Cnotes 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 10


Things are positively rosy in Atlanta, where the Falcons' offense continues to steamroll opponents.


Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5, 42.5)


Houston's red-zone follies vs. Jaguars' clutch defense


The Texans are the toast of a mediocre AFC South division, entering Week 10 action at 5-3 - but with a 5-0 record at home and an 0-3 mark away from Houston, they'll need to figure things out on the road if they hope to fend off Indianapolis and Tennessee. And that won't happen if the Texans continue to struggle in the red zone, as they have for most of the season. Correcting that might prove tricky this week as Houston visits a Jacksonville defense that has been particularly stingy inside the 20.


With Lamar Miller struggling to be the No. 1 back Houston needs, and quarterback Brock Osweiler showing major growing pains in his first year as a starter, the Texans have turned red-zone visits into touchdowns on a league-worst 38.1 percent of their drives so far this season. That rate dips to an abysmal 33.3 percent in three road games, and is miles below the 56.5-percent red zone success rate the Texans posted en route to last year's division crown.


The Jaguars' defense has been maligned as a disappointment following preseason vows that it would be a vastly improved unit - but it has flexed its muscles in the red zone, limiting opponents to a 48.4-percent touchdown rate. Only four teams have been more effective at limiting red-zone touchdowns, and the Jaguars pitched a shutout last time out, holding Kansas City without a red-zone touchdown despite dropping a 19-14 decision. Don't trust the Houston offense this week.


Daily fantasy fade: RB Lamar Miller




Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (PK, 50)


Falcons' outstanding O-line vs. Eagles' right-side D-line deficiencies


Things are positively rosy in Atlanta, where the Falcons' offense continues to steamroll opponents on the strength of the best season of quarterback Matt Ryan's career. But he isn't the only reason why Atlanta is the runaway NFL leader in scoring; the Falcons' offensive line has been one of the team's biggest bright spots, and is in line for more success this weekend against a Philadelphia defensive line that hasn't been nearly as good as advertised.


Anyone who follows the Falcons with regularity knows that center Alex Mack is the engine of the offensive line, evidenced by his ProFootballFocus grade of 86.2 - the third-best mark at his position. RT Ryan Schraeder (82.6), LG Andy Levitre (82.1) and LT Jake Matthews (74.4) have also excelled, giving Ryan clean pockets all season long while opening up big holes for the running back tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.


They'll match up Sunday afternoon against the host Eagles, who have stars of their own on the defensive end but might struggle to contain the Atlanta rush attack, particularly on the right side. DRE Connor Barwin (49.2) is ranked 77th at the position according to PFF, while DRT Beau Allen (41.3) is 108th. A mismatch that significant is sure to make a difference come Sunday, so look for the Falcons to exploit it all afternoon long.


Daily fantasy watch: RB Devonta Freeman




Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (-3, 44)


Chiefs' extra possessions vs. Panthers' turnover troubles


Opponents beware: The Chiefs' already impressive defense is starting to gain momentum heading into the second half of the season. And that doesn't even include the pivotal return of LB Justin Houston, who was activated off the PUP list on Wednesday and could be in the lineup this weekend. His presence can only bolster a Kansas City defensive unit that has forced a whole lot of turnovers lately - and is primed to keep that run going against clumsy Carolina.


The Chiefs have fashioned a plus-8 turnover differential over their previous three games - far and away the best total in the league over that span, and a major reason why Kansas City enters Week 10 on a four-game winning streak. It leads the NFL in overall turnover differential per game (plus-1.6), and is no stranger to the rarefied air; the Chiefs led the league with a 0.9 per-game turnover differential in 2015 en route to an impressive 11-5 showing.


The Panthers aren't as bad as they were earlier this season, but they still have to overcome a barrage of turnovers that has them at minus-0.8 per game on the season, the fifth-worst rate in the league entering Week 10. That average inexplicably balloons to minus-1.8 per game at home, tied for the worst in the league. Cam Newton might find himself running for his life Sunday - and if that happens, the Chiefs are a good bet to rack up more turnovers.


Daily fantasy fade: QB Cam Newton




Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (-7.5, 49.5)


Seahawks' third-down struggles vs. Patriots' drive extension skills


The Seattle defense has been mostly good this season, but it would look even better if it could find a way to limit opponents' third-down conversions. Teams have extended drives against the Seahawks at an alarming rate - and that bodes poorly for the visitors this weekend as they take on the powerhouse Patriots, who look to extend their winning streak to five games. New England does many thing well - and converting third downs is one of them.


Seattle pulled out a 31-25 win over the plucky Buffalo Bills last weekend, but the game probably shouldn't have been so close. The Bills were a stunning 12-for-17 on third downs, its best showing of the season. The Seahawks have allowed teams to turn third downs into first downs on 58.5 percent of their opportunities over the last three weeks, and at a 42.9-percent rate for the season; only six teams - including minnows San Francisco and Cleveland - have been worse.


That generosity could be the Seahawks' undoing this weekend, particularly against a New England team that has been nearly unbeatable at home with Tom Brady under center. The Patriots have converted 57.1 percent of their third downs over the previous three games to improve to 47.2 percent for the season - the fourth-best mark in football. If Seattle gives Brady that much more time, this game could be over by halftime.


Daily fantasy watch: TE Rob Gronkowski

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Underdogs: Week 10 pointspread picks and predictions


The Dallas Cowboys have become the NFL's best bet at 7-1 SU and ATS. How can you pass on the points when the 'Boys take on the Steelers in Week 10?


So the shock is wearing off. The results from this past Tuesday are real and the world is still (currently) rotating.


Donald Trump is President Elect of the United States and since this is an underdog column, it must be noted that Trump pulled off one of the bigger upsets in recent memory when he defeated Hillary Clinton.


Even as polls were closing on Election Night, Trump was as much as a 7/1 underdog, compared to Clinton’s -1,500. But that didn’t matter, as the numbers poured in and the reality that the former reality TV star would be the next President set in.


Now we get to see what “Make America Great Again” is really all about.


Luckily for us, America is already pretty great and we have to look no further than some of the Week 10 NFL matchups as an example.


This week features the classic matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers, and is made even better now that both teams are relevant again. However, unlike the election, it feels like the wrong side is favored heading into this All-American showdown.


The Cowboys are heading into Pittsburgh as 2.5-point road pups, which seems like a reasonable line on the surface. But if you dig into the numbers, that spread looks better and better for our purposes.


First of all, let’s state the obvious. The Cowboys have passed every test since Week 1, going 7-0 SU and ATS in the last seven games to not only sit atop the NFC standings, but also become the NFL’s best bet.


The Cowboys are, of course, led by their dynamic duo of rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot, and match up very well with the Steelers, even on the road.


Elliot and the Cowboys' fantastic offensive line (maybe the best position group in the whole NFL), lead the league in rushing at 165.2 yards per game, but it could be Dak who's the key this week. Prescott is completing 66 percent of his passes for 2,020 yards 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions.


Meanwhile, the Steelers secondary ranks 24th in passing yards against per game, so look for Dallas to try to keep Pittsburgh’s defense off balance with the run game and then attack down field with playaction and roll outs.


Additionally, Ben Roethlisberger didn’t look anywhere near 100 percent in his return to the Steelers lineup, completing just 23 of 45 passes for 264 yards in last week’s loss to Baltimore.


My gut reaction is to just let the streak ride (which I’m sure my boss and diehard Cowboys fan loves to hear), even without looking further into this game. But when you do, Cowboys fans should be cautiously optimistic their red-hot run can continue.


Pick: Cowboys +2.5




Houston Texans (+2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars


When the line opened at pick'em for this AFC South matchup, I hoped the Texans would eventually be faded down to betting underdogs. I just didn’t think the move would be this drastic.


Obviously, the Texans have struggled on the road this season, going 0-3 SU and ATS away from home, but a matchup with the Jaguars could be all Houston needs to change that. Also, it should be noted, Jacksonville is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS at home on the year.


Houston’s third-ranked defense should pose problems for a struggling Jags offense, that has committed eight turnovers during the team's current three-game losing streak. More specifically, Houston ranks second in passing defense and will look to put pressure on Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles, who is completing just 59.2 percent of his passes and has 10 interceptions this season.


As inconsistent as Houston’s offense has been (*cough* Brock Osweiler) I can see the Texans putting a stranglehold on the division.


Pick: Houston +2.5




Seattle Seahawks (+7.5) at New England Patriots


This may seem like I’m jumping on the Seahawks bandwagon a little early, but the way Seattle’s offense looked last week has to be encouraging.


Russell Wilson is finally healthy, Jimmy Graham played like the beast he was in New Orleans (plus with no Jamie Collins in New England, who will cover him?), and the defense is as tough as ever.


I know the Patriots are rolling, going 4-0 SU and ATS since the return of the Golden Boy (and potential Trump endorser?) Tom Brady, but this seems like too many points.


Pick: Seahawks +7.5


Last Week: 1-1-1 ATS
Season: 15-11-1 ATS

 

[CNOTES]

Essential Week 10 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday


Can Big Ben, Antonio Brown and the Steelers halt the Cowboys' win streak? Pittsburgh is currently 2.5-pt chalk.


Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 42)


* Houston has failed to record 300 total yards of offense in three of its last four games and four of its last six. The ground game has been effective enough with Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue sharing the load, but Brock Osweiler has been inconsistent and has hurt the Texans with nine interceptions. The defense is outstanding against the pass but has had a tough time stopping the run and has recorded just six takeaways – second-fewest in the league.


* Jacksonville is coming off its best offensive output of the year thanks to a season-high 205 rushing yards against the Chiefs. Chris Ivory led the resurgent ground game and could continue to see a greater share of the work than T.J. Yeldon, while quarterback Blake Bortles racked up 54 rushing yards last week but remains inconsistent in the passing game. The Jaguars also turned in their best defensive effort of the year against Kansas City and boast a top-five pass defense, but they haven’t forced a turnover since Week 4 against Indianapolis.


LINE HISTORY: This AFC South battle opened as a pick, early action was on the visiting Texas up as high as 1.5-points, since the line has flipped to -2.5 Saturday morning. The total opened at 42.5 and has dropped to 42. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS


Texans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC South.
Texans are 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Over is 5-1 in Texans last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 6-1 in Jaguars last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Jacksonville.




Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints (-3, 49)


* While Denver is yielding a league-low 183.3 passing yards per contest, its own aerial attack is not faring well, as Trevor Siemian is completing only 59.8 percent of his attempts and has thrown for just 10 touchdowns, tying him for 16th in the league, with five interceptions. He has performed well on the road, however, recording eight TDs while being picked off only once in four contests. Devontae Booker has rushed for a touchdown in two of his last three games and ranks third among NFL rookies with 320 yards on the ground.


* Brees continues to etch his name in the record book after recording his 55th career game with at least 300 passing yards and three touchdowns - the most in history - and became the first player to register 30 performances of 300 yards, three TDs and no interceptions. The 37-year-old is one scoring pass away from joining Peyton Manning (539) and Brett Favre (508) as the only quarterbacks to throw for 450 in their careers. Mark Ingram is coming off a 158-yard rushing effort that included a career-best 75-yard touchdown run, which also was the second-longest in franchise history.

LINE HISTORY: New Orleans opened as 1.5-point home favorites and the line has been bet up to 3. The total opened at 48 and has risen one full point to 49.
Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS


Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games in Week 10.
Over is 8-1-1 in Saints last 10 home games.




Los Angeles Rams at N.Y. Jets (-1, 40)


* Keenum has two touchdowns against five interceptions in his last two games and coach Jeff Fisher said it was time to give running back Todd Gurley more touches. What has he been waiting for? Gurley, who has carried the ball just five times combined in the fourth quarter of his last three games, emerged as one of the game's rising stars last season by rushing for 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns on the way to Rookie of the Year honors, but he may find things rough facing New York's fifth-ranked rushing defense. Led by Aaron Donald, who sacked Cam Newton twice last week, the Rams are allowing 20.9 points a game and got back the services of top cornerback Trumaine Johnson last week, who is sure to shadow Jets wideout Brandon Marshall


* Bowles benched star defenders Mo Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson for the first quarter of last week's loss at Miami due to team violations and continued the upheaval this week, waiving defensive lineman Jarvis Jenkins and placing left tackle Ryan Clady (shoulder) on injured reserve on Wednesday. The turmoil seems to be a sign that Bowles' days may be numbered. “I haven’t done a good job,” he said. “We’re 3-6. It speaks for itself. I’ve got to do a lot better job coaching.” After a brutal schedule left them 1-5 to start the season, the Jets responded with a two-game winning streak, but their three wins have come against teams with a combined eight wins and last week's disappointing 27-23 loss to the Dolphins appears to be the end of their playoff hopes.


LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Jets as 2.5-point home favorites and has been getting bet down all week to 1. The total opened 41 and was quickly dropped to 40, where it has remained all week. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS


Rams are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 8-0 in Rams last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 8-1 in Rams last 9 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 3-0-1 in Jets last 4 home games.
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.




Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (1, 50)


* Ryan's success routinely hinges on the electric Julio Jones (NFL-best 970 yards), and the stud wide receiver hasn't been shy about giving Philadelphia fits in his career - highlighted by a nine-catch, 141-yard, two-touchdown performance in last season's opener. The 27-year-old Jones also found the end zone versus the Buccaneers on a 3-yard fade and faces an Eagles' secondary that yielded four touchdowns to the Giants' wideouts. While Jones has excelled, running back Devonta Freeman was limited to just 112 yards rushing during the two-game absence of Tevin Coleman (hamstring), who expects to be back on Sunday.


* Although Ryan Mathews has scored in back-to-back contests, fellow running back Darren Sproles has assumed the lead role in the backfield. "By stats and by what you're seeing, I would say that Darren is the No. 1 back right now," coach Doug Pederson said of the 5-foot-6 Sproles. "Obviously we haven't hung our hat on one guy, but we tend to lean more toward Darren Sproles. It's hard to take him off the field right now." The 33-year-old Sproles, who is averaging nearly five yards a carry and 10 yards per catch in eight games, rolled up 126 scrimmage yards (76 receiving, 50 rushing) in the last encounter with Atlanta.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with Eagles a 1-point home favorite and bettors jumped all over the road team bumping that line as high as Falcons +2, before it settled at 1. The total opened at 49.5 and rose as high as 50.5 before settling at 50. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS


Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Over is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 vs. NFC.
Over is 11-1 in Eagles last 12 vs. NFC.




Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (-3, 44)


* Kansas City’s offense doesn’t put up flashy numbers, but Smith takes care of the ball and Ware has been a workhorse when healthy. Getting Houston back in the mix would add another pass-rushing element to a stout defense that already includes linebacker Dee Ford, who is tied for third in the league with nine sacks – eight of which have come in the last five games. The Chiefs’ biggest weakness is stopping the run, which could be an issue against a strong Carolina ground attack.


* Carolina’s offense sputtered to a season-low 244 total yards against the Rams, but the Panthers did not commit a turnover for the first time this season. The running game hasn’t been as effective as last season, but quarterback Cam Newton and running back Jonathan Stewart still form a formidable duo for any defense to stop. The Panthers have stifled the run but struggled against the pass despite leading the NFC with 24 sacks.


LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 3-point home favorites and the total at 44. Bettors appear to be happy with both numbers as neither has moved as of Saturday. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS


Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 11-2 in Panthers last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.




Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2.5, 45.5)


* The best news from Chicago coming out of the bye week was on the injury report, where nose tackle Eddie Goldman (ankle), guards Kyle Long (triceps) and Josh Sitton (ankle) and wide receiver Eddie Royal (toe) all were listed as limited but participated in practice. The returns of Long and Sitton should help an offensive line that dominated the Vikings and gave Jordan Howard enough room to run for 153 yards. Royal's return would open the outside for Cutler, who spent more time cutting up the middle of the field with tight end Zach Miller and running backs Howard and Jeremy Langford in his return than he did throwing wide to Alshon Jeffery (four catches, 63 yards).


* Tampa Bay is allowing an average of 29 points - 29th in the NFL - and 398.9 yards (28th), and was carved up for 344 yards and four TDs by Matt Ryan in a 43-28 home loss to Atlanta last week. Winston threw three scoring passes without an interception in the setback and finished the game on the bench after suffering a knee injury but insists he is physically ready to go this week. Winston could get some help in the running game this week from Doug Martin (hamstring), who returned to practice for the first time since Week 2 and is questionable.


LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened as 1-point road favorites coming off the bye week and has been rising to 2.5. The total opened at 45.5 and has remained there all week. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS


Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Over is 10-2 in Bears last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 home games.
Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.




Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (3, 49.5)


* Green Bay has been forced to use wide receiver Ty Montgomery in the backfield since Eddie Lacy suffered a season-ending injury in Week 6, but running back James Starks practiced on a limited basis Thursday and could rejoin the lineup for the first time since Week 5. The Packers also could get another weapon back on offense as tight end Jared Cook, sidelined since Week 3, also practiced Thursday. Wideout Jordy Nelson admitted his surgically repaired knee is not 100 percent, but he has seven touchdowns on the season. Linebacker Clay Matthews (hamstring) missed practice Thursday and could sit out his third straight game.


* Tennessee features the league's second-leading rusher in DeMarco Murray, who has an AFC-best 807 yards but was limited in practice Thursday. With backup Derrick Henry unable to practice due to a calf injury, the Titans need Murray as they pit their third-ranked running attack against a Green Bay defense that is allowing a league-low 75.8 yards on the ground. Quarterback Marcus Mariota, accounted for four touchdowns and threw for a season-high 313 yards at San Diego, has connected on five scoring passes to Rishard Matthews in the last five games. Tennessee is the only team in the league that has yet to force a fumble.


LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as 2.5-point road favorites and they have been bet up slightly to the current number of 3. The total opened as 48.5 and has been bet up to 49.5 as of Saturday morning. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS


Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 6-0 in Titans last 6 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.




Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-2.5, 42)


* Quarterback Sam Bradford has nine touchdowns against only one interception, but he has been limited to one scoring pass in five of his seven starts and doesn't have the luxury of leaning on the running game without Adrian Peterson. Bradford went to the air 40 times in last week's 22-16 overtime loss against visiting Detroit while Minnesota managed 78 yards rushing on 25 attempts. Stefon Diggs had a season-high 13 catches last week while Cordarrelle Patterson is averaging five receptions over the last five games. Nose tackle Linval Joseph and cornerbacks Captain Munnerlyn and Marcus Sherels did not practice Wednesday or Thursday.


* Cousins threw for two scores and a season-high 458 yards in the draw with Cincinnati, but he will face the league's top-ranked scoring defense without his Pro Bowl left tackle. Trent Williams will serve the first of his four-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Rookie Robert Kelley rushed for 87 yards against the Bengals in his first career start and will get the nod against Minnesota's rugged defense. Deep threat DeSean Jackson missed practice against Thursday, but tight end Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder each had nine receptions and a touchdown in London.


LINE HISTORY: The Redskins opened the week as 2.5-point home favorites and were bet up slightly to 3 midweek, before the number faded back to 2.5 Saturday morning. The total opened at 42.5 and dropped a half point to the current number of 42. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS


Vikings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Under is 13-3 in Vikings last 16 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-0 in Redskins last 5 games following a bye week.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.



Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-4.5, 48)


* With Ajayi's workload at an all-time high, quarterback Ryan Tannehill is averaging 201.7 yards per contest during Miami's three-game winning streak -- with just 149 coming against the Jets. "Whatever it takes," Tannehill said. "Obviously, (149 yards) was plenty last week. If we need 300 this week, then that's what we need. It's just a matter of game by game (doing) whatever it takes to move the chains and put points on the board." Jarvis Landry, who has a team-leading 49 receptions, sat out Thursday's practice with a shoulder injury and Kenny Stills did the same with an ailing calf, but both wideouts are expected to play on Sunday.


* Buoyed by Gordon's presence in the backfield, Philip Rivers continued his strong season by throwing for two touchdowns and a 117.6 rating last week. The veteran Rivers had an easy time of it in his last meeting with Miami, amassing 311 passing yards and three scores in a 30-14 victory on Dec. 20. Trusted target Antonio Gates has reeled in a touchdown pass in consecutive outings, increasing his total to a team-high four and career tally to 108. Tyrell Williams also had a touchdown reception last week and leads the club with 595 yards receiving.

LINE HISTORY: The Chargers opened as 3.5-home favorites and have been bet up a full point to 4.5. The total opened up at 47.5 and was quickly bet up to 48.5 before fading late in the week to the current number 48. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS

Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
Under is 13-3 in Dolphins last 16 games in Week 10.
Over is 7-1 in Chargers last 8 games on grass.
Under is 12-0 in the last 12 meetings.
Home team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.



San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-14, 48)


* Kaepernick showed signs of his former self last week, passing for 398 yards and two touchdowns in a losing effort. He also ran for 23 yards, raising his career total of 2,005 to join Steve Young as the only quarterbacks in franchise history to reach the 2,000-yard plateau. Vance McDonald has registered two touchdowns of at least 65 yards this year, making him the fourth NFL tight end since 1970 and first since Shannon Sharpe in 1997 to do so in the one season.


* The injury bug continues to bite Arizona as it lost tackle Jared Veldheer to a torn biceps tendon and safety Tyrann Mathieu to a shoulder subluxation in its loss to Carolina in Week 8. The Cardinals, who hope to have Mathieu back in a week or two, also have 10 players on season-ending injured reserve. Johnson leads the NFC with eight rushing touchdowns and ranks first in the entire league with 1,112 yards from scrimmage, including a franchise-record streak of eight straight games with at least 100.


LINE HISTORY: The Cards opened as massive 13-point home favorites and has been steadily rising to 14. The total opened at 49 and dropped to 48 that day and has remained at that number all week. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS


Over is 15-3 in 49ers last 18 games following a bye week.
Over is 8-2 in 49ers last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 10-1 in Cardinals last 11 home games.
Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 games in Week 10.
Over is 7-0 in 49ers last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.




Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 49.5)


* Slot receiver Cole Beasley leads the team in catches (43) and receiving yards (499) and touchdowns, with his club-best fourth score in the last four games coming on Sunday. Fellow wideout Dez Bryant has caught 16 of 41 passes thrown his way, with only one for 19 yards against the battered Browns' secondary last week. "We're chasing something. It's not a one-man show,” Bryant said of Dallas' winning ways. Veteran tight end Jason Witten was the target of choice last week for Prescott, reeling in eight receptions for 134 yards and a touchdown.


* Pittsburgh's potent offense was asleep through three quarters last week as it mustered just 69 yards before Roethlisberger woke up and tossed a touchdown pass to Antonio Brown and rushed for another. While electric Le'Veon Bell is a trusted option out of the backfield, Pittsburgh has struggled to find a consistency in the passing game - outside of Brown - with Martavis Bryant suspended for the season. Sammie Coates has followed a strong start with just four yards in his last three games and fellow wideouts Markus Wheaton (shoulder) and Darrius Heyward-Bey (foot) are nursing injuries. Eli Rogers recorded a team-leading 103 receiving yards - all in the fourth quarter - to show promise after his development had been slowed by both turf toe and a reported disciplinary decision in Week 7 (he was inactive).


LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 2.5-point favorites and has remained there all week. The total opened at 51 and has been bet down a point and a half to the current number of 49.5. Check out the complete line history here.


TRENDS


Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Under is 8-1 in Cowboys last 9 road games.
Under is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games in Week 10.

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 13


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


GB at TEN 01:00 PM


GB -3.0 *****


O 48.5 *****


DEN at NO 01:00 PM


NO -3.0


U 49.5


ATL at PHI 01:00 PM


ATL +1.0 ( NFC GOM )


MIN at WAS 01:00 PM


WAS -2.5


LA at NYJ 01:00 PM


NYJ +1.0


O 39.0


HOU at JAC 01:00 PM


JAC -2.5


U 42.0


CHI at TB 01:00 PM

CHI -3.0 ( NFC NORTH GOM )


KC at CAR 01:00 PM


CAR -3.0 ( NFC INTERCONFERENCE GAME OF THE DAY )


O 44.0


MIA at SD 04:05 PM


MIA +4.5


O 49.0 *****


DAL at PIT 04:25 PM


DAL +3.0 *****


O 50.0


SF at ARI 04:25 PM


ARI -13.5 ( NFC WEST BLOW OUT )


U 47.0


SEA at NE 08:30 PM


NE -7.5 ( SUNDAY NIGHT GOY )


O 49.5 ( SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR )

 

[CNOTES]

Texans 24, Jaguars 21— Jax is one of three teams (Cards, Giants) not to score on their first drive of a game: their offense has been outscored 7-0 by opponents’ defense on first drive of their nine games. Texans are now 1-3 on road, after losing first three road games by combined score of 84-22. Jaguars have zero takeaways in their last five games (-12).

Chiefs 20, Panthers 17— In their last two games, both wins, KC has one offensive TD, eight FGs, six 3/outs. Carolina led this game 17-6 in 4th quarter, but Newton threw a pick-6, then Panthers fumbled it away again in last minute when game was tied.
Carolina started second half with a 20-play drive that took 10:08 off the clock, but they wound up punting on the drive- they didn’t score in the second half.

Denver 25, Saints 23— One of weirdest endings in NFL history; Saints tied game on a 32-yard TD with 1:22 left, but Broncos blocked PAT, ran it back for the game-winning two points. New Orleans averaged 9.8 yds/pass attempt but turned ball over 4 times (-2) which is most always fatal. Broncos converted 11 of 19 third down plays, had 9-yard edge in field position.

Rams 9, Jets 6— On Hard Knocks this summer, rookie WR Cooper was having issues catching punts, so coach Jeff Fisher stepped in and gave him some tips— Fisher ran punts back when he played. With this game tied 6-6 in 4th and Cooper returning punts for banged-up Austin (leg), Cooper made an excellent catch on a short punt that gave Rams good field position on their own 48. If he lets it bounce, Rams could’ve lost 15-20 yards of field position. From there, LA drove for the game-winning FG. Good coaching helps.
That said, on their last 32 drives, Rams have scored one touchdown, tried six FGs; how much worse could rookie QB Goff really be? LA has four wins; they didn’t score a TD in two of them. The defense could use some help.

Eagles 24, Falcons 15— Philly is 4-0 at home, allowing 38 points, giving up three offensive TDs on 42 drives. Atlanta had scored 106 points in its last three games; holding them to 15 is really impressive. Falcons were 2-11 on 3rd down in this game, ran ball only 13 times for 48 yards.

Redskins 26, Vikings 20— Atlanta started 5-0 last season and missed playoffs; is Minnesota headed in same direction? Vikings have lost four games in a row, their OC quit- they missed PAT after their third TD and then got shut out in second half. Vikings have only two takeaways in last three games. Over is 5-0 in Washington home games.

Titans 47, Packers 25— Tennessee tried onside kick to start game, which didn’t work; still, they are first team since 1986 (Giants) to lead Green Bay by 21 points in first quarter. On their first three drives, Tennessee’s offense ran 17 plays for 236 yards and three TDs- their TE’s ran amok, with over 100 receiving yards and two TDs in first half alone.

Bucs 36, Bears 10— This seems like a good time to point out that NFL’s TV ratings have gone down in every Presidential election year, not just this year, and by as much as 10% in 2000, so things should get back to normal from here on in, at least as far as TV ratings go.
This is an awful loss for the Bears, who didn’t get a first down in the second half- they ran 12 plays for -13 yards in the whole second half. No bueno.

CFL playoffs— Edmonton 24, Hamilton 21 and BC Lions 32, Winnipeg 31.

Dolphins 31, Chargers 24— On his last five drives, Philip Rivers threw four INTs and a TD pass; the 3rd INT was run back for the game-winning Miami TD by Kiko Alonso. San Diego held Ajayi to 79 rushing yards, Over is now 8-2 in Charger games this year; those of us who have NFL Sunday Ticket will miss them next week, their bye week. Miami has won four games in a row.

Cardinals 23, 49ers 20– Kaepernick played well in leading 49ers back to tie game with 1:55 left, but Palmer drove Arizona 69 yards for the winning FG at the gun. Penalty yardage in this game: SF 100, Arizona 10. Cardinals turned ball over four times (-3) but won, which rarely happens.

Cowboys 35, Steelers 30— Pittsburgh went for two points four times and went 0-4. What is the reason for doing it after your first two TDs of the game? Dallas has won eight in row for first time since 1977; there were seven lead changes in this game. Pittsburgh/Green Bay both have Hall of Fame QBs and are both 4-5; go figure.

 

[CNOTES]

Just one hell of day.....I might have to give it a rest for the time being.......


NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:


10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
11/03/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
11/06/2016 13-8-1 61.90% +2100
11/07/2016 0-1-1 0.00% -550
11/10/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/13/2016 9-12-0 42.86% -2100


WLT PCT UNITS
ATS Picks 81-104-6 43.78% -16700


O/U Picks 81-103-5 44.02% -16150


Triple Plays:..... 27 - 39 - 2


NFC EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM.....0 - 1......... ( NY GIANTS THUMPS PHILLY )
NFL GAME OF THE YEAR.................0 - 0 -1 ( CAROLINA PUSHES WITH RAMS )
TOTAL OF THE DAY .......................1 - 0.....( INDY/GB GOES OVER 53 )
NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GOY..............,..0 - 1.....( RAIDERS STOMP BRONCOS )
INTERCONFERENCE GOD.............,...0 - 1,,,,,( DENVER UPSET SAINTS )
NFC GOM................................,....0 - 1.....( PHILLY UPENDS ATLANTA )
NFC NORTH GOM...........................0 - 1......( TAMPA BAY STOMPS THE BEARS)
NFC WEST BLOW OUT.....................0 - 1 .... ( ARIZONA BARELY BEATS THE 9ERS)
SUNDAY NIGHT INTERCONFERENCE GOY....0 - 1 ( SEATTLE UPSETS NEW ENGLAND )
SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR 1 - 0 ,,,,,,( WELL OVER THE 49 PTS....55 PTS )

 

[CNOTES]

Books win big in Week 10
November 14, 2016


The excitement level from Week 10 is going to be hard for the NFL to top this season. It had just about everything you can think of when dreaming up the wildest, most improbable fantastic finishes. There was enough to last an entire season crammed into one Sunday. However, bettors might disagree about the excitement factor just because Week 10 saw their increased bankroll from the past three weeks dwindle.


"It's probably our best day of the season and could get better if the Seahawks cover," said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback, just before kickoff of the titanic Sunday night game clash between Super Bowl 49 participants.


"Just look at that over there," he said motioning towards the Mirage sports book counter where lines usually form following the late afternoon results. "That kind of tells you how the day went. Not many are cashing after those late games."


Favorites would go 3-9 against-the-spread on the day with eight underdogs winning outright. The only team the public piled on that cashed was the Cowboys in their thrilling 35-30 win at Pittsburgh as three-point underdogs that featured eight lead changes. It was the eighth straight cover for the Cowboys and the first time they've won eight straight since 1977, which ended with a win over Denver in the Super Bowl. How about those Cowboys! They have the best record in the NFL using a back-up rookie quarterback.


"The room was jam packed with the crowd mostly rooting for Dallas," said Stoneback, "and they all erupted when (Ezekiel) Elliott ran in for the last second TD. You would have thought we would have lost with so much support, and we did have a 3-to-1 ratio on tickets written on them, but we had more money on the Steelers. We took a nice six-figure wager on the Steelers -2 on Tuesday."


The problem for bettors siding with Dallas is that they didn't have many other selections go their way to complete a winning parlay. The season long reliable trend of betting against the 49ers didn't work out so well Sunday as they took the Cardinals, who were favored by 14-points, to the final seconds until Arizona got a field goal to win 23-20. The 49ers had failed to cover seven straight games prior to Sunday.


"The 49ers covering was probably our best decision of the afternoon," said Stoneback.


One of the many fantastic finishes that was big for the sports books saw the Dolphins win 31-24 at San Diego (-4) with Kiko Alonso intercepting a Philip Rivers pass and returning it 60 yards for the game-winning touchdown with just 1:01 remaining. Rivers would throw his fourth interception of the game a few moments later to ice the game for Miami. William Hill sports books had 77 percent of all ticket written on the game siding with the Chargers.


Perhaps the most improbable finish of the day was in New Orleans where the Saints (-3) had scored what appeared to be the winning TD with 1:28 left. All that was left to do to take the lead was kick the extra-point. However, Denver would not only block the kick, but they'd pick up the ball and return for two points of their own to take a 25-23 lead and win the game. Action was split on this one, but the 'over' (50.5) was a popular choice.


The Panthers (-3) blew a 17-3 lead heading into the fourth-quarter where a lifeless Kansas City squad would reel off 17 unanswered points to win 20-17. It was all aided by an Eric Berry 42-yard Interception return for a TD. William Hill books had 60 percent of the cash on this game taking the Panthers, who appeared to be getting back to their 2015 ways, but are 3-6, and still in last place of the NFC South.


One of the few blowouts on the day happened against a team the majority supported. The Packers were -3 at Tennessee, but the Titans jumped all over the Packers swiss cheese defense to a 21-0 first-quarter lead and an eventual 47-25 win.


Even sharp money hard a hard time cashing as they sided with Jacksonville (-3) and Chicago (-3) all week to move the spread drastically. The Texans would win 24-21 at Jacksonville while the Bears would lose 36-10 at Tampa Bay.


It would seem fitting that the finale on the day would come down to a last second goal line stand between the top two rated teams in the league. William books saw 78 percent of the tickets written on the Patriots (-8) over the visiting Seahawks just because New England had gone 7-1 ATS this season and Tom Brady was 4-0 ATS since his return from suspension. But Brady wouldn't throw a TD pass in the Seahawks dramatic 31-24 win with Russell Wilson having his best game of the season -- 348 yards passing and three TDs.


"I wouldn't call it (Week 10) our biggest win of season, but it's right up there," South Point sports book director Chris Andrews would say following the Seahawks win.


Let's just call it the most exciting day of the season and go back to the drawing board for Week 11.

 

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 10
November 14, 2016


Overall Notes


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 10 RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs


Straight Up 5-8


Against the Spread 4-9


Wager Home-Away


Straight Up 6-7


Against the Spread 5-8


Wager Totals (O/U)


Over-Under 7-6


The largest underdogs to win straight up


Seahawks (+7.5, ML +290) at Patriots, 31-24
Dolphins (+4.5, ML +170) at Chargers, 31-24


The largest favorite to cover


Ravens (-7.5) vs. Browns, 28-7

Cowboy Up


-- The Dallas Cowboys picked up an entertaining 35-30 win on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers, staying hot against the number. Dallas has covered eight straight games, improving to 8-0-1 ATS on the season. That includes a 5-0 SU/ATS mark away from Jerry World. They're also 3-0 SU/ATS against the AFC North Division, and they'll play their fourth and final game against that division when the Cincinnati Bengals come to town.


Not Feeling Minnesota


-- The Minnesota Vikings opened the season 5-0 SU/ATS, but after a 26-20 setback on the road against the Washington Redskins the Vikings slipped to 0-4 SU/ATS over the past four outings. The Vikings will look to slap the brakes on their losing streak when the Arizona Cardinals visit Minnesota's palacial new stadium in the Twin Cities in Week 11.
Total Recall


-- The 'over' was in the majority again in Week 10, edging out the 'under' 7-6 with one left to play Monday. In three AFC battles the 'over' edged the 'under' 2-1. In four NFC clashes the 'over/under' split 2-2. In six AFC vs. NFC games the 'over/under' managed a 3-3 mark heading into Monday's clash between Cincinnati-N.Y. Giants. Through the first nine weeks of NFL action the 'over' is 80-64 (55.6%).


-- Four of the six games with a total of 48.5 or more hit the 'over', including Dallas-Pittsburgh (50.5) and Seattle-New England (49.5), the two highest totals on the board. For the second consecutive weekend the highest-scoring game of the week featured the Tennessee Titans, who picked up a 47-25 win over the visiting Green Bay Packers. There have been a total of 150 points in the past two games the Titans have been involved.


-- The game with the lowest total of the weekend, the game between Los Angeles-N.Y. Jets (39) easily hit with just 15 total points.If you're been following Chris David's Total Talk, you'll know games featuring Pacific Time Zone teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone entered the week with a 10-0 'over' mark. The Rams and Jets ended up as the first 'under' in 11 games, but the Seahawks-Patriots game was an 'over' to push that trend to 11-1 on the season.


-- The 'over/under' is 1-1 through two primetime games with the Cincinnati-N.Y. Giants (47.5) yet to go. Officially, the 'over' is 15-15 (50.0%) through 30 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.




Injury Report


-- Bears RB Jordan Howard (ankle/Achilles') said after the game that he was fine, but head coach John Fox said Howard suffered an ankle or Achilles' injury in Sunday's loss at Tampa Bay.


-- Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald (knee) checked out of the win against San Francisco briefly, but was able to finish up. However, after the game it was reported he will need an MRI Monday for a sore knee.


-- Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski (head) was forced out for a handful of plays after a hard, but clean, hit in the Sunday night game against the Seahawks.


Looking Ahead


-- The Saints and Panthers meet for the second time this season, this time on Thursday Night Football. The Week 6 battle in New Orleans resulted in a 41-38 Saints victory, the fourth straight 'over' in the past four meetings in the series. Carolina has won three of the past five meetings, but the Panthers are 1-4 ATS during the span. The 'over' is 8-3 in the past 11 in the series.


-- The winless Browns host the Steelers in Week 11, and they haven't had a lot of success against their rivals from western Pennsylvania in recent seasons. Cleveland has won just three of the past 25 meetings in this series, and they're 9-15-1 ATS during the span. The Browns are 5-3 ATS in their past eight at home against the Steelers while the 'under' has cashed in six of those outings. The 'under' is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings overall.


-- The Colts and Titans will do battle for the second time this season. Indianapolis went down to Nashville and won 34-26 in Week 7, covering with an 'over' result. The Colts have won 10 straight meetings dating back to Oct. 30, 2011, going 9-1 ATS during the span. Indianapolis has really dominated at home, winning eight straight meetings dating back to Dec. 30, 2007. The Colts have covered five in a row at home, and they're 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings in Indy. The 'over' has hit in three straight meetings, and four of the past five. The 'over' is also 3-1 in the past four battles at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indy.

 

[CNOTES]

Bengals, Giants square off
November 11, 2016


Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. New York Giants (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS)


Sportsbook.ag Odds: Cincinnati (-1); Total Set at 47.5


This MNF line has already seen plenty of movement this week as the New York Giants opened up in the -3 range, as there still appears to be very few believers in Eli and company. The Bengals do have that angle that every better loves to back in that they are coming off their bye week, but I wouldn't be so quick to jump on that angle here as it looks like everyone has been quick to do.


The Bengals are a team that have definitely underperformed relative to their preseason expectations and while there still is time for this team to turn it around, just one win in their last four contests is a quite worrisome if I was looking to back the Bengals here.


New York enters this prime time showdown having won three straight and are right back on the Cowboys heels in the NFC East. QB Eli Manning still had some turnover issues in the win vs. Philly last week, and the Giants are still searching for a running game, but to see bettors flock to go against a team on a three-game winning streak is a little surprising.


It's even more surprising when you see that the Bengals have only beaten a winless Cleveland team and Miami – before they got hot – since Week 2. Cincinnati is also 0-3 SU and ATS in road games since Week 2 and that's what makes this line move so intriguing.


Are bettors unwilling to let go of their preseason projections of Cincinnati competing for an AFC North crown? Are they simply supporting the rested team here? Are all the Bengals bets more of a play against the Giants? Or is it a combination of all those factors and even more?


For bettors that haven't touched or broken down this game yet, it's nearly impossible to take the Bengals now. All the line value is gone with this game moving to basically a pick'em and we will likely see some buyback on this game by the time Monday rolls around.


Yet, I have a tough time believing this move in the first place as Marvin Lewis is arguably one of the worst coaches in the league in terms of clock management, game planning, and predictability with play-calling in downs and distance, and it feels like the rest of the league has finally caught on to that 100%.


Lewis has kept his post as the head man in Cincinnati this long in spite of himself as he's had been bailed out by quite a bit of talent around him – on the field and in the coaching ranks – as there are three of his recent former assistant coaches now leading teams:


Mike Zimmer (Minnesota), Jay Gruden (Washington), and Hue Jackson (Cleveland). Jackson has had a rough year in across the state in Ohio, but the Browns simply don't have NFL-calibre talent on their roster.


Zimmer and Gruden have taken their respective clubs to the playoffs recently, and without any of those guys around anymore in Cincinnati, this 3-4-1 SU team might be the true reflection of a Marvin Lewis coached squad when he doesn't have quality help.


Secondly, betting against streaks is a risky proposition and with this line now at pick'em, you would be betting against New York's three-game winning streak. For all the turnovers Eli has caused, and all the lack of luck the Giants defense has had in forcing turnovers – especially recovering fumbles, this team is still finding ways to win. For years the Giants typically would find ways to lose these tight games (aside from their Super Bowl years) and this year is shaping up much differently.


One week it's the offense making a clutch late drive to close out things like when they beat Baltimore a few weeks back, and last week it was the defense stepping up in the final minutes to finish off the Eagles. The perception of the Giants may still be overwhelmingly negative, hence the line move already on this contest, but the win/loss column says otherwise.


If you've followed along with my NFL betting previews all season long you'll know I'm never afraid to go against the consensus, and this looks to be another one of those games. The Bengals are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record and with the Giants at home in a prime time atmosphere you've got to like their chances.


If this game was in Cincinnati, this new line suggests that the Bengals would be -6 or -7 against New York and that's absurd.

 

[CNOTES]

MNF - Bengals at Giants
November 12, 2016


The Week 10 finale in the NFL pits an interconference battle between the Bengals and Giants at Met Life Stadium. Cincinnati is playing its second straight NFC East opponent following its tie in London against Washington, while New York is right in the midst of the Wild Card race following a three-game winning streak.


LAST WEEK


The Bengals sat through the bye week in Week 9, but we’ll rewind an extra week back to Week 8. Cincinnati finished in a 27-27 tie against Washington in London as the Bengals failed to reach the .500 mark. The Bengals fell to 3-4-1 SU and 3-5 ATS as Marvin Lewis’ team couldn’t hold onto a 10-point third quarter lead. Kirk Cousins torched Cincinnati’s defense for 458 yards, compared to 284 yards passing from Bengals’ quarterback Andy Dalton. The Bengals picked up three touchdowns on the ground, including 152 yards rushing, the third straight game Cincinnati has rushed for at least 120 yards.

The Giants improved to 2-1 inside the NFC East after holding off the Eagles, 28-23 to cash as three-point home favorites. Eli Manning put up only 257 yards passing, but threw four touchdowns for the Giants, including a pair of scoring connections with Odell Beckham, Jr. New York’s ground game has been grounded for much of the season as the Giants accumulated only 54 yards on 24 carries, the fifth straight game they have been limited to 80 yards or fewer.


PRIMETIME PROBLEMS


Since 2012, the Bengals have struggled under the lights in the regular season by posting a 5-10 SU and 7-8 ATS record. Cincinnati picked up a victory in its only primetime opportunity this season in Week 4 against Miami, but the Bengals are winless in their last three road contests played on Monday night. Last season, the Bengals split a pair of Monday nighters, including a 10-6 loss to Houston as 10-point home favorites.


GIANT SCORING


Since cashing the UNDER in their home opener against the Saints in Week 2, New York has easily eclipsed the OVER in each of its past three contests at Met Life Stadium. The Giants and their opponent have combined for at least 50 points in each of the last three home contests even though the closing totals were 47, 42 ½, and 42 ½. Monday’s total sits at 48 at Sportsbook.ag, as the Giants are 4-1 to the UNDER on totals of 44 ½ and higher.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened the Giants as two-point home favorites. However, that line has swung in Cincinnati’s favor as the Bengals are listed as one-point chalk at many sports books, including the Westgate. The total opened at 47 and is hovering between 47 and 48 at most outlets.


SERIES HISTORY


The Bengals are making their first ever trip to Met Life Stadium as Cincinnati last visited New York and the Meadowlands in 2008 as 13-point underdogs. Cincinnati cashed in a 26-23 overtime loss as the road team has never won in this series. The Bengals defeated the Giants in their last matchup in 2012 as 3 ½-point home underdogs, 31-13. Dalton torched New York for four touchdowns, while the Bengals’ defense intercepted Manning twice.


HANDICAPPER’S CORNER


VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says that even though the Giants are in the playoff race, there are some negative numbers against them. “The Giants own a negative scoring differential on the season as all five wins have come by seven or fewer points, but New York is currently in a great position as if they can win Monday night the next two games are against the Bears and Browns and 8-3 is a very realistic possibility ahead of a difficult five-game stretch to close the season in December,” Nelson notes.


Since nobody is pulling away in the AFC North, Nelson comments that the Bengals can still finish atop their division if they take care of business, “The Bengals still have four division games remaining including both meetings with the Ravens ahead and no team left on Cincinnati’s schedule has a record better than 5-3 as a great second half run is possible for the 2015 division champions. Cincinnati is 1-3 on the road this season with disappointing numbers, but the three road losses came at Pittsburgh, Dallas, and New England for a formidable slate.”


PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook


Cincinnati


A. Dalton – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (+110)
1 ½ - UNDER (-130)


A.J. Green – Total Receiving Yards
87 ½ - OVER (-110)
87 ½ - UNDER (-110)


New York


E. Manning - Total Completions
23 ½ - OVER (-110)
23 ½ - UNDER (-110)


E. Manning – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (-130)
1 ½ - UNDER (+110)


O. Beckham, Jr. – Total Receiving Yards
85 ½ - OVER (-110)
85 ½ - UNDER (-110)

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Monday, November 14


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football betting preview: Bengals at Giants
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The Giants have rebounded from a three-game skid by sandwiching a pair of home wins around a "road" victory at London.


Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (+1, 47)


Trying to keep pace with the surprising Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East, the New York Giants go for their fourth consecutive victory when they host the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night. The Giants have rebounded from a three-game skid by sandwiching a pair of home wins around a "road" victory at London to remain two games off the division lead.


New York is coming off a 28-23 victory over Philadelphia, continuing a trend of being able to win the close games -- all five victories have come by a margin of 20 points. "We're getting better day by day," Giants star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. said. "Right now we're in a good spot. Just got to keep winning." Prior to last week's bye, Cincinnati played in London and came away with a 27-27 tie with Washington, which posted a 29-27 win at New York in Week 3. The Bengals, who are looking up at first-place Baltimore (5-4) in the AFC North, have been held to 17 points or fewer in each of its losses.


TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.


LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened the betting week as 2.5-point home favorites but early action on the Bengals flipped that line to the Bengals as one-point road faves. The total opened at 47 and remains at that number as of Sunday evening. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies for opening kickoff, increasing cloud as the opening half progresses and a 60 percent chance of rain as the game moves into the second half. Temperatures will be around 50 degrees with barely a whisper of wind (1-2 mph).


INJURY REPORT:


Bengals - DE W. Gilberry (probable, personal), LB V. Burfict (probable, knee), WR J. Wright (questionable, hamstring), DE M. Johnson (questionable, calf), DT P. Sims (questionable, ribs), DT B. Thompson (questionable, knee), HB C. Peerman (questionable, arm), LB R. Maualuga (out, leg), CB W. Jackson III (I-R, pectoral), DT M. Hardison (I-R, shoulder), DT A. Billings (I-R, knee).


Giants - S A. Adams (questionable, shoulder), QB R. Nassib (questionable, elbow), DE K. Wynn (questionable, concussion), WR V. Cruz (doubful, ankle), G J. Pugh (early Dec, knee), S D. Thompson (I-R, foot), RB S. Vereen (elig week 12, tricep), S M. Thompson (I-R, knee), FB N. Whitlock (I-R, foot), LB J. Thomas (I-R, knee), FB W. Johnson (I-R, stinger), TE M. LaCosse (I-R, knee).


ABOUT THE BENGALS (3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 O/U): Quarterback Andy Dalton has a streak of four straight games with a 100-plus passer rating snapped in London, but he has thrown for 2,349 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. Star wide receiver A.J. Green is second in the NFL with 896 yards, including three games with at least 169 yards, and the offense received an added boost with the return of tight end Tyler Eifert against the Redskins. Eifert had 13 touchdowns last season and showed what a difference-maker he can be in his first start with nine catches for 102 yards and a score. Cincinnati's defense has been vulnerable through the air, allowing an average of 262.4 yards.


ABOUT THE GIANTS (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS, 3-5 O/U): Quarterback Eli Manning is coming off a four-touchdown performance against Philadelphia, the third time he has tossed at least three scoring passes in a game this season, but he also was picked off twice for the third time. Like Cincinnati, the Giants have a stud wideout in Beckham, who caught a pair of scoring passes against the Eagles to give him five in the past four games. The biggest problem for the Giants has been a stagnant running game led by Rashad Jennings that ranks last in the league with a meager average of 68.3 yards per game. Rookie Paul Perkins could see more time this week to help work the clock and protect a defense that yields 277.4 yards passing.


TRENDS:


Bengals are 0-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Giants are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Under is 8-1 in Bengals last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 home games.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.


CONSENSUS: The home team New York Giants are picking up 59 percent of the point spread action and Over is grabbing 68 percent of the totals wagers.

 

[CNOTES]

Close Calls - Week 10
November 16, 2016


Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in Week 10 of the NFL regular season.


Houston Texans (+3) 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 21 (42): Houston led 21-10 heading into the fourth quarter, but the Jaguars managed to get within three points just ahead of the two-minute warning with a touchdown and a successful two-point conversion. Disaster nearly struck the Texans with a muffed kickoff catch, Houston recovered but was buried on the 8-yard line and Jacksonville had two timeouts and the two-minute warning. On third-and-five, Brock Osweiler hit DeAndre Hopkins for a crucial first down to effectively end the game.


Kansas City Chiefs (+3) 20, Carolina Panthers 17 (44): The Panthers were in control up 17-3 heading into the fourth quarter. The defense got a stop to hold the Chiefs to a short field goal, but the game turned with a 42-yard interception return touchdown from Eric Berry. The Chiefs successfully went for two and all of sudden it was a three-point game, right even with the spread. Kansas City tied the game with about four minutes to go before both teams traded punts. Getting the ball back with just 29 seconds left, the Panthers were aggressive and threw for a solid gain to Kelvin Benjamin but fighting for extra yards he took a shot to dislodge the ball just before his knee touched. The Chiefs knocked in the game-winning field goal for a 20-0 run to close the game and an improbable win and cover despite very little offensive production.


Denver Broncos (+3) 25, New Orleans Saints 23 (50): The Saints rallied from a 10-0 deficit to lead 17-10 by the start of the fourth quarter taking advantage of a short field after an interception. Denver missed a field goal on its next possession, but the Broncos got the ball back quickly after a fumble. Denver converted the turnover into a game-tying touchdown with about nine minutes to go in the game. Denver’s defense held and a short field goal put Denver up by three with just over three minutes to go. Another fumble put the Broncos right back in the red zone, but they couldn’t put the game away as they went up by just six with another field goal. Those with Denver +3 felt safe at that point even after the Saints hit a big play in the final two minutes to tie the game with a touchdown. Incredibly, the extra point attempt was blocked and returned for a defensive conversion but on replay it looked very possible that Will Parks stepped out of bounds, meaning a tie game and all spread and total results would still be in play with overtime possible. On review, the defensive conversion held with no clear angle to overturn it and the Saints didn’t have any timeouts and failed on the on-side kick attempt.


Los Angeles Rams (-1) 9, New York Jets 6 (38): For a league looking to boost ratings, it was fortunate this game was not in a prime timeslot as the Rams and Jets combined for 15 punts and 15 points. The Jets missed an extra point after a second quarter touchdown and thus it was a 6-6 tie through three quarters. Field position proved critical and a marginal punt early in the final frame put the Rams at their own 48-yard line to start drive that eventually lasted 10 plays despite netting just 36 yards. It was enough for the go-ahead field goal with below seven minutes to go. An interception ended the final New York threat just after the two-minute warning.


Philadelphia Eagles (-2) 24, Atlanta Falcons 15 (48½): The spread on this game jumped around all week and various results were possible as the Eagles led 10-9 through three quarters. A field goal made it 13-9, but Atlanta hit a 76-yard pass play to take a 15-13 lead, missing on the extra point try. Philadelphia got eight points with a 76-yard touchdown drive to lead 21-15 with fewer than seven minutes remaining though the Falcons were still a threat with only a six point disadvantage. With over two minutes to go, the Falcons aggressively went for it on fourth-and-5 from their own 40. That failure gave the Eagles a field goal 22 seconds later as Atlanta used its timeouts and fell behind by nine. The Falcons were intercepted on their last effort as the Eagles held on.


Washington Redskins (-2½) 26, Minnesota Vikings 20 (42): Down 14-0 early, the struggling Vikings offense scored 20 points in six minutes at the end of the first half, but a missed extra point loomed large. Washington tied the game through three quarters with a pair of field goals and took a three-point lead past the home favorite spread with nine minutes to go. Minnesota went 49 yards on its next possession, but wound up with an interception and Washington added three more points to lead by six, leaving the door open with more than two minutes remaining. The Vikings had a 12-play drive down to the Washington 21-yard line before going backwards in the final seconds.


Miami Dolphins (+4) 31, San Diego Chargers 24 (49): The Chargers saw a 10-0 edge disappear as Miami led 21-17 through three quarters. That lead held with two costly San Diego interceptions including one in the end zone as the Chargers failed to take advantage of a lot of extra opportunities with seven first downs via penalty. Miami could not pull away further as after getting a questionable third down conversion via penalty the Chargers broke a big 51-yard pass play to go in front 24-21. Miami hit their own big play down to the San Diego 10-yard line with about four minutes to go, but had to settle for a field goal to tie the game, leaving all outcomes in play, though those on the ‘over’ were in a great position. San Diego approached midfield after the two minute warning, but a Philip Rivers pass was returned 60 yards by Kiko Alonso to put Miami up by seven and another interception ended San Diego’s final drive.


Dallas Cowboys (+3) 35, Pittsburgh Steelers 30 (50½): The Steelers trailed 23-18 through three quarters, but a touchdown with eight minutes to go put the Steelers up by one, but for the third time in the game, Pittsburgh failed on a two-point conversion attempt. Dallas answered to go up by five, also missing going for two just after the two minute warning. In just five plays, the Steelers were back in the end zone and again failed going for two it what looked like a critical play for those on the Steelers at -2 or -3. It wound up not mattering as Dallas drove into field goal range in the final seconds and on what surely would have been the final offensive play before a lengthy field goal attempt Ezekiel Elliott surged through the line and wound up with a 32-yard touchdown run as Dallas won by five.


Seattle Seahawks (+7½) 31, New England Patriots 24 (49½): New England led 24-22 early in the fourth quarter before Seattle took a one-point advantage just past the nine-minute mark. After a New England fumble from Julian Edelman, the Seahawks went 48 yards to go up 31-24 and opted to go for two, leaving the door open for those that had the Patriots at -7. In an amazing finish, the Patriots wound up basically where Seattle was late in the Super Bowl between these teams with first-and-goal from the 2-yard line in the final minute, though in this case the Patriots were looking to extend the game not win it. Seattle’s defense held with a mishandled snap costing the Patriots a play and the officials didn’t throw the flag amidst a lot of contact on New England’s final play.


New York Giants (PK) 21, Cincinnati Bengals 20 (49½): The Bengals led 20-14 through three quarters in a game where an opening line of New York -3 flipped to Cincinnati -1 before settling at a pick. Early in the fourth quarter with the Giants down six, Ben McAdoo made a bold call to go for it on fourth-and-goal from the 3-yard line rather than kicking a field goal and the Giants were successful, taking a one-point lead. Interceptions ended the next drives for both teams and Cincinnati wound up punting on fourth-and-long from their own 16, hoping to get another chance. New York converted a big third down play ahead of the two-minute warning and eventually took a knee at the Cincinnati 21-yard line as your result depended a bit on your timing and location with the one-point win for the Giants.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 11
November 16, 2016




THURSDAY, NOV. 17
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA (NBC/NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Saints have covered last three meetings, including wild 41-38 win on Oct. 16 at Superdome. Last four “over” in series, Saints “over” 25-16 since 2014. Brees also 5-0 as dog TY, 12-3-1 in role since 2014!
Tech Edge: Saints and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


SUNDAY, NOV. 20
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Indy won again vs. Titans on Oct. 23, that’s now 10 SU wins in a row (7-2-1 vs. line) in series for Colts. Indy “over” 8-2 last 10 since late LY, Tenn. also “over” 11-2 last 13 since late 2015, “overs” 6-2 last 8 in series.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Colts, based on “totals” and series trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
JACKSONVILLE at DETROIT (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags 3-2 vs. line away TY in a bit of improvement from recent seasons. Lions 1-2-1 as home chalk TY but 5-2-1 last 8 vs. spread at Ford Field.
Tech Edge: Slight to Lions, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TAMPA BAY at KANSAS CITY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs “over” 9-3 last 12 since late 2015, also 3-1 SU and vs. line away TY. Andy Reid only 1-3 vs. line at Arrowhead TY and 1-6 last 7 as host since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Bucs and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CHICAGO at NY GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
G-Men 4-0-1 vs. line last four after Cincy win on Monday. G-Men also “over” 5-1 last six at MetLife Stadium. Bears only 3-11 last 14 on board and “over” 7-4 last 11 on road.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Giants, based on “totals” and team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ARIZONA at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
After covering 19 of 22, Vikings have now lost and failed to cover four straight. Zimmer “under” 8-3 last 11 since late 2015. Cards 1-3 vs. line last four away and “under” 8-3 last 11 regular season.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BUFFALO at CINCINNATI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
After Monday loss vs. Giants., Cincy just 2-7 vs. line TY. Rex Ryan “over” 7-2 in 2016.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bills and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BALTIMORE at DALLAS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dak 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 vs. line TY. Ravens have now won and covered two straight after dropping four in a row SU and vs. line. Ravens 14-9 last 23 as dog. Harbaugh also “under” 8-3 last 11 since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Cowboys and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Browns now no covers last four TY after putting up some good fights, now 5-15-1 last 21 on board. Also “under” last two after Hue Jackson teams were “over” 12-3 dating to his Oakland year in 2011. Tomlin no wins or covers last four TY and only 1-3 as visitor. Steel also “under” 9-3 last 12 since late LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Steel and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MIAMI at LOS ANGELES (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Rams “under” 18-7-1 since late 2014. Miami four straight wins and covers.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Dolphins, based on “totals” and team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ENGLAND at SAN FRANCISCO (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Niners covered last week but 1-7 vs. line last eight TY. Chip also “over” 6-3 TY and 11-4 last 15 dating to late last season with Eagles.
Tech Edge: Belichick and “over,” based on team and “totals” trendss.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PHILADELPHIA at SEATTLE (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Seahawks “over” 7-2-1 last ten at home, though 1-4 vs. spread last five at CenturyLink since late LY.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
GREEN BAY at WASHINGTON (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Pack only 6-12 vs. spread last 18 reg.-season games. Note GB 1-8 as reg.-season dog since 2013. Skins 5-1-1 SU, 6-1 vs. line last seven games TY, 10-3 last 13 vs. spread in reg. season since late 2015. Skins also “over” 12-2 last 14 since late LY.
Tech Edge: Skins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

MONDAY, NOV. 21
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON vs. OAKLAND at Mexico City (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Though technically not a visitor, Raiders 5-0 SU and vs. line away TY, 11-2 vs. spread away for Del Rio. Oakland “over” 7-2 TY.
Tech Edge: Raiders and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

 

[CNOTES]

Books win big in Week 10
November 14, 2016


The excitement level from Week 10 is going to be hard for the NFL to top this season. It had just about everything you can think of when dreaming up the wildest, most improbable fantastic finishes. There was enough to last an entire season crammed into one Sunday. However, bettors might disagree about the excitement factor just because Week 10 saw their increased bankroll from the past three weeks dwindle.


"It's probably our best day of the season and could get better if the Seahawks cover," said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback, just before kickoff of the titanic Sunday night game clash between Super Bowl 49 participants.


"Just look at that over there," he said motioning towards the Mirage sports book counter where lines usually form following the late afternoon results. "That kind of tells you how the day went. Not many are cashing after those late games."


Favorites would go 3-9 against-the-spread on the day with eight underdogs winning outright. The only team the public piled on that cashed was the Cowboys in their thrilling 35-30 win at Pittsburgh as three-point underdogs that featured eight lead changes. It was the eighth straight cover for the Cowboys and the first time they've won eight straight since 1977, which ended with a win over Denver in the Super Bowl. How about those Cowboys! They have the best record in the NFL using a back-up rookie quarterback.


"The room was jam packed with the crowd mostly rooting for Dallas," said Stoneback, "and they all erupted when (Ezekiel) Elliott ran in for the last second TD. You would have thought we would have lost with so much support, and we did have a 3-to-1 ratio on tickets written on them, but we had more money on the Steelers. We took a nice six-figure wager on the Steelers -2 on Tuesday."


The problem for bettors siding with Dallas is that they didn't have many other selections go their way to complete a winning parlay. The season long reliable trend of betting against the 49ers didn't work out so well Sunday as they took the Cardinals, who were favored by 14-points, to the final seconds until Arizona got a field goal to win 23-20. The 49ers had failed to cover seven straight games prior to Sunday.


"The 49ers covering was probably our best decision of the afternoon," said Stoneback.


One of the many fantastic finishes that was big for the sports books saw the Dolphins win 31-24 at San Diego (-4) with Kiko Alonso intercepting a Philip Rivers pass and returning it 60 yards for the game-winning touchdown with just 1:01 remaining. Rivers would throw his fourth interception of the game a few moments later to ice the game for Miami. William Hill sports books had 77 percent of all ticket written on the game siding with the Chargers.


Perhaps the most improbable finish of the day was in New Orleans where the Saints (-3) had scored what appeared to be the winning TD with 1:28 left. All that was left to do to take the lead was kick the extra-point. However, Denver would not only block the kick, but they'd pick up the ball and return for two points of their own to take a 25-23 lead and win the game. Action was split on this one, but the 'over' (50.5) was a popular choice.


The Panthers (-3) blew a 17-3 lead heading into the fourth-quarter where a lifeless Kansas City squad would reel off 17 unanswered points to win 20-17. It was all aided by an Eric Berry 42-yard Interception return for a TD. William Hill books had 60 percent of the cash on this game taking the Panthers, who appeared to be getting back to their 2015 ways, but are 3-6, and still in last place of the NFC South.


One of the few blowouts on the day happened against a team the majority supported. The Packers were -3 at Tennessee, but the Titans jumped all over the Packers swiss cheese defense to a 21-0 first-quarter lead and an eventual 47-25 win.


Even sharp money hard a hard time cashing as they sided with Jacksonville (-3) and Chicago (-3) all week to move the spread drastically. The Texans would win 24-21 at Jacksonville while the Bears would lose 36-10 at Tampa Bay.


It would seem fitting that the finale on the day would come down to a last second goal line stand between the top two rated teams in the league. William books saw 78 percent of the tickets written on the Patriots (-8) over the visiting Seahawks just because New England had gone 7-1 ATS this season and Tom Brady was 4-0 ATS since his return from suspension. But Brady wouldn't throw a TD pass in the Seahawks dramatic 31-24 win with Russell Wilson having his best game of the season -- 348 yards passing and three TDs.


"I wouldn't call it (Week 10) our biggest win of season, but it's right up there," South Point sports book director Chris Andrews would say following the Seahawks win.


Let's just call it the most exciting day of the season and go back to the drawing board for Week 11.

 

[CNOTES]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 11
November 16, 2016


After last week's article had the shortest list of underdogs on it, it was a bit surprising to see two of the three win outright and the 49ers doing what they could to make it a clean sweep. Miami and Seattle sealed their victories in the final minute and bettors that weren't afraid to eschew the points and play those money lines were handsomely rewarded.


This week it's a much bigger list of NFL underdogs getting four points or more as we welcome the Cleveland Browns to the festivities once again. As I've been saying for weeks, Cleveland isn't worth a ML play until they prove that they can actually win a game, so no need to go any further on them this week.


Sportsbook.ag Week 11 Underdogs That Qualify


Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5); ML (+220)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5); ML (+230)
Chicago Bears (+7.5); ML (+280)
Baltimore Ravens (+7); ML (+275)
Cleveland Browns (+9); ML (+280)
San Francisco 49ers (+13); ML (+625)
Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5); ML (+250)
Houston Texans (+6); ML (+205)


Right off the bat we can eliminate the 49ers (along with the Browns) as they are in the same category as Cleveland these days and might actually be the worse overall team. San Fran hosts a New England team fresh off their first loss with Tom Brady and there is no way you want to get in front of that train. That leaves six teams on the list and all of them have intriguing matchups this week.


Houston is in Oakland on MNF and get a rested Raiders team off their bye. The Texans won in Jacksonville last week despite QB Brock Osweiler throwing for just 99 yards in the game as his road struggles appear to be never ending. Although Houston did prove they could win on the road last week, there is no way I'm considering a ML bet on them this week.


Speaking of Jacksonville, the Jags are on the road to face another team coming off their bye in the Detroit Lions. The Lions find themselves in a tie for 1st in the NFC North and QB Matthew Stafford has had a resurgent year now that he's looking for the open receiver and not just if Calvin Johnson is open. We could see quite a few points put up here and Jacksonville definitely has a shot.


It's been a few years since the Lions were used to being a winning team and having the bye could have killed much of the momentum they've been building. For all their struggles, Jacksonville has been a much better football team away from home and could surprise some this week.


The other four teams (Baltimore, Chicago, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay) are all on the road as well and have some difficult matchups. But of those four, the two teams I'm willing to roll with on the ML are Baltimore (+275) in Dallas, and Tampa Bay (+230) in Kansas City.


Baltimore gets to take their shot at a Cowboys team that appears to have put the Dak Prescott/Tony Romo story behind them at least for this week. Dallas hasn't lost since Week 1 when they fell to the Giants, but eventually that bubble will burst and this could be the week.


Four of Dallas' last five games have been against tough opponents (Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Cincinnati), and after this Baltimore game they've got a short week for a Thanksgiving matchup with division rival Washington, followed by road games at Minnesota and at NY Giants. All of their success has finally started to see a bit of line inflation with the Cowboys and a veteran Ravens team is more than capable of knocking them off and reopening the Prescott/Romo debate once again.


Tampa Bay got their first home victory of the year a week ago, but this would be more of a play against a Kansas City team that I'm not a big believer in. Carolina basically handed the Chiefs the win on Sunday and the rate at which KC has been forcing/recovering turnovers is unsustainable.


The Bucs are still in the thick of things in the NFC South and a huge win this week could propel them to a final six week stretch where they are playing meaningful football for the first time in years. At +230, the value is there, especially when the Chiefs could be looking past the Bucs a little bit and ahead to their game at Denver in Week 12.


So look for one of Baltimore (+275), Tampa Bay (+230), or Jacksonville (+220) to come away with the outright upset this week as playoff races heat up and the parity in the 2016 NFL season continues to grow.

 

[CNOTES]

Rams QB Keenum unhappy with Goff move
November 16, 2016


THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. (AP) Case Keenum knows his statistics are unimpressive, and he sees the Los Angeles Rams' record hovering below .500. He also realizes the raw economic imperatives faced by an NFL franchise that traded six draft picks to move up to get a quarterback with the No. 1 overall choice.


The team captain still couldn't deny his hurt feelings when the Rams (4-5) promoted Jared Goff into his starting spot this week.


''Honestly, I wasn't happy,'' Keenum said Wednesday after his second practice as the backup to the 22-year-old rookie who will take his first NFL snap Sunday.


''I want to play,'' Keenum said. ''That's why I play football, is to play football, is to be the quarterback, the guy with the ball in his hands. With that being said, I trust Coach (Jeff) Fisher. I trust the coaches and their decision.''


The Rams will get their first look at their future when the Miami Dolphins (5-4) visit the Coliseum. Goff sat behind Keenum for Los Angeles' first nine games, but Goff's progress in practice and the Rams' stagnant offensive performances for Keenum finally persuaded Fisher to make the change.


The timing still surprised Keenum, who led the Rams in a 9-6 victory over the Jets last weekend to snap a four-game skid. Los Angeles is still well within contention for the franchise's first playoff berth since 2004, and the defense has managed to win two games in which the offense couldn't score a touchdown.


While fellow veteran quarterback Nick Foles asked to leave the Rams when Goff was drafted, Keenum embraced a mentoring role. That didn't make the inevitable move any easier to take.


''I guess it was going to happen at some point,'' said Keenum, who has completed 61 percent of his throws with 11 interceptions and nine TDs. ''But in my mind, it was my team. That's the way I viewed it. It was my offense, and I took ownership of it.''


Fisher and offensive coordinator Rob Boras are aware they're turning over the keys to an offense ranked 31st in the league in yardage and dead last with 15.4 points per game. The coaches are attempting to manage expectations even before Goff steps on the field, with Fisher already declaring that Sunday ''is not going to define his career.''


''I'm hoping that the game slows down for him, and I think it will,'' Fisher added. ''But there's going to be tough times in this game, because this is a good defense.''


Fisher made the decision to go with Goff, but Boras is charged with making it work while still keeping Keenum involved in game preparation. Boras plans to focus his play-calls on the passing schemes with which Goff has the most comfort.


''When we drafted Jared where we did, everybody knew what was going to happen,'' Boras said. ''It was just a question of when. We're all competitors, and Case is a competitive person. He's not excited about this, but he also understands the situation. ... My heart goes out to Case. Case is a man. If he gets called on again, he will be ready, because that's who he is.''


Goff's arm strength, size and decisiveness are NFL-caliber, but the Rams acknowledge he had a longer learning curve than some passers because of coach Sonny Dykes' offensive style at California, where the quarterback doesn't often take snaps under center or call plays on the field. Several teammates noted Goff's improved confidence in play-calling since his first weeks in LA.


''He isn't making as many hasty throws that can turn into interceptions,'' guard Rodger Saffold said. ''He's better able to read the defenses in practice, and he's making the play calls. He's been more fluid all around.''


Saffold acknowledged ''a little bit'' of surprise at the timing of the change. He realizes Goff's chances should be better in front of his home crowd, which chanted his name two weeks ago when the offense struggled mightily in a loss to Carolina.


''Well, you got what you wanted,'' Saffold said. ''So be out there in full force and support him, and know there's going to be some growing pains.''

 

[CNOTES]

Titans QB Marcus Mariota on a roll
November 16, 2016


NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) Marcus Mariota is feeling more comfortable with every game that passes with the Tennessee Titans.


Considering how he's performed through just 22 career games, that's news the rest of the AFC South and NFL likely don't want to hear.


''He's just getting better and better as we go,'' Titans wide receiver Rishard Matthews said Wednesday of Mariota. ''I think that's showing. I think he's going to continue to get better. I don't think we've even seen the best of him yet, so that's kind of scary actually.''


Mariota was chosen AFC Offensive Player of the Week Wednesday after throwing for 295 yards and four touchdowns in a 47-25 win over the Green Bay Packers - his third such award.


The quarterback credited tight end Delanie Walker and running back DeMarco Murray along with his offensive line with helping him put up such numbers.


''I'm really just kind of a result of that,'' Mariota said.


With his latest performance, Mariota became the first quarterback in NFL history to score four total touchdowns in six of his first 22 career starts. It's just part of the numbers the No. 2 pick overall out of Oregon in 2015 has been compiling.


Mariota ranks fifth all-time for most TD passes (33) before turning 23 on Oct. 30, behind Drew Bledsoe and Fran Tarkenton (40), Jameis Winston (39) and Josh Freeman (35). Mariota already has two of the franchise's top three games in terms of passer rating, a stat that doesn't include his perfect 158.3 rating in his NFL debut because he didn't throw at least 20 passes.


He also has matched Warren Moon's 1987 franchise record with at least two TD passes in six straight games, a mark Mariota will have a chance to take for himself Sunday when the Titans (5-5) visit Indianapolis (4-5).


Inside an opponent's 20, Mariota is second only to Brady (130.8) in passer rating at 116.4, having thrown 15 touchdowns. Only Drew Brees of New Orleans (19) has more.


Yes, Mariota is getting more and more comfortable each week.


''You're seeing things for a lot of times a second or third time,'' Mariota said. ''As I continue to grow, I think things will continue to slow down.''


Against Green Bay, Mariota completed his first 10 passes for 196 yards and two touchdowns. He finished with a 149.8 passer rating.


Titans coach Mike Mularkey notes how Tennessee needs the quarterback playing at his best level. Mularkey explained how Mariota threw the ball away when needed and didn't try to do too much.


''We've improved in a lot of areas that have helped him get to that point,'' Mularkey said.


Mariota now has 17 touchdowns and three interceptions over his past six games, along with two TDs rushing. That gives him a 119 passer rating second in the NFL to Tom Brady (125.5) in that span. Colts coach Chuck Pagano saw Mariota Oct. 23 when Indianapolis pulled out a 34-26 win and called the quarterback a great game manager.


''He can beat you with his arm. He can beat you with his legs. He's making great decisions ...'' Pagano said. ''And he's being efficient, he's taking care of the football, and they're spreading things around. He's playing with a great deal of confidence right now, as well as everybody around him.''

 

[CNOTES]

Chiefs' Houston could return Sunday
November 16, 2016


KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston could make his season debut this weekend against Tampa Bay.


Coach Andy Reid said Wednesday that the four-time Pro Bowler is ''heading in that direction,'' but he also warned that there is no hurry to get Houston onto the field.


Houston had surgery to repair the ACL in his left knee in February.


The Chiefs were without several players at practice Wednesday. Middle linebacker Derrick Johnson is dealing with spasms in his hamstring, cornerback Marcus Peters has a hip pointer, defensive tackle Jaye Howard has a hip flexor, defensive tackle Dontari Poe has swelling in his knee and wide receiver Jeremy Maclin still has a groin strain.


Reid was not sure which will be available against the Buccaneers.

 

[CNOTES]

Dak Prescott: Status quo for Cowboys after Romo's concession
November 16, 2016


FRISCO, Texas (AP) Dak Prescott's interaction with his new backup wasn't much different after Tony Romo's heartfelt speech that conceded the Cowboys' starting job to the rookie quarterback.


Dallas coach Jason Garrett talked matter-of-factly to the 36-year-old about being No. 2 for the first time since Garrett joined the staff in 2007. And tight end Jason Witten, Romo's best friend on the team, wasn't sure what to make of all the fuss.


While the outside world spent two days pondering Romo's retirement or relocation - sometimes both - the Cowboys had another couple of workdays in a regular week.


''I think that was more for y'all than for me or for this team,'' Prescott said Wednesday , a day after Romo said the 23-year-old had earned the right to keep the job that Romo took from Drew Bledsoe in the middle of the 2006 season.


''We know each other, how we feel about the situation. He's been a great leader, a great model for me to look up to and watch every day. So I'm not surprised.''


Prescott will start Sunday against Baltimore (5-4) looking for a franchise season-best ninth straight win, a run that has carried the Cowboys (8-1) to the best record in the NFL.


Romo, whose back injury in a preseason game created the opening for Prescott, is expected to be his backup for the first time in the four-time Pro Bowler's first game on the active roster since last Thanksgiving.


A surprising success as a fourth-round pick that started training camp as a third-stringer, Prescott frequently said early in the winning streak that he was piloting Romo's team. He can't do that anymore since Romo himself has said otherwise. But Prescott still won't call it his team.


''This is our team,'' said Prescott, who is fourth in the NFL in passer rating with 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions. ''I said that two minutes ago and I'll say it again. Everybody plays a part in our success in what's happened and they'll play a part in the adversity that comes.''


Garrett, a backup to Troy Aikman when the Cowboys were winning Super Bowls in the 1990s, was the new offensive coordinator in Romo's first full season as the starter before replacing fired coach Wade Phillips three years later, in the middle of the 2010 season.


They have been seen together frequently at sporting events in the offseason, but Garrett had little interest in discussing the impact of Romo's words.


''Our focus is getting ready to play the Ravens,'' Garrett said. ''Tony is a professional. He's done an outstanding job preparing himself for whatever role he's been in since I've been here and that's what the expectation is. He's going to embrace it fully.''


Witten was a third-round pick in 2003, the same year Romo signed as an undrafted free agent. He said he was in the weight room when he found out Romo was addressing reporters , and Witten finally let his exasperation show when someone offered the ''what if'' of Romo having taken his last snap with the Cowboys.


''C'mon guys,'' Witten said. ''I mean, he embodies everything you want. He said it. Let's move forward with the football team. I don't think that's entered my mind and it hasn't entered anybody's mind.''


The 34-year-old Witten was mindful of the difficulty Romo faced in making the speech. And while he and Romo share the reality that their careers are winding down, Witten also has become a valuable target for Prescott. Two weeks ago, he had his first 100-yard game in three years.


''We've been together a long time and Tony's been hurt before,'' Witten said. ''Things come up, so I think you just encourage him and he's always felt like a key part of this team.''


NOTES: TE Geoff Swaim was placed on injured reserve with a pectoral injury, ending his season. WR Vince Mayle was elevated from the practice squad and is expected to be used as a tight end. The Cowboys signed G Clay DeBord to the practice squad.

 

[CNOTES]

Tannehill's play has Miami riding high
November 16, 2016


CARLSBAD, Calif. (AP) The Miami Dolphins have won four straight games, are above .500 for the first time under rookie coach Adam Gase, and feature a hot quarterback in Ryan Tannehill.


That's quite a flip from a 1-4 start when Tannehill was the target of countless barbs.


''Everyone criticizes Tannehill,'' said Hall of Famer quarterback Bob Griese, a Dolphins radio analyst. ''But as soon as the offensive line got better, the quarterback got better. And as soon as the running game improved, the quarterback got better. When those things happen, you can throw when you want to and not when you have to.''


Tannehill leads the Dolphins (5-4) against the Rams (4-5) on Sunday in Los Angeles. Miami remained in southern California to practice this week after beating the Chargers last weekend.


The play of Tannehill is a big reason Miami is rolling. During the winning run, Tannehill hasn't turned over the ball.


''I think that's the biggest thing for us right now is taking care of the football (and) not giving the other team opportunities with good field position, and keeping ourselves in the right spot,'' said Tannehill, who's thrown for 2,117 yards, 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions. ''If we can continue doing that, I think we'll continue to win games.''


The Dolphins struggled at the season's onset. But they rebounded and that speaks volumes to Tannehill.


''I'm proud of the way that guys have battled and the way we faced adversity throughout our season, the way we stuck together and kept battling, kept staying on track, working to get better week in and week out,'' Tannehill said. ''That hunger to succeed - that hunger to win - has been huge for us on our team. I'm excited about where we're at right now.''


Tannehill is in the right spot more often thanks to his work with Gase. The two consistently worked on various aspects of Tannehill's game.


''We're constantly trying to improve,'' Tannehill said. ''There's always something, whether it's feet, moving in the pocket - whatever it is. We're constantly trying to improve and get better.''


Tannehill was nearly at his best Sunday when beating the Chargers 31-24. He completed 17 of 24 passes for 240 yards and two touchdowns, posting a 130.6 quarterback rating. It was the second-highest quarterback rating of Tannehill's career behind only his perfect mark of 158.3 vs. Houston on Oct. 25, 2015.


''I think he's done a good job of decision making,'' Gase said. ''Receivers and him are on the same page, along with the tight ends. I think the protection, you know the line has done a really good job as far as keeping him fairly protected. I know he takes some shots, but there are a couple of times where he knows he's going to get hit because he's holding onto it. He's trying to take a shot down the field.''


Tannehill has been sacked just three times in four games as the unit absorbs Gase's offensive system.


''It's not just me,'' Tannehill said. ''It's the O-line giving me time to make good throws, and receivers being in the right spot and making plays on the football. It takes everyone.''