal/USC Barkley is backup QB (65 PA in five games, no starts). Bears were outscored 32-0 in second half of last two games, 59-14 in last four; they’re 2-2 at home, beating rivals Lions/Vikings- they’re 3-4 vs spread as an underdog. Tennessee has their bye next week, could be little tired; they’re 2-3 on road, 3-1-1 as road favorite last four years (0-0 this year). Home side lost last four series games; Titans are 3-2 here, but last visit was in ’08. AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread in non-divisional road games. NFC North teams are 6-6 in non-divisional home teams. Over is 7-1 in last eight Tennessee games, 1-4 in Bears’ last five. Underdogs covered all four Chicago home games this season.

 

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 11
November 21, 2016




Overall Notes


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 11 RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs


Straight Up 10-3
Against the Spread 8-5


Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-5
Against the Spread 6-7


Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 2-11


The largest underdogs to win straight up


Buccaneers (+7, ML +260) at Chiefs, 19-17

The largest favorite to cover


Patriots (-12) at 49ers, 30-17
Steelers (-9) at Browns, 24-9
Cowboys (-7) vs. Ravens, 27-17


Road Bucs


-- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers posted another road win and cover against the Kansas City Chiefs, improving to 4-1 SU/ATS away from home, while managing a 1-4 SU/ATS mark at Raymond James Stadium. Unfortunately for the Bucs they're back home in Week 12 against the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are 2-2-1 SU/3-2 ATS away from the 12th Man and Pacific Northwest so far this season.


Miami Nice


-- The Miami Dolphins stayed out on the west coast after their win last week in San Diego, acclimating themselves. They slipped behind 10-0 against the Los Angeles Rams, but rallied for the 14-10 victory against rookie QB Jared Goff in his NFL debut. The Dolphins have won five straight games since a 1-4 SU/ATS start, and they're 4-0-1 ATS during the win streak. The Dolphins also improved to 3-0 ATS in the Pacific Time Zone.
Total Recall


-- The 'over' has been dominant this season, but Week 11 was a low-scoring week of action with the 'under' hitting in 11 of 13 games heading into the Monday night game between Houston Texans-Oakland Raiders at Estadia Azteca in Ciudad de Mexico. In three AFC battles (with one remaining), the 'under' was a perfect 3-0. In five games between NFC foes the 'under' ended up 3-2. In five games featuring AFC vs. NFC teams the 'under' was a perfect 5-0. Through the first 11 weeks of NFL action the 'over' is 82-76 (51.9%).


-- The two games with totals under 40 points ended up splitting 1-1 in the 'over/under'. The Arizona-Minnesota (39.5) ended up going 'over' with 54 points, helped out by two defensive/special teams scored by the Vikings on plays over 100 yards each. The lowest total of the week was in the Miami-Los Angeles game, and the 'over' was never threatened. There were just 10 total points through the first three quarters in the uncharacteristic rains of Southern California.


-- There were three games with totals of 51 or more points, and all three games ended up going 'under'. The Tennessee-Indianapolis game had 28 points at halftime, and it appeared the 'over' was on its way. Defense suddenly took over and there were just one touchdown in the third quarter and two field goals in the fourth quarter.


-- The 'over/under' was 1-1 in two primetime games leading up to the International Series game between the Texans and Raiders (45) Monday night. Officially, the 'over' is 16-17 (48.4%) through 33 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.


Injury Report

-- Bengals WR A.J. Green (hamstring) suffered what is believed to be a significant hamstring tear, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season. To make matters worse, RB Giovani Bernard (knee) suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee and he will miss the remainder of the season as well.


-- Bills RB LeSean McCoy (thumb) left the game in Cincinnati due to a thumb injury and he was unable to return. It turned out to be a dislocation which will require surgery.


-- Eagles RB Ryan Mathews (knee) was in a brace and limping after suffering a medial collateral ligament injury in the loss in Seattle. RB Darren Sproles (ribs) was also forced out early due to an injury to his ribs, leaving the running back duties in the hands of rookie Wendell Smallwood and Kenjon Barner.


-- Seahawks RB C.J. Prosise (shoulder) was forced out due to what was termed a "significant scapula" injury, and he is expected to miss time. The team did welcome back RB Thomas Rawls (leg) from a lengthy injury.


Looking Ahead


-- The Vikings and Lions do battle on Thanksgiving in the early game, and Minnesota is looking for revenge after a 22-16 overtime loss at home when Golden Tate found the end zone midway through the extra session. The Lions are 3-2 SU in their past five home games at Ford Field against the Vikings, but just 1-4 ATS during the span. The 'under' has cashed in five of the past five meetings in this series.


-- Detroit has won each of their past three games on Thanksgiving, and they have covered four in a row on the holiday. The 'over' is also 4-0 in the past four Thanksgiving games for the Lions, and 5-1 in their past six.


-- The Redskins and Cowboys renew acquaintances in Big D in the mid-afternoon Thanksgiving game. The Cowboys won 27-23 in the nation's capital in Week 2, winning and covering with an 'over' result. The Cowboys have won and covered in three of the past four with three 'over' results. However, in their past eight home games against Washington the Cowboys are 4-4 SU and 1-7 ATS.


-- Dallas has won just two of their past six games on Thanksgiving, including a 38-31 loss Nov. 22, 2012 against the Redskins. The Cowboys have failed to cover in five straight Thanksgiving games while the 'over' has connected in three of the past four, and four of the past six on the holiday.


-- The Jets host the Patriots, and it is usually a high-scoring affair when the two AFC East rivals get together. While the Jets are just 2-8 SU in the past 10 matchups, they are 5-0-1 ATS over the past six meetings and 10-5-1 ATS over the past 16. In the past six meetings in the Meadowlands, the Jets are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS, including 3-0 ATS in the past three. The 'over' is 5-1 in the past six in New Jersey, and 11-2 in the past 13 meetings overall in this series.

 

[CNOTES]

Bettors strike back in Week 11
November 21, 2016

One week after getting pummeled by Las Vegas sports books, bettors came back reloaded and strong for Sunday's NFL Week 11 action as all their favorite betting teams came through with covers and the result was cashing huge amounts of four and five-team parlays. The Sports Books just can't recover from 20-to-1 payouts all day, and they didn't as the Sunday night outcome between the Redskins and Packers stopped the bleeding.


William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada reported Sunday morning their top four one-sided bet games were the Steelers (93%), Seahawks (83%), Dolphins (81%) and Patriots (80%) and all four covered the spread. The only reason their weekly favorite, the Cowboys, didn't rank high was because sharp action evened the cash pool on that game.


But as far as the average Joe goes with his parlay, he had the Cowboys laying -7 at home against the No. 1 ranked defense of the Ravens, and he was right with a 27-17 win. It was the ninth straight cover for the Cowboys, and depending on what number he got in Week 1 with the Cowboys 20-19 loss to the Giants, it's possible he's covered all 10 games this season with Dallas.


"If the Packers and Raiders come in, we may have to close," joked William Hill's top bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich prior to the Sunday night kickoff after favorites had gone 8-3 ATS on the day, including the final three afternoon games that produced several more 6-to-1 parlay payouts.


Those final three games capped a great day for bettors, including the sharps that took +14, +13.5 and +13 early in the week with the 49ers at home against the Patriots. By the weekend most books were dealing -12 or -12.5, which is when most bettors make their parlay wagers. Wouldn't you know it, the Patriots win 30-17. Sharps cash on the dog, and so did the masses with the favorite helping the books get middled.


The Patriots game also produced a four-way 6-point teaser win when including the total. The spreads were so close to the actual results that eight of the first 11 games produced an all-side teaser win for bettors. No matter which side you chose, you came out a winner in that betting option, which is part of the reason NFL two-team teasers are the best value of any casino proposition offered. You had to really try hard to lose a two-team teaser on Sunday.


The books had one big savior on the day.


"Tampa Bay winning at Kansas City was by far our biggest winner," said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback. "It wasn't just about them covering, it was about the after effect of everything that happened on the day. Half the win was on parlays, which halted the momentum somewhat on the day. It also killed a bunch of teasers, an area we really got beat up on. If the Chiefs would have covered it would have been really ugly with the eventual results. It saved a million dollar loss of the day for us."


The Buccaneers didn't need the +7 at Kansas City, winning outright 19-17, and paying out +270 on the money-line. They were one of two underdogs on the day to win. The Bills 16-12 win at Cincinnati (-2.5) was the other, and most bettors (54% at William Hill) were on the right side on that one as well.


The books also fared well with the Giants failing to cover -7 at home in a 22-16 win against the Bears. They beat out a pile of parlays, but there was some larger money siding with Chicago at +7.5. Another group had laid -6 and -6.5 with the Giants earlier in the week. The bigger picture was killing a leg on big parlays tied to other teams, but the net result wasn't so great because of the straight bets on the Bears. Giants kicker Robbie Gould missed two extra-points in the gusty winds which obviously had a big effect on the decision. The books should send him a gift basket for helping defuse parlay risk.


There ended up being 12 missed extra-points between the 12 games on Sunday and only three of those venues can blame the misses on the wind. It's not directly related, but no game on Sunday landed on the NFL's most key number of '3' points. This trend of missed extra-points this season, though, will have an effect, even though the goal for most trailing coaches is to somehow get within three.


Overall this season, the books are well below budgeted numbers from their initial forecasts on NFL action before the season started. The fall months are when the big numbers are produced mostly because of consistent NFL win, but not this year. It's the equivalent of a major retailer saying they broke even in December.

 

[CNOTES]

Opening Line Report - Week 12
November 21, 2016


If you’ve been blindly betting the Cowboys (9-0-1 ATS) and the Patriots (8-2 ATS), and blindly fading the Browns (2-9 ATS) and the 49ers (2-8 ATS) this NFL season, you’ve cashed tickets at a stout 34-6-1 clip.


“What’s been hurting us the most is the Cowboys and Patriots covering every week and the Browns and the Niners failing to cover,” said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology.


“Free money (for bettors). Just bet against the Niners and the Browns,” Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill U.S., said of the tough day for his book on Sunday.


Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, said public action on the Cowboys has picked up in recent weeks. “They bet against them at Green Bay (in Week 6), but since that game they’ve been betting them religiously,” he said of the gamblers at his shop.


The Cowboys, who have covered every spread since pushing against the Giants in Week 1, take their traditional featured spot on Thanksgiving Day next week, opening as solid home favorites against the Redskins.


Here’s a look at the opening betting lines for the entire Week 12 slate, with more insight from Bogdanovich, Simbal and Salmons. Numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 11 p.m. ET on Sunday night, with early moves and differences among books noted as well.


Thursday, Nov. 24


Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5)


Some shops were dealing Detroit -3 (even) for the early Thanksgiving Day contest. The Lions have won five of their last six but have trailed in the fourth quarter in every game this season. While that’s not confidence-inspiring, it’s fair to say the Vikings were fortunate in their 30-24 home win over Arizona on Sunday that snapped a four-game losing streak.


Just a few weeks ago, the Lions won at Minnesota as 4.5-point dogs, 22-16 in overtime. But Minnesota owns a 3-7-1 ATS record over Detroit in their last 11 meetings.


Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7/-120)


Perhaps under the radar thanks the Cowboys’ nine-game winning streak, the Redskins, since losing their first two games of the season, are 6-1-1 SU and 7-1 ATS, including Sunday night’s 42-24 win as 3-point home favorites against the Packers.


Pittsburgh Steelers (-3 even) at Indianapolis Colts


While most shops opened Pitt -3 (even), CG Technology hung -3 (flat) and moved to -3 (-105) after booking some sharp action on the home dog.


Sunday, Nov. 27


San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans (-1)


The Texans are a perfect 5-0 SU at home this season, so the opportunity to play them as such a short favorite (better yet, at pick ‘em at CG) has to entice some bettors. But most bettors are not buying Brock Osweiler. Plus, this looks like a good spot for the Chargers, coming off a bye and facing a Houston team that has to play the Raiders on Monday night in Mexico.


“(Bettors) love playing teams off a bye because 1) you can get healthy and 2) you can game plan, and the other team is coming off a short week and a weird environment, Mexico,” Bogdanovich said.


He added of next week’s line, “One thing for sure with San Diego is it’s going to be close at the end, so anything near a pick ‘em with San Diego blindly is right.”


Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-1.5)


This spread ranged from Chicago -1 to -2 around Las Vegas on Sunday night.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-7)


The Westgate hung Buffalo -6.5 but moved to -7 after a few minutes of wagering, and that’s where the rest of town opened the game.


Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)


CG moved from Baltimore -3 to -3 (-120) after a limit-bet on the favorite, Simbal said, while William Hill moved from -3.5 to -3 (-120).


To some, the outlook looks bleak in Cincinnati, and the loss of A.J. Green (hamstring) isn’t helping matters.


“He’s huge, he’s their only weapon, and they’re another team spiraling out of control,” Bogdanovich said. “They’re a mess. They’re a run-first team, but they aren’t running the ball and now their only big playmaker is gone. They left three good years on the table where they should have advanced in the playoffs. Sometimes that window closes, and this window is closing. I see Marvin Lewis getting fired. I think Cincinnati is a disaster, and they’re definitely a play-against team the rest of the way.”


Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-4)


This line ranged from 3.5 at the Wynn to 4.5 at the William Hill. While his shop opened at the high end of the market, Bogdanovich pointed out that Arizona, statistics-wise, has been the better team even in some of its losses.


“Arizona’s a weird story,” Bogdanovich said. “They completely dominated a good Seattle team, and (Sunday) they completed dominated (the Vikings), but they keep shooting themselves in the foot with catastrophic plays. You can’t fade 100-yard interception returns and 100-yard kickoff returns. You look at the box score and you’d bet your kidney and your lungs on Arizona at pick ‘em.”


San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (-8)


While some books were dealing Miami -7.5 on Sunday night, the Westgate and William Hill both opened -8.5 and moved to -8.


Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)


GC opened New Orleans -6 before a move to -6.5 a few hours later, while the Saints opened -7 elsewhere. This will be Jared Goff’s first start on the road in the NFL. Based on Sunday’s home game vs. the Dolphins, Goff’s first NFL start, Bogdanovich doesn’t see much difference between the rookie and Case Keenum.


“About the same,” Bogdanovich said. “(Goff) didn’t do a whole hell of a lot (Sunday). They weren’t going to let him do a whole hell of a lot. They led the entire game, and they never got aggressive or tried to put it up or tried to press. They thought 10 would be enough. I know one thing: the defensive players for the Rams gotta be sick. They wasted these two, three years of good defenses with horrific offenses.”


New York Giants (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns


There was a mix of 6.5 and -7 (even) for this one, and it’s fair to wonder if sharp money is going to keep chasing Cleveland. When it comes to the Browns this season, the public has gotten the better of the sharps.


“The Cleveland numbers get so inflated that you usually get wiseguys playing back on Cleveland, which we had a lot of (Sunday vs. Pittsburgh), but the public goes against Cleveland like clockwork,” Salmons said.


Meanwhile, the Giants have won five straight, but Salmons is not yet convinced.


“I don’t think much of the Giants,” he said. “They beat Cincinnati by 1 last week, they were lucky to beat the Bears (Sunday). They’re winning, but I don’t think much of the Giants.”


Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers


Simbal said while Seattle has become a hot bet-on team for his customers, his shop took a wiseguy play on Tampa Bay +6. Simbal’s team didn’t move the number, though, with plenty of Seahawks money expected to show up.


Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders (-4)


The Westgate opened Oakland -4.5 and moved to -4, while CG was dealing -3.5 on Sunday night. Two factors could influence how this line moves: the way the Raiders perform Monday night against the Texans in Mexico and the status of Carolina linebacker Luke Kuechly, who is in concussion protocol.


Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-3.5/-120)


CG originally hung 4 on this AFC West showdown that has been flexed into NBC’s prime-time slot, but that number didn’t last long, and Denver -3.5 (-120) was the most prevalent line Sunday night in Las Vegas.


New England Patriots (-9) at New York Jets


As the Westgate, New England grew from a 7.5- to an 8.5-point road favorite at its division rival, but that number was still on the low end of the market, as most shops were dealing -9. The Pats are 1-6 ATS in their last six trips to the Jets as favorites.


Monday, Nov. 28


Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)


The Week 12 Monday nighter doesn’t look nearly as sexy as it did earlier this season. Green Bay has lost five of its last six games; Philly has lost five of seven.