Cnotes 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[CNOTES]

Fitzpatrick to start for Jets vs. Patriots
November 21, 2016


FLORHAM PARK, N.J. (AP) Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the New York Jets' starting quarterback Sunday against the New England Patriots.


Coach Todd Bowles made the announcement after practice Monday, the players' first day back at the facility since last Tuesday following a bye-week break.


Fitzpatrick sat out the Jets' previous game against Los Angeles on Nov. 13 with a sprained left knee. Bryce Petty made his first regular-season NFL start and went 19 of 32 for 163 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the 9-6 loss.


Bowles said last week that he would consider which quarterback would give the Jets (3-7) the best chance of winning against the Patriots (8-2). The coach says the fact Fitzpatrick is healthy again contributed to his decision, adding that he's the starter ''and we're going forward with that.''


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Cardinals head coach Arians hospitalized
November 21, 2016


TEMPE, Ariz. (AP) Arizona Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians was in the hospital Monday after feeling ill overnight, the team said.


The Cardinals issued a statement that said the 64-year-old coach was not feeling well Sunday night after returning home from Arizona's game in Minnesota and his wife took him to the hospital.


All tests conducted so far had come back favorably, the team said.


The Cardinals said they would provide updates as information became available.


Arizona lost 30-24 to the Minnesota Vikings in Minneapolis on Sunday. With almost everyone returning from last season's 13-3 team, the Cardinals were expected to be Super Bowl contenders but are 4-5-1 through 10 games.


Arians is one of the NFL's more colorful personalities. His profanity-laced dialogue was a highlight of the ''All or Nothing'' video series by NFL Films chronicling the Cardinals' 2015 season.


He was also hospitalized overnight during the preseason after doubling over with stomach pains as his team was practicing with the Chargers in San Diego. After he left the hospital, Arians said the pain was caused by diverticulitis and said he would further adjust his diet, something he said he already had begun to do.


An assistant coach for decades, Arians became interim head coach at Indianapolis in 2012 when Chuck Pagano left for treatment of leukemia. The team went 9-3 under Arians and he was named NFL coach of the year.


He took the head coaching job with Arizona the following season, guiding the team to a 10-6 record and won a second coach of the year honor after guiding Arizona to an 11-5 mark in 2014.


Overall, the Cardinals are 38-18-1 under Arians.


------------------------------


Surging Bucs in middle of playoff hunt
November 21, 2016


TAMPA, Fla. (AP) Thanks to the steady progress of Jameis Winston, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are back in the thick of the race for a playoff berth.


The team's 19-17 road upset of the Kansas City Chiefs lifted the Bucs (5-5) back to .500, one game behind the NFC South-leading Atlanta Falcons with six weeks remaining in the regular season.


Tampa Bay hasn't made the playoffs since 2007. Sunday's victory was a confidence booster heading into a stretch run that'll feature home games against Seattle, New Orleans and Carolina and road tests against San Diego, Dallas and the Saints.


''We're just jelling, coming together one game at a time,'' safety Bradley McDougald said.


Winston played one of the best games of his young career, topping 300 yards passing in consecutive games for the first time and not throwing an interception.


The Bucs converted 68.7 percent of their third-down opportunities, with the second-year quarterback going 12 of 14 for 133 yards and one touchdown on third downs.


The defense has played better in victories over Chicago and Kansas City the past two weeks after allowing 1,087 yards, including 857 passing, during losses to Oakland and Atlanta within a five-day span.


''Every week is a different week,'' said safety Chris Conte, who returned an interception for a touchdown against the Bears.


He then earned a game ball against the Chiefs with an end zone interception that cost Kansas City - trailing 12-10 at the time - a chance to take a fourth-quarter lead.


''You know we've got another big challenge next week. We've just got to keep on working,'' Conte added, looking ahead to the Seahawks (7-2-1) on Sunday.


''Whenever you win, it's huge. I think we played a relatively clean game on defense, with the exception of a couple of big plays. We're getting better each week.''


Winston completed third-down throws to six receivers, including Alan Cross, an undrafted rookie tight end who had one career reception before scoring Tampa Bay's only TD on a 3-yard catch in the fourth quarter.


''We talk about role playing all the time, play your role, understand your role can change at any second,'' coach Dirk Koetter said. ''These last two games, we've been doing a really good job as a football team of playing our roles. The coaches putting them in positions to play them, some guys' roles have expanded, some guys have diminished roles.''


Receiver Cecil Shorts III is one of the players who has seen his role grow as the season progresses. The sixth-year pro didn't sign with Tampa Bay until the week of the opener, and he had his most productive game since arriving with five receptions for 62 yards against the Chiefs.


''Good teams find ways to win in November and December. I think we're hitting our stride at the right time,'' Shorts said. ''We're finally getting our timing down. We're executing very well on third down. We got Doug (Martin) back at a crucial time of the year. Things are looking good for us.''

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Week 12 opening line report: Thanksgiving week brings critical matchups


"The Cowboys will once again be the side of the public, they have been all year, and all they do is cash tickets for their backers.”


Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys, no line


Dallas is hotter than a two-dollar pistol and gets to play at home on a short week. The Cowboys (9-1 SU and ATS) haven’t lost outright nor against the number since Week 1, and on Sunday, they topped the Baltimore Ravens 27-17 as a 7-point home favorite.


Washington appears to be getting its act together, putting itself in the wild-card picture in the process. On Sunday night, the Redskins (6-3-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) rolled past reeling Green Bay 42-24 as a 3-point home chalk.


“Both the ‘Skins and Cowboys are coming off very nice efforts, more so the Skins, having won by 18 points in front of a national TV audience on Sunday night,” Childs said. “But this is a real tough spot for Washington, having played Sunday night and now having to travel on a very short week. The Cowboys will once again be the side of the public, they have been all year, and all they do is cash tickets for their backers.”


Since the ‘Skins were in the late game, Childs said Sportsbook.ag would wait until Monday to post the line. But he’s leaning toward Dallas as about a touchdown fave.


“My line before the ‘Skins played on Sunday night was Cowboys -7. We’ll assess in the morning, but I feel like we’ll open Cowboys -6.5 and see what bettors do with it.”

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3)


There’s a game in the NFC North with first-place on the line, and it doesn’t involve the Green Bay Packers. Minnesota and Detroit are tied at 6-4 SU and ATS, though Detroit has an edge since it beat Minnesota 22-16 in overtime as a 4.5-point underdog earlier this month.


In fact, the Lions are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games, after fending off Jacksonville 26-19 Sunday laying 5.5 points at home. The Vikings, meanwhile, finally got back on track after a four-game SU and ATS slide, besting Arizona 30-24 giving 2 points at home.


“Monster game for the NFC North, as the winner will have the inside track on the division and a playoff berth,” Childs said. “And it’s a great game to start Turkey Day. We opened Lions -3, strictly on having home field, as these teams grade out equally on my power ratings. So far, most of the early money is on the ‘dog, so we adjusted the Vikings to +3 (-120), hanging some extra juice on them.”


Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-3.5)


The AFC West is a three-team logjam, with defending Super Bowl champion Denver just trying to keep pace with both Kansas City and Oakland. The Broncos (7-3 SU and ATS) should be well-rested for this Sunday night contest, coming off their bye week after a stunning win at New Orleans, where Denver – a 3-point ‘dog – returned a block extra point to account for the final score of 25-23.


The Chiefs (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) are coming off arguably an equally stunning loss. Kansas City was a 7-point home chalk Sunday against Tampa Bay, but ended up losing 19-17. Bad loss aside, Childs is still looking forward to this division showdown.


“Thank God this game got flexed into the prime-time Sunday night game, or we’d be stuck with the Patriots-Jets game, which would have been bad for betting action,” Childs said. “The Broncos are coming off a bye, and I have a feeling the extra prep time is going to help them immensely, especially on offense, where they’ve been struggling recently. The Chiefs are off an awful loss to the lowly Bucs, at home no less.


“It’s a monster game, with both wild-card and divisional implications. The loser will be fighting an uphill battle for the AFC West.”


Sportsbook.ag opted to open Denver at -3.5 in the Mile High City.


“The Broncos always play well at home, so we had to make them at least a 3-point favorite,” Childs said. “We added a hook, thinking bettors were going to be turned off on the Chiefs after their latest effort, or lack thereof. So far, we’ve seen good two-way action at 3.5, so I don’t see this number moving all that much.”


Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles, no line


Two teams fighting to stay relevant in the 2016 season wrap up Week 12 by playing on “Monday Night Football.” Green Bay’s position is surely the bigger surprise, as it dropped to 4-6 SU and 4-5-1 ATS after a 42-24 loss at Washington catching 3 points in the Sunday nighter.


Philadelphia got out of the gate 3-0 SU and ATS behind rookie QB Carson Wentz, but is 2-5 SU and ATS since then. On Sunday, the Eagles (5-5 SU and ATS) lost 26-15 at Seattle getting 6.5 points.


“The Packers suffered a devastating loss that could seal their fate for missing the playoffs. They also suffered a bunch of injuries, which is very troubling for a team that was already beat up on both sides of the ball,” said Childs, noting that with Green Bay playing late Sunday, the opening line had to wait. “My initial number prior to the Sunday night game was Eagles -2. Now, I see us opening (Monday) at least 3 and maybe more.”


Part of the calculus is the Packers remaining on the road this week.


“They’re a beat-up and demoralized team traveling for the third straight week,” Childs said. “I can’t see them coming up with much of an effort, and the Eagles have been money in the bank at home (4-0 SU and ATS). I really need to read up more on the Packers’ injury situation, but I see us opening up Eagles -3.5 or more.”

 

[CNOTES]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 12 NFL lines are going to move


Coach Todd Bowles is reportedly ready to jettison erratic Ryan Fitzpatrick and start rebuilding around second-year QB Bryce Petty.


Game to bet now


Cincinnati at Baltimore (-4)


Can things get any worse for the Bengals? This past Sunday’s loss to the Bills (at home) might have just about ended their season. Cincy is now 3-6-1, and while that’s not too deep a hole in an AFC North Division co-led by the Steelers and Ravens at 5-5, Marvin Lewis has more than his share of problems with the team’s best player (A.J. Green) possibly lost for the season with a hamstring injury, and running back Giovani Bernard (ACL) definitely cooked for 2016.


The injury news moved the line from Baltimore -3 (almost all AFC North games not involving the Browns are field goal lines) to Ravens -4.


Given the Bengals’ historical inability to deal with adversity, even 4 might be a bargain.


Game to wait on


New England at New York Jets (+8.5)


Looks like a wasted year for the Jets, who are rumored to be getting set to release CB Darrelle Revis after the season. Coach Todd Bowles is reportedly ready to jettison erratic Ryan Fitzpatrick and start rebuilding around second-year QB Bryce Petty. Problem is, everyone knows Petty is nowhere near ready, and inserting him into the lineup would give a loud and clear signal that the head coach of the NYJ is cashing it in this year.


Complicating matters is that New England is next on the schedule after New York’s bye, and the Pats feast on inexperienced quarterbacks because of their intricate defensive schemes.


Best wait on this one until it’s clear who the Jets will use at QB.


Total to watch


Seattle at Tampa Bay (44.5)


On the surface there appears to be nothing special here. Seattle is 5-5 on the over, and Tampa Bay games have covered the O/U number 6 times in 10 games. But there’s a little more to it. The Seahawks have found their offense and have averaged nearly 30 points a game since the calendar turned to November. Russell Wilson is playing with great confidence.


And don’t be fooled by the Buccaneers’ scoring less than 20 in a win over Kansas City on Sunday. Prior to that their games had gone over four straight times. In home games the Bucs average nearly 26 ppg.


This game was bet down half a point in early wagering, making it tempting for a hard look at the over.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 12


Thursday, November 24


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MINNESOTA (6 - 4) at DETROIT (6 - 4) - 11/24/2016, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 57-82 ATS (-33.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 129-165 ATS (-52.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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WASHINGTON (6 - 3 - 1) at DALLAS (9 - 1) - 11/24/2016, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
DALLAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
DALLAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
WASHINGTON is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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PITTSBURGH (5 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 5) - 11/24/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Sunday, November 27


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SAN DIEGO (4 - 6) at HOUSTON (6 - 3) - 11/27/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 27-4 ATS (+22.6 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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TENNESSEE (5 - 6) at CHICAGO (2 - 8) - 11/27/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 47-26 ATS (+18.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 8) at BUFFALO (5 - 5) - 11/27/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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CINCINNATI (3 - 6 - 1) at BALTIMORE (5 - 5) - 11/27/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 69-95 ATS (-35.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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ARIZONA (4 - 5 - 1) at ATLANTA (6 - 4) - 11/27/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 9) at MIAMI (6 - 4) - 11/27/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 53-78 ATS (-32.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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LA RAMS (4 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 6) - 11/27/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 175-218 ATS (-64.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-218 ATS (-64.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-111 ATS (-42.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-171 ATS (-62.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 25-46 ATS (-25.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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NY GIANTS (7 - 3) at CLEVELAND (0 - 11) - 11/27/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 35-61 ATS (-32.1 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 32-56 ATS (-29.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 39-19 ATS (+18.1 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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SEATTLE (7 - 2 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (5 - 5) - 11/27/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 61-36 ATS (+21.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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CAROLINA (4 - 6) at OAKLAND (7 - 2) - 11/27/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 71-100 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 71-100 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 71-100 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 36-75 ATS (-46.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 19-41 ATS (-26.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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KANSAS CITY (7 - 3) at DENVER (7 - 3) - 11/27/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
DENVER is 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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NEW ENGLAND (8 - 2) at NY JETS (3 - 7) - 11/27/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 179-134 ATS (+31.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 103-75 ATS (+20.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Monday, November 28


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GREEN BAY (4 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 5) - 11/28/2016, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Week 12


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, November 24


12:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
Detroit is 6-14-3 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota


4:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
Washington is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Washington is 6-18-1 SU in its last 25 games ,on the road
Dallas is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Washington
Dallas is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home


8:30 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Pittsburgh is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh



Sunday, November 27


1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. ATLANTA
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Arizona is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Arizona
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona


1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. BALTIMORE
Cincinnati is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Baltimore is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Cincinnati


1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. BUFFALO
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville


1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. MIAMI
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Miami is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games at home


1:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Los Angeles's last 11 games on the road
Los Angeles is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
New Orleans is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games at home


1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. CLEVELAND
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
NY Giants are 1-2-2 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games at home
Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games


1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. CHICAGO
Tennessee is 4-14-1 ATS in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home
Chicago is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games


1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego's last 7 games
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


4:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games when playing Seattle


4:25 PM
CAROLINA vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Carolina's last 21 games on the road
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Oakland6-1-1 SU in its last 8 games
Oakland is 8-16-1 SU in its last 25 games ,at home


4:25 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. NY JETS
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New England is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
NY Jets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing New England
NY Jets are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games when playing New England


8:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
Denver is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home




Monday, November 28


8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Green Bay is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Green Bay

 

[CNOTES]

NFL TRENDS


Money Line


8:30 pm 11/27/2016
(271) KANSAS CITY @(272) DENVER
Play ON DENVER using the money line in All games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.
The record is 21 Wins and 3 Losses since 1992 (+17.4 units)
BET NOW!


4:25 pm 11/27/2016
(269) CAROLINA @(270) OAKLAND
Play AGAINST OAKLAND using the money line in All games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.
The record is 20 Wins and 42 Losses since 1992 (-40.5 units)
BET NOW!


4:25 pm 11/27/2016
(273) NEW ENGLAND @(274) NY JETS
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using the money line in Road games in games played on turf.
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+11 units)
BET NOW!


4:05 pm 11/27/2016
(267) SEATTLE @(268) TAMPA BAY
Play AGAINST TAMPA BAY using the money line in Home games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 4 Wins and 17 Losses for the last three seasons (-17.55 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/27/2016
(265) NY GIANTS @(266) CLEVELAND
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using the money line in All games in all lined games.
The record is 3 Wins and 24 Losses for the last two seasons (-21.7 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/27/2016
(265) NY GIANTS @(266) CLEVELAND
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using the money line in All games in all games.
The record is 3 Wins and 24 Losses for the last two seasons (-21.7 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/27/2016
(251) SAN DIEGO @(252) HOUSTON
Play ON SAN DIEGO using the money line in All games against AFC South division opponents.
The record is 25 Wins and 7 Losses since 1992 (+23.6 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/27/2016
(263) LA RAMS @(264) NEW ORLEANS
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using the money line in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.
The record is 18 Wins and 20 Losses since 1992 (-37.5 units)
BET NOW!


4:30 pm 11/24/2016
(109) WASHINGTON @(110) DALLAS
Play ON DALLAS using the money line in All games in all games.
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses this season (+9.35 units)
BET NOW!


4:30 pm 11/24/2016
(109) WASHINGTON @(110) DALLAS
Play ON DALLAS using the money line in All games in all lined games.
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses this season (+9.35 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

NFL TRENDS


ATS



8:30 pm 11/27/2016
(271) KANSAS CITY @(272) DENVER
Play ON DENVER against the spread in All games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.
The record is 18 Wins and 4 Losses since 1992 (+13.6 units)
BET NOW!


4:25 pm 11/27/2016
(269) CAROLINA @(270) OAKLAND
Play AGAINST OAKLAND against the spread in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 12 Wins and 39 Losses since 1992 (-30.9 units)
BET NOW!


4:25 pm 11/27/2016
(269) CAROLINA @(270) OAKLAND
Play AGAINST OAKLAND against the spread in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.
The record is 6 Wins and 22 Losses since 1992 (-18.2 units)
BET NOW!


4:25 pm 11/27/2016
(273) NEW ENGLAND @(274) NY JETS
Play ON NEW ENGLAND against the spread in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest.
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses this season (+7 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/27/2016
(253) TENNESSEE @(254) CHICAGO
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.
The record is 0 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (-9.9 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/27/2016
(253) TENNESSEE @(254) CHICAGO
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 3 Wins and 16 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.6 units)
BET NOW!


8:30 pm 11/24/2016
(111) PITTSBURGH @(112) INDIANAPOLIS
Play ON INDIANAPOLIS against the spread in All games when playing on a Thursday.
The record is 11 Wins and 1 Losses since 1992 (+9.9 units)
BET NOW!


4:30 pm 11/24/2016
(109) WASHINGTON @(110) DALLAS
Play ON DALLAS against the spread in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest.
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses this season (+8 units)
BET NOW!


4:30 pm 11/24/2016
(109) WASHINGTON @(110) DALLAS
Play ON DALLAS against the spread in All games after 2 or more consecutive wins.
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses this season (+7 units)
BET NOW!


12:30 pm 11/24/2016
(107) MINNESOTA @(108) DETROIT
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points.
The record is 12 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+10.9 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

NFL TRENDS


Half Time



4:25 pm 11/27/2016
(269) CAROLINA @(270) OAKLAND
Play ON CAROLINA in the first half in All games in November games.
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW!


4:25 pm 11/27/2016
(269) CAROLINA @(270) OAKLAND
Play ON CAROLINA in the first half in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 17 Wins and 5 Losses for the last two seasons (+11.5 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/27/2016
(263) LA RAMS @(264) NEW ORLEANS
Play AGAINST LA RAMS in the first half in All games as a road underdog of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 11 Wins and 34 Losses since 1992 (-26.4 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/27/2016
(257) CINCINNATI @(258) BALTIMORE
Play ON BALTIMORE in the first half in All games as a home favorite of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 33 Wins and 12 Losses since 1992 (+19.8 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

NFL TRENDS


Half Time Over




1:00 pm 11/27/2016
(259) ARIZONA @(260) ATLANTA
Play OVER ATLANTA on the first half total in Home games against NFC West division opponents.
The record is 14 Overs and 2 Unders since 1992 (+11.8 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/27/2016
(259) ARIZONA @(260) ATLANTA
Play OVER ATLANTA on the first half total in All games against NFC West division opponents.
The record is 24 Overs and 7 Unders since 1992 (+16.3 units)
BET NOW!


--------------------------------


NFL TRENDS


Half Time Under




8:30 pm 11/27/2016
(271) KANSAS CITY @(272) DENVER
Play UNDER DENVER on the first half total in All games as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 3 Overs and 15 Unders for the last two seasons (+11.7 units)
BET NOW!


8:30 pm 11/27/2016
(271) KANSAS CITY @(272) DENVER
Play UNDER DENVER on the first half total in All games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line.
The record is 1 Overs and 11 Unders for the last two seasons (+9.9 units)
BET NOW!


1:00 pm 11/27/2016
(257) CINCINNATI @(258) BALTIMORE
Play UNDER CINCINNATI on the first half total in All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 2 Overs and 15 Unders for the last three seasons (+12.8 units)
BET NOW!

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Turkey Day edition


Dallas has been an absolute force in the ground game this season, ranking second in both overall rushing yards per game (156.7) and home rushing yards per contest (157.0).


Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3, 42.5)


Vikings' stout run defense vs. Lions' lack of ground scoring


Anyone who wrote off the Vikings defense going into its Week 11 encounter with the Arizona Cardinals is probably giving that stance a second thought. The Vikings D/ST had a sensational day, generating a pair of field-length touchdowns on the way to a pivotal 30-24 victory over the Cards. And while David Johnson did plenty of damage on the ground, Minnesota remains one of the stingiest teams when it comes to rushing scores; the Lions are about to find that out first-hand.


The Vikings have limited opponents to just five rushing touchdowns through their first 10 games of the season. Johnson's one-yard scoring scamper with 4:07 remaining in the first quarter is the only rushing TD Minnesota has surrendered in its previous three games. That stretch includes a showdown against Detroit in which the Lions prevailed 22-16, but averaged just 3.9 yards per carry - a number that falls to 2.3 if you take out Theo Riddick's 42-yard run - and didn't have a rush attempt inside the 10.


That pass-heavy red-zone strategy has been the Lions' modus operandi so far this season. Detroit enters its Week 12 encounter with just four rushing touchdowns on the year - and one of those came courtesy TE Eric Ebron, who had a one-yard scoring plunge in Sunday's 26-19 plunge over Jacksonville. The Lions' ineptitude at rushing in the red zone, combined with the Vikings' aptitude at preventing rushing scores, could mean bad news for the Detroit offense in a challenging divisional tilt.


Daily fantasy watch: Vikings D/ST




Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 50)


Redskins' wretched road rush D vs. Cowboys' dominance in Big D


The latest edition of the Thanksgiving showdown between the Redskins and Cowboys takes on added significance this year, with the Cowboys riding an incredible nine-game winning streak and the Redskins battling with the New York Giants for second place in the NFC East. Yet, while both of these teams have plenty of firepower, the Cowboys enjoy a significant mismatch that grows even bigger in the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium.


The Redskins rank in the lower third of the league in run defense, allowing just over 112 yards per game on the ground. That number climbs to 121 yards away from Washington, the eighth-worst road mark in football. While Washington has boasted a much more robust run defense at home - even limiting Dallas rookie superstar Ezekiel Elliott to 83 yards in a Week 2 defeat - the Redskins have been gashed for six rushing touchdowns in four road games. They'll play four of their final six games outside Washington.


That difficult stretch starts with what will easily be their toughest remaining test. Dallas has been an absolute force in the ground game this season, ranking second in both overall rushing yards per game (156.7) and home rushing yards per contest (157.0). Look for Elliott to exploit Washington's weaknesses on the defensive line - aided, of course, by the top offensive line in football - and make things extraordinally difficult for the Redskins in hostile territory.


Daily fantasy watch: RB Ezekiel Elliott




Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (OFF)


Steelers' third-down road shutdown vs. Colts' home conversion woes


The narrative just won't go away: The Pittsburgh Steelers are a far worse offensive team on the road than they are at home. And it's hard to argue that point when you consider that, over his last 19 road games, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown just 19 TD passes compared to 55 over his previous 19 home games. But this entry focuses on the Steelers' impressive third-down road defense, and how it matches up favorably with a Colts team struggling to convert on third down at home.


Pittsburgh has been one of the toughest teams in the league when it comes to home teams facing third-down situations, with the Steelers allowing a minuscule 33.3-percent conversion rate. That's tied with the Miami Dolphins for the second-best rate, behind only the Oakland Raiders (28.8). And while facing the Browns in Cleveland doesn't hurt - Pittsburgh held them to 4-for-15 on third downs in Sunday's win - the Steelers have been almost as stingy against the rest of their road opponents.


That bodes poorly for the Colts, who come into the game as a slight underdog despite having home-field advantage. Only six teams have been less successful at converting third downs at home than Indianapolis, whose 37.1-percent success rate is down from the 40 percent mark it posted a season ago. Whether it's Andrew Luck or Scott Tolzien under center, look for the Colts to try and avoid having to convert third downs against a Pittsburgh defensive unit that has proven adept at forcing home teams to punt.


Daily fantasy fade: WR Donte Moncrief

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 12
November 22, 2016




THURSDAY, NOV. 24


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MINNESOTA at DETROIT (CBS, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Vikes 1-4 SU and vs. line last 5 TY after 19-3 vs. spread previous 22. Lions 5-2-2 vs. line last 9 at Ford Field. Lions have won and covered last three on Thanksgiving after losing and failing to cover previous nine on Turkey Day!
Tech Edge: Lions and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at DALLAS (FOX, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Dak 9-0-1 vs. line TY, but Skins 11-3 last 14 vs. spread in reg. season. Skins also “over” 13-2 last 15 since late 2015. Skins 9-3 vs. line last 12 in series and have won outright last two at Jerry Jones/AT&T.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at INDIANAPOLIS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Steel on 1-4 SU and vs. line last 5, Colts 8-1 last 9 as home dog. Series “over” last two years and 4-0 last four. Indy “over” 8-3 last 11.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Colts, based on “totals” and team trends.

SUNDAY, NOV. 27


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN DIEGO at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans 5-0 SU, 4-0-1 vs. line at home TY. Bolts 3-2 as road dog TY, now 21-10-1 in role since 2011. Bolts also “over” 9-2 last 11 since late 2015.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TENNESSEE at CHICAGO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears 3-7 vs. line TY, now 4-11 vs. spread last 15 on board since late 2015. Titans “over” 11-3 last 14 since late 2015.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Titans, based on Titans’ “totals” and anti-Bears trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
JACKSONVILLE at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags 2-5 vs. spread last seven as visitor. Gus Bradley also “over” 10-6 last 16. Rex Ryan 5-2 last seven vs. spread at Orchard Park.
Tech Edge: Bills and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Harbaugh “under” 9-3 since late LY. Cincy 2-8 vs. spread TY but Bengals have won last five SU in series (4-1 vs. line).
Tech Edge: Slight to “under” and Ravens, based on recent and “totals” and series trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ARIZONA at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cards just 3-8 last eleven vs. spread, 1-3 last four on road. Falcs only 1-3 vs. line at home TY, but also “over” 8-2 this season.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Falcons, based on “totals” and team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins win and cover last five TY, Niners 0-9 SU, 1-8 vs. line last 9 since Rams opener. Both also “over” 6-3 last 9 TY.
Tech Edge: Dolphins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
LOS ANGELES at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints 6-1 last seven vs. line, only L that stretch the wild loss vs. Denver. Rams 3-0-1 vs. number as visitor TY (not counting London game), and “under” 19 -7-1 since late in 2014.
Tech Edge: Slight to Saints, based on recent trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NY GIANTS at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Winless Browns now also no covers last five TY, also “under” last three after Hue Jackson “over” 12-3 in fifteen previous as HC at Oakland (2011) and Brownies TY. Eli 4-1-1 vs. line last six TY.
Tech Edge: Giants, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SEATTLE at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bucs just 1-6 vs. spread last seven as host, 4-9 since LY.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cam 0-4-1 last five vs. spread away from home, but 12-6 last 18 as reg,-season dog. Raiders 1-3 vs. line at home TY, 3-9 since LY for Del Rio. Raiders also “over” 8-2 TY.
Tech Edge: Cam and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ENGLAND at NY JETS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Belichick 0-5-1 vs. line against Jets since 2013, including very damaging SU loss late LY. Pats 5-1 SU and vs. line since Brady return, Jets on 2-6 spread skid. “Overs” 11-2 last 13 in series.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
KANSAS CITY at DENVER (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
KC has won and covered last three away, but Andy Reid 1-5 SU, 2-4 vs. line against Broncos since moving to KCV in 2013. Kubiak on 9-3 spread run, 7-3 TY, and 5-1 last six vs. spread as host. “Unders” 8-2-1 last eleven series meetings.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.


MONDAY, NOV. 28
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
GREEN BAY at PHILADELPHIA (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Birds 4-0 SU and vs. line at home TY, also “under” all four of those games. Pack 3-8-1 vs. line last 12 reg.-season games, and “over” last three this season.
Tech Edge: Eagles, based on team trends.

 

[d3nv3r]

Tech trends killed it ATS for week 11. 9-1 and 3-0 on slight leans. 4-8 on totals.

 

[indiana]

C/note...........BOL with all your weekend action..............you and your family have a great Holiday............indy

 

[CNOTES]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 12
November 23, 2016


Week 11 was not a great week for large NFL underdogs to win outright as only one of the eight teams getting four points or more managed to come away with a victory. If you had followed along with my top three selections though in last week's piece, you would have hit that one winner as the Buccaneers were able to beat a Kansas City team that still looks a lot more like “pretenders” than “contenders.”

Week 12 has plenty of teams getting four points or more on the spread so rather than go through the entire list, I'm going to break it down a bit into those teams getting +4 to +6.5, and those getting +7 or more.

Sportsbook.ag Week 12 Underdogs That Qualify

Chicago Bears (+5); ML (+195)
Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5); ML (+185)
Arizona Cardinals (+4.5); ML (+177)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6); ML (+230)
Green Bay Packers (+4); ML (+165)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5); ML (+275)
San Francisco 49ers (+8); ML (+280)
LA Rams (+7); ML (+270)
Cleveland Browns (+7); ML (+260)

We will start with the bigger underdogs in LA, Cleveland, San Francisco, and Jacksonville as there is only really one team you can consider for an outright win and that's the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags let me down last week when they came up short, and they've let down plenty of NFL bettors who had high hopes for this team this season.


But Buffalo isn't exactly a spectacular group themselves and laying over a touchdown against Jacksonville is a little absurd. One day the Jaguars will finally learn out to put together a full 60 minute performance and close out victories and finishing strong down the stretch has to be their goal for building into next season.


There are some reports that HC Gus Bradley has “lost” the team and there is simply no motivation from the Jaguars players, but at some point professional pride has to kick in. If Jacksonville can find that pride this week and pair it with some solid, sustained execution, there is no reason to think they can't come out of Buffalo with an outright victory.

As far as the other teams on the list go, we've got numerous sides that entered the 2016 season as solid favorites to compete for a Super Bowl, only to have the year go awry for one reason or another.


Cincinnati, Arizona, and Green Bay all received plenty of support to make a championship run this season and at the moment, it looks like only the Packers have an outside shot of even making the playoffs.


All three are likely to get a fair share of ML support from bettors this week at these underdog odds, but of the three, I'd only be comfortable in taking Green Bay on the ML.

Green Bay is in Philadelphia to take on an Eagles team that has started to come back down to earth. For as bad as the Packers have been defensively thanks to a laundry list of injuries they are dealing with on that side of the ball, Philly isn't going to be able to put up a plethora of points against them like recent opponents have.


Also, while Philly is a much better team at home with wins over the likes of Pittsburgh, Minnesota, and Atlanta already, this was still an Eagles team that had a season win total in the 6 to 6.5 range and will continue to play to that projected standard.


Aaron Rodgers and company know they've got to get it going now if they want any hope of making the playoffs and as long as their defense can hold on even a little bit, the Packers at +165 on the ML does have some value.

As far as the Bears and Buccaneers go, Chicago just lost QB Jay Cutler for the year and you wonder about the fallout from that. Brian Hoyer isn't a huge downgrade in that regard and the Titans aren't great, so the Bears do have a chance if they don't let losing Cutler for the year affect them much.


I'm not sure how they would given that they are 2-8 SU and things couldn't get much worse, but with Seattle in Tampa to play the Bucs, the Bears would definitely be the better ML option of the two teams.

There is no question that we will see at least a couple of these NFL underdogs on this list pull off upsets this week, but if you are looking to narrow it down somewhat, keep the Bears (+195), Packers (+165), and Jaguars (+275) on the short list.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Thanksgiving
November 23, 2016


Based on Sunday’s opening numbers, this year’s Thanksgiving Day card was expected to start off slow with a slugfest and end with a couple shootouts but a key injury will likely simmer the nightcap in Indianapolis. Two of three games on tap are divisional matchups and all six of the teams in action are very well alive in this year’s playoff hunt.


Let’s break down the holiday totals.

Minnesota at Detroit (CBS, 12:30 p.m. ET)


The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the last six meetings in this series, which includes their first encounter this season in Week 9. Detroit rallied for an improbable 22-16 overtime win at Minnesota and even though the game went to the extra session, the ‘under’ (42) was never in doubt. The pace of the game was slow as both clubs combined for only 21 possessions, which included the game-winning drive by Detroit in overtime.


Minnesota and Detroit have both leaned to the ‘under’ (6-4) this season yet both clubs bring different total streaks into this matchup. After watching the ‘over’ begin 4-2, the Lions have seen their last four games go ‘under’ the total and the defense has an allowed an average of 18 points per game during this run and the offense (20.3 PPG) hasn’t looked that sharp.


Meanwhile, the Vikings started the season with a 6-2 ‘under’ mark but the ‘over’ has cashed in their last two games.


The Vikings are ranked last in total offense (293.8 YPG) and those numbers have been worse on the road (276.6 YPG). Most would agree that Minnesota has the better defense in this matchup and it should hold Detroit in check. However, the Vikings have been diced up on the ground in its last three games (97, 128, 135 yards).


The total opened 43 and has been bet down to as low as 41 as of Wednesday. Detroit has seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 in its last nine games played on Thanksgiving Day and it’s helped the cause the last four seasons by averaging 37.5 PPG.


For what it’s worth, the NFC North has played six divisional games this season and the four teams have combined for a 5-1 ‘under’ mark.


Washington at Dallas (FOX, 4:30 p.m. ET)


The late afternoon Thanksgiving Day contest features another rematch as Washington will look to avenge a 27-23 home loss to Dallas in Week 2. The ‘over’ (47.5) connected late in the fourth quarter of that game and is now on a 3-1 run in this series. The Redskins moved the ball (432 yards) at will in the loss and if it wasn’t for three short field goals (36, 29, 22), they likely would’ve captured the victory.


Washington has been a great ‘over’ bet all season (8-2) but its two worst offensive outings of the season did come on the road. One key to the number of high tickets has been the Redskins inability to slow anybody down in the red zone. They’ve allowed 26 touchdowns and only managed to stifle teams to 13 field goals. Offensively, they’ve had the opposite issue as they’ve settled for too many field goals (23) in comparison to touchdowns (26).


Dallas has leaned to the ‘under’ (6-4) this season and you can point to the improved defense as a key reason. The Cowboys “bend but don’t break” unit has been great in the red zone and they’re only allowing 18.7 PPG, which is a major improvement from the past two seasons (27 PPG, 23.4 PPG).


The total for Thursday opened 51 and has jumped up to 52 at a few betting shops and that number could be a tad inflated if you go on past history. In the last 20 meetings, the pair have only seen two of their encounters listed in the fifties and both games went ‘under.’


The Cowboys have been diced up recently in the holiday matchup, allowing 32 PPG the last four years and that includes a 38-31 win by Washington in the 2012 encounter. Based on the stats mentioned above, this year’s Dallas defensive unit is underrated and going against the betting public (86% Over) is never a bad idea.


Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)


This game had all the makings for a classic back-and-forth contest but with Colts QB Andrew Luck (concussion) expected to miss, the oddsmakers are expecting Pittsburgh (-8) to cruise for the second straight week as a road favorite. The total opened 54 and has dropped to 48 as of Wednesday afternoon.


Scott Tolzien is expected to get the start for Indianapolis and nobody knows what to expect from the backup. He’s only started two games in his four-year career and his numbers (1 TD, 5 INTs) are less than stellar.


Pittsburgh’s offense appears to be coming around, scoring 54 combined points the last two weeks and it should be able to move the ball on a Colts defense (397 YPG) that is third worst in the league. Plus, the Indianapolis defense is ranked 29th in takeaways and the secondary only has three interceptions.


Another reason to lean high is that the Steelers defense (363.6 YPG) doesn’t compare to units we’ve seen in previous seasons and they’ve been very suspect on the road (22 PPG).


Indy has watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 this season but the ‘under’ is 3-2 in the first five games at Lucas Oil Stadium. Pittsburgh is 7-3 to the ‘under’ and that includes a 4-1 mark on the road. Make a note that the Steelers have played in two primetime games this season and they scored 38 and 43 points and the ‘over’ connected easily in each contest.


This will be the 11th season that the NFL will have a primetime game on Thanksgiving. The ‘under’ has gone 6-4 in the first 10 matchups and home teams have posted a 6-4 mark as well.


Fearless Predictions


As I’ve said before in past pieces on this holiday, if you’re reading this then you’re probably betting and for that, be thankful that you can. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!


Best Over: Pittsburgh-Indianapolis 48


Best Under: Dallas-Washington 52


Best Team Total: Over Pittsburgh 28


Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):


Under 50 ½ Minnesota-Detroit
Under 61 Washington-Dallas
Over 39 Pittsburgh-Indianapolis

 

[CNOTES]

Thanksgiving Day Tips
November 23, 2016


Vikings at Lions (-2 ½, 41 ½) – 12:30 PM EST – CBS


Minnesota
Record: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1


Detroit
Record: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1


LAST WEEK


The Vikings snapped a four-game losing streak in last Sunday’s 30-24 home triumph over the Cardinals as two-point favorites. Minnesota’s offense has struggled all season as the Vikings relied on an interception return and a kickoff return for touchdowns to account for nearly half their points. The Vikings racked up 217 yards offensively, but intercepted Carson Palmer twice to improve to 4-1 at home this season.


The Lions won their sixth game this season when trailing at some point in the fourth quarter, knocking off the Jaguars, 26-19. Detroit picked up a late cover as 5 ½-point favorites with a field goal in the final minute as the Lions returned a punt and an interception for scores. Detroit’s rushing attack was limited to 14 yards on 21 carries, while quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 278 yards and has thrown only one total interception in five games at Ford Field (none in last four).

SERIES HISTORY


These two NFC North rivals met in Week 9 at U.S. Bank Stadium as Detroit left Minnesota with a 22-16 overtime victory as 4 ½-point underdogs. Stafford connected with wide receiver Golden Tate for a 28-yard touchdown in OT to give Detroit only its third win at Minnesota in the last 10 trips. The Vikings outgained the Lions, 337-311, the only time Minnesota has outgained an opponent in the past four contests. Since 2012, these teams have split four matchups at Ford Field, as the Vikings beat the Lions last season in Detroit, 28-19.


GETTING DEFENSIVE


The Lions are riding a four-game UNDER streak, while not allowing more than 20 points in any of their past four contests. Since the start of last season, Detroit has hit the OVER in eight of its last 12 games at Ford Field, but five of the past six matchups between the Lions and Vikings have finished UNDER the total.

TURKEY TIME


From 2004-2012, Detroit dropped nine consecutive games on Thanksgiving. However, the Lions have turned things around lately by winning three straight on Turkey Day, including a 45-14 blowout of the Eagles in 2015. The Vikings are visiting Detroit on Thanksgiving for the first time since 1995 when the Lions outlasted Minnesota in a 44-38 shootout.


PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook


Minnesota


S. Bradford – Total Completions
23 – OVER (-110)
23 – UNDER (-110)


S. Bradford – Total Touchdowns + Interceptions
2 – OVER (+130)
2 – UNDER (-150)


S. Diggs – Total Receiving Yards
75 ½ - OVER (-110)
75 ½ - UNDER (-110)


Detroit


M. Stafford – Total Gross Passing Yards
255 ½ - OVER (-110)
255 ½ - UNDER (-110)


M. Stafford – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (-120)
1 ½ - UNDER (EVEN)


M. Jones, Jr. – Total Receiving Yards
51 ½ - OVER (-110)
51 ½ - UNDER (-110)


Redskins at Cowboys (-7, 52) – 4:30 PM EST – FOX


Washington
Record: 6-3-1 SU, 7-3 ATS, 8-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1


Dallas
Record: 9-1 SU, 9-1 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 11/2


LAST WEEK


The Redskins began the season at 0-2, but Washington has won six of its last eight games to move into the second Wild Card position in the NFC. Last Sunday night, the Redskins chased the Packers, 42-24 to score a season-high in points, while covering as three-point favorites. Washington racked up over 500 yards of offense, including 373 yards and three touchdown passes from quarterback Kirk Cousins. Rookie running back Robert Kelley found the end zone three times as the former Tulane standout eclipsed the 87-yard mark for the third straight contest.


Dallas continues to win behind its rookie duo of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott as the Cowboys pulled away from the Ravens, 27-17 as seven-point home favorites. Prescott picked up his fifth consecutive multi-touchdown passing game with three touchdown tosses, including two to wide receiver Dez Bryant. Elliott finished three yards shy of 100 yards rushing as the Rookie of the Year candidate leads the NFL in rushing with 1,102 yards. Since losing the opener to the Giants, the Cowboys have won and covered their last four games at AT&T Stadium.

SERIES HISTORY


The road team has won each of the past six meetings between these NFC East rivals, including a Week 2 triumph by Dallas at FedEx Field. The Cowboys rallied past the Redskins, 27-23 to cash outright as 3 ½-point underdogs, as the two teams went back and forth after Dallas built an early 10-0 lead. Former Redskins’ running back Alfred Morris gave the Cowboys a 27-23 lead with less than five minutes left on a four-yard touchdown run. Both quarterbacks played well as Cousins threw for 364 yards and a touchdown, while Prescott picked up his first NFL win by racking up 292 yards through the air.


OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS


The Redskins have been one of the top OVER teams in the league by cashing in eight of 10 games, but both UNDERS have come away from FedEx Field. The Cowboys are riding a 5-2 run to the UNDER the last seven contests, including 2-1 the last three at home.


TURKEY TIME


Dallas rode a four-game winning streak from 2006-2010 on Thanksgiving Day, but the Cowboys have lost four of their last six on this holiday. The Panthers ripped the Cowboys last Thanksgiving, 33-14, the second straight Turkey Day defeat by double-digits. Washington shocked Dallas in its previous Thanksgiving meeting in 2012 by a 38-31 count as Robert Griffin III torched the Cowboys for 304 yards and four touchdown passes.


PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook


Washington


K. Cousins – Total Completions
26 – OVER (-110)
26 – UNDER (-110)


K. Cousins – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (-150)
1 ½ - UNDER (+130)


J. Crowder – Total Receiving Yards
53 ½ - OVER (-110)
53 ½ - UNDER (-110)


Dallas


D. Prescott – Total Completions
21 ½ - OVER (-110)
21 ½ - UNDER (-110)


D. Prescott – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (-150)
1 ½ - UNDER (+130)


E. Elliott – Total Rushing Yards
105 ½ - OVER (-110)
105 ½ - UNDER (-110)

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Turkey Day edition


Dallas has been an absolute force in the ground game this season, ranking second in both overall rushing yards per game (156.7) and home rushing yards per contest (157.0).


Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3, 42.5)


Vikings' stout run defense vs. Lions' lack of ground scoring


Anyone who wrote off the Vikings defense going into its Week 11 encounter with the Arizona Cardinals is probably giving that stance a second thought. The Vikings D/ST had a sensational day, generating a pair of field-length touchdowns on the way to a pivotal 30-24 victory over the Cards. And while David Johnson did plenty of damage on the ground, Minnesota remains one of the stingiest teams when it comes to rushing scores; the Lions are about to find that out first-hand.


The Vikings have limited opponents to just five rushing touchdowns through their first 10 games of the season. Johnson's one-yard scoring scamper with 4:07 remaining in the first quarter is the only rushing TD Minnesota has surrendered in its previous three games. That stretch includes a showdown against Detroit in which the Lions prevailed 22-16, but averaged just 3.9 yards per carry - a number that falls to 2.3 if you take out Theo Riddick's 42-yard run - and didn't have a rush attempt inside the 10.


That pass-heavy red-zone strategy has been the Lions' modus operandi so far this season. Detroit enters its Week 12 encounter with just four rushing touchdowns on the year - and one of those came courtesy TE Eric Ebron, who had a one-yard scoring plunge in Sunday's 26-19 plunge over Jacksonville. The Lions' ineptitude at rushing in the red zone, combined with the Vikings' aptitude at preventing rushing scores, could mean bad news for the Detroit offense in a challenging divisional tilt.


Daily fantasy watch: Vikings D/ST




Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 50)


Redskins' wretched road rush D vs. Cowboys' dominance in Big D


The latest edition of the Thanksgiving showdown between the Redskins and Cowboys takes on added significance this year, with the Cowboys riding an incredible nine-game winning streak and the Redskins battling with the New York Giants for second place in the NFC East. Yet, while both of these teams have plenty of firepower, the Cowboys enjoy a significant mismatch that grows even bigger in the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium.


The Redskins rank in the lower third of the league in run defense, allowing just over 112 yards per game on the ground. That number climbs to 121 yards away from Washington, the eighth-worst road mark in football. While Washington has boasted a much more robust run defense at home - even limiting Dallas rookie superstar Ezekiel Elliott to 83 yards in a Week 2 defeat - the Redskins have been gashed for six rushing touchdowns in four road games. They'll play four of their final six games outside Washington.


That difficult stretch starts with what will easily be their toughest remaining test. Dallas has been an absolute force in the ground game this season, ranking second in both overall rushing yards per game (156.7) and home rushing yards per contest (157.0). Look for Elliott to exploit Washington's weaknesses on the defensive line - aided, of course, by the top offensive line in football - and make things extraordinally difficult for the Redskins in hostile territory.


Daily fantasy watch: RB Ezekiel Elliott




Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (OFF)


Steelers' third-down road shutdown vs. Colts' home conversion woes


The narrative just won't go away: The Pittsburgh Steelers are a far worse offensive team on the road than they are at home. And it's hard to argue that point when you consider that, over his last 19 road games, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown just 19 TD passes compared to 55 over his previous 19 home games. But this entry focuses on the Steelers' impressive third-down road defense, and how it matches up favorably with a Colts team struggling to convert on third down at home.


Pittsburgh has been one of the toughest teams in the league when it comes to home teams facing third-down situations, with the Steelers allowing a minuscule 33.3-percent conversion rate. That's tied with the Miami Dolphins for the second-best rate, behind only the Oakland Raiders (28.8). And while facing the Browns in Cleveland doesn't hurt - Pittsburgh held them to 4-for-15 on third downs in Sunday's win - the Steelers have been almost as stingy against the rest of their road opponents.


That bodes poorly for the Colts, who come into the game as a slight underdog despite having home-field advantage. Only six teams have been less successful at converting third downs at home than Indianapolis, whose 37.1-percent success rate is down from the 40 percent mark it posted a season ago. Whether it's Andrew Luck or Scott Tolzien under center, look for the Colts to try and avoid having to convert third downs against a Pittsburgh defensive unit that has proven adept at forcing home teams to punt.


Daily fantasy fade: WR Donte Moncrief

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 12


Thurs – Nov. 24

Minnesota at Detroit, 12:30 PM ET
Minnesota: 9-2 ATS as an underdog
Detroit: 14-31 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Washington at Dallas, 4:30 PM ET
Washington: 4-13 ATS after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8
Dallas: 7-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins


Pittsburgh at Indianapolis, 8:30 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 1-5 ATS off a win against a division rival
Indianapolis: 11-1 ATS when playing on a Thursday


-------------------------------

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 12


Thursday's games


Vikings (6-4) @ Lions (6-4)— Battle for first place in NFC North. Detroit kicked 58-yard FG on last play of regulation, won first meeting 22-16 in OT at Minnesota three weeks ago. This rivalry has been swept in four of last five years; Lions are 7-5 in last 12 games with Vikings, 4-2 in last six played here. Minnesota snapped 4-game skid with win over Arizona; they’ve scored a TD on defense/special teams in 4 of their 6 wins. Vikings lost last three road games, by 11-10-6 points- they’re 1-1 as road dogs. All 10 Detroit games were decided by 7 or less points; Lions trailed all 10 games in 4th quarter- they’re 4-1 at home, 2-2 as home favorites. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year. Last four Detroit games stayed; under total; under is 4-1 in Viking road games.

Redskins (6-3-1) @ Cowboys (9-1)— Two hot teams; Washington is 6-1-1 in last eight games, Dallas has won/covered nine straight games. Really short week for Redskins, who have long road trip, plus they played Sunday NIGHT. This is only 4th true road game for Washington; they are 2-1 in first three, all decided by 6 or less points- two of those were in New Jersey/Baltimore, very short trips- they also had neutral field game in London. Dallas hasn’t lost since Opening Night vs Giants; they’re 3-1 as home favorites this year. Cowboy opponents are just 8 for last 28 on third down. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC East divisional games. Over is 4-1 in last five Redskin games, 2-5 in last seven Dallas games.


Steelers (5-5) @ Colts (5-5)— Colt QB Luck had concussion in win over Titans; check status for this game; his backup is Tolzien (0-1-1 as NFL starter, with ’13 Packers). Pitt is 13-2 in last 15 series games, winning last two 51-34/45-10; they outgained Colts 522-240 in LY’s game. Steelers won three of last four visits here, but last one was in 2011. Pitt snapped 4-game skid with lackluster 24-9 win in Cleveland; they’re 2-3 on road, with losses by 31-15-7 points. Only one of 10 Steeler games was decided by less than 7 points. Indy won three of last four games, is 3-2 at home, 2-2-1 vs spread as an underdog this year. NFC North teams are 8-18 vs spread in non-divisional games, 4-10 on road. AFC South teams are 13-14 vs spread, 7-7 at home. Steelers allowed 16 or less points in their wins, 21+ in their losses.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Thursday, November 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thanksgiving Day NFL betting preview: Vikings at Lions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Lions beat the Vikings 22-16 in overtime in Week 9, as Matthew Stafford hit Golden Tate for a 28-yard touchdown in the extra period.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 43)

A showdown for the top spot in the NFC North takes place Thursday, when the Detroit Lions host the Minnesota Vikings in their traditional Thanksgiving Day contest. Detroit has won five of its last six games to surge into a tie atop the division with Minnesota, which snapped its four-game skid last week.

The Lions beat the Vikings 22-16 in overtime in Week 9, as Matt Prater made a game-tying 58-yard field goal at the end of regulation and Matthew Stafford hit Golden Tate for a 28-yard touchdown in the extra period. The late-game heroics were nothing new for Detroit, which has had all 10 of its games decided by seven points or fewer - with its six wins coming by a total of 24. "I think they've done a great job at the end of ballgames, including the one we played,” Vikings coach Mike Zimmer told reporters. “The biggest thing is once you start winning, you develop confidence, and that's what they've done at the end of ballgames." Minnesota’s confidence was trending in the opposite direction with four straight losses before holding on for a 30-24 home triumph over Arizona on Sunday.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as 2.5-point home favorites over their division rivals from Minnesota and, as of Tuesday evening, that line hasn't moved. The total hit the board at 42.5 and was bumped up to 43 on Monday morning. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome.

INJURY REPORT:

Vikings - CB M. Alexander (Probable, shoulder), LB C. Greenway (Questionable, personal), S A. Sendejo (Questionable, illness), WR S. Diggs (Questionable, knee), DT T. Johnson (Questionable, illness), CB T. Newman (Questionable, neck), CB M. Sherels (Questionable, ribs), LB E. Kendricks (Questionable, hip), CB C. Munnerlyn (Questionable, ankle), QB T. Heinicke (Questionable, foot), DT S. Floyd (Questionable, knee), C Z. Kerin (Questionable, hand), S H. Smith (Questionable, ankle), RB A. Peterson (Mid December, knee), G M. Harris (Questionable, illness), T J. Long (I-R, achilles), T A. Smith (I-R, tricep), T M. Kalil (I-R, hip), QB T. Bridgewater (I-R, knee), DT S. Crichton (I-R, undisclosed), CB J. Price (I-R, knee), S A. Exum Jr. (I-R, leg).

Lions - RB T. Riddick (Probable, ankle), CB A. Barnes (Questionable, hamstring), S D. Carey (Questionable, hamstring), DE E. Ansah (Questionable, ankle), C G. Glasgow (Questionable, ankle), DT K. Thornton (Questionable, foot), LB D. Levy (Out, quadricep), DE A. Bryant (Elig Week 13, suspension), TE B. Pettigrew (Doubtful, knee), RB A. Abdullah (Questionable, foot), TE C. Wick (I-R, knee), TE T. Wright (I-R, knee), LB J. Bostic (I-R, foot), LS J. Landes (I-R, shoulder), CB I. Wells (I-R, knee), WR R. Spadola (I-R, pectoral).

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Minnesota’s league-worst offense had another rough showing last week with 217 total yards, but a defensive score and a special-teams touchdown helped make up for it. The Vikings could be without a major offensive weapon in Stefon Diggs, who has averaged 10 catches over his last four games and ranks second in the NFC with 67 receptions but is questionable with a knee injury. Minnesota’s third-ranked pass defense will be put to the test but is coming off a strong outing in which it limited Arizona to 155 yards.

ABOUT THE LIONS (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Detroit has become increasingly one-dimensional on offense, all but abandoning the run in recent weeks and finishing with just 14 rushing yards against Jacksonville on Sunday. Running back Theo Riddick is nursing an ankle injury but is expected to play, but he is a bigger factor for Stafford and the passing game than the ground attack. The defense has been excellent of late, holding the last three opponents to an average of 297 total yards and forcing three turnovers last week.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 14-3 in Vikings last 17 vs. NFC North.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home favorite Lions are picking 54 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 62 percent of the totals wagers.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Thursday, November 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thanksgiving Day NFL betting preview: Redskins at Cowboys
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kirk Cousins is coming off a sensational performance against Green Bay in which he recorded 375 yards in the air and three scores.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 51)

The Dallas Cowboys were on the verge of a falling into an early 0-2 hole this season before rallying for a 27-23 victory at the Washington Redskins in Week 2. That comeback provided the impetus for a nine-game winning streak for the red-hot Cowboys, who will host the arch-rival Redskins in a rematch on Thanksgiving Day.

Dallas overcame another slow start to beat the Baltimore Ravens 27-17 on Sunday and maintain a two-game lead over the New York Giants atop the NFC East - with Washington sitting another half-game back. “We’re not going to spend a lot of time on that, to be honest with you,” Cowboys coach Jason Garrett said of his team's tear, especially with such a quick turnaround for Thursday's game. The Redskins have dug themselves out of an 0-2 hole to stay within striking range of Dallas by dismantling the Green Bay Packers 42-24 on Sunday night to improve to 6-1-1 in their last eight. “It’s one game,” cautioned Washington wideout DeSean Jackson. "This next game will determine a lot. If we go out and knock them out, a lot of people will see what we’re about.”

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened as 7-point home favorites, the line went down to -6.5 on Monday morning, jumped all of the way up to -7.5 on Monday afternoon, and settled back to the key opening number of -7 on Tuesday. The total hit the board at 48.5 and rose steadily to 51 by Tuesday evening. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Conditions are expected to be clear with temperatures in the upper-60's on Thursday afternoon in Arlington.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "These have been two of the most profitable teams in the NFL this season. The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS, while the Redskins are 7-3 ATS, so combined they are 16-4 ATS. Dallas has been a 7-point favorite or less in every game this season, despite going 9-1 SU. That is one of the reasons they have been a pointspread covering machine. However, the oddsmakers will now have no choice but to start inflating the lines on the Cowboys' games going forward."

INJURY REPORT:

Redskins - S W. Blackmon (Probable, thumb), WR J. Crowder (Probable, back), T M. Moses (Probable, ankle), RB M. Jones (Questionable, knee), LS N. Sundberg (Questionable, back), DE C. Baker (Questionable, hamstring), WR D. Jackson (Questionable, shoulder), T T. Nsekhe (Questionable, ankle), LB P. Smith (Questionable, back), T T. Williams (Elig Week 14, suspension), S D. Bruton Jr (Out, concussion), WR J. Doctson (Out, achilles).

Cowboys - WR D. Bryant (Probable, back), OL C. Green (Questionable, foot), DE D. Lawrence (Questionable, back), T T. Smith (Questionable, back), CB M. Claiborne (Out, hernia), S B. Church (Out, forearm), DE R. Gregory (Elig Week 15, suspension), RB D. McFadden (Probable, elbow), OL L. Collins (Doubtful, toe).

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (6-3-1 SU, 7-3 ATS, 8-2 O/U): Kirk Cousins threw a killer interception that led to the winning touchdown in the first matchup against Dallas, but he is coming off a sensational performance against Green Bay in which he recorded 375 yards in the air and three scores while posting a season-best 145.8 passer rating. Jackson returned from injury Sunday to bolster a deep receiving corps that includes Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and tight end Jordan Reed, while rookie Rob Kelley has invigorated the ground game. Kelley rushed for 137 yards and three TDs on Sunday and has amassed 321 yards in his first three starts. Washington is sixth in the league with 27 sacks, including four versus Dallas in Week 2.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (9-1 SU, 9-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Dallas continues to ride the rookie tandem of quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott, the two main cogs for an offense that has produced 400 total yards in eight straight games. Elliott has run for nine touchdowns and is leading the NFL with 1,102 yards rushing while Prescott has relegated Tony Romo to benchwarmer, throwing for 867 yards, eight scores and zero interceptions in his last three games. Wideout Dez Bryant, who missed more than a month due to injury, had a pair of scoring receptions Sunday and went over 100 yards in the first meeting. Dallas is suspect against the pass, allowing an average of 263.5 yards.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Cowboys are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
* Over is 9-1 in Redskins last 10 vs. NFC.
* Redskins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Dallas.

CONSENSUS: The road underdog Skins are picking 59 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 72 percent of the totals wagers.