Cnotes 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

CNOTES · Jan 1, 2017

SuperContest Picks - Week 17
December 31, 2016

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9

Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15 | Week 16

Week 17

1) Green Bay -3.5 (538)

2) Miami +9.5 (417)

3) Detroit +3.5 (405)

4) Baltimore +2 (389)

5) Denver -1 (374)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 17 MATCHUPS & ODDS

Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

Houston (+3.5) 244 Tennessee (-3.5) 155

Buffalo (-3.5) 196 N.Y. Jets (+3.5) 178

Baltimore (+2) 389 Cincinnati (-2) 147

N.Y. Giants (+7.5) 318 Washington (-7.5) 226

Green Bay (-3.5) 538 Detroit (+3.5) 405

Jacksonville (+4.5) 184 Indianapolis (-4.5) 318

Dallas (+4) 168 Philadelphia (-4) 240

Chicago (+5) 180 Minnesota (-5) 189

Carolina (+6) 350 Tampa Bay (-6) 134

Cleveland (+6) 140 Pittsburgh (-6) 251

New Orleans (+6.5) 313 Atlanta (-6.5) 318

New England (-9.5) 172 Miami (+9.5) 417

Arizona (-6) 244 Los Angeles (+6) 101

Kansas City (-6) 320 San Diego (+6) 271

Seattle (-9.5) 272 San Francisco (+9.5) 102

Oakland (+1) 221 Denver (-1) 374

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS

Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage

1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 7-18 28%
6 1-3-1 8-21-1 28%
7 3-2 11-23-1 32%
8 3-2 14-25-1 35%
9 2-3 16-28-1 36%
10 0-5 16-33-1 32%
11 3-2 19-35-1 35%
12 5-0 24-35-1 40%
13 3-2 27-37-1 42%
14 4-0-1 31-37-2 46%
15 2-2-1 33-39-3 46%
16 4-1 37-40-3 48%

CNOTES · Jan 1, 2017

SNF - Packers at Lions
December 29, 2016

The NFL has selected us a fantastic Sunday Night Football matchup where there's a winner-take-all situation when the Green Bay Packers (9-6 straight up, 8-6-1 against the spread) visit the Detroit Lions (9-6 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) at Ford Field. The winner wins the NFC North which carries a home date in next week's Wild Card round in the playoffs. The loser, depending on results of the Giants-Redskins and Buccaneers-Panthers, might have its season end.

Detroit had control of its own destiny as the NFC North leader, but lost its last two and the game before that they needed quarterback Matt Stafford's eighth fourth-quarter comeback to beat the lowly Bears 20-17. That's three-straight non-covers after being on a 6-1-1 ATS run. The critical link to the Lions not playing as well has been the absence of do-everything running back Theo Riddick (wrist) the last three games, and he didn't practice this week which likely means he's out again.

Meanwhile, the Packers have been winning while the Lions are losing to pull up even at 9-6 in the NFC North. Green Bay has won its last five games (4-1 ATS) and have scored at least 30-points in its last three (all three 'over' winners). They've been in playoff mode the last five weeks because they knew a loss at any juncture after being 4-6 would make this Week 17 game meaningless.

One team is rolling, and the other is one the skids. This one is for all the marbles, with Stafford having his best chance to finally win a division title. But Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers definitely has more big game experience.

The one thing for certain is if betting with the current hot team, you're laying a terribly inflated number that has Green Bay as a 3.5-point road favorite.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Packers -3 prior to the Lions 42-21 loss at Dallas Monday night. After the game started they took it off the board and then re-opened Packers -3.5 on Tuesday. On two instances they have moved the Lions to +3.5 (-120) showing there has been support taking the hook with the home 'dog at a flat price. The total has been bet up from 48 to 49.5. Briefly, before Monday night the total was 46.5

CAPTAIN COMEBACK

Stafford has led a Lions offense to eight fourth-quarter come from behind victories this season, which is an all-time record. It's incredible to think that the Lions have won only nine times this season, which brings to question how good the Lions really are if they're always down late in games. Since Jim Bob Cooter became the offensive coordinator halfway through last season, Stafford has been a changed QB with a short passing game, and he's also been aided by not trying to force passes into the now retired wide receiver Calvin Johnson.

RECENT HISTORY

In the Week 3 meeting at Lambeau Field, the Packers had a 31-10 lead at halftime, and while Detroit outscored them 17-3 in the second-half, Matt Stafford fell short of a comeback in a 34-27 loss. Depending on when betting that game, it fell on the number at +7. Aaron Rodgers tossed four TDs (no picks) and Stafford threw for 385 yards and three TDs (one pick). The favorite has covered eight of the past nine meetings, and most of those have been the Packers who are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 clashes. Green Bay has stayed 'under' in seven of its last 10 games at Detroit.

A TIE IS GOOD

In a season of multiple tied games, this would be a good spot for one as far as the Packers and Lions are concerned because a tie would get both teams into the playoffs. Green Bay would win the division and Detroit would get the wild card. It wouldn't matter what the Redskins did at home against the Giants earlier in the day. If the Redskins win against New York, the loser of this game goes home.

NELSON ALMOST 100 PERCENT?

Jordy Nelson may never be the speedy player he once was before tearing his ACL last season, but he's shown over the Packers five-game winning streak to be as close to his old-self as possible. How does 38 receptions for 524 yards and five TDs over his last five? He's looking almost like the 2014 version of Nelson and currently leads NFL receivers with 14 TDs. He may not be blowing by cornerbacks any more, but he might be a little craftier with his route running to make him at times better than the younger, pre-injury version.

KEY INJURIES

The Lions got some good news this week when cornerback Darius Slay and center Travis Swanson both returned to practice which is a great indication they'll play. The Lions secondary looked lost without Slay last week at Dallas. WR Anquan Boldin practiced as well. but was favoring his injured finger which had a splint on it. The bad news for Detroit was that Riddick and returner Andre Roberts have not practiced through Thursday. The Packers are still likely to be without WR Randall Cobb who is nursing an ankle.

ROBERTS' RATING

I have Green Bay 1-point better than Detroit on a neutral field and I give Ford Field 2.5-points for Detroit, so my raw number on the game is the Lions -1.5. Public perception is worth about 1.5-points for the Packers. However, the public has already shown that they feel Green Bay -3 was too cheap.

TRENDS

-- Green Bay is 9-4 ATS in last 13 January games.
-- Green Bay is 23-11 ATS in last 34 against NFC North teams.
-- Green Bay has seen the 'over' go 7-2 in last nine games.

-- Detroit is 5-1 ATS in past six home games.
-- Detroit is 6-19-1 ATS in last 26 games after allowed 30+ points in previous game.
-- Detroit has watched the 'under' go 8-1 in its last nine games.

SUPER BOWL

The Lions are currently 50/1 odds at the Westgate, which sounds fair considering they have to win their next five games and do it mostly as underdogs. The Packers are 12/1, but the best value right now if liking Green Bay is to roll over a money-line bet on the Packers the next five games.

CNOTES · Jan 1, 2017

Packers, Lions hook up
December 30, 2016

SNF Betting Preview
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Green Bay (-3.5); Total set at 50.5

While there may be a flood of unimportant games on the Week 17 schedule, the NFL got the one division showdown they were hoping for as the Packers and Lions battle for the NFC North crown. The winner of this game will host a wildcard game, while the loser will have to hope they get some help from the Giants and Panthers by beating the Redskins and Buccaneers respectively. If that were to happen then there is a chance we see these two NFC North rivals meet again next week, but for now it's all about this contest with everything on the line.

When the Green Bay Packers were 4-6 SU after Week 11, Aaron Rodgers came out and said he and his teammates were very confident they could win out and get to the playoffs. Green Bay is one win away from making that statement become a reality and there is no denying they've played their best football of the season the past month and a half.

Unsurprisingly, it's the Packers who have gotten all the early support from bettors when you look at VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers (75%) as many expect them to live up to Rodgers' proclaimation and win the division. Green Bay is always going to be a favorite of recreational bettors every year, but with the run they've been on and the Lions looking awful in the 2nd half of MNF vs. Dallas a week ago, it's almost become a perfect storm for bettors to flock to the Packers this week. After all, Green Bay did beat the Lions 34-27 in the first meeting and the game wasn't nearly as close as the final score suggests.

But with the sportsbooks clearly rooting for at least a Detroit cover in this contest, the game turn out to be a bit different. Green Bay may be undefeated since Rodgers made that statement, but the schedule has also worked in their favor. Three of their five wins have come at home, and only two of those five wins came against playoff teams.

It's been on the road where we've seen a significant worse Packers team all year long and their two road wins during this stretch came against Philadelphia and Chicago; not exactly the best of the best in the league. It was also in that trip to Chicago where Green Bay watched the Bears storm back from a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter to tie the game and the Packers needed a Hail Mary and FG with no time left on the clock to escape with a victory. With all the momentum clearly on the Bears side at the time, going to OT could have been disastrous for Green Bay.

The Lions aren't likely to make the same mistakes Chicago did, and it's actually been Detroit who have been a phenomenal fourth quarter team all year long. Should a similar scenario arise this week, Green Bay's luck may actually run out.

Furthermore, when the Packers have been on the road against playoff bound, or teams that were/are in the playoff hunt, they've really struggled aside from one game in Atlanta. Green Bay suffered blow out losses to Washington and Tennessee prior to this five-game winning streak, and lost in Minnesota by three points in Week 2. The game in Atlanta was only a one-point defeat, but Green Bay still allowed 33 points that day in the dome and their 28.9 points allowed per road game this year is cause for concern.

Meanwhile, Detroit has only lost once at home all year long and that was all the way back in Week 2. The 16-15 loss vs. Tennessee was a touch embarrassing at the time for the Lions as it sparked a three-game losing streak, but since then they are a perfect 6-0 SU at home and have gone 8-3 SU (7-4 ATS) overall. Losing two straight on the road to the Giants and Cowboys is nothing to be extremely frustrated over and I know if you told the Lions that they'd have a home game in Week 17 to win the division they'd gladly take it. The fact that everyone is already counting them out here only adds fuel to the fire.

So with the Lions 7-3 ATS after losing by 14+ points, and 5-1 ATS in their last six at home, we could see that 'hook' on +3.5 come very much into play here. The number could even reach +4 or higher by kickoff with plenty more Green Bay money on the horizon, and with the stakes as high as they are, Green Bay's struggles on the road, and the Lions prowess late in games, this game should be decided by three points or less.

Best Bet: Take Detroit +3.5