Cnotes 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[CNOTES]

TNF - Browns at Ravens
November 10, 2016


Cleveland at Baltimore (-8, 43.5), 8:25 pm ET, CBS/NFLN


Understand that this will probably be one of the lowest-rated games of the NFL season, the latest example that the NFL is dealing with diminished popularity. Someone really thought It would be a good idea to put the Browns in prime time, so we get this. One thing it isn’t advantageous to be is an elitist, so don’t take this in that vein, but the NFL will stop making these mistakes next season. Matchups like these, that instantly remind you that there are other things to do on Thursday night besides being a slave to the NFL, should stop popping up in prime time next season.
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As it is, an unattractive bout between AFC Central foes presents an opportunity to shun the league – have you seen Concussion on cable? – or embrace a matchup that present the Ravens with an opportunity to continue being relevant in the AFC. The alternative would be watching the Browns win for the first time, which Hue Jackson merits but won’t necessarily get this week. Jackson has talked about the need for airing it out more after being defeated by Dallas at home in a game that would have been closer had refs called pass interference penalties in the end zone, so Cleveland might be especially aggressive here. As far as Baltimore is concerned, an upset of Pittsburgh allowed the team to snap a four-game losing streak and puts it back on track to contend for a playoff spot. Joe Flacco left Sunday’s game with a knee brace issue but is otherwise fine, while rookie QB Cody Kessler will continue to start for Cleveland ahead of veteran Josh McCown.


Baltimore Ravens
Season win total: 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win AFC North: 9/2 to 9/2
Odds to win AFC: 15/1 to 25/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 40/1 to 50/1

Cleveland Browns
Season win total: 4.5 (Over -150, Under +130)
Odds to win AFC North: 2000/1 to 2000/1
Odds to win AFC: 100/1 to off board
Odds to win Super Bowl: 200/1 to off board

LINE MOVEMENT


Baltimore rescued all of its future bettors with its upset of Pittsburgh but was still faded by the WestgateLV SuperBook. Meanwhile, wagers on the winless Browns have come off the board altogether since they can no longer win a division or make the playoffs. As far as this matchup is concerned, most books set the opening number at Ravens -9.5, but that lofty number is now available from 7.5-to-10, coming in on the low side at WestgateLV SuperBook and as high at -10 at the Mirage. The total is set at 44.5 to 45.


INJURY CONCERNS


The two most important players on the Browns offense, top tackle Joe Thomas (knee) and Terrelle Pryor (hamstring) will be out there for the Browns. Defensive back Jordan Taylor is the only player who participated last week that won't play.
Favored Baltimore is more banged up, listing tackle Marshal Yanda (shoulder) as 'doubtful.' The Ravens defense played without Elvis Dumervil and Shareece Wright last week and won't be available again.


RECENT MEETINGS (Baltimore 4-1 SU, 2-2-1 ATS last five; OVER 4-1)


9/18/16 Baltimore 25-20 at Cleveland (BAL -4.5, 41.5)
11/30/15 Baltimore 33-27 at Cleveland (CLE -6, 41)
9/20/15 Cleveland 37-33 at Baltimore (BAL -6, 42)
12/28/14 Baltimore 20-10 vs. Cleveland (BAL -14, 40)
9/21/14 Baltimore 23-21 at Cleveland (BAL -1.5, 43)


PROPS


Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride that Siemian TD prop going over. The Chargers have surrendered nine passing touchdowns, allowing four of the five QBs they've faced to throw for multiple TDs.


Cody Kessler completions 22: (-110 o/u)
Terrance West TD: (+100 yes/-120 under)
Joe Flacco passing yards 263.5: (-110 o/u)
Terrelle Pryor receiving yards 63.5: (-110 o/u)
Joe Flacco TD passes 1.5: (-130 over, +110 under)
Cody Kessler TD Passes + Interceptions 2: (EVEN over, -120 under)
Total combined sacks 4.5: (-120 over, +100 under)
First score of game will be: (-180 TD, +160 other)
Total points: Ravens 27.5, Browns 17.5 (-110 o/u)


RAVENS AS A HOME FAVORITE


The Ravens are 1-2 in this situation this seasonand were 0-3-1 ATS last year. Included in those results is that 33-30 home loss last Oct.11.


BROWNS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG


The Browns are obviously winless (1-3 ATS) this season and were atrocious in this role in ’15, going 1-7 straight up (3-5 ATS). The lone victory came against the Ravens.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Thursday, November 10

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football betting preview: Browns at Ravens
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Ravens' quarterback Joe Flacco has more interceptions (seven) than TD passes (six) and a paltry 76.0 passer rating.


Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-10, 45)


The Cleveland Browns will be looking to avoid moving one step closer to a dubious league record when they visit the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night. The Browns not only are attempting to avoid matching the worst start in franchise history, but also end the chances of joining the Detroit Lions as the only team to finish 0-16.


"We're not going to go 0-16. That's for a fact," Cleveland linebacker Chris Kirksey said following Sunday's 35-10 home drubbing by Dallas. "We're not going to be winless". One of the reasons the Browns are in this predicament is a 25-20 loss to Baltimore in Week 2, when they blew a 20-2 first-quarter lead. The Ravens were mired in a slide of their own heading into their bye, but snapped a four-game skid with a 21-14 win over visiting Pittsburgh on Sunday. That victory moved Baltimore back to the .500 mark and, more importantly, into a tie with the Steelers atop the AFC North.


TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.


LINE HISTORY: The Baltimore Ravens opened as big 10.5-point home favorite over the winless Cleveland Browns and by Wednesday night that number was down to -10. The total opened at 45.5 and came down slightly to 45. View the complete line history here.


WEATHER: Conditions are expected to be clear with temperatures at around 50 degrees at kickoff. It's not expected to rain (POP 1-2 percent) and winds will be light (5 mph) and not a factor on the field.

INJURIES:


Browns - WR R. Louis (probable, hamstring), OL J. Thomas (probable, knee), DL J. Meder (probable, knee), DL C. Nassib (probable, eye), QB C. Kessler (probable, leg), WR T. Pryor Sr. (probable, hamstring), LB N. Orchard (questionable, ankle), DB J. Haden (questionable, groin), DB J. Taylor (out, groin), WR J. Gordon (out indefinitely, suspension), QB R. Griffin III (questionable, shoulder).


Ravens - RB K. Dixon (probable, chest), CB S. Wright (questionable, hamstring), TE C. Gilmore (questionable, thigh), LB K. Correa (questionable, thigh), G M. Yanda (doubtful, shoulder), LB E. Dumervil (out indefinitely, foot).


ABOUT THE BROWNS (0-9 SU, 2-7 ATS, 6-3 O/U): Cleveland has had a revolving door at quarterback, losing starter Robert Griffin III in the season opener and watching Josh McCown suffer a broken collarbone against the Ravens. While McCown returned to the lineup in a narrow loss to the New York Jets in Week 8, coach Hue Jackson went back to Cody Kessler on Sunday and will stick with the rookie Thursday despite a nondescript effort against the Cowboys. The Browns managed only 45 yards rushing versus Dallas, including four on six carries by Isaiah Crowell, who ran for a season-high 133 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. The Browns are yielding 421.7 yards and 30.3 points per game, each ranking 31st in the league.


ABOUT THE RAVENS (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS, 3-4-1 O/U): Baltimore's defense came up big in the win over bitter rival Pittsburgh, holding the Steelers to 277 total yards and 36 on the ground to build a 21-0 lead in the third quarter. There remain plenty of concerns over the offense, which produced one touchdown -- a 95-yard scoring pass to wideout Mike Wallace -- and also labored on the ground, rushing for 50 yards on 29 carries. Baltimore ranks 28th in the league with 81.8 yards rushing per game and is averaging 2.2 yards per carry over the past three contests -- a full two yards less than in the first five games. Quarterback Joe Flacco has more interceptions (seven) than TD passes (six) and a paltry 76.0 passer rating.

TRENDS:


* Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC North.
* Ravens are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 6-0 in Browns last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 home games.
* Road team is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The bettors are backing the Browns with 63 percent of the wagers on the road underdogs. As for the total, 51 percent of bettors are taking the Over.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:


10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
11/03/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
11/06/2016 13-8-1 61.90% +2100
11/07/2016 0-1-1 0.00% -550


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 78-94-6 45.35% -12700


O/U Picks 74-100-5 42.53% -18000


Triple Plays:..... 23 - 33 - 2


NFC EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM.....0 - 1......... ( NY GIANTS THUMPS PHILLY )
NFL GAME OF THE YEAR.................0 - 0 -1 ( CAROLINA PUSHES WITH RAMS )
TOTAL OF THE DAY .......................1 - 0.....( INDY/GB GOES OVER 53 )
NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 1.....( RAIDERS STOMP BRONCOS )




THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


CLE at BAL 08:25 PM


CLE +7.5*****


U 44.0 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Ravens keep Browns winless, 28-7
November 10, 2016


BALTIMORE (AP) The Baltimore Ravens gained sole possession of first place in the AFC North at the expense of the winless Cleveland Browns, who reached a historic low point in franchise history.


Joe Flacco threw three touchdown passes, and the Ravens used a strong second half to notch a 28-7 victory Thursday night.


Baltimore trailed at halftime before gaining control during a third quarter in which Flacco went 10 for 12 with two scores.


The Ravens (5-4) have won two in a row following a four-game losing streak. Baltimore is the only team in the division above .500.


Cleveland (0-10) has opened a season with 10 consecutive losses for the first time since joining the NFL in 1950. The Browns have dropped 11 straight on the road since winning in Baltimore in October 2015.


The defeat left Cleveland's all-time record at 461-461-10. The Browns have never been below .500.


Down 7-6 at halftime, the Ravens moved 64 yards on their first possession of the third quarter to take a 13-7 lead. Flacco connected with five different receivers on the drive, closing with a 4-yard touchdown pass to Darren Waller.


Browns coach Hue Jackson then opted to insert Josh McCown at quarterback after watching starter Cody Kessler go 10 for 17 for 94 yards. McCown's second pass was intercepted, giving Baltimore the ball at the Cleveland 40 with a chance to break the game open.


The Ravens moved to the 15 before Flacco heaved an ill-advised throw into the end zone that was picked off by Joe Haden.


Baltimore's next drive, however, was run on a short field. After a 32-yard punt gave the Ravens the ball at the Cleveland 43, Flacco threw an 11-yard touchdown pass to Steve Smith, and a 2-point conversion made it 21-7.


A 27-yard touchdown throw to Breshad Perriman sealed it with 6:21 remaining and marked the 10th straight game in which the Browns yielded at least 25 points.


Flacco went 30 for 41 for 296 yards and two interceptions.


McCown went 6 for 13 for 59 yards. He was picked off twice and lost a fumble when hit by Terrell Suggs, who was playing with a torn biceps.


''Adrenaline. Adrenaline was working tonight,'' Suggs said.


Jackson said Kessler will start the Browns' next game, at home against Pittsburgh on Nov. 20.


The first time these teams played this season, the Ravens had to rally from 20 points down to pull out for a 25-20 win. Baltimore needed another comeback in this one, though the deficit wasn't nearly as imposing.


After their first three series produced two punts and an interception , the Ravens gained possession at the Cleveland 48 following a punt and used a 25-yard field goal to take a 3-0 lead.


Kessler followed with a 25-yard touchdown pass to tight end Seth DeValve, and at that point the Browns looked very little like a team that hadn't won a game in 11 months.


NOT EVEN CLOSE

It was the first time this season that the Ravens had a game decided by more than eight points. It was their most lopsided victory since a 20-10 win over Cleveland on Dec. 28, 2014.


QUOTABLE


Browns: ''It's fair to say we didn't expect to be here, but it's also fair to say we expect to grow from this,'' McCown said.


Ravens: ''Sizz is a once-in-a-generation type player,'' Baltimore safety Eric Weddle said about Suggs, who had a sack and a forced fumble.


SMITH MOVES UP


Smith had five catches for 60 yards and moved into eighth place on the NFL career list with 14,349 yards receiving. He passed Reggie Wayne, and now is in pursuit of No. 7 Marvin Harrison (14,580).


INJURIES


Browns: CB Jamar Taylor (groin) was inactive.


Ravens: LG Alex Lewis injured his right ankle in the third quarter, was carted off the field and did not return. X-rays were negative. ... C Jeremy Zuttah injured his right ankle on Smith's TD.


UP NEXT


Browns: Host the Steelers, the first meeting of the season between the AFC North rivals.


Ravens: Travel to Dallas on Nov. 20 to face the Cowboys, a team they're 4-0 against since the series began in 2000.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s six-pack




My six favorite Bill Murray movies:




6) Quick Change– Saw this on my first date with my future ex-wife.




5) St Vincent– Any time a guy takes a little kid he is babysitting to the racetrack, the movie has a chance.




4) Caddyshack– This was more of a Rodney/Chevy Chase movie.




3) Stripes– The late Harold Rams should’ve acted in more movies.




2) Meatballs– Morty, the guy who ran the summer camp, later wound up as a judge on Law and Order.




1) Lost in Translation– Underrated movie with Scarlett Johansson.




Friday’s List of 13: Bottom 5, Top 8 in the NFL




32) Browns— Cleveland is 0-10, but not the only team that has trailed all its games in 4th quarter. 5-4 Lions have trailed all nine of their games in 4th quarter- they easily could be 0-9, or 8-1.




31) 49ers— Allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of their last seven games, which doesn’t happen very often.




30) Jaguars— Ran ball better last week than they have all season but teams that turn ball over four times almost never win. Host a Houston team this week that is 0-3 on the road.




29) Bears— They should start playing better with Cutler back at QB and Bucs-Titans-49ers on schedule in next month. For what it is worth, Jay Cutler grew up in a town called Santa Claus, IN; wonder what the high school’s mascot is?




28) Rams— I let this slide Monday because there were so many other things to be annoyed about, but Rams’ only TD against the Panthers came on a 4th-and-goal play from the 10 in last 0:40 when LA trailed 13-3. Going for it on 4th-and-goal from the 10, when you had an easy FG and you needed 10 points, was coaching malpractice.




Just because the play worked doesn’t make it a good decision; in a lot of ways, this ticked me off more than losing the damn game.




8) Broncos— Wade Phillips feels better, may be back on sidelines for this week’s game; if his defense doesn’t create opportunities for the Denver offense, it’ll be a long second half of the season— Broncos’ offense isn’t very good.




7) Giants— One of three teams (Cards, Jags) that haven’t scored a point yet on their first drive of the game. Wentz threw INTs on Eagles’ first two drives, so Giants got TDs on drives of 31-30 yards on their 2nd/3rd drives of the game, but when the coach is also the playcaller, shouldn’t they do better on their first drive?




6) Seahawks— Long trip east to Foxboro on a short week Sunday nite; they play Patriots for first time since their Super Bowl loss to New England. Seahawks’ rushing attempts in last three games: 19-17-12- they need more balance on offense. They also need a more mobile Wilson.




5) Chiefs— Have NFL’s best record (17-3) in their last 20 games, but only one of those wins was a playoff game. Alex Smith is back at QB this week, which should improve their play in red zone.




4) Falcons— 6-3 with bye week in Week 11, so they should be well-rested for stretch run, with little bit of a soft schedule, other than the KC game. Will Kyle Shanahan be a head coach elsewhere in ’17?




3) Raiders— Last time they were in the playoffs was 2002, when they lost Super Bowl to Tampa Bay. They’ll be there this year. First game after their bye is against the Texans on a Monday night in Mexico City.




2) Cowboys— If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it; at 7-1, no reason for Dallas to change QBs; they seem to be set there for the next 10-12 years. Interesting game in Pittsburgh this week, against the banged-up Steelers.




1— Patriots— After playing Seattle this week, their next three games are against 49ers-Jets-Rams; they’ll have to guard against boredom, playing those three stiffs in a row.




I’m not kidding; closest game they’ve had since Brady came back is 11 points- you need to play in close games during season to tighten up for the playoffs, when games will be close.

 

[CNOTES]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 10 NFL lines are going to move


Early betting favors the Giants, so NY backers might want to pounce before heavy action out of the Northeast moves the line.

Game to bet on now


Cincinnati at New York Giants (-2.5)


Three straight losses (Washington, Minnesota, Green Bay) resulted in some analysts leaving the streaky Giants for road kill early last month, but things are peachy again in Gotham after three consecutive victories. And now New York (5-3 and two games behind the Cowboys in the NFC East) begins a stretch of three very winnable games against sub-.500 competition, starting with the enigmatic Bengals at home. The Bengals have four losses against what passes as the iron of the league in today’s NFL (New England, Dallas, Pittsburgh and Denver), but could have their hands full on Sunday. Early betting favors the Giants, so NY backers might want to pounce before heavy action out of the Northeast moves the line to 3.


Game to wait on


Los Angeles at New York Jets (-2.5)


It’s a little too early to throw in the towel, but Jets fans have a right to ask just what the heck is going on with their team. Matt Forte was supposed to power a strong running game that made up for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s QB deficiencies, and the defense was supposed to be rock solid. Instead, the Jets are 3-6 SU and have given up the most points (and scored the fewest) in the AFC East. More bad news – the Jets have two games left against the Patriots. Miami and Buffalo have “catapulted” the Jets by playing .500 ball. NY is not sure about Fitzpatrick this weekend, but reportedly he’ll play if his ailing knee responds to treatment. Bettors might want to hang on a bit, because backup Bryce Petty has taken only a few snaps in his career.

Total to watch


San Francisco at Arizona (48)


Over players need to be careful here. Arizona has struggled to find any kind of consistent offense this season, but somehow the Cardinals have put together the league’s No. 1 defense (statistically, anyway). San Francisco’s offense, meanwhile, too often seems like it’s moving uphill. The 49ers’ best shot in this one is to establish a ground attack and shorten the game, then try to make a few plays in the fourth quarter. The total has already been bet down from 49, and could go even a bit lower.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 10


Thurs – Nov. 10


Cleveland at Baltimore, 8:25 PM ET
Cleveland: 5-15 ATS as an underdog
Baltimore: 16-5 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog




Sun – Nov. 13


Houston at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM ET
Houston: 8-1 ATS as a favorite
Jacksonville: 7-19 ATS after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game


Kansas City at Carolina, 1:00 PM ET
Kansas City: 11-24 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7
Carolina: 14-5 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Denver at New Orleans, 1:00 PM ET
Denver: 17-4 OVER after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game
New Orleans: 4-14 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7

Los Angeles at NY Jets, 1:00 PM ET
Los Angeles: 7-22 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
New York: 8-2 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Atlanta at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM ET
Atlanta: 37-57 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game
Philadelphia: 47-29 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

Minnesota at Washington, 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota: 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Washington: 6-17 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game


Green Bay at Tennessee, 1:00 PM ET
Green Bay: 32-16 ATS in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Tennessee: 1-9 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games

Chicago at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM ET
Chicago: 1-5 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
Tampa Bay: 6-0 ATS after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored


Miami at San Diego, 4:05 PM ET
Miami: 17-5 ATS in road games off in 2 straight division games
San Diego: 4-16 ATS in home games after allowing 35 points or more last game

San Francisco at Arizona, 4:25 PM ET
San Francisco: 0-6 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Arizona: 23-10 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game

Dallas at Pittsburgh, 4:25 PM ET
Dallas: 6-17 ATS in road games after a win by 21 or more points
Pittsburgh: 15-2 ATS in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite

Seattle at New England, 8:30 PM ET
Seattle: 19-27 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
New England: 15-6 ATS off 1 or more straight overs




Mon – Nov. 14


Cincinnati at NY Giants, 8:30 PM ET
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
New York: 62-39 UNDER off a home win

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack


NFL trends with Week 10 hovering on the horizon……


— Cleveland is 6-15-1 in its last 22 games as an underdog.


— Dallas Cowboys won/covered their last seven games.


— Washington covered nine of its last 12 games.


— Buccaneers are 3-9 vs spread in their last 12 games.


— Jaguars are 6-13-1 in last 20 games as a home underdog.


— Cincinnati is 21-10-3 vs NFC teams; Giants are 5-1 vs the AFC.


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NFL Week 10 lines that make you go hmmm...


Dallas is at Pittsburgh in Week 10, getting 2.5 points from sportsbooks. Find out why this number is making this Vegas oddsmaker go "hmmm..."


Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-10, 45)


The total in this game caught my eye for this AFC North rivalry on Thursday Night Football. As a 10-point favorite, one may assume the game will be controlled by the dominating team. Baltimore showed quite well versus Pittsburgh this past week, particularly its defense scheme. I don’t see how the Ravens won’t continue that trend against Cleveland.


They’re averaging less than 40 points per game and with the abbreviated work week, we don’t really see the teams trying to run up the score in this intra-divisional contest. Cleveland doesn’t have the firepower to suddenly chalk up too many points against a premier defensive unit. I can’t envision this game producing six touchdowns and a field goal just to tie the total. Any scoreless quarter will make it that much tougher to achieve.


Thursday nights haven’t produced the kind of excitement we usually feel for weekday games. At this point, we see both teams thinking about the extended time off after the game is over than playing full-tilt football. Go with the Under and watch your favorite hockey team instead on another channel.


Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1, 42.5)


On the surface, this game looks like a first place team facing a last place team at near pick ‘em – an easy play on the small favorite. But there are some red flags with that assumption that has us going with the home dog in this one.


First, Houston has had a favorable schedule to this point and it’s been all or nothing when it comes to where it plays. At 5-3, all five wins came at home and all three losses on the road. In those three losses, Houston has been outscored 85-22. Conversely, Jacksonville has played a much tougher schedule and has been competitive in its home losses to Green Bay and Baltimore and took a tough loss from Oakland besides the one lone win over Indianapolis.


No one outside of WR DeAndre Hopkins scares me offensively for Houston. And although, the Jaguars are missing that big-play threat, the team has enough results to read between the lines in this game. I also feel the Jaguars will have the incentive on their side. One win here against the division leader and that tightens things up significantly. It’s the perfect storm for the underdogs to prevail this weekend.


Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 48)


The Dolphins head into this game off two good wins against divisional rivals Buffalo and New York. And after a disastrous start, the Chargers are winning with some regularity and have played a tougher schedule than Miami. I made the Chargers closer to -6 which makes this an attractive take on the home favorite.


The Dolphins just completed a four-game home stretch with solid results but have not fared well on the road this season. Their losses to Seattle (second game of the season when they weren’t playing well) and a Brady-less Patriots team was followed by a collapse in Cincinnati in their last road game.


San Diego has found its rhythm with three wins in the past four games against the likes of Denver, Atlanta, and Tennessee. The Bolts stand 3-1 at home and they’ve gone toe-to-toe with the most explosive offenses in the league in both wins and losses.


This one won’t be a runaway by any means but the angles of success and failure favor the Chargers. San Diego also can look ahead to a weekend off after this game’s completion with their bye week coming up so they can really let it all hang out in this one. The incentive is with the home team here and we like that angle the best.

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 50)


I’m not quite sure what the stronger play is: taking Dallas or taking the Under in this game? All of this focuses on the Steelers lack of scoring the past three games (14, 15 and 16 points) and the terrific defense by Dallas this season. I made this closer to pick with a total of 45 to 46 at best. I’m more inclined to take the Under here as both teams can bring the defense and I find it hard that this game will see more than seven touchdowns and a field goal in the allotted possessions.


Pittsburgh has only gone over 50 twice this season and has been Under in six of its last seven games. Dallas has been over 50 once (and it took overtime to do it) so far this season. Any possessions ending in field goals will take that many more possessions and scoring results to push this Over the total. Not that it can’t be done, but the way the teams are playing at this time, 50 points seems like an awful high total to achieve Sunday.


A big game for both teams, the hype for such a contest usually will bring out the best in defensive play early. That will dictate the rest of the game’s flow. If it’s a close contest throughout, expect time management to devour a ton of clock with field goals being the premium score. I’m not sure how this one got out there so high for the opener but I just don’t see it happening. Stick with the Under.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 10


Thursday's game


Cleveland (0-9) @ Baltimore (4-4)- Ravens (-6.5) trailed 20-0 in Cleveland in Week 2, rallied to win 25-20; they’re 15-2 in last 17 series games, 7-1 in last eight played here- Browns lost 33-30 in OT here LY. Baltimore ended 4-game skid with win over Steelers LW, are atop NFC North despite 4-4 record; they are 1-6-1 in last eight games as a home favorite, 1-2 this year. Winless Browns have been outscored 148-51 in second half of games; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 19-6-11-2-14 points. Ravens have only four offensive TDs in last four games; their only score LW was on 95-yard pass in 1st quarter. Browns allowed 610 yards on ground in last three games. Over is 6-2 in last eight Cleveland games, 3-1 in Ravens’ last four. Home side is 4-0 vs spread in AFC North divisional games.



Sunday's games


Houston (5-3) @ Jacksonville (2-6)— Texans are 0-3 on road, 5-0 at home, losing on foreign soil by combined score of 84-22, albeit vs Pats-Denver-Vikings, all winning teams; they’ve had only two takeaways in last six games (-8). Home side is 7-0-1 vs spread in their games. Jaguars ran ball for 205 yards LW in Arrowhead under their new OC, after averaging 73.9 rushing yards/game under old OC. Jax was -4 in turnovers LW or they might’ve upset Chiefs (outgained KC 449-231)— they’re 0-3 at home, losing by 4-2-17 points. Jaguars have zero takeaways in their last four games (-10). Texans are 9-7-1 under O’Brien in games with spread of 3 or less points; Jaguars are 6-12 under Bradley in such games, 2-2 this year. Houston is 9-2 in last 11 series games, winning last four, three by 11+ points- they won four of last five visits here. Texans won four of last five post-bye games.


Kansas City (6-2) @ Carolina (3-5)— Panthers are 2-0 since bye week, allowing only 83 rushing yards on 27 carries; they’re 12-29 on 3rd down last two games, after being 4-19 in two games before that. KC struggled in red zone LW (16 points on 4 drives) wit backup QB Foles playing, but is 4-0 since bye; they’re 4-8 in last 12 games as a home favorite, 1-3 this year, winning home games by 6-21-6-5 points. Chiefs are 3-2 in series; home side won three of last four meetings. Teams split two meetings here, with last visit in ’08. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 2-5 vs spread. AFC West road underdogs are 6-3. Six of last seven KC games stayed under total; over is 5-3 in Carolina games. Chiefs’ last three games were all decided by 6 or less points; three of last four Carolina games were decided by exactly three points.


Denver (6-3) @ New Orleans (4-4)— Saints rallied to 4-4 after an 0-3 start; they’re 2-2 at home, with dogs covering all four games (average total, 67.5). NO has 15 TDs on 42 drives at home; unless Denver comes up with turnovers and creates short field for their defense, tough to imagine Siemian matching points with Brees here. Broncos are 2-3 in last five games after a 6-0 start; they had only 90 rushing yards in last two games combined. In last three games, Denver is 11-37 on third down (29.7%), after being 29-77 (37.7%) in first six games- they won only previous game on artificial turf, in Week 3 at Cincy. Broncos’ average starting field position LW was their own 19, worst in NFL- they are 8-2 vs New Orleans, winning last four meetings, three by 15+ points. NFL teams are 16-9 vs spread this season in their pre-bye games.


Rams (3-5) @ Jets (3-6)— Two teams with QB issues. LA lost its last four games, scoring one TD on its last 22 drives; Rams are 4-12-1 vs spread in last 17 games where number was 3 or less points. Not sure if Fitzpatrick (knee) or Petty (would be 1st start) gets nod at QB for Jets, who scored 26 pts/game the last three weeks. New York scored to go ahead LW in Miami with under 6:00 left, looked ready to win 3rd game in row, but Dolphins ran kick back for game-winning TD. Neither team has led at halftime since Week 2. Jets won last two meetings 47-3/27-13; Rams are 4-2 vs Jets in last six visits here, but last visit was 2008. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 2-7 vs spread, 2-3 on road. AFC East favorites are 6-2, 3-2 at home. Under is 5-3 in Rams’ games, 4-1 in Jets’ last five.

Falcons (6-3) @ Eagles (4-4)— Atlanta is 4-1 on road, with only road loss 26-24 in Seattle- they scored nine TDs on 17 drives in last two games. Philly lost four of last five games after 3-0 start; Wentz threw picks on first two drives LW, as Giants led 14-0 5:07 into game- their late rally fell just short. Eagles are 3-0 at home, winning by 14-31-11 points; they’ve allowed only two TDs on 31 drives at home this year (under 3-0). Atlanta won last three series games, by 4-13-2 points; they’ve lost six of last seven visits here, but won last one, in 2012. Over is 7-1 in Falcon games, 4-1 in last five Philly games. NFL teams are 16-9 vs spread this season in their pre-bye games. NFC East non-divisional home teams are 7-2 vs spread; NFC South road teams are 8-2. Atlanta has 11 TD plays of 20+ plays this season, most in the league.

Vikings (5-3) @ Redskins (4-3-1)— Minnesota is 0-3 since its bye, its OC quit, its starting OT’s are hurt; Vikings scored 4 TD’s on 29 drives in last three games, scoring 26 points on last ten red zone drives- they were outscored 34-9 in first half last three games, with no TDs. Minnesota is +12 in turnovers for season but has only one takeaway in last couple games. Washington is 2-2 at home, with all four games going over total; average total in those games is 50.5. Redskins are 8-8 vs spread under Gruden, in games with spread of 3 or less points; Vikings are 14-6 in such games under Zimmer. NFL teams coming off a bye this year are 9-5-2 vs spread this season, but Washington is 1-7 in last eight post-bye games, losing last three by 15-20-17 points. Zimmer/Gruden spent time together as coordinators in Cincinnati.


Packers (4-4) @ Titans (4-5)— Tennessee has allowed seven TDs on offense/special teams this year, two more than anyone else in NFL (Jets). Titans are 2-3 at home, with last three home games going over; they scored 32.3 pts/game the last three weeks but lost two of three. Green Bay scored 58 points in last two games but lost both of them, getting drilled at home by Colts LW. Packers are 1-2 on road this year, with only win in opener at Jax (27-23, -4.5); Pack is 7-6 in last 13 games as road favorites, 0-2 this year. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-8 vs spread, 1-2 on road; AFC South underdogs are 5-8, 1-3 at home. Tennessee is 4-12-1 vs spread in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points; Packers are 6-10 in last 16. Last six Tennessee games went over total; over is 2-1 in Green Bay games.


Bears (2-6) @ Buccaneers (3-5)— Tampa Bay got whacked at home LW, is now 17-43 in its last 60 home games, 0-4 this year. Bucs allowed 34.3 pts/game at home this year, gave up 140 rushing yards/game their last four games. Bears are 0-4 as road underdogs this year, losing on foreign soil by 9-14-6-16 points. Chicago is 7-3 in last ten post-bye games, but lost last two, by 55-14/23-20 scores. Bears won five of last six series games, winning last three by 6-8-5 points; Bears won three of last four visits here. Five of last six series games were decided by 6 or less points. NFC South non-divisional home teams are 3-6 vs spread this season; NFC North road teams are 5-6. Last three Tampa Bay games went over total; four of last five Chicago games stayed under. Bucs were outscored in second half in 6 of last 7 games, 27-14/23-14 in last two.


Dolphins (4-4) @ Chargers (4-5)— Miami won its last three games, running ball for 205 yds/game with no turnovers (+4); Fish were -7 in turnovers their first five games- this is their first road game since Sept 29. Dolphins are 0-3 on road this year, losing by 2-7-15 points; they’re 5-9 in last 14 games as a road underdog, 1-2 this year. Chargers won three of last four games, covered four of last five; they converted 21-41 third down plays in last three games. SD is 12-16 in last 28 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year. Home side won last six series games; Miami lost last three visits here, by 10-10-16 points. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 5-5 vs spread; AFC East road underdogs are 3-5. Five of last six San Diego games went over the total.


49ers (1-7) @ Cardinals (3-4-1)— Arizona (-3.5) won first meeting this year 33-21 in Santa Clara, with first two TDs coming on drives of 21-14 yards. Redbirds won four of last five series games, winning 23-14/47-7 in last two played here- they’re 2-2-1 SU at home this year, 2-3 as a home favorite, with only wins 40-7/28-3 over Bucs/Jets. 49ers lost last seven games, allowing 33+ points in six of them; they’re 0-3 as a road underdog this year, losing away games by 19-19-29 points. Niners allowed 100+-yard rusher in each of last seven games, good news for Arizona RB Johnson’s fantasy owners. Cardinals are 2-4 in last six post-bye games, but were a dog in five of those six games. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 13-13-1 vs spread. Six of 49ers’ last seven games went over total.


Cowboys (7-1) @ Steelers (4-4)— Dallas won/covered its last seven games, scoring 30.5 pts/game in last four; Cowboys are 4-0 on road, with last three of those games staying under total. Dallas ran ball for 186.5 yards/game in last six games, taking heat off rookie QB Prescott, who averaged 8+ yards/pass attempt in five of last seven games. Steelers lost last three games, scoring 15 pts/game; they were outscored 40-18 in first half of those games. Big Ben was rusty in his return in Baltimore LW. Pitt is 3-1 at home, with only loss to Pantriots, when Jones played QB. NFC East non-divisional road teams are 5-3 vs spread; AFC North home teams are 4-6. Romo is healthy again, but why would you take out a QB who is 7-1? Four of last five Cowboy games, six of last seven Steeler games stayed under total.


Seahawks (5-2-1) @ Patriots (7-1)— New England is 4-0 since Brady came back, with all four wins by 11+ points. Seattle scored total of one offensive TD in its tie/losses- they scored 15 in five wins. First meeting since Super Bowl two years ago, game lost by Seahawks when they threw from 1-yard line in last 1:00 and ball was picked. Consider that Carroll was fired so Patriots could hire Belichick- this game has to have extra meaning for him. New England won 47-20/30-6 in last two post-bye games; long trip east on short week for Seahawks after beating Bills in tough Monday night home game. Seahawks won four of last five visits here, but last visit was 12 years ago- last three series games were decided by 4 or less points. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread; NFC West underdogs are 2-7.




Monday's game


Bengals (3-4-1) @ Giants (5-3)— Giants won/covered last three games; they’re 3-1 at home, 2-2 as home favorite, winning by 3-4-5 points, with 29-27 loss to Redskins. Four of NY’s last six TDs came on drives of less than 40 yards or were scored by defense. Bengals lost last three road games, by 8-14-18 points; their only road win was here in Week 1 vs Jets, after they had been 1-12 in Swamp Stadium, 1-3 vs Jets, 0-9 vs Giants. Home side won last nine series games. Cincy is 0-2 as an underdog this year, after being 7-2-1 as road dog last two years- they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight post-bye games. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 2-8. Last three Bengal games went over total, as did three of four Giant home games.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel


Week 10


Sunday, November 13


Seattle @ New England


Game 273-274
November 13, 2016 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
141.159
New England
140.540
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+7 1/2); Over


Dallas @ Pittsburgh


Game 271-272
November 13, 2016 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
134.262
Pittsburgh
140.069
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 6
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-2); Under


San Francisco @ Arizona


Game 269-270
November 13, 2016 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
124.391
Arizona
130.911
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 6 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 13 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+13 1/2); Over


Miami @ San Diego


Game 267-268
November 13, 2016 @ 4:05 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Miami
131.357
San Diego
137.197
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 6
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 3 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(-3 1/2); Over


Chicago @ Tampa Bay


Game 265-266
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
130.191
Tampa Bay
127.390
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 3
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1
46
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+1); Under


Green Bay @ Tennessee


Game 263-264
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
135.441
Tennessee
125.811
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 9 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 2 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-2 1/2); Over


Minnesota @ Washington

Game 261-262
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
128.926
Washington
135.580
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 6 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 3
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-3); Under


Atlanta @ Philadelphia


Game 259-260
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
136.090
Philadelphia
138.693
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 2 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
Pick
50
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
Over


Los Angeles @ NY Jets

Game 257-258
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
129.964
NY Jets
128.823
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 1
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(+2); Under


Denver @ New Orleans


Game 255-256
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Denver
132.710
New Orleans
137.209
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 4 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 2 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-2 1/2); Under


Kansas City @ Carolina


Game 253-254
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
136.593
Carolina
134.084
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 2 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+3); Over


Houston @ Jacksonville


Game 251-252
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Houston
126.105
Jacksonville
129.862
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 4
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+1 1/2); Under




Monday, November 14


Cincinnati @ NY Giants


Game 275-276
November 14, 2016 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
130.585
NY Giants
136.261
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 5 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 2
47
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(-2); Under

 

[CNOTES]

NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:


10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
11/03/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
11/06/2016 13-8-1 61.90% +2100
11/07/2016 0-1-1 0.00% -550
11/10/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50


WLT PCT UNITS


ATS Picks 78-95-6 45.09% -13250


O/U Picks 75-100-5 42.86% -17500


Triple Plays:..... 24 - 34 - 2


NFC EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM.....0 - 1......... ( NY GIANTS THUMPS PHILLY )
NFL GAME OF THE YEAR.................0 - 0 -1 ( CAROLINA PUSHES WITH RAMS )
TOTAL OF THE DAY .......................1 - 0.....( INDY/GB GOES OVER 53 )
NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 1.....( RAIDERS STOMP BRONCOS )

 

[CNOTES]

THE SUPER CONTEST - FORMERLY THE HILTON CONTEST


Still the most prestigious handicapping championship in Las Vegas./' We will again list the top five selections weekly (by number of handicappers


Week five


5. Punters -3 417 Handicappers


4 Packers -2 12 521 Handicappers


3. Falcons Pk 538 Handicappers


2. Saints -2 1/2 550 Handicappers


1, Steelers -2 1.2 671 Handicappers


The least popular pick for Super Contest handicappers on Sunday is San Francisco +1 1/2 with only 101 handicappers on the 4f9ers.




------------------------------


SUNDAY NFL TRENDS


Houston at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM ET
Houston: 8-1 ATS as a favorite
Jacksonville: 7-19 ATS after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game


Kansas City at Carolina, 1:00 PM ET
Kansas City: 11-24 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7
Carolina: 14-5 ATS after playing their last game on the road


Denver at New Orleans, 1:00 PM ET
Denver: 17-4 OVER after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game
New Orleans: 4-14 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7


Los Angeles at NY Jets, 1:00 PM ET
Los Angeles: 7-22 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
New York: 8-2 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games


Atlanta at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM ET
Atlanta: 37-57 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game
Philadelphia: 47-29 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs


Minnesota at Washington, 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota: 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Washington: 6-17 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game


Green Bay at Tennessee, 1:00 PM ET
Green Bay: 32-16 ATS in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Tennessee: 1-9 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games

Chicago at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM ET
Chicago: 1-5 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
Tampa Bay: 6-0 ATS after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored


Miami at San Diego, 4:05 PM ET
Miami: 17-5 ATS in road games off in 2 straight division games
San Diego: 4-16 ATS in home games after allowing 35 points or more last game


San Francisco at Arizona, 4:25 PM ET
San Francisco: 0-6 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Arizona: 23-10 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game


Dallas at Pittsburgh, 4:25 PM ET
Dallas: 6-17 ATS in road games after a win by 21 or more points
Pittsburgh: 15-2 ATS in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite


Seattle at New England, 8:30 PM ET
Seattle: 19-27 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
New England: 15-6 ATS off 1 or more straight overs

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 10
November 11, 2016


Las Vegas sports books took so much sharp action on the Browns inflated number Thursday night that they were able to withstand all the NBA favorite parlays attached to the Ravens and show a profit for the day. The public has been rolling with a few teams every week, and betting against the Browns has been part of the wining formula.

"I saw a tweet come out last night after the Browns loss that if you just bet against the Browns and 49ers along with betting on the Patriots and Cowboys, you would be 29-5 against-the-spread," CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal said Friday afternoon. "I didn't believe it, but I checked it out and its true. That's incredible."

The books avoided getting burned on the terrible Browns again by increasing the spread by nearly 30 percent of what it should have been and the plan worked. One down and three to go with the most popular popular teams and there is reason to suggest Sunday's Week 10 action might turn out better than the past three weeks.

"This weekend we have a good chance with the Cowboys and Patriots both playing tougher competition," Simbal said. 'Really, the entire card is outstanding with some great match-ups. It looks like the best lineup of the season so far."

The two teams that are each 7-1 ATS are still getting the most action at Simbal's seven books across town.

"The Cowboys and Patriots have been getting all the action so far," he said. "We opened the Steelers -3 and have gone down to -2.5 with mostly just smaller square action taking the Cowboys. When when went to -2.5, I thought we might get some sharp play on the Steelers, but it hasn't happened.

"We have 10-times more action on the Patriots than the Seahawks. We opened the Patriots -6.5 and it lasted only a minute until going to -7 and we're at -7.5 now and still no Seahawks action. This number can only go up. It may take +8 or +8.5 for us to get Seattle money."

William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada reported that 34 percent of all action wagered on the NFL this week has been on the Seahawks-Patriots game, and 75 percent of that action has been on the Patriots and 85 percent of the tickets written have also been on them.

"Another game we're not in a great spot with is the Falcons," Simbal said. "We had taken a large bet on the Eagles at pick 'em and as soon as it went to Eagles -1, they totally hit the Falcons hard pushing them to a -1.5 favorite. The Falcons are also one of the favorite public plays."

The most feared public parlay of Sunday for the books has the Patriots, Cowboys, Falcons and Packers, which the books can't make up when paying out 10/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $1,000). And they also have carryover risk the Ravens tied into those teams meaning 20/1 payouts will be ready to cash with 5-teamers if they all cover.

"The Broncos-Saints match-up looks like a fun game," Simbal said. "We opened the Saints -2 and sharps laid it and also -2.5, but since we've been at -3, we've had great two-way action."

The other half of the ugly-two is the 49ers, and like the Browns Thursday, the price is over-inflated. But betting against San Francisco pays off as they've failed to cover its last seven games.

"They're not betting the Cardinals (-14) yet. It's actually the least wagered game of the day, but it's a late start and it'll be popular among the three starting after the 1:00 p.m. ET games."

Simbal's also had action on two crummy match-ups.

"A couple of the not-so-attractive games on the day have received some attention with sharps moving the Bears from pick 'em to -2 (-120) and the Jaguars from +1 to -1 (-115)."

Things always turn in favor of the sports books as they increase spreads, but the public has a hot hand right now rolling the dice and they have no fear of any inflated number.

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 10
November 12, 2016




NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Vikings are 13-0 ATS (9.81 ppg) since Sep 15, 2013 as a road dog with a total under 46.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Titans are 0-14-1 ATS (-6.57 ppg) since Dec 20, 2009 after they scored 10+ points more than their season-to date average.


NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Steelers are 7-0 OU (11.00 ppg) since Dec 08, 2013 after a road loss where Ben Roethlisberger threw at least 35 passes.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Eagles are 12-0 OU (11.92 ppg) since Dec 11, 2005 at home off a game as a dog where they suffered a loss and ATS loss.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Chiefs are 0-10 OU (-13.15 ppg) since Dec 16, 2012 after a game where they had no more than 15 first downs.


NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:


-- The Packers are 11-0 ATS on the road after a loss in which they outgained their opponent.

 

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 10
November 12, 2016


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.


Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.


The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.


This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.


Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9


Week 10


1) Pittsburgh -2.5 (671)


2) New Orleans -2.5 (550)


3) Atlanta PK (538)


4) Green Bay -2.5 (521)


5) Carolina -3 (417)


SUPERCONTEST WEEK 10 MATCHUPS & ODDS


Away Team Selections Home Team Selections


Cleveland (+9.5) 169 Baltimore (-9.5) 39


Houston (-1.5) 304 Jacksonville (+1.5) 406


Kansas City (+3) 282 Carolina (-3) 417


Denver (+2.5) 272 New Orleans (-2.5) 550


Los Angeles (+1.5) 134 N.Y. Jets (-1.5) 249


Atlanta (PK) 538 Philadelphia (PK) 408


Minnesota (+3) 321 Washington (-3) 374


Green Bay (-2.5) 521 Tennessee (+2.5) 164


Chicago (PK) 320 Tampa Bay (PK) 310


Miami (+4) 226 San Diego (-4) 412


San Francisco (+13.5) 101 Arizona (-13.5) 259


Dallas (+2.5) 356 Pittsburgh (-2.5) 671


Seattle (+7.5) 373 New England (-7.5) 353


Cincinnati (+2) 376 N.Y. Giants (-2) 240


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 6-14 30%
6 1-3-1 5-19-1 21%
7 3-2 8-21-1 28%
8 3-2 11-23-1 32%
9 2-3 13-26-1 33%

 

[CNOTES]

Pick Six - Week 10
November 12, 2016


Week 9 Record: 3-3 SU, 3-2-1 ATS
Overall Record: 27-27 SU, 24-28-1 ATS


Review: The Cowboys and Giants came through as favorites, while the Colts cashed outright as a road underdog at Green Bay. The Rams pushed in a three-point loss to the Panthers, while the Vikings fell in overtime to the Lions.


Chiefs at Panthers (-3, 44) – 1:00 PM EST


Kansas City
Record: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS, 6-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1


The Chiefs split their first four games of the season, but Kansas City is riding a four-game winning streak, capped off by an ugly home victory over Jacksonville last Sunday. Nick Foles started in place of the injured Alex Smith at quarterback, as Foles led the Chiefs to the end zone only once, while Kansas City needed four field goals in a 19-14 win as seven-point favorites. Smith is expected back under center on Sunday as the Chiefs are listed as an underdog for the second time this season, losing to the Steelers in Week 4 in their other opportunity as a ‘dog.


Carolina
Record: 3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 45/1


The Panthers lost just once in the 2015 regular season, but won only one game through the first six contests this season. Carolina is looking to make a run by beating Arizona and Los Angeles the last two weeks, as the Panthers are facing their second AFC West opponent this season. The first interconference game didn’t work out for Carolina in a 21-20 opening week loss at Denver, as Carolina has cashed once in its last four chances against AFC opponents at home since 2014.


Best Bet: Kansas City +3


Broncos at Saints (-3, 49) – 1:00 PM EST


Denver
Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1


The Broncos remain in the mix for the AFC West title in spite of last Sunday’s loss at Oakland. Denver starts Week 10 one game behind Oakland in the division after a 30-20 defeat at Coliseum as the Broncos were outrushed, 218-33. Denver is making its first trip to the Superdome since 2004 as the Broncos dropped 530 yards on New Orleans in its previous matchup in 2012 in a 34-14 blowout at Sports Authority Field.


New Orleans
Record: 4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 85/1


Following an 0-3 start, the Saints have come back to life by winning four of its past five games. New Orleans dominated San Francisco last Sunday as five-point favorites, 41-23, while racking up 571 yards on the 49ers’ awful defense. The Saints have covered five consecutive games, including the last two in the role of a home underdog. New Orleans has struggled in the home favorite role at 0-2 SU/ATS with losses to Oakland and Atlanta, while losing four of its past six contests against AFC foes.


Best Bet: Denver +3


Falcons (-1 ½, 50) at Eagles – 1:00 PM EST


Atlanta
Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS, 8-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 13/1


The Falcons have rebounded from a two-game skid to win each of their last two contests to sit atop of the NFC South at 6-3. Atlanta dominated Tampa Bay in Week 9 as 4 ½-point favorites, 43-28 to eclipse the 40-point mark for the third time this season. Matt Ryan tossed at least three touchdown passes for the fifth time in 2016, including the third instance on the road against the Bucs. Although Atlanta covered last week, the Falcons own a 2-10 ATS record as a favorite since the start of last season.


Philadelphia
Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1


The Eagles should be thrilled to be back at Lincoln Financial Field after losing each of the past two weeks inside the division to the Cowboys and Giants. Philadelphia has lost four of five road games, but has compiled a 3-0 home record, including victories as an underdog against Pittsburgh and Minnesota. Carson Wentz threw for a career-high 364 yards in last Sunday’s 28-23 loss at New York, but was intercepted twice. The rookie of North Dakota State owns a 5/2 touchdown to interception ratio at home, while the Eagles haven’t allowed more than 10 points in a game at home this season.


Best Bet: Philadelphia + 1 ½


Vikings at Redskins (-2 ½, 41 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


Minnesota
Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 6-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1


The Vikings are in the midst of a free-fall following a 5-0 start by losing three straight games. In the three losses (all in the favorite role), Minnesota’s offense mustered a total of 36 points, while falling in overtime to Detroit last Sunday, 22-16. The Vikings’ defense has done its part by allowing four offensive touchdowns in the last three games in regulation, but Minnesota hasn’t rushed more than 93 yards in any of its three defeats. Minnesota is flipped into the underdog role this week, as the Vikings have posted a terrific 14-2 ATS record in its past 16 opportunities when receiving points.


Washington
Record: 4-3-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 90/1


The Redskins are back from the bye week following an unimpressive result in London, a 27-27 tie with the Bengals. Washington has work to do to catch Dallas in the NFC East, but the Redskins are still in the Wild Card mix after winning four of its past six games. The Redskins will be without one of their big offensive threats as wide receiver DeSean Jackson is sidelined with a shoulder injury. Washington has stumbled to a 2-9 ATS record under Jay Gruden in the favorite role, including a home loss to Dallas back in Week 2.


Best Bet: Minnesota +2 ½


Dolphins at Chargers (-4, 48 ½) – 4:05 PM EST


Miami
Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 150/1


The Dolphins embark on a two-game swing to southern California that will keep Miami out west for the next week. Miami heads to Los Angeles in Week 11, but first the Dolphins need to take care of the Chargers and keep their winning streak alive. The Dolphins started 1-4, but have won three consecutive games, including recent home divisional victories over the Bills and Jets. Miami has yet to pick up a road win this season (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS), while last winning at Qualcomm Stadium in 2005 (0-3 SU/ATS last three visits).


San Diego
Record: 4-5 SU, 6-3 ATS, 7-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1


The Chargers are several plays away from sitting above the .500 mark and really having a legitimate shot at the AFC West title. San Diego needs to go on a run to capture a Wild Card spot, but the Bolts have played better recently by winning three of their past four games. The Chargers pulled away from the Titans last Sunday in a 43-35 triumph as running back Melvin Gordon posted his second straight 100-yard game, while the defense scored a pair of touchdowns. Last season, the Chargers closed the season with four consecutive UNDERS at home, but San Diego has cashed the OVER in three of four games at Qualcomm Stadium in 2016.


Best Bet: San Diego -4


Cowboys at Steelers (-2 ½, 50) – 4:25 PM EST


Dallas
Record: 7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS, 5-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1


The Cowboys own the longest winning streak in the NFL at seven games following their opening week one-point defeat to the Giants. Dallas rolled Cleveland last Sunday, 35-10, as the Cowboys have held five of their last six opponents to 17 points or less. Dak Prescott continues to make his case as starting quarterback by throwing three touchdown passes against the Browns, while getting intercepted only twice in eight games. The Cowboys have won four of their past five road games against AFC opponents, as Dallas is making its first trip to Pittsburgh since a 20-13 loss at Heinz Field in 2008.


Pittsburgh
Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1


The Steelers jumped out of the gate with a solid 4-1 mark, but have fallen backwards by losing three in a row. Ben Roethlisberger injured his knee in a loss at Miami and although he returned last week at Baltimore, the Steelers haven’t scored more than 16 points in any of the past three losses. Pittsburgh has won 10 consecutive regular season home games in the favorite role since 2014, including a 3-0 SU/ATS record this season. The Steelers have fared well against NFC foes at Heinz Field since 2011, going 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS, including a 2-0 SU/ATS mark last season.


Best Bet: Pittsburgh -2 ½

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 10
November 12, 2016


The ‘over’ went 8-5 last weekend and is now 17-9 (65%) over the past two weeks. A lot of team total ‘over’ tickets cashed as well with eight clubs scoring 30 or more points and three of those teams put up 40-plus points. Through nine weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ holds the edge with a 72-60-1 (55%) record.


Divisional Action


There are only two divisional games scheduled in Week 10 and they’re certainly not must-see matchups but we do have some angles to check out.


Houston at Jacksonville: Even though this game has a low number (42), bettors should be aware that the first five AFC South games have went ‘over’ the number this season. Even with that angle, it’s tough to make a case for the high side on this game from what we’ve seen between this pair so far. Houston hasn’t won on the road (0-3) and it’s scored a total of 22 points in those games. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are winless at home and their averaging 18.7 points per game. We’ve seen the ‘over/under’ go 4-4 in the last eight games in this series.


San Francisco at Arizona: The Cardinals have seen the ‘under’ go 5-0 this season at home yet the oddsmakers have posted a total of 48 for this week’s matchup versus San Francisco. The Cards beat the 49ers earlier this season, notching a 33-21 road win in a Thursday matchup and the ‘over’ (42 ½) connected with a big second-half behind backup QB Drew Stanton. The 49ers defense (32.5 PPG) is the worst in the league and the porous unit has helped the ‘over’ go 6-2 this season.


Coast-to-Coast


This popular total trend is in play again this weekend with not one but two games. If you’re a new reader to Total Talk, then let’s bring you up to speed.


West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone have seen the ‘over’ go 10-0 this season and if you include the results from last season, the ‘over’ is 21-5 (81%) when these situations arise. I’m not sure what the rhyme or reason is for these lopsided results but be aware of it and follow or fade at your own discretion.


Los Angeles at N.Y. Jets: Lowest total (40) on the board. The L.A. offense (18.4 PPG) has been better on the road and the Rams scored a season-high 37 at Tampa Bay in Week 3 and also posted 28 at Detroit in Week 6.


Seattle at New England: (See Below)


I’ve also been charting the East Coast teams playing in the Pacific Time Zone and the ‘over’ has gone 5-4 in those situations. Miami will fall into this situation this weekend at San Diego and then again in Week 11 at Los Angeles.


Fifty Something


We had two totals close in the fifties last week and they both saw the ‘over’ connect. As of Saturday morning, there are four matchups hovering right around 50 and bettors are leaning to the high side according to the latest trends. Here’s my quick handicap on the totals.


Denver at New Orleans (49 ½): The classic offense vs. defense matchup takes place in the Superdome. The Broncos looked suspect against the Raiders last week and not having defensive back Aqib Talib (doubtful) doesn’t help the cause. The Saints have been installed as home favorites and they’re 0-2 in that role this season, allowing 35 and 45 points. In two trips East this season, Denver scored 29 and 27 respectively at Cincinnati and Tampa Bay.


Atlanta at Philadelphia (50): The Falcons have been the best ‘over’ team (8-1) in the league but I’m not fond of this spot for them on Sunday, especially against a desperate Eagles team that has only allowed 23 total points in three home games this season.


Green Bay at Tennessee (50): Based on the current form for each team, this could be a shootout. Green Bay has allowed 30-plus in three of its last four games and the offense (25 PPG) has kept close to that number during this stretch. Tennessee’s defense started the season on fire but it’s been a mess lately. The Titans have seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 this season and that includes a 4-1 mark in Nashville. Make a note that Tennessee has allowed a league-high seven non-offensive touchdowns this season and as you know, those scores are daggers for ‘under’ wagers.


Dallas at Pittsburgh (49 ½): A lot of money has come in on Dallas and it’s hard to argue against them on paper when you look at the Steelers defense. Pittsburgh’s secondary has been diced up this season (276 YPG) and the pass rush has only 11 sacks, ranked last in the league. The Steelers have seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 on the season with the two ‘over’ winners coming at Heinz Field.


Under the Lights


The ‘over’ went 3-0 in the primetime games last week and those results also snapped the impressive ‘under’ run on MNF. Including this past Thursday’s result from the Cleveland-Baltimore matchup, the ‘under’ has gone 15-12-1 (56%) in night games this season.


Seattle at New England: Based on the early betting report, the books need the Seahawks to win this game and they’ll likely need the ‘under’ to cash as well. The Patriots have seen the ‘under’ go 5-3 this season, which includes a 2-2 mark with QB Tom Brady. The New England offense (34 PPG) has been sharp since he returned but Seattle’s defense (16.8 PPG) will be the best unit he’s faced. The Patriots scoring defense (16.5 PPG) is better than the ‘Hawks yet we’re looking at total (48 ½) and that could have you scratching your head. Seattle has seen the ‘over’ go 7-1 on the road in its last eight games versus AFC foes and its defense hasn’t been great, allowing 22.3 PPG. Meanwhile, New England has averaged 30.1 PPG in its last eight home games versus NFC foes. Including the outcome in Super Bowl 49, the last four encounters between the pair have gone ‘over.’


Cincinnati at N.Y. Giants: This total (47) seems a tad high considering the Bengals (20.9 PPG) and Giants (20.1) have both regressed offensively this season. New York has seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 in its home games this season and Cincinnati enters this game on a 3-0 run to the high side. Cincinnati is off the bye and has only averaged 16.7 PPG in its last three games with rest. Cincinnati (5-9) hasn’t been great in night games with QB Andy Dalton and this will be their first primetime game of the season.

Fearless Predictions


I almost managed a split last week but Cleveland failed to score in the second-half, which has become a common theme (51 points in 10 games) for Hue Jackson and company this season. The weekly deficit wound up in the red ($220) and so is the overall bankroll ($240). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Best Over: San Francisco-Arizona 48


Best Under: Kansas City-Carolina 44 ½


Best Team Total: Over Denver 23


Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)


Under 59 Atlanta-Philadelphia
Over 40 ½ Denver-New Orleans
Over 39 San Francisco-Arizona

 

[CNOTES]

SNF - Seahawks at Patriots
November 10, 2016


The New England Patriots (7-1 straight up, 7-1 against the spread) are on their way to an eighth straight division title with a clear path to home field in the AFC as they've won and covered seven of eight games this season, including all four since quarterback Tom Brady returned from his silly suspension. On Sunday night they figure to get their toughest test of the season as the Seattle Seahawks (5-2-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) visit with the Patriots, who are 7.5-point favorites and a total set at 49.


This will be their first meeting since Super Bowl 49 when the Patriots won 28-24 as one-point favorites. It will be the second time this season the Seahawks have been underdogs, the first coming at Arizona (-2,5) and ending in a 6-6 draw. It's also the largest spread Seattle has faced since a 2012 game at San Francisco (-7.5) that they lost 13-6, but got the cover.


Since Brady returned, New England has won all four games by an average score of 34-17 beating an average spread of -7.5, and bettors have been loving it with tickets written on their side multiplying each week of Brady's vengeance tour. The sports books have been getting beat the like a drum along the way with each New England cover, but got a temporary halt-fire last week during the Patriots bye -- books still lost as bettors went against the 49ers and Browns.


The effect of the Patriots popularity with bettors has been inflated numbers as sort of a luxury tax, but they still cover whatever the oddsmakers throw out there. And because of that success, their past two games have seen tickets written at a 9-to-1 ratio over their opponents. Because of the quality opponent this week, the tickets written disparity should be lessened. However, the Patriots party wagon at the bet windows still figures to be prominent. Why jump off now when they keep cashing?


LINE MOVEMENT


CG Technology's seven sports books opened the Patriots -6.5 on Sunday night and within four minutes money had pushed it to -7 where it stayed until Tuesday when they moved to -7.5. The total has gone from an opener of 48.5 to 49.


If we go back to April when CG opened spreads on every game for the season the Patriots were only -2, which is a huge indication of how perception and ratings have changed since the season started.

ROBERTS RATING


I've upgraded New England 1.5-points since Week 5, which is a significant move, but also doesn't account for an added popularity tax. Over the same time, I've dropped Seattle 1.5-points which is also substantial for a team considered elite. Let's give New England 3-points for home field and then add in the Patriots differential of 2.5-points and I'm set with a number of -5.5. If I was booking it for the house, taking actual cash on the number after losing every week with New England, I'd start at -7 like most books did.

IT'S GO TIME FOR SEATTLE


This is the ninth game of the season for Seattle, which means we're in the second-half, which means Seattle gets into playoff mode. In the past four seasons, they've gone a combined 26-6 straight-up in the second-half.


SEATTLE DEFENSE


DB Kam Chancellor is a huge part of Seattle's defense, but he's missed the past four games with a groin injury and is questionable this week. Through eight games, the defense is ranked No. 9 allowing 332 ypg (2015: No. 2 with 291 ypg allowed), but the pass rush has been strong with 27 sacks, which ranks third. The real area of concern, though, is they're not forcing turnovers -- just eight on the season.


TOM BRADY'S REVENGE


At 39 and in his 17th season, Brady looks better than ever averaging 329 yards and three TDs passing in four games since returning to the lineup. He's yet to throw an interception or fumble. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has a over-under prop listed with him at 278.5 yards and two TDs.


RUSSELL WILSON LIGHT


Between nagging knee and ankle injuries, Russell Wilson has taken away a big part of what made him Danger-Russ by not taking off as often for positive yardage. Through eight games, he's rushed only 28 times for 54 yards (1.9 avg.) and one TD. In the past three seasons he's ended up with at least 539 yards rushing. After throwing a career high 36 TDs last season, he has only seven this year. However, after three games of not throwing any TD's, he threw two and ran for one against Buffalo on Monday night.


BETTING TRENDS


--Seattle is 3-8-1 ATS in past 12 against winning teams.
--Seattle is 6-2-1 ATS in past nine road games against winning home teams.
--Seattle Over total in seven of past nine gainst winning teams.


--New England is 21-8-2 ATS in past 31 home games.
--New England is 4-1 ATS past five years following bye week.
--New England Over total in four of past five following bye week.


SNF PROPS (WESTGATE)


--Total completions by Russell Wilson: 23.5
--Total TD passes by Russell Wilson: 1.5 UN -150
--Gross passing yards by Tom Brady: 278.5
--Total TD passes by Tom Brady: 2 OV -150
--Total receiving yards by Rob Gronkowski: 75.5


ODDS TO WIN (WESTGATE)


Seattle Seahawks
NFC WEST: 1/4 (favorite)
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: 3/1 (co-leader with Dallas)
SUPER BOWL: 8/1 (second choice tied with Dallas)


New England Patriots
AFC EAST: Off board due to commanding lead
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: 5/8 (favorite)
SUPER BOWL: 7/5 (favorite)

 

[CNOTES]

MNF - Bengals at Giants
November 12, 2016


The Week 10 finale in the NFL pits an interconference battle between the Bengals and Giants at Met Life Stadium. Cincinnati is playing its second straight NFC East opponent following its tie in London against Washington, while New York is right in the midst of the Wild Card race following a three-game winning streak.


LAST WEEK


The Bengals sat through the bye week in Week 9, but we’ll rewind an extra week back to Week 8. Cincinnati finished in a 27-27 tie against Washington in London as the Bengals failed to reach the .500 mark. The Bengals fell to 3-4-1 SU and 3-5 ATS as Marvin Lewis’ team couldn’t hold onto a 10-point third quarter lead. Kirk Cousins torched Cincinnati’s defense for 458 yards, compared to 284 yards passing from Bengals’ quarterback Andy Dalton. The Bengals picked up three touchdowns on the ground, including 152 yards rushing, the third straight game Cincinnati has rushed for at least 120 yards.

The Giants improved to 2-1 inside the NFC East after holding off the Eagles, 28-23 to cash as three-point home favorites. Eli Manning put up only 257 yards passing, but threw four touchdowns for the Giants, including a pair of scoring connections with Odell Beckham, Jr. New York’s ground game has been grounded for much of the season as the Giants accumulated only 54 yards on 24 carries, the fifth straight game they have been limited to 80 yards or fewer.


PRIMETIME PROBLEMS


Since 2012, the Bengals have struggled under the lights in the regular season by posting a 5-10 SU and 7-8 ATS record. Cincinnati picked up a victory in its only primetime opportunity this season in Week 4 against Miami, but the Bengals are winless in their last three road contests played on Monday night. Last season, the Bengals split a pair of Monday nighters, including a 10-6 loss to Houston as 10-point home favorites.


GIANT SCORING


Since cashing the UNDER in their home opener against the Saints in Week 2, New York has easily eclipsed the OVER in each of its past three contests at Met Life Stadium. The Giants and their opponent have combined for at least 50 points in each of the last three home contests even though the closing totals were 47, 42 ½, and 42 ½. Monday’s total sits at 48 at Sportsbook.ag, as the Giants are 4-1 to the UNDER on totals of 44 ½ and higher.


LINE MOVEMENT


The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened the Giants as two-point home favorites. However, that line has swung in Cincinnati’s favor as the Bengals are listed as one-point chalk at many sports books, including the Westgate. The total opened at 47 and is hovering between 47 and 48 at most outlets.


SERIES HISTORY


The Bengals are making their first ever trip to Met Life Stadium as Cincinnati last visited New York and the Meadowlands in 2008 as 13-point underdogs. Cincinnati cashed in a 26-23 overtime loss as the road team has never won in this series. The Bengals defeated the Giants in their last matchup in 2012 as 3 ½-point home underdogs, 31-13. Dalton torched New York for four touchdowns, while the Bengals’ defense intercepted Manning twice.


HANDICAPPER’S CORNER


VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says that even though the Giants are in the playoff race, there are some negative numbers against them. “The Giants own a negative scoring differential on the season as all five wins have come by seven or fewer points, but New York is currently in a great position as if they can win Monday night the next two games are against the Bears and Browns and 8-3 is a very realistic possibility ahead of a difficult five-game stretch to close the season in December,” Nelson notes.


Since nobody is pulling away in the AFC North, Nelson comments that the Bengals can still finish atop their division if they take care of business, “The Bengals still have four division games remaining including both meetings with the Ravens ahead and no team left on Cincinnati’s schedule has a record better than 5-3 as a great second half run is possible for the 2015 division champions. Cincinnati is 1-3 on the road this season with disappointing numbers, but the three road losses came at Pittsburgh, Dallas, and New England for a formidable slate.”


PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook


Cincinnati


A. Dalton – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (+110)
1 ½ - UNDER (-130)


A.J. Green – Total Receiving Yards
87 ½ - OVER (-110)
87 ½ - UNDER (-110)


New York


E. Manning - Total Completions
23 ½ - OVER (-110)
23 ½ - UNDER (-110)


E. Manning – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (-130)
1 ½ - UNDER (+110)


O. Beckham, Jr. – Total Receiving Yards
85 ½ - OVER (-110)
85 ½ - UNDER (-110)

 

[CNOTES]

Falcons missing 3 starters for Sunday's game at Eagles
November 11, 2016


FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. (AP) The first-place Atlanta Falcons have ruled out three starters for their game Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles.


Running back Tevin Coleman will miss his third straight game with a hamstring injury, while tight end Jacob Tamme is sitting out his second game in a row with a shoulder problem.


Cornerback Desmond Trufant left the last game, a Thursday night victory over Tampa Bay, with a shoulder injury. Even with extra time to recover, he wasn't able to make it back.


The Falcons are off next week, which likely factored into the decision not to rush anyone back.


Defensive end Dwight Freeney (quadriceps) will be able to play after fully participating in Friday's practice.


The Falcons (6-3) lead the NFC South heading into the contest against the Eagles (4-4).